This is my sixth of eight NFL division previews. While there is still over a month until training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here is my planned schedule. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.

a) AFC East 

b) NFC East 

c) AFC South 

d) NFC South 

g) AFC West 

h) NFC West

The NFC North is a division that has some of the oldest rivalries in the NFL. The Bears, Lions, and Packers are among the original NFL franchises and each have a storied history. The Minnesota Vikings did not join the league until the 1960s, but have assimilated well into the division’s rivalries. This year marks the first time since 1992 that a certain Hall of Fame QB in Green Bay will not be taking the field. The Packers have been the dominant team in the division since Favre became their quarterback. The Packers won 7 divisional titles in his tenure with Green Bay and won over 60% of their divisional games. Which team seizes control of the division going forward is going to be a very interesting development.

Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the NFC North.

1) Minnesota Vikings

07 Record: 8-8

Points Scored: 365(15th)

Points Allowed: 311 (12th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 141-115 (.551) (4th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Minnesota Vikings were the best in the league at running the football and they were the best in the league at stopping the run.

Let’s start with the offense. Adrian Peterson had a tremendous season. He rushed for 1,341 yards and 12 touchdowns despite only starting 9 games. He was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Included in that mammoth total was a 296-yard rushing performance against San Diego, which set a NFL record for rushing yards in a single game. He also had a 224- yard game against the Chicago Bears. The key for him will be having more consistency and doing better with 8 men in the box. In his final 4 games he was held to 54 carries and a 144 yards, which is 2.7 yards per carry. Part of that was his coming back from injury, but part of it was defenses concentrating on him more than they did in the first half of the season.

Chester Taylor also had a fine season. He rushed for 844 yards and 7 touchdowns. Minnesota and Jacksonville easily have the best running back duos in the NFL.

While Peterson and Taylor are good, the line is one of the best in the business. McKinney and Hutchinson make up the left side of the line and Birk is a tremendous center. It is imperative that McKinnie not be suspended for his disorderly conduct and resisting arrest charges that are still pending in a Miami courtroom.

On defense the Vikings may have the best front 4 in football. Pat and Kevin Williams are two mammoth defensive tackles that stop the run extremely well. New to the mix is Jared Allen, acquired in a trade with Kansas City. He had 15.5 sacks in 14 games last season. He gives them the pass rusher they sorely missed last season. That should help the Vikings improve on their 32nd ranked pass defense.

On special teams Ryan Longwell is a steady and reliable kicker. It remains to be seen if the Vikings will continue to use Peterson as a return man.

Weaknesses: For as good as the Vikings were running the ball and stopping the run, they were equally bad passing the ball and stopping the pass.

Let’s start with the pass defense. It was ranked 32nd last year, but the Vikings have addressed that. Allen should help out with that. They also signed Madieu Williams and Michael Boulware to help at the safety spot. Finally they drafted Tyrell Johnson to help in the secondary. If Sharper, Winfield, and Griffin can raise their level of play and Allen give them the pass rush they have lacked the pass defense should be much improved in 2008. They forced a lot of turnovers in 2007. Now they just need to stop people from catching the ball.

That leaves the passing game. The Vikings ranked 32nd in pass attempts, 28th in passing yards, and 29th in passing touchdowns. They got 3rd receiver type production out of their number one and number two receivers. Darrell Bevell said this about the Tarvaris Jackson, the Vikings 3rd year QB, “"He's been outstanding this offseason," Bevell said. "He's been in here watching, studying. He's been out here training, trying to get better at the things he needs to get better at, and I couldn't ask for anything more from him."

Jackson is the key to the 2008 season for the Vikings and that is an excellent sign. The Vikings need to get more production out of their pass game. Jackson progressed well in year 2 and if the Vikings are going to contend for the playoffs and possibly advance to a Super Bowl they need him to progress even more.

Even if Jackson is improving, the Vikings still have a weak receiving core. Bernard Berrian will help, but he is by no means a proven number one receiver even though he is being paid like one. Sidney Rice showed promise as a rookie, but still needs to develop. Bobby Wade and Robert Ferguson are journeymen players. The Vikings have a lot of #2 and #3 receivers, but nobody that screams dominant number one guy. Berrian and Rice are the most likely on the roster to emerge.

