As I had promised earlier, I was going to release the 5
teams that received a kind deal from the NFL schedule maker and 5 teams that
were not treated as well. I wanted to wait until after the draft before I made my final call on that. There
are a couple things to keep in mind.
1) I tried not to pick a bunch of teams from the same division. I know Cleveland has a tough schedule
as well. 14 of their 16 opponents
are the same as Pittsburgh’s schedule.
What is the point of covering two teams with almost identical schedules? I tried to pick teams from different divisions when breaking down the
schedule. 2) I tried to give
deference to stretches of tough or easy games over overall schedule. While one team may have a similar
strength of schedule, if those tough games are bunched into 6 weeks, I think
that makes for a tougher schedule.
Without further delay, here is my list:
5 Teams that Were Brutalized by the NFL Schedule Maker
1)
Pittsburgh Steelers – This is by far the most brutal schedule
in the NFL. The Steelers
face 8 different playoff teams from 2007.
They also face Cleveland twice, which won 10 games and finished a
tiebreaker out of the playoffs.
Here is their schedule from Week 5 to Week 14: 5) at Jacksonville, 6)
Bye, 7) at Cincinnati, 8) NY Giants, 9) at Washington, 10) Indianapolis, 11)
San Diego, 12) Cincinnati, 13) at New England, 14) Dallas.
Thank god for the Bengals or there
would be no easy games. In
particular that stretch playing Indy, San Diego, at New England, and Dallas is
brutal. The Steelers opponents winning
percentage in 2008 was .598. That
is toughest in the NFL. Their only
opponents that had losing records in 2007 are Cincinnati (2) and Baltimore
(2). When you consider that most
people feel the Ravens had a very quality draft, they should be improved in
2008. The Steelers did well in the
draft and have a solid nucleus returning in 2008. However, they have no favors when it comes to the
schedule.
2)
Indianapolis – It is bad enough having to play in the AFC
South where both Jacksonville and Tennessee made the playoffs. They have the following stretch of
games: 7) at Green Bay, 8) at Tennessee, 9) New England, 10) at Pittsburgh, 11)
Houston, 12) at San Diego, 13) at Cleveland.
That is 5 playoff teams in 7
weeks. Cleveland was a 10 game
winner that was very busy in free agency.
There are 3 road games in 4 weeks with the only home game being against
New England. The winning
percentage of the Colts opponents in 2007 was .594, which is not that much
behind the Steelers. When you
consider the pass rushers Jacksonville added and the Colts not having a first
round pick, I believe the gap has closed between Indy and the rest of that
division. While the Colts are
still very talented, they will have more than their share of obstacles to
repeat in the AFC South.
3)
Green Bay Packers – When you look at the NFL schedule, you can
begin to see why Brett Favre didn’t think returning to the playoffs based on
the development of the team would be enough to ensure a playoff birth. Here is their schedule from Week 3
through 11. 3) Dallas, 4) at Tampa
Bay, 5) Atlanta, 6) at
Seattle, 7) Indianapolis, 8) Bye, 9) at Tennessee, 10) at Minnesota, 11)
Chicago, 12) at New Orleans.
That is a lot of tough games. 5 of those 9 teams are playoff
teams. Minnesota has added Jared
Allen and the Packers couldn’t beat the Bears last year when the Pack won 13
games. Two of the Pack’s 3 losses were to Chicago. New Orleans could return to their 2006 form this
season. The only victory that
would seem certain is the Atlanta game at home. The Packer’s opponents winning percentage in 2007 was
.531. The Packers aren’t going to
have much time to adjust to life without #4. They had best get out of the gate fast, because the schedule
will be unforgiving if they need to make up ground starting in Week 6.
4)
Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys are naturally going to have a
tough schedule seeing that they were one of 3 teams that made the playoffs in
their own division. Furthermore,
the Eagles were 8-8 and signed the biggest free agent in the offseason in
Samuel. Still, the Cowboys have a
brutal stretch in the middle of the season. 8) Tampa Bay, 9) at NY Giants, 11) at Washington, 12) San
Francisco, 13) Seattle, 14) at Pittsburgh, 15) NY Giants.
That would be 6 playoff opponents
in 7 weeks for the Dallas Cowboys.
The Cowboys overall schedule had a winning percentage of .523 in 2007. The Cowboys had a 13-3 record in 2007
and potentially added 4 key pieces on draft weekend to go along with Zach
Thomas. They did what they needed
to do to keep pace. However, they
will not be able to have the lapses they had at the end of the season in 2007,
otherwise their schedule is strong enough to make them pay in 2008.
