This is my sixth of eight NFL division previews. While there is still over a month until
training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be some injuries
prior to the opening of training camp.
However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency
period and the draft. My plan is
to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in
the NFL. Here is my planned schedule. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.
The NFC North is a division that has some of the oldest
rivalries in the NFL. The Bears,
Lions, and Packers are among the original NFL franchises and each have a
storied history. The Minnesota
Vikings did not join the league until the 1960s, but have assimilated well into
the division’s rivalries. This
year marks the first time since 1992 that a certain Hall of Fame QB in Green
Bay will not be taking the field.
The Packers have been the dominant team in the division since Favre
became their quarterback. The
Packers won 7 divisional titles in his tenure with Green Bay and won over 60%
of their divisional games. Which
team seizes control of the division going forward is going to be a very
interesting development.
Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the NFC
North.
1) Minnesota
Vikings
07 Record: 8-8
Points Scored: 365(15th)
Points Allowed: 311 (12th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 141-115 (.551) (4th (t) in
NFL)
Strengths: The Minnesota Vikings were the best in
the league at running the football and they were the best in the league at
stopping the run.
Let’s start with the offense. Adrian Peterson had a tremendous
season. He rushed for 1,341 yards
and 12 touchdowns despite only starting 9 games. He was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Included in that mammoth total was a
296-yard rushing performance against San Diego, which set a NFL record for
rushing yards in a single game. He
also had a 224- yard game against the Chicago Bears. The key for him will be having more consistency and doing
better with 8 men in the box. In
his final 4 games he was held to 54 carries and a 144 yards, which is 2.7 yards
per carry. Part of that was his
coming back from injury, but part of it was defenses concentrating on him more
than they did in the first half of the season.
Chester Taylor also had a fine
season. He rushed for 844 yards
and 7 touchdowns. Minnesota and
Jacksonville easily have the best running back duos in the NFL.
While Peterson and Taylor are good,
the line is one of the best in the business. McKinney and Hutchinson make up the left side of the line
and Birk is a tremendous center.
It is imperative that McKinnie not be suspended for his disorderly
conduct and resisting arrest charges that are still pending in a Miami
courtroom.
On defense the Vikings may have the
best front 4 in football. Pat and
Kevin Williams are two mammoth defensive tackles that stop the run extremely
well. New to the mix is Jared
Allen, acquired in a trade with Kansas City. He had 15.5 sacks in 14 games last season. He gives them the pass rusher they
sorely missed last season. That
should help the Vikings improve on their 32nd ranked pass defense.
On special teams Ryan Longwell is a
steady and reliable kicker. It
remains to be seen if the Vikings will continue to use Peterson as a return
man.
Weaknesses: For as good as the Vikings were running
the ball and stopping the run, they were equally bad passing the ball and
stopping the pass.
Let’s start with the pass
defense. It was ranked 32nd
last year, but the Vikings have addressed that. Allen should help out with that. They also signed Madieu Williams and Michael Boulware to
help at the safety spot. Finally
they drafted Tyrell Johnson to help in the secondary. If Sharper, Winfield, and Griffin can raise their level of
play and Allen give them the pass rush they have lacked the pass defense should
be much improved in 2008. They
forced a lot of turnovers in 2007.
Now they just need to stop people from catching the ball.
That leaves the passing game. The Vikings ranked 32nd in
pass attempts, 28th in passing yards, and 29th in passing
touchdowns. They got 3rd
receiver type production out of their number one and number two receivers. Darrell Bevell said this about the
Tarvaris Jackson, the Vikings 3rd year QB, “"He's been
outstanding this offseason," Bevell said. "He's been in here watching,
studying. He's been out here training, trying to get better at the things he
needs to get better at, and I couldn't ask for anything more from him."
Jackson is the key to the 2008
season for the Vikings and that is an excellent sign. The Vikings need to get more production out of their pass
game. Jackson progressed well in
year 2 and if the Vikings are going to contend for the playoffs and possibly
advance to a Super Bowl they need him to progress even more.
Even if Jackson is improving, the
Vikings still have a weak receiving core.
Bernard Berrian will help, but he is by no means a proven number one
receiver even though he is being paid like one. Sidney Rice showed promise as a rookie, but still needs to
develop. Bobby Wade and Robert
Ferguson are journeymen players.
The Vikings have a lot of #2 and #3 receivers, but nobody that screams
dominant number one guy. Berrian
and Rice are the most likely on the roster to emerge.
Prediction: I think the Vikings are
in position to grab control of this division. They have the best offensive player in the division in
Peterson. The defensive line is
probably the best in the NFL. They
have a great offensive line. All
the pieces are in place to win the division and compete in the NFC.
The question mark is the
quarterback and the passing game.
If Jackson were a proven commodity I would say the Vikings would be the
favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. The problem is they were 1st in rush offense and
defense a year ago and that got them 8-8.
The Vikings need production in the passing game and can only go as far
as he takes them.
The schedule looks tougher than it
really is. The Vikings caught a
number of breaks. The 13-3 Packers
are factored into their strength of schedule twice. Few people are thinking the Packers will repeat that
record. They drew no cold weather
sites in November and December, which is something the Vikings traditionally
struggle with. They face the
easier part of the schedule in the second half of the season. They play Chicago, at Detroit, at
Arizona, and Houston from Week 13-16 before closing with the NY Giants at
home. That bodes well for them
taking control of the division with a late season surge.
