3rd-6, PIT26 2:56 B. Roethlisberger rushed to the left for 1 yard gain
One play shouldn’t define a game or a season, but more often than not one play from a playoff game stands out. Last week it was Ben Roethlisberger’s failed 3rd-and-6 bootleg. The Steelers punted, the Jaguars drove to the 7-yard line, kicked a field goal, and won the game.
That one play stands out more than any other play in the game. More than David Garrard’s 4th down run that kept the Jaguars’ drive alive. More than the Steelers’ failed two-point conversion attempt from the 12-yard line.
Why the 3rd down run by Roethlisberger? Because it showed such a clear misunderstanding of what was needed.
Let’s start with the first 2-point try. The Steelers had just scored to cut the lead to 28-23 with 14 minutes left in the game. Sure, 14 minutes is a lot of time, but two drives earlier the Jaguars had held the ball for almost five minutes and scored a touchdown. Time was indeed running out on the Steelers, and two points was going to get them within a field goal (instead of a touchdown) and increase their chances of winning the game. Even after a (phantom) holding penalty pushed the Steelers back to the 12-yard line, I have no issues with the Steelers going for two there. It showed that they were willing to do whatever they needed to do to win the game.
On the other hand, a Roethlisberger designed rollout/run on 3rd-and-6? That has “I’m so afraid of a turnover that I don’t even want my quarterback to attempt to give the ball to anyone else on the team for fear that something bad will happen” written all over it. That’s the mentality that losing teams have, not a team with a chance to win a playoff game.
That 3rd down play was the culmination o####ame in which the only times the Steelers scored were when they played aggressively. The Steelers opened the game with six straight pass plays (and ended up scoring a touchdown), and Roethlisberger threw on seven consecutive downs at one point in the game. Granted he had three interceptions in the 1st half. But when the chips were down and they needed yards, Big Ben gave them yards.
To take the lead and then go ultra-conservative was inviting trouble. And trouble came a-knocking in the form of David Garrad’s 4th down scramble. That was a designed run out of the shotgun by a guy that can run, and was coach Jack Del Rio’s way of saying, “we are not losing this game.”
A lesson Steelers’ head coach Mike Tomlin needs to learn. NFL Playoffs Round 2 Selections
It was a 2-2 week against the spread last week (and an abysmal 1-3 straight up). Two underdogs covered, as I predicted. Just not the ones I picked. (The story of my season this year.)
As we head into Round 2, you’ll hear a lot of people talking about how the top four teams rarely all make it to the Championship round. But it has happened twice in the last four years, and it seems likely to happen again this year.
Forget the fact that the four teams with byes are clearly the four best teams in the NFL and they’ve all had a week off to prepare. Just look at the eight teams that played last week for a moment. The Steelers blew their game at home but the team that beat them tried to give the game away in the 4th quarter, allowing 19 points in 8 minutes and 32 seconds. The Titans’ game plan was apparently to try and lull the Chargers to sleep, which almost worked, except for the Chargers’ game plan of doing their best Marty Schottenheimer impression until the 2nd half. (Which reminds me: Everyone who says that this season was more successful under Norv Turner than last season under Schottenheimer just because the Chargers won a playoff game is delusional. The Chargers went 14-2 last year and had a bye in the first round. Basically, this season as of right now is still not better than last year because San Diego must go on the road for their next playoff game. If the Chargers pull off the upset this week in Indianapolis, then we can talk.)
The Redskins played their sixth straight game on pure emotion while the Seahawks played some of the worst football known to man for 52 minutes and then played well for a grand total of 5 minutes, enough time to score 22 fourth quarter points, with 14 coming on interception returns for touchdowns. And Tampa Bay spent three weeks resting players and preparing for the Giants and then came out with the worst game plan in history, while the Giants’ game plan was to keep Eli Manning on a tight leash (20-27, 185 yards) and hope the defense (1 sack, 3 turnovers) could win the game.
My point? Could any one of those eight teams have beaten any of the four teams on a bye? I say no. I think all four home teams win this weekend, with only the Giants coming close and covering the spread.
Green Bay (-7½) over Seattle A rematch of the fantastic 2004 playoff game in which Matt Hasselbeck declared—after the Seahawks won the coin toss in over time—“we’ll take the ball and we’re going to score!” And then he threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown. I’ll tell you what I’m tired of hearing about: Playoff experience (the Packers have little, the Seahawks have a lot). In Joe Montana’s 13 non-Super Bowl championship seasons, did the 49ers lose because the other team had more playoff experience, or was the other team just better sometimes? Something to think about, because the Packers are the better team. By far. Pick: Packers 30, Seahawks 13
New England (-13) over Jacksonville Can everyone please just stop with propping up the Jaguars as world beaters? They played a very solid first half against the Steelers last week and then came through when they needed to in the 4th quarter. But their quarterback completed just 9 passes for the entire game. I just don’t see it. The Patriots are rested and ready for the first time in a month. They haven’t had an opportunity to run up the score on an opponent in eight weeks. I don’t think this one will even be close. Pick: Patriots 42, Jaguars 16
Indianapolis (-9) over San Diego I thought that the spread on this one was too high until I remembered how bad the Chargers looked last week. The same Titans team that the Colts almost beat with their backups had the Chargers dead to rights with about 20 minutes left in the game. The Titans led 6-3 and the Chargers had a 3rd-and-4. Rivers completed a pass to Tomlinson for a 1st down and San Diego eventually pulled away. This same Chargers team—without tight end Antonio Gates—is supposed to travel across the country and beat a rested Colts team in the dome? Pick: Colts 34, Chargers 17
NY Giants (+7½) over Dallas With the Jessica Simpson distraction looming over the Cowboys’ heads, there’s no way their focus is there for this game. (Just kidding. That might have been the most ridiculous “controversy” in the history of controversies.) Terrell Owens is hurt, the Cowboys have not played well the last few weeks of the season, and this Giants team is apparently better than I’ve given them credit for, especially defensively. The Giants bring enough pressure to disrupt the Cowboys’ offense, and save for one bad 4th quarter pass against the Patriots, Eli Manning has played very well the last two weeks. Plus this will be the third time the Cowboys and Giants play each other this year, and five of the last six playoff games between division foes has been decided by two touchdowns or less. I have a funny feeling that the Giants will keep this one close, but I just can’t see the Cowboys losing this one. Pick: Cowboys 27, Giants 24
If the four favorites win, we’ll have the best final four since the ’98 season when the 15-1 Vikings took on the 14-2 Falcons and the 14-2 Broncos played the 12-4 Jets. The Vikings had set all of the offensive records but fell to the surprising Falcons in overtime, while the Parcells-coached Jets led 10-0 late in the 3rd quarter before the Broncos stormed back for a 23-10 win.
And if it’s Patriots-Colts and Cowboys-Packers, settle in for one of the best Championship Sundays in a long time.
