Why do we like to make predictions? Everyone does it. And usually no one’s good at it. Sure, we have our moments. Like last year I correctly predicted that San Diego would win 11 games, Seattle would win 10, Tampa Bay would win 9, Buffalo would win 7, and the Patriots would advance to the Super Bowl. Of course I also predicted Green Bay would win 6 (they won 13), Baltimore would win 12 (they won 5), and the Pats would win the Super Bowl, beating New Orleans (who missed the playoffs at 7-9).
But we’ll give it another go this year. As I look ahead to this NFL season, I’ve decided that there are only five types of NFL teams as we head into each season: The Super Bowl Contenders, the Tragically Flawed Teams, the Teams on the Rise, the Teams on the Decline, and the Teams Already on the Clock (for a top 5 draft pick in 2009).
Let’s take a look at each category:
Teams Already on the Clock (for a top 5 draft pick in 2009)
Atlanta Rookie Matt Ryan will be the starting quarterback for the Falcons from day 1. Do I have to say any more?
Oakland The more things change in Oak-town, the more they stay the same. With glaring needs up and down the roster, the Raiders—who had the 6th-best rushing attack in football last season—selected a running back as their first draft pick. They might challenge once again for the league rushing title, but not much else will improve this year.
Kansas City Can two of the worst teams in the league really reside in the same division? Yes, they can. The Raiders-Chiefs match-up on November 30 might be for next year’s #1 draft pick.
Chicago Back in college my buddies and I got so good at Nintendo’s Tecmo Super Bowl—the last great pre-Madden video game—that we needed to challenge ourselves when playing the game. The game was based on the 1990 season, and the New York Giants were so good you could practically win with your eyes closed. So we’d use the Giants and try to win with just their defense, punting every time we were on offense. You could customarily win 10 games this way. This scenario is very much like the 2008 Chicago Bears—except for the 10 wins part. The Bears have a “revamped” offense that will consist of quarterback Kyle Orton (who threw 80 passes last year), rookie running back Matt Forte, and the untested Devin Hester at wide receiver. And, unfortunately for the Bears, the defense does not resemble the Tecmo Super Bowl Giants.
Cincinnati The inmates are running the asylum. When wide receiver Chris Henry was re-signed following the record-breaking 1,000th Bengals arrest in 1,000 days, it was just another signal that the Bengals still have no direction. Then wide receiver Chad Johnson officially changed his name to Chad Ocho Cinco, so that he could put that on the back of his jersey and not get fined. Things are going really well in Cincinnati.
Teams on the Decline
Baltimore After the Ravens won just 5 games last year, the former genius named Brian Billick was politely asked to leave and join the Coors Light cast of former coaches. Things weren’t looking up in Baltimore even they lost Kyle Boller for the season.
Denver The bloom might finally be off the rose of another genius: Mike Shanahan.
Buffalo I don’t like what I see in Buffalo. They’re focusing on the defense, but—like the Bears—their offense is so bad it just won’t matter. Last year the Bills’ offense was 30th in the league and their defense was 31st. Even if they improve one of those numbers a little it doesn’t move them up the win chart very far. I’m still trying to figure out how they won 7 games last year.
Washington Maybe it’s the yellow shoes. Or the way they got manhandled by the Giants. Or the way Jim Zorn slept-walk through coaching his first NFL game on Thursday. Or the fact that quarterback Jason Campbell is working under his 100th different offensive system since pee wee football. One of these reasons explains why the Redskins will not be good this year.
Tennessee I’m not buying what Tennessee is selling. The defense is good, the rushing offense is good, but Vince Young scares me and the Colts and Jaguars are far superior to the Titans.
Detroit Jon Kitna is still the quarterback, they have rookies all over the place, and it will be at least one more year before Detroit can turn things around.
Seattle I feel the same way about the Seahawks that I felt about the Bears last season. Everyone looked at the Bears and said, “Well, they’ve done it the last two seasons and no one else in their division is ready to step up.” I bought into the hype and penciled the Bears in for 12 wins. So what happened? The Bears went 7-9 and Green Bay stepped up and won the division. I don’t have a good feeling about the Seahawks this year, so I’m going with that feeling this time.
Green Bay They drove an icon out of town. A bad start is going to mean boos raining down on head coach Mike McCarthy’s and quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ heads. Can this team weather the kind of firestorm that developed in the offseason?
Teams on the Rise
Miami With just one win last season, the Dolphins have to be on the rise, don’t they? With Bill Parcells at the helm, the Fish are moving in the right direction, and Chad Pennington has to be worth a win or two.
Houston The Texans won a franchise-best 8 games last year, and head coach Gary Kubiak has them headed in the right direction. They might not be ready to challenge Indianapolis and Jacksonville for the top of their division, but they might challenge Tennessee for 3rd place and could even end up with their first-ever winning season.
Carolina Quarterback Jake Delhomme is healthy and head coach John Fox customarily gets more out of his teams than many other head coaches. The Panthers turn things around this year and challenge the Saints for South supremacy.
Arizona San Francisco St. Louis One of these three teams has to rise up and challenge Seattle. Right? The Seahawks have won their division four years in a row. During that stretch only New England and Indianapolis have won their divisions every year. The Seahawks? Enough is enough. All I have to say is [using Chris Berman’s voice], “Come on Arizona, San Francisco, and St. Louis!”
Tragically Flawed
NY Jets The good news for the Jets is that they picked up Brett Favre. The bad news for the Jets is that they picked up Brett Favre. Even during Green Bay’s magical run last year, you just had that feeling that the bad Brett Favre was itching to bubble to the top. And then, in overtime of the NFC title game, there it was—the fateful interception we’d all been waiting for. Favre will be worth an extra regular season win or two (plus all of the moves the Jets made in the offseason will net another win or two) but somewhere along the line, the gunslinging Favre will end the Jets’ season early.
Tampa Bay Super Bowl XLIII will be played in Raymond James Stadium, home of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. No team has ever advanced to a Super Bowl played in their home stadium.
New Orleans I like the Saints. I really do. And I thought they were making all the right moves this offseason. Until they picked up Jeremy Shockey. Shockey is a quality player and brings a unique toughness to the tight end position. But not the clubhouse kind of guy that brings a team together. You want some evidence? Try last year’s Giants—who went on a run that culminated in a Super Bowl championship. After Shockey got hurt. I’m just saying.
San Diego By all accounts Chargers head coach Norv Turner is a nice guy and a decent coach. But how many decent coaches win the Super Bowl? You have to go back to the ’95 Cowboys with Barry Switzer before you find a Super Bowl-winning coach that could be described by words less exemplary than “really good.” And as for nice guys winning it all, consider this: The last eight Super Bowls were won by guys named Tom Coughlin, Tony Dungy, Bill Cowher, Bill Belichick, Jon Gruden, and Brian Billick. Or—putting it another way—Tony Dungy and five guys I wouldn’t want as my best friend. As my head coach? Definitely. You want some combination of smart, fiery, win-at-all-costs, and single-minded about football—but not nice or decent.
