I present to you my final preseason letter.  Sorry it is a little late coming to my blog, but the Labor Day holiday slowed me down.  Again, while I appreciate feedback of things that I failed to mention, please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team.  I could do a newsletter for just one team.  Trying to mention every team or player in one newsletter would be impossibility.  I hereby present to you a recap of the third week of preseason action. 

Standings

AFC East                                                                        NFC East

1. Miami (3-1)                                                              1.Washington (3-2)

2. NY Jets (3-1)                                                           2. Dallas (2-2)

3. Buffalo (2-2)                                                            3. New York Giants (2-2)

4. New England (0-4)                                                4. Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)

 

 AFC South                                                                    NFC South

1. Jacksonville (3-1)                                                    1. Tampa Bay (3-1)           

2. Tennessee (3-1)                                                      2. Atlanta (2-2)

3. Houston (2-2)                                                           3. Carolina (2-2)

4. Indianapolis (1-4)                                                    4. New Orleans (2-2)

 

AFC North                                                                     NFC North

1.Pittsburgh (3-1)                                                        1.Detroit (4-0)           

2.Cincinnati (2-2)                                                        2.Chicago (1-3)

3.Baltimore (1-3)                                                         3.Green Bay (1-3)

4.Cleveland (0-4)                                                        4. Minnesota (1-3)

 

AFC West                                                                        NFC West

1. San Diego (3-1)                                                     1. Seattle (3-1)           

2. Denver (2-2)                                                           2. Arizona (2-2)

3. Kansas City (2-2)                                                  3. St Louis (2-2)

4. Oakland (1-3)                                                        4. San Francisco (2-2)

Best Team of the Preseason:  It would have to be the Detroit Lions.  They were the only team to go undefeated with a 4-0 record.  They outscored their opponents 80-32 in those four wins.  Their 48-point differential was the best in the NFL.  We’ll see how that translates into regular season success, but this team played better than anyone throughout the preseason.

Worst Team of the Preseason:  It would be a toss up between the New England Patriots and the Cleveland Browns.  Both teams went 0-4 and were the only two teams not to win a single preseason game.  Both teams were outscored by 33-points in the preseason.  New England never put Brady on the field.  Cleveland didn’t play a lot of starters either and managed to get their starting QB hurt with a concussion in their second preseason game.  Both of these teams will have to hope the preseason means absolutely nothing.

Individual Winner of the Preseason:  You could go a lot of ways with this, but I would think Kurt Warner was the big winner of the preseason.  Matt Leinart was expected to be the starter.  Arizona all but tried to hand the job to him.  Instead, he cemented the deal with his 3-pick performance against Oakland.  Warner was quickly named the starter for the opener.  This was a job that was not thought to be in serious competition and Warner emerged as the starter.  It is a big break for the veteran who is probably getting his last shot as a starter in the NFL.

Individual Loser of the Preseason:  It goes without saying that Matt Leinart would also be here.  So, I’ll talk about another player.  Alex Smith.  In 2005 Alex Smith was the big winner in the Smith vs. Rodgers sweepstakes.  Smith was the number one overall pick and received a 20 plus million signing bonus.  He was able to start games his rookie year.  Rodgers went to Green Bay to back up Favre when he plummeted to the end of the first round.  He has thrown 59 passes.  Fast-forward to the 2008 opener and Rodgers is now the starter for a team that is extremely young and promising.  Smith is now the backup to  J.T. O'Sullivan who was a 6th round pick in 2002 and has bounced around the NFL since.  What looked like a blessing for Smith has turned into a nightmare and what looked like a no win situation for Rodgers has turned into one with a lot of promise.  While no one envies Aaron Rodger’s position of having to replace #4, it is infinitely better than what Alex Smith is going through.

The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action):  Still waiting for the regular season on this. 

Overall Impressions of the Preseason:  I’m not going to get into too much detail with this.  I gave my thoughts on 10 topics last week, so there isn’t a whole lot of different information to report based on preseason games where most first units played a series or two. 

What I did want to write about is the topic that the preseason is too long.  Our society is very impatient when it comes to self-gratification.  We want our wants to be fulfilled right now.  While the first week of preseason brings excitement by the second week we want our fantasy leagues to start and we want our NFL football.   When one of our favorite football players gets hurt in the preseason it makes us even more mad that our favorite team was forced to go through four preseason games.

I am in favor of the preseason as it stands right now.  Injuries are part of the game.  If you have only one preseason game than players stand to get hurt in the opener or the second game of the season.  Better to have a star player go down in preseason where you have time to sign a player that another team had to cut or move in another player on the roster and give him a chance to become acclimated with the first unit.  Had Osi Umenyiora gone down in Week 2 of the regular season the Giants would have been no better off than they are now and bringing back Michael Strahan would not have been a very viable option.  While Strahan did eventually turn the Giants down, at least bringing him back was an option, because it was still preseason.

Preseason helps undrafted rookies and unheard of free agents win jobs.  Does Terrell Davis become the starting running back in 1995 without four games in the preseason to show his stuff?  Does JT O’Sullivan win the job this year without four games to show what he can do? 

The preseason isn’t about the star players.  It’s a chance for the unheard of guy to make a roster and that is an important part of the NFL.  Teams need time to practice so they can look sharp in the opener.  Teams start off slow enough as it is as they look for timing and chemistry.  It would be even worse without the four game practice session.   

While preseason is not my favorite part of the NFL I understand it’s a necessity. Baseball, Basketball, and Hockey have preseason games.  Why should the NFL be any different?  I am just glad that on Thursday the games are for real. 

A Look Ahead:  Last year I only picked the 5 most important games.  This year I am going to pick every game and list my running record at the top of the page.  I will touch on the five most important games of that week and just write a few sentences about the rest.  I am not picking against the spread.  Just straight up winners and losers.  Here is the opening slate of games:

1) Washington at New York Giants:  This is going to be another NFC East slugfest.  Defending Champions always have a bull’s eye on their back and for the NY Giants it will be no different.  Eli Manning is going to have to play with the same composure he did through out the postseason last year.  The Giants losses on defense from a year ago will not make the NY Giants bottom out as a unit, but are significant.  The Redskins are now in the Jim Zorn era and look to win their first game.  I like the Giants in the opener.  I don’t think the Redskins have an explosive enough offense and the Redskins are pretty injured on the defense line.  Jason Taylor is expected to play, but how well is a different question.  I think the Giants are able to establish the run, capitalize on some play action passing and win the game.  Winner:  NY Giants

2) Jacksonville at Tennessee: Early division games are always important and this one is no different.  The AFC South is a loaded division and both these teams made the playoffs in 2007.  The Jaguars ended last season as one of the hottest teams in the NFL and look to open with that form.  The Titans are still very similar to last season.  Strong defense, good running game, and questionable pass game.  They were able to beat the Jags in last season’s opener behind a running game explosion.  I don’t expect that to happen this year.  I think the Jags stop the run much better this time around and I think the Jags open up the season with a much-needed road win.  It will be low scoring, but the Jags have the backs and the defense to win that type of game.  Winner:  Jacksonville

