Sorry I was a little late with this posting. The Memorial Day Weekend Holiday set me
a bit behind. This is my fourth of
eight NFL division previews. While
there are still a couple months until training camps, most of the rosters are
complete. There could be a few
minor changes after some June 1st cuts. There could be some injuries prior to the opening of
training camp. However, this is
how I see things playing out after the free agency period and the draft. My plan is to focus on one division
every Wednesday until I complete the 8 divisions in the NFL. Here are the links to the other divisions that have already been completed.
The NFC South was arguably the weakest division in the NFL
in 2007. Tampa Bay was the only
divisional winner in 2007 not to win 10 games. Tampa Bay fans will point to the fact that they sat a lot of
starters the last two weeks that resulted in their 9- 7 record. Still the Buccaneers were 5-1 in the
division and 4-6 outside of it.
The Panthers and Saints were 3-3 against the division and 4-6 outside of
it. The Falcons were 3-7 outside
the division. This is a division
that really struggled to win games against teams in other divisions. No team is vastly superior to the
other, with the exception of Atlanta.
Even they could potentially finish out of the cellar if Ryan plays well
as a rookie and things bounce their way.
It is difficult to argue that this is anything other than a wide-open
race in 2008.
Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the NFC South.
1) New
Orleans Saints
07
Record: 7-9
Points
Scored: 379 (12th)
Points
Allowed: 388 (25th)
Playoff
Result: No Playoffs
2008
Strength of Schedule: 115-141
(.449) (27th (t) in NFL)
Strengths:
The Saints have a terrific passing offense. The Saints ranked 3rd in passing yards as Drew
Brees had 4,423 yards passing. The
problem is that he had a 1 touchdown, 11 picks, and a 52.7 QB rating in his first 4 games. The Saints dug a 0-4 hole for themselves. In his last 12 games he had 28
touchdown passes, 7 interceptions, and a 103.1 QB rating. The problem is you don’t get to
mulligan the first 4 games of the season.
Despite going 7-3 in their next 10 games they lost their last 2 games to close the season and missed the playoffs.
The problem is they were so
inconsistent during the season.
They beat Jacksonville 41-24 and followed that up with a 37-29 loss to
the Rams where they were routed for the first 3 quarters. This team has to work on their
consistency. They can’t go in the
tank for 4 games, win 4 in a row, and then lose to teams like the Rams. They have to bring it every Sunday.
There are a lot of good weapons in
place. Brees is one of the top
quarterbacks in the NFL. Colston
is entering his 3rd season and looks primed to have a season similar
to what Braylon Edwards did in 2007.
Reggie Bush still has his faults, but when used properly is an explosive
weapon. The Saints used him in too
many reverses last season and gadget plays. They need to get back to the way they used him in 2006, which was as a spark plug, not the featured player in the offense. The injury to McAllister hurt them with
that, but they were struggling to get Bush going while both were in the
lineup. Stecker had a solid end to
the season and gives them more weapons.
Henderson, Meacham, and Johnson are all quality targets. The Saints have a stockpile of
offensive weapons.
The Saints can put up points in
bunches. If they can cut down on
their turnovers and play with more consistency, they will score even more
points and should win more games than in 2007.
Weaknesses: The Saints were the only team to
attempt more than 600 passes in 2007 with 652. They ran the ball only 392 times, which ranked 7th
worst in the league. That means
they passed the ball 62.5 percent of the time and ran the ball only 37.5
percent of the time. The result
was a rushing attack that ranked 28th in the NFL and a scoring
offense that ranked 12th.
With the problems this team had on defense, they weren’t able to
overcome that hurdle.
For as good of a play caller as
Payton was in 2006 he was equally bad in 2007, especially in the first 4 games of the season. The Saints have to find ways to run the ball, cut down on
turnovers, and pass the ball down the field. They threw the ball way too much to Bush and not enough to
the receivers down the field. If
the defense stacks the line of scrimmage, you can’t throw the ball to Bush and
expect him to run through and by everyone. He has not yet shown that type of ability.
The Saints concentrated on
improving their defense this off-season.
They traded for Jonathan Vilma. He is much more suited as the middle linebacker in a 4-3. The Jets going to a 3-4 really hurt his production. If he can return to his 2004 and 2005 form that will help the Saints
defense considerably. They drafted
Ellis in the first round out of USC to improve their defensive tackle
position. They added Bobby
McCray. Those two should help the
Saints improve on a rush defense that ranked a respectable 13th in the NFL. It should also improve the pass rush. McCray will also give them insurance
should Charles Grant have to miss time with his legal problems. He has been indicted by a Georgia grand
jury with involuntary manslaughter.
They also improved their
secondary. Randall #### is an
upgrade. They also drafted Tracy
Porter in the second round from Indiana.
The Saints are hoping that with a couple additional pass rushers and a
few more defensive backs they can improve on their 30th ranked
defense. The Saints secondary is by no means perfect, but should not give up quite as many big plays as they did in 2007.
Prediction: I am still bitter at the New Orleans
Saints for their 2007 season. It
isn’t that I’m a Saints fan. My
preseason prediction in 2007 was for the New England Patriots to beat the New
Orleans Saints in the Super Bowl.
The fact that they didn’t even qualify for the playoffs was annoying to
say the least.
The most troubling thing was that
they missed the playoffs because of poor play and inconsistency. It wasn’t as if Brees was lost for the
season early and altered the dynamic of their season. They couldn’t run the ball and they couldn’t stop the
pass. That keeps other offenses on
the field to exploit the Saints weakness and the result was blowouts to good
teams and a lot of losses to bad teams that were unexplainable.
I think they have improved this
defense. I’m not saying it will be
confused with the 2000 Ravens, but I think that Vilma, Ellis, McCray, ####, and
Porter should help.
I also think Payton is a good coach that had a bad year. He will reevaluate his play calling and try to go down
the field more this season.