I look for the Vikings to make the
playoffs for the first time since 2004.
I think they will win the NFC North for the first time in their
franchise history and their first divisional title since their NFC Central
crown back in 2000.
2008 Strength of Schedule: 136-120
(.531) (11th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Packers had an unbelievably
balanced team in 2007. They
finished 4th in points scored and 6th in points
allowed. Favre had an impressive
season, finishing 2nd in the MVP race. Grant had the most yards of any back in the NFL not named
Tomlinson in the second half of the regular season. Mason Cosby finished 2nd in the Pro Bowl voting
at kicker. Other than at Chicago,
Ryan did a decent job of punting.
Even the special teams gave good contributions in the return game. Robinson and Williams were strong in
that regard.
There were few changes that needed to
be made and people assumed #4 would come back for a final title run. However, that changed on March 4, 2008
and now one player leaving has created a lot of questions. It is hard to judge the Packers 2008
chances with such a key member of their offense gone. What the Packers should
still be able to expect is a good defense. That starts with the front 7 and the corners.
The Packers have an extremely deep
defensive line. Kampan is a great
pass rusher that supports the run well.
Jenkins does well at stopping the run and moves to DT on passing
downs. KGB, Jolly, Harrell and
others provide good depth.
The linebackers support the run
well, but they struggle to cover the pass and in particular the tight end. That should improve simply by not
facing Gates, Gonzalez, and Shockey this season. Still, there are good tight ends on the schedule and they
need to improve in that area.
Barnett is always solid and Hawk is on the verge of making a Pro Bowl.
The secondary is a mixed bag. Harris and Woodson may be the best
corner duo in the NFL. They are
extremely physical. While they
draw a lot of interference calls they make up for it with picks, stopping 3rd
downs, and wearing down receivers.
However, both are over 30 years old. Bigby had an up and down first year starting, but ended up
being the NFC Defensive Player of the Month in December and was lights out in
the playoffs. He needs to play
like he did at the end of the year.
The Packers have issues at their other safety spot and in nickel and
dime packages. They need players
to step up there.
All in all this is a very young
defensive unit other than the corners.
This defense is going to have to carry the load in 2008 while the
offense adjusts, something they should be capable of doing in a lot of games.
Weaknesses: It’s been a long time since we said the
offense was the weakness of the Green Bay Packers. That is where the Pack finds themselves in 2008. I don’t want to come across as having
the mentality that there is no life after Favre. He had a lot of help last year and I like a lot of things
the Packers have going on offense.
But I also think people need to understand how key he was to what the
Packers did. To assume a 4th
year QB that has yet to start a NFL game can just step in and keep the ball
rolling is not realistic. It is
not fair to Aaron Rodgers.
With regards to Rodgers, he may
very well end up being a great quarterback. As a Packer fan I hope he does. But one good half of football is too small of a sample to
say he is definitely going to succeed.
Throw out the Dallas game, it means nothing. I like how he has progressed in making reads and his command
of the offense since his rookie year.
That was showing the entire 2007 preseason. What I am worried about is his durability. The injuries have been freakish in
nature, but it is a bad omen to be injured as the NFL’s all time most durable
starting quarterback’s backup.
Brian Braum is a promising prospect, but not ready to carry this offense
as a rookie.
The receivers are solid and the
strength of the offense. They are
great athletes and ranked number one in yards after the catch. Driver is a
veteran presence, Jennings looks to be an up and comer, and Jones, Martin, and
Nelson all provide good depth. Lee
had a good year at tight end. There is a lot of talent there that will help
Rodgers make the transition.
Remember that the yards after the
catch they were getting were partially the result of teams being scared of #4’s
ability to throw the deep ball.
Those same cushions are not going to be there until teams respect
Rodger’s deep ball. I expect those guys to be solid and put up good numbers,
but not be as explosive down the field or in yards after the catch as they were
in 2007.
The offensive line is
interesting. The tackles are good,
but they are very young at guard and center. The line gelled well as the season progressed and became a
strength of the team. Part of the
reason that the Packers could go so many 4 and 5 wide receiver sets is because
of #4’s command of the offense and his ability to get rid of the ball
quickly. The Packers surrendered
only 19 sacks, tied for 3rd in the NFL. The quicker Rodgers can get rid of the ball, the more
4 and 5 receiver sets they can use to take advantage of the talent they have at
receiver.
Finally, we get to the running
back. Who is the real Ryan
Grant? Is he the back that had 201
yards and 3 touchdowns against Seattle or the one that had 29 yards and 0
touchdowns against the Giants? 1
would have had the same questions with Favre coming back. 10 games are not enough to anoint a guy
a star running back. The Packers
are going to try to feature him in the offense to take pressure of Rodgers and
he is going to have to prove he can handle the increased attention he will see
from defenses. He is perfect for
that zone-blocking scheme and I expect him to get over 1,000 yards and 7-9
touchdowns.
Prediction: I find it entertaining
how people seem to think the Packers are not going to have problems without
Brett Favre in 2008. The mentality
that the Packers have a great young team and Rodgers is just ready to step in
based on a good half against Dallas.
