This is my final installment of eight NFL division previews.  While there is still over a month until training camps most of the rosters are complete. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp.  However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft.   Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.

a) AFC East 

b) NFC East 

c) AFC South 

d) NFC South 

e) AFC North 

f) NFC North 

g) AFC West 

h) NFC West

The NFC West had a rough year in 2007.  Seattle won the division with a 10-6 record, but was 1-1 against playoff teams.  They won their wildcard game against Washington before being blown out by Green Bay in the Divisional Round. Arizona finished 8-8, but two disappointing losses to the 49ers kept them out of playoff contention.  The 49ers were a trendy pick to win the division after a free agency spending spree and finished 5-11.  Finally, the Rams who were also a trendy pick to win the division finished 3-13 and had the second overall pick in the draft.   Injuries and inconsistent play were largely responsible for a division that produced only one team with a winning record. 

The NFC West has been owned by the Seattle Seahawks, who have won the division for 4 consecutive seasons and made the playoffs for 5 consecutive seasons.  Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the NFC West.

 

1)            Arizona Cardinals

07 Record: 8-8

Points Scored: 404 (7th)

Points Allowed: 399 (27th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule:  119-137 (.465) (22nd (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Arizona Cardinals have one of the strongest passing offenses in the NFL.  Larry Fitzgerald had 100 catches for 1,409 yards and 10 touchdowns.  Anquan Boldin added 71 catches for 853 yards and 9 touchdowns, despite missing 5 starts with an injury.  Those two are the most explosive wide receiver combo in the NFC.  Fitzgerald will be 25 years old at the end of August and Boldin will be 28 years old in October.   If the Cardinals can resolve Boldin’s contract issues they should have a dominant receiving duo for years to come.  Bryant Johnson was a solid 3rd receiver and is only 27 years old.  Losing him to division rival San Francisco was a meaningful loss.  He has filled in well in he past when Boldin or Fitzgerald was hurt.  Ben Patrick and Leonard Pope are young tight ends that the Cardinals hope can emerge.  The Cardinals are loaded with young offensive weapons at WR and TE.

Kurt Warner enjoyed his best season since his years in St Louis.  He had 11 starts, 3,417 yards passing, 27 touchdowns, 17 picks, and an 89.8 QB rating.  He is expected to be the backup to 3rd year QB Matt Leinart who really struggled at the beginning of the season before having his 2007 campaign cut short by a collarbone injury.  Leinart has reportedly looked very strong this offseason, but Warner is still taking snaps with the first team.  If he struggles the coaching staff will not hesitate to go with Warner.

Edge James rebounded slightly in 2007, thanks to a coaching staff that focused on the run slightly more than Denny Green.  His 1,222 rushing yards were 7th in the NFL and he improved his yards per carry from 3.4 to 3.8, which is still not great.  That signing has not produced the results many thought it would.  The Cardinals have no one else that ran the ball and finished 29th in rushing yards gained.

The Cardinals front seven did a nice job of stopping the run, finishing 9th in the NFL.   They also finished 13th in sacks with 36.  Losing Calvin Pace to the Jets was a significant loss, but the Jets drastically overpaid for his services.  Six years and 42 million dollars was too much cap space to part with. The Cardinals did not replace him with anyone in free agency or the draft. 4th year player Chike Okeafor is expected to take that spot. 

Weaknesses: Ken Whisenhunt was an assistant for the Steelers on teams that had very strong defenses.  That is what he has been brought in to fix.  He needs to install toughness on offense and rebuild a bad defense.  The Cardinals have had a good enough passing offense to make the playoffs the last few years. The main problem on defense was stopping the pass.  They finished 28th in pass yards allowed and 25th in touchdown passes allowed.

That was the main motivation for adding Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the first round of the draft.  The Cardinals could have used a back to split carries with Edge, but the Cardinals could not pass on the opportunity to add secondary help.  He has big play potential and is expected to be the nickel back as a rookie.  Roderick Hood and Eric Green are expected to remain the starters.  Adrian Wilson is a solid safety and Antrel Rolle will be the other safety this year.  The secondary should be improved in 2008.

The other area the Cardinals wanted to improve on was the pass rush.  While 36 sacks ranked 12th it was also 17 sacks less than the league leading NY Giants.  The Cardinals were far from an elite pass rushing group last season.  Darnell Dockett made the Pro Bowl with his 9 sacks at defensive tackle spot.  The Cardinals drafted Calais Campbell and Kenny Iwebema to give them more depth at defensive end and more of a pass rush. 

Finally, the offensive line still needs some work.  James is still an effective runner, but doesn’t get the same lanes he did in Indy.  Brown and Gandy are good at tackle, but the Cardinals have little depth behind those two.  The interior of the offensive line is improved from the Denny Green days, but still needs work.

Prediction:  This is my surprise division winner pick in 2008.  The Cardinals have been a trendy wildcard pick the last couple seasons only to disappoint.  I picked them to finish 4th last season, which turned out to be an underestimate.  I thought it would take a couple years to recover from the Denny Green era.  There are good things going on in Arizona and few people realize the Cardinals were two bad 49er losses away from earning a wildcard.  The Cardinals beat the Steelers, Seahawks, and Browns last season.  This was anything but a pushover.

I love the schedule to start the season.  1) @ San Fran, 2) Miami, 3) Washington, 4) New York Jets, and 5) Buffalo gives them an excellent chance to start 4-1.  They need to start hot because they close the season with 15) Minnesota, 16) @ New England, and 17) Seattle.  That isn’t going to be an easy stretch to make up ground.

Arizona had a very nice draft and would be a bigger favorite to me if they had their quarterback situation figured out.  Warner is a question mark at this point in his career and Leinart needs to break out this year.  If he has another year like he did last year he is going to earn the bust label.  I expect him to rebound.  I think Arizona made a good hire in Whisenhunt and the Cardinals are on the way up.  I think Seattle’s window has started to close.  This is the year I think the Cardinals finally put it together and win the NFC West behind a potent offense and a favorable schedule.

Arizona Cardinals’ Record: 9-7 – NFC West Divisional Champion; NFC #4 Seed

 

2)            Seattle Seahawks

07 Record: 10-6

Points Scored: 393 (9th)

Points Allowed: 291 (6th)

Playoff Result: Lost NFC Divisional Round

2008 Strength of Schedule: 122-134 (.477) (19th in NFL) 

Strengths:  The strength of this team is their defense.  That is important, because no other team has a defense with as much talent as the Seahawks in the NFC West.  The Seahawks recorded the 4th most sacks in the NFL with 45.  That was in large part to Patrick Kearny and his All Pro 14.5 sack season.  The defensive line did an excellent job of putting pressure on the quarterback.

What they need to improve on is stopping the run.  They ranked 12th in rush yards allowed and 27th in rush touchdowns allowed.  That was really the defense’s only weakness in 2007.  This is a very fast front 7, which creates the pressure, but is a little on the light side to stop the run.  The Green Bay Packers exposed the Seahawks for that weakness in the divisional round.  Ryan Grant ran right through that defense for the tune of 201 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns.

Lofa Tatupu has emerged as one of the best middle linebackers in the NFL.  He was an All Pro selection last season.  Julian Peterson was selected to the Pro Bowl at the outside linebacker spot.  These two are extremely fast and make plays all over the field.

In the secondary Marcus Trufant had a Pro Bowl year with 7 picks.  He is emerging as one of the NFL’s top cornerbacks.  Jennings, Russell, and Grant round out a very solid secondary.

On offense, Matt Haselbeck has established himself as one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL.  He had 3,966 yards passing, 28 touchdowns, 12 picks, and a 91.4 rating without the benefit of getting much help from the running game.  He is now the featured part of the Seahawks offense.

Alexander had only 716 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns in 2007.  That seems incomprehensible when you consider he had 1,880 rushing yards and 27 rushing touchdowns in 2005.  Alexander was released and while it will look strange not to have him as the featured runner for the first time since his rookie season in 2000, the Seahawks abandoned him in 2007 and were already featuring Hasselbeck and the passing game.  That will make that transition easier.

Finally, you can’t talk about the Seahawks offense without mentioning Walter Jones.  He has been as solid of a tackle as the NFL has had over the last decade.  At 34 he is still going strong.  He anchors a line that is still good, but not as dominant as 2005 when they went to the Super Bowl.

Weaknesses:  This is a team with a lot of question marks on offense.  That is a surprising statement given Mike Holmgren’s reputation as an offensive mastermind.

Let’s start with the wide receivers.  Deion Branch tore his ACL in the playoff loss to the Packers on January 15, 2008.  That really puts his status in jeopardy to start the season.  Bobby Engram is 35 years old.  He had a career year with 94 catches and 1,147 yards.  He is unhappy and demanding a new deal.  DJ Hackett left for Carolina.  That leaves special team standout, but disappointing receiver Nate Burleson and Ben Obomanu to battle for playing time opposite Engram.  That is huge, because of the Seahawks inability to run the ball last year.  They used a lot of 4 WR sets to spread the ball out.  Teams need a lot of WR depth to do that.  The Seahawks are not as deep as last year and that is a concern.

