I present to you my fourth regular season letter of the 2008 season.  I appreciate feedback of things that I failed to mention, but please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team.  I could do a newsletter for just one team.  Trying to mention every team or player in one newsletter would be impossibility.  I hereby present to you a recap of the opening weekend in the NFL. 

Standings

AFC East                                                                        NFC East

1. Buffalo (4-0)                                                            1. New York Giants (3-0)

2. New England (2-1)                                                2. Washington (3-1)

3. NY Jets (2-2)                                                          3. Dallas (3-1)

4. Miami (1-2)                                                             4. Philadelphia (2-2)

 

AFC South                                                                  NFC South

1. Tennessee (4-0)                                                    1. Carolina (3-1)           

2. Jacksonville (2-2)                                                   2. Tampa Bay (3-1)

3. Indianapolis (1-2)                                                   3. New Orleans (2-2)

4. Houston (0-3)                                                          4. Atlanta (2-2)

 

AFC North                                                                    NFC North

1.Pittsburgh (3-1)                                                        1.Green Bay (2-2)           

2. Baltimore (2-1)                                                        2.Chicago (2-2)

3.Cleveland (1-3)                                                        3. Minnesota (1-3)

4.Cincinnati (0-4)                                                         4. Detroit (0-3)

 

 AFC West                                                                    NFC West

1. Denver (3-1)                                                            1. Arizona (2-2)           

2. San Diego (2-2)                                                      2. San Francisco (2-2)

3. Oakland (1-3)                                                          3. Seattle (1-2)

4. Kansas City (1-3)                                                   4. St Louis (0-4)

MVP of the Week:  When you’ve played as well and as long as Brett Favre has it becomes quite a challenge to do something you have never done before.  Brett Favre managed to do that by having his first 6-touchdown pass game of his career.  He was 24 for 34 with 289 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 1 pick.  At running back Larry Johnson had 28 carries for 198 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns as the Chiefs got their first win of the year.  At receiver it is hard not to go with Coles who had 8 catches for 105 yards and 3 first half touchdowns. Muhsin Muhammad had a great game too with 8 catches for 147 yards and 1 touchdown.  

Loser of the Week: Ryan Grant and Donald Driver were very disappointing in the Packers loss.  Driver had 1 catch for 8 yards.  Grant had 15 carries for 20 yards.  The Packers need to get more out of their skill players not named Jennings if they want to win tough games.  Kurt Warner is a surprising name to put on the list.  He was 40 for 57 with 472 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Those are usually numbers that make the MVP of the Week.  Problem is he had 3 fumbles lost and 3 interceptions.  That is very poor for a veteran and former MVP.  Finally, Marion Barber has to do better than 8 carries for 26 yards.  He needs more touches and he needs to be more productive with the touches he got.   Whenever Dallas gets away from running Barber, there offense suffers.  They need to learn lessons from the Giants playoff loss, not repeat them.    

Game of the Week: There were a lot of good games this week.  Washington and Dallas played a fantastic game.  Washington had a 20-17 lead in the 4th quarter.  They added a field goal with 10:48 left in the game.  On their next drive they proceeded to take a 6-minute plus drive for another field goal with 3:22.  That drive not only exhausted precious time, but also all of Dallas’s timeouts.  Dallas then scored a touchdown with 1:42 left in the game, but did not recover the onside kick.  Honorable mention to the Jacksonville and Houston contest, which was won by a Scobee field goal in overtime. Another Honorable mention to the Monday Night Game, which Pittsburgh won over Baltimore in OT.   

The Bay of Pigs:  It would have to be that Cleveland and Cincinnati game.  It improved in the 4th quarter to finish 20-12 with Cleveland winning the game.  However, Cleveland trailed 6-3 at the end of three quarters.  Part of the problem was Carson Palmer being injured.  That prevented Cincinnati from effectively passing the ball.  This is a tough group to justify.  These teams are still a long way from being competitive.   

The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action): The worse game time decision I saw was Andy Reid’s decision to run the ball 4 straight times at the Chicago defense at their goal line trailing 24-20.  You would think McNabb on play action or at least one pass would have made sense.  Instead they turned the ball over on downs, couldn’t stop the Bears to get the ball back with meaningful time, and cost themselves a better chance to win the game.  The Eagles are not a smash mouth power running team and the Bears are great at stopping that.  Why he didn’t even pass it once is beyond me.   

The second decision I would question had nothing to do with the games.  Why did Arizona choose to stay East?  It seemed like a solid decision at the time.  The Cardinals stayed on the East Coast to prevent having to travel from Washington to Arizona, back to Arizona, and back to New York.  Instead of looking like they prepared for the game they looked like they took a vacation.  They had 34 points scored on them in the 2nd quarter and trailed 34-0 at the half.  Looking back, you have to wonder if the decision to stay east was worth taking a team out of their normal preparation routine.  Based on this poor performance I would say it wasn’t.   

Injury Report: There were a couple scary injuries this week.  Boldin took a vicious hit from Eric Smith in the final minutes of the Jets & Cardinals game.  He appears to be fine and his status is up in the air for next week.   

Andre Frazier was carted off the field on the opening kickoff of the Monday Night Game.  The severity of his spine injury was not known at the time I typed my letter.   

Aaron Rodgers injured his shoulder against the Buccaneers.  It is a shoulder sprain and not a separated shoulder as initially feared.  His status is questionable for next week.   

The Texans lost starting safety C. C. Brown with a broken arm for the season.  That is a big blow to a secondary already playing without Robinson.   

Finally, the Steelers are losing running backs fast.  Parker is out already with a sprained knee. Rashard Mendenhall fractured his shoulder in the Monday Night game and will be placed on IR.

Overall Impressions of Week 1:

1) Brett Favre’s big day – What do you say about a guy who you think has done everything there is to do in the NFL, yet goes out and accomplishes a career first?  Favre had thrown for 5 touchdowns with Green Bay 3 times.  The most recent was a September 27, 1998 game at Carolina.  In fact, the last time he threw 4 touchdown passes was a Monday Night Game against Carolina in October of the 2005 season.  So to say that 6 touchdown passes was a surprise would be an understatement.   

Favre had a number of things going for him.  The Arizona defense was very unimpressive.  There were a lot of plays with Jet receivers wide open.  The Cardinals turned the ball over 7 times.  That will help the offense’s cause.  Finally, he was sharp and put some perfectly thrown balls in tough places.  Other than a terrible first quarter interception he was on the money.  When you combine the three you get 6- touchdown passes.   

It’s easy to get caught up in the moment with this.   Last year McNabb had 381 yards and 4 touchdowns in a 56-21 victory over Detroit.  Detroit finished the season as 31st ranked passing yard defense and touchdown passes allowed.  Philly never played a game like that again.  They scored over 30 points only two more times that year.  The Eagles finished the season with the 17th ranked scoring offense.  McNabb would have 15 touchdowns in his other 13 starts.   

Favre had the right attitude after the game.  He was happy about the win, excited about the accomplishment, but also realized it was only one game.  He said its too early to book playoff or Super Bowl tickets.  He’s been through enough battles to realize that it only gets harder.  That is why you want a guy like that on your team.  He never gets too high with the highs or too low with the lows.  He keeps good and bad games in perspective.  He will help keep this team grounded and working toward getting better on offense.  

Still, many people were beginning to question whether he could still play or whether he made the right decision to comeback.  What this performance does do is validate that he can still play quarterback in the NFL at a high level.   The Oak Grove High School quarterback will not have to worry about Favre coming back to Mississippi midseason to take his job back.   

Every time people start asking those questions is when Favre comes up with some of his best performances.  It was nice to see an athlete who has had such a difficult off-season have another performance for the ages.   

2) Washington’s Upset of Dallas – Washington is a team that has showed me a lot in the early part of the season.  They were probably the worst looking offense in the NFL after the first week of the season in which they scored 7 points on the Giants.  They have responded by scoring 26.3 points per game in their 3 game winning streak.   