The schedule looks good for
them. It is one of the easier ones
in the NFL. The AFC West is going
through a transition and the NFC North has some winnable games. Washington and San Fran are winnable
games as well. They aren't in a AFC South type of division, so they should be okay there.
I went back and forth on whether to
pick the Saints to win the NFC South for a second straight year. After much debate, I finally decided to
give them another try. That
doesn’t mean I think they are a Super Bowl team, but I do think that if they
play to their talents, they have the best shot to win the NFC South.
New
Orleans’ Record: 10-6 – NFC South Divisional Champion; NFC #3 Seed
2) Tampa
Bay Buccaneers
07
Record: 9-7
Points
Scored: 334 (18th)
Points
Allowed: 270 (3rd)
Playoff
Result: Lost in the NFC Wildcard Round
2008
Strength of Schedule: 120-136 (.469) (20th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Buccaneers had one of the best
defenses in the NFL in 2007. The
Bucs finished first in the NFL in pass defense, allowing just 170.5 yards per
game. They finished third in
points allowed with 16.9. There
only real weakness on defense was stopping the run, which ranked 17th.
They didn’t do well on defense by
putting a lot of pressure on the QB.
Their 33 sacks ranked tied for 16th in the NFL. They didn’t pick a lot of passes. Their 16 passes ranked tied for 17th
in the NFL. Their completion
percentage allowed of 60.6 ranked only 15th in the NFL. So how did this pass defense rank
number 1 over the NY Giants, San Diego Chargers, and New England Patriots who
all ranked much higher in sacks and turnovers?
The explanation is two-fold. 1) It helped that they did not play
most of the top passing offenses.
They drew Tennessee and Jacksonville with Garrard injured. They drew Atlanta and Carolina
twice without Delhomme. They played the NFC West
49ers and Rams. Washington had
passing issues. The best passing
offenses they played in 2007 were Arizona, Detroit, Indy, Houston, New Orleans
twice, and Seattle. Only Indy and
Seattle made the playoffs, which Tampa Bay was blown out by in both games.
The second reason is that they were
good at controlling the clock and playing field position. They ranked 11th in both
rushing yards and rushing attempts.
They tied for first in the NFL with interceptions thrown, tossing just
8. Jeff Garcia had only 4
interceptions on the season, 3 of them coming in the Jacksonville game. That
combination resulted in an offense that did not put the Bucs defense in bad
position on he field. Even though
the Bucs didn’t force turnovers and sacks, the opposing offense had to go the
distance.
That isn’t to say that the Bucs
defense doesn’t have talent.
Derrick Brooks is still a great linebacker. Gaines Adams had 6 sacks in his rookie season and should look
to approach double-digit sacks in 2008.
Ronde Barber is still a very respected cornerback. There are a lot of quality players on that defense.
The problem for the Bucs is that
Brooks is 35 and Barber is 33. Those are two of their best players. The
Bucs have done a good job of adding defensive talent. They drafted Aqib Talib to add youth to the secondary and
replace Brian Kelly who left for Detroit in free agency. The Bucs must continue to get younger on defense as
the last remaining pieces to their 2002 Super Bowl team are reaching the
twilight of their brilliant careers.
Weaknesses: The offense was not very explosive in
2007. The Bucs were 20th
in points scored with 20.9. They
were 18th in yards, 16th in passing yards, and 11th
in rushing yards. If Tampa Bay
wants to take the next step, they have to do better on offense.
Jeff Garcia did make the Pro
Bowl as an injury replacement. He is 38. The Bucs do not have a shortage of
quarterbacks behind him. Simms,
Griese, Gradkowski, and even the retired Jake Plummer are all property of Tampa
Bay and with the exception of Plummer ready to play on a minutes notice. Galloway had his third straight 1,000-yard season in Tampa
Bay, but turns 37 years old in November.
Earnest Graham filled in well for the injured Cadillac Williams and had
898 rushing yards to go with his 10 rushing touchdowns. Warrick Dunn should do well in Gruden’s
offense as a pass catcher, but he too is 33 years old.
There just isn’t a lot after
that. Williams has been injured
and disappointing since a strong rookie campaign in 2005. Ike Hilliard had 722 yards and 1
touchdown in 2007 as the number 2 receiver. Michael Clayton has fewer yards (1029) in his last 3 seasons
than he did in his rookie season of 2004 with 1,193. He has been beyond disappointing. They just don’t have a lot of weapons after
Galloway to throw down the field to. Tight End has been a
nonexistent position. Alex Smith
led the way with 385 yards and 3 touchdowns.
The Bucs tried to upgrade their
receiver position with Dexter Jackson in the second round. He biggest contribution will probably
come in the return game. The Bucs
figure to have to win with strong defense, good running, short passes, and no turnovers in
2008. They just don't have the firepower to challenge the
top offenses in the NFL.
Prediction:
This is always a tough division to pick.
The Falcons won the division in 04, the Panthers in 05, the Saints in
06, and the Buccaneers in 07. It
seems like any team could win this division year in and year out and the Bucs
have the defense to compete.
I like the Bucs defense, but I
still don’t understand how they won the division over the Saints in 2007. While Garcia was a nice addition and
defense does go along way to helping a team win games, the Saints passing game
was vastly superior and should have been enough to carry them, even with their
0-4 start. Had Payton not called that gadget play against the Bucs late in the 4th quarter that gave Tampa Bay new life, New Orleans would have tied Tampa Bay for the division lead in Week 13 and Tampa Bay would probably not have been able to rest everyone to close the season. Things could have turned out much different.
This team reminds me of Baltimore
in 2006. The individual and team
statistics do not scream division winner, but at the end of the year they are
on top. Coaching was as much the difference in
2007 in the NFC South as anything.
Jon Gruden is by far the best coach in that division.
I think Garcia can still lead this
offense and they have intriguing backups should he go down. Detroit, Chicago,
Oakland, Kansas City, and Denver all offer potential for wins. Dallas, Seattle, Minnesota, Green Bay,
and San Diego could all be very tough.
