This is my fifth of eight NFL division previews. While there is still over a month until training camps, most of the rosters are complete. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of training camp. However, this is how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.
The AFC North is a division that has some of the best rivalries in the NFL. These teams and their fans really do not like each other. The Bengals appeared to be poised to dominate the division after an 11-5 record with a young offensive core in 2005. The Steelers beat them in the Wildcard Round, won the Super Bowl, and appeared to be in complete control of the division. The Bengals have been irrelevant since. The Steelers didn’t even make the playoffs after their Super Bowl win and the 13-3 Baltimore Ravens remerged in 2006. Then the Ravens crashed to 5-11 as the Steelers took back the division. Forgotten, have been the Cleveland Browns, who came out of nowhere to win 10 games in 2007. They were one of the biggest surprises in 2007. As big free agency spenders they look to take the division for the first time since 1989.
The AFC North has been a wide-open race the last few years. Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC North.
1) Pittsburgh Steelers
07 Record: 10-6
Points Scored: 393(9th)
Points Allowed: 269 (2nd)
Playoff Result: Lost in Wildcard Round
2008 Strength of Schedule: 153-103 (.598) (1st in NFL)
Strengths: The Steelers were a great statistical team in 2007. They finished 2nd in points allowed, in large part due to the 27 points they gave up to Baltimore resting starters the last game of the season. Indy led the league with 262 points allowed. The Steelers did finish 1st in yards allowed. They were 3rd in rushing yards allowed and passing yards allowed. Mike Tomlin did a great job with this team in his first season as a NFL Head Coach.
On offense they also did well. Big Ben had only 3,154 yards passing, but recorded 32 touchdown passes. The reason for that is the Steelers threw a lot in the redzone. While the Steelers 2,168 rushing yards was 3rd in the NFL, their 9 rushing touchdowns were 22nd. With Willie Parker coming back from injury, the Steelers got a gift by having Rashard Mendenhall fall to the 23rd pick. The Steelers figure to have a formidable running attack for years to come. They should get more rushing touchdowns in 2008, so long as they can replace Alan Faneca. He is a 7-time Pro Bowler and 5-time first-team All Pro, 4 of which were between 2004 to last season. That is difficult to replace and even though the Jets overpaid for the 30 plus year old guard, the Steelers have some large shoes to fill.
They also got some receiver help. They weren’t bad there to begin with. Hines Ward is starting to drop in productivity, but is still a great blocker and team leader. He is consistently around the 1,000-yard mark with 7-10 touchdowns. Santonio Holmes is entering the magical 3rd year for wide receivers and looks to be on the verge of a breakout year. I expect him to solidify himself as the number one option. Limas Sweed is the tall receiver Big Ben wanted and should fit in well. He is a good endzone and 3rd down target. Heath Miller is a fantastic tight end.
The Steelers figure to be in the top 10 of the league in scoring in 2008 again. With the defense they have, that should mean another divisional title.
Weaknesses: Here is the million-dollar question. How does a team that finishes 1st in yards allowed, 2nd in points allowed, 9th in points scored, and throws the 6th fewest interceptions finish 10-6 and lose in the first round of the playoffs?
The problems were two-fold. The Steelers were a terrible road team. They were 7-2 at home, with their sole losses coming to Jacksonville in the regular season and playoffs. Losing to the same team twice at home was a Steeler first.
3-5 on the road is just not good enough. Furthermore those road wins were against Cleveland, Cincy, and St Louis. This team has to show better on the road against the good teams in the NFL.
The second problem was the team finished bad. After starting the season 9-3, they finished 1-4, including the playoff loss. I will give the Steelers a bit of a pass on the playoff loss, as not having Willie Parker was huge. The Steelers need play action to succeed in the passing game and that injury limited them. They also lost Aaron Smith, which hurt their run defense at the end of the season. Troy Polamalu, one of the best safeties in all of football played only 11 games last year. He missed 4 of the last 6 games in the regular season. They had some key players that were not right and were essential parts to their team.
Still injuries were not the only reason they fell short. What they need to do is get more sacks and more turnovers. The Steelers had only 11 interceptions, which was tied for last in the NFL. They are traditionally too good at pressuring the quarterback to finish that low.
Sacks were also part of their problem last year. Their 36 sacks ranked 13th in the NFL, but there wasn’t much separation between them and a team like Miami, which ranked 24th with 30.0. They need to get into the high 40s or low 50s in sacks to join the likes of the Giants (53) and Patriots (47). Increases in sacks and interceptions will help this team win more games on the road.
On offense, they need to give up fewer sacks. The Steelers tied for 7th most sacks allowed in the NFL with sacks allowed at 47. To put that in perspective the Colts and Patriots allowed a combined 44 sacks. Part of that is the offensive line. They need to pass block as well as they run block. Part of that is Big Ben. He has to get rid of the ball better and have better pocket presence.
The Steelers have to win with him being a bigger part of the offense. He has led a team to a Super Bowl, is just entering his prime, and that seems strange to say about a guy that threw 32 touchdown passes last year and made the Pro Bowl, but here is my point on that.
Big Ben threw almost 60% of his 32 touchdowns in 5 games. He totaled 19 touchdowns in wins at Cleveland, at Denver, Baltimore, Jacksonville, and at St Louis. The Steelers were just 3-2 in those games. That means in the other 11 games he had just 13 touchdown passes and the Steelers went 7-4 in those games.
