I'm going to be away from my blog for the next couple weeks as I take a much needed break from the blogger world.  I appreciate everyone that commented on the various divisions.  What made those fun was reading all the passionate comments from various fans.

I'm going to leave an open question for people to comment on.  

This is a very simple question.  What is the thing you are the most optimistic about when it comes to your favorite team and what is the one thing that gives you the greatest concern?

Have a happy 4th of July everyone and I look forward to reading the comments when I get back. 

This is my fifth of eight NFL division previews. While there is still over a month until training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.

a) AFC East 

b) NFC East 

c) AFC South 

d) NFC South 

e) AFC North 

f) NFC North 

g) AFC West 

h) NFC West

The AFC North is a division that has some of the best rivalries in the NFL. These teams and their fans really do not like each other. The Bengals appeared to be poised to dominate the division after an 11-5 record with a young offensive core in 2005. The Steelers beat them in the Wildcard Round, won the Super Bowl, and appeared to be in complete control of the division. The Bengals have been irrelevant since. The Steelers didn’t even make the playoffs after their Super Bowl win and the 13-3 Baltimore Ravens remerged in 2006. Then the Ravens crashed to 5-11 as the Steelers took back the division. Forgotten, have been the Cleveland Browns, who came out of nowhere to win 10 games in 2007. They were one of the biggest surprises in 2007. As big free agency spenders they look to take the division for the first time since 1989.

The AFC North has been a wide-open race the last few years. Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC North.

1) Pittsburgh Steelers

07 Record: 10-6

Points Scored: 393(9th)

Points Allowed: 269 (2nd)

Playoff Result: Lost in Wildcard Round

2008 Strength of Schedule: 153-103 (.598) (1st in NFL)

Strengths: The Steelers were a great statistical team in 2007. They finished 2nd in points allowed, in large part due to the 27 points they gave up to Baltimore resting starters the last game of the season. Indy led the league with 262 points allowed. The Steelers did finish 1st in yards allowed. They were 3rd in rushing yards allowed and passing yards allowed. Mike Tomlin did a great job with this team in his first season as a NFL Head Coach.

On offense they also did well. Big Ben had only 3,154 yards passing, but recorded 32 touchdown passes. The reason for that is the Steelers threw a lot in the redzone. While the Steelers 2,168 rushing yards was 3rd in the NFL, their 9 rushing touchdowns were 22nd. With Willie Parker coming back from injury, the Steelers got a gift by having Rashard Mendenhall fall to the 23rd pick. The Steelers figure to have a formidable running attack for years to come. They should get more rushing touchdowns in 2008, so long as they can replace Alan Faneca. He is a 7-time Pro Bowler and 5-time first-team All Pro, 4 of which were between 2004 to last season. That is difficult to replace and even though the Jets overpaid for the 30 plus year old guard, the Steelers have some large shoes to fill.

They also got some receiver help. They weren’t bad there to begin with. Hines Ward is starting to drop in productivity, but is still a great blocker and team leader. He is consistently around the 1,000-yard mark with 7-10 touchdowns. Santonio Holmes is entering the magical 3rd year for wide receivers and looks to be on the verge of a breakout year. I expect him to solidify himself as the number one option. Limas Sweed is the tall receiver Big Ben wanted and should fit in well. He is a good endzone and 3rd down target. Heath Miller is a fantastic tight end.

The Steelers figure to be in the top 10 of the league in scoring in 2008 again. With the defense they have, that should mean another divisional title.

Weaknesses: Here is the million-dollar question. How does a team that finishes 1st in yards allowed, 2nd in points allowed, 9th in points scored, and throws the 6th fewest interceptions finish 10-6 and lose in the first round of the playoffs?

The problems were two-fold. The Steelers were a terrible road team. They were 7-2 at home, with their sole losses coming to Jacksonville in the regular season and playoffs. Losing to the same team twice at home was a Steeler first.

3-5 on the road is just not good enough. Furthermore those road wins were against Cleveland, Cincy, and St Louis. This team has to show better on the road against the good teams in the NFL.

The second problem was the team finished bad. After starting the season 9-3, they finished 1-4, including the playoff loss. I will give the Steelers a bit of a pass on the playoff loss, as not having Willie Parker was huge. The Steelers need play action to succeed in the passing game and that injury limited them. They also lost Aaron Smith, which hurt their run defense at the end of the season. Troy Polamalu, one of the best safeties in all of football played only 11 games last year. He missed 4 of the last 6 games in the regular season. They had some key players that were not right and were essential parts to their team.

Still injuries were not the only reason they fell short. What they need to do is get more sacks and more turnovers. The Steelers had only 11 interceptions, which was tied for last in the NFL. They are traditionally too good at pressuring the quarterback to finish that low.

Sacks were also part of their problem last year. Their 36 sacks ranked 13th in the NFL, but there wasn’t much separation between them and a team like Miami, which ranked 24th with 30.0. They need to get into the high 40s or low 50s in sacks to join the likes of the Giants (53) and Patriots (47). Increases in sacks and interceptions will help this team win more games on the road.

On offense, they need to give up fewer sacks. The Steelers tied for 7th most sacks allowed in the NFL with sacks allowed at 47. To put that in perspective the Colts and Patriots allowed a combined 44 sacks. Part of that is the offensive line. They need to pass block as well as they run block. Part of that is Big Ben. He has to get rid of the ball better and have better pocket presence.

The Steelers have to win with him being a bigger part of the offense. He has led a team to a Super Bowl, is just entering his prime, and that seems strange to say about a guy that threw 32 touchdown passes last year and made the Pro Bowl, but here is my point on that.

Big Ben threw almost 60% of his 32 touchdowns in 5 games. He totaled 19 touchdowns in wins at Cleveland, at Denver, Baltimore, Jacksonville, and at St Louis. The Steelers were just 3-2 in those games. That means in the other 11 games he had just 13 touchdown passes and the Steelers went 7-4 in those games.

In their 3 biggest blowouts he had 11 touchdown throws (at Cleveland, Baltimore, and at St Louis), but he attempted 23, 16, and 20 passes. His best games are when he throws the ball the least. The more he throws the ball, the worse the Steelers are. That is true of a lot of teams, but 30 passes is not that many passes in the NFL. It would be different if we were talking about when he throws 50 passes.

If the Steelers are going to improve on their 2007 campaign that have to be able to rely less on play action and rolling him out of the pocket. While that is a great dimension to have it should be icing on the cake, not be the focal point of the passing offense. He really needs to become better in the pocket if he is going to join the elite signal callers in the NFL.

Prediction: I really liked the Steelers draft and think they have an excellent chance to compete in the AFC. Their struggle is in the schedule, the most difficult in the NFL. They have a brutal stretch where they play Week 8) NY Giants, 9) at Washington, 10) Indy, 11) San Diego, 12) Cincy, 13) New England, 14) Dallas.

That is six 2007 playoff teams in seven weeks, which includes the two Super Bowl representatives and 3 of the 4 teams that earned first round byes. I was tempted to pick Cleveland, because they have Denver and Buffalo instead of San Diego and New England, but I resisted that temptation.

The Steelers have owned this division for a long time. They have a great defense, much better than Cleveland. The Steelers are 44-20 since 2004, which is the first year Big Ben joined the team. Other than the Super Bowl hangover season, which included a coach on the way out and Big Ben’s big motorcycle incident the Steelers have been the class of this division and won 10 games or more every other year.

Cleveland is probably going to make the playoffs this year, but they have to prove to me they can beat the Steelers before I pick them to overtake the Steelers. The Steelers don’t have a glaring weakness like the Browns pass defense. That said, Pittsburgh has an impossible schedule and will have to play better than they did last year if they want to repeat as division champs. I think they will do that.

Pittsburgh Steelers’ Record: 11-5 – AFC North Divisional Champion; AFC #4 Seed

2) Cleveland Browns

07 Record: 10-6

Points Scored: 402 (8th)

Points Allowed: 382 (21st)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 140-116 (.547) (7th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Browns had an offensive juggernaut in 2007. That said, it was anything but expected. They looked like the worst team in the league in their 34-7 opening day loss to the Steelers. They did nothing well and Crennel shipped his starter, Frye, out after the Week 1 debacle.

That was a puzzling move, but Anderson responded with 328 yards and 5 touchdowns against the Bengals the very next week. He finished with 3,787 yards and 29 touchdown passes. He appears safe as the starter, but has an anxious Brady Quinn waiting in the wings. If Anderson struggles early, the calls for Quinn will come quick and loud.