I just think their key defenders
are a year older, the offense doesn’t look much better, and the schedule is
tougher. I know they could have
finished above 9-7 had they played all their players the last couple weeks, but
I just don’t see this team repeating in the division. I think they finish near .500, make things interesting in
the division, and compete with Carolina for 2nd place in this
always-volatile division.
Tampa
Bay’s Record: 8–8 NFC South 2nd Place; No Playoffs
3) Carolina
Panthers
07
Record: 7-9
Points
Scored: 267 (26th)
Points
Allowed: 349 (15th)
Playoff
Result: No Playoffs
2008
Strength of Schedule: 119-137 (.465) (22nd (t) in NFL)
Strengths: Given the offense the Panthers played
with in 2007, the defense did very well to finish 15th in points
allowed. While the Panthers
defense was weaker than previous seasons, they still finished in the middle of
the pack in the NFL.
The Panthers added some nice talent
in the draft. Dan Conner is a good
linebacker from a solid linebacker program in Penn State. He should contribute. Charles Godfrey is a defensive back
that could see the field immediately.
The Panthers secondary still has
solid corners. Gamble and Lucas
are excellent in coverage. They
have to improve on their 31st ranked pass rush, which generated 23
sacks if they want to get the full production out of those guys. They can’t be effective if the
quarterback has all day to throw the ball.
On offense, Steve Smith is still a
top-flight wide receiver. DJ
Hackett was a good addition. Muhsin Muhammad is well past his prime, but is
familiar with Carolina and can help as a possession wide receiver. Dwayne Jarrett needs to step up in his
second year. He had just 6 catches
for 73 yards in his rookie campaign.
Jeff King has the potential to put up good numbers at the tight end
position. A healthy Jake Delhomme
would go along way to helping all of these players put up better numbers in 2008.
Weaknesses:
The Panthers had a very strange year in 2007. They started off 4-2.
Steve Smith is their only really scary weapon. He had 35 catches for 496 yards and 6 touchdowns in those 6 games. That would have translated to 93 catches for 1,322 yards and 16 touchdowns for the season.
Then Jake Delhomme was injured in his 3rd game of the season
and was lost for the year. Smith had some good games with Tesaverde, but really struggled to get even a few catches with Carr and Moore. He finished with just 52 catches for 506 yards and 1
touchdown in his last 10 games. As a result, the offense scored only 14.4 points over the final 10 games. The result was a 3-7 finish to the
season.
The defense, which had been a
stable of this team, did not perform very well in 2007. They finished only 15th in
the league in scoring defense.
That was tied for their worst season since John Fox took over in
2002. A lot of that had to do with
the offense not being able to give them a lead or keep them in good field
position. Still, 3-time Pro Bowl
and 2-time NFL All-Pro first team defensive end Julius Peppers has to have more
than 2.5 sacks. He was awful in
2007. It was his only season
other than 2003 where he failed to register double digit sacks. That was a major reason why the Panthers
finished so low in the sack department.
He is moving to right defensive end with the retirement of Mike Rucker.
Foster and Williams teamed up to be
the 14th best rushing attack in 2007. Foster is gone to San Fran and Williams has yet to show he
can be an every down back. That
factored into the Panthers selecting Jonathan Stewart with the 13th
pick. If he can be healthy by the
start of the season the Panthers should be more effective running the
ball. The Panthers also added
massive tackle Jeff Oath to upgrade the run blocking and pass protection from
the tackle spot. Jordan Gross is
one of the best in the business.
If those two can excel in 2008, that will help the entire offense.
Prediction:
The whole key to the season is whether or not Mr. Delhomme can stay
healthy and whether Peppers can return to 10 plus sack form. Peppers should have a better year. He is not past his prime and has a lot of years left.
While Delhomme is not among the
elite quarterbacks in the league he has proven he can lead this team to
victory. He can throw the ball
downfield to Steve Smith and manage the offense. He played very well in the Super Bowl back in 2003 and led
the Panthers to a NFC Championship appearance in 2005. The only question with him has been
consistency and interceptions, until health crept into the picture the last 2
seasons.
Without him, Matt Moore is the new
starter and as we saw last year, that isn’t really a good thing. In his 3 starts the Panthers went 2-1,
but that 1 win was against the resting Buccaneers to close the season. In the other two starts the Panthers
scored 13 points in each contest. He
just doesn’t have the arm to go downfield on a regular basis.
While Delhomme was very healthy
from 2003 to 2005, he just hasn’t been the last 2 seasons. He missed 3 starts in 2006 and 13 last
year. He had season ending surgery
to his elbow on his throwing arm and is still not throwing at full
strength. That is not what you
want from your starter in June.
The Panthers made some upgrades at
wide receiver, running back, and on defense in the draft. They should be improved. The Saints are a puzzling team and the
Buccaneers have their share of issues.
I would not be shocked if the Panthers competed for the division.
I considered picking them for the
top spot, but I just am not confident that Delhomme will be healthy or
effective the entire season and I don’t think a team can win consistently in
the NFL with Moore starting games.
I don’t pick teams to do well in June that are going through quarterback
health questions. See the 2007
Eagles and 2006 Dolphins for reasons why I don’t do that. I look for more of the same for the
Panthers in 2008 as they try to make the playoffs and save John Fox’s job. The once hot young coach’s hot seat
will get even hotter if the Panthers miss the playoffs.
Carolina’s
Record: 7-9 – NFC South 3rd Place; No Playoffs
4) Atlanta
Falcons
07
Record: 4-12
Points
Scored: 259 (29th)
Points
Allowed: 414 (29th)
Playoff
Result: No Playoffs
2008
Strength of Schedule: 120-136 (.469) (20th (t) in NFL)
Strengths: The Falcons are a team that is in
complete rebuilding mode. When
Michael Vick pleaded guilty to federal dog fighting charges the face of their
franchise was stripped from them.