Dallas Something’s wrong in Big D. How else to explain their inexplicable loss by one point two seasons ago on a botched extra point attempt? Or last year’s collapse to the division-rival G-Men? I can’t put my finger on it, but something in this team’s makeup is not working. And it isn’t just the insane social experiment they are trying with the likes of Terrell Owens, Pacman Jones, and Tank Johnson. Something is off in Dallas. They might win their first playoff game in 12 years, but win the whole thing? I just can’t see it happening.
Super Bowl Contenders
By my count there are eight teams with a legitimate chance to win the Super Bowl this year.
Cleveland Cleveland? Yes, Cleveland. Think about this: The last eight Super Bowl Champions have either been defense-only squads, teams with a solid defense that complimented their offense, or teams that got hot defensively at the right time (including the ’06 Colts who allowed 31 points in three of their playoff games, and held the Patriots to two field goals in the pivotal 4th quarter of the AFC Championship Game). Defense wins championships and defensive-minded coaches—like Romeo Crennel, the architect of the Patriots’ defense during their three Super Bowl wins—is a defensive guy. Plus Cleveland is mortgaging the future to win now.
NY Giants Could the Giants possibly do it again? This team is built on solid defense, an impressive running game, and Coughlin’s coaching. If Eli Manning can remain the playoff quarterback we saw last year—who knows? If the Giants make the playoffs again, no one’s going to want them on their schedule.
Pittsburgh I love Mike Tomlin. Ben Roethlisberger is putting it all together (and is healthy). And the Steelers are yet another defense-first type team. They went 10-6 last year and have (on paper) the toughest schedule this year, with eight games against 2007 playoff teams. I could see the Steelers just barely making the playoffs but then putting together a playoff similar to the one they put together three years ago or the Giants did last year.
Indianapolis Remember how the Colts won Super Bowl XLI (see the Cleveland entry above)? Solid coaching, Hall of fame quarterback, and a defense that finally put it together. Last year the Colts had the 3rd-best defense in football. All the ingredients are there for the Colts.
Philadelphia When Donovan McNabb is healthy, the Eagles soar. (Wow. Bad pun.) They have a solid running game and are stout defensively. They went 8-8 in a division that produced three playoff teams last year. This team is primed for another run at the title.
Jacksonville As a Patriots fan, if there’s one team in the AFC that scares me to death it’s the Jaguars. David Garrard is a question mark, but this Florida team is built to play in cold weather games, as evidenced by their 2nd-best rushing attack last year and playoff win in Pittsburgh. Their two nemeses are the Colts (they’ve lost 5 out of their last 6 games against Indianapolis) and the Patriots (their last two playoff runs ended at the hands of New England). The Jaguars are going to be a dangerous team once again this year, and the Colts and the Patriots are in their cross-hairs.
Minnesota Everyone’s high on the Vikings, and with good reason. The team finished with the best rushing attack and the best rushing defense in the NFL, then made huge moves in the offseason to add Jared Allen (15½ sacks, most in the NFL last year), wide receiver Bernard Berrian (951 yards receiving), and free safety Madieu Williams. Tarvaris Jackson is a question mark at quarterback, but if all-world running back Adrian Peterson continues to make Jackson’s life easier and the defense plays the way they are expected to, it’s going to be a huge year in Minnesota.
New England The United States Olympic basketball team received the name “Redeem Team,” so the Patriots will need another moniker. Only in the NFL can a team lose just one game over the course of six months and walk away unfulfilled. But that’s where the Patriots stand as they enter the 2008 season. The first undefeated season since 1972 is a long way in the rearview mirror after their stunning loss to the Giants in the Super Bowl. The Patriots are the odds on favorites to win the Super Bowl and have to be wiser than they were last year. Following the Spygate scandal in Week 1 last year, the goal was to win—and win big. This year the goal will be to win as many as they can, but to enter the playoffs prepared, healthy, and on a roll. They have the team and the coaching staff to do it.
Predicted Finish
AFC EastAFC NorthAFC SouthAFC West
New England 14-2
Cleveland 10-6
Indianapolis 11-5
San Diego 12-4
NY Jets 10-6
Pittsburgh 10-6
Jacksonville 11-5
Denver 6-10
Buffalo 6-10
Baltimore 5-11
Houston 9-7
Oakland 4-12
Miami 5-11
Cincinnati 5-11
Tennessee 7-9
Kansas City 2-14
NFC EastNFC NorthNFC SouthNFC West
Dallas 12-4
Minnesota 12-4
New Orleans 10-6
Arizona 10-6
Philadelphia 11-5
Green Bay 9-7
Carolina 9-7
St. Louis 8-8
NY Giants 10-6
Detroit 6-10
Tampa Bay 7-9
Seattle 7-9
Washington 6-10
Chicago 5-11
Atlanta 1-15
San Francisco 6-10
AFC Championship Game
New England over Jacksonville
NFC Championship Game
Minnesota over Philadelphia
Super Bowl XLIII
New England over Minnesota
NFL Week 1 Picks
Cincinnati (-1½) over BALTIMORE
Detroit (-3) over ATLANTA
PITTSBURGH (-6½) over Houston
TENNESSEE (+3) over Jacksonville
NEW ENGLAND (-15½) over Kansas City
NY Jets (-3) over MIAMI
BUFFALO (-1) over Seattle
PHILADELPHIA (-7½) over St. Louis
NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Tampa Bay
Arizona (-2½) over SAN FRANCISCO
Carolina (+9) over SAN DIEGO
CLEVELAND (+5½) over Dallas
INDIANAPOLIS (-9½) over Chicago
Minnesota (+2½) over GREEN BAY
As matchbox twenty sings, “Let’s see how far we’ve come.”
Eighteen weeks after the 2007 season began, we’ve got an AFC Championship match-up that seemed plausible prior to the season, and an NFC match-up that no one saw coming back in August.
The road to Super Bowl XLII has been long and winding. With just one Sunday of football remaining before the hype truly begins, let’s take a look at what we’ve learned during this NFL season and postseason.
Jacksonville’s in the wrong division Heck, they might even be in the wrong conference. They’ve lost five out of six to Indianapolis, leaving them without the opportunity to win their division year after year. This means a Wild Card spot at best and no real chance to make it to the Super Bowl. If they were in the NFC they might just be a perennial powerhouse.
This is a shame for the Jaguars, because they showed last week just how good they can be in their battle royale with the undefeated Patriots. It might have been the last tough game the Patriots have this year to tell you the truth. But the Jags still lost, and if they don’t find a way to get past the Colts (or get switched to a different division) painful road playoff losses remain in the Jaguars’ future.
The NFC is a crapshoot Seven different teams have won an NFC division in the last two years. Only Seattle repeated as division champion this year. In the AFC, three of the four division champions repeated, with New England and Indianapolis winning their divisions for five straight years. If I needed to do my NFL 2008 preview right now, I’d go with New England, Indianapolis, and San Diego to repeat again, and Cleveland to get over the hump. And in the NFC? Who knows? How about Arizona, Washington, Detroit, and Atlanta?