Since 1992 the Packers have
finished in the top 10 in both yards gained and points scored every year other
than 1992, 1993, 2002, 2005, and 2006.
In 2007 the Packers finished 2nd in passing yards, 4th
in points scored, 6th in touchdown passes, and 11th in
interceptions thrown.
This is a huge loss. It cannot be overstated. This is not Montana and his 16
touchdown passes retiring from the Chiefs in 1994. This is not Dan Marino and his 11 touchdown passes retiring
from the Dolphins in 1999. Those
guys are All Time Greats, but were very average at the end of their
career. Even if you take out the
fact the Packers are losing an All-Time Great player and leader, they are still
losing their best offensive player from 2007 at the NFL’s most important
position.
There are still a lot of good
players on the team. I don’t
expect the Packers to bottom out at 4-12 in 2008. The team is going to want to show they can still win and
will be motivated to do well without #4.
There are plenty of NFL teams in a worse situation.
Had Favre come back, I would have
thought 10-6 or 11-5 would be realistic, just based on the tougher schedule.
The Packers have a lot of tough games in 2008. They play Dallas, at Seattle, Minnesota twice, at Tampa, at
New Orleans, Indy, at Jacksonville, and at Tennessee. I think you are going to see games where they amaze and
games where they really struggle.
A lack of consistency is what worries me about the Packers. 8-8 and just missing the playoffs is a
realistic expectation. They should
be able to get back to the playoffs in 2009 if their young players continue to
grow and they add more young talent to supplement some of their aging positions
at the offensive tackles and cornerback.
Green Bay Packers’ Record: 8-8 –
NFC North 2nd Place; No Playoffs
3) Detroit
Lions
07 Record: 7-9
Points Scored: 346 (16th)
Points Allowed: 444 (32nd)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 139-117
(.543) (10th in NFL)
Strengths: The Lions had a great passing attack
under passing guru Mike Martz. He
is no longer with the team, but the offense still has plenty of weapons. Jon Kitna is the most established QB in
the division and Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, Mike Furrey, and Shaun McDonald
give him a lot of weapons. Roy
Williams is a solid target and Calvin Johnson is a freak and should have a much
better 2nd year now that he has experience and is healthy. The Lions should be able to throw the
ball and put points up on the board.
Kitna has to throw fewer interceptions. He ranked 2nd in 2006 and 1st in 2007
in that regard. He also has to
take fewer sacks, as he led the league in that regard in both 2006 and 2007.
This was a team that started the
2007 season 6-2, but finished 1-7.
When they were winning their passing offense was not the only thing
carrying them. They were good at
forcing turnovers early in the season.
The Lions had 17 interceptions, which ranked 14th in the NFL,
which is right around the middle of the pack. They finished 9th in sacks with 37. That made up for their 31st
ranked pass defense. Fernando
Bryant is no longer with the team.
Leigh Bodden, Brian Kelly, and Dwight Smith are expected to help in that
regard.
Shaun Rodgers is gone from the
defensive line. It will be
interesting to see how that affects the run defense, which ranked 23rd
in the NFL with him. Corry Redding
and Chuck Darby will have to step up their play. Ernie Sims is a fantastic young linebacker. Boss Bailey is now in Denver, but never
really did live up to expectations in Detroit. The Lions have good individual players on defense, but
need them to step up and making their units more competitive. Other than sacks and picks there wasn’t
much this defense did right in 2007.
Jason Hanson is still the kicker
and a mainstay in Detroit. He has
been with the Lions since 1992 and is considered one of the more reliable
kickers in the NFL.
Weaknesses: This team really lacked a running game. They ranked 32nd in rushing
attempts and 31st in rushing yards. Many people blamed Mike Martz for that. Keep in mind that he coached Marshall
Faulk and Steven Jackson in St Louis.
While he definitely prefers the forward pass, he has had successful
backs in his system. Part of the
Lions inability to run the ball stemmed from their running backs, poor
offensive line, and defense that did not give them leads on a consistent basis.
The Lions got rid of Kevin Jones
and TJ Duckett and retained Tatum Bell.
They drafted Kevin Smith in the 3rd round. They are also instituting a
zone-blocking scheme, which is catching on in the NFL. The Lions still figure to be weak
running the ball in 2008. Zone
blocking schemes do not make bad lineman good nor does it make bad running
backs great. I watched Green Bay
make that transition and it took over a year to see results. Bell had good games in a zone-blocking
scheme in Denver. He needs to step
up his production in 2008. It will
be interesting if Smith is able to have a breakout rookie year as the two split
time.
The offensive line needs to improve
on the 54 sacks they gave up in 2007.
That is one reason why the Lions throw so many interceptions. Quarterbacks need time to find people
down field. When you finish last
in the NFL in rushing attempts, 31st in rushing yards gained, and
give up the 3rd most sacks there aren’t many positives to look at on
the offensive line. That was the major motivation for selecting Gosder Cherilus
in the first round. He will be
asked to step in immediately.
On defense they have to hope the
people they added in the secondary can cover better. Even if the secondary did improve, they still need their
front 7 to stop the run and create pressure. Look how a bad run defense hurt Bailey and Bly in
Denver. Until the Lions improve on
stopping the run it will be impossible for them to get maximum production out
of their secondary.
