This is my fifth of eight NFL division previews. While there is still over a month until training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.
The AFC North is a division that has some of the best rivalries in the NFL. These teams and their fans really do not like each other. The Bengals appeared to be poised to dominate the division after an 11-5 record with a young offensive core in 2005. The Steelers beat them in the Wildcard Round, won the Super Bowl, and appeared to be in complete control of the division. The Bengals have been irrelevant since. The Steelers didn’t even make the playoffs after their Super Bowl win and the 13-3 Baltimore Ravens remerged in 2006. Then the Ravens crashed to 5-11 as the Steelers took back the division. Forgotten, have been the Cleveland Browns, who came out of nowhere to win 10 games in 2007. They were one of the biggest surprises in 2007. As big free agency spenders they look to take the division for the first time since 1989.
The AFC North has been a wide-open race the last few years. Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC North.
1) Pittsburgh Steelers
07 Record: 10-6
Points Scored: 393(9th)
Points Allowed: 269 (2nd)
Playoff Result: Lost in Wildcard Round
2008 Strength of Schedule: 153-103 (.598) (1st in NFL)
Strengths: The Steelers were a great statistical team in 2007. They finished 2nd in points allowed, in large part due to the 27 points they gave up to Baltimore resting starters the last game of the season. Indy led the league with 262 points allowed. The Steelers did finish 1st in yards allowed. They were 3rd in rushing yards allowed and passing yards allowed. Mike Tomlin did a great job with this team in his first season as a NFL Head Coach.
On offense they also did well. Big Ben had only 3,154 yards passing, but recorded 32 touchdown passes. The reason for that is the Steelers threw a lot in the redzone. While the Steelers 2,168 rushing yards was 3rd in the NFL, their 9 rushing touchdowns were 22nd. With Willie Parker coming back from injury, the Steelers got a gift by having Rashard Mendenhall fall to the 23rd pick. The Steelers figure to have a formidable running attack for years to come. They should get more rushing touchdowns in 2008, so long as they can replace Alan Faneca. He is a 7-time Pro Bowler and 5-time first-team All Pro, 4 of which were between 2004 to last season. That is difficult to replace and even though the Jets overpaid for the 30 plus year old guard, the Steelers have some large shoes to fill.
They also got some receiver help. They weren’t bad there to begin with. Hines Ward is starting to drop in productivity, but is still a great blocker and team leader. He is consistently around the 1,000-yard mark with 7-10 touchdowns. Santonio Holmes is entering the magical 3rd year for wide receivers and looks to be on the verge of a breakout year. I expect him to solidify himself as the number one option. Limas Sweed is the tall receiver Big Ben wanted and should fit in well. He is a good endzone and 3rd down target. Heath Miller is a fantastic tight end.
The Steelers figure to be in the top 10 of the league in scoring in 2008 again. With the defense they have, that should mean another divisional title.
Weaknesses: Here is the million-dollar question. How does a team that finishes 1st in yards allowed, 2nd in points allowed, 9th in points scored, and throws the 6th fewest interceptions finish 10-6 and lose in the first round of the playoffs?
The problems were two-fold. The Steelers were a terrible road team. They were 7-2 at home, with their sole losses coming to Jacksonville in the regular season and playoffs. Losing to the same team twice at home was a Steeler first.
3-5 on the road is just not good enough. Furthermore those road wins were against Cleveland, Cincy, and St Louis. This team has to show better on the road against the good teams in the NFL.
The second problem was the team finished bad. After starting the season 9-3, they finished 1-4, including the playoff loss. I will give the Steelers a bit of a pass on the playoff loss, as not having Willie Parker was huge. The Steelers need play action to succeed in the passing game and that injury limited them. They also lost Aaron Smith, which hurt their run defense at the end of the season. Troy Polamalu, one of the best safeties in all of football played only 11 games last year. He missed 4 of the last 6 games in the regular season. They had some key players that were not right and were essential parts to their team.
Still injuries were not the only reason they fell short. What they need to do is get more sacks and more turnovers. The Steelers had only 11 interceptions, which was tied for last in the NFL. They are traditionally too good at pressuring the quarterback to finish that low.
Sacks were also part of their problem last year. Their 36 sacks ranked 13th in the NFL, but there wasn’t much separation between them and a team like Miami, which ranked 24th with 30.0. They need to get into the high 40s or low 50s in sacks to join the likes of the Giants (53) and Patriots (47). Increases in sacks and interceptions will help this team win more games on the road.
On offense, they need to give up fewer sacks. The Steelers tied for 7th most sacks allowed in the NFL with sacks allowed at 47. To put that in perspective the Colts and Patriots allowed a combined 44 sacks. Part of that is the offensive line. They need to pass block as well as they run block. Part of that is Big Ben. He has to get rid of the ball better and have better pocket presence.
The Steelers have to win with him being a bigger part of the offense. He has led a team to a Super Bowl, is just entering his prime, and that seems strange to say about a guy that threw 32 touchdown passes last year and made the Pro Bowl, but here is my point on that.
Big Ben threw almost 60% of his 32 touchdowns in 5 games. He totaled 19 touchdowns in wins at Cleveland, at Denver, Baltimore, Jacksonville, and at St Louis. The Steelers were just 3-2 in those games. That means in the other 11 games he had just 13 touchdown passes and the Steelers went 7-4 in those games.
In their 3 biggest blowouts he had 11 touchdown throws (at Cleveland, Baltimore, and at St Louis), but he attempted 23, 16, and 20 passes. His best games are when he throws the ball the least. The more he throws the ball, the worse the Steelers are. That is true of a lot of teams, but 30 passes is not that many passes in the NFL. It would be different if we were talking about when he throws 50 passes.
If the Steelers are going to improve on their 2007 campaign that have to be able to rely less on play action and rolling him out of the pocket. While that is a great dimension to have it should be icing on the cake, not be the focal point of the passing offense. He really needs to become better in the pocket if he is going to join the elite signal callers in the NFL.
Prediction: I really liked the Steelers draft and think they have an excellent chance to compete in the AFC. Their struggle is in the schedule, the most difficult in the NFL. They have a brutal stretch where they play Week 8) NY Giants, 9) at Washington, 10) Indy, 11) San Diego, 12) Cincy, 13) New England, 14) Dallas.
That is six 2007 playoff teams in seven weeks, which includes the two Super Bowl representatives and 3 of the 4 teams that earned first round byes. I was tempted to pick Cleveland, because they have Denver and Buffalo instead of San Diego and New England, but I resisted that temptation.
