I have maintained that the NFL is the best way to build your team into an NFL Champion. Teams year after year throw around dollars foolishly and waste draft picks in an attempt for a quick fix. Rarely does that type of strategy work.
Some teams definitely benefited from the opening weekend of free agency. Here would be my winners and losers:
5 Winners
1) Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles demonstrated why year in and year out they are among the best franchises in the NFL. Not only were they able to land the most sought after free agency, but also they were able to add a player that should succeed in their system. While Samuel did play in a 3-4 and will be switching to a 4-3, both teams are aggressive when it comes to blitzing. He will be asked to do the same things he did in New England. The other thing I like about the move is that it makes them stronger against a rival. The Dallas Cowboys have a lot of weapons in the passing game. Green Bay has a lot of good wide receivers. The Saints have a strong passing offense. This move allows the Eagles to either keep Shepherd, Brown, and Samuel to form a terrific cornerback core and will allow them to cover those passing offenses. It also gives them the flexibility to trade Shepherd and acquire additional draft picks. The temptation could have been to throw a lot of money at Berrian or another underachieving wide receiver in a useless attempt to upgrade the offense. The Eagles have now significantly improved their defense and can concentrate their high picks in the draft to improve the skill positions on offense. I think the Eagles started the free agency season out with a ####.
2) Cleveland Browns – Normally I am not in favor of teams giving away their draft to acquire players through trades. However, considering the Browns don’t have a first round pick this year anyway they didn’t have a lot of flexibility to dominate this draft anyway. What they did do is improve their defensive line with younger players. Corey Williams will be 28 years old when the season starts. Shaun Rogers will be 29 years old. Stallworth will be 28 years old in November. While they probably overpaid for his services only $10 million of his $35 million contract was guaranteed. That is pretty good seeing Berrian received $16 million guaranteed. Derek Anderson is still young. Keeping him was huge in making sure they maintain a positive quarterback situation. These players should be relevant for years to come. The Browns have been building their team with high draft picks for a number of years. It was time to try to make a splash in free agency. While they were aggressive they weren’t stupid about it. They addressed a lot of need positions with solid players. They did it be acquiring seasoned players but not players in the twilight of their career. If these guys can fit into Cleveland’s system the Browns may have gone a long way to making themselves a contender in the AFC North.
3) New Orleans Saints – The Saints hit the ground running in free agency to improve their defense. They acquired Jonathan Vilma for a conditional pick in the 2009 draft. While he was injured he also had been struggling because he didn’t fit into the 3-4 scheme the Jets play. If he can remerge as the same player that was the NFL Rookie of the Year in 2005 and Pro Bowl Alternate in 2006 the Saints got a steal. Randall #### was a nice signing for 17.6 million over 4 years. While he is not Samuel he should upgrade the pathetic Saints secondary. They signed Rodney McCray who will be 27 years old this year and should help their defensive line. They were able to retain Devery Henderson, which will help their offense. They were also able to retain LB Mark Simoneau and DT Brian Young which helps their defense. I think the Saints did a lot better by signing players that will fit into their system than they did in 2007. The Saints went a long way to improving their defense which gave up too many big plays last season.
4) New York Giants – People will be surprised that I have the Giants here considering they lost 3 players on their defense. The reason I liked what the Giants did is they didn’t fall into the trap of trying to overpay to keep their own players. Wilson signed a 6 year $39 million contract. Mitchell signed a 5 year $17 million contract. Torbor signed with Miami. The Giants would have liked to keep those players but it would have cost them too much to do so. While all those players made key plays in the Super Bowl run the heart of the defense was the front 4. That is still there. By not hitting the panic button Reese has given his club a chance to improve through the draft. His vision paid off last season and I expect him to do more of the same this season. While it may hurt his team in the short run it won’t hurt him as much as it will the Raiders who severely overpaid for Wilson’s services.
5) Green Bay Packers – Here is why I put the Packers on the list. They handled the Corey Williams situation about as well as anyone could. The Packers were loaded with depth at defensive tackle. They drafted Harrell in the first round last season. They have Pickett and Jolly. Jenkins plays on the inside in passing situations. They had no room for Corey Williams. Yet they applied the franchise tag and were able to get a 2nd round pick for a guy they selected in the 6th round in 2004. Not a bad return on that investment. The Packers now have a lot of flexibility. If there is a player they really want in the draft they can trade up and get that player without sacrificing their entire draft. They can trade down and acquire additional picks. To be able to get a 2nd round pick for a guy that no longer fit in their plans was a great way to open the free agency weekend. The Packers are never a big player in free agency anyway. Thompson has to be ecstatic to add a 2nd round pick to his draft arsenal.
