I present to you my third preseason letter. Again, while I
appreciate feedback of things that I failed to mention, please don't get upset
if I don't list something about your favorite player or team. I could do a newsletter for just one
team. Trying to mention every team
or player in one newsletter would be impossibility. I hereby present to you a recap of the fourth week of
preseason action.
Standings
AFC
EastNFC
East
1. Buffalo (2-1) 1.Washington
(3-1)
2. Miami (2-1) 2.
Philadelphia (2-1)
3. New York Jets (2-1) 3.
Dallas (1-2)
4. New England (0-3) 4.
New York Giants (1-2)
AFC
SouthNFC
South
1. Houston (2-1) 1.
Carolina (2-1)
2. Tennessee (2-1) 2.
New Orleans (2-1)
3. Jacksonville (2-1) 3.
Tampa Bay (2-1)
4. Indianapolis (1-3) 4.
Atlanta (1-2)
AFC
NorthNFC
North
1.Pittsburgh (2-1) 1.Detroit
(3-0)
2.Baltimore (1-2) 2.Green
Bay (1-2)
3.Cincinnati (1-2) 3.Minnesota
(1-2)
4.Cleveland (0-3) 4.Chicago
(0-3)
AFC
WestNFC
West
1.San Diego (2-1) 1.
Arizona (2-1)
2. Denver (1-2) 2.
Saint Louis (2-1)
3. Kansas City (1-2) 3.
San Fran (2-1)
4. Oakland (1-2) 4.
Seattle (2-1)
MVP of the Week:
DeAngelo Williams had a very nice game with 9 carries for 101 yards and
1 touchdown. Darren Sproles had a nice game on Monday with 13 carries for 102
yards and 1 touchdown. Jason Hill
from the 49ers had 4 catches for 91 yards and 1 touchdown. However, this week belonged to the
quarterbacks, which is typical in a 3rd preseason game. There were 3
starters that were very impressive.
Aaron Rodgers played nearly perfect in Denver. He was 18 for 22 for 193 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 picks, a
118.4 rating, and 1 rushing touchdown. Marc Bulger went 18 for 25 for 182
yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 picks, and a 119.1 QB rating. Drew Brees went 14 for 22
for 199 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 picks, and a 108.0 QB rating. Finally, Charlie Frye impressed filling
in for Matt Hasselbeck. He had 19 completions in 29 attempts for
219 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 picks, and a 111.1 QB rating.
Loser of the Week: Hard not to start with Matt Leinart. Despite Arizona’s 24-0 win, he lost his
starting job with his 4 for 12, 24 yards, 0 touchdowns, 3 picks, and 2.8 QB
rating. Washington’s run defense
had a lot to be desired. They gave
up 101 yards to Williams and 100 yards to Stewart in Carolina’s 47-3
domination. Finally, Brodie Croyle
failed to seize the starting job for the Chiefs with his 12 for 21, 110 yard, 0
touchdown, 1 pick, and 51.7 QB rating.
The Chiefs were shutout by the Dolphins 24-0.
Game of the Week: San Francisco and Chicago gave us a 37-30
contest that was tied 20-20 at half time.
Orton had 2 touchdown passes and Sullivan and Smith combined for 2
touchdown passes. Dallas and
Houston also played a good game that was won 23-22 by Dallas. Finally, San Diego and Seattle
gave us a good Monday Night game, with San Diego taking the lead 18-17 on a
2-point conversion with 2:12 left in the 4th.
The Bay of Pigs:
The Jets and the Giants didn’t give us a lot of scoring action. They played to a 0-0 first half tie,
before posting a 10-7 second half score.
The Giants were plagued with 4 for 13 third down efficiency and the Jets
were plagued with 12 penalties. It
was a pretty sloppy game.
The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action): Still waiting for the regular season on
this.
Remembering Gene Upshaw: The NFL lost one of its greatest players and Labor Leader in
Gene Upshaw. He died of cancer at
63 years old.
Gene Upshaw got his start in the NFL as a guard for the
Oakland Raiders. He was a first or
second All Pro 11-times, 2-time Super Bowl Champion, member of the NFL’s 1970’s
All Decade Team, and a member of the NFL’s 75th Anniversary All-Time
Team. He started 207 consecutive
games and played 307 total games.
Gene Upshaw and Art Shell teamed to form one of the most dominant lines
in NFL History. Upshaw was the only player in Pro Football history to play in
three Super Bowls with the same team in three different decades.
He also led an incredible life after football. He served as the Executive Director of
the National Football League Players Association from 1983 to 2008. That was a major accomplishment in
terms of civil rights for a black person to hold a position of that
stature. He was largely
responsible for bringing the players free agency. Player’s salaries skyrocketed in his tenure.
Upshaw did not serve without controversy. Many players felt he was too friendly
with NFL Owners and Management.
The NFL is the only major American sports league without guaranteed
contracts. He also received a lot
of criticism for how the league treated former players in terms of benefits and
disability.
Regardless of your opinion of his work it is rare that a player
of his stature goes on to have an even more famous career after pro
football. He is one of the most
influential people in the history of the NFL and his death was an unexpected
tragedy. He was just
diagnosed with pancreatic cancer on August 17, 2008. He died just 3 days later.
Hospital Visit: This is a pretty long list this week. Harry Williams, Jr. had the most
serious injury. The Texans
receiver was temporarily paralyzed from the neck down. He regained use of his extremities on
the way to the hospital. He had
surgery to repair a broken C3 vertebrae.
His career is likely over.
It was a bad week for defensive players. Osi Umenyiora was probably the most
devastating injury with his devastating knee injury. He as lost for the season.
Shaun Merriman has a career threatening knee injury. He is seeking medical advice all over
the country as he contemplates whether to shutdown his season or play through
the pain and risk permanent injury.
Tuesday will be his 4th doctor. The previous three recommended he shut his season down. Either way it is hard to imagine him
being as effective in 2008 as we are used to seeing.
Jason Taylor is expected to be out for a couple weeks and
may miss the season opener against the Giants.
Carson Palmer suffered a broken nose. He should be ready for the season
opener. His teammate Chad Johnson
has a partially torn labrum. He
expects to play with that injury.
I don’t expect it to be too big of a deal. Kellen Winslow played with the same injury last season and
tight ends have significantly more blocking responsibility. Still it’s a question mark.
Matt Hasselbeck has a sore back and missed the Charger’s
game. He is expected back for Week
1. With all the injuries they have
at receiver they can’t afford for him to be limited or on the bench, even with
how well Frye played on Monday and Wallace has played this preseason.
Brian Dawkins is questionable for the start of the season
due to an ankle injury he suffered against New England. Kevin Curtis had sports hernia surgery
and will probably not be back until midseason.
Starting Dallas left guard Kyle Kosier strained his foot and
is expected to miss 1 month.
The Raiders suspect offense was weakened further with
receiver Drew Carter and fullback Oren O'Neal suffering season ending
injuries. I told you it was a long
list this week.
Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:
1) Cause for concern in New England? – Again, I’m not
worried about 0-3 for New England.
Brady isn’t playing on offense and a veteran team with this much playoff
experience is not going to go full bore in the preseason.
It isn’t so much the losses, but how the losses
occurred. It’s the 17-play 80-yard
drive that Griese went 8 for 8 on to open the game against the first team
defense. Its McNabb’s 13 for 17
for 180 yards and 1 touchdown against 0 picks. It’s the fact they have been outscored 42 to 70 in 3
preseason games.