The Steelers have owned this division for a long time. They have a great defense, much better than Cleveland. The Steelers are 44-20 since 2004, which is the first year Big Ben joined the team. Other than the Super Bowl hangover season, which included a coach on the way out and Big Ben’s big motorcycle incident the Steelers have been the class of this division and won 10 games or more every other year.
Cleveland is probably going to make the playoffs this year, but they have to prove to me they can beat the Steelers before I pick them to overtake the Steelers. The Steelers don’t have a glaring weakness like the Browns pass defense. That said, Pittsburgh has an impossible schedule and will have to play better than they did last year if they want to repeat as division champs. I think they will do that.
Pittsburgh Steelers’ Record: 11-5 – AFC North Divisional Champion; AFC #4 Seed
2) Cleveland Browns
07 Record: 10-6
Points Scored: 402 (8th)
Points Allowed: 382 (21st)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 140-116 (.547) (7th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Browns had an offensive juggernaut in 2007. That said, it was anything but expected. They looked like the worst team in the league in their 34-7 opening day loss to the Steelers. They did nothing well and Crennel shipped his starter, Frye, out after the Week 1 debacle.
That was a puzzling move, but Anderson responded with 328 yards and 5 touchdowns against the Bengals the very next week. He finished with 3,787 yards and 29 touchdown passes. He appears safe as the starter, but has an anxious Brady Quinn waiting in the wings. If Anderson struggles early, the calls for Quinn will come quick and loud.
The Browns have great talent at the skill positions. Braylon Edwards finally settled into the role of star receiver with 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns. He had that magical 3rd year breakout season. Kellen Winslow, Jr also had 1,106 yards and 5 touchdowns. Both are young and coming into their own. They added Stallworth to the mix, which should really help the offense. He gives them a speed threat opposite of Edwards and should open up the middle of the field for Winslow, Jr. That puts Joe Jurevicius at his best position, which is a 3rd receiver.
Jamal Lewis rediscovered his legs and had 1,304 yards and 9 touchdowns. Keep in mind that 4 of those 9 touchdowns came against Seattle and 308 yards came in 2 games against Cincinnati. He needs to spread his production more evenly across the schedule. Jason Wright and Jerome Harrison played well in stretches last year and could contribute in a larger role this season.
Josh Cribbs is an excellent return threat and if it weren’t for Hester would be looking to claim the title as best return man in the NFL. The Browns finished 8th in points scored in 2007. With another year together they should be poised to do even more in 2008.
Weaknesses: The Browns had two weaknesses. First, and foremost was the defense. 21st in points allowed. 30th in yards allowed, 31st in 1st downs allowed, 24th in passing yards allowed, and 27th in rushing yards allowed. This was one of the worst units in the league and prevented them from doing bigger things in 2007.
Enter a free agent spending spree. They signed Shaun Rodgers and traded a 2nd round pick for Corey Williams. Davis, Jackson, McGinest, and Wimbley are solid linebackers. The front 7 should be improved with the addition of those two linemen. I expect them to stop the run better and put more pressure on the quarterback.
The problem is they didn’t address the secondary. Sean Jones is a good safety and had 5 picks last year. They lost Bodden in the Rogers trade and Holly was lost for the season in May with an injury. Terry Cousin is going to be called on to play big minutes and the Browns may have to go corner hunting on the waiver wire. They lack a shutdown corner. They didn’t have any draft picks to address the need with those picks belonging to Dallas (Quinn trade) and Green Bay (Williams trade).
That is not a good thing given the weapons the Steelers and Bengals have. They are going to need to score a lot of points, because their defense, while improved is still not among the strongest units in the NFL. The good thing is they are capable of doing that.
Prediction: I wanted to pick the Browns based on their slew of offensive weapons. I thought better of it and remembered that the defensive component does help. While the Steelers have a tougher schedule, they have the better team, which usually comes out on top. Also, keep in mind the Brown won 10 games with an easy schedule in 2007. This year figures to be more difficult this season.
Still, they are going to cause match up problems for teams with their speed at wide receiver and the points they can put up in bunches. They won with a bad defense last year and they should be even better on offense in 2008. There is no reason this team cannot win 10 games. If they can do that they should be back in the playoffs for the first time since 2002. It is much deserved for the Dawg Pound, which has been thirsting for a winner for a long time.
Cleveland Browns’ Record: 10-6 – AFC North 2nd Place; AFC #6 Seed
3) Cincinnati Bengals
07 Record: 7-9
Points Scored: 380 (11th)
Points Allowed: 385 (24th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 140-116 (.547) (7th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Bengals have a great passing attack. Palmer had his 2nd consecutive 4,000-yard season and had 26 touchdown passes. The only off part for him was his 20 interceptions. He is one of the best passers in the NFL, but has yet to be consistently surrounded with a good defense that can get the Bengals into the playoffs.
TJ Houshmandzadeh busted out for 112 catches and 12 touchdowns. Chad Johnson had 1,440 yards and 8 touchdowns. Those 2 players are as productive as any receiving duo in the NFL. They cause nightmares for defensive coordinators and are perfect compliments.
Kenny Watson and Rudi Johnson combined for 1,260 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. While the Bengals only ranked 24th in rushing yards those two gave them enough considering the potency of the passing attack. The problem is the Bengals were forced to throw out of necessity in a lot of games and not choice. Their defense gave up too many points for the backs to get enough carries.
Shayne Graham is one of the best kickers in the business. He is accurate, kicks for distance, and has been an elite level kicker for the last few seasons.
Weaknesses: This team’s main weakness was defense. Defensive guru Marvin Lewis has never been able to fix that since arriving in Cincy. In 2005 and 2006 they forced a high number of turnovers to offset their large number of points. Their high-flying offense could make up for that.
Last year the Bengals were 24th in points allowed, 27th in yards allowed, 21st in rushing yards allowed, and 26th in passing yards allowed. While they were still 6th in interceptions with 19, it wasn’t nearly enough to win games, given that they were turning the ball over a lot and not running the ball well.
They lost their best defensive lineman in Justin Smith. He signed with San Fran. They added Keith Rivers at linebacker in the draft. However, they had to add wide receivers in the 2nd and 3rd round in the event Ocho Cinco is a no show. That hurt them from upgrading the defense even more. It is still going to be exploited in 2008.
In past years Rudi Johnson was a threat. He was good for 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns. Last year he was hurt most of the year and the Bengals were too one dimensional on offense. That was a big reason for Palmer’s 20 interceptions. He threw 25 in 2005 and 2006 combined.
The biggest problem is this team’s attitude. This is the weakest team in terms of mental toughness in the NFL. That starts with the front office. They had a roster of players that should have starred in the Longest Yard. Chris Henry and Odell Thurman were released because of their constant brushes with the law. Both were talented players that did not live up to expectations off the field.