Prediction: I think the Vikings are in position to grab control of this division. They have the best offensive player in the division in Peterson. The defensive line is probably the best in the NFL. They have a great offensive line. All the pieces are in place to win the division and compete in the NFC.

The question mark is the quarterback and the passing game. If Jackson were a proven commodity I would say the Vikings would be the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. The problem is they were 1st in rush offense and defense a year ago and that got them 8-8. The Vikings need production in the passing game and can only go as far as he takes them.

The schedule looks tougher than it really is. The Vikings caught a number of breaks. The 13-3 Packers are factored into their strength of schedule twice. Few people are thinking the Packers will repeat that record. They drew no cold weather sites in November and December, which is something the Vikings traditionally struggle with. They face the easier part of the schedule in the second half of the season. They play Chicago, at Detroit, at Arizona, and Houston from Week 13-16 before closing with the NY Giants at home. That bodes well for them taking control of the division with a late season surge.

I look for the Vikings to make the playoffs for the first time since 2004. I think they will win the NFC North for the first time in their franchise history and their first divisional title since their NFC Central crown back in 2000.

Minnesota Vikings’ Record: 11-5 – NFC North Divisional Champion; NFC #2 Seed

2) Green Bay Packers

07 Record: 13-3

Points Scored: 435 (4th)

Points Allowed: 291 (6th)

Playoff Result: Lost NFC Championship Game

2008 Strength of Schedule: 136-120 (.531) (11th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Packers had an unbelievably balanced team in 2007. They finished 4th in points scored and 6th in points allowed. Favre had an impressive season, finishing 2nd in the MVP race. Grant had the most yards of any back in the NFL not named Tomlinson in the second half of the regular season. Mason Cosby finished 2nd in the Pro Bowl voting at kicker. Other than at Chicago, Ryan did a decent job of punting. Even the special teams gave good contributions in the return game. Robinson and Williams were strong in that regard.

There were few changes that needed to be made and people assumed #4 would come back for a final title run. However, that changed on March 4, 2008 and now one player leaving has created a lot of questions. It is hard to judge the Packers 2008 chances with such a key member of their offense gone. What the Packers should still be able to expect is a good defense. That starts with the front 7 and the corners.

The Packers have an extremely deep defensive line. Kampan is a great pass rusher that supports the run well. Jenkins does well at stopping the run and moves to DT on passing downs. KGB, Jolly, Harrell and others provide good depth.

The linebackers support the run well, but they struggle to cover the pass and in particular the tight end. That should improve simply by not facing Gates, Gonzalez, and Shockey this season. Still, there are good tight ends on the schedule and they need to improve in that area. Barnett is always solid and Hawk is on the verge of making a Pro Bowl.

The secondary is a mixed bag. Harris and Woodson may be the best corner duo in the NFL. They are extremely physical. While they draw a lot of interference calls they make up for it with picks, stopping 3rd downs, and wearing down receivers. However, both are over 30 years old. Bigby had an up and down first year starting, but ended up being the NFC Defensive Player of the Month in December and was lights out in the playoffs. He needs to play like he did at the end of the year. The Packers have issues at their other safety spot and in nickel and dime packages. They need players to step up there.

All in all this is a very young defensive unit other than the corners. This defense is going to have to carry the load in 2008 while the offense adjusts, something they should be capable of doing in a lot of games.

Weaknesses: It’s been a long time since we said the offense was the weakness of the Green Bay Packers. That is where the Pack finds themselves in 2008. I don’t want to come across as having the mentality that there is no life after Favre. He had a lot of help last year and I like a lot of things the Packers have going on offense. But I also think people need to understand how key he was to what the Packers did. To assume a 4th year QB that has yet to start a NFL game can just step in and keep the ball rolling is not realistic. It is not fair to Aaron Rodgers.

With regards to Rodgers, he may very well end up being a great quarterback. As a Packer fan I hope he does. But one good half of football is too small of a sample to say he is definitely going to succeed. Throw out the Dallas game, it means nothing. I like how he has progressed in making reads and his command of the offense since his rookie year. That was showing the entire 2007 preseason. What I am worried about is his durability. The injuries have been freakish in nature, but it is a bad omen to be injured as the NFL’s all time most durable starting quarterback’s backup. Brian Braum is a promising prospect, but not ready to carry this offense as a rookie.