Prediction: The Lions were a team
that I was not sold on last season, even when they started 6-2. I was one of the people that said that
team would crash in the second half of the season and they did just that. Matt Millen has proven time and time
again that he cannot draft well and that he is unable to put his coaches in a
position to succeed. There are
good parts, but they don’t fit together to make a good product.
The Lions have a good passing
offense and having a coordinator that isn’t quite so pass happy will take
pressure of that offense. Their
receivers will cause problems for team and I expect a decent offensive showing
from the Lions.
What I also expect is they will
struggle to stop Indy, Jacksonville, and New Orleans on offense. I expect Tennessee and Tampa Bay to
give them fits with their defense.
Finally, I think Green Bay and Minnesota will get the better of them in
division games. What it amounts to
is Kitna predicting 10 wins and reality delivering another 6 or 7 win season
and another year of missing the playoffs.
Detroit Lions’ Record: 6-10 – NFC North 3rd Place;
No Playoffs
4) Chicago
Bears
07 Record: 7-9
Points Scored: 334 (18th)
Points Allowed: 348 (16th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 136-120
(.531) (11th (t) in NFL)
Strengths:The Bears have always had offensive
issues. What they traditionally
relied on was a very strong defense.
In 2005 they finished 1st in points allowed and 2nd
in yards allowed. In their
2006 Super Bowl season they finished 3rd and 5th in those
areas. They have been one of the
best teams at forcing turnovers.
That has allowed the less than stellar offense to work with a short
field and control the clock with the run.
That never panned out last
season. The Bears offense was
still not explosive, but the defense failed them. They finished 16th in points allowed and 28th
in yards allowed. Brian Urlacher
was hurt and did not play up to his standards. Mike Brown was lost for the season. The Bears had a very injured unit.
The defensive line is still
strong. Tommy Harris is a
fantastic defensive tackle. Alex
Brown, Mark Anderson, and Adewale Ogunleye all provide a strong pass rush. They are still looking for a
replacement for Tank Johnson to play opposite Harris at the defensive tackle.
The linebackers are still great
too. Urlacher is one of the best
in the business, but did battle injuries last season. He is unhappy with his contract. At least Lance Briggs is happy; as he did sign the long-term
deal he had been looking for the last couple seasons. He is a 3-time Pro Bowler.
In the secondary Brown, Tillman,
Vasher, R. Manning, D. Manning and McBride give the Bears a number of people
for coverage and making big plays.
They just need everyone to stay healthy. If they can do that they will be able to force turnovers,
which is a must for a Cover 2 team.
That will help offense produce enough in short field situations to give
the Bears defense leads and rest.
If that happens there is still enough defensive talent to carry this
team to the playoffs.
Last, but certainly not least are
the special teams. Devin
Hester. He is the Bears best
weapon at this point. After just 2
seasons he is in the discussion for best return man in the history of the
NFL. He makes a lot of big plays
in the return game and as a wide receiver. The Bears will look to involve him even more as a receiver
in 2008. Brendon Ayanbadejo made the Pro Bowl as the special teams
specialist. Finally, Robbie Gould
is a solid kicker. The Bears
probably have the best special teams in the NFL.
Weaknesses: The problem is there just isn’t a lot
of talent on offense. As bad as it
was last year it is worse in 2008.
That starts with the quarterbacks.
Grossman is very inconsistent and Orton is consistently poor. Neither has shown they are capable of
leading a team to sustained playoff success, even though Orton won 10 games as
a rookie and Grossman was the quarterback for the Bears in their 06 Super Bowl
run. They need one of them to
emerge, but there is no reason to believe either will. The Bears did nothing to sign a
quarterback in free agency or draft a young one to develop. I believe that was a huge mistake.
Then we get to receiver. Marty Booker, Brandon Lloyd, Devin
Hester, Mark Bradley, and Rashied Davis.
None of those guys are acceptable #3 receivers on average passing teams
at this point. It is either possession
receivers or home run hitters.
There is no receiver that is a complete package in the group. The fact that two of them must start is
not good news for the passing game.
Clark and Olson are quality tight ends and the best targets this team
has in the passing game.
Then there is the offensive
line. Fred Miller was released
this summer at tackle. They hope
Chris Williams will be able to step in and contribute immediately. Tait, Metcallf, Kreutz, and Clair are
all 30 or older. Garza is the youngster
at 29. The line is starting
to get old and the Bears could use an infusion of youth at those
positions. Fred Miller was not the
only thing holding that line back.
Finally, there is the running back
spot. Benson has been waived after
2 arrests in 5 weeks. Adrian
Peterson, Garrett Wolfe, and Matt Forte round out below average backfield. As a whole, the Bears offense is among
the most unproven in the NFL.
There is not one unit that is worthy of being considered a team
strength. It should finish among
the worst in the NFL in terms of yards gained and points scored.
Prediction: I know Bears fans will
point to the fact that they went to a Super Bowl in 2006 with an average
offense. That they went 11-5 and
won the division with the 26th ranked scoring offense in 2005. The feeling in Chicago is that defense
wins championships and the Bears have the defense.
I’m just not seeing it. Some of those key Bears players have
started to get older. Urlacher is
starting to have health issues and Mike Brown can never stay healthy. Without those two this defense becomes
average very quickly. Last season
the Bears defense couldn’t carry this team and they really struggled as a team
to consistently win. The Bears
first winning streak was in Week 16 and 17 after they had been eliminated from
playoff contention.