Veteran teams struggle in preseason. The Colts are traditionally a bad
preseason team. They went 1-3 in
2007, 1-3 in 2006, and 0-5 in 2005.
They started all three of those seasons at least 9-0.
However, this also reminds me of the 2002 St Louis
Rams. That team was coming off a
tough loss as a favorite in the prior years Super Bowl. That was the 14-2 unstoppable favorite
that lost by a field goal to big underdog New England. That team went 0-4 in preseason and
looked awful. That team battled
injuries and poor play on its way to a 7-9 season.
Until we see Brady on the field its impossible to know how
this team does in 2008. Still, it
has been a very bad preseason for the Patriots. It is enough to have me concerned as we approach the regular
season.
2) Dallas coming into form – This is exactly what the 0-2
Cowboys needed. Romo was very
sharp going 15 for 19 for 166 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 pick. Barber had 13 carries for 75 yards and
1 touchdown. Owens, Hurd, and
Crayton had good halves. The
Cowboys were up 20-10 at the half, before holding on for a 23-22 win.
This is exactly what you want if you are the Cowboys. They got a good game in their most
important preseason game. They can build off this performance. Great week for the Cowboys.
3) Weekly Favre update – No newsletter would be complete
without a weekly Favre update. He
played very well. 9 for 12 for 96
yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 picks.
He had a 30-yard pass called back on a penalty and a long touchdown pass
called back on a penalty. He’s
slinging the ball, getting good velocity, and seems to be in decent command of
the offense.
The biggest concern for the Jets is with so many new
starters they are going to get false starts, motion penalties, and other
mistakes that come with not having played together for a long time. Having a veteran like Favre can speed
up the process. While the Jets
look like anything but Super Bowl contenders the Favre experiment appears to
have been a worthwhile gamble.
They will need to continue to work hard to be ready for the opener.
4) The effect of Osi Umenyiora’s season ending injury – This
is a devastating loss. Osi Umenyiora has led the NY Giants in sacks each of the
last 3 years. He has either led or
tied the team for the lead in sacks each of the last 3 years. He has 40.5 sacks over the last 4
years. Osi Umenyiora had 6 sacks in one game against the Eagles in 2007. He is a big part of their pass rush.
The plan to replace Strahan was to move Tuck to defensive
end and have him team with Osi Umenyiora as double digit sack artists. Now the Giants have to contemplate
whether it is worth making an offer to Strahan to come out of retirement. Strahan has to figure out if he is
interested. Both have to decide
whether he is a) in shape to comeback, and b) if not, how long that would
take. This is not like Favre who
was not in camp, but was keeping himself in NFL shape. Strahan is currently vacationing in
Greece. I can’t imagine he’s doing
2-3 hours of workouts in the morning.
The Giants can survive this even if Strahan doesn’t
comeback. They can move Mathias
Kiwanuka back to his original position of defensive end. He played that position at Boston
College as well as his first year with the NY Giants. That would weaken their linebacker position.
This is the worst possible scenario of preseason. To have a player of this caliber go
down in preseason is the nightmare every coach has in August. The Giants still have the talent in
place to compete in the NFC East.
However, it will be challenging to play as well as they did at the end
of last season. The Giants losing
Strahan, Mitchell, Torbar, and Wilson in the off-season was not something to
take lightly. Losing Umenyiora
makes it that much more difficult.
This injury puts even more pressure on Eli Manning to avoid the mistakes
that plagued him in the 2007 regular season and continue on his strong
postseason run.
5) Is Detroit emerging as a division favorite – Detroit has
had a good preseason. In 3 games
they have outscored their opposition 66-26. They squeaked out a 3-point win against the Giants before
crushing Cincinnati and Cleveland.
Kitna has been very sharp in preseason. Kevin Smith has run the ball well. Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams have both impressed. The defense has not gotten pushed
around.
It’s not inconceivable the Lions could contend for this
division. They started the 2007
season 6-2, before fading to a 1-8 finish. Smith should allow them to run the ball better in 2008 and
Kitna shouldn’t have as many interceptions now that the premier game manager
Mike Martz is blessing the 49ers with his run and gun style.
Green Bay has that Brett guy gone. Chicago is fielding an offense that figures to be somewhere
between below average and terrible.
That leaves Minnesota as the favorite. Minnesota has a lot of questions at quarterback. It is not inconceivable they could
struggle at times. While Minnesota
is probably the favorite with Green Bay in the mix, Detroit is playing the best
preseason ball of any team in this division, if not the NFL. If they can carry that into the regular
season they will add some intrigue to what figures to be a wide-open division.
6) Rodgers impressive in Denver; Packers were not – Rodgers
played very well in Denver. He
went 18 for 22 for 193 yards with 1 touchdown and 0 picks. He was only sacked once. He led the Packers on scoring drives in
4 of his 5 possessions. Despite
that the Packers trailed 17-13 at the half and only won 27-24.
The reason for that was a terrible defensive effort. Ryan punted a ball that was downed
inside the 1-yard line. The
Broncos took that ball 99 yards down the field and scored a touchdown on the
Packers. Then the Packers
tried to cover Marshall with backup corner Williams in 1-on-1 coverage. The result was a touchdown drive that
took 16 seconds.
I have not been very impressed with the Packers defense in
preseason. The Bengals scored 20
of their 30 preseason points in the opener against the Packers. San Fran put 34 points on the board. The Broncos put 24 points on the
board. Granted some of that was
against backups. Still, what are
the Packers going to do in the secondary if Woodson or Harris gets hurt? What are they going to do in nickel and
dime sets?
The Packers will not be as good on offense in 2008 as they
were in 2007. That is a given now
that #4 is not there. In order for
the Packers to succeed they will have to run the ball better and play better
defense. Grant hasn’t carried the
ball yet and the defense played much better in the preseason last year. That is not a good sign for Packer
fans.
7) Raven’s offensive woes – This is an offense that has not
disappointed. No one expected them
to do well in 2008 and they are not giving us a false sense of hope in the
preseason. The Ravens managed 13
first half points against the Patriots.
Since then the Patriot defense has been shredded. The Ravens followed that up with 7
first half points against the Vikings.
Then they had 3 first half points against the potent Rams defense.
Flacco has a 66.3 QB rating in the preseason. Boller has a 51.8. Smith has a 46.8. Compare that to the 115.6 QB rating of
Brett Ratliff, 92.3 rating of Aaron Rodgers, or 82.5 rating of Brady
Quinn. The preseason is supposed
to be a chance for young quarterbacks to succeed against vanilla defenses. The Ravens are struggling to score any
points with their first team.
Their quarterbacks are struggling to put up good numbers in preseason
action. That doesn’t bode well for
the regular season where they play both the NFC East and AFC South.
Ravens fans will argue that McGahee isn’t playing right now and will help this
offense. That is a valid
defense. There are just so many
tough defenses on the schedule and a lack of playmakers that are going to help
these young guys put up big numbers.
It’s a vicious circle. The
skill players aren’t good enough to overcome average quarterback play and the
quarterbacks aren’t good enough to overcome average skill position play. Mason, Heap, and McGahee are good
players, but they aren’t game changers.
