The passage of time in the NFL is marked by decades and the teams that tower over the rest of the field. Various teams win titles throughout each decade, but one team always wins the most championships and stands out as the Team of the Decade.
This is the way it’s been ever since the Green Bay Packers rolled to five NFL titles (including wins in the first two Super Bowls) in the 1960s. The Pittsburgh Steelers won four Super Bowls in the ‘70s, the San Francisco 49ers won four Super Bowls in the ‘80s, and the Dallas Cowboys won three Super Bowls in the ‘90s.
With three Super Bowls remaining in this decade (the ‘00s?), the Patriots are poised to claim the latest Team of the Decade designation. If they win this Sunday they will have four Super Bowl titles this decade. The most Super Bowl wins any other team has is one. Even if they were to somehow lose this weekend, only the Colts or Steelers would have a chance of matching their three titles and possessing a decade-long cache of winning. (Sorry, but even if the Ravens or Buccaneers win the next two Super Bowls, or the Giants win the next three, none of them could possibly be considered Team of the Decade.)
That means there’s even more pressure on the Patriots this Sunday. A win gives them the Super Bowl title, the first 19-0 season in NFL history, and Team of the Decade status.
Let’s take a look at the curriculum vitae for each Team of the Decade.
Green Bay Packers (1960s)
From 1960 through 1969, the Green Bay Packers were the class of the NFL. They had just one losing season (1968, the year after head coach Vince Lombardi stepped down) and won their division six times. The Packers won five of the six NFL Championship Games they played, and won the first two Super Bowls in NFL history. The Packers defined what the NFL was all about during the early years.
Best team of the decade: 1962. The ’62 Packers went 13-1, led the league in both offense and defense, outscored their opponents 415-148, and won the NFL Championship on the road, defeating the New York Giants 16-7.
Worst loss of the decade: The 1960 NFL Championship Game. Taking a 13-10 in the 4th quarter, the Eagles returned the ensuing kickoff 58 yards and eventually took a 17-13 lead. The Packers were stopped on the 8-yard line as time expired. The loss was their first (and only) postseason loss under Lombardi.
Defining games of the decade: Super Bowl I (a 35-10 thrashing of the upstart AFL Kansas City Chiefs) and the 1967 NFL Championship Game (the “Ice Bowl,” a 21-17 win over the Dallas Cowboys in sub-zero weather).
If not for the Packers, the Team of the Decade might have been: The Cleveland Browns. The Browns won five division titles in the ‘60s and took home the 1964 NFL Championship. They lost the 1965 Championship to Green Bay and did not return to the big game for the rest of the decade.
Pittsburgh Steelers (1970s)
Head coach Chuck Noll turned the Steelers from a 1-13 team in 1969 into the best team of the ‘70s. They had just two losing seasons (1970 and 1971), won their division eight years in a row, won four of the six AFC Championship Games they played, and won four Super Bowls. The Steel Curtain defense remains one of the iconic symbols of the NFL.
Best team of the decade: 1978. The ’78 Steelers went 14-2, led the league in defense, and had the 5th best offense. They won their first two playoff games by a combined score of 67-15 before defeating the Dallas Cowboys 35-31 in the Super Bowl.
Worst loss of the decade: The 1976 AFC Championship Game. Many people believe that Pittsburgh’s best team of the ‘70s was the ’76 edition. For the third straight year they played the Oakland Raiders in the Championship game, but with running backs Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier (who had combined for over 2,000 yards in the regular season) both out with injuries, the Raiders won 24-7 to advance to the Super Bowl.
Defining games of the decade: 1972 playoff victory over Oakland (that game that featured the “Immaculate Reception”) and Super Bowl XIII (their 35-31 win over Dallas is considered by many to be the best Super Bowl game of all time).
If not for the Steelers, the Team of the Decade might have been: The Oakland Raiders. The Raiders had 10 straight winning seasons under head coach John Madden in the ‘70s, but had just one Super Bowl win to show for their efforts. The Raiders lost playoff games to the Steelers three times in the ‘70s, with the Steelers winning Super Bowl titles twice after knocking off the Raiders in the AFC Championship game.
San Francisco 49ers (1980s)
Bill Walsh took over a 2-14 team in 1978 and turned the 49ers into one of the league’s most respected and envied franchises. The 49ers had just two losing seasons (1980 and 1982), won their division seven times, made the playoffs eight times, won four of the five NFC Championship Games they played, and won four Super Bowls. At the end of their run, Bill Walsh, quarterback Joe Montana, and wide receiver Jerry Rice were all considered with the best that ever coached and played the game.
Best team of the decade: 1984. The ’84 San Francisco 49ers went 15-1 with the league’s best defense and 2nd-best offense (second only to Dan Marino’s record-setting Dolphins). They won their first two playoff games by a combined score of 44-10 before defeating Marino’s Dolphins 38-16 in the Super Bowl.
Worst loss of the decade: The 1983 NFC Championship Game. Although the 49ers only went 10-6 in 1983, they were one win away from the Super Bowl when they traveled to Washington to take on the Redskins. Trailing 21-0 in the 4th quarter, the 49ers scored three quick touchdowns and tied the game 21-21 with less than seven minutes to play. But the Redskins—aided by a controversial pass interference call—marched 78 yards to set up kicker Mark Moseley for a 25-yard game-winning field goal. Moseley—who had missed four field goals throughout the game—nailed this one and sent the Redskins to the Super Bowl.
Defining games of the decade: The 1982 NFC Championship Game (the game that featured “The Catch”) and Super Bowl XXIII (Montana leads a 92-yard touchdown drive with 3:10 to go in the game).
If not for the 49ers, the Team of the Decade might have been: The Chicago Bears. The Bears won one Super Bowl in the ‘80s but lost to the 49ers twice in the NFC Championship Game (including once at home). The 49ers won the Super Bowl both times.
Dallas Cowboys (1990s)
The once-proud Cowboys were 3-13 during legendary head coach Tom Landry’s final season and fell to 1-15 in Jimmie Johnson’s first season. But three different head coaches—Johnson, Barry Switzer, and Chan Gailey—would lead the Cowboys to winning seasons in all but three years (1990, 1997, and 1999), six division titles, eight playoff appearances, three wins in four NFC Championship Games, and three Super Bowl titles.
Best team of the decade: 1992. The Cowboys went 13-3 and finished with the 2nd best offense and 5th best defense in the league. They won the NFC Championship Game in San Francisco and dismantled the Buffalo Bills 52-17 in the Super Bowl.
Worst loss of the decade: The 1994 NFC Championship Game. The Cowboys played the 49ers in the Championship Game for the 3rd straight year, and quarterback Troy Aikman entered the game undefeated in the playoffs (7-0). Aikman’s first interception of the game was returned for a touchdown. Wide receiver Cowboys wide receiver Michael Irvin lost a fumble on the next Dallas possession and kick returner Kevin Williams fumbled a kickoff, allowing San Francisco to take a 21-0 1st quarter lead, on their way to a 38-28 victory.
Defining games of the decade: The 1992 NFC Championship Game (Dallas won the game in San Francisco to advance to the franchise’s first Super Bowl in 14 years) and the 1995 NFC Championship Game (one year after losing to the 49ers in the penultimate game, the Cowboys withstood Brett Favre and the surging Packers 38-27 to advance to their third Super Bowl of the decade).