The Browns have great talent at the skill positions. Braylon Edwards finally settled into the role of star receiver with 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns. He had that magical 3rd year breakout season. Kellen Winslow, Jr also had 1,106 yards and 5 touchdowns. Both are young and coming into their own. They added Stallworth to the mix, which should really help the offense. He gives them a speed threat opposite of Edwards and should open up the middle of the field for Winslow, Jr. That puts Joe Jurevicius at his best position, which is a 3rd receiver.

Jamal Lewis rediscovered his legs and had 1,304 yards and 9 touchdowns. Keep in mind that 4 of those 9 touchdowns came against Seattle and 308 yards came in 2 games against Cincinnati. He needs to spread his production more evenly across the schedule. Jason Wright and Jerome Harrison played well in stretches last year and could contribute in a larger role this season.

Josh Cribbs is an excellent return threat and if it weren’t for Hester would be looking to claim the title as best return man in the NFL. The Browns finished 8th in points scored in 2007. With another year together they should be poised to do even more in 2008.

Weaknesses: The Browns had two weaknesses. First, and foremost was the defense. 21st in points allowed. 30th in yards allowed, 31st in 1st downs allowed, 24th in passing yards allowed, and 27th in rushing yards allowed. This was one of the worst units in the league and prevented them from doing bigger things in 2007.

Enter a free agent spending spree. They signed Shaun Rodgers and traded a 2nd round pick for Corey Williams. Davis, Jackson, McGinest, and Wimbley are solid linebackers. The front 7 should be improved with the addition of those two linemen. I expect them to stop the run better and put more pressure on the quarterback.

The problem is they didn’t address the secondary. Sean Jones is a good safety and had 5 picks last year. They lost Bodden in the Rogers trade and Holly was lost for the season in May with an injury. Terry Cousin is going to be called on to play big minutes and the Browns may have to go corner hunting on the waiver wire. They lack a shutdown corner. They didn’t have any draft picks to address the need with those picks belonging to Dallas (Quinn trade) and Green Bay (Williams trade).

That is not a good thing given the weapons the Steelers and Bengals have. They are going to need to score a lot of points, because their defense, while improved is still not among the strongest units in the NFL. The good thing is they are capable of doing that.

Prediction: I wanted to pick the Browns based on their slew of offensive weapons. I thought better of it and remembered that the defensive component does help. While the Steelers have a tougher schedule, they have the better team, which usually comes out on top. Also, keep in mind the Brown won 10 games with an easy schedule in 2007. This year figures to be more difficult this season.

Still, they are going to cause match up problems for teams with their speed at wide receiver and the points they can put up in bunches. They won with a bad defense last year and they should be even better on offense in 2008. There is no reason this team cannot win 10 games. If they can do that they should be back in the playoffs for the first time since 2002. It is much deserved for the Dawg Pound, which has been thirsting for a winner for a long time.

Cleveland Browns’ Record: 10-6 – AFC North 2nd Place; AFC #6 Seed

3) Cincinnati Bengals

07 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 380 (11th)

Points Allowed: 385 (24th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 140-116 (.547) (7th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Bengals have a great passing attack. Palmer had his 2nd consecutive 4,000-yard season and had 26 touchdown passes. The only off part for him was his 20 interceptions. He is one of the best passers in the NFL, but has yet to be consistently surrounded with a good defense that can get the Bengals into the playoffs.

TJ Houshmandzadeh busted out for 112 catches and 12 touchdowns. Chad Johnson had 1,440 yards and 8 touchdowns. Those 2 players are as productive as any receiving duo in the NFL. They cause nightmares for defensive coordinators and are perfect compliments.

Kenny Watson and Rudi Johnson combined for 1,260 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. While the Bengals only ranked 24th in rushing yards those two gave them enough considering the potency of the passing attack. The problem is the Bengals were forced to throw out of necessity in a lot of games and not choice. Their defense gave up too many points for the backs to get enough carries.

Shayne Graham is one of the best kickers in the business. He is accurate, kicks for distance, and has been an elite level kicker for the last few seasons.

Weaknesses: This team’s main weakness was defense. Defensive guru Marvin Lewis has never been able to fix that since arriving in Cincy. In 2005 and 2006 they forced a high number of turnovers to offset their large number of points. Their high-flying offense could make up for that.

Last year the Bengals were 24th in points allowed, 27th in yards allowed, 21st in rushing yards allowed, and 26th in passing yards allowed. While they were still 6th in interceptions with 19, it wasn’t nearly enough to win games, given that they were turning the ball over a lot and not running the ball well.

They lost their best defensive lineman in Justin Smith. He signed with San Fran. They added Keith Rivers at linebacker in the draft. However, they had to add wide receivers in the 2nd and 3rd round in the event Ocho Cinco is a no show. That hurt them from upgrading the defense even more. It is still going to be exploited in 2008.

In past years Rudi Johnson was a threat. He was good for 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns. Last year he was hurt most of the year and the Bengals were too one dimensional on offense. That was a big reason for Palmer’s 20 interceptions. He threw 25 in 2005 and 2006 combined.

The biggest problem is this team’s attitude. This is the weakest team in terms of mental toughness in the NFL. That starts with the front office. They had a roster of players that should have starred in the Longest Yard. Chris Henry and Odell Thurman were released because of their constant brushes with the law. Both were talented players that did not live up to expectations off the field.

That did not discourage the Bengals from drafting Jason Shirley from Fresno State. Shirley's received a two-game suspension for conduct detrimental to the team in August. He was suspended for a 2nd time in October on su####ion of driving under the influence and hit-and-run. Shirley was reinstated on November 15, but two days later, he was dismissed from the school after he was cited for su####ion of driving with a suspended license and expired registration.

Most teams would have moved on to the next player on their Big Board. The Bengals were perfectly comfortable drafting someone with that record. As long as they continue to draft players of that character, they will continue to have these problems. Adding a 5th round problem child doesn’t ruin a team. But the fact that they even drafted him given the problems they have had shows the mentality of that front office. Character is not a priority in Cincy. Management is as much responsible for the problems they have had in recent years as the players who have not been able to stay out of trouble. You can’t keep ignoring character and not expect to have these problems.

Then there is Chad Johnson. I can understand his frustration and the Bengals should have traded him. However, his attempt to acquire a trade this offseason has been nothing short of a circus. He was quoted as saying this in a June 3rd, 2008 article by Dave Fleming for ESPN Magazine, "It's the reinvention of Ocho Cinco," he says. "I'm dead serious. People need to take me as I am because I just don't give a [expletive] anymore. That's how I'd sum up my attitude for the next season."

That’s fantastic coming from one of your offensive leaders and best players. He has transformed himself from a funny and enjoyable player to a TO type player in just a couple seasons. I like Chad Johnson, but he needs to get back to the old Chad Johnson before I am going to resume enjoying him. Also, TJ Houshmandzadeh is missing mini camps looking for a new contract.

There are enough good players here, but no one appears to be on the same page. Winning is secondary at this point in Cincinnati for both the players and front office.

Prediction: The schedule is too tough for the Bengals to be playing against themselves. Pittsburgh is still good and Cleveland is fast improving. The AFC South and NFC East had 6 playoff teams in 2006. There just aren’t a lot of winnable games.

The sad thing is that quarterback is one of the hardest positions to fill and the Bengals have a great talent there. They are wasting away the prime years of Carson Palmer’s career by not adding a defense and having their skill players bicker. I feel bad for him, because I think he is a good character guy. He deserves better. It is a shame he has to play in such chaos.

The Bengals will outscore some people and win games with their offense. However, turnovers, lack of a running game, lack of defense, lack of mental toughness, and lack of teamwork will be too much to overcome against a tough schedule. If they are not careful, they could fight there way to the bottom and finish in last place in the AFC North.

Cincinnati Bengals’ Record: 5-11 – AFC North 3rd Place; No Playoffs

4) Baltimore Ravens

07 Record: 5-11

Points Scored: 334 (18th)

Points Allowed: 310 (11th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 141-115 (.551) (4th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: It is really hard to say anything good about the Baltimore Ravens 2007 season. They were coming off a 13-3 season and had acquired Willis McGahee. They were expected by many to compete with the top AFC teams for a possible Super Bowl birth. The Ravens started 4-2, before losing 9 straight games, bottoming out by losing to the winless Dolphins in Week 15. They beat the Steelers on the last day of the season to salvage a 5-11 campaign. The result was the end of the Brian Billick era and the hiring of John Harbaugh.

The strength of the Ravens starts with their defense. It has been that way since Ray Lewis arrived in 1996. Since 1999 the Ravens have finished in the top 10 in scoring defense 6 times and in the top 10 in yards allowed every year other than 2002. The Ravens were impossible to run the ball against last year. They were 2nd in rushing yards allowed, 1st in yards per rushing attempt, and 7th in rushing touchdowns allowed.