None of those guys should be featured offensive weapons. The result is going to be a long year for
the offense in Baltimore.
8) Matt Leinart’s failure, affect on Cardinals – This is why
I wasn’t afraid to pick the Cardinals to win the AFC West. I am disappointed in Matt Leinart. I thought he had the potential to
breakout this season. Reports out
of Arizona were that he was doing well in practice and with the offense. However, he had a horrible game against
the Raiders in which he had 3 interceptions. The result was a benching.
The nice thing is this doesn’t hurt Arizona too much. In fact it may help them. Kurt Warner is not the same guy he was
in St Louis, but he still threw 27 touchdown passes last year. He has good chemistry with the star
receivers and is a player that defenses respect. His only fault is that he tends to hold on to the ball too
long causing unnecessary fumbles and sacks.
That said Warner isn’t going to get rattled in a big
game. He is a solid veteran
influence on a team that needs to learn how to win. While Matt Leinart appears to be headed for the bust
category Arizona still has an excellent chance to compete in the NFC West.
9) What happened to Washington?- This was the head scratching game of the week. It’s one thing to lose a preseason
game. But 47-3 is always going to
be cause for concern, especially against a Carolina team that many people
consider a fringe playoff team at best.
The majority of the damage was done in a 31 point 2nd
quarter. Steve Smith, DeAngelo
Williams, Johnathan Stewart, and Dante Rosario all got into the mix. Credit Carolina for playing a good
game.
Washington was 3-0 headed into this game; so one preseason
blowout isn’t reason for panic.
Jason Taylor is now hurt and figures to miss time. He might not be ready to open the
season as the Redskins face the NY Giants on September 4th to open
the season. The team still seems
to be learning the new offense and has had a number of injuries on
defense.
The Redskins can’t afford to get off to a slow start. They play at New York, Dallas, and
Philadelphia in the first 5 games of the season. They host New Orleans and Arizona. It is imperative that they don’t dig themselves a 2-3 or 1-4
hole. In that division it will be
tough to overcome that.
10) What is going on in Cleveland? – If Detroit as been the
most impressive team of the preseason the Browns have been one of the
worst. They played well in the
opener against the Jets. Since
then they have imploded. Even
though they only lost 37-30 to the Giants they trailed that game 31-3 in the
second quarter. Those were backups
getting the team back into the game.
Then they lost 26-6 to Detroit.
Anderson suffered a concussion against the Giants and did
not play against Detroit. Crennel
has elected to hold out a lot of his starters to keep them healthy for the regular
season.
The Browns have a tough start to the season. They play Dallas and Pittsburgh at
home, before playing at Cincinnati and at Baltimore. If the Browns start 0-2 it is going to put a lot of pressure
on them to win on the road in consecutive weeks. Last year the Bengals and Ravens had less than stellar
seasons. Despite the Browns 10-6
record they lost 19-14 at Cincinnati and gave up 30 points in a 33-30 win
against the Ravens. That was the
crossbar miracle game. That was
also the only game Baltimore scored over 30 points last season.
The Browns are going to score points in 2008. The problem is that they still have
questions on defense and based on the preseason it doesn’t look like a real
strength of the team. Hopefully
for the Browns they can get that fixed in the regular season. If they don’t they are going to need to
score points in bunches to be successful.
A Look Ahead:
There isn’t really anything to look ahead too as most teams will be
looking to rest their starters and get ready for the opener. That’s why I gave 10 impressions
instead of just 5 in an attempt to cover more teams without wasting time predicting
completely meaningless final preseason games.
Next weeks newsletter will be light on recapping action from
the final week and will focus on Week 1 matchups and things to look for. I look forward to reading your
comments.
It’s back. This
is my second preseason letter. I
didn’t do one the opening week with just the Hall of Fame Game on the
slate. Again, while I appreciate
feedback of things that I failed to mention, please don't get upset if I don't
list something about your favorite player or team. I could do a Newsletter for just one team. Trying to mention every team or player
in one newsletter would be impossibility.
I hereby present to you a recap of the third week of preseason
action.
Standings
AFC
East NFC
East
1. Buffalo (1-1) 1.Washington
(3-0)
2. Miami (1-1) 2.
NY Giants (1-1)
3. New York Jets (1-1) 3.
Philadelphia (1-1)
4. New England (0-2) 4.
Dallas (0-2)
AFC
South NFC
South
1. Houston (2-0) 1.
Tampa Bay (2-0)
2. Tennessee (2-0) 2.
Carolina (1-1)
3. Jacksonville (1-1) 3.
New Orleans (1-1)
4. Indianapolis (1-2) 4.
Atlanta (0-2)
AFC
North NFC
North
1.Baltimore (1-1) 1.Detroit
(2-0)
2.Cincinnati (1-1) 2.Minnesota
(1-1)
3.Pittsburgh (1-1) 3.Chicago
(0-2)
4.Cleveland (0-2) 4.Green
Bay (0-2)
AFC
West NFC
West
1.Denver (1-1) 1.
Seattle (2-0)
2. Kansas City (1-1) 2.
Arizona (1-1)
3. Oakland (1-1) 3.
San Fran (1-1)
4. San Diego (1-1) 4.
St Louis (1-1)
MVP of the Week:
Matt Schaub had a terrific performance this week. He went 14 for 16 for 187 yards and 2
touchdown tosses while throwing 0 interceptions. He posted a 154.9 QB rating. Michael Turner was very productive for the Falcons. While he carried the ball only 4 times
he had 113 yards, including a 63-yard dash. Finally, Brandon Coutu had a very
nice game going 5 for 5 on field goals and 2-2 on extra points. Included in those field goals was a
48-yard and 46-yard kick. But
Domenik Hixon had the best performance of all. He had 2 receiving touchdowns and a return touchdown in the
first quarter as the NY Giants built a 23-3 first quarter lead. That effort propelled them to a 37-34
victory.
Loser of the Week:
I would go with the New England defense, the Cleveland Browns, and the
Green Bay Packers. The Patriots
rebuilt their secondary and linebackers this off-season. It looked woefully inadequate Sunday
Night. Brain Griese went 8-8 on
the first drive on a 17-play drive that consumed 9:38 seconds. The Patriots trailed 17-3 at the half
and 27-3 after three quarters, before losing 27-10. Granted Tom Brady didn’t play which limited the offense, but
I was not impressed with the Patriots defense against what I consider a pretty
average offense. It is probably
nothing to worry about at this stage, but that needs to get fixed up.
Then there were the Browns. This is a classic example of how preseason scores can be
misleading. If you looked at the
final you see a 37-34 game. It
looks like both teams getting in good work in a high scoring game. Hidden in that score is that the NY
Giants first team destroyed the Browns first team to the tune of a 30-3 lead in
the early part of the second quarter.
That was an embarrassing game by the first string and is something they
will need to address next week when they take on the Detroit Lions.
Green Bay I will discuss later in my Impressions of the
Week.
Game of the Week: I’m going to go with another preseason
overtime game. The Seahawks and
Bears played to a 26-26 tie, before the Hawks broke the tie with a field goal
in overtime. The Seahawks were
down 10 points entering the 4th quarter before they ran off 17
points. Kellen Davis tied the game
with 2:50 left in the 4th quarter. Brandon Coutu nailed a 36-yard field goal early in the
overtime to give the Hawks the win.
Honorable mention to the Cleveland Browns and NY Giants.
