Why do we like to make predictions? Everyone does it. And usually no one’s good at it. Sure, we have our moments. Like last year I correctly predicted that San Diego would win 11 games, Seattle would win 10, Tampa Bay would win 9, Buffalo would win 7, and the Patriots would advance to the Super Bowl. Of course I also predicted Green Bay would win 6 (they won 13), Baltimore would win 12 (they won 5), and the Pats would win the Super Bowl, beating New Orleans (who missed the playoffs at 7-9).
But we’ll give it another go this year. As I look ahead to this NFL season, I’ve decided that there are only five types of NFL teams as we head into each season: The Super Bowl Contenders, the Tragically Flawed Teams, the Teams on the Rise, the Teams on the Decline, and the Teams Already on the Clock (for a top 5 draft pick in 2009).
Let’s take a look at each category:
Teams Already on the Clock (for a top 5 draft pick in 2009)
Atlanta Rookie Matt Ryan will be the starting quarterback for the Falcons from day 1. Do I have to say any more?
Oakland The more things change in Oak-town, the more they stay the same. With glaring needs up and down the roster, the Raiders—who had the 6th-best rushing attack in football last season—selected a running back as their first draft pick. They might challenge once again for the league rushing title, but not much else will improve this year.
Kansas City Can two of the worst teams in the league really reside in the same division? Yes, they can. The Raiders-Chiefs match-up on November 30 might be for next year’s #1 draft pick.
Chicago Back in college my buddies and I got so good at Nintendo’s Tecmo Super Bowl—the last great pre-Madden video game—that we needed to challenge ourselves when playing the game. The game was based on the 1990 season, and the New York Giants were so good you could practically win with your eyes closed. So we’d use the Giants and try to win with just their defense, punting every time we were on offense. You could customarily win 10 games this way. This scenario is very much like the 2008 Chicago Bears—except for the 10 wins part. The Bears have a “revamped” offense that will consist of quarterback Kyle Orton (who threw 80 passes last year), rookie running back Matt Forte, and the untested Devin Hester at wide receiver. And, unfortunately for the Bears, the defense does not resemble the Tecmo Super Bowl Giants.
Cincinnati The inmates are running the asylum. When wide receiver Chris Henry was re-signed following the record-breaking 1,000th Bengals arrest in 1,000 days, it was just another signal that the Bengals still have no direction. Then wide receiver Chad Johnson officially changed his name to Chad Ocho Cinco, so that he could put that on the back of his jersey and not get fined. Things are going really well in Cincinnati.
Teams on the Decline
Baltimore After the Ravens won just 5 games last year, the former genius named Brian Billick was politely asked to leave and join the Coors Light cast of former coaches. Things weren’t looking up in Baltimore even they lost Kyle Boller for the season.
Denver The bloom might finally be off the rose of another genius: Mike Shanahan.
Buffalo I don’t like what I see in Buffalo. They’re focusing on the defense, but—like the Bears—their offense is so bad it just won’t matter. Last year the Bills’ offense was 30th in the league and their defense was 31st. Even if they improve one of those numbers a little it doesn’t move them up the win chart very far. I’m still trying to figure out how they won 7 games last year.
Washington Maybe it’s the yellow shoes. Or the way they got manhandled by the Giants. Or the way Jim Zorn slept-walk through coaching his first NFL game on Thursday. Or the fact that quarterback Jason Campbell is working under his 100th different offensive system since pee wee football. One of these reasons explains why the Redskins will not be good this year.
Tennessee I’m not buying what Tennessee is selling. The defense is good, the rushing offense is good, but Vince Young scares me and the Colts and Jaguars are far superior to the Titans.
Detroit Jon Kitna is still the quarterback, they have rookies all over the place, and it will be at least one more year before Detroit can turn things around.
Seattle I feel the same way about the Seahawks that I felt about the Bears last season. Everyone looked at the Bears and said, “Well, they’ve done it the last two seasons and no one else in their division is ready to step up.” I bought into the hype and penciled the Bears in for 12 wins. So what happened? The Bears went 7-9 and Green Bay stepped up and won the division. I don’t have a good feeling about the Seahawks this year, so I’m going with that feeling this time.
Green Bay They drove an icon out of town. A bad start is going to mean boos raining down on head coach Mike McCarthy’s and quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ heads. Can this team weather the kind of firestorm that developed in the offseason?
Teams on the Rise
Miami With just one win last season, the Dolphins have to be on the rise, don’t they? With Bill Parcells at the helm, the Fish are moving in the right direction, and Chad Pennington has to be worth a win or two.
Houston The Texans won a franchise-best 8 games last year, and head coach Gary Kubiak has them headed in the right direction. They might not be ready to challenge Indianapolis and Jacksonville for the top of their division, but they might challenge Tennessee for 3rd place and could even end up with their first-ever winning season.
Carolina Quarterback Jake Delhomme is healthy and head coach John Fox customarily gets more out of his teams than many other head coaches. The Panthers turn things around this year and challenge the Saints for South supremacy.
Arizona San Francisco St. Louis One of these three teams has to rise up and challenge Seattle. Right? The Seahawks have won their division four years in a row. During that stretch only New England and Indianapolis have won their divisions every year. The Seahawks? Enough is enough. All I have to say is [using Chris Berman’s voice], “Come on Arizona, San Francisco, and St. Louis!”
Tragically Flawed
NY Jets The good news for the Jets is that they picked up Brett Favre. The bad news for the Jets is that they picked up Brett Favre. Even during Green Bay’s magical run last year, you just had that feeling that the bad Brett Favre was itching to bubble to the top. And then, in overtime of the NFC title game, there it was—the fateful interception we’d all been waiting for. Favre will be worth an extra regular season win or two (plus all of the moves the Jets made in the offseason will net another win or two) but somewhere along the line, the gunslinging Favre will end the Jets’ season early.
Tampa Bay Super Bowl XLIII will be played in Raymond James Stadium, home of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. No team has ever advanced to a Super Bowl played in their home stadium.
