I present to you my fifth regular season letter of the 2008 season.  I appreciate feedback of things that I failed to mention, but please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team.  I could do a newsletter for just one team.  Trying to mention every team or player in one newsletter would be impossibility.  I hereby present to you a recap of the opening weekend in the NFL.

Standings

AFC East                               NFC East

1. Buffalo (4-1)                    1. New York Giants (4-0)

2. New England (3-1)        2. Washington (4-1)

3. NY Jets (2-2)                   3. Dallas (4-1)

4. Miami (2-2)                      4. Philadelphia (2-3)

 

AFC South                            NFC South

1. Tennessee (5-0)            1. Carolina (4-1)

2. Indianapolis (2-2)          2. Tampa Bay (3-2)

3. Jacksonville (2-3)           3. Atlanta (3-2)

4. Houston (0-4)                  4. New Orleans (2-3)

 

AFC North                            NFC North

1.Pittsburgh (4-1)              1.Chicago (3-2)

2. Baltimore (2-2)              2. Green Bay (2-3)

3.Cleveland (1-3)              3. Minnesota (2-3)

4.Cincinnati (0-5)             4. Detroit (0-4)

 

AFC West                          NFC West

1. Denver (4-1)                 1. Arizona (3-2)

2. San Diego (2-3)           2. San Francisco (2-3)

3. Oakland (1-3)               3. Seattle (1-3)

4. Kansas City (1-4)         4. St Louis (0-4)

MVP of the Week: Some of the best performances this week were by players that played on losing teams.  Aaron Rodgers gave a very solid performance, despite the fact his shoulder was injured.  He had 313 yards passing, 3 touchdowns, and 1 pick.  His solid performance kept a Packer team whose defense is quickly headed on a downward spiral due to injuries and poor play.  While his interception was critical it was an otherwise great performance.  Same with Reggie Bush.  His team played horrible in the first half and trailed 20-10, but Bush had two returns for touchdowns that put the Saints up 27-20.  That has only happened 12 times in NFL history.  He almost broke a 3rd return, but was tripped up.   However, the Saints surrendered 10 points and missed a field goal to give the Vikings the lead.

The winning teams had some players do big things as well.  Clinton Portis and Roddy White had huge days.  Portis had 29 carries for 145 yards and 1 touchdown in the Redskins 23-17 win over the Redskins.  White had 8 catches for 132 yards and 1 touchdown in the Falcons 27-24 win at Green Bay. 

Loser of the Week: I would have to say the Seattle Seahawks organization.  The battle cry was that with Branch and Engram back the Hawks would get their swagger back.  Granted, the Giants weren’t going to make that easy.  The Hawks were the underdog.  But to lose 44-6 with Plaxico Burress suspended is inexcusable.  Sage Rosenfels also has to be a candidate for this award with his Superman dive that resulted in a fumble returned for a touchdown with just 3:36 left in the game.  That was the big turning point for the Colts who overcame a 27-10 4th quarter deficit and turned it into a 31-27 win.  Finally Adrien Peterson played on a team that won this week, but his weak effort cannot be ignored.  The Vikings will not make the playoffs if he continues to post 21 attempts for 32 yards and zero touchdowns.  He hasn’t had a 100-yard game since Week 2.
  
Game of the Week: There were quite a few exciting games this week.  I already touched on the Packers and Falcons and the Eagles and Redskins.    But the best game was probably the Jaguars hosting the Steelers on Sunday Night.  The Jaguars trailed the Steelers 20-14, when Marcedes Lewis scored a touchdown to put the Jags up 21-20.  The Steelers would take the lead for good 26-21 with 1:53 left in the 4th quarter on a 8 yard touchdown pass from Big Ben to Ward.  The two-point conversion would fail, but the 5-point margin would prove to be the difference in the game.  Another very close game between two former AFC Central Rivals that met in both the 2007 regular season and playoffs. 

The Bay of Pigs: When you get two defenses like the Ravens and Titans together you know there aren’t going to be a lot of points to begin with.  You also know the Ravens and Titans aren’t going to score a lot of points, even if they are playing bad defenses.  What we got was a 13-10, which took a turn for the Titans on an 11-yard pass from Collins to Crumpler with 1:56 left in the game. Good if you like defense, but not good for the offensive explosion. 

The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action): I got a few coaches to complain about.  Brad Childress may have won his game, but he made a very questionable decision.  I have never seen a coach that settles for the field goal with 1:30 left in the first half and deep in Saints territory.  That was amazing to me and speaks for itself.  When you have a team down 17-10, go for the two touchdown lead.  Yes they won, but those passed up points could have proven costly in a 30-27 win that was decided in the last :30 seconds of the game. 

Then you have Norv Turner.  It wasn’t a particular decision he made.  But, someone needs to explain to me why in a game that you lose only 17-10 that LT has only 12 carries for 35 yards and the Chargers only run the ball 19 times.  This was not a game that got away from the Chargers early and they had to play catch up.  This was a game the Chargers were in until the end.  They trailed 17-3 at the half and pulled to within 7 points with 3:13 left in the 3rd quarter.

In Norv’s defense the Dolphins had the ball 37:00 minutes in this game.  However, if the Chargers would have run the ball more they might have converted some first downs.  If you can’t run it to him throw it to him out of the backfield.  5 catches for 22 yards isn’t a lot either.

LT is too important of a player to see the ball only 17 times, especially against the Dolphins.  No matter how you look at it; a defense that let the Dolphins hold onto the ball for 37:00 minutes or an offense that gave LT the rock only 17 times, the Chargers blew it and are in a 2-3 hole for the second straight year.   Turner seems to be all too good at getting off to a slow start. 

Finally, there is Andy Reid.  For the second straight week he decided to not pass the ball at the goaline in the 4th quarter and for the second straight week the Eagles came up short.  I still don’t understand why they don’t let McNabb do something with his feet or arm down there.   You think you would want to win or lose with the face of your organization.  I’m not saying pass it 4 times, but to not put it in the air once is very strange.

Injury Report: The most significant injury of the week was Brian Westbrook breaking two ribs.  His status for next week is up in the air.

The quarterbacks had a rough week.  Trent Edwards had a nasty concussion and will hopefully be ready for the Bills next game in a couple weeks.  Brian Griese suffered a shoulder and elbow injury and his status is up in the air for next week.  Aaron Rodgers is probable for next week, even though he seemed to be in pain much of the game against the Falcons.  His shoulder will continue to be an issue, especially if he keeps getting hit.  Matt Schaub should be back in the lineup after a virus forced him to miss Sunday’s game.    

A couple big AFC West targets could be out.  Tony Scheffler is being looked at for a sports hernia and could miss a lot of time.  Chris Chambers is unlikely to face the Patriots with an ankle injury.

On defense, Aaron Schobel is nursing a sprained foot and hopes to be back after the bye week. 

Tracy Porter dislocated his wrist and is out indefinitely.  It is expected he will be placed on IR.  That is a blow to a Saints defense that has not played well this year.   

Overall Impressions of Week 1:

1) Two unbeaten’s left  – In addition to this newsletter I’m writing an additional article for the NFL Blogger Competition.  Therefore, I didn't do as many impressions for the week, as I wanted to concentrate on doing that piece well.  This week’s piece talks about the last two unbeaten teams in the NFL; the New York Giants and Tennessee Titans.  Click here if you want to check out that article. 

2)  People need to stop criticizing Dallas - Every week it seems to be a new problem.  Tony Romo isn’t doing this right.  TO is complaining about this.  Dallas isn’t tough enough.  They are underachieving.  They won’t win a playoff game for the first time since 1996. 

Trust me, I have no love for the Dallas Cowboys.  Having been a NFL fan since 1989 that has rooted for the Packers for a number of years I don’t exactly have a soft spot in my heart for the Cowboys.  But this team is 4-1 on the year.  In their last 22 games they are 17-5.  They had a 2 point loss to the Redskins this year, a 4 point loss to the Giants in the Divisional Round, a 21 point loss to the Redskins on the last game of the season, a 4 point loss to the Eagles, and a 21 point loss to the Patriots.  Two of those losses were to teams in last years Super Bowl and 4 of the 5 losses were 2007 playoff teams. 

I have been critical of the Cowboys for a lot of things.  I didn’t think Phillips handled the bye week very well heading into the Giants playoff game.  I didn’t think Romo did either.  TO is always good for a distraction.  They have taken some chances on some questionable players, such as Adam Jones and Tank Johnson.  That is all fair. 

What isn’t fair is saying that a 4-1 team has no backbone and isn’t tough enough to win the NFC East.  They won the NFC East last year.  They have been one of the top 5 regular season teams in football since Romo took over as the starter.  While it is frustrating that the Cowboys haven’t won a playoff game since 1996 most of these coaches and players are only responsible for the last playoff loss and in some cases the last two playoff games.  That’s it. 