5 Losers
1) New England Patriots – I know the Patriot way. We don’t Rebuild we just Reload. They don’t overpay for people. But consider what they have lost. Samuel was signed by the Eagles and #### was signed by the Saints. That is a huge blow to their secondary. They also may lose Eugene Wilson to the Titans. At least they still have 35-year-old Rodney Harrison. They were able to resign Bruschi, but had to release Colvin. They have suffered a lot of losses on defense. They have failed to get any younger at linebacker and have had their secondary blown up. Then you have to look at the offense. Faulk is allegedly getting high and smoking weed everyday. Stallworth was signed by the Browns. Moss has not yet resigned. There are reports he is mad at the Patriots and that the negotiations have hit a snag. He has been rumored to go everywhere from Dallas to Green Bay to Denver. If they lose both Stallworth and Moss they are basically in the same situation they were entering last season with linebackers that are now 2 years older. We’ll see how Welker fares without those other two drawing coverage. The Patriots are the best in the league at allowing players to walk that they don’t believe are worth the money they are asking for. That philosophy will be tested as much as ever this offseason. They have lost a lot of talent. While the Patriots are still the favorite to win the AFC East they will probably find it much harder to win with the ease they showed in 2007.
2) New York Jets – A lot of people have the Jets in the winner column. I disagree. Faneca agreed Saturday on a five-year, $40 million contract, with $21 million in guaranteed money. That is a lot of money for a guy that will be 32 in September. While it may upgrade them in the short term the cap consequence could be enormous. He is great in run blocking but is average in pass protection. They probably could have kept Pete Kendall around last year for far less money. It just doesn’t make sense for that much money. The Kris Jenkins trade was stupid. The Jets gave up a 3rd and 5th round pick to the Panthers for a guy that has missed the 2004 and 2005 seasons. While he has been healthy in 2006 and 2007 he hasn’t been the same player he was in 2002 and 2003. The Jets then decided that they needed to give Jenkins a raise to the tune of a five-year contract worth $35 million, including $20 million in guaranteed money. That’s a big gamble for a 29-year old player with that injury history. We’ll see if the $41 million the Jets gave in guaranteed contracts actually pays off beyond 2008 or 2009.
3) Oakland Raiders – Another team that just doesn’t get it. Tommy Kelly is coming off reconstructive knee surgery. That didn’t stop the Raiders from giving him $50 million that guarantees Kelly more than $18 million. He was on the team last year that was last in the league in rushing yards per attempt and 31st in rushing yards allowed. I wouldn’t have signed him to that had he been healthy last season. He is definitely not worthy of being the NFL’s highest paid defensive tackle. Then they signed safety Gibril Wilson to a $39 dollar contract. I don’t see the Raiders defense being any better in 2008 with these two moves and they broke the bank to do it. The only smart thing the Raiders did this offseason was allowing Joey Porter to walk and not give him the $35 million the Jaguars spent on him. As long as Al Davis continues to make moves like this the Commitment to Excellence will only be a slogan.
4) San Francisco 49ers – I liked the signing of Isaac Bruce. It gives the 49ers a veteran presence at WR and someone that is familiar with the Mike Martz system. Adding DeShaun Foster was a solid move. He is good insurance for Gore. But they destroyed all the good things they did by signing a Bengal defender. The six-year, $45 million deal that the 49ers signed with Justin Smith reportedly includes $20 million guaranteed. That is a waste of salary cap space. Justin Smith was an above average player on a bad defense. He has only 43.5 sacks in 7 seasons. His career high is 8.5 sacks his rookie year. He had 2 sacks in 16 games last season. He is a 4-3 end that is switching to a 3-4. That might not translate, although you would think he could get more than 2 sacks. I can’t see that investment paying off. It appears the 49ers have learned nothing from their 2007 spending spree that did little to bring more wins to the table. The 49ers would have been well served to invest in other areas.