5)
Seattle Seahawks – The Seahawks don’t have that 8 game stretch
where they play a bunch of playoff opponents. Playing in the NFC West helps in that regard. Still, the Seahawks opponents had a
.477 winning percentage in 2007.
Of note there are 2 three game stretches that could give the Hawks some
issues. 5) at NY Giants, 6) Green
Bay, 7) at
Tampa Bay & 12) Washington, 13) at
Dallas, 14) New England.
The Seahawks have some nice games
against Miami, New York Jets, Buffalo, St Louis (2), and San Francisco
(2). Arizona is probably their
most formidable opponent in the division.
It is imperative that they take care of those teams and not suffer any
lapses. This shouldn’t be like
2007 when they played 2 playoff teams the entire season and none in the last 10
weeks of the season. If the
Seahawks stumble where they shouldn’t, the schedule will be much less
forgiving.
5 Teams that Were Spared by the
NFL Schedule Maker
1)
New England Patriots – It must be pretty nice to be coming off
a 16-0 regular season and not only get the 7th pick in the draft,
but get the league’s easiest schedule at .387. Part of that is due to the 1-15 Dolphins and 4-12 NY Jets
residing in their division. Still,
here are there first 4 opponents:
1) Kansas City. 2) at NY Jets, 3) Miami, 4) Bye, 5) at San
Francisco.
The only time they play 2007
playoff opponents in back to back weeks are Pittsburgh and Seattle in Weeks 13
and 14. There are only 4 playoff opponents
out of 16 on their schedule. That
is the minimum a team that finished in 1st place can play the
following season. I’m sure the NY
Jets will be better and that there will be some surprises on their
schedule. However, considering the
season the Patriots had and the changes they are making on defense, they got a
very favorable schedule. It is
easy not only in terms of overall quality, but the lack of quality they play in
the first 5 weeks of the season while those new parts become acclimated to the
Patriot’s way.
2)
San Diego Chargers – Very similar situation to the
Patriots. They play in a bad
division and therefore only drew 4 playoff opponents out of a possible 16
opponents on their schedule. Their
first 5 opponents are 1) Carolina, 2) at Denver, 3) NY Jets, 4) at Oakland, 5)
at Miami.
The Chargers have a few tougher
obstacles that the Patriots. They
did draw Pittsburgh and Indy in back to back weeks for Week 11 and 12. New Orleans could rebound from their
dismal 2007 campaign. Overall, the
Chargers look like they are in pretty good shape with this schedule too. Playing in the AFC West is a blessing
in of itself. Combined with 3
games against Buffalo, NY Jets, and Miami gives the Chargers an easier road
than most.
3)
New Orleans Saints – I believe the schedule sets up nicely for
the Saints to have a bounce back season in 2008. Here is their schedule from Week 3 to 11. 3) at Denver, 4) San Francisco, 5)
Minnesota, 6) Oakland, 7) at Carolina, 8) San Diego, 9) Bye, 10) at Atlanta,
11) at Kansas City.
Consider that there is only one
playoff team from 2007 in that 7 game mix. The Saints schedule had a winning percentage of .449 in
2007. They play against the weak AFC
West. The NFC North is a relative
unknown in 2008. Who knows if
Minnesota will be able to win given their QB situation, if the Bears will
return to their 06 level, or if the Packers can survive without Favre?
Furthermore, the Saints divisional
leader (Tampa) won only 9 games in 2007 and has several issues of their
own. Tampa fans will remind you
that is because Tampa tanked the last couple games of the season. Still, most objective people will agree
the Bucs were the weakest divisional champion in 2007. If New Orleans has fixed their
defensive problems this offseason and can run the ball in 2008, the schedule
sets up nicely for them.
4)
Arizona Cardinals - I know, I know. People have been telling you that Arizona is the team to
watch in the NFC West since Denny Green took over. Every year they find a way to win 8 games or less. But, when you look at this schedule,
they should get off to a great start.
Here is what they are looking at:
1) at San Francisco, 2) Miami, 3) at Washington, 4) at NY Jets, 5)
Buffalo, 6) Dallas, 7) Bye, 8) at Carolina, 9) at St. Louis, 10) San Francisco.