The receivers are solid and the strength of the offense. They are great athletes and ranked number one in yards after the catch. Driver is a veteran presence, Jennings looks to be an up and comer, and Jones, Martin, and Nelson all provide good depth. Lee had a good year at tight end. There is a lot of talent there that will help Rodgers make the transition.

Remember that the yards after the catch they were getting were partially the result of teams being scared of #4’s ability to throw the deep ball. Those same cushions are not going to be there until teams respect Rodger’s deep ball. I expect those guys to be solid and put up good numbers, but not be as explosive down the field or in yards after the catch as they were in 2007.

The offensive line is interesting. The tackles are good, but they are very young at guard and center. The line gelled well as the season progressed and became a strength of the team. Part of the reason that the Packers could go so many 4 and 5 wide receiver sets is because of #4’s command of the offense and his ability to get rid of the ball quickly. The Packers surrendered only 19 sacks, tied for 3rd in the NFL. The quicker Rodgers can get rid of the ball, the more 4 and 5 receiver sets they can use to take advantage of the talent they have at receiver.

Finally, we get to the running back. Who is the real Ryan Grant? Is he the back that had 201 yards and 3 touchdowns against Seattle or the one that had 29 yards and 0 touchdowns against the Giants? 1 would have had the same questions with Favre coming back. 10 games are not enough to anoint a guy a star running back. The Packers are going to try to feature him in the offense to take pressure of Rodgers and he is going to have to prove he can handle the increased attention he will see from defenses. He is perfect for that zone-blocking scheme and I expect him to get over 1,000 yards and 7-9 touchdowns.

Prediction: I find it entertaining how people seem to think the Packers are not going to have problems without Brett Favre in 2008. The mentality that the Packers have a great young team and Rodgers is just ready to step in based on a good half against Dallas.

Since 1992 the Packers have finished in the top 10 in both yards gained and points scored every year other than 1992, 1993, 2002, 2005, and 2006. In 2007 the Packers finished 2nd in passing yards, 4th in points scored, 6th in touchdown passes, and 11th in interceptions thrown.

This is a huge loss. It cannot be overstated. This is not Montana and his 16 touchdown passes retiring from the Chiefs in 1994. This is not Dan Marino and his 11 touchdown passes retiring from the Dolphins in 1999. Those guys are All Time Greats, but were very average at the end of their career. Even if you take out the fact the Packers are losing an All-Time Great player and leader, they are still losing their best offensive player from 2007 at the NFL’s most important position.

There are still a lot of good players on the team. I don’t expect the Packers to bottom out at 4-12 in 2008. The team is going to want to show they can still win and will be motivated to do well without #4. There are plenty of NFL teams in a worse situation.

Had Favre come back, I would have thought 10-6 or 11-5 would be realistic, just based on the tougher schedule. The Packers have a lot of tough games in 2008. They play Dallas, at Seattle, Minnesota twice, at Tampa, at New Orleans, Indy, at Jacksonville, and at Tennessee. I think you are going to see games where they amaze and games where they really struggle. A lack of consistency is what worries me about the Packers. 8-8 and just missing the playoffs is a realistic expectation. They should be able to get back to the playoffs in 2009 if their young players continue to grow and they add more young talent to supplement some of their aging positions at the offensive tackles and cornerback.

Green Bay Packers’ Record: 8-8 – NFC North 2nd Place; No Playoffs

3) Detroit Lions

07 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 346 (16th)

Points Allowed: 444 (32nd)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 139-117 (.543) (10th in NFL)

Strengths: The Lions had a great passing attack under passing guru Mike Martz. He is no longer with the team, but the offense still has plenty of weapons. Jon Kitna is the most established QB in the division and Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, Mike Furrey, and Shaun McDonald give him a lot of weapons. Roy Williams is a solid target and Calvin Johnson is a freak and should have a much better 2nd year now that he has experience and is healthy. The Lions should be able to throw the ball and put points up on the board. Kitna has to throw fewer interceptions. He ranked 2nd in 2006 and 1st in 2007 in that regard. He also has to take fewer sacks, as he led the league in that regard in both 2006 and 2007.

This was a team that started the 2007 season 6-2, but finished 1-7. When they were winning their passing offense was not the only thing carrying them. They were good at forcing turnovers early in the season. The Lions had 17 interceptions, which ranked 14th in the NFL, which is right around the middle of the pack. They finished 9th in sacks with 37. That made up for their 31st ranked pass defense. Fernando Bryant is no longer with the team. Leigh Bodden, Brian Kelly, and Dwight Smith are expected to help in that regard.