5) Minnesota Vikings – The Bears did good to concentrate their free agency dollars on Briggs and not Berrian. The Vikings would have been wise to do the same thing. The deal that Berrian signed is worth $42 million with $16 million in guaranteed money, which makes him the fourth-highest paid receiver in the league. He is hardly the 4th best receiver in the league. This is a guy that had 71 receptions for 951 yards and 5 touchdowns playing with shaky QB play. The problem is the Vikings don’t have a quarterback that will be able to take advantage of his speed with downfield throws. Furthermore, he drops the ball too much. I don’t think the Vikings will get what they hoped out of this investment. The loss will hurt the Bears in that they don’t have any proven receiving talent, but it won’t help the Vikings to waste all that cap space on a receiver that has never had 1,000 yards in a season. Then the Vikings went and signed safety Madieu Williams $33 million, including slightly less than $13 million in guaranteed money. He played on the vaunted Cincinnati pass defense last season. He had 2 interceptions last season and has 9 in his 4-year career. I think it is safe to say they could have found a cheaper alternative in the draft.
That’s my wrap up of the opening weekend in free agency. There are still a lot more developments to come, mainly what is to become of Randy Moss and will Brett Favre decide to hang it up after a 17 year NFL Hall of Fame career. There is never a dull moment in the NFL. To keep up with all the developments make sure you check out The Fantasy Football Maniaxs for additional articles by myself and other talented writers:
Hey StreetCred, as a Panthers fan I LOVED that we fleeced the Jets out of a third and fifth round pick and gave them a DT that's on the downside of his career. Now if we can find a power RB in the draft and depth at DE and O-line it'll be all good.
streetcred,
Great post and I couldn't agree more. The eagles D will be very tough to throw against this season. Thx for giving my Saints some love as well. I think they made some great moves so far. I still feel we need to get another WR to compliment Colston but resigning a speedy Devery(who can catch only the long ball) allows us to stretch the field. I just put a post up of the Saints offseason moves. If you get a chance stop on in and take a look.
Jon 464 - Thanks for the post. I think the Panthers did very well in that deal as well. I'm hoping Williams breaks out now that Foster is gone. They do need to upgrade the power running game as that doesn't seem to be Williams strength.
gambi - Thanks for the post. I don't know if you want me giving your squad love. I predicted the Saints losing to the Pats in the Super Bowl last offseason. That didn't come to fruition.
I like your reasons for Winners & Losers. Green Bay suprised me a bit as well as S.F. but... different strokes as they say. The Saints did make some nice moves, thou losing Jeff Faine hurt. But the Bucs over-paid big & I like the guy. Missing out on both top free agent CB & LB made me question the moves a bit thou. If nothing else I will tip my hat to the addition of depth on the D side & Vilma was a STEAL. Ok now for my heartbreaking prediction... N.E. only does average next season & squeaks into the playoffs via wildcard spot, only to lose in the 1st round. But StreetCred will keep us up to date until this happens. Kudos on the Blog.
Saint Wolf - Thanks fo the comments. I think when free agency is all said and done the Packers will not be one of the big winners. Rarely does a Ted Thompson team do that. Like I said though given that they love the draft so much they have to be doing cartwheels over getting a 2nd round pick. Given his history in the 2nd and 3rd round that could bode well for the Packers.
I have a question for you. If the Patriots are going to get in as a wildcard who are you predicting wins the division. Jets? Fins? Bills? I think the Patriots will win the division next season but probably do so with 11 to 12 victories. I do think if the Jags, Colts, and Chargers play their cards right they may be able to beat the Pats in the playoffs.
Hey Cred, gotta play a little devils advocate on ya. I think you have to look at who the Williams and Berrian replaced on the purple. Troy Williamson was a definite 1st round bust in Minny, and made way too much cash being a 7th overall selection. Once we shipped him out (thanks Tice), Berrian looks like the second coming of Chris Carter in comparison. Williams is so-far scheduled to replace Dwight Smith, and all reports I've read is a better cover safety (which is what we need). I don't put much stock in it, but he also posted is best numbers when Frazier was the cinci d-coordinator, and has a seasoned veteren in Darren Sharper to get him the right spot. Did we over-pay for the two of them, sure, but we needed a downfield threat, and we only had one safety on the depth chart, so we filled some needs, and hopefully we can get a d-end and go to the draft looking for some needed depth rather than looking to plug in rookies.