That is exactly 2 playoff teams in
their first 9 games. The overall
schedule has a winning percentage of .465, so it is fairly friendly when
compared to other teams. They have
to make sure they aren’t depending on the end of the season to win games. They finish 15) Minnesota, 16) at New
England, 17) Seattle. However, if
the Cardinals can continue to progress in year 2 of the Ken Whisenhunt program
they will be in good shape to be competing either for the division or a wild
card spot come the end of the season.
5)
Minnesota Vikings – Minnesota has a schedule where their
opponents won .551 of their games in 2007. Many people will not have them on the easy column. However, I go further than just looking
at percentages. They get Green Bay
on the road in Week 1. That is
huge, seeing the Packers will be playing their first game without Brett
Favre. They are retiring Favre’s
number. Rodgers is going to be as
nervous as he ever will be. What
better time to play Green Bay on the road and potentially steal an early season
divisional win on the road?
Second, they will not be playing
any cold games. Here is their
schedule for November and December: 9) Houston, 10) Green Bay, 11) at Tampa
Bay, 12) at Jacksonville, 13) Chicago, 14) at Detroit, 15) at Arizona, 16)
Atlanta, 17) NY Giants. That is
huge for a team that traditionally does not play well in the elements.
Third, they don’t really have any
stretches where they play multiple impossible games. I really like them to do well from Week 13-16. That is when teams are making their
playoff push. Week 1 and 2 at
Green Bay and at home against Indy will be tough. They play Green Bay, at Tampa Bay, and at Jacksonville in
Week 10-12. Green Bay and Tampa
Bay are two teams that many people will not pick to repeat in the playoffs this
season. If that is your worst
stretch of games, then things aren’t too bad.
While the numbers suggest that
Minnesota has a tough schedule, the retirement of Brett Favre is not factored
into that. Take out Green Bay’s
record and the Vikings opponents have a winning percentage of .513, which is
much more manageable. While the
Vikings didn’t get a gift from the NFL, it isn’t nearly as bad as you might
think. The Vikings set up well to
take an up for grab NFC North if they can survive the tough slate of AFC South
games.
There you have it. What did you think of your team’s
schedule for 2008? How do you
think I broke down the schedule?
Do you think I am disrespecting a certain team’s schedule or not giving
another team’s enough credit? Let
me know your thoughts.
I was surprised to see the Seahawks in your list of the five toughest schedules. Granted they won their division last season and for that they have to play the other NFC division winners, but their out of conference division is the AFC East with one good team and one decent team. Then there's their own division, another weak sister... Don't get me wrong, I'm not complaining it just surprised me.
I was aware of the Steelers' lousy schedule as well as the Patriots winning the schedule lottery (sometimes life just isn't fair).
The Vikes appear poised to win the NFC North this season. The only way that doesn't happen (barring injuries) is if the Packers do well with Rodgers. It's a shame what has happened to the Bears and the Lions are just going to be the Lions so long as Ford is satisfied with Millen...
hey street- i got a question for ya, how many times does a team do exactly the same as the year before? and how many times does that team not get better or worse during the offseason? How many times has a team gone from first to last and vice versa?
"YOUR SCHEDULE IS AS HARD AS YOUR NEXT OPPONENT DONT WASTE TIME LOOKING AT IT OTHER THAN TO MAKE TRAVEL ARRANGEMENTS" - Marv Levy
I think it's funny that people make a big deal about the schedule. Every division rival plays the exact same schedule, minus 2 games. Cleveland plays the sames teams Pittsburgh does. But pitt gets New England and San Diego, while Cleveland gets Denver and Buffalo. Just cause Pitt was the division champion.
Another no nothing blogger.Don't you realize there is a rotation of which division you play?Also,That you have to play your division?Also,that you can't compare last years teams to this years? Just more losers making excuses for their teams when they don't make the playoffs:"WAHHHH,we had a tough schedule!!"
Grow up you morons.This is the NFL!!!!
Dwindy1 - Thanks for the post. You have to remember that I tried to go by each division. I thought it would be a pretty boring write up to list the Steelers, Browns, Ravens, and Bengals having the 4 toughest schedules.
What I thought was tough about Seattle's schedule is that they have those two stretches where they play 3 playoff teams. While that doesn't equate to the Steelers and the Colts, it still makes for a tough schedule.
Raven attack - Thanks for the comment. You have to read my whole article. In the intro I said, "1) I tried not to pick a bunch of teams from the same division. I know Cleveland has a tough schedule as well. 14 of their 16 opponents are the same as Pittsburgh’s schedule. What is the point of covering two teams with almost identical schedules? I tried to pick teams from different divisions when breaking down the schedule."