This year’s NFL regular season brought us the renaissance of a legend, a team rising above the death of one of their own players, the craziest field goal we’ve ever seen, one of the best in-game snowstorms we’ve ever seen, a rookie sensation taking the league by storm, a mere 9 losses registered by the league’s top 4 teams (with three of those losses coming in games against each other), and heavily-hyped games that lived up the hype.
Oh, and the first team in NFL history to go 16-0 (more on whether or not the Patriots’ season was the greatest of all time in a moment).
Maybe I’m in the “whatever is new is always great” club today, but the NFL season that concluded last week sure seemed like one of the best to come along in ages. Brett Favre’s transformation from old man winter (71.8 passer rating with 38 TDs, 47 INTs, and 12 wins the previous two seasons) to the lion in winter (95.7 passer rating with 28 TDs, 15 INTs, and 13 wins this season) was an incredible sight to behold.
Just as incredible was watching the Washington Redskins—who lost Sean Taylor, one of their best defensive players to a shooting death—go 4-0 after regrouping and make the playoffs. And Taylor was elected to the Pro Bowl after his death.
In Week 11, Cleveland kicker Phil Dawson kicked a game-tying 51-yard field goal that hit the left upright, went through the uprights, hit the support post behind the crossbar, then bounded back onto the field. To the naked eye, it looked no good. But after a seemingly endless delay the officials—without the aid of replay, which isn’t used on field goals—decided correctly that the field goal was indeed good. The Browns went on to win in overtime. Never seen anything like that, have we?
Four weeks later the Browns and Bills locked up in an 8-0 game in a veritable blizzard. Of course the hero of the game was kicker Phil Dawson, who connected from 35 and 49 yards on a day in which staying on your feet was difficult, never mind using them to score points.
Speaking of feet, Vikings rookie Adrian Peterson used his to rush for 1,341 yards in 14 games, ending the season with a yards-per-rush average of 5.6. And in a Week 9 game against San Diego, he set the NFL single-game rushing record with 296 yards.
This was the year that the cream rose to the top. The Patriots, Cowboys, Packers, and Colts combined for a record of 55-9 (52-6 if you take out the games against each other). This season is tied with 1998 for best record among the top 4 teams in the 16-game season era (the Vikings, Falcons, Broncos, and Jets combined for 9 losses that season).
And you want big games? Meaningful games between top teams that live up to the hype? How about the Patriots throttling the Chargers in Week 2 after “spygate” erupted? Or the Patriots beating the Cowboys in one of the few 5-0 vs. 5-0 games in league history? Or Green Bay winning in Denver on Monday night on a Favre overtime touchdown pass? Want more? The 8-0 Patriots coming back from 10 down in the 4th quarter to beat the 7-0 Colts springs to mind. Or the Chargers beating those same Colts the next week on Sunday night. And the Cowboys knocking off the Packers on a Thursday night NFL Network special. Finally, the Patriots putting the finishing touches on an undefeated season by coming back from 12 down to beat the Giants in a “meaningless” game watched by 34.5 million people on three networks.
NBC’s flex schedule worked perfectly this season, giving us week after week of important games. The NFL Network tried in vain to find its place on the American television set but needed an assist in the final week. Even the Dolphins’ run at infamy made this season special. Call me crazy, but it just might have been the best season ever.
Which brings us back to the Patriots. Their remarkable run to 16-0 just might have been the greatest NFL season of all time. The detractors will point out that the Patriots faced the Dolphins and Jets twice (those two teams went a combined 5-27). But division rivals and 4-12 squads are the kinds of teams that usually derail these kinds of runs at history (the 1990 49ers lost their first game to the 5-11 Rams). I’ll make no apologies for the teams the Patriots faced this season.
As a matter of fact, they played and beat four division winners (two on the road), six playoff teams, and eight teams that finished 8-8 or better. If not for the Patriots, the Browns, Bills, and Eagles might have made the playoffs this year. The Redskins were able to rebound from their loss at the hands of the Patriots. It will be interesting to see how the Giants fare following last week’s showdown.
What else made this Patriots season so special? They outscored their opponents by 315 points. 10 other teams scored fewer than 315 points. The seasons Tom Brady and Randy Moss had. (Can we call the trade of a 4th round pick for Randy Moss the greatest NFL trade of all time?)
Or how about how in their four closest games (against the Colts, Eagles, Ravens, and Giants), they outscored their opponents 46-21 in the 4th quarter? Or the fact that their largest deficit of the season—12 points—came with 24 minutes and 12 seconds remaining in game 16?
Their 44 punts were the fewest punts by a team in a 16-game season. The previous record of fewest punts by a Patriots team was 49. That was set in the strike-shortened 1982 season when the team played 9 games.
Wes Welker was a joy to watch. The relentless passing attack was often poetry in motion. Their video game-esque demolitions of the Dolphins, Redskins, and Bills, sandwiched around the win in Indianapolis, were some of the most amazing performances the league has ever seen.
Prior to the Colts game, I wrote: “Tom Brady has thrown for 20 touchdowns and the Patriots have outscored their opponents 179-45. In the first half.” For the season, those numbers were: 32 touchdowns for Brady, and a 333-137 advantage over their opponents in the first half. Only Tony Romo (36) threw more touchdowns on the season than Brady did in the first half. The 333 first half points the Patriots scored were one fewer than the Redskins and Buccaneers scored all season. And the Titans only scored 301. Those are three playoff teams.
The numbers are staggering, the competition was formidable, and the season was unforgettable. It was a season for the ages, and quite possibly the greatest season of all time.NFL Playoff Round 1 Selections
Washington (+3½) over Seattle Everyone likes the Redskins for the emotion factor, and other than that the only reason to like them in this game is that in the last three years 2 underdogs covered in Round 1, so this one will be one of mine. I know Seattle is tough at home and Washington quarterback is Todd Collins is untested, but I’ll go with Washington anyway. One more week of the feel good story for Joe Gibbs and his troops. Pick: Redskins 21, Seahawks 20
Pittsburgh (+2½) over Jacksonville I’ve gone back and forth on this one all week. There’s no way the Steelers could lose at home to the Jaguars twice, go with Pittsburgh. Jacksonville’s playing much better football than Pittsburgh, go with Jacksonville. Mike Tomlin’s playoff inexperience. Jacksonville’s recent playoff losses. Which way to go? I’m going with Pittsburgh to win a close one at home. Pick: Steelers 26, Jaguars 23
Tampa Bay (-2½) over New York Giants That was a valiant effort by the Giants last week and an impressive performance against the undefeated Patriots. But I don’t think they have a chance in this one. Add it all up: the starters played a playoff-type game last week while Tampa’s been resting for two weeks; when the Patriots pressured Eli Manning in the 2nd half, he went 9-14 for 70 yards with one interception, one center-QB fumble, and one sack—expect a lot of pressure this week from the Bucs; it’s Jon Gruden and Jeff Garcia against Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning. Sounds like a Tampa win to me. Pick: Buccaneers 29, Giants 15
San Diego (-10) over Tennessee Four of the last five teams favored by 7 or more in the 1st round of the playoffs won and covered. And this Chargers team is far superior in talent to the Titans. As a matter of fact, I’m not even sure how the Titans are in the playoffs. They scored just four more points than they allowed, had four more turnovers than forced turnovers, and got just 9 touchdown passes against 17 interceptions out of Vince Young. Their only win against a playoff team (and the Colts game last week doesn’t count) was way back in Week 1 when they beat Jacksonville. Not even Chargers coach Norv Turner can stop the Chargers from blowing out the Titans in this one. Pick: Chargers 38, Titans 13
If these results happen, it sets us up for a pretty good Round 2 with Pats-Steelers, Colts-Chargers, Cowboys-Redskins, and Packers-Bucs. Well, three intriguing games anyway.