If not for the Cowboys, the Team of the Decade might have been: The San Francisco 49ers. With one Super Bowl and two NFC Championship Game losses to the Cowboys, the team of the ‘90s could have been the same as the team of the ‘80s if not for Dallas.
New England Patriots (2000s)
The New England Patriots have seven straight winning seasons, six division titles, six playoff appearances, four wins in five AFC Championship Games, and three Super Bowl titles. They also own the first undefeated season in 35 years and head to the Super Bowl this week in search of their fourth title of the decade.
Best team of the decade: 2007. The Patriots went 16-0 this season and are in the discussion as one of the greatest teams in NFL history.
Worst loss of the decade: The 2006 AFC Championship Game. The Patriots led the Indianapolis Colts 21-6 at halftime but the Colts scored 32 second half points on the way to a 38-34 win.
Defining games of the decade: The 2001 Divisional Playoff (“The Snow Game” or “The Tuck Rule Game”) and Super Bowl XXXVI (one of the greatest upsets in Super Bowl history).
If not for the Patriots, the Team of the Decade might have been: Either the Indianapolis Colts or the Pittsburgh Steelers. Both have one Super Bowl title and two playoff losses to the Patriots.
This year’s NFL regular season brought us the renaissance of a legend, a team rising above the death of one of their own players, the craziest field goal we’ve ever seen, one of the best in-game snowstorms we’ve ever seen, a rookie sensation taking the league by storm, a mere 9 losses registered by the league’s top 4 teams (with three of those losses coming in games against each other), and heavily-hyped games that lived up the hype.
Oh, and the first team in NFL history to go 16-0 (more on whether or not the Patriots’ season was the greatest of all time in a moment).
Maybe I’m in the “whatever is new is always great” club today, but the NFL season that concluded last week sure seemed like one of the best to come along in ages. Brett Favre’s transformation from old man winter (71.8 passer rating with 38 TDs, 47 INTs, and 12 wins the previous two seasons) to the lion in winter (95.7 passer rating with 28 TDs, 15 INTs, and 13 wins this season) was an incredible sight to behold.
Just as incredible was watching the Washington Redskins—who lost Sean Taylor, one of their best defensive players to a shooting death—go 4-0 after regrouping and make the playoffs. And Taylor was elected to the Pro Bowl after his death.
In Week 11, Cleveland kicker Phil Dawson kicked a game-tying 51-yard field goal that hit the left upright, went through the uprights, hit the support post behind the crossbar, then bounded back onto the field. To the naked eye, it looked no good. But after a seemingly endless delay the officials—without the aid of replay, which isn’t used on field goals—decided correctly that the field goal was indeed good. The Browns went on to win in overtime. Never seen anything like that, have we?
Four weeks later the Browns and Bills locked up in an 8-0 game in a veritable blizzard. Of course the hero of the game was kicker Phil Dawson, who connected from 35 and 49 yards on a day in which staying on your feet was difficult, never mind using them to score points.
Speaking of feet, Vikings rookie Adrian Peterson used his to rush for 1,341 yards in 14 games, ending the season with a yards-per-rush average of 5.6. And in a Week 9 game against San Diego, he set the NFL single-game rushing record with 296 yards.
This was the year that the cream rose to the top. The Patriots, Cowboys, Packers, and Colts combined for a record of 55-9 (52-6 if you take out the games against each other). This season is tied with 1998 for best record among the top 4 teams in the 16-game season era (the Vikings, Falcons, Broncos, and Jets combined for 9 losses that season).
And you want big games? Meaningful games between top teams that live up to the hype? How about the Patriots throttling the Chargers in Week 2 after “spygate” erupted? Or the Patriots beating the Cowboys in one of the few 5-0 vs. 5-0 games in league history? Or Green Bay winning in Denver on Monday night on a Favre overtime touchdown pass? Want more? The 8-0 Patriots coming back from 10 down in the 4th quarter to beat the 7-0 Colts springs to mind. Or the Chargers beating those same Colts the next week on Sunday night. And the Cowboys knocking off the Packers on a Thursday night NFL Network special. Finally, the Patriots putting the finishing touches on an undefeated season by coming back from 12 down to beat the Giants in a “meaningless” game watched by 34.5 million people on three networks.
NBC’s flex schedule worked perfectly this season, giving us week after week of important games. The NFL Network tried in vain to find its place on the American television set but needed an assist in the final week. Even the Dolphins’ run at infamy made this season special. Call me crazy, but it just might have been the best season ever.
Which brings us back to the Patriots. Their remarkable run to 16-0 just might have been the greatest NFL season of all time. The detractors will point out that the Patriots faced the Dolphins and Jets twice (those two teams went a combined 5-27). But division rivals and 4-12 squads are the kinds of teams that usually derail these kinds of runs at history (the 1990 49ers lost their first game to the 5-11 Rams). I’ll make no apologies for the teams the Patriots faced this season.
As a matter of fact, they played and beat four division winners (two on the road), six playoff teams, and eight teams that finished 8-8 or better. If not for the Patriots, the Browns, Bills, and Eagles might have made the playoffs this year. The Redskins were able to rebound from their loss at the hands of the Patriots. It will be interesting to see how the Giants fare following last week’s showdown.
What else made this Patriots season so special? They outscored their opponents by 315 points. 10 other teams scored fewer than 315 points. The seasons Tom Brady and Randy Moss had. (Can we call the trade of a 4th round pick for Randy Moss the greatest NFL trade of all time?)
Or how about how in their four closest games (against the Colts, Eagles, Ravens, and Giants), they outscored their opponents 46-21 in the 4th quarter? Or the fact that their largest deficit of the season—12 points—came with 24 minutes and 12 seconds remaining in game 16?
Their 44 punts were the fewest punts by a team in a 16-game season. The previous record of fewest punts by a Patriots team was 49. That was set in the strike-shortened 1982 season when the team played 9 games.
Wes Welker was a joy to watch. The relentless passing attack was often poetry in motion. Their video game-esque demolitions of the Dolphins, Redskins, and Bills, sandwiched around the win in Indianapolis, were some of the most amazing performances the league has ever seen.
Prior to the Colts game, I wrote: “Tom Brady has thrown for 20 touchdowns and the Patriots have outscored their opponents 179-45. In the first half.” For the season, those numbers were: 32 touchdowns for Brady, and a 333-137 advantage over their opponents in the first half. Only Tony Romo (36) threw more touchdowns on the season than Brady did in the first half. The 333 first half points the Patriots scored were one fewer than the Redskins and Buccaneers scored all season. And the Titans only scored 301. Those are three playoff teams.