3) Dallas at Cleveland:  This is a very intriguing matchup between two very explosive offenses.  The Cowboy’s offense features TO, who has been one of the best in the business for several years now.  The Browns offense features Braylon Edwards, who exploded onto the scene in his 3rd year.  Both are touchdown machines.  Edwards was second in the NFL with 16 touchdown catches and Owens was third with 15 touchdown catches.  However, that is really where the intrigue stops.  The Cowboys have a massive offensive line and while the Browns front 7 is improved, it isn’t improved enough.  They will either have to stack the box and let Owens go through their secondary or they will have to double Owens and watch Barber destroy them.  I expect the Cowboys to put up a lot of points and win this high scoring game.  Winner:  Dallas

4) Chicago at Indianapolis: Another AFC vs. NFC game.  Lost in the fact that Green Bay is Chicago’s biggest rivalry is the fact that these teams are only a couple hours apart and the Indiana vs. Illinois rivalry is very strong too.  Both these teams met in the Super Bowl just 2 seasons ago.  While it will never have the intensity of Packers vs. Bears, it is still a good game to watch every four years.  Chicago has a chance in this game if their offense can move the ball and not make silly mistakes.  I don’t expect Manning to go 35 for 45 for 400 yards and 5 touchdowns seeing he just started practicing a week a go.  The Colts will hope to feature a strong running game and let Manning get into a flow after missing so much time.  I think the Bears could force some Colt’s mistakes, particularly in the first half.  However, I don’t think they have the offense to take advantage of that.  I look for the Colts to win their opener in their new stadium:  Winner:  Indy

5) Minnesota at Green Bay: The first game of the post Favre era kicks off in Green Bay against longtime rival Minnesota.  This was supposed to be a celebration of one of the greatest careers the NFL has ever seen.  Instead, Favre is now a Jet and the comparisons will start with this game.  Each player will be evaluated versus the other.  Each teams wins and losses will be compared with the other.  The biggest story of the 2008 season will be how Rodgers does compared to Favre and how the Packers do compared to the Jets.  I like the Vikings in this game.  I think they are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder, as they became part of this soap opera when they were charged and later cleared of tampering with Favre.  Nothing would please them more than to embarrass the Packers.  I think Peterson and Taylor will be able to establish the run against the Packers front 7.  Grant has had a sore hamstring the entire season.  I don’t look for him to be effective against this tough run defense.  With no running game, I don’t expect Rodgers to have a great night.  I think his biggest strength will be play action passing and using his mobility to get out of the pocket.  It’s hard to do that if the running game isn’t working.  I think the Minnesota Front 7 will put pressure on Rodgers and force some sacks and turnovers.  It should be a close game, but I expect the Vikings to prevail.  Winner:  Minnesota

and the rest…

6) Detroit at Atlanta:  Detroit uses it’s preseason momentum and strong receiving core to prevail in Atlanta:  Winner:  Detroit

7) Seattle at Buffalo: I already have a lot of Hawks fans upset and this isn't going to help repair my image.  This has the potential to be the upset of the week.  Seattle isn’t a very good road team and has a lot of receivers that are injured now.  They played well in the preseason, but this is the regular season.  Buffalo is a tough place to play and looks to be improved from a year ago.  Seattle defense will play well and keep it close.  I am still going with Seattle, but I expect a very close game.  Winner:  Seattle

8) NY Jets at Miami: I look for the Jets to simplify the playbook.  Expect a light day for Favre and a heavy dose of Jones and Washington.  Jets win their opening game against an improved Dolphin team.  Winner:  NY Jets

9) Kansas City at New England:  Now that the games matter and Brady is playing expect a better effort.  Patriots win in their opener and win big.  Winner:  New England

10) Tampa Bay at New Orleans:  New Orleans played Tampa Bay awful last year.  One blowout and one gift.  I look for New Orleans to turn that around this year.  I like Brees to have a good day and the Saints to prevail:  Winner:  New Orleans

11) St Louis at Philadelphia:  St Louis has a world of problems on defense.  Philly has some concerns on offense with Curtis out.  Philly still has the better team.  Westbrook wins the showdown with Jackson and Eagles win the game.  Winner:  Philadelphia

12) Houston at Pittsburgh:  Pittsburgh has a lot to prove after their disappointing end to the season.  Houston is improved, but not enough to go to Pittsburgh and win.  Steelers in a close one.  Winner:  Pittsburgh

13) Cincinnati at Baltimore:  Cincinnati always plays Baltimore strong.  Bengals come into this game a little hurt at the receiver spot, but I expect the offense to play well enough to escape Baltimore with a win.  Winner:  Cincinnati

14) Carolina at San Diego:  Chargers have one of the deepest teams in the NFL.  They may need it with all the injuries they have.  I expect them to play tough at home on both sides of the ball and win a close one against the Smithless Panthers.  Winner:  San Diego

15) Arizona at San Francisco:  Warner is going to have a big day in this game.  49ers may be able to put up some points in this game, but not enough to win against Arizona.  Winner:  Arizona

16) Denver at Oakland:  I don’t know which to pick here.  Oakland runs the ball very well and Denver couldn’t stop it last year.  The same applies to the Denver running game and Raider rush defense.  The Broncos are without Marshall who is one of their biggest weapons.  That is huge for the Raiders.  On the flip side Russell is going to have to pass against a very tough secondary.  I like Denver to run the ball well in this game and pull out a close win.  Winner:  Denver

That’s all for this week.  Enjoy the opening week of football and I look forward to reading your comments this week.  

It’s back.  This is my second preseason letter.  I didn’t do one the opening week with just the Hall of Fame Game on the slate.  Again, while I appreciate feedback of things that I failed to mention, please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team.  I could do a Newsletter for just one team.  Trying to mention every team or player in one newsletter would be impossibility.  I hereby present to you a recap of the third week of preseason action. 