The Bay of Pigs:
Has to be that 7-6 gem the Chargers and the Rams put up in St
Louis. The Chargers kicked a pair
of first quarter field goals and the Rams scored the lone touchdown in the
third quarter.
The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action): Still waiting for the regular season on
this.
Hospital Visit:
Chad Johnson suffered a sprained shoulder. He has already been ruled out for next week’s game and
Marvin Lewis said he could be questionable for the season opener.
Tavaris Jackson hurt his knee in the Viking’s win. The Vikings quarterback strained his
MCL. He is expected to miss next
week, but should be okay for the season opener.
Tom Brady didn’t even travel to Tampa Bay, because of an
undisclosed injury. It is believed
that he has a sore foot. It is on
the same foot that bothered him in the Super Bowl, but a different injury. It is uncertain whether he will play in
the rest of the preseason.
Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:
1) The New York Bretts – Brett Favre had about as good of a
debut as one could hope for. He
went 5 for 6 for for 48 yards and 1 touchdown pass in 2 drives. It was arguably his best
preseason game since 2000 as he posted a 139.6 QB rating.
No, he does not yet have complete command of the
offense. The Jets had about 40
plays for him to use in that game.
Two drives aren’t enough to tell if he is ready to run the offense for
60 minutes. He needs to show he
understands the offense enough to run a 2-minute no huddle offense and that his
stamina is good enough to play well deep into the 4th quarter. I expect those things to come, but you
can’t learn about that in 6 pass attempts and 2 series.
However, there were two things that were clear, 1) The team
and the New York Jets fan base have been electrified by this signing. There was a very nice buzz in the air
surrounding the game. 2) Favre
still looks extremely sharp. He
had a 19-yard pass to Cotchery that was a beautiful touch pass down the
field. He also looked of the
safety perfectly on the Keller touchdown.
About his only bad play was a sack he took on the first drive, which is
still better than throwing a pick in that spot.
It’s going to take several games for Favre to get on the
same page with his teammates.
There are going to be times where it looks great and times where it
doesn’t. His first game keeps the
optimism at a very high level and gives the Jets something to build on. Excellent first start for Favre.
2) The Rams need Steven Jackson – The Rams need to get
Steven Jackson’s contract figured out fast. In 2 preseason games the Rams have looked horrific on
offense. They scored just 7 points
in their 7-6 win against San Diego.
They lost 34-13 in their opener to Tennessee.
Couple things in the Rams defense. Jackson would not have played 4 quarters in those
games. While they only had 76
yards against the Titans on the ground they did record 183 rushing yards
against the Chargers. This isn’t
so much an opinion I have because the offense has struggled in preseason. I feel they need him, because of what
he has meant to their offense the last 2 regular seasons.
Jackson got hurt in Week 3 last season. He came back in Week 8. The result was a 0-4 record in which
the Rams scored 7 points against the Cowboys, 3 points against the Ravens, and
6 points against the Seahawks. The
only game the offense looked good in was the 34-31 loss to Arizona.
Steven Jackson is a beast. In 2006 he recorded 2,334 yards from scrimmage, which ranks
5th in NFL history. It
was only 95 yards shy of Marshall Faulk’s 1999 NFL record. He also scored 16 touchdowns that
season. Last year despite missing
those 4 starts he still recorded 1,002 yards rushing and scored 5
touchdowns. He scored a touchdown
in 6 of the 9 games after he came back from injury.
This holdout is looking a lot like Larry Johnson last
season. It looks like it could
drag into the eve of the regular season.
It will take him a couple games to warm up. Holdouts of this nature can be a precursor to injuries.
The Rams can’t afford that. On paper they don’t appear particularly strong even with
Jackson in the lineup. While Holt
and Bulger can move the ball through the air they won’t be nearly as effective
if defenses don’t have Steven Jackson to contend with. This offense needs a healthy Steven
Jackson this season. The Rams need
to get him into camp ASAP to put him in the best possible position to do that.
3) Pack took a big step back – Lost in the Aaron Rodgers vs.
Brett Favre story is that both players play with 50 other players. The story out of this game has been
that Aaron Rodgers took a step back.
Aaron Rodgers is not the only story on this team. In terms of preseason losses this is
about as bad as it gets and Rodgers was not the only concern.
The Brown’s first team at least got thumped by the defending
champions. The Patriots lost to a
playoff team without Brady.
Granted the Packers didn’t have some key players, mainly Grant and
Jennings, but San Fran is a bad football team.
The first problem is the offense did nothing to move the
ball. The Packers gained 46 yards
of total offense in the first half.
Their two scoring drives for field goals featured a 4-play drive for -6
yards. The other drive was 4 plays
for 2 yards. Rodgers was sacked 4
times. He had several passes that
were dropped, including a sure touchdown grab by Donald Lee. The Packers managed only 101 yards
rushing against a team that gave up 248 yards rushing to Oakland just a week
ago. They also lost 3
fumbles.
Then there was the defense. The Packers allowed the 49er offense to go 15 plays for 87
yards and take off 9:15 of game clock in the second quarter. They allowed O’Sullivan to go 8 for 17
for 154 yards and 1 touchdown and 1 interception. The touchdown pass to Morgan was for 59 yards.
I’m not one to hit the panic button because of a bad
preseason game. Al Harris and
Charles Woodson weren’t playing on that 87-yard drive. Ryan Grant and Greg Jennings weren’t on
the field. Those are big factors.
Again, what I didn’t like is that I don’t think San Fran is
a very good football team. They
ranked 32 in scoring, 32 in offensive yards, and 32nd in first downs
in 2007. They scored 6 points
against the Raiders last week.
Their defense ranked 20th in points allowed and 25th
in yards allowed last year. This
is a defense that should be scored on.
It is not a team that should have beat the Packers 34-6.
The Packers have a big test in front of them. Not only Rodgers, but the entire team
is going to receive more scrutiny because of the Favre situation than possibly
any team in the history of the NFL.
They played okay in a 20-17 loss to Cincy. Then they took a terrible step back to a mediocre football
team. They need to play a good
game and establish a rhythm against Denver. They need to get Jennings and Grant on the field to get reps
with Rodgers.
Denver is historically as tough of a venue as any in the NFL. It will be good to see how they handle
that atmosphere. It’s difficult to
know what to take out of Saturday’s game, but hopefully for the Packers it was
just a case of a flat preseason performance.
4) Houston Texans impressing in preseason – Houston and
Detroit are probably the most impressive non-postseason team in this
preseason. Seeing Matt Millen
isn’t running the Texans they get the advantage. They played very well at the Super Dome on Saturday. Schaub went 14 for 16 for 187 yards and
2 touchdowns with 0 picks. Rookie
Steve Slaton played well with 13 carries for 57 yards and a rushing
touchdown. The Texans won 31-27. The game before that they beat Denver
19-16. Schaub was 4 for 5 for 29
yards.
The Texans had a good season last year. Despite losing Schaub for 5 starts,
Andre Johnson for 7 starts, and Ahman Green for 11 starts they managed to go
7-3 outside of the division and 8-8 overall. They won 3 of their last 4 games. It was their 1-5 record in the division that killed them and
that lone win came against a resting Jaguars team on the final day of the
season.
The Colts still should be strong and the Jaguars look to be
improved from a year ago. The
Titans are always going to play people tough. I would pick the Texans to make the playoffs out of the AFC
North, West, and possibly the East.
