Back in the days of weekend-long video game-playing, what happened last Sunday to Tom Brady and the Patriots would have been a classic “that never happened” moment. Game 1 of the season, 8 minutes in, and the best player in the game goes down with an injury? Time to hit the reset button and yell, “That never happened!”
Unfortunately in real life, as we’ve all been taught, there is no reset button. So now the season of redemption for the Patriots becomes the season of doubt. Is this team good enough to win without Tom Brady? Can Matt Cassel—a career back-up even in college—manage the game effectively enough for the Patriots? Will Randy Moss pack it in now that he’s lost his quarterback? Can lightning possibly strike twice for a New England Patriots backup quarterback?
Of course there are league-wide ramifications that go along with Brady’s injury. Many people (myself included) had the Patriots winning the Super Bowl this year. Can we get a do-over on the predictions? In the span of one day the quarterback of my Super Bowl-winning team went down and the team I had pegged to win one game (the Falcons) won their first game.
And then there is the ugly side of Brady’s injury. I knew it was coming but it still struck me like a punch to the gut. No, not the injury itself—that was a shock to the system. I’m talking about the first #### I heard on sports radio that uttered, “I’m glad he got hurt.”
And that #### wasn’t alone. I’ve read blog posts echoing a similar sentiment. And the word on the street is that fans in various locales cheered mightily when Brady limped off the field. Forget the “never wish harm upon anyone” argument just for a moment. I’ve got a better argument against these people: The Forgotten Title argument.
What’s the Forgotten Title, you ask? I’ll give you an example: The NBA Champions from 1994 and 1995. Anyone know who that was? The Houston Rockets, who won the NBA Championship the two years in which Michael Jordan “retired.” To this day there are those that believe that Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls would have won eight straight championships if Jordan hadn’t left.
Is that what you want as a fan of a particular team? To have your team’s success, championships, and character questioned because they had the misfortune to win in a year that someone else was supposed to win?
As a fan of the Patriots, I know firsthand the torture of needing to defend your team even after they’ve won it all. After the Spygate scandal broke last year, many questioned the legitimacy of the Patriots’ three Super Bowl titles. We went from wearing our Super Bowl gear with pride to defending each and every win. All championships are not created equal.
On the flip side, the teams that slay the dragons are remembered for eternity. Think Jim Valvano’s 1983 NC State team. Or the 2001 Patriots. Or [gulp] the 2007 Giants.
Think about what the Giants did last year. They beat two 13-win teams (on the road) and won the Super Bowl against the first 18-0 team in NFL history. How much more satisfying could a championship be than that? Your team beats the two best teams in your league and one of the greatest teams of all time to win it all. No one can ever take that away, and no one is ever going to downplay it or forget it.
This year’s champion? It’s going to depend who wins, but if it’s any AFC team, you’ll always hear, “Well, who knows if they would have beaten Tom Brady and the Patriots.”
As a fan, first and foremost we want our teams to win. But the close second to that is that we want our teams to be remembered. We don’t want to ever have to hear that our team won a “tainted” championship because it was a strike-shortened season, or someone broke the rules, or because some other team’s best player got hurt.
So be careful what you wish for, fans of other teams. Ask any Giants fan how satisfying last year was. Or any Colts fan how much beating the Patriots and then winning the Super Bowl means to them. Or ask any Red Sox fan how much sweeter winning the 2004 World Series was after becoming the first team in history to come back from a 3-0 deficit. Against the Yankees.
And just think about this: What if the Patriots manage to rally behind Cassel and make the playoffs. Or win the AFC East. Or even win it all. What then?
This NFL season has a whole new level of intrigue now. No one knows how Matt Cassel and the Patriots will respond against the Jets on Sunday. The question remains: Who will win the Super Bowl this year, and will it become a Forgotten Title?
Week 2 NFL Picks
JACKSONVILLE (-5½) over Buffalo CAROLINA (-3) over Chicago Green Bay (-3) over DETROIT MINNESOTA (+1½) over Indianapolis New Orleans (+E) over WASHINGTON NY Giants (-8½) over ST. LOUIS KANSAS CITY (-3½) over Oakland Tennessee (+1½) over CINCINNATI TAMPA BAY (-7) over Atlanta San Francisco (+7) over SEATTLE ARIZONA (-6½) over Miami New England (+1½) over NY JETS DENVER (+1) over San Diego CLEVELAND (+6) over Pittsburgh HOUSTON (-4½) over Baltimore Philadelphia (+7) over DALLAS
Everyone predicted a Patriots-Giants Super Bowl, right? But what else should we have expected in a season in which the only thing we could count on each week was a Patriots victory?
As the AFC Championship Game wore on and the Chargers were (in the words of Teddy KGB in Rounders), “hanging around, hanging around,” it became painfully obvious that this would not be one of those Patriots blowouts from earlier in the season that we had grown to love. But just as they had done 17 times before, the 2007 Patriots won the game. This time the script was decidedly different. It included a red zone interception by Tom Brady (his first since the Broncos disaster from two years ago), a power running game by Laurence Maroney and the offensive line, and solid red zone defense.
It all added up to 18-0 and a trip to the Super Bowl. Just as expected. But not quite how we expected.
In the NFC Championship Game, the Giants and Packers waged a battle of last man standing (in the Arctic). On a brutally cold Wisconsin night, each team passed the ball far more than predicted—and with better results than one would expect. But perhaps the Packers should have found some way to run the ball more than 13 times (the Giants had 39 running plays). Maybe then the time of possession battle wouldn’t have been so pronounced (the Giants had the ball for 40 minutes compared to the Packers’ 22). And maybe they wouldn’t have been relying on Brett Favre to remain the new Brett Favre—instead of the one from years past who was the mad gunslinger. His final interception was reminiscent of many of his old head-scratching throws.
Give the Giants credit. They did what they needed to do to win. It was their 10th straight road win and their sixth win in their last eight games. Now they head to the Super Bowl to face the Patriots in a game dripping with irony: The two teams played one of the most entertaining, highly-rated “meaningless” games in NFL history in Week 17. Now they’ll play again for the NFL championship.
And who knows—perhaps that Week 17 game is one of the reasons the Giants are going to the Super Bowl. Every team that rested their starters down the stretch was bounced from the playoffs this year. But the Giants and Patriots—with nothing to play for other than history—played until the final gun of their final game. Maybe the Giants played their way in, starting with the toe-to-toe match-up with the undefeated Patriots.
History will again be on the line when Super Bowl XLII rolls around. The Patriots will be trying to cap off the first 19-0 season in NFL history, while the Giants will be trying to defeat the only 18-0 team in NFL history.
In this unpredictably predictable season, would it shock anyone if the Giants knocked off the Patriots? OK, that would be a shock. Consider this: The Patriots won 6 more games than the Giants in the regular season. It’s the most lopsided match-up in terms of wins in Super Bowl history. The next widest gap between Super Bowl entrants in the last 40 years was 3 wins, which has happened six times. Five of those games were won by the team with more wins—and one of them was the biggest blowout in Super Bowl history, San Francisco’s 55-10 drubbing of Denver in Super Bowl XXIV.
The lone upset when a 3-game win disparity was involved? The 2001 New England Patriots, who knocked off the Greatest Show on Turf Rams and started the current dynasty.
