So it is finally here.  The 8-0 New England Patriots take on the 7-0 Indianapolis Colts in what is probably the best regular season match up of all time.  Never in the history of the NFL have two teams met this late in the season with perfect records.  To appreciate how truly dominant these teams have been in 2007 let’s take a look at the numbers:

New England Patriots (8-0) – The New England Patriots have been truly remarkable.  They have outscored their opponents 331 to 127 or by an average of 25.5 points per game.  The 204-point margin of victory is more points than all but two teams have scored on the entire season.  They rank first in total yards per game with 439.5 yards per game.  They rank first in passing yards at 303.8 yards per game.  They rank 8th in rushing yards at 135.8 yards per game. This despite Maroney being hurt for much of the season.  They have gained 400 yards or more of total offense in every game this season.  Tom Brady has 30 touchdown passes against 2 interceptions.  They have scored over 40 points in 3 straight games.  The last team to do that was the 2004 Indianapolis Colts.  Furthermore, they rank 3rd in total defense giving up 268.5 yards per game.  This despite Rodney Harrison missing the first 4 games of the season and Seymour missing the first 7 games.  Whether you are a Patriots fan or root against the Patriots with religious like passion we are definitely watching a historical start to a season.  This will be the game that determines where their entire regular season ranks in NFL history.  If they were able to beat the Colts as convincingly as they have beat their other opponents they will probably be considered the best team in NFL history; assuming they lose one game or less and win the Super Bowl.  If they lose the game convincingly people will argue the Patriots start is a fraud, the result of a division that stands at (4-19).   A division that has one win outside of the division, Buffalo over Baltimore.  A great team running up the score on nobodies.  Just not an all time great team.  That is what is at stake for the Patriots this week. 

Indianapolis Colts (7-0) – When you consider what the Colts have accomplished this season, it is truly amazing that people are not talking about their season.  By beating Carolina 31-7 on Sunday they became the first team since the 1929-1931 Green Bay Packers to begin three consecutive seasons (7-0).  This is by far the best team the Colts have had in the Peyton Manning era.  The offense is explosive as ever, averaging 399.0 yards per game.  They rank 5th in rushing, with 140.3 yards per game.  They rank 6th in passing at 257.8 yards per game.  Amazingly they have done that with Marvin Harrison ####ed up and Joseph Addai missing time.  That isn’t what makes this team so special.  We are used to the Colts putting up gaudy offensive numbers, regardless of Manning’s weapons.  What we aren’t used to is a 4th ranked defense giving up only 272.9 yards per game.  What we are not used to is a defense that surrenders only 14.6 ppg.  The Colts have outscored the opposition 224 to 102, or by 17.4 points per game.  This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the defense with many starters lost to injury or free agency.  They have replaced those departures and are a stronger unit than the team that won it all in 2006.  The argument was always that if Peyton Manning ever had a defense, the Colts would be unbeatable.  We are getting to see that this season.  Furthermore, they are doing this in a division that has two other teams at (5-2).  The Colts opponents have a (27-23) record on the season.  The Patriots meanwhile have played opponents with a (24-34) record.  When you consider the Colts fast start and the competition it has come against, I couldn’t fault a Colt’s fan for feeling that the Colts have the better team.  In any other season we are obsessed with the Colts historic start.  I cannot remember two teams that have been this dominant playing in the same season in the same conference.  We are witnessing history unfold before are eyes.  This will truly be an all-time great regular season game. 

Before we look at this matchup, let’s take a look at some other memorable regular season match ups that have been of this magnitude.  The criteria for making the list was 1) Teams could not be in the same division, but had to be in the same conference, and 2) Teams had to meet each other in the playoffs later that season with the winner winning the Super Bowl. 

1990 – New York Giants (10-1) at San Francisco 49ers (10-1) – This was the closest we got to watching two unbeaten teams this late in the season.  The 49ers and Giants both started the season (10-0) and lost the week before this match up.  The 49ers featured the 8th ranked scoring offense and finished 2nd in points allowed.  The Giants were a pedestrian 15th in points scored, but featured the number one defense in points allowed and were 2nd in yards allowed.  The two teams played a low scoring game that would end with 49er victory by the score of 7-3.  The two teams would meet again in the NFC Championship Game, with the Giants prevailing 15-13.  The Giants would go on to beat the Bills in the Super Bowl. 

1994 – Dallas Cowboys (8-1) at San Francisco 49ers (7-2) – This was a monumental game in the 49ers Super Bowl run.  Having lost the last 2 championship games to Dallas, the 49ers went on a defensive spending spree that was highlighted with the signing of Prime Time.  The 49ers would lead the league in scoring that season and finished 6th in points allowed.  The Cowboys were 2nd and 3rd.   The 49ers got the better of that game 21-14, and finished the season one game ahead of the Cowboys.  The 49ers would also win the rematch in the playoffs 38-28.  They would go on to destroy the Chargers in the Super Bowl. 