The numbers are staggering, the competition was formidable, and the season was unforgettable. It was a season for the ages, and quite possibly the greatest season of all time.NFL Playoff Round 1 Selections
Washington (+3½) over Seattle Everyone likes the Redskins for the emotion factor, and other than that the only reason to like them in this game is that in the last three years 2 underdogs covered in Round 1, so this one will be one of mine. I know Seattle is tough at home and Washington quarterback is Todd Collins is untested, but I’ll go with Washington anyway. One more week of the feel good story for Joe Gibbs and his troops. Pick: Redskins 21, Seahawks 20
Pittsburgh (+2½) over Jacksonville I’ve gone back and forth on this one all week. There’s no way the Steelers could lose at home to the Jaguars twice, go with Pittsburgh. Jacksonville’s playing much better football than Pittsburgh, go with Jacksonville. Mike Tomlin’s playoff inexperience. Jacksonville’s recent playoff losses. Which way to go? I’m going with Pittsburgh to win a close one at home. Pick: Steelers 26, Jaguars 23
Tampa Bay (-2½) over New York Giants That was a valiant effort by the Giants last week and an impressive performance against the undefeated Patriots. But I don’t think they have a chance in this one. Add it all up: the starters played a playoff-type game last week while Tampa’s been resting for two weeks; when the Patriots pressured Eli Manning in the 2nd half, he went 9-14 for 70 yards with one interception, one center-QB fumble, and one sack—expect a lot of pressure this week from the Bucs; it’s Jon Gruden and Jeff Garcia against Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning. Sounds like a Tampa win to me. Pick: Buccaneers 29, Giants 15
San Diego (-10) over Tennessee Four of the last five teams favored by 7 or more in the 1st round of the playoffs won and covered. And this Chargers team is far superior in talent to the Titans. As a matter of fact, I’m not even sure how the Titans are in the playoffs. They scored just four more points than they allowed, had four more turnovers than forced turnovers, and got just 9 touchdown passes against 17 interceptions out of Vince Young. Their only win against a playoff team (and the Colts game last week doesn’t count) was way back in Week 1 when they beat Jacksonville. Not even Chargers coach Norv Turner can stop the Chargers from blowing out the Titans in this one. Pick: Chargers 38, Titans 13
If these results happen, it sets us up for a pretty good Round 2 with Pats-Steelers, Colts-Chargers, Cowboys-Redskins, and Packers-Bucs. Well, three intriguing games anyway.
Mitch Albom had his Tuesdays with Morrie. The Missus and I have our Sundays with Andrew Siciliano.
Let’s start at the beginning, shall we? Back in 2001 we switched from cable to DirecTV. Why? The cost savings was the number one reason. But a close second was a little something called the NFL Sunday Ticket. This package allowed me to watch every single NFL game that’s on every single weekend. No longer did I have to scan the TV listings each week only to be disappointed that I would have to suffer through a game between two crappy teams while the game of the day was being shown in someone else’s house. No, now I had the power.
For six NFL seasons I reveled each Sunday with the NFL package. Feet up, clicker in hand, I was able to flip from game to game, catching all of the NFL action known to man. Then we got HD. And I didn’t think life could get any better.
Until we met Andrew.
I was a little leery at first of this creation that DirecTV calls the Red Zone Channel. The stated purposed was to show any game—live—once one team entered the red zone (inside their opponents’ 20-yard line). I thought, “There’s no way this will be better than flipping around.” And, “How on earth could they pull this off?”
Shocking but true, they do pull it off. And I haven’t watched a full non-Patriots Sunday afternoon game since.
Who is Andrew, you ask? That would be Andrew Siciliano, the host of the Red Zone Channel. Andrew sits at a desk staring at a bank of 15 television screens and previews the upcoming games of the day. As soon as the first game kicks off, he “grabs the remote” and takes us live to that game. From that point forward—whenever another game seems more appealing—he “bounces out” into that game. If one game is about to head to a commercial, he takes us to another game. Immediately. As a matter of fact, this past Sunday, I saw my first advertisement of any kind a full hour-and-a-half into the day’s action. At that point, with most games heading into halftime, we go live to Andrew’s studio and a voiceover reads, “The Red Zone Channel. Brought to you by Sony.” Then Andrew shows highlights from the first half. That’s it. That brief ad for Sony (and the Best Buy logo that is displayed when a final box score from a game is flashed on the screen) is all the advertising I see all day. (There’s no way that can continue—DirecTV has to think of a way to make more money from the advertisers, but I’ll enjoy it while it lasts.)
And Andrew somehow pulls off this near-impossible job of watching as many as 10 games at once almost seamlessly. A team is about to punt? Andrew breaks in and says, “We don’t show you punts here at the Red Zone Channel. Unless Devin Hester is involved.” The announcers for a particular game throw it back to New York for a highlight from another game? Andrew breaks in and says, “You just saw that. Let’s grab the remote and bounce out to another game.” He’s quick, he’s funny, and he’s got what seems like a dream job, as hard as it probably is to do.
The only complaint I have for Andrew? Sometimes he quits early. Some Sundays around 5:30, when the second round of Sunday games are going on, he lets us know that he’s shutting down for the day. He tells us what channel to find all the games on, but he’s out of there. I understood it the Sunday that the Patriots were playing the Colts—I mean who wanted to watch Houston-Oakland or Cleveland-Seattle when the Game of the Millennium was being played? But on a typical Sunday afternoon, I want Andrew running the switchboard and taking me around the league. When I’m spending 10 straight hours on the couch, expending energy by using the remote is pretty taxing.
Other than that, I have no complaints. The Missus and I love our Sundays with Andrew. He does all the heavy lifting, and we don’t have to search around for the game of the day. And with the Patriots playing a night game seemingly every week, we’ve had some time to really bond with Andrew and appreciate the man’s dedication to the NFL.
Dwelling on our latest find got me thinking about the revolutionary technological advancements that have come our way in the last 10 years. And I wondered where I would place Andrew’s channel. Let’s check out one man’s list:
The Sports in a Can Top 10 Technological Advancements of the Last 10 Years
1. The Internet 2. Email 3. Cellphones 4. TiVo 5. Wireless Internet access 6. High Definition television 7. NFL Sunday Ticket 8. iTunes 9. Tollbooth transponders 10. The Red Zone Channel
This list assumes the technological advancement had an impact on me, personally, so hybrid cars don’t make the list. Not yet, anyway. Maybe my next car. And if you want to quibble with the timing of some of them, so be it. I don’t remember when Al Gore invented the Internet, I just don’t recall it impacting my life pre-1997. Same goes for email. And cellphones have come a looong way since you had to carry around a phone booth to make a call. Those are easily my top three because each can end the phrase: “Do you remember what we did before _____?” TiVo has worked its way up to #4 and is nearing life-changing potential.
Andrew’s channel lands in 10th position and could threaten tollbooth transponders in the near future. That’s how life-altering it is.
Last week we watched a whiparound that included Jacksonville pulling away from Buffalo, Oakland upsetting Kansas City, Seattle holding on against St. Louis, and Tampa Bay holding on against Washington. All live. On a Sunday when the top five teams in the NFL weren’t playing, the excitement level was still high in the Sports in a Can living room.
We’ve got five more Sundays with Andrew before the Red Zone Channel goes dark for the winter. We’ll be enjoying every last second.Week 13 NFL Picks
DALLAS (-7) over Green Bay ST. LOUIS (-3) over Atlanta Buffalo (+5½) over WASHINGTON MINNESOTA (-3½) over Detroit TENNESSEE (-3½) over Houston INDIANAPOLIS (-6½) over Jacksonville MIAMI (-1) over NY Jets San Diego (-5½) over KANSAS CITY Seattle (+3) over PHILADELPHIA San Francisco (+3) over CAROLINA Cleveland (+1) over ARIZONA Denver (-3½) over OAKLAND CHICAGO (+1½) over NY Giants Tampa Bay (+3) over NEW ORLEANS PITTSBURGH (-7) over Cincinnati New England (-20½) over BALTIMORE
Aaahh, Thanksgiving. The turkey. The stuffing. The family get-togethers. The tryptophan. And the football.