Bobby Petrino was in his first year coaching and was not able to handle
the transition from the college game to the pro game with that bombshell. The result was a 3-10 record before he resigned. Former Jacksonville defensive
coordinator Mike Smith has been entrusted to get this franchise back on
track.
The Falcons had a number of good
parts last season. Roddy White
broke out in his 3rd season for 83 catches, 1,202 yards, and 6
touchdowns. Considering his
quarterback cast that was a very productive year. Jerious Norwood looked impressive at times and has a lot of
big play potential. He had 103
carries for 603 yards and 1 rushing touchdown, while adding 277 receiving
yards. Even though Warrick Dunn
has returned to Tampa Bay, Norwood will not be the number one guy. Michael Turner was the prized free
agent the Falcons signed in free agency.
After backing up LT for 4 seasons it is his time to be the number one
guy. The two will form a very good
running back duo.
The defense was not very good in
2007, but a few players did stand out.
John Abraham was able to tally 10 sacks. Keith Brooking is still a very underappreciated linebacker. Chris Houston is a young cornerback
that the Falcons hope will develop into a starter now that Hall is a Raider.
Jason Elam was a big signing on
special teams. Morton Anderson was
reliable, but not from long range.
Elam will give them better production on long field goals and the
kickoff game. He is a clutch
kicker with the game on the line and could help the Falcons steal a couple close games.
Weaknesses: The Falcons really bottomed out last
season. They ranked 29th
in both scoring offense and defense.
They were 23rd in offensive yards gained and 29th
in defensive yards allowed. While
they had some players that gave good individual contributions, it didn’t result
in a good showing for the team.
I really believe that Bobby Petrino
was a large part of the problem.
He did not connect well with his players and obviously did not want to
be there. His fights with Hall
were well documented. I thought
his exit to Arkansas the night after a tough Monday Night loss was gutless. Mike Smith should be a much better hire and is much more disciplined. He should be able to take this team forward.
Matt Ryan was a huge draft pick. He gives the Falcon fans something to
hope for. Michael Vick did give
the Falcons a lot of good years and his legal problems should not diminish
that. However, the Falcons have to
move on and Matt Ryan has the potential to be the franchise quarterback the
Falcons need now more than ever.
It will be interesting to see if
they throw him in the fire now or wait until 2009. My guess is that Redman or Harrington could start the season
and that by the middle of the year Ryan will be the number one guy. However, I could see where the Falcons
throw the youngster into the fire on day one. Ryan is signed so he will be at training camp on day one. This won't be a Russell situation from last year where the Raiders had not choice but to sit the September arrival most of the season. How Ryan does in training camp will go a long way to determining his opening day status. Either way, it is going to hamper the Falcons from joining
the top passing offenses in 2008.
This is a rebuilding year and the Falcons must accept that.
The Falcons improved their
offensive line by drafting Sam Baker in the first round. He should help the Falcons continue to
upgrade the offensive line. They
also added Harry Douglas to give their QBs another target on offense.
On defense they added Curtis Lofton
to upgrade their linebacker core.
In the secondary they added Chevis Jaskson and Thomas DeCoud. The Falcons are trying to retool
a defense that had ranked in the middle of the NFL over the 3 seasons prior to
2007. The first round was geared to offense, with some of their other picks going to upgrade the defense.
Prediction:
I like what the Falcons did this off-season. I thought Ryan was a solid pick. I like the Turner signing. I like that they brought in Elam. The division is not very strong and they have an easy
schedule based on last year’s results.
That said it is very hard to win in this league with a rookie
quarterback. Even if Harrington or
Redman starts the season neither has proven they can win week in and week out in the NFL.
The key for the Falcons will be a
fast start. They get Detroit,
Tampa, Kansas City, and Carolina to open the season. The rest of the schedule is a mix of easier teams, like
Oakland and tougher teams like Green Bay and Philadelphia. They have some tough
games at the end of November and beginning of December, which include San
Diego, at New Orleans, Tampa, and at Minnesota.
All in all, I look for the Falcons
to be a more competitive team and not be outscored by over 9 points per
game. That probably won't show much in the win column, but it will make for better football in Atlanta. However, I don’t see where
they will get much more than 5 wins in 2008. That doesn’t mean they aren’t on the right track. It means it takes time to rebuild a franchise. If they can develop their young talent and have another good off-season in 2009 they may be able to start thinking about competing for a playoff spot.
Atlanta’s
Record: 5-11 – NFC South 4th
Place; No Playoffs
That is how I see the NFC West playing out in 2008. I am taking my summer vacation around July 4th and will resume releasing articles sometime in the middle of July. I plan on releasing my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winner on Wednesday, July 23, 2008. Thank you to everyone that has followed these previews. You have made writing these a lot of fun.
As always these articles and many not released on my blog are available at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.
Nice job. I'm a Buc's fan and I agree they just did not do enough to help themselfs on offense. The defense is going to have to play at a very high level in order for them to compete for the division.
I think this will be a dog fight between the Saints and the Buccaneers (I just realized this might not be the best of comparisons given the NFC South's Atlanta Falcons. Oh well...). You've missed one key ingredient in your analysis of the Bucs. Last year they developed one of the top offensive lines in the NFL and evidently it is flying under the radar... How do you think they controlled the games they played? This season they replaced the oldest performer on last year's line with their prime competitor's starting center Jeff Faine, solidifying an already impressive unit. I think their average NFL experience will be around 3 years this coming season. They also added TE Ben Troupe from Tennessee. At 6'4" 270 lbs. he will accentuate the Bucs run blocking... On D they added a four star DE in Marques Douglas and S Eugene Wilson beyond Talib, DT Dre Moore and OLB Geno Hayes all added in the draft.
Tampa Bay may win ugly in many eyes, but they will win...
The Saints are much improved on D and it will be interesting.