1995 – Green Bay Packers (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (4-1) – The Packers had lost two blowouts to the Cowboys in the playoffs in Dallas the last two seasons.  The Packers were hoping to win this game to help them get that playoff game in Lambeau.  The Packers featured a team that would finish the season 6th in points scored and 4th in points allowed.  The Cowboys finished 3rd in both categories.  The Cowboys would take this game 34-24.  The Packers finished the season 11-5 to Dallas’s 12-4.  That led to a rematch in the NFC Championship Game in Dallas, which was also won by Dallas 38-27.  The Cowboys would go on to beat the Steelers in the Super Bowl capturing their 3rd title in 4 years. 

1996 – San Francisco 49ers (4-1) at Green Bay Packers (5-1)  – This was a huge Monday night game.  The Packers were in the mist of a historic start and expectations were sky- high coming off the 1995 season.  The two teams had met in the playoffs the year before with the Packers prevailing at Candlestick 27-17.  The Cowboys, Packers, and 49ers were considered the favorites that year to come out of the NFC.  The Packers finished the season ranked 1st in both points scored and allowed.  The 49ers finished 3rd and 5th.  The Packers would win this game in OT 23-20.  The Packers would go on to finish 13-3 and the 49ers would go on to finish 12-4.  They would meet in the 2nd round that year with the Packers prevailing 35-14 on route to their first Super Bowl since the Lombardi era. 

2004 New England (6-0) at Pittsburgh (5-1) – These two familiar foes would face off in an epic regular season contest.  The Patriots were the defending Super Bowl Champions and on an 18 game regular season winning streak, (21 counting playoffs).  The Steelers had inserted a young Big Ben into the lineup and were in the process of something great.  The Steelers would get the better of this matchup 34-20 and would finish the season 15-1.  The Patriots didn’t do too badly themselves, finishing 14-2.  The Steelers ranked 11th in points scored, but were 1st in points allowed.  The Patriots were 4th and 2nd.  The Patriots would get the better of the Steelers in the title game winning 41-27.  They would go on to capture their 3rd Super Bowl in 4 years.

2006 – Indianapolis  (7-0) at New England (6-1)  - The matchup in Foxboro last year wasn’t too shabby.  The Colts would beat the Patriots 27-20.  Both teams finished the season 12-4, but neither received a first round bye.  Both teams would win their home playoff game, win a road playoff game, and would meet again in Indy.  The Colts were 3rd in scoring last season, but ranked 23rd in points allowed.  The Patriots had the better balance finishing 7th in points scored and 2nd in points allowed.  The teams would play a classic 38-34 game with the Colts going on to beat the Bears in the Super Bowl. 

We’ve had plenty of other instances of teams meeting in the regular season and later in the postseason.  The 1999 Jaguars and Titans, the 2000 Ravens and Titans, and the 2002 Eagles and Bucs are a few that come to mind.   It is not unusual for dominant teams to meet in both the regular season and playoffs. 

I am not a believer in the theory that how you play in September and October really doesn’t matter.   After you have watched 6-8 games you can tell who the contenders are and who the pretenders are.  You are what your record says you are.  Great teams play great the entire year.  The Patriots and Colts have been great in past seasons.  Both teams look like all time great teams this season.     

The only thing that can change that is injuries.  Barring a Petyon Manning or Tom Brady injury we look destined to have another Colts vs. Patriots AFC Championship Game.  These two teams are head and shoulders above the league.  If both teams stay relatively healthy there doesn’t appear to be anything that can stop the inevitable from happening; a January rematch at the winner’s field.  

These types of games are so huge because it basically gives the winner a two game lead.  With the tiebreaker the winner can still afford to be tied and earn the home playoff game.  While the winner will have the inside track to home field, the loser is by no means doomed to be the runner up the second time around.   Both teams are good enough to win the playoff rematch on the road.

Here are the two things I think you need to look for in this game:

1) The Patriots linebackers and safeties vs. Clark and Addai – This is what I believe will be the biggest key to the game.  The difference in the Colts this year as opposed to 2004 is that the Colts can beat you with both an explosive offense and a grind it out style.  The reasons for that are the emergence of the running game, improvement on defense, and the maturation of Peyton Manning.  The one weakness in the Patriots stellar defensive unit would be the linebackers and safeties.  While this is a veteran group they rely more on their smarts than they do on their athleticism.  There are plenty of guys in the league that run faster.  Thomas would be the exception to that and is the main reason the Patriots signed him.  The Patriots linebackers looked very slow in that title game last season.  Can Manning exploit this part of the defense like he did in last years AFC Championship Game?  If he can, the Colts can score points and control the clock, thus keeping the explosive Patriots offense on the sidelines.