History is on the Patriots’ side. And if they need a reminder of what can happen in the biggest game of the year, they need only break out their own game film from six years ago.
As matchbox twenty sings, “Let’s see how far we’ve come.”
Eighteen weeks after the 2007 season began, we’ve got an AFC Championship match-up that seemed plausible prior to the season, and an NFC match-up that no one saw coming back in August.
The road to Super Bowl XLII has been long and winding. With just one Sunday of football remaining before the hype truly begins, let’s take a look at what we’ve learned during this NFL season and postseason.
Jacksonville’s in the wrong division Heck, they might even be in the wrong conference. They’ve lost five out of six to Indianapolis, leaving them without the opportunity to win their division year after year. This means a Wild Card spot at best and no real chance to make it to the Super Bowl. If they were in the NFC they might just be a perennial powerhouse.
This is a shame for the Jaguars, because they showed last week just how good they can be in their battle royale with the undefeated Patriots. It might have been the last tough game the Patriots have this year to tell you the truth. But the Jags still lost, and if they don’t find a way to get past the Colts (or get switched to a different division) painful road playoff losses remain in the Jaguars’ future.
The NFC is a crapshoot Seven different teams have won an NFC division in the last two years. Only Seattle repeated as division champion this year. In the AFC, three of the four division champions repeated, with New England and Indianapolis winning their divisions for five straight years. If I needed to do my NFL 2008 preview right now, I’d go with New England, Indianapolis, and San Diego to repeat again, and Cleveland to get over the hump. And in the NFC? Who knows? How about Arizona, Washington, Detroit, and Atlanta?
Offense is in It wasn’t just Tom Brady and Randy Moss and their record-setting seasons. Scoring was up across the board and there was no defense that stood out like in seasons past. The last Super Bowl champion that rode their offense to the title was the ’99 Rams (and that team actually gave up just 22 points over their final two games). The last seven champions held their first playoff opponent under 20 points, and all but the ’04 Patriots held their first two playoff opponents under 20 points. This week’s favorites to make the Super Bowl, the Patriots and Packers, each gave up 20 points in their first playoff games (and scored 31 and 42, respectively). This season, and playoffs, is all about the offense.
Resting players = losing playoff recipe Tampa Bay rested their players for an unprecedented two straight weeks then lost at home to the Giants. The Cowboys and Colts both rested players prior to their bye week and both lost at home. Meanwhile, the Giants and Patriots battled to the death prior to the playoffs with nothing to gain and each stands one game from the Super Bowl. It’s a trend to keep an eye on for future postseasons.
Maybe it’s the Chargers who are the problem After the Chargers questioned the Patriots’ class after last year’s playoff tussle (Public Enemy #1) I started to wonder if what the players were saying was true. But then I watched the Chargers jaw with the Broncos. And the Titans. And the Colts’ fans. And I thought, “maybe it’s the Chargers who have no class.” I’m just saying…
It’s a good thing Peyton won a ring last year Watching the Colts blow another playoff game at home last week made me even angrier that the Patriots lost to them last year. But the perfect season wouldn’t have happened without that loss (more on that in a moment), so I guess in retrospect it was a good thing. For both the Patriots and Peyton Manning. The Colts won the Super Bowl, did it by going through the Patriots, and Peyton got his ring.
By the way he and his teammates played last week leads me to believe it might be his only ring. His best receiver was barely able to take the field (and then he fumbled when he did) and the offense’s play-calling was awful while the execution was even worse. Last year just might have been it for the Colts.
Yes, everyone, I’m sorry, but the Patriots are this good It took the perfect storm of events to produce the first 17-0 team since the ’72 Dolphins. But that storm arrived. One year ago this weekend the first brick in the foundation was laid, as the Patriots’ offense couldn’t catch a key pass to win the game and the aging defense ran out of gas against the Colts. Then Belichick had to coach the Pro Bowl and I believe he secretly vowed to never be there again. New England loaded up with three wide receivers and the best defensive free agent on the market. Finally, “spygate” occurred, galvanized the team, and the rest is history.
I think Belichick’s defensive game plan for the last six weeks has been to play as vanilla as possible until the second half. If the game’s been close, he releases the hounds. Meanwhile, the offense continues to be a nearly unstoppable machine. It’s reached the point in which the first opponent’s turnover or punt signals that the game is officially over.
Championship Weekend Picks
San Diego (+14½) over New England I’ve incorrectly picked the Patriots’ games against the spread in each of the last four weeks, so I’ll go opposite what I really think will happen in this one and say the Chargers somehow cover the spread. They barely won in Indy, flew back to San Diego, flew across the country again with one fewer day off than the undefeated Patriots, they have a gimpy quarterback, running back, and tight end, the Patriots are clicking on all cylinders, and it’s going to be 12 degrees. It all spells blowout to me. But they’ll probably score a late touchdown to cover the spread, just because I keep getting it wrong. Prediction: Patriots 34, Chargers 20
Green Bay (-7) over New York Giants I think the Giants finally run out of steam this week. The Packers have been lighting it up, and were most impressive after falling behind 14-0 last week. On a slow track like Lambeau in the winter, their defense plays really fast, and Favre has reinvented himself in the twilight of his career. This one will probably be close until late in the game as the Pack pulls away. Prediction: Packers 30, Giants 21
This year’s NFL regular season brought us the renaissance of a legend, a team rising above the death of one of their own players, the craziest field goal we’ve ever seen, one of the best in-game snowstorms we’ve ever seen, a rookie sensation taking the league by storm, a mere 9 losses registered by the league’s top 4 teams (with three of those losses coming in games against each other), and heavily-hyped games that lived up the hype.
Oh, and the first team in NFL history to go 16-0 (more on whether or not the Patriots’ season was the greatest of all time in a moment).
Maybe I’m in the “whatever is new is always great” club today, but the NFL season that concluded last week sure seemed like one of the best to come along in ages. Brett Favre’s transformation from old man winter (71.8 passer rating with 38 TDs, 47 INTs, and 12 wins the previous two seasons) to the lion in winter (95.7 passer rating with 28 TDs, 15 INTs, and 13 wins this season) was an incredible sight to behold.
Just as incredible was watching the Washington Redskins—who lost Sean Taylor, one of their best defensive players to a shooting death—go 4-0 after regrouping and make the playoffs. And Taylor was elected to the Pro Bowl after his death.
In Week 11, Cleveland kicker Phil Dawson kicked a game-tying 51-yard field goal that hit the left upright, went through the uprights, hit the support post behind the crossbar, then bounded back onto the field. To the naked eye, it looked no good. But after a seemingly endless delay the officials—without the aid of replay, which isn’t used on field goals—decided correctly that the field goal was indeed good. The Browns went on to win in overtime. Never seen anything like that, have we?
Four weeks later the Browns and Bills locked up in an 8-0 game in a veritable blizzard. Of course the hero of the game was kicker Phil Dawson, who connected from 35 and 49 yards on a day in which staying on your feet was difficult, never mind using them to score points.
Speaking of feet, Vikings rookie Adrian Peterson used his to rush for 1,341 yards in 14 games, ending the season with a yards-per-rush average of 5.6. And in a Week 9 game against San Diego, he set the NFL single-game rushing record with 296 yards.
