It’s not easy at the top. Everyone’s gunning for you and can’t wait to see you fail. They say everyone loves a winner. Until you try to keep winning, that is. And then they don’t love you anymore.

Such is the case with the New England Patriots. Derided for years as one of the laughing stocks of the NFL, it all changed in 2002 when they defeated the heavily-favored “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. It was called a fluke at the time and no one believed that the Patriots would be back. But back they came, winning a total of three Super Bowls in four years. Now head coach Bill Belichick is hailed as a genius and quarterback Tom Brady draws comparisons to the legendary Joe Montana.

Somewhere between that first Super Bowl win and this weekend, the Patriots went from lovable success story to a hated, arrogant, lucky team in the eyes of many. The whole postgame episode with LaDanian Tomlinson last week drove the point home: Everyone hates the Patriots.

But this a team that has shown that they excel when everyone is against them. They are two wins away from accomplishing what only one other team has ever accomplished: Winning four Super Bowls in six years. Only the Pittsburgh Steelers of the ‘70s pulled off that trick. I wonder how that team was viewed nationally at the time. Did people get sick of them winning as well?

There’s a strange combination of things that go on with teams that win multiple championships. First, there’s the human nature element of wanting to see other teams win. It gets boring watching the same team win over and over again. (Unless it’s your team.)

Then there’s the compulsion to tear down whoever is on top. Think about it. Michael Jordan took those two years off between sets of three NBA titles. The scuttlebutt is that it was a hush-hush “suspension” for his gambling problem. Is that the truth, or was it just a tale designed to tear down the top dog? This week’s Patriot-bashing makes me ask the same kind of question. Are they truly an arrogant team full of sore winners or is everyone just trying to find fault with the team of the decade?

Here’s the other problem the Patriots face. They have no true rival. In the ‘80s, the Lakers and Celtics had a great rivalry. And since they took turns winning eight titles (five by Boston and three by Los Angeles), there wasn’t a consensus hatred toward either team. But the Patriots are more comparable to Jordan’s Bulls (six titles in the ‘90s with only Jordan’s semi-retirement preventing eight straight). The only teams that have prevented the Patriots from winning the Super Bowl in the last five years are the Jets and the Broncos. The Jets won in New England in the second-to-last game of the 2002 season, keeping the Patriots out of the playoffs that year. Last season, the Broncos handed the Patriots their first (and so far only) playoff loss under Belichick.

But neither the Jets nor the Broncos won the Super Bowl those years. So it’s the Patriots and everyone else. And don’t call Patriots-Colts a rivalry. To have a true rivalry, both teams need to win big games. It’s akin to calling the pre-2004 Red Sox-Yankees skirmishes a rivalry. If the Colts win this weekend, then we’ll talk. But we all know that’s not going to happen. Peyton Manning and the Colts cannot beat the Patriots in the playoffs. We do all know that, right?

And therein lies the other part of the Patriots-bashing. Check out any NFL message board this weekend and you’ll see what I’m talking about. Patriots fans—after years of torture—are reveling in this team’s fortune. And the lack of (or perceived lack of) national acceptance of this team’s greatness brings out the worst in some Patriots fans.

So the Patriots and their fans become Public Enemy #1. The new Yankees. Hated, despised, and rooted against from all four corners of the globe. To my fellow fans I say this: Enjoy the ride. Years from now we’ll look back on this time as one of the greatest runs in sports history. And we won’t be alone. History has a way of magnifying greatness.

In the meantime, just because everyone else on earth will be rooting for the Saints to beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl, don’t worry about spoiling that magical ending. Just enjoy the ride.

*             *             *

Championship Weekend Picks

Last week vs. the spread: 2-2
Playoffs: 6-2

The final three playoff games last weekend were all won by 3 points. If this weekend’s games come anywhere close to matching the fun of those games, then the twelve straight hours spent on the couch will all be worth it. Oh, who am I kidding? Any day spent on the couch watching sports is worth it. Settle in for the final Sunday of wall-to-wall football before Super Bowl XLI.

NFC Championship Game
New Orleans (+2½) over CHICAGO

Let’s start with the JV game. I sat there last week and wondered how a team with a shaky quarterback, an overrated defense, and a lousy coach could advance to the NFC Championship Game. And then I realized that two of them were playing each other, so one of them had to move on. All I want to know is what the Bears’ coaching staff was thinking during the final 2:15 of regulation. The Seahawks had a 4th down coming up with the clock running and the game tied. The Bears were certainly getting the ball back at some point, and they would either be tied or trailing—and yet they let the clock run down to the two-minute warning instead of taking a timeout. Worse, with less than 15 seconds remaining in regulation and the Seahawks once again facing a 4th down, the Bears waited until the clock ran down to 2 seconds to call a timeout. Of course, that left the Seahawks with enough time to do only one thing: Try to run a Hail Mary play. Talk about brilliant clock management and decision-making.