That did not discourage the Bengals from drafting Jason Shirley from Fresno State. Shirley's received a two-game suspension for conduct detrimental to the team in August. He was suspended for a 2nd time in October on su####ion of driving under the influence and hit-and-run. Shirley was reinstated on November 15, but two days later, he was dismissed from the school after he was cited for su####ion of driving with a suspended license and expired registration.
Most teams would have moved on to the next player on their Big Board. The Bengals were perfectly comfortable drafting someone with that record. As long as they continue to draft players of that character, they will continue to have these problems. Adding a 5th round problem child doesn’t ruin a team. But the fact that they even drafted him given the problems they have had shows the mentality of that front office. Character is not a priority in Cincy. Management is as much responsible for the problems they have had in recent years as the players who have not been able to stay out of trouble. You can’t keep ignoring character and not expect to have these problems.
Then there is Chad Johnson. I can understand his frustration and the Bengals should have traded him. However, his attempt to acquire a trade this offseason has been nothing short of a circus. He was quoted as saying this in a June 3rd, 2008 article by Dave Fleming for ESPN Magazine, "It's the reinvention of Ocho Cinco," he says. "I'm dead serious. People need to take me as I am because I just don't give a [expletive] anymore. That's how I'd sum up my attitude for the next season."
That’s fantastic coming from one of your offensive leaders and best players. He has transformed himself from a funny and enjoyable player to a TO type player in just a couple seasons. I like Chad Johnson, but he needs to get back to the old Chad Johnson before I am going to resume enjoying him. Also, TJ Houshmandzadeh is missing mini camps looking for a new contract.
There are enough good players here, but no one appears to be on the same page. Winning is secondary at this point in Cincinnati for both the players and front office.
Prediction: The schedule is too tough for the Bengals to be playing against themselves. Pittsburgh is still good and Cleveland is fast improving. The AFC South and NFC East had 6 playoff teams in 2006. There just aren’t a lot of winnable games.
The sad thing is that quarterback is one of the hardest positions to fill and the Bengals have a great talent there. They are wasting away the prime years of Carson Palmer’s career by not adding a defense and having their skill players bicker. I feel bad for him, because I think he is a good character guy. He deserves better. It is a shame he has to play in such chaos.
The Bengals will outscore some people and win games with their offense. However, turnovers, lack of a running game, lack of defense, lack of mental toughness, and lack of teamwork will be too much to overcome against a tough schedule. If they are not careful, they could fight there way to the bottom and finish in last place in the AFC North.
Cincinnati Bengals’ Record: 5-11 – AFC North 3rd Place; No Playoffs
4) Baltimore Ravens
07 Record: 5-11
Points Scored: 334 (18th)
Points Allowed: 310 (11th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 141-115 (.551) (4th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: It is really hard to say anything good about the Baltimore Ravens 2007 season. They were coming off a 13-3 season and had acquired Willis McGahee. They were expected by many to compete with the top AFC teams for a possible Super Bowl birth. The Ravens started 4-2, before losing 9 straight games, bottoming out by losing to the winless Dolphins in Week 15. They beat the Steelers on the last day of the season to salvage a 5-11 campaign. The result was the end of the Brian Billick era and the hiring of John Harbaugh.
The strength of the Ravens starts with their defense. It has been that way since Ray Lewis arrived in 1996. Since 1999 the Ravens have finished in the top 10 in scoring defense 6 times and in the top 10 in yards allowed every year other than 2002. The Ravens were impossible to run the ball against last year. They were 2nd in rushing yards allowed, 1st in yards per rushing attempt, and 7th in rushing touchdowns allowed.
The Ravens still have a great front 7. Ngata was a great pick at defensive tackle in the 2006 draft. Terrell Suggs is still a great pass rusher and will be 26 in October. He had a down year with 5.0 sacks after consistently being in the 8-12 range. He must rebound. The million-dollar question is how much does Ray Lewis have left in the tank. The 9-time Pro Bowler and eventual first ballot Hall of Famer turns 33 years old this season. He hasn’t had 100 solo tackles since 2004, something he did 6 of the 8 seasons prior to 2004. He must stay healthy for the Ravens to have their defense at its best.
The secondary is great when healthy. Ed Reed is still the best safety in the business. McAllister and Rolle are both over 30 years old and were injured last season. That was a main reason why the Ravens finished 20th in passing yards allowed and 26th in passing touchdowns allowed. Fabian Washington and Frank Walker were brought in to address secondary depth. They should stop the pass better in 2008.
On offense, the Ravens were able to run the ball behind Pro Bowler Willis McGahee. He had 1207 yards and 7 touchdowns. That was a great season given the cast around him. Ray Rice was a nice addition to back him up in the 2nd round.
Other than McGahee, the Ravens had little to nothing on offense. They have a very anemic passing offense, evidenced by the 23rd ranking in passing yards and 28th ranking in passing touchdowns. The Ravens highest single game point total was 30 points in 2008 and they scored under 20 points 8 times. Matt Stover is a great kicker, but was all too many times the Ravens best offensive weapon.
Weaknesses: Here is how bad the Ravens quarterback situation has been in the Ray Lewis era. Last year, Kyle Boller became the all-time Raven passing yardage leader with 7,846 yards, surpassing Vinny Testeverde, who threw for 7,148 yards in 29 games in 1996 and 1997. It took Boller 53 games and 42 starts to accumulate his passing yards. It took the Ravens 10 seasons to find a quarterback with enough staying power to surpass 7,148 yards.
The Ravens have never been able to throw the ball. In 2008 they have 3 choices. Kyle Boller, who is the franchise’s all time passing yards leader and a certifiable bust. Joe Flacco is another choice. He is a rookie who played his college ball at the University of Delaware. The third option is Troy Smith, who is in his second year. He is a great leader and intangible guy who must prove to the Ravens he possesses NFL skills. It is not exactly an all-star group.
Todd Heap is a good tight end that was injured last year. He should rebound to give the Ravens a solid target in the middle of the field. Derrick Mason was solid as usual with 103 catches for 1087 yards and 5 receiving touchdowns. The only question with him is age, as he is 34 years old. Mark Clayton looked to be poised for a breakout year in 2007. He regressed to 48 catches, 531 yards, and 0 touchdowns.
The offensive line is going to be in a state of flux if Jonathan Ogden follows through on his retirement talk. He has reportedly told the Ravens not to expect him back. He is an 11-time Pro Bowler, 9-time All-Pro, and eventual first ballot Hall of Famer. It is hard to replace guys like him. Losing him is going to hurt this offense in terms of run production and protecting a young quarterback.
The Ravens didn’t have a lot of salary cap room to improve. They are going to have to improve from within to improve on their poor offensive showing from 2007.