The Seahawks have no tight end production.  The tight end is a big component in the West Coast offense.  Marcus Pollard was released.  Will Heller is expected to be the starter.  He has 32 catches for 228 yards and 7 touchdowns, not last year but in 5 years and 58 career games.  John Carlson is a rookie 2nd round and will be expected to contribute immediately.  

Then there is the running game.  People need to stop acting like Julius Jones is the savior of the running game.  He rushed for 3.6 yards per carry behind one of the best offensive lines in football with Dallas last year.  There is a reason the Cowboys went with Barber and let Jones walk.  He should be a good fit in this offense, but I can’t see him rushing for 1,200 plus yards and 10 touchdowns.  He is not a featured back.  Morris, Duckett, and Jones will split duties depending on the situation.  I don’t look for any of them to emerge.

Then there is the offensive line.  Walter Jones is now 34 years old.  The Seahawks have never really replaced Hutchinson since he left for Minnesota.  Mike Wahle was a good pickup at guard, but he hasn’t been the same since he left Green Bay.  He was injured in 2006 and played on a bad offense in 2007.  If he can return to his Green Bay form it will help the Seahawks regain their running form of a few years ago.

Finally, there is the special teams factor.  Josh Brown signed with St Louis and was an extremely reliable kicker.  The new kicker is no other than Olindo Mare, who was a disaster in New Orleans.  He was 10 for 17 on field goals and New Orleans plays in a lot of nice weather sites, including their dome.  How is he going to respond kicking in the elements.  When you add those things all together I think the offense is going to take a significant step back in 2008.  I think Mare could cost them a couple games that Brown would have won.

Prediction:  This is supposed to be Mike Holmgren’s last season with the Seahawks before he calls it quits on what has been a legendary career.  He has coached in 3 Super Bowls, winning it all in Super Bowl XXXI.  He coached all time great Joe Montana and Hall of Famer Steve Young as a coordinator in San Fran.  He developed one of the all time great quarterbacks in Brett Favre as the Packer’s Head Coach.  He has gone to a Super Bowl in Seattle developing Hasselbeck to go along with Alexander and a strong running game.  His coaching tree speaks for itself.  The number of ex Holmgren assistants coaching around the NFL is long and prominent.  If he actually decides to hang it up it will have been a fantastic career, one that should see him inducted into Canton, Ohio.

It would seem logical to pick the Hawks to win the division in his last year and ride out into the sunset.  I just don’t like the Seahawks team this season as much as in years past.  I think they have gotten a little bit older.  I don’t think they have a lot of good answers at wide receiver.  I’m not a fan of their running game.  I’m not going to pick an offense to do well, just because they have a head coach and quarterback with solid reputations.  There are a lot of other things that go into having a good offense.

Still, the Seahawks are going to score points.  This is not one of the 10 worst offenses in the NFL.  It isn’t even the worst offense in the division.  However in order for the defense to get those sacks and not give up a lot of rushing yards, Seattle needs their offense to dominate the action.  I’m not sure they can do that in 2008 like they did last season.

The Seahawks have been the class of this division since 2003.  However, there are moments when you look back and see the door slam shut on a teams run.  That’s what I think we saw in that Green Bay game.  The Seahawks had a 14-0 lead in that game and proceed to get stomped.  That game was disturbing on so many levels.  It wasn’t that they lost; it was how they lost.  They were manhandled on both sides of the ball.  They have progressively gone in the wrong direction since 2005.  A very weak schedule and bad division probably saved them in 2007.

I think they have a pretty tough stretch in the middle of the season.  They play 9) Philadelphia, 10) @ Miami, 11) Arizona, 12) Washington, 13) @ Dallas, and 14) New England.  They also have games against 6) Green Bay and 7) @ Tampa Bay, which will not be as good as last year, but still tough.

The Seahawks will still win their share of games.  They will still be tough at home.  I wouldn’t be shocked if they were able to put together a division winner.  The NFC West isn’t exactly the toughest division right now.  I just think it is someone else’s time.  The Cardinals should be able to maneuver the middle of the season with greater ease than the Seahawks and build a cushion heading into their tough stretch to close the season.  While the Cardinals will not run away with the division, I predict they will sneak by the Seahawks, who will still be tough, but not as tough as in years past.

Seattle Seahawks’ Record: 8-8 – NFC West 2nd Place; No Playoffs

 

 

3)            St Louis Rams

07 Record: 3-13

Points Scored: 263 (28th)

Points Allowed: 438 (31st)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 125-131 (.488) (17th in NFL)

Strengths:  When you start the season 0-8, finish with the 2nd worst scoring defense and the 5th worst scoring offense there aren’t a lot of things to hang your hat on.  However, the Rams were probably hit by injuries worse than any team in the NFL.  They had massive casualties on the offensive line, including future Hall of Fame tackle Orlando Pace, who was lost for the season in the opener.  He missed 8 games in 2006 and it remains to be seen if he can still stay healthy an entire season.

Steven Jackson and Marc Bulger missed 4 starts each.  Torry Holt was not the same Torry Holt as a couple years ago due to his knee condition.  Doctors feel he will be able to play still, but fear it will be a chronic problem.  If those three guys aren’t healthy the whole season the Rams can’t win.

Issac Bruce is no longer with the team, having moved to San Francisco.  He was a great receiver for many years, but Holt has been the go to guy in recent years.  They still have Bennett and they drafted Donnie Avery in the second round.  Randy McMichael needs to regain his Dolphin form from a few seasons ago.

Josh Brown was a nice addition.  He is a solid kicker that is an upgrade over Wilkins and hurts a division rival at the same time.

The bottom line is that the 28th ranking in scoring offense from last season is deceiving.  When this offense is healthy it is extremely dangerous.  Bulger had 4,301 yards, 24 touchdowns, and only 8 picks in 2006.  Steven Jackson had 2,334 rushing and receiving yards and scored 16 touchdowns in 2006.  Holt had 1,188 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2006.  He had almost identical numbers in 2007, but had 3 fewer touchdowns catches.  These are three of the premier offensive players in the NFL.  When they are healthy and at full strength they can put up points in bunches.  Given the state of their defense that will be a must if they want to win in 2008.

Weaknesses:  This defense has all kinds of problems.  They struggled to stop the pass, rush the passer, and stop the run.  Their only real strength on defense was playmaking.  They ranked tied for 10th in the NFL with interceptions with 18 interceptions.  However, when you give up over 20 points in 12 of the 16 games there is going to be problems winning games.  The defense was a joke in December giving up 33 points to Green Bay, 41 to Pittsburgh, and 48 to Arizona.  No defense was playing as bad as the Rams at the end of the season.

That was the main reason for selecting Chris Long with the second pick in the draft. Defenses are built from the defensive line out and the Rams need to overhaul that unit.  Adam Carriker can then move to defensive tackle.  With Leonard Little, James Hall, and Chris Long rushing from the ends the Rams are hoping they can put more pressure on the quarterback.  They also added Justin King in the 4th round to help in the secondary.  He was an up and down corner at Penn State.  He should be a nickel and dime package guy as a rookie.

However, other than Long they really haven’t made a lot of changes to a defense that was downright awful in 2007. I still see St Louis as one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL.

The other area of concern was the offensive line.  John Greco was drafted in the 3rd round to provide depth.  They really didn’t add anyone other than him there either.  If they suffer injuries like they did last year they will struggle to maximize their skill position talent.

Finally, Trent Green was an interesting signing.  They went from a bad backup in Gus Frerotte to a guy that a few years ago was among the better QBs in the league.  However, they aren’t getting the guy that threw for over 4,500 yards in 2004.  They are getting a guy that is a concussion away from retirement.  If Bulger misses a lot of time the Rams do not stand a good chance to compete in most games.  I don’t think Green can hold up for more than a game or two.

Prediction: This is a team that looked to be headed in the right direction with Scott Linehan finishing 8-8 in his first year.  I thought they would win the NFC West last season.  This defense has absolutely collapsed and the Rams are in need of a major overhaul.

I thought this team really struck out in the draft.  I like Chris Long and think he will be a fantastic player.  He may be the only player on this roster in three years from now.  Avery and King were real reaches in my opinion.

The Rams will do better in 2008, just because their skill position players should stay healthy and they have the offense to score.   That still means 10 losses and another top 10 pick in 2008.

St Louis Rams’ Record:  6-10 – NFC West 3rd Place; No Playoffs

 

 

4)            San Francisco 49ers

07 Record: 5-11

Points Scored: 219 (32nd)

Points Allowed: 364 (20th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 124-132 (.484) (18th in NFL)

Strengths:  Patrick Willis had as good of a rookie year as I can remember from a defensive rookie.  He had 174 tackles, including back-to-back 18 tackle games against Arizona and Carolina and a 20-tackle game against Tampa Bay.  Rarely is a rookie able to come into the NFL in his first year and put up those kinds of numbers.  When you consider how little help he had around him it was a very impressive start to what I expect will be a great career.