Bucs will win the division, I agree with Dwindy on offensive line being under the radar. We drafted some sleepers, Adding Zuttah only made our O-line stronger . WR core was upgraded, Amarri Jackson from USF Dexter Jackson will help with his quickness, Antonio Bryant is very Athletic. Warrick Dunn, Ben Troupe, Eugene Wilson, A. Talib, I don't see where all these post go off saying the Bucs didn't really get help in the offseason!?! Bucs added a variety of depth to the team, that one the division last season..Saints barely added some defense and they win the division...I don't see it. Waiting on top hater to chim in...LoL
aero13 - Thanks for the comments. That's what I'm thinking too. I think they have the talent to win games, I just don't like the age of all their key players.
dwingdy1 - Thanks for the post. I agree with your point on the offensive line. They ran the ball very well and Garcia was not picked much. That is both on the offensive line for giving him time to throw and the backs holes to run through. They didn't average a high yards / carry, but did do well to open holes for their power backs to run through.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Bucs beat the Saints, but if I were to predict it I think the Bucs would finish 2nd, not first.
Last edited by StreetCred on May 29th at 10:12 AM.
Rainman - Thanks for the comments. Good point. I should have mentioned that they signed Eugene Wilson. Keep in mind he has played only 15 games the last 2 years and has 2 interception since 2004. He may prouduce with a change of scenery and health.
I like their defense, but I don't think the guys they added are good enough to carry the defense if Barber and especially Brooks decline as they get older.
On offense, it is more of the same. I mentioned Dunn and I think he will help in the passing game. Troupe had 5 catches for 47 yards last season and 13 catches for 150 yards and 2 Tds the year before that. He is not even worth mentioning at this point. Bryant has bounced around the league and did't play last year. Other than 2005 has been below average his entire career. I don't see how bringing in an underachieving head case that fights with the coaching staff retools the receiving core.
Not a Bucs hater either. My uncle held season tickets for a number of years to the Bucs. Just don't think they have enough offense to win the division two consecutive years.
One of the problems I have with the Saints is that offensively there is such a disparate function between McAllister and Bush in the running game. Most teams have variety now, but it seems as though the Saints don't have a fundamental strategy for when Bush subs in. If they ran a circa-2000 Rams offense where Bush was like Marshall Faulk it would seem to be favorable. But for some reason, maybe blocking schemes, it doesn't seem to be as effective. Don't know if Bush is a bad match for their philosophy or if their lineman can't adjust to style.
Defensively they should be better, as you've mentioned. I don't believe they have to be a lot better to win this division because of the Bucs, Panthers and Falcons offenses'. But Drew Brees is the key - he will throw INTs at bad times. Ball control and few turnovers are what gets them to the playoffs.
A very well thought-out and educated prediction, but....YOU ARE INSANE!!!! It's obvious you're in love with D. Brees and that offense, I can't blame you though. Offense wins fans, but DEFENSE WINS GAMES and that what the BUCS do best, we finished 9-7 in a wheelchair last season, we now have strength, depth and experience in both sides of the ball and will win the division 12-4
Now for my analysis of each team:
NO: They really ticked me off last year the way they played. Week 1 against the Colts gave me a really bad feeling. Turned out to be right.
Ok now how I think of the team without emotion. With Brees, they got a QB. I can't even think of when I could have said that with the Saints. They got the passing game needed to win be championship caliber team. Stecker did give hope with McAllister being hurt last year. You are right with way too much inconsistently. Colston was a steal especially for a 7th rounder. Bush needs to be used as a changeup back until he can actually run down the middle. He isn't Barry Sanders who can juke behind the line avoid tacklers. I need to wait before evaluating Meacham. Remember he didn't play last season due to injury. Don't be too harsh on the balance of playcalling. But you are right that they should have done more of a effort to run with that defense. I think they hesitated because as a team they were only average 3.7 YPA, which is below the league average. They made an effort on improving the secondary which is good. They need that defense especially in the secondary to be improved to actually be taken seriously as a championship team.
TB: The defense has been usually good this decade. I agree that the pass defense was interesting on what occurred. I loved the game against the Redskins. I poked fun at the Skins' fans all week over it. They did their typical "We gave the game away" BS over it even though TB almost gave it instead. Bucs held it on for less than 5 min. on offe
Car: What happened to Julius Peppers last year? It's like he fell off the face of the planet. He needs to get back on track for this team to do better. Still interesting that they finished 15th with him sucking though. The receiver acquisitons were good. Jarret didn't really impress me that much. Hackett should help as the 2nd receiver while Muhsin should be going down the middle. I thought that Steve Smith only had one good game with Testaverde, the first against Arizona. Sucks Carr didn't do well as he could have especially after hurting his back. That with the fact of the upgrades to help Schaub in Houston to be 8-8 hurt him alot. At least he is NY now. I felt that Carolina gave up too easily on him. At least they got a replacement for Foster so Williams could have an easier workload. I'm surprised hearing from you now that Delhomme had problems with INTs. Reason I am surprised is that he is in the top 3 in postseason INTs% ever in the history of the NFL behind Bart Starr and Tom Brady.
Give me a little while before I sound off about about my favorite team, the Atlanta Falcons.
Moseby - Thanks for the post. The Saints must do better using Bush or they will suffer the same problems they did in 07. Too many screens, swing passes, reverses, and gadget plays. Good point about Brees. He must play more consistent.
Faithfull - Thanks for the post. What is this strength, depth, and experience you speak of on the offensive side of the ball. Don't tell me you think Dunn is worth 3 wins?
I am slightly biased toward the offense having watched Favre for 15 years, but what I am more biased toward balance. I like the Saints, because I think the upgrades on defense have made their weaknesses on defense are not as bad as what the Bucs still have on offense.
Dehbashi - Thanks for the post. You have a message as well.
NO: Agree with you there. I don't think they are a championship team yet, because their defense is not good enough, they have to run better, and not turnover as much. Still good enough to win the division, but I wouldn't bet a lot on it. They make me nervous to say the least.
TB: That game was a joke. I don't know how Washington managed to lose that. Would have made me mad as well had I been rooting for the Skins.