In their 3 biggest blowouts he had 11 touchdown throws (at Cleveland, Baltimore, and at St Louis), but he attempted 23, 16, and 20 passes. His best games are when he throws the ball the least. The more he throws the ball, the worse the Steelers are. That is true of a lot of teams, but 30 passes is not that many passes in the NFL. It would be different if we were talking about when he throws 50 passes.
If the Steelers are going to improve on their 2007 campaign that have to be able to rely less on play action and rolling him out of the pocket. While that is a great dimension to have it should be icing on the cake, not be the focal point of the passing offense. He really needs to become better in the pocket if he is going to join the elite signal callers in the NFL.
Prediction: I really liked the Steelers draft and think they have an excellent chance to compete in the AFC. Their struggle is in the schedule, the most difficult in the NFL. They have a brutal stretch where they play Week 8) NY Giants, 9) at Washington, 10) Indy, 11) San Diego, 12) Cincy, 13) New England, 14) Dallas.
That is six 2007 playoff teams in seven weeks, which includes the two Super Bowl representatives and 3 of the 4 teams that earned first round byes. I was tempted to pick Cleveland, because they have Denver and Buffalo instead of San Diego and New England, but I resisted that temptation.
The Steelers have owned this division for a long time. They have a great defense, much better than Cleveland. The Steelers are 44-20 since 2004, which is the first year Big Ben joined the team. Other than the Super Bowl hangover season, which included a coach on the way out and Big Ben’s big motorcycle incident the Steelers have been the class of this division and won 10 games or more every other year.
Cleveland is probably going to make the playoffs this year, but they have to prove to me they can beat the Steelers before I pick them to overtake the Steelers. The Steelers don’t have a glaring weakness like the Browns pass defense. That said, Pittsburgh has an impossible schedule and will have to play better than they did last year if they want to repeat as division champs. I think they will do that.
Pittsburgh Steelers’ Record: 11-5 – AFC North Divisional Champion; AFC #4 Seed
2) Cleveland Browns
07 Record: 10-6
Points Scored: 402 (8th)
Points Allowed: 382 (21st)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 140-116 (.547) (7th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Browns had an offensive juggernaut in 2007. That said, it was anything but expected. They looked like the worst team in the league in their 34-7 opening day loss to the Steelers. They did nothing well and Crennel shipped his starter, Frye, out after the Week 1 debacle.
That was a puzzling move, but Anderson responded with 328 yards and 5 touchdowns against the Bengals the very next week. He finished with 3,787 yards and 29 touchdown passes. He appears safe as the starter, but has an anxious Brady Quinn waiting in the wings. If Anderson struggles early, the calls for Quinn will come quick and loud.
The Browns have great talent at the skill positions. Braylon Edwards finally settled into the role of star receiver with 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns. He had that magical 3rd year breakout season. Kellen Winslow, Jr also had 1,106 yards and 5 touchdowns. Both are young and coming into their own. They added Stallworth to the mix, which should really help the offense. He gives them a speed threat opposite of Edwards and should open up the middle of the field for Winslow, Jr. That puts Joe Jurevicius at his best position, which is a 3rd receiver.
Jamal Lewis rediscovered his legs and had 1,304 yards and 9 touchdowns. Keep in mind that 4 of those 9 touchdowns came against Seattle and 308 yards came in 2 games against Cincinnati. He needs to spread his production more evenly across the schedule. Jason Wright and Jerome Harrison played well in stretches last year and could contribute in a larger role this season.
Josh Cribbs is an excellent return threat and if it weren’t for Hester would be looking to claim the title as best return man in the NFL. The Browns finished 8th in points scored in 2007. With another year together they should be poised to do even more in 2008.
Weaknesses: The Browns had two weaknesses. First, and foremost was the defense. 21st in points allowed. 30th in yards allowed, 31st in 1st downs allowed, 24th in passing yards allowed, and 27th in rushing yards allowed. This was one of the worst units in the league and prevented them from doing bigger things in 2007.
Enter a free agent spending spree. They signed Shaun Rodgers and traded a 2nd round pick for Corey Williams. Davis, Jackson, McGinest, and Wimbley are solid linebackers. The front 7 should be improved with the addition of those two linemen. I expect them to stop the run better and put more pressure on the quarterback.
The problem is they didn’t address the secondary. Sean Jones is a good safety and had 5 picks last year. They lost Bodden in the Rogers trade and Holly was lost for the season in May with an injury. Terry Cousin is going to be called on to play big minutes and the Browns may have to go corner hunting on the waiver wire. They lack a shutdown corner. They didn’t have any draft picks to address the need with those picks belonging to Dallas (Quinn trade) and Green Bay (Williams trade).
That is not a good thing given the weapons the Steelers and Bengals have. They are going to need to score a lot of points, because their defense, while improved is still not among the strongest units in the NFL. The good thing is they are capable of doing that.
Prediction: I wanted to pick the Browns based on their slew of offensive weapons. I thought better of it and remembered that the defensive component does help. While the Steelers have a tougher schedule, they have the better team, which usually comes out on top. Also, keep in mind the Brown won 10 games with an easy schedule in 2007. This year figures to be more difficult this season.
Still, they are going to cause match up problems for teams with their speed at wide receiver and the points they can put up in bunches. They won with a bad defense last year and they should be even better on offense in 2008. There is no reason this team cannot win 10 games. If they can do that they should be back in the playoffs for the first time since 2002. It is much deserved for the Dawg Pound, which has been thirsting for a winner for a long time.