The South is going to make for tough wins in the division again in
2008. If the Texans are going to
win Schaub and Johnson must stay healthy and if Green doesn’t stay healthy
Steve Slaton or Chris Brown must emerge. Green strained his groin on the first carry of the
Bronco game and did not play against the Saints. That is not a good sign for a guy that has missed 19 games
since 2005.
This is a young team that needs to continue to improve and they
look to be doing just that. While
it will be tough to make the playoffs out of the stacked AFC South the Texans
are a team that I believe has a chance to compete for a final wild card spot
with Buffalo, Denver, NY Jets, if they stay healthy this year. So far they are doing the right
things in preseason.
5) Chicago Bears are really struggling – I’m not sure what
to expect out of the Bears in terms of wins and losses, but one thing that I
expect is that this will be arguably the worst offense in the NFL this season.
The first problem is a bad quarterback and worse
quarterback. The Bears are trying
to flip a coin to decide which puts the team in the best position to not
completely stink up the field.
Grossman has a 66.9 QB rating in two preseason games. He played fairly well against Kansas
City and stunk against Seattle.
Orton has a 76.4 rating and has yet to throw a touchdown pass or
interception. Neither has
established himself as the front-runner. Yet the Bears named Orton the starting quarterback for
the season opener. Hopefully he
has shown more in practice than he did in the games.
The offensive line was supposed to be in rebuilding mode
behind the drafting of Chris Williams.
Fred Miller and Rueben Brown were both let go to help this line get
younger. Williams was an injury
concern entering the draft, because of neck and back issues. Chris Williams now has a herniated disc
and could miss most of or all of the NFL season. Even if he does comeback he will be way behind the curve and
his rookie season is going to be a lost season at best.
Then there are the skill positions. Marty Booker, Brandon Lloyd, Rashied
Davis, Devon Hester, and Mark Bradley are expected to be the Bears receivers
this season. Matt Forte and Adrian
Peterson will get the majority of the carries. That isn’t exactly a list of skill position players that
keep defensive coordinators up late at night. Hester is a terror on special teams, but the jury is still
out when it comes to wide receiver.
2nd year tight end Greg Olson is probably their most scary
skill position player.
What that translates into is 3 points scored in the first
half against the Chiefs in which the offense went 8 plays for 19 yards and 5
points against the Seahawks.
Seeing the offense doesn’t score a safety that is 3 more first half
points for the offense. That drive
went 10 plays for 51 yards.
There are some teams where a problem can be identified at
one position. With the Jags last
year it was wide receiver. The
Cowboys had secondary issues last season.
With the Bears the entire offense is a mess. The skill position players can’t do anything because the
offensive line can’t protect the quarterback or open up holes for the running
game. The quarterback can’t do
anything, because the line doesn’t give him time, the receivers aren’t very
solid, and the running game doesn’t set him up with manageable plays. Even if the line could block better it
isn’t going to look good with the players it is protecting. It’s a vicious cycle.
In 2005 and 2006 the only problem on this team was
quarterback. In 2005 the Bears
were able to go 11-5 with an offense that ranked 26th in points
scored and 29th in yards gained. That defense finished 1st in points allowed and 2nd
in yards allowed. I think the Bears
don’t have as good of a defensive unit as they did in 2005 and they have
additional problems on the line and at running back.
I’m very interested to see how this offense does in 2008 and
what that translates to in terms of their record. Even though that division is in a state of flux with Detroit
looking to get over the hump, Green Bay replacing a legend, and Minnesota
emerging it is going to be tough for the Bears to compete in that division with
their offensive woes.
A Look Ahead:
While it may have lost some significance in recent years, the third week
of the preseason is always the most important game of the preseason. It’s when we usually see the
starters play for an entire half.
The 2007 playoff teams were 9-3 in the 3rd week of the preseason
last year. The Cowboys lost to the
Texans, the Giants lost to the Jets, and the Packers lost to the Jaguars. Both the Jags and Packers made
the playoffs. Staying healthy is
always the first goal of preseason.
In the case of Tom Brady the Patriots aren’t going to try to win the 3rd
preseason game at the expense of their franchise. Still with starters expected to go into the 3rd
quarter I’m going to look at 5 key games, not so much in terms of who will win
the game, but the matchups I’m looking for in these games.
1) Philadelphia Eagles at New England: These are the two teams I predicted to
lose in the Conference Championship.
I don’t really care what New England’s offense looks like unless Tom
Brady is going to miss time to start the season. With the KGB type culture up in Foxboro who knows how bad
that foot is right now. My guess
is Brady will be ready to play in the opener. Tampa Bay abused New England’s defense on the opening
drive. I want to see New England’s
rebuilt defense play with some pride.
I want to see how they handle a speedy back like Westbrook. I don’t think Brady is going to play
and that should allow the Eagles to win this game. Winner:Philadelphia
2) Jacksonville at Tampa Bay – This is a matchup between two
playoff teams from a year ago. The
Bucs were very impressive in their opening drive against the Patriots opening
the game with a drive that lasted over 9 minutes and resulted in a touchdown. I want to see how Garcia looks in his
first action of the preseason. I
want to see how the Bucs run defense stops one of the best ground attacks in
the NFL. For Jacksonville, I want
to see how they put pressure on Garcia, a quarterback that doesn’t make many
mistakes but did have 3 of his 4 interceptions in 2007 against Jacksonville. I like how Tampa Bay is playing in the
preseason and the Jags still won’t have their receivers. I look for the Bucs in a close one. Winner:Tampa Bay
3) New York Giants at New York Jets: The Giants defensive line looked very
good against Cleveland. They
knocked Derek Anderson out of the game.
Here is what I’m looking for in this contest. How does the rebuilt line of the NY Jets handle one of the
premier defensive lines in the NFL?
How does Brett Favre look against the defense that kept his Packers out
of the Super Bowl in 2007? Can the
Jets run the ball against the Giants to give #4 a chance with play action
passing and relieve the pass rush?
Will Brett be forced into sacks and interceptions trying to dissect this
defense on his own? I don’t expect
a lot in Brett’s second preseason game.
I look for him to play above average, but in order to beat the NY Giants
first team he will have to be exceptional. I look for the Giants to win the game. Winner: NY Giants
4) Pittsburgh at Minnesota: This one is very simple too. I want to see how the Steelers ground game does against one
of the best defensive lines in the NFL.
I want to see how Jared Allen does against a team that allowed a ton of
sacks in 2007. Finally, I want to
see how Ward, Holmes, and Miller do against a secondary that gave up the most
passing yards in the NFL a year ago.
On the Vikings offense I want to see how Peterson and Taylor do against
a tough defense. I want to see how
the Vikings offense looks without Jackson who is questionable for the
opener. I like the Steelers to win
this game, but by a fairly low score.
Winner: Pittsburgh
5) Seattle at San Diego: I don’t expect Tomlinson to play too much, but I want to see
how Phillip Rivers and the passing game handle the Seattle pass rush. I want to see how the Seattle offense
runs against a Chargers team that was inconsistent against the run last
season. I want to see how the Seahawks
thin receiver core does in terms of getting open for Hasselbeck. How many coverage sacks is he going to
take? It’s tough to say who will
win this game, because of Tomlinson’s traditionally light workouts, but I think
San Diego will win this contest behind their vicious defense. Winner: San Diego
That’s all for this week. Next weeks newsletter will be full of recaps from Week 3 of
the preseason and will be light on the prediction side as teams rest most of
their key players the final week of preseason. I look forward to reading your comments.