The 49ers have some nice pieces on defense.  I already mentioned Willis.  He is a player the defense can build around.  Kentwan Balmer was a nice first round pick that should give them help at defensive tackle.  Manny Lawson is a young star in the making that was limited to 2 games last season.  If he can come back healthy that will help the defense.  Nate Clements gives them a corner to build the secondary around and Michael Lewis is a good safety.   Walt Harris gives them a good second corner.

The defense struggled to stop people, because they got no help from the offense.  Turnovers and a lack of yardage put the 49ers defense against their backs in 2007.  This defense rarely played with a big lead.  While this defense will never be confused with the 2000 Ravens they need a better offense to realize their full potential.

On offense, Frank Gore took a step back in 2007 with injuries.  He had 1,102 yards and 5 touchdowns.  They were hoping for the 1,695 and 8 touchdowns he gave them in 2006.  With the passing game the 49ers have in place they will need him to get back to his 2006 numbers if they want to win more than 5 games in 2008.  DeShaun Foster was a very good signing that should give them good depth at the running back position.

Mike Martz has been brought in to fix the offense.  Issac Bruce was a good signing as he is familiar with the system and can help mentor the younger guys.  Vernon Davis has all the tools to be an All-Pro Tight End.  It will be interesting to see how Martz utilizes his talent, given his history of not using tight ends in his pass heavy offensive scheme.

Weaknesses:  This was not the worst offense I ever saw.  The 2006 Oakland Raiders and their 168 points scored take that honor.  49er fans will remind me their 2005 product may have been worse than 2007.  But this offense was so bad on so many levels.  The offense scored more than 20 points on just two occasions (21 against Tampa Bay and 37 against Arizona).  When you consider Tampa played their backups most of that game you can understand why this team struggled to win games in 2007.  Their offensive production was horrific.

In my opinion Alex Smith is a major bust.  Part of that is because he plays in a new offensive system every year.  Part of the reason is that he plays so bad that he helps the offensive coordinator get fired every year.  To label a guy a bust at 24 years old may seem premature to some people.  However, he is entering his 4th year.  There gets to be a point where a guy is no longer a young player, but rather just a bad player.  He has a career 63.5 QB rating in 30 career starts.   He had 2 touchdown throws in 7 starts in 2007.  The game appears to be played at a speed that is too fast for him at a time when it should have already slowed down.  It will be interesting to see if the 49ers go with Shaun Hill or if they give Alex Smith the entire season to show if he has what it takes to play in this league.

The 49ers don’t have much in the way of targets.  Bruce is an upgrade, but his best days are clearly behind him.  Bryant Johnson has been a 3rd receiver the majority of his career.  It remains to be seen if he can carry an offense.   Battle and Lelie are not players that have proven they can contribute on offense.  This is a very thin receiving core, which does not allow Martz to run the offense he would like to run.

Prediction: There just aren’t a lot of good things to say about this team right now.  It amazes me that a team that was so successful in the 80s and 90s has fallen on such hard times.  Even if Joe Montana and Steve Young seems like ages ago, Jeff Garcia and TO does not.  The 49ers went 22-10 in 2001 and 2002.  They made the playoffs both season.  Since then 7-9 is the best they have done.

Mike Nolan is a good defensive coordinator that just hasn’t been able to get an offense in place.  Part of that is Alex Smith.  That was the quarterback the 49ers drafted in his rookie campaign.  Whether it is Nolan’s fault that Smith hasn’t developed or Smith’s fault that Nolan’s offenses can’t score is an interesting debate.  It is most likely a little of both.  The 49ers have finished last in the NFL in yards gained 2 out of his 3 years, so it couldn’t be much worse than it is right now.  This team has very little offensive firepower.

I think Gore and the defense give them a chance to win a few games.  I like the fact they play the AFC East and the Rams twice.  That gives them a chance to be competitive in some of their games.  The bottom line though is that you need offense to win in the NFL and the 49ers just don’t have enough of it to compete week in and week out.  Their defense is solid, but not like the 2005 Bears where it can carry a nonexistent offense.  I look for more of the same in 2008.  I think the 49ers finish 4-12, end the Mike Nolan era, and look forward to their next rebuilding project.

San Francisco 49ers’ Record:  4-12 – NFC West 4th Place; No Playoffs

That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008.  I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July.  I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008.  Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews.  You have made writing these a lot of fun.

As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team. 

As I had promised earlier, I was going to release the 5 teams that received a kind deal from the NFL schedule maker and 5 teams that were not treated as well.  I wanted to wait until after the draft before I made my final call on that.  There are a couple things to keep in mind.  1) I tried not to pick a bunch of teams from the same division.  I know Cleveland has a tough schedule as well.  14 of their 16 opponents are the same as Pittsburgh’s schedule.  What is the point of covering two teams with almost identical schedules?  I tried to pick teams from different divisions when breaking down the schedule.  2) I tried to give deference to stretches of tough or easy games over overall schedule.  While one team may have a similar strength of schedule, if those tough games are bunched into 6 weeks, I think that makes for a tougher schedule. 

 Without further delay, here is my list:

 5 Teams that Were Brutalized by the NFL Schedule Maker

1)    Pittsburgh Steelers – This is by far the most brutal schedule in the NFL.   The Steelers face 8 different playoff teams from 2007.  They also face Cleveland twice, which won 10 games and finished a tiebreaker out of the playoffs.  Here is their schedule from Week 5 to Week 14: 5) at Jacksonville, 6) Bye, 7) at Cincinnati, 8) NY Giants, 9) at Washington, 10) Indianapolis, 11) San Diego, 12) Cincinnati, 13) at New England, 14) Dallas.

Thank god for the Bengals or there would be no easy games.  In particular that stretch playing Indy, San Diego, at New England, and Dallas is brutal.  The Steelers opponents winning percentage in 2008 was .598.  That is toughest in the NFL.  Their only opponents that had losing records in 2007 are Cincinnati (2) and Baltimore (2).  When you consider that most people feel the Ravens had a very quality draft, they should be improved in 2008.  The Steelers did well in the draft and have a solid nucleus returning in 2008.  However, they have no favors when it comes to the schedule. 

2)    Indianapolis – It is bad enough having to play in the AFC South where both Jacksonville and Tennessee made the playoffs.  They have the following stretch of games: 7) at Green Bay, 8) at Tennessee, 9) New England, 10) at Pittsburgh, 11) Houston, 12) at San Diego, 13) at Cleveland.

That is 5 playoff teams in 7 weeks.  Cleveland was a 10 game winner that was very busy in free agency.  There are 3 road games in 4 weeks with the only home game being against New England.  The winning percentage of the Colts opponents in 2007 was .594, which is not that much behind the Steelers.  When you consider the pass rushers Jacksonville added and the Colts not having a first round pick, I believe the gap has closed between Indy and the rest of that division.  While the Colts are still very talented, they will have more than their share of obstacles to repeat in the AFC South.

3)    Green Bay Packers – When you look at the NFL schedule, you can begin to see why Brett Favre didn’t think returning to the playoffs based on the development of the team would be enough to ensure a playoff birth.  Here is their schedule from Week 3 through 11.  3) Dallas, 4) at Tampa Bay, 5) Atlanta, 6)      at Seattle, 7) Indianapolis, 8) Bye, 9) at Tennessee, 10) at Minnesota, 11) Chicago, 12) at New Orleans.

That is a lot of tough games.  5 of those 9 teams are playoff teams.  Minnesota has added Jared Allen and the Packers couldn’t beat the Bears last year when the Pack won 13 games. Two of the Pack’s 3 losses were to Chicago.  New Orleans could return to their 2006 form this season.  The only victory that would seem certain is the Atlanta game at home.  The Packer’s opponents winning percentage in 2007 was .531.  The Packers aren’t going to have much time to adjust to life without #4.  They had best get out of the gate fast, because the schedule will be unforgiving if they need to make up ground starting in Week 6. 

4)    Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys are naturally going to have a tough schedule seeing that they were one of 3 teams that made the playoffs in their own division.  Furthermore, the Eagles were 8-8 and signed the biggest free agent in the offseason in Samuel.  Still, the Cowboys have a brutal stretch in the middle of the season.  8) Tampa Bay, 9) at NY Giants, 11) at Washington, 12) San Francisco, 13) Seattle, 14) at Pittsburgh, 15) NY Giants.

That would be 6 playoff opponents in 7 weeks for the Dallas Cowboys.  The Cowboys overall schedule had a winning percentage of .523 in 2007.  The Cowboys had a 13-3 record in 2007 and potentially added 4 key pieces on draft weekend to go along with Zach Thomas.  They did what they needed to do to keep pace.  However, they will not be able to have the lapses they had at the end of the season in 2007, otherwise their schedule is strong enough to make them pay in 2008.