This was the year that the cream rose to the top. The Patriots, Cowboys, Packers, and Colts combined for a record of 55-9 (52-6 if you take out the games against each other). This season is tied with 1998 for best record among the top 4 teams in the 16-game season era (the Vikings, Falcons, Broncos, and Jets combined for 9 losses that season).
And you want big games? Meaningful games between top teams that live up to the hype? How about the Patriots throttling the Chargers in Week 2 after “spygate” erupted? Or the Patriots beating the Cowboys in one of the few 5-0 vs. 5-0 games in league history? Or Green Bay winning in Denver on Monday night on a Favre overtime touchdown pass? Want more? The 8-0 Patriots coming back from 10 down in the 4th quarter to beat the 7-0 Colts springs to mind. Or the Chargers beating those same Colts the next week on Sunday night. And the Cowboys knocking off the Packers on a Thursday night NFL Network special. Finally, the Patriots putting the finishing touches on an undefeated season by coming back from 12 down to beat the Giants in a “meaningless” game watched by 34.5 million people on three networks.
NBC’s flex schedule worked perfectly this season, giving us week after week of important games. The NFL Network tried in vain to find its place on the American television set but needed an assist in the final week. Even the Dolphins’ run at infamy made this season special. Call me crazy, but it just might have been the best season ever.
Which brings us back to the Patriots. Their remarkable run to 16-0 just might have been the greatest NFL season of all time. The detractors will point out that the Patriots faced the Dolphins and Jets twice (those two teams went a combined 5-27). But division rivals and 4-12 squads are the kinds of teams that usually derail these kinds of runs at history (the 1990 49ers lost their first game to the 5-11 Rams). I’ll make no apologies for the teams the Patriots faced this season.
As a matter of fact, they played and beat four division winners (two on the road), six playoff teams, and eight teams that finished 8-8 or better. If not for the Patriots, the Browns, Bills, and Eagles might have made the playoffs this year. The Redskins were able to rebound from their loss at the hands of the Patriots. It will be interesting to see how the Giants fare following last week’s showdown.
What else made this Patriots season so special? They outscored their opponents by 315 points. 10 other teams scored fewer than 315 points. The seasons Tom Brady and Randy Moss had. (Can we call the trade of a 4th round pick for Randy Moss the greatest NFL trade of all time?)
Or how about how in their four closest games (against the Colts, Eagles, Ravens, and Giants), they outscored their opponents 46-21 in the 4th quarter? Or the fact that their largest deficit of the season—12 points—came with 24 minutes and 12 seconds remaining in game 16?
Their 44 punts were the fewest punts by a team in a 16-game season. The previous record of fewest punts by a Patriots team was 49. That was set in the strike-shortened 1982 season when the team played 9 games.
Wes Welker was a joy to watch. The relentless passing attack was often poetry in motion. Their video game-esque demolitions of the Dolphins, Redskins, and Bills, sandwiched around the win in Indianapolis, were some of the most amazing performances the league has ever seen.
Prior to the Colts game, I wrote: “Tom Brady has thrown for 20 touchdowns and the Patriots have outscored their opponents 179-45. In the first half.” For the season, those numbers were: 32 touchdowns for Brady, and a 333-137 advantage over their opponents in the first half. Only Tony Romo (36) threw more touchdowns on the season than Brady did in the first half. The 333 first half points the Patriots scored were one fewer than the Redskins and Buccaneers scored all season. And the Titans only scored 301. Those are three playoff teams.
The numbers are staggering, the competition was formidable, and the season was unforgettable. It was a season for the ages, and quite possibly the greatest season of all time.NFL Playoff Round 1 Selections
Washington (+3½) over Seattle Everyone likes the Redskins for the emotion factor, and other than that the only reason to like them in this game is that in the last three years 2 underdogs covered in Round 1, so this one will be one of mine. I know Seattle is tough at home and Washington quarterback is Todd Collins is untested, but I’ll go with Washington anyway. One more week of the feel good story for Joe Gibbs and his troops. Pick: Redskins 21, Seahawks 20
Pittsburgh (+2½) over Jacksonville I’ve gone back and forth on this one all week. There’s no way the Steelers could lose at home to the Jaguars twice, go with Pittsburgh. Jacksonville’s playing much better football than Pittsburgh, go with Jacksonville. Mike Tomlin’s playoff inexperience. Jacksonville’s recent playoff losses. Which way to go? I’m going with Pittsburgh to win a close one at home. Pick: Steelers 26, Jaguars 23
Tampa Bay (-2½) over New York Giants That was a valiant effort by the Giants last week and an impressive performance against the undefeated Patriots. But I don’t think they have a chance in this one. Add it all up: the starters played a playoff-type game last week while Tampa’s been resting for two weeks; when the Patriots pressured Eli Manning in the 2nd half, he went 9-14 for 70 yards with one interception, one center-QB fumble, and one sack—expect a lot of pressure this week from the Bucs; it’s Jon Gruden and Jeff Garcia against Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning. Sounds like a Tampa win to me. Pick: Buccaneers 29, Giants 15
San Diego (-10) over Tennessee Four of the last five teams favored by 7 or more in the 1st round of the playoffs won and covered. And this Chargers team is far superior in talent to the Titans. As a matter of fact, I’m not even sure how the Titans are in the playoffs. They scored just four more points than they allowed, had four more turnovers than forced turnovers, and got just 9 touchdown passes against 17 interceptions out of Vince Young. Their only win against a playoff team (and the Colts game last week doesn’t count) was way back in Week 1 when they beat Jacksonville. Not even Chargers coach Norv Turner can stop the Chargers from blowing out the Titans in this one. Pick: Chargers 38, Titans 13
If these results happen, it sets us up for a pretty good Round 2 with Pats-Steelers, Colts-Chargers, Cowboys-Redskins, and Packers-Bucs. Well, three intriguing games anyway.
13-0. Only the 5th team in NFL history to get there. And considering that this weekend is The Game everyone has been pointing toward since Week 1, is there anyone in the known universe that doesn’t think 14-0 is next? And then there’s the winless Dolphins and a Giants team that will have their playoff positioning locked up. 16-0 is no longer just a passing thought. It’s practically guaranteed (well, not by anyone in a Patriots uniform anyway).
After escaping by the skin of their teeth against the Ravens two weeks ago, the Patriots got back to their demolition-crew ways against a Steeler team that couldn’t live up to their young safety’s guarantee. Maybe it’s better to be lucky than good, but it’s clear that this year the Patriots are sometimes lucky but always good.
The question of the day is: Why? Why did the 2007 Patriots take on an air of invincibility, and why are they three games away from perfection? There are 6 reasons why…
1. Arizona is better than Hawaii Or maybe more to the point, Miami would have been preferable to Hawaii this past February. If your name is Bill Belichick. When the Patriots lost the AFC Championship Game to the Colts last season, the coach earned a trip to Hawaii to lead the AFC representative in the Pro Bowl. He would rather have been in Miami for Super Bowl XLI. Arizona is the sight of Super Bowl XLII, and Coach Belichick decided—perhaps on the flight home—that he would be enjoying a dry heat this February and not attending any luaus.