Prediction: This is not the worst team in the league in terms of talent. It is a very solid defense with a below average offense. That should still win some games. However, it is has a horrible schedule. They play the following scoring defenses in 08: Colts (1), Steelers twice (2), Titans (8th), Eagles (9th), Jaguars (10th) Redskins (11th), Cowboys (13th). That doesn’t include the defending champion NY Giants, Cleveland who is vastly improved, and Cincinnati, who went 2-0 against the Ravens in 2007.
I think that while there are some nice young players on defense, but a few of the core players are starting to get up there in age. Ray Lewis has to play lights out if this defense is going play at a high enough level for the team to compete. They are going to be playing either a bad quarterback or an inexperienced quarterback, neither of which is a good thing. They have some nice pieces on offense, but nothing that will keep defensive coordinators up at night. McGahee can’t run effectively against 8 people in the box, and Heap needs receivers to stretch the field and give him room in the middle. Mason is a solid threat, but doesn’t stretch the field. Ogden retiring would be a terrible blow to the offensive line.
The schedule is impossible and I look for 4 wins out of the Ravens. They will play teams tough and keep the score down, but I think the offense is just too weak. The good news is they had a good draft in 08 and if Flacco or Smith is the real deal at QB they could put easily together a playoff contender in 2009 with another good draft, some free agent signings, and an easier schedule.
Baltimore Ravens’ Record: 4-12 – AFC North 4th Place; No Playoffs
That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008. I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July. I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008. Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews. You have made writing these a lot of fun.
As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.
1) W/L Record: 16-0 2) Points Scored: 36.8 / game (1st) 3) Points Allowed: 17.1 / game (4th) 4) Yards Gained: 411.2 / game (1st) 5) Yards Allowed: 288.3 / game (4th)
Strengths: I could write a page worth of strengths for this team. 1) They have the best Head Coach in the NFL, 2) They have the best QB in the NFL, 3) They have the best WR in the NFL, and 4) They are exceptionally gifted in the other areas of football. This team is in the top 5 in the 4 major statistical areas and winning games by 19.7 / points per game. It’s hard to find a weakness for the first undefeated regular season since the 1972 Dolphins.
Weaknesses: There are many places to look at with an undefeated team. Of the 4 teams (Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, NY Giants, Philadelphia Eagles) that gave the Patriots a close game all four of them are in the top 10 in yards / game allowed and all have 1,000 yard running backs. If you can contain the Patriots offensive attack where you are in a position to call conservative plays you can stay with this team. While the defense is solid they are not as good as 2003 or 2004. The key is not making mistakes. It is almost impossible to beat them playing perfect. Also, while they have a good rushing attack, they are not a dominant rushing team. How will this team respond in bad Boston weather against a good team if the winter elements come into play?
Why this team will win the Super Bowl: They have completed arguably the best regular season in NFL history. Why would you pick against them? Why this team will not make the Super Bowl: Since 1990 only the (90, 91, & 93) Buffalo Bills, 98 Denver Broncos, 02 Oakland Raiders, and 03 New England Patriots have made the Super Bowl out of the AFC as a #1 seed. Only the 98 Broncos and the 03 Patriots won the Super Bowl. Traditionally the best regular season team does not represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Furthermore there is the Indianapolis Colts. They are the only other team in the NFL that is also in the top five in all four categories. They won the Super Bowl last year. The Patriots could end up being the victim of being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Both the Colts and Patriots are worthy Super Bowl Champions. Only one can hoist the trophy. What would be considered a successful Postseason: With a 16-0 regular season it’s either a Super Bowl win or bust.
Percent Chance of playing football on 02/03/2007: 50% -------------------------------------------------- --------------------------
Team: Indianapolis Colts
Seed: AFC #2 Seed
Quick Stats:
1) W/L Record: 13-3 2) Points Scored: 28.1 / game (3rd) 3) Points Allowed: 16.4 / game (1st) 4) Yards Gained: 358.7 / game (5th) 5) Yards Allowed: 279.7 / game (3rd)
Strengths: This team is very similar to the New England Patriots in that there are very few glaring weaknesses. 1) First Ballot Hall of Fame quarterback, 2) A Pro Bowl running back, 3) The second or third best Head Coach in the NFL (Mike Shanahan has more rings), 4) Arguably the best defense in the NFL.
Weaknesses: The Colts are a middle of the pack run defense. Because they are built for speed rather that physicality they are susceptible to stopping the running game between the tackles. They are also toward the bottom of the NFL in yards per attempt allowed in the running game. Similar to the Patriots if you can keep the score close or play with a lead the opportunity to control the clock with a conservative game plan is there.
Why this team will win the Super Bowl: This team won the Super Bowl last year and has a much improved defense this season. Why couldn’t they go back? Why this team will not make the Super Bowl: Same as above. There is only one spot for the Patriots and the Colts. They both can’t go this season. At least one of them will be sitting home in January. What would be considered a successful Postseason: Same as the Patriots. The Colts won the Super Bowl last year and have a much better defense this year. It’s the Super Bowl or bust. Percent Chance of playing football on 02/03/2007: 30% -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------- Team: San Diego Chargers
Seed: AFC #3 Seed
Quick Stats:
1) W/L Record: 11-5 2) Points Scored: 25.8 / game (5th) 3) Points Allowed: 17.8 / game (5th) 4) Yards Gained: 315.2 / game (20th) 5) Yards Allowed: 320.2 / game (14th)
Strengths: This team has the best running back in football. LT is simply amazing. 1500 yards rushing, 500 yards receiving, and 15-20 touchdowns are the norm for this future First Ballot Hall of Famer. The defense isn’t bad either ranking in the top 10 in points allowed. This is a defense that relies on the big play. They are 1st in interceptions, 3rd in fumbles recovered, and 5th in the NFL in sacks. The one thing that teams have been able to do is run the football against the Colts and Patriots if the score permits it. This team would seem to have the best personal in place to give the frontrunners fits in that department.