It’s back. Last year I did a weekly newsletter of all the NFL Action. Due to the fact there was only one preseason game last week, I decided to hold off on my newsletter until this week. Again, while I appreciate feedback of things that I failed to mention, please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team. I could do a Newsletter for just one team. Trying to mention every team or player in one newsletter would be impossibility. I hereby present to you a recap of the third week of preseason action.
Standings
AFC EastNFC East
1.New York Jets (1-0) 1.Washington (2-0)
2. Buffalo (0-1) 2. Dallas (0-1)
3. Miami (0-1) 3. NY Giants (0-1)
4. New England (0-1) 4. Philadelphia (0-1)
AFC SouthNFC South
1. Houston (1-0) 1. Carolina (1-0)
2. Jacksonville (1-0) 2. New Orleans (1-0)
3. Tennessee (1-0) 3. Tampa Bay (1-0)
4. Indianapolis (0-2) 4. Atlanta (0-1)
AFC NorthNFC North
1.Baltimore (1-0) 1.Detroit (1-0)
2.Cincinnati (1-0) 2.Chicago (0-1)
3.Pittsburgh (1-0) 3.Green Bay (0-1)
4.Cleveland (0-1) 4.Minnesota (0-1)
AFC WestNFC West
1.Kansas City (1-0) 1. Seattle (1-0)
2. Oakland (1-0) 2. Arizona (0-1)
3. San Diego (1-0) 3. San Fran (0-1)
4. Denver (0-1) 4. St Louis (0-1)
MVP of the Week: It’s hard to go with MVPs of preseason games when the starters are only playing a couple series. Seneca Wallace had a fine opening to the preseason. He went 15 for 20 with 165 yards and 3 touchdown passes with no picks. Julius Peppers did very well for the Panthers. He sacked Sorgi, forced a fumble, and hurried him into an interception on the Colts first 2 possessions. It is crucial he rebound from 2.5 sacks in 2007. Aaron Rodgers also played a very solid game in his first start. He went 9 for 15 for 117 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 pick.
Game of the Week: Most fans aren’t going to watch 4 quarters of a preseason game unless it’s their favorite team. If you are a Panthers or Colts fan you saw a pretty good game. The Panthers took the Colts to OT and won 23-20. Carolina stopped Indy on a 4th and 1 at the Carolina 34 yard line and then proceeded to drive down the field for the game winning field goal.
The Bay of Pigs: Some years the games are not viewable. 10-7 finals. Punting exhibitions and penalty fests. For preseason there weren’t too many really bad games. I would say the worst games would go with a tie between San Fran vs. Oakland and Tampa Bay vs. Miami. Both teams had a half time score of 7-3. The Bucs threw for 181 yards to the Dolphins 134. Tampa out gained Miami on the ground 114-64. That final was 17-6. In Oakland, San Fran out passed Oakland 199-98. Oakland was able to dominate the ground 248-70. However, the result was only a final score of 18-6. Again, for a first preseason games nobody did too badly this week. I’ve seen a lot worse over the years.
The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action): Last year I had this named the Mike Martz Award for the stupid decision made by a player or coach that cost his team the victory. This was in honor of the man that used to challenge 7-yard plays and burn timeouts 3:00 minutes into the 3rd quarter when he was the headman for the Rams. Unless I see something incredibly stupid I tend not to give the award in the preseason. If you saw something like that this week make sure you leave it in the comments section.
Hospital Visit: There were a lot of significant injuries this week. The scariest injury of the weekend went to Denver linebacker Louis Green. Green lay motionless on the Reliant Stadium field for several minutes. Green was put on a stretcher and was moving his fingers and hands as he was taken from the field. Green was released from the hospital and all signs are that he will be okay.
Bobby Engram is going to be sidelined 6-8 weeks with a crack in his shoulder bone. He was the leading receiver from a year ago and the one veteran influence amongst a unit with a lot of question marks. Hasselbeck is going to be playing with a lot of unproven wide receivers. The Seahawks will need Engram back ASAP.
Madieu Williams suffered a neck injury and is expected to miss 6 weeks. That is a big injury for a team that was depending on him to sure up a secondary that ranked 32nd in passing yards allowed.
Charlie Batch was a big injury for the Steelers. He has been with them since 2003 as their backup quarterback. He broke his collarbone in Friday’s game against the Eagles and is expected to miss 10-weeks with that injury. That left Dennis Dixon as the backup, which prompted the signing of Byron Leftwich. If Big Ben were to go down for a couple weeks the Steelers could be in a big bind. Batch has filled in for Big Ben in the past and done very well for the Steelers.
Finally, Shawn Andrews just reported to camp this week, citing depression for the first 17 days he missed. Quoting the AP, "I'm willing to admit that I've been going through a very bad time with depression," Andrews told the Daily News in his first public comments about his training camp absence. "I've finally decided to get professional help. It's not something that blossomed up overnight. I'm on medication, trying to get better."
First of all, you have to hope that he is getting treatment and can recover from this. Situations like this remind you that there are bigger things going on in these guys life other than football. From a football standpoint, having your 2-time Pro Bowl guard out of camp for this reason is never a good thing. They need him to anchor that offensive line. He is a fantastic guard and is a big part of that football team.
Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:
1) Brett Favre – I am ready to be done talking about him from a non-football standpoint. It is good to see him in a camp and start being talked about as a football player and not as a distraction. When he starts making plays good or bad I would love to talk about those.
I think all NFL fans are glad that the soap opera part of the story is over. Now it would be nice if the announcers would move past it. The ESPN crew beat that horse to death on Thursday night with the Cardinals and the Saints. They picked right up where they left off on Monday Night.
When it comes to the NFL I like hearing about Favre more than just about anything, but enough is enough. He isn’t with the Cardinals, Saints, or Packers and to mention his name on every play is a bit silly. While some people will want to evaluate the trade on a play-by-play basis, it is going to take a year or two to ultimately find out if the Packers made the right call. A play-by-play analysis of Rodger’s development is as absurd as mentioning Favre’s name on every play.
2) Aaron Rodgers played solid, but… – I got the feeling that many people in the national media were looking for validation of the trade in that game. It’s a preseason game. Most teams play vanilla defenses. Cincinnati was a terrible defense in 2007.
Even if it meant everything in the world you can’t evaluate trades on a game-by-game basis. Here are two random game lines from two quarterbacks careers:
Both games were played in 2006. Both games were against Detroit where Detroit was the road team. The September game is Rex Grossman in a 34-7 victory over the Lions. The December game is Brett Favre in a 17-9 victory over Detroit. That doesn’t make Rex Grossman a better quarterback than Favre. He just played better against Detroit at home that year. Yet this is how many in the media is choosing to evaluate Rodgers vs. Favre.
Aaron Rodgers is probably under more pressure for a first year starter than any player in the history of the NFL. He is going to be inconsistent this year just like most first year starters are inconsistent. The important part of Monday’s game was to see how he responded to that pressure, something he did not handle well in the Family Night Scrimmage. Other than that you weren’t going to find much out.