Jason Campbell has been terrific.  He has 6 touchdowns, 0 picks, 878 yards passing, and a 102.2 QB rating.  For a young quarterback learning a new system that is quite an accomplishment.   Santana Moss has been reborn with 27 catches for 421 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Portis is doing well in the running game.  He has 369 yards rushing, 4.3 yards per carry, and 3 rushing touchdowns.   

The Redskins are in a terribly tough spot.  The division is a combined 11-4, with three of the losses being division games.  3-1 would have them as the division favorite in the NFC North or West.  In the East they are a game out of last place. 8-8 or 9-7 could be good for last place in the NFC East this year.   

The schedule is about to take a turn for the better.  They play @ Philly, which is a tough game.  Then they host St Louis, Cleveland, and travel to Detroit.  They could easily be 6-2 at the half point of the season.   

They still have some tough games in the second half of the season.  They will play the division again.  They have Pittsburgh.  Winning at Dallas was a game that many didn’t expect them to get.  If they can beat Philly next week they will have gone 2-1 on the road in the division and be set up very well for the 2nd half of the season.   

3) Is the Gold Rush Back? – The phrase that pays for 49er fans is that the Gold Rush is Back.  At 2-2 the 49ers are tied for 1st place in the weak NFC West.  Do the 49er fans know something that we don’t know?   

I pegged the 49ers for 4-12 this year.  Seeing they have won 2 games already and have yet to play St Louis it seems apparent that they will surpass that.  JT O’Sullivan has played very well to start the year.  O’Sullivan has 68 completions in 111 attempts for 962 yards, 4 touchdowns, 3 picks, and a 90.0 QB rating.  That is a surprise to me, even with Mike Martz there.  Those are numbers the 49ers haven’t seen since the Jeff Garcia days.  Frank Gore has also started strong with 369 yards rushing through his first 4 games.   

The problem with the 49ers has surprisingly been their defense.  Those were thought to be the strengths of the team.   The defense ranks 21st in points per game allowed.  They rank 25th in total yards allowed, 22nd in pass yards allowed, and 23rd in rushing yards allowed.   

That is what costs them their games against the Cardinals and Saints.  Those offenses were able to put points up on the board.   Seattle also scored 30 points in their 33-30 OT loss to the 49ers.  Seattle had no receivers that game.  San Fran’s only impressive game was against Detroit.  Join the club.  Everyone looks impressive against Detroit.  

The 49ers are no longer the push over squad they have been known for the last 5 years.  Their offense has been consistently among the worst in the NFL.  Credit a lot of that to Alex Smith not being lost in a new system every year.  O’Sullivan was chosen for this job in large part on his previous experience in Martz’s scheme.  Since O’Sullivan has become the starter the team is moving the ball well and the offense as a whole is starting to hold up its end of the bargain.  The 49ers have spent a lot of free agent dollars and draft picks on upgrading the defense.  If that can come around they will win more games.   

If they were in the NFC East they would clearly be the last place club.  In the NFC West things are up for grabs.  The Rams are a lost cause.  The Seahawks may rebound if they can get some healthy receivers.  The Cardinals looked sharp in their first two games before losing the next two games.   

We’ll start to learn a little bit more about the 49ers over the next 4 weeks.  3 of their 4 games are at home.   They host New England and Philly, travel to New York Giants, and head home to play Seattle.  If they are still 4-4 or 5-3 after those 4 games I’ll start to have a little more faith.  While the 49ers will probably do no better than .500, that could still keep them in the division hunt for much of the season.  

4) The horrific St Louis Rams – St Louis continues to struggle beyond belief.  This has to be the worst defense in the NFL.  The record for points allowed in a single NFL season is 533 points, which was surrendered by the 2-14 Baltimore Colts back in 1981.  The Rams are on pace to allow 588 points in 2008.  If you go back to last year they have allowed 38.4 points per game in their last 7 games.  I have watched a lot of bad defensive football.  The 2005 Rams and 2001 Colts are the most recent bad defenses that come to mind.   The Dolphins were awful the first 8 games of the 2007 season.  However, if the Rams keep this up their 2008 unit will take the cake.  

That is what is so puzzling about the Bulger benching.  He plays on a team that is allowing 38.4 points per game in its last 7 games.  Jackson had 159 yards rushing in his first 3 games.  The offensive line has given up 13 sacks through the first 4 games.  What do you expect him to do?  Granted, 52 for 89 with 519 yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 picks, and a 73.2 QB rating does not scream keep my job.  But that team is not losing because of Marc Bulger.  Joe Montana, John Elway, or Dan Marino in their prime couldn’t win with this team. 

Plus, why bring in Trent Green?  He’s a 15-year veteran that is 38 years old.  He hasn’t won a game since 2006.  Are you building for the future?  Bulger is 31-years old.  If you aren’t going to bring in a young guy to groom for the future keep Bulger in and let him work through this mess.   The team has no future with Green other than as a back up.   

Obviously management had some of the same concerns. Linehan became the first coaching casualty on Monday.   He has an 11-25 record in 2 & ¼ seasons.  The team is getting progressively worse.  The Rams can’t score points, can’t stop other teams from scoring, and are poorly prepared.  It is debatable whether everyone is playing hard. 

He had clearly lost the team.  Defensive Coordinator Jim Haslett has been picked to turn this disaster around.  The offensive nucleus still has a few years left in it.  If the Rams can find someone that can bring talent into the organization and properly motivate and teach these guys the Rams could be competitive in a few years.  Right now all they are competing for is the first pick in the draft. 

5) Rodgers comes back to Earth – It’s funny how the message boards have shifted a little bit.  After the first 3 games the Packers had clearly made the better decision.  Rodgers had yet to throw a pick, Favre’s Jets were 1-2, and the Packers were in control of the weak NFC North.  Then Favre threw 6 touchdown passes and Rodgers suffered 3 picks and a shoulder injury.  Chicago wins to pull into a tie with the Pack at 2-2.  Suddenly, Ted Thompson is an ####.   

I am pulling for the Favre trade to work out for Favre and the Jets.  I though Packer management botched that and have addressed that on a number of occasions.  However, I’d be a hypocrite if I said that 2 games were too soon to tell, but 4 games the picture was clear.  It is very early.  Rodgers will play well again and Favre’s isn’t going to throw 6 touchdowns per week going forward.  

I’m not going to get into comparisons between the Jets and Packers.  They are irrelevant.  Here are 3 problems with Rodgers that I have seen early in the season.  

a) Way too many hits – Rodgers has taken 9 sacks, which is tied for 10th most in the NFL.  The problem is that Favre took only 15 sacks all of last year.  It’s not just the sacks he’s taking, but all the hits he’s taking.  I said that durability was going to be a major concern for him in the preseason and my fear has been realized 4 games into the season.  He has to do a better job of standing upright.

Not taking hits is a product of having a quick release, staying around the pocket, and familiarity with an offense.  While Rodgers is in his 3rd year in the system it is his first year playing in it.  If Rodgers can’t stop taking hits he will miss games later in the season.  The Packers can’t make the playoffs if he’s not in there.  Their backups have no meaningful NFL experience and are not ready for primetime.   

b) Too much short passing – Rodgers is averaging 7.6 yards per attempt, which ranks 9th in the NFL.  Many people would say this is an unfair criticism.  The problem is that in the all of the downfield passes are going to one player, Jennings.  The exception to that would be the Detroit game.  Again, everyone looks good against Detroit.   

The Packers are running the screens, slants, and dump plays. The only one getting any production is Jennings.  His 482 yards receiving accounts for 50.2 % of the Packers passing yards.  Driver is second on the team with 16 catches for 174 yards.  Jennings is averaging 19.3 yards per catch.   Everyone else is around 10-12 yards per catch.   