Did you ever wonder how football became entrenched as a Thanksgiving day tradition? Between high school games in the morning and NFL games in the afternoon, it’s a wonder the pigskin isn’t part of Thanksgiving decorative décor. The History Channel is running a special on the Mayflower’s journey to the New World, and I’m thinking of tuning in to see if the Pilgrims ran off the boat and through a giant football helmet. After learning how to grow corn from the Indians, they surely taught their new friends the value of the West Coast offense, no?
And so another Thanksgiving week is upon us. The only three-day work week of the year. The only annual Thursday holiday. The busiest travel days of the year. And wall-to-wall football.
We’re going with nothing but picks this week…enjoy your Thanksgiving
Thanksgiving games
Miami at Detroit (12:30 p.m.) The choices for this time slot were either Miami at Detroit or Buffalo at Detroit. Not exactly “white or dark meat,” is it? How does an early dinner sound to everyone? Pick: Miami (-3)
Tampa Bay at Dallas (4:15 p.m.) All of a sudden, the Cowboys are right back in the thick of the NFC playoff race. Although I have to tell you, when Dallas had 1st-and-goal from the 8 early in the 4th quarter, I turned to the Missus and said, “This is where Cowboys quarterbacks usually throw interceptions.” Two plays later there was Romo—doing his best Bledsoe imitation—throwing a pick. It was nullified by a penalty, the Cowboys ran it in and knocked off the previously undefeated Colts. Something to think about if you’re a Dallas fan, though… Pick: Tampa Bay (+11)
Denver at Kansas City (8:00 p.m.) For years, I begged the NFL to let Detroit and Dallas play each other on Thanksgiving every four years and schedule a really exciting match-up for the second game. The NFL did me one better by deciding to schedule a third game for Thanksgiving night. Of course, you need to be one of the 15 people in the country that actually has the NFL Network in order to watch this game. Pick: Denver (+1)
Sunday games
Arizona at Minnesota The triumphant return of Denny Green to the Metrodome! Matt Leinart against Brad Johnson! Lots of guys in the stands dressed like Vikings! (Forget it. It’s not working. There’s nothing exciting whatsoever about this game.) Pick: Arizona (+6)
Carolina at Washington Do you think Joe Gibbs misses the NASCAR days? By the way, I don’t know how they’ll pull it off, but the Panthers need to go 1-5 the rest of the way. Why? Over the last four years they’ve won 7, 11, 7, and 11 games. This is a 7 year. They understand that, right? And if they do it, this would be another opportunity for 7-Eleven to get in on the naming rights action. This week, it’s the Washington Redskins against the Carolina 7-Eleven Panthers! Pick: Washington (+4½)
Cincinnati at Cleveland This all-Ohio clash has me thinking about Saturday’s thrilling Ohio State-Michigan game. As exciting as that game was, and as thrilling the prospect of two more games between top 6 BCS teams over the next two weeks is, the BCS apologists are missing the point. Sure, due to a scheduling quirk, it appears that the BCS works this year. But a playoff system would guarantee multiple games between the top 4, 8, or more teams every year. Pick: Cleveland (+3)
Houston at N.Y. Jets An inconsistent, up-and-down team travels to play one of New York’s football teams. Pick: N.Y. Jets (-6)
Jacksonville at Buffalo An inconsistent, up-and-down team travels to play one of New York’s football teams. (This entry was brought to you by the television show Daybreak and the movie Déjà Vu.) Pick: Buffalo (+3)
New Orleans at Atlanta Reggie Bush only needs 124 yards rushing per game for the rest of the season for me to lose The Bet. Pick: Atlanta (-3)
Pittsburgh at Baltimore “Save the cheerleader. Save the world.” Ever since I compared Ben Roethlisberger to the indestructible cheerleader on Heroes, the Steelers have gone 2-3 and Big Ben has thrown as many interceptions (10) as touchdowns. His super powers will be severely tested against the evil Baltimore Ravens this week. Pick: Baltimore (-3)
San Francisco at St. Louis If the 49ers win and the Seahawks lose, the 49ers will be in first place in the NFC West. (No, that’s not a misprint.) Pick: San Francisco (+5½)
Oakland at San Diego I realize that Fantasy Football is huge and the folks that show the games and pregame and halftime shows need to somehow address this. But if you’re playing Fantasy Football, are you waiting until Sunday morning for Ron Jaworski, Howie Long, or Shannon Sharpe to tell you whom to play? And are you taking notes when the ticker runs stats such as “Vinatieri 1-1 FG 1-1 XP?” I’m thinking no. Fantasy Football players get their information on the Web and don’t need any help from people on TV. (By the way, I’d start LaDanian Tomlinson this week. He’s pretty good.) Pick: San Diego (-13½)
Chicago at New England The game of the weekend. The Patriots have outscored two NFC North opponents 66-7. The Bears have stormed out to a 9-1 record and could actually clinch their division this weekend if everything goes right. Meanwhile, Gillette Stadium has the new fangled FieldTurf this week instead of the mud pit that used to be there. I’m thinking of replacing my own lawn with FieldTurf. It sure would save me time with the lawnmower. It’s probably not fun to try to rake, though. Pick: New England (-3)
N.Y. Giants at Tennessee The Titans used to be called the Oilers. The Edmonton Oilers’ greatest star was Wayne Gretzky. Gretzky is now the head coach of the Phoenix Coyotes. The Coyotes used to be called the Jets. The Jets used to be called the Titans and play in the same stadium as the Giants. Weird, huh? Pick: N.Y. Giants (-3)
Sunday Night Football Philadelphia at Indianapolis The “flex schedule” that NBC is using this year is working out pretty well so far. This one looked a lot more intriguing before the Colts lost their first game and the Eagles lost Donovan McNabb. Pick: Philadelphia (+9)
Monday Night Football
Green Bay at Seattle Don’t you wish there could be a “flex schedule” situation for Monday Night Football? Me, too. Pick: Green Bay (+9½)
Last week I compared the AFC teams to TV shows. This week, it’s the NFC’s turn to go head-to-head with TV (plus two bonus ones for the World Series).
NFC East
CSI: New York New York Giants (4-2)
I never jumped on the CSI bandwagon. CSI guys are usually the geeks who find the clues that help the better-looking cops solve the crimes. But in the CSI series, the geeks are the stars—and they also solve the entire crime single-handedly. Every CSI show seems the same to me. Just like the Giants, Cowboys, and Redskins are all very similar to me right now. A quarterback who scares you to death more often than impresses you. A crazy teammate who runs off at the mouth whenever possible (Jeremy Shockey, Terrell Owens). Three teams that win games they should lose and lose games they should win. The Eagles might win this division by default.