New Orleans I like the Saints. I really do. And I thought they were making all the right moves this offseason. Until they picked up Jeremy Shockey. Shockey is a quality player and brings a unique toughness to the tight end position. But not the clubhouse kind of guy that brings a team together. You want some evidence? Try last year’s Giants—who went on a run that culminated in a Super Bowl championship. After Shockey got hurt. I’m just saying.
San Diego By all accounts Chargers head coach Norv Turner is a nice guy and a decent coach. But how many decent coaches win the Super Bowl? You have to go back to the ’95 Cowboys with Barry Switzer before you find a Super Bowl-winning coach that could be described by words less exemplary than “really good.” And as for nice guys winning it all, consider this: The last eight Super Bowls were won by guys named Tom Coughlin, Tony Dungy, Bill Cowher, Bill Belichick, Jon Gruden, and Brian Billick. Or—putting it another way—Tony Dungy and five guys I wouldn’t want as my best friend. As my head coach? Definitely. You want some combination of smart, fiery, win-at-all-costs, and single-minded about football—but not nice or decent.
Dallas Something’s wrong in Big D. How else to explain their inexplicable loss by one point two seasons ago on a botched extra point attempt? Or last year’s collapse to the division-rival G-Men? I can’t put my finger on it, but something in this team’s makeup is not working. And it isn’t just the insane social experiment they are trying with the likes of Terrell Owens, Pacman Jones, and Tank Johnson. Something is off in Dallas. They might win their first playoff game in 12 years, but win the whole thing? I just can’t see it happening.
Super Bowl Contenders
By my count there are eight teams with a legitimate chance to win the Super Bowl this year.
Cleveland Cleveland? Yes, Cleveland. Think about this: The last eight Super Bowl Champions have either been defense-only squads, teams with a solid defense that complimented their offense, or teams that got hot defensively at the right time (including the ’06 Colts who allowed 31 points in three of their playoff games, and held the Patriots to two field goals in the pivotal 4th quarter of the AFC Championship Game). Defense wins championships and defensive-minded coaches—like Romeo Crennel, the architect of the Patriots’ defense during their three Super Bowl wins—is a defensive guy. Plus Cleveland is mortgaging the future to win now.
NY Giants Could the Giants possibly do it again? This team is built on solid defense, an impressive running game, and Coughlin’s coaching. If Eli Manning can remain the playoff quarterback we saw last year—who knows? If the Giants make the playoffs again, no one’s going to want them on their schedule.
Pittsburgh I love Mike Tomlin. Ben Roethlisberger is putting it all together (and is healthy). And the Steelers are yet another defense-first type team. They went 10-6 last year and have (on paper) the toughest schedule this year, with eight games against 2007 playoff teams. I could see the Steelers just barely making the playoffs but then putting together a playoff similar to the one they put together three years ago or the Giants did last year.
Indianapolis Remember how the Colts won Super Bowl XLI (see the Cleveland entry above)? Solid coaching, Hall of fame quarterback, and a defense that finally put it together. Last year the Colts had the 3rd-best defense in football. All the ingredients are there for the Colts.
Philadelphia When Donovan McNabb is healthy, the Eagles soar. (Wow. Bad pun.) They have a solid running game and are stout defensively. They went 8-8 in a division that produced three playoff teams last year. This team is primed for another run at the title.
Jacksonville As a Patriots fan, if there’s one team in the AFC that scares me to death it’s the Jaguars. David Garrard is a question mark, but this Florida team is built to play in cold weather games, as evidenced by their 2nd-best rushing attack last year and playoff win in Pittsburgh. Their two nemeses are the Colts (they’ve lost 5 out of their last 6 games against Indianapolis) and the Patriots (their last two playoff runs ended at the hands of New England). The Jaguars are going to be a dangerous team once again this year, and the Colts and the Patriots are in their cross-hairs.
Minnesota Everyone’s high on the Vikings, and with good reason. The team finished with the best rushing attack and the best rushing defense in the NFL, then made huge moves in the offseason to add Jared Allen (15½ sacks, most in the NFL last year), wide receiver Bernard Berrian (951 yards receiving), and free safety Madieu Williams. Tarvaris Jackson is a question mark at quarterback, but if all-world running back Adrian Peterson continues to make Jackson’s life easier and the defense plays the way they are expected to, it’s going to be a huge year in Minnesota.
New England The United States Olympic basketball team received the name “Redeem Team,” so the Patriots will need another moniker. Only in the NFL can a team lose just one game over the course of six months and walk away unfulfilled. But that’s where the Patriots stand as they enter the 2008 season. The first undefeated season since 1972 is a long way in the rearview mirror after their stunning loss to the Giants in the Super Bowl. The Patriots are the odds on favorites to win the Super Bowl and have to be wiser than they were last year. Following the Spygate scandal in Week 1 last year, the goal was to win—and win big. This year the goal will be to win as many as they can, but to enter the playoffs prepared, healthy, and on a roll. They have the team and the coaching staff to do it.
Predicted Finish
AFC EastAFC NorthAFC SouthAFC West
New England 14-2
Cleveland 10-6
Indianapolis 11-5
San Diego 12-4
NY Jets 10-6
Pittsburgh 10-6
Jacksonville 11-5
Denver 6-10
Buffalo 6-10
Baltimore 5-11
Houston 9-7
Oakland 4-12
Miami 5-11
Cincinnati 5-11
Tennessee 7-9
Kansas City 2-14
NFC EastNFC NorthNFC SouthNFC West
Dallas 12-4
Minnesota 12-4
New Orleans 10-6
Arizona 10-6
Philadelphia 11-5
Green Bay 9-7
Carolina 9-7
St. Louis 8-8
NY Giants 10-6
Detroit 6-10
Tampa Bay 7-9
Seattle 7-9
Washington 6-10
Chicago 5-11
Atlanta 1-15
San Francisco 6-10
AFC Championship Game
New England over Jacksonville
NFC Championship Game
Minnesota over Philadelphia
Super Bowl XLIII
New England over Minnesota
NFL Week 1 Picks
Cincinnati (-1½) over BALTIMORE
Detroit (-3) over ATLANTA
PITTSBURGH (-6½) over Houston
TENNESSEE (+3) over Jacksonville
NEW ENGLAND (-15½) over Kansas City
NY Jets (-3) over MIAMI
BUFFALO (-1) over Seattle
PHILADELPHIA (-7½) over St. Louis
NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Tampa Bay
Arizona (-2½) over SAN FRANCISCO
Carolina (+9) over SAN DIEGO
CLEVELAND (+5½) over Dallas
INDIANAPOLIS (-9½) over Chicago
Minnesota (+2½) over GREEN BAY
The passage of time in the NFL is marked by decades and the teams that tower over the rest of the field. Various teams win titles throughout each decade, but one team always wins the most championships and stands out as the Team of the Decade.