Offense is in It wasn’t just Tom Brady and Randy Moss and their record-setting seasons. Scoring was up across the board and there was no defense that stood out like in seasons past. The last Super Bowl champion that rode their offense to the title was the ’99 Rams (and that team actually gave up just 22 points over their final two games). The last seven champions held their first playoff opponent under 20 points, and all but the ’04 Patriots held their first two playoff opponents under 20 points. This week’s favorites to make the Super Bowl, the Patriots and Packers, each gave up 20 points in their first playoff games (and scored 31 and 42, respectively). This season, and playoffs, is all about the offense.
Resting players = losing playoff recipe Tampa Bay rested their players for an unprecedented two straight weeks then lost at home to the Giants. The Cowboys and Colts both rested players prior to their bye week and both lost at home. Meanwhile, the Giants and Patriots battled to the death prior to the playoffs with nothing to gain and each stands one game from the Super Bowl. It’s a trend to keep an eye on for future postseasons.
Maybe it’s the Chargers who are the problem After the Chargers questioned the Patriots’ class after last year’s playoff tussle (Public Enemy #1) I started to wonder if what the players were saying was true. But then I watched the Chargers jaw with the Broncos. And the Titans. And the Colts’ fans. And I thought, “maybe it’s the Chargers who have no class.” I’m just saying…
It’s a good thing Peyton won a ring last year Watching the Colts blow another playoff game at home last week made me even angrier that the Patriots lost to them last year. But the perfect season wouldn’t have happened without that loss (more on that in a moment), so I guess in retrospect it was a good thing. For both the Patriots and Peyton Manning. The Colts won the Super Bowl, did it by going through the Patriots, and Peyton got his ring.
By the way he and his teammates played last week leads me to believe it might be his only ring. His best receiver was barely able to take the field (and then he fumbled when he did) and the offense’s play-calling was awful while the execution was even worse. Last year just might have been it for the Colts.
Yes, everyone, I’m sorry, but the Patriots are this good It took the perfect storm of events to produce the first 17-0 team since the ’72 Dolphins. But that storm arrived. One year ago this weekend the first brick in the foundation was laid, as the Patriots’ offense couldn’t catch a key pass to win the game and the aging defense ran out of gas against the Colts. Then Belichick had to coach the Pro Bowl and I believe he secretly vowed to never be there again. New England loaded up with three wide receivers and the best defensive free agent on the market. Finally, “spygate” occurred, galvanized the team, and the rest is history.
I think Belichick’s defensive game plan for the last six weeks has been to play as vanilla as possible until the second half. If the game’s been close, he releases the hounds. Meanwhile, the offense continues to be a nearly unstoppable machine. It’s reached the point in which the first opponent’s turnover or punt signals that the game is officially over.
Championship Weekend Picks
San Diego (+14½) over New England I’ve incorrectly picked the Patriots’ games against the spread in each of the last four weeks, so I’ll go opposite what I really think will happen in this one and say the Chargers somehow cover the spread. They barely won in Indy, flew back to San Diego, flew across the country again with one fewer day off than the undefeated Patriots, they have a gimpy quarterback, running back, and tight end, the Patriots are clicking on all cylinders, and it’s going to be 12 degrees. It all spells blowout to me. But they’ll probably score a late touchdown to cover the spread, just because I keep getting it wrong. Prediction: Patriots 34, Chargers 20
Green Bay (-7) over New York Giants I think the Giants finally run out of steam this week. The Packers have been lighting it up, and were most impressive after falling behind 14-0 last week. On a slow track like Lambeau in the winter, their defense plays really fast, and Favre has reinvented himself in the twilight of his career. This one will probably be close until late in the game as the Pack pulls away. Prediction: Packers 30, Giants 21
3rd-6, PIT26 2:56 B. Roethlisberger rushed to the left for 1 yard gain
One play shouldn’t define a game or a season, but more often than not one play from a playoff game stands out. Last week it was Ben Roethlisberger’s failed 3rd-and-6 bootleg. The Steelers punted, the Jaguars drove to the 7-yard line, kicked a field goal, and won the game.
That one play stands out more than any other play in the game. More than David Garrard’s 4th down run that kept the Jaguars’ drive alive. More than the Steelers’ failed two-point conversion attempt from the 12-yard line.
Why the 3rd down run by Roethlisberger? Because it showed such a clear misunderstanding of what was needed.
Let’s start with the first 2-point try. The Steelers had just scored to cut the lead to 28-23 with 14 minutes left in the game. Sure, 14 minutes is a lot of time, but two drives earlier the Jaguars had held the ball for almost five minutes and scored a touchdown. Time was indeed running out on the Steelers, and two points was going to get them within a field goal (instead of a touchdown) and increase their chances of winning the game. Even after a (phantom) holding penalty pushed the Steelers back to the 12-yard line, I have no issues with the Steelers going for two there. It showed that they were willing to do whatever they needed to do to win the game.
On the other hand, a Roethlisberger designed rollout/run on 3rd-and-6? That has “I’m so afraid of a turnover that I don’t even want my quarterback to attempt to give the ball to anyone else on the team for fear that something bad will happen” written all over it. That’s the mentality that losing teams have, not a team with a chance to win a playoff game.
That 3rd down play was the culmination o####ame in which the only times the Steelers scored were when they played aggressively. The Steelers opened the game with six straight pass plays (and ended up scoring a touchdown), and Roethlisberger threw on seven consecutive downs at one point in the game. Granted he had three interceptions in the 1st half. But when the chips were down and they needed yards, Big Ben gave them yards.
To take the lead and then go ultra-conservative was inviting trouble. And trouble came a-knocking in the form of David Garrad’s 4th down scramble. That was a designed run out of the shotgun by a guy that can run, and was coach Jack Del Rio’s way of saying, “we are not losing this game.”
A lesson Steelers’ head coach Mike Tomlin needs to learn. NFL Playoffs Round 2 Selections
It was a 2-2 week against the spread last week (and an abysmal 1-3 straight up). Two underdogs covered, as I predicted. Just not the ones I picked. (The story of my season this year.)
As we head into Round 2, you’ll hear a lot of people talking about how the top four teams rarely all make it to the Championship round. But it has happened twice in the last four years, and it seems likely to happen again this year.
Forget the fact that the four teams with byes are clearly the four best teams in the NFL and they’ve all had a week off to prepare. Just look at the eight teams that played last week for a moment. The Steelers blew their game at home but the team that beat them tried to give the game away in the 4th quarter, allowing 19 points in 8 minutes and 32 seconds. The Titans’ game plan was apparently to try and lull the Chargers to sleep, which almost worked, except for the Chargers’ game plan of doing their best Marty Schottenheimer impression until the 2nd half. (Which reminds me: Everyone who says that this season was more successful under Norv Turner than last season under Schottenheimer just because the Chargers won a playoff game is delusional. The Chargers went 14-2 last year and had a bye in the first round. Basically, this season as of right now is still not better than last year because San Diego must go on the road for their next playoff game. If the Chargers pull off the upset this week in Indianapolis, then we can talk.)