ER Philadelphia Eagles (4-3)
NBC was ready to pull the plug on this one and then…boom! Right there! People are watching it again. Everyone expected this show to disappear into the sunset. And yet there they are, holding onto their timeslot. It’s the show that everyone at other networks still secretly fears. The Eagles’ three losses have come thusly: an overtime loss after blowing a 17-point 4th quarter lead; a 3-point loss in the new toughest place to play (New Orleans); and a 2-point loss following the 3rd-longest field goal in history. This is the team everyone else in the NFC secretly fears right now.
CSI: Crime Scene Investigation Dallas Cowboys (3-3)
Let the Drew Bledsoe-Tony Romo-Bill Parcells-Jerry Jones fun begin. And you thought Terrell Owens made this the best show on TV? This is getting good now. A little goofy and over the top (just like the original CSI), but fun nonetheless.
CSI: Miami Washington Redskins (2-5)
I have nothing more to add. See above for the CSI info. See below (the bottom of the NFC East standings) to see how the ‘Skins are doing.
NFC North
Grey’s Anatomy Chicago Bears (6-0)
The #1 show on TV has to go to the current darlings of the NFL. And just like the TV show, I can’t figure out how the Bears are doing it. Is Rex Grossman really this good? Or is the guy we saw in Arizona on Monday Night Football the real Rex Grossman. I can’t imagine the Bears will keep this pace up. Just as I can’t see Grey’s Anatomy staying the hot show for too long. I love those who do these power rankings and have debates about who the best team in football is. It’s October. Talk to me in Januarywhen this team goes home early. Again.
NCIS Minnesota Vikings (4-2)
I can’t explain it. It’s goofy—but not too goofy. It’s serious—but not too serious. It features Mark Harmon, who looked to be the next superstar at one time. (Moonlighting, Summer School, The Presidio. Harmon was this close to being a superstar.) Now he’s the big fish on a medium-sized TV show. Somehow the cast pulls it all together to make a show that’s fun, believable, entertaining—and Top 10 in the ratings. The 2006 Vikings—who no longer live in the shadows of Randy Moss, the sex boat scandal, and the former coaching staff—are 4-2 and challenging the Bears for the NFC North crown. Harmon plays Brad Johnson in this show.
The New Adventures of Old Christine Green Bay Packers (2-4)
Remember the glory days? Elaine and Jerry and George and Kramer. Every once in a while, Julia Louis-Dreyfus is funny now, but it’s just not the same. Every once in a while, the Packers can put it all together and win a game. But the days of 10+ wins and Super Bowl appearances are long gone. Seriously, Brett. Enough’s enough.
Football Night in America Detroit Lions (1-6)
Let’s get the Lions out of the way quickly. They’re awful. Their only remaining winnable game will be the much-hyped Lions-Cardinals match-up in Week 11. The loser of that one will be The Biggest Loser—and receive the number one draft pick. Now, on to Football Night in America. Whose idea was this? NFL Primetime was the greatest football wrap-up show of all time, but because ESPN doesn’t have the Sunday night game anymore, they don’t have the all-access highlight show that we’re used to. Instead NBC has it. Football Night in America is no NFL Primetime. On Primetime, you’d get a 3-minute package of highlights per game, complete with music. And Chris Berman’s nicknames and Tom Jackson’s analysis. It was on for 90 glorious minutes. Football Night in America? It’s an extended halftime show with useless banter among a group of goofy guys on leather seats.
NFC South
Shark New Orleans Saints (5-1)
Another lawyer show. Another movie actor making the jump to TV. I almost didn’t even add this one to the TiVo list this year. But you know what? It’s good. Really good. Neither hokey nor preachy, it gets the job done and makes me want to watch again. The Saints are 5-1. Their home games are must-see events. They’re the unexpected good show of the season. (And who would have guessed this would happen with Reggie Bush on pace for just 523 rushing yards? I feel better and better about The Bet every day.)
Jericho Atlanta Falcons (4-2)
The most unique show on TV goes to the most unique team in the NFL. The Falcons rush for about 4,000 yards per game. Michael Vick is one of the most exciting players in the game. But then sometimes they go out and do something like lose at home to the Giants 19-3. I can’t explain it. It’s kind of like a nuclear explosion went off one town over and no one can figure out what to do. Actually, it’s exactly like that.
Smallville Carolina Panthers (4-3)
Their best players are a quarterback no one could pick out of a lineup (Jake Delhomme) and a 5'9" wideout who catches everything (Steve Smith). (Smallville. Get it?)
The Nine Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4)
OK, something happened inside the bank. Actually, a lot of things happened considering two people died, everyone’s completely screwed up now, and the hostage crisis lasted 52 hours. But if they’re only going to show us what happened in the bank 5 minutes at a time, I fear this show will be cancelled before we ever learn very much. Something crazy happens to the Bucs every week. Quarterback Chris Simms was almost killed after a sack one week. Matt Bryant kicked a 62-yard field goal last week. You never really know what’s going to happen—nor if they’ll turn the lights out in Tampa before the playoffs start.
NFC West
Dancing With the Stars Seattle Seahawks (4-2)
First of all, “stars” is a little deceiving. In three years, the biggest “stars” on this show have been J. Peterman from Seinfeld, Nick Lachey’s brother, and Screech from Saved by the Bell. (Fine, it’s Slater. But you get the point.) Something’s making this the #3 show on TV right now, though. The Seattle Seahawks? No big names there either. And yet they made it to the Super Bowl last year. Of course, maybe if they had Emmitt Smith to rush for them, things might be different.
Justice St. Louis Rams (4-2)
Sometimes a show comes along that you really don’t want to admit you like, but you do anyway. That’s Justice. It’s completely over the top, the acting is awful, the plots are atrocious, and I sit wondering how the heck this drivel ever got on the air. But it’s completely absorbing. The Rams are no longer the Greatest Show on Turf. But they can still be fun to watch.
Survivor San Francisco 49ers (2-4)
The show that put reality TV on the map. Once the most dominant show TV, now it’s reduced to a sideshow gimmick (“let’s separate the camps by race”). It’s a sad state of affairs for society, TV, and life in general. Ask any 49er fan to show you his autographed 1990 Montana jersey and he’ll tell you all about it.
Desperate Housewives Arizona Cardinals (1-6)
So much promise. You remember it being good at one point but you’re not sure when that was. The plots make no sense. You keep waiting for it to get better and yet it gets worse. But mostly you keep watching just to see something crazy happen. Yep, that’s the Cardinals in a nutshell.
The World Series
Supernatural St. Louis Cardinals (3-1)
If they win the World Series, they’ll do so after winning two fewer games than the previous worst all-time champion, the 1987 Twins, who beat the Cardinals that year. They almost blew a 7½ game lead in 11 days. And yet here they are, one win away from hoisting the trophy.
Friday Night Smackdown! Detroit Tigers (1-3)
First of all, can everyone stop calling the Tigers a feel-good story? Where’s this angle coming from? The manager’s got a World Series ring already and most of the players on the team are under 30. The team hasn’t made the playoffs in 19 years—and this is due to a complete mismanagement of the team and its players. I’m missing the Hollywood story here. And then there’s Kenny Rogers, a de####able human being who topped off his lackluster career by showing a national television audience that he cheats. Anyone who thinks otherwise is either a Tigers fan or blind (or maybe both). But in Major League Baseball’s continuing attempt to become the new WWE, no one does anything about it. Why don’t they just come out with new rules that penalize guys that don’t use performance-enhancing substances, and let the pitchers and hitters do whatever they want to the ball at all times? Now that would make for riveting television.