Here was my impression of Rodgers. He impressed me in the sense that there wasn’t a throw he couldn’t make, something people have been talking about since he took over for Favre. He had good velocity on the ball. He had command of the offense. He didn’t stray from the pocket like many young quarterbacks do. Fleeing the pocket doesn’t give the play a chance to develop. He needs to feel the pressure a little better. He missed a safety blitz and was hit a number of times. If he does not improve in that area he will not play the full schedule. He also needs to work on his touch and accuracy.
He played a good game against a defense that was not very solid last year. He also did that without Grant or Jennings, two of the Packer’s biggest offensive weapons. My doubts haven’t been so much about his abilities as they have been about his ability to stay healthy.
Regardless of where you are at with this guy it is going to take a lot more games for anyone to make a determination about where he is at as a professional player. Put a check mark on the good column Monday Night. He played a solid game and will need to build off that game and keep getting better. Based on his attitude since March I would expect him to do just that.
3) Larry Johnson looked healthy – This is a guy that gained 1,750 yards on 5.2 yards per carry scoring 20 touchdowns in 2005. He set a NFL record with 416 carries for 1,789 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2006. He never looked right last season gaining 559 yards on 3.5 yards per carry and scoring only 3 touchdowns. He was hurt midseason against the Packers and missed the rest of the season.
Johnson ran for a touchdown on the Chiefs first drive as the Chiefs beat the Bears 24-20. He only had 8 carries for 18 yards, but had a nice run up the middle past Brian Urlacher for 7 yards and scored on a 5-yard touchdown.
People are very concerned about him for a couple reasons. The Chiefs quarterback situation dictates that defenses will concentrate on him. How he responds from a broken foot is going to be key if he is going to get the carries he needs for the Chiefs to be successful.
18 yards on eight carries is nothing to jump up and down about. But he had a couple nice runs and looked to have some of his explosiveness back. The Chiefs aren’t going to work him to hard in the preseason. This was an encouraging sign and is hopefully a sign of things to come.
4) Seattle impressive in opening win – It’s hard to tell what is what in the preseason. However, Seattle had a very nice opening game. They traveled to Minnesota and won 34-17. What was encouraging was 35 carries for 162 yards, which is an average of 4.6 yards per carry.
Again, it’s preseason. The Williams Brothers didn’t play 4 quarters. Allen wasn’t chasing the quarterback the whole time. The scored was tied 17-17 at the half, so the blowout happened with a lot of backups that won’t be on the field come Week 1.
This team is set at quarterback. Brees, Hasselbeck, and Romo are probably the three best quarterbacks in the NFC. Having a good quarterback will keep you in a lot of games. If Seattle can run the ball like they did against the Vikings that will be a big plus. Mare was also 2-2 on field goals and 4-4 on extra points, which is much better than his horrendous 2007 season. How he replaces Brown this year is critical for them winning close games in 2008.
I have questioned how this offense is going to do in 2008. Scoring 34 points on the road with an offense that has some questions is never a bad thing. However, Bobby Engram injuring his shoulder is a very bad thing. That leaves them even weaker at a position that has a lot of question marks. Regardless, Seattle impressed against a good team and deserves credit for that.
5) 49er’s quarterback situation – It was interesting to see JT O’Sullivan starting for the 49ers in their first preseason game. Nolan’s reason for that was that he knows what he has in Smith and Hill and wanted to see O’Sullivan work with the first team. If that doesn’t tell that Smith has hit rock bottom, I don’t know what will. Smith played in only 7 games and threw only 193 passes and you don’t want to see what your $49.5 million dollar investment looks like so that you can see what a 6th round pick from the 2002 draft looks like?
I’ve argued with quite a few 49ers that have argued that it is too early to label Smith a bust. If labeling Bust were the equivalent of a football game it would be 35-14 with about 4:00 minutes left in the game with Team Bust comfortably in the lead. If the coach is worried about what he has in JT O’Sullivan that is an obvious indicator that he isn’t too high on Alex Smith.
The reason O’Sullivan is getting a look is because he played in Detroit last year, which is where Martz coached. O’Sullivan has the best knowledge of the offense. I would not be shocked if he ends up starting the season as the number one quarterback for the 49ers.
A Look Ahead: It’s pretty hard to get hyped for the 2nd preseason game. Once the regular season starts I’m going to pick the best 5 games on the schedule. I’m not doing that with preseason games. There is going to be a lot of attention paid to the Jets and Redskins as this will be Favre’s first action with a team other than the Packers since 1991. People will be curious to see how he looks in this new offense. New England and Tampa Bay features two playoff teams. The Giants and Browns could be an entertaining matchup.
I’m not going to waste too much time previewing preseason games. As teams take the field for the second time we should start to see some trends and can start looking at possible concerns or possible things to be optimistic about. The key is that teams build some momentum and keep their players healthy. All in all it was a good week of preseason action and it is nice to have football back. Let me know what you thought about this week's developments in the NFL and your favorite team's performance in the preseason.
These are the teams I had making the 2008 NFL Playoffs:
AFC Playoff Teams
1)Jacksonville Jaguars 13-3
2)New England Patriots 13-3
3)San Diego Chargers 12-4
4)Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5
5)Indianapolis Colts 12-4
6)Cleveland Browns 10-6
NFC Playoff Teams
1) Dallas Cowboys 12-4
2) Minnesota Vikings 11-5
3) New Orleans Saints 10-6
4) Arizona Cardinals 9-7
5) Philadelphia Eagles 10-6
6) New York Giants 9-7
Since I have done those predictions there have been a few major transactions. First, the Saints acquired Jeremy Shockey, which helps bolster my confidence in the New Orleans pick. Second, Jason Taylor became a Redskin. While he does make the defense better, I don’t expect a big improvement from my 7-9 prediction, due to the questions I have on offense. The final move is Brett Favre being reinstated by the Packers.
The bottom line is that I can’t deal in hypotheticals. Favre is with the Packers right now and indications are that the Packers will not hold an “open competition.” It is clear that the Packers don’t want him there and that Favre wants to leave. I can’t see Favre opening the season there. The question is how long does it take to make the move? There could be a trade today to the Bucs or Jets or the Packers could allow this mess to spill into the season. It is anyone’s guess where this goes at this point. Thompson and Farve’s egos could allow this to drag out for a long time.
Either way it is going to set the Packers back in terms of their locker room, unless Rodgers plays at a MVP level from day one. That is an incredibly tough task for a player who has thrown 59 career passes. My opinion is that Favre could make a new team a Super Bowl contender, but until we see where he lands and how he gels with that new team it would be crazy to predict that when there are a lot of contending teams that have a lot more certainty.
Here is how I see the playoffs going based on where the 32 teams in the NFL stand at this moment.
AFC Wildcard Round
Cleveland Browns (10-6) at San Diego Chargers (12-4) – This one I would expect to be a lopsided. The Browns have a great offense, but Anderson didn’t always take care of the ball in 2007. While the Browns will be improved at stopping the run with Williams and Rodgers on the defensive line they won’t be good enough to stop LT. I think the big play defense of the Chargers and a healthy LT put up a bunch of points on the Browns who will be making their first playoff appearance since 1994.