I’m not going with the Saints because of sentimental reasons . I’m going with the Saints because they’re the better team. They have the better quarterback (by far) and the better coach. When you’ve got those two check marks in your favor, you should win the game, no matter whom (or where) you’re playing.

And for those who think the Saints can’t win in the cold confines of Soldier Field, think about this: The Saints won their last three road games, with two of them coming against playoff opponents. Dome teams might be 0-9 in Championship Games outdoors, but that’s not going to matter. I honestly don’t even think this one will be close. Prediction: Saints 34, Bears 20

AFC Championship Game
New England (+3) over INDIANPOLIS

After the Saints are done accepting the trophy in the middle of Soldier Field, it will be time for the match-up of the weekend. Patriots-Colts. I just watched the NFL Network replay of the regular season game these two played. I kept wondering one thing: How on Earth did the Patriots lose this game? Tipped passes, fumbles that went out of bounds, fantastic catches by Colts receivers, and questionable play-calling by the Patriots were the highlights. And the Patriots still had the ball with under two minutes left, down by 7. Their offense is playing at a much higher level now and the defense—which lost Rodney Harrison to injury early in the previous game—has made the adjustments that have made the unit more effective.

Everyone keeps talking about how well the Colts’ defense is playing in the playoffs. But they’ve gone up against a team in the Chiefs that refused to change its play-calling even when running up the middle against a 10-man front wasn’t working, and a team in the Ravens that ran the worst offense in a playoff game I’ve ever seen. What Colts fans should be concerned about is their offense. 23 points against the Chiefs? At home? And no touchdowns against the Ravens last week? It’s not going to get any easier against a defense that just held San Diego—the best offense in the NFL this season—to 21 points.

Last night I watched Super Bowl XXXVI in its entirety (thank you, NFL Network). And I was struck by three things. First, how astoundingly bad the telecast was. Pat Summerall and John Madden were worse than I ever remembered. It felt like a preseason game and they were working out the kinks. It’s hard to believe that was six years ago. If the score weren’t on the screen for the entire game I would have thought it was a game from the ‘80s. Second, U2 is one of the most legendary bands of all time. Other than the Beatles, no other musical group in rock history has grabbed the spotlight so effectively as they did at halftime of that game (when they did a tribute to the victims of 9/11) and during the pregame of the Saints’ opener this year (the first game in New Orleans since Hurricane Katrina). When tragedy hits, bring in U2. They rock the house.

Finally, the third thing that struck me while re-watching Super Bowl XXXVI was the fact that the Patriots beat that year’s best football team by out-coaching, out-scheming, and out-muscling them. The Patriots clearly did not have the better stats (24th in total defense that season) or players. And yet there they were, from the opening play until the final gun, dominating that game.

Brady’s top weapons that day were Troy Brown, David Patten, Jermaine Wiggins, J.R. Redmond, and Antowian Smith. You’re telling me an older, wiser Brady, can’t get it done now when his top weapons are named Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney, Troy Brown, Corey Dillon, and Laurence Maroney? I beg to differ. It’s the 2001 playoffs all over again, as Brady—with the Larry Bird-like quality of making those around him better—wills his team to the Super Bowl. Again. Prediction: Patriots 24, Colts 20

Enjoy the ride.

www.sportsinacan.com

At first glance, the NFL playoffs took on an air of normalcy last weekend. After a crazy season, all four home teams won and advanced. This marked the first time since 2000 that all four home teams won in Round 1 (and just the second time since this playoff format was introduced in 1990). The better teams were playing at home and the better teams won. Not so crazy, right?

I even got my prediction swerve on. I had the Colts by 13, and they won by 15. I had the Patriots by 28, and they won by 21. I covered the spread on the two NFC games, missing out on the actual finishes by the slimmest of margins. I had Cowboys by 1, and they lost by 1; I had the Giants by 3 in overtime, and they lost by 3 on a last second field goal. Considering the year I had picking games, I’m as shocked as you are that I went 4-0 against the spread last week.

Upon closer inspection of the Wild Card weekend games, it’s clear that Crazy was in the house. Perhaps the most normal contest was the Patriots-Jets game. But that was the largest margin of victory in a game involving division opponents since 1992. The previous 24 games between division rivals were all settled by 20 points or less, with 11 of them decided by 10 or fewer points.