This is the way it’s been ever since the Green Bay Packers rolled to five NFL titles (including wins in the first two Super Bowls) in the 1960s. The Pittsburgh Steelers won four Super Bowls in the ‘70s, the San Francisco 49ers won four Super Bowls in the ‘80s, and the Dallas Cowboys won three Super Bowls in the ‘90s.
With three Super Bowls remaining in this decade (the ‘00s?), the Patriots are poised to claim the latest Team of the Decade designation. If they win this Sunday they will have four Super Bowl titles this decade. The most Super Bowl wins any other team has is one. Even if they were to somehow lose this weekend, only the Colts or Steelers would have a chance of matching their three titles and possessing a decade-long cache of winning. (Sorry, but even if the Ravens or Buccaneers win the next two Super Bowls, or the Giants win the next three, none of them could possibly be considered Team of the Decade.)
That means there’s even more pressure on the Patriots this Sunday. A win gives them the Super Bowl title, the first 19-0 season in NFL history, and Team of the Decade status.
Let’s take a look at the curriculum vitae for each Team of the Decade.
Green Bay Packers (1960s)
From 1960 through 1969, the Green Bay Packers were the class of the NFL. They had just one losing season (1968, the year after head coach Vince Lombardi stepped down) and won their division six times. The Packers won five of the six NFL Championship Games they played, and won the first two Super Bowls in NFL history. The Packers defined what the NFL was all about during the early years.
Best team of the decade: 1962. The ’62 Packers went 13-1, led the league in both offense and defense, outscored their opponents 415-148, and won the NFL Championship on the road, defeating the New York Giants 16-7.
Worst loss of the decade: The 1960 NFL Championship Game. Taking a 13-10 in the 4th quarter, the Eagles returned the ensuing kickoff 58 yards and eventually took a 17-13 lead. The Packers were stopped on the 8-yard line as time expired. The loss was their first (and only) postseason loss under Lombardi.
Defining games of the decade: Super Bowl I (a 35-10 thrashing of the upstart AFL Kansas City Chiefs) and the 1967 NFL Championship Game (the “Ice Bowl,” a 21-17 win over the Dallas Cowboys in sub-zero weather).
If not for the Packers, the Team of the Decade might have been: The Cleveland Browns. The Browns won five division titles in the ‘60s and took home the 1964 NFL Championship. They lost the 1965 Championship to Green Bay and did not return to the big game for the rest of the decade.
Pittsburgh Steelers (1970s)
Head coach Chuck Noll turned the Steelers from a 1-13 team in 1969 into the best team of the ‘70s. They had just two losing seasons (1970 and 1971), won their division eight years in a row, won four of the six AFC Championship Games they played, and won four Super Bowls. The Steel Curtain defense remains one of the iconic symbols of the NFL.
Best team of the decade: 1978. The ’78 Steelers went 14-2, led the league in defense, and had the 5th best offense. They won their first two playoff games by a combined score of 67-15 before defeating the Dallas Cowboys 35-31 in the Super Bowl.
Worst loss of the decade: The 1976 AFC Championship Game. Many people believe that Pittsburgh’s best team of the ‘70s was the ’76 edition. For the third straight year they played the Oakland Raiders in the Championship game, but with running backs Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier (who had combined for over 2,000 yards in the regular season) both out with injuries, the Raiders won 24-7 to advance to the Super Bowl.
Defining games of the decade: 1972 playoff victory over Oakland (that game that featured the “Immaculate Reception”) and Super Bowl XIII (their 35-31 win over Dallas is considered by many to be the best Super Bowl game of all time).
If not for the Steelers, the Team of the Decade might have been: The Oakland Raiders. The Raiders had 10 straight winning seasons under head coach John Madden in the ‘70s, but had just one Super Bowl win to show for their efforts. The Raiders lost playoff games to the Steelers three times in the ‘70s, with the Steelers winning Super Bowl titles twice after knocking off the Raiders in the AFC Championship game.
San Francisco 49ers (1980s)
Bill Walsh took over a 2-14 team in 1978 and turned the 49ers into one of the league’s most respected and envied franchises. The 49ers had just two losing seasons (1980 and 1982), won their division seven times, made the playoffs eight times, won four of the five NFC Championship Games they played, and won four Super Bowls. At the end of their run, Bill Walsh, quarterback Joe Montana, and wide receiver Jerry Rice were all considered with the best that ever coached and played the game.
Best team of the decade: 1984. The ’84 San Francisco 49ers went 15-1 with the league’s best defense and 2nd-best offense (second only to Dan Marino’s record-setting Dolphins). They won their first two playoff games by a combined score of 44-10 before defeating Marino’s Dolphins 38-16 in the Super Bowl.
Worst loss of the decade: The 1983 NFC Championship Game. Although the 49ers only went 10-6 in 1983, they were one win away from the Super Bowl when they traveled to Washington to take on the Redskins. Trailing 21-0 in the 4th quarter, the 49ers scored three quick touchdowns and tied the game 21-21 with less than seven minutes to play. But the Redskins—aided by a controversial pass interference call—marched 78 yards to set up kicker Mark Moseley for a 25-yard game-winning field goal. Moseley—who had missed four field goals throughout the game—nailed this one and sent the Redskins to the Super Bowl.
Defining games of the decade: The 1982 NFC Championship Game (the game that featured “The Catch”) and Super Bowl XXIII (Montana leads a 92-yard touchdown drive with 3:10 to go in the game).
If not for the 49ers, the Team of the Decade might have been: The Chicago Bears. The Bears won one Super Bowl in the ‘80s but lost to the 49ers twice in the NFC Championship Game (including once at home). The 49ers won the Super Bowl both times.