Weaknesses: This team just wasn’t very good against teams with winning records. The Chargers were 2-4 against the six toughest teams on their schedule: (New England, Indianapolis, Green Bay, Jacksonville, Minnesota, and Tennessee). These are the six teams that either made the playoffs or were in contention until the final week. The reason for this is that the Chargers are a high risk / high reward defense. They rely on forcing turnovers and sacks. While that is fine and good against Oakland and Kansas City, it is much harder against Hall of Fame QBs like Brady and Favre. The Chargers were outscored 118-166 in those 6 games. The Chargers beat the Colts, but Manning threw 6 interceptions in their loss and the Colts missed an extra point length field goal that would have won the game. Are we to expect 6 interceptions in a potential second round rematch? The Titans gave up 14 points in the final 7 minutes of regulation to allow the game to get to OT where the Titans lost the game. Furthermore, the Chargers have lost their opening home playoff game in 2004 and 2006. The main question the Chargers face entering the playoffs is whether their record is the result of a weak AFC West and second half schedule or whether this team is finally ready to take the next step. Why this team will win the Super Bowl: LT. LT is good enough to put the Chargers on his back and carry them to the Promised Land. Furthermore, the Chargers have the offensive and defensive balance necessary to win playoff games. Why this team will not make the Super Bowl: Norv Turner and the passing game. While Marty was let go because he couldn’t win the big game, Turner hasn’t won enough regular season games to take a run at that title. Until Turner proves he can win big games that will be the Giant Elephant in the room. The other concern is the same as last year. Can the Chargers win with this passing game? It ranks 26th this season. It couldn’t overcome that problem last year and was ranked 16th. In addition to the yardage drop Rivers is throwing more picks. Rivers will have to win a game for the Chargers at some point this postseason. The Chargers will go as far as he can take them. He hasn’t proven to date that he is capable of taking them anywhere near the Super Bowl.
What would be considered a successful Postseason: While this team has not played in an AFC Championship Game in recent years they were 14-2 last year. This team had Super Bowl hopes at the beginning of the year. A one and done is unacceptable. They really need to win a game if not two to be happy with their progress from last season.
Percent Chance of playing football on 02/03/2007: 5% -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
Seed: AFC #4 Seed
Quick Stats:
1) W/L Record: 10-6 2) Points Scored: 24.6 / game (9th tie) 3) Points Allowed: 16.8 / game (2nd) 4) Yards Gained: 327.4 / game (17th) 5) Yards Allowed: 266.4 / game (1st)
Strengths: This team ranks in the top 5 in both yards allowed and points allowed. They aren’t called Blitzburgh for nothing. The Steelers pressure the quarterback as well as any team in the NFL. They also have a fantastic running attack that ranks in the top 5 in the NFL. Furthermore, Big Ben eclipsed the 30-touchdown pass mark this season. That has been due to his vast improvement over last season and the respect people have for the running game, which makes the play action passing deadly. The Steelers have as explosive an offense as they have ever had. Maintaining balance in the rushing and passing game will be huge.
Weaknesses: The Steelers used to be a great road team. They won the Super Bowl as a 6 seed in 2005. However, they just haven’t been a very good road team this season. They are 3-5 on the road in 2007 and 1-4 on the road outside of their division games. They lost to the lowly Jets. Their only road win outside of the division was at St Louis. That game was competitive well into the 4th quarter. The question every Steelers fan has to be asking him or her self is whether the Steelers can travel to both Indy and New England and win a road playoff game. Also the Jags, Rams, and Ravens have had a lot of success running the ball on the Steelers at the close of the season. Since losing Aaron Smith this run defense has tanked. The other area of concern is whether the Steelers will be able to use that play action passing attack to its full capability without the services of Willie Parker. The Steelers just aren’t healthy entering the playoffs. That is a recipe for disaster. Why this team will win the Super Bowl: Statistically, this team is sound in the passing and running game on both offense and defense. They have great balance. Furthermore, they are the only AFC team outside of the Colts and Patriots that have a Super Bowl winning QB. That experience could be huge in the playoffs.
Why this team will not make the Super Bowl: They have the toughest draw outside of Jacksonville. They will probably have to beat Jacksonville, New England, and Indy in succession to make the Super Bowl. Once there Dallas or Green Bay probably waits for them. Furthermore, two of those games will be on the road, a place the Steelers have not fared well this season. The Super Bowl is still a neutral site. The Steelers are dinged up and haven’t been playing their best ball in the second half of the season. While losing to Baltimore with starters out isn’t troubling not playing a great game since Week 9 is troubling.
What would be considered a successful Postseason: When you win the Super Bowl in 2005 people expect you to still compete for that honor in 2007. Given their injury situation and inability to win on the road I think a first round playoff victory and a competitive second round game would make for a successful postseason campaign.
Percent Chance of playing football on 02/03/2007: 4% -------------------------------------------------- -----------------------
Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Seed: AFC #5 Seed
Quick Stats:
1) W/L Record: 11-5 2) Points Scored: 25.7 / game (6th) 3) Points Allowed: 19.0 / game (10th) 4) Yards Gained: 357.4 (7th) 5) Yards Allowed: 313.8 / game (12th) Strengths: Run Defense and Run Offense. The Jaguars are the second best rushing offense in the NFL and have a top 10 run defense unit. That was also the case last season. The difference between 06 and 07 has been the passing game. Garrard has only 3 interceptions this season. He also has 18 touchdown passes. Gray chipped in with 10 touchdown passes. The days of the Jags being inept in the passing offense is over. This team can beat people both on the ground and through the air. Weaknesses: The wide receiver spot. The Jaguars leading receiver has less than 650 receiving yards. The only teams since 1990 to win the Super Bowl without a 1,000 yard receiver are the 1990 Giants, 1996 Packers, 2000 Ravens, 2003 & 2004 Patriots. The Jags don’t have Brett Favre or Tom Brady in his prime so cross those teams off the list. The 2000 Ravens were 1st in points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed led by Ray Lewis. The 1990 NY Giants were also 1st in points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed led by the original LT. While the Jags have a great defense, they aren’t at that level. It remains to be seen if the Jags can win with so few playmakers at the wide receiver and tight end position.
Why this team will win the Super Bowl: Any team that can run the football, stop the run, and take care of the football has a chance to do big things in the postseason. They play in the toughest division in the NFL and have played a lot of tough teams. They have won at Tennessee, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay. All three are playoff teams. They also won at Arrowhead and the Mile High City. Those places are traditionally among the toughest venues in the NFL. This team has the make up and the personality to win tough road playoff games.
Why this team will not make the Super Bowl: They will have probably have to win at Pittsburgh, New England, and Indy who were a combined 22-2 at home this season. Also, while they are a good story, they went 0-2 against Indy. They were beaten badly at New Orleans. While the Jags rank 4th in interceptions they also rank 15th in pass yards allowed. If you can keep the front 7 out of the pocket and avoid the big mistakes there are plays to be made. That’s why the Jags struggle against Indy. When the Jags play against an explosive passing offense that can protect the QB they struggle to score enough points to win those types of games. They just aren’t built to win shootouts or come from behind, which is hard when Indy and New England wait later in the playoffs.