The Redskins played their sixth straight game on pure emotion while the Seahawks played some of the worst football known to man for 52 minutes and then played well for a grand total of 5 minutes, enough time to score 22 fourth quarter points, with 14 coming on interception returns for touchdowns. And Tampa Bay spent three weeks resting players and preparing for the Giants and then came out with the worst game plan in history, while the Giants’ game plan was to keep Eli Manning on a tight leash (20-27, 185 yards) and hope the defense (1 sack, 3 turnovers) could win the game.
My point? Could any one of those eight teams have beaten any of the four teams on a bye? I say no. I think all four home teams win this weekend, with only the Giants coming close and covering the spread.
Green Bay (-7½) over Seattle A rematch of the fantastic 2004 playoff game in which Matt Hasselbeck declared—after the Seahawks won the coin toss in over time—“we’ll take the ball and we’re going to score!” And then he threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown. I’ll tell you what I’m tired of hearing about: Playoff experience (the Packers have little, the Seahawks have a lot). In Joe Montana’s 13 non-Super Bowl championship seasons, did the 49ers lose because the other team had more playoff experience, or was the other team just better sometimes? Something to think about, because the Packers are the better team. By far. Pick: Packers 30, Seahawks 13
New England (-13) over Jacksonville Can everyone please just stop with propping up the Jaguars as world beaters? They played a very solid first half against the Steelers last week and then came through when they needed to in the 4th quarter. But their quarterback completed just 9 passes for the entire game. I just don’t see it. The Patriots are rested and ready for the first time in a month. They haven’t had an opportunity to run up the score on an opponent in eight weeks. I don’t think this one will even be close. Pick: Patriots 42, Jaguars 16
Indianapolis (-9) over San Diego I thought that the spread on this one was too high until I remembered how bad the Chargers looked last week. The same Titans team that the Colts almost beat with their backups had the Chargers dead to rights with about 20 minutes left in the game. The Titans led 6-3 and the Chargers had a 3rd-and-4. Rivers completed a pass to Tomlinson for a 1st down and San Diego eventually pulled away. This same Chargers team—without tight end Antonio Gates—is supposed to travel across the country and beat a rested Colts team in the dome? Pick: Colts 34, Chargers 17
NY Giants (+7½) over Dallas With the Jessica Simpson distraction looming over the Cowboys’ heads, there’s no way their focus is there for this game. (Just kidding. That might have been the most ridiculous “controversy” in the history of controversies.) Terrell Owens is hurt, the Cowboys have not played well the last few weeks of the season, and this Giants team is apparently better than I’ve given them credit for, especially defensively. The Giants bring enough pressure to disrupt the Cowboys’ offense, and save for one bad 4th quarter pass against the Patriots, Eli Manning has played very well the last two weeks. Plus this will be the third time the Cowboys and Giants play each other this year, and five of the last six playoff games between division foes has been decided by two touchdowns or less. I have a funny feeling that the Giants will keep this one close, but I just can’t see the Cowboys losing this one. Pick: Cowboys 27, Giants 24
If the four favorites win, we’ll have the best final four since the ’98 season when the 15-1 Vikings took on the 14-2 Falcons and the 14-2 Broncos played the 12-4 Jets. The Vikings had set all of the offensive records but fell to the surprising Falcons in overtime, while the Parcells-coached Jets led 10-0 late in the 3rd quarter before the Broncos stormed back for a 23-10 win.
And if it’s Patriots-Colts and Cowboys-Packers, settle in for one of the best Championship Sundays in a long time.
This year’s NFL regular season brought us the renaissance of a legend, a team rising above the death of one of their own players, the craziest field goal we’ve ever seen, one of the best in-game snowstorms we’ve ever seen, a rookie sensation taking the league by storm, a mere 9 losses registered by the league’s top 4 teams (with three of those losses coming in games against each other), and heavily-hyped games that lived up the hype.
Oh, and the first team in NFL history to go 16-0 (more on whether or not the Patriots’ season was the greatest of all time in a moment).
Maybe I’m in the “whatever is new is always great” club today, but the NFL season that concluded last week sure seemed like one of the best to come along in ages. Brett Favre’s transformation from old man winter (71.8 passer rating with 38 TDs, 47 INTs, and 12 wins the previous two seasons) to the lion in winter (95.7 passer rating with 28 TDs, 15 INTs, and 13 wins this season) was an incredible sight to behold.
Just as incredible was watching the Washington Redskins—who lost Sean Taylor, one of their best defensive players to a shooting death—go 4-0 after regrouping and make the playoffs. And Taylor was elected to the Pro Bowl after his death.
In Week 11, Cleveland kicker Phil Dawson kicked a game-tying 51-yard field goal that hit the left upright, went through the uprights, hit the support post behind the crossbar, then bounded back onto the field. To the naked eye, it looked no good. But after a seemingly endless delay the officials—without the aid of replay, which isn’t used on field goals—decided correctly that the field goal was indeed good. The Browns went on to win in overtime. Never seen anything like that, have we?
Four weeks later the Browns and Bills locked up in an 8-0 game in a veritable blizzard. Of course the hero of the game was kicker Phil Dawson, who connected from 35 and 49 yards on a day in which staying on your feet was difficult, never mind using them to score points.
Speaking of feet, Vikings rookie Adrian Peterson used his to rush for 1,341 yards in 14 games, ending the season with a yards-per-rush average of 5.6. And in a Week 9 game against San Diego, he set the NFL single-game rushing record with 296 yards.
This was the year that the cream rose to the top. The Patriots, Cowboys, Packers, and Colts combined for a record of 55-9 (52-6 if you take out the games against each other). This season is tied with 1998 for best record among the top 4 teams in the 16-game season era (the Vikings, Falcons, Broncos, and Jets combined for 9 losses that season).
And you want big games? Meaningful games between top teams that live up to the hype? How about the Patriots throttling the Chargers in Week 2 after “spygate” erupted? Or the Patriots beating the Cowboys in one of the few 5-0 vs. 5-0 games in league history? Or Green Bay winning in Denver on Monday night on a Favre overtime touchdown pass? Want more? The 8-0 Patriots coming back from 10 down in the 4th quarter to beat the 7-0 Colts springs to mind. Or the Chargers beating those same Colts the next week on Sunday night. And the Cowboys knocking off the Packers on a Thursday night NFL Network special. Finally, the Patriots putting the finishing touches on an undefeated season by coming back from 12 down to beat the Giants in a “meaningless” game watched by 34.5 million people on three networks.
NBC’s flex schedule worked perfectly this season, giving us week after week of important games. The NFL Network tried in vain to find its place on the American television set but needed an assist in the final week. Even the Dolphins’ run at infamy made this season special. Call me crazy, but it just might have been the best season ever.