Dallas Cowboys (1990s)
The once-proud Cowboys were 3-13 during legendary head coach Tom Landry’s final season and fell to 1-15 in Jimmie Johnson’s first season. But three different head coaches—Johnson, Barry Switzer, and Chan Gailey—would lead the Cowboys to winning seasons in all but three years (1990, 1997, and 1999), six division titles, eight playoff appearances, three wins in four NFC Championship Games, and three Super Bowl titles.
Best team of the decade: 1992. The Cowboys went 13-3 and finished with the 2nd best offense and 5th best defense in the league. They won the NFC Championship Game in San Francisco and dismantled the Buffalo Bills 52-17 in the Super Bowl.
Worst loss of the decade: The 1994 NFC Championship Game. The Cowboys played the 49ers in the Championship Game for the 3rd straight year, and quarterback Troy Aikman entered the game undefeated in the playoffs (7-0). Aikman’s first interception of the game was returned for a touchdown. Wide receiver Cowboys wide receiver Michael Irvin lost a fumble on the next Dallas possession and kick returner Kevin Williams fumbled a kickoff, allowing San Francisco to take a 21-0 1st quarter lead, on their way to a 38-28 victory.
Defining games of the decade: The 1992 NFC Championship Game (Dallas won the game in San Francisco to advance to the franchise’s first Super Bowl in 14 years) and the 1995 NFC Championship Game (one year after losing to the 49ers in the penultimate game, the Cowboys withstood Brett Favre and the surging Packers 38-27 to advance to their third Super Bowl of the decade).
If not for the Cowboys, the Team of the Decade might have been: The San Francisco 49ers. With one Super Bowl and two NFC Championship Game losses to the Cowboys, the team of the ‘90s could have been the same as the team of the ‘80s if not for Dallas.
New England Patriots (2000s)
The New England Patriots have seven straight winning seasons, six division titles, six playoff appearances, four wins in five AFC Championship Games, and three Super Bowl titles. They also own the first undefeated season in 35 years and head to the Super Bowl this week in search of their fourth title of the decade.
Best team of the decade: 2007. The Patriots went 16-0 this season and are in the discussion as one of the greatest teams in NFL history.
Worst loss of the decade: The 2006 AFC Championship Game. The Patriots led the Indianapolis Colts 21-6 at halftime but the Colts scored 32 second half points on the way to a 38-34 win.
Defining games of the decade: The 2001 Divisional Playoff (“The Snow Game” or “The Tuck Rule Game”) and Super Bowl XXXVI (one of the greatest upsets in Super Bowl history).
If not for the Patriots, the Team of the Decade might have been: Either the Indianapolis Colts or the Pittsburgh Steelers. Both have one Super Bowl title and two playoff losses to the Patriots.
3rd-6, PIT26 2:56 B. Roethlisberger rushed to the left for 1 yard gain
One play shouldn’t define a game or a season, but more often than not one play from a playoff game stands out. Last week it was Ben Roethlisberger’s failed 3rd-and-6 bootleg. The Steelers punted, the Jaguars drove to the 7-yard line, kicked a field goal, and won the game.
That one play stands out more than any other play in the game. More than David Garrard’s 4th down run that kept the Jaguars’ drive alive. More than the Steelers’ failed two-point conversion attempt from the 12-yard line.
Why the 3rd down run by Roethlisberger? Because it showed such a clear misunderstanding of what was needed.
Let’s start with the first 2-point try. The Steelers had just scored to cut the lead to 28-23 with 14 minutes left in the game. Sure, 14 minutes is a lot of time, but two drives earlier the Jaguars had held the ball for almost five minutes and scored a touchdown. Time was indeed running out on the Steelers, and two points was going to get them within a field goal (instead of a touchdown) and increase their chances of winning the game. Even after a (phantom) holding penalty pushed the Steelers back to the 12-yard line, I have no issues with the Steelers going for two there. It showed that they were willing to do whatever they needed to do to win the game.
On the other hand, a Roethlisberger designed rollout/run on 3rd-and-6? That has “I’m so afraid of a turnover that I don’t even want my quarterback to attempt to give the ball to anyone else on the team for fear that something bad will happen” written all over it. That’s the mentality that losing teams have, not a team with a chance to win a playoff game.
That 3rd down play was the culmination o####ame in which the only times the Steelers scored were when they played aggressively. The Steelers opened the game with six straight pass plays (and ended up scoring a touchdown), and Roethlisberger threw on seven consecutive downs at one point in the game. Granted he had three interceptions in the 1st half. But when the chips were down and they needed yards, Big Ben gave them yards.
To take the lead and then go ultra-conservative was inviting trouble. And trouble came a-knocking in the form of David Garrad’s 4th down scramble. That was a designed run out of the shotgun by a guy that can run, and was coach Jack Del Rio’s way of saying, “we are not losing this game.”
A lesson Steelers’ head coach Mike Tomlin needs to learn. NFL Playoffs Round 2 Selections
It was a 2-2 week against the spread last week (and an abysmal 1-3 straight up). Two underdogs covered, as I predicted. Just not the ones I picked. (The story of my season this year.)
As we head into Round 2, you’ll hear a lot of people talking about how the top four teams rarely all make it to the Championship round. But it has happened twice in the last four years, and it seems likely to happen again this year.
Forget the fact that the four teams with byes are clearly the four best teams in the NFL and they’ve all had a week off to prepare. Just look at the eight teams that played last week for a moment. The Steelers blew their game at home but the team that beat them tried to give the game away in the 4th quarter, allowing 19 points in 8 minutes and 32 seconds. The Titans’ game plan was apparently to try and lull the Chargers to sleep, which almost worked, except for the Chargers’ game plan of doing their best Marty Schottenheimer impression until the 2nd half. (Which reminds me: Everyone who says that this season was more successful under Norv Turner than last season under Schottenheimer just because the Chargers won a playoff game is delusional. The Chargers went 14-2 last year and had a bye in the first round. Basically, this season as of right now is still not better than last year because San Diego must go on the road for their next playoff game. If the Chargers pull off the upset this week in Indianapolis, then we can talk.)