5)    Seattle Seahawks – The Seahawks don’t have that 8 game stretch where they play a bunch of playoff opponents.  Playing in the NFC West helps in that regard.  Still, the Seahawks opponents had a .477 winning percentage in 2007.  Of note there are 2 three game stretches that could give the Hawks some issues.  5) at NY Giants, 6) Green Bay, 7) at Tampa Bay & 12) Washington, 13) at Dallas, 14) New England.

The Seahawks have some nice games against Miami, New York Jets, Buffalo, St Louis (2), and San Francisco (2).  Arizona is probably their most formidable opponent in the division.  It is imperative that they take care of those teams and not suffer any lapses.  This shouldn’t be like 2007 when they played 2 playoff teams the entire season and none in the last 10 weeks of the season.  If the Seahawks stumble where they shouldn’t, the schedule will be much less forgiving. 

5 Teams that Were Spared by the NFL Schedule Maker

1)    New England Patriots – It must be pretty nice to be coming off a 16-0 regular season and not only get the 7th pick in the draft, but get the league’s easiest schedule at .387.  Part of that is due to the 1-15 Dolphins and 4-12 NY Jets residing in their division.  Still, here are there first 4 opponents:  1) Kansas City. 2) at NY Jets, 3) Miami, 4) Bye, 5) at San Francisco. 

The only time they play 2007 playoff opponents in back to back weeks are Pittsburgh and Seattle in Weeks 13 and 14.  There are only 4 playoff opponents out of 16 on their schedule.  That is the minimum a team that finished in 1st place can play the following season.  I’m sure the NY Jets will be better and that there will be some surprises on their schedule.  However, considering the season the Patriots had and the changes they are making on defense, they got a very favorable schedule.  It is easy not only in terms of overall quality, but the lack of quality they play in the first 5 weeks of the season while those new parts become acclimated to the Patriot’s way. 

2)    San Diego Chargers – Very similar situation to the Patriots.  They play in a bad division and therefore only drew 4 playoff opponents out of a possible 16 opponents on their schedule.  Their first 5 opponents are 1) Carolina, 2) at Denver, 3) NY Jets, 4) at Oakland, 5) at Miami.

The Chargers have a few tougher obstacles that the Patriots.  They did draw Pittsburgh and Indy in back to back weeks for Week 11 and 12.  New Orleans could rebound from their dismal 2007 campaign.  Overall, the Chargers look like they are in pretty good shape with this schedule too.  Playing in the AFC West is a blessing in of itself.  Combined with 3 games against Buffalo, NY Jets, and Miami gives the Chargers an easier road than most.

3)    New Orleans Saints – I believe the schedule sets up nicely for the Saints to have a bounce back season in 2008.  Here is their schedule from Week 3 to 11.  3) at Denver, 4) San Francisco, 5) Minnesota, 6) Oakland, 7) at Carolina, 8) San Diego, 9) Bye, 10) at Atlanta, 11) at Kansas City.

Consider that there is only one playoff team from 2007 in that 7 game mix.  The Saints schedule had a winning percentage of .449 in 2007.  They play against the weak AFC West.  The NFC North is a relative unknown in 2008.  Who knows if Minnesota will be able to win given their QB situation, if the Bears will return to their 06 level, or if the Packers can survive without Favre?

Furthermore, the Saints divisional leader (Tampa) won only 9 games in 2007 and has several issues of their own.  Tampa fans will remind you that is because Tampa tanked the last couple games of the season.  Still, most objective people will agree the Bucs were the weakest divisional champion in 2007.  If New Orleans has fixed their defensive problems this offseason and can run the ball in 2008, the schedule sets up nicely for them.

4)    Arizona Cardinals -  I know, I know.  People have been telling you that Arizona is the team to watch in the NFC West since Denny Green took over.  Every year they find a way to win 8 games or less.  But, when you look at this schedule, they should get off to a great start.  Here is what they are looking at:  1) at San Francisco, 2) Miami, 3) at Washington, 4) at NY Jets, 5) Buffalo, 6) Dallas, 7) Bye, 8) at Carolina, 9) at St. Louis, 10) San Francisco. 

That is exactly 2 playoff teams in their first 9 games.  The overall schedule has a winning percentage of .465, so it is fairly friendly when compared to other teams.  They have to make sure they aren’t depending on the end of the season to win games.  They finish 15) Minnesota, 16) at New England, 17) Seattle.  However, if the Cardinals can continue to progress in year 2 of the Ken Whisenhunt program they will be in good shape to be competing either for the division or a wild card spot come the end of the season.

5)    Minnesota Vikings – Minnesota has a schedule where their opponents won .551 of their games in 2007.  Many people will not have them on the easy column.  However, I go further than just looking at percentages.  They get Green Bay on the road in Week 1.  That is huge, seeing the Packers will be playing their first game without Brett Favre.  They are retiring Favre’s number.  Rodgers is going to be as nervous as he ever will be.  What better time to play Green Bay on the road and potentially steal an early season divisional win on the road?

Second, they will not be playing any cold games.  Here is their schedule for November and December: 9) Houston, 10) Green Bay, 11) at Tampa Bay, 12) at Jacksonville, 13) Chicago, 14) at Detroit, 15) at Arizona, 16) Atlanta, 17) NY Giants.  That is huge for a team that traditionally does not play well in the elements.

Third, they don’t really have any stretches where they play multiple impossible games.  I really like them to do well from Week 13-16.  That is when teams are making their playoff push.  Week 1 and 2 at Green Bay and at home against Indy will be tough.  They play Green Bay, at Tampa Bay, and at Jacksonville in Week 10-12.  Green Bay and Tampa Bay are two teams that many people will not pick to repeat in the playoffs this season.  If that is your worst stretch of games, then things aren’t too bad.

While the numbers suggest that Minnesota has a tough schedule, the retirement of Brett Favre is not factored into that.  Take out Green Bay’s record and the Vikings opponents have a winning percentage of .513, which is much more manageable.  While the Vikings didn’t get a gift from the NFL, it isn’t nearly as bad as you might think.  The Vikings set up well to take an up for grab NFC North if they can survive the tough slate of AFC South games.

There you have it.  What did you think of your team’s schedule for 2008?  How do you think I broke down the schedule?  Do you think I am disrespecting a certain team’s schedule or not giving another team’s enough credit?  Let me know your thoughts.

We started to see some teams clinch playoff spots.  The Patriots clinched the AFC East last week.  The Cowboys, Packers, and Seahawks clinched their divisions this week.  Indianapolis clinched at least a wildcard.  A win over Oakland next week would clinch their division.    Meanwhile Miami is still looking for victory #1 against the Ravens this week.  If I didn't mention your favorite player or team, it isn't because I didn't watch the game or research the game.  It's because it would be impossible to mention every player or game in one newsletter.  Please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team.  Simply mention it in the comments section, and I will try to address it.  I hereby present to you a recap of the fourteenth week in the National Football League. 

Standings
 

AFC East                                NFC East
1.New England (13-0)**      1.Dallas (12-1)**
2.Buffalo (7-6)                        2.NY Giants (9-4)
3.NY Jets (3-10)                    3.Washington (6-7)
4. Miami (0-13)                      4.Philadelphia (5-8) 

 AFC South                              NFC South
1.Indianapolis (11-2)*           1. Tampa Bay (8-5)
2. Jacksonville (9-4)              2. New Orleans (6-7)
3. Tennessee (7-6)               3. Carolina (5-8)
4. Houston (6-7)                    4. Atlanta (3-10)
 

AFC North                              NFC North
1.Pittsburgh (9-4)                  1.Green Bay (10-2)**
2.Cleveland (8-5)                  2. Minnesota (7-6)
3.Cincinnati (5-8)                  3. Detroit (6-7)
4.Baltimore (4-9)                   4.Chicago (5-8)

 AFC West                             NFC West
1. San Diego (8-5)                 1. Seattle (9-4)**
2. Denver (6-7)                      2.Arizona (6-7)
3. Kansas City (4-9)              3. San Francisco (3-10)
4. Oakland (4-9)                    4. St Louis (3-10)
 
**Clinched Division
* Clinched Playoff Spot

MVP of the Week:  As is usually the case, it is hard to not go with Tom Brady and Randy Moss.  Brady had 399 yards passing and 4 touchdowns.  Moss had 135 yards and 2 touchdowns.  So much for the guarantee.  Jason Witten tied an NFL record for Tight Ends with 15 receptions.  He also had 138 yards and a touchdown.  Finally Ryan Grant had 156 yards rushing and a touchdown for the Packers in their win over Oakland. 

Game of the Week:  Pretty hard not to go with the Lions and Cowboys.  The Lions had a 27-14 lead entering the 4th quarter.  They were still sitting pretty at 27-21 with Jason Hanson poised to put the Lions up 9 points.  However, he missed his field goal and the Cowboys produced two game winning drives.  The first drive prematurely ended with Jason Witten fumbling on the one-yard line.  The Lions gave the ball back to the Cowboys with a little over 2 minutes left in the game and no timeouts.  They allowed Dallas to march the field and Witten scored the go ahead touchdown with less than :20 seconds to play. 