Cleveland Browns’ Record: 10-6 – AFC North 2nd Place; AFC #6 Seed
3) Cincinnati Bengals
07 Record: 7-9
Points Scored: 380 (11th)
Points Allowed: 385 (24th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 140-116 (.547) (7th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Bengals have a great passing attack. Palmer had his 2nd consecutive 4,000-yard season and had 26 touchdown passes. The only off part for him was his 20 interceptions. He is one of the best passers in the NFL, but has yet to be consistently surrounded with a good defense that can get the Bengals into the playoffs.
TJ Houshmandzadeh busted out for 112 catches and 12 touchdowns. Chad Johnson had 1,440 yards and 8 touchdowns. Those 2 players are as productive as any receiving duo in the NFL. They cause nightmares for defensive coordinators and are perfect compliments.
Kenny Watson and Rudi Johnson combined for 1,260 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. While the Bengals only ranked 24th in rushing yards those two gave them enough considering the potency of the passing attack. The problem is the Bengals were forced to throw out of necessity in a lot of games and not choice. Their defense gave up too many points for the backs to get enough carries.
Shayne Graham is one of the best kickers in the business. He is accurate, kicks for distance, and has been an elite level kicker for the last few seasons.
Weaknesses: This team’s main weakness was defense. Defensive guru Marvin Lewis has never been able to fix that since arriving in Cincy. In 2005 and 2006 they forced a high number of turnovers to offset their large number of points. Their high-flying offense could make up for that.
Last year the Bengals were 24th in points allowed, 27th in yards allowed, 21st in rushing yards allowed, and 26th in passing yards allowed. While they were still 6th in interceptions with 19, it wasn’t nearly enough to win games, given that they were turning the ball over a lot and not running the ball well.
They lost their best defensive lineman in Justin Smith. He signed with San Fran. They added Keith Rivers at linebacker in the draft. However, they had to add wide receivers in the 2nd and 3rd round in the event Ocho Cinco is a no show. That hurt them from upgrading the defense even more. It is still going to be exploited in 2008.
In past years Rudi Johnson was a threat. He was good for 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns. Last year he was hurt most of the year and the Bengals were too one dimensional on offense. That was a big reason for Palmer’s 20 interceptions. He threw 25 in 2005 and 2006 combined.
The biggest problem is this team’s attitude. This is the weakest team in terms of mental toughness in the NFL. That starts with the front office. They had a roster of players that should have starred in the Longest Yard. Chris Henry and Odell Thurman were released because of their constant brushes with the law. Both were talented players that did not live up to expectations off the field.
That did not discourage the Bengals from drafting Jason Shirley from Fresno State. Shirley's received a two-game suspension for conduct detrimental to the team in August. He was suspended for a 2nd time in October on su####ion of driving under the influence and hit-and-run. Shirley was reinstated on November 15, but two days later, he was dismissed from the school after he was cited for su####ion of driving with a suspended license and expired registration.
Most teams would have moved on to the next player on their Big Board. The Bengals were perfectly comfortable drafting someone with that record. As long as they continue to draft players of that character, they will continue to have these problems. Adding a 5th round problem child doesn’t ruin a team. But the fact that they even drafted him given the problems they have had shows the mentality of that front office. Character is not a priority in Cincy. Management is as much responsible for the problems they have had in recent years as the players who have not been able to stay out of trouble. You can’t keep ignoring character and not expect to have these problems.
Then there is Chad Johnson. I can understand his frustration and the Bengals should have traded him. However, his attempt to acquire a trade this offseason has been nothing short of a circus. He was quoted as saying this in a June 3rd, 2008 article by Dave Fleming for ESPN Magazine, "It's the reinvention of Ocho Cinco," he says. "I'm dead serious. People need to take me as I am because I just don't give a [expletive] anymore. That's how I'd sum up my attitude for the next season."
That’s fantastic coming from one of your offensive leaders and best players. He has transformed himself from a funny and enjoyable player to a TO type player in just a couple seasons. I like Chad Johnson, but he needs to get back to the old Chad Johnson before I am going to resume enjoying him. Also, TJ Houshmandzadeh is missing mini camps looking for a new contract.
There are enough good players here, but no one appears to be on the same page. Winning is secondary at this point in Cincinnati for both the players and front office.
Prediction: The schedule is too tough for the Bengals to be playing against themselves. Pittsburgh is still good and Cleveland is fast improving. The AFC South and NFC East had 6 playoff teams in 2006. There just aren’t a lot of winnable games.
The sad thing is that quarterback is one of the hardest positions to fill and the Bengals have a great talent there. They are wasting away the prime years of Carson Palmer’s career by not adding a defense and having their skill players bicker. I feel bad for him, because I think he is a good character guy. He deserves better. It is a shame he has to play in such chaos.
The Bengals will outscore some people and win games with their offense. However, turnovers, lack of a running game, lack of defense, lack of mental toughness, and lack of teamwork will be too much to overcome against a tough schedule. If they are not careful, they could fight there way to the bottom and finish in last place in the AFC North.
