It’s back. Last year I did a weekly newsletter of all the NFL Action. Due to the fact there was only one preseason game last week, I decided to hold off on my newsletter until this week. Again, while I appreciate feedback of things that I failed to mention, please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team. I could do a Newsletter for just one team. Trying to mention every team or player in one newsletter would be impossibility. I hereby present to you a recap of the third week of preseason action.
Standings
AFC EastNFC East
1.New York Jets (1-0) 1.Washington (2-0)
2. Buffalo (0-1) 2. Dallas (0-1)
3. Miami (0-1) 3. NY Giants (0-1)
4. New England (0-1) 4. Philadelphia (0-1)
AFC SouthNFC South
1. Houston (1-0) 1. Carolina (1-0)
2. Jacksonville (1-0) 2. New Orleans (1-0)
3. Tennessee (1-0) 3. Tampa Bay (1-0)
4. Indianapolis (0-2) 4. Atlanta (0-1)
AFC NorthNFC North
1.Baltimore (1-0) 1.Detroit (1-0)
2.Cincinnati (1-0) 2.Chicago (0-1)
3.Pittsburgh (1-0) 3.Green Bay (0-1)
4.Cleveland (0-1) 4.Minnesota (0-1)
AFC WestNFC West
1.Kansas City (1-0) 1. Seattle (1-0)
2. Oakland (1-0) 2. Arizona (0-1)
3. San Diego (1-0) 3. San Fran (0-1)
4. Denver (0-1) 4. St Louis (0-1)
MVP of the Week: It’s hard to go with MVPs of preseason games when the starters are only playing a couple series. Seneca Wallace had a fine opening to the preseason. He went 15 for 20 with 165 yards and 3 touchdown passes with no picks. Julius Peppers did very well for the Panthers. He sacked Sorgi, forced a fumble, and hurried him into an interception on the Colts first 2 possessions. It is crucial he rebound from 2.5 sacks in 2007. Aaron Rodgers also played a very solid game in his first start. He went 9 for 15 for 117 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 pick.
Game of the Week: Most fans aren’t going to watch 4 quarters of a preseason game unless it’s their favorite team. If you are a Panthers or Colts fan you saw a pretty good game. The Panthers took the Colts to OT and won 23-20. Carolina stopped Indy on a 4th and 1 at the Carolina 34 yard line and then proceeded to drive down the field for the game winning field goal.
The Bay of Pigs: Some years the games are not viewable. 10-7 finals. Punting exhibitions and penalty fests. For preseason there weren’t too many really bad games. I would say the worst games would go with a tie between San Fran vs. Oakland and Tampa Bay vs. Miami. Both teams had a half time score of 7-3. The Bucs threw for 181 yards to the Dolphins 134. Tampa out gained Miami on the ground 114-64. That final was 17-6. In Oakland, San Fran out passed Oakland 199-98. Oakland was able to dominate the ground 248-70. However, the result was only a final score of 18-6. Again, for a first preseason games nobody did too badly this week. I’ve seen a lot worse over the years.
The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action): Last year I had this named the Mike Martz Award for the stupid decision made by a player or coach that cost his team the victory. This was in honor of the man that used to challenge 7-yard plays and burn timeouts 3:00 minutes into the 3rd quarter when he was the headman for the Rams. Unless I see something incredibly stupid I tend not to give the award in the preseason. If you saw something like that this week make sure you leave it in the comments section.
Hospital Visit: There were a lot of significant injuries this week. The scariest injury of the weekend went to Denver linebacker Louis Green. Green lay motionless on the Reliant Stadium field for several minutes. Green was put on a stretcher and was moving his fingers and hands as he was taken from the field. Green was released from the hospital and all signs are that he will be okay.
Bobby Engram is going to be sidelined 6-8 weeks with a crack in his shoulder bone. He was the leading receiver from a year ago and the one veteran influence amongst a unit with a lot of question marks. Hasselbeck is going to be playing with a lot of unproven wide receivers. The Seahawks will need Engram back ASAP.
Madieu Williams suffered a neck injury and is expected to miss 6 weeks. That is a big injury for a team that was depending on him to sure up a secondary that ranked 32nd in passing yards allowed.
Charlie Batch was a big injury for the Steelers. He has been with them since 2003 as their backup quarterback. He broke his collarbone in Friday’s game against the Eagles and is expected to miss 10-weeks with that injury. That left Dennis Dixon as the backup, which prompted the signing of Byron Leftwich. If Big Ben were to go down for a couple weeks the Steelers could be in a big bind. Batch has filled in for Big Ben in the past and done very well for the Steelers.
Finally, Shawn Andrews just reported to camp this week, citing depression for the first 17 days he missed. Quoting the AP, "I'm willing to admit that I've been going through a very bad time with depression," Andrews told the Daily News in his first public comments about his training camp absence. "I've finally decided to get professional help. It's not something that blossomed up overnight. I'm on medication, trying to get better."
First of all, you have to hope that he is getting treatment and can recover from this. Situations like this remind you that there are bigger things going on in these guys life other than football. From a football standpoint, having your 2-time Pro Bowl guard out of camp for this reason is never a good thing. They need him to anchor that offensive line. He is a fantastic guard and is a big part of that football team.
Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:
1) Brett Favre – I am ready to be done talking about him from a non-football standpoint. It is good to see him in a camp and start being talked about as a football player and not as a distraction. When he starts making plays good or bad I would love to talk about those.
I think all NFL fans are glad that the soap opera part of the story is over. Now it would be nice if the announcers would move past it. The ESPN crew beat that horse to death on Thursday night with the Cardinals and the Saints. They picked right up where they left off on Monday Night.
When it comes to the NFL I like hearing about Favre more than just about anything, but enough is enough. He isn’t with the Cardinals, Saints, or Packers and to mention his name on every play is a bit silly. While some people will want to evaluate the trade on a play-by-play basis, it is going to take a year or two to ultimately find out if the Packers made the right call. A play-by-play analysis of Rodger’s development is as absurd as mentioning Favre’s name on every play.
2) Aaron Rodgers played solid, but… – I got the feeling that many people in the national media were looking for validation of the trade in that game. It’s a preseason game. Most teams play vanilla defenses. Cincinnati was a terrible defense in 2007.
Even if it meant everything in the world you can’t evaluate trades on a game-by-game basis. Here are two random game lines from two quarterbacks careers:
Both games were played in 2006. Both games were against Detroit where Detroit was the road team. The September game is Rex Grossman in a 34-7 victory over the Lions. The December game is Brett Favre in a 17-9 victory over Detroit. That doesn’t make Rex Grossman a better quarterback than Favre. He just played better against Detroit at home that year. Yet this is how many in the media is choosing to evaluate Rodgers vs. Favre.
Aaron Rodgers is probably under more pressure for a first year starter than any player in the history of the NFL. He is going to be inconsistent this year just like most first year starters are inconsistent. The important part of Monday’s game was to see how he responded to that pressure, something he did not handle well in the Family Night Scrimmage. Other than that you weren’t going to find much out.
Here was my impression of Rodgers. He impressed me in the sense that there wasn’t a throw he couldn’t make, something people have been talking about since he took over for Favre. He had good velocity on the ball. He had command of the offense. He didn’t stray from the pocket like many young quarterbacks do. Fleeing the pocket doesn’t give the play a chance to develop. He needs to feel the pressure a little better. He missed a safety blitz and was hit a number of times. If he does not improve in that area he will not play the full schedule. He also needs to work on his touch and accuracy.
He played a good game against a defense that was not very solid last year. He also did that without Grant or Jennings, two of the Packer’s biggest offensive weapons. My doubts haven’t been so much about his abilities as they have been about his ability to stay healthy.