(Which reminds me—isn’t there a better way to decide who coaches the Pro Bowl? You’re a step away from the Super Bowl and instead you have to go coach a game that no one—not the players, the fans, or the kind people of Hawaii—cares about? Can you imagine sitting on the plane to Honolulu when all of a sudden the drunk guy next to you screams, “Why didn’t you catch the ball Caldwell?!?”)
Belichick took his medicine, went to Hawaii, and turned it into one giant scouting mission. And I think he secretly took a vow to never be there again. One year after leaving all kinds of salary cap money on the table, Belichick and company decided that they needed to upgrade the team if they wanted to get back to the Super Bowl. The result was an influx of talent on both sides of the ball and a renewed attitude.
2. Tom Brady is Tom Brady 3,529 yards passing (7th), 24 touchdowns (tied for 4th), and an 87.9 passer rating (9th). Those are Tom Brady’s numbers from last season (along with his NFL rank). His leading wide receivers were Reche Caldwell (760 yards), Troy Brown (384 yards), and Doug Gabriel (344 yards). Not exactly Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Donte Stallworth.
What’s the point of all of this? Tom Brady is not some one-hit wonder who’s having an out-of-the-blue phenomenal season. Brady has routinely been in the 3,500+ yard range with anywhere from 23 to 28 touchdown passes per season. And he’s done that without big name talent around him. Ever. Is it any wonder that he’s taken the gifts he’s received and used them to the level he has?
There’s only one other quarterback in the league that would be having the type of success that Brady is having with this receiving corps: Peyton Manning.
The discussion of how good this team is begins and ends with Tom Brady.
3. Coaching Last week Jets head coach Eric Mangini kicked a field goal with 1:43 remaining in the game even though they trailed by 5 points. It was one of the worst coaching decisions I’ve ever seen. They’d already recovered one onside kick—what were the chances they’d recover another one? Have you ever seen a team recover two onside kicks in one game? Meanwhile, two weeks ago, Hall of Fame head coach Joe Gibbs called back-to-back timeouts prior to a field goal attempt by the Bills. That led to a penalty and an eventual loss.
Those are just two examples of the bad coaching in the NFL right now. Which makes the way Belichick and his staff coach stand out like Vince Lombardi at a Norv Turner look-a-like party. It’s not just the lack of letdown games and the lack of wasted timeouts that stands out for me with this team. It’s the little things they do.
Leading 35-7 with 4 seconds remaining before halftime against the Bills, the Patriots called timeout so that they could insert Randy Moss to help defend against a potential Hail Mary. Moss knocked down the ball at the goal line. Belichick and company are head and shoulders the best coaching staff in the league.
4. The schedule Don’t get me started on the argument that the Patriots are winning because of their schedule. Yes, they have the winless Dolphins and Jets in their division, but they’ve only faced each of those teams once so far and are 13-0. Meanwhile they’ve also beaten the #2 and #3 teams in the NFL—the Cowboys and Colts—on the road. Those two teams are a combined 23-1 against teams not named the Patriots. They’ve also beaten a 9-win team (Pittsburgh), two 8-win teams (Cleveland and San Diego), and a 7-win team twice (Buffalo).
What has aided the Patriots was having their bye week when they had it. Their bye week came right after their battle with the Colts, allowing them to rest up for a stretch that included two road games in three weeks and three straight night games. And that was all before their showdown with the Steelers. Now they have two more home games on the way, and their only road trip pre-Super Bowl will be to New York to face the Giants. After 13 games of hard work, the schedule is in the Patriots’ favor.
5. Randy Moss Randy Moss is to the Patriots what Bill Walton was to the Celtics in ’86, Dennis Rodman was to the Bulls in the ‘90s, and Deion Sanders was to the 49ers in ’94 and the Cowboys in ’95. Moss is a huge part of what the Patriots do offensively, and is the puzzle piece that turned this team from the leading Super Bowl contender into a juggernaut.
I put Moss 5th on my list for a reason, though. There are those out there that think Moss should be the league MVP this year. To them I say go back and read #2 in this list. Then take a look at Moss’ stats from the last few years. I was out in Vegas after the Patriots had signed Welker, Stallworth, and Adalius Thomas, and the odds for a New England Super Bowl win was 4-1, tied for the best on the board. Then they signed Moss. The last piece of the puzzle.
Moss has opened up the field for Brady. The two touchdown passes he threw to him during the Dolphins games were on two passes Brady would never in his life ever have thrown. But there was Moss, double-covered, so why the heck not? Welker has benefited from having Moss, and the entire aerial attack thrives because of him.
6. The defining incident Call it Spygate or whatever you want, that opening week incident galvanized this team to the point that they collectively decided to have no mercy on opponents. When a potential trap game arrives, there’s always Spygate to fall back on for inspiration. Right or wrong, it’s part of the motivation.
It’s the reason the Patriots are favored by 23½ points this weekend against the team that ratted them out. And it’s the reason (in addition to the first five on this list) that the Patriots are probably going to win by 40 or more points.
There are games every NFL season in which everyone thinks the favorite will roll to victory. Often it doesn’t work out that way (see Dallas-Detroit last week for a prime example). But I just get the feeling that Patriots-Jets will not be one of those games. I can see the Patriots coming out and running the ball—something they haven’t done consistently for weeks. I can see them running with a vengeance, scoring a touchdown, and setting up the passing game for an historic barrage for the remainder of the game. You thought the Steelers looked bad on those play action passes last week? It might look even worse this week. My pick in this one is Patriots 63, Jets 13.
The 2007 New England Patriots are on a mission. The reasons why are obvious.NFL Week 15 Picks
I’ve put together back-to-back solid weeks and have gotten the record back to respectability. I’m feeling so confident I decided to risk jinxing it and dole out some advice for this weekend’s games: Be wary of the team with “nothing to play for.” You always here prognosticators this time of year saying, “this team needs this game more.” Sports doesn’t always work that way. Last season in Week 15 there were 9 games involving a team with a sub-.500 record and a team in the playoff hunt. The underdog won four of those games outright and covered the spread in two others. There are 8 of these games this weekend (I’m not counting the 6-7 Lions and Redskins as out of it yet). I’m taking four of the underdogs.
HOUSTON (+1) over Denver SAN FRANCISCO (+8½) over Cincinnati NEW ORLEANS (-3½) over Arizona Atlanta (+13½) over TAMPA BAY Baltimore (-3½) over MIAMI CLEVELAND (-5½) over Buffalo Green Bay (-9½) over ST. LOUIS Jacksonville (+3½) over PITTSBURGH NEW ENGLAND (-23½) over NY Jets Seattle (-7) over CAROLINA KANSAS CITY (+4) over Tennessee OAKLAND (+10½) over Indianapolis SAN DIEGO (-10) over Detroit Philadelphia (+10) over DALLAS NY GIANTS (-4½) over Washington MINNESOTA (-10) over Chicago
With 9 wins under their belts and a certain once-undefeated coach clearly worried that his 1972 Dolphins will no longer remain the sole undefeated squad in NFL annals, just what are the odds that one of their remaining 10 opponents will stop the Patriots’ historic run? Let’s check out the official Sports in a Can odds. We’ve provided some real-life examples along with the odds.