Cincinnati Bengals’ Record: 5-11 – AFC North 3rd Place; No Playoffs
4) Baltimore Ravens
07 Record: 5-11
Points Scored: 334 (18th)
Points Allowed: 310 (11th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule: 141-115 (.551) (4th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: It is really hard to say anything good about the Baltimore Ravens 2007 season. They were coming off a 13-3 season and had acquired Willis McGahee. They were expected by many to compete with the top AFC teams for a possible Super Bowl birth. The Ravens started 4-2, before losing 9 straight games, bottoming out by losing to the winless Dolphins in Week 15. They beat the Steelers on the last day of the season to salvage a 5-11 campaign. The result was the end of the Brian Billick era and the hiring of John Harbaugh.
The strength of the Ravens starts with their defense. It has been that way since Ray Lewis arrived in 1996. Since 1999 the Ravens have finished in the top 10 in scoring defense 6 times and in the top 10 in yards allowed every year other than 2002. The Ravens were impossible to run the ball against last year. They were 2nd in rushing yards allowed, 1st in yards per rushing attempt, and 7th in rushing touchdowns allowed.
The Ravens still have a great front 7. Ngata was a great pick at defensive tackle in the 2006 draft. Terrell Suggs is still a great pass rusher and will be 26 in October. He had a down year with 5.0 sacks after consistently being in the 8-12 range. He must rebound. The million-dollar question is how much does Ray Lewis have left in the tank. The 9-time Pro Bowler and eventual first ballot Hall of Famer turns 33 years old this season. He hasn’t had 100 solo tackles since 2004, something he did 6 of the 8 seasons prior to 2004. He must stay healthy for the Ravens to have their defense at its best.
The secondary is great when healthy. Ed Reed is still the best safety in the business. McAllister and Rolle are both over 30 years old and were injured last season. That was a main reason why the Ravens finished 20th in passing yards allowed and 26th in passing touchdowns allowed. Fabian Washington and Frank Walker were brought in to address secondary depth. They should stop the pass better in 2008.
On offense, the Ravens were able to run the ball behind Pro Bowler Willis McGahee. He had 1207 yards and 7 touchdowns. That was a great season given the cast around him. Ray Rice was a nice addition to back him up in the 2nd round.
Other than McGahee, the Ravens had little to nothing on offense. They have a very anemic passing offense, evidenced by the 23rd ranking in passing yards and 28th ranking in passing touchdowns. The Ravens highest single game point total was 30 points in 2008 and they scored under 20 points 8 times. Matt Stover is a great kicker, but was all too many times the Ravens best offensive weapon.
Weaknesses: Here is how bad the Ravens quarterback situation has been in the Ray Lewis era. Last year, Kyle Boller became the all-time Raven passing yardage leader with 7,846 yards, surpassing Vinny Testeverde, who threw for 7,148 yards in 29 games in 1996 and 1997. It took Boller 53 games and 42 starts to accumulate his passing yards. It took the Ravens 10 seasons to find a quarterback with enough staying power to surpass 7,148 yards.
The Ravens have never been able to throw the ball. In 2008 they have 3 choices. Kyle Boller, who is the franchise’s all time passing yards leader and a certifiable bust. Joe Flacco is another choice. He is a rookie who played his college ball at the University of Delaware. The third option is Troy Smith, who is in his second year. He is a great leader and intangible guy who must prove to the Ravens he possesses NFL skills. It is not exactly an all-star group.
Todd Heap is a good tight end that was injured last year. He should rebound to give the Ravens a solid target in the middle of the field. Derrick Mason was solid as usual with 103 catches for 1087 yards and 5 receiving touchdowns. The only question with him is age, as he is 34 years old. Mark Clayton looked to be poised for a breakout year in 2007. He regressed to 48 catches, 531 yards, and 0 touchdowns.
The offensive line is going to be in a state of flux if Jonathan Ogden follows through on his retirement talk. He has reportedly told the Ravens not to expect him back. He is an 11-time Pro Bowler, 9-time All-Pro, and eventual first ballot Hall of Famer. It is hard to replace guys like him. Losing him is going to hurt this offense in terms of run production and protecting a young quarterback.
The Ravens didn’t have a lot of salary cap room to improve. They are going to have to improve from within to improve on their poor offensive showing from 2007.
Prediction: This is not the worst team in the league in terms of talent. It is a very solid defense with a below average offense. That should still win some games. However, it is has a horrible schedule. They play the following scoring defenses in 08: Colts (1), Steelers twice (2), Titans (8th), Eagles (9th), Jaguars (10th) Redskins (11th), Cowboys (13th). That doesn’t include the defending champion NY Giants, Cleveland who is vastly improved, and Cincinnati, who went 2-0 against the Ravens in 2007.
I think that while there are some nice young players on defense, but a few of the core players are starting to get up there in age. Ray Lewis has to play lights out if this defense is going play at a high enough level for the team to compete. They are going to be playing either a bad quarterback or an inexperienced quarterback, neither of which is a good thing. They have some nice pieces on offense, but nothing that will keep defensive coordinators up at night. McGahee can’t run effectively against 8 people in the box, and Heap needs receivers to stretch the field and give him room in the middle. Mason is a solid threat, but doesn’t stretch the field. Ogden retiring would be a terrible blow to the offensive line.
The schedule is impossible and I look for 4 wins out of the Ravens. They will play teams tough and keep the score down, but I think the offense is just too weak. The good news is they had a good draft in 08 and if Flacco or Smith is the real deal at QB they could put easily together a playoff contender in 2009 with another good draft, some free agent signings, and an easier schedule.