Score:San Diego Chargers 35 – Cleveland Browns 17
Indianapolis Colts (12-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) – This would be a very interesting matchups. It was a classic back in the 2005 playoffs. Both quarterbacks have won Super Bowls. The Steelers were the champions in 2005. The Colts brought home the trophy in 2006. My concern about picking the Colts is that they usually stop playing their best football once the calendar turns to January. The Steelers having this game at home will be a huge advantage, although they lost at home playoff game last year to the Jags. The Colts actually seem to do worse in the playoff at home in recent years having lost there in the divisional round in both 2005 and 2007. The key is going to be which team can establish the running game and which quarterback will make the fewest mistakes. I would expect a very tough game going down to the wire with the Colts winning it at the end.
New York Giants (9-7) at New Orleans Saints (10-6) – The NY Giants will begin their title defense in the Big Easy. The Saints will look to win their first playoff game since they made the run to the NFC Championship Game in 2006. I think the NY Giants will try to do the same things they did last postseason. They will try to run the ball, put pressure on the quarterback, and avoid the big turnover. I think the difference will be that the Saints have just enough firepower on offense to make up for the deficiencies they have on defense. The Giants lost a lot of defenders this offseason, most notably future Hall of Famer Michael Strahan. Shockey gets his revenge against the Giants as the Saints win a close one.
Score:New Orleans Saints 27 – New York Giants 21
Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) at Arizona Cardinals (9-7) – I would also expect this to be a lopsided game. The Cardinals will be making their first playoff appearance since Jake Plummer led the Cardinals to the Divisional Round back in 1998. While they are able to pass the ball the Eagles set up well to stop the pass with Samuel, Brown, and Shepherd. The Cardinals have no answer for Westbrook and McNabb will play a good game as well. Eagles win big.
Indianapolis Colts (12-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (13-3) – If this matchup came to life what a treat this would be. The physical smash mouth style of the Jaguars collides with the high scoring air attack of the Colts. Divisional matchups in the playoffs are always intriguing. The Jaguars usually play the Colts tough and I would expect that the Jaguars could run the ball effectively against the smaller front of the Colts. The difference for the Jags is that with the addition of Harvey and Graves they will be able to put enough extra pressure on Manning to win a close game in Jacksonville.
Score:Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Indianapolis Colts 21
San Diego Chargers (12-4) at New England Patriots (13-3) – We’ve seen this matchup each of the last two years. Is this the year the Chargers can finally beat New England in the playoffs? I think the Chargers would have had a great chance to beat the Patriots last year had LT, Gates, and Rivers all been healthy. They put enough pressure on Brady to disrupt the passing game, but just weren’t able to convert in the redzone on offense. Settling for four field goals in a playoff game is a recipe for disaster. The Patriots are rebuilding their defense this season. Patriot fans will say that Brady never loses home playoff games, but then again he never lost Super Bowls until last season. Still, I think the Patriots will find a way to do what they do best, win a close playoff game in the 4th quarter.
Score:New England Patriots 28 – San Diego Chargers 21
New Orleans Saints (10-6) at Dallas Cowboys (12-4) – The Dallas Cowboys will have waited a year to atone for their home playoff loss to the New York Giants in 2007. This will be a good opponent for the Cowboys. A defense that Romo can look to put up some numbers against and build some confidence. Both offenses will be able to move the ball. The Cowboys don’t have a perfect defense, but they will be able to make enough plays with their solid pass rush to stop Brees and the Saints. I look for the Cowboys to win a high scoring game.
Score:Dallas Cowboys 42 – New Orleans Saints 28
Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) at Minnesota Vikings (11-5) – This is where Minnesota will regret having Jackson. While he is still developing he just doesn’t make enough plays to win playoff games when the defenses get better and the yards get tougher to come by. The Eagles have more than enough secondary help to put eight in the box and concentrate against Peterson and Taylor. While Westbrook will find rushing yards hard to come by, he still could score a couple big plays in the passing games. Eagles in a low scoring affair.
New England Patriots (13-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (13-3) – Jacksonville is the team I am picking to come out of the AFC. People still think of Jacksonville as this low scoring team that can’t put up enough points against the big offenses in the AFC. Jacksonville scored 411 points which ranked 6th in the NFL. That was despite Garrard missing 4 games with an injury. They finished the season winning 6 of their last 8 games and scored 32 points per game. Jones-Drew and Taylor are arguably the best running duo in the NFL not in Minnesota and Garrard really came on in the second half of the season.
The Patriots averaged 32.3 in their last 8 games, which compares favorably to the Jaguars. While people remember the 2007 Patriots as this 40.0-point per game juggernaut, the Patriots offense did not play at that level on a consistent basis after the first 8 games. The Jaguars had enough offensive talent to compete with the Patriots in the playoffs last year. The biggest difference was that the Jaguars didn’t have enough receiver speed to exploit the Patriot secondary and they didn’t have enough pass rushers to get to Brady. They tried to address that by adding Porter and Williamson. Porter is expected to miss training camp, but should be ready for the opener. Harvey and Groves will give the Jaguars players that can get to the quarterback.
The Jaguars have been knocking at the door the last few seasons. Last season was big in that they won a playoff game and should be more comfortable and experienced come playoff time. Outside the Patriots the Jaguars played as well as anyone the second half of the season last year. I believe that carries over to this season. This is the year the Jags represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
Score:Jacksonville Jaguars 34 – New England Patriots 27
Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) at Dallas Cowboys (12-4) – I really didn’t know what direction to go in the NFC. It seems like the NFC is up for grabs every year. No one would have predicted the NY Giants to win the Super Bowl in preseason and the ones that did should have abandoned the bandwagon after Week 2. Yet they not only made the playoffs, but also won 3 road playoff games and a neutral Super Bowl to capture the Lombardi Trophy.
There are a number of ways you could go with this. You could pick the Vikings to win it behind a 2,000-yard season by Peterson. You could pick the Saints to rebound with a more consistent offensive approach and a better defense that features Vilma, Ellis, ####, and McCray. You could go with the NY Giants to defend their crown. Some expect Seattle to make a final push with Holmgren, although I didn’t have them even making the playoffs.
Here is why I went with these two teams. Brian Westbrook is 29 years old. Running backs tend to go downhill at 30 years old. This is getting to be his final run as a featured offensive weapon. McNabb is 31 going on 32 and given his health issues he probably won’t be a 38-year old superstar. His last years are approaching. Jackson may have been the pick that gives them a breakthrough special teams player. The defense was very solid in 2007 and Samuel will make them that much tougher. Reid has a lot to prove after the drama he went through in 2007. The Eagles should be a hungry team in 2008.
This team has a wealth of playoff experience. When that many quality people have something at stake and not many more years to get over the hump they usually come through. I thought the Eagles would miss the playoffs with McNabb needing a year to recover from ACL surgery. I expect them to make another run through the NFC in 2008.
On to the Cowboys. People will say that Romo is Mr. September. That TO and Jones are an explosion waiting to happen in the locker room. That Phillips has a 0-4-playoff record. That the Cowboys last won a playoff game back in 1996.
While criticism is warranted, I think some of that criticism is excessive. Prior to Dallas Phillips had last been a head coach for a full season in 2000. He had lost all 3 playoff games on the road. One of those was the Music City Miracle. Romo has a 0-2-playoff record. Bradshaw was 1-2 to start the playoffs with his sole win being the Immaculate Reception. Peyton Manning went 0-3 before winning his first playoff game, including a 41-0 spanking by the Je