182,138,880,000,000 to 1 New York Jets (Week 15) It’s not just the fact that the Jets are 1-8 and will be lucky to win 2 more games. Or the fact that this win will make the Patriots just the second team ever to get to 14-0. Or even the fact that two 13-0 teams in the last 10 years have failed to win their 14th game. All of those factoids are just extra bits of motivation for the real reason the Patriots cannot lose this game: The fact that in Belichick’s grudge match world, the Jets are public enemy #1. The 52 points the Patriots put up against the Redskins might look like New England was being kind when this one is over. (Is matching the 73-0 score of the 1940 NFL Championship Game a possibility?) The Vegas line will probably be the biggest we’ve ever seen. How many points would be too many for the average gambler? 25? 30? If the Jets were to somehow win this game it might qualify as the greatest upset in the history of sport. Same odds as: A meteor landing on your house. (And if you’re worried about a meteor landing on your house, you should feel relieved that the odds of that happening are over one hundred eighty-two trillion to one.)
300,000,000 to 1 Miami Dolphins (Week 16) When Week 16 rolls around and the 14-0 Patriots face off against the hapless Dolphins, there will be plenty of stories written about how the Dolphins will be defending the honor of the 1972 edition and how in 1985 Miami was the only team to defeat the Bears and their 46 defense. Then the game will start and everyone will remember that the ‘07 Dolphins don’t quite stack up with their ’85 namesake. The ’85 Dolphins went 12-4 thanks to Dan Marino’s not-too-shabby 4,137 yards passing and 30 TDs. (Their Super Bowl journey was derailed by the Wild Card Patriots.) This year’s edition? 0-9. And although one could look at their season and say that they’ve lost five games by 3 points and thus decide that they’ve been competitive, the eyes tell a different story. It’s almost time to start wondering about the odds of the Dolphins becoming just the second winless team in NFL history. Same odds as: Dying in a shark attack. Of course, the Dolphins have a better chance of winning this game than you do of dying in a dolphin attack.
40,000,000 to 1 at Buffalo Bills (Week 11) Since Bill Belichick took over in 2000, the Patriots have lost just once in Buffalo—the infamous “they hate their coach” game following the release (and subsequent signing by Buffalo) of Lawyer Milloy. This team is infinitely better than that Patriots team, and 4-game winning streak or not, the Bills will not be stopping the Patriots’ streak. This one got the flex Sunday night schedule treatment, and even if the officiating is as bad as it was in the Pats-Colts game, it still won’t matter. Coming off a bye week with the stretch run staring them in the face, it’s hard to imagine the Patriots dropping this one. Same odds as: Contracting the human version of mad cow disease. And I’m not sure you can get that from eating buffalo.
13,200,000 to 1 AFC Divisional opponent I don’t care if it’s San Diego, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Buffalo, or even Indianapolis—there is no way the Patriots finish the season with 16 wins only to lose their first playoff game. In their last three playoff seasons, the Patriots have won their home playoff opener by 21, 25, and 17 points. Is it really possible that this team would do worse than that? Same odds as: Becoming an astronaut. Space is a little colder than the Northeast in January.
9,000,000 to 1 Philadelphia (Week 12) at Baltimore (Week 13) I’m giving both of these teams the same odds. Sure, one is at home and one is on the road, but other than that variable these two teams are remarkably similar. They win games they should lose, they lose games they should win. I can’t figure either of them out. I just know that neither has a very good chance of beating the Patriots. Same odds as: Getting struck by lightning. Twice.
3,000,000 to 1 NFC Champion (Super Bowl XLII) 18-0. That’s what the Patriots would be entering this game if they don’t lose between now and then. And only Dallas, Green Bay, or some other surprise team would be standing in their way. They’ve already beaten the Cowboys—on the road—by 21. Does anyone really think that they’ll lose the biggest game of the season to a clearly inferior NFC team after losing 0 games on the way? Same odds as: Dying from food poisoning. Even that dip you leave out for a week after the Super Bowl party is less dangerous than the NFC Super Bowl team will be.
662,000 to 1 AFC Championship opponent This was going to read “Indianapolis Colts,” and the odds were going to be a little lower. Then the Colts lost to the Chargers (after an improbable Adam Vinatieri miss) and worse than that they lost Dwight Freeney for the season. The Colts not only might not make it to this game, they might not make it out of the first round of the playoffs. So if not the Colts, then who? Pittsburgh? San Diego? A surprise team? None of them will be getting it done in Foxborough in January. Same odds as: Winning an Olympic medal.
649,740 to 1 Pittsburgh (Week 14) This one’s intriguing. On paper it looks like the Steelers should have a chance to win this one. New England will be coming off a Monday Nighter in Baltimore while Pittsburgh will have tuned up with the far-less-physical-Bengals (after the playing the winless Dolphins the week before). The Steelers are allowing a mere 14 points per game and Ben Roethlisberger (2,020 yards passing, 22 TDs, 7 INTs) looks better than he has in years. But this team almost lost to Cleveland last week. And they’ve lost road games to Denver and Arizona, two teams who are a combined 8-10. Is this really the team that’s going to end the streak? Same odds as: Getting a royal flush in poker on the first five cards dealt. Start right after reading this. Deal out a few hands over and over until one of the hands is a royal flush. If you can do it before the Pittsburgh game, then maybe the Steelers will win.
88,000 to 1 At New York Giants (Week 17) Here they are, the team with the best chance to beat the 2007 New England Patriots. And that team is named the New England Patriots. You read that right. The only team that can beat the Patriots is the Patriots. If they play their starters long enough in this game, 16-0 will be a reality. But the question is, just how long will they play the starters? And what will this game mean to the Giants? If it’s a snowy night in Jersey and a 10-10 game in the 3rd quarter, who knows if Brady and company go the distance in this one. My guess is that Belichick will do whatever it takes to win this game. They’ll have a bye the next week and can treat this one as one last playoff tune-up. It should be fun. Same odds as: Your chances of dating a supermodel.
There you have it. The best odds any team has of beating the Patriots are 88,000 to 1—or, the same chance you have of dating a supermodel. So unless your name is Tom Brady, you don’t have much chance of beating the Patriots this year, do you? And that’s the whole point, isn’t it?
NFL Week 11 Picks
CINCINNATI (-3) over Arizona GREEN BAY (-9½) over Carolina Cleveland (-2½) over BALTIMORE INDIANAPOLIS (-14½) over Kansas City Miami (+10) over PHILADELPHIA New Orleans (+1) over HOUSTON DETROIT (+2½) over NY Giants MINNESOTA (-5) over Oakland JACKSONVILLE (-3) over San Diego ATLANTA (+3) over Tampa Bay Pittsburgh (-9½) over NY JETS SEATTLE (-5½) over Chicago SAN FRANCISCO (+2½) over St. Louis DALLAS (-10½) over Washington New England (-16) over BUFFALO Tennessee (+2) over DENVER
What better way for the (current) best rivalry in sports to take it to the next level than to play in the greatest clash of unbeatens in the history of the NFL?
For the past 6½ years, the Patriots and Colts have been the best teams in the NFL. Since 2001, the Patriots have gone 78-26, made the playoffs 5 times, won 5 division titles, advanced to 4 AFC title games, and won 3 Super Bowls. In the same stretch, the Colts have gone 73-30, made the playoffs 5 times, won 4 division titles, advanced to 2 AFC title games, and won 1 Super Bowl.