Baltimore Ravens’ Record: 4-12 – AFC North 4th Place; No Playoffs
That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008. I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July. I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008. Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews. You have made writing these a lot of fun.
As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.
Glad to see somebody isn't buying the ridiclous Browns hype. To quote Ric Flair, to be the man, you have to beat the man, and the Browns haven't done that since 2003. I think the line will be better, as Justin Hartwig, a signing that is on nobody's radar will stabilize at center, allowing Mahan to either movie over, or back up. The Steelers do have to get more sacks, that has been a glaring weakness. LaMarr Woodley came on late last year, and is ready to start. Like the picks they made, especially Limas Sweed. Schedule from the outlook looks tough, but its like they can't handle it.
Thesupposedbuckles - Thanks for the post. I went back and forth on it, but the key for me is that there isn't a big enough difference between the offenses to warrant picking Cleveland ahead of Pittsburgh when you examine the glaring advantage the Steelers have on defense.
Pittsburgh does have a tougher road with games against NE and SD, but they are a good team in their own rite. I can't see them going 1-6 against that tough stretch. They will win some and lose some.
The key is having a good record against the division, something they should be able to do. 5-1 against the AFC North seems very obtainable and should propel them to another AFC North crown.
I wouldn't go so far as to say ridiculous Browns hype, that makes it sound as if they didn't do well last year. However, I do agree that it is Pittsburgh's division to lose and that their trip to the postseason and the division crown is dependent on their ability to navigate that schedule.
The Browns will be right on their heels as you predict and I think that Cincy and Baltimore will be at the bottom, but they are pretty tough bottom feeders when you look at some of the other divisions (i.e. AFC East, NFC South).
JeffGolblum - Thanks for the post. I don't think they are over hyped by any means, evidenced by my #6 seed prediction.
I agree that calling Cleveland overhyped was a little strong by buckles, but I think he is a frustrated that many people are going to take the Browns, because they made the biggest splash in free agency.
I don't know I really see Cinci coming out of this mess of an offseason more motivated. Steelers do always seem to be in the mix, but I will take a pass on em for the year. To me the wild card in this equation is the Browns I can see them winning 11 and I could also see them winning 5. Every team in this division is capable of sweeping the two games against any other squad in this division, honestly this is the hardest division to pick.
Stopbeingdumb - Thanks for the comments. I agree with you on Cincy . What a mess that is. I feel sorry for Bengals fans that have to endure that.
For me the AFC South was harder to pick. I had this down between Cleveland and Pittsburgh, and while I thought about Cleveland, I didn't for too long. Tampa, New Orleans, and Carolina could all win th NFC South and makes that tougher to pick in my opinion.
Last edited by StreetCred on June 4th at 12:28 PM.
Well, I'll take your predictions, StreetCred and see you in the playoffs.
I think Baltimore will find something at QB and end up 7-9, with Cincy at 6-10. I know corners are a ?, but they have too much talent on defense to only win 4 games. They can beat the Redskins or the Eagles, especially at home. They will steal one on Cleveland and beat Cincy once and always play the Steelers tough at the Crabcake. They can also beat the Texans, Dolphins and Raiders.
Anyway, great analysis as usual man! 9 weeks away from the HOF game.
Moseby - Thanks for the post. I know, I can't wait for football to get here.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Ravens won more than 4 games, I just think they have a very difficult draw and Lewis, McAllister, and Rolle are all over 30. They need to stay healthy this year.
Ravens were a 5 win team in 07 and their first round pick on a quarterback, which never pays immediate dividends. I would expect them to struggle to win games as I think their window has closed and they are in a full blown rebuilding effort.
I think mosby was right, I look for Sincy to finish last under the Ravens. I never bought into the Browns, they had an easy Schedule last year, so this year we will see what they are really made of. I still do ot understand why Pitt has to travel to Foxborough again this year, that is the one glaring issue with the strength of schedule. Should have been a home game for Pitt, but would have made one more game for the Pats easier still. Good in depth article!
NetSteeler - Thanks for the post and nice to hear from you again. My thinking went two ways. I picked Cincy to finish higher based on their 2-0 record against the Ravens last season. Second, it is a quarterback's league and Cincy has one of the best in the business. That doesn't mean he can win a lot of games win a poor running game and no defense, but I think they win slightly more than the Ravens.
I have the Bengals at 5 wins and the Ravens at 4, so it isn't like I have the Bengals running away from the Ravens. In my opinion they are both bad teams that will get burried by the schedule.
On to the Browns. I think people need to give the Browns more credit. I can see where Steeler fans are chippy that people would pick them to with the North, but they won as many games as the Steelers did in 07 (10 games) with a below average defense and with young players that are getting better.
Schedule was easy, but I think the Browns have great talent and will show well in 08.
Sorry I was sick so I never noticed the article.
Ok time for fun.