Regardless of where you are at with this guy it is going to take a lot more games for anyone to make a determination about where he is at as a professional player. Put a check mark on the good column Monday Night. He played a solid game and will need to build off that game and keep getting better. Based on his attitude since March I would expect him to do just that.
3) Larry Johnson looked healthy – This is a guy that gained 1,750 yards on 5.2 yards per carry scoring 20 touchdowns in 2005. He set a NFL record with 416 carries for 1,789 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2006. He never looked right last season gaining 559 yards on 3.5 yards per carry and scoring only 3 touchdowns. He was hurt midseason against the Packers and missed the rest of the season.
Johnson ran for a touchdown on the Chiefs first drive as the Chiefs beat the Bears 24-20. He only had 8 carries for 18 yards, but had a nice run up the middle past Brian Urlacher for 7 yards and scored on a 5-yard touchdown.
People are very concerned about him for a couple reasons. The Chiefs quarterback situation dictates that defenses will concentrate on him. How he responds from a broken foot is going to be key if he is going to get the carries he needs for the Chiefs to be successful.
18 yards on eight carries is nothing to jump up and down about. But he had a couple nice runs and looked to have some of his explosiveness back. The Chiefs aren’t going to work him to hard in the preseason. This was an encouraging sign and is hopefully a sign of things to come.
4) Seattle impressive in opening win – It’s hard to tell what is what in the preseason. However, Seattle had a very nice opening game. They traveled to Minnesota and won 34-17. What was encouraging was 35 carries for 162 yards, which is an average of 4.6 yards per carry.
Again, it’s preseason. The Williams Brothers didn’t play 4 quarters. Allen wasn’t chasing the quarterback the whole time. The scored was tied 17-17 at the half, so the blowout happened with a lot of backups that won’t be on the field come Week 1.
This team is set at quarterback. Brees, Hasselbeck, and Romo are probably the three best quarterbacks in the NFC. Having a good quarterback will keep you in a lot of games. If Seattle can run the ball like they did against the Vikings that will be a big plus. Mare was also 2-2 on field goals and 4-4 on extra points, which is much better than his horrendous 2007 season. How he replaces Brown this year is critical for them winning close games in 2008.
I have questioned how this offense is going to do in 2008. Scoring 34 points on the road with an offense that has some questions is never a bad thing. However, Bobby Engram injuring his shoulder is a very bad thing. That leaves them even weaker at a position that has a lot of question marks. Regardless, Seattle impressed against a good team and deserves credit for that.
5) 49er’s quarterback situation – It was interesting to see JT O’Sullivan starting for the 49ers in their first preseason game. Nolan’s reason for that was that he knows what he has in Smith and Hill and wanted to see O’Sullivan work with the first team. If that doesn’t tell that Smith has hit rock bottom, I don’t know what will. Smith played in only 7 games and threw only 193 passes and you don’t want to see what your $49.5 million dollar investment looks like so that you can see what a 6th round pick from the 2002 draft looks like?
I’ve argued with quite a few 49ers that have argued that it is too early to label Smith a bust. If labeling Bust were the equivalent of a football game it would be 35-14 with about 4:00 minutes left in the game with Team Bust comfortably in the lead. If the coach is worried about what he has in JT O’Sullivan that is an obvious indicator that he isn’t too high on Alex Smith.
The reason O’Sullivan is getting a look is because he played in Detroit last year, which is where Martz coached. O’Sullivan has the best knowledge of the offense. I would not be shocked if he ends up starting the season as the number one quarterback for the 49ers.
A Look Ahead: It’s pretty hard to get hyped for the 2nd preseason game. Once the regular season starts I’m going to pick the best 5 games on the schedule. I’m not doing that with preseason games. There is going to be a lot of attention paid to the Jets and Redskins as this will be Favre’s first action with a team other than the Packers since 1991. People will be curious to see how he looks in this new offense. New England and Tampa Bay features two playoff teams. The Giants and Browns could be an entertaining matchup.
I’m not going to waste too much time previewing preseason games. As teams take the field for the second time we should start to see some trends and can start looking at possible concerns or possible things to be optimistic about. The key is that teams build some momentum and keep their players healthy. All in all it was a good week of preseason action and it is nice to have football back. Let me know what you thought about this week's developments in the NFL and your favorite team's performance in the preseason.
The retirement that just won’t seem to go away has taken a strange turn of events over the last week. Brett Favre has now decided that he would like his helmet or his unconditional release so that he may resume his career with someone other than the Green Bay Packers. I have been wanting to post something about this article for about a week, but I wanted to wait for Favre’s interview with Greta Van Susteren to finish airing so that I could write the article having heard both sides of the story.
This is a difficult topic for me to address objectively. While I know more about the Packers than any other team, Brett Favre is just about the only quarterback I have ever seen start for the Green Bay Packers. I started following the NFL in the 1989 season. Having grown up in Wisconsin it doesn’t take a great leap of logic to figure out that the Packers would be the team I ended up following. While I am well educated in the Lambeau and Lombardi eras I wasn‘t born yet. Favre became the starter just three seasons after I started watching football. He has been my favorite player on my favorite team for about as long as I have been following the NFL.
Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers have had a very interesting marriage over the years. The Packers have won more games than any team in the NFL since he took his first snap, 160 wins to be exact. He has set just about every career NFL passing record, good and bad that a quarterback could hope to set. He has won three consecutive MVP awards from 1995-1997. In the process he became not just a popular NFL quarterback, but also an American icon. Other than Michael Jordan and Tiger Woods he is as popular as any athlete of his generation.
He also has had his negatives. Michael Jordan and Tiger Woods are not only popular but two of the biggest champions in the history of professional sports. The Packers have won only one Super Bowl in #4’s career, which was back in 1996. A large part of that can be attributed to a declining defense that began when Reggie White left the team in 1998. The Packers have had very few quality defenses since then.
Still, Brett Favre does not entirely escape blame. Many of his 288 career interceptions have come in the second half of his career. He had a six-interception playoff game against the Rams in 2001 and a four-interception playoff game against the Vikings in 2004. He threw an interception in overtime against the Philadelphia Eagles in 2002 and against the New York Giants in 2007 that contributed to the Packers defeats in those playoff games.
That sometimes inconsistent play combined with his annual retirement saga that has dominated the winter Wisconsin sports scene since 2005 has caused many Packer fans to wish that even a thing as great as Brett Favre would just come to an end. I have listened to many a post game show on the Packer radio network. Every time Brett Favre has played poorly there is a segment of the Packer Nation that has called for him to be replaced. It does not surprise me that the Packer Nation is so divided now that this latest twist has materialized. Many outsiders believe that Packer fans are in 100% support of Favre. That has not been the case for many years. To all the Packer fans that want to go on with Aaron Rodgers for whatever reason I would make this simple point. Since 1996 there have been only 8 franchises out of 32 that have even won a Super Bowl. Since 1996 Favre has led the Packers to one Super Bowl appearance, two NFC Championship Games where the Packers went 1-1, and four divisional round games where the Packers went 2-2. While that may seem disappointing to you it is better than most of the teams in the NFL. Go complain to Cincinnati and Arizona fans about your poor fortune.
While it may be annoying to go through this soap opera every year what is even more annoying is not knowing which bad quarterback you are going to go with year in and year out. Talk to your favorite Bear fan. Ask him or her how it feels to debate between Cade McNown, Jim Miller, Kordell Stewart, Chad Hutchinson, Rex Grossman, Kyle Orton, and Brian Griese. Talk to your favorite Viking fan that thought Daunte Culpepper was the answer that Minnesota had been looking for all these years. About how he went from historically good in 2004 to historically irrelevant by 2005 in the prime of his career. Stop complaining about this retirement saga and how miserable it makes you. It shows how spoiled you have become by #4‘s greatness and the success it has brought the Green Bay Packers. Packer fans don’t have a right to complain about misfortunes in the Favre era when you stack the Packers up with other NFL franchises during that same period.