They have faced off 3 times in the playoffs, with the winner taking home the Lombardi Trophy as Super Bowl champion each time. All eyes point toward another classic showdown in this year’s playoffs for what are arguably the two best teams in the NFL. But first, they go head-to-head in one of the most anticipated regular season games—in any sport—of all time.
For the Patriots and Colts,
BREAKING NEWS ALERT! THE PATRIOTS ARE RUNNING UP THE SCORE ON THEIR OPPONENTS!
This is John Notgoodenoughforprimetime at the news desk. We interrupt this blog entry to bring you this breaking news alert. The New England Patriots are committing an act of such magnificent cruelty that it demands to be discussed, dissected, and denounced immediately, forcefully, and with great authority.
We go live now to our seasoned correspondant, Ima O. Verreacting.
Ima: Thanks, John. The scene is horrific. Just awful. Almost indescribable. But I’ll try. There are literally dozens of angry Redskins—that’s their team name, by the way, I’m not using a racial slur—dozens of angry players strewn about the field of Gillette Stadium. They were pounded into submission by the relentless attack from a band of Patriots led by a very, very angry Bill Belichick. The Redskins are complaining that the Patriots’ continued assaults were unnecessary and injurious to their self-esteem and pride.
John: Oh, the humanity! Have there been any on the record comments from the Redskins?
Ima: While several of the players have complained, the only comment head coach Joe Gibbs had was, and I quote, “I have no problem with anything they did.” Sounds to me like he’s pretty upset, too, John.
John: Yes it does. And media members and fans of other teams are simply outraged at this development, so I’m sure we’ll be talking about this situation non-stop for the next seven days. Keep up the good work, Ima, and be careful out there. We’ve seen how dangerous these Patriots can be. We now return you to your regularly scheduled blog entry…
Well, let’s just forget about this week’s game I guess. We’ve got more important things to discuss. Sportsmanship! Embarrassing a Hall of Fame coach! Damaging the integrity of the game!
Let’s get one thing straight: The Patriots are running up the score on their opponents. I will neither deny nor defend that fact. But as a Patriots fan, there’s only one thing I can say:
I don’t care.
Really, I don’t. I was going to go on and on about how teams have done it in the past. I was going to look up the box scores from the Colts’ 2004 season and the Rams’ 2000 season to see how late in the game their starters were pulled. I was going to bring up past Super Bowls that ended with scores such as 46-10 and 55-10 and see when those teams called off the dogs. I was going to look up some of the lopsided games that the Patriots suffered through during my youth and talk about payback. I was going to do all kinds of research and bombard you with facts and figures and whatnot until I remembered one important thing:
I don’t care.
When Tom Brady and the first team offense just kept pouring it on last week, I had the same two thoughts that most observers had: 1. Wow. I can’t believe they’re doing this. 2. I hope Tom Brady (or any other starter) doesn’t end up getting hurt.
The difference is that I didn’t feel the need to gnash my teeth over the development. Perhaps it’s because I’m a fan of the team, but I’d like to think not. This is one of the problems with the 24/7 news/Internet culture that we have today. An issue like this takes hold and anyone with a computer or a microphone and plenty of time on their hands can help perpetuate a story ad nauseum.
The Patriots have decided they want to score as many points as humanly possible. So what? Who is this impacting? Whether Washington lost 52-7 or 38-14, should it really matter to their players and fans? Either way they were blown out. And if Belichick’s plan of attack gets one of his marquee players hurt, that’s on him.
This Patriots team is on a seemingly unstoppable run, and whether they pile on the points or not doesn’t change the fact that we might be witnessing one of the greatest offensive juggernauts of all time. Consider these numbers: Tom Brady has thrown for 20 touchdowns and the Patriots have outscored their opponents 179-45. In the first half.
Think about that for a minute. Brady has thrown more touchdowns in the first half of his games than any other quarterback in the league has thrown all season (Cleveland’s Derek Anderson has thrown 17 touchdowns, good for 2nd place). They are on pace to score 358 points in the first half, which would be more than all but 9 teams scored last season in 16 full games. And the 179 points they’ve scored so far in the first half this season is more than the Oakland Raiders scored in 16 full games last year—with Randy Moss on the team.
These numbers are staggering. And they don’t even take into account the 3rd quarter stats from their four games in which they had a lead of 10 points or less coming out of halftime. Nor do they even mention the numbers from when the Patriots run up the score at the end of games.
New England has scored on their opening drive in all eight games, scoring 5 touchdowns and 3 field goals. The only time they’ve trailed in the 2nd half of any game was against the Cowboys. That deficit lasted 5 minutes and 24 seconds, and was the impetus for the Patriots scoring 17 straight points.
It’s difficult to compare teams from different years and eras, but if the Patriots beat the Colts this Sunday—especially if they blow them out—we could be watching the best team in the history of the NFL in terms of how much better they are than the rest of the league.
Eight weeks from now we might be watching the only 16-0 football team in NFL history wrapping up their season. And five weeks later, it might be 19-0. While other people can complain about what they’re seeing, I’m going to just sit back and enjoy the historic ride.
The next stop on this ride is Indianapolis, where the top rivalry in the NFL is renewed, as the Patriots and Colts play one of the greatest match-ups in regular season history.
Week 9 NFL Picks
TAMPA BAY (-3½) over Arizona TENNESSEE (-4) over Carolina BUFFALO (+1) over Cincinnati DETROIT (-3) over Denver Green Bay (+2) over KANSAS CITY NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Jacksonville MINNESOTA (+7) over San Diego ATLANTA (-3½) over San Francisco Washington (-3½) over NY JETS CLEVELAND (-1) over Seattle Houston (+3) over OAKLAND New England (-5½) over INDIANAPOLIS Dallas (-3) over PHILADELPHIA PITTSBURGH (-9) over Baltimore
There is just so much going on right now in Boston sports that I couldn’t decide what to write about. So it’s time to clean out the fridge and get everything out there.
The Red Sox are about to win their 2nd World Series in four years. The Patriots are about to go undefeated. The Celtics have one of the most improved teams in the NBA. The Bruins have the 6th best record in the NHL. Boston College is ranked 2nd in the BCS after their improbable win on Thursday. Heck, even the Revolution looks like it might make some noise in the MLS playoffs. If this weren’t all so exciting, I’d be moving out of town, for fear that the Apocalypse was starting in the New England region.
I don’t even know what to say about the Patriots at this point. During commercials of their games, I flip to other games and it looks like other teams are playing a different sport. It’s shocking how good these guys are. And Tom Brady is having perhaps the greatest season of any athlete in any sport ever. Ever. It’s like Ted Williams’ .406 season in 1941, only if he also hit 65 home runs.
I still can’t believe that J.D. Drew hit that grand slam in Game 6 against the Indians.
I was already enamored with Red Sox rookie Jacoby Ellsbury. Then he stole 2nd base in Game 2 of the World Series and won everyone in America a free taco from Taco Bell. Now I love him even more.
I was going to write something entitled “Enjoy the Ride” this week about taking time to appreciate your team en route to a World Series, Super Bowl, etc., that would encompass my enjoyment of the Pats and Sox coupled with Colorado fans’ ride with the Rockies and juxtaposed against the foolishness that’s going on with the Yankees. But I bored myself with it before typing a word. But a note to the Steinbrenner family: an incentive-laden contract for your manager based on playoff wins? This is baseball. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. That franchise still encompasses all that is wrong with the sport of baseball.