Pit: They bothered me alot last year. The fact that they almost lost that division was concerning. On the road they sucked ####. They lost to Arizona(understandable to a degree with Wisenhunt as coach), and the Jets (No excuse). I know the field was #### during the game on Miami but they needed a last minute field goal to beat them. I felt with Tomlin they got too full with themselves. We'll see this year. As usual the Steelers had a great running offense and total defense. It's interesting how the play calling wasn't that much different to Cowher's except with the passing in the red zone more often. Let's hope the O-Line can improve especially with Faneca leaving. The front 7 weren't bad at pressuring the QB so no need to be harsh there. Big Ben needs to improve some like you said. I know this guy can be an elite and probably a legend with the way he sometimes plays. The fact his teams mostly lose when he throws 30 or more passes tells me he can't handle the pressure of leading the team sometimes. People may point to the fact he is the Steeler's best QB since Bradshaw especially since he threw for a franchise record of TD passes in a season ever. I know this guy can be one of the best QBs ever if he improves but people forget that Bradshaw, while a awesome SB QB a legend, sucked in the regular season. That and the fact tells me the Steelers have had #### QBs for the last 20 years.
Cle: Offense was especially nice especially after week 1 when I thought I would have heard Quinn chants. Thank you Derek Anderson for doing great it shut up the Quinn chants for now in Cleveland. Sadly you got certain douches in Miami still wishing they got Quinn. I laughed my #### off when he fell to 22. I had him in the 2nd round going actually with everyone yelling at me saying he's going top 10. I was wrong with 2nd round but I was right when I said that teams had thought he was overrated. Heck even now he overrated. Hell the guy is doing commercials endorsing #### while Anderson, the starting QB, hasn't done any that I know of. Welcome back Jamal Lewis. I was actually most happy for the way he was playing. I don't know how Stallworth would be since he wasn't used much in NE but I think he will have more production in CLE.
The defense was bad but let's see with a new coordinator how it does. With trades and free agency they tried to improve it so the team will be improved. But yeah for this team to be taken seriously the secondary HAS to improve.
Cin: Hmm. Carson Palmer. As a player he is good but as a leader not so much. Sure you bring up the fact of the rejects causing trouble but as a leader he needs to stand up and tell the ####s to shut the #### up and play ball. You make him sound like a victim but he played worse last year compared to the previous year when he was still recovering from the knee injury. 28 to 26 TDs while throwing more but jumped 60% in the INT area.
Here is how he played. He went from 5.4 TD % to 4.5. Int % went from 2.5 to 3.5. He went from 7.8 YPA to 7.2 YPA. He needs to improve and be around how he played in 2005 for this team to be better. Maybe the rushing attack will improve this but we will see.
Defense stinks no surprise. Funny how Marvin, as a defensive coordinator, hasn't improved it. Reminds me of the opposite of Brian Billick. Even though I said that Palmer needs to step up as a leader to make the team stop acting like fools, I agree that front office needs to improve. Everyone talks about the trouble Bengals have had off the field messing up the team inside and out. How come Dallas or the Patriots, teams known to bring questionable people, haven't had the same problem of messing up the chemistry of the team? It's starts with the office. They show that if teams want to keep them under a degree of control, they improve themselves first. Cincy doesn't a good front office so of course no one is going to take them seriously. And also acting tough also means acting smart. While it was understandable with releasing Henry, it still doesn't make sense with me for releasing Thurman. There seems to be a disease that makes top playmaking WRs, total jackasses the more they stay in the NFL.
Balt: I can't explain what happened. They started well then collapsed. This defense has been phenomenal for years hitting it's peak during the SB win, breaking a modern record of points allowed. It must be frustrating for the defense to see the offense suck every year. McGahee did well running but again the passing offense sucked. McNair was injured last year, with him retiring now. Boller is a bust, no surprise since he was only picked by his so called cannon arm. Troy Smith showed some hope last year. I don't like that they drafted Flacco. It seems they did the same mistake as Boller and listening to the media "hacks" that Smith can't be a QB in the NFL. Funny Grossman got a chance but Smith shouldn't. Todd Heap should improve. Clayton needs to improve especially when people don't know how much does Mason still have in his tank. Ogden leaving will hurt them badly. If the passing offense improves alot then this team has a chance of making the playoffs.
Not bad. Thats a pretty fair description of the division from a Packer fan.
A few things people have to remember about the Steelers season is...
1)Ben threw for 32TD's and only 11 pics DESPITE being #2 on the most sacked list.Faneca was one of the few healthy people that played on that line.As much as I liked Faneca, he is past his prime. Not paying him an outragous contract on the downside of his career will payoff big time down the road.
2)There were injuries on the O-line and people were playing out of position. In particular Mahan. Willie went down and Najeh's performance will probably cause his exit...stage left.
3)Ben scrambles very well for a big man however, the multitudes of sacks he endured during the season took their toll and he played the last few games hobbled with an injured foot. I saw him try to scramble around the end during a game and a blob with two legs caught him and brought down lol
Barring injuries the O-line will better this year and an already potent offense should end up being ranked in the top four or five.Having Hines Ward,Santonio Holmes,Heath Miller and now Limas Sweed, to go along with the running game should help Ben tremendously.
One of the things that aren't talked about is the problems the Steelers have had on special teams. Coach Tomlin was very proactive signing proven special teams players and making that unit a priority.
The pass rush should be bolstered with Woodley starting as well as a healthy Timmons and the addition of a certain rush end from USC.
In summary, I don't think the Steelers are
Last edited by sixfigurefan2 on June 5th at 8:22 PM.
quite ready to compete with the Pats,Colts or Chargers however, I think they have improved enough to win a first round game and compete with the big boys.
Last edited by sixfigurefan2 on June 5th at 8:22 PM.