Which brings us back to the Patriots. Their remarkable run to 16-0 just might have been the greatest NFL season of all time. The detractors will point out that the Patriots faced the Dolphins and Jets twice (those two teams went a combined 5-27). But division rivals and 4-12 squads are the kinds of teams that usually derail these kinds of runs at history (the 1990 49ers lost their first game to the 5-11 Rams). I’ll make no apologies for the teams the Patriots faced this season.
As a matter of fact, they played and beat four division winners (two on the road), six playoff teams, and eight teams that finished 8-8 or better. If not for the Patriots, the Browns, Bills, and Eagles might have made the playoffs this year. The Redskins were able to rebound from their loss at the hands of the Patriots. It will be interesting to see how the Giants fare following last week’s showdown.
What else made this Patriots season so special? They outscored their opponents by 315 points. 10 other teams scored fewer than 315 points. The seasons Tom Brady and Randy Moss had. (Can we call the trade of a 4th round pick for Randy Moss the greatest NFL trade of all time?)
Or how about how in their four closest games (against the Colts, Eagles, Ravens, and Giants), they outscored their opponents 46-21 in the 4th quarter? Or the fact that their largest deficit of the season—12 points—came with 24 minutes and 12 seconds remaining in game 16?
Their 44 punts were the fewest punts by a team in a 16-game season. The previous record of fewest punts by a Patriots team was 49. That was set in the strike-shortened 1982 season when the team played 9 games.
Wes Welker was a joy to watch. The relentless passing attack was often poetry in motion. Their video game-esque demolitions of the Dolphins, Redskins, and Bills, sandwiched around the win in Indianapolis, were some of the most amazing performances the league has ever seen.
Prior to the Colts game, I wrote: “Tom Brady has thrown for 20 touchdowns and the Patriots have outscored their opponents 179-45. In the first half.” For the season, those numbers were: 32 touchdowns for Brady, and a 333-137 advantage over their opponents in the first half. Only Tony Romo (36) threw more touchdowns on the season than Brady did in the first half. The 333 first half points the Patriots scored were one fewer than the Redskins and Buccaneers scored all season. And the Titans only scored 301. Those are three playoff teams.
The numbers are staggering, the competition was formidable, and the season was unforgettable. It was a season for the ages, and quite possibly the greatest season of all time.NFL Playoff Round 1 Selections
Washington (+3½) over Seattle Everyone likes the Redskins for the emotion factor, and other than that the only reason to like them in this game is that in the last three years 2 underdogs covered in Round 1, so this one will be one of mine. I know Seattle is tough at home and Washington quarterback is Todd Collins is untested, but I’ll go with Washington anyway. One more week of the feel good story for Joe Gibbs and his troops. Pick: Redskins 21, Seahawks 20
Pittsburgh (+2½) over Jacksonville I’ve gone back and forth on this one all week. There’s no way the Steelers could lose at home to the Jaguars twice, go with Pittsburgh. Jacksonville’s playing much better football than Pittsburgh, go with Jacksonville. Mike Tomlin’s playoff inexperience. Jacksonville’s recent playoff losses. Which way to go? I’m going with Pittsburgh to win a close one at home. Pick: Steelers 26, Jaguars 23
Tampa Bay (-2½) over New York Giants That was a valiant effort by the Giants last week and an impressive performance against the undefeated Patriots. But I don’t think they have a chance in this one. Add it all up: the starters played a playoff-type game last week while Tampa’s been resting for two weeks; when the Patriots pressured Eli Manning in the 2nd half, he went 9-14 for 70 yards with one interception, one center-QB fumble, and one sack—expect a lot of pressure this week from the Bucs; it’s Jon Gruden and Jeff Garcia against Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning. Sounds like a Tampa win to me. Pick: Buccaneers 29, Giants 15
San Diego (-10) over Tennessee Four of the last five teams favored by 7 or more in the 1st round of the playoffs won and covered. And this Chargers team is far superior in talent to the Titans. As a matter of fact, I’m not even sure how the Titans are in the playoffs. They scored just four more points than they allowed, had four more turnovers than forced turnovers, and got just 9 touchdown passes against 17 interceptions out of Vince Young. Their only win against a playoff team (and the Colts game last week doesn’t count) was way back in Week 1 when they beat Jacksonville. Not even Chargers coach Norv Turner can stop the Chargers from blowing out the Titans in this one. Pick: Chargers 38, Titans 13
If these results happen, it sets us up for a pretty good Round 2 with Pats-Steelers, Colts-Chargers, Cowboys-Redskins, and Packers-Bucs. Well, three intriguing games anyway.
The 2007 NFL season kicks off tomorrow night with the defending world champion Indianapolis Colts hosting the New Orleans Saints. Seven months after Peyton Manning and the Colts showed that they could indeed win the big one, they get to play the role of defending champion.
No more Michael Vick discussions. No more debates on the length of the preseason. No more reminiscing about (or gnashing teeth over) last year’s results.
I covered most of the questions that we’re all seeking answers to last week in Part 1 of the Sports in a Can NFL Preview. So, without further ado, let’s get to this year’s predictions. Division winners are in bold, wild card teams are in italics:
AFC East New England 13-3 Buffalo 7-9 NY Jets 7-9 Miami 4-12
In what amounted to a rebuilding year, the Patriots won 12 games and were one play away from the Super Bowl last season. Seven months later they’ve added the best defensive free agent available (Adalius Thomas) and three wide receivers (Wes Welker, Donte’ Stallworth, and Randy Moss) that are so much better than what they had last year they released last season’s yardage leader (Reche Caldwell). Does it matter that Richard Seymour can’t play until at least Week 7 or that Rodney Harrison was using HGH and will miss the first four games? A little, but not enough to derail what will be the best team in the NFL this year. Meanwhile, Buffalo lost almost all of their defensive players to free agency or injury. The Jets will take a step backward—last season’s 10 wins were a little suspect (their final 5 wins were against Houston, Miami, Oakland, Green Bay, and Minnesota, who won a combined 26 games, or 5.2 each). And the Dolphins are now officially a mess.
Questions abound in this division. How different will the Ravens’ defense be without Adalius Thomas? How much of an impact will new head coach Mike Tomlin have on the Steelers? How many Bengals will get arrested? And will the Browns ever be good? Baltimore shouldn’t miss Thomas much, as that defense is packed with players. The Steelers will be good enough under their new coach to get back to the playoffs. The Benglas will win exactly 8 games for the 4th time in 5 years. And the Browns are at least a year away. Maybe more.
AFC South
Indianapolis 12-4 Jacksonville 10-6 Tennessee 7-9 Houston 5-11
The defending Super Bowl Champion Colts lost linebacker Cato June, left tackle Tarik Glenn, defensive tackle Booger McFarland, and cornerback Nick Harper. They will not be as good as they were last year, but with four games against the Titans and Texans, along with Kansas City, Oakland, and Atlanta on the schedule, they don’t need to be as good to nail down 12 wins and their 5th straight division crown. Will Jacksonville ever be able to put it together? They released quarterback Byron Leftwhich over the weekend, meaning David Garrard (and his 3,543 career passing yards) is now the full-time starter. Their defense will be stellar again, but the offense is a huge question mark. The Titans, meanwhile, with Vince “I need to sleep in my own bed” Young will take a step backward. With games at Jacksonville, vs. Indianapolis, and at New Orleans to begin the season, there might be some bruised egos heading into their bye week. And the Texans remain the Texans. Unless Matt Shaub (and his 1,033 career passing yards) turns out to be the next Joe Montana. Which is doubtful.