Dehbashi - CAR: Good thoughts. On the topic of Delhomme. He has 7 playoff games, 4 of which were in 2003. The other players you listed have a larger body of work over more postseasons. I said he played well in the playoffs in 03 and 05.
He throws one pick every 31.5 passes, which is not bad, but it is not great either. That is about the same number Favre threw over his career and everyone rags on him for being interception prone. He finished 7th, 9th, and 5th in the NFL in interceptions from 03-05, which is why I was saying he needs to cut those down.
Atl: Will be waiting to see what you think of their 08 outlook.
I wanted to wait before saying anything so that I could be a little more calm.
Let's see if I could try to say some good news about them.
I admit I hate the term rebuilding but with the releases they did I know that is happening. The draft? Sam Baker was good for the Oline, Harry Douglas was a nice pick especially since they waited until the 3rd round to pick him. A lot of the picks went to defense which was a problem for a few years. It could possibly get better with Smith, a former defensive coordinator, being the head coach. I agree it was nice to see Roddy White breaking out. I believed he could be good unlike Jenkins who they picked a year earlier. Norwood could be dangerous if he gets better. Awesome pickup with Michael Turner. I was smiling while they did that. John Abraham did good getting back from the injury year of last year. Jason Elam is a nice add up. Sure it would have been cool to keep Morten Andersen but I understand that sometimes especially in last second situations of close games distance is needed.
Now the bad news.
I'll start with some of the releases. I felt they had no idea who to release and keep. They release Grady Jackson and don't find a substitute for him. Unless they believe who they had already on the roster was good enough then it was a bad move. I hated the release of Alge Crumpler. Unless another receiver steps up to help White and Perriman(if he doesn't get injured again), we need him.
Now the release and "non-release" that made me go #### insane. Release Bryon Leftwich and release and resign Harrington. Can I say what the ####? Ok, Leftwich has issues with injuries but he could be a decent backup since he could produce. Harrington sucks ####. The joke of releasing and resigning him wanted to make me shoot myself. What do people see in him? He plays for Detroit, Miami, and Atlanta and sucks. Leftwich was getting hurt here and there but was actually productive with Jacksonville. With Atlanta, his injuries took over. Notice how I said Leftwich should be the backup. If at some point he gets healthy think of making him a starter. I rather have someone on the team who can do good who could get injured compared to someone who stinks. I'm glad Petrino was good for being an #### to the players but he was a coward for ditching without finishing a season. People slammed and slammed Saban even to this day for leaving at the END of two years with the Dolphins. This guy should be given worse treatment for not even completing one season. He didn't even say see ya to the players. He just left a note on the door of the locker room. The players were so pissed off for the rest of the season the team, including Warrick Dunn, carried copies of that note with them. He couldn't even connect with the players due to his arrogance. And people think Bill Belicheck is an ####? At least Belicheck even in Cleveland was able to talk to players.
I bet you people are wondering why I haven't said a word about Matt Ryan. I wanted to keep him as a separate comment because it will let me give in detail about everything involving him. First StreetCred, I disagree 100% for drafting him. A really bad move on their part. His senior year at BC was his only good year. Except for Atlanta and Batimore(Still think they shouldn't have drafted a QB), everyone understood that this class of QBs were weak so they waited to draft them. He is overrated and I think the problem with everyone gushing over him caused Blank to pick him. They pick could have been used on a defensive tackle like Glenn Dorsey, etc. Redmaan, DJ Shockley, and sadly Harrington would have been good enough and if they really wanted a QB they could have waited until another round. This is from a view of production of a player which is me being a little nice. But, if they had an idea like Steve Young about being just the face of the franchise and trying to put Vick coming back as QB starter to bed, I will slap them. Two reasons. If that is the reason, then prepare for him to stink because you don't draft people who are best for PR, you draft skill. Second, I heard this guy loves going to strip clubs. I'm not saying incidents like Pacman will happen but with the Vick issue and typical media, his #### will be crucified and the Falcons will still take a hit in PR.
Arthur Blank needs to be hanged. He just made enemies out of the entire NFL and fans in general. If the law said I could kill Arthur Blank, I will. What the #### was wrong with him on the Ryan signing? Was he so #### high when he made the deal. Thank god John Czarnecki agrees with me on this. What the hell was he thinking? In case people don't know, he signed Ryan to a NFL record of a rookie contract ever. He beats out Jake Long, the #1 pick in the draft this year in money and beats Jamarcus Russell, who even had to sit out all of training camp and preseason just to get the money he wanted. How does a number 3 pick beat a number 1? I don't get it. First, he ticks off the owners who were fight about the money players make by getting rid of the CBA. They know this move will make people take owners less seriously. The fans have been complaining about the rookies getting too much comparing to veterans or general. This made it worse. People don't understand what will really happen. Remember really only Ryan and Long were signed at that time. That will cause agent and players to screw with other teams. For example, St. Louis wants to sign Chris Long for a contract less than Jake Long's most like since they will try to say Jake Long was the top pick but Chris isn't. Chris can just point to the Ryan Deal saying so he got more than Jake why can't I? This will cause a higher chance of players holding out retarding their growth even further. These were the same people who just went to try and lost the case of trying to recoup 20 million dollars from Vick's contract.
They should have understood to play it smart from that but nope they got stupider. Taking a bigger hit on their salary cap compared to Miami who picked number 1 and paying the amount is money is the biggest embarrassment ever for an NFL team.
I'm assuming you watched last season because of the Redskins game, SO heres a undown on offense for ya....Ben Troupe was inaffective last season because of Young. Gruden and Garcia love that 3 TE set. Troupe, Alex Smith and John Gilmore (new addition) will be a great TE core...I see plenty of big blocks outta these guys as well, Offensive line is getting younger and bigger each season adding Zuttah from Rutgers as I mentioned before helps...to Jeff Faine (New Addition) Davin Joesph, Jeremy Trueblood, Aaron Sears and even Vetern Luke Petitgout is off that obtrusive injured list. SO O-line is in great shape. New Line man and TEs will open up the wholes needed for Warrick Dunn, Earnest Graham and don't forget my homie Mike Bennett was on a learning curve and will be very familiar with the system this season...Not even mentioning a Caddy comeback. Take your time bud!!!