The Redskins played their sixth straight game on pure emotion while the Seahawks played some of the worst football known to man for 52 minutes and then played well for a grand total of 5 minutes, enough time to score 22 fourth quarter points, with 14 coming on interception returns for touchdowns. And Tampa Bay spent three weeks resting players and preparing for the Giants and then came out with the worst game plan in history, while the Giants’ game plan was to keep Eli Manning on a tight leash (20-27, 185 yards) and hope the defense (1 sack, 3 turnovers) could win the game.
My point? Could any one of those eight teams have beaten any of the four teams on a bye? I say no. I think all four home teams win this weekend, with only the Giants coming close and covering the spread.
Green Bay (-7½) over Seattle A rematch of the fantastic 2004 playoff game in which Matt Hasselbeck declared—after the Seahawks won the coin toss in over time—“we’ll take the ball and we’re going to score!” And then he threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown. I’ll tell you what I’m tired of hearing about: Playoff experience (the Packers have little, the Seahawks have a lot). In Joe Montana’s 13 non-Super Bowl championship seasons, did the 49ers lose because the other team had more playoff experience, or was the other team just better sometimes? Something to think about, because the Packers are the better team. By far. Pick: Packers 30, Seahawks 13
New England (-13) over Jacksonville Can everyone please just stop with propping up the Jaguars as world beaters? They played a very solid first half against the Steelers last week and then came through when they needed to in the 4th quarter. But their quarterback completed just 9 passes for the entire game. I just don’t see it. The Patriots are rested and ready for the first time in a month. They haven’t had an opportunity to run up the score on an opponent in eight weeks. I don’t think this one will even be close. Pick: Patriots 42, Jaguars 16
Indianapolis (-9) over San Diego I thought that the spread on this one was too high until I remembered how bad the Chargers looked last week. The same Titans team that the Colts almost beat with their backups had the Chargers dead to rights with about 20 minutes left in the game. The Titans led 6-3 and the Chargers had a 3rd-and-4. Rivers completed a pass to Tomlinson for a 1st down and San Diego eventually pulled away. This same Chargers team—without tight end Antonio Gates—is supposed to travel across the country and beat a rested Colts team in the dome? Pick: Colts 34, Chargers 17
NY Giants (+7½) over Dallas With the Jessica Simpson distraction looming over the Cowboys’ heads, there’s no way their focus is there for this game. (Just kidding. That might have been the most ridiculous “controversy” in the history of controversies.) Terrell Owens is hurt, the Cowboys have not played well the last few weeks of the season, and this Giants team is apparently better than I’ve given them credit for, especially defensively. The Giants bring enough pressure to disrupt the Cowboys’ offense, and save for one bad 4th quarter pass against the Patriots, Eli Manning has played very well the last two weeks. Plus this will be the third time the Cowboys and Giants play each other this year, and five of the last six playoff games between division foes has been decided by two touchdowns or less. I have a funny feeling that the Giants will keep this one close, but I just can’t see the Cowboys losing this one. Pick: Cowboys 27, Giants 24
If the four favorites win, we’ll have the best final four since the ’98 season when the 15-1 Vikings took on the 14-2 Falcons and the 14-2 Broncos played the 12-4 Jets. The Vikings had set all of the offensive records but fell to the surprising Falcons in overtime, while the Parcells-coached Jets led 10-0 late in the 3rd quarter before the Broncos stormed back for a 23-10 win.
And if it’s Patriots-Colts and Cowboys-Packers, settle in for one of the best Championship Sundays in a long time.
I didn’t want Week 17 of the NFL season to arrive without providing one last set of picks. It’s been an up and down season for the Sports in a Can handicapping department, but a 10-6 finish would put me over .500 for the season. And that’s what we’re aiming for.
Week 17 is always an odd week. Some teams are resting players, some teams aren’t. Some teams are playing for playoff spots, some teams are playing for pride. The spreads often don’t make sense heading into the games. In the last two seasons, we’ve had 8 underdogs cover in Week 17 both times (with 5 underdogs winning outright last year and 6 the year before). The trick, as always, is figuring out which underdogs to back.
New England (-14) over NY GIANTS
Buffalo (+7½) over PHILADELPHIA
Carolina (-2½) over TAMPA BAY
MIAMI (+2½) over Cincinnati
Detroit (+3½) over GREEN BAY
HOUSTON (-6) over Jacksonville
New Orleans (-2) over CHICAGO
CLEVELAND (-10½) over San Francisco
Seattle (+1) over ATLANTA
Dallas (+9) over WASHINGTON
NY JETS (-6) over Kansas City
DENVER (+3) over Minnesota
BALTIMORE (+3½) over Pittsburgh
San Diego (-8) over OAKLAND
St. Louis (+6) over ARIZONA
Tennessee (-6½) over INDIANAPOLIS
Last year, the Christmas weekend was interrupted by the NFL. With Christmas Eve on Sunday, there was no time for caroling, sleigh rides, or any of the other traditional fare. No, I had to sit inside and watch football all day. Thanks a lot, NFL.
It’s a little better this year, as Sunday is the 23rd of December. But I must have missed the memo that said it was OK to have a sporting event on at night on Christmas Eve. That’s right, Monday Night Football brings you Denver at San Diego, just a few hours before Santa arrives on the East Coast. Apparently nothing is sacred anymore.
Looks like I’ll need to have all of the gifts wrapped and under the tree by kickoff Saturday night (why yes, Virginia, there’s also a Saturday night game this week). And then it’s wall-to-wall football through Monday night.
Pittsburgh at St. Louis On the first day of Christmas, my true love gave to me, a Steelers team that’s suddenly lost two in a row against a Rams team whose three wins have come against San Francisco, Atlanta, and (inexplicably) New Orleans. My only hope for this game is that Bryant Gumble is once again absent and Tom Hammond replaces him for the second week in a row. Hammond was a breath of fresh air last week compared to the dreary Gumble. (Is he getting paid for the NFL Network gig? He sounds as if he’s doing the play-by-play of a bad golf tournament.)