To make a mountain out of TO wanting the ball more, the Redskins winning a 2 point game, or them not playing well in the 2nd half against the Bengals is trying to take anthills and make them in to mountains.  Dallas is a very good team that will win a lot of football games this season.  They should not be expected to go 15-1 or 16-0 and be criticized if they don’t win every game by 21 points.  If they lose in the playoffs again this year then the criticism will be warranted.  For now it is a lot to do about nothing.
     
3)  People need to keep criticizing Cincinnati - This team on the other hand is fair game.  At 0-5 they are among the worst teams in the NFL.  Only the Texans, Rams, and Lions have zero wins.  The Bengals can take solace in the fact that even though they are the only 5 loss team in the NFL they also have the best point differential among the winless teams at -41. 

This is not a case of me jumping on late.  I said the Bengals should have fired Lewis after last season.  I said this is one of the worst run organizations in football.  I said that even though they had Palmer, Ocho, and TJ they wouldn’t win more than 5 games.  I didn’t think Lewis could get them to play together.   I may have overestimated them. 

Lewis is not entirely responsible for the mess that is going on there.  Credit the Brown family for 20 years of below average football.  No one has been able to win their and Lewis did lead the team to a division title back in 2005.  I believe he can coach and he should get another chance as a NFL head coach.  While he made some mistakes in Cincinnati, he also did some good things to help turn this around.  People are actually surprised the Bengals aren’t competitive.  That didn’t happen for quite a while before he got there. 

That doesn’t change the fact of how terrible he has done since 2006.  The team doesn’t appear to play hard like they used to and they seem to be more worried about TD celebrations, name changes, contracts, parole hearings, and other things that are not factors that lead to winning football games.  Seeing the Bengals will not be getting a new owner anytime soon they need to get a new coach, clean house, and start over.      

4)  What you did last week doesn’t mean anything this week - We’ve all heard the conversation.  Team A beat Team B by 14 points.  Team B beat Team C by 21 points.  Therefore, Team A should beat Team C by a large margin.  If team C can’t beat team B, how are they going to compete with Team A? 

That theory has always been a disappointment.  If you are ever going to pick games, don’t do that.  Observe: 

(1-2) NY Jets host Arizona Cardinals (2-1) - Brett Favre throws 6 touchdown passes as the Jets win 56-35. 

(4-0) Bills visit Arizona Cardinals (2-2) - One week after surrendering 56 points and 6 touchdown passes to a struggling Jets team you would think the Cardinals would be dead in the desert to an unbeaten Buffalo squad that was playing better than anyone in the AFC East.  The Bills got taken for a 41-17 victory.

Here is how I see it.  The Jets beat the Cardinals by 21 points.  The Cardinals beat the Bills by 24 points.  I am seeing a 70-24 type of score when the Jets play the Bills later this season.  Call Vegas and put it in the books.    I’m taking the over.  

A Look Ahead:

Street Cred’s 2008 record: 48-25

1) Baltimore (2-2) at Indianapolis (2-2): This is a big early season game.  Both teams have teams in front of them in their division that are off to good starts.  The Titans are 5-0 and the Steelers are 4-1. Both teams have very difficult schedules and cannot afford to lose ground this early in the season.  I always love these great individual matchups.  Ray Lewis calling out defensive signals vs. Peyton Manning screaming out signals at the line.  The Colts have had the better of this matchup in recent years, including the 2006 Divisional Round Game and 2007 Regular Season Game.  I don’t look for a blowout, but I do look for Indy to win this game.  Winner: Indianapolis

2) Carolina (4-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2): Division games are always big and Carolina gets a chance to do two things.  They can take a two game lead over a tough division opponent and win a divisional game on the road.  I like how Carolina has rebounded from a couple average seasons and they should be in the thick of this divisional race.  Stewart and Williams are a great running back duo and Delhomme looks to be holding up.  These teams seem to go back and forth and you could go either way with this game.  I’m going to go with Carolina, mainly because I think they can establish the run in Tampa Bay and the Buccaneers have some injury issues with Griese at quarterback.  Garcia is a good player, but I think they have a lot of offensive issues at the moment to beat a team that is playing as well as Carolina.  Winner: Carolina  

3) Dallas (4-1) at Arizona (3-2): The Cardinals have been a difficult team to pick in recent weeks.  They have 31-0 and 41-17 wins over Miami and Buffalo.  However, they lost to the Jets 56-35.  To me this game is about the Dallas offense.  Arizona will move the ball through the air and I think Fitzgerald has a big day.  The problem is that I don’t see Arizona having enough answers for Romo, Barber, TO, and Witten.  I like both teams to put up points, but I like Dallas to score a bunch of them as they pull away in the 2nd half.  Winner: Dallas 

4) Green Bay (2-3) at Seattle (1-3): These are two teams that are in desperate need of a win. The Hawks only claim to fame this year is beating the Rams.  They have looked awful in their losses to Buffalo and New York.  Seattle plays much better at home than on the road.  They are 0-2 on the road and been outscored by 62 points.  At home they are 1-1 and their sole loss was in OT to the 49ers.  Neither team has been doing anything to warrant being picked to win a game.  I like Seattle, because Julius Jones is running well, the Packers can’t stop the run, and that should help Hasselbeck get back on track.  Rodgers and the offense will play well, but not well enough to pick up a road win.  Winner: Seattle 

5) New England (3-1) at San Diego (2-3): This was supposed to be an early season matchup that determined home field advantage in the AFC.  Brady injured his knee in Week 1, San Diego is off to their typical Turner slow start, and instead it is just another game on the schedule.  I don’t know why I’m picking them, but I like the Chargers.  I think the Miami game was a product of Miami rising to the moment and San Diego looking past the Patriots.  While New England bounced back nicely to beat the 49ers, I think LT could have a big game if Turner would ever give him the ball enough and if the defense could stop anyone. It’s a toss up to me and that means I pick the home team.  Winner: San Diego

and the rest…

6) Chicago (3-2) at Atlanta (3-2): Atlanta has been a nice surprise, but I don’t think Ryan and Turner will have big days against this defense.  If they can’t do that they can’t win.  Orton has been playing well as of late and I look for him to turn in another good performance.  Winner: Chicago 

7) Detroit (0-4) at Minnesota (2-3): There are certain teams that have been crossed off my list and I will no longer pick them to win games.  Detroit is one of them.  Peterson will go off in this game and take out the last 3 weeks of frustration against a very poor Detroit run defense.  Detroit loses big.  Winner: Minnesota 

8) Oakland (1-3) at New Orleans (2-3): Saints have started slow for the second straight year, but this is the type of team they need to come into the Big Easy this week.  I like the Saints to continue to make Al Davis miserable.  Winner: New Orleans 

9) Cincinnati (0-5) at New York Jets (2-2): I actually think Cincinnati will put up a few points in this game as the Jets have not been stopping the pass very well.  I also think Favre, Jones, Coles, and company have big games and the Jets win another high scoring game.  Winner: New York Jets 

10) St Louis (0-4) at Washington (4-1): St Louis is in my Detroit category.  They need to show me something before I pick them.  I wouldn’t dare pick them to win a road game, much less against a Washington team that has been clicking for the last month.  Portis has a huge day.  Winner: Washington 

11) Miami (2-2) at Houston (0-4): I like what Miami is doing, but I think its time for them to take a step back.  The Texans have been close the last couple weeks and I like them to win this game.  Slaton has been running well, Johnson finally scored a touchdown, and I have a feeling Houston pulls this out.  Winner: Houston 

12) Jacksonville (2-3) at Denver (4-1): This is a tough game to pick.  I like MJD and Taylor to have their way with a Denver defense that is just not getting the job done.  Granted they played better against Tampa Bay, but they need to show that week in and week out.  Jacksonville is the type of physical team that gives them problems.  Winner: Jacksonville 

13) Philadelphia (2-3) at San Francisco (2-3):  Both teams need this game.  The winner gets back to .500.  The loser is 2-4.  That said, Philly needs this game worse.  They have a 4-0 Giants team, 4-1 Dallas team, and 4-1 Redskins team above them in the division.  The can’t afford to fall 3 games back this early.  San Fran could go 8-8 and be in contention for this division.  Philadelphia has the better team and I look for them to rebound.  Expect a nice game out of the defense and McNabb to have a nice day as well.  Winner: Philadelphia 

14) New York Giants (4-0) at Cleveland (0-4) - I am looking for another 44-6 win by the Giants. Okay, maybe not that bad but I don’t think this game will be all that close.   Anderson will throw picks and the Giants running game will play big.  Winner: New York Giants
 
Byes: Buffalo, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee

That’s all for this week.  Enjoy the opening week of football and I look forward to reading your comments this week.