Shaun Rodgers is gone from the defensive line. It will be interesting to see how that affects the run defense, which ranked 23rd in the NFL with him. Corry Redding and Chuck Darby will have to step up their play. Ernie Sims is a fantastic young linebacker. Boss Bailey is now in Denver, but never really did live up to expectations in Detroit. The Lions have good individual players on defense, but need them to step up and making their units more competitive. Other than sacks and picks there wasn’t much this defense did right in 2007.

Jason Hanson is still the kicker and a mainstay in Detroit. He has been with the Lions since 1992 and is considered one of the more reliable kickers in the NFL.

Weaknesses: This team really lacked a running game. They ranked 32nd in rushing attempts and 31st in rushing yards. Many people blamed Mike Martz for that. Keep in mind that he coached Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson in St Louis. While he definitely prefers the forward pass, he has had successful backs in his system. Part of the Lions inability to run the ball stemmed from their running backs, poor offensive line, and defense that did not give them leads on a consistent basis.

The Lions got rid of Kevin Jones and TJ Duckett and retained Tatum Bell. They drafted Kevin Smith in the 3rd round. They are also instituting a zone-blocking scheme, which is catching on in the NFL. The Lions still figure to be weak running the ball in 2008. Zone blocking schemes do not make bad lineman good nor does it make bad running backs great. I watched Green Bay make that transition and it took over a year to see results. Bell had good games in a zone-blocking scheme in Denver. He needs to step up his production in 2008. It will be interesting if Smith is able to have a breakout rookie year as the two split time.

The offensive line needs to improve on the 54 sacks they gave up in 2007. That is one reason why the Lions throw so many interceptions. Quarterbacks need time to find people down field. When you finish last in the NFL in rushing attempts, 31st in rushing yards gained, and give up the 3rd most sacks there aren’t many positives to look at on the offensive line. That was the major motivation for selecting Gosder Cherilus in the first round. He will be asked to step in immediately.

On defense they have to hope the people they added in the secondary can cover better. Even if the secondary did improve, they still need their front 7 to stop the run and create pressure. Look how a bad run defense hurt Bailey and Bly in Denver. Until the Lions improve on stopping the run it will be impossible for them to get maximum production out of their secondary.

Prediction: The Lions were a team that I was not sold on last season, even when they started 6-2. I was one of the people that said that team would crash in the second half of the season and they did just that. Matt Millen has proven time and time again that he cannot draft well and that he is unable to put his coaches in a position to succeed. There are good parts, but they don’t fit together to make a good product.

The Lions have a good passing offense and having a coordinator that isn’t quite so pass happy will take pressure of that offense. Their receivers will cause problems for team and I expect a decent offensive showing from the Lions.

What I also expect is they will struggle to stop Indy, Jacksonville, and New Orleans on offense. I expect Tennessee and Tampa Bay to give them fits with their defense. Finally, I think Green Bay and Minnesota will get the better of them in division games. What it amounts to is Kitna predicting 10 wins and reality delivering another 6 or 7 win season and another year of missing the playoffs.

Detroit Lions’ Record: 6-10 – NFC North 3rd Place; No Playoffs

4) Chicago Bears

07 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 334 (18th)

Points Allowed: 348 (16th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 136-120 (.531) (11th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Bears have always had offensive issues. What they traditionally relied on was a very strong defense. In 2005 they finished 1st in points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed. In their 2006 Super Bowl season they finished 3rd and 5th in those areas. They have been one of the best teams at forcing turnovers. That has allowed the less than stellar offense to work with a short field and control the clock with the run.

That never panned out last season. The Bears offense was still not explosive, but the defense failed them. They finished 16th in points allowed and 28th in yards allowed. Brian Urlacher was hurt and did not play up to his standards. Mike Brown was lost for the season. The Bears had a very injured unit.

The defensive line is still strong. Tommy Harris is a fantastic defensive tackle. Alex Brown, Mark Anderson, and Adewale Ogunleye all provide a strong pass rush. They are still looking for a replacement for Tank Johnson to play opposite Harris at the defensive tackle.

The linebackers are still great too. Urlacher is one of the best in the business, but did battle injuries last season. He is unhappy with his contract. At least Lance Briggs is happy; as he did sign the long-term deal he had been looking for the last couple seasons. He is a 3-time Pro Bowler.