What would be considered a successful Postseason: This team definitely has to feel it must win the first game. However, when you consider that Garrard will be making his first playoff start compared to the 4 rings of Brady and Manning you have to wonder how realistic it is to expect the Super Bowl. The goal will be to play better than the 28-3 domination they experienced in New England a couple years ago. If they can win a first round game and play well in the second round, that will be a successful 2007 run for the Jags.
Percent Chance of playing football on 02/03/2007: 10% -------------------------------------------------- --------------------------
Team: Tennessee Titans
Seed: AFC #6 Seed
Quick Stats:
1) W/L Record: 10-6 2) Points Scored: 18.8 / game (22nd) 3) Points Allowed: 18.6 / game (8th) 4) Yards Gained: 311.7 / game (21st) 5) Yards Allowed: 291.6 / game (5th)
Strengths: This is a very good defensive unit. They are extremely difficult to run against in between the tackles, they tackle very well, and they put pressure on the quarterback. Their defense would rank a lot higher if Haynesworth were not injured for 3 games when the Titans looked horribly average on defense. Also even though they don’t have an LT or LJ type running back they do rank 5th in the NFL in rushing offense. When you combine a strong defense, good running game, and excellent head coach you have an opportunity to win close games. The Titans are 6-3 in games decided by 7 points or less.
Weaknesses: This team is too one-dimensional. While they are a top 10 defense they are a bottom 10 offense. The offense ranks 27th in passing yards. Vince Young has a very pedestrian 71.1 QB rating. He has only 4 games where he had more touchdowns than interceptions. He has 11 games where he threw for less than 200 yards. While he is a great leader and has a lot of intangibles there just isn’t enough production in the passing department to suggest the Titans will be able to make a serious challenge for the Lombardi Trophy. Why this team will win the Super Bowl: Vince Young is a player that defies the statistics. Even though the stats show he should be a 4 or 5 win QB he manages to win 10 games. The Titans stop the run, run the ball, and play good defense. When you watch his Rose Bowl Performance it is hard to bet against him in a big spot. Also they beat the Jags and split against the Colts. When the Colts played all their players they lost by 2 points. They can keep games close until the 4th quarter and the 4th quarter is when Vince Young comes alive. Even if he is too injured to play Kerry Collins has played in a Super Bowl and can make enough plays to keep the Titans afloat. Why this team will not make the Super Bowl: Even though the Titans are 5-3 on the road it is hard to imagine this team going into Indy or New England and scoring enough points to win those games.
What would be considered a successful Postseason: The Titans have to be thrilled to have Vince Young in the playoffs. This experience will benefit him in the future. If the Titans can play well against the Chargers it will be a positive step forward. A win and everything else is icing on the cake.
Percent Chance of playing football on 02/03/2007: 1% -------------------------------------------------- ----------------------
Let me know your thoughts on the AFC Playoff Picture. Check out my NFC Playoff Predictions for the NFC Playoff Pictture and my Super Bowl Prediction.
After taking a couple weeks off for my vacation, I am back from my trip and ready to finish my division predictions. This division along with the NFC West is probably the most wide-open division in the NFL. The Steelers are a year removed from the Super Bowl title. The Bengals are a year removed from the division title. The Ravens are coming off a 13-3 season. The Browns had one of the busiest drafts in the NFL. There should be a lot of debate from some very passionate fans about how this division will turn out. Here is how I see the AFC North playing out this season.
Cincinnati Bengals
Strengths: The Cincinnati Bengals have one of the most complete offenses in the NFL. Carson Palmer had another brilliant season in 2006. Despite coming back from a very serious ACL injury, Palmer threw for over 4,000 yards and 28 touchdown passes. He had only 13 picks. The one negative is that his completion percentage dropped from 67.8 percent in 2005 to 62.3 percent in 2006. Still, he is arguably the third best Quarterback in the game, behind Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. . Chad Johnson and TJ “Whose your Mama” form one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL. The Bengals ranked 8th in both scoring offense and passing offense. Rudy Johnson has been a durable back that has topped over 1300 yards and scored over 12 touchdowns in each of the last 3 seasons. The Bengals are in the conversation for having the best QB, RB, and WR combos in the entire NFL. The only troubling thing on offense last season was that the Bengals as a team ranked 26th in rushing offense. Kenny Watson was their second leading rusher with just 158 yards. Chris Perry was limited to just 6 games last season. The Bengals attempted to upgrade the backup running back position by drafting Kenny Irons out of Auburn. He should be able to give the Bengals more depth at the running back position this season. On defense, the one strength the Bengals have had over the last two seasons has been forcing turnovers. They had 44 takeaways in 2005 and another 31 in 2006. The Chicago Bears were the only team to better that 75 takeaway total over the last 2 seasons. If they can return to their 2005 form, they should be able to improve on their disappointing 2006 season.
Weaknesses: The Cincinnati Bengals were the most disappointing team in the NFL last season. This was a team that entered the season with Super Bowl expectations. They started off the season 3-0, lost 5 of 6 games, won 4 consecutive games, followed by losing their last 3 games, and falling out of playoff contention. This team lacked consistency. The biggest example of this was their defense. In their 4 game winning streak from November 19 to December 10th, the Bengals allowed 8.25 points per game. Then they allowed 27 points in their 3 game losing streak to end the season. The main weakness is the same as it has been the last 3 seasons. Despite having a top 10 ranked scoring offense, the Bengals have finished no better than 17th in scoring defense the last 3 seasons. Last season they ranked 31st in total yards. The Bengals don’t need to be as good as the Bears or the Ravens on the defensive side of the ball. They need to get a lot of takeaways and keep the game competitive so that their high-powered offense can maintain balance. Drafting Leon Hall should help their 31st ranked passing defense. Jonathan Joseph looks to be a young player on the rise. Getting Odell Thurman back should help their linebackers. Justin Smith, Sam Adams, Dexter Jackson, and Deltha O’Neal are all proven veterans in this league. The Bengals have the talent in place to be a good defense. Marvin Lewis has an excellent defensive background. The Bengals need the talent on paper to translate to production on the field.