That is a deviation from last year.  Last year the Packers had 4 receivers at 575 yards or over and had 4 players over 12 yards per catch.  Most of the players were in the 12-15 yard per catch range.  No offense can consistently succeed relying on one weapon.  This offense has to get more than Jennings involved in the passing game, particularly downfield.  If they don’t they will continue to struggle.  

c) Horrible 3rd quarter adjustments – This is as much McCarthy’s fault as Rodgers.  They both have to adjust better to what the defense is doing coming out of the locker room.  Green Bay has scored 20 points in the 3rd quarter this year.  7 of those points were on a punt return.  Teams are seeing this short passing game and making adjustments at half time.  The Packers are running the same thing and their offense is bogging down.  

In fact, they haven’t been very good in the 4th quarter either.  Against Tampa Bay their only scoring was a Woodson touchdown.  Against Dallas they got 7 points on a QB sneak late in the game trailing 27-9.  Minnesota only allowed one offensive touchdown in the fourth quarter of that game.  That was generated on Grant’s only long run of the year.  Even against Detroit 14 of the 24 points 4th quarter points scored were defensive.   

What that tells me is that the Packers are trying to run the ball and short pass the ball every play and that they think teams can’t stop that even if they know its coming.  The reason teams couldn’t stop that last year was because teams were scared to death of Favre throwing a 50-yard strike and were giving the underneath stuff.  Rodgers doesn’t have that type of credibility.  

As teams learn the Packers aren’t going downfield to anyone but Jennings they are adjusting.  McCarthy has to do a better job of adjusting to the defenses and call plays to counteract.  If quarterbacking in the NFL were just throwing 3 yards slants there would be more people doing well.  You can’t win with that conservative of an offense.  Ask Herm Edwards how that works.   

The good news for the Packers is that there are only 4 games that have passed and as long as Rodger’s shoulder is okay they can continue to improve in these areas.   Four games are too early to pass judgment, but it is early enough to make some observations.  From what I have seen so far reports of the Packers being better off without Favre were a little premature to say the least. 

A Look Ahead: 

Street Cred’s 2008 record:  37-22

1) Seattle (1-2) at New York Giants (3-0):  The Seahawks really need this game.  Branch and Engram appear to be back in the mix after missing the first 3 games with injuries.  Burress is suspended for this game, which is a big blow for the Giants offense.  If the game were in Seattle I might pick the Seahawks to steal a game here.  I think the Seahawks are not very tough on the road and I like the Giants defense right now.  I think Jacobs does just enough, Manning makes just enough plays, and the defense makes just enough stops to get a tough victory at home.  Winner: New York Giants  

2) Washington (3-1) at Philadelphia (2-2): This is another tough game to pick, due to the quality of both teams and the Westbrook injury.  In the two games where Brian Westbrook was healthy the Eagles scored 31 and 37points.  Since got injured they have scored 15 and 20 points.  His ankle is still bothering him and it is unknown whether he will play against Washington.  Westbrook is a special player that does so many things both running and receiving.  If he were 100% I would like Philly.  With as good as Washington is playing right now and how inconsistent the Philly defense has played I am going to go with Washington.  I look for Portis to have another nice day and for Campbell to continue his hot start.  Winner: Washington   

3) Tampa Bay (3-1) at Denver (3-1): This is one of the more interesting games of the week.  Tampa seems to find ways to hang in there and win games that they probably shouldn’t.  Denver is coming off a tough week in which they lost at Kansas City.  Denver has a great offense.  They are 2nd in points scored, 1st in yards gained, 1st in first downs gained, 2nd in passing yards, and 12th in rushing yards.  That’s a recipe for success.  The problem is that they don’t even have an average defense.  They are 31st in points allowed, yards allowed, and passing yards allowed.  They are 26th in rushing yards allowed.  The only defense that is worse is St Louis, which is 32nd in both points and yards allowed.  Cutler has thrown at least one pick in 3 straight games.  I think Tampa Bay has a recipe to win in Denver.  Graham is a physical back that can pound the Denver run defense, but they need to get better play out of Griese.  Griese has 6 picks in his last 2 games, has yet to complete 60% of his passes, and has a QB rating of 62.5.  I could go either way with this, so I went with the home team.  Denver always seems to play well at home.  While Graham will have a big day, I think Cutler makes more plays that Griese and the Broncos bounce back from a terrible performance in Kansas City.  Winner:  Denver  

4) Pittsburgh (3-1) at Jacksonville (2-2): Pittsburgh’s offense looks lost right now.  They have multiple running backs hurt right now.  Big Ben is taking a lot of sacks.  The defense is playing well, but they need to offense to step up to the plate.  The Steelers went 8 quarters between offensive touchdowns.  From Ward’s 2nd quarter touchdown against Cleveland to Holmes’s 3rd quarter touchdown against Baltimore; the Steelers have looked lost on offense.   Jacksonville hasn’t exactly blown the doors off the barn either, but they are getting more offensive production in the last few weeks.  I like the Jags to protect their home field and win a very physical game.  Winner: Jacksonville  

5) Minnesota (1-3) at New Orleans (2-2): New Orleans runs into trouble when they can’t get balance in their play calling.  That is true for a lot of teams, but it has been a glaring issue for the Saints.  Against San Fran they passed 35 times and ran 32 times.  Against Tampa Bay they passed the ball 32 times and rushed the ball 27 times.  Those two games resulted in wins.  On the flip side Against Washington they passed 33 times and ran the ball 19.  Against Denver they passed 48 times to 25 rushes.  The problem in this game is going to be that Minnesota stops the run so well that New Orleans is going to have to stay committed to running the ball like Fisher, Fox, and McCarthy did, even when it isn’t working.  I don’t think Sean Payton is patient enough to do that.  The other concern is that the Saints have the 22nd ranked run defense.  That bodes well for Adrian Peterson.  Brees will be able to put up some passing yards in this game, but I like the Vikings to go on the road and win this game.  Winner: Minnesota  

and the rest… 

6) Kansas City (1-3) at Carolina (3-1): I know Kansas City won their first game, but Carolina can actually stop the run and play defense.  Denver can’t.  I like the Panthers to prevail in this game and Kansas City’s offense to comeback to earth.  Winner:  Carolina  

7) Chicago (2-2) at Detroit (0-3):  Detroit has to show me something before I pick them to win.  I see Kitna throwing some picks, the Bears gaining some yards, and the Lions losing another game.  Winner: Chicago  

8) Atlanta (2-2) at Green Bay (2-2): It’s hard to pick this game when I don’t know if Rodgers is going to start.  The Pack can’t stop the run right now and Turner is off to a good start.  He leads the NFL in rushing yards.  If Rodgers can’t go the Falcons won’t have to worry about falling behind and can establish the run.  If Rodgers plays I think he makes enough plays to win the game.  If he doesn’t play the Pack will probably lose.  I say he toughs it out and makes the start.  I’m taking Green Bay, but I think it will be closer than people think.  Winner:  Green Bay  

9) San Diego (2-2) at Miami (1-2): Unless Ronnie Brown scores 5 more touchdowns I don’t see the Dolphins winning this game.  They will play competitive, but San Diego wins going away.  LT is heating up and should have a nice day.  Winner:  San Diego  

10) Tennessee (4-0) at Baltimore (2-1):  Baltimore is exceeding expectations.  The fact they took the Steelers to OT surprised me.  That said Tennessee is playing great football and Baltimore isn’t going to score a lot of points in this game either.  Winner: Tennessee  

11) Indianapolis (1-2) at Houston (0-3):  Houston has been a major disappointment to start the season.  I wasn’t thinking playoffs, but I expected them to show better.  Jacksonville was their first good game.   I like the Colts to get back to .500 this week.  The bye came at a great time for Indy with all their early season injuries.  Winner: Indianapolis  