The Ravens still have a great front 7. Ngata was a great pick at defensive tackle in the 2006 draft. Terrell Suggs is still a great pass rusher and will be 26 in October. He had a down year with 5.0 sacks after consistently being in the 8-12 range. He must rebound. The million-dollar question is how much does Ray Lewis have left in the tank. The 9-time Pro Bowler and eventual first ballot Hall of Famer turns 33 years old this season. He hasn’t had 100 solo tackles since 2004, something he did 6 of the 8 seasons prior to 2004. He must stay healthy for the Ravens to have their defense at its best.

The secondary is great when healthy. Ed Reed is still the best safety in the business. McAllister and Rolle are both over 30 years old and were injured last season. That was a main reason why the Ravens finished 20th in passing yards allowed and 26th in passing touchdowns allowed. Fabian Washington and Frank Walker were brought in to address secondary depth. They should stop the pass better in 2008.

On offense, the Ravens were able to run the ball behind Pro Bowler Willis McGahee. He had 1207 yards and 7 touchdowns. That was a great season given the cast around him. Ray Rice was a nice addition to back him up in the 2nd round.

Other than McGahee, the Ravens had little to nothing on offense. They have a very anemic passing offense, evidenced by the 23rd ranking in passing yards and 28th ranking in passing touchdowns. The Ravens highest single game point total was 30 points in 2008 and they scored under 20 points 8 times. Matt Stover is a great kicker, but was all too many times the Ravens best offensive weapon.

Weaknesses: Here is how bad the Ravens quarterback situation has been in the Ray Lewis era. Last year, Kyle Boller became the all-time Raven passing yardage leader with 7,846 yards, surpassing Vinny Testeverde, who threw for 7,148 yards in 29 games in 1996 and 1997. It took Boller 53 games and 42 starts to accumulate his passing yards. It took the Ravens 10 seasons to find a quarterback with enough staying power to surpass 7,148 yards.

The Ravens have never been able to throw the ball. In 2008 they have 3 choices. Kyle Boller, who is the franchise’s all time passing yards leader and a certifiable bust. Joe Flacco is another choice. He is a rookie who played his college ball at the University of Delaware. The third option is Troy Smith, who is in his second year. He is a great leader and intangible guy who must prove to the Ravens he possesses NFL skills. It is not exactly an all-star group.

Todd Heap is a good tight end that was injured last year. He should rebound to give the Ravens a solid target in the middle of the field. Derrick Mason was solid as usual with 103 catches for 1087 yards and 5 receiving touchdowns. The only question with him is age, as he is 34 years old. Mark Clayton looked to be poised for a breakout year in 2007. He regressed to 48 catches, 531 yards, and 0 touchdowns.

The offensive line is going to be in a state of flux if Jonathan Ogden follows through on his retirement talk. He has reportedly told the Ravens not to expect him back. He is an 11-time Pro Bowler, 9-time All-Pro, and eventual first ballot Hall of Famer. It is hard to replace guys like him. Losing him is going to hurt this offense in terms of run production and protecting a young quarterback.

The Ravens didn’t have a lot of salary cap room to improve. They are going to have to improve from within to improve on their poor offensive showing from 2007.

Prediction: This is not the worst team in the league in terms of talent. It is a very solid defense with a below average offense. That should still win some games. However, it is has a horrible schedule. They play the following scoring defenses in 08: Colts (1), Steelers twice (2), Titans (8th), Eagles (9th), Jaguars (10th) Redskins (11th), Cowboys (13th). That doesn’t include the defending champion NY Giants, Cleveland who is vastly improved, and Cincinnati, who went 2-0 against the Ravens in 2007.

I think that while there are some nice young players on defense, but a few of the core players are starting to get up there in age. Ray Lewis has to play lights out if this defense is going play at a high enough level for the team to compete. They are going to be playing either a bad quarterback or an inexperienced quarterback, neither of which is a good thing. They have some nice pieces on offense, but nothing that will keep defensive coordinators up at night. McGahee can’t run effectively against 8 people in the box, and Heap needs receivers to stretch the field and give him room in the middle. Mason is a solid threat, but doesn’t stretch the field. Ogden retiring would be a terrible blow to the offensive line.

The schedule is impossible and I look for 4 wins out of the Ravens. They will play teams tough and keep the score down, but I think the offense is just too weak. The good news is they had a good draft in 08 and if Flacco or Smith is the real deal at QB they could put easily together a playoff contender in 2009 with another good draft, some free agent signings, and an easier schedule.

Baltimore Ravens’ Record: 4-12 – AFC North 4th Place; No Playoffs

That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008.  I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July.  I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008.  Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews.  You have made writing these a lot of fun.

As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.

It’s always fun to pick the winners and losers of the NFL draft just a day after the draft. This is an excerpt from an April 15, 1998 Sports Illustrated Article Where will Leaf fall? “At 6-foot-5, Leaf has the size NFL teams are looking for. His arm strength is considered better than Manning's and he threw a Pac-10 record 33 touchdowns last season while playing in the same sophisticated Washington State offense that primed Drew Bledsoe for NFL success.”

‘He gets rid of the ball quickly and he just kind of flicks it,’ said Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim Mora. ‘I mean it's not like its effortless motion. When he throws the ball it's just BOOM it goes through the air at a pretty good pace -- that impresses me.”

On the other hand that one NFL scout said this about Tom Brady prior to the 2000 draft, “Poor build, very skinny and narrow, lacks mobility and the ability to avoid the rush, lacks a really strong arm."

We really won’t know who hit home runs and who struck out until 3-5 years down the road.  Every team looks to be better with their first round and second round picks.  Most will not live up to expectations.  Most late round picks are going to be an after thought when grading these teams.  Some will bail out teams for early round mistakes. 

We can speculate that this team reached or that team didn’t get the player they needed.  None of that will come to fruition until we see how these players perform in NFL action.  It doesn’t matter if the player a GM reached for makes the Hall of Fame or the player that was an excellent value becomes a bust.  Even if they do have good seasons like Michael Vick, Chris Henry, or Pacman Jones, off the field incidents can derail certain players.  It is an inexact science and only a few players from this weekends draft will have careers longer than 3-5 seasons in the NFL.

Nevertheless, what fun is it to ignore grading the draft until 5 years from now?  Here would be my top 5 questions that emerged from the draft weekend and my 5 Winners and 5 Losers.  Keep in mind that with 32 NFL teams there is no way I could mention every team or player.  If I didn’t mention your favorite team or player talk about it in the comments section and I will try to address it.

Grading my Mock Draft – I didn’t do Mock Draft 8.0, so keep that in mind when evaluating my Mock Draft.  I did one mock draft that was published on March 31, 2008.  I am giving myself ½ point each for having both Longs going to Miami and St Louis, just mixing up the first names.  I got Ryan, Ellis, and Talib going to the right teams, which was not super.  However, I had 8 of the 10 players going correctly in the top 10, with Clady going number 12 instead of number 5.  22 of my 31 players in the mock were selected in the first round.

The only players I put in the first round that didn’t get selected on the first day were Reggie Smith and Mario Manningham, who I admitted at the time was slipping on many draft boards and that I wouldn’t be surprised in a month if he wasn’t there.  Both were selected in the 3rd round.

The position I struck out on was wide receiver.  I thought Jackson, Kelly, and Sweed would all go first round.  Not only did they fail to go first round; but also 6 receivers went before them in the 2nd round.   That was brutal. 

Overall, considering I never updated the mock draft for the month before the draft and it didn’t take into account trades, bad pro day workouts, and other issues I would give myself a B.  By no means excellent, but pretty good considering it was done a month before the NFL draft and was significantly altered by the Allen trade and the record amount of trades overall in the draft.

5 questions

1) Did Kansas City do the right thing in trading Jared Allen for a first round, two third round, and a sixth round pick? – I think the Chiefs got this right.  Allen has been disgruntled in Kansas City the last few seasons.  Even though he had 15.5 sacks despite missing a couple games and is only 26 years old, the fact is the Chiefs lost 12 games in 2007.  He wasn’t going to get the Chiefs to the mountaintop by himself.  They needed to rebuild both sides of the ball.  He was the player that could most help them do that.  By getting 4 picks they were able to add a potential Pro Bowl defensive tackle, offensive tackle, and cornerback and secure a lot of depth at other positions.

The gamble for Kansas City is that with Allen you know what you are getting.  With these guys you don’t.  The draft can be very unforgiving.  Look at what happened to Minnesota when they traded Randy Moss.  They struck out with Williamson and Harris while losing a Hall of Fame wide receiver. 

However, I think the Chiefs made some safe picks and I think the trade has the potential to help both teams.  The Vikings needed someone to pressure the ball and they couldn’t have drafted a player better than Allen.  I criticized the Vikings in the off-season for not being more assertive with a division left for the taking when #4 retired.  This was a good gamble.  The Chiefs needed to rebuild and the 5th pick in the draft wasn’t going to do that on its own.  This may end up going down as a win-win trade.