The Colts won comfortably—which wasn’t surprising—but the way they won was a shocker. The run defense (infamously awful in the regular season) treated Larry Johnson like Rocky’s punching bag. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis offense was unexpectedly pitiful. Peyton Manning and the offense usually play well in their first playoff game. Not this year. If not for Chiefs’ coach Herm Edwards’ refusal to change his offensive game plan, the Colts might have been knocked out last week.

The Giants and Eagles—NFC East division foes—played a tight contest, as expected. But it was still a strange game. The Giants had 2nd-and-30 late in the 4th quarter and yet scored the tying touchdown three plays later. Two drives before that, the Eagles started on the Giants’ 42 and yet had to punt. But the strangest part of this game was watching the Giants’ most mature leader on the field—Jeremy Shockey—try to take control of the game. There’s nothing stranger than the words “mature” and “leader” being used to describe Shockey. (By the way, can we call the Eli Manning Experience a failure yet? While his contemporaries are excelling, Manning seems to be getting worse. And how did Tom Coughlin keep his job? So many questions. So few answers.)

And then there was the game that everyone’s been talking about. Cowboys-Seahawks. The safety. The bizarre playcalling. The bobbled snap. It was all there for one of the all-time craziest NFL playoff games. One Cowboys fan described it to me this way: “Worst. Way. To. Lose. Ever.” As a lifelong Red Sox fan, I reminded him o####ame from October 1986 that ranks right up there. But I feel his pain. Add this to the list of heartbreakingly awful ways to lose.

I’ve been wracking my brain trying to come up with another sports scenario that would demonstrate how crazy of a way this was to lose. I came up with two from baseball that illustrate the contradiction between the ease of the play itself and the end result of Romo’s miscue. Up by one run, runners on 2nd and 3rd, and there’s an easy popup to the shortstop. The shortstop drops the ball and kicks it. Both runs score and his team loses. Or, same baserunning scenario, and the batter strikes out but the catcher drops the ball. He calmly picks it up, takes a step to his right to throw to first for the final out, and airmails it into right field.

I can’t emphasize enough how easy of a play this should have been. All Romo had to do was put the ball on the ground and the Cowboys would probably have won the game. Romo had already done the hard part—catch the snap. He just needed to place it on the ground, spin it, and put his finger on top of it. Placing it on the ground seems like the easiest part of the whole process, doesn’t it? The only other football play that seems easier than that would be the end of game kneeldown. Now that would be a way to lose. “Romo takes the snap, he takes a knee and the Cowboys-- Wait! He dropped the ball! The Seahawks pick it up and run all the way to the 15, the 10, the 5, touchdown!” Until that happens, Romo’s fumble will forever be the barometer for #### up easy plays that cost the team the game.

So the Cowboys (my preseason Super Bowl pick) lost on one of the craziest plays ever, after a crazy season involving the craziest player in the NFL I didn’t really believe the Cowboys could go all the way at this point, but I stuck with my Super Bowl pick anyway. Sure, it sounded crazy, but crazy is as crazy does. I’m not even picking another NFC team to take their place at this point. The Ravens are my Super Bowl favorites now. And I don’t see any NFC team knocking off any of the potential AFC participants.

Meanwhile, we’ve got three superb games on tap for the weekend. The four best teams in the NFL go head-to-head (Chargers-Patriots and Ravens-Colts), and the two hottest teams in the NFC square off (Saints-Eagles). If there were ever a weekend to lock yourself indoors and watch 40 hours of football games, pregame shows, and highlights, this is the one. Of course, there’s still that other game (Bears-Seahawks). If you haven’t put the Christmas decorations away yet, or you want to go outside and enjoy the global warming, then I’d skip that one.

I’m trying not to let my 4-0 playoff record against the spread go to my head. I’m taking this one game at a time, playing within myself, giving 110%. I’ve broken down the game film, researched the stats, and am ready to make picks. I’ve had a good week of preparation, and am feeling good about the picks. Here’s the way I see this weekend’s games:

BALTIMORE (-4) over Indianapolis

I’m predicting the same score I did in my NFL Preview (when I had these two teams playing next week instead of this week). That was when I clued the world in on the fact that the Ravens would be the team to beat this year: “Defense is where this division will be won…Baltimore’s going to put it together this year, beat Pittsburgh twice, win the division, and keep the Steelers from the playoffs.” Check and check. I picture this one a 3-3 tie at the half, with Manning slowly getting more and more frustrated. Three Colts turnovers (and 0 by the Ravens) translate into a healthy win by the Ravens. As a matter of fact, this is my lock of the week.
Prediction: Ravens 27, Colts 10