NFL Week 8 Picks
GREEN BAY (-4) over Arizona CINCINNATI (-3½) over Atlanta NEW ORLEANS (-1½) over Baltimore TENNESSEE (-3) over Houston Jacksonville (+7½) over PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO (-15½) over San Francisco KANSAS CITY (-4) over Seattle Tampa Bay (+9½) over NY GIANTS St. Louis (+9½) over SAN DIEGO DENVER (-3) over Indianapolis NY Jets (+1½) over CLEVELAND Pittsburgh (-9) over OAKLAND CAROLINA (-5½) over Dallas New England (-2) over MINNESOTA
The important thing to remember as a player, fan, or gambler, is never to get too excited about a win or too despondent about a loss. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. You can’t make an omelet without breaking some eggs. We have miles to go before we sleep. The only thing we have to fear is fear itself. I’m sure one of those old expressions works here.
And so here we are after Week 1 of the NFL season. Are you still in your elimination pool, or did you pick Kansas City or Carolina? Did your fantasy team get a surprise gift from Chad Pennington, or did you rue the fact that you don’t have LaDainian Tomlinson? Again. And how’s that Reggie Bush bet working out so far? (58 yards rushing, on pace for 928 this season.)
It’s only one week. That’s what we have to keep telling ourselves. The folks at Sports Illustrated could still get their predicted Super Bowl match-up. Even if Carolina was shut out at home and the Dolphins’ offense looked as if they just met in the huddle for the first time. (“Hi, I’m Daunte. Yes, you can pet my seeing-eye dog. What’s your name?”) And yours truly was left to wonder how two of my first predictions of the year—that the Colts would lose to the Giants and that both the Giants and Cowboys would win their first five games—could go awry so quickly.
But we carry on. That’s what we do. Even with a pathetic 5-11 opening week, I’m not feeling too low. It’s a long season, and every week is a learning process. So we’ll go game by game this week and try to apply what we learned from watching last week’s games.
Buffalo at Miami (-6½)
The Bills’ defense might just be better than I thought. And it’s the only way they’ll win any games, because J.P. Losman is awful. How can you take a safety late in the 4th quarter of a tie game? And who’s calling the plays for the Bills, anyway, their 87-year-old owner? Back-to-back 5 step drops into the end zone? Brilliant. And yes, the Dolphins will play better. But not that much better. Pick: Dolphins
Carolina at Minnesota (E)
One of my bright spots last week was nailing the Panthers’ loss in Week 1. They just might be in an 0-2 hole after this one. Pick: Vikings
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-10½)
When assessing the Browns I forgot that Charlie Frye was their quarterback. If you just said, “Who?” then you know what I mean. And I might just have underestimated the Bengals, especially this early in the season. The inevitable implosion will probably come much later. For now they’ll keep riding the wave of emotion of having Carson Palmer back. Pick: Bengals
Detroit at Chicago (-8½)
Let’s not get too excited about the Bears’ opening week performance against the Packers. Their first real test comes next week against the Vikings. But if they’re looking ahead, this might end up being a trap game for them. The Lions’ defense looked great against Seattle last week. But maybe Seattle’s just not that good. This one could be a 0-0 tie. Pick: Lions
Houston at Indianapolis (-13½)
There are times when this Colts offense still looks like a video game. That was a big road win last week, but Indy had to settle for a lot of field goals. (Think they’re happy they’ve got Adam Vinatieri instead of Vanderjerk—who didn’t even suit up for the Cowboys this week?) The Texans looked good last week. For about 10 minutes. I can’t believe the spread is so low on this game. I’d still take the Colts giving 20. Pick: Colts
New Orleans (-2) at Green Bay
Which is Brett Favre reconsidering more: his “this is the most talented team I’ve ever been on” quote or his not retiring? When the Saints finally play a good team (next week), we’ll be able to assess how good they are. Pick: Saints
New York Giants at Philadelphia (-3)
I’m not backing down. The Giants will win a ton of games. And the Eagles will lose a ton of games. No matter what I witnessed last week. Pick: Giants
Oakland at Baltimore (-12½)
If you never show up at all, can it be said that you quit on your coach? Is there another phrase we can use for the Raiders of 2006? Let’s call them unconscientious objectors. Meanwhile, you gotta like what you saw from the Ravens last week. The defense looked inspired, Steve McNair guided the offense like a well-oiled machine, and head coach Brian Billick was as smug as ever. You gotta like it—unless you hate the Ravens. Pick: Ravens
Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-5½)
What the heck was that from the Bucs last week? An aberration? Do they bounce back this week against the Falcons, who might just play a letdown game after a big win in Carolina? Call me crazy, but I might just pick the road team every time Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Carolina play each other. Pick: Bucs
Arizona at Seattle (-7)
The Cards’ offense gave us what we expected (300+ yards passing from Warner, 73 yards rushing from James, and 195 yards receiving for Fitzgerald and Bolden). I’m just not sure their defense will stop anyone this year. Let’s call ‘em the Greatest Show in the Desert. Seattle, meanwhile, what can I say? They’re destined not to make the playoffs. It’s not their fault; it’s fate. Pick: Cardinals
St. Louis (-3) at San Francisco
There’s not enough money nor alcohol in the world to make me watch or talk about this game. Pick: Rams
Kansas City at Denver (-11)
For Kansas City, it’s the great unknown: injuries. For Denver, it’s the other great unknown: Jake Plummer’s performance. Pick: Chiefs
New England (-6) at New York Jets
The Jets barely beat a bad Titans team (and almost blew the game). Settle down Fireman Jim. For the Patriots, last week was a gut-check win. Pick: Patriots
Tennessee at San Diego (-11½)
The Chargers’ first three weeks look like this: at Oakland, Tennessee, Bye. Or, put in the immortal words of N’Sync: Bye, Bye, Bye. Pick: Chargers
Washington at Dallas (-6)
Drew, Drew, Drew. Will things never change? It’s almost as if there were two Drews: the Good Drew and the Evil Drew. The Good Drew recognizes coverages and utilizes the talent he has to lead his team to 10 quick points. Then Evil Drew shows up, firing the ball off the wrong foot while stumbling backward, trying to make impossible, ill-advised throws. For Washington, a close loss such as the one that they had tells you a lot about the kind of team they are. And not in a good way. Pick: Cowboys
Monday Night Football Pittsburgh (-1½) at Jacksonville
Charlie Batch, Ben Roethlisberger, does it matter who quarterbacks the Steelers? Not if they keep playing defense the way they did last week. By the way, I’m not spending a lot of time thinking about this game, because I know I’m going to pick the winner. Although I was 2-11 on Sunday last week, I went 3-0 on Thursday and Monday. I have the Midas touch on all days that don’t start with “Sunday!” Pick: Jaguars
NFL prognosticating is like raising children. We all—parents, experts, and extended family members—think we’re good at it, but does anyone really know what they’re talking about?