In the secondary Brown, Tillman, Vasher, R. Manning, D. Manning and McBride give the Bears a number of people for coverage and making big plays. They just need everyone to stay healthy. If they can do that they will be able to force turnovers, which is a must for a Cover 2 team. That will help offense produce enough in short field situations to give the Bears defense leads and rest. If that happens there is still enough defensive talent to carry this team to the playoffs.

Last, but certainly not least are the special teams. Devin Hester. He is the Bears best weapon at this point. After just 2 seasons he is in the discussion for best return man in the history of the NFL. He makes a lot of big plays in the return game and as a wide receiver. The Bears will look to involve him even more as a receiver in 2008. Brendon Ayanbadejo made the Pro Bowl as the special teams specialist. Finally, Robbie Gould is a solid kicker. The Bears probably have the best special teams in the NFL.

Weaknesses: The problem is there just isn’t a lot of talent on offense. As bad as it was last year it is worse in 2008. That starts with the quarterbacks. Grossman is very inconsistent and Orton is consistently poor. Neither has shown they are capable of leading a team to sustained playoff success, even though Orton won 10 games as a rookie and Grossman was the quarterback for the Bears in their 06 Super Bowl run. They need one of them to emerge, but there is no reason to believe either will. The Bears did nothing to sign a quarterback in free agency or draft a young one to develop. I believe that was a huge mistake.

Then we get to receiver. Marty Booker, Brandon Lloyd, Devin Hester, Mark Bradley, and Rashied Davis. None of those guys are acceptable #3 receivers on average passing teams at this point. It is either possession receivers or home run hitters. There is no receiver that is a complete package in the group. The fact that two of them must start is not good news for the passing game. Clark and Olson are quality tight ends and the best targets this team has in the passing game.

Then there is the offensive line. Fred Miller was released this summer at tackle. They hope Chris Williams will be able to step in and contribute immediately. Tait, Metcallf, Kreutz, and Clair are all 30 or older. Garza is the youngster at 29. The line is starting to get old and the Bears could use an infusion of youth at those positions. Fred Miller was not the only thing holding that line back.

Finally, there is the running back spot. Benson has been waived after 2 arrests in 5 weeks. Adrian Peterson, Garrett Wolfe, and Matt Forte round out below average backfield. As a whole, the Bears offense is among the most unproven in the NFL. There is not one unit that is worthy of being considered a team strength. It should finish among the worst in the NFL in terms of yards gained and points scored.

Prediction: I know Bears fans will point to the fact that they went to a Super Bowl in 2006 with an average offense. That they went 11-5 and won the division with the 26th ranked scoring offense in 2005. The feeling in Chicago is that defense wins championships and the Bears have the defense.

I’m just not seeing it. Some of those key Bears players have started to get older. Urlacher is starting to have health issues and Mike Brown can never stay healthy. Without those two this defense becomes average very quickly. Last season the Bears defense couldn’t carry this team and they really struggled as a team to consistently win. The Bears first winning streak was in Week 16 and 17 after they had been eliminated from playoff contention.

This year the offense is even worse. Benson, Berrian, and Muhammad were nothing extraordinary, but they were better than what the Bears have. Griese is no longer around if Grossman struggles. There are a lot of questions on offense and not enough answers on defense. The Bears are not the same defense they were in 2005 and 2006.

The Bears get a very tough schedule. The Colts, Jags, and Titans all have tremendous defenses. The Packers have a young and upcoming defense. The Vikings have one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Bucs are traditionally tough on defense. That is half their schedule that they may not score more than 10-14 points per game against. The defense will keep the Bears in those games, but I’m not sure the defense will be able to carry them to many victories.

The Bears window has closed in my opinion and it is time to look toward overhauling the offense and adding some younger pieces on defense. Only time will tell how long it takes the Bears to do that.

Chicago Bears’ Record: 5-11 – NFC North 4th Place; No Playoffs

That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008.  I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July.  I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008.  Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews.  You have made writing these a lot of fun.

As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.

In today’s Sports Culture we are quick to throw around titles like Great, Greatest, and Best.  Ohio State vs. Miami in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl produced the Greatest Championship Game of all time.  That was until 2006 when Texas beat USC in the Rose Bowl.  Maybe it was 2007 when Boise St upset Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.  Miami vs. Ohio St went from the Greatest Game ever to the second best Fiesta Bowl in a matter of 4 years.