I didn’t want Week 17 of the NFL season to arrive without providing one last set of picks. It’s been an up and down season for the Sports in a Can handicapping department, but a 10-6 finish would put me over .500 for the season. And that’s what we’re aiming for.
Week 17 is always an odd week. Some teams are resting players, some teams aren’t. Some teams are playing for playoff spots, some teams are playing for pride. The spreads often don’t make sense heading into the games. In the last two seasons, we’ve had 8 underdogs cover in Week 17 both times (with 5 underdogs winning outright last year and 6 the year before). The trick, as always, is figuring out which underdogs to back.
New England (-14) over NY GIANTS
Buffalo (+7½) over PHILADELPHIA
Carolina (-2½) over TAMPA BAY
MIAMI (+2½) over Cincinnati
Detroit (+3½) over GREEN BAY
HOUSTON (-6) over Jacksonville
New Orleans (-2) over CHICAGO
CLEVELAND (-10½) over San Francisco
Seattle (+1) over ATLANTA
Dallas (+9) over WASHINGTON
NY JETS (-6) over Kansas City
DENVER (+3) over Minnesota
BALTIMORE (+3½) over Pittsburgh
San Diego (-8) over OAKLAND
St. Louis (+6) over ARIZONA
Tennessee (-6½) over INDIANAPOLIS
Mitch Albom had his Tuesdays with Morrie. The Missus and I have our Sundays with Andrew Siciliano.
Let’s start at the beginning, shall we? Back in 2001 we switched from cable to DirecTV. Why? The cost savings was the number one reason. But a close second was a little something called the NFL Sunday Ticket. This package allowed me to watch every single NFL game that’s on every single weekend. No longer did I have to scan the TV listings each week only to be disappointed that I would have to suffer through a game between two crappy teams while the game of the day was being shown in someone else’s house. No, now I had the power.
For six NFL seasons I reveled each Sunday with the NFL package. Feet up, clicker in hand, I was able to flip from game to game, catching all of the NFL action known to man. Then we got HD. And I didn’t think life could get any better.
Until we met Andrew.
I was a little leery at first of this creation that DirecTV calls the Red Zone Channel. The stated purposed was to show any game—live—once one team entered the red zone (inside their opponents’ 20-yard line). I thought, “There’s no way this will be better than flipping around.” And, “How on earth could they pull this off?”
Shocking but true, they do pull it off. And I haven’t watched a full non-Patriots Sunday afternoon game since.
Who is Andrew, you ask? That would be Andrew Siciliano, the host of the Red Zone Channel. Andrew sits at a desk staring at a bank of 15 television screens and previews the upcoming games of the day. As soon as the first game kicks off, he “grabs the remote” and takes us live to that game. From that point forward—whenever another game seems more appealing—he “bounces out” into that game. If one game is about to head to a commercial, he takes us to another game. Immediately. As a matter of fact, this past Sunday, I saw my first advertisement of any kind a full hour-and-a-half into the day’s action. At that point, with most games heading into halftime, we go live to Andrew’s studio and a voiceover reads, “The Red Zone Channel. Brought to you by Sony.” Then Andrew shows highlights from the first half. That’s it. That brief ad for Sony (and the Best Buy logo that is displayed when a final box score from a game is flashed on the screen) is all the advertising I see all day. (There’s no way that can continue—DirecTV has to think of a way to make more money from the advertisers, but I’ll enjoy it while it lasts.)
And Andrew somehow pulls off this near-impossible job of watching as many as 10 games at once almost seamlessly. A team is about to punt? Andrew breaks in and says, “We don’t show you punts here at the Red Zone Channel. Unless Devin Hester is involved.” The announcers for a particular game throw it back to New York for a highlight from another game? Andrew breaks in and says, “You just saw that. Let’s grab the remote and bounce out to another game.” He’s quick, he’s funny, and he’s got what seems like a dream job, as hard as it probably is to do.
The only complaint I have for Andrew? Sometimes he quits early. Some Sundays around 5:30, when the second round of Sunday games are going on, he lets us know that he’s shutting down for the day. He tells us what channel to find all the games on, but he’s out of there. I understood it the Sunday that the Patriots were playing the Colts—I mean who wanted to watch Houston-Oakland or Cleveland-Seattle when the Game of the Millennium was being played? But on a typical Sunday afternoon, I want Andrew running the switchboard and taking me around the league. When I’m spending 10 straight hours on the couch, expending energy by using the remote is pretty taxing.
Other than that, I have no complaints. The Missus and I love our Sundays with Andrew. He does all the heavy lifting, and we don’t have to search around for the game of the day. And with the Patriots playing a night game seemingly every week, we’ve had some time to really bond with Andrew and appreciate the man’s dedication to the NFL.
Dwelling on our latest find got me thinking about the revolutionary technological advancements that have come our way in the last 10 years. And I wondered where I would place Andrew’s channel. Let’s check out one man’s list:
The Sports in a Can Top 10 Technological Advancements of the Last 10 Years
1. The Internet 2. Email 3. Cellphones 4. TiVo 5. Wireless Internet access 6. High Definition television 7. NFL Sunday Ticket 8. iTunes 9. Tollbooth transponders 10. The Red Zone Channel
This list assumes the technological advancement had an impact on me, personally, so hybrid cars don’t make the list. Not yet, anyway. Maybe my next car. And if you want to quibble with the timing of some of them, so be it. I don’t remember when Al Gore invented the Internet, I just don’t recall it impacting my life pre-1997. Same goes for email. And cellphones have come a looong way since you had to carry around a phone booth to make a call. Those are easily my top three because each can end the phrase: “Do you remember what we did before _____?” TiVo has worked its way up to #4 and is nearing life-changing potential.
Andrew’s channel lands in 10th position and could threaten tollbooth transponders in the near future. That’s how life-altering it is.