Pick: Pittsburgh (-7½)
Dallas at Carolina You’ve got to love Terrell Owens: “Right now, Jessica Simpson is not a fan favorite in this locker room or in Texas Stadium. I think with everything that has happened, and obviously the way Tony played and the comparison between her and Carrie Underwood, I think a lot of people feel like she's probably taking his focus away. Other than that, she was at the top of my list until last week.” Apparently he was kidding about quarterback Tony Romo’s current and former girlfriends, but he sure sounds like the kind of guy you want on your team, doesn’t he? Pick: Dallas (-10½)
Cleveland at Cincinnati Oh the weather outside is frightful… How much fun was that Cleveland-Buffalo game last week? Talk about a whiteout. Rain or snow showers expected for this one, but the temps look to be too high for another blizzard game. Maybe we’ll have better luck in the Buffalo game, since it snows in Buffalo 287 days per year on average. Pick: Cincinnati (+3)
Green Bay at Chicago Last week I told you not trust anyone who says, “This team has nothing to play for” when making picks. Five of the eight teams who had playoff aspirations and were playing sub-.500 teams did not cover the spread (and two lost outright). This week there are 10 games that fall into this category (including this one). I’m going with four of the underdogs, although there will probably be more that cover. The trick, as always, is finding the right ones (and I went just 3-5 picking these types of games last week). Pick: Chicago (+8½)
Houston at Indianapolis It’s time once again for the Colts to enjoy their late season struggles. They barely beat Oakland last week and Jacksonville two weeks before that. A similar thing happened to them last year. Of course, they did win the Super Bowl last year. Pick: Houston (+7)
Kansas City at Detroit (-4½)
Do you realize that since October 18, Boston’s big three sports teams (the Red Sox, Patriots, and Celtics) are a combined 36- 3 with a World Series title, the best record in the NBA, and the potential for an historic undefeated season in the NFL? How can I focus on Kansas City-Detroit when those kinds of numbers are out there? Pick: Detroit (-5)
NY Giants at Buffalo Apparently Santa decided to put coal under the Giants’ tree. Brutal loss to Philly last week. Injury to Shockey. And the Patriots on the schedule next week. This team is some lake effect snow away from missing the playoffs. Pick: Buffalo (+3)
Oakland at Jacksonville Jaguars running back Fred Taylor is 40 yards away from rushing for the 17th most yards in NFL history. Yet he has never been selected to play in the Pro Bowl. Think about that for a minute. Baseball analogies include Alex Rodriguez (17th on the all-time home run list), Ken Griffey (20th on the all-time RBI list), Tom Glavine (21st on the all-time wins list), or John Smoltz (16th on the all-time strikeouts list) having never played in an All-Star Game. (And yes, baseball is on my mind at the moment but I’m completely ignoring the steroids thing for now.) Pick: Jacksonville (-13)
Philadelphia at New Orleans This year isn’t very much fun for the playoff possibilities is it? Last year at this time every team in the NFC was still alive for a playoff spot. I think even Ohio State could have made the NFC playoffs last season. This year? Five teams are fighting for the final two NFC playoff spots and four teams are in the hunt for the final three spots in the AFC. Booooorrrrrinnnng. Pick: Philadelphia (+3)
Atlanta at Arizona Bill Parcells continues to make life interesting, doesn’t he? Another round of playing two teams against each other and he ends up taking the job in Miami. I have three thoughts on the matter: 1) This should make the AFC East even more fun next year, with Belichick in a battle of wills with both Parcells and Mangini while the Bills remain the second best team in the division; 2) Love him or hate him, you have to respect that Bill Parcells chose two NFL franchises—the Falcons and Dolphins—that are in the most disarray to target for his next job; 3) Has anyone had a worse year than Falcons owner Arthur Blank? Between the Michael Vick saga, his head coach slinking off in the middle of the night, and now Parcells, don’t be surprised if Blank never believes a word anyone says to him every again. “Your car will be ready at 3pm, Mr. Blank.” “Liar! You’ve sold my car to someone else and are leaving me with a used ’79 Pinto aren’t you?!?!” Pick: Arizona (-10)
Tampa Bay at San Francisco Patriots fans should continue to root against the 49ers, as New England owns the 49ers’ 1st round draft pick next year. For those of you that dislike the Patriots, you should be rooting for San Francisco. Who says no one cares about this game?
Pick: Tampa Bay (-6½)
Baltimore at Seattle I have to confess something. About 10 years ago I vowed never to go to the mall on the weekend during Christmastime. I kept that vow until last Friday night. To my surprise, it wasn’t that crowded. I don’t know, maybe this Internet thing is really going to take off. Pick: Seattle (-10½)
Miami at New England I’d like to thank the NFL for moving this game to 4:15, at the same time as Jets-Titans. I’ll be deep in the heart of Jets country (Western Connecticut) on Sunday, seeking out a sports bar that’s not filled with Jets fans. 95% of the country will receive Patriots-Dolphins, but not where I’ll be. Thanks, NFL! Thanks, WFSB Channel 3 in Connecticut! Pick: New England (-22)
NY Jets at Tennessee And here’s the game that’s making December 23rd more difficult for me! At least I have this tidbit to look forward to: The last four teams that have played the Patriots have gone 0-4 the next week and have lost by the cumulative score of 137-80. It takes a lot out of you to gear up for the Patriots. Pick: Tennessee (-8½)
Washington at Minnesota The game with the most playoff implications happens during NBC’s Flex Game on Sunday Night Football. The Vikings win, the Redskins cannot make the playoffs. The Redskins win, and we’ve got some drama going into Week 17. Pick: Minnesota (-6½)
Denver at San Diego A yule log on the fire. The presents all wrapped and under the tree. The children all snug in their beds. The Missus in her 'kerchief, and I in my cap, settle down for a little Broncos-Chargers. And the hope that Saint Nicholas soon will be here. Pick: Denver (+8½)
A Merry Christmas to all! And to all a good night!
13-0. Only the 5th team in NFL history to get there. And considering that this weekend is The Game everyone has been pointing toward since Week 1, is there anyone in the known universe that doesn’t think 14-0 is next? And then there’s the winless Dolphins and a Giants team that will have their playoff positioning locked up. 16-0 is no longer just a passing thought. It’s practically guaranteed (well, not by anyone in a Patriots uniform anyway).