AFC West
San Diego 11-5 Denver 8-8 Kansas City 5-11 Oakland 3-13
The Chargers had the talent to win it all last year. Unfortunately, they were led into the postseason by Marty Schottenheimer and his career 5-12 postseason record. And for the 4th time in his career, he took a 12+ win team into a home playoff game and lost. Replacing Schottenheimer is Norv Turner. You might know Turner (58-82-1 in his career) from such hits as, “I ruined the Redskins” and, “Yes you can win 9 games in 2 years with a team 2 years removed from the Super Bowl and still get another job.” San Diego has too much talent for even Norv to mess up that badly, so 11 wins and the division crown it is. He’ll be helped by the down year I predict for the AFC West. Denver head coach Mike Shanahan somehow coaxed 9 wins out of the Broncos last year. But with untested Jay Cutler anointed as the quarterback, I can’t see Denver winning more than 8 games. And the Chiefs will suffer the second year blues under head coach Herm Edwards. Meanwhile the Raiders continue to be just plain awful.
NFC East
Philadelphia 10-6 Washington 8-8 Dallas 7-9 NY Giants 6-10
Year after year, there’s one thing you can count on in the NFC East: The Eagles being at the top. The Eagles have won 10 games or more 6 times in the last 7 years, so I’ll give them the nod for 10 this year. The rest of the division has problems. The NFL may have passed Joe Gibbs by, but I’ll give him credit for giving it a go, and with the talent they have, there’s no reason for them to win fewer than 8 games. For the Cowboys, new head coach Wade Phillips is walking into a difficult situation. Only once out of the three times Bill Parcells has left a franchise has the team won more games the next season. Plus he’s got the Terrell Owens factor to deal with, along with quarterback Tony Romo’s psyche after dropping the snap on last year’s extra point in the playoffs. And then there are the Giants. I was high on them last year but the fact remains that Eli is no Peyton, head coach Tom Coughlin’s style has a short shelf life, and they’re going to miss running back Tiki Barber (over 2,000 yards rushing and receiving in each of the last three years) more than they think.
NFC North
Chicago 12-4 Minnesota 9-7 Green Bay 6-10 Detroit 4-12
It’s a testament to how bad the NFC is in comparison to the AFC that the Bears are probably going to win 12 games again. They have a solid defense, an awful quarterback, and a head coach that’s out of his element in the biggest moments. (Lovie Smith is a nice enough guy, but re-read my recap of last year’s “win” over the Seahawks in the playoffs and tell me if you’d want him coaching your team.) But playing in the NFC, having the 31st easiest schedule (according to last season’s records), and fielding a defense that can win games by itself at times will power the Bears to 12 wins. The Vikings seem to be the only other team in this division that has a chance to be respectable. I like what Brad Childress is doing in Minnesota, and he has turned that team from a laughing stock into a potential playoff team. They just need to find some offense to go with their incredible run-stopping defense (they allowed 111 fewer rushing yards per game than the Colts last year). I still don’t know how Green Bay won 8 games last year, but without running back Ahman Green, Brett Favre will have to throw more. With 47 interceptions (to go with 38 touchdowns) in the last two seasons, Favre throwing more is not what the Packers are looking for. And the Lions can run as many 5 receiver sets as they want. Jon Kitna is throwing the ball to them.
NFC South
New Orleans 12-4 Carolina 11-5 Tampa Bay 9-7 Atlanta 2-14
The Saints, last year’s surprise team, will continue to be a team on the rise. Drew Brees has seemingly overnight transformed into one of the premier quarterbacks in the league. Since his abysmal 2003 season, Brees has thrown 77 touchdowns against only 33 interceptions. Last season he led the league with 4,418 passing yards. Between Brees, the emergence of all-world Reggie Bush, and the coaching of Sean Payton, the Saints will emerge as the top team in the NFC this year. Meanwhile, the Panthers will be right there with them, winning 11 games. How do I know for sure? Here are the Panthers’ wins the last 5 years: 7-11-7-11-8. And it should have been 7 last year—I have no idea how the Panthers won in Baltimore in Week 6. So 11 it is. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is putting it together finally. I thought last year would be the year, but with the addition of Jeff “I am now the man” Garcia, 9 wins seems attainable. And Michael Vick has a better chance of starring in a Prison Break cameo than the Falcons do of winning more than 2 games this year.
NFC West
San Francisco 10-6 Seattle 10-6 St. Louis 8-8 Arizona 7-9
An improved 49ers squad will finally make the leap to the promised land of the playoffs this year. Consider this: San Francisco beat Seattle twice last season and then got the Seahawks’ best receiver (Darrell Jackson) from them in a trade. Quarterback Alex Smith is improving, running back Frank Gore is a force, and—with a division title presumably on the line—the 49ers finish the season with three straight home games and then a trip to Cleveland. I don’t trust the Seahawks and I never will, but I’ll give them 10 wins and a wild card berth. St. Louis seems headed for another 8-8 season—they’re not good enough to challenge for the division, but their offense is too good to lose too many games. And then there are the Cardinals. I was ready to anoint them the surprise team—again. But they lost two different players in the preseason with torn muscles, which you just have to think is a bad sign. They will be good—and soon—but this isn’t the year for any more than 7 wins.
The Playoffs
Week 1: Baltimore (3) beats Pittsburgh (6); Jacksonville (5) beats San Diego (4); Philadelphia (3) beats Seattle (6); Carolina (5) beats San Francisco (4)
Week 2: New England (1) beats Jacksonville (5); Indianapolis (2) beats Baltimore (3); New Orleans (1) beats Carolina (5); Philadelphia (3) beats Chicago (1)
NFC Championship Game: New Orleans over Philadelphia, continuing the remarkable turnaround for the Saints franchise.
AFC Championship Game: New England vs. Indianapolis. Right where we left off in January. In the next edition of this great rivalry, the Patriots get the upper hand and advance to the Super Bowl for the 4th time in 7 years.
Super Bowl XLII: After winning their first three Super Bowls by a combined 9 points, the Patriots win this one by 9 points, 34-25 over New Orleans.
* * * * *
Week 1 Picks
Last year, 7 underdogs won outright in Week 1, and 2 others covered the spread. The year before it was 6 and 1. The trick is finding the right underdogs this early in the season.