12) Buffalo (4-0) at Arizona (2-2):  I think Arizona’s NY disaster was a blip.  They aren’t going to play that bad all year.  They aren’t going to turn the ball over 7 times.  They picked the wrong week to get sloppy with the ball against an offense that had a lot of prove.  Buffalo has been good early, but their opponents have a combined record of 4-10.  Oakland and St Louis are a mess, Seattle was really injured, and Jacksonville was a good win.  The line is even right now, and I would expect Buffalo to be favored by game time.  I think Arizona rebounds from that loss and upsets Buffalo.  Buffalo is playing on the road for a second straight week, which is a tough proposition in the NFL.  Winner: Arizona  

13) New England (2-1) at San Francisco (2-2) – You give the Hood 2 weeks to prepare and he usually comes through.  New England is 6-2 under Darth Hood coming off a bye.  The average score has been 26.9 to 11.9.  The only years the Patriots lost were 2002 and 2000.  Those happen to be the only two years the Patriots missed the playoffs.  I like the Patriots to bounce back in this game.  They’ve had 2 weeks to think about that Miami stomp down and San Fran isn’t tearing up the defensive side of the ball.  New England won’t score 49 points like we might have predicted at the beginning of the year, but they’ll score enough to win.  Winner: New England  

14) Cincinnati (0-4) at Dallas (3-1):  Palmer is still iffy and Dallas will be looking to take out the frustrations on somebody.  That lucky somebody is the 0-4 Bengals.  Dallas wins in a blowout.  Winner: Dallas  

Byes:  Cleveland, Oakland, New York Jets, and St. Louis

 

That’s all for this week.  Enjoy the opening week of football and I look forward to reading your comments this week.  

The beginning of the season is always an interesting time for NFL fans.  If a team gets out to a 3-0 start the fans are elated that the Super Bowl trophy is headed for their city.  If the team gets out to a 0-3 start the September games are suddenly not important.  The playoffs are decided by December football.  

I’ve watched NFL football for almost 20 years and seen it go both ways.  I remember the 1993 Dolphins.  They started their season 9-2 and looked like the contender in the AFC.  They came crashing back to Earth, finished 9-7, and missed the playoffs.  Conversely, the 1988 49ers started their season 6-5 and looked to be in danger of missing the playoffs. They made the playoffs at 10-6 and won the Super Bowl.  

One thing that no one can dispute is that each game accounts for 1/16th of the schedule. It is always better to be hot at the end of the year heading into the playoffs than it is to be hot at the beginning of the season and out of gas at the end.  However, no matter how you slice or dice it a NFL team needs to get to 9-7 or 10-6 to have a reasonable shot of making the playoffs.  A strong start takes pressure off as the season progresses.  A slow start begins the digging of a hole that gets deeper with each loss

The other thing that no one can dispute is that the NFL will surprise you each week.  Just when you think you have things figured out it turns in another crazy direction.  That is why we as fans love this league.  Any team can beat any other team on any given Sunday.  

I am going to look at three teams today.  The first is a team that has surprised me early in the season that I think is going to continue to contend.  The second is a team that is off to a bit of a slow start that I think will rebound.  The third is a team that has disappointed and I think will continue to disappoint for the remainder of the season.  

1) Early Season Contender (Tennessee Titans 4-0): This is a team that I never seem to get behind.  I always think they lack receivers.  I always think they don’t have enough offensive punch.  I didn’t like their draft this year and I’ve never been sold on Vince Young. This is a team that I always seem to doubt that wins five or six more games than I expect.  I am here to say that I have been wrong about the Titans and that this team is for real. 

Let’s start with the strength of this team, which is their ridiculously good defense.  Going into this week the Titans were second in points allowed, fourth in yards allowed, third in first downs allowed, fourth in passing yards allowed, and 10th in rushing yards allowed.  That is a defense that is clicking in all facets of the game. 

Against a Minnesota team that is among the best in the NFL at running the ball and stopping the run, the Titans excelled in both areas.   They held Adrian Peterson to 18 carries for 80 yards and two touchdowns.  One of those runs was a 28-yard scoring scamper.  That means on the other 17 carries they gave up three yards per carry.   The Titans also forced four turnovers. 

On offense they only managed 76 yards rushing, but scored three rushing touchdowns.  The Vikings allowed only seven rushing touchdowns all of last year.  White and Johnson has been an excellent combo for the Titans on the ground.

With a defense that is stopping both the run and the pass and an offense that is running the ball effectively; the Titans don’t need much out of their passing game.  Vince Young didn’t look like he was going to get the job done.  Veteran quarterback Kerry Collins is making just enough positive plays without the big mistakes.  The Titans look poised to keep winning ball games.  Fisher has said that as long as the Titans keep winning Kerry Collins will keep starting.  At this point that would appear to be a wise decision. 

The Titans play Baltimore, have a bye, and then play at Kansas City.  Then we find out if they are ready to seize the division when they host Indianapolis on Monday Night Football.  I expect the Titans to enter that game with a 5-1 or 6-0 record.  I expect the Titans to contend in the AFC South for the rest of the season.  With the Brady injury, San Diego’s slow start, and Indy’s slow start the AFC is up for grabs.  There is no reason to think the Titans won’t be in the middle of the Super Bowl trophy hunt when it is all said and done.  

2) Early Season Disappointment That Will Rebound (NY Jets 2-2) – This is a team that has been all over the map in 2008.  They looked lost on offense and solid on defense the first two weeks of the season.  The defense allowed 33 points in those two games, but the offense only scored 30 points.  The result was a 1-1 start beating the Dolphins and losing to the Brady-less Patriots.  

Then the offense came alive.  The Jets scored 85 points against the Chargers and Cardinals.  However, the defense has appeared clueless giving up 83 points.  The result is a 2-2 record and questions about the identity of the New York Jets.  

This really shouldn’t be unexpected. Team Chemistry will overcome Individual Talent any Sunday in the NFL.   The Jets have so many new players from a year ago.  They have new lineman in Alan Faneca and Damien Woody.  They have two new tight ends in Bubba Franks and rookie Dustin Keller.  They have a new fullback in Tony Richardson.   On defense they added DT Kris Jenkins, LB Calvin Pace, and first round pick Vernon Gholston.  

That was all before they decided to switch directions at quarterback in the beginning of August and bring in 38-year-old future Hall of Famer Brett Favre.  This team has great individual talent, but they have to develop chemistry.  Chemistry is hard to develop in a month and the result is a team that has looked good in spots, but hasn’t been able to put together a complete game yet.   The game against the Cardinals was their best attempt to date, especially in the first half. 

Brett Favre’s overall numbers were good before the Jets win against the Cardinals.  He was third in the AFC in passer rating with a 98.7 and had six touchdowns to three picks.  Now his stats stand as follows: 87 completions, 124 attempts, 70.2 comp %, 935 yards, 12 touchdowns, 4 picks, and a QB rating of 110.8.

He is leading the NFL in both touchdowns and QB rating.  That’s not bad for a guy who has only been running this offense since the beginning of August and is turning 39-years old in a couple weeks. 

It’s clear that reports of his demise were greatly exaggerated.  He is anything but washed up and he can help this team compete in the AFC East. While it is clear Favre isn’t going to throw six touchdowns every week, I highly doubt the defense is going to continue giving up 41.5 points per game.  The Jets should find a happy median once their players get on the same page. 

The bye comes at a very nice time.  Favre gets to rest his ankle for a week and gets another two weeks to work with his offense.  The offense has something solid to build on going into the bye.   The defense can regroup and get back to playing the football they played the first two weeks of the season. 

Favre has only one losing season in his 17-year career and I don’t expect that to change.  The Jets play the Bengals, @ Raiders, Chiefs, @ Bills, and St. Louis.  There is no reason to think that if they continue to improve that they couldn’t be 6-3 after that stretch.  That should set them up well to compete for either the AFC East or a Wild Card Spot.    

3) Early Season Disaster (Cleveland Browns 1-3): This is a disaster that I just don’t see improving.  Granted they won the game against Cincinnati, but this team has so many problems, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. 