Loser of the Weak:  Kansas City for starters.  How does a team lose 41-7 to a Denver team in the midst of a 2 game losing streak and coming off a 14-point loss at Oakland.  Rushing 16 times for 17 yards against arguably the worst run defense in the league will help make that happen.  Kurt Warner.  5 sacks and 5 interceptions in a game where you are fighting for a shot at the division is inexcusable.  He has played in too many big games to come up that small.  Pittsburgh.  Keep your second string safety in check before you start spouting off to the big boys.  That was a team that did way too much talking this week and was not ready to play a team like New England on the road.  Finally Miami.  I understand they are not a very good football team, but they are not 21 points worse that Buffalo.  You would hope to get more heart out of a team looking for their first win of the season in December and on a 16 game losing streak. 

The Bay of Pigs:  There really wasn’t the game that was low scoring and turnover infested on both sides.  The Giants played a 16-13 game with the Eagles, but that was a fairly exciting contest.  Chicago and Washington wasn’t the most exciting game, but the Redskins played admirably considering they were attending a funeral on Monday and were playing on a short week.  So I’m going to go with Cincinnati and St Louis.  This was a game where you thought both teams could have gotten into the 30s or 40s at the beginning of the season.  Instead, neither starting QB passed for over 200 yards nor did either QB throw a touchdown.  For Berlin that is understandable, for Palmer it is not.  There was also not a 100 yard rusher or receiver.  The Rams managed one field goal on offense and a defensive touchdown.  Cincinnati settled for one touchdown and 4 field goals.  Not exactly the most exciting game you’ve ever seen. 

The Cam Cameron Award (Excellence in Coaching):  There were two that stuck out for me.  Honorable mention to Sean Payton.  For the second time on a Monday night game I have watched him go for it on 4th and 1 in his own territory and for the second time I have not seen it work.  The only thing is that Atlanta wasn’t good enough to capitalize.  There is a difference between being aggressive and foolish.  That offensive line does not get a good enough push on a consistent basis to run in that situation.  Especially not in his own territory.  However, my winner is the Man Genius in NY.  He had pulled to within 2 points with under a minute to play and all his timeouts.  Instead of kicking the ball of and asking his defense to make the stop, he attempted an onside kick.  Problem is that he attempted a successful one earlier in the half.  The chances of recovering a second one were pretty small and they did have all three timeouts.  Trailing by a field goal, the correct call is to kick the ball off and play defense.  Still, with a 3-9 squad, teams will tend to do things like that at the end of a lost season.  The decision did not cost the Jets valuable playoff positioning. 

Hospital Visit:  There were a lot of key injuries this weekend.  Brett Favre made his 250th consecutive start this weekend but did #### up his knee.  Add that to a sore shoulder and elbow when he goes for his 251st consecutive start in St Louis.  Reggie Bush’s season appears to be over with a ligament tear to his knee.  Sean Merriman is expected to miss multiple games with his knee injury.  Jeff Garcia is expected to be back in the starting lineup.  Kyle Orton will earn a start with Grossman injured and the playoff chances in shambles for the Bears.  Finally, Bills safety George Wilson will miss the rest of the regular season, which is huge seeing they will be playing the Browns this weekend.  That game is important for wild card positioning and Cleveland throws the ball downfield with excellent success. 

Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:

1) How about that Packer running game –  I think it is time to dispel the myth that the Packer’s can’t run the football.  They have clearly found their answer.  Since being inserted into the starting lineup back in week 8, Ryan Grant has rushed for 717 yards and 5 rushing touchdowns.  In that same time span LT has rushed for 668 yards and 6 rushing touchdowns.  In fact, those 717 yards lead the league since week 8.  Over a 16 game schedule that would translate into 1638 yards and 11.4 rushing touchdowns.  I’m not going to anoint the Packers the Kings of Black and Blue football.  I’m not comparing Ryan Grant to LT.  The Packers will still win their games throwing the football.  The Oakland Raiders aren’t exactly the stoutest run defense in the NFL this year.  But this is Grant’s 4th 100-yard game since Week 8 and he has scored a rushing touchdown in 3 straight games and 4 of his last 5 games.  Before Grant became the starter, the Packers were only averaging 23.6 points per game.  They were a one-dimensional unit and the Bears and Redskins gave them fits in back to back weeks.  Since Grant has been named the starter, the result has been a scoring average that has jumped to 31.2 points per game.    The Patriot are averaging 39 points per game in their last 7 games and the Cowboys are averaging 31.4 in the same span.   That shows what Grant has brought to this offense.  Ryan Grant is clearly making a difference and this is bad news for the NFL.  As long as Grant is running the ball consistently, the Packers will be able to excel in the bad weather at Lambeau Field and Favre’s play action passing will be deadly.  The Packers are beginning to click on all cylinders on the offensive side of the ball.  While Dallas and New England have proven to be the class of each conference, the Packers are positioning themselves for a nice playoff run come January.

2) New England and Miami’s quest for perfection – New England’s last obstacle to perfection was disposed of 34-13 on Sunday.  I can’t see them losing to the NY Jets and Miami Dolphins in the next two weeks.  Especially with all the motivation Shula and the Man Genius have provided this season.   Unless the Patriots trip over their own feet, 15-0 appears to be a reality.  The NY Giants could beat the Patriots in Week 17.  However, the other issue is that the NY Giants can no longer win their division and have a 2 game lead in the wild card with 3 games to play.  Week 17 will probably mean nothing to them and Tom Coughlin would be foolish to not rest his players with an opening round wildcard game on the horizon a week after.  His job is not to stop history.  His job is to have the Giants ready to win an opening round game.  New England could play their starters for a half against New York’s backups and seal the deal by the half.  The Hood will not rest his guys an entire game with a week bye on the horizon and history in the grasp.  Therefore, I would be shocked if the Patriots do not finish 16-0.  Still, I don’t think they are a lock to make the Super Bowl.  While the Patriots will clearly be the favorite, Indianapolis definitely poses a serious threat to New England making the Super Bowl.  I think Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and San Diego have enough talent to beat New England if they play a perfect game and New England stumbles.  Dallas and Green Bay are formidable opponents should the Patriots advance to the Super Bowl.    While 16-0 appears to be a near certainty, 19-0 is another matter.  As far as the Dolphins are concerned, it looks equally bleak for them to win a game.  They only have three opportunities left to get to win number one.  While I have not watched Miami a lot, most of the articles I’m reading say they look like a team that has packed it in.  They are not beating New England in 2 weeks in New England.  That leaves next weeks game against the Ravens and the season finale against Cincinnati, both of which are in Miami.  The Ravens appear to be the best hope.  They are on a 7 game losing streak.  They have a very poor offense and may have quit on their season as well.  Cincinnati has won two of their last 3 games with their loss being in Pittsburgh.  Their passing offense should pose problems for the Dolphins.  Regardless, it has been a season to forget and they are approaching record futility.  They have lost 16 in a row dating back to last season.  They are in position to make that 19 in a row.  The NFL record is 26 in a row set by the Tampa Bay Bucs.  At this rate Miami will also be playing for history next season.  It is hard to believe how far this once proud franchise has fallen.  

3) Watching for next year’s surprises – This is the time to watch for next year’s surprises.  In 2006 Green Bay finished the season winning their last 4 games.  That carried into this season where they are now 11-2.  In 1999 Baltimore started 4-7, before winning 4 of their last 5.  They carried that into 2000 where they went 12-4 and won the Super Bowl as a wildcard.  You can go through every season and see teams that finished the season on a tear and used it as a springboard for the following season.  In particular, I would watch for how Atlanta, Denver, Houston, Kansas City, NY Jets, Oakland, San Fran, and Washington finish 2007.  These are all teams with relatively young signal callers or young squads in general with faint playoff hopes at best.  However, if one of these teams can finish with a bit of a run, it may be a preview of things to come for next season.  The team I will be watching the most carefully is Houston.  I like how that team is progressing.  I think that is a team that could be on the verge of something big next season and must use the end of this season to build that momentum.  Beating division champion hopeful Tampa Bay was a good start to a successful end to the season, even if they do fall short of the playoffs.     