Sorry I was a little late with this posting. The Memorial Day Weekend Holiday set me a bit behind. This is my fourth of eight NFL division previews. While there are still a couple months until training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be a few minor changes after some June 1st cuts. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.

a) AFC East 

b) NFC East 

c) AFC South 

d) NFC South 

e) AFC North 

f) NFC North 

g) AFC West 

h) NFC West

The NFC South was arguably the weakest division in the NFL in 2007. Tampa Bay was the only divisional winner in 2007 not to win 10 games. Tampa Bay fans will point to the fact that they sat a lot of starters the last two weeks that resulted in their 9- 7 record. Still the Buccaneers were 5-1 in the division and 4-6 outside of it. The Panthers and Saints were 3-3 against the division and 4-6 outside of it. The Falcons were 3-7 outside the division. This is a division that really struggled to win games against teams in other divisions. No team is vastly superior to the other, with the exception of Atlanta. Even they could potentially finish out of the cellar if Ryan plays well as a rookie and things bounce their way. It is difficult to argue that this is anything other than a wide-open race in 2008.

Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the NFC South.

1) New Orleans Saints

07 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 379 (12th)

Points Allowed: 388 (25th)

Playoff Result: No Playoffs

2008 Strength of Schedule: 115-141 (.449) (27th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Saints have a terrific passing offense. The Saints ranked 3rd in passing yards as Drew Brees had 4,423 yards passing. The problem is that he had a 1 touchdown, 11 picks, and a 52.7 QB rating in his first 4 games. The Saints dug a 0-4 hole for themselves. In his last 12 games he had 28 touchdown passes, 7 interceptions, and a 103.1 QB rating. The problem is you don’t get to mulligan the first 4 games of the season. Despite going 7-3 in their next 10 games they lost their last 2 games to close the season and missed the playoffs.

The problem is they were so inconsistent during the season. They beat Jacksonville 41-24 and followed that up with a 37-29 loss to the Rams where they were routed for the first 3 quarters. This team has to work on their consistency. They can’t go in the tank for 4 games, win 4 in a row, and then lose to teams like the Rams. They have to bring it every Sunday.

There are a lot of good weapons in place. Brees is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. Colston is entering his 3rd season and looks primed to have a season similar to what Braylon Edwards did in 2007. Reggie Bush still has his faults, but when used properly is an explosive weapon. The Saints used him in too many reverses last season and gadget plays. They need to get back to the way they used him in 2006, which was as a spark plug, not the featured player in the offense. The injury to McAllister hurt them with that, but they were struggling to get Bush going while both were in the lineup. Stecker had a solid end to the season and gives them more weapons. Henderson, Meacham, and Johnson are all quality targets. The Saints have a stockpile of offensive weapons.

The Saints can put up points in bunches. If they can cut down on their turnovers and play with more consistency, they will score even more points and should win more games than in 2007.

Weaknesses: The Saints were the only team to attempt more than 600 passes in 2007 with 652. They ran the ball only 392 times, which ranked 7th worst in the league. That means they passed the ball 62.5 percent of the time and ran the ball only 37.5 percent of the time. The result was a rushing attack that ranked 28th in the NFL and a scoring offense that ranked 12th. With the problems this team had on defense, they weren’t able to overcome that hurdle.

For as good of a play caller as Payton was in 2006 he was equally bad in 2007, especially in the first 4 games of the season. The Saints have to find ways to run the ball, cut down on turnovers, and pass the ball down the field. They threw the ball way too much to Bush and not enough to the receivers down the field. If the defense stacks the line of scrimmage, you can’t throw the ball to Bush and expect him to run through and by everyone. He has not yet shown that type of ability.

The Saints concentrated on improving their defense this off-season. They traded for Jonathan Vilma. He is much more suited as the middle linebacker in a 4-3. The Jets going to a 3-4 really hurt his production. If he can return to his 2004 and 2005 form that will help the Saints defense considerably. They drafted Ellis in the first round out of USC to improve their defensive tackle position. They added Bobby McCray. Those two should help the Saints improve on a rush defense that ranked a respectable 13th in the NFL. It should also improve the pass rush. McCray will also give them insurance should Charles Grant have to miss time with his legal problems. He has been indicted by a Georgia grand jury with involuntary manslaughter.

They also improved their secondary. Randall #### is an upgrade. They also drafted Tracy Porter in the second round from Indiana. The Saints are hoping that with a couple additional pass rushers and a few more defensive backs they can improve on their 30th ranked defense. The Saints secondary is by no means perfect, but should not give up quite as many big plays as they did in 2007.

Prediction: I am still bitter at the New Orleans Saints for their 2007 season. It isn’t that I’m a Saints fan. My preseason prediction in 2007 was for the New England Patriots to beat the New Orleans Saints in the Super Bowl. The fact that they didn’t even qualify for the playoffs was annoying to say the least.

The most troubling thing was that they missed the playoffs because of poor play and inconsistency. It wasn’t as if Brees was lost for the season early and altered the dynamic of their season. They couldn’t run the ball and they couldn’t stop the pass. That keeps other offenses on the field to exploit the Saints weakness and the result was blowouts to good teams and a lot of losses to bad teams that were unexplainable.

I think they have improved this defense. I’m not saying it will be confused with the 2000 Ravens, but I think that Vilma, Ellis, McCray, ####, and Porter should help. I also think Payton is a good coach that had a bad year. He will reevaluate his play calling and try to go down the field more this season.

The schedule looks good for them. It is one of the easier ones in the NFL. The AFC West is going through a transition and the NFC North has some winnable games. Washington and San Fran are winnable games as well. They aren't in a AFC South type of division, so they should be okay there.

I went back and forth on whether to pick the Saints to win the NFC South for a second straight year. After much debate, I finally decided to give them another try. That doesn’t mean I think they are a Super Bowl team, but I do think that if they play to their talents, they have the best shot to win the NFC South.

New Orleans’ Record: 10-6 – NFC South Divisional Champion; NFC #3 Seed

2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

07 Record: 9-7

Points Scored: 334 (18th)

Points Allowed: 270 (3rd)

Playoff Result: Lost in the NFC Wildcard Round

2008 Strength of Schedule: 120-136 (.469) (20th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Buccaneers had one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2007. The Bucs finished first in the NFL in pass defense, allowing just 170.5 yards per game. They finished third in points allowed with 16.9. There only real weakness on defense was stopping the run, which ranked 17th.

They didn’t do well on defense by putting a lot of pressure on the QB. Their 33 sacks ranked tied for 16th in the NFL. They didn’t pick a lot of passes. Their 16 passes ranked tied for 17th in the NFL. Their completion percentage allowed of 60.6 ranked only 15th in the NFL. So how did this pass defense rank number 1 over the NY Giants, San Diego Chargers, and New England Patriots who all ranked much higher in sacks and turnovers?

The explanation is two-fold. 1) It helped that they did not play most of the top passing offenses. They drew Tennessee and Jacksonville with Garrard injured. They drew Atlanta and Carolina twice without Delhomme. They played the NFC West 49ers and Rams. Washington had passing issues. The best passing offenses they played in 2007 were Arizona, Detroit, Indy, Houston, New Orleans twice, and Seattle. Only Indy and Seattle made the playoffs, which Tampa Bay was blown out by in both games.

The second reason is that they were good at controlling the clock and playing field position. They ranked 11th in both rushing yards and rushing attempts. They tied for first in the NFL with interceptions thrown, tossing just 8. Jeff Garcia had only 4 interceptions on the season, 3 of them coming in the Jacksonville game. That combination resulted in an offense that did not put the Bucs defense in bad position on he field. Even though the Bucs didn’t force turnovers and sacks, the opposing offense had to go the distance.

That isn’t to say that the Bucs defense doesn’t have talent. Derrick Brooks is still a great linebacker. Gaines Adams had 6 sacks in his rookie season and should look to approach double-digit sacks in 2008. Ronde Barber is still a very respected cornerback. There are a lot of quality players on that defense.

The problem for the Bucs is that Brooks is 35 and Barber is 33. Those are two of their best players. The Bucs have done a good job of adding defensive talent. They drafted Aqib Talib to add youth to the secondary and replace Brian Kelly who left for Detroit in free agency. The Bucs must continue to get younger on defense as the last remaining pieces to their 2002 Super Bowl team are reaching the twilight of their brilliant careers.

Weaknesses: The offense was not very explosive in 2007. The Bucs were 20th in points scored with 20.9. They were 18th in yards, 16th in passing yards, and 11th in rushing yards. If Tampa Bay wants to take the next step, they have to do better on offense.

Jeff Garcia did make the Pro Bowl as an injury replacement. He is 38. The Bucs do not have a shortage of quarterbacks behind him. Simms, Griese, Gradkowski, and even the retired Jake Plummer are all property of Tampa Bay and with the exception of Plummer ready to play on a minutes notice. Galloway had his third straight 1,000-yard season in Tampa Bay, but turns 37 years old in November. Earnest Graham filled in well for the injured Cadillac Williams and had 898 rushing yards to go with his 10 rushing touchdowns. Warrick Dunn should do well in Gruden’s offense as a pass catcher, but he too is 33 years old.