This year the offense is even
worse. Benson, Berrian, and
Muhammad were nothing extraordinary, but they were better than what the Bears
have. Griese is no longer around
if Grossman struggles. There are a
lot of questions on offense and not enough answers on defense. The Bears are not the same defense they
were in 2005 and 2006.
The Bears get a very tough
schedule. The Colts, Jags, and
Titans all have tremendous defenses.
The Packers have a young and upcoming defense. The Vikings have one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Bucs are traditionally tough on
defense. That is half their
schedule that they may not score more than 10-14 points per game against. The defense will keep the Bears in
those games, but I’m not sure the defense will be able to carry them to many
victories.
The Bears window has closed in my
opinion and it is time to look toward overhauling the offense and adding some
younger pieces on defense. Only
time will tell how long it takes the Bears to do that.
Chicago Bears’ Record: 5-11 – NFC North 4th Place;
No Playoffs
That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008. I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July. I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008. Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews. You have made writing these a lot of fun.
As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.
Street Cred, good analysis. My problem with the Vikes/Pack rankings are this.
You are discounting the packs chances because of arod. But arod is arguably better than jackson. plus wr's help qb's. and GB has a stocked cupboard compared to the vikes garbage.
Peterson is the best rb in the division, but he has an injury history. so you assume that he will be healthly, based on that you can assume that grant will be able to do the same things he did last year. Edge to the Vikes, but the pack is not a liablility in the run game.
Vikes OL/DL lines are better than the packers, but the packers lines are still in the top ten area in the league.
The vikes will be better at rushing the passer, but they are still horrible in the back field. you can't dismiss that. The pack should have an even better DB with the drafting of lee and experience for tramon williams.
Coaching- McCarthy has proven that he can win with inexperience and youth, why doubt him now.
I see this being a very close division and could go either way. as a packer fan you know which way I want it to go.
Street Crred the other interesting thing is how the "Favre made all the Wr's for the pack." "Favre opened the running lanes for Grant" "Favre is the reason the OL looked good" If all these statements are true...it could be a very long season.
Good predictions, StreetCred, this is about how I had it playing out. Some of the records are different, and I actually have Chicago placing above Detroit.
Crujka - Thanks for the comments. Good comments on Grant and the receiving core. Packers are light years ahead of the Vikes there.
I don't see how you can say Rodgers is arguably better than Jackson at this point. Jackson has been in the Vikings system for 2 years and has thrown 375 regular season passes and started 14 games. Rodgers has 59 attempts in 7 regular season appearances. We haven't seen enough of Rodgers to know if he is better or not.
I think Rodgers has more upside, but upside doesn't win games. Vikings have a huge advantage in being able to take the Packer run away and rush Allen besides. Vikings D will be tough for GB to score on.
I expcet Rodgers to do what first year starters do. Impress in some games struggle in others and finish around .500 and just short of the playoffs.
My prediction is that as frustrated as some Packer fans were with #4 and those occasional 3 pick games, people are going to come to appreciate the consistency he brought to that position that has been taken for granted with his mostly stellar play over the years.
Last edited by StreetCred on June 11th at 9:03 AM.
Greenspire - Thanks for the post. I could see that too. I have them one game apart, so Detroit finishing in the cellar would not surprise me. Glad you enjoyed the post.
T. Jasckon has a career 69 passer rating, and 50, 63.1, and 90 for the last three games of last year. I would be amazed if rodgers passer rating is worse than 80. once again no proof, but gut feeling. rodgers will be very inconsistent, no doubt about that
Crujka - Your killing me, lol. Making me defend the Viking. I need to copy this discussion and show it to the people that think I can't be objective.
Can't just look at the bad and not the good. What about his play in the 4 game stretch from Week 10 to 13 where he posted ratings of 79.9, 139.2, 110.4, and 95.9 and had 4 touchdown passes to 2 picks; games in which the Vikings went 4-0?
He was up and he was down last year. He is the reason I am not picking them to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. But, he has only started 14 games and still has upside. I expect he will play better in 2008.
Then there is Rodgers. Lets say he has a rating of 80.0. Remember Eli Manning can't break 80.0 in the regular season so that is easier said than done.
That would still be a 15 point drop from Favre last year, which is going to hurt that offense that played so well last year.
Here is what I am expecting from Rodgers this year. 2800 to 3200 yards passing, 15-20 Tds, 10-15 picks and a 75.0 to 80.0 rating. I think that is a realistic expectation for a guy playing his first season as a starter. If he did that I would be happy about what is yet to come.
Last edited by StreetCred on June 11th at 9:31 AM.
Good stuff Cred you are getting better with the objectivity game:-) Can't argue with to many of your points. I think Crujka's post stating..."Street Crred the other interesting thing is how the "Favre made all the Wr's for the pack." "Favre opened the running lanes for Grant" "Favre is the reason the OL looked good" If all these statements are true...it could be a very long season."