2) Did the Falcons make the right move in drafting potential franchise quarterback Matt Ryan? – While I liked Ryan, I don’t think he comes to the NFL with the optimism of a Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer.  Taking a QB third in the draft is a huge investment and one a team can’t afford to get wrong. 

Steve Young brought up an excellent point in analyzing this pick.  If the Falcons didn’t add a franchise quarterback in this draft, the pressure would mount to give Vick a second chance once he is released from Federal prison if Harrington and Redman were the only quarterbacks on their roster.

This pick not only allows the Falcons to add a player they should be able to build around, but it probably ends that controversy.  It is hard to see the Michael Vick story having any more chapters in Atlanta.  It is important for the Falcons to put that behind them.  They couldn’t afford to go into 2009 and 2010 with that cloud hanging over their head.

With Michael Turner signed as a free agent and Roddy White emerging as a promising receiver, the Falcons appear to be headed toward competitiveness by 2009 if they can continue to develop and add players.  While there were other players that could help them more this year, if they don’t pick Ryan, I don’t think they would have reason to be as optimistic.

3) Did the Dolphins select the right Long?  Absolutely.  Parcells showed his brilliance in this pick and why I believe he will turn the Dolphins around sooner rather than later.  Both players were safe picks.  I thought they would be the first two picks in the draft.  Had the Dolphins selected Chris Long first, they wouldn’t have needed to pick their second round pick, Phillip Merling.  Furthermore, I don’t think there was an offensive tackle at that pick that had as much upside as Merling.  There were 7 offensive tackles and a guard that will move to tackle in the first round.  There were only 4 defensive ends taken in the draft, 3 of which went in the top 10. 

By taking Long they were able to add two solid prospects to their offensive and defensive lines instead of one.  If both players pan out it will be a monumental decision in the rebuilding of the Miami Dolphins.

4) Did the Ravens finally draft their franchise quarterback in Joe Flacco? – I’m not so sure.  This could be an example of a team falling in love with the arm and combine and not looking at the overall product.  The kid played at Delaware, which isn’t exactly major college competition.  There are plenty of starting quarterbacks that have faired well from smaller schools. Favre played at Southern Mississippi.  Tony Romo played at Eastern Illinois.  The problem is that by selecting Flacco in the first round, the Ravens are going to have to pay a guy first round money whose resume is built playing at a small school.   The Cowboys on the other hand got to see Romo develop and play well before they coughed up the farm to keep him.  Drafting a Delaware QB in the first round is a big gamble in the NFL.

The Ravens did better than the Bears who didn’t even draft a quarterback or the Vikings who came away with an inferior prospect in John David Booty.  While Flacco is an interesting prospect, he was hardly the 18th best player in this draft.  I don’t know if they would have been that worse off selecting the best player and taking either Braum or Henne in the second round.  If Flacco becomes the Pro Bowl quarterback the Ravens never have had it was worth the gamble.  If he doesn’t it will hurt the Ravens both in the salary cap ramifications and the talent department.  At least they got several picks from the Jaguars to add other talent in the third round.  Fabian Washington was an interesting trade adding depth at cornerback.  If Flacco is a bust, they had a lot of picks on day 2 that may compensate for that.

5) What should be made of the Green Bay Packers selecting Brian Brohm in the 2nd round? – The Packers now have a full-blown quarterback controversy.  Aaron Rodgers is going to get it from all ends now.  He has a 38-year-old quarterback that keeps saying he would be tempted to comeback if he gets hurt.  Now he has a rookie quarterback that put up big college numbers that will be looking to take his job if he doesn’t do well.

Regardless, the Packers did the smart thing.  If Aaron Rodgers can’t live with Brohm being drafted in the 2nd round, he isn’t going to have the mental toughness to replace a NFL legend.  The NFL is a pressure packed league, so Rodgers better get used to it sooner rather than later.  Signing a washed up player (Culpepper) or a never was (Ferrotte) to make Rodgers feel better about himself was not the answer. 

Brohm fills two needs.  First, The Packers needed a backup quarterback and Brohm was the best option the Packers had available to them.  From a GM’s perspective of putting together the best roster possible, it makes sense.  Second, Aaron Rodgers has shown injury concerns as the backup for the most durable quarterback in NFL history.  That is not a good sign. 

The Packers have the youngest team in the NFL and are protecting themselves by taking a player with a lot of upside in case Rodgers doesn’t pan out.  If Rodgers does work out, the Packers may very well be able to get a first round pick for Brohm if he shows well in preseason games.  If Rodgers doesn’t work out they have another viable option for the future.  The value was good and the pick made sense.  Hopefully Rodgers will have the mental strength to not worry about things he can’t control and play good football in 2008.

5 Winners – Here are the teams that I thought were the class of the 2008 NFL draft.

1) Kansas City Chiefs – One reason they shot to the front of the draft is because they traded their best defender in Jared Allen.  If the Patriots had traded Tom Brady or the Colts traded Peyton Manning they could have shot to the front of this list too.  That wouldn’t necessarily make them a better team.  While the Chiefs added a lot of talent in the draft, they gave up their best defender to do it.

Still, I think that was a trade that really helped both teams.  The Vikings got the pass rusher they have coveted all off-season.  It was better to make that move than sign Justin Smith.  At 26 years old Allen should have a lot of good years in the NFL and gives the Vikings a very scary defensive line.  You have to give something to get something and while the Vikings gave up a lot of picks it has the potential to pay huge dividends. 

The trade also really helped the Chiefs, because it gave them an extra first round pick, two third round picks, and a sixth round pick.  It gave them the flexibility to rebuild this team by getting rid of a disgruntled player. 

The Chiefs used their 5th pick to get Glen Dorsey, a player that was rated as the best defensive tackle in the draft.  While they could have used defensive end or offensive tackle help, he was the best player on the board.  He should substantially upgrade their defensive line.  Then they drafted Branden Albert and upgraded their offensive line that is in dramatic need of improvement.  Finally, they drafted Brandon Flowers who a lot of people thought might sneak into the first round.  He should help improve the secondary. 

Furthermore, they had 9 picks on day 2.  Jamal Charles could be a quality running back.  Brad Cottam could provide another weapon a tight end. DaJuan Morgan has intrigue at defensive back. While it is obvious that no front office is going to go mistake free in the draft, Kansas City needed to rebuild its team in this draft.   I think they got a lot of good players at the top of the draft and may have found some potential steals.

The Chiefs gambled by sending their best defender to Minnesota.  If they were able to draft 2 Pro Bowlers, 2 starters, 2 solid contributors, and 6 busts in this draft they will have hit a home run and gone a long way to improving their chances to compete down the road.  This Kansas City draft class has the potential to be the best of all the 2008 draft classes.

2) Washington Redskins – The Redskins were terrible at wide receiver last year.  Their receivers combined for just 7 touchdowns in 2007.  Their first touchdown by a wide receiver in 2007 was by James Thrash in Week 10.   Instead of trying to trade a bunch of picks to another team to move up or get a Chad Johnson and the quick fix, the Redskins traded down.  They acquired Devin Thomas from Michigan State.  He is a bigger receiver.  Then they added Fred Davis who is an excellent receiving tight end.  Finally, they added Malcom Kelly.  Many thought he would be a first round until his bad workout.  Regardless, he is a bigger wide receiver than was good value in the second round.

On the second day they added a lot of depth.  Colt Brennan is a quarterback they can bring along slowly.  Chad Rinehart could make contributions to their line at offensive tackle.  They also upgraded at punter by drafting Durant Brooks, the Ray Guy award winner.  This was a major need as well. 

The Redskins put Jason Campbell in a great position.  Joe Gibbs liked the Smurfs, which hurt the Redskins in the redzone.  The Redskins added bigger targets so that he has more options in the redzone.  When you add these skill position players to Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, and Antwaan Randle-El; the Redskins should be more productive in the redzone at the receiver spot. 

Again, while history shows that all 3 players will probably not work out, the Redskins are not going to be on the hook for large salaries with all these players coming in the second round.  They did the best job they could to add big playmakers to their offense.  If one can be a Pro Bowler and the other a solid playmaker the Redskins will be very pumped about this draft.

3) Miami Dolphins – Having a 1-15 record puts a GM in position to hit the homerun of the draft.  The Dolphins did not disappoint. The Dolphins drafted the top offensive line prospect in the draft with Jake Long.  Furthermore, they signed him prior to the draft so they don’t have to worry about a holdout like the Raiders had with Russell in 2007.  Then on the Friday before the draft they acquired inside linebacker Akin Ayodele and tight end Anthony Fasano from the Dallas Cowboys for a fourth-round draft pick, the 100th pick overall pick.  That was good value.