Prediction: This is a very tough division to pick. The Ravens are coming off a 13-3 season. The Steelers are 1 year removed from a Super Bowl Championship. The Browns have been both busy in the draft and the free agency signing period. I think any fan could make an argument for their team winning the division, other than the Cleveland Browns. That said, I think the Bengals will win this division. Last season derailed for two main reasons. 1) Injuries to the offensive line. The offensive line was injured very early in the season. That contributed as much as anything to their early season collapse. The season ending collapse had a lot to do with the schedule. They had to close the season against Indy and Denver on the road, and Pittsburgh at home. That was a brutal end to the season. The Bronco game they lost on a botched extra point. The Steelers game was lost in overtime. The only teams that blew them out last season were New England and Indy. This team lacked consistency and discipline, evidenced by all of the off the field arrests. It cost them in a lot of close games. While the offseason has not been entirely quiet, it seems to be getting better. However, losing Chris Henry for the first 8 games is a big loss. Despite having only 36 receptions, he did score 9 touchdowns. Antonio Chapman, Tab Perry, and Glenn Holt will have to step up in his absence. The Bengals should have enough talent at the skill positions to survive his absence. The key for the offense will be keeping the offensive line healthy and replacing Steinbach. The beginning of the season is tough. They draw Baltimore, at Seattle, and New England in three of the first four weeks of the season. After that it is a mix of tough divisional games and some games that appear to be easier, such as Buffalo, Miami, Arizona, Tennessee, and Kansas City. The big advantage they have over the Ravens is not drawing Indy and San Diego. If the Bengals can get out of the gate early, their second half schedule appears to be a lot easier than Baltimore and Pittsburgh. That should put them in position to win the AFC North title.
Record: 10-6, AFC North Division Title, AFC #4 seed
Baltimore Ravens
Strengths: The strength of this team is the same as it has been since their 2000 Super Bowl title. The Ravens have had one of the best defenses in the NFL over that span. They have ranked outside of the top 10 in defensive yardage and scoring only once, which was in 2002. They have ranked in the top 5 in scoring defense 3 times and yardage 5 times in that time span. The secondary is loaded. McAllister, Rolle, Landry, and Reed may be the NFL’s top secondary. The Denver Broncos are the only other team in the discussion. Suggs, Scott, and Lewis are fantastic linebackers. Pryce, Gregg, and Ngata make up a very solid defensive line. They lost only one starter one the defensive side of the ball, but he was a big one in Adalius Thomas. Still the Ravens should have enough talent on their roster to be among the leagues best defensive units. While the offense is not stellar, the Ravens do have some good parts. Steve McNair is a steady veteran that manages the game well and has a knack for pulling out late game heroics. Jonathan Ogden is always among the top tackles in football, Todd Heap is always among the leagues top tight ends, and Willis McGahee should offset the loss of Jamal Lewis.
Weaknesses – The weakness of this team is the same as it has been since the 2000 Super Bowl title. The Ravens have had one of the least potent offenses in the NFL over that span. The last 3 seasons saw them finish outside of the top 20 in total yards. The reason the Ravens were able to improve from 2005’s 6-10 mark to 13-3 last season was very simple. The defense improved from number 10 in points allowed and number 4 in yardage to number one in both categories. That combined with the arrival of Steve McNair allowed the offense to jump from 25th in scoring offense to 12th. The concern with this team is that the offense still lacks explosiveness, and many of the key players on both sides of the ball are reaching the ends of their career. Odgen has 11 years of experience, McNair has 12 years, and Mason has 10 years of experience. While Steve McNair was a welcome addition over Kyle Boller, McNair barely topped 3,000 yards passing, had only 16 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Not exactly explosive numbers. Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason are very average receivers. Mason had only 750 yards and 2 touchdowns. Clayton had 939 yards and 5 scores. The Ravens attempted to improve their offense by adding two guards, Grubbs and Yanda. They also added wide receiver Yamon Figurs of Kansas State. While many will point to the addition of Willis McGahee, Lewis had more attempts, yards, and touchdowns, while averaging only 0.2 yards less per carry. I think the Ravens had to take this gamble. Lewis was clearly on the decline and they needed a change. However, while McGahee was hurt last season, he has not been able to put together anything close to his rookie season.
Prediction: Baltimore has a couple of obstacles. 1) How does another year of age affect this veteran squad? Ray Lewis and Steve McNair are very tough football players. Both were able to play most of the snaps last season. Both have had injury concerns in recent seasons. Do these two stay healthy this season or does age catch up with them? 2) The schedule is brutal. After their week 8 bye they draw at Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland, at San Diego, New England, and Indy. Even for the best teams in the league, that could be a 1-5 stretch. Then they travel to Miami and Seattle, before closing at home against Pittsburgh. The key to the Ravens season is that they must start hot. They can’t go into that bye at 4-3 and expect to catch fire against that schedule. 3) How are they going to generate more offense? In 9 of their 2006 regular season wins, the Ravens allowed 14 points or less. The Ravens scored over 30 points only 2 times. To put that in perspective with the other top teams in the AFC, the Chargers did it 7 times, the Colts did that 6 times, and the Patriots did it 5 times. While the Ravens defense was stellar, they lacked the offensive firepower to advance in the playoffs. The only key addition I see on offense was the addition of Willis McGahee over Jamal Lewis. That is probably a wash. McGahee has failed to put together a season like he did in 2004. I don’t see him putting up 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns. If he can get 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns, while averaging over 4 yards a carry, I think the Ravens would be ecstatic. I think the Ravens defense is among the tops in the league and will keep them in most games and in the playoff race. However, I think age to key players, a brutal second half schedule, and the lack of adding anything of significance to the passing game will prevent this team from repeating the success of last season.
Record: 9-7, 2nd AFC North, No Playoffs
Pittsburgh Steelers
Strengths: It’s hard to look at past trends with this team, because for the first time in 15 seasons, the Steelers have a new head coach. Gone is Bill Cowher and in is Mike Tomlin. The Steelers have a lot of good players coming back, especially on the offensive side of the football. Hines Ward is as complete of a receiver as there is in the National Football League. He is always around the 1,000-yard mark; he catches touchdowns, and blocks as well as any receiver in the National Football League. Willie Parker had a breakout season, with 1,494 yards and 13 touchdowns. Ben Roethlisberger was amazing his first two seasons, advancing to the AFC Championship and Super Bowl title, before coming back to earth last season. While he threw for 3,500 yards, he threw only 18 touchdowns against 23 interceptions. Big Ben gets a pass for last season, due to the motorcycle accident he had in the offseason and the appendectomy he had to start the season. Everything went wrong for the Steelers to begin the season, and it showed with a 2-6 start. They were able to salvage the season by ending it 6-2. By that point, they had played themselves out of contention in a brutal AFC. This season he needs to settle down and make the good decisions that allowed the Steelers to be successful their first two seasons in the NFL. On defense, the Steelers were 9th in total defense and 3rd against the run. James Farrior and Troy Polamalu are among the best players at their positions.