Let’s start with the offense, which was supposed to be the strength of the team.  In 2007 the Browns ranked eighth in points scored, eighth in yards gained, 12th in passing yards, and 10th in rushing yards.  It was pick your poison.  Do you want Edwards and his 16 touchdown receptions to beat you?  Do you want Winslow to get tough yards down the middle?  Do you want Jamal Lewis to pound the ball up the middle? 

This year it’s a different story.  Headed into the Cincinnati game the Browns ranked 32nd in points scored and 31st in yards gained, 29th in passing yards, and 30th in rushing yards.  Anderson had a 43.5 rating.  Edwards had eight catches for 73 yards and 0 touchdowns.  Lewis had 44 carries for 156 yards and no touchdowns.

Against the Bengals they had a chance to break out.  Carson Palmer did not play due to an elbow injury.  The Bengals were 20th in points allowed, 24th in yards allowed, 12th in passing yards allowed, and 28th in rushing yards allowed.  This was a chance to dominate a bad team and get their swagger back.    Yet at the end of the third quarter the Browns trailed 6-3. 

They finally got something in the fourth quarter.  When it was all said and done Anderson went 15 for 24 with 138 yards, one touchdown pass, one pick, and a rating of 74.7.  Good if you come into the game with a 43.5 rating, but not good by NFL standards.  Lewis had 25 carries for 79 yards, and one touchdown.  Definitively not what you are looking for against the 28th ranked run defense.  Edwards had three catches for 22 yards and one touchdown.  Not enough production for someone who was one of the top-5 receivers in the NFL in 2007. 

Yes, the Browns got a much-needed win.  But they trailed 6-3 through three quarters in a game against one of the five worst teams in the NFL that was playing without the services of their starting quarterback.  That just doesn’t inspire confidence that this team is going to turn it around.  Further complicating things was Jamal Lewis having to separate Edwards and Anderson on the sideline.  Neither should be mad at the other.  They both stink right now and if they are going to get out of this mess they need to work together.   Bad chemistry between two of the most important players on the offense does not scream playoff run.  

The Browns have a very tough schedule and things aren’t getting easier.  They have a bye before playing the Giants, @ Redskins, @ Jacksonville, and Baltimore.   I see 1-3 or 0-4 against that schedule.  Even if they recover from that they still play the Broncos, Colts, Eagles, Steelers, and Titans.   This was not the schedule to start 1-3 against.  

I am beginning to feel that I overestimated this team.  I thought with their offense maturing another year and the additions they made on defense that this team could compete for the playoffs.  I thought wrong.  I would be shocked if this team finished better than 6-10.   There are just not enough positives in place to expect much more than that.  

Those are my three teams.  Which team do you think has the best chance of maintaining their first quarter dominance?  Which team do you think is going to turn it around?  Which team do you think is a dead team walking?  Let me know your thoughts.

Usually I write my newsletter on Tuesday and then focus on the big topic of the NFL week in an expanded Thursday article.  The big story of the weekend was supposed to be Rodgers leading the Packers in the first game of the post Favre era. That story we knew about since March and it took a weird turn over the summer.  I had planned on writing about that since July. That quickly changed 15 offensive plays into the Patriots season when the Chiefs Bernard Pollard hit Brady's knee and ended his season. Therefore I decided to address both topics.

Let's start with Brady. The first thing I wanted to address was whether that hit was dirty. I think the Patriots and any of their fans that have been throwing that out there should be embarrassed. Randy Moss says that it looked dirty to him, but he wasn't sure. Bill Belichick says that he teaches his players to hit from the knee up and the shoulder down. That's all fine and good. If a player has a chance to make a tackle like that and bypasses it for the more difficult lower hit I would agree with that. That is clearly against the rules.  But sometimes you are blocked into a quarterback before he lets go of the ball.  A quarterback is one of eleven players.  Defenders have to be able to make plays against all of the opposing players.

If a defender can't do what Bernard Pollard did than it is time to put the red jersey on the quarterbacks and don't allow them to be touched. Make them play with flags in pink skirts. The ref didn't throw the flag on the play. The NFL did not issue a fine. It was a legal hit. The ball was in the process of leaving his hand. It wasn't even close to being a late hit or an intentional low shot.  The man felt horrible about it as soon as it happened.  You could tell that from his body language.  It was an unfortunate play, but a perfectly legal one.

Where do the Patriots go from here? Is there precedence for a team losing a star starting quarterback this early in the season? These were four notable recent instances I could think of.

1991: Randall Cunningham: 1990 was a very good year for Cunningham. He had the following numbers: 271 completions in 465 attempts 58.3 completion percentage, 3,466 30 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, and a 91.6 QB rating. He also rushed for 942 yards and 5 touchdowns. While the AP named Joe Montana the MVP, Cunningham was the Pro Football Writers of America MVP. The Eagles went 10-6, but lost in the 1st round of the playoffs. You could argue that given the surrounding cast on offense and the things Cunningham did on the ground and through the air that he was more valuable to the Eagles than Brady is to the Patriots. 

In 1991 many thought the Eagles were a favorite to take the next step.  Cunningham attempted exactly 4 passes before suffering a season ending knee injury in the season opener against Green Bay. The Eagles would rely on a defense led by Reggie White that allowed the 5th fewest points in the NFL. When Jim McMahon was in there they actually went 8-3. However, he missed 4 games and the Eagles were 1-3 in those games. The Eagles would start the season 3-5, before ending the season 7-1 and missing the playoffs with a 10-6 record. They were one of the hottest teams in the NFL to close the season. 

1999:  Vinny Testaverde:  He had finally found his home.  In 1998 he went 12-1 as the starter and helped lead the New York Jets to an unexpected AFC Championship birth.  They would go on to lose to the defending champion Denver Broncos.  Vinny went 259 for 421, threw for 3,256 yards, 29 touchdowns, 7 picks, and a 101.6 QB rating.  Vinny was named to the Pro Bowl.    

The Jets were expected to compete for the title in 1999.  That changed 15 throws into he season when Testaverde torn his Achilles tendon and was out for the year.  The Jets defense remained tough all season finishing 9th in the league.  But the offense couldn’t get out of its own way and started the season 1-6.  Ray Lucas got hot in the second half of the season and the Jets salvaged an 8-8 season in a brutal division where every team finished at least 8-8.  They did not qualify for the playoffs. 

1999: Trent Green: The Rams weren't expected to be a Super Bowl contender, but they were expected to improve from 4-12 with rookie Torry Holt at receiver and Marshall Faulk coming over from Indy at running back. Trent Green was the high priced free agent QB that was supposed to lead this new high-octane offense. He had come over from Washington where he had 278 completions in 509 attempts for 3,441 yards, 23 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and an 81.8 QB rating. So, when Green suffered a knee injury on a hit by Rodney Harrison in the preseason people weren't too excited about a little know 28 year old quarterback from Northern Iowa that had completed exactly 4 NFL passes. 

Kurt Warner stepped in and had the season of NFL seasons. 325 completions in 499 attempts for 4,353 yards, 41 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, and a 109.2 QB rating. Warner led an offense that scored a NFL best 526 points. The Rams would post a 13-3 record and won the Super Bowl.

2001: Drew Bledsoe: Drew Bledsoe made it a little longer than Brady did in 2008. Bledsoe was injured in the second game on a hit by the Jet's Mo Lewis.  While it wasn’t season ending, it was a big blow to a team coming off a 5-11 season.  Bledsoe was the best player the Patriots had, or so they thought.  In came a little known second year quarterback out of the University of Michigan named Tom Brady. 

Bledsoe didn't have nearly the campaign in 2000 that Brady had in 2007. Bledsoe had been a good quarterback in the mid 90s, but his star had started to fade. The Patriots were 5-11 the year before and he had only 17 touchdowns to 13 interceptions and a 77.3 QB rating. However, he had led the Patriots to a Super Bowl appearance in 1996 and had been the face of that franchise up until that point. 