Standings

 AFC East                                                                        NFC East

1. Buffalo (1-1)                                                            1.Washington (3-0)

2. Miami (1-1)                                                             2. NY Giants (1-1)

3. New York Jets (1-1)                                              3. Philadelphia (1-1)

4. New England (0-2)                                                4. Dallas (0-2)

 

AFC South                                                                        NFC South

1. Houston (2-0)                                                            1. Tampa Bay (2-0)           

2. Tennessee (2-0)                                                       2. Carolina (1-1)

3. Jacksonville (1-1)                                                     3. New Orleans (1-1)

4. Indianapolis (1-2)                                                     4. Atlanta (0-2)

 

AFC North                                                                        NFC North

1.Baltimore (1-1)                                                           1.Detroit (2-0)           

2.Cincinnati (1-1)                                                          2.Minnesota (1-1)

3.Pittsburgh (1-1)                                                          3.Chicago (0-2)

4.Cleveland (0-2)                                                          4.Green Bay (0-2)

 

AFC West                                                                        NFC West

1.Denver (1-1)                                                            1. Seattle (2-0)           

2. Kansas City (1-1)                                                   2. Arizona (1-1)

3. Oakland (1-1)                                                         3. San Fran (1-1)

4. San Diego (1-1)                                                     4. St Louis (1-1)

MVP of the Week:  Matt Schaub had a terrific performance this week.  He went 14 for 16 for 187 yards and 2 touchdown tosses while throwing 0 interceptions.  He posted a 154.9 QB rating.  Michael Turner was very productive for the Falcons.  While he carried the ball only 4 times he had 113 yards, including a 63-yard dash. Finally, Brandon Coutu had a very nice game going 5 for 5 on field goals and 2-2 on extra points.  Included in those field goals was a 48-yard and 46-yard kick.  But Domenik Hixon had the best performance of all.  He had 2 receiving touchdowns and a return touchdown in the first quarter as the NY Giants built a 23-3 first quarter lead.  That effort propelled them to a 37-34 victory. 

Loser of the Week:  I would go with the New England defense, the Cleveland Browns, and the Green Bay Packers.  The Patriots rebuilt their secondary and linebackers this off-season.  It looked woefully inadequate Sunday Night.  Brain Griese went 8-8 on the first drive on a 17-play drive that consumed 9:38 seconds.  The Patriots trailed 17-3 at the half and 27-3 after three quarters, before losing 27-10.  Granted Tom Brady didn’t play which limited the offense, but I was not impressed with the Patriots defense against what I consider a pretty average offense.  It is probably nothing to worry about at this stage, but that needs to get fixed up.  

Then there were the Browns.  This is a classic example of how preseason scores can be misleading.  If you looked at the final you see a 37-34 game.  It looks like both teams getting in good work in a high scoring game.  Hidden in that score is that the NY Giants first team destroyed the Browns first team to the tune of a 30-3 lead in the early part of the second quarter.  That was an embarrassing game by the first string and is something they will need to address next week when they take on the Detroit Lions. 

Green Bay I will discuss later in my Impressions of the Week.

Game of the Week: I’m going to go with another preseason overtime game.  The Seahawks and Bears played to a 26-26 tie, before the Hawks broke the tie with a field goal in overtime.  The Seahawks were down 10 points entering the 4th quarter before they ran off 17 points.  Kellen Davis tied the game with 2:50 left in the 4th quarter.  Brandon Coutu nailed a 36-yard field goal early in the overtime to give the Hawks the win.  Honorable mention to the Cleveland Browns and NY Giants. 

The Bay of Pigs:  Has to be that 7-6 gem the Chargers and the Rams put up in St Louis.  The Chargers kicked a pair of first quarter field goals and the Rams scored the lone touchdown in the third quarter.  

The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action):  Still waiting for the regular season on this. 

Hospital Visit:  Chad Johnson suffered a sprained shoulder.  He has already been ruled out for next week’s game and Marvin Lewis said he could be questionable for the season opener. 

Tavaris Jackson hurt his knee in the Viking’s win.  The Vikings quarterback strained his MCL.  He is expected to miss next week, but should be okay for the season opener. 

Tom Brady didn’t even travel to Tampa Bay, because of an undisclosed injury.  It is believed that he has a sore foot.  It is on the same foot that bothered him in the Super Bowl, but a different injury.  It is uncertain whether he will play in the rest of the preseason.

Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:

1) The New York Bretts – Brett Favre had about as good of a debut as one could hope for.  He went 5 for 6 for for 48 yards and 1 touchdown pass in 2 drives.   It was arguably his best preseason game since 2000 as he posted a 139.6 QB rating.  

No, he does not yet have complete command of the offense.  The Jets had about 40 plays for him to use in that game.  Two drives aren’t enough to tell if he is ready to run the offense for 60 minutes.  He needs to show he understands the offense enough to run a 2-minute no huddle offense and that his stamina is good enough to play well deep into the 4th quarter.  I expect those things to come, but you can’t learn about that in 6 pass attempts and 2 series.

However, there were two things that were clear, 1) The team and the New York Jets fan base have been electrified by this signing.  There was a very nice buzz in the air surrounding the game.  2) Favre still looks extremely sharp.  He had a 19-yard pass to Cotchery that was a beautiful touch pass down the field.  He also looked of the safety perfectly on the Keller touchdown.  About his only bad play was a sack he took on the first drive, which is still better than throwing a pick in that spot. 

It’s going to take several games for Favre to get on the same page with his teammates.  There are going to be times where it looks great and times where it doesn’t.  His first game keeps the optimism at a very high level and gives the Jets something to build on.  Excellent first start for Favre.

2) The Rams need Steven Jackson – The Rams need to get Steven Jackson’s contract figured out fast.  In 2 preseason games the Rams have looked horrific on offense.  They scored just 7 points in their 7-6 win against San Diego.  They lost 34-13 in their opener to Tennessee.

Couple things in the Rams defense.  Jackson would not have played 4 quarters in those games.  While they only had 76 yards against the Titans on the ground they did record 183 rushing yards against the Chargers.  This isn’t so much an opinion I have because the offense has struggled in preseason.  I feel they need him, because of what he has meant to their offense the last 2 regular seasons. 

Jackson got hurt in Week 3 last season.  He came back in Week 8.  The result was a 0-4 record in which the Rams scored 7 points against the Cowboys, 3 points against the Ravens, and 6 points against the Seahawks.  The only game the offense looked good in was the 34-31 loss to Arizona.

Steven Jackson is a beast.  In 2006 he recorded 2,334 yards from scrimmage, which ranks 5th in NFL history.  It was only 95 yards shy of Marshall Faulk’s 1999 NFL record.  He also scored 16 touchdowns that season.  Last year despite missing those 4 starts he still recorded 1,002 yards rushing and scored 5 touchdowns.  He scored a touchdown in 6 of the 9 games after he came back from injury.

This holdout is looking a lot like Larry Johnson last season.  It looks like it could drag into the eve of the regular season.  It will take him a couple games to warm up.  Holdouts of this nature can be a precursor to injuries. 

The Rams can’t afford that.  On paper they don’t appear particularly strong even with Jackson in the lineup.  While Holt and Bulger can move the ball through the air they won’t be nearly as effective if defenses don’t have Steven Jackson to contend with.  This offense needs a healthy Steven Jackson this season.  The Rams need to get him into camp ASAP to put him in the best possible position to do that.

3) Pack took a big step back – Lost in the Aaron Rodgers vs. Brett Favre story is that both players play with 50 other players.  The story out of this game has been that Aaron Rodgers took a step back.  Aaron Rodgers is not the only story on this team.  In terms of preseason losses this is about as bad as it gets and Rodgers was not the only concern. 

The Brown’s first team at least got thumped by the defending champions.  The Patriots lost to a playoff team without Brady.  Granted the Packers didn’t have some key players, mainly Grant and Jennings, but San Fran is a bad football team.  

The first problem is the offense did nothing to move the ball.  The Packers gained 46 yards of total offense in the first half.  Their two scoring drives for field goals featured a 4-play drive for -6 yards.  The other drive was 4 plays for 2 yards.  Rodgers was sacked 4 times.  He had several passes that were dropped, including a sure touchdown grab by Donald Lee.  The Packers managed only 101 yards rushing against a team that gave up 248 yards rushing to Oakland just a week ago.   They also lost 3 fumbles.

Then there was the defense.  The Packers allowed the 49er offense to go 15 plays for 87 yards and take off 9:15 of game clock in the second quarter.  They allowed O’Sullivan to go 8 for 17 for 154 yards and 1 touchdown and 1 interception.  The touchdown pass to Morgan was for 59 yards.

I’m not one to hit the panic button because of a bad preseason game.  Al Harris and Charles Woodson weren’t playing on that 87-yard drive.  Ryan Grant and Greg Jennings weren’t on the field.  Those are big factors.

Again, what I didn’t like is that I don’t think San Fran is a very good football team.  They ranked 32 in scoring, 32 in offensive yards, and 32nd in first downs in 2007.  They scored 6 points against the Raiders last week.  Their defense ranked 20th in points allowed and 25th in yards allowed last year.  This is a defense that should be scored on.  It is not a team that should have beat the Packers 34-6. 

The Packers have a big test in front of them.  Not only Rodgers, but the entire team is going to receive more scrutiny because of the Favre situation than possibly any team in the history of the NFL.  They played okay in a 20-17 loss to Cincy.  Then they took a terrible step back to a mediocre football team.  They need to play a good game and establish a rhythm against Denver.  They need to get Jennings and Grant on the field to get reps with Rodgers.

Denver is historically as tough of a venue as any in the NFL.  It will be good to see how they handle that atmosphere.  It’s difficult to know what to take out of Saturday’s game, but hopefully for the Packers it was just a case of a flat preseason performance.

4) Houston Texans impressing in preseason – Houston and Detroit are probably the most impressive non-postseason team in this preseason.  Seeing Matt Millen isn’t running the Texans they get the advantage.  They played very well at the Super Dome on Saturday.  Schaub went 14 for 16 for 187 yards and 2 touchdowns with 0 picks.  Rookie Steve Slaton played well with 13 carries for 57 yards and a rushing touchdown.  The Texans won 31-27.  The game before that they beat Denver 19-16.  Schaub was 4 for 5 for 29 yards. 

The Texans had a good season last year.  Despite losing Schaub for 5 starts, Andre Johnson for 7 starts, and Ahman Green for 11 starts they managed to go 7-3 outside of the division and 8-8 overall.  They won 3 of their last 4 games.  It was their 1-5 record in the division that killed them and that lone win came against a resting Jaguars team on the final day of the season.

The Colts still should be strong and the Jaguars look to be improved from a year ago.  The Titans are always going to play people tough.  I would pick the Texans to make the playoffs out of the AFC North, West, and possibly the East.  The South is going to make for tough wins in the division again in 2008.  If the Texans are going to win Schaub and Johnson must stay healthy and if Green doesn’t stay healthy Steve Slaton or Chris Brown must emerge.   Green strained his groin on the first carry of the Bronco game and did not play against the Saints.  That is not a good sign for a guy that has missed 19 games since 2005. 

This is a young team that needs to continue to improve and they look to be doing just that.  While it will be tough to make the playoffs out of the stacked AFC South the Texans are a team that I believe has a chance to compete for a final wild card spot with Buffalo, Denver, NY Jets, if they stay healthy this year.   So far they are doing the right things in preseason.

5) Chicago Bears are really struggling – I’m not sure what to expect out of the Bears in terms of wins and losses, but one thing that I expect is that this will be arguably the worst offense in the NFL this season. 

The first problem is a bad quarterback and worse quarterback.  The Bears are trying to flip a coin to decide which puts the team in the best position to not completely stink up the field.  Grossman has a 66.9 QB rating in two preseason games.  He played fairly well against Kansas City and stunk against Seattle.  Orton has a 76.4 rating and has yet to throw a touchdown pass or interception.  Neither has established himself as the front-runner.   Yet the Bears named Orton the starting quarterback for the season opener.  Hopefully he has shown more in practice than he did in the games. 

The offensive line was supposed to be in rebuilding mode behind the drafting of Chris Williams.  Fred Miller and Rueben Brown were both let go to help this line get younger.  Williams was an injury concern entering the draft, because of neck and back issues.  Chris Williams now has a herniated disc and could miss most of or all of the NFL season.  Even if he does comeback he will be way behind the curve and his rookie season is going to be a lost season at best.

Then there are the skill positions.  Marty Booker, Brandon Lloyd, Rashied Davis, Devon Hester, and Mark Bradley are expected to be the Bears receivers this season.  Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson will get the majority of the carries.  That isn’t exactly a list of skill position players that keep defensive coordinators up late at night.  Hester is a terror on special teams, but the jury is still out when it comes to wide receiver.  2nd year tight end Greg Olson is probably their most scary skill position player.  

What that translates into is 3 points scored in the first half against the Chiefs in which the offense went 8 plays for 19 yards and 5 points against the Seahawks.   Seeing the offense doesn’t score a safety that is 3 more first half points for the offense.  That drive went 10 plays for 51 yards.

There are some teams where a problem can be identified at one position.  With the Jags last year it was wide receiver.  The Cowboys had secondary issues last season.  With the Bears the entire offense is a mess.  The skill position players can’t do anything because the offensive line can’t protect the quarterback or open up holes for the running game.  The quarterback can’t do anything, because the line doesn’t give him time, the receivers aren’t very solid, and the running game doesn’t set him up with manageable plays.  Even if the line could block better it isn’t going to look good with the players it is protecting.  It’s a vicious cycle. 

In 2005 and 2006 the only problem on this team was quarterback.  In 2005 the Bears were able to go 11-5 with an offense that ranked 26th in points scored and 29th in yards gained.  That defense finished 1st in points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed.  I think the Bears don’t have as good of a defensive unit as they did in 2005 and they have additional problems on the line and at running back.

I’m very interested to see how this offense does in 2008 and what that translates to in terms of their record.  Even though that division is in a state of flux with Detroit looking to get over the hump, Green Bay replacing a legend, and Minnesota emerging it is going to be tough for the Bears to compete in that division with their offensive woes.  

A Look Ahead:  While it may have lost some significance in recent years, the third week of the preseason is always the most important game of the preseason.   It’s when we usually see the starters play for an entire half.  The 2007 playoff teams were 9-3 in the 3rd week of the preseason last year.  The Cowboys lost to the Texans, the Giants lost to the Jets, and the Packers lost to the Jaguars.   Both the Jags and Packers made the playoffs.  Staying healthy is always the first goal of preseason.   In the case of Tom Brady the Patriots aren’t going to try to win the 3rd preseason game at the expense of their franchise.  Still with starters expected to go into the 3rd quarter I’m going to look at 5 key games, not so much in terms of who will win the game, but the matchups I’m looking for in these games.   

1) Philadelphia Eagles at New England:  These are the two teams I predicted to lose in the Conference Championship.  I don’t really care what New England’s offense looks like unless Tom Brady is going to miss time to start the season.  With the KGB type culture up in Foxboro who knows how bad that foot is right now.  My guess is Brady will be ready to play in the opener.  Tampa Bay abused New England’s defense on the opening drive.  I want to see New England’s rebuilt defense play with some pride.  I want to see how they handle a speedy back like Westbrook.  I don’t think Brady is going to play and that should allow the Eagles to win this game.  Winner:  Philadelphia 

2) Jacksonville at Tampa Bay – This is a matchup between two playoff teams from a year ago.  The Bucs were very impressive in their opening drive against the Patriots opening the game with a drive that lasted over 9 minutes and resulted in a touchdown.  I want to see how Garcia looks in his first action of the preseason.  I want to see how the Bucs run defense stops one of the best ground attacks in the NFL.  For Jacksonville, I want to see how they put pressure on Garcia, a quarterback that doesn’t make many mistakes but did have 3 of his 4 interceptions in 2007 against Jacksonville.  I like how Tampa Bay is playing in the preseason and the Jags still won’t have their receivers.  I look for the Bucs in a close one.  Winner:  Tampa Bay

3) New York Giants at New York Jets:  The Giants defensive line looked very good against Cleveland.  They knocked Derek Anderson out of the game.  Here is what I’m looking for in this contest.  How does the rebuilt line of the NY Jets handle one of the premier defensive lines in the NFL?  How does Brett Favre look against the defense that kept his Packers out of the Super Bowl in 2007?  Can the Jets run the ball against the Giants to give #4 a chance with play action passing and relieve the pass rush?  Will Brett be forced into sacks and interceptions trying to dissect this defense on his own?  I don’t expect a lot in Brett’s second preseason game.  I look for him to play above average, but in order to beat the NY Giants first team he will have to be exceptional.  I look for the Giants to win the game.  Winner: NY Giants

4) Pittsburgh at Minnesota:  This one is very simple too.  I want to see how the Steelers ground game does against one of the best defensive lines in the NFL.  I want to see how Jared Allen does against a team that allowed a ton of sacks in 2007.  Finally, I want to see how Ward, Holmes, and Miller do against a secondary that gave up the most passing yards in the NFL a year ago.  On the Vikings offense I want to see how Peterson and Taylor do against a tough defense.  I want to see how the Vikings offense looks without Jackson who is questionable for the opener.  I like the Steelers to win this game, but by a fairly low score.  Winner: Pittsburgh

5) Seattle at San Diego:  I don’t expect Tomlinson to play too much, but I want to see how Phillip Rivers and the passing game handle the Seattle pass rush.  I want to see how the Seattle offense runs against a Chargers team that was inconsistent against the run last season.  I want to see how the Seahawks thin receiver core does in terms of getting open for Hasselbeck.  How many coverage sacks is he going to take?  It’s tough to say who will win this game, because of Tomlinson’s traditionally light workouts, but I think San Diego will win this contest behind their vicious defense.  Winner: San Diego

That’s all for this week.  Next weeks newsletter will be full of recaps from Week 3 of the preseason and will be light on the prediction side as teams rest most of their key players the final week of preseason.  I look forward to reading your comments.  

It’s back.  Last year I did a weekly newsletter of all the NFL Action.  Due to the fact there was only one preseason game last week, I decided to hold off on my newsletter until this week.  Again, while I appreciate feedback of things that I failed to mention, please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team.  I could do a Newsletter for just one team.  Trying to mention every team or player in one newsletter would be impossibility.  I hereby present to you a recap of the third week of preseason action. 

Standings

 AFC East                                                                        NFC East

1.New York Jets (1-0)                                               1.Washington (2-0)

2. Buffalo (0-1)                                                            2. Dallas (0-1)

3. Miami  (0-1)                                                            3. NY Giants (0-1)

4. New England (0-1)                                               4. Philadelphia (0-1) 

 

AFC South                                                                 NFC South

1. Houston (1-0)                                                        1. Carolina (1-0)           

2. Jacksonville (1-0)                                                 2. New Orleans (1-0)

3. Tennessee (1-0)                                                   3. Tampa Bay (1-0)

4. Indianapolis (0-2)                                                 4. Atlanta (0-1)

 

AFC North                                                                 NFC North

1.Baltimore (1-0)                                                      1.Detroit (1-0)           

2.Cincinnati (1-0)                                                     2.Chicago (0-1)

3.Pittsburgh (1-0)                                                     3.Green Bay (0-1)

4.Cleveland (0-1)                                                    4.Minnesota (0-1)

 

AFC West                                                                 NFC West

1.Kansas City (1-0)                                                 1. Seattle (1-0)           

2. Oakland (1-0)                                                       2. Arizona (0-1)

3. San Diego (1-0)                                                   3. San Fran (0-1)

4. Denver (0-1)                                                         4. St Louis (0-1)

MVP of the Week:  It’s hard to go with MVPs of preseason games when the starters are only playing a couple series.  Seneca Wallace had a fine opening to the preseason. He went 15 for 20 with 165 yards and 3 touchdown passes with no picks.   Julius Peppers did very well for the Panthers.  He sacked Sorgi, forced a fumble, and hurried him into an interception on the Colts first 2 possessions.  It is crucial he rebound from 2.5 sacks in 2007.  Aaron Rodgers also played a very solid game in his first start.  He went 9 for 15 for 117 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 pick.

Game of the Week:  Most fans aren’t going to watch 4 quarters of a preseason game unless it’s their favorite team.  If you are a Panthers or Colts fan you saw a pretty good game.  The Panthers took the Colts to OT and won 23-20.  Carolina stopped Indy on a 4th and 1 at the Carolina 34 yard line and then proceeded to drive down the field for the game winning field goal.       

The Bay of Pigs:  Some years the games are not viewable.  10-7 finals.  Punting exhibitions and penalty fests.  For preseason there weren’t too many really bad games.  I would say the worst games would go with a tie between San Fran vs. Oakland and Tampa Bay vs. Miami.  Both teams had a half time score of 7-3.  The Bucs threw for 181 yards to the Dolphins 134.  Tampa out gained Miami on the ground 114-64.  That final was 17-6.  In Oakland, San Fran out passed Oakland 199-98.  Oakland was able to dominate the ground 248-70.  However, the result was only a final score of 18-6.  Again, for a first preseason games nobody did too badly this week.  I’ve seen a lot worse over the years.

The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action):  Last year I had this named the Mike Martz Award for the stupid decision made by a player or coach that cost his team the victory.  This was in honor of the man that used to challenge 7-yard plays and burn timeouts 3:00 minutes into the 3rd quarter when he was the headman for the Rams.  Unless I see something incredibly stupid I tend not to give the award in the preseason.  If you saw something like that this week make sure you leave it in the comments section.

Hospital Visit:  There were a lot of significant injuries this week.  The scariest injury of the weekend went to Denver linebacker Louis Green.  Green lay motionless on the Reliant Stadium field for several minutes.  Green was put on a stretcher and was moving his fingers and hands as he was taken from the field.  Green was released from the hospital and all signs are that he will be okay.

Bobby Engram is going to be sidelined 6-8 weeks with a crack in his shoulder bone.  He was the leading receiver from a year ago and the one veteran influence amongst a unit with a lot of question marks.  Hasselbeck is going to be playing with a lot of unproven wide receivers.  The Seahawks will need Engram back ASAP.

Madieu Williams suffered a neck injury and is expected to miss 6 weeks.  That is a big injury for a team that was depending on him to sure up a secondary that ranked 32nd in passing yards allowed.

Charlie Batch was a big injury for the Steelers.  He has been with them since 2003 as their backup quarterback.  He broke his collarbone in Friday’s game against the Eagles and is expected to miss 10-weeks with that injury.  That left Dennis Dixon as the backup, which prompted the signing of Byron Leftwich.  If Big Ben were to go down for a couple weeks the Steelers could be in a big bind.  Batch has filled in for Big Ben in the past and done very well for the Steelers.

Finally, Shawn Andrews just reported to camp this week, citing depression for the first 17 days he missed.  Quoting the AP, "I'm willing to admit that I've been going through a very bad time with depression," Andrews told the Daily News in his first public comments about his training camp absence. "I've finally decided to get professional help. It's not something that blossomed up overnight. I'm on medication, trying to get better."

First of all, you have to hope that he is getting treatment and can recover from this.  Situations like this remind you that there are bigger things going on in these guys life other than football.  From a football standpoint, having your 2-time Pro Bowl guard out of camp for this reason is never a good thing.  They need him to anchor that offensive line.  He is a fantastic guard and is a big part of that football team. 

Overall Impressions of the Week that Was:

1) Brett Favre – I am ready to be done talking about him from a non-football standpoint.  It is good to see him in a camp and start being talked about as a football player and not as a distraction.  When he starts making plays good or bad I would love to talk about those. 

I think all NFL fans are glad that the soap opera part of the story is over.  Now it would be nice if the announcers would move past it.  The ESPN crew beat that horse to death on Thursday night with the Cardinals and the Saints.  They picked right up where they left off on Monday Night.

When it comes to the NFL I like hearing about Favre more than just about anything, but enough is enough.  He isn’t with the Cardinals, Saints, or Packers and to mention his name on every play is a bit silly.  While some people will want to evaluate the trade on a play-by-play basis, it is going to take a year or two to ultimately find out if the Packers made the right call.   A play-by-play analysis of Rodger’s development is as absurd as mentioning Favre’s name on every play.

2) Aaron Rodgers played solid, but… – I got the feeling that many people in the national media were looking for validation of the trade in that game.  It’s a preseason game.  Most teams play vanilla defenses.  Cincinnati was a terrible defense in 2007. 

Even if it meant everything in the world you can’t evaluate trades on a game-by-game basis.  Here are two random game lines from two quarterbacks careers:

September 17, 2006: 20 completions, 27 attempts, 289 yards, 4 TD passes, 0 picks, 148.0 QB rating.             

December 17, 2006: 20 completions, 37 attempts, 174 yards, 0 TD passes, 3 picks, 32.9 QB rating                       

Both games were played in 2006.  Both games were against Detroit where Detroit was the road team.  The September game is Rex Grossman in a 34-7 victory over the Lions.  The December game is Brett Favre in a 17-9 victory over Detroit.  That doesn’t make Rex Grossman a better quarterback than Favre.  He just played better against Detroit at home that year.  Yet this is how many in the media is choosing to evaluate Rodgers vs. Favre.

Aaron Rodgers is probably under more pressure for a first year starter than any player in the history of the NFL.  He is going to be inconsistent this year just like most first year starters are inconsistent.  The important part of Monday’s game was to see how he responded to that pressure, something he did not handle well in the Family Night Scrimmage.  Other than that you weren’t going to find much out. 

Here was my impression of Rodgers.  He impressed me in the sense that there wasn’t a throw he couldn’t make, something people have been talking about since he took over for Favre.  He had good velocity on the ball.  He had command of the offense.  He didn’t stray from the pocket like many young quarterbacks do.  Fleeing the pocket doesn’t give the play a chance to develop.  He needs to feel the pressure a little better.  He missed a safety blitz and was hit a number of times.  If he does not improve in that area he will not play the full schedule.  He also needs to work on his touch and accuracy. 

He played a good game against a defense that was not very solid last year.  He also did that without Grant or Jennings, two of the Packer’s biggest offensive weapons.  My doubts haven’t been so much about his abilities as they have been about his ability to stay healthy.

Regardless of where you are at with this guy it is going to take a lot more games for anyone to make a determination about where he is at as a professional player.  Put a check mark on the good column Monday Night.  He played a solid game and will need to build off that game and keep getting better.  Based on his attitude since March I would expect him to do just that.

3) Larry Johnson looked healthy – This is a guy that gained 1,750 yards on 5.2 yards per carry scoring 20 touchdowns in 2005.  He set a NFL record with 416 carries for 1,789 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2006.  He never looked right last season gaining 559 yards on 3.5 yards per carry and scoring only 3 touchdowns.  He was hurt midseason against the Packers and missed the rest of the season.  

Johnson ran for a touchdown on the Chiefs first drive as the Chiefs beat the Bears 24-20.  He only had 8 carries for 18 yards, but had a nice run up the middle past Brian Urlacher for 7 yards and scored on a 5-yard touchdown.

People are very concerned about him for a couple reasons.  The Chiefs quarterback situation dictates that defenses will concentrate on him.  How he responds from a broken foot is going to be key if he is going to get the carries he needs for the Chiefs to be successful.

18 yards on eight carries is nothing to jump up and down about.  But he had a couple nice runs and looked to have some of his explosiveness back.  The Chiefs aren’t going to work him to hard in the preseason.  This was an encouraging sign and is hopefully a sign of things to come. 

4) Seattle impressive in opening win – It’s hard to tell what is what in the preseason.  However, Seattle had a very nice opening game.  They traveled to Minnesota and won 34-17.   What was encouraging was 35 carries for 162 yards, which is an average of 4.6 yards per carry.

Again, it’s preseason.  The Williams Brothers didn’t play 4 quarters.  Allen wasn’t chasing the quarterback the whole time. The scored was tied 17-17 at the half, so the blowout happened with a lot of backups that won’t be on the field come Week 1.

This team is set at quarterback. Brees, Hasselbeck, and Romo are probably the three best quarterbacks in the NFC.  Having a good quarterback will keep you in a lot of games.  If Seattle can run the ball like they did against the Vikings that will be a big plus.  Mare was also 2-2 on field goals and 4-4 on extra points, which is much better than his horrendous 2007 season.  How he replaces Brown this year is critical for them winning close games in 2008.

I have questioned how this offense is going to do in 2008.  Scoring 34 points on the road with an offense that has some questions is never a bad thing.  However, Bobby Engram injuring his shoulder is a very bad thing.  That leaves them even weaker at a position that has a lot of question marks.  Regardless, Seattle impressed against a good team and deserves credit for that.

5) 49er’s quarterback situation – It was interesting to see JT O’Sullivan starting for the 49ers in their first preseason game.  Nolan’s reason for that was that he knows what he has in Smith and Hill and wanted to see O’Sullivan work with the first team.  If that doesn’t tell that Smith has hit rock bottom, I don’t know what will.  Smith played in only 7 games and threw only 193 passes and you don’t want to see what your $49.5 million dollar investment looks like so that you can see what a 6th round pick from the 2002 draft looks like?

I’ve argued with quite a few 49ers that have argued that it is too early to label Smith a bust.  If labeling Bust were the equivalent of a football game it would be 35-14 with about 4:00 minutes left in the game with Team Bust comfortably in the lead.  If the coach is worried about what he has in JT O’Sullivan that is an obvious indicator that he isn’t too high on Alex Smith.

The reason O’Sullivan is getting a look is because he played in Detroit last year, which is where Martz coached.  O’Sullivan has the best knowledge of the offense.  I would not be shocked if he ends up starting the season as the number one quarterback for the 49ers.   

A Look Ahead:  It’s pretty hard to get hyped for the 2nd preseason game.  Once the regular season starts I’m going to pick the best 5 games on the schedule.  I’m not doing that with preseason games.  There is going to be a lot of attention paid to the Jets and Redskins as this will be Favre’s first action with a team other than the Packers since 1991.  People will be curious to see how he looks in this new offense.  New England and Tampa Bay features two playoff teams.  The Giants and Browns could be an entertaining matchup. 

I’m not going to waste too much time previewing preseason games.  As teams take the field for the second time we should start to see some trends and can start looking at possible concerns or possible things to be optimistic about.  The key is that teams build some momentum and keep their players healthy.  All in all it was a good week of preseason action and it is nice to have football back.  Let me know what you thought about this week's developments in the NFL and your favorite team's performance in the preseason.

NFL Playoff Predictions

I have already released my eight NFL Division Previews. If you missed any of them the links are as follows:

a) AFC East

b) NFC East

c) AFC South

d) NFC South

e) AFC North

f) NFC North

g) AFC West

h) NFC West

These are the teams I had making the 2008 NFL Playoffs:

AFC Playoff Teams

1) Jacksonville Jaguars 13-3

2) New England Patriots 13-3

3) San Diego Chargers 12-4

4) Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5

5) Indianapolis Colts 12-4

6) Cleveland Browns 10-6

NFC Playoff Teams

1) Dallas Cowboys 12-4

2) Minnesota Vikings 11-5

3) New Orleans Saints 10-6

4) Arizona Cardinals 9-7

5) Philadelphia Eagles 10-6

6) New York Giants 9-7

Since I have done those predictions there have been a few major transactions. First, the Saints acquired Jeremy Shockey, which helps bolster my confidence in the New Orleans pick. Second, Jason Taylor became a Redskin. While he does make the defense better, I don’t expect a big improvement from my 7-9 prediction, due to the questions I have on offense. The final move is Brett Favre being reinstated by the Packers.

The bottom line is that I can’t deal in hypotheticals. Favre is with the Packers right now and indications are that the Packers will not hold an “open competition.” It is clear that the Packers don’t want him there and that Favre wants to leave. I can’t see Favre opening the season there. The question is how long does it take to make the move? There could be a trade today to the Bucs or Jets or the Packers could allow this mess to spill into the season. It is anyone’s guess where this goes at this point. Thompson and Farve’s egos could allow this to drag out for a long time.

Either way it is going to set the Packers back in terms of their locker room, unless Rodgers plays at a MVP level from day one. That is an incredibly tough task for a player who has thrown 59 career passes. My opinion is that Favre could make a new team a Super Bowl contender, but until we see where he lands and how he gels with that new team it would be crazy to predict that when there are a lot of contending teams that have a lot more certainty.

Here is how I see the playoffs going based on where the 32 teams in the NFL stand at this moment.

AFC Wildcard Round

 

Cleveland Browns (10-6) at San Diego Chargers (12-4) – This one I would expect to be a lopsided. The Browns have a great offense, but Anderson didn’t always take care of the ball in 2007. While the Browns will be improved at stopping the run with Williams and Rodgers on the defensive line they won’t be good enough to stop LT. I think the big play defense of the Chargers and a healthy LT put up a bunch of points on the Browns who will be making their first playoff appearance since 1994.

Score: San Diego Chargers 35 – Cleveland Browns 17

Indianapolis Colts (12-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) – This would be a very interesting matchups. It was a classic back in the 2005 playoffs. Both quarterbacks have won Super Bowls. The Steelers were the champions in 2005. The Colts brought home the trophy in 2006. My concern about picking the Colts is that they usually stop playing their best football once the calendar turns to January. The Steelers having this game at home will be a huge advantage, although they lost at home playoff game last year to the Jags. The Colts actually seem to do worse in the playoff at home in recent years having lost there in the divisional round in both 2005 and 2007. The key is going to be which team can establish the running game and which quarterback will make the fewest mistakes. I would expect a very tough game going down to the wire with the Colts winning it at the end.

Score: Indianapolis Colts 28 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

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NFC Wildcard Round

New York Giants (9-7) at New Orleans Saints (10-6) – The NY Giants will begin their title defense in the Big Easy. The Saints will look to win their first playoff game since they made the run to the NFC Championship Game in 2006. I think the NY Giants will try to do the same things they did last postseason. They will try to run the ball, put pressure on the quarterback, and avoid the big turnover. I think the difference will be that the Saints have just enough firepower on offense to make up for the deficiencies they have on defense. The Giants lost a lot of defenders this offseason, most notably future Hall of Famer Michael Strahan. Shockey gets his revenge against the Giants as the Saints win a close one.

Score: New Orleans Saints 27 – New York Giants 21

 

Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) at Arizona Cardinals (9-7) – I would also expect this to be a lopsided game. The Cardinals will be making their first playoff appearance since Jake Plummer led the Cardinals to the Divisional Round back in 1998. While they are able to pass the ball the Eagles set up well to stop the pass with Samuel, Brown, and Shepherd. The Cardinals have no answer for Westbrook and McNabb will play a good game as well. Eagles win big.