In fact if you don’t believe the Bears or Vikings fans talk to a Packer fan that watched football after the Lombardi era. From 1968 to 1992 the Packers won exactly one playoff game as they looked for Bart Starr’s replacement year after year. Since 1992 life has been pretty good in Green Bay. While it will be nice to one day not have to deal with this annoying retirement saga it will be ten times worse if the Packers spend 30 years looking for a replacement something that is not out of the realm of possibility. Be thankful the Packers own the rights to a future Hall of Fame quarterback. There aren’t many teams in the league that can make that claim.
For the non Packer fans I think it is important to understand the dynamics of this situation. Neither side is totally to blame and neither side is totally without fault. Let’s start with the case for Brett Favre. Ted Thompson was hired as the GM after the 2004 season. Favre was 35 years old at that time. He was coming off a season in which he started 16 games, threw for 4,088 yards, 30 touchdowns, 17 interceptions, and a 92.4 QB rating. The Packers went 10-6 and lost at home to the Vikings 31-17. He had one touchdown pass and four picks in that home loss. While he was dejected by the loss and would not immediately commit to coming back he did commit within a very short time after the playoff loss. It was nothing like we have seen the last three seasons.
Ted Thompson’s first pick in his first draft was used to select Aaron Rodgers. Favre was never impressed with that move. He wanted the Packers to win right now and did not see how taking a rookie QB in the first round was going to help the Packers win. The Packers were open about the fact that they wanted Favre to mentor Rodgers, something #4 never embraced. His response to that was that no one mentored him and his job was to win football games, not coach a young player. He said Rodgers should learn the same way he did; study the playbook and watch the veteran.
After a 4-12 season Mike McCarthy replaced Mike Sherman. He had been an assistant for the Packers in 1999, but had no previous head coaching experience. Favre had really hoped the Packers would go after Steve Steve Mariucci who had been Favre’s quarterbacks coach at the beginning of his career. The Packers never made an attempt to even interview him.
The Packers did sign Charles Woodson, but for the most part have been quiet in free agency since Thompson‘s arival. All of these moves made it clear that Green Bay was in a full blown rebuilding effort and cared little about Favre‘s input. They let veterans like Ahman Green, Javon Walker, Ryan Longwell, Mike Wahle, Marco Rivera, William Henderson, Vonnie Holiday, Na’il Diggs, and countless others go. That is something that Favre was critical of Thompson for, a thought he expressed in the On the Record interview. He thought Thompson made a mistake by getting rid of Rivera and Wahle.
That became even more evident after the 2006 season. The Packers had finished 8-8 and won their last four games of the regular season. Still, they let Ahman Green walk. Green was the best offensive weapon Favre had ever played with. Thompson failed to pull a trigger on the Randy Moss deal something Brett Favre wanted desperately. That decision further alienated Favre.
That is where I believe things didn’t go according to plan. The Packers had never envisioned they would go 13-3 in 2007, even if they had signed Moss. They never envisioned that Jennings and Grant would make that big of an impact. Favre was on the verge of setting records for career victories, touchdown passes, passing attempts, and yards. I believe the Packers thought he was going to have a year similar to 2006, the Packers would contend for a wildcard, and Favre would ride off into the sunset as the holder of the major individual passing records with no hope for a Super Bowl run in the near future.
Instead the Packers became one of several favorites to win the Super Bowl in 2008 coming off a 13-3 record with the youngest team in the league. Favre even stated in January that he was excited about the prospect of wanting to comeback for another year and not focusing on retirement.
Now let’s go to Ted Thompson’s point of view. He came to the Packers after the 2004 season. He was coming to a team that had gone 44-20 in the four previous seasons. However, they had gone 2-4 in the playoffs and had not advanced past the NFC Divisional Round. In 2003 and 2004 the team got off to very slow starts. The 2003 team started 3-4 before finishing 10-6. The 2004 team started 1-4 before finishing 10-6. The coaching staff and team didn‘t always appear to be on the same page. They had a lot of aging players. The offensive line was starting to get old. Ahman Green was in decline. The Packers had a 35 year old quarterback that was beginning to speculate about his retirement on a yearly basis.
The wheels fell off the wagon in 2005. The team was decimated by injuries and was 4-12. The trend has been to go with young assistant coaches and not retreads. Hiring McCarthy seemed like a good fit for a rebuilding effort. Brett Favre waited until April to announce that he was returning, which made that move make even more sense. Why bring a veteran head coach into that type of rebuilding project.
Ted Thompson had nothing left to do but strip the team and start rebuilding through the draft. He did a very good job of that. Thompson drafted AJ Hawk, Greg Jennings, James Jones, James Jolly, Mason Cosby, and Nick Collins. He rebuilt an aging offensive line. That was a great infusion of young talent. He fused those young players with an older quarterback.
While bringing in Randy Moss may have made his 37 year old quarterback happy, it could have brought a declining locker room cancer into a young team that would have had disastrous consequences not only in 2007, but for years to come. Even though Moss’s 2007 season proved Favre right about Moss, Ted Thompson had no way of knowing that Randy Moss would not come to Green Bay and be a locker room disaster and spoil a promising young team.
Ted Thompson has built a very strong nucleus and is a superstar young quarterback away from contending for Super Bowls for years to come. While he appreciates the history of the Green Bay organization he has no loyalty to #4. Thompson didn’t bring him in. He inherited Favre at 35 years old. His bigger responsibility is to make sure the Packers are prepared to compete in the NFL not only in 2008, but after Brett Favre is gone. Thompson’s job is not to keep a competitive team around Brett Favre for as long as he wants to play football at the expense of the organization.
That brings us to this offseason. I have no way of knowing this, but based on all the reports that have come out this is what I believe happened. I think Brett Favre made a mistake by retiring early and put the Packers in a difficult position by doing so. I also think Ted Thompson has lost his mind.
Let’s start with Favre. I think the Packers told Brett Favre that if he wanted to comeback he would be welcomed back by the organization. I also think Brett Favre was looking for more than that. I believe he wanted to hear that the Packers were appreciative of the great season he had given them and wanted to know that they were committed to him coming back. I also think he wanted to see them make a splash in free agency to go after that second title he has always wanted. He was burned out by the way the season came to an end. I believe that based on the tone of the conversations Brett Favre had with management he got the impression that the Packers were indifferent to him coming back in 2008 and wanted to only focus on the draft. They just wanted a decision one way or the other that would not drag past March.
Right or wrong, I don’t think Favre knew what he wanted to do then. Critics will say he should have known. I’m not sure that is entirely fair. Favre has brought that criticism on himself by turning his retirement into a public spectacle. However, he has always been honest. He stated in his On the Record interview that he was never a person that would commit to doing something he didn’t know he was 100% behind. Having watched him all these years I believe that. He could have taken his $10.00 million and hoped that he would find his passion, which he probably would have. That isn’t in his personality and I respect that about him. While I’m sure he enjoys making the money he plays for much more than that.
I think Favre decided that if the Packers were indifferent to him coming back he didn’t want to be in a place he wasn’t appreciated. I think their failure to go after Randy Moss for a second straight season sealed the deal in his mind and he decided that it made no sense to comeback to a place he was not appreciated and it wasn’t worth going to another team and starting over at age 38 going on 39. Based on where he was and where he believed the Packers were he decided to announce his retirement on March 04, 2008.