In the second round they acquired Phillip Merling who some experts projected as a middle to late first round pick.  He should help on their defensive line.  Then at the end of the first round they drafted Chad Henne as a potential quarterback of the future.

The Dolphins had good picks and got great value for those picks.  On the second day the continued to add guards, defensive lineman, and a couple running backs.  Shawn Murphy is an interesting selection in the 4th round.  He was a good guard at Utah State and will have to prove he is able to make the jump from small school to the pro level.

While the Dolphins are probably not going to be a playoff contender in 2008 because of this draft, it is hard to fix 1-15 in one year.  They are starting to add pieces to this puzzle.  The Dolphins finally have solid leadership in the front office and it showed this weekend.

4) Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers showed why they are consistently one of the better teams in the NFL.  Many people thought they would upgrade their secondary or their defensive line.  If they were going to upgrade on offense it surely would be guard. 

Instead of reaching for players they drafted the best available players and it could really pay off.  Rashard Mendenhall was a steal at the 23rd pick and gives them some insurance should Willie Parker not return from knee surgery at full strength.  If Parker does return at 100% the rookie is a great compliment.  Then they granted Big Ben’s wish to upgrade the receiver spot with a taller receiver and added 6’3” plus receiver Limas Sweed in the second round.  Many people thought he would be one of the first two receivers taken in the entire draft.  I saw mock drafts that had him going to Buffalo with the 11th pick

This improvement in the skill positions should really help their squad.  In the second day they added linebacker and secondary depth, which was also a goal of this draft.  They also added Dennis Dixon, who could be a good value if he can recover from knee surgery.  He may move to receiver. 

They gave Big Ben a $100 million dollar contract and then gave him skill players to put him in the best possible situation to continue his solid development.  Adding these skill position players was a major positive for the Steel City.

5) Dallas Cowboys – I like the Felix Jones pick, but I think they should have gone with Rashard Mendenhall at that pick.  I had him rated slightly higher than Jones.  However, Jones is an excellent compliment with his pure speed to the power of Marion Barber.  The pick makes sense in that respect.

Then the Cowboys added Mike Jenkins, whom I thought was the best cornerback prospect in the draft. I thought the Patriots would entertain him at the seventh pick.  That gives them some options if Pacman Jones is not reinstated in time for the regular season. If Jones does work out, they couldn’t have found that type of talent with the 4th round pick they gave up.  Finally, the Cowboys added a potential weapon at the 2nd tight end spot in Martellus Bennett. 

The second day produced only 3 picks and no major names.  The Cowboys goal was to hit a home run and add Pro Bowl talent to their roster in the first and second round.  They have excellent potential to do that.  Those rookies will be in an excellent position to succeed seeing they are going to a team that finished 13-3.  With a third round pick, fourth round, and a sixth round pick the Cowboys have the potential to add more depth and hit a home run in this draft.

5 Losers – Here are the 5 teams that have to be scratching their heads after this draft.

1) Tennessee Titans – Evidently, the Titans are not interested in giving Vince Young anything that resembles a NFL wide receiver.  I think this is a team that got caught up in the 4.24 40-yard time and reached for a player at a position they didn’t need to upgrade.  Chris Johnson is a fine prospect, but they have used second round picks on Henry and White in the last couple drafts to bolster the running game.  White had 1,110 yards and 7 touchdowns, so it wasn’t like they were strapped at that position.

Justin Gage was their leading receiver with 750 yards.  They have to find a way to upgrade that position.  Then they drafted a defensive end in Jason Jones out of Eastern Michigan.  While he may be a good player, he doesn’t play wide receiver.  The only offensive players they selected in the draft were Chris Johnson, Craig Stevens who plays tight end, and Lavelle Hawkins who was the number 2 receiver for California.  I’m not sure if that is what Vince Young had in mind.  William Hayes in the 4th round seemed like a huge reach seeing Mel Kiper, Jr. was the only person at the draft that had even researched the guy.  That was widely considered a head-scratching pick.

Giving Vince Young some toys had to be a major goal of this draft.  The Redskins gave Jason Campbell three toys.  Donovan McNabb got DeShaun Jackson.  Vince Young got a speed project at running back and a couple middle round picks.  I don’t see how the Titans are putting themselves in position to have Vince Young become the player they want him to be. 

I was critical of the Titans for doing this in 2007 and they made the playoffs.  I still think to compete in the AFC playoffs, you need to score a lot of points.  The Patriots and Colts speak for themselves.  The Chargers have a lot of weapons.  Jacksonville and Pittsburgh understand that and added skill position players in free agency and the draft to keep pace.  Cleveland is getting stronger and missed out by a tie last year. 

Vince Young needs someone to throw the ball two and it is doubtful they found what they needed in the second day of the draft.  In the ever-competitive AFC South it is imperative to keep making strides forward if the Titans want to return to the playoffs in 2008.

2) Detroit Lions – Why are the Lions bad year in and year out.  It is because they underachieve in the draft. Gosder Cherilus has the potential to be a solid starter.  However, most teams had Jeff Otah as a much higher prospect.  I thought this was a substantial reach.  Furthermore, last I checked the Lions only running back with substantial NFL experience on their roster was Tatum Bell.  That isn’t exactly an ideal player to have as your featured running back. Rashard Mendenhall would have been a great value. 

Then instead of drafting Ray Rice or one of the good second round prospects at running back, they added Jordon Dizon, who was described by ESPN Scout’s Inc., “Looking at Dizon in street clothes or watching him run you wouldn't think he could be an NFL linebacker; he lacks ideal size, doesn't have great range and can be a liability in man coverage. But Dizon is a classic overachiever.” 

I’m not sure if that is what I am looking for in the second round.  The Lions finally got around to drafting a running back in the third round with Central Florida’s Kevin Smith.  That made up for some of the sins they committed in the first two rounds. Andre Fluellen and Cliff Avril could potentially help on the defensive line. 

I thought the Lions needed to come away with an impact running back.  While Smith may eventually do that, I thought it was a mistake to pass on the much higher prospect.    This draft had a lot of question marks, which is nothing new for the Motor City. 

3) St Louis Rams – When a team has the second pick in the draft they have to do better with their high picks in later rounds.  Chris Long should be a solid pass rusher for years to come and was the correct pick in my opinion.  But what were the Rams doing selecting Donnie Avery with the thirty-third pick overall in the second round? 

Avery does have speed, but is somewhat undersized.  A lot of the reports I have been reading say that he is not a strong route runner.  I thought there were a lot of other options that would have been better at this point.  The Rams squandered a chance to hit a homerun in the draft by reaching for a player that I don’t necessarily think will end up being an impact player.

Then they drafted Justin King on day two.  He is a corner with great skills that was burned on a regular basis and should have gone back to school. Keenan Burton could be a sleeper at wide receiver.  All in all I thought the Rams had a great first pick and a lot of questions after that.  With the 2nd pick in the draft, you certainly hope for more players that can make an immediate impact.

4) Cincinnati Bengals – Keith Rivers was a good pick, but nothing spectacular at number 9.  I thought he would slip later into the first round.  But what was the Bengals thinking by drafting Jerome Simpson in the second round before Limas Sweed, DeSean Jackson and Malcolm Kelly?

The fact is that Simpson is coming into a great situation and may put up solid numbers in his first year, because of the QB situation he is coming into.  Not many rookie receivers get to play with a quarterback as polished as Palmer and with receivers like Chad and TJ.  It is a great situation for this youngster, but I’m not sure it was the best value at that spot in the draft.

Furthermore, I would have tried to work something out with the Redskins in regards to Chad Johnson.  While I gave the Redskins credit for trading down, I think they stumbled into that.  Snyder would have given away the farm had he had someone that would have obliged him.

Chad Johnson doesn’t want to be there and they had a chance to add high draft picks for him.  Now that soap opera will hang over Cincy until training camp and into the beginning of the regular season.  While Simpson may be ready to contribute as a number 3 guy in his rookie year, I’m not so sure about a number 2. 

The Bengals did okay in the later rounds.  Andre Caldwell was an interesting choice at wide receiver.  If he can stay healthy he could contribute.  Given the Bengals character concerns, Jason Shirley was a bit of a surprise.  He was suspended from the team for driving under the influence.  At least he doesn’t have Chris Henry to party with when he arrives for camp. 

While I think the later picks were slightly better than the Rams later picks, I think the success of this draft is too dependent on Rivers panning out.  If he becomes a Pro Bowl player it will be remembered as a successful draft.  I don’t think they did much after that.  I didn’t think they got the #### they needed out of their first two picks, which are the players they need to contribute in 2008.  Given the upgrades the Browns made in free agency and the Steelers made in the draft, it seems hard to see the Bengals moving back toward the top of the division in 2008.