There just isn’t a lot after that. Williams has been injured and disappointing since a strong rookie campaign in 2005. Ike Hilliard had 722 yards and 1 touchdown in 2007 as the number 2 receiver. Michael Clayton has fewer yards (1029) in his last 3 seasons than he did in his rookie season of 2004 with 1,193. He has been beyond disappointing. They just don’t have a lot of weapons after Galloway to throw down the field to. Tight End has been a nonexistent position. Alex Smith led the way with 385 yards and 3 touchdowns.

The Bucs tried to upgrade their receiver position with Dexter Jackson in the second round. He biggest contribution will probably come in the return game. The Bucs figure to have to win with strong defense, good running, short passes, and no turnovers in 2008. They just don't have the firepower to challenge the top offenses in the NFL.

Prediction: This is always a tough division to pick. The Falcons won the division in 04, the Panthers in 05, the Saints in 06, and the Buccaneers in 07. It seems like any team could win this division year in and year out and the Bucs have the defense to compete.

I like the Bucs defense, but I still don’t understand how they won the division over the Saints in 2007. While Garcia was a nice addition and defense does go along way to helping a team win games, the Saints passing game was vastly superior and should have been enough to carry them, even with their 0-4 start. Had Payton not called that gadget play against the Bucs late in the 4th quarter that gave Tampa Bay new life, New Orleans would have tied Tampa Bay for the division lead in Week 13 and Tampa Bay would probably not have been able to rest everyone to close the season. Things could have turned out much different.

This team reminds me of Baltimore in 2006. The individual and team statistics do not scream division winner, but at the end of the year they are on top. Coaching was as much the difference in 2007 in the NFC South as anything. Jon Gruden is by far the best coach in that division.

I think Garcia can still lead this offense and they have intriguing backups should he go down. Detroit, Chicago, Oakland, Kansas City, and Denver all offer potential for wins. Dallas, Seattle, Minnesota, Green Bay, and San Diego could all be very tough.

I just think their key defenders are a year older, the offense doesn’t look much better, and the schedule is tougher. I know they could have finished above 9-7 had they played all their players the last couple weeks, but I just don’t see this team repeating in the division. I think they finish near .500, make things interesting in the division, and compete with Carolina for 2nd place in this always-volatile division.

Tampa Bay’s Record: 8–8 NFC South 2nd Place; No Playoffs

3) Carolina Panthers

07 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 267 (26th)

Points Allowed: 349 (15th)

Playoff Result: No Playoffs

2008 Strength of Schedule: 119-137 (.465) (22nd (t) in NFL)

Strengths: Given the offense the Panthers played with in 2007, the defense did very well to finish 15th in points allowed. While the Panthers defense was weaker than previous seasons, they still finished in the middle of the pack in the NFL.

The Panthers added some nice talent in the draft. Dan Conner is a good linebacker from a solid linebacker program in Penn State. He should contribute. Charles Godfrey is a defensive back that could see the field immediately.

The Panthers secondary still has solid corners. Gamble and Lucas are excellent in coverage. They have to improve on their 31st ranked pass rush, which generated 23 sacks if they want to get the full production out of those guys. They can’t be effective if the quarterback has all day to throw the ball.

On offense, Steve Smith is still a top-flight wide receiver. DJ Hackett was a good addition. Muhsin Muhammad is well past his prime, but is familiar with Carolina and can help as a possession wide receiver. Dwayne Jarrett needs to step up in his second year. He had just 6 catches for 73 yards in his rookie campaign. Jeff King has the potential to put up good numbers at the tight end position. A healthy Jake Delhomme would go along way to helping all of these players put up better numbers in 2008.

Weaknesses: The Panthers had a very strange year in 2007. They started off 4-2. Steve Smith is their only really scary weapon. He had 35 catches for 496 yards and 6 touchdowns in those 6 games. That would have translated to 93 catches for 1,322 yards and 16 touchdowns for the season.

Then Jake Delhomme was injured in his 3rd game of the season and was lost for the year. Smith had some good games with Tesaverde, but really struggled to get even a few catches with Carr and Moore. He finished with just 52 catches for 506 yards and 1 touchdown in his last 10 games. As a result, the offense scored only 14.4 points over the final 10 games. The result was a 3-7 finish to the season.

The defense, which had been a stable of this team, did not perform very well in 2007. They finished only 15th in the league in scoring defense. That was tied for their worst season since John Fox took over in 2002. A lot of that had to do with the offense not being able to give them a lead or keep them in good field position. Still, 3-time Pro Bowl and 2-time NFL All-Pro first team defensive end Julius Peppers has to have more than 2.5 sacks. He was awful in 2007. It was his only season other than 2003 where he failed to register double digit sacks. That was a major reason why the Panthers finished so low in the sack department. He is moving to right defensive end with the retirement of Mike Rucker.

Foster and Williams teamed up to be the 14th best rushing attack in 2007. Foster is gone to San Fran and Williams has yet to show he can be an every down back. That factored into the Panthers selecting Jonathan Stewart with the 13th pick. If he can be healthy by the start of the season the Panthers should be more effective running the ball. The Panthers also added massive tackle Jeff Oath to upgrade the run blocking and pass protection from the tackle spot. Jordan Gross is one of the best in the business. If those two can excel in 2008, that will help the entire offense.

Prediction: The whole key to the season is whether or not Mr. Delhomme can stay healthy and whether Peppers can return to 10 plus sack form. Peppers should have a better year. He is not past his prime and has a lot of years left.

While Delhomme is not among the elite quarterbacks in the league he has proven he can lead this team to victory. He can throw the ball downfield to Steve Smith and manage the offense. He played very well in the Super Bowl back in 2003 and led the Panthers to a NFC Championship appearance in 2005. The only question with him has been consistency and interceptions, until health crept into the picture the last 2 seasons.

Without him, Matt Moore is the new starter and as we saw last year, that isn’t really a good thing. In his 3 starts the Panthers went 2-1, but that 1 win was against the resting Buccaneers to close the season. In the other two starts the Panthers scored 13 points in each contest. He just doesn’t have the arm to go downfield on a regular basis.

While Delhomme was very healthy from 2003 to 2005, he just hasn’t been the last 2 seasons. He missed 3 starts in 2006 and 13 last year. He had season ending surgery to his elbow on his throwing arm and is still not throwing at full strength. That is not what you want from your starter in June.

The Panthers made some upgrades at wide receiver, running back, and on defense in the draft. They should be improved. The Saints are a puzzling team and the Buccaneers have their share of issues. I would not be shocked if the Panthers competed for the division.

I considered picking them for the top spot, but I just am not confident that Delhomme will be healthy or effective the entire season and I don’t think a team can win consistently in the NFL with Moore starting games. I don’t pick teams to do well in June that are going through quarterback health questions. See the 2007 Eagles and 2006 Dolphins for reasons why I don’t do that. I look for more of the same for the Panthers in 2008 as they try to make the playoffs and save John Fox’s job. The once hot young coach’s hot seat will get even hotter if the Panthers miss the playoffs.

Carolina’s Record: 7-9 – NFC South 3rd Place; No Playoffs

4) Atlanta Falcons

07 Record: 4-12

Points Scored: 259 (29th)

Points Allowed: 414 (29th)

Playoff Result: No Playoffs

2008 Strength of Schedule: 120-136 (.469) (20th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Falcons are a team that is in complete rebuilding mode. When Michael Vick pleaded guilty to federal dog fighting charges the face of their franchise was stripped from them. Bobby Petrino was in his first year coaching and was not able to handle the transition from the college game to the pro game with that bombshell. The result was a 3-10 record before he resigned. Former Jacksonville defensive coordinator Mike Smith has been entrusted to get this franchise back on track.

The Falcons had a number of good parts last season. Roddy White broke out in his 3rd season for 83 catches, 1,202 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Considering his quarterback cast that was a very productive year. Jerious Norwood looked impressive at times and has a lot of big play potential. He had 103 carries for 603 yards and 1 rushing touchdown, while adding 277 receiving yards. Even though Warrick Dunn has returned to Tampa Bay, Norwood will not be the number one guy. Michael Turner was the prized free agent the Falcons signed in free agency. After backing up LT for 4 seasons it is his time to be the number one guy. The two will form a very good running back duo.

The defense was not very good in 2007, but a few players did stand out. John Abraham was able to tally 10 sacks. Keith Brooking is still a very underappreciated linebacker. Chris Houston is a young cornerback that the Falcons hope will develop into a starter now that Hall is a Raider.

Jason Elam was a big signing on special teams. Morton Anderson was reliable, but not from long range. Elam will give them better production on long field goals and the kickoff game. He is a clutch kicker with the game on the line and could help the Falcons steal a couple close games.