The rest as we say is history. The Patriots went 11-3 with Tom Brady as the starter and would capture their first Super Bowl title. Bledsoe would play for the Bills the next year and Brady would go on to win 2 more Super Bowls, appear in another, and become a Hall of Fame caliber quarterback. It is hard to believe that Matt Cassel could have similar results, but you never know.

The Patriots have a number of things working in their favor. They have Randy Moss. That can't be overstated. Ryan, Flacco, Russell, and Rodgers are starting for the first time this year. They don't have a weapon like that. It is a big advantage. Moss is a scary receiver that demands double teams down the field. While Moss probably isn't going to duplicate 23 touchdowns, he probably wasn't going to do that with Brady. He should still have a strong year. Welker is probably the one that is hurt more. He was often the 3rd or 4th read for Brady running free from the slot. Cassel isn't going to be able to make those quick reads. Welker will still get catches as a featured guy, but not like he did with Brady. Watson and Gafney give Cassel more NFL quality weapons.

The Patriots have a strong staple of running backs. Maroney, Morris, and Jordan all can carry the load this year. The offensive line is solid. While it got a little beat up by the NY Giants last year in the Super Bowl, it isn't like the Patriots have regressed into a 2004 version of the Houston Texans. They will be able to run and pass block. Matt Cassel does not have to win the games himself. He doesn't need to be Tom Brady. He needs to give them some good plays, but most importantly he needs to not make a lot of bad ones.

When an injury like this happens most teams eventually adjust.  The key is those first 5 or 6 ball games.  The Eagles and Jets started off 3-5 and 1-6 after their injuries.  They eventually salvaged their season, but not in time to make the playoffs.  The key for the Patriots is not to go into a 5 game nosedive before they pull out of this. 

I expect the offense to score anywhere between 350 and 390 points in 2008. That would put them between the 10-15th ranked offenses based on last years league wide scoring numbers.

The following teams made the playoffs last year scoring under 400 points. Pittsburgh (393), Seattle (393), New York Giants (373), Tampa Bay (334), Washington (334), and Tennessee (301). What those teams had in common was strong defenses that didn't yield a lot of points. The Steelers ranked 2nd in the NFL in scoring defense. The New York Giants led the NFL with 53 sacks. Seattle was 6th in scoring defense and allowed the fewest passing touchdowns. The Bucs had the 3rd ranked scoring defense, second ranked yardage defense, and the first ranked pass defense. The Titans had a great season when Albert Haynesworth was healthy. If you remove the 3 games he didn't play the Titans allowed an average of 15.3 points per game, which would have led the NFL.

The challenge for the Patriots will be to not allow a lot of points this season and force turnovers that give their offense a shorter field.   It was expected that this was going to be a rebuilding year for the defense and that the offense would have to carry the team.  There are going to be a lot of games where they score 14 to 21 points. They need to allow 10 points on those occasions. They need to get after the quarterback. They need to stop the run. They won't have the benefit of an offense that made other teams one-dimensional. They will have to stand on their own two feet and carry this team.

Bill Belichick is the perfect person to do this. His background is defense. He was the defensive coordinator for the NY Giants under Bill Parcells. He helped turn the Cleveland Browns into a nasty defense in 1994. He was the defensive coordinator for the Patriots in 1996 when they made it to the Super Bowl. He knows how to win with smash mouth football and defensive strength. He can coach that way this season.

The schedule also sets up well for them. They should be able to beat Miami (2), Oakland, St Louis, and San Fran. They can't lose to any of those teams if they want to be playing January football. If the Patriots win those easier games that gets them to 6 wins. They probably aren't going to beat the Chargers, Steelers, or Colts. That means to compete for the playoffs they will need to get 4 wins from the following teams: Buffalo (2), NY Jets (2), Denver, Arizona, and Seattle. That is by no means impossibility.

The Patriots have to make sure that the following three things don't happen. 1) No taking bad teams for granted. If they lose to St. Louis or San Fran they are going to have to make up for it with a win against a harder team. Losing Tom Brady got rid of their margin for error. The Hood is the best in the business at taking it one game at a time. The Patriots should be fine there. 2) Play well at home. If the Patriots go 4-4 or 5-3 at home this season they won't have much of a chance. They need to protect the home turf to take pressure off Cassel when he travels on the road. If they can go 7-1 or 8-0 at home that will help matters.  3) No big injuries to any other players. This is something they can't control. Sometimes it just isn't your year. I saw it firsthand with the Packers in 2005.  Sure they didn’t lose Favre, but that team was down to their 5th running back and 6th or 7th receiver.  The Patriots can't afford to have Moss miss 6 games, Welker miss 4 games, and Seymour miss 6 games. They lost one of their greatest weapons and they have to keep all the other solid veterans healthy. 

If they can do those things they should get to 9-7 or 10-6. That will put them in the hunt to either win what has been a weak division in years past or the wildcard. If they can do that anything is possible in a 60-minute single elimination playoff game.  The AFC is in a state of flux now.  Manning is coming back from knee surgery.  Jacksonville has huge offensive line and receiver injury problems.  The Chargers lost Lights Out for the year.  Big Ben is already having problems with his shoulder.  The Jets have a lot of chemistry issues to work out with so many players.  Their season is relying in large part on a 39 year old Iron Man.  The Patriots can overcome this injury. 

The loss of Tom Brady is a big one for the NFL. It's an even bigger one for the Patriots. Other than Moss there isn't another player on that roster that is even close to the level of importance to that offense as Tom Brady. You can't measure the things he does that don't show up in the box score. His leadership is a huge intangible Brady brings to that team.

However, after these initial days of analyzing and speculating the one thing we learn is the games go on. I'll have something interesting to write about next week. If the Patriots don't compete there are 31 other teams to talk about. The NFL isn't going to cancel it's season with Brady gone and the Patriots are going to have to play 15 more games. No one is going to take it easy on the Patriots because Brady isn't there. In fact teams are going to be looking to knock the Patriots out, especially after the way the Patriots embarrassed teams last year. It is revenge time for the 52-7 wins the Patriots had to start last season.  This may be the best shot to beat the Patriots and nobody is going to miss an opportunity like that if they can help it.

The Patriots have to remember that the Packers were willing to get rid of the 2nd MVP in the NFL to go with a kid that had 59 career passes. The Falcons and Ravens are both starting rookie quarterbacks. While it isn't ideal that Matt Cassel comes into this situation with so little on his plate other teams are going that route right now and are expecting to not only win games, but make the playoffs.

This has happened to teams in the past and some have come out okay. The Patriots can look to their own past for that. I think the Patriots will be fine. They should stay in the playoff hunt until the very end and if things go their way they could very easily make it. This injury while unfortunate is going to make the AFC as interesting as ever.  What are your thoughts on the Patriots injury?  1-15 this season, losing record, playoff contender, or Super Bowl Contender?  Let me know your thoughts.

Rodgers role with the Packer Offense

Now on to the topic I thought I was going to be focusing on.  People are jumping up and down about Aaron Rodger's game on Monday Night Football and rightfully so. He completed his last 10 passes of the game and was extremely efficient throughout. 18 for 22 for 178 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 picks, and a 115.5 QB rating is a very solid passing performance. He also rushed for 35 yards and added a rushing touchdown. They won the game 24-19 over a division rival in Minnesota who many people think could contend for the Super Bowl. Game 1 of the post Favre era could not have gone better. Rodgers deserves a great amount of credit for playing a terrific game under difficult circumstances.  He showed tremendous poise. 

Now that the soap opera has left the building the thing that interests me the most is what the Packers offense is going to evolve into now that the focal point of the offense for the past 16 years wears a Jets uniform. I'm trying not one to get caught up in the whole Rodgers vs. Favre. I understand that many people are going to focus on that and that there is going to be two evaluation processes. 1) How the Packers do this year vs. how the Jets do this year. In other words people are going to wonder if the Packers played for the future at the expense of the present. 2) How good of a career Rodgers has, which will take many years to evaluate.