That retirement press conference was the most bizarre retirement press conference I have ever seen. It did not look like there was harmony. Ted Thompson and Mike McCarthy spoke at a press conference without Favre. Favre, Wolf, and Harlan spoke the next day at the official press conference. It definitely gave the perception that it was the old guard vs. the new guard. That Brett Favre was part of the Packer’s past and that the current regime had no problem going on without him.
Then he had second thoughts. It started with the LA Times report that Favre’s agent was gauging teams interest in Favre via a trade. That report gained a lot of credibility in recent weeks. Then, Favre stated he wanted to comeback about a month after he announced his retirement. Thompson has confirmed that he and McCarthy were prepared to meet with Favre in late March, because #4 was interested in rescinding his retirement. Favre cancelled the meeting. It is reported that he told Thompson and McCarthy that he had changed his mind and instead wanted to stay retired.
I get all that. While it is unfortunate that Favre has put the Packers in this situation I can’t believe they are surprised this happened. McCarthy even stated that as football season got closer Favre would probably get the itch to play. Troy Aikman thought he would probably play again. While I think many people were hopeful that a change of mind would not happen, I can’t believe anyone is absolutely floored that all these events transpired. Seeing the Packers know Brett Favre and how emotional he can be about his football career and his tendency to be uncertain about his retirement I can‘t understand why they weren‘t better prepared for this very scenario unfolding.
The only thing I am confused about with Favre is this assistant coach talk. When Thompson was asked what role Favre would be coming back in and whether that role might be as a backup or coach, Thompson said: "not a coach." McCarthy added: "He did ask about that, though."
If that is true, I don’t understand that. How is that being 100% committed to coming back as the starter of the Packers? How can you say that you are committed and then inquire about an assistant coaching role in the same conversation? If that report is true Favre is behaving like someone that has absolutely no clue what he wants to do right now, something that did not come across in his On the Record interview on Monday. Based on that interview he wants to play. If #4 didn’t say that it is pretty shameful that McCarthy would make that up.
Then there is Thompson. He told the AP, ““We’ve communicated that to Brett, that we have since moved forward,” Thompson said Saturday, in his first public comments since Favre requested to be released this week. “At the same time, we’ve never said that there couldn’t be some role that he might play here. But I would understand his point that he would want to play.”
But then he told ESPN News Services, “"It's not accurate," Thompson said of the AP report that Favre would come back as a backup. "We don't know what role that would be. He can come back as an active member of the Green Bay Packers."
I don’t know which statement is more stupid. I’ll go with the comment to ESPN. You don’t know what role he would comeback in??? Is he going to play safety? Maybe he can punt? That’s insulting. The only role he could come back in as a quarterback and Thompson knows that.
That leads to the second comment. Do you really think that a guy who has played 253 consecutive regular season games would make for a good backup? Is that really a situation that would be good for the Packers? Is that going to protect the legacy of Brett Favre? Is that going to help develop Rodgers? Playing stupid isn’t fooling anyone, something that Thompson has shown a tendency for over the years. Be a leader. Pick a position or state that you don’t have one and need to speak to Favre’s camp and gather more information to formulate a position. But don’t give multiple foolish contradicting comments. That makes Thompson look foolish and insincere. His tendency to do that is one reason that he is very unpopular with a segment of the Packer Nation despite his other successes as a GM.
I think that there has been a breakdown in communication that has been caused by both sides distrust of the other. Because of that distrust of you are getting these conflicting positions. I believe they both want to do the right thing, but they don’t trust the other to follow through with his end of the bargain. Regardless of whom you ultimately blame this is a difficult position for both Favre and the Packers.
Many people have compared this situation to the Joe Montana / Steve Young saga that engulfed the Bay area in 1993. The only thing that is similar is the distrust between Joe Montana and the 49ers organization. He too wanted his starting job or to be released. The 49ers kept flip-flopping on what they wanted to do. The 49ers tried promising the starting position to both players. Otherwise there are very few similarities.
Let’s start with Favre. Favre is coming off a season where he started 16 games, threw for 4,155 yards, 28 touchdown passes and had a 95.7 rating. Montana missed the 1991 season and played the second half of the Detroit game in the last week of the 1992 season. While he had been a NFL MVP in 1989 and 1990, he had 126 yards passing and 2 touchdowns in 1991 and 1992 combined. Joe Montana was every bit the same legend in San Francisco that Brett Favre is in Green Bay. But Montana was 36-year-old quarterback going on 37 years old that had played one half of a football game in two seasons. Brett Favre was second in the MVP voting for the NFL in 2007.
Then there is Steve Young versus Aaron Rodgers. Steve Young started 11 games in 1991 and 16 games in 1992. He won the NFL MVP in 1992 with a 107.0 QB rating. He had 25 touchdown passes to 7 picks and had 3,465 passing yards. Steve Young had 42 touchdown passes in 1991 and 1992. Aaron Rodgers had 59 pass attempts over the last 3 seasons. He has 329 career passing yards and 1 touchdown pass in seven career games none of which were starts.
When the 49ers had to decide whether to get rid of Steve Young or Joe Montana they had to choose between keeping a 3-time Super Bowl MVP and 2-time NFL MVP that had played one half of a football game in the previous two seasons versus the reigning MVP of the NFL. That is a pretty nice problem.
The Packers are having to decide whether to go with a quarterback that hasn’t missed a start in 16 seasons and was 2nd in the MVP race last year or a guy that has shown injury tendencies as a backup playing parts of seven games over the past three seasons. Brett Favre and Joe Montana couldn’t be more different. Steve Young and Aaron Rodgers couldn’t be more different.
The teams were also very different. The 49ers did a nice job retooling after 1984 and had a new cast of players in place by 1988 and 1989. By 1993 they had a lot of veteran skill position players. Jerry Rice is widely considered the best receiver in the history of the NFL. He was in his prime. John Taylor was a solid number 2 guy. Brent Jones was a solid tight end. Tom Rathman was a capable fullback. Ricky Waters was being worked into the lineup as the starting running back to replace Roger Craig. They knew those players could succeed with Young or Montana.
The Packers have a proven commodity in Donald Driver that has played with no one other that Brett Favre. Everyone else on the offense is young and unproven. It is possible that Brett Favre was made to look better than he was because of their development. It is more likely that Brett Favre made them look better than they actually were. We need to see more to make final determinations on Greg Jennings, James Jones, Donald Lee, and Ryan Grant. We need to see if the offensive line was really that good or Brett Favre’s quick release masked some of the deficiencies in the offensive line. Brett Favre has a history of elevating average players in Green Bay. Research Bill Schroeder and Tyrone Davis if you need further convincing.
The fact is that I can’t convince anyone that Aaron Rodgers is good or bad. On the good side he has shown progress each pre seasons. Brett Favre has a good history of grooming backup quarterbacks that have gone on to be good NFL starters. Aaron Brooks, Mark Brunell, Matt Hasselbeck, and Kurt Warner all spent time behind Favre. Rodgers looked especially good in the Dallas game where he threw for 201 yards and posted a rating of 104.8 rating.
On the bad side he played at California for Jeff Tedford. Tedford has groomed the following NFL quarterbacks in college: Trent Dilfer, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, Kyle Boller, Billy Volek, and A.J. Feeley. That isn’t exactly an all-star cast of NFL quarterbacks. Also, the Pac 10 hasn’t exactly been great for NFL quarterbacks in recent years. Carson Palmer is about the only first round pick out of the Pac 10 in recent seasons that has panned out.
Another concern is Rodgers injury problems. He filled in for Brett Favre in a blowout loss to the Patriots in 2006. He broke his ankle and was out for the remainder of the season. In 2007 he filled in for Favre in the Dallas loss. He proceeded to pull a hamstring in practice with Favre questionable that week. The Packers had to sign Craig Null to backup Favre for the remaining games in the 2007 season as Rodgers was unable to practice or play. The fear is that you could release or trade Favre and three games later need him back because Rodgers has gotten injured in the meantime. It is never good to have injury concerns as a backup. To have them as Favre’s backup is especially concerning.