As for our Recieving Corps it really isn't that bad....Michael Clayton, Ike Hillard, Joey Galloway, Maurice Stovall(showed hella promise last season, I like this guy), also Paris Warren will be off injured reserve this season and ready to go, I watched Warren at the Bucs Dolphins preseaon game and he was catching everything, if not for his preseason injury he would have been a major contibutor, As for the new addition Dexter Jackson(recommend watching youtube videos of highlights and combine) this kid is crazy fast, basically a Desean Jackson but smaller school. Dexter will line up and take some pressure of Galloway, can run very quick routes and has great hands. Antonio Bryant is another great addition in my ey
eyes. Very Athletic and also great hands, he will be the sleeper when Joey gets the double coverage...This guy know it's his time to shine or his career is over, look for him to play his heart out. A big reason I believe our WR core didn't fair to well is our QB situation, Garcia is a great QB don't get me wrong but I think he is a little too conservative at times...If the Bucs had a QB like Bress this WR Core would shine, pulling 30-45 attempts a game recievers put up numbers. Keep in mind Last season was Garcias first with the Bucs system, I see a bigger year for him. Overall I would say our offense isn't as bad as most of the critics slam around, but hey thats why we're a sleeper team, people sleep until they get smacked in the face alla Giants. Bucs undoubty upgraded offense this offseason and defense and win South Division 10-6 9-7 at least, and smash all inconsistant talks!!!
thank u everyone!!!! please keep sleeping on my panthers! we finished 7-9 last season with 4 diffrent qbs 5 counting the 1 we lost in preseason. jake was off to a great start last season with his new o'cord. 8 tds 1 int. your are definitley wrong about matt moore this kid has the potential to be jakes replacement. in his last 3 starts he played really well considering not even half the play book had been opened for him. please keep drinking that louisiana swamp water & watch the aints have another subpar year. the division will go like this
panthers 11-5
bucs 10-6
aints 8-8
falcons 6-10
the south was af luke last year mark my words on that
Rainman863 - Thanks and here is my response. I understand that everybody is happy about the players that they brought in. Everyone has potential. But I have no credibility if I say that Troupe is a great tight end without Vincent Young, that A. Bryant is going to be the 2nd weapon that Garica never had, and that Mike Bennett was on a learning curve. Those players have not reguarly produced their entire careers, period. That is being a Homer.
I like Dunn. He is a great locker room guy, leader, and still has some gas in the tank. He will excel in the short passing game. Other than that it is more of the same, players that can produce on any given week, but do not scare defensive cordinators and don't put up big numbers.
Last year was not the first year for Garica in that system. Gruden, Mariucci, and Reid all run a variation of the West Coast offense. You are posting on the blog of a Packer fan and all those guys coached in Green Bay and use a variation of Mike Holmgren's offense. While terminology and certain plays will be different, it is virtually the same offense and my bet is that he has about the same year to slightly better, depending on how healthy he is.
As for the Bucs winning the division. Would not surprise me. In terms of confidence of whether I will get this pick right it is in last place among all the divisions. I went back and forth with Carolina, New Orleans, and Tampa. In the end I had to choose one and that was New Orleans.
Longbo - Thanks for the comments. Matt Moore was pretty average last year. His team scored 13 points against Dallas and Seattle. He finally put up some numbers against the Tampa Bay Bucs who rested everyone and didn't care if they were there.
Coach Fox said this on May 28th, 2008 Delhomme, "It's just a matter of fatigue in that area of his arm and getting his arm back in throwing shape," Fox said. "The only way to do that is throw, and we've been cautious with that. He keeps getting stronger, throwing more each day, and the next day he feels fine. We'll kind of stay on that progress through summer school practices, take a little break, and then get ready for camp."
I don't like reading that about a quarterback in June. The Panthers can't win without him. They proved that last sesaon. He led the team with 8 touchdown passes despite playing 2 & 1/2 games. If I was certain he was 100% healthy and could last the season I would have considered picking them. I am not and therefore picked them to finish 3rd.
This is the same conversation I had with Eagles fans last year and I picked them to finish 8-8. I think I will be proven right here too.
Last edited by StreetCred on May 30th at 12:47 PM.
Dehbashi - Thanks for the Falcons comments. The one thing I wanted to touch on was your comments about Ryan. I think they overpaid him, but I think you have to consider a couple things.
1) They have to move on from Vick. They are doing that. They want this guy to suceed from Day 1 and he has to be entrenched as the starter by next year so the Michael Vick swan song doesn't start. To do that he needs to be in camp this year. Ryan knows that, the Falcons know that, and therefore the Falcons overpaid to get this done early and have him at all the practices and camps from day 1.
2) It is not uncommon that we have this problem with QBs. Take Brady Quinn last year's 22nd pick. He signed a five-year deal worth $20 million, with $7.5 million guaranteed. Ambi Okoye signed a six-year, $15.4 million contract with $12 million in guarantees. He was the 10th pick.
That is why Cedric Benson had a holdout problem. He wanted the same as the 4th pick from the year before in Phillip Rivers. He didn't get it.
It is understood that QBs receive the highest salary and that teams are not going to pay a position player the same as a quarterback, even if that quarterback was drafted later. Chris Long will have to live with that or face a very long holdout.
All in all they definatley overpaid, but I don't think it is tragic or serious as you are making it out to be.
For your 2 points,
1) Don't like the concept because I would like Vick back but in this country it isn't a choice.
2) Are you sure that you got the salaries of Quin and Okoy correct? Could you send me to a website that shows it? The reason I say this is because I remember Quinn trying to hold out and it failed and the money was around what a 22nd pick.