ScramblinFran, one quick comment to clear up. Tice actually did not want Williamson but wanted Merriman and lobbied for him hard. But he was overruled. As for the Vikes, I am a big fan and am glad to see them getting some good players. It does seem to me that they are overpaying however, and might pay for that in the near future. This must be due to a realization that the team has a number of key veterans at the end of their careers or at least on the downside. The time to strike is now. I am anything but a fan of Chilly's, however, and thoroughly doubt his ability to get this team over the hump. But bring in enough talent and he won't matter so much. The team still needs a way to get a pass rush.
Yeah the Justin Smith signing ticks me off. I like bringing in guys like Foster and Bruce on the cheap but $20 million guaranteed for Justin Smith is a waste. Could have very easily found our solution at DE in the draft.
One thing you didn't mention was the 49ers' extending Alex Smith's contract through 2010. They say it was to give him confidence. Blows me away they would give this guy the extension after he has proven nothing to deserve the money he is getting. Should have just let him finish out this year and let him become a free agent. At least he would have had that motivation of playing for another contract. If he played great this year we would have ended up re-signing him for a lot more than the extension is giving him, but at least he would have earned it.
Stupid, stupid moves. No wonder why this franchise is perenially in the toilet.
Agreed on the Browns being a winner. They have made some great moves. They have to be the favorite in the AFC North and who knows with the Patriots possibly sliding back to the pack a little but, maybe the Browns can challenge in the AFC?
The Packer fans here DO NOT agree with your accessment. They are worried about the d-line rotation and keeping the d-line fresh. One less proven QB rusher will not help. Why draft a d-lineman when they had a proven QB rusher? Tavarius Jackson started with 3 WRs that he never played with and 1 Troy Williamson. His completions increased near the end of the season after he got experience with these new WRs. Minus Williamson's drops this year would increase any QB's percentage; please know what you are talking about
Scramblinfan - Thanks for the post. I agree that Berrian is an upgrade over what the Vikes had. But when the Vikes picked up Chris Carter they paid $100 for the waiver fee, not $16 million guaranteed. I think if you look at the teams that year in and year out are overpaying for questionable free agents, ie Washingtion and San Fran it produces mixed results.
danymyte - Thanks for the post. Good points. The good thing for the Vikes is that the 49ers outbid the Vikes for Justin Smith otherwise they could have paid $20 million guaranteed to bring in a guy whose career high is 8.5 sacks in his rookie year.
Ninerfan - Thanks for the post. Imagine if the 49ers hadn't traded there pick last year. Could have picked up Golston or a nice pass rusher with the 7th pick. Teams that do not value the draft not only pay for it by overpaying pricey free agents, but also by having other teams draft good players for them. It becomes a cycle. As for the Browns, I think they have a great shot at the playoffs, but will need to take their licks there first.
VikesfaninWI - Thanks for the post. I'm sure there are some Packer fans that are worried. They still have Jenkins, Jolly, Harrell, Pickett, Kampman, and KGB. I think their rotation is secure. Losing a guy with 7 sacks each of the last 2 seasons from the DT spot hurts. Had they signed him to the same contract the Browns did they would have been better in 08 at the expense of possibly losing 3 free agents on the defensive line in 09. This will allow them the flexability to keep the core of that line in tact. Corey Williams is going to have to prove he can carry a defensive line not excel while playing next to two great pass rushers in KGB and Kampan.
As for Jackson. Not having Williamson's 11 drops will help out his completion percentage. Remember Bears fans were frustrated with Berrians drops too. We'll see if $16 million fixes that.
I don't believe I said that Jackson had a bad completion percentage. What I did say is he didn't have the strongest arm to take advantage of Berrian's speed. Grossman was better at throwing that deep ball and when Griese came in that hurt Berrian's production. It remains to be seen if Jackson has the ability to take advantage of Berrian's asset, which is the deep ball, something Jackson hasn't proven he can throw with consistency.
i have to disagree with a few things. i think the vikings have addressed the needs that they needed to in FA...the packers got rid of a DT and you put them on the winners list? i understand that they dont need the DT, and it was a good move, but they havent signed anyone substantial yet to improve the team. I do agree that the pats have lost a lot though. they lost pretty much their whole secondary and a few offensive pieces...i guess we will have to wait and see. in my opinion though, the vikings should be on the winner side of this, not the loser. they had to put extra money in to get the people to fill the spots they needed.