Last week we watched a whiparound that included Jacksonville pulling away from Buffalo, Oakland upsetting Kansas City, Seattle holding on against St. Louis, and Tampa Bay holding on against Washington. All live. On a Sunday when the top five teams in the NFL weren’t playing, the excitement level was still high in the Sports in a Can living room.
We’ve got five more Sundays with Andrew before the Red Zone Channel goes dark for the winter. We’ll be enjoying every last second.Week 13 NFL Picks
DALLAS (-7) over Green Bay ST. LOUIS (-3) over Atlanta Buffalo (+5½) over WASHINGTON MINNESOTA (-3½) over Detroit TENNESSEE (-3½) over Houston INDIANAPOLIS (-6½) over Jacksonville MIAMI (-1) over NY Jets San Diego (-5½) over KANSAS CITY Seattle (+3) over PHILADELPHIA San Francisco (+3) over CAROLINA Cleveland (+1) over ARIZONA Denver (-3½) over OAKLAND CHICAGO (+1½) over NY Giants Tampa Bay (+3) over NEW ORLEANS PITTSBURGH (-7) over Cincinnati New England (-20½) over BALTIMORE
I was going to follow up what I wrote last week with a little diddy about how great Sunday night’s Patriots win was and how it turned everything around and how great life was and blah blah blah. But the last thing anyone wants is a Patriots fan gloating about his team.
Instead, let’s focus in on the upcoming slate of games in the NFL. I went a disappointing 7-8-1 last week after my strong opening week. Although my tidbit of the week—that the underdogs who won in Week 1 would be good bets in Week 2—came true in the form of a 3-0-1 week for those teams. Of course I told you that tidbit and then only took 3 of them myself. I won’t make that mistake this week.
I’ve got a few more tidbits to share this week. They are spread throughout my picks for the weekend.
Arizona at Baltimore Did you ever stop to think about team names and what it would mean if they actually did battle? I mean a Cardinal is a cute little red bird that is not indigenous to Arizona. A Raven is one of the largest birds in North America, is considered one of the smartest of all birds, and can survive anywhere from the Arctic to the desert. Plus the Raven was immortalized in a poem by the macabre Edgar Allan Poe (which makes it one tough bird). All I can say about this game is: That’s So Raven. Pick: Baltimore (-7½)
San Francisco at Pittsburgh Over the last two years, teams that started the season 2-0 and played a team with fewer than 2 wins in Week 3 are just 3-7 against the spread. More important than that tidbit is this one—teams that won their first two games by 17 or more are 0-2-1 against the spread the next week. That makes Pittsburgh, New England, and Dallas vulnerable this week. Pick: San Francisco (+9)
Detroit at Philadelphia I don’t want to place any more pressure on Donovan McNabb, but his team is 0-2 and he is the 23rd-highest rated quarterback in the league. I’m not criticizing you, Donovan. I’m just stating facts. No pressure, OK? Pick: Detroit (+6)
Indianapolis at Houston Everyone had this one down as one of the premier games of the season, right? Undefeated Indianapolis vs. undefeated Houston. Raise your hand if you had this one pegged as a clash of the titans. Pick: Indianapolis (-6)
Miami at NY Jets The Jets have won 5 of the last 6 games with the Dolphins. I smell a trend. Or maybe I smell a rat. I don’t know. I smell something. Pick: NY Jets (-3)
Minnesota at Kansas City The Vikings have allowed 76 rushing yards per game so far this season, up 15 yards per game from last year’s phenomenal total (but still 5th best in the league). The Chiefs have rushed for 71 yards per game this year, down 63 yards per game from the 2006 season. This could be the first game in NFL history in which a team rushes for negative yardage for the entire game. Pick: Minnesota (+2½)
St. Louis at Tampa Bay Teams that began 0-2 the last two years went 7-3 vs. the spread against teams with at least one win in Week 3. Digging a little deeper, teams that lost one of their games by less than 10 and the other by 10 or more went 5-1 against the number. That makes Atlanta, St. Louis, Oakland, and Buffalo sure-fire covers this weekend. Pick: St. Louis (+3½)
Buffalo at New England Do you think Randy Moss will be a difference-maker for the Patriots? I’m still on the fence. Pick: Buffalo (+16½)
San Diego at Green Bay I’ve been a huge Prison Break fan since day 1, even though I had to suspend my disbelief at every turn. First, an architect tattoos his entire body with plans to break his brother out of prison. Then the group of escapees (those that survived) converge both in Utah (to dig up D.B. Cooper’s money) and in Panama. Finally, the escapee brothers are miraculously exhonerated after the President of the United States announces that she is leaving office—but one of the brothers ends up in the worst prison on the planet, from which he needs to escape. Yeah, they might have lost me this year. Pick: San Diego (-5½)
Cincinnati at Seattle Seattle is 33-12 at home since 2002. And the way Cincinnati’s defense played last week, I don’t see the Bengals providing much of a challenge this weekend. Pick: Seattle (-3)
Cleveland at Oakland Last week the Browns and Bengals played one of their semi-annual “Ugly Games.” There’s nothing but orange and black all over the field and absolutely no defense. It’s Halloween gone mad. CBS added to the ugliness by showing the game in No Definition. Keep up the good work, CBS. You might as well show this game in No Def as well. Pick: Oakland (-3)
Jacksonville at Denver The Denver Broncos needed the field goal unit to sprint onto the field and kick a game winner in 8 seconds in Week 1. Last week, their coach called time out a nano-second before the Raiders snapped the ball for a game-winning field goal. Oakland then missed the second try and the Broncos drove for the winning score. When you win two games you have no right winning, there’s only two ways the rest of the season can go: 14-2 and a trip to the Super Bowl or 8-8 with a string of “how did they blow that game” losses. I’m going with the latter. Pick: Jacksonville (+3)
Carolina at Atlanta Since I have nothing to say about this game, let’s talk baseball for a moment. The American League races are all but over (and even if the Yankees catch the Red Sox, both are making the playoffs), but the National League drama might be just beginning. All three divisions are separated by 1½ games or less, and the Wild Card is up for grabs as well. I’m rooting for ties galore, with the Mets and Phillies, Padres and Diamondbacks, and Cubs and Brewers all playing one game playoffs on October 1, with the losers of the first two games meeting the next day to settle the Wild Card. But maybe that’s just me. Pick: Atlanta (+4)
NY Giants at Washington ESPN’s Chris Mortensen reports that Giants quarterback Eli Manning will retire due to the severity of his dislocated shoulder. Wait, this just in, Eli Manning will be starting this weekend for the Giants. Pick: Washington (-3½)
Dallas at Chicago The Bears have allowed just 12 points per game so far this season, 4th-lowest in the NFL. The Cowboys have scored a league-best 41 points per game. The Cardinals have scored 40 points and allowed 40 points. I don’t know what any of this means, but it sure sounded good at first. Pick: Chicago (-3)
Tennessee at New Orleans
Only three teams since 1990 have started the season 0-2 and advanced to the Super Bowl (the ’93 Cowboys, ’96 Patriots, and ’01 Patriots). Team number four—the New Orleans Saints—begins the long climb this week (or else I can kiss my Super Bowl prediction goodbye in Week 3). Pick: New Orleans (-4)
The 2007 NFL season kicks off tomorrow night with the defending world champion Indianapolis Colts hosting the New Orleans Saints. Seven months after Peyton Manning and the Colts showed that they could indeed win the big one, they get to play the role of defending champion.