Clevelandbrowns2theSB - Thanks for the post. The thing you must remember as well is that both the Steelers and Browns were 10-6 last year. Those 2 games could be the difference between who wins the division and who doesn't.
Spudco - I didn't know they did a rotation? Really? The exact same teams don't make the playoff every year? Get out of town. I'm glad I have people like you to tell me these things. I'm going to go and redo my whole article now based on this wonderful information I was fortunate enough to have you supply to me. Thanks!!!
spudco...most likely yet another bandwagon Pats fan trying to defend the easy schedule that the Pats got again this year.
But honestly, he is correct about not comparing last year's schedule to this year's...teams have gained and lost players in free agency, either drafted well or poorly, and many will get back players that were injured last year. Also, the teams that were hardly affected by injuries last season (Pats, for example, only had FOUR players on IR for any extended period of time all season long) may not be so lucky this time around.
SO MANY factors come into play each year that the schedule may well be the least important...although I'm sure that teams like the Colts and the Steelers wouldn't mind having as easy a division as the Pats do, year in and year out.
Thebestthereis - Thanks for the post. I like the Levy quote. Indy, NE, SD, and Pittsburgh have been pretty consistent in making the playoffs this decade. Jackonville has been volitale. In the NFC Seattle, NY Giants, and Philly have made it for consecutive years at a stretch.
The big key is having a good QB. Teams that have that tend to do well year after year. Cincy is one team that hasn't been the case for, but otherwise good QB play goes a long way to determing which teams do well consistently.
BahstonSux - Yeah, I don't get that guy. I don't mind people that disagree with me, but that guy was over the top.
The thing I'm getting is that just because the teams were bad last year, we don't know what they are going to do this year. I agree with that. But do we really think New England is not going to be tough? Do we really think Indy is going to crash to the bottom? It could happen, but it probably isn't going to happen.
Schedules that look easy now can become nightmares by November and vice versa. I get that. But I still think we can make educated guesses about the toughness of a schedule. If we can't do that, then it doesn't pay to do predictions either.
good QB play is the most important thing in a winning football team...
more important than all other aspects of the game (i was a QB and QB coach so i know im biased) but consistency makes a good nfl QB and with a good QB play it dont matter who your playing you have a chance to win.
Thebestthereis - I don't think its biased, it's just true. The team with the best record in the NFL since 1992 is the Green Bay Packers. I think Brett Favre starting every game played a pretty big role in that. The best two teams in the 2000s have been the Colts and the Patriots.
Teams like the Ravens and the Bucs go 12-4 one year and 6-10 the next. They are all over the map. While their defense can carry them one season, the next season they can't come through. You need so many things to go right when you don't have a strong QB that it is difficult to win year in and year out.
Nice work street cred, I think it is safe to say that any NFC East team has a difficult schedule since they all play each other and are matched up against the AFC North and the Seahawks (what's the point in including the rest of that division, 49ers and Cards ya got to prove it to me). I think another interesting point to the schedule is where do the bye weeks fall. The Giants had a bye week that landed right in the middle of the season after their London trip, this year its in the fourth week. That extra week of rest towards the end of the season can go a long way when the injuries start to mount.
Go G-men!!
StreetCred, you're right those two games could change who the division winner is. But I don't think the Browns have it easy either, going to Buffalo on a Monday night and at home on a Thursday night for Denver. It will be interesting to see how the season plays out. Again the Browns have 3 division games in the first 4. They could jump ahead or fall behind real fast.
MSBIOL - Thanks for the comments and good points. Some people take things to literally. I obviously could have gone with the 5 toughest schedules in the AFC being 1) Pittsburgh, 2) Indy, 3) Cleveland, 4) Baltimore, 5) Ciny and the 5 toughest in the NFC being 1) Green Bay, 2)Dallas, 3) NYG, 4) Washington. 5) Philly. Now my readers know about 2 divisions.
Everyone gets that the AFC South and NFC East had 3 playoff teams. Everyone gets that they probably won't do that again this year. The point is that if you have 8 playoff teams on the schedule from a year ago the chances are higher that you will be playing a lot of difficult games.
I also like your point about the bye weeks. The bye week could be nice for the NY Giants if they get really injured in trainging camp or to start the season. If they are healthy, it is better to get it later in the year.
Clevelandbrowns2thaSB - The division is definatley where the ballgame is decided at. The 8 teams that won their division in 2007 went a combined 39-9 in their divisional games. The 8 teams that finsihed in last place went 10-38 in their divisional games with no team winning more than 2 games in their division.