I am going to throw around the term greatest in this respect.  The 2007 NFL Regular Season has had the most entertaining big game matchups in the history of the league.  Consider the following:

1) October 14, 2007, New England (5-0) at Dallas (5-0) – This game had it all.  First (5-0) team vs. (5-0) team.  The last undefeated team in the NFC vs. the best-undefeated team in the AFC.  Tony Romo vs. Tom Brady.  Randy Moss vs. TO.  America’s Team vs. Public Enemy #1.  I still think this game is unfairly labeled as a blowout.  Part of the reason is because New England was ahead 14-0 in that game after the first quarter and part of the reason was the final score.  Dallas led 24-21 in the 3rd quarter.  The score was 31-24 New England after three quarters.  The 4th quarter got away from Dallas, but it was a competitive game until the final minutes. 

2) November 4, 2007, New England (8-0) at Indianapolis (7-0) – This was billed as the best regular season matchup in the history of the NFL.  The latest that two undefeated teams squared off in a regular season game.  Three of the last four Super Bowl Champions were on display.  It was a rematch of the 2006 AFC Championship Game.  Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady.  Some felt the game didn’t live up to the billing because the score was only 24-20.  When you consider the Patriots trailed 20-10 in the 4th quarter before coming back to win 24-20 the game was a classic contest. 

3)  November 29, 2007, Green Bay (10-1) at Dallas (10-1) – Okay, it isn’t (8-0) vs. (7-0).  But it sure is good.  The last time two (10-1) teams or better met was 1990 when the (10-1) New York Giants traveled to (10-1) San Francisco.  The time before that was back in 1969 when the (11-0) Rams lost to the (10-1) Vikings in Los Angeles.

Any of the three contests are worthy of highlighting season.  We are going to have had them all within two months of each other.  It isn’t so much that there are so many good playoff teams playing in the 2007 season; we have seen that on a number of occasions.  1991 saw the #5 seeded Dallas Cowboys make the playoffs at 11-5.  1998 saw the four-conference finalist have a 55-9 record.  14-2 Atlanta played on the road in the NFC Championship game.  2001 saw the 49ers open up a playoff game in Green Bay with a 12-4 record as the 5th seed.   2004 saw the four-conference finalist combine for a 53-11 record with 14-2 New England playing on the road in the AFC Championship Game. 

However, most seasons you don’t have this many great matchups this late in the season.  Rarely will you have so many instances where the heavy weights square off against one another.  Most weeks (8-3) Jacksonville at (9-2) Indy is drawing national headlines.  It’s the second best game this week.  In a couple weeks we have Pittsburgh at New England in what will be our 4th premier non-divisional matchup of the season.  It will probably be New England’s only test to go undefeated prior to the season finale against the Giants.  It has truly been a historic season in terms of great regular season matchups. 

Dallas and Green Bay have quite a bit of history in their own rite.  Their first meeting was in Dallas’s expansion season back in 1960.  The Packers would beat the Cowboys 41-7 in Green Bay.  Green Bay was beginning the Lombardi era.  They would suffer his only playoff loss to the Philadelphia Eagles later that season.  1961 would mark the first of 5 NFL Championships and 2 Super Bowls victories. 

The Cowboys and Tom Landry would finish that 1960 season 0-11-1.  Neither appeared to be headed for greatness.  By 1966 Dallas was playing Green Bay in the title game.  They would lose the 1966 Championship Game in Dallas 34-27.  They would lose the Ice Bowl in 1967 by the score of 21-17.  Dallas would win their first Super Bowl in the 1971 season.  Landy would coach the Cowboys until the 1988 season.

The two franchises went in different directions after the Lombardi era.  The Packers would win one playoff game in the 1981 strike season.  It would mark their only playoff victory from 1968 season through the 1992 season.  Dallas would go on to win two Super Bowl under Landry and lose three others.  Two of those losses were to the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Dallas would have a winning record every year from 1966 to 1986.  Jerry Jones would buy the Cowboys and hire Jimmy Johnson to coach the Cowboys in 1989.