If the Packers were that sold on Rodgers they wouldn’t have drafted two quarterbacks in the 2008 NFL draft, including the use of their second pick on Brian Brohm from Louisville. While there is a lot to be hopeful for there is also a lot to be weary of. That is a big gamble when you have #4 ready to comeback to the team, which is one of the most proven commodities in the history of professional sports.
Suggesting that Favre’s only option at this point is to backup Rodgers is beyond comprehension. Then to deny it and say that you are trying to find a role for him with the team is equally insulting. I don’t believe Packer management did everything in their power to encourage Brett Favre to comeback. I think they alienated the Favre camp to the point where he didn’t want to continue his career there. In February that meant retiring. Now it means possibly playing for another team if they don‘t make amends.
Ted Thompson is the GM of the Packers. His job is to bring in good players and keep the ones that he has happy. While you can’t please everyone, Brett Favre does not have a history of being a difficult player. He is not a TO type personality. He is a popular with his teammates and plays hard no matter the team’s record or situation.
Thompson may not be warm to the idea, but he has the burden of trying to make this work. While he can’t keep everyone happy his job is not to drive away the best player in the history of this historic franchise. I understand that he went to Mississippi in both 2005 and 2008 to talk Favre out of retiring. I’m not accusing Thompson of deliberately trying to run Favre out of town. While it is debatable how much he did to drive away Favre I also think it is clear he did the bare minimum to encourage him to stay.
The Packers have only two courses of action. Their best course of action is to try to repair the wounds and bring Brett Favre back in 2008. While that does create complications particularly with regards to Aaron Rodgers it is the best answer to a no win situation. The Packers best chance to win a Super Bowl is the chance in front of them.
Brett Favre gives the Packers a better chance than Aaron Rodgers to win a Super Bowl in 2008. If there is a way to bring Favre back and keep harmony between the key people in the organization they should do that. People are taught to put aside their egos and do what is best for the organization. Brett Favre’s best chance to win in 2008 is in Green Bay and Green Bay’s best chance to win is with Brett Favre. Neither party has been perfect and both have legitimate grievances with the other. Neither should let pride get in the way of winning. They should both do what is best for the football team.
Not every player will agree with all the decisions the Packers make. However the players will respect an organization that puts them in the best possible position to win. Al Harris already went on NFL Network and said he would like to play with Favre in 2008. That is a leader of the football team and his opinion is probably shared by many of the other veteran players. If the players feel their leader was driven out of town for someone that was not as good they will resent that far more than if Aaron Rodgers wasn’t treated perfectly. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t earned enough credibility in the NFL to warrant anything other than his paycheck. While he has been put in a tough situation that is everyday life for an unproven player in the NFL.
If there is no way the Packers can bring Favre back or if Favre has no desire to comeback than they need to trade him before the start of training camp. If they don’t, Green Bay’s training camp will have media attention ten times that of the Eagle’s training camp in 2005 with TO vs. McNabb. You can’t have that circus with a starting quarterback that has thrown 59 career passes. However, they can’t just release Favre because the Bears are a quarterback away from contending for the playoffs and the Vikings are a quarterback away from contending for the Super Bowl. It would be football suicide to allow him to go to one of your biggest rivals and have that rival win a Super Bowl.
Furthermore, you can’t just keep his rights and hope for the right offer to come around or for Favre to just go away. Even if he isn’t on the opening day roster the speculation will roar the first time Rodgers has a bad series that the Packers should activate Brett Favre. Rodgers can’t succeed if Favre is his backup nor can he succeed if he is lurking in the shadows waiting for him to fail.
If the Packers give Rodgers the job Rodgers needs to be confident that the job is his. It took Favre over two seasons to begin playing consistent MVP football. Rodgers needs to be afforded the time to grow in a positive enviroment. Brett Favre has given years of outstanding service. He should be afforded the opportunity to continue his career elsewhere and not be a hostage in a bad situation, especially if the team no longer wants to start him.
Ted Thompson may not want to go down as the guy that drove Brett Favre out of Green Bay. However, it would be far worse to be the guy that drove him out of the game. If it is not possible to bring Favre back deal him somewhere else quickly and let him become someone else’s dilemma. Deal him before the situation alienates Packers fans to the point where they are mad at the organization or to the point where Favre is not welcome in Lambeau Field. It is important that after Favre really does retire that he can resume being an ambassador for the Packers. You want his Hall of Fame ceremony to be a Packer celebration, not a bittersweet symphony.
Similar to what the 49ers did with Montana the Packers have to trade him somewhere that he isn’t going to be threatening. The Chiefs, Jets, and Ravens would seem to make the most sense in the AFC. The Bucs, Panthers, and Redskins could make sense in the NFC. All have been in the playoffs within the last two seasons with the exception of the Panthers. All have veteran teams whose window seems to be closing. All lack a dominant signal caller that can take them into contention. Favre could be the piece that puts them in contention. I find it impossible to believe that with so many teams needing good quarterbacks that the Packers could not quickly make that deal.
It would be a shame, because an athlete like Brett Favre comes around once in a lifetime. He became a household name as a Packer and he should have retire a Packer. However what should happen and does happen are often two different things. Jerry Rice played his last game in a Seahawk uniform. Unitas gave it a try as a Charger. Montana retired a Chief. All are remembered fondly for the teams they made their names with. Even if Favre ends his career with another team he will always be remembered as the greatest and most popular player in the history of the Packer franchise. Playing somewhere else for a year or two will not change that.
My hope is that they can work this out so that my favorite player can continue to play for my favorite franchise. If not, I will have two favorite teams in 2008. It won’t be as much fun for me to root for the Packers without Favre, but I am not going to disown my favorite team. I want to remember Favre for his great years in Green Bay and hating the franchise will not help me do that. If Favre is traded his new team will also become my favorite team. I will root for that team to succeed as well.
The Packers and Favre are very special. They are institutions in NFL history. There is no reason that either should be disliked because they combined to make a difficult situation impossible. While making amends would be the most desirable sometimes moving on is the only solution. Whatever they decide they need to do it quickly. It is already a gigantic mess. The longer this goes on the messier it is going to become. That is not good for anyone. There will be no winners and only a lot of losers if that happens.
I'm going to be away
from my blog for the next couple weeks as I take a much needed break from the
blogger world. I appreciate everyone that commented on the various
divisions. What made those fun was reading all the passionate comments
from various fans.
I'm going to leave an
open question for people to comment on.
This is a very simple
question. What is the thing you are the most optimistic about when it
comes to your favorite team and what is the one thing that gives you the
greatest concern?
Have a happy 4th of July everyone and I look
forward to reading the comments when I get back.
Sorry I was a little late with this posting. The Memorial Day Weekend Holiday set me
a bit behind. This is my fourth of
eight NFL division previews. While
there are still a couple months until training camps, most of the rosters are
complete. There could be a few
minor changes after some June 1st cuts. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of
training camp. However, this is
how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division
every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.
The NFC South was arguably the weakest division in the NFL
in 2007. Tampa Bay was the only
divisional winner in 2007 not to win 10 games. Tampa Bay fans will point to the fact that they sat a lot of
starters the last two weeks that resulted in their 9- 7 record. Still the Buccaneers were 5-1 in the
division and 4-6 outside of it.
The Panthers and Saints were 3-3 against the division and 4-6 outside of
it. The Falcons were 3-7 outside
the division. This is a division
that really struggled to win games against teams in other divisions. No team is vastly superior to the
other, with the exception of Atlanta.