With Young retired and Douglas trying the FA market, the 49ers will have lost both of their starting DE's from last years team. With such a huge need, they went out and got the best DE in the market. Considering some of the other moves they made, which you actualy like, I'm not sure how this makes them one of the biggest losers. I know you think they overpaid, but Smith made 8.6 million last year. As a result, 45 million for 6 years appears to be his market value. They may have been better off with more of a pass rush specialist but they still ended up with a solid anchor for the Dline for years to come.
Streetcred, If you think the 49ers don't value their draft picks, then you haven't paid too close attention to their past draft history. They've had 18 picks, including 4 in the first round, in the last two drafts. Obviously, trading this years 1st round pick for the Pats 1st round pick last year was a bad move, but everyone thought the pick would be closer to 17 then 7, and they felt that Staley was one of the top 20 prospects in the draft last year. Plus, they still have a pick in the 1st round because they traded their 2nd round pick to Indy last year for their 1st round pick this year. Nolan's plan is to fill 80% of the roster with draft picks. Since draft picks don't command as much salary, it leaves them with a lot of cap room to go after big name free agents. It remains to be seen if that stratagy works, but having a lot of draft picks is an intregal part to the plan.
sportsnut21 - I agree the Vikings filled some needs. But they paid too much for them. I didn't say the Packers were going to dominate free agency.
I think teams are stupid for signing some of these players to huge contracts in an attmept for a quick fix. I encourage you to read my previous article Buyer Beware. I think you will understand where I was coming from with that.
urnext - I think signing a guy that was the leader of a defense and had 2 sacks for $20 mil guaranteed was an awful decision. It is something they will pay for in the future. I don't think it gives them a good pass rush next season. We'll see how that works.
As for not valuing the draft comment. Probably a little harse for a team that drafted the NFL Defensive rookie of the year. All I was trying to point out is that they tried to win last year at all cost. Active in free agency. Trading next years first pick. Staley was good, but they could get a much better player with the 7th pick.
The good GMs have a healthy balance of staying in the moment, but preparing for the future. I don't think the 49ers did that last season and it cost them. Furthermore, they don't appear to have learned, otherwise they wouldn't have signed Smith. Until they figure out what they are doing at the QB position they will continue to struggle no matter how much money they try to throw at the problem.
I'm replacing MN with Green Bay on the losers side. MN has a couple good signings, cap limits be damned. Taking the best Bear receiver is like adding two players.
Favre is gone, maybe, so each team has a shot this year. That's one more point for each NFC North team.
Green Bay fans can't be too postivie this early.
streetcred,
Anyone can criticize a deal in hindsight. No one had any idea that the pick would be at #7. Last year they picked #12. Since they felt they would be better they believed the traded pick would be in the 15-20 range. If you have Staley rated as a top 20 prospect, and they did, you make the trade. Plus, they got back a 1st round pick in the trade with Indy. So in a nutshell, they traded up last year, 44 to 28, in exchange for moving down this year, 7 to 29. Clearly not a good deal but hardly a back breaker. Sometimes when you roll the dice it works and other times it doesn't.
As for the FA signings. The 49ers have had more cap space the last two years, then just about every other team. These aren't cell phone minutes. You can't roll them over to next year. Plus, most of their contracts are front loaded. If Smith works out they will have a quality DE in years 4-6 at 6 mil, while most teams will be paying 8-10 mil. If it doesn't work out, they can cut him after year three, since only 20 mil is garaunteed, and try again. Also, their big FA signings last year, Clements and Lewis, worked out. It's their offense that stinks.
I live in Chicago, but am originally from Wisconsin. I am a disgruntled Green Bay Packer fan that now loves the Jets. My favorite sports are Football, Basketball, and Baseball. Hockey and soccer are at the bottom of my list. I would rather watch the Spelling Bee than either of those sports. My favorite athletes of all time are Brett Favre and Michael Jordan. While I like debating many sports, NFL Football is by far my favorite topic to discuss.
In addition to this blog I am also a writer for the Fantasy Football Maniaxs. It is quite an honor to be writing with a group of knowledgeable football fanatics. The address is http://www.fa ntasyfootball maniaxs.com. I hope you enjoy the blog.