Weaknesses: The Falcons really bottomed out last season. They ranked 29th in both scoring offense and defense. They were 23rd in offensive yards gained and 29th in defensive yards allowed. While they had some players that gave good individual contributions, it didn’t result in a good showing for the team.

I really believe that Bobby Petrino was a large part of the problem. He did not connect well with his players and obviously did not want to be there. His fights with Hall were well documented. I thought his exit to Arkansas the night after a tough Monday Night loss was gutless. Mike Smith should be a much better hire and is much more disciplined. He should be able to take this team forward.

Matt Ryan was a huge draft pick. He gives the Falcon fans something to hope for. Michael Vick did give the Falcons a lot of good years and his legal problems should not diminish that. However, the Falcons have to move on and Matt Ryan has the potential to be the franchise quarterback the Falcons need now more than ever.

It will be interesting to see if they throw him in the fire now or wait until 2009. My guess is that Redman or Harrington could start the season and that by the middle of the year Ryan will be the number one guy. However, I could see where the Falcons throw the youngster into the fire on day one. Ryan is signed so he will be at training camp on day one. This won't be a Russell situation from last year where the Raiders had not choice but to sit the September arrival most of the season. How Ryan does in training camp will go a long way to determining his opening day status. Either way, it is going to hamper the Falcons from joining the top passing offenses in 2008. This is a rebuilding year and the Falcons must accept that.

The Falcons improved their offensive line by drafting Sam Baker in the first round. He should help the Falcons continue to upgrade the offensive line. They also added Harry Douglas to give their QBs another target on offense.

On defense they added Curtis Lofton to upgrade their linebacker core. In the secondary they added Chevis Jaskson and Thomas DeCoud. The Falcons are trying to retool a defense that had ranked in the middle of the NFL over the 3 seasons prior to 2007. The first round was geared to offense, with some of their other picks going to upgrade the defense.

Prediction: I like what the Falcons did this off-season. I thought Ryan was a solid pick. I like the Turner signing. I like that they brought in Elam. The division is not very strong and they have an easy schedule based on last year’s results. That said it is very hard to win in this league with a rookie quarterback. Even if Harrington or Redman starts the season neither has proven they can win week in and week out in the NFL.

The key for the Falcons will be a fast start. They get Detroit, Tampa, Kansas City, and Carolina to open the season. The rest of the schedule is a mix of easier teams, like Oakland and tougher teams like Green Bay and Philadelphia. They have some tough games at the end of November and beginning of December, which include San Diego, at New Orleans, Tampa, and at Minnesota.

All in all, I look for the Falcons to be a more competitive team and not be outscored by over 9 points per game. That probably won't show much in the win column, but it will make for better football in Atlanta. However, I don’t see where they will get much more than 5 wins in 2008. That doesn’t mean they aren’t on the right track. It means it takes time to rebuild a franchise. If they can develop their young talent and have another good off-season in 2009 they may be able to start thinking about competing for a playoff spot.

Atlanta’s Record: 5-11 – NFC South 4th Place; No Playoffs

That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008.  I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July.  I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008.  Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews.  You have made writing these a lot of fun.

As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.

It’s always fun to pick the winners and losers of the NFL draft just a day after the draft. This is an excerpt from an April 15, 1998 Sports Illustrated Article Where will Leaf fall? “At 6-foot-5, Leaf has the size NFL teams are looking for. His arm strength is considered better than Manning's and he threw a Pac-10 record 33 touchdowns last season while playing in the same sophisticated Washington State offense that primed Drew Bledsoe for NFL success.”

‘He gets rid of the ball quickly and he just kind of flicks it,’ said Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim Mora. ‘I mean it's not like its effortless motion. When he throws the ball it's just BOOM it goes through the air at a pretty good pace -- that impresses me.”

On the other hand that one NFL scout said this about Tom Brady prior to the 2000 draft, “Poor build, very skinny and narrow, lacks mobility and the ability to avoid the rush, lacks a really strong arm."

We really won’t know who hit home runs and who struck out until 3-5 years down the road.  Every team looks to be better with their first round and second round picks.  Most will not live up to expectations.  Most late round picks are going to be an after thought when grading these teams.  Some will bail out teams for early round mistakes. 

We can speculate that this team reached or that team didn’t get the player they needed.  None of that will come to fruition until we see how these players perform in NFL action.  It doesn’t matter if the player a GM reached for makes the Hall of Fame or the player that was an excellent value becomes a bust.  Even if they do have good seasons like Michael Vick, Chris Henry, or Pacman Jones, off the field incidents can derail certain players.  It is an inexact science and only a few players from this weekends draft will have careers longer than 3-5 seasons in the NFL.

Nevertheless, what fun is it to ignore grading the draft until 5 years from now?  Here would be my top 5 questions that emerged from the draft weekend and my 5 Winners and 5 Losers.  Keep in mind that with 32 NFL teams there is no way I could mention every team or player.  If I didn’t mention your favorite team or player talk about it in the comments section and I will try to address it.

Grading my Mock Draft – I didn’t do Mock Draft 8.0, so keep that in mind when evaluating my Mock Draft.  I did one mock draft that was published on March 31, 2008.  I am giving myself ½ point each for having both Longs going to Miami and St Louis, just mixing up the first names.  I got Ryan, Ellis, and Talib going to the right teams, which was not super.  However, I had 8 of the 10 players going correctly in the top 10, with Clady going number 12 instead of number 5.  22 of my 31 players in the mock were selected in the first round.

The only players I put in the first round that didn’t get selected on the first day were Reggie Smith and Mario Manningham, who I admitted at the time was slipping on many draft boards and that I wouldn’t be surprised in a month if he wasn’t there.  Both were selected in the 3rd round.

The position I struck out on was wide receiver.  I thought Jackson, Kelly, and Sweed would all go first round.  Not only did they fail to go first round; but also 6 receivers went before them in the 2nd round.   That was brutal. 

Overall, considering I never updated the mock draft for the month before the draft and it didn’t take into account trades, bad pro day workouts, and other issues I would give myself a B.  By no means excellent, but pretty good considering it was done a month before the NFL draft and was significantly altered by the Allen trade and the record amount of trades overall in the draft.

5 questions

1) Did Kansas City do the right thing in trading Jared Allen for a first round, two third round, and a sixth round pick? – I think the Chiefs got this right.  Allen has been disgruntled in Kansas City the last few seasons.  Even though he had 15.5 sacks despite missing a couple games and is only 26 years old, the fact is the Chiefs lost 12 games in 2007.  He wasn’t going to get the Chiefs to the mountaintop by himself.  They needed to rebuild both sides of the ball.  He was the player that could most help them do that.  By getting 4 picks they were able to add a potential Pro Bowl defensive tackle, offensive tackle, and cornerback and secure a lot of depth at other positions.

The gamble for Kansas City is that with Allen you know what you are getting.  With these guys you don’t.  The draft can be very unforgiving.  Look at what happened to Minnesota when they traded Randy Moss.  They struck out with Williamson and Harris while losing a Hall of Fame wide receiver. 

However, I think the Chiefs made some safe picks and I think the trade has the potential to help both teams.  The Vikings needed someone to pressure the ball and they couldn’t have drafted a player better than Allen.  I criticized the Vikings in the off-season for not being more assertive with a division left for the taking when #4 retired.  This was a good gamble.  The Chiefs needed to rebuild and the 5th pick in the draft wasn’t going to do that on its own.  This may end up going down as a win-win trade.

2) Did the Falcons make the right move in drafting potential franchise quarterback Matt Ryan? – While I liked Ryan, I don’t think he comes to the NFL with the optimism of a Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer.  Taking a QB third in the draft is a huge investment and one a team can’t afford to get wrong. 

Steve Young brought up an excellent point in analyzing this pick.  If the Falcons didn’t add a franchise quarterback in this draft, the pressure would mount to give Vick a second chance once he is released from Federal prison if Harrington and Redman were the only quarterbacks on their roster.

This pick not only allows the Falcons to add a player they should be able to build around, but it probably ends that controversy.  It is hard to see the Michael Vick story having any more chapters in Atlanta.  It is important for the Falcons to put that behind them.  They couldn’t afford to go into 2009 and 2010 with that cloud hanging over their head.

With Michael Turner signed as a free agent and Roddy White emerging as a promising receiver, the Falcons appear to be headed toward competitiveness by 2009 if they can continue to develop and add players.  While there were other players that could help them more this year, if they don’t pick Ryan, I don’t think they would have reason to be as optimistic.

3) Did the Dolphins select the right Long?  Absolutely.  Parcells showed his brilliance in this pick and why I believe he will turn the Dolphins around sooner rather than later.  Both players were safe picks.  I thought they would be the first two picks in the draft.  Had the Dolphins selected Chris Long first, they wouldn’t have needed to pick their second round pick, Phillip Merling.  Furthermore, I don’t think there was an offensive tackle at that pick that had as much upside as Merling.  There were 7 offensive tackles and a guard that will move to tackle in the first round.  There were only 4 defensive ends taken in the draft, 3 of which went in the top 10. 