Even they could potentially finish out of the cellar if Ryan plays well
as a rookie and things bounce their way.
It is difficult to argue that this is anything other than a wide-open
race in 2008.
Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the NFC South.
1) New
Orleans Saints
07
Record: 7-9
Points
Scored: 379 (12th)
Points
Allowed: 388 (25th)
Playoff
Result: No Playoffs
2008
Strength of Schedule: 115-141
(.449) (27th (t) in NFL)
Strengths:
The Saints have a terrific passing offense. The Saints ranked 3rd in passing yards as Drew
Brees had 4,423 yards passing. The
problem is that he had a 1 touchdown, 11 picks, and a 52.7 QB rating in his first 4 games. The Saints dug a 0-4 hole for themselves. In his last 12 games he had 28
touchdown passes, 7 interceptions, and a 103.1 QB rating. The problem is you don’t get to
mulligan the first 4 games of the season.
Despite going 7-3 in their next 10 games they lost their last 2 games to close the season and missed the playoffs.
The problem is they were so
inconsistent during the season.
They beat Jacksonville 41-24 and followed that up with a 37-29 loss to
the Rams where they were routed for the first 3 quarters. This team has to work on their
consistency. They can’t go in the
tank for 4 games, win 4 in a row, and then lose to teams like the Rams. They have to bring it every Sunday.
There are a lot of good weapons in
place. Brees is one of the top
quarterbacks in the NFL. Colston
is entering his 3rd season and looks primed to have a season similar
to what Braylon Edwards did in 2007.
Reggie Bush still has his faults, but when used properly is an explosive
weapon. The Saints used him in too
many reverses last season and gadget plays. They need to get back to the way they used him in 2006, which was as a spark plug, not the featured player in the offense. The injury to McAllister hurt them with
that, but they were struggling to get Bush going while both were in the
lineup. Stecker had a solid end to
the season and gives them more weapons.
Henderson, Meacham, and Johnson are all quality targets. The Saints have a stockpile of
offensive weapons.
The Saints can put up points in
bunches. If they can cut down on
their turnovers and play with more consistency, they will score even more
points and should win more games than in 2007.
Weaknesses: The Saints were the only team to
attempt more than 600 passes in 2007 with 652. They ran the ball only 392 times, which ranked 7th
worst in the league. That means
they passed the ball 62.5 percent of the time and ran the ball only 37.5
percent of the time. The result
was a rushing attack that ranked 28th in the NFL and a scoring
offense that ranked 12th.
With the problems this team had on defense, they weren’t able to
overcome that hurdle.
For as good of a play caller as
Payton was in 2006 he was equally bad in 2007, especially in the first 4 games of the season. The Saints have to find ways to run the ball, cut down on
turnovers, and pass the ball down the field. They threw the ball way too much to Bush and not enough to
the receivers down the field. If
the defense stacks the line of scrimmage, you can’t throw the ball to Bush and
expect him to run through and by everyone. He has not yet shown that type of ability.
The Saints concentrated on
improving their defense this off-season.
They traded for Jonathan Vilma. He is much more suited as the middle linebacker in a 4-3. The Jets going to a 3-4 really hurt his production. If he can return to his 2004 and 2005 form that will help the Saints
defense considerably. They drafted
Ellis in the first round out of USC to improve their defensive tackle
position. They added Bobby
McCray. Those two should help the
Saints improve on a rush defense that ranked a respectable 13th in the NFL. It should also improve the pass rush. McCray will also give them insurance
should Charles Grant have to miss time with his legal problems. He has been indicted by a Georgia grand
jury with involuntary manslaughter.
They also improved their
secondary. Randall #### is an
upgrade. They also drafted Tracy
Porter in the second round from Indiana.
The Saints are hoping that with a couple additional pass rushers and a
few more defensive backs they can improve on their 30th ranked
defense. The Saints secondary is by no means perfect, but should not give up quite as many big plays as they did in 2007.
Prediction: I am still bitter at the New Orleans
Saints for their 2007 season. It
isn’t that I’m a Saints fan. My
preseason prediction in 2007 was for the New England Patriots to beat the New
Orleans Saints in the Super Bowl.
The fact that they didn’t even qualify for the playoffs was annoying to
say the least.
The most troubling thing was that
they missed the playoffs because of poor play and inconsistency. It wasn’t as if Brees was lost for the
season early and altered the dynamic of their season. They couldn’t run the ball and they couldn’t stop the
pass. That keeps other offenses on
the field to exploit the Saints weakness and the result was blowouts to good
teams and a lot of losses to bad teams that were unexplainable.
I think they have improved this
defense. I’m not saying it will be
confused with the 2000 Ravens, but I think that Vilma, Ellis, McCray, ####, and
Porter should help.
I also think Payton is a good coach that had a bad year. He will reevaluate his play calling and try to go down
the field more this season.
The schedule looks good for
them. It is one of the easier ones
in the NFL. The AFC West is going
through a transition and the NFC North has some winnable games. Washington and San Fran are winnable
games as well. They aren't in a AFC South type of division, so they should be okay there.
I went back and forth on whether to
pick the Saints to win the NFC South for a second straight year. After much debate, I finally decided to
give them another try. That
doesn’t mean I think they are a Super Bowl team, but I do think that if they
play to their talents, they have the best shot to win the NFC South.
New
Orleans’ Record: 10-6 – NFC South Divisional Champion; NFC #3 Seed
2) Tampa
Bay Buccaneers
07
Record: 9-7
Points
Scored: 334 (18th)
Points
Allowed: 270 (3rd)
Playoff
Result: Lost in the NFC Wildcard Round
2008
Strength of Schedule: 120-136 (.469) (20th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Buccaneers had one of the best
defenses in the NFL in 2007. The
Bucs finished first in the NFL in pass defense, allowing just 170.5 yards per
game. They finished third in
points allowed with 16.9. There
only real weakness on defense was stopping the run, which ranked 17th.
They didn’t do well on defense by
putting a lot of pressure on the QB.
Their 33 sacks ranked tied for 16th in the NFL. They didn’t pick a lot of passes. Their 16 passes ranked tied for 17th
in the NFL. Their completion
percentage allowed of 60.6 ranked only 15th in the NFL. So how did this pass defense rank
number 1 over the NY Giants, San Diego Chargers, and New England Patriots who
all ranked much higher in sacks and turnovers?
The explanation is two-fold. 1) It helped that they did not play
most of the top passing offenses.
They drew Tennessee and Jacksonville with Garrard injured. They drew Atlanta and Carolina
twice without Delhomme. They played the NFC West
49ers and Rams. Washington had
passing issues. The best passing
offenses they played in 2007 were Arizona, Detroit, Indy, Houston, New Orleans
twice, and Seattle. Only Indy and
Seattle made the playoffs, which Tampa Bay was blown out by in both games.
The second reason is that they were
good at controlling the clock and playing field position. They ranked 11th in both
rushing yards and rushing attempts.
They tied for first in the NFL with interceptions thrown, tossing just
8. Jeff Garcia had only 4
interceptions on the season, 3 of them coming in the Jacksonville game. That
combination resulted in an offense that did not put the Bucs defense in bad
position on he field. Even though
the Bucs didn’t force turnovers and sacks, the opposing offense had to go the
distance.
That isn’t to say that the Bucs
defense doesn’t have talent.
Derrick Brooks is still a great linebacker. Gaines Adams had 6 sacks in his rookie season and should look
to approach double-digit sacks in 2008.
Ronde Barber is still a very respected cornerback. There are a lot of quality players on that defense.