INDIANAPOLIS (-6½) over New Orleans BUFFALO (+3) over Denver Kansas City (+3) over HOUSTON JACKSONVILLE (-6½) over Tennessee MINNESOTA (-3) over Atlanta New England (-6½) over NY JETS Philadelphia (-3) over GREEN BAY Pittsburgh (-4½) over CLEVELAND Carolina (+1) over ST. LOUIS WASHINGTON (-3) over Miami Detroit (+1½) over OAKLAND SAN DIEGO (-5½) over Chicago SEATTLE (-6) over Tampa Bay NY Giants (+6) over DALLAS Baltimore (+2½) over CINCINNATI SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Arizona
One of the craziest NFL seasons on record came to a close last weekend in the only way it possibly could—with a crazy finish. A record 20 teams were alive for playoff spots entering the final set of games. And given the unimportance of Home Field Advantage this season, is it any surprise that the Kansas City Chiefs clinched a playoff spot because they won their game while three other teams lost at home?
Home teams finished the season 136-120. The best team in the NFC has a quarterback controversy. While the #2 seed in the NFC won only 10 games and received a bye, two AFC playoff teams with 12 wins have to play in Round 1. The NFC West champion Seattle Seahawks lost three of their last four games. The 8-8 Wild Card Giants lost six of their final eight games.
All these things only scratch the surface of crazy. This season was crazier than the finish of the Fiesta Bowl three nights ago. I have to digress here: has there ever been a sequence of football that included a team getting three shots at a tying two-point conversion; an interception returned for a touchdown on the very next play; a 4th-and-18 completion that turns into a touchdown thanks to the hook-and-ladder; a 25-yard scoring run on the first play of overtime; a scoring answer on 4th-and-2 that’s a direct snap wide receiver pass; a decision to go for 2 points instead of the tie; and the Statue of Liberty play for the win? The answer is no. Oh, and the kid who scored the winning points ran over and proposed to his cheerleader girlfriend after spiking the ball. Seriously, you’re kidding me with all of this, right? My only question is this: who does Boise State play this week?
Back to the NFL craziness. Earlier this year Matt Bryant of Tampa Bay kicked a 62-yard field goal to beat the Eagles. The Chicago Bears and Tennessee Titans each won games in which they scored 3 points on offense but 21 points on defense and/or special teams. One of the top quarterbacks in the league (Donovan McNabb) got injured and his replacement (Jeff Garcia) led them to the division title.
That’s the kind of year it’s been. It didn’t stop there. While the rest of the music industry treats appearances at sporting events as if they were at Uncle Louie’s 80th birthday party, we had a performance for the ages back in September. U2 and Green Day gave a stirring set in front of a sold out Louisiana Superdome crowd prior to the first home game for the Saints since before Hurricane Katrina. The Saints then rode a wave of emotion to a 23-3 win, and ended up the 2nd-best team in the NFC. This from a team that had a rookie head coach and didn’t even have a home field last season.
So with all of this craziness as a prelude, there’s no way the playoffs will be any saner, right? Chargers-Bears sounds like a reasonable Super Bowl pick. But with the way this year went, it’s an impossibility.
I said back in my NFL Preview that “NFL prognosticating is like raising children. We all—parents, experts, and extended family members—think we’re good at it, but does anyone really know what they’re talking about?” Who knew this season would put an exclamation point on that statement? Sports Illustrated’s Super Bowl picks—Miami and Carolina—didn’t even make the playoffs. Yours truly went a career-worst 112-140-4 against the spread. No one could figure out who would win any game or why.
So , why shouldn’t I be the one to restore some sense to things? After all, as bad as my weekly picks were, I still correctly predicted half of the playoff field (and left out Chicago and Seattle out of stubbornness, otherwise it would have nailed 8 out of 12), and not only are both of my Super Bowl picks in the hunt, but all four of my predicted championship teams are in the mix as well.
I’m going to stick with my Super Bowl prediction, but I’m going to predict that my original AFC Championship guess of Baltimore-Indianapolis will meet one round earlier. Why? Because a Jets win over New England would need to happen otherwise. And I just can’t predict that will happen. I just can’t. It’s not that it’s too crazy. It’s just too painful (as a Patriots fan).
Here’s the way I see Round 1 shaping up, along with the rest of the playoffs (including some crazy NFC picks):
Indianapolis 44, Kansas City 31
“You play to win the game!” And hope for three home teams to lose so that you can sneak in. To say the Chiefs are lucky to be here is an understatement. And even though Kansas City can run the ball and cause problems for the Colts’ defense, I see the Colts slowly pulling away in this high-scoring affair.
Dallas 36, Seattle 35
Following the Boise State formula, Terrell Owens throws the final touchdown pass and the Cowboys go for two with Terry Glenn running in the conversion on the Statue of Liberty play. Tony Romo proposes to Carrie Underwood on the sideline.
New England 38, NY Jets 10
I’ve gone back and forth on this game all week. Will it be close? Will it be a blowout? Will the Jets pull the upset? I’ve rewritten this paragraph 15 times. All right. I’m done. I’m not touching it again. It’s the Pats in an unexpected blowout. Vinny Testaverde adds the final touchdown instead of kneeling down, just to rub it in. Bill Belichick bear hugs Eric Mangini after the game. Not that there’s anything wrong with that.
NY Giants 26, Philadelphia 23 (in overtime)
These two teams played the weirdest games of the season with the losing teams snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in both games. The Giants rally from 23 points down thanks to Tiki Barber’s 250 rushing yards and pull off the win in overtime.
Round 2
Over the last 10 years, teams with first round byes are 31-9 in Week 2. So in this crazy season I see three home teams losing this year:
Baltimore beats Indianapolis (Game 2 is always when the Colts lose in the playoffs) New England beats San Diego (Marty-ball chokes up another one) Dallas beats New Orleans (Parcells wins the rematch with his former protégé) NY Giants beat Chicago (there’s no way the Bears are going anywhere this year
Championship Games
That sets up Ravens-Patriots in the AFC and the improbable all-Wild Card match-up of Cowboys-Giants in the NFC. I see Baltimore knocking off New England (even though it pains me to write that) and the Cowboys squeaking past the Giants.
Super Bowl XLI
The only way this crazy season ends is with Terrell Owens and Team Dysfunction hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in Miami. I’ll even stick my original score of Dallas 41, Baltimore 23, simply because it’s the craziest thing possible.
Forget about the bald eagle and the polar bear for a moment. Something is threatening one of the most fundamental creatures in all of sports. Something that’s near and dear to every sports fan’s hearts: Home field advantage.
There was a time when you could go to a game and feel reasonably confident that the hometown club would win. Those days are long over. Take the current state of the NFL, for example. Home teams are a pedestrian 129-111 this season, for a winning percentage of just 53.8%. The eight division leaders have lost a combined 14 home games. As recently as 10 years ago, all of the playoff teams combined (12 at the time) lost just 17 home games.
This past weekend was a prime example of why home field advantage needs to be moved onto the endangered species list. Eleven NFL teams went into the Christmas weekend with the ability to aid their playoff chances with a home win. Those teams went just 3-8. The week before two of this year’s division champs—Seattle and New Orleans—lost at home to teams that won’t be joining them in the playoffs. When San Diego, Baltimore, Indianapolis, and New England take the field this weekend—with potential home playoff games at stake—they may be better off losing.