By taking Long they were able to add two solid prospects to their offensive and defensive lines instead of one.  If both players pan out it will be a monumental decision in the rebuilding of the Miami Dolphins.

4) Did the Ravens finally draft their franchise quarterback in Joe Flacco? – I’m not so sure.  This could be an example of a team falling in love with the arm and combine and not looking at the overall product.  The kid played at Delaware, which isn’t exactly major college competition.  There are plenty of starting quarterbacks that have faired well from smaller schools. Favre played at Southern Mississippi.  Tony Romo played at Eastern Illinois.  The problem is that by selecting Flacco in the first round, the Ravens are going to have to pay a guy first round money whose resume is built playing at a small school.   The Cowboys on the other hand got to see Romo develop and play well before they coughed up the farm to keep him.  Drafting a Delaware QB in the first round is a big gamble in the NFL.

The Ravens did better than the Bears who didn’t even draft a quarterback or the Vikings who came away with an inferior prospect in John David Booty.  While Flacco is an interesting prospect, he was hardly the 18th best player in this draft.  I don’t know if they would have been that worse off selecting the best player and taking either Braum or Henne in the second round.  If Flacco becomes the Pro Bowl quarterback the Ravens never have had it was worth the gamble.  If he doesn’t it will hurt the Ravens both in the salary cap ramifications and the talent department.  At least they got several picks from the Jaguars to add other talent in the third round.  Fabian Washington was an interesting trade adding depth at cornerback.  If Flacco is a bust, they had a lot of picks on day 2 that may compensate for that.

5) What should be made of the Green Bay Packers selecting Brian Brohm in the 2nd round? – The Packers now have a full-blown quarterback controversy.  Aaron Rodgers is going to get it from all ends now.  He has a 38-year-old quarterback that keeps saying he would be tempted to comeback if he gets hurt.  Now he has a rookie quarterback that put up big college numbers that will be looking to take his job if he doesn’t do well.

Regardless, the Packers did the smart thing.  If Aaron Rodgers can’t live with Brohm being drafted in the 2nd round, he isn’t going to have the mental toughness to replace a NFL legend.  The NFL is a pressure packed league, so Rodgers better get used to it sooner rather than later.  Signing a washed up player (Culpepper) or a never was (Ferrotte) to make Rodgers feel better about himself was not the answer. 

Brohm fills two needs.  First, The Packers needed a backup quarterback and Brohm was the best option the Packers had available to them.  From a GM’s perspective of putting together the best roster possible, it makes sense.  Second, Aaron Rodgers has shown injury concerns as the backup for the most durable quarterback in NFL history.  That is not a good sign. 

The Packers have the youngest team in the NFL and are protecting themselves by taking a player with a lot of upside in case Rodgers doesn’t pan out.  If Rodgers does work out, the Packers may very well be able to get a first round pick for Brohm if he shows well in preseason games.  If Rodgers doesn’t work out they have another viable option for the future.  The value was good and the pick made sense.  Hopefully Rodgers will have the mental strength to not worry about things he can’t control and play good football in 2008.

5 Winners – Here are the teams that I thought were the class of the 2008 NFL draft.

1) Kansas City Chiefs – One reason they shot to the front of the draft is because they traded their best defender in Jared Allen.  If the Patriots had traded Tom Brady or the Colts traded Peyton Manning they could have shot to the front of this list too.  That wouldn’t necessarily make them a better team.  While the Chiefs added a lot of talent in the draft, they gave up their best defender to do it.

Still, I think that was a trade that really helped both teams.  The Vikings got the pass rusher they have coveted all off-season.  It was better to make that move than sign Justin Smith.  At 26 years old Allen should have a lot of good years in the NFL and gives the Vikings a very scary defensive line.  You have to give something to get something and while the Vikings gave up a lot of picks it has the potential to pay huge dividends. 

The trade also really helped the Chiefs, because it gave them an extra first round pick, two third round picks, and a sixth round pick.  It gave them the flexibility to rebuild this team by getting rid of a disgruntled player. 

The Chiefs used their 5th pick to get Glen Dorsey, a player that was rated as the best defensive tackle in the draft.  While they could have used defensive end or offensive tackle help, he was the best player on the board.  He should substantially upgrade their defensive line.  Then they drafted Branden Albert and upgraded their offensive line that is in dramatic need of improvement.  Finally, they drafted Brandon Flowers who a lot of people thought might sneak into the first round.  He should help improve the secondary. 

Furthermore, they had 9 picks on day 2.  Jamal Charles could be a quality running back.  Brad Cottam could provide another weapon a tight end. DaJuan Morgan has intrigue at defensive back. While it is obvious that no front office is going to go mistake free in the draft, Kansas City needed to rebuild its team in this draft.   I think they got a lot of good players at the top of the draft and may have found some potential steals.

The Chiefs gambled by sending their best defender to Minnesota.  If they were able to draft 2 Pro Bowlers, 2 starters, 2 solid contributors, and 6 busts in this draft they will have hit a home run and gone a long way to improving their chances to compete down the road.  This Kansas City draft class has the potential to be the best of all the 2008 draft classes.

2) Washington Redskins – The Redskins were terrible at wide receiver last year.  Their receivers combined for just 7 touchdowns in 2007.  Their first touchdown by a wide receiver in 2007 was by James Thrash in Week 10.   Instead of trying to trade a bunch of picks to another team to move up or get a Chad Johnson and the quick fix, the Redskins traded down.  They acquired Devin Thomas from Michigan State.  He is a bigger receiver.  Then they added Fred Davis who is an excellent receiving tight end.  Finally, they added Malcom Kelly.  Many thought he would be a first round until his bad workout.  Regardless, he is a bigger wide receiver than was good value in the second round.

On the second day they added a lot of depth.  Colt Brennan is a quarterback they can bring along slowly.  Chad Rinehart could make contributions to their line at offensive tackle.  They also upgraded at punter by drafting Durant Brooks, the Ray Guy award winner.  This was a major need as well. 

The Redskins put Jason Campbell in a great position.  Joe Gibbs liked the Smurfs, which hurt the Redskins in the redzone.  The Redskins added bigger targets so that he has more options in the redzone.  When you add these skill position players to Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, and Antwaan Randle-El; the Redskins should be more productive in the redzone at the receiver spot. 

Again, while history shows that all 3 players will probably not work out, the Redskins are not going to be on the hook for large salaries with all these players coming in the second round.  They did the best job they could to add big playmakers to their offense.  If one can be a Pro Bowler and the other a solid playmaker the Redskins will be very pumped about this draft.

3) Miami Dolphins – Having a 1-15 record puts a GM in position to hit the homerun of the draft.  The Dolphins did not disappoint. The Dolphins drafted the top offensive line prospect in the draft with Jake Long.  Furthermore, they signed him prior to the draft so they don’t have to worry about a holdout like the Raiders had with Russell in 2007.  Then on the Friday before the draft they acquired inside linebacker Akin Ayodele and tight end Anthony Fasano from the Dallas Cowboys for a fourth-round draft pick, the 100th pick overall pick.  That was good value.

In the second round they acquired Phillip Merling who some experts projected as a middle to late first round pick.  He should help on their defensive line.  Then at the end of the first round they drafted Chad Henne as a potential quarterback of the future.

The Dolphins had good picks and got great value for those picks.  On the second day the continued to add guards, defensive lineman, and a couple running backs.  Shawn Murphy is an interesting selection in the 4th round.  He was a good guard at Utah State and will have to prove he is able to make the jump from small school to the pro level.

While the Dolphins are probably not going to be a playoff contender in 2008 because of this draft, it is hard to fix 1-15 in one year.  They are starting to add pieces to this puzzle.  The Dolphins finally have solid leadership in the front office and it showed this weekend.

4) Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers showed why they are consistently one of the better teams in the NFL.  Many people thought they would upgrade their secondary or their defensive line.  If they were going to upgrade on offense it surely would be guard. 

Instead of reaching for players they drafted the best available players and it could really pay off.  Rashard Mendenhall was a steal at the 23rd pick and gives them some insurance should Willie Parker not return from knee surgery at full strength.  If Parker does return at 100% the rookie is a great compliment.  Then they granted Big Ben’s wish to upgrade the receiver spot with a taller receiver and added 6’3” plus receiver Limas Sweed in the second round.  Many people thought he would be one of the first two receivers taken in the entire draft.  I saw mock drafts that had him going to Buffalo with the 11th pick

This improvement in the skill positions should really help their squad.  In the second day they added linebacker and secondary depth, which was also a goal of this draft.  They also added Dennis Dixon, who could be a good value if he can recover from knee surgery.  He may move to receiver. 

They gave Big Ben a $100 million dollar contract and then gave him skill players to put him in the best possible situation to continue his solid development.  Adding these skill position players was a major positive for the Steel City.