This is when the Packers and Cowboys crossed paths again.  The Cowboys hiring of Jimmy Johnson and trade of Herschel Walker to the Vikings led to a rebirth of the Cowboys.  They would win 3 Super Bowls in 4 years from 1992-1995.  Meanwhile, the Packers hired Ron Wolf in an attempt to turn around one of the worst run franchises in sports.  He hired Mike Holmgren, traded a first round pick for Brett Favre, and signed Reggie White in free agency.  The rest was history.  The Packers would appear in 3 straight NFC Championship games from 1995-1997, winning the 1996 Super Bowl and losing the 1997 Super Bowl.  They have had one losing season since 1992. 

From 1993-1996, Dallas and Green Bay played each other a total of seven times.   The game was played in Dallas all seven times.  Three times it was in the playoffs.  Dallas went 7-0.  The average score was 33.3 to 18.3.  Dallas won every game by more than a touchdown with five of the seven Dallas victories coming by double digits.  While Green Bay had the superior passing attack, Aikman managed the game more efficiently behind the best offensive line and running game in football.  Even in Green Bay’s magical 1996 Super Bowl season; Green Bay lost 21-6 in Dallas.  They would not get to face the Cowboys in the playoffs in 1996, due to Carolina upsetting Dallas in the second round. 

Green Bay would finally host Dallas in the 1997 season.  The Cowboys were going through an up and down season and went to Green Bay 6-5.  The Packers were in the midst of their second consecutive Super Bowl appearance.  The frustrations of the 1993-1996 seasons were taken out on Dallas that day 45-17.  The Cowboys would fail to win another game the rest of the season.  The Cowboys would get back to the playoffs in 1998 and 1999.  However, they have not won a playoff game since 1996.  The 1996 Panthers loss and the 1997 Packers loss are the two games that marked the end of 1990’s Cowboy dynasty.

This Thursday the Packers and Cowboys renew their rivalry as the two best teams in the NFC.  The Packers are in the final stages of the Brett Favre era.  Since going 8-20 from 2005 to week 13 of 2006, the Packers have gone 14-1.  The Cowboys after 4 up and down seasons under Bill Parcells are enjoying their best start in franchise history at 10-1.  Since inserting Tony Romo into the lineup against the Panthers last season the Cowboys are 16-5. 

This is a very tough game to pick.  Anyone that has followed my blog knows that I am a huge Packer fan.  If you think I’m going to pick against my 10-1 squad, you are crazy.  However, I don’t want to bore people with why I think the Packers will win and not pay any attention to the Cowboys, who deserve equal recognition for their remarkable start.  Week in and week out, I try not to be a Homer.  So here are the reasons each team will win:

Why the Cowboys will win:  The Cowboys have the second most dominant offense in the NFL behind the New England Patriots.  Their 32.5 ppg is on pace to score 520 points this season, which is more than the 2006 Chargers and comparable to the 522 points scored by the 2004 Colts.  If not for the Patriots historic start, the Cowboys would be the talk of the league.  The Cowboys play in the toughest division in the NFC.  Their only loss was to the Patriots, a team that they had a lead against in the third quarter after trailing 14-0 after the first quarter.  If you remove the Patriots game from the equation, the Cowboys have outscored their opposition 331-173, or by 15.8 ppg.  Tony Romo is second in the league with 29 touchdown passes.  The offense is 2nd in total yards, 5th in total passing yards, and 11th in total rushing yards.  This offense can beat people with Romo throwing to TO.  They can beat people throwing to Witten and Crayton.  They can beat people with Barber III and Jones.  While the Packers have the 5th ranked scoring defense, they haven’t faced an offense with this much balance.  Furthermore, the Packers are only 12th in yards allowed.  Their strength has been to hold people to field goals instead of touchdowns.  While that can work against one-dimensional teams like Minnesota and Detroit, it won’t be as easy with all the weapons the Cowboys bring to the table.  Also with Charles Woodson’s toe in question and numerous injuries on the defensive line, the Packers might be missing many key defensive weapons.  That is going to make this problem even worse.  On defense, the Cowboys are 4th against the run and their 16 picks rank 2nd in the NFL.  The Cowboys will be able to score points early and force the Packers into being an even more one-dimensional offense than they already are.  When that happens, Favre is going to have to force the ball and while he will make some big plays, he will also have some picks.  This will allow the Cowboys to control the tempo and win a high scoring contest.  