There will be a time and a place to evaluate that and when there is I am sure I will write something about it when we get to that point. While people were getting caught up in the moment of whether the Packers made the right decision on a play-by-play basis I noticed a lot of interesting things.

Here is how Rodgers ranked among NFL quarterbacks this weekend.

1) His 18 completions ranked 14th in the NFL.

2) His 22 attempts were tied for 24th.

3) His yardage was tied for 20th.

Where he excelled was not in how many times he passed the ball, but his efficiency. His completion percentage was 2nd in the NFL. His QB rating was 8th. He didn't throw a pick.

That leads to an interesting question. Are the Packers going to give him more responsibility as he plays more games, becomes more comfortable with the offense, and earns more responsibility; or are the Packers going to become a run and defensive oriented football team in the post Favre era?

I looked at Favre's numbers over the last 2 years with McCarthy not in an attempt to compare Rodger's start and rank it among Favre's, but to look at the style of the Packers offense. Here is what I found.

1) Favre had more than 18 completions in 28 of his 32 games under McCarthy. Several of those games were games he got hurt in or rested. New England in 2006. Dallas in 2007. Detroit to end the season with everything clinched in 2007. In fact Favre had more than 25 completions 10 times in 32 games, significantly more than what Rodgers put up in game 1.

2) Favre had more than 22 attempts 29 out of 32 times. The only 3 times were the games I listed above.

3) Favre had more than 178 yards passing 27 out of 32 times under McCarthy. The three games I listed above, the 06 opener against the Bears when he had 170 yards, and the 06 home game against the Lions when he had 174 yards.

This isn't meant to slam Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers supporters could argue that Favre only had 14 games out of 32 where he didn't throw a pick. They could argue Favre had only 14 games where he eclipsed a 100.0 QB rating. I'm not trying to look at either of those points.

What I'm looking at is the direction of the Packer offense. For most of Favre's career the Packers were a pass first offense. That started to change with the emergence of Ahman Green in 2001, but the Packers evolved into pass first again once Green became injury prone starting in 2004 and especially 2005. By the beginning of 2007 the Packers were ignoring the run all together, mainly because they had no good running backs.

It started to move back toward a more run dominated offense at the end of last year. Part of that was the emergence of Ryan Grant. Part of that was the Favre injury in the Dallas game and Rodgers subsequent injury after that. The Packers had no options at QB and really didn't want to further risk any injuries that would cost them a playoff run.

It's impossible to figure out where the Packer's offense is headed based on one game or where it would have been headed had Favre stayed. But against a team that in 2007 was ranked 1st in rushing defense and 28th in passing defense the Packers only threw the ball 22 times and rushed the ball 27 times. I understand it was a little wet there, but the conditions weren’t that bad.  You would think they would have tried to pass more. The Packers play calling was extremely conservative.  They passed on a chance to close the half with a touchdown and settled for a field goal that was blocked. They didn't gain a first down in the 3rd quarter. They didn't let Rodgers put the ball up in the 4th to gain a clinching 1st down. Instead they ran, punted, and relied on the defense and on an offense making safe conservative yardage with no turnovers.

The Packers were able to do that, because the only time they trailed in the game was 3-0 in the first quarter.  Rodgers will be down by 10 points at some point this season and we will see how the Packers and Rogders handle that.  In this game the Packers capitalized on the big play. They got a 57 yard run by Grant, a 56 yard catch by Jennings, and a punt return by Blackmon to set up 21 of there 24 points.

People will point to how good Grant played. I thought Grant was average at best. Yes, the stats say 12 carries for 92 yards against a league leading rush defense. However, 57 yards were on one play. That means 11 carries for 35 yards the rest of the way and no ability to score goal line touchdowns. The Packers had to pass it in on 3rd and 1 and quarterback sneak it the other time. If they are going to win with Grant as the featured weapon he must get 5 or 6 yards more consistently and he needs to score goal line touchdowns. He was good at that last year and I expect him to do better in the weeks ahead than he did in the opener.

The Packers last year used the pass to beat the Vikings. In their two victories Favre was 65 for 91 for 695 yards with 5 touchdowns and 0 picks. The Packers did use the run against Minnesota, especially in the second game where Grant had 25 carries for 119 yards. But the Packers used the pass to win those games.

I see three themes emerging from this game:

1) I think the Packers realize the spotlight their young quarterback is under. They want to put him in position to make good plays and move the ball, but limit is opportunities to make bad plays and hurt the team. By not making him the focus of the offense they minimize the chance that Rodgers messes up. That is going to stop these "Why isn't Favre Here" stories.  They will be able to do that for quite a while as long as they play with the lead like they did on Monday Night.

2) They want Rodgers to be more comfortable as the starter before they unleash him. The more success he shows in this offense the more they will have faith in him to throw the ball around and gamble. I would expect the Packers to throw more as the season progresses.   They are going to have to at some point, because every team ends up behind in a game at some point where the quarterback has to throw the ball every play.  That is when we will see just how good Rodgers has become over the last 3 years.

3) The Packers wish to move in a different direction philosophically. I think McCarthy wanted to do this once he saw what he had in Grant, but Favre is not the right fit for that philosophy. By going with the younger more mobile quarterback they can throw the ball 20 times a game and not have to worry about whether the star gunslinger is going to like the reduced role. They want to play a similar style to what the Steelers played on Sunday where Big Ben threw the ball 14 times. I think that is the main reason the Packers didn't want Favre back. They figured less was more. Less yardage and less touchdown throws were acceptable with fewer interceptions and less points allowed. 

It's difficult to say whether this is a good idea or a bad idea. Since the 1970 merger no quarterback has led the NFL is passing yards and won a Super Bowl that same season. Brady in 2007 was the closest. The only quarterbacks to lead the NFL in touchdown passes and win the Super Bowl the same season are Stabler(76), Bradshaw(78), Young(94), Favre(96), Warner(99), and P Manning(06).

Still, the list of average Super Bowl winning quarterbacks is fairly short. While you don't need the premier quarterback on the premier offense in the NFL it is nice to have a Hall of Fame caliber player. You have to have a passing presence in your offense that allows you to make plays when you need them and keep the opposing team off balance. You don't need to have the most accomplished passer in the NFL. If the Super Bowl were about who had the best arm and the best skills Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, and Eli Manning would not have won a ring.

I think the league still thinks of the Packers as a pass first team. I was not impressed with Minnesota's game plan on Monday. They didn't blitz much. That is how you beat Favre. Rush four people, drop the rest into coverage, and force him to make quick decisions into coverage. Blitzing Favre can be a recipe for disaster.  Rodgers needs to be blitzed more until he proves he can pick those up and make quick reads. The Vikings didn't adjust to that. As teams realize the Packers are trying to become a run first team they will put more people in the box, blitz, and dare Rodgers to beat them. As they realize that his best downfield throws are on play action or rolling out of the pocket they will adjust with more blitzing from the outside.

It was a good start, but good starts don't really mean a whole lot. What is going to matter is if Rodgers can put the team on his back when the chips are down and pull out wins the Packers weren’t supposed to win.  What is going to matter is if he can guide this team to the playoffs. Anything less will be a disappointment to Packer fans. That is going to take more than one game to figure out. 

If the Jets make the playoffs and the Packers don't there will be uproar. If Favre plays at a MVP level and Rodgers is merely a game manager there will be a lot of head scratching.  As long as Rodgers is allowed to play with the lead like he did last night with the crowd on his side he will be fine. As he plays more games, plays on the road, defenses start making adjustments, and injuries start affecting key Packer personnel around him we will see if he can sustain his Week 1 performance. If he doesn't succeed it won't be because of his attitude. He seems to be saying and doing all the right things at this point.  Now it is on to Week 2.

What are your thoughts on the Packers?  I think its a little too early to predict if Rodgers can lead them to the playoffs, but do you think the Packers get back to a throw first philosophy spreading out their receivers like they did with Favre in 2007 or do you think it is going to be a much more conservative team the entire season that features Grant and the Packer Defense?  Let me know your thoughts.