5) Dallas Cowboys – I like the Felix Jones pick, but I think they should have gone with Rashard Mendenhall at that pick.  I had him rated slightly higher than Jones.  However, Jones is an excellent compliment with his pure speed to the power of Marion Barber.  The pick makes sense in that respect.

Then the Cowboys added Mike Jenkins, whom I thought was the best cornerback prospect in the draft. I thought the Patriots would entertain him at the seventh pick.  That gives them some options if Pacman Jones is not reinstated in time for the regular season. If Jones does work out, they couldn’t have found that type of talent with the 4th round pick they gave up.  Finally, the Cowboys added a potential weapon at the 2nd tight end spot in Martellus Bennett. 

The second day produced only 3 picks and no major names.  The Cowboys goal was to hit a home run and add Pro Bowl talent to their roster in the first and second round.  They have excellent potential to do that.  Those rookies will be in an excellent position to succeed seeing they are going to a team that finished 13-3.  With a third round pick, fourth round, and a sixth round pick the Cowboys have the potential to add more depth and hit a home run in this draft.

5 Losers – Here are the 5 teams that have to be scratching their heads after this draft.

1) Tennessee Titans – Evidently, the Titans are not interested in giving Vince Young anything that resembles a NFL wide receiver.  I think this is a team that got caught up in the 4.24 40-yard time and reached for a player at a position they didn’t need to upgrade.  Chris Johnson is a fine prospect, but they have used second round picks on Henry and White in the last couple drafts to bolster the running game.  White had 1,110 yards and 7 touchdowns, so it wasn’t like they were strapped at that position.

Justin Gage was their leading receiver with 750 yards.  They have to find a way to upgrade that position.  Then they drafted a defensive end in Jason Jones out of Eastern Michigan.  While he may be a good player, he doesn’t play wide receiver.  The only offensive players they selected in the draft were Chris Johnson, Craig Stevens who plays tight end, and Lavelle Hawkins who was the number 2 receiver for California.  I’m not sure if that is what Vince Young had in mind.  William Hayes in the 4th round seemed like a huge reach seeing Mel Kiper, Jr. was the only person at the draft that had even researched the guy.  That was widely considered a head-scratching pick.

Giving Vince Young some toys had to be a major goal of this draft.  The Redskins gave Jason Campbell three toys.  Donovan McNabb got DeShaun Jackson.  Vince Young got a speed project at running back and a couple middle round picks.  I don’t see how the Titans are putting themselves in position to have Vince Young become the player they want him to be. 

I was critical of the Titans for doing this in 2007 and they made the playoffs.  I still think to compete in the AFC playoffs, you need to score a lot of points.  The Patriots and Colts speak for themselves.  The Chargers have a lot of weapons.  Jacksonville and Pittsburgh understand that and added skill position players in free agency and the draft to keep pace.  Cleveland is getting stronger and missed out by a tie last year. 

Vince Young needs someone to throw the ball two and it is doubtful they found what they needed in the second day of the draft.  In the ever-competitive AFC South it is imperative to keep making strides forward if the Titans want to return to the playoffs in 2008.

2) Detroit Lions – Why are the Lions bad year in and year out.  It is because they underachieve in the draft. Gosder Cherilus has the potential to be a solid starter.  However, most teams had Jeff Otah as a much higher prospect.  I thought this was a substantial reach.  Furthermore, last I checked the Lions only running back with substantial NFL experience on their roster was Tatum Bell.  That isn’t exactly an ideal player to have as your featured running back. Rashard Mendenhall would have been a great value. 

Then instead of drafting Ray Rice or one of the good second round prospects at running back, they added Jordon Dizon, who was described by ESPN Scout’s Inc., “Looking at Dizon in street clothes or watching him run you wouldn't think he could be an NFL linebacker; he lacks ideal size, doesn't have great range and can be a liability in man coverage. But Dizon is a classic overachiever.” 

I’m not sure if that is what I am looking for in the second round.  The Lions finally got around to drafting a running back in the third round with Central Florida’s Kevin Smith.  That made up for some of the sins they committed in the first two rounds. Andre Fluellen and Cliff Avril could potentially help on the defensive line. 

I thought the Lions needed to come away with an impact running back.  While Smith may eventually do that, I thought it was a mistake to pass on the much higher prospect.    This draft had a lot of question marks, which is nothing new for the Motor City. 

3) St Louis Rams – When a team has the second pick in the draft they have to do better with their high picks in later rounds.  Chris Long should be a solid pass rusher for years to come and was the correct pick in my opinion.  But what were the Rams doing selecting Donnie Avery with the thirty-third pick overall in the second round? 

Avery does have speed, but is somewhat undersized.  A lot of the reports I have been reading say that he is not a strong route runner.  I thought there were a lot of other options that would have been better at this point.  The Rams squandered a chance to hit a homerun in the draft by reaching for a player that I don’t necessarily think will end up being an impact player.

Then they drafted Justin King on day two.  He is a corner with great skills that was burned on a regular basis and should have gone back to school. Keenan Burton could be a sleeper at wide receiver.  All in all I thought the Rams had a great first pick and a lot of questions after that.  With the 2nd pick in the draft, you certainly hope for more players that can make an immediate impact.

4) Cincinnati Bengals – Keith Rivers was a good pick, but nothing spectacular at number 9.  I thought he would slip later into the first round.  But what was the Bengals thinking by drafting Jerome Simpson in the second round before Limas Sweed, DeSean Jackson and Malcolm Kelly?

The fact is that Simpson is coming into a great situation and may put up solid numbers in his first year, because of the QB situation he is coming into.  Not many rookie receivers get to play with a quarterback as polished as Palmer and with receivers like Chad and TJ.  It is a great situation for this youngster, but I’m not sure it was the best value at that spot in the draft.

Furthermore, I would have tried to work something out with the Redskins in regards to Chad Johnson.  While I gave the Redskins credit for trading down, I think they stumbled into that.  Snyder would have given away the farm had he had someone that would have obliged him.

Chad Johnson doesn’t want to be there and they had a chance to add high draft picks for him.  Now that soap opera will hang over Cincy until training camp and into the beginning of the regular season.  While Simpson may be ready to contribute as a number 3 guy in his rookie year, I’m not so sure about a number 2. 

The Bengals did okay in the later rounds.  Andre Caldwell was an interesting choice at wide receiver.  If he can stay healthy he could contribute.  Given the Bengals character concerns, Jason Shirley was a bit of a surprise.  He was suspended from the team for driving under the influence.  At least he doesn’t have Chris Henry to party with when he arrives for camp. 

While I think the later picks were slightly better than the Rams later picks, I think the success of this draft is too dependent on Rivers panning out.  If he becomes a Pro Bowl player it will be remembered as a successful draft.  I don’t think they did much after that.  I didn’t think they got the #### they needed out of their first two picks, which are the players they need to contribute in 2008.  Given the upgrades the Browns made in free agency and the Steelers made in the draft, it seems hard to see the Bengals moving back toward the top of the division in 2008.

5) New England Patriots – I guess you aren’t supposed to question the organization that does well in the draft year in and year out?  I was disappointed that a lot of experts didn’t go after the Patriots.  I think that is because of their proven track record in the draft. 

I liked obtaining the extra pick in the 3rd round by moving just 3 spots down in the trade with New Orleans.  But, I don’t think they did what they needed to in this draft. Jerod Mayo was a fine player for Tennessee, but a lot of people consider him a work in progress.  He is a middle linebacker than can play the outside, which is good in the 3-4 system that New England runs.

I was 8-10 with players being selected in the top 10.  Ryan Clady went at number 12, something I couldn’t have envisioned at the time, because I didn’t know the Chiefs would trade Allen when I did the mock draft.  Mayo I didn’t even have in the first round.  I thought he would be an early second round pick that might sneak into the end of the first round.  I thought Jenkins, McKelvin, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Branden Albert all could have filled needs and were all significantly better players than Mayo.  All would have all filled areas of need for the Patriots.

Terrence Wheatley was then selected in the second round.  Not only do I not like his upside as much as the other 3 corners that I listed above, but I think the Patriots could have found a linebacker at that spot that would have improved two positions.  Dan Conner at that spot would have been more enticing to me than Wheatly.  When combined with one of those top corners, it could have helped the Patriots more in the long run.

The Patriots always seem to do well in the draft, so they probably will grade out very high in a couple years.  Mayo is going to a great system for his talents and the Patriots consistently get their day 2 picks right.  They selected linebacker depth and special teams help.  Linebacker Shawn Crable is a player many people think may help sooner rather than later. They also drafted a quarterback in Kevin O’Connell. 

Still, when a 16-0 team gets the 7th pick in the draft, I think people were expecting a bigger name than Mayo.   I think you could argue that they got the 20th best player in the top 25 picks of the draft, trailing only Baker, Cherilus, Flacco, C. Johnson.  You hope for more than that with the 7th pick in the draft.  That is my criticism of the Patriots, although if he turns out to be the real deal the Patriots will be in good shape.