To the Rockies fans: Your team’s incredible 21 wins out of 22 was one of the most remarkable runs in sports history. Don’t ever forget this experience, even if it ends at the hands of the Red Sox in the Series. And their comeback win against the Padres in the one game playoff was one of the greatest comebacks ever.
If you told me in November of 2003 that some day the Red Sox would be up 2-0 in the World Series and I wouldn’t be worried even one iota about the outcome of the Series, I’d have had you committed.
I realized during Game 2 of the World Series that I don’t remember anything from the 2004 World Series. I was so shell-shocked from the 2003 collapse that I still didn’t believe the greatest comeback of all time actually happened in the ALCS against the Yankees. I think I kept waiting for disaster to strike. When the Red Sox went up 3-0 in the World Series I thought for sure they’d lose four straight in some sort of karmic twist. To this day I still haven’t watched the 2004 Red Sox World Series DVD.
Poor Matt Cassel. He was the backup to one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time—a player who hasn’t missed a start in 112 games. Last week he threw an interception in garbage time that was returned for a touchdown. He was then pulled from the game. He might even be demoted to third-string quarterback at this point. Poor guy.
Did you ever wonder why when you bite the inside of your lip, you end up re-biting it about 4,000 times over the next several days? It’s happening to me right now. But with the Boston sports scene going so well, I really don’t care. Ow! (I just bit it again.)
The Giants and Dolphins are playing in London this weekend, which seems like a pretty big deal, doesn’t it? If so, why on earth are they playing at 1pm Eastern? Why didn’t this one get a special 10am start time? We’ve had breakfast at Wimbledon—why not breakfast with the Dolphins and Giants?
I’m already excited for Pats-Colts next week. It will be two undefeated teams with more combined wins than any game in NFL history. Of course the Giants and 49ers almost played an historic game in 1990. Both teams were 10-0 and were slated to meet on Monday Night Football two weeks later. But both lost the week before to fall to 10-1. I don’t see that happening this year, so get the hype machine ready.
The latest Sports Illustrated has an NBA preview, and I opened it without even looking at the cover. After flipping through a few pages, I closed it and noticed that the Celtics were on the cover. A strange feeling swept over me. It was a combination of excitement, intrigue, and a distinct lack of apathy and fear. I’m not sure I can even explain it.
Week 8 NFL Picks
Cleveland (-3) over ST. LOUIS Detroit (+5) over CHICAGO Indianapolis (-7) over CAROLINA NY Giants (-9½) over MIAMI TENNESSEE (-7½) over Oakland MINNESOTA (+1) over Philadelphia CINCINNATI (+3½) over Pittsburgh Buffalo (+3) over NY JETS Houston (+9½) over SAN DIEGO TAMPA BAY (-3½) over Jacksonville New Orleans (-2½) over SAN FRANCISCO NEW ENGLAND (-16½) over Washington Green Bay (+3) over DENVER
Peyton Manning was the hero. Bill Belichick was everyone’s choice for goat. Tom Brady could have put the game away on two different drives, but didn’t. The world was upside down. Dogs and cats were living together. It was anarchy.
I had written at one point, “Whoever kicks fewer field goals probably wins this game.” Of course, I had written that about the Patriots-Chargers game. After all of the buildup regarding former Patriot Adam Vinatieri playing for the Colts, it ended up not mattering who was kicking for either team. Vinatieri was 3-for-3 and Stephen Gostkowski was 4-for-4. All that mattered was that the Colts were able to exorcise all of their past demons and score a touchdown—instead of a field goal—with one minute to play.
As the final 16 seconds ticked away in the most improbable (and exciting) AFC Championship Game imaginable, it was time for the questions to begin. Were we witnessing the end of the Patriots Dynasty? The beginning of a Colts resurgence? Both? Neither?
NFL history is littered with tales of teams that finally rise up to knock off their nemesis and become the top dog for years to come. The Steelers finally beat the Raiders in 1975 and then won four of the next six Super Bowls. Dallas knocked off San Francisco in 1993 and won three of the next four Super Bowls.
But then there’s the flip side. The teams that eventually get over the hump but don’t remain on top. Steve Young’s 49ers finally defeated the Cowboys in 1995 and won Super Bowl XXIX. But San Franciso never returned to the Super Bowl. The same goes for the Ravens in 2000.
So the question is, did the Colts knocking off the Patriots last week signal a regime change in the AFC? Does Indianapolis have multiple championships in their future after finally knocking off their nemesis? Or will the Patriots be able to rebound from this difficult loss?
It’s difficult to predict, but one thing’s for sure: The Patriots and Colts have enjoyed unparalleled success over the last eight years. Each team has won five division titles. Only the Philadelphia Eagles have won as many in that timeframe. And all signs point to these two teams continuing their domination.
This may seem simplistic, but here’s the winning formula in the NFL, circa 2007: Solid organization, good coaching, top defense, good quarterback. NFC teams currently only need one of these four qualities to reach the Super Bowl. In the AFC, you need some combination of all four. A deficiency in any area means you need to be even stronger in another.
The Colts and Patriots have at least three of these ingredients in their annual recipe. Indianapolis has an organization willing to spend the money and make the key decisions necessary to keep the team in contention. New England has stuck with a personnel plan with which they’ve been successful. Both teams have solid coaching staffs. New England’s success has been predicated on defense, while the Colts’ defense has been an annual problem.
At the quarterback position, you can’t do much better than Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Either of these guys alone is easily worth 8 wins per year. The Colts would be a completely different team without Manning. And could the Patriots have come anywhere close to the AFC Championship Game without Brady?
It’s one of the reasons this AFC Championship Game was so compelling. While other teams get by with “game managers” or guys who are streaky at best, Manning and Brady are consistently good. Name another quarterback you’d rather have in a big spot, and I’d call you crazy no matter who you came up with. They’re this generation’s Bird and Magic.
So with the ingredients for success in place, it stands to reason that both the Colts and Patriots will be back next year. Indianapolis has some decisions to make (most notably potential free agent Dwight Freeney), but could come back with virtually the same team. Plus they play in a division that is annually winnable. The Patriots have as much as $30 million dollars to spend to the salary cap next year (depending on whom you talk to), and will have two first round draft picks thanks to the Deion Branch trade. Barring bad decisions, the Patriots should be battling for the AFC crown next year as well.
I have a funny feeling these two teams might face off once more in next year’s AFC title game. And the location of that game might just be determined by their regular season match-up.
I wrote last week that until the Colts knocked off the Patriots, we don’t have a “true rivalry.” Once the Colts win Super Bowl XLI (and how can they lose at this point?), Manning will no longer be the Wilt Chamberlain to Tom Brady’s Bill Russell. The Colts will be the defending champs and the Patriots will be looking to take back their crown.
It’s not easy at the top. Everyone’s gunning for you and can’t wait to see you fail. They say everyone loves a winner. Until you try to keep winning, that is. And then they don’t love you anymore.