Weaknesses: The main weakness of the Steelers was their – 8-turnover differential, which was good for a tie at 27th in the league. The Steelers have to get back to what made them a championship contending team in the Bill Cowher era. They need to run the football, use Big Ben’s abilities to stretch the field, and take care of the football. They need to play better defense. The Steelers defense was a mixed bag last season. While the Steelers were 9th in total defense and 3rd against the run, they fell to 20th against the pass. It is hard to imagine that the Steelers are going to improve against the pass this season. They released Joey Porter this offseason. While he was getting older, he was the heart and soul of their pass rush. Only the future will tell whether releasing him was the right move. The Steelers attempted to replace him by drafting Lawrence Timmons in the first round. The Steelers also bring back the same secondary they had in place last season. Besides Troy Polamalu, the rest of the secondary has question marks. Ike Taylor needs to justify his large contract extension last offseason. Townsend and McFadden will also be back in the secondary. While Tomlin was great at coaching the run defense, he ran the league worst pass defense in Minnesota. It will be interesting to see how that translates to a very similar situation in Pittsburgh.
Prediction: I think this team is heading in the wrong direction after just a year removed from the Super Bowl. I think the Steelers would have been much better served to retain either Ken Whisenhunt or Russ Grimm. Instead, they chose to hire a relative unknown in Mike Tomlin. While he put together the league’s best run defense, the Vikings ranked 14th in points allowed and last against the pass. They were 25th in sacks. The team finished 6-10. I think the Steelers would have been much better served to hire a proven assistant familiar with the organization, rather than hire a coordinator whose defense was stellar in some areas and dreadful in others. This is another team that had best start fast. Week 5 has a visit from Seattle, followed by a bye. After the bye the Steelers are at Denver, at Cincinnati, and host Baltimore. They play the Jets, Bengals, Patriots, Jaguars, Rams, and Ravens in the second half of the season. It is conceivable the Steelers could end their season 3-5. Therefore they have to beat Cleveland twice, Buffalo, and Arizona at the beginning of their schedule if they even want to think about contending for the playoffs. While some of the pieces are in place from the Championship team a year ago, I think this team is clearly in a state of transition. While I do not believe they will bottom out this season, I look for this team to struggle a bit this season. The improvement in this team will be that they shouldn’t start out 2-6 and finish 6-2. They will be more consistent. The downside is that I don’t see that being reflected in their overall record.
Record: 8-8, 3rd Place AFC North, No Playoffs
Cleveland Browns
Strengths: The strength of this team is that they finally have a young nucleus that they can build around. Brady Quinn appears to be about as much of a sure thing as a pro team could draft from the college ranks. While it will take time for him to develop, he put up great college numbers and was tutored under a head coach who knows a thing or two about developing pro quarterbacks. Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow are young developing targets. Joe Jurevicuious and Jamal Lewis provide a veteran presence to this young roster. Joe Thomas also looks to be a very sure thing on the offensive line. Signing Eric Steinbach from the Bengals provides a strong left side of the line. While they probably overpaid for Eric Steinbach, he should help in both the running game and pass protection.
Weaknesses: When you are coming off a 4-12 season, the weaknesses are lengthy. For starters, they had a –15-turnover differential, which was second to last in the league. It would be hard to believe the Browns will improve on that this season. Neither Frye nor Anderson appears to be a long-term answer at quarterback. I would expect that either of them would continue to make mistakes. If they go with Quinn out of the gate, he is a rookie. Rookie quarterbacks throw a high amount of interceptions. Their rushing offense was 31st in the league last season. Adding Steinbach and Lewis should improve on that total. However, Lewis has been averaging below 4 yards per carry. It will be interesting to see if the once dominant runner can restart his career in Cleveland. While the pass defense was promising, the rush defense was a dreadful 29th in the league. The Browns have some nice pieces on defense. McGinest and Washington are solid veterans. Kamerion Wimberly had 11 sacks last season. Sean Jones and Daven Holley each had 5 interceptions. Eric Wright should be a solid addition to the secondary. Again, there are a lot of nice parts on this team, but they need the time to develop and grow together. The bad thing for Cleveland is that a bad season will not result in a high draft pick, as the Browns traded that pick to Dallas to acquire Brady Quinn. Still that was the right move. Brady Quinn is as good as any first round pick the Browns could acquire next season, and the Browns need to add a face to their franchise that the fan base can be excited about.
Prediction: For the first time in a long time, I think Cleveland fans should be excited about their future. Since making the playoffs in 2002, the Browns have not finished over 6-10. They have failed to finish higher than 27th in scoring offense. Thomas and Steinbach should be anchors on this offensive line. Quinn should be a Pro Bowl Caliber Quarterback and the eventual face of the franchise. Edwards and Winslow are two young targets who have had off the field issues but a world of potential. Lewis is still young enough to be an effective runner. The offense is headed in the right direction. If the offense can start carrying its weight, that alone will help the defense. It is hard to be an effective defense, when your offense is running three plays and punting the ball on a good series. It is hard to be an effective defense when you finish 10th in the league in interceptions, yet finish second to last in turnover differential. That is one reason the Browns have been so bad at stopping the run. The offense never gets far enough ahead to force the other team to abandon the run. The Browns won their 4 games last season by a combined 17 points. They only scored above 30 points one time, and failed to crack 10 points on 5 occasions. No defense is going to be effective under those circumstances. The problem is that Romeo Crennel needs to win this year. He has had a 6-10 and 4-12 season to start his coaching career. Coaches traditionally get three years to turn a franchise around before getting a pink slip. The Browns biggest problem is the division they play in. If they played in the NFC North, and the Packers were in the AFC North, the Browns could perhaps contend for a playoff spot, while the Packers would be staring at last place. The Browns have to play at New England, at NY Jets, and at St. Louis. They play home games against Seattle and San Francisco. That schedule to go along with six games against the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals seems to be too much for this young team to overcome. They have some winnable games against Oakland, Miami, Buffalo, Houston, and Arizona. Realistically the Browns are not going to improve much on their 2006 record. The good news is that with a young nucleus in place, combined with the Ravens and Steelers appearing to be in decline, the Browns should be a contender in this division by 2009. The sad thing is that Romeo Crennel probably won’t be around to enjoy the foundation he has helped build.
Record: 5-11, Last Place AFC North, No Playoffs
I hope you enjoyed reading the AFC North predictions. I will try to post the AFC South sometime next week.
I live in Chicago, but am originally from Wisconsin. I am disgruntled Green Bay Packer fan that now loves the Jets. My favorite sports are Football, Basketball, and Baseball. Hockey and soccer are at the bottom of my list. I would rather watch the Spelling Bee than either of those sports. My favorite athletes of all time are Brett Favre and Michael Jordan. While I like debating many sports, NFL Football is by far my favorite topic to discuss.
In addition to this blog I am also a writer for the Fantasy Football Maniaxs. It is quite an honor to be writing with a group of knowledgeable football fanatics. The address is http://www.fa ntasyfootball maniaxs.com. I hope you enjoy the blog.