Dehbashi - Thanks for the comments. Hope you are feeling better. Couple things on the QBs. You have to remember Big Ben has only played 4 seasons in the NFL. He is sill growing. I think some of the sack problems are from switching from The Chin and the Bus to the spread formations Tomlin uses. Over time I expect them to get a better pass blocking offensive line. If Big Ben can make quicker decisions with the ball, that would help too.
Quinn - I still think he is going to be a good player and I do think Miami missed out on him. He hasn't played enough and the jury is still out. Anderson has to prove he is not a one year wonder.
Palmer - I don't know what you want him to do. He said TJ and Johnson should be in camp. He said the coaching staff needed changes. His defense has finished as follows his 4 years in the league. Scoring Defense is first and Yards allowed is second. 04(21,19), 05(22, 28), 06(17, 30) and 07 (24, 27). His front office brings in the type of people that Longest Yard is based on. It sucks to be him right now and fighting with his only asset (CJ and TJ) is going to completely isolate him. He needs a new team.
Ravens: The only thing I have to say about that QB situation is terrible. Hopefully for them Flacco or Smith will develop and be ready in a couple years. I like Flacco's upside, but not to dominate as a rookie.
Sixfigurefan - Thank you for the post. Doesn't sound like u have had joyous encounters with Packer fans, lol. I agree with everything you said about the Steelers. The only thing I don't agree with is you said they are not quite ready to compete with the Pats, Colts, or Chargers. I think you have to put the Jags on there as well.
They beat you guys twice, both times in your building and in the cold. They were an extremely hot team last year. They are my pick to finish with the #1 seed. I think you sold them short by not putting them in the upper class of the AFC. Otherwise, I thought your comments were right on.
Big Ben - I'm no way criticizing him. I know he is good. I do see how the O-Line blocking Schemes with Cowher to Tomlin may mess up the passing game. If that line get a bit better then we may see this guy go through the roof. We'll see.
Quinn: I still feel he was lucky Weis put in a pro type offense against college teams who are used to playing against college offenses. Sure people may point how the O sucked in Norte Dame this year but there are 2 things to consider.
1) QB that year was a freshman.
2) Teams are used to ND doing that kind of offense.
We'll see if Anderson will be a one year wonder. He is only going to be in his fourth year. Remember that.
Palmer: I actually don't pay attention to the Bengals so I don't really know what Palmer says. I only remember him critizing players due to their off the field incidents. I already know the defense has stunk for years. That's why for the Lewis joke. Every teams brings in people from the Longest Yard. They just usually know how to handle them better. Anyway, I'm guessing you think with a new team he can become a SB legend like Jim Plunkett. That's fine.
Balt: Yeah QB situation isn't great. Looks similar to GB's actually except for Boller v. Rodgers. Backups have little experience. Starting QBs possible busts. Before you get mad, I'm saying this because I believe with how things have turned out the previous two seasons that Rodgers may be injury prone. We'll see this year how durable he could be.
Street - Excellent breakdown! You're the best on FOX at this type of analysis. I've felt you should be spotlighted on NFL's front page. Anyway - hard to argue with anything here and thanks for the insight!
I actually haven't had any bad experiences with packer fans. lol I have had "interesting" discussions with Browns and Seahawk fans though. Go figure.
What I meant is, thats pretty good feedback from not only a fan of another team, but someone who supports the NFC versus the AFC.If you read the blogs, most of the AFC/NFC fans are on completely different ground opinion wise. I guess I could have worded that better. lol
Oh I haven't dismissed the Jags.They are a very good team. I actually look at how close those games were that they played against the Steelers and came to that conclusion.The games could have went either way. On the other hand, after a close first half, the Pats HAMMERED my Steelers.That is the only reason I didn't put the Jags in the Pats,Colts and Chargers class.
This should be a very interesting year in the AFC.
sixfigure - StreetCred does weekly previews and reviews during the season and is, in my opinion, the most informed NFL blogger on this site. He gives out a lot of statistical data to back up his statements and I enjoy comparing that vs. what I viewed during watching the games.
Actually what got me interested in FoxSports blogging was StreetCred. At times, we may have different opinions on issues but when it comes down to it, it is just friendly opinions. I can actually talk to him with facts without either of us killing each other. Sixfigure, you should read him more often.
Moseby, MidnighteCowboy, & Dehbasi - Thanks for the compliments. I really appreciate your guys support. It is great to have interesting opinions on my blog as well. It wouldn't be even close to as much fun to do this without you guys.
Sixfigurefan2 - Thanks for the post. I was just giving you a hard time. I root for my team as hard as any fan, but I always try to be honest about what is going on.
Those two games were very close last year. I am interested to see what happens in the AFC this year. I think that any of the top 5 teams could emerge as the Super Bowl representative this year. Hope to see you on here more.
It is a shame that the NFC doesn't have that as well. While I think the NFC has gained ground in the last few years, they don't have the vast amount of heavyweights at the top of the conference. Should be a very good year.
Dehbashi - I agree with you on Rodgers. I think people are going to be a bit surprised when I do my Packer prediction in a week. That is a very fair criticism of him. He was hurt way too much as a backup to not deserve that scrutiny now that he is the starter.
With regards to Palmer, to be honest with you they were quickly becoming my 2nd favorite team to watch when they went 11-5 in 2005. Chad Johnson was fun. The offense could put up points fast. The defense forced a lot of turnovers. It was a fun team to watch.