NEW ORLEANS (-5) over Philadelphia

The two best teams in the NFC go head-to-head. The winner should be heading to the Super Bowl. This is the one I’ve been struggling with all week. The Eagles are a brand new team since McNabb went down. Head coach Andy Reid decided to have a more balanced offense instead of passing on two out of every three downs, probably because he was afraid of letting Jeff Garcia fling the ball around. So what happens? Garcia throws just 2 interceptions in seven games and Brian Westbrook turns into a verifiable rushing force. Meanwhile, NFL coach of the year Sean Payton has molded his Saints into a dangerous team. Plus they’ve had the bye to prepare for this one. This game’s going to be tight, with the Saints scoring a late touchdown and then stopping the Eagles on the final play of the game.
Prediction: Saints 31, Eagles 24

Seattle (+8½) over CHICAGO

One of these teams actually gets to play in the NFC Championship Game. Unbelievable. I was going to give this one the 12-9 final score treatment until I looked up my prediction for last year’s Bears playoff game and saw that I predicted 12-9 in that one (a 29-21 Carolina win). Let’s go back in time and read what I wrote before that game: “This is my hands-down, no-doubt-about-it, can’t-miss, money-in-the-bank, no-questions-asked lock of the week. The Panthers, having played the Bears once already this season, will not be surprised at the speed of the Bears’ linebackers. Chicago won’t end up with 8 sacks on Jake Delhomme as they did in the first meeting.” The Bears registered just one sack in that game. It’s still the same deal. Teams playing the Bears twice this year either did better (the Lions lost by 5 and the Packers won in their second meetings) or not much worse (the Vikings lost by 10 after losing the first game by 3). And all I have to say about Rex Grossman is this(from my recap of last year’s Bears’ playoff loss): “Did anyone outside of Chicago believe that Grossman was going to lead the Bears on a game-tying drive on either of the Bears’ last two possessions? For that matter, did anyone in Chicago believe it? Or anyone on the field?” The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Prediction: Seahawks 23, Bears 18

New England (+4½) over SAN DIEGO

Why do I feel so good about this pick? Is it Marty Schottenheimer’s dismal playoff record? Bill Belichick and Tom Brady’s amazing playoff success? This one could be an old-fashioned shootout, and the game of the weekend. LaDanian Tomlinson will get his yards. The Patriots will move the ball as well, thanks to their two-headed rushing attack. San Diego’s red zone offense against the Patriots’ red zone defense. Lots of scoring. Last team with the ball wins. And tell me—who would you trust more at the end of this game? Philip Rivers and Schottenheimer or Brady and Belichick? My money’s on New England.
Prediction: Patriots 34, Chargers 31

www.sportsinacan.com

Throwing Out More Thoughts on Sports, Life, and Whatnot

I don’t know what kind of magical substance they made the new NBA ball out of, but I can’t believe that commissioner David Stern is giving in and going back to the old one—even though he attributes the league-wide rise in scoring to the new ball. More games such as the Suns-Nets 161-157 double overtime thriller might get me to start watching again.

Do you realize that there have only been five overtime games in the NFL this season? And three of them came way back in Week 2. Last season there were four overtime games in Week 12 alone. Guess this isn’t the time to bring up the fact that the NFL’s overtime rules are ridiculous, huh?

If I hear John Mellencamp’s This is Our Country one more time I might just go off the deep end. Same goes for the beginning of Iron Man.

Can everyone please stop comparing the 2006 Bears to the 2000 Ravens? Whenever a team has a very good defense and a very bad offense, people instantly make the connection. But they’re missing the point. The 2000 Ravens had a bad offense, but they took care of the ball. Punting was always a way of getting the defense back on the field with lots of room to work. This Bears offense often puts their defense in a bad position, which is why the comparison is not valid. Think about it this way: in 13 games in 2000 (including the playoffs), Trent Dilfer threw 12 interceptions and lost 2 fumbles (14 turnovers). Through 13 games this year Rex Grossman has thrown 17 interceptions and lost 4 fumbles (21 turnovers). Plus Dilfer got better at taking care of the ball as the season progressed. Grossman’s gotten worse. Not exactly a recipe for success.

The Missus and I experienced Hi Definition in our home for the first time over the weekend. First and foremost, I may never leave the house again. It’s remarkable how much different the picture is. But I have to ask the NFL: What’s the deal with allowing some games to be shown in low def still? Plus it’s not just games such as Raiders-Cardinals that get the low def treatment. Jaguars-Colts was in low def last weekend. You’re telling me this billion dollar conglomerate can’t spend a few more pennies each week and put all the games on in HD?