4) Who are the most likely challengers to Dallas, Green Bay, Indy, and New England in the playoffs – There are two teams that I would watch for.  In the AFC I like San Diego, provided Merriman is healthy.  Pittsburgh bothers me with how they play on the road.  Since their Week One road demolition of Cleveland, they have been outscored 95-118 on the road.  They are 1-4, with their sole win at Cincinnati.  They have lost at Arizona, Denver, New England, and NY Jets.  Until they prove they can play as well on the road as they do at home, I can’t see them winning more than an opening round playoff game.  While San Diego is far from Road Warriors, they are 3-4 on the road with wins at Arrowhead, Denver, and Tennessee.  Three of their four road losses are at Green Bay, Jacksonville, and New England.  2 of those losses were by 7 points each.  While it will be tough for anyone to win on the road, San Diego looks like the more capable road team at this point.  Plus LT gives San Diego a chance to win every week.  He is a difference maker.  It is important they pass Pittsburgh so they travel to the Dome in Indy and not the snow in Foxboro.  While Indy won’t be a picnic, I don’t like San Diego in a cold weather game.  In the NFC, I like Seattle.  Tampa just doesn’t score enough.  Seattle’s 315 points ranks 3rd in the NFC.  Their 228 points allowed ranks 2nd and is only 13 points more than Tampa Bay.  While Tampa Bay has the best defense in the NFC at 215 points allowed, their 255 points scored ranks 10th of 16 teams.  Chicago and Washington trail by only 2 points.  The other 4 teams trailing Tampa Bay in scoring have a combined record of 14-38.  Tampa Bay is a nice story, but just doesn’t score the points a team needs to beat offensive juggernauts like Dallas and Green Bay.  Seattle is only 2 years removed from the Super Bowl, has lots of playoff experience, and is the one team in the NFC that has the offensive and defensive balance necessary to compete with the two big teams.  The one thing they lack is a running game.  I would watch for them as a possible dark horse challenger to the top seeds in the AFC and NFC.     

5) The Playoff Picture – Things got a lot clearer this weekend.  In the NFC, Dallas has clinched the NFC East, Green Bay clinched the NFC North, and Seattle clinched the NFC West.  Dallas has a 1 game lead on Green Bay with 3 games to play.  That in reality is two games because of the tiebreaker advantage that goes to Dallas.  Seattle is still 2 games back of Green Bay.  Tampa Bay is also sitting very pretty for the division title, but sits 3 games back of Green Bay.  Tampa Bay needs a win or a New Orleans loss and they clinch the NFC South.  The New York Football Giants have almost clinched at least the #6 seed.  They have a 2 game lead over Minnesota and 3 games over the rest of the field.  The Giants are the safe bet for the 5 seed.  They basically need one more win and a Minnesota loss to make the #5 seed official.  The #6 seed is a little hazy.  Minnesota is the front-runner at 7-6.  Arizona, Detroit, New Orleans, and Washington sit a game back at 6-7.  I think the 5-8 teams are for all intensive purposes eliminated.  With so many teams to jump over, I think it is pretty safe to assume the final wild card will come from Minnesota or the 6-7 group.  In the AFC New England needs one win to clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  Indy has a 2 game lead on Pittsburgh for the #2 seed.  Pittsburgh and Cleveland are separated by a game for the AFC North.  That is actually 2 games with the tiebreaker.  A Pittsburgh win and Cleveland loss gives that division to Pittsburgh.  The Chargers at 8-5 have a 2 game lead over Denver.  They face off in a couple weeks.  In all likely hood San Diego and Pittsburgh will fight it out for the #3 seed.  That is huge, because the winner of that battle avoids New England until the Championship Game.  However, facing Indy isn’t exactly a treat at this point.    Jacksonville is sitting very comfortable for one wild card.  They have tiebreaker over both Buffalo and Denver.  Cleveland at 8-5 is the front-runner for the #6 seed.  Buffalo and Tennessee are a game back of them.  Denver and Houston have a pulse at 6-7, with the loser of their Thursday night matchup being eliminated.   

A Look Ahead:  I went 4-2 on the picks last week.  San Diego pulled out a victory in OT and Chicago lost a close game to Washington.  Here are my important games for next week.  These are not necessarily the 5 best games, but the 5 games that I feel will be the most influential in shaping the various divisions:   

1) Denver (6-7) at Houston (6-7) – Both teams are long shots to make the playoffs.  The loser of this game is a no shot.  Denver is so up and down.  They look like they are ready to take charge and then they lose at Chicago and Oakland.  Then they destroy Kansas City 41-7 in Denver.  A tough division and injuries have destroyed Houston.  Still, they have hung in there and have looked very respectable.  Houston is no longer the equivalent of a bye that they were the last few years.  Denver is 2-4 on the road and Houston is 4-2 at home.  Houston has looked better with Andre Johnson returning to the lineup.  While no Ahman Green hurts, Ron Dayne has been serviceable in his absence.  I look for Houston to win a very competitive game.  Winner:  Houston

2) Buffalo (7-6) at Cleveland (8-5) – Both teams need this game.  Buffalo is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss.  Lack of tiebreakers against Cleveland and Jacksonville would seal their fate.  Cleveland could lose and still make the playoffs, but would be making it more challenging than it should be.  They also have Tennessee to worry about.  Buffalo is the most over appreciated team in the league.  I have heard people say that #### Jauron is possibly the Coach of the Year.  Their record is the result of 4 wins against Miami and NY Jets.  They also have wins against Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Washington.  The records of the teams they have beaten are 21-70.  None have a winning record.  New England destroyed them twice.  Jacksonville and Pittsburgh did as well.  Dallas played them close due to a slew of miscues.  I’m just not impressed.  If Cleveland is a playoff team, this is a game that playoff teams win.  Buffalo is one of the 10 worst teams in terms of talent, despite what their record says.  They are fortunate to play with Miami and New York and are fortunate to have had their schedule.  Playoff teams destroy inferior teams like Buffalo at home.  Cleveland is 5-1 at home this season and 5-0 since the opener.  They have tremendous offensive balance right now.  I like Cleveland and I like Cleveland big.  Winner: Cleveland

3) Arizona (6-7) at New Orleans (6-7) – This is another elimination game for two teams with an outside shot at the playoffs.  This is not so much picking for New Orleans as against Arizona.  Arizona is really hurting at starting wide receiver, which is the strength of the offense.  They need those receivers at full strength to exploit New Orleans’s weakness, which is the pass defense.  Arizona is also 2-5 on the road, which also makes them difficult to pick in this spot.  New Orleans has underachieved all season and should not be in this position.  However, I like New Orleans to survive for another week.  Winner: New Orleans

4) Jacksonville (9-4) at Pittsburgh (9-4) – This is a very tough game to pick.  Pittsburgh has not looked strong in recent weeks and Jacksonville is playing very well.  Jacksonville is a very respectable 4-2 on the road this season.  However, Pittsburgh is a great home team at 7-0.  No obvious winner in that spot.  I like Pittsburgh in this spot, because they are at home.  Jacksonville stops the run well, but Pittsburgh has the weapons in the passing game to move the ball against the Jacksonville pass defense.  Pittsburgh is 3-0 after a loss this season.   I would expect that trend to continue.  Winner: Pittsburgh

5) Washington (6-7) at New York Giants (9-4) – Washington still controls their own destiny.  If they win out, they would finish 9-7.  That would guarantee them to be at least tied for the #6 seed.  They would have tiebreakers over 7-6 Minnesota, 6-7 Detroit, and 6-7 Arizona.  While a 3-way tie could cause them problems, they would be in a good spot if they tie one team.  The New York Giants need to win this game to get the #5 seed.  That is probably the difference between traveling to Tampa Bay instead of Seattle.  Tampa Bay would definitely be the more desirable match up, especially given New York’s issues in the secondary.  All that being said, I don’t like Washington’s chances with Todd Collins at the helm.  Jason Campbell was not playing at an All-Pro level, but he was playing well enough.  While Collins looked good against Chicago and knows this offense as well as anyone, I don’t see this as being a positive development.  It is just another setback for the Redskins.  While the Giants are only 3-3 at home, two of those losses were to Dallas and Green Bay.  Washington is only 2-4 on the road.  I like the NY Giants to win a game similar to the one they won against Philly this week. Winner: NY Giants

That’s all for this week.  It is a pretty slow week in terms of devoting an article to one matchup.  Talking about how great the Patriots are and how bad the Dolphins are is getting old.  I definitely don’t want to talk about the legal problems with Michael Vick.  Instead I’m going to look at his situation from a football perspective.  I will look at his strengths and weaknesses over his NFL career.  I’ll look at some key players that took a year or more off for non-injury related issues.  Finally, I’ll try to look 2-3 years ahead and see what teams might have a possible opening for Michael Vick.    I look forward to hearing your comments.

New England survived a second consecutive scare and won a game that Baltimore should have won had it not been for a huge meltdown caused by questionable penalties and a lack of intelligence or execution.  The Patriots are three fourths of the way to perfection.  Dallas won the Game of the Century, Part III and became the second team in the 2007 season to clinch a playoff birth.  Meanwhile, Miami lost their best chance to gain a victory this season.  They are three fourths of the way to perfect imperfection.  If I didn't mention your favorite player or team, it isn't because I didn't watch the game or research the game.  It's because it would be impossible to mention every player or game in one newsletter.  Please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team.  Simply mention it in the comments section, and I will try to address it.  I hereby present to you a recap of the thirteen week in the National Football League. 