Such is the case with the New England Patriots. Derided for years as one of the laughing stocks of the NFL, it all changed in 2002 when they defeated the heavily-favored “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. It was called a fluke at the time and no one believed that the Patriots would be back. But back they came, winning a total of three Super Bowls in four years. Now head coach Bill Belichick is hailed as a genius and quarterback Tom Brady draws comparisons to the legendary Joe Montana.
Somewhere between that first Super Bowl win and this weekend, the Patriots went from lovable success story to a hated, arrogant, lucky team in the eyes of many. The whole postgame episode with LaDanian Tomlinson last week drove the point home: Everyone hates the Patriots.
But this a team that has shown that they excel when everyone is against them. They are two wins away from accomplishing what only one other team has ever accomplished: Winning four Super Bowls in six years. Only the Pittsburgh Steelers of the ‘70s pulled off that trick. I wonder how that team was viewed nationally at the time. Did people get sick of them winning as well?
There’s a strange combination of things that go on with teams that win multiple championships. First, there’s the human nature element of wanting to see other teams win. It gets boring watching the same team win over and over again. (Unless it’s your team.)
Then there’s the compulsion to tear down whoever is on top. Think about it. Michael Jordan took those two years off between sets of three NBA titles. The scuttlebutt is that it was a hush-hush “suspension” for his gambling problem. Is that the truth, or was it just a tale designed to tear down the top dog? This week’s Patriot-bashing makes me ask the same kind of question. Are they truly an arrogant team full of sore winners or is everyone just trying to find fault with the team of the decade?
Here’s the other problem the Patriots face. They have no true rival. In the ‘80s, the Lakers and Celtics had a great rivalry. And since they took turns winning eight titles (five by Boston and three by Los Angeles), there wasn’t a consensus hatred toward either team. But the Patriots are more comparable to Jordan’s Bulls (six titles in the ‘90s with only Jordan’s semi-retirement preventing eight straight). The only teams that have prevented the Patriots from winning the Super Bowl in the last five years are the Jets and the Broncos. The Jets won in New England in the second-to-last game of the 2002 season, keeping the Patriots out of the playoffs that year. Last season, the Broncos handed the Patriots their first (and so far only) playoff loss under Belichick.
But neither the Jets nor the Broncos won the Super Bowl those years. So it’s the Patriots and everyone else. And don’t call Patriots-Colts a rivalry. To have a true rivalry, both teams need to win big games. It’s akin to calling the pre-2004 Red Sox-Yankees skirmishes a rivalry. If the Colts win this weekend, then we’ll talk. But we all know that’s not going to happen. Peyton Manning and the Colts cannot beat the Patriots in the playoffs. We do all know that, right?
And therein lies the other part of the Patriots-bashing. Check out any NFL message board this weekend and you’ll see what I’m talking about. Patriots fans—after years of torture—are reveling in this team’s fortune. And the lack of (or perceived lack of) national acceptance of this team’s greatness brings out the worst in some Patriots fans.
So the Patriots and their fans become Public Enemy #1. The new Yankees. Hated, despised, and rooted against from all four corners of the globe. To my fellow fans I say this: Enjoy the ride. Years from now we’ll look back on this time as one of the greatest runs in sports history. And we won’t be alone. History has a way of magnifying greatness.
In the meantime, just because everyone else on earth will be rooting for the Saints to beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl, don’t worry about spoiling that magical ending. Just enjoy the ride.
* * *
Championship Weekend Picks
Last week vs. the spread: 2-2 Playoffs: 6-2
The final three playoff games last weekend were all won by 3 points. If this weekend’s games come anywhere close to matching the fun of those games, then the twelve straight hours spent on the couch will all be worth it. Oh, who am I kidding? Any day spent on the couch watching sports is worth it. Settle in for the final Sunday of wall-to-wall football before Super Bowl XLI.
NFC Championship Game New Orleans (+2½) over CHICAGO
Let’s start with the JV game. I sat there last week and wondered how a team with a shaky quarterback, an overrated defense, and a lousy coach could advance to the NFC Championship Game. And then I realized that two of them were playing each other, so one of them had to move on. All I want to know is what the Bears’ coaching staff was thinking during the final 2:15 of regulation. The Seahawks had a 4th down coming up with the clock running and the game tied. The Bears were certainly getting the ball back at some point, and they would either be tied or trailing—and yet they let the clock run down to the two-minute warning instead of taking a timeout. Worse, with less than 15 seconds remaining in regulation and the Seahawks once again facing a 4th down, the Bears waited until the clock ran down to 2 seconds to call a timeout. Of course, that left the Seahawks with enough time to do only one thing: Try to run a Hail Mary play. Talk about brilliant clock management and decision-making.
I’m not going with the Saints because of sentimental reasons . I’m going with the Saints because they’re the better team. They have the better quarterback (by far) and the better coach. When you’ve got those two check marks in your favor, you should win the game, no matter whom (or where) you’re playing.
And for those who think the Saints can’t win in the cold confines of Soldier Field, think about this: The Saints won their last three road games, with two of them coming against playoff opponents. Dome teams might be 0-9 in Championship Games outdoors, but that’s not going to matter. I honestly don’t even think this one will be close. Prediction: Saints 34, Bears 20
AFC Championship Game New England (+3) over INDIANPOLIS
After the Saints are done accepting the trophy in the middle of Soldier Field, it will be time for the match-up of the weekend. Patriots-Colts. I just watched the NFL Network replay of the regular season game these two played. I kept wondering one thing: How on Earth did the Patriots lose this game? Tipped passes, fumbles that went out of bounds, fantastic catches by Colts receivers, and questionable play-calling by the Patriots were the highlights. And the Patriots still had the ball with under two minutes left, down by 7. Their offense is playing at a much higher level now and the defense—which lost Rodney Harrison to injury early in the previous game—has made the adjustments that have made the unit more effective.
Everyone keeps talking about how well the Colts’ defense is playing in the playoffs. But they’ve gone up against a team in the Chiefs that refused to change its play-calling even when running up the middle against a 10-man front wasn’t working, and a team in the Ravens that ran the worst offense in a playoff game I’ve ever seen. What Colts fans should be concerned about is their offense. 23 points against the Chiefs? At home? And no touchdowns against the Ravens last week? It’s not going to get any easier against a defense that just held San Diego—the best offense in the NFL this season—to 21 points.
Last night I watched Super Bowl XXXVI in its entirety (thank you, NFL Network). And I was struck by three things. First, how astoundingly bad the telecast was. Pat Summerall and John Madden were worse than I ever remembered. It felt like a preseason game and they were working out the kinks. It’s hard to believe that was six years ago. If the score weren’t on the screen for the entire game I would have thought it was a game from the ‘80s. Second, U2 is one of the most legendary bands of all time. Other than the Beatles, no other musical group in rock history has grabbed the spotlight so effectively as they did at halftime of that game (when they did a tribute to the victims of 9/11) and during the pregame of the Saints’ opener this year (the first game in New Orleans since Hurricane Katrina). When tragedy hits, bring in U2. They rock the house.
Finally, the third thing that struck me while re-watching Super Bowl XXXVI was the fact that the Patriots beat that year’s best football team by out-coaching, out-scheming, and out-muscling them. The Patriots clearly did not have the better stats (24th in total defense that season) or players. And yet there they were, from the opening play until the final gun, dominating that game.
Brady’s top weapons that day were Troy Brown, David