Should definitely be valid concerns for the pack, and Grant's production came often from those 4 and 5 wr sets you mentioned. While there was some coming from lineing up 2 wr 2 te's sets later in the season, it still looked as though much of his yards came out of multiple receiver sets, draws, and delays, which covered up some of the interior line problems the pack had last year. If those aformentioned concerns by Crujka are taken care of it will be a lot closer race, if those concerns are reality, you may have to flip the lions and packers record, or rely on a lot of defensive scoring. I also believe Rodgers may start fine (after the monday night game of course, lol), but will tail off toward the end of the season once more film of him gets out to d-coordinators, and they can pick up tendencies and such. I will say this current crop of packer receivers has looked pretty good, so while there may some drop-off from Favre, they will be a strength in helping Rodgers.
I don't see the Vikings running away in this division, though I can see them winning it. You make a great point about their schedule and the timing of it.
While the Bears are in a bit of chaos right now, I think they will be a better team this year. Without Benson and Musin Muhammed, they have rid themselves of some attitude issues. Urlacher will show up to play and play well. If they can be a healthier team, believe the Vikes, Packers and Bears will all fall into the 10-6,9-7,8-8 category.
If Rodgers can be what the Packers thought when he was drafted, they will hold off the Vikes and Bears. Despite his inexperience compared to Jackson, Rodgers is a polished pro-style QB from his Cal days, while Jackson has to develop his pocket presence.
Minnesota IS an excellent running team, but think GB will be a better running team this year just because they have to be. Stopping the run by Minnesota is somewhat overvalued because you have pointed out their flaws in pass defense. It is a pass first, run last league now. All of the good teams will exploit them early in games to which running the ball in the 2nd half becomes a statistical anomaly.
Most consistent QB play and best team defense wins this division. Good stuff, StreetCred.
sorry streetcred...I have had to play devil's advocate for the queens being god this year too. Painful. How do you Vikings fans stick up for your team? The one thing the Vikings have going against them, is that when they are expected to do something, they lay an egg.
Same could be said for 31 teams every year that don't win the superbowl. Including the Pack last year. How do I route for my team you ask, I look at the arizona cardinals, and the detroit lions type of teams in the league, and thank my lucky stars I have some hope going into most seasons :-)
just noticed i spelled your name wrong, my bad wasn't intentional
Last edited by scramblinfran on June 11th at 12:17 PM.
scramblin fan, is it good that you use the lions and cardinals to make yourself feel good? I know what you mean, that is the way I view the vikings. (had to take it) I have a ton of friends that are vikings fans, as long as they cheer for them when they are 15-1 or 5-11, they are quality fans. Can't stand all the bandwagon fans in the twin cities, weak.
Street Cred
Well with all that's going on within the Bears' organization I for one will be completely surprised if they're able to post a winning record this season.
Benson is gone and they've made so many ridiculous personnel decisions over the last couple of years that it's insane to think that the GM still has a job.
I do also feel that Lovie Smith'll be under a great deal of pressure to succeed this year. If he's unable to then he may well be shown the door.
As to the records that you foresee the teams garnering this upcoming season. I think that they're as astute as anything that I've, seen , read or heard. Kudos to you !
StreetCred - ditto from LisaH's comments. I have mentioned to the NASCAR crowd that any football fans need to check out your previews and a hyperlink would help. Thanks.
Sorry, but I tend to agree with crjulka on the Vikes vs. Packers... Jackson has more experience, but Rodgers wins out in comparison. Triggerman in football is critical, he can make or break you. Triggerman with good receivers vs. triggerman with a good runner... Give me the receivers in this day and age... Packers D is better too.
Detroit will challenge the Vikes for second. Da Bears are bringing up da rear...
scramblin. Thanks for the comments. I agree. Many a quarterback has started off hot and cooled off once tendencies are discovered. Rodgers will have to go through that just like anyone.
Moseby - Thanks for the comments. Excellent point on Rodgers and Jackson comparing pocket presence. I agree with that. Vikings have to stop pass better too if they wan to win. I think Allen will help them do taht.
crjulka - I don't get it either. That is the good thing about the Vikings. I've lived in Minneapolis / St Paul. Mention 1998 and they will go running for the corner, lol.
scramblin - I agree with crjulka on this one. Having lived in the Twin Cities is is extremely bandwagon like and beating the Packers twice is more important than making the playoffs for a lot of teams.
Lisa H and Moseby - Thanks for the comments and I put those links on there. You should be able to access every posted division on each page. Let me know if you have any problems linking to anything. Don't know why I didn't think of doing that on my own. Also, thanks for sending people to my blog. I appreciate that.
Dwindy1 - Thanks for the post. I agree with you guys on Rodgers. He is much more polished and looks more comfortable in the pocket. Based on what I have seen I would choose Rodgers as well. But what I am also saying is that Rodgers has played so little we can't be certain he is better. He has to prove that on the field this season.
Last edited by StreetCred on June 11th at 3:15 PM.
Cred,
Yes the TWIN CITIES is extremely band-wagon, however they are the Minnesota Vikings not the TC vikings :-).
Can't argue on any of the Rodgers t-jack comparisons stated by you, and others. My only comeback as week as it may be is that he hasn't seen the game experience as you mentioned, and is just as big a question mark as Jackson is in that regard. Jackson may bring a tinge more mobility to the table however.
as a die-hard Vikings fan let me summarize the Tar-Tar vs. A-rod(gawd I hope you Cheeseheads come up with a better nickname for him than that) in one short, sweet, simple sentence.