The problem for the Bucs is that
Brooks is 35 and Barber is 33. Those are two of their best players. The
Bucs have done a good job of adding defensive talent. They drafted Aqib Talib to add youth to the secondary and
replace Brian Kelly who left for Detroit in free agency. The Bucs must continue to get younger on defense as
the last remaining pieces to their 2002 Super Bowl team are reaching the
twilight of their brilliant careers.
Weaknesses: The offense was not very explosive in
2007. The Bucs were 20th
in points scored with 20.9. They
were 18th in yards, 16th in passing yards, and 11th
in rushing yards. If Tampa Bay
wants to take the next step, they have to do better on offense.
Jeff Garcia did make the Pro
Bowl as an injury replacement. He is 38. The Bucs do not have a shortage of
quarterbacks behind him. Simms,
Griese, Gradkowski, and even the retired Jake Plummer are all property of Tampa
Bay and with the exception of Plummer ready to play on a minutes notice. Galloway had his third straight 1,000-yard season in Tampa
Bay, but turns 37 years old in November.
Earnest Graham filled in well for the injured Cadillac Williams and had
898 rushing yards to go with his 10 rushing touchdowns. Warrick Dunn should do well in Gruden’s
offense as a pass catcher, but he too is 33 years old.
There just isn’t a lot after
that. Williams has been injured
and disappointing since a strong rookie campaign in 2005. Ike Hilliard had 722 yards and 1
touchdown in 2007 as the number 2 receiver. Michael Clayton has fewer yards (1029) in his last 3 seasons
than he did in his rookie season of 2004 with 1,193. He has been beyond disappointing. They just don’t have a lot of weapons after
Galloway to throw down the field to. Tight End has been a
nonexistent position. Alex Smith
led the way with 385 yards and 3 touchdowns.
The Bucs tried to upgrade their
receiver position with Dexter Jackson in the second round. He biggest contribution will probably
come in the return game. The Bucs
figure to have to win with strong defense, good running, short passes, and no turnovers in
2008. They just don't have the firepower to challenge the
top offenses in the NFL.
Prediction:
This is always a tough division to pick.
The Falcons won the division in 04, the Panthers in 05, the Saints in
06, and the Buccaneers in 07. It
seems like any team could win this division year in and year out and the Bucs
have the defense to compete.
I like the Bucs defense, but I
still don’t understand how they won the division over the Saints in 2007. While Garcia was a nice addition and
defense does go along way to helping a team win games, the Saints passing game
was vastly superior and should have been enough to carry them, even with their
0-4 start. Had Payton not called that gadget play against the Bucs late in the 4th quarter that gave Tampa Bay new life, New Orleans would have tied Tampa Bay for the division lead in Week 13 and Tampa Bay would probably not have been able to rest everyone to close the season. Things could have turned out much different.
This team reminds me of Baltimore
in 2006. The individual and team
statistics do not scream division winner, but at the end of the year they are
on top. Coaching was as much the difference in
2007 in the NFC South as anything.
Jon Gruden is by far the best coach in that division.
I think Garcia can still lead this
offense and they have intriguing backups should he go down. Detroit, Chicago,
Oakland, Kansas City, and Denver all offer potential for wins. Dallas, Seattle, Minnesota, Green Bay,
and San Diego could all be very tough.
I just think their key defenders
are a year older, the offense doesn’t look much better, and the schedule is
tougher. I know they could have
finished above 9-7 had they played all their players the last couple weeks, but
I just don’t see this team repeating in the division. I think they finish near .500, make things interesting in
the division, and compete with Carolina for 2nd place in this
always-volatile division.
Tampa
Bay’s Record: 8–8 NFC South 2nd Place; No Playoffs
3) Carolina
Panthers
07
Record: 7-9
Points
Scored: 267 (26th)
Points
Allowed: 349 (15th)
Playoff
Result: No Playoffs
2008
Strength of Schedule: 119-137 (.465) (22nd (t) in NFL)
Strengths: Given the offense the Panthers played
with in 2007, the defense did very well to finish 15th in points
allowed. While the Panthers
defense was weaker than previous seasons, they still finished in the middle of
the pack in the NFL.
The Panthers added some nice talent
in the draft. Dan Conner is a good
linebacker from a solid linebacker program in Penn State. He should contribute. Charles Godfrey is a defensive back
that could see the field immediately.
The Panthers secondary still has
solid corners. Gamble and Lucas
are excellent in coverage. They
have to improve on their 31st ranked pass rush, which generated 23
sacks if they want to get the full production out of those guys. They can’t be effective if the
quarterback has all day to throw the ball.
On offense, Steve Smith is still a
top-flight wide receiver. DJ
Hackett was a good addition. Muhsin Muhammad is well past his prime, but is
familiar with Carolina and can help as a possession wide receiver. Dwayne Jarrett needs to step up in his
second year. He had just 6 catches
for 73 yards in his rookie campaign.
Jeff King has the potential to put up good numbers at the tight end
position. A healthy Jake Delhomme
would go along way to helping all of these players put up better numbers in 2008.
Weaknesses:
The Panthers had a very strange year in 2007. They started off 4-2.
Steve Smith is their only really scary weapon. He had 35 catches for 496 yards and 6 touchdowns in those 6 games. That would have translated to 93 catches for 1,322 yards and 16 touchdowns for the season.
Then Jake Delhomme was injured in his 3rd game of the season
and was lost for the year. Smith had some good games with Tesaverde, but really struggled to get even a few catches with Carr and Moore. He finished with just 52 catches for 506 yards and 1
touchdown in his last 10 games. As a result, the offense scored only 14.4 points over the final 10 games. The result was a 3-7 finish to the
season.
The defense, which had been a
stable of this team, did not perform very well in 2007. They finished only 15th in
the league in scoring defense.
That was tied for their worst season since John Fox took over in
2002. A lot of that had to do with
the offense not being able to give them a lead or keep them in good field
position. Still, 3-time Pro Bowl
and 2-time NFL All-Pro first team defensive end Julius Peppers has to have more
than 2.5 sacks. He was awful in
2007. It was his only season
other than 2003 where he failed to register double digit sacks. That was a major reason why the Panthers
finished so low in the sack department.
He is moving to right defensive end with the retirement of Mike Rucker.
Foster and Williams teamed up to be
the 14th best rushing attack in 2007. Foster is gone to San Fran and Williams has yet to show he
can be an every down back. That
factored into the Panthers selecting Jonathan Stewart with the 13th
pick. If he can be healthy by the
start of the season the Panthers should be more effective running the
ball. The Panthers also added
massive tackle Jeff Oath to upgrade the run blocking and pass protection from
the tackle spot. Jordan Gross is
one of the best in the business.
If those two can excel in 2008, that will help the entire offense.
Prediction:
The whole key to the season is whether or not Mr. Delhomme can stay
healthy and whether Peppers can return to 10 plus sack form. Peppers should have a better year. He is not past his prime and has a lot of years left.
While Delhomme is not among the
elite quarterbacks in the league he has proven he can lead this team to
victory. He can throw the ball
downfield to Steve Smith and manage the offense. He played very well in the Super Bowl back in 2003 and led
the Panthers to a NFC Championship appearance in 2005. The only question with him has been
consistency and interceptions, until health crept into the picture the last 2
seasons.
Without him, Matt Moore is the new
starter and as we saw last year, that isn’t really a good thing. In his 3 starts the Panthers went 2-1,
but that 1 win was against the resting Buccaneers to close the season. In the other two starts the Panthers
scored 13 points in each contest. He
just doesn’t have the arm to go downfield on a regular basis.
While Delhomme was very healthy
from 2003 to 2005, he just hasn’t been the last 2 seasons. He missed 3 starts in 2006 and 13 last
year. He had season ending surgery
to his elbow on his throwing arm and is still not throwing at full
strength. That is not what you
want from your starter in June.