It is next to impossible to go 1-5 or 2-4 against your divison and expect to come out on top. If Cleveland is going to win the AFC North it is more important that they improve on their 3-3 divisonal record than what they do out of conference.
Cleveland has a very tough road this year and it will be interesting to see how they do with a better team playing a far tougher schedule.
As a Cowboys fan, I thought they had a rather easy schedule...
And in comparison to last season, they do. What kills them (and every team in the NFC East) is that they play in arguably the most competitive division in the NFL. Longitudinally speaking, it certainly is. The only division with a legitimate argument is the AFC South, and that begins within the last couple of years.
Hey...very nice blog, and good analysis. I have no arguments, and as a bandwagoner Chargers fan (in SoCal, so I root for them due to geography alone), am glad they have a bit of an easier path this year.
Divad - Thanks for the post. You need to reread the schedule. 12 of their 16 opponents won 8 games or more last year. 9 either made the playoffs or won 10 games. It has the potential to be very difficult.
Lisa H - Thank you for the post. I expect SD to have a big year, so long as all their players that have been under the knife this offseason come back at 100%.
street...I am worried about Gates. I like him a lot...actually wrote about him on MSN, and learned all about his injury. I don't think the Chargers took a TE in the draft, but didn't they trade for one earlier? I can't remember. Rivers is already in mini-camp, so that's a good sign.
As a die hard Vikings fan, it's good to hear them possibly having an easier schedule, especially since they actually were 1 or 2 plays away from making the playoffs last year...but, as a die hard Vikings fan, I am worried about all the positive outlooks for them...I mean, they are the Vikes, and consistently "drop the ball" when it counts. Don't get me wrong, I'll root for them year round, but too many people are putting too many eggs in their baskets, I'm afraid......
I agree, your Browns don't have it much easier than my Steelers. I will say that with the additions the Browns made on the O and D lines should more than make up for a more difficult schedule.
Even if Derek blows up, have you been watching Brady? He is definitely ready to play.
I think keeping Brady was the wisest move not made by the Browns.
Nice job. The only complaint the Chargers have is a lot of frequent flyer miles. They have a few trip across country and one trip to London! Oh well, I'll trade the travel for easy opponents any day.
Lame post. This is the NFL where one year to the next all but the top couple teams and bottom couple teams can easily change places, also if you are going to do strength of schedule you have to throw out division games. You say a team should look forward to playing Cinci when they could end up winning that division, just another post full of hot air. Bottom line if your in the AFC you better win 11 games to get to the playoffs.
Also love the fact that Minnesotta gets ranked as an easy schedule, even though by all your previous methods of rating schedules they should have a tough schedule, oh wait your a packer fan, god your pitiful. the packer winning percentage by your research is .40 lower yet they are considered a tougher schedule then the Vikes by 20-25 places keep your day job.
Last edited by stopbeingdumb on May 5th at 7:05 PM.
Ok Streetcred you will have to explain how the Seahawks are brutalized when their opponents this year had a .477 winning percentage last year. Then explain how the Vikings have an easy schedule with opponents having a .551? Even without Favre its harder. Yeah so the Seahawks had one of the easiest schedules ever last year. Does that make a somewhat harder but still easy schedule brutal?
honestly i think the whole AFC south should be in there when you have to play indy jacksonville tennesee or houston thats allready six insanely hard games right there
with as much parody as there is in the NFL these days, it doesn't seem like it's as easy to tell who has the "toughest schedule" as it may seem. The top teams change from year to year quite a bit e.g. New Orleans and Cleveland last year. Niether one of those teams finished as expected. certain teams are more consistently good like Indy and New England but beyond that it's anybody's guess. Will the Vikings emerge this seaosn as expected or will the drop back down? New Orleans; are they as good as '06 may have led us to believe or was that a flsh on the pan so to speak? None of this is certain except to say there will be surprises. I would enture to guess that if we polled the "experts/professionals" now they would be able ot predict better than 2/3s of the division winners maybe not even half. If they could accurately predict half the payoff teams for next season I'd be surprised.
I like the work that you did. Puts it all in perspective. I always thought though, that the teams in the SB, got the tough schedule the following season. Based on your work, I guess that is not entirely the case.
So Pat fans...and we heard from alot of you this past season. Feel free to take next season off, based on your schedule I dont want to hear from you at all.