2) Moss, Stallworth, and Welker vs. the Colts secondary – The Patriots are going to do the same thing they have in their first 8 ball games.  They are going to spread the field and try to score in bunches.  The goal will be to put the pressure on Manning and the Colts receivers to answer.  The goal will be to make the Colts one-dimensional.  While the Colts secondary is much improved over last season they haven’t faced a receiving core quite like this in game conditions.  The Colts will not be able to cover the Patriots all over the field.  The key is Freeney and Mathis putting pressure on Brady.  If he doesn’t have time to find players down field, the Patriots will have to rely on short passes and the running game.  If the Patriots are constantly in 3rd and long type situations, the Colts will have a better chance of controlling the game. 

In the end, this game is more important to the Patriots than the Colts.  The Colts are the defending champs and have won the last 3 meetings.  The whole Patriots offseason was for this game.  The Patriots were so bitter about losing the championship game that they wanted to prevent that from ever happening again.  If they lose this game by 1 point their whole start is meaningless. 

While the Colts want the game for seeding purposes, it is only important that they play a competitive game.  A 52-7 loss would be a bad mental barrier for a future playoff game.  As long as they play competitively they no longer have the hurdle that haunted them for so many years, How Do We Beat the Patriots???  They know they can beat this team.  If they were to lose 34-27, they could chalk it up to a close loss in the midst of a historic Patriots start.  They know that in a playoff game they have the experience and personal necessary to win that game.  With the Colts improved run game and defense they are much better equipped to win a game in bad weather then they were in 2003 and 2004. 

In my preseason picks, I had the Patriots as the #1 seed at 14-2 and the Colts as the #2 seed at 12-4.  In my Power Rankings I have the Patriots ranked number one and the Colts number two.  The Patriots have not done anything since August to convince me they are not the best team in the NFL.  The Patriots are what I thought they would be.  While I didn’t envision the Colts having such a good defense, I am not one to waffle on my positions.  I do not play both sides of the fence. 

I have gone back and forth on this game in my mind so much.  I can’t decide who is going to win.  One minute I think the Patriots will blow past the Colts and the next minute I think the Colts have a chance to win big.  Both teams have played so well that it doesn’t seem possible that either could lose. 

I am sticking with the Patriots.  The biggest factor is The Hood.  Since the Patriots were exposed for the Camera Incident in NY (I hate calling scandals gate) they have been on a mission.  I have never seen a team that was this well prepared, this focused, and this determined in the 20 years I have been watching football.  I always thought that Madden Games were unrealistic, because the stats were unachievable.  This Patriots team appears to be the exception.  Brady doesn’t look like he is playing football.  He looks like he is hitting the X button, then going to R1, oh wait, the Square Button is open.  Playing QB is supposed to be one of the toughest things to do in sports.  The way he has played this season makes it look like anyone in the country could do it. 

It doesn’t even seem possible that the Patriots and Dolphins are both professional teams.  It doesn’t even look like they are playing the same game.  I have never seen the gap this big between the best team and the worst team.  While the Colts have looked great at times this year, they haven’t given me that same feel.

In past epic matchups home field does seem to be a big deal.  The Colts play so well in that dome.  It is the first time in years the Colts have been an underdog at home.  If the Patriots were not battled tested, I think playing in that environment could faze them.  This team is so experienced that I can’t see that being a big factor. 

That said, the Colts aren’t going to lie down and die for the Patriots.  I expect them to give the Patriots everything they could ask for, and more.  The Patriots leading the Dolphins 42-7 at halftime has no bearing on this game.  This is about these players on these teams.  The one area I think the Colts can exploit is the middle of the Patriots linebacking core and secondary. 

If this were the 2004 Colts vs. the 2007 Patriots, I would pick the Patriots to win by 3 or 4 touchdowns.  The difference in Peyton Manning now as opposed to 2004 is that he is willing to take the short routes and dump passes and move the ball methodically down the field.  While he still picks his spots, he is much more intelligent about it.  He isn’t looking for the big play every play.  He doesn’t think Ty Law plays for his team.  I have been more impressed with him in his last 23 ball games than I was when he was putting up gaudy numbers in 2004. 

Rarely do these types of games live up to the billing.  I believe this one will.  I look for the Patriots to beat the Colts 38-31.  I look for the Patriots to win home field advantage, in large part due to the victory in this game.  I look for the Colts to finish the season as the number 2 seed.  I look for the Colts to play the Patriots in New England for the title game. 

I would love to hear your thoughts.  Are you going with the Colts or the Pats?  Are you excited for the game, or do you just want it to be over?  What are some of your favorite big regular season match ups from the past?  Let me know your thoughts.