5) New England Patriots – I guess you aren’t supposed to question the organization that does well in the draft year in and year out?  I was disappointed that a lot of experts didn’t go after the Patriots.  I think that is because of their proven track record in the draft. 

I liked obtaining the extra pick in the 3rd round by moving just 3 spots down in the trade with New Orleans.  But, I don’t think they did what they needed to in this draft. Jerod Mayo was a fine player for Tennessee, but a lot of people consider him a work in progress.  He is a middle linebacker than can play the outside, which is good in the 3-4 system that New England runs.

I was 8-10 with players being selected in the top 10.  Ryan Clady went at number 12, something I couldn’t have envisioned at the time, because I didn’t know the Chiefs would trade Allen when I did the mock draft.  Mayo I didn’t even have in the first round.  I thought he would be an early second round pick that might sneak into the end of the first round.  I thought Jenkins, McKelvin, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Branden Albert all could have filled needs and were all significantly better players than Mayo.  All would have all filled areas of need for the Patriots.

Terrence Wheatley was then selected in the second round.  Not only do I not like his upside as much as the other 3 corners that I listed above, but I think the Patriots could have found a linebacker at that spot that would have improved two positions.  Dan Conner at that spot would have been more enticing to me than Wheatly.  When combined with one of those top corners, it could have helped the Patriots more in the long run.

The Patriots always seem to do well in the draft, so they probably will grade out very high in a couple years.  Mayo is going to a great system for his talents and the Patriots consistently get their day 2 picks right.  They selected linebacker depth and special teams help.  Linebacker Shawn Crable is a player many people think may help sooner rather than later. They also drafted a quarterback in Kevin O’Connell. 

Still, when a 16-0 team gets the 7th pick in the draft, I think people were expecting a bigger name than Mayo.   I think you could argue that they got the 20th best player in the top 25 picks of the draft, trailing only Baker, Cherilus, Flacco, C. Johnson.  You hope for more than that with the 7th pick in the draft.  That is my criticism of the Patriots, although if he turns out to be the real deal the Patriots will be in good shape.

That is my draft recap.  Now that the draft is over I will put together my list of 5 winners and losers with regards to the NFL schedule and aim for starting my division previews in May.  Stay tuned to this blog and www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com for continuing coverage of the NFL.

 

I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate Steve McNair on a terrific 13 year NFL career with the Houston Oilers / Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens.  Steve McNair was one of those guys that you respected even though he wasn’t on your team.  He always gave 110% and played through a slew of injuries.  He was a great ambassador for the Mississippi area when his home state was ravaged by Hurricane Katrina.  He is someone the NFL will miss not only for his on the field play, but the great contributions that he had off the field.

Steve McNair came into the NFL as a Division I-AA Walter Payton Award winner.  His nickname in college was Air-McNair, a name he earned for the wide open offense he ran at Alcorn State.  In his senior season he threw for 4,863 yards and rushed for 936 yards.  He also threw for 44 touchdowns.  That prompted the Houston Oilers to select him 3rd in the 1995 NFL Draft.

After only playing in 4 games his rookie season and 9 games his second season learning behind Chris Chandler he was put into the starting lineup in 1997.  From 1997 to 2003, McNair missed only nine of the possible 112 regular-season starts.  Five of those misses were due to back surgery.  Steve McNair developed a reputation of being able to play through injuries that most players would not dare try.  He and Brett Favre were widely considered the two toughest quarterbacks in the NFL.

The Titans finished 8-8 in both 1997 and 1998.  In 1999 the pieces finally started to come together for the Titans.  Steve McNair was coming into his own as a NFL quarterback.  Eddie George dominated the running game.  Frank Wycheck was a Pro Bowl tight end.  Derrick Mason was a dangerous return man that would come into his own the following year.  The defense received the piece it was missing by drafting a Florida defensive end named Jevon “The Freak” Kearse.  The Titans would finish 1999 13-3, but second in the division to the 14-2 Jacksonville Jaguars. 

Thankfully for the Titans, the Jags two losses were to the Titans.  After beating the Bills in the Music City Miracle and the Colts in a Divisional Round contest, the Titans would beat the Jaguars for the 3rd time that season and advance to the Super Bowl.  They would lose to the St Louis Rams 23-16.  In the closing seconds of the game McNair hit Andre Dyson who sprinted for the endzone.  He was stopped 1-yard shy of the endzone and from potentially sending the game to overtime.

The Titans would build off that win in 2000 and go 13-3 with the best record in football.  They were the favorite to win the Super Bowl, but were upset in the Divisional Round by the eventual champion Baltimore Ravens.  After finishing 7-9 in 2001 they would bounce back to go 11-5 in 2002 and advance to the AFC Championship Game, where they would lose to the Oakland Raiders.  In 2003 they finished 12-4 and Steve McNair shared his first and only MVP award with Peyton Manning.  The Titans would win their first round game against Baltimore, but fell to eventual champion New England. 

By 2004 the salary cap had started to catch up with the Titans.  Forced to cut many of their high priced veteran starters the Titans crashed to 5-11 in 2004 and 4-12 in 2005.  McNair started only 8 games in 2004 and 14 in 2005.  By then the Titans wanted to move on and draft Vince Young.  What followed was a messy parting of the ways, in which McNair was banned from the team facilities and had to sue the Titans.  Eventually McNair won his lawsuit and the Titans and Ravens worked out a trade to send McNair to Baltimore. 

In 2006 McNair led the Ravens to a 13-3 record and was again back in the playoffs.  However, after earning a first round bye the Ravens would fall to the eventual champion Indianapolis Colts in the Divisional Round 15-6.  Of McNair’s 5 playoff losses, 4 were to the eventual Super Bowl Champion and the other was to the 2002 Oakland Raiders, who were the runner up that season. 

In 2007 McNair was not right the entire season.  Unable to stay healthy he only appeared in 6 games.  That was the primary factor that led to the announcement of his retirement.  He finished his NFL Career 31,304 yards passing, 174 touchdowns to 119 interceptions and a career QB rating of 82.8.   He also carried for 3,590 yards and 37 touchdowns, which are top 5 career numbers for a quarterback.

Now that Steve McNair has retired the question is going to come up as to whether or not he had a Hall of Fame career.  While I think he was a very good quarterback that enjoyed a fine NFL career and should have absolutely no regrets, I don’t think he played at a high enough level to warrant induction into Canton.  The reasons are as follows:

1) Lack of big regular season numbers – Supporters will look at his 20th career ranking in completions, 23rd in attempts, 28th in passing yards, 43rd in career touchdowns, and his 27th career quarterback rating and conclude that he was a Hall of Famer.  You have to go deeper than that.  First, he played his entire career in the pass friendly era of the late 1990s and 2000s.  His numbers are comparable to Hall of Famers that played the majority or their entire career in the Dead Ball Era.  Second, he finished in the top 10 in completions, attempts, and passing yards only twice.  He was in the top 10 in passing touchdowns only 3 times. 

People will point to his rushing numbers.  That is one of the difficulties in evaluating quarterbacks.  Some people value those rushing numbers more than others.  My belief is that a quarterback’s primary job is to pass the ball and those are the numbers a quarterback should ultimately be judged upon.  Until a rushing quarterback carries a team to multiple rings and redefines the quarterback position I am sticking to that theory.  While the Titans won a lot of games in his tenure, he never accumulated the passing numbers that I believe are necessary for Hall of Fame induction.

2) Lack of Postseason Success in relation to the Regular Season Numbers – McNair went 5-5 in the postseason and did get his team to the Super Bowl once.  While he did not play great in that game he did play well enough to have his team in that game until the last play.  People will compare his career numbers to Troy Aikman and see that McNair outperformed him over the course of his career.  The problem is that Aikman led the Cowboys to 3 Super Bowl rings in a 4 year period.  Had Aikman appeared in one Super Bowl and lost, he wouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame either.  In my opinion, Steve McNair didn’t experience enough success in the postseason to make up for his low regular season numbers to make the Hall of Fame. 

3) He didn’t have a sustained period as the best quarterback in the game – Early in his career he didn’t measure up to Troy Aikman, John Elway, Brett Favre, Dan Marino, or Steve Young.  He didn’t measure up to Tom Brady, Brett Favre, or Peyton Manning later in his career.  Kurt Warner and Rich Gannon both had points where they were better quarterbacks.  Both also won MVP awards.  Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb were better at points in their careers.  The result is that while he did win the MVP in 2003, that 4 year stretch from 2000 to 2003 is the only time he was considered an upper echelon quarterback.  He was a 3 time Pro Bowler in 2000, 2003, and 2005; meaning he never put together consecutive Pro Bowls.  He was never a NFL All-Pro.  He never had a season that left fans in awe like Marino in 1984, Farve in 1996, Warner in 1999, Culpepper in 2004, Manning in 2004, and Brady in 2007. 