I like the Steelers playing the tough schedule, that my friends is the only way to gauge where your team is at. Playing cupcakes and patsies...please. Bring on the big boys and lets see where we stand. To take a quote from wrastlin...(and I shudder) To be the MAN..you got to beat the MAN. Nuff said....GO STEELERS.
You have got to be jokin.... Okay I will spot you Indy and the Jags as tough teams from the south. I think the Jags are breathin down Indys neck. But Tenn is on the bubble, just never know which way they are going to go. Playing better last season, but injuries killed them.. But the funniest thing is defending Houston as a TOUGH team.
What are you smoking and is it legal? Pats play in a weak division so you can spot them about 6 wins a season, Seattle plays in a week divison so you can do the same with that division.
AFC South is up for grabs, slight edge goes to the Colts just cause of Peyton in my book, but slight.
AFC West I figure is stil owned by San Diego, but I like the moves the Chiefs have made, I think the story is gettin old in Denver and Mike maybe loosing his touch. The Raiders, still a work in progress.
AFC North tough division if Cleveland plays like they did last year, and the Bengals play anywhere near where they should (offensively at least) then toss in the Steelers, that is a tough one to pick. Could be a toss up between Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Sorry Ravens you have too much retooling to do.
I think the NFC East is the tough division in the NFC, the north is to up and down with Chicago playing well, then they blow a season. Pack was back last year, but where they gonna be with Brett gone? Vikes....love the Defense, love the RB, jury still out on the QB and the WRs.
There is no justice in giving teams the toughest schedule who did not advance in the playoffs or even make them.The competiveness of schedule "SHOULD" be guaged by the SB winner and loser on down to the teams last and first eliminated from the playoffs then on to the losingest teams.It "WAS" that way in days gone by.Small wonder teams like the Patriots have long winning streaks "EVERY YEAR".That powder puff schedule they had last year may have gone unnoticed by some people but "NOT" be me and many others.You may recall in 2005 the Patriots--colts and Chargers did not have hard schedules and ALL three teams went over half way through the season undefeated.
Tough schedules? It's all a matter of relevance. I see Dallas playing Pittsburgh or Greenbay or NY as a clash of tough guys and they will be good games.
On the other hand, teams like the Bears and Lions and Cardinals actually have the toughest schedules because they have to play NFL teams with what little they have...
this is the dumbest article i have ever read. no such thing as an easy schedule in the nfl. the 16-0 patriots lost to a wild card team in the superbowl. what does msn pay these people? it's one stupid article after the next. and God is spelled with a capital G, numbskull.
Lisa H - No the Chargers did not take a tight end in the draft. Even if they did, it would be hard to believe they could have found someone there that could step in and contribute to the level Gates could. In free agency the Chargers only key additions have been OT L.J. Shelton and LB Derek Smith. The Chargers are thinking they have the pieces in place and another year to develop their young players should be enough to get over the top.
Oklahoma - I don't think the Vikings have a cake walk, but as someone that follows that division closer than just anyone I know that you must be happy Minnesota will probably not be seeing snow. Plus they don't have any 8 game stretches where they are seeing playoff team after playoff team from a year ago.
Sixfigure - I agree with that too. I'm not doing a write up of the 5 toughest schedules and doing 4 teams from the same division. That would be stupid as 14 of the 16 games are the same.
Bolt Backer - Excellent point. Traveling to London is hard. They get 3 good breaks from that 1) They play an east coast game at Buffalo the week before. I would be surprised if they even flew back to San Diego after that game. 2) They get a bye the week after London, and 3) They don't lose a home game. All those things make a situation that is not ideal better.
Claguems - I agree. One thing to keep in mind is that of the 12 teams that made the playoffs in 2006, 6 of the 12 teams made it again in 2007. Of the 6 new teams Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Green Bay were all 8-8 or better. That means only 2 teams that made the playoffs last year had losing records the year before. While I agree that there is volatility in the NFL, I don't think it is quite to the degree that some people posting are making it out to be.
Stopbeingdumb - My question to you would be why are you on this blog? Why are you reading about the NFL in May if not of it matters anyway? Do you enjoy wasting your time?
Dashens - Thanks for the post. I agree the Pats go 16-0 and then get the easiest schedule in the NFL.