No more Michael Vick discussions. No more debates on the length of the preseason. No more reminiscing about (or gnashing teeth over) last year’s results.
I covered most of the questions that we’re all seeking answers to last week in Part 1 of the Sports in a Can NFL Preview. So, without further ado, let’s get to this year’s predictions. Division winners are in bold, wild card teams are in italics:
AFC East New England 13-3 Buffalo 7-9 NY Jets 7-9 Miami 4-12
In what amounted to a rebuilding year, the Patriots won 12 games and were one play away from the Super Bowl last season. Seven months later they’ve added the best defensive free agent available (Adalius Thomas) and three wide receivers (Wes Welker, Donte’ Stallworth, and Randy Moss) that are so much better than what they had last year they released last season’s yardage leader (Reche Caldwell). Does it matter that Richard Seymour can’t play until at least Week 7 or that Rodney Harrison was using HGH and will miss the first four games? A little, but not enough to derail what will be the best team in the NFL this year. Meanwhile, Buffalo lost almost all of their defensive players to free agency or injury. The Jets will take a step backward—last season’s 10 wins were a little suspect (their final 5 wins were against Houston, Miami, Oakland, Green Bay, and Minnesota, who won a combined 26 games, or 5.2 each). And the Dolphins are now officially a mess.
Questions abound in this division. How different will the Ravens’ defense be without Adalius Thomas? How much of an impact will new head coach Mike Tomlin have on the Steelers? How many Bengals will get arrested? And will the Browns ever be good? Baltimore shouldn’t miss Thomas much, as that defense is packed with players. The Steelers will be good enough under their new coach to get back to the playoffs. The Benglas will win exactly 8 games for the 4th time in 5 years. And the Browns are at least a year away. Maybe more.
AFC South
Indianapolis 12-4 Jacksonville 10-6 Tennessee 7-9 Houston 5-11
The defending Super Bowl Champion Colts lost linebacker Cato June, left tackle Tarik Glenn, defensive tackle Booger McFarland, and cornerback Nick Harper. They will not be as good as they were last year, but with four games against the Titans and Texans, along with Kansas City, Oakland, and Atlanta on the schedule, they don’t need to be as good to nail down 12 wins and their 5th straight division crown. Will Jacksonville ever be able to put it together? They released quarterback Byron Leftwhich over the weekend, meaning David Garrard (and his 3,543 career passing yards) is now the full-time starter. Their defense will be stellar again, but the offense is a huge question mark. The Titans, meanwhile, with Vince “I need to sleep in my own bed” Young will take a step backward. With games at Jacksonville, vs. Indianapolis, and at New Orleans to begin the season, there might be some bruised egos heading into their bye week. And the Texans remain the Texans. Unless Matt Shaub (and his 1,033 career passing yards) turns out to be the next Joe Montana. Which is doubtful.
AFC West
San Diego 11-5 Denver 8-8 Kansas City 5-11 Oakland 3-13
The Chargers had the talent to win it all last year. Unfortunately, they were led into the postseason by Marty Schottenheimer and his career 5-12 postseason record. And for the 4th time in his career, he took a 12+ win team into a home playoff game and lost. Replacing Schottenheimer is Norv Turner. You might know Turner (58-82-1 in his career) from such hits as, “I ruined the Redskins” and, “Yes you can win 9 games in 2 years with a team 2 years removed from the Super Bowl and still get another job.” San Diego has too much talent for even Norv to mess up that badly, so 11 wins and the division crown it is. He’ll be helped by the down year I predict for the AFC West. Denver head coach Mike Shanahan somehow coaxed 9 wins out of the Broncos last year. But with untested Jay Cutler anointed as the quarterback, I can’t see Denver winning more than 8 games. And the Chiefs will suffer the second year blues under head coach Herm Edwards. Meanwhile the Raiders continue to be just plain awful.
NFC East
Philadelphia 10-6 Washington 8-8 Dallas 7-9 NY Giants 6-10
Year after year, there’s one thing you can count on in the NFC East: The Eagles being at the top. The Eagles have won 10 games or more 6 times in the last 7 years, so I’ll give them the nod for 10 this year. The rest of the division has problems. The NFL may have passed Joe Gibbs by, but I’ll give him credit for giving it a go, and with the talent they have, there’s no reason for them to win fewer than 8 games. For the Cowboys, new head coach Wade Phillips is walking into a difficult situation. Only once out of the three times Bill Parcells has left a franchise has the team won more games the next season. Plus he’s got the Terrell Owens factor to deal with, along with quarterback Tony Romo’s psyche after dropping the snap on last year’s extra point in the playoffs. And then there are the Giants. I was high on them last year but the fact remains that Eli is no Peyton, head coach Tom Coughlin’s style has a short shelf life, and they’re going to miss running back Tiki Barber (over 2,000 yards rushing and receiving in each of the last three years) more than they think.
NFC North
Chicago 12-4 Minnesota 9-7 Green Bay 6-10 Detroit 4-12
It’s a testament to how bad the NFC is in comparison to the AFC that the Bears are probably going to win 12 games again. They have a solid defense, an awful quarterback, and a head coach that’s out of his element in the biggest moments. (Lovie Smith is a nice enough guy, but re-read my recap of last year’s “win” over the Seahawks in the playoffs and tell me if you’d want him coaching your team.) But playing in the NFC, having the 31st easiest schedule (according to last season’s records), and fielding a defense that can win games by itself at times will power the Bears to 12 wins. The Vikings seem to be the only other team in this division that has a chance to be respectable. I like what Brad Childress is doing in Minnesota, and he has turned that team from a laughing stock into a potential playoff team. They just need to find some offense to go with their incredible run-stopping defense (they allowed 111 fewer rushing yards per game than the Colts last year). I still don’t know how Green Bay won 8 games last year, but without running back Ahman Green, Brett Favre will have to throw more. With 47 interceptions (to go with 38 touchdowns) in the last two seasons, Favre throwing more is not what the Packers are looking for. And the Lions can run as many 5 receiver sets as they want. Jon Kitna is throwing the ball to them.