After escaping by the skin of their teeth against the Ravens two weeks ago, the Patriots got back to their demolition-crew ways against a Steeler team that couldn’t live up to their young safety’s guarantee. Maybe it’s better to be lucky than good, but it’s clear that this year the Patriots are sometimes lucky but always good.
The question of the day is: Why? Why did the 2007 Patriots take on an air of invincibility, and why are they three games away from perfection? There are 6 reasons why…
1. Arizona is better than Hawaii Or maybe more to the point, Miami would have been preferable to Hawaii this past February. If your name is Bill Belichick. When the Patriots lost the AFC Championship Game to the Colts last season, the coach earned a trip to Hawaii to lead the AFC representative in the Pro Bowl. He would rather have been in Miami for Super Bowl XLI. Arizona is the sight of Super Bowl XLII, and Coach Belichick decided—perhaps on the flight home—that he would be enjoying a dry heat this February and not attending any luaus.
(Which reminds me—isn’t there a better way to decide who coaches the Pro Bowl? You’re a step away from the Super Bowl and instead you have to go coach a game that no one—not the players, the fans, or the kind people of Hawaii—cares about? Can you imagine sitting on the plane to Honolulu when all of a sudden the drunk guy next to you screams, “Why didn’t you catch the ball Caldwell?!?”)
Belichick took his medicine, went to Hawaii, and turned it into one giant scouting mission. And I think he secretly took a vow to never be there again. One year after leaving all kinds of salary cap money on the table, Belichick and company decided that they needed to upgrade the team if they wanted to get back to the Super Bowl. The result was an influx of talent on both sides of the ball and a renewed attitude.
2. Tom Brady is Tom Brady 3,529 yards passing (7th), 24 touchdowns (tied for 4th), and an 87.9 passer rating (9th). Those are Tom Brady’s numbers from last season (along with his NFL rank). His leading wide receivers were Reche Caldwell (760 yards), Troy Brown (384 yards), and Doug Gabriel (344 yards). Not exactly Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Donte Stallworth.
What’s the point of all of this? Tom Brady is not some one-hit wonder who’s having an out-of-the-blue phenomenal season. Brady has routinely been in the 3,500+ yard range with anywhere from 23 to 28 touchdown passes per season. And he’s done that without big name talent around him. Ever. Is it any wonder that he’s taken the gifts he’s received and used them to the level he has?
There’s only one other quarterback in the league that would be having the type of success that Brady is having with this receiving corps: Peyton Manning.
The discussion of how good this team is begins and ends with Tom Brady.
3. Coaching Last week Jets head coach Eric Mangini kicked a field goal with 1:43 remaining in the game even though they trailed by 5 points. It was one of the worst coaching decisions I’ve ever seen. They’d already recovered one onside kick—what were the chances they’d recover another one? Have you ever seen a team recover two onside kicks in one game? Meanwhile, two weeks ago, Hall of Fame head coach Joe Gibbs called back-to-back timeouts prior to a field goal attempt by the Bills. That led to a penalty and an eventual loss.
Those are just two examples of the bad coaching in the NFL right now. Which makes the way Belichick and his staff coach stand out like Vince Lombardi at a Norv Turner look-a-like party. It’s not just the lack of letdown games and the lack of wasted timeouts that stands out for me with this team. It’s the little things they do.
Leading 35-7 with 4 seconds remaining before halftime against the Bills, the Patriots called timeout so that they could insert Randy Moss to help defend against a potential Hail Mary. Moss knocked down the ball at the goal line. Belichick and company are head and shoulders the best coaching staff in the league.
4. The schedule Don’t get me started on the argument that the Patriots are winning because of their schedule. Yes, they have the winless Dolphins and Jets in their division, but they’ve only faced each of those teams once so far and are 13-0. Meanwhile they’ve also beaten the #2 and #3 teams in the NFL—the Cowboys and Colts—on the road. Those two teams are a combined 23-1 against teams not named the Patriots. They’ve also beaten a 9-win team (Pittsburgh), two 8-win teams (Cleveland and San Diego), and a 7-win team twice (Buffalo).
What has aided the Patriots was having their bye week when they had it. Their bye week came right after their battle with the Colts, allowing them to rest up for a stretch that included two road games in three weeks and three straight night games. And that was all before their showdown with the Steelers. Now they have two more home games on the way, and their only road trip pre-Super Bowl will be to New York to face the Giants. After 13 games of hard work, the schedule is in the Patriots’ favor.
5. Randy Moss Randy Moss is to the Patriots what Bill Walton was to the Celtics in ’86, Dennis Rodman was to the Bulls in the ‘90s, and Deion Sanders was to the 49ers in ’94 and the Cowboys in ’95. Moss is a huge part of what the Patriots do offensively, and is the puzzle piece that turned this team from the leading Super Bowl contender into a juggernaut.
I put Moss 5th on my list for a reason, though. There are those out there that think Moss should be the league MVP this year. To them I say go back and read #2 in this list. Then take a look at Moss’ stats from the last few years. I was out in Vegas after the Patriots had signed Welker, Stallworth, and Adalius Thomas, and the odds for a New England Super Bowl win was 4-1, tied for the best on the board. Then they signed Moss. The last piece of the puzzle.
Moss has opened up the field for Brady. The two touchdown passes he threw to him during the Dolphins games were on two passes Brady would never in his life ever have thrown. But there was Moss, double-covered, so why the heck not? Welker has benefited from having Moss, and the entire aerial attack thrives because of him.
6. The defining incident Call it Spygate or whatever you want, that opening week incident galvanized this team to the point that they collectively decided to have no mercy on opponents. When a potential trap game arrives, there’s always Spygate to fall back on for inspiration. Right or wrong, it’s part of the motivation.
It’s the reason the Patriots are favored by 23½ points this weekend against the team that ratted them out. And it’s the reason (in addition to the first five on this list) that the Patriots are probably going to win by 40 or more points.
There are games every NFL season in which everyone thinks the favorite will roll to victory. Often it doesn’t work out that way (see Dallas-Detroit last week for a prime example). But I just get the feeling that Patriots-Jets will not be one of those games. I can see the Patriots coming out and running the ball—something they haven’t done consistently for weeks. I can see them running with a vengeance, scoring a touchdown, and setting up the passing game for an historic barrage for the remainder of the game. You thought the Steelers looked bad on those play action passes last week? It might look even worse this week. My pick in this one is Patriots 63, Jets 13.