Pruettjohn - Here is the thing. The Seahawks opponents averaged 7.6 wins and the Vikings opponents without Favre averaged 8.2 wins. That is hal####ame difference which is insignifigant in the whole scheme of things. Plus the Seahawks have to play Washington, Dallas, and New England from Week 12-14 while the Vikings are playing the likes of Chicago, Detroit, and Atlanta. I think the NFC West is improving vs. the NFC North which is in flux. I think the NFC East is tougher than the NFC South. I also think that outweighs playing the AFC South vs the AFC East. When you also consider no winter games for the Vikings this year, it is a big positive, where I think the Seahawks have a tougher road.
Texasfight28 - Thanks for the post. I keep telling the crowd from the AFC North that is posting that. AFC South has a tough schedule. I didn't want to write about every team and when 14 of the 16 games are the same it gets redundant. I think as far as divisions go, the only division that has a tougher road than the AFC South is the AFC North.
SurferDave79 - I agree with you, but if you aren't going to look to last year at all how do you predict anything? You look at last year, what they added, what they subtracted, and who they play and try to come up with guesses. People are acting like if I posted a team has a tough schedule they are 6-10 bound and if they are on the easier part they will win 14 games. That couldn't be further from the truth.
Steelerjohn - If the Steelers can stay healthy, get Willie Parker back at 100% and do well in the division they should make the playoffs and be served well for playing all those tough games.
The other stuff you typed was solid, but I will defend Houston as a tough team. They were 8-8 playing in a division with 3 playoff teams. They were 7-3 outside the division. Johnson, Green, and Schaub all missed a lot of time. Those were their 3 biggest offensive weapons. If they can stay healthy this year they may be able to pass Tennessee and get into contention for a wild card spot.
Fleetstream - Thanks for the post. In a perfect world every team would play everyone like the NBA and MLB. Since a 31 game schedule isn't realistic, I think this is the best possible way to do it. Your schedule has 14 of 16 games identical games to your division opponents. The last place team gets 2 games that should be easier than everyone of their opponents. I think given the system, it is probably as fair as is possible.
Evanspeed - You aren't the first person that thought I was an #### and I am quite certain you won't be the last. FYI I get paid $0.00 from Foxsports.com and write this nonsense for free. If you ever decide to write a blog let me know as I would be very interested to see what you were able to write.
thanks cred but houtson is not as much of a cakewalk as people think 8-8 last season while elading the leaguein players on tthe IR we we 2 games with out Andrejohnson 8-2 Ahman green barely played all year matt schuab missed half the season duante robinson almost the whole thing nnext year the texans wil go to the playoffs no doubt
Texasfight281 - I think I put the response under Steeler John instead of you, but I made the same point. Here is what I said, "I will defend Houston as a tough team. They were 8-8 playing in a division with 3 playoff teams. They were 7-3 outside the division. Johnson, Green, and Schaub all missed a lot of time. Those were their 3 biggest offensive weapons. If they can stay healthy this year they may be able to pass Tennessee and get into contention for a wild card spot."
If they can stay healthy this year and can rank higher than 22nd in the NFL in rushing they will have an excellent shot to be in playoff contention.
Still I think the NFC East is slightly tougher seeing you have the Super Bowl Champ, the NFC #1 seed, a young Washington team that is rising, and Philly. Philly signed the best free agent this season (Samuel), added Jackson in the draft, and McNabb is another year removed from knee surgery. That will be a brutal division as well.
"Divad - Thanks for the post. You need to reread the schedule. 12 of their 16 opponents won 8 games or more last year. 9 either made the playoffs or won 10 games. It has the potential to be very difficult."
I'm quite familiar with the schedule, and there are several things worth mentioning given your response to my post.
Of those 12 games that the 'Boys will play against 8 win teams, 6 of them reside in the NFC East. That means that 6 of the remaining 10 games are against 8 win teams. That means they play 4 teams with 9 or more losses. Statistically speaking, that sounds like a pretty average schedule to me.
Those playoff games (8 of them, 4 of which come from their own division) include the Packers, Redskins (x2), Buccaneers, Giants (x2), Seahawks, and Steelers. The Bucs and Seahawks were fortunate to play in and win extremely weak divisions. The Packers are losing you know who, and I'm willing to bet their performance will show it. The numbers you provide are a bit misleading.
Also, let's consider that they're playing this year's version of the teams that were in the playoffs last year. There's more turnaround in the NFL Playoffs than any other major American sports league. As you articulately state, their schedule has the potential to be very difficult, but that isn't unlike any other team in the NFL... and it has nothing to do with last year's outcome.
Your blogs are very enjoyable. Keep up the good work. :)
Divadisvet - Thanks for the post. No doubt there is turnaround and some of the teams will not be as good as in 2007. Here's my response to your post.
