It's easy to criticize the Suns for making two potentially fatal errors: tinkering with their court chemistry and trading a star for a washed-up superstar near the end of his run.  But I submit to you that while the trade is a significant gamble for the Suns, the fiscal and chemistry components minimize the downside while the upside is potentially a championship for their franchise.  Allow me to explain.

     Obviously, in nearly every way, statistical and actual, Shawn Marion is a far superior player to Shaq at this point in their career.  Marion's faster, a better shooter, fiercer rebounder, more effective scorer, and a suffocation and versatile defender, contrasting with O'Neal's now Shawn Bradley-ish efforts.  But as anybody who watched the most recent Super Bowl knows, winning is not just about talent.  The Knicks arguably have one of the most talented teams in the league, but are more or less a $200 million VH1 reality show.  More importantly, some talents matter more than others.  Specifically, you can point to one element in every NBA champion in recent memory: dominant post play, especially defending the paint.  Why is this the case?  If football is a game of inches, basketball is a game of percentages.  Quite simply, shots in the paint are more likely to go in, so taking and preventing them greatly  significantly increases your chance of success.  Shaq is a better post scorer than Marion and the double teams he will draw will open up their shooters, a service Shawn doesn't provide in the half-court game so critical in the playoffs.  Related to that, O'Neal is a very good passer down low, both to cutters and shooters.  His post presence also makes it likely the Suns get an offensive rebound whenever he or Stoudemire are paired with one another, providing more close-up shot opportunities - most of Marion's offensive rebounds are further out on the floor.  While overall Marion is a superior defender, Shaq still takes up a lot of room on defense and must be accounted for.  Shawn Marion may be more talented at this stage of their careers, but O'Neals talents are better suited for the style of basketball played in the playoffs.

  Bob Whitsitt says he didn't major in chemistry, but Steve Kerr at least has done some brushing up.  Shawn Marion stops just short of being a cancer and takes a toll on the veteran leadership (i.e. Steve Nash) having to babysit both him and Amare.  Something is wrong with a player who'd rather be the featured player on a middling team over being in the top three of a championship contender.  On the other hand, Shaquille O'Neal is one of the most revered and well-liked players in NBA history.  Have you ever heard a complaint from teammates about Shaq that wasn't related to the Kobe feud?  Shaq is the Godfather of the whole NBA.  He provides leadership and credibility as well as likeability.  As far as ability in the playoffs, O'Neal simply buries Marion in the comparison.  He is one of the premier playoff performers in history, as evidenced by 4 rings and 3 finals MVPs.  Marion is a total playoff bust.  As a Spurs fan, I've watched him time and again dominated by Duncan's offense and taken out of the game by Bowen's defense.  In comparison of issues of character regarding chemistry and playoff performance, the Shaq is truly Marion's daddy.

     The one dimension where the Suns emerge truly victorious in this trade is in its financial aspects.  Shawn Marion presents a unique problem - he's remarkably talented but not really a star, so how do you compensate him?  With his contract expiring next year and given his desire to be traded, the Suns risked either losing him for nothing or signing him for huge money while his game declines.  This is now Miami's problem to deal with.  Speaking of new Miami problems, they now inherit the moronic Marcus Banks contract, the dumbest move of the Colangelo era.  (Seriously, they gave away the draft picks that could have been Luol Deng, Rajon Rondo,  Kyle Lowry, and Rudy Fernandez.  Three of those point guards to relieve the burden of Nash plus all of them were cheaper than Banks.)   Phoenix doesn't just shed two problem contracts, it puts itself in an excellent cap position in 2010.  That year the contracts of O'Neal, Nash, and Bell all come due, putting them 20-25 million dollars under the cap.  The free agents that year?  Oh just Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, et al.  Do you think one of them might want to play in warm weather with Amare Stoudemire (and probably a re-signed Nash) for a passionate fan base and player-friendly coach? 

     If Shaq proves to be a bust, the Suns at the very least how smoothed out team chemistry and given themselves unbelievable cap flexibility (see Bill Simmon's article on "Chemacterility").  But if Steve Kerr is right, we get to see Steve Nash weep with joy rather than frustration.