NFC South
New Orleans 12-4 Carolina 11-5 Tampa Bay 9-7 Atlanta 2-14
The Saints, last year’s surprise team, will continue to be a team on the rise. Drew Brees has seemingly overnight transformed into one of the premier quarterbacks in the league. Since his abysmal 2003 season, Brees has thrown 77 touchdowns against only 33 interceptions. Last season he led the league with 4,418 passing yards. Between Brees, the emergence of all-world Reggie Bush, and the coaching of Sean Payton, the Saints will emerge as the top team in the NFC this year. Meanwhile, the Panthers will be right there with them, winning 11 games. How do I know for sure? Here are the Panthers’ wins the last 5 years: 7-11-7-11-8. And it should have been 7 last year—I have no idea how the Panthers won in Baltimore in Week 6. So 11 it is. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is putting it together finally. I thought last year would be the year, but with the addition of Jeff “I am now the man” Garcia, 9 wins seems attainable. And Michael Vick has a better chance of starring in a Prison Break cameo than the Falcons do of winning more than 2 games this year.
NFC West
San Francisco 10-6 Seattle 10-6 St. Louis 8-8 Arizona 7-9
An improved 49ers squad will finally make the leap to the promised land of the playoffs this year. Consider this: San Francisco beat Seattle twice last season and then got the Seahawks’ best receiver (Darrell Jackson) from them in a trade. Quarterback Alex Smith is improving, running back Frank Gore is a force, and—with a division title presumably on the line—the 49ers finish the season with three straight home games and then a trip to Cleveland. I don’t trust the Seahawks and I never will, but I’ll give them 10 wins and a wild card berth. St. Louis seems headed for another 8-8 season—they’re not good enough to challenge for the division, but their offense is too good to lose too many games. And then there are the Cardinals. I was ready to anoint them the surprise team—again. But they lost two different players in the preseason with torn muscles, which you just have to think is a bad sign. They will be good—and soon—but this isn’t the year for any more than 7 wins.
The Playoffs
Week 1: Baltimore (3) beats Pittsburgh (6); Jacksonville (5) beats San Diego (4); Philadelphia (3) beats Seattle (6); Carolina (5) beats San Francisco (4)
Week 2: New England (1) beats Jacksonville (5); Indianapolis (2) beats Baltimore (3); New Orleans (1) beats Carolina (5); Philadelphia (3) beats Chicago (1)
NFC Championship Game: New Orleans over Philadelphia, continuing the remarkable turnaround for the Saints franchise.
AFC Championship Game: New England vs. Indianapolis. Right where we left off in January. In the next edition of this great rivalry, the Patriots get the upper hand and advance to the Super Bowl for the 4th time in 7 years.
Super Bowl XLII: After winning their first three Super Bowls by a combined 9 points, the Patriots win this one by 9 points, 34-25 over New Orleans.
* * * * *
Week 1 Picks
Last year, 7 underdogs won outright in Week 1, and 2 others covered the spread. The year before it was 6 and 1. The trick is finding the right underdogs this early in the season.
INDIANAPOLIS (-6½) over New Orleans BUFFALO (+3) over Denver Kansas City (+3) over HOUSTON JACKSONVILLE (-6½) over Tennessee MINNESOTA (-3) over Atlanta New England (-6½) over NY JETS Philadelphia (-3) over GREEN BAY Pittsburgh (-4½) over CLEVELAND Carolina (+1) over ST. LOUIS WASHINGTON (-3) over Miami Detroit (+1½) over OAKLAND SAN DIEGO (-5½) over Chicago SEATTLE (-6) over Tampa Bay NY Giants (+6) over DALLAS Baltimore (+2½) over CINCINNATI SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Arizona
Throwing Out More Thoughts on Sports, Life, and Whatnot
Which headline do you think NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell most wanted to see last week: “Saints players lift spirits of Hurricane Katrina victims with Super Bowl trip” or “Judge allows Bears player arrested on weapons charges to travel to the Super Bowl”?
Let me see if I understand this. This summer, we’re sending the Patriots and Seahawks to China for a preseason game. Then we’re sending the Giants and Dolphins to England to play a regular season game. Forget questioning the wisdom of the longest NFL road trips in history. What I’m really trying to figure out is why Mexico got hosed in this international deal. A couple of years ago we gave them the worst match-up possible: Cardinals-49ers.
There are just 42 days until March Madness. Which means I have exactly six weeks to try and figure out what to do with all of my free time now that football is almost over.
The NHL All-Star Game was last Wednesday night. Did anyone watch it? It was on some channel called Versus and was up against American Idol.
Whoever loses Super Bowl XLI will become the 14th different team to lose in the last 14 years. The last 13 Super Bowls were lost by Seattle, Philadelphia, Carolina, Oakland, St. Louis, N.Y. Giants, Tennessee, Atlanta, Green Bay, New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, and Buffalo. Add Indianapolis or Chicago to the list and you’ve got 14 different losers. We’ve also had 21 different teams reach the Super Bowl in the last 14 years. Parity, thy name is the NFL.
There are only five NFL teams that have yet to appear in a Super Bowl. Houston, Arizona, New Orleans, Cleveland, and Jacksonville. And in the last nine years, six teams have played in their first ever Super Bowl. Next year maybe we’ll see two first-timers square off. How does everyone feel about a Jacksonville-New Orleans Super Bowl next year? Or maybe Houston-Arizona?
ESPN’s Page 2 has a great piece ranking the 80 teams who have played in the Super Bowl from worst to best. It’s the first time I’ve seen the winners and losers ranked together. It’s a brilliant idea. And it easily can stir debate, as they’ve got some of the winners ranked behind some of the losers, including the ’68 Jets—who were the first AFL team to win the Super Bowl—who are ranked 49th. Not only are they ranked 39th among Super Bowl winners, but 10 losers are ranked ahead of them.
If you don’t have NFL Network, keep an eye out for the America’s Game DVDs. These one-hour recaps of the Super Bowl winners with recent interviews of three participants are incredible. Just when you think you’ve seen it all, NFL Films comes up with a new angle and new footage.
I already have my favorite to watch in American Idol: Sundance Head. Great voice, great attitude, great name. He’s my guy so far.
Hockey has the Stanley Cup (the greatest trophy in all of sports), baseball is still “America’s Pastime,” but the Super Bowl is the King of All Championships. We’re reminded of this inescapable fact every February.
David Beckham signed with the LA Galaxy of Major League Soccer. An international soccer superstar is coming to the U.S? This is incredible news. No, wait, I forgot. It’s soccer. I still don’t care.
I’m as excited as anyone to watch Prince at halftime of the Super Bowl, but the NFL missed out on golden opportunity here. The Christmas episode of Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip featured a storyline about out-of-work New Orleans band members who get the opportunity to perform on the show. There wasn’t a dry eye in my house during this scene. How great would it have been to have some New Orleans talent accompany the halftime show? (Psst, there’s still time to make this happen, NFL. You can send me royalties later.
I’d like to thank TBS for their brilliant marketing campaign that effectively shut down the city of Boston yesterday. Brilliant move. And only in Boston, of course. These things are allegedly all over the country and no one noticed, but here in Massachusetts we call in the bomb squad and shut down highways. Unbelievable.