Standings
 

AFC East                                NFC East
1.New England (12-0)**      1.Dallas (11-1)*
2.Buffalo (6-6)                        2.NY Giants (8-4)
3.NY Jets (3-9)                       3.Washington (5-7)
4. Miami (0-12)                       4.Philadelphia (5-7) 

 AFC South                              NFC South
1.Indianapolis (10-2)            1. Tampa Bay (8-4)
2. Jacksonville (8-4)              2. New Orleans (5-7)
3. Tennessee (7-5)               3. Carolina (5-7)
4. Houston (5-7)                     4. Atlanta (3-9)

 AFC North                              NFC North
1.Pittsburgh (9-3)                  1.Green Bay (10-2)
2.Cleveland (7-5)                  2.Detroit (6-6)
3.Cincinnati (4-8)                  3. Minnesota (6-6)
4.Baltimore (4-8)                   4.Chicago (5-7)

 AFC West                             NFC West
1. San Diego (7-5)                1. Seattle (8-4)
2. Denver (5-7)                      2.Arizona (6-6)
3. Kansas City (4-8)             3. San Francisco (3-9)
4. Oakland (4-8)                    4. St Louis (3-9)
 
**Clinched Division
* Clinched Playoff Spot

MVP of the Week:  I would start with Tony Romo who rose to the occasion and had 309 yards and 4 touchdowns in the victory over Green Bay.  Honorable mentions to Peyton Manning who had 288 yards and 4 touchdowns in the Colt’s huge victory over Jacksonville.  LT had 177 yards and 2 touchdowns over Kansas City.  Reggie Wayne, TO, and Joey Galloway all had over 150 yards receiving with Wayne and TO adding a touchdown.  Finally Lofa Tatupu, who had 11 tackles and 3 interceptions in Seattle’s victory over Philly.

Game of the Week:  This would probably be the hardest week for me to pick.  Dallas and Green Bay had a great start to the week.  The Packers were down 27-10 after 5 possessions and Favre was knocked out of the game.  Aaron Rodgers had the game at 27-24 entering the 4th quarter.  That would prove to be a 37-27 Dallas victory.  AJ Feeley threw his 4th pick near the Seattle endzone to seal a 28-24 victory for the Seahawks.  The Giants and Bears played an exciting 21-16 game in Chicago.  Rex Grossman had a few Hail Marys from the Giants 30 yard line that were unsuccessful.  Buffalo and Washington was decided on a game winning field goal for Buffalo.  Tampa and New Orleans was decided bay a touchdown with just 17 seconds left in a bizarre ending to that game.  But the winner was the Patriots and Ravens on Monday Night.  For the second straight week a 20-point underdog found a way to stay in the game until the final seconds.  The last drive featured two fourth down conversions, one of which was by penalty.  The Patriots capitalized on penalties and Raven’s meltdowns to keep perfection alive.

Loser of the Weak:  The Detroit Lions.  Playoff teams can’t lose 42-10 in the midst of a 3 game losing streak at Minnesota.  Miami Dolphins.  Winless teams can’t lose 40-13 in their most winnable game left in the season.    AJ Feeley who had one touchdown and 4 interceptions in a home loss to Seattle.  Backup or starter; 3 picks to Lofa Tatupu is not an acceptable performance.  Denver Broncos.  Playoff hopefuls do not lose at Oakland by 2 touchdowns.  Finally, the Officials and Ravens Defense.  Officials are like small children.  Other than the Head Referee, they should be seen and not heard.  Their questionable calls and chatter with the Ravens was embarrassing and needs to be addressed.  I’m not buying into the conspiracy theory that the league wants the Patriots to go 16-0.  Still you don’t want situations that create the appearance of impropriety.  The questionable calls didn’t create that as much as the unnecessary chatter with the Ravens players.  It made it look like the calls were becoming personal rather than objective, whether or not that was actually the case.  Bart Scott throwing a flag into the stands and having 30 of the Ravens 35 yards of penalties was equally a joke.  Evidently it wasn’t important that offense get the ball in good field position a big spot.  That reaction showed me one thing.  The defense does not acknowledge that the offense is even part of that team.  If they had, they wouldn’t have gotten 35 yards in penalties.  Whether that attitude is justified is another question.  It looked clear to me that Brian Billick has lost his team and that a change would probably do both parties well. 

The Bay of Pigs:  I’m not going to name one this week.  The only candidate would be the Buffalo and Washington game.  I respect what the Redskins did in just taking the field in the most difficult of circumstances.  The Sean Taylor homicide last week with a looming funeral on Monday followed by a Thursday Night Game this week made playing that game a very difficult challenge.  They handled that as well as could be expected.    

The Cam Cameron Award (Excellence in Coaching):  I have a lot of candidates this week.  1) Joe Gibbs calling 2 consecutive timeouts.  That is a 15-yard penalty and resulted in Buffalo having a 36-yard field goal instead of a 51-yard attempt.  Gibbs was a class act after the game and took full responsibility for the mistake, 2) Tom Coughlin.  He won the game, but Chicago had 3 attempts at the endzone, because he elected to score a touchdown with 1:33 instead of taking the knee at the 1-yard line and depleting the Bears of both time and timeouts.  Then he didn’t go for 2 points that would have made it a 6-point game instead of a 5-point game.  Apparently he feel the extra point is a formality for the Bears, but a field goal from the same distance is too risky for his squad. I instantly became a Bears fans because I hate seeing stupidity rewarded, 3) Sean Payton.  Can’t call a half back reverse gadget play late in the game trying to run out the clock with a lead.  The result was a Reggie Bush turnover and new life for the Bucs. 4) Finally, Brian Billick.  Not so much for his timeout that negated a 4th down stop of the Patriots.  That could happen to anyone.  It was unfortunate.  The real problem is that he was unable to keep his defense together after that.  That final drive demonstrated the lack of cohesion between Offense, Defense, and Coaching Staff.  As I stated above, that is a team in desperate need of a change at the top.

Hospital Visit:  Steve McNair is in need of shoulder surgery.  He is out for the season and his career is definitely at a crossroads.  Roy Williams is expected to be out for the season with a sprained knee.  Dolphins safety Cameron Worrell is out for the season with an ACL tear.  Derrick Ward broke his leg in the Giants game and is out indefinitely.  Jeff Garcia has no structural damage to his back.  He is questionable to play against Houston next week.  Finally, Brett Favre separated his left shoulder and bruised his elbow.  He is expected to make his 250th consecutive start this week against the Raiders. 

Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:

1) What is happening to the Detroit Lions? –  This was a team that was the product of a favorable opening schedule.  They played 2 games against the Bears.  They played Minnesota early in the season with a young QB.  Oakland and Denver were nice opponents.  Tampa is really their only solid win.  Since the 6-2 start they have played Arizona, NY Giants, Green Bay, and Minnesota.  Four consecutive games against playoff contenders.  The result has been a 0-4 stretch where they have been outscored by an average score of 31.5 to 16.  They have allowed over 30 points in 3 of the 4 games.  They have lost by 10 plus points in 3 of the 4 games.  Simply put, Detroit was very fortunate at the beginning of the season.  They won an OT game against Minnesota at home.  They scored 34 points in the 4th quarter against Chicago.  They picked Griese 7 times in those two wins.  They also created their own fortune in their blowout win over Denver and their close victory over Tampa Bay.   The problem for the Lions is they are 2-4 on the road as compared to 4-2 at home.  Their last 2 home games have been to (8-4) NY Giants and (10-2) Green Bay.  Hence, the 4 game losing streak.  Detroit has made a lot of strides since last season.  They are competitive and relevant.  They have a chance to not have 10 losses this season and a chance to win 8 games.  However, they are not a playoff team.  They can’t run the football, they turn the ball over too much, they don’t protect the QB, and they can’t stop the pass.  As of late, they aren’t stopping the run either.  Detroit is a good story and is finally headed in the right direction for the first time since Barry Sanders retired and Matt Millen took over.  However, they are still not a playoff team.

2) Can Jacksonville Challenge the Top 3 in the AFC? – No really.  They just don’t have enough explosion in the offensive part of the game to contend with these three teams.  They have a fantastic defense, they run the ball well, and they don’t make many mistakes.  Garrard had his first pick of the season this week.  They play good teams tough because they are as physical as any team in the league.  However, they just don’t score enough. They rank 14th in scoring offense.  That will be enough to beat the Texans, Titans, Broncos, and some of the other teams on their schedule.  However, good offense usually beats good defense.  To beat the Colts, Patriots, and Steelers teams usually have to score 30 points to beat those teams.  The Jags have scored over 30 points just twice this season, against Buffalo and Denver.  Furthermore, the Colts, Patriots, and Steelers all have respectable to great defenses.  Jacksonville will be a tough out and if one of those three teams overlooks the Jags, the Jags could make them pay in a single elimination situation.  While they should make the playoffs and win a first round playoff game, I can’t see them seriously challenging the top three teams in the AFC.