The Panthers made some upgrades at
wide receiver, running back, and on defense in the draft. They should be improved. The Saints are a puzzling team and the
Buccaneers have their share of issues.
I would not be shocked if the Panthers competed for the division.
I considered picking them for the
top spot, but I just am not confident that Delhomme will be healthy or
effective the entire season and I don’t think a team can win consistently in
the NFL with Moore starting games.
I don’t pick teams to do well in June that are going through quarterback
health questions. See the 2007
Eagles and 2006 Dolphins for reasons why I don’t do that. I look for more of the same for the
Panthers in 2008 as they try to make the playoffs and save John Fox’s job. The once hot young coach’s hot seat
will get even hotter if the Panthers miss the playoffs.
Carolina’s
Record: 7-9 – NFC South 3rd Place; No Playoffs
4) Atlanta
Falcons
07
Record: 4-12
Points
Scored: 259 (29th)
Points
Allowed: 414 (29th)
Playoff
Result: No Playoffs
2008
Strength of Schedule: 120-136 (.469) (20th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Falcons are a team that is in
complete rebuilding mode. When
Michael Vick pleaded guilty to federal dog fighting charges the face of their
franchise was stripped from them.
Bobby Petrino was in his first year coaching and was not able to handle
the transition from the college game to the pro game with that bombshell. The result was a 3-10 record before he resigned. Former Jacksonville defensive
coordinator Mike Smith has been entrusted to get this franchise back on
track.
The Falcons had a number of good
parts last season. Roddy White
broke out in his 3rd season for 83 catches, 1,202 yards, and 6
touchdowns. Considering his
quarterback cast that was a very productive year. Jerious Norwood looked impressive at times and has a lot of
big play potential. He had 103
carries for 603 yards and 1 rushing touchdown, while adding 277 receiving
yards. Even though Warrick Dunn
has returned to Tampa Bay, Norwood will not be the number one guy. Michael Turner was the prized free
agent the Falcons signed in free agency.
After backing up LT for 4 seasons it is his time to be the number one
guy. The two will form a very good
running back duo.
The defense was not very good in
2007, but a few players did stand out.
John Abraham was able to tally 10 sacks. Keith Brooking is still a very underappreciated linebacker. Chris Houston is a young cornerback
that the Falcons hope will develop into a starter now that Hall is a Raider.
Jason Elam was a big signing on
special teams. Morton Anderson was
reliable, but not from long range.
Elam will give them better production on long field goals and the
kickoff game. He is a clutch
kicker with the game on the line and could help the Falcons steal a couple close games.
Weaknesses: The Falcons really bottomed out last
season. They ranked 29th
in both scoring offense and defense.
They were 23rd in offensive yards gained and 29th
in defensive yards allowed. While
they had some players that gave good individual contributions, it didn’t result
in a good showing for the team.
I really believe that Bobby Petrino
was a large part of the problem.
He did not connect well with his players and obviously did not want to
be there. His fights with Hall
were well documented. I thought
his exit to Arkansas the night after a tough Monday Night loss was gutless. Mike Smith should be a much better hire and is much more disciplined. He should be able to take this team forward.
Matt Ryan was a huge draft pick. He gives the Falcon fans something to
hope for. Michael Vick did give
the Falcons a lot of good years and his legal problems should not diminish
that. However, the Falcons have to
move on and Matt Ryan has the potential to be the franchise quarterback the
Falcons need now more than ever.
It will be interesting to see if
they throw him in the fire now or wait until 2009. My guess is that Redman or Harrington could start the season
and that by the middle of the year Ryan will be the number one guy. However, I could see where the Falcons
throw the youngster into the fire on day one. Ryan is signed so he will be at training camp on day one. This won't be a Russell situation from last year where the Raiders had not choice but to sit the September arrival most of the season. How Ryan does in training camp will go a long way to determining his opening day status. Either way, it is going to hamper the Falcons from joining
the top passing offenses in 2008.
This is a rebuilding year and the Falcons must accept that.
The Falcons improved their
offensive line by drafting Sam Baker in the first round. He should help the Falcons continue to
upgrade the offensive line. They
also added Harry Douglas to give their QBs another target on offense.
On defense they added Curtis Lofton
to upgrade their linebacker core.
In the secondary they added Chevis Jaskson and Thomas DeCoud. The Falcons are trying to retool
a defense that had ranked in the middle of the NFL over the 3 seasons prior to
2007. The first round was geared to offense, with some of their other picks going to upgrade the defense.
Prediction:
I like what the Falcons did this off-season. I thought Ryan was a solid pick. I like the Turner signing. I like that they brought in Elam. The division is not very strong and they have an easy
schedule based on last year’s results.
That said it is very hard to win in this league with a rookie
quarterback. Even if Harrington or
Redman starts the season neither has proven they can win week in and week out in the NFL.
The key for the Falcons will be a
fast start. They get Detroit,
Tampa, Kansas City, and Carolina to open the season. The rest of the schedule is a mix of easier teams, like
Oakland and tougher teams like Green Bay and Philadelphia. They have some tough
games at the end of November and beginning of December, which include San
Diego, at New Orleans, Tampa, and at Minnesota.
All in all, I look for the Falcons
to be a more competitive team and not be outscored by over 9 points per
game. That probably won't show much in the win column, but it will make for better football in Atlanta. However, I don’t see where
they will get much more than 5 wins in 2008. That doesn’t mean they aren’t on the right track. It means it takes time to rebuild a franchise. If they can develop their young talent and have another good off-season in 2009 they may be able to start thinking about competing for a playoff spot.
Atlanta’s
Record: 5-11 – NFC South 4th
Place; No Playoffs
That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008. I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July. I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008. Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews. You have made writing these a lot of fun.
As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.
With the NFL being on the eve of the free agency signing period, fans are gearing up for a quick fix. I thought I would explore the history of the free agency period and see what makes the top teams the top teams.
Before I get to that I want to remind people that Dr X and I have been writing prescriptions for all 32 teams. This is our view on what areas each team needs to improve in if they want to have a more successful 2008. The final prescription for the top 8 teams in the NFL last season was posted today. If you want to check those out they can be viewed at:
One of the things that NFL fans are consistently guilty of is hoping that their team makes a big splash in free agency or in the first round of the NFL draft. Now that the 2007 season has ended fans begin the countdown for when free agency officially begins. There are some big names to be had, most notably: Assante Samuel, Randy Moss, Alan Faneca, Lance Briggs, and Corey Williams.
Furthermore with Zach Thomas, Alge Crumpler, and other cap casualties being released there is a chance for teams to make quite a splash in free agency. Dallas has already done that by signing Zach Thomas. But is that a good idea? Is it better to have a Daniel Snyder or Jerry Jones mentality and buy the best players that money can buy or is it better to have a more conservative approach like Ted Thompson and stay clear of the dangerous waters of free agency?
I am a firm believer that the best way to improve your team is to invest a lot of money in your scouting department and draft as many good players as you can. The NFL draft is the most important part of building an NFL team. Draft picks are to be treated like gold, even the 7th round picks.
While many people tune out after the first round there is a lot of talent to be had later in the draft. After the draft is also essential when the unsigned free agent rookie class is signed. I know people get sick of hearing that every year and would rather concentrate on the big names that create dreams of instant Super Bowls. But it really is true.
To demonstrate that I decided to make a starting team that consisted of 2 backs and 2 receivers that plays a 3-4 defense. This list is some notable players selected after the 45th pick, or basically about halfway through the second round that played on an NFL roster in 2007. This is not the best list of players selected after the 45th pick. I tried to give deference to players that were selected in the lower rounds or were undrafted to demonstrate the value that is available in that part of the draft.