Why the Packers will win:  You keep hearing that Favre is 0-8 in Dallas for his career.  While Favre has struggled in Dallas in the past, he isn’t facing the 1990’s Cowboys defense.  There is no Sanders, Woodson, Smith, or Brown to cover his targets and make big plays.  Favre is the only player on either team that was in those games.  His lack of success in the past will have no bearing in this matchup.  The thing that experts keep pointing to when they pick Dallas is the advantage of Barber III and Jones vs. Ryan Grant.  However, Ryan Grant doesn’t have to tackle Barber III and Jones.  He merely has to make the opposing defense respect his ability to make plays on the ground.  The Vikings didn’t respect that ability.  The result was a 34-0 shutout and the first 100-yard rusher allowed by the Vikings defense.  Since the Denver game in week 7, Grant has three 100-yard games.  This has allowed the Packer offense to take off.  They have outscored Kansas City, Minnesota, Carolina, and Detroit 135-65 or by 17.5 ppg.  All 4 wins were by double digits.  The Pack was a little late joining the dominant teams, but they have now officially arrived.  The Cowboys aren’t playing the Packers that were winning games by field goals and hail marries earlier in the season.  They aren’t playing against Brandon Jackson.  They are playing a well-oiled machine that is finally able to move the ball mainly through the air, but on the ground as well.  The biggest advantage the Packers have is that their strength on offense is the Cowboys weakness on defense.  The Cowboys rank only 21st against the pass.  Don’t give me this, “Well they are ahead so much that teams are forced to pass to catch up.”  New England has a worse problem with that issue than the Cowboys and they rank 6th against the pass.  Eli Manning was able to pass for 310 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Cowboys in a 35-45 loss.  Tom Brady passed for 388 yards in a Patriot victory.  Jason Campbell passed for 348 yards in a game that went down to the wire.  All of those quarterbacks were able to gain yardage in meaningful action.  The Packers have the personal to put 4 or 5 wide receivers and move the ball at will against a weak Cowboy secondary.  They will be able to get favorable matchups against Roy Williams and Ken Hamlin.  If any of you watched the Patriot game; that bodes well for the Packers.  That air efficiency will hurt the Cowboys ability to put 7 in the box and Grant will be able to move the ball on the ground once the Packers have established their dominance through the air.  On defense, the Packers have the personal to slow down Tony Romo.  The Packers can put Al Harris on TO and not have to worry about devoting extra corners to help with the assignment.  Sure, TO is going to get his yards and scores, but it won’t be like the Washington game.  Furthermore, the Packers are as good as any team in the league at generating pressure with their front 4.  Witten will have to be used as a blocker as he was in the second Giants game.  Crayton and TO will not be able to expose a much stronger Packer secondary.  The Packer’s offense will stop Barber and Jones, because the Cowboys secondary will not allow the Cowboys to play with a lead.  The Packers will be able to get into the high 30s while keeping the Cowboys in the high 20s or low 30s. 

The game is huge.  If the Packers win the contest, they will have the inside track for home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  They would get the highly probable rematch in Lambeau Field.  If the Cowboys win, they will be assured of playing a highly probable rematch in much warmer weather.  Favre will have to answer more questions about whether he can finally shake the Dallas demons.  You want to answer those questions in Week 13, not the NFC Championship Game. 

I think the one thing both fans need to understand is that both teams have matchup advantages that can destroy the other.  The key is that every game presents different scenarios, and depending on how those scenarios play out, those advantages may be neutralized by the way the game unfolds.  Also in games of this nature, it is often the no name type player (Larry Brown) that makes the biggest impact.  That is what makes this game so fascinating.  There are many different ways this game could play out. 

As a Packer fan, I obviously think the pro Packer scenario will play out.  My prediction is that the Packers will win 35-28.  However, I am not going to do a disservice to this great contest by calling the Cowboys the Cowgirls and talking a bunch of meaningless trash.  Both teams have had impressive starts and unless there is a tie, both teams are not going to win.  I also think that no matter which team wins, the winner will not be a guarantee to win the rematch.  Both teams are good enough to make adjustments and change the result the second time around. 

What I am thankful for this holiday season is that I do have the NFL Network and will be able to enjoy this historic contest with a group of close friends.  What are your thoughts on this upcoming showdown?  Are you rooting for America’s Team or Titletown USA?  Are you rooting for the next big QB or the First Ballot Hall of Famer trying to win one last title at the end of a record setting career?  Let me know your thoughts.