3)  Previewing Pittsburgh (9-3) at New England (12-0) – This is a fascinating matchup. The Patriots have not been the same team they were in their first 8 ballgames.  They have scored 24, 56, 31, and 27 points in their last four contest.  The Colts game was decided by 4 points.  Fair enough, the Colts are arguably the 2nd best team in the NFL.  The Bills was the expected blowout.  But the Eagles are 5-7 and the Ravens are 4-8.  These are games the Patriots are supposed to win.  It hasn’t so much been the offense that is troubling.  Those point totals are great by most team’s standards.  It’s the 20.5 points per game the defense is allowing.  Is this simply a matter of a team with nothing left to play for losing its focus?  Possibly, but the Patriots defense is definitely not scaring people in recent weeks.  The 24 points the Ravens scored on Monday was their third highest total of the season.  This was an offense that had scored 14 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games.  The defense will have to play better against the Steelers if they want to win this week.  On the Steelers side it is very simple.  They have the running back to attack the Patriots.  Miller is good at stretching the middle of the field.  Ward and Washington are good targets.  Big Ben can win big games.  The Steelers are 7-0 on the road as opposed to 2-3 on the road.  This game is in Foxboro.  Are the Steelers good enough to go on the road and beat a quality team?  So far they have losses at Arizona, Denver, and the NY Jets.  The Steelers will not only need to play their very best game of the season, but do so in an environment they have not thrived in this season.  I look for the game to similar to the Colts game and in the 20s.  While I would not be surprised if Pittsburgh won the contest, until they prove they can play well on the road, I am going with the Patriots. 

4) Is Minnesota the front-runner for the NFC’s #6 seed – They definitely are one of the hottest team in the NFC.  Dallas has won 6 games in a row.  Seattle and Tampa Bay have won 4 in a row.  Minnesota is next in line with 3 in a row.  Outside of the division leaders, they are playing as well as any of the wild card contenders.  The schedule sets up fairly well for the Vikings.  They play the 49ers on the road.  Bears and Redskins at home.  They finish at Denver.  None of these teams have a winning record.  Their combined winning percentage is .375.  Those 4 teams rank 26th, 27th, 10th, and 31st against the run.  That does not bode well for the opposition.  Furthermore, 3 of the Vikings 6 losses are to the Packers and Cowboys.  They were in two of those 3 games.  If they had an easier schedule or division they could easily be 8-4 right now.  If you take the 34-0 beat down the Packers gave the Vikings at Lambeau, there 5 losses are by 30 points or 6 points per contest.  This is a young team that has played competitive and is learning to win at the right time.  None of the other 5 NFC playoff teams wants to see Adrian Peterson in the playoffs.  He is a guy that could bust out for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns in a playoff game and knock out a better team in the playoffs.  The key is that Jackson is starting to throw the ball a lot better than he was at the beginning of the season.  While he is not going to be confused for one of the top QBs in the league, he has a plus 100 rating in his last 2 games.  He also has only one interception.  I look for the Vikings to get to 9-7, which is a lot better than I had them pegged for at the beginning of the season.  Detroit and Arizona are their main remaining competition for the #6 seed.  Detroit is in a 4 game tailspin and has a brutal schedule left that features Dallas, Green Bay, and San Diego.  Arizona has Seattle and New Orleans, but closes with Atlanta and St Louis.  I believe that Arizona and Minnesota set up the best to make a run for that #6 seed.

5) The Playoff Picture – The NFC started to clear up a lot after this week.  Three of the four divisions appear to be sealed.  Dallas needs one win in their next four games to clinch the East and two games to clinch homefield advantage.  They have a one game lead over Green Bay with tiebreaker for home field advantage.  Green Bay needs one victory in their next four to clinch the North.  They have a 2 game lead over Seattle and Tampa for a first round bye.  Tampa has basically won the NFC South.  They have a two game lead and tiebreakers over New Orleans and a week 17 matchup at home against fading Carolina.    It will take a monumental collapse by Dallas, Green Bay, or Tampa Bay will be needed for the challengers to catch them.  The only division with intrigue is the NFC West.  Seattle has a 2 game lead over Arizona.  This Sunday’s game between the two will decide whether Seattle wins the division or if we have a race to the finish.  The NY Giants have a 2 game lead in the wildcard and appear to be in great position for one wildcard.   The Cardinals, Lions, and Vikings are all 6-6.  Four teams are further back at 5-7.  In the AFC the Patriots have clinched the division and are two victories away from clinching the number one seed.  Pittsburgh and Indianapolis have two game leads with tiebreakers over Cleveland and Jacksonville.  Those divisions appear to be over with those two teams fighting for the other first round bye.  San Diego has opened up a 2 game lead over Denver and 3 game lead over Kansas City and Oakland.  There is a week 16 matchup between Denver and San Diego looming, but Denver will have to win out in order for that game to matter.  Jacksonville at 8-4 is still in solid position for the first wildcard.  Tennessee and Cleveland are still solid at 7-5 and will battle for the final wildcard.  Buffalo is trailing at 6-6 with a host of teams sitting at 5-7.  These teams are long shots should the frontrunners falter.

A Look Ahead:  I went 3-3 on the picks last week.  Green Bay did not do as well as I hoped in Dallas, Cleveland lost a close game in The Desert, and the Lions have failed me for the last time.  Here are my important games for next week other than Pittsburgh and New England, which I discussed above.  These are not necessarily the 5 best games, but the 5 games that I feel will be the most influential in shaping the various divisions:   

1) Chicago (5-7) at Washington (5-7) – An elimination game for two teams that were basically eliminated with losses last week.  With so many teams jumbled together teams are going to find it difficult to make up 2 game deficits when that includes jumping over 6 or 7 teams.  This is a tough spot for Washington.  They just had an emotional week with the death of Sean Taylor.  They lost an emotional game at home to Buffalo.  They attended a funeral on Monday and now have to get ready to play a Thursday night game.  Chicago has not been able to string together consecutive wins this season.  Since Week 4 Chicago has alternated wins and losses.  If the pattern holds true, this is their week to win.  I look for Chicago to win a low scoring game and keep their faint playoff hopes alive.  Winner:  Chicago

2) Dallas (11-1) at Detroit (6-6) – Detroit needs a win badly.  6-2 seems like a long time ago.  They have dropped 4 consecutive games.  They are allowing teams to gash them with the run and pass.  They are giving up a ton of points.  That isn’t a spot where you want to try to fix that against Dallas.  The game is at home and Detroit plays well at home.  Dallas is in a class of their own.  I look for Dallas to officially clinch the NFC East and moved one game closer to home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  Winner: Dallas

3) New York Giants (8-4) at Philadelphia (5-7) – If the NY Giants win this game, they would have seemed to weather the second half slide.  9-4 sets up very well for them to earn one of the two wildcards.  They would basically have to lose out their last 3 games and have both Arizona and Minnesota win out.  With the Redskins and Bills still on the Giant’s horizon, that seems unlikely.  For Philadelphia, they are still alive in the playoff hunt.  They have tiebreakers with Detroit.  They have to win this game.  A win here gives them a split with both Washington and NY Giants.  It stops a 2 game losing streak.  Playoff teams can’t lose 3 games in a row in November and December.  Furthermore, the Eagles have a tough road to go.  With games at Dallas, at New Orleans, before closing out against the Bills, this doesn’t look like a team capable of running the table.  Neither team screams pick me with their recent play on the field.  Seeing Philly has 7 interceptions in their last 2 games and McNabb’s health is still in doubt, I’ll go with the Giants.  Eli is actually playing better than someone for a change.  Winner: NY Giants

4) San Diego (7-5) at Tennessee (7-5) – Haynesworth comes back and the Titans win. Interesting how that works.  This game comes down to location.  The Chargers are 2-4 on the road as opposed to 5-1 at home.  Their only 2 wins are against that sorry excuse for a division known as the AFC West.  In their 4 road games out of division, they have been outscored by an average score of 32-18.  Tennessee is 4-2 at home.  One loss was to the Colts by two points back in week 2.  The other was a blowout by Jacksonville without Haynesworth.  I have learned this season to not pick the Chargers to beat anyone outside their division on the road.  I have also learned that Tennessee is a force to be reckoned with so long as they have the big man in the middle of the D line.  I look for this game to be very similar to the Jacksonville game where the Chargers lost 24-17.  Winner: Tennessee

5) Arizona (6-6) at Seattle (8-4) – If Seattle wins, they clinch the NFC West.  They would have a split with Arizona without the burden of two divisional losses to San Francisco.  A 3 game lead with 3 games to play and tiebreaker seals the deal.  If Arizona misses the playoffs, they will look back at those two 49ers losses and shake their head.  This is another location game.  Seattle is 5-1 at home and Arizona is 2-4 on the road.  Seattle’s defense is forcing turnovers and sacking the QB.  That is not a good thing when Warner is the QB.  Seattle is also passing the ball very well and is starting to get healthy.  The Cardinals are 11th against the run, but 24th against the pass.  That is not a good recipe for beating Seattle either.  I like the matchups for Seattle.  I like the location for Seattle.  I look for Seattle to clinch this division.  Winner: Seattle

That’s all for this week.  This week in addition to my normal newsletter, I will take a look at New England’s historical 12-0 start and compare it to other great 12 game starts.  I had promised that article after I did the 6-0 article and I am a person of my word.   I look forward to hearing your comments.