The “parents” in this analogy would be general managers, coaches, and even the players, themselves. Ask any of them how their team will do this year and they’ll probably tell you they’re Super Bowl-bound. Our children can do no wrong. Brett Favre, for example, said with a straight face that this is the most talented team he’s been on in the NFL. This is akin to the parents of a Harvard Rhodes Scholar telling you how wonderful their other child is. You know, the one in prison.
“Experts” at NFL prognosticating include the boys in Vegas and a host of magazine and television personalities. They all think they know their stuff. In Vegas, they post an over/under for how many games each NFL team will win each year. Last year they came within 2 games of being correct on only 12 of the 32 teams. They were off by as many as 5½ games (both Houston and Philadelphia, both of whom they had overrated).
But Vegas is all about making money and picking a number that will make folks bet on each side of the line, so maybe they’re not a good barometer. How about the knowledgeable people at Sports Illustrated? They fared a little better. They had 13 teams within 2 games of their predictions, and they correctly picked 4 of the 12 playoff teams. But they were off by 6 or more wins on 6 teams (including Chicago—who they underrated by 8 games). Not exactly James Dobson, are they?
Who would be the NFL’s extended family? You know, the well-intentioned aunt and unclewith no kids of their own or the know-it-all older sister? Well, that would be you, me, and the rest of NFL fandom. We fans think we know exactly how our team will fare, experts be damned.
Last year, I was right on line with the “experts.” 13 teams within 2 games of their predictions. 4 playoff teams. Same as SI. My worst mistakes were Chicago and Houston—I was off by 7 games on each. Maybe if I improve on those numbers this year, I could be considered one of the experts, instead of just some guy with no kids who thinks he wrote the parenting manual.
So here are my quick hits on this season: The Colts’ invincibility will be destroyed in Week 1—against Peyton’s brother Eli. The Giants and Cowboys will go toe-to-toe all season in the NFC. As a matter of fact, by the time of their first meeting—in Week 7 on Monday Night Football—both teams will be 5-0. Neither of last year’s Super Bowl teams will make a return trip—to the playoffs.
Without further ado, here’s how each division will stack up this year (division winners are in bold, wild card teams are in italics):
AFC East
New England 11-5 Miami 8-8 Buffalo 6-10 NY Jets 4-12
I think the Patriots looked at their schedule and what they had on the roster and they decided that even if they do nothing at all this year, they’ll win the division. So they let everyone (Vinatieri, McGinest, Givens) go and played hardball with Deion Branch. They figure they’ll save the cap space until next year and then reload. I mean think about it—who’s the competition in this division? The Dolphins? Daunte Culpepper had a great season two years ago but, until he got hurt last year, I seriously wondered if he had vision problems. Until he comes out wearing the “Wild Thing” glasses from Major League, I’m not sold. The Bills? J.P. Losman is still the QB, right? His last name is Losman, as in, “sorry about the loss, man.” And the Jets’ quarterback’s shoulder is held together with duct tape and paper clips. Pencil the Patriots in for 11 wins and another AFC East title.
Here’s the low-down on the quarterbacks in this division, bottom-to-top. Charlie Frye, unproven, untested. Carson Palmer, returning from a horrific leg injury. Ben Roethlisburger. Between smashing his face into a windshield and his emergency appendectomy, who knows how he’s going to respond. And Steve McNair, given one last chance at glory with the Ravens. Defense is where this division will be won. Although the Browns are coming along, they’re not there yet (but they’ll still finish with a respectable 7 wins). The Bengals rarely play defense. That leaves the Steelers and Ravens. Baltimore’s going to put it together this year, beat Pittsburgh twice, win the division, and keep the Steelers from the playoffs.
AFC South
Indianapolis 11-5 Jacksonville 11-5 Houston 5-11 Tennessee 3-13
In what is essentially a two-team division until further notice, the Colts and Jaguars will go toe-to-toe right up until the final week, with the Colts once again taking the division crown. The Colts will not be as good as last year, but 11 wins is easily within reach. And Jacksonville will somehow win 11 as well.
AFC West
Denver 12-4 Kansas City 11-5 San Diego 9 -7 Oakland 4-12
I don’t know how Denver keeps doing it, but they do. Their massive offensive line could open up holes for a sumo wrestler. This team is built to win games (in the regular season—the postseason is another matter entirely). Herm Edwards should have an immediate impact in Kansas City (at least this year—it’s future years you have to worry about). And San Diego will, once again, play below its capabilities.
NFC East
NY Giants 13-3 Dallas 12-4 Washington 8-8 Philadelphia 5-11
Before I talk about the NFC East, can I ask who the heck makes up the schedules for the NFL? Nine teams have three straight home games this year. Six teams must play three straight road games. There’s no reason any team should ever have three straight anything. We have the technology. We can fix this. One team—the Eagles—play three straight home and three straight road games this season. And the road tilts are in December at division rivals Washington, New York, and Dallas. That’s one of the reasons I have the Eagles winning just 5 games.
Meanwhile, we might be in store for a classic battle between the Giants and Cowboys. Since the four-division format was created in 2001, teams in the same division have won 12 or more games twice (including last year when the Colts and Jaguars did it). It’s going to happen again, with the division title going down to the last week, and the teams meeting for a 3rd time in the NFC Championship Game.
NFC North
Minnesota 9-7 Chicago 9-7 Green Bay 6-10 Detroit 4-12
Sorry, Brett, but it’s going to be another bad year. And I realize the Bears have a ridiculously easy schedule, but they also have an offense that is so ’05. As in,1905. Back when the forward pass was illegal. Their defense also isn’t as good as people think. Somehow the Vikings will tie the Bears for the division lead and win one of the lengthiest tiebreaker battles in history, narrowly earning a playoff berth on the rare “best net points in common games played against East Coast teams whose names include an ‘i’” tiebreaker.
NFC South
Tampa Bay 10-6 Atlanta 9-7 Carolina 7-9 New Orleans 5-11
Everyone’s high on Carolina again this year. But over the last four years they’ve won 7, 11, 7, and 11 games, respectively. Guess what comes next in this number sequence, class? Yep, 7. And Atlanta will once again rush for 100,000 yards while throwing for just 20. Or something like that. Nine wins sounds about right. That leaves Tampa Bay to win the division.
NFC West
Arizona 10-6 Seattle 9-7 St. Louis 6-10 San Francisco 5-11
One of the surprise teams of the year will be the Arizona Cardinals. I was high on them last year and, remarkably, they were the only team in the league to finish in the top 10 in both offense and defense. Yet they won just 5 games. That will all change this year. With a new stadium, a new running back (Edgerrin James), and another year with all of that talent, the Cardinals will supplant the Seahawks as NFC West champs. And the Seahawks will miss the playoffs. They have to. The last five Super Bowl losers have. Mama always told me, “Never bet against a streak.”
The Playoffs
Week 1: New England beats Kansas City; Baltimore beats Jacksonville; Atlanta beats Arizona; Dallas beats Minnesota
Week 2: Baltimore beats Denver; Indianapolis beats New England; NY Giants beat Atlanta; Dallas beats Tampa Bay
Which brings us to Championship Week. In the NFC, the Cowboys and Giants play for a third time. But what everyone will be talking about is the potential for a Manning v. Manning Super Bowl. It will be all you hear about. Ad nauseum. For 7 straight days. And then…
Both teams will lose. The Ravens pummel Manning, et al into submission, 27-10. And the Cowboys decide not to trust Mike Vanderjagt with a potential game-tying field goal, and instead go for it on 4th-and-1 with a Drew Bledsoe quarterback sneak. It works, and the Cowboys win 21-17.