The 2007 New England Patriots are on a mission. The reasons why are obvious.NFL Week 15 Picks
I’ve put together back-to-back solid weeks and have gotten the record back to respectability. I’m feeling so confident I decided to risk jinxing it and dole out some advice for this weekend’s games: Be wary of the team with “nothing to play for.” You always here prognosticators this time of year saying, “this team needs this game more.” Sports doesn’t always work that way. Last season in Week 15 there were 9 games involving a team with a sub-.500 record and a team in the playoff hunt. The underdog won four of those games outright and covered the spread in two others. There are 8 of these games this weekend (I’m not counting the 6-7 Lions and Redskins as out of it yet). I’m taking four of the underdogs.
HOUSTON (+1) over Denver SAN FRANCISCO (+8½) over Cincinnati NEW ORLEANS (-3½) over Arizona Atlanta (+13½) over TAMPA BAY Baltimore (-3½) over MIAMI CLEVELAND (-5½) over Buffalo Green Bay (-9½) over ST. LOUIS Jacksonville (+3½) over PITTSBURGH NEW ENGLAND (-23½) over NY Jets Seattle (-7) over CAROLINA KANSAS CITY (+4) over Tennessee OAKLAND (+10½) over Indianapolis SAN DIEGO (-10) over Detroit Philadelphia (+10) over DALLAS NY GIANTS (-4½) over Washington MINNESOTA (-10) over Chicago
Mitch Albom had his Tuesdays with Morrie. The Missus and I have our Sundays with Andrew Siciliano.
Let’s start at the beginning, shall we? Back in 2001 we switched from cable to DirecTV. Why? The cost savings was the number one reason. But a close second was a little something called the NFL Sunday Ticket. This package allowed me to watch every single NFL game that’s on every single weekend. No longer did I have to scan the TV listings each week only to be disappointed that I would have to suffer through a game between two crappy teams while the game of the day was being shown in someone else’s house. No, now I had the power.
For six NFL seasons I reveled each Sunday with the NFL package. Feet up, clicker in hand, I was able to flip from game to game, catching all of the NFL action known to man. Then we got HD. And I didn’t think life could get any better.
Until we met Andrew.
I was a little leery at first of this creation that DirecTV calls the Red Zone Channel. The stated purposed was to show any game—live—once one team entered the red zone (inside their opponents’ 20-yard line). I thought, “There’s no way this will be better than flipping around.” And, “How on earth could they pull this off?”
Shocking but true, they do pull it off. And I haven’t watched a full non-Patriots Sunday afternoon game since.
Who is Andrew, you ask? That would be Andrew Siciliano, the host of the Red Zone Channel. Andrew sits at a desk staring at a bank of 15 television screens and previews the upcoming games of the day. As soon as the first game kicks off, he “grabs the remote” and takes us live to that game. From that point forward—whenever another game seems more appealing—he “bounces out” into that game. If one game is about to head to a commercial, he takes us to another game. Immediately. As a matter of fact, this past Sunday, I saw my first advertisement of any kind a full hour-and-a-half into the day’s action. At that point, with most games heading into halftime, we go live to Andrew’s studio and a voiceover reads, “The Red Zone Channel. Brought to you by Sony.” Then Andrew shows highlights from the first half. That’s it. That brief ad for Sony (and the Best Buy logo that is displayed when a final box score from a game is flashed on the screen) is all the advertising I see all day. (There’s no way that can continue—DirecTV has to think of a way to make more money from the advertisers, but I’ll enjoy it while it lasts.)
And Andrew somehow pulls off this near-impossible job of watching as many as 10 games at once almost seamlessly. A team is about to punt? Andrew breaks in and says, “We don’t show you punts here at the Red Zone Channel. Unless Devin Hester is involved.” The announcers for a particular game throw it back to New York for a highlight from another game? Andrew breaks in and says, “You just saw that. Let’s grab the remote and bounce out to another game.” He’s quick, he’s funny, and he’s got what seems like a dream job, as hard as it probably is to do.
The only complaint I have for Andrew? Sometimes he quits early. Some Sundays around 5:30, when the second round of Sunday games are going on, he lets us know that he’s shutting down for the day. He tells us what channel to find all the games on, but he’s out of there. I understood it the Sunday that the Patriots were playing the Colts—I mean who wanted to watch Houston-Oakland or Cleveland-Seattle when the Game of the Millennium was being played? But on a typical Sunday afternoon, I want Andrew running the switchboard and taking me around the league. When I’m spending 10 straight hours on the couch, expending energy by using the remote is pretty taxing.
Other than that, I have no complaints. The Missus and I love our Sundays with Andrew. He does all the heavy lifting, and we don’t have to search around for the game of the day. And with the Patriots playing a night game seemingly every week, we’ve had some time to really bond with Andrew and appreciate the man’s dedication to the NFL.
Dwelling on our latest find got me thinking about the revolutionary technological advancements that have come our way in the last 10 years. And I wondered where I would place Andrew’s channel. Let’s check out one man’s list:
The Sports in a Can Top 10 Technological Advancements of the Last 10 Years
1. The Internet 2. Email 3. Cellphones 4. TiVo 5. Wireless Internet access 6. High Definition television 7. NFL Sunday Ticket 8. iTunes 9. Tollbooth transponders 10. The Red Zone Channel
This list assumes the technological advancement had an impact on me, personally, so hybrid cars don’t make the list. Not yet, anyway. Maybe my next car. And if you want to quibble with the timing of some of them, so be it. I don’t remember when Al Gore invented the Internet, I just don’t recall it impacting my life pre-1997. Same goes for email. And cellphones have come a looong way since you had to carry around a phone booth to make a call. Those are easily my top three because each can end the phrase: “Do you remember what we did before _____?” TiVo has worked its way up to #4 and is nearing life-changing potential.
Andrew’s channel lands in 10th position and could threaten tollbooth transponders in the near future. That’s how life-altering it is.
Last week we watched a whiparound that included Jacksonville pulling away from Buffalo, