As I promised here is the first in 8 installments of division previews. While there are still a couple months until training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be a few minor changes after some June 1st cuts. You could have a Ricky Williams style retirement on the eve of camp. Brett Favre could decide to un-retire. However, with what we have in place as of today here is what I see taking place in 2008.
Some people will say it is way to early to start making predictions. My response to that would be that it is always too early to make predictions. How many people are going to hop off the Patriots bandwagon if they go 0-4 in preseason, barring a Tom Brady season ending injury? How many people are going to jump on the Dolphins bandwagon if they go 4-0?
Unless there is a major injury it is fairly safe to say this is how I am going to feel about the divisions. If you think I am starting these too early leave a comment about what you think is going to change for your team between now and the start of the season that I am not taking into account.
In my first installment I am starting with the AFC East. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.
The AFC East was by far the most lopsided division in 2007. The Patriots won the division by 9 games. While 16-0 helped create that lofty margin, the Bills didn’t do much to keep the division competitive going 7-9 in second place. The Jets and Dolphins finished 4-12 and 1-15 respectively.
Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC East.
1)New England Patriots
07 Record: 16-0
Points Scored: 589 (1st)
Points Allowed: 274 (4th)
Playoff Result: Lost Super Bowl
2008 Strength of Schedule:99-157 (.387) (32nd in NFL)
Strengths: When a team completes the first 16-0 season in NFL history, there isn’t going to be a lot of weaknesses to look at. Bill Belichick has done a great job keeping the Patriots the most dominant team in the NFL since 2001. The strength of the team is their offense and that offense broke NFL records that many thought were untouchable. Their 589 points scored in a single season demonstrates the ease with which this offense moved the ball. Patriots starts with Tom Brady and Randy Moss. Tom Brady completed a historic NFL season, in which he won his first MVP award. The future Hall of Famer passed for 4,806 yards, 50 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and had a QB rating of 117.2. The major benefactors of those big numbers were Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Moss had a record setting 23 touchdown receptions to go along with 98 catches and 1,493 yards. Wes Welker had 112 catches for 1175 yards and 8 touchdowns.
The Patriots also had a very good running game. While injuries prevented one back from accumulating all the numbers, the Patriots as a team ranked a respectable 13th in rushing yards. Laurence Maroney is their most promising runner and if he can stay healthy he should be able to eclipse 1,000 yards.
The Patriots didn’t punt the ball a lot and scoring touchdowns were so frequent that we didn’t get to see much in the way of their special teams. All in all their return units and kicking game was fairly strong and should continue to be that way in 2008.
Weaknesses: It’s hard to call a defense that ranked 4th in the NFL a weakness. The Patriots defense would be the strength of most teams. But considering how good the offense was in 2007; that is what the defense is for the Patriots. The Patriots D did a lot of good things in 2007. They were very good at pressuring the quarterback. The Patriots ranked 2nd in the NFL at sacking the quarterback. They also ranked 6th in passing yards allowed, which is amazing considering how far behind teams were the majority of the game. The Patriots were however very average at stopping the run. While they ranked tenth in yards allowed, they ranked 26th in yards per carry at 4.4.
The defensive line is still in great shape. Wilfork is a beast and still in his 20s. Seymour and Warren are excellent on the ends. They also have good depth behind them. The biggest challenge for the Patriots on defense is overcoming age issues in the linebacker core and replacing heavy losses in the secondary. All of their starting linebackers are 30 years old or older. Thomas is still an excellent player with a few prime years left. Seau is 39 years old and Bruschi will be 35 years old in a month. That was the big motivation for drafting Mayo with the 10th pick and Crable in the 3rd round. Both will need to contribute immediately.
Samuel was a huge free agent loss in the secondary. They also lost #### and Wilson. Harrison returns, but is 36 years old and was susceptible to the pass last season. The Patriots signed CBs Fernando Bryant and Lewis Sanders to go along with S Tank Williams. While those should be good players, it is hard to believe they will be better than what the Patriots lost. They also drafted Wheatley in the 2nd round to provide depth.
Prediction: It will be interesting to see if the rest of the NFL has caught up to the Patriots in 2008. The Patriots were light years ahead of the rest of the league during the first 10 games of the season. As the season progressed, teams started to close the gap. Still the Patriots went 18-0, before losing by a field goal in the Super Bowl. Losing by a field goal isn’t exactly being figured out.
The schedule doesn’t look very challenging. The Patriots have the easiest schedule in terms of last year’s winning percentage with a .387 winning percentage. They only play 4 playoff teams from 2007. That is the minimum for a first place team. That doesn’t necessarily mean it will pan out as the easiest schedule, but based on last season it doesn’t look very challenging.
I think the Patriots will still have one of the top 5 scoring offenses in the NFL. I think they will still have a respectable defense, but one that either barely makes the top 10 or is on the cusp. Even though as a whole they won’t be as good as 2007, they should still have more than enough weapons to run away with the division and earn a first round bye in the playoffs.
New England Patriot's Record: 13-3 – AFC East Divisional Champion; AFC #2 Seed
2) New York Jets
07 Record: 4-12
Points Scored: 268 (25th)
Points Allowed: 355 (19th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule:117-139 (.457) (25th in NFL)
Strengths: Eric Mangini had a hard fall from grace in 2007. After being considered one of the hottest coaching prospects entering 2007, it is back to the drawing board in 2008. It is hard to look back to 2007, because the NY Jets have been so active in free agency. The NY Jets were not awful on defense, especially when it comes to stopping the pass. The Jets ranked 9th in pass yards allowed and 6th in pass touchdowns allowed. Keep in mind that part of that was due to the bad job they did stopping the run.
On offense, Thomas Jones did have the 1,000 yard season the Jets hoped he would have. The bad news was that he did it on 3.6 yards per carry and had only one rushing touchdown the whole season. Cotchery had 82 receptions for 1,130 yards and 2 touchdowns. Coles had 55 catches for 646 yards and 6 touchdowns while being limited by injuries for a good part of the season. Both were impressive given their starting quarterback situation.
The Jets have some issues going in at quarterback this season. Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens will be the main signal callers for the Jets in 2008. When Pennington is healthy he can be one of the better quarterbacks in the league. He is extremely accurate and makes good decisions. Injuries have robbed him of a lot of games. Clemens is the probable starter heading into camp, but by no means did he do so well in 2008 that the Jets wouldn’t contemplate going back to Pennington should Clemens prove ineffective.
The kicking game looks to be in good shape. Nugent and Graham both had solid seasons. Neither is a major concern heading into this season.
Weaknesses: The NY Jets had weaknesses all over the board. They only won 4 games, and 2 of those were against the 1-15 Dolphins. They were run over by opposing running backs the whole season, giving up the 29th most rushing yards in the NFL. They struggled to control the line of scrimmage on either side of the ball. They finished 19th in rushing yards gained and 30th in rushing touchdowns scored. It was a year to forget for a team coming off a wildcard birth and 10 wins in 2006.
The Jets decided to fix this mess by hitting free agency as if there was no tomorrow. They signed Alan Faneca and Damien Woody to upgrade the offensive line. They signed TE Bubba Franks and FB Tony Richardson to improve their blocking at those positions. When those guys can stay healthy they are very effective in that regard. They also drafted Dustin Keller to give them a receiving threat at tight end. Finally, the Jets guaranteed the final $11 million of Cole’s contract to keep him happy.
On defense they traded a third and fifth round pick for DT Kris Jenkins and signed OLB Kelvin Pace away from the Arizona Cardinals. They drafted Vernon Gholston with the 6th pick. He was one of the premier pass rushers in the entire draft. They also drafted Dwight Lowery to add depth in the secondary. Finally, they signed S Kerry Rhodes to five year, $33.5 million extension ($20 million guaranteed) extension to keep him in the secondary.
What all this means is that the Jets were one of the busiest players in free agency and the first round of the draft. They could have as many as 7 new starters or one third of the starting positions. That means that you really can’t look at last year’s results as many key contributors on this team are players that were not on the Jet’s roster in 2007.
Prediction: It’s hard for me to believe that the Jets aren’t going to improve on their record from 2007 given their strength of schedule and all the free agents they signed and high draft picks they made. The question is whether that is going to be enough for them to get into the playoffs.
Playing the Dolphins and Bills twice can always help. They get the NFC West and AFC West meaning San Fran, St Louis, Oakland, and Kansas City. They will win more than 4 games in 2008. That said, I still am not in love with adding a bunch of high priced veteran free agents and throwing it together and hoping for greatness the following season. History is full of teams that crashed and burned using that approach.
I think it is going to take this team some time to gel. I also am not in love with their quarterback situation. Pennington’s best days are behind him and Clemens didn’t show me anything to get very excited about. Given their schedule and improvement in talent, I am looking for them to get to 7-9 or possibly 8-8 this season. Anything more than 8 wins would be a major surprise to me.
NY Jet's Record: 7-9 – AFC East 2nd place; No Playoffs
3)Buffalo Bills
07 Record: 7-9
Points Scored: 252 (30th)
Points Allowed: 354 (18th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule:115-141 (.449) (27th in NFL)
Strengths:#### Jauron has done a very good job with this squad since being hired by the Buffalo Bills. The Buffalo Bills were your classic effort team in 2008. Despite ranking 30th in yards gained and 31st in yards allowed they were able to make enough plays to win games. Critics will point to their 7-9 record as being the result of 4 wins over the Dolphins and Jets. Still, other than the Patriots games, Jaguars, and Steelers the Bills played most of their schedule fairly competitively. They were beaten by the Dallas Cowboys in the games closing seconds. They beat a playoff team in Washington. This is a team that was able to give teams fits with their hustle and effort.
The Bills have some quality pieces as well. Lee Evans could be a great receiver if he could get the right quarterback situation. #### had a very good rookie campaign and is expected to do big things in Year 2. Fred Jackson was a quality back up. Edwards played some good minutes and will be competing with Losman for the starting job. Edwards should be the favorite to earn the starting nod. On defense Aaron Schobel is always considered one of the leagues better defensive ends.
The kicking game is pretty solid. Rian Lindell was 24 for 27 in 2007. Brian Moorman had grossed as high as 45.7 in 2005 was down to 40.8 in 2007. Roscoe Parish is a promising return man.
Weaknesses: While the Bills had a nice season, they need to get more good players if they want to take the next jump. They were anemic on offense and the defense was not good enough to carry the team. The Bills did a nice job of upgrading their defense. Marcus Stroud is a nice addition to the defensive line. They also added Spencer Johnson to sure up the DT position. The Bills drafted DE Chris Ellis to improve the defensive line. They signed Kawika Mitchell away from the World Champion NY Giants. He should help the linebacker spot. Finally, the Bills singed William James and drafted Leodis McKelvin and Reggie Corner to improve the secondary. If these moves pan out, the Bills defense will be a much better unit in 2008.
The Bills didn’t completely ignore the offense. They drafted James Hardy out of Indiana in the second round. He should make a nice compliment to established starter Lee Evans. The Bills are gambling that their young offensive starters will continue to progress and will be aided by a much stronger defense that will keep them in most games.
Prediction: The Bills did make several additions that should improve this team. However, I do not believe they have caught up to the Patriots yet and the NY Jets were as active as any team in the league in free agency. The Dolphins have also been busy. I don’t expect the Bills to go 4-2 in their division in 2008.
That said, the Bills do have some winnable out of division games if the Raiders, Chiefs, 49ers, and Rams. I expect the Bills to be right around 7-9 or 8-8 in 2008. If the Bills finished slightly ahead of the NY Jets that would not surprise me. If the Bills ended up tied or slightly behind the Jets, that too would not surprise me. The bottom line is that I think both the Bills and the Jets are both teams hovering around .500 and both have a ways to go before entering the playoff discussion in the very deep and talented AFC.
Buffalo Bill's Record: 7-9 – AFC 3rd Place; No Playoffs
4) Miami Dolphins
07 Record: 1-15
Points Scored: 267 (26th)
Points Allowed: 437 (30th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule:119-137 (.465) (22nd in NFL)
Strengths: The Dolphins had been flirting with contention in 2005 and were a trendy playoff pick in 2006. They finished that season 6-10 and by 2007 the bottom fell out and they went 1-15, with their sole win coming over the 5-11 Baltimore Ravens in OT.
The Dolphins basically played 2 seasons in 2007. In their first 8 games they put up points with Ronnie Brown and Chris Chambers, but their defense was no where to be found. The Patriots, Cowboys, Browns, and other high powered offenses torched them on a week to week basis. They gave up 244 points in their first 8 games, but scored a respectable 166 points.
The defense made good strides in the second half. They gave up only 193 points in the second half. By that time Ronnie Brown was gone for the year, Trent Green was on IR, and Chambers was in San Diego. The offense only scored 101 points in their last 8 games and the Dolphins were officially in disaster. They lost their first 13 games, before beating the Ravens in their 14th game. It would be their only victory of the season.
There are no easy answers in Miami. First year Head Coach Tony Sparano is inheriting one gigantic mess. They have a blossoming star running back coming back from knee surgery. They do not have a quality starting quarterback in place. They are young and unproven at wide receiver. The offensive line is a mess. On defense, they are an older team. Joey Porter and Jason Taylor are proven commodities in the league, but nearing the end of their great careers. Zack Thomas is no longer with the team. They need to start rebuilding the defensive line and secondary. The special teams could use improvement in all areas.
That is why the Dolphins hired The Tuna. Bill Parcells has been entrusted with the difficult task of putting the Dolphins back together again. He is starting at the bottom and working his way up.
Weaknesses: Here is what the Dolphins did this offseason to start improving the team. Parcells started getting rid of older players and non productive players and made wholesale changes to the roster. He brought in Josh McCown and drafted Chad Henne to go along with Beck to give them a better QB situation. He decided instead of drafting McFadden to keep Brown and improve the offensive line. The Dolphins singed Justin Smiley to a nice contract and drafted Jake Long with the first pick to play tackle. He is already signed. They also drafted Shawn Murphy to play guard. They then acquired tight end Anthony Fasano in a trade from the Cowboys and signed Earnest Wilford and Tab Perry to improve the receiving core. There are going to be a lot of knew faces for the Dolphins on offense.
The same is going to be true on defense. The Dolphins may not win a lot of gamed, but they aren’t going to lose with the same cast of characters. They signed safeties Chris Crocker and Keith Davis. They aren’t big names, but should improve that position. They added Akin Ayodele and Reggie Torbor to the linebacker core. They traded for Jason Ferguson and signed Randy Starks to improve the defensive tackle spot. They also drafted Phillip Merling and Kendall Langford to add to the defensive end position. Those new faces should go well with Jason Taylor and Joey Porter.
The Dolphins are in the midst of a full rebuilding effort. There will be many new and unfamiliar faces in the lineup in 2008 as the Dolphins try to put the embarrassment of a 1-15 campaign behind them.
Prediction: The Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots were not built in a day. It took years of good drafts, solid free agency, and developing young players to turn those franchises into the powerhouses they are today. The Dolphins aren’t going to fix this problem overnight. Bill Parcells is well aware of that. He did an excellent job of bringing in players and trying to change the culture of this team. It will be interesting to see if the riff between Jason Taylor and he is reparable once this team gets to playing football. Evidently, Bill Parcells is not a fan of Dancing with the Stars.
The Dolphins are still looking at being the 4th best team in this division. They may be able to steal a game or two against either the Jets or Bills. The Chiefs, Raiders, 49ers, and Rams offer chances for victory. They play the Ravens and Texans, which will also give them a chance to compete. It isn’t going to be the frustration of 2007, but it isn’t going to be very pretty either. I look for the Dolphins to win 4 more games, but still sure up the bottom of the AFC East.
Miami Dolphin's Record: 5-11 – AFC 4th Place; No Playoffs
That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008. I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July. I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008. Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews. You have made writing these a lot of fun.
As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.
Yo StreetCred.
I want to say a few things. As you know I won't say the teams' records but just other details:
NE: Thank you for seeing the Pats running game as good. It was underrated last year. It was really effective last year. People just saw them passing alot and assumed the running game was bad. While true the "weakness" (since like you said it's hard to find a true one) was with LBs stopping the run wasn't the weakness. It was the LBs and DBs stopping the pass. Remember that is what killed them in the Super Bowl.
Jets: Clemens was worse than Pennington last year actually. While it was a good idea for Mangini to play him at that time, Pennington should start this year because of Clemens' performance. The ONLY way Clemens starts is that the Jets orginization listens to the hatred toward Pennington from the media and public. That's it.
Buf: Man. Except for #### the offense was mostly weak last year. Offensively, I think Losman is better at moving the ball but Edwards was a rookie last year. The reason I'm not sold on Edwards is because of the Dallas game. Tony Romo throws five INTs and they still win because the offense did nothing. I believe Losman should be the favorite but you are right that Edwards is. The Bills organization is more leaning his way.
MIA: I don't know how this team will be this season. But you are right it was basically went opposite in the second half. They were smart, unlike the Raiders, with their first round pick. Signed Long before draft so no holdout happens. It's good that Parcells is picking players instead of coaching. He hasn't lost his ability to know who good players are but lost his coaching a while back. Nice write up. I'll talk more about this in detail later
Dehbashi - Thanks for the comments. I think whatever team (Bills or Jets) gets their QB situation sorted out is the one that will be in the best position to challenge for 2nd place in the AFC East.
Edwards and Clemens both looked good at times and shaky at times with Edwards getting the nod. It will be interesting to see if these teams go with the young guys or try to go with the veterans who you know what you are getting, which is average play, but nothing great.
That's why I like the Jets a little bit better than the Bills, because I think Pennington is the QB we are pretty sure can suceed if he is healthy. Still it is pretty much a toss up and anyone's guess.
Interesting - you have the Pats as the #2 AFC seed? You must be predicting the Chargers to have the #1. Don't reveal it, we will wait for your reports. I think 3 losses is just about right for them in 2008. As dominant as they were, it will be hard to repeat all of the success and breaks (re: Ravens and Eagles games). Plus, I think they realize that even though 16-0 is an incredible achievement and probably won't be duplicated anytime soon, it meant nothing since they didn't finish the deal.
The Bills are one of those scrappy overachieving type clubs. If they were in the NFC, they are a team that could have gotten a wild card spot. They will be much healthier this year. Have a shot at 9-7.
Yeah that's true about the getting 2nd place depends on QB situation. Edwards did look better because at least a few games that were possible. They won 5 games with him as the QB that were possible and not due some luck. Clemens won only three. Those were against Herm Edwards's Chiefs, the Dolphins, and the Steelers. Jet fans may brag about that but look at a few teams the Steelers lost to: Denver, Arizona, Ravens. Mediocre to #### teams. Last year, the Steelers had problems of playing down to their opponents. Heck they almost lost to Miami. I know the field was bad due to rain but it doesn't take a field goal at the end of the game to win against the worst team in the league. I would trust Edwards a whole lot more then Clemens. Yeah I like Pennington. Except for Brady, I'm enjoy him the most playing since I trust he can put the ball where it needs to be. I don't care if he doesn't have a "cannon" arm. I believe though that with Pennington they could make the playoffs again. Last year bad luck for him.
Street Cred
It'll be fun to see how the Pats'll rebound from last season's Superbowl loss. As a Pats' fan I'll be watching avidly as to what'll manifest itself from the ashes .
Brady and Moss ought to be rocking. The loss of Samuel and Stallworth shouldn't prove to be painful. So I expect 'em to acuit themselves well.
The Jets'll be the Jets. They'll either blow hot ot cold. I'm liable to think that it'll be the latter.
The Bills might just be the surprise team in the division if they can get things right from the start.
And when it comes to the Dolphins for them I see this as their season of transition. Parcells and his underlings will be able to assess the strengths and weakness that there'll no doubt be still on this team. He'll definitely work his way on improving those deficiencies one way or another.
I've a new post up written under this guise titled Under The Radar No More ..... !
Let me know what you think as to the merits of the piece ? I'll look forward to reading your comments.
Moseby - Thanks for the post. If a lot of things went right for the Bills I could see them getting to 9-7. Until that offense can produce more consistently, I just can't see them making the playoffs in the brutal AFC.
I don't know if I agree that the Patriots 16-0 regulars season meant nothing. While expectations were not met by failing to close the deal that was a historic achievment that the Patriots players and organization should be proud of.
Dehbashi - I agree that I would trust Pennington more than Clemens. I think sometimes you need to take a step or 2 back to go forward. With Pennington they will be nothing more than a wildcard. If Clemens develops, he could be something more, but they have to give him a chance to play.
As for the Steelers, I'm not sure what to think. I love their draft and I think those additional weapons will help them. I think they will be more consistant. I just don't know if that will translate into more wins with the schedule they play.
Tophatal - I will try to check out your new article. Thanks for the post. The loss of Stallworth should be minimal, but I think the loss of Samuel will be huge. I just am not convinced their pass defense is stronger that last season and down the stretch it wasn't very good. It will be interesting to see if these rookies and free agents are ready to contribute right away.
Street Cred
One can't bet against Belichek at this juncture. As he's always been able to spot talent in others that other coaches and GM's seem to have overlooked. And that's why I think he's held in such high esteem.
Stallworth's productivity just didn't match the outlay in terms of salary . And Asante Samuel was primarily looking for one huge payday and not much else. I for one don't think that he'll fare that well with the Eagles but it obviously remainst to be seen at this juncture.
rampant aka tophatal.............
Last edited by rampantfanatic on May 9th at 10:23 AM.
It's an overstatement on my part to say 16-0 meant nothing. It was a tremendous achievement. But now that they have done it, I think the Patriots will be less inclined to react to the pressure of an undefeated season and be more likely to keep the big picture in mind when it comes to their regular season record.
My point about the Bills was, I believe, they led the NFL last year in players (especially young ones) on the IR. It will be interesting to see what they can put on the field when/if healthy. I still believe the #6 playoff spot in the AFC is wide open. I'm not convinced we will see the AFC South get both wildcard spots. And the loser of a Piitsburgh/Cleveland AFC North may be on the outside looking in. 9-7 could put the Bills in the playoffs, but not automatically.
Tophatal - I agree that The Hood has been better than most at knowing when it is time to get new players. I just have a hard time believing that Samuel was past his prime. This is a shutdown corner in his 20s that has had 10 interceptions in a season. I think he will be sorely missed.
Moseby - I agree with you that the Bills were very injured last season. With only 6 spots available it is going to be hard for them to beat out Cleveland / Pittsburgh, Denver, Houston, and Tennessee; 5 teams I think are better than the Bills and will all be competing for that 6th spot.
As for the Patriots, I think they will continue to give the standard one week at a time answer and maintain the same philosophy they have had in the past. I think the difference for them in 2008 will be that their defense isn't nearly as strong and has a lot of new parts it will be putting into their complicated scheme.
Street Cred
In no way am I suggesting that Samuels was past his prime. However it's my belief he was after a bigger payday than the Pats were willing to give him. And at the end of the day it proved to be justified. As to how he'll fare in Philadelphia is now open to debate. I personally believe that he's made the wrong choice. !
rampant' aka tophatal ............
Last edited by rampantfanatic on May 9th at 1:04 PM.
I think the with the hiring of Turk Schonert, the Bills offense will be more dynamic, and will place in the top half of the leauge. I say the Bills go 9-7 or 10-6 and make wildcard, but lose ing the first round to the Jaguars.
fderdork - Thanks for the comments. I'm just not seeing that one. I think the Bills had a nice story last season, but they were 30th in yards allowed and 31st in yards gained. I just don't think they have enough to compete with the monster that is the AFC.
Yeah, i kindda just trying to be optimistic lol. They seem to have the right pieces for the puzzle, but i think it will be a WHILE till they finally "click".
I live in Chicago, but am originally from Wisconsin. I am a huge Green Bay Packer fan. My favorite sports are Football, Basketball, and Baseball. Hockey and soccer are at the bottom of my list. I would rather watch the Spelling Bee than either of those sports. My favorite athletes of all time are Brett Favre and Michael Jordan. While I like debating many sports, NFL Football is by far my favorite topic to discuss.
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