In the past three years, Red Sox fans have watched the surreal become the norm: The general manager spends Thanksgiving dinner with one of Curt Schilling—one of the best (and most sought after) pitchers in baseball—and convinces him to come to Boston; down three games to none to the hated Yankees, the Red Sox pull off the greatest comeback in sports history—a comeback sparked incredibly by a stolen base (something the Red Sox are not known for), Schilling’s surgically mended ankle, and the efforts of Derek Lowe, the flakiest pitcher on the team; the Red Sox won the World Series; and back-up catcher Doug Mirabelli—apparently the only man on the planet capable of catching Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball—gets a police escort to the game after getting traded back to Boston. Add yesterday’s Matsuzaka watch—complete with a Web link that tracked his flight to Massachusetts and fans lining up at the airport with pre-printed “Dice K”—signs to the list.

Allen Iverson—one of the best players in the NBA—could get traded to the Boston Celtics as early as tomorrow. And yet not one person in Boston cares, not only because of the Matsuzaka deal, but because the Celtics have almost slipped behind the Bruins in terms of interest.

Back in college, my roommate Jake and I got so good at Nintendo’s Tecmo Super Bowl that we needed a challenge. So we’d use the ’90 Giants for a season but never play on offense. We’d punt every single time and try and win with just kick returns and defense. We’d end up with 10 to 12 wins and then invariably lose in the playoffs. Sound familiar? We basically invented the 2006 Bears.

I don’t care what anyone says. If the Red Sox’ deal for Daisuke Matsuzaka fell through, he would have ended up with the Yankees somehow.

I couldn’t have been more thrilled to see LaDanian Tomlinson break Shaun Alexander’s one-year-old record of 28 touchdowns in a season. I haven’t liked Alexander since he caused a scene on the sidelines after he missed out on the rushing title by one yard two years ago. And I still say that Tiki Barber should have won the MVP over Alexander last year. Besides all that, is there a better, more likable guy in the NFL right now that Tomlinson? He’s the kind of guy you want to use to promote your league. Plus he might just go down as the best running back to ever play the game. And think about this: He has three more games to add to his season touchdown total. 32 touchdowns—an average of two per game—is not out of the question. Plus he’s thrown for two touchdowns. Simply incredible.

Having finally dug out from the 100 hours of television I had TiVo’d. I’ve decided that this whole “Fall season” thing works for me. New shows almost every single week through the beginning of December and then everyone takes a month or two off. I’m down. I got my fill of new shows, and had time to catch up on everything. Of course, I’ll be itching for some new stuff in a couple of weeks.

Back to HD for a moment. When it was finally hooked up and ready to go, my first foray into HD was a program on the Discovery Channel about F-18s landing on air craft carriers. This is the kind of thing that needs to be on 24/7, just on the off chance that someone just got HD for the first time.

Before everyone hands the Lombardi trophy over to the Chargers, let’s remember that last year at this time the Colts were 13-0 and we tried to anoint them as champions. You remember how that turned out, right? The year before that the Steelers were 12-1 right now. Again, no championship. You don’t win the title in Week 15. Just keep that in mind.

Memo to fellow Red Sox fans: We can never complain about the Yankees and their free-spending ways again. In the last week alone, the team has spent $209 million. On three players!

There are 10 more shopping days until Christmas. Or, only a couple if you plan on doing all of your shopping online. That’s what I’m doing.

NFL Week 15 Picks 

Wow. Not even picking opposites helped last week. Plus I jinxed myself talking about my Monday Night success. Let's try actually trying again this week. (Picks updated on Saturday, because I posted the wrong ones. I'm already 0-1 this week thanks to Seattle laying an egg. I said a few weeks ago that the Seahawks were destined to not make the playoffs. I still might be right on that one.)

SEATTLE (-9½) over San Francisco
Dallas (-3½) over ATLANTA
BALTIMORE (-11) over Cleveland
GREEN BAY (-5) over Detroit
NEW ENGLAND (-11½) over Houston
TENNESSEE (+3½) over Jacksonville
Miami (+1) over BUFFALO
NY Jets (+3) over MINNESOTA
Pittsburgh (-2½) over CAROLINA
CHICAGO (-13½) over Tampa Bay
NEW ORLEANS (-9½) over Washington
ARIZONA (+3) over Denver
Philadelphia (+5½) over NY GIANTS
St. Louis (+2½) over OAKLAND
SAN DIEGO (-9) over Kansas City
Cincinnati (+3) over INDIANAPOLIS

Last week:  4-12
Season: 88-116-4 

www.sportsinacan.com