That is my draft recap.  Now that the draft is over I will put together my list of 5 winners and losers with regards to the NFL schedule and aim for starting my division previews in May.  Stay tuned to this blog and www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com for continuing coverage of the NFL.

 

I apologize for being on such a long hiatus.  While the NFL season is year long event I needed a break from my blog.  As a Packer fan it has definitely been a long month.  I can not wait for the draft to arrive so that we can tally up some winners and losers there and start making some predictions for 2008.   While the draft does not happen for another 3 weeks I have completed a mock draft.  I encourage you to check it out at:  http://fantasyfootballmaniaxs.alexia.us/inde
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After the opening weekend of free agency I gave an opinion as to who my top five winners and losers were of the opening weekend.  I think that we have had enough activity in free agency to tally up some winners and losers from the entire Free Agency Period of the NFL off season.  Assuming that nothing major happens between now and the NFL draft here are my 5 winners and 5 losers:

5 Winners

1) Cleveland Browns – Normally I am not in favor of teams giving away their draft to acquire players through trades. I think the Browns made the best of a bad situation.  They didn’t have a first round pick this year thanks to their Brady Quinn trade of a year ago.  They weren’t going to dominate the draft in 2008.  What they did do is improve their team by giving free agent dollars and draft picks for guys that have not turned 30 years old.  Corey Williams will be 28-years old when the season starts. Shaun Rogers will be 29.  Stallworth will be 28 in November. While they probably overpaid for his services only $10 million of his $35 million contract was guaranteed. That is pretty good seeing Berrian received $16 million guaranteed. Derek Anderson is still young. Keeping him was huge in making sure they maintain a positive quarterback situation. Their signings should be relevant to the Browns organization for years to come.

The Browns have been building their team with high draft picks for a number of years. It was time to try to make a splash in free agency and try to pass the Steelers in the AFC North.  While they were aggressive they weren’t stupid about it like some other teams in the NFL that I will mention later. They addressed a lot of need positions with solid players. They did it by acquiring seasoned players but not players in the twilight of their career. The Browns were not that far away from the Steelers last season.  If these moves pan out watch out for the Browns in the always intriguing AFC North. 

2) New Orleans Saints – The Saints did a lot of nice things to open free agency. They acquired Jonathan Vilma for a conditional pick in the 2009 draft. While he was injured in 2007 he also had been struggling because he didn’t fit into the 3-4 scheme the Jets began playing when Herm Edwards left. If he can re-emerge as the same player that was the NFL Rookie of the Year in 2005 and Pro Bowl Alternate in 2006 the Saints got a steal. Bringing in Dan Morgan is a risk, but it was only for a one year deal.  If he can stay healthy he will contribute.  Randall #### was a nice signing for 17.6 million over 4 years. While he is not the gigantic signing that was Samuel he should upgrade the pathetic Saints secondary. They signed Rodney McCray who will be 27-years old this year and should help their defensive line. They were able to retain Deverey Henderson, which will help their offense. They were also able to retain LB Mark Simoneau and DT Brian Young which helps their defense.

I think the Saints did a lot better by signing players that will fit into their system than they did in 2007. The Saints went a long way to improving their defense which gave up too many big plays last season.  Considering they have the 10th pick in the draft they have a lot of flexibility to add another immediate impact player and improve this team that is only a year removed from the NFC Title Game. 

3) Tennessee Titans – I like how this team has built on their run to the wildcard last season.  They signed guard Jake Scott away from the Colts which helps them and hurts a division rival.  The money was reasonable at 4 years for $5.0 million per year.  They signed Alge Crumpler after he was released by the Falcons.  He should help considerably if he can stay healthy by giving Young a go to target in the red zone and third down.  They were able to bring Jevon Kearse back to the Titans.  He is a former Titan that should help if his health holds up.  They also added WR Justin McCareins from the Jets. 

These aren’t players that will send shivers down opposing fan’s spines, but they are solid players that will help the Titans win football games in 2008.  This is a team that sat out of the opening week of free agency, but was able to add solid veterans at salary friendly contracts.  The biggest key for them going forward is to have a solid draft and resolve the contract dispute with Albert Haynesworth.  He is essential to their defense.  While there were other teams that broke the bank the Titans added good talent, but stayed smart.  I think that conservative approach will pay off. 

4) - Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles demonstrated why in the Andy Reid era; year in and year out they are among the best franchises in the NFL.  They were able to eliminate some older players from their roster in Spikes and Kearse and signed the most coveted free agent on the market in Samuel.  While Samuel did play in a 3-4 and will be switching to a 4-3, both teams are aggressive when it comes to blitzing. He will be asked to do the same things he did in New England. Then instead of canceling out a good signing by overpaying someone they stayed put and are going to use the draft to continue to improve their roster.  The temptation could have been to throw a lot of money at Berrian or another underachieving wide receiver in a useless attempt to upgrade the offense. The Eagles have now significantly improved their defense and can concentrate their high picks in the draft to improve the skill positions on offense. I think the Eagles started the free agency season out with a #### and built on that by maintaining a conservative approach. 

5) Atlanta Falcons – Very similar to what the Eagles did.  They made their big splash by signing Michael the Burner Turner to a large deal.  He should give them a nice weapon rushing the ball and is a much better compliment to the skill set of Norwood than Dunn was.  Then they do a bunch of smaller moves.  They resign Harrington and Redman to contracts.  This gives them the flexibility to either draft Ryan or go in a different direction later in the draft.  Both are decent stop gap guys when developing a franchise quarterback.  They signed Jason Elam which upgrades the kicking game.  They get a second round pick for Hall and rid themselves of a locker room problem.   They rid themselves of a big salary by releasing Crumpler.  All of these moves will allow them to continue to rebuild a franchise that was devastated by the conviction of Michael Vick.  While I don’t think the Falcons will compete for the playoffs next season, I do think they are on the road to recovery.  Instead of trying to throw money at their problems and make it worse they seem to have a solid plan going forward.

5  Losers

1) Green Bay Packers – I actually had the Packers on the winner side after the opening weekend for getting a 2nd round pick from Cleveland for a player in Corey Williams that they had absolutely no intention of keeping.  What a difference a couple of days made.  On March 4, 2008 the Packer fortunes changed forever when future Hall of Famer and all time great NFL quarterback Brett Favre announced his retirement from the NFL.  Franchise Quarterbacks are extremely tough to replace.  Hall of Fame players that have been the face of the franchise for over 15 years are next to impossible.  While life will go on for the Packers this loss will hurt significantly, especially in the 2008 season.

The Packers have a promising backup in Aaron Rodgers.  For all the people that think he is the answer because o####ood showing in the Dallas game I encourage you to research the career of Buffalo Bills quarterback Rob Johnson, who was given franchise dollars based on one game as the Jaguars backup.  The Dallas game is zero indication of the starting quarterback Rodgers will become.  The encouraging thing is that Rodgers does appear to have made strides since his first training camp in Green Bay.  The bad news is that he has had injury problems as the backup.  He broke his ankle in 2006 missing the second half of season.  Last year he pulled his hamstring in practice and was inactive for the end of the regular season.  If the Packers are going to be contender in 2008 they can’t replace the Iron Man with the China Doll.  Rodgers must stay healthy as the options behind him are bleak. 

The Packers have no way of replacing a player of Brett Favre’s talents in the draft or free agency for next season and even though they have a young and promising team, quarterback is the most important position on the team.  Losing a Hall of Fame Quarterback is huge and makes them the big loser of the 2008 off season. 

2) New York Jets – The Jets have been experts at getting old and average talent for millions this off season.  The Jets signed OG Alan Faneca to a five year $40 million dollar deal.  OT Damien Woody to a 5 year $25.5 million dollar deal.  Bubba Franks was signed to a 1 year $1.65 million dollar contract for being an injury case in Green Bay.  Tony Richardson who is an aging injured player was signed away from the Vikings.  On defense they signed ex-Cardinals OLB Calvin Pace to a six year, $42 million contract.  They traded a third and fifth round pick for ex-Panthers DT Kris Jenkins and proceeded to sign him to a 5 year $35.0 million dollar contract.  Then to top everything off they guaranteed the last $11.0 million of Cole’s salary. 

Ladies and Gentleman, I introduce to you the new and recently relocated Washington Redskins.  The only player that I would have been happy with my favorite team signing was Faneca.  Pace is a good player, but not worth the investment the Jets paid him.  Everyone else I see as either consistently injured, consistently old, or consistently underachieving.  In some cases it is all three.  The fact that they mortgaged their salary cap future to overpay average to below average talent speaks volumes that this team is not headed toward contention anytime soon.   

3) Oakland Raiders – Another team that just doesn’t get it. I like what they did a little better than the Jets, because I think Hall has the ability to be a shut down c