Time for Deh's Analysis, lol. (Sheesh I need to get a cool name for this.) Ok, let's start.
Minn: Not surprised they did not make the playoffs last year. The only reason why I agree with you that this team will clinch the division is not because this team is really good but because this division will be really weak this year. Nice praising the running parts of their teams which is well deserved but this team even when making the playoffs will be one and done with the makeup of this team. Jackson MUST become better at QB or Booty will take over.
Sure Jared Allen came to Minn. and will improve the pass rush but the pass defense has to improve. Pressuring the QB isn't enough to stop the pass. They need to improve in pass defense, not too much but just a little because they were average at preventing TD passes. It would be nice to see them being elite there. One of the problems is that they don't have a corner opposite Antoine Winfield that is good. Winfield proved a big factor for the team, too: the Vikings allowed 17.9 PPG in his 10 starts, 22.0 PPG in the six games he missed. Keeping Winfield healthy and adding FS Madieu Williams to the secondary should help, but the Vikings need growth from young CBs Marcus McCauley and Cedric Griffin. More half of the points scored on this D came through the air. This team can't depend on AD to be Jesus and save them due to just how the pro game is now and also due to his injury history.
GB: This team is a little tough to figure out with Favre being gone. Can Rodgers stay on the field and do well? That will be what determines this team. The defense has been good with McCarthy here. The special teams has been nice. Cosby as I still believe should have been in the Pro Bowl instead of Folk. Yeah the punting game in Chicago was horrenous and humiliating but with wind during that game that shouldn't have been a surprise.
I have to disagree on what you said that it's been a while since the offense being the weakness of GB. In 2005-2006 when this team 4-12 & 8-8, it was more due to Farve being reckless then the D. I just think it is fair to throw the D under the bus when it isn't true but yeah most of the time the Off. has been good with #4 at the helm.
Now we'll see about the offense this year. Can Aaron Rodgers show that he deserved to wait to be QB or will it be Brian Brohm or Matt Flynn who takes the spot? Will Grant show that he wasn't a half a season wonder or will he show that he is the RB of this team?
But you are right with comparing when Favre retired to Marino and Montana. Favre had 28 TDs last year which isn't a weak number. I hope this team does well for your sake.
Det: How can I say this so it doesn't look like I'm trying to trash this team? LOL. Ok.
The pass offense was ok but was more to Martz's play calling that inflated the numbers. Running game wasn't bad. I don't mind letting Jones go due to injuries and he really wasn't a good runner. Sure if you look at his career #s, you will see 4.0 YPA as his career average, which is good for a RB but in his rookie year he ran 4.7 per carry. So the other years he was running below average. I don't think they should have gotten rid of Duckett especially since he was the best RB they had last year. Duckett with Bell would have been a good RB combo. The O-Line sucked but Kitna needs to improve instead of making predictions.
The pass defense was completely HORRIBLE and #### last year. They became the first team ever to allow opposing passers to complete more than 70% of their throws. And Matt Millen as the typical #### he is doesn't draft a DB until the seventh round. His love for WRs was more important as shown in the fifth round. I guess he thought by having an NFL record at ineptitude was better than being good. I can't see this team being good until this #### is gone.
Deh,
got to play devils advocate a little bit on our defense. Even though it would be nice to hold down the passing attacks of other teams, I could really care less if they give up a good chunk of passing yards per game, it really doesn't mean anything. The Main stat I care about is the points allowed category, and turnover margin. If you look we were 12, according to MR. Cred up top which sounds right, in PA. and we were tied for 13 with Denver and Carolina with Plus 1 in TO margin(incidently we were tied for 9th in total takeaways with 31). Not eye popping, but with the help of some of the new additions on D, and the hopeful continued development of guys like Greenway, Ray Edwards, McCauley, Griffin, and Robison to name a few Improving on last years not only passing yards allowed, but takeaways and TO margin if Jackson and the offense can get some things going.
I apologize scramblinfran. I'll fix it. I had Detroit in my head when I typed that. Got to lay off the weed at work, lol. Minn did do not too bad at preventing pass scoring but still they need to improve either way though.
Chi: When the QB with the best career stats of franchise history played from over 50years ago(Sid Luckman(1939-1950) that tells you something is wrong with this team. It says 2 things. They can't find a QB who can be good or the orginization would back too much on the QB's abilities. The QB situation is not pretty in Chicago now. The receiver situation is interesting in some way. Like you said StreetCred, these guys are no more than #3s right now. O-line did not play up to par last year. The RB situation is bad and I still think Chi. overreacted with releasing Benson. I didn't pay attention the second arrest but the first arrest was actually uncalled for. He has witnesses who were on and off the boat who said that the cops were assaulting him for no reason. Unless they believe Matt Forte will be a stud from Day 1 then this was an unnecessary move.
The defense stunk last year due to especially injuries. The D will improve if they stay healthy this year. I just think that with how horrendous the O will be this team won't do much.
Dehbashi - Thanks for the comments as always. Something I think you need to remember about 2005. The Packers had injuries to Green, Davenport, and Fisher. They had to sign Gado off waivers and he was the third string back at Liberty. Then they lost Walker, Murphy, Franks, and Ferguson to injuries. To boot they played Chicago twice and Cincy who led the league in picks that year. I think Favre had 14 of his 29 picks in those 3 games.