There’s a group in North Carolina collecting signatures to make Super Bowl Monday—the day after the Super Bowl—a national holiday. They even have a website set up for the effort: http://SuperBowlMonday.com. I am completely on board. I’ve signed their petition and am hoping they are successful. A post-Super Bowl holiday is long overdue.
Barry Bonds’ one-year deal with the Giants was rejected by the commissioner’s office. Word on the street is that the language in question concerns Bonds’ availability for public appearances. I can only assume that Bonds wants to be paid for appearing on behalf of the Giants. I think it would be fitting if Bonds was without a team this year not because of steroids or legal troubles, but because of his ego and greed. Fingers crossed.
Tiger Woods won his 7th consecutive PGA Tour event, four shy of the record. Roger Federer won his 10th Grand Slam title, one away from tying that record. And it turns out that these two phenoms are friends. Greatness always admires greatness.
My first thought on Super Bowl XLI was that the Colts would run away with this game. But, as I’ll detail tomorrow, I can’t go with my gut instinct on this one. So now I have to figure out reasons why the Bears will keep it close.
At first glance, the NFL playoffs took on an air of normalcy last weekend. After a crazy season, all four home teams won and advanced. This marked the first time since 2000 that all four home teams won in Round 1 (and just the second time since this playoff format was introduced in 1990). The better teams were playing at home and the better teams won. Not so crazy, right?
I even got my prediction swerve on. I had the Colts by 13, and they won by 15. I had the Patriots by 28, and they won by 21. I covered the spread on the two NFC games, missing out on the actual finishes by the slimmest of margins. I had Cowboys by 1, and they lost by 1; I had the Giants by 3 in overtime, and they lost by 3 on a last second field goal. Considering the year I had picking games, I’m as shocked as you are that I went 4-0 against the spread last week.
Upon closer inspection of the Wild Card weekend games, it’s clear that Crazy was in the house. Perhaps the most normal contest was the Patriots-Jets game. But that was the largest margin of victory in a game involving division opponents since 1992. The previous 24 games between division rivals were all settled by 20 points or less, with 11 of them decided by 10 or fewer points.
The Colts won comfortably—which wasn’t surprising—but the way they won was a shocker. The run defense (infamously awful in the regular season) treated Larry Johnson like Rocky’s punching bag. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis offense was unexpectedly pitiful. Peyton Manning and the offense usually play well in their first playoff game. Not this year. If not for Chiefs’ coach Herm Edwards’ refusal to change his offensive game plan, the Colts might have been knocked out last week.
The Giants and Eagles—NFC East division foes—played a tight contest, as expected. But it was still a strange game. The Giants had 2nd-and-30 late in the 4th quarter and yet scored the tying touchdown three plays later. Two drives before that, the Eagles started on the Giants’ 42 and yet had to punt. But the strangest part of this game was watching the Giants’ most mature leader on the field—Jeremy Shockey—try to take control of the game. There’s nothing stranger than the words “mature” and “leader” being used to describe Shockey. (By the way, can we call the Eli Manning Experience a failure yet? While his contemporaries are excelling, Manning seems to be getting worse. And how did Tom Coughlin keep his job? So many questions. So few answers.)
And then there was the game that everyone’s been talking about. Cowboys-Seahawks. The safety. The bizarre playcalling. The bobbled snap. It was all there for one of the all-time craziest NFL playoff games. One Cowboys fan described it to me this way: “Worst. Way. To. Lose. Ever.” As a lifelong Red Sox fan, I reminded him o####ame from October 1986 that ranks right up there. But I feel his pain. Add this to the list of heartbreakingly awful ways to lose.
I’ve been wracking my brain trying to come up with another sports scenario that would demonstrate how crazy of a way this was to lose. I came up with two from baseball that illustrate the contradiction between the ease of the play itself and the end result of Romo’s miscue. Up by one run, runners on 2nd and 3rd, and there’s an easy popup to the shortstop. The shortstop drops the ball and kicks it. Both runs score and his team loses. Or, same baserunning scenario, and the batter strikes out but the catcher drops the ball. He calmly picks it up, takes a step to his right to throw to first for the final out, and airmails it into right field.
I can’t emphasize enough how easy of a play this should have been. All Romo had to do was put the ball on the ground and the Cowboys would probably have won the game. Romo had already done the hard part—catch the snap. He just needed to place it on the ground, spin it, and put his finger on top of it. Placing it on the ground seems like the easiest part of the whole process, doesn’t it? The only other football play that seems easier than that would be the end of game kneeldown. Now that would be a way to lose. “Romo takes the snap, he takes a knee and the Cowboys-- Wait! He dropped the ball! The Seahawks pick it up and run all the way to the 15, the 10, the 5, touchdown!” Until that happens, Romo’s fumble will forever be the barometer for screwed up easy plays that cost the team the game.
So the Cowboys (my preseason Super Bowl pick) lost on one of the craziest plays ever, after a crazy season involving the craziest player in the NFL I didn’t really believe the Cowboys could go all the way at this point, but I stuck with my Super Bowl pick anyway. Sure, it sounded crazy, but crazy is as crazy does. I’m not even picking another NFC team to take their place at this point. The Ravens are my Super Bowl favorites now. And I don’t see any NFC team knocking off any of the potential AFC participants.
Meanwhile, we’ve got three superb games on tap for the weekend. The four best teams in the NFL go head-to-head (Chargers-Patriots and Ravens-Colts), and the two hottest teams in the NFC square off (Saints-Eagles). If there were ever a weekend to lock yourself indoors and watch 40 hours of football games, pregame shows, and highlights, this is the one. Of course, there’s still that other game (Bears-Seahawks). If you haven’t put the Christmas decorations away yet, or you want to go outside and enjoy the global warming, then I’d skip that one.