Score: Philadelphia Eagles 38 – Arizona Cardinals 20

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AFC Divisional Round

Indianapolis Colts (12-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (13-3) – If this matchup came to life what a treat this would be. The physical smash mouth style of the Jaguars collides with the high scoring air attack of the Colts. Divisional matchups in the playoffs are always intriguing. The Jaguars usually play the Colts tough and I would expect that the Jaguars could run the ball effectively against the smaller front of the Colts. The difference for the Jags is that with the addition of Harvey and Graves they will be able to put enough extra pressure on Manning to win a close game in Jacksonville.

Score: Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Indianapolis Colts 21

San Diego Chargers (12-4) at New England Patriots (13-3) – We’ve seen this matchup each of the last two years. Is this the year the Chargers can finally beat New England in the playoffs? I think the Chargers would have had a great chance to beat the Patriots last year had LT, Gates, and Rivers all been healthy. They put enough pressure on Brady to disrupt the passing game, but just weren’t able to convert in the redzone on offense. Settling for four field goals in a playoff game is a recipe for disaster. The Patriots are rebuilding their defense this season. Patriot fans will say that Brady never loses home playoff games, but then again he never lost Super Bowls until last season. Still, I think the Patriots will find a way to do what they do best, win a close playoff game in the 4th quarter.

Score: New England Patriots 28 – San Diego Chargers 21

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NFC Divisional Round

New Orleans Saints (10-6) at Dallas Cowboys (12-4) – The Dallas Cowboys will have waited a year to atone for their home playoff loss to the New York Giants in 2007. This will be a good opponent for the Cowboys. A defense that Romo can look to put up some numbers against and build some confidence. Both offenses will be able to move the ball. The Cowboys don’t have a perfect defense, but they will be able to make enough plays with their solid pass rush to stop Brees and the Saints. I look for the Cowboys to win a high scoring game.

Score: Dallas Cowboys 42 – New Orleans Saints 28

 

Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) at Minnesota Vikings (11-5) – This is where Minnesota will regret having Jackson. While he is still developing he just doesn’t make enough plays to win playoff games when the defenses get better and the yards get tougher to come by. The Eagles have more than enough secondary help to put eight in the box and concentrate against Peterson and Taylor. While Westbrook will find rushing yards hard to come by, he still could score a couple big plays in the passing games. Eagles in a low scoring affair.

 

Score: Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Minnesota Vikings 10

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AFC Championship

New England Patriots (13-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (13-3) – Jacksonville is the team I am picking to come out of the AFC. People still think of Jacksonville as this low scoring team that can’t put up enough points against the big offenses in the AFC. Jacksonville scored 411 points which ranked 6th in the NFL. That was despite Garrard missing 4 games with an injury. They finished the season winning 6 of their last 8 games and scored 32 points per game. Jones-Drew and Taylor are arguably the best running duo in the NFL not in Minnesota and Garrard really came on in the second half of the season.

The Patriots averaged 32.3 in their last 8 games, which compares favorably to the Jaguars. While people remember the 2007 Patriots as this 40.0-point per game juggernaut, the Patriots offense did not play at that level on a consistent basis after the first 8 games. The Jaguars had enough offensive talent to compete with the Patriots in the playoffs last year. The biggest difference was that the Jaguars didn’t have enough receiver speed to exploit the Patriot secondary and they didn’t have enough pass rushers to get to Brady. They tried to address that by adding Porter and Williamson. Porter is expected to miss training camp, but should be ready for the opener. Harvey and Groves will give the Jaguars players that can get to the quarterback.

The Jaguars have been knocking at the door the last few seasons. Last season was big in that they won a playoff game and should be more comfortable and experienced come playoff time. Outside the Patriots the Jaguars played as well as anyone the second half of the season last year. I believe that carries over to this season. This is the year the Jags represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

Score: Jacksonville Jaguars 34 – New England Patriots 27

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NFC Championship

Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) at Dallas Cowboys (12-4) – I really didn’t know what direction to go in the NFC. It seems like the NFC is up for grabs every year. No one would have predicted the NY Giants to win the Super Bowl in preseason and the ones that did should have abandoned the bandwagon after Week 2. Yet they not only made the playoffs, but also won 3 road playoff games and a neutral Super Bowl to capture the Lombardi Trophy.

There are a number of ways you could go with this. You could pick the Vikings to win it behind a 2,000-yard season by Peterson. You could pick the Saints to rebound with a more consistent offensive approach and a better defense that features Vilma, Ellis, ####, and McCray. You could go with the NY Giants to defend their crown. Some expect Seattle to make a final push with Holmgren, although I didn’t have them even making the playoffs.

Here is why I went with these two teams. Brian Westbrook is 29 years old. Running backs tend to go downhill at 30 years old. This is getting to be his final run as a featured offensive weapon. McNabb is 31 going on 32 and given his health issues he probably won’t be a 38-year old superstar. His last years are approaching. Jackson may have been the pick that gives them a breakthrough special teams player. The defense was very solid in 2007 and Samuel will make them that much tougher. Reid has a lot to prove after the drama he went through in 2007. The Eagles should be a hungry team in 2008.

 

This team has a wealth of playoff experience. When that many quality people have something at stake and not many more years to get over the hump they usually come through. I thought the Eagles would miss the playoffs with McNabb needing a year to recover from ACL surgery. I expect them to make another run through the NFC in 2008.

On to the Cowboys. People will say that Romo is Mr. September. That TO and Jones are an explosion waiting to happen in the locker room. That Phillips has a 0-4-playoff record. That the Cowboys last won a playoff game back in 1996.

While criticism is warranted, I think some of that criticism is excessive. Prior to Dallas Phillips had last been a head coach for a full season in 2000. He had lost all 3 playoff games on the road. One of those was the Music City Miracle. Romo has a 0-2-playoff record. Bradshaw was 1-2 to start the playoffs with his sole win being the Immaculate Reception. Peyton Manning went 0-3 before winning his first playoff game, including a 41-0 spanking by the Jets. Eli Manning was 0-2 in the playoffs before his Super Bowl run. Two playoff games are not enough to earn a title of Mr. September.

 

The Cowboys had a disappointing end to the season and I’m not sure what to think of them. I do think that Romo and Phillips handled the bye week poorly prior to the NY Giants game. That said I think that failure could make them stronger. Still when you hear stories about Jessica send Romo “pictures” of her that are just waiting to get leaked to the paparazzi, you have to wonder what circus awaits Dallas in 2008.

The Cowboys have the most individual talent in the NFC in 2008. If they can find a way to gel that they should be playing in February. If they can’t they are very beatable and could make for another interesting January in the NFC.

This game has all the storylines. NFC East rivalry. TO vs McNabb. Romo and Jessica. I wasn’t sure who to pick to represent the NFC and I’ve always believed that when in doubt go with the most talented team. That is clearly the Cowboys. I loo