Eric Kasilias made a great analogy about that. He said that Favre was asked to bring a knife to a gun fight that entire season. He rebounded nicely with a very young team in 06 and once those guys gained experience blew up again in 07.
I have a difficult time believing that Brady or Manning could have done better with the Pack in 05 and 06. In my opinion, nobody ever did more with less in the history of the NFL than #4. In 05 and 06 it was amazing he didn't get hurt with that very young line and that he put up any numbers at all considering his skill position players.
Last edited by StreetCred on June 12th at 11:14 AM.
Something must be wrong with me today. My brain hasn't been working properly today. 05 was a disaster for that team. The defense couldn't force turnovers and had somewhat trouble of stopping scoring. I don't really care too much about the running situation since I'm the pass first, run second type of person. Recievers were injured so his numbers did go down. I disagree with the knife to the gunfight because I believe that INTs were Brett's fault. Remember McCarthy from day 1 was trying to prevent him from slinging it all over the place. Remember this guy was throwing it into double and triple coverage a bit.
I don't know if GB fumbled the ball once in those three games you mentioned but this was the turnovers totals. Cin: 5, Chi: 4, Chi: 4. That would 13 which is close to your numbers. In 06', he got injured against the Pats, I think a knee or shoulder. But yeah remember as the Seahawks players said, "This guy is a machine." So don't be surprised if he doesn't get hurt too bad.
Dehbashi - I went back and looked at the gamelogs. He had 6 picks in 2 games against the Bears and 5 against the Bengals, giving him 11. I knew it was a bunch, I just couldn't remember the exact number.
NFL.com offers a great tool called situational stats. In 2007 74% of the passes Favre threw were either with the score tied or the lead. Contrast that with 06 when only 53% of his throws were with a tie or the lead and 2005 when only 34% of his passes were with a tie or the lead. Futhermore, 17 of those 29 picks were with the Pack trailing by 9 or more points.
It's easy to blame the QB for throwing picks. Did Favre play stupid in 2005, yes. Were the Pack behind partially because of his poor play, absolutely.
But it is a team game and when you have a defense that can't make stops, targets that can't get open, and runners that can't gain first downs you are left to play from behind much of the time and be in obvious passing downs. Combine that with a quarterback who is the ultimate competitor and believes that he can make any throw and comeback from any deficit and you get 29 intercpetions.
Favre did not get a fair shake in 2005. Ron Wolf said that half the players on that offense were borderline NFL players. It was a disservice to Favre to have to go through a season like that, but injuries are part of the game. It was like giving Favre a saw and Manning a chainsaw. Both can do the same job and cut down a big tree, but using a saw is going to take a lot more work and it gets to a point where the tree becomes so big that the job becomes impossible.
Last edited by StreetCred on June 12th at 1:21 PM.
Ok that was the number then. Hmm I may look at NFL.com more often now. I still don't agree the knife to a gunfight because it's still possible to win with a knife. Anyway, is Wolf still the GM by the way? If it is then the quote of those players being borderline NFL players must mean he sucked at drafting for the a few years then.
Yeah, you can win with a knife, but the odds are against you. No, Wolf was not the GM by then. i think he left around 02. Most of those guys were guys they picked up off waivers because everyone was on IR.
One thing I will tell you is that I respect #4 more for how he conducted himself in 2005 than for anything he did in his career. He never blamed the injuries. He never blamed the coaches. He never quit on the team. He never blamed anyone when the Milwaukee Journal did a poll and 80% of the fans wanted to see a trade. He did what a leader does. He took the blame, made no excuses, and gave it his all the next game. He was a class act.
I can think of 100 guys that would have not played hard, fake an injury, or would have turned the team into a circus. The way he handled that shows why he is one of the best leaders in the history of team sports and why he was so respected around the league. It shows why he was so successful for such a long time.
Last edited by StreetCred on June 12th at 1:31 PM.
A lot of people forget that Favre had 14 touchdowns and 8 interceptions in the first 6 games of that 05 season. That was all without Walker who was hurt in the first game against the Lions. Then once the injuries really started to take their toll he finished with 6 touchdowns and 15 interceptions over the last 9. I think not having Walker, Ferguson, Murphy, Green, Davenport, and Franks might have had something to do with that.
Take Moss, Stallworth, Maroney, Morris, Faulk, and Watson off the Patriots last year and give him one of the 10 worst defenses in the NFL and see how many TDs to interceptions Brady has. I can gurantee you that would not go good.
Last edited by StreetCred on June 12th at 1:43 PM.
Ok couldn't remember about Wolf. I don't remember in 05 the Pack having so many people on IR. I would remember that. Oh well. I respected him for that as well taking the blame.
Those are the guys that were supposed to conrtibute. Favre completed passes to 18 different players that year. The Pack were starting Antonio Chapman. They signed Rod Garner. Andrae Thurman was seeing the field. Walter Williams even caught a ball.
That year was just a circus. It was who could get hurt today and what 4th or 5th receiver could the Pack start next. It would be like putting Brady on the Dolphins the second half of the 2007 season and asking him to lead the Dolphins to the playoffs. It was as frustrating as anything I have ever watched.