Super Bowl XLI: Bledsoe (finally!), Owens, Glenn, and the Cowboy defense roll to a 41-23 win over Baltimore.
Week 1 Picks:
PITTSBURGH (E) over Miami Atlanta (+5) over CAROLINA TAMPA BAY (-3) over Baltimore NEW ENGLAND (-10) over Buffalo KANSAS CITY (-1.5) over Cincinnati Denver (-3.5) over ST. LOUIS CLEVELAND (-3.5) over New Orleans TENNESSEE (-2.5) over NY Jets HOUSTON (+6) over Philadelphia Seattle (-7) over DETROIT Chicago (-4.5) over GREEN BAY Dallas (+1.5) over JACKSONVILLE ARIZONA (-7.5) over San Francisco NY GIANTS (+3.5) over Indianapolis Minnesota (+4) over WASHINGTON San Diego (-3) over OAKLAND
New England won 2-0
Saturday night. Washington
won 3-1. On Sunday, Carolina won a blowout 5-0,
while Pittsburgh
won a close one 2-0.
No, this isn’t Major League Soccer. And those weren’t the
actual scores of this weekend’s NFL playoff games. But if you listened to the
folks on TV, you’d think they were. These numbers represent what most pundits
believe to be the most important aspect of playoff football: turnovers.
Win the turnover battle and you win the game. That’s what
you hear on the pregame shows, during the games, and in the post-game wrap-ups.
Former players spout the phrase right along with their non-playing
counterparts.
And while the sheer numbers bear this out (teams winning the
turnover battle win more than 75% of the time), it’s almost akin to saying that
whoever scores the most points wins. Of course it’s true, but how teams scored
and why is what we want to hear.
Let’s take a closer look at what actually happened in this
weekend’s games. The Patriots led 7-0 before the Jaguars fumbled on the 37-yard
line. 3 plays later the Patriots punted (no harm on that turnover). They
were up 21-3 in the 4th quarter when Asante Samuel returned a Byron Leftwich
pass back for a touchdown. That interception was an exclamation point on this
game, not the reason for the win. The Patriots were going to win no matter how
many turnovers they forced.
The Carolina Panthers trounced the Giants 23-0 on Sunday.
Long before Eli Manning threw 3 interceptions and fumbled once, the Panthers
were dominating the Giants in every phase of the game. Sure, a turnover on a
punt just before halftime led to 3 Carolina
points. But there was no way the Giants were winning this game—turnovers or no
turnovers.
It was 28-17 Pittsburgh
(and the Steelers were stopping the Bengals every time they had the ball) early
in the 4th quarter before Jon Kitna’s interception represented the first
turnover of the game.
The only game of the weekend in which turnovers played a
major role was in the Washington-TampaBay game. LaVar Arrington
returned an interception to the 6-yard line. One play later Clinton Portis was
in the end zone. Just over four minutes later, the Redskins forced a fumble,
and Sean Taylor returned it 51 yards for a touchdown. The ‘Skins scored 14
points off two turnovers. Since they would total a paltry 120 yards of offense
for the entire game (the worst ever for a winning playoff team), without these
two turnovers, TampaBay would be moving on in the playoffs, not Washington.
That’s only one out of four games in which turnovers were
actually the key plays of the game. Yet everyone on TV fell back on the old
reliable cliché—you win the turnover battle, you win the game. In an effort to
simplify things, often the talking heads oversimplify
things. Which is fine—but how about we simplify things with some actual
analysis for a change?
The key to the Patriots 28-3 win over the Jaguars was
defense. New England dominated on defense from start to finish, stopping the Jacksonville running game
and making life miserable for quarterbacks Byron Leftwich and David Garrard
(sacking them 6 times). Jacksonville’s
defense played great in the first half, but Tom Brady and the Patriots adjusted
in the second half. Key play of the game: Tom Brady connects with tight end Ben
Watson, who breaks three tackles and outmuscles the Jaguar defense all the way
to the end zone.
The Panthers 23-0 win? The key was defensive execution. The
Panthers were determined to take Giants’ running back Tiki Barber out of the
game and make quarterback Eli Manning beat them. The plan worked to perfection.
And although I’m the first to harp on Manning’s faults, his teammates and
coaches need to look in the mirror. Plexico Burress (0 catches) never showed up
and could be seen in replays barely running his routes or adjusting when
Manning was in trouble. The Giants’ defense clearly attended night classes at
the Kansas CityChiefsSchool
for Those Who Do Not Tackle over the weekend. And as Tiki Barber correctly
stated in the postgame press conference (after head coach Tom Coughlin had
already thrown him under the bus): “we were outcoached today.” Key play of the
game: DeShaun Foster’s 31-yard run in the 3rd quarter. He broke about 76
tackles on the play before the ball boy tackled him, I think. Any thought of a
Giant comeback was laid to rest after this run.
In the Steelers’ 31-17 win, a combination of smothering
defense, Cincinnati quarterback Carson Palmer’s
injury, and a formidable rushing attack (34 carries for 144 yards) led Pittsburgh to the road
win. Key play of the game: Leading 21-17, the Steelers ran a nifty play in
which wide receiver Antwaan Randle El (a former quarterback) took the direct
snap in front of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, ran to his right, turned and
threw the ball backward to the quarterback. Roethlisberger hit a wide open
Cedrick Wilson for a 43-yard touchdown. That one play showed that the Steelers’
ingenuity and coaching was far superior to the Bengals’. (And the Giants,
Redskins, and Buccaneers for that matter.)
Speaking of the Redskins and Bucs—the key to Washington’s 17-10 win was
turnovers that led to points (shocking, I know). Additionally, late game
coaching by both teams was questionable. Joe Gibbs and the Redskins sat on
their lead as if they were starring in a bad sports-themed action movie (think
Jean-Claude Van Damme’s Sudden Death). I can almost see Powers Boothe
snarling, “If the Redskins get another first down, I’ll blow up the stadium!”
And then there’s Jon Gruden, who stars in the other key play of the game:
4th-and-1 at the Washington
19. Mike Alstott had just been stopped on 3rd-and-1. Tampa
goes for it (the right call), but the play-action pass they called features the
worst acting by 11 people since PaulyShore’s Jury Duty.
With only one option available on the pass play, quarterback Chris Simms threw
incomplete. The Bucs didn’t score and the Redskins held onto their lead.
There…that wasn’t so hard, was it?
Looking ahead to this weekend’s games, I like the looks of every single
underdog, with two or even three of them winning outright. (More on that later
in the week.) In the meantime, keep those clichés coming—defense wins
championships, playoff experience wins games, and the prevent defense only
prevents you from winning. Oh, and of course, you win the turnover battle, you
win the game.
If ever a holiday needed a permanent residence, it would be
New Year’s Day. Just as Thanksgiving is the fourth Thursday in November and
Labor Day the first Monday in September, New Year’s Day should always