I believe the Hall of Fame is more about how long you were an elite quarterback than what kind of career numbers you were able to accumulate.  I don’t think that Vinny Testaverde is worthy of Canton induction and he ranks in the top 6 in passing yards, touchdowns, attempts, and completions.   I would definitely put McNair ahead of Vinny, because of the MVP award, rushing production, and the fact that McNair led his team to a Super Bowl appearance.  I just wouldn’t put him in the Hall of Fame.

Again, congratulations to Steve McNair for a wonderful career.  While I don’t believe it was a Hall of Fame career, that in no way should diminish his career accomplishments.  He was an extremely tough player and played through injuries that a lot of guys would not have been able to.  He gave the fans a lot of great moments over the years and always conducted himself with the utmost class.  He was a great ambassador to the NFL both on and off the field.  Most importantly, he was respected through out the NFL.  If the league had more Steve McNairs it would be a better league for it. 

 

 

    

New England survived a second consecutive scare and won a game that Baltimore should have won had it not been for a huge meltdown caused by questionable penalties and a lack of intelligence or execution.  The Patriots are three fourths of the way to perfection.  Dallas won the Game of the Century, Part III and became the second team in the 2007 season to clinch a playoff birth.  Meanwhile, Miami lost their best chance to gain a victory this season.  They are three fourths of the way to perfect imperfection.  If I didn't mention your favorite player or team, it isn't because I didn't watch the game or research the game.  It's because it would be impossible to mention every player or game in one newsletter.  Please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team.  Simply mention it in the comments section, and I will try to address it.  I hereby present to you a recap of the thirteen week in the National Football League. 

Standings
 

AFC East                                NFC East
1.New England (12-0)**      1.Dallas (11-1)*
2.Buffalo (6-6)                        2.NY Giants (8-4)
3.NY Jets (3-9)                       3.Washington (5-7)
4. Miami (0-12)                       4.Philadelphia (5-7) 

 AFC South                              NFC South
1.Indianapolis (10-2)            1. Tampa Bay (8-4)
2. Jacksonville (8-4)              2. New Orleans (5-7)
3. Tennessee (7-5)               3. Carolina (5-7)
4. Houston (5-7)                     4. Atlanta (3-9)

 AFC North                              NFC North
1.Pittsburgh (9-3)                  1.Green Bay (10-2)
2.Cleveland (7-5)                  2.Detroit (6-6)
3.Cincinnati (4-8)                  3. Minnesota (6-6)
4.Baltimore (4-8)                   4.Chicago (5-7)

 AFC West                             NFC West
1. San Diego (7-5)                1. Seattle (8-4)
2. Denver (5-7)                      2.Arizona (6-6)
3. Kansas City (4-8)             3. San Francisco (3-9)
4. Oakland (4-8)                    4. St Louis (3-9)
 
**Clinched Division
* Clinched Playoff Spot

MVP of the Week:  I would start with Tony Romo who rose to the occasion and had 309 yards and 4 touchdowns in the victory over Green Bay.  Honorable mentions to Peyton Manning who had 288 yards and 4 touchdowns in the Colt’s huge victory over Jacksonville.  LT had 177 yards and 2 touchdowns over Kansas City.  Reggie Wayne, TO, and Joey Galloway all had over 150 yards receiving with Wayne and TO adding a touchdown.  Finally Lofa Tatupu, who had 11 tackles and 3 interceptions in Seattle’s victory over Philly.

Game of the Week:  This would probably be the hardest week for me to pick.  Dallas and Green Bay had a great start to the week.  The Packers were down 27-10 after 5 possessions and Favre was knocked out of the game.  Aaron Rodgers had the game at 27-24 entering the 4th quarter.  That would prove to be a 37-27 Dallas victory.  AJ Feeley threw his 4th pick near the Seattle endzone to seal a 28-24 victory for the Seahawks.  The Giants and Bears played an exciting 21-16 game in Chicago.  Rex Grossman had a few Hail Marys from the Giants 30 yard line that were unsuccessful.  Buffalo and Washington was decided on a game winning field goal for Buffalo.  Tampa and New Orleans was decided bay a touchdown with just 17 seconds left in a bizarre ending to that game.  But the winner was the Patriots and Ravens on Monday Night.  For the second straight week a 20-point underdog found a way to stay in the game until the final seconds.  The last drive featured two fourth down conversions, one of which was by penalty.  The Patriots capitalized on penalties and Raven’s meltdowns to keep perfection alive.

Loser of the Weak:  The Detroit Lions.  Playoff teams can’t lose 42-10 in the midst of a 3 game losing streak at Minnesota.  Miami Dolphins.  Winless teams can’t lose 40-13 in their most winnable game left in the season.    AJ Feeley who had one touchdown and 4 interceptions in a home loss to Seattle.  Backup or starter; 3 picks to Lofa Tatupu is not an acceptable performance.  Denver Broncos.  Playoff hopefuls do not lose at Oakland by 2 touchdowns.  Finally, the Officials and Ravens Defense.  Officials are like small children.  Other than the Head Referee, they should be seen and not heard.  Their questionable calls and chatter with the Ravens was embarrassing and needs to be addressed.  I’m not buying into the conspiracy theory that the league wants the Patriots to go 16-0.  Still you don’t want situations that create the appearance of impropriety.  The questionable calls didn’t create that as much as the unnecessary chatter with the Ravens players.  It made it look like the calls were becoming personal rather than objective, whether or not that was actually the case.  Bart Scott throwing a flag into the stands and having 30 of the Ravens 35 yards of penalties was equally a joke.  Evidently it wasn’t important that offense get the ball in good field position a big spot.  That reaction showed me one thing.  The defense does not acknowledge that the offense is even part of that team.  If they had, they wouldn’t have gotten 35 yards in penalties.  Whether that attitude is justified is another question.  It looked clear to me that Brian Billick has lost his team and that a change would probably do both parties well. 

The Bay of Pigs:  I’m not going to name one this week.  The only candidate would be the Buffalo and Washington game.  I respect what the Redskins did in just taking the field in the most difficult of circumstances.  The Sean Taylor homicide last week with a looming funeral on Monday followed by a Thursday Night Game this week made playing that game a very difficult challenge.  They handled that as well as could be expected.    

The Cam Cameron Award (Excellence in Coaching):  I have a lot of candidates this week.  1) Joe Gibbs calling 2 consecutive timeouts.  That is a 15-yard penalty and resulted in Buffalo having a 36-yard field goal instead of a 51-yard attempt.  Gibbs was a class act after the game and took full responsibility for the mistake, 2) Tom Coughlin.  He won the game, but Chicago had 3 attempts at the endzone, because he elected to score a touchdown with 1:33 instead of taking the knee at the 1-yard line and depleting the Bears of both time and timeouts.  Then he didn’t go for 2 points that would have made it a 6-point game instead of a 5-point game.  Apparently he feel the extra point is a formality for the Bears, but a field goal from the same distance is too risky for his squad. I instantly became a Bears fans because I hate seeing stupidity rewarded, 3) Sean Payton.  Can’t call a half back reverse gadget play late in the game trying to run out the clock with a lead.  The result was a Reggie Bush turnover and new life for the Bucs. 4) Finally, Brian Billick.  Not so much for his timeout that negated a 4th down stop of the Patriots.  That could happen to anyone.  It was unfortunate.  The real problem is that he was unable to keep his defense together after that.  That final drive demonstrated the lack of cohesion between Offense, Defense, and Coaching Staff.  As I stated above, that is a team in desperate need of a change at the top.

Hospital Visit:  Steve McNair is in need of shoulder surgery.  He is out for the season and his career is definitely at a crossroads.  Roy Williams is expected to be out for the season with a sprained knee.  Dolphins safety Cameron Worrell is out for the season with an ACL tear.  Derrick Ward broke his leg in the Giants game and is out indefinitely.  Jeff Garcia has no structural damage to his back.  He is questionable to play against Houston next week.  Finally, Brett Favre separated his left shoulder and bruised his elbow.  He is expected to make his 250th consecutive start this week against the Raiders. 

Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:

1) What is happening to the Detroit Lions? –  This was a team that was the product of a favorable opening schedule.  They played 2 games against the Bears.  They played Minnesota early in the season with a young QB.  Oakland and Denver were nice opponents.  Tampa is really their only solid win.  Since the 6-2 start they have played Arizona, NY Giants, Green Bay, and Minnesota.  Four consecutive games against playoff contenders.  The result has been a 0-4 stretch where they have been outscored by an average score of 31.5 to 16.  They have allowed over 30 points in 3 of the 4 games.  They have lost by 10 plus points in 3 of the 4 games.  Simply put, Detroit was very fortunate at the beginning of the season.  They won an OT game against Minnesota at home.  They scored 34 points in the 4th quarter against Chicago.  They picked Griese 7 times in those two wins.  They also created their own fortune in their blowout win over Denver and their close victory over Tampa Bay.   The problem for the Lions is they are 2-4 on the road as compared to 4-2 at home.  Their last 2 home games have been to (8-4) NY Giants and (10-2) Green Bay.  Hence, the 4 game losing streak.  Detroit has made a lot of strides since last season.  They are competitive and relevant.  They have a chance to not have 10 losses this season and a chance to win 8 games.  However, they are not a playoff team.  They can’t run the football, they turn the ball over too much, they don’t protect the QB, and they can’t stop the pass.  As of late, they aren’t stopping the run either.  Detroit is a good story and is finally headed in the right direction for the first time since Barry Sanders retired and Matt Millen took over.  However, they are still not a playoff team.

2) Can Jacksonville Challenge the Top 3 in the AFC? – No really.  They just don’t have enough explosion in the offensive part of the game to contend with these three teams.  They have a fantastic defense, they run the ball well, and they don’t make many mistakes.  Garrard had his first pick of the season this week.  They play good teams tough because they are as physical as any team in the league.  However, they just don’t score enough. They rank 14th in scoring offense.  That will be enough to beat the Texans, Titans, Broncos, and some of the other teams on their schedule.  However, good offense usually beats good defense.  To beat the Colts, Patriots, and Steelers teams usually have to score 30 points to beat those teams.  The Jags have scored over 30 points just twice this season, against Buffalo and Denver.  Furthermore, the Colts, Patriots, and Steelers all have respectable to great defenses.  Jacksonville will be a tough out and if one of those three teams overlooks the Jags, the Jags could make them pay in a single elimination situation.  While they should make the playoffs and win a first round playoff game, I can’t see them seriously challenging the top three teams in the AFC.

3)  Previewing Pittsburgh (9-3) at New England (12-0) – This is a fascinating matchup. The Patriots have not been the same team they were in their first 8 ballgames.  They have scored 24, 56, 31, and 27 points in their last four contest.  The Colts game was decided by 4 points.  Fair enough, the Colts are arguably the 2nd best team in the NFL.  The Bills was the expected blowout.  But the Eagles are 5-7 and the Ravens are 4-8.  These are games the Patriots are supposed to win.  It hasn’t so much been the offense that is troubling.  Those point totals are great by most team’s standards.  It’s the 20.5 points per game the defense is allowing.  Is this simply a matter of a team with nothing left to play for losing its focus?  Possibly, but the Patriots defense is definitely not scaring people in recent weeks.  The 24 points the Ravens scored on Monday was their third highest total of the season.  This was an offense that had scored 14 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games.  The defense will have to play better against the Steelers if they want to win this week.  On the Steelers side it is very simple.  They have the running back to attack the Patriots.  Miller is good at stretching the middle of the field.  Ward and Washington are good targets.  Big Ben can win big games.  The Steelers are 7-0 on the road as opposed to 2-3 on the road.  This game is in Foxboro.  Are the Steelers good enough to go on the road and beat a quality team?  So far they have losses at Arizona, Denver, and the NY Jets.  The Steelers will not only need to play their very best game of the season, but do so in an environment they have not thrived in this season.  I look for the game to similar to the Colts game and in the 20s.  While I would not be surprised if Pittsburgh won the contest, until they prove they can play well on the road, I am going with the Patriots. 

4) Is Minnesota the front-runner for the NFC’s #6 seed – They definitely are one of the hottest team in the NFC.  Dallas has won 6 games in a row.  Seattle and Tampa Bay have won 4 in a row.  Minnesota is next in line with 3 in a row.  Outside of the division leaders, they are playing as well as any of the wild card contenders.  The schedule sets up fairly well for the Vikings.  They play the 49ers on the road.  Bears and Redskins at home.  They finish at Denver.  None of these teams have a winning record.  Their combined winning percentage is .375.  Those 4 teams rank 26th, 27th, 10th, and 31st against the run.  That does not bode well for the opposition.  Furthermore, 3 of the Vikings 6 losses are to the Packers and Cowboys.  They were in two of those 3 games.  If they had an easier schedule or division they could easily be 8-4 right now.  If you take the 34-0 beat down the Packers gave the Vikings at Lambeau, there 5 losses are by 30 points or 6 points per contest.  This is a young team that has played competitive and is learning to win at the right time.  None of the other 5 NFC playoff teams wants to see Adrian Peterson in the playoffs.  He is a guy that could bust out for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns in a playoff game and knock out a better team in the playoffs.  The key is that Jackson is starting to throw the ball a lot better than he was at the beginning of the season.  While he is not going to be confused for one of the top QBs in the league, he has a plus 100 rating in his last 2 games.  He also has only one interception.  I look for the Vikings to get to 9-7, which is a lot better than I had them pegged for at the beginning of the season.  Detroit and Arizona are their main remaining competition for the #6 seed.  Detroit is in a 4 game tailspin and has a brutal schedule left that features Dallas, Green Bay, and San Diego.  Arizona has Seattle and New Orleans, but closes with Atlanta and St Louis.  I believe that Arizona and Minnesota set up the best to make a run for that #6 seed.

5) The Playoff Picture – The NFC started to clear up a lot after this week.  Three of the four divisions appear to be sealed.  Dallas needs one win in their next four games to clinch the East and two games to clinch homefield advantage.  They have a one game lead over Green Bay with tiebreaker for home field advantage.  Green Bay needs one victory in their next four to clinch the North.  They have a 2 game lead over Seattle and Tampa for a first round bye.  Tampa has basically won the NFC South.  They have a two game lead and tiebreakers over New Orleans and a week 17 matchup at home against fading Carolina.    It will take a monumental collapse by Dallas, Green Bay, or Tampa Bay will be needed for the challengers to catch them.  The only division with intrigue is the NFC West.  Seattle has a 2 game lead over Arizona.  This Sunday’s game between the two will decide whether Seattle wins the division or if we have a race to the finish.  The NY Giants have a 2 game lead in the wildcard and appear to be in great position for one wildcard.   The Cardinals, Lions, and Vikings are all 6-6.  Four teams are further back at 5-7.  In the AFC the Patriots have clinched the division and are two victories away from clinching the number one seed.  Pittsburgh and Indianapolis have two game leads with tiebreakers over Cleveland and Jacksonville.  Those divisions appear to be over with those two teams fighting for the other first round bye.  San Diego has opened up a 2 game lead over Denver and 3 game lead over Kansas City and Oakland.  There is a week 16 matchup between Denver and San Diego looming, but Denver will have to win out in order for that game to matter.  Jacksonville at 8-4 is still in solid position for the first wildcard.  Tennessee and Cleveland are still solid at 7-5 and will battle for the final wildcard.  Buffalo is trailing at 6-6 with a host of teams sitting at 5-7.  These teams are long shots should the frontrunners falter.

A Look Ahead:  I went 3-3 on the picks last week.  Green Bay did not do as well as I hoped in Dallas, Cleveland lost a close game in The Desert, and the Lions have failed me for the last time.  Here are my important games for next week other than Pittsburgh and New England, which I discussed above.  These are not necessarily the 5 best games, but the 5 games that I feel will be the most influential in shaping the various divisions:   

1) Chicago (5-7) at Washington (5-7) – An elimination game for two teams that were basically eliminated with losses last week.  With so many teams jumbled together teams are going to find it difficult to make up 2 game deficits when that includes jumping over 6 or 7 teams.  This is a tough spot for Washington.  They just had an emotional week with the death of Sean Taylor.  They lost an emotional game at home to Buffalo.  They attended a funeral on Monday and now have to get ready to play a Thursday night game.  Chicago has not been able to string together consecutive wins this season.  Since Week 4 Chicago has alternated wins and losses.  If the pattern holds true, this is their week to win.  I look for Chicago to win a low scoring game and keep their faint playoff hopes alive.  Winner:  Chicago

2) Dallas (11-1) at Detroit (6-6) – Detroit needs a win badly.  6-2 seems like a long time ago.  They have dropped 4 consecutive games.  They are allowing teams to gash them with the run and pass.  They are giving up a ton of points.  That isn’t a spot where you want to try to fix that against Dallas.  The game is at home and Detroit plays well at home.  Dallas is in a class of their own.  I look for Dallas to officially clinch the NFC East and moved one game closer to home field advantage through