I’m trying not to let my 4-0 playoff record against the spread go to my head. I’m taking this one game at a time, playing within myself, giving 110%. I’ve broken down the game film, researched the stats, and am ready to make picks. I’ve had a good week of preparation, and am feeling good about the picks. Here’s the way I see this weekend’s games:
BALTIMORE (-4) over Indianapolis
I’m predicting the same score I did in my NFL Preview (when I had these two teams playing next week instead of this week). That was when I clued the world in on the fact that the Ravens would be the team to beat this year: “Defense is where this division will be won…Baltimore’s going to put it together this year, beat Pittsburgh twice, win the division, and keep the Steelers from the playoffs.” Check and check. I picture this one a 3-3 tie at the half, with Manning slowly getting more and more frustrated. Three Colts turnovers (and 0 by the Ravens) translate into a healthy win by the Ravens. As a matter of fact, this is my lock of the week. Prediction: Ravens 27, Colts 10
NEW ORLEANS (-5) over Philadelphia
The two best teams in the NFC go head-to-head. The winner should be heading to the Super Bowl. This is the one I’ve been struggling with all week. The Eagles are a brand new team since McNabb went down. Head coach Andy Reid decided to have a more balanced offense instead of passing on two out of every three downs, probably because he was afraid of letting Jeff Garcia fling the ball around. So what happens? Garcia throws just 2 interceptions in seven games and Brian Westbrook turns into a verifiable rushing force. Meanwhile, NFL coach of the year Sean Payton has molded his Saints into a dangerous team. Plus they’ve had the bye to prepare for this one. This game’s going to be tight, with the Saints scoring a late touchdown and then stopping the Eagles on the final play of the game. Prediction: Saints 31, Eagles 24
Seattle (+8½) over CHICAGO
One of these teams actually gets to play in the NFC Championship Game. Unbelievable. I was going to give this one the 12-9 final score treatment until I looked up my prediction for last year’s Bears playoff game and saw that I predicted 12-9 in that one (a 29-21 Carolina win). Let’s go back in time and read what I wrote before that game: “This is my hands-down, no-doubt-about-it, can’t-miss, money-in-the-bank, no-questions-asked lock of the week. The Panthers, having played the Bears once already this season, will not be surprised at the speed of the Bears’ linebackers. Chicago won’t end up with 8 sacks on Jake Delhomme as they did in the first meeting.” The Bears registered just one sack in that game. It’s still the same deal. Teams playing the Bears twice this year either did better (the Lions lost by 5 and the Packers won in their second meetings) or not much worse (the Vikings lost by 10 after losing the first game by 3). And all I have to say about Rex Grossman is this(from my recap of last year’s Bears’ playoff loss): “Did anyone outside of Chicago believe that Grossman was going to lead the Bears on a game-tying drive on either of the Bears’ last two possessions? For that matter, did anyone in Chicago believe it? Or anyone on the field?” The more things change, the more they stay the same. Prediction: Seahawks 23, Bears 18
New England (+4½) over SAN DIEGO
Why do I feel so good about this pick? Is it Marty Schottenheimer’s dismal playoff record? Bill Belichick and Tom Brady’s amazing playoff success? This one could be an old-fashioned shootout, and the game of the weekend. LaDanian Tomlinson will get his yards. The Patriots will move the ball as well, thanks to their two-headed rushing attack. San Diego’s red zone offense against the Patriots’ red zone defense. Lots of scoring. Last team with the ball wins. And tell me—who would you trust more at the end of this game? Philip Rivers and Schottenheimer or Brady and Belichick? My money’s on New England. Prediction: Patriots 34, Chargers 31
One of the craziest NFL seasons on record came to a close last weekend in the only way it possibly could—with a crazy finish. A record 20 teams were alive for playoff spots entering the final set of games. And given the unimportance of Home Field Advantage this season, is it any surprise that the Kansas City Chiefs clinched a playoff spot because they won their game while three other teams lost at home?
Home teams finished the season 136-120. The best team in the NFC has a quarterback controversy. While the #2 seed in the NFC won only 10 games and received a bye, two AFC playoff teams with 12 wins have to play in Round 1. The NFC West champion Seattle Seahawks lost three of their last four games. The 8-8 Wild Card Giants lost six of their final eight games.
All these things only scratch the surface of crazy. This season was crazier than the finish of the Fiesta Bowl three nights ago. I have to digress here: has there ever been a sequence of football that included a team getting three shots at a tying two-point conversion; an interception returned for a touchdown on the very next play; a 4th-and-18 completion that turns into a touchdown thanks to the hook-and-ladder; a 25-yard scoring run on the first play of overtime; a scoring answer on 4th-and-2 that’s a direct snap wide receiver pass; a decision to go for 2 points instead of the tie; and the Statue of Liberty play for the win? The answer is no. Oh, and the kid who scored the winning points ran over and proposed to his cheerleader girlfriend after spiking the ball. Seriously, you’re kidding me with all of this, right? My only question is this: who does Boise State play this week?
Back to the NFL craziness. Earlier this year Matt Bryant of Tampa Bay kicked a 62-yard field goal to beat the Eagles. The Chicago Bears and Tennessee Titans each won games in which they scored 3 points on offense but 21 points on defense and/or special teams. One of the top quarterbacks in the league (Donovan McNabb) got injured and his replacement (Jeff Garcia) led them to the division title.
That’s the kind of year it’s been. It didn’t stop there. While the rest of the music industry treats appearances at sporting events as if they were at Uncle Louie’s 80th birthday party, we had a performance for the ages back in September. U2 and Green Day gave a stirring set in front of a sold out Louisiana Superdome crowd prior to the first home game for the Saints since before Hurricane Katrina. The Saints then rode a wave of emotion to a 23-3 win, and ended up the 2nd-best team in the NFC. This from a team that had a rookie head coach and didn’t even have a home field last season.
So with all of this craziness as a prelude, there’s no way the playoffs will be any saner, right? Chargers-Bears sounds like a reasonable Super Bowl pick. But with the way this year went, it’s an impossibility.
I said back in my NFL Preview that “NFL prognosticating is like raising children. We all—parents, experts, and extended family members—think we’re good at it, but does anyone really know what they’re talking about?” Who knew this season would put an exclamation point on that statement? Sports Illustrated’s Super Bowl picks—Miami and Carolina—didn’t even make the playoffs. Yours truly went a career-worst 112-140-4 against the spread. No one could figure out who would win any game or why.
So , why shouldn’t I be the one to restore some sense to things? After all, as bad as my weekly picks were, I still correctly predicted half of the playoff field (and left out Chicago and Seattle out of stubbornness, otherwise it would have nailed 8 out of 12), and not only are both of my Super Bowl picks in the hunt, but all four of my predicted championship teams are in the mix as well.
I’m going to stick with my Super Bowl prediction, but I’m going to predict that my original AFC Championship guess of Baltimore-Indianapolis will meet one round earlier. Why? Because a Jets win over New England would need to happen otherwise. And I just can’t predict that will happen. I just can’t. It’s not that it’s too crazy. It’s just too painful (as a Patriots fan).
Here’s the way I see Round 1 shaping up, along with the rest of the playoffs (including some crazy NFC picks):
Indianapolis 44, Kansas City 31
“You play to win the game!” And hope for three home teams to lose so that you can sneak in. To say the Chiefs are lucky to be here is an understatement. And even though Kansas City can run the ball and cause problems for the Colts’ defense, I see the Colts slowly pulling away in this high-scoring affair.
Dallas 36, Seattle 35
Following the Boise State formula, Terrell Owens throws the final touchdown pass and the Cowboys go for two with Terry Glenn running in the conversion on the Statue of Liberty play. Tony Romo proposes to Carrie Underwood on the sideline.
New England 38, NY Jets 10
I’ve gone back and forth on this game all week. Will it be close? Will it be a blowout? Will the Jets pull the upset? I’ve rewritten this paragraph 15 times. All right. I’m d