That hasn't been the case since 2005 and I think Palmer is still a fantastic QB. I think a team could build around him and win a Super Bowl. I could see him winning a Super Bowl in Cincy if it weren't for his coach and front office.
StreetCred Are you getting paid for this? I didnt think so. You need to shut the hell up cause you dont know what the hell you are talking about. Are you crasy the Raven will go 4-12 you are real sick for even thinking that. First of our corners were injured last year and we had no back up corners that is what hurt our season. We have already gone out and address that issue. So even if Rolle or McAllister gets hurts we have Fabian Washington and Frank Walker to fill in. We still have a great front seven. The reason Suggs number of sacks was down was becuase we had sorry back up corners who could stop a past if the other teams QB threw it right to them, but with the corners we have now look for Suggs to have a probowl year. As far as our Offence who care we have never hand an offence even in 2007 mcnair wasnt so great our offensive numbers was horrible but we had 13wins and 3 loses. So if they just let Troy start all he has to do is not kyle boller it and give the other team point. I feel we have way to much talent to only win 4 games. Oh and then to be last in AFC North not about to happen aagain its funny how the browns have one good season and now everybody thank they can take the afc north they had 1 good season out of the last decade and now they are a top team i dont think so .
This is how the afc north will look.
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6
Baltimore Ravens 9-7
Cleveland Browns 7-9
Cincinnati Bengals 5-11 only becuase the diffence still stanks and becuase of there off season troubles.
are you crazy streetcred? ravens struggled last because the starting corners were injured..they have too much talent to only win 4 games....all they have to do is not turn the ball over and there in everygame...you saw what happened when the pats played them with their starting corners starting the game...ravens are going to be ok...top 5 deffence in the nfl as long as ray ray and ed reed are there......everytime when ppl overlook the ravens they always find a way.....
Bungholes - Thanks for the post. I was wondering if there were any Ravens fans still alive out there. I get this from the fans of every team I pick for last place. I'm glad you posted what you thought their record would be.
Fine, you think they win 9 games. I want you to go through the schedule and tell me the 9 games they are going to win. Not the 9 games you hope they will win or the 9 games that if the other team has a major injury or becomes ill the night before that they beat. Give me the 9 games on their schedule that you think the Ravens are better than at this moment and we will continue this discussion when you post that.
Last edited by StreetCred on June 13th at 6:38 AM.
Week Team
1 Bengals we could win both games agaisnt the Bengals but i am just going to say the home game
2 Texans
3 Browns
5 Titans
7 Dolphins
8 Raiders
12 Eagles
14 Redskins
15 Steelers
KayofBMore2 - Thanks for posting. Here is what I think about the games you picked.
Bengals - I agree. 1-1 is fair. Keep in mind the Bengals are 6-2 against the Ravens since 2004, so it isn't out of the question that the Bengals pull the sweep.
Texans - Tough call, but it wouldn't shock me.
Browns - No way. Browns swept the Ravens last year and have a better team this season. Could happen, but would be crazy to predict that.
Titans - Disagree. I don't see how the Ravens even score a touchdown in that game.
Dolphins - Dolphins beat them last year in OT, but Ravens should win it this year.
Raiders - I agree, although Raiders should be improved.
Eagles - No. Eagles have too good of a defense and Westbrook and McNabb can put up enough points.
Redskins - Might happen, but probably not.
Steelers - No way. The only reason the Ravens won a game last year was the Steelers had nothing to play for in Week 17. Not predicting that.
So we have two wins I agree with, 2 that I give a maybe to, and 1 a slight maybe. That's 4-5 games. I really think you are dreaming if you think the Ravens are going to beat Pitt, Cle, Philly, and Tenn. I also think Washington will be a tough win. However, that is why they play the games. Good luck.
Last edited by StreetCred on June 17th at 12:56 PM.
streetcred-
Are you serious the browns had an easy schedule last year becuase they sucked the year before. They have a much harder schedule and lets not forget we still have the same team from 2006 who went 13-3 - a broke Mcnair who sucked in 2006 even though we won 13 games it was the Defence doing most the work. we have a better defence now and our offence is not going to be as bad as every body think. As of us beating Pitt and Wash we always play those teams tough and as for not scoring agaisnt TN are you serious what about them scoring on us. As of Philly first they need to hope and Pray that Mcnabb even make it to week 12 and if he does we going to make sure he dont finish the season so you need to re think what you wrote. The Ravens are doing big things believe that. Oh and if Troy run the offence thats a double threat QB as for him being too small they told the same thing to Drew Brees and you see what he is doing
It's just creds opinion of how things can possibly go in a competitive division. Nothing more, nothing less.
I will give you this, they Ravens might go 7-9 or 8-8. I have to admit, I think they knew something about Flacco. He has done nothing but work his #$%$# off in camp and it looks like he is determined to at least compete for the starting job right away.
i think everybody is cutting the bengals short,they will rebound from underacheiving the last couple seasons,and in my opion they have the best qb in the north. i think they will win the north as well
I live in Chicago, but am originally from Wisconsin. I am a disgruntled Green Bay Packer fan that now loves the Jets. My favorite sports are Football, Basketball, and Baseball. Hockey and soccer are at the bottom of my list. I would rather watch the Spelling Bee than either of those sports. My favorite athletes of all time are Brett Favre and Michael Jordan. While I like debating many sports, NFL Football is by far my favorite topic to discuss.
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