But this issue is not confined to the NFL. The NBA has a home court problem as well. Currently, home teams in the NBA are winning at a 60% clip, which sounds good when compared to the NFL. But the best home record of any NBA team is 12-2. We’re only 30 games into the season and every single team has lost at home at least twice. In 1985-86, the Celtics lost just one home game all season. When the Bulls won a record 72 games they dropped just two at home. Sure, those were two of the greatest teams in the history of the NBA, but this year’s best team to this point—the Dallas Mavericks—is on pace to lose eight games at home.
And in the NHL…ah, forget it. Wins, losses, overtime losses, shootout losses, wins that are really losses, losses that count as wins—who can figure out the standings in the NHL?
In baseball, the winning percentage of all home teams last season was 54.6%. That translates into an 88-win season, which might not even get you into the playoffs in baseball. What’s even more remarkable is that six of the last nine do-or-die playoff games have been won by the road teams. No wonder home field advantage for the World Series is determined by the All-Star Game. Who really cares where you play? Apparently, no one. Maybe we should change the line in Take Me Out to the Ballgame to: “Root, root, root for the home team, they’ve only got a 50-50 shot at winning the game.”
It should be a rare occasion when the best teams lose at home, should it not? That’s the way it used to be and we liked it. And we’re now conditioned always to expect it.. “It’s tough to beat the Broncos at home,” they say. Really? Is that why they’re 4-3 at home this year? Seattle’s new stadium was specifically designed to be the loudest in the NFL, so that the Seahawks would have a tremendous home field advantage. It’s helped them to a 5-3 record at home this year.
With an incredible 20 teams in the playoff mix entering the final week of the NFL season, it’s tempting to look at which teams are at home this weekend to determine who will win and make the playoffs. But this weekend’s home teams are just 70-42 in front of the local fans. Take out San Diego, Indianapolis, Baltimore, and Chicago—who are 26-2 at home this year—and the remaining 12 hosts are just 44-40 at home. Sounds like those 12 games are closer to toss-ups now, doesn’t it?
Can every professional team make a New Year’s resolution to try harder at home next year? Social change starts in our own backyards, after all. Think globally but act locally.
Picture future generations going to a museum or one of the sports halls of fame. A little child rounds the corner and sees a large still photograph. It depicts hoards of screaming fans with painted faces and signs that read, “Not in our house.” Everyone on the field and in the stands is smiling and hi-fiving.
The young child asks, “Dad, what’s that?”
“Home field advantage,” the father replies. “It doesn’t exist anymore.”
NFL Week 17 Picks
This is it. The last weekend of a crazy NFL season. Between home teams that can't win and underdogs who never lose, I don't know who to pick anymore. I'm taking 7 road teams and 6 underdogs this week.
NY Giants (-2½) over WASHINGTON NEW ORLEANS (+3) over Carolina Cleveland (+4) over HOUSTON DALLAS (-12½) over Detroit Jacksonville (+2½) over KANSAS CITY New England (+3) over TENNESSEE NY JETS (-12½) over Oakland CINCINNATI (-6) over Pittsburgh TAMPA BAY (-3½) over Seattle St. Louis (-2½) over MINNESOTA SAN DIEGO (-13½) over Arizona Atlanta (+9) over PHILADELPHIA BALTIMORE (-9½) over Buffalo Miami (+9) over INDIANAPOLIS DENVER (-10½) over San Francisco CHICAGO (-3) over Green Bay
I’d like to thank the NFL for showing a complete lack of regard for my holiday schedule. I know that this year Christmas Eve is on Sunday and Christmas Day is Monday—the NFL’s two biggest days of the week. But couldn’t they have worked something out? Perhaps play most of the games on Saturday or something? Nobody’s working on Friday, right? How about a bunch of Friday games?
But, no, they’ve got to intrude on my Christmas Eve. Instead of wrapping and decorating, I’m going to have to watch football. No socializing with family and friends. Sorry, everyone—my real friends, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and LaDanian Tomlinson are coming over.
I’m surprised they’re not moving one of the games to Sunday night this week. They could have had a halftime flyover by Santa. They could have even given all the fans candles and sung Silent Night between the 3rd and 4th quarters. Now that would have been festive!I’ll just have to make do I guess. In the spirit of Christmas I’ve wrapped up my picks with cute little bows. Enjoy the holiday…and the football!
Thursday, December 21
Minnesota at Green Bay (8:00 p.m.)
Let’s see, it’s the Thursday before Christmas, 15 people nationwide have NFL Network, and two crappy teams are playing. This one’s going to be a ratings bonanza, isn’t it? (But, I must thank the NFL Network for putting The Rolling Stones’ The Last Time in my head. Instead of wasting all of our time inventing something like the Slingbox, can’t someone invent a device that allows you to prohibit commercials from entering your home once you’ve seen them once or twice?...Please?)
Pick: Green Bay (-3)
Saturday, December 23
Kansas City at Oakland (8:00 p.m.)
The Chiefs. The Raiders. Bitter rivals. A history of bad blood. Talk about a game that embodies the Christmas spirit. How about in every match-up this weekend the players have to exchange presents with the other teams during the coin toss? “Awww, Warren, you got me a Rolex? Thanks.” “You’re welcome, Trent. Now you’ll know it’s time for me to rip your head off.”
Pick: Oakland (+6½)
Sunday, December 24
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Steve McNair got stepped on last week, and the spike went right through his hand. It was pretty gruesome. I think they’re going to incorporate it as a scene in that new horror movie, Black Christmas, opening everywhere Christmas Day. Because that’s what everyone wants to do on Christmas: go see horror movies.
Pick: Pittsburgh (-3½)
Carolina at Atlanta
If the Panthers go 1-1 in their final two games, they will finish 7-9. Exactly as I predicted. At least I’ll get something right from my preseason predictions (I hope).
Pick: Atlanta (+6½)
Chicago at Detroit
Has there ever been a 12-2 team with a quarterback that no one trusts? The big debate with the Bears now that they’ve clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs is whether or not they will rest their starters with two games to go and nothing to play for. I think Lovie Smith intends to rest everyone—except quarterback Rex Grossman. If Grossman can survive (and thrive) with every single backup on the field, then he can start the playoff games.
Pick: Chicago (-4)
Indianapolis at Houston
Five golden rings! Four calling birds, three French hens, two turtle doves, and a patridge in a pear tree! (There. Now that song’s in your head, isn’t it?) What made me think of rings? The Colts’ complete lack of postseason success. Although Adam Vinatieri has 3 rings.
Pick: Houston (+9½)
New England at Jacksonville
“I think the Patriots looked at their schedule and what they had on the roster and they decided that even if they do nothing at all this year, they’ll win the division. So they let everyone (Vinatieri, McGinest, Givens) go and played hardball with Deion Branch. They figure they’ll save the cap space until next year and then reload…Pencil the Patriots in for 11 wins and another AFC East title.” - September 6 (NFL Preview Part 2)
I believed it then and I believe it now. Yet, the Patriots might actually win 12 games. And t