I present to you my first regular season letter of the 2008 season.  I appreciate feedback of things that I failed to mention, but please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team.  I could do a newsletter for just one team.  Trying to mention every team or player in one newsletter would be impossibility.  I hereby present to you a recap of the opening weekend in the NFL. 

Standings

AFC East                                                                        NFC East

1. New York Jets (1-0)                                               1. New York Giants (1-0)

2. New England (1-0)                                                2. Philadelphia (1-0)

3. Buffalo (1-0)                                                            3. Dallas (1-0)

4. Miami (0-1)                                                              4. Washington (0-1)

 

 AFC South                                                                        NFC South

1. Tennessee (1-0)                                                          1. New Orleans (1-0)           

2. Indianapolis (0-1)                                                        2. Atlanta (1-0)

3. Houston (0-1)                                                               3. Carolina (1-0)

4. Jacksonville (0-1)                                                        4. Tampa Bay (0-1)

 

AFC North                                                                        NFC North

1.Baltimore (1-0)                                                            1.Green Bay (1-0)           

2.Pittsburgh (1-0)                                                           2.Chicago (1-0)

3.Cleveland (0-1)                                                           3.Detroit (0-1)

4.Cincinnati (0-1)                                                           4. Minnesota (0-1)

 

AFC West                                                                        NFC West

1. Denver (1-0)                                                            1. Arizona (1-0)           

2. San Diego (0-1)                                                      2. Seattle (0-1)

3. Kansas City (0-1)                                                   3. St Louis (0-1)

4. Oakland (0-1)                                                          4. San Francisco (0-1)

MVP of the Week: The MVP of the week goes to LT’s former backup, Michael Turner.  He set a Falcon’s franchise record with 220 rushing yards on 22 carries and scored 2 touchdowns. Donovan McNabb and Drew Brees led the quarterback charge with 361 yards and 343 yards.  Romo also had 320 yards passing.  All three were victorious.  Eddie Royal did a great job of filling in for Brandon Marshall.  He had 9 catches for 146 yards and 1 touchdown in Denver’s blowout win over the Raiders. 

Loser of the Week:  The St Louis Rams.  A defense in name only that gave up 38 points.  An offense that scored 3 points on a meaningless 4th quarter field goal.  Bulger had only 158 yards passing.  Jackson had only 40 yards rushing.  Holt had 1 catch for 9 yards.  That is unacceptable for three players with that much ability.  Also an equally disappointing mention to the Bungals.  Palmer went 10 for 25 for 99 yards and 0 touchdowns with 1 pick. T. J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Ocho Cinco combined for 4 catches and 66 yards.  Perry led the rushing attack with 37 yards rushing.  That is depressing for an offense of that caliber.   It was also depressing how bad that defense played against a rebuilding offense.  Both the Rams and Bengals must go back to the drawing board and do things much differently heading into Week 2.

Game of the Week: I would go with 2 games.  On Sunday the Bucs and Saints played a great game in New Orleans.  The teams would go back and forth before the Saints pulled it out in the 4th quarter.  Garcia gave the Bucs a 20-17 lead early in the 4th quarter, but Brees would hook up with Bush on a 42-yard touchdown pass to give the Saints the 24-20 win.  The Saints defense would hold on for the win.  The other good game was the Monday Night game between the Packers and Vikings.  Aaron Rodgers was very impressive in his debut.  Adrian Peterson had a solid effort.  The Packers had a 17-6 and a 24-12 lead in the game.  The Vikings pulled within 24-19 and got the ball back with no timeouts and 2 minutes left in the game.  Jackson would throw an interception to seal the deal in the final minute.  Lost in Rodgers vs. Favre was the fact that this was a pretty good game.

Bay of Pigs: I’d go with the Thursday night opener.  The NY Giants raced out to a 7-0 lead on their first drive of the game.  After that it was field goals and miscues that led to a 9-7 final the rest of the way.  The second half was scoreless.  The NY Giants put together four scoring drives, but consistently stumbled in the red zone.  The Redskins just stumbled all together. 

The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action):  I saw some of the worst two-minute strategy I think I have ever seen this week.  I have to start with the coach whose two- minute offense cost the Redskins a chance to comeback in that game.  Jim Zorn did an awful job of managing the two-minute offense at the end of the first half.  Moss bailed him out with the only touchdown for the Skins.  Then to close the game they didn’t call their timeouts properly and stayed in bounds too much.  They should have tried for a long field goal at the end of the game and onside kicked for a chance to throw the Hail Mary.  They went for it and gave themselves no chance to win as they were down two scores.  

The Jets have a Hall of Fame quarterback and on 3rd and 7 late in the 4th quarter and a chance to seal the game they handed the ball off to Jones and punted.  The Dolphins moved the ball down the redzone and got within an interception of completing a 13-point comeback.  Had the Dolphins scored that conservative decision would have been a major question mark.  

Finally, John Fox didn’t do a great job of managing the clock at the end of his game.  The Panthers had one timeout left and instead of using it to preserve precious seconds he allowed the clock to run until a play was snapped.  That left only 9 second left when they could have had about 20 seconds.  They managed to run a short slant and use the timeout with just 2 seconds left.  Then they got the winning touchdown.  Just because they won doesn’t mean it was good strategy.  NFL Coaches should know that in the last 30 seconds time is much more valuable than saving timeouts.  The goal is to get off as many good plays as possible.  I didn’t feel that John Fox didn’t that. 

Injury Report:  The obvious injury of the week was Tom Brady.  The 2007 MVP suffered a torn ACL and will miss the rest of the 2008 season.  It is the worst news the Patriots could have received. 

Vince Young was also injured on Sunday.  Young hurt his left knee.  He could miss 2-4 Weeks. 

Marion Barber suffered bruised ribs.  X-rays on the ribs came back negative and he is expected to play next week. 

Nate Burleson injured his left knee and is out for the season.  Maurice Morris also injured his left knee.  His status is uncertain, although it is expected he will miss at least the next 2 games.  The Seahawks are rapidly running out of skill players. 

Overall Impressions of Week 1:

1) The future of the Patriots – I think this game teaches us a lot of lessons.  I remember last year when the Patriots lost the Super Bowl and hours after the game were on the message boards telling the other 31 teams fans not to worry about the Patriots, because they would be back in the Super Bowl.  That seems hardly possible after the devastating season ending knee injury to Tom Brady. 

I’m not here to gloat.  I’m not a Patriot fan, but I don’t need to relish in their fan’s misery. I think this unfortunate injury serves as a reminder.  No matter how good our team looks or how good our favorite player is health is guaranteed to no one.

That is why I chuckle when people talk about Favre keeping the records warm for Brady or more likely Manning.  That severely diminishes the one thing Favre has done that no one else has been able to do that has allowed him to set those records.  Play 254 consecutive games. 

This does not mean that Favre is tougher than Brady.  Favre couldn’t play through a season ending knee injury either.  Favre has been tough to play threw a lot of things, but he also has been lucky that something like this has not happened to him.  Brady did nothing wrong as he was throwing from the pocket and the defender did nothing wrong as he was trying to make a clean play.  That injury could happen to anyone.

Knee injuries are devastating to quarterbacks.  They usually take a full year to recover from and a year of playing again to get used to playing after the injury.  Not only does this affect their 2008 season, but also their 2009 season.  There is no way to know how the Patriots linebackers and secondary progress.  There is no way to know what Randy Moss looks like in 2 years.  This injury puts a serious dark cloud over the future of the Patriot’s dynasty.

I am sad, because one of the things I was looking forward to seeing this year was Favre vs. Brady twice.  I was looking forward to Manning vs. Brady.  Brady is such a special player.  He is one of the most popular players in professional sports.  He makes exciting plays.  He makes the NFL a better league.  To lose a player of th