Read Czar's article. Here's an excerpt if it is true.
Atlanta didn't negotiate. They simply rolled over and raised a white flag. Also, there is no precedent for giving the third overall pick, even if he's billed as a franchise quarterback, more money than the previous year's No. 1 pick.
Just two years ago, Texas hero Vince Young was the first quarterback selected and also in the third overall pick behind Mario Williams and Reggie Bush. Young's representatives tried, but failed with the Tennessee Titans to receive more guaranteed money than Williams and Bush. In fact, Ryan's overall contract is a whopping 25 percent more than Young's and that in itself is ludicrous.
That's why I can't see the point on how QBs receive higher than a position player.
Unless the new CBA allows recoup of money from "violated" contracts, then if he somehow pulls a crime off and also thrown to jail as example, the Falcons will have Vick's contract and Ryan's Contract binded to their salary cap without either of them playing.
I have to agree with Longbo. You guys are just sweeping the Panthers aside as an afterthought. We've made a lot of improvements in the offseason and are poised to win now. Delhomme's arm is stronger than it ever was. He has more targets. He has a much bigger and stronger offensive line. The running back situation should play out to be an improvement as well. Williams averaged 5.0 yds per carry last year. Add to that a big back with speed and you have a versatile offense that we should see controlling the clock and putting points on the board with almost every drive. The defensive line has gotten smaller and faster, and the linebacking corps is hands down the best in the division. The only question mark is free safety and if the rookie Godfrey doesn't get the start we have Terrance Holt to put in that spot. Granted, he's not the best FS in the game, but he has a lot of experience and should fit in solid. To predict the Panthers to finish third because you're not informed about Delhomme's arm is just plain retarded.
yessir23 - Thanks for the comments. I like how your post infers that the Bucs have won the NFC South for 5 straight years. A different team has won it each of the last 4 years. We'll see if they own it "yet again."
DaRealBooyah - Thanks for the post. Delhomme's arm is not as strong as it ever was. You have no way of knowing that. In the past did he throw on a 30-40 throw limit?
I think the Panthers could win the division. I like some of the moves they made, especially Hackett and Stewart. But Tommy John's surgery is a serious matter and to act like I am not informed of his arm condition when neither of us knows how that arm will hold up under an NFL throwing schedule is ridiculous to say the least.
It is a question mark that will define their season, positively or negatively. I think 11-5 is a reach for the Panthers and I don't think that division is going to see 3 teams with records over 8-8.
StreetCred, I'm two weeks late in commenting, but comment I must. Delhomme's throwing without any pain now. Unfortunately Jonathan Stewart isn't out there due to Oregon going by the antiquated quarter system. I think Oregon's school year ends NEXT WEEK. He won't be there until training camp. I have a special treat for Oregon's quarter system on Sunday. Stay tuned.
It's going to be a mistake for anyone to sleep on the Panthers. I think they'll battle it out with New Orleans with Tampa Bay close behind.
StreetCred...While it's true that nobody truly knows how strong Delhomme's arm feels but Delhomme, his coaches and teammates are the observers and recipients of the balls he's throwing. Their statements to the press is what I'm going on. And granted, he's only throwing 30-40 times a day, but with Carolina's new and improved "ram it down their throat" run first offense, it's not likely he'll throw even that much on game day. So, in my opinion, Carolina is poised to make a strong run deep into the playoffs this year.
Jon464 & DaRealBooyah - Thanks for the comments as always. The typical recovery time for this injury is about a year and it is not guaranteed. I understand that he is throwing without pain right now. We'll see if that is the case come the start of the season or when he starts throwing in games.
You have to remember I have Tampa Bay finishing one game better than Carolina. New Orleans I have at 10-6. I could see any of the three winning it.
I just don't like picking teams to make the playoffs when their QB is coming off major surgery, (see Palmer 06, Culpepper 06, McNabb 07). They usually don't come back at full strength the first year. Now with these players it was knee issues. Tommy John surgery on a QB's throwing elbow is just not something that gives me a lot of confidence.
I hope I'm wrong, because I always liked Jake Delhomme and think he is a good player. But I'm doing predictions and I don't think I can pick a team to finish first with that kind of question at QB and no solid backup. If he stays healthy I think Carolina has a good shot at making the playoffs, because I like a lot of their other moves. Hackett and Stewart in that offense should be a major plus.
Last edited by StreetCred on June 12th at 11:35 AM.
Two points - One, the NFC West is much worse than the NFC South -- run the numbers.
Two, the Saints are the biggest frauds in the league (horrible secondary, questionable runningbacks, and one proven wide receiver) -- take a closer look.
MistahLong - Thanks for the post. Sorry I am late on the comment back. The NFC South was the only division whose winner didn't win 10 games. The difference between the West and the South is that Seattle was much stronger than Tampa Bay, but Carolina and New Orleans were better as a group than Arizona and San Fran. Bottom line is both division stunk last season. Which one stunk more depends on how you look at it, which is why I said arguably the worst, not certainly the worst.
On to the Saints. Not crazy about them. Huge underachiever last season. This is a big year for them. I think they will bounce back, but with how poorly they both played and were coached anything is possible in 08.
streetcred, didn't you notice the bucs rode a wheel chair into the play-offs last year resting most of their starters for the last 2 weeks of the year? Oh, and the giants won the super bowl with a 10-6 record, so there goes your theory of the importance of a reg. season record. It's all about momentum, how well the teams play in December. Bucs play well at home, they will go 4-0, as far as the Saints go, well they're not so good at home, even with that said they best they 'll go is 2-2 and miss the play-offs to an East team.
Street - saying which division is worse is difficult as you point out but consider this -- Carolina did not have a great team last season yet they swept the NFC West including the Seahawks (who are also on my overrated list).
A team that you hope will bounce back should not be on top of your predictions for this division. Whatifsports has the Saints finishing at or just under 500. It sounds accurate given that they haven't improved on the areas of need (secondary, running game, wide receivers).