Saying that the Cowboys have an easy schedule if you take out the 6 divisional games is like saying that Choclate Cake is a healthy food if you take the frosting and sugar away from the flour, milk, and eggs.
I agree that Cincy, Baltimore, San Fran, and St Louis should be very easy games. Green Bay should be a tough game, as they have a lot of good young players coming back. Just not as tough without #4. Seattle, Arizona, and Tampa Bay have the potential to be tough. But NYG, Philly, Washington, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland are 8 games that should be very tough.
I think all things considered, when you compare the draw that Dallas got, while it isn't as tough as what Indy or Pittsburgh received it looks a lot closer to that than say NE or SD. No NFL game is a guaranteed win and Dallas has more than their share of obstacles in 2008.
I agree with spudco, you no knuthing blogger, you took away 1 hour of my tv time by writing this post, know I know longer need to watch ESPN and listen to all thet gibberish to learn what you just pointed out! and stopbeingdumb has a point, (on top of his head) what does strenght of schedule mean 1 yaar later, other that a ruler as to which the schedule makers use for making fair matchups...which didnt happenn anyway. I am sick of reading your posts, and cant wait until the next one to see what kind of gibberish you comeup with again!
OH and the AFC norris got screwwed this year!
fleetstream was right about 2005, but if I remember right, the SB winner was a wild card, and was the first to win 3 road games on the way to winning the Super Bowl. And last year, the New York football Giants did the same thing. Home field and season records are only worth looking at for teh schedule makers. as soon as the playoffs start they don't much matter!
Netsteeler - I knew I could count on your support, lol. I think you were the one that told me you can't believe I don't tell some of these people off, so you must have liked my response on that.
I'm real interested to see how the Steelers and Browns handle that schedule. I still think they make the playoffs because they have a good QB and a good team, but they are definitely going to lose some games. I don't see the AFC North winner doing much better than 10 or 11 wins.
Vicksucks - Atlanta should be an easier win. Tennessee I thought was going to be awful last season too and they won 10 games in arguably the toughest division in the NFL. Minnesota, Seattle, and NO should all win 8-11 games this season depending on how things go.
I think you have to remember that the NFL salary cap is over $100 million dollars. Common sense would say that $100 million in talent should be able to win a game on any Sunday. I think we see that play out week in and week out.
I never intended to take out the divisional games. In fact, I was noting that the presence of the NFC East divisional games are what make their schedule difficult year in and year out. Observe my original post:
"As a Cowboys fan, I thought they had a rather easy schedule...
And in comparison to last season, they do. What kills them (and every team in the NFC East) is that they play in arguably the most competitive division in the NFL. Longitudinally speaking, it certainly is. The only division with a legitimate argument is the AFC South, and that begins within the last couple of years."
In your last response, you adequately verify my point by stating that 6 of the 8 "very tough" games come from the NFC East... yet it still feels like we're disagreeing.
Divadisvet - What I think you are saying is that you expect the NFC East to be tough every year, so when you looked at the other 10 games they played you were thinking it looked pretty good.
I'm still not quite seeing how you think it was easier than last season. While NE was tough, the other 3 AFC teams were not very good. The Rams, Panthers, Lions, Bears, and Vikings were pretty average. Excluding the division the Boys played 2 playoff teams (NE & GB), which is the minimum they had too under the schedule format.
I still think Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and Seattle all pose challenges. I think Dallas will have to show up and play well to win those games.
When you say that you looked at the schedule and thought they had it rather easy, I don't think I agree with that. As I said, it isn't what Pittsburgh and Indy have, but when you take a look at other teams the Cowboys will have to play at an elite level against solid competition to win 13 games in 2008.
Well let's consider last year's schedule like we're considering this years schedule - based on the previous year:
The Bears were the returning NFC Champions, the Rams and Panthers were both darkhorse playoff teams as judged by many 'experts' (and ended up being among the most disappointing in the league last year), the Jets were a 10 win AFC Playoff team, nobody expected the Dolphins to win only 1 game all season... and New England WAS on their schedule last year. Also, there was no precedent set for Cowboys fans to judge how well the 'Boys could compete. They were led by a relatively unproven quarterback, a new head coach that followed the exit of an all-time legend, and concerns with injuries and age regarding key players. Of all of those things, only the age concern remains.
Trust me. It looks better this year than it did last year at this time. It probably won't end up that way, but for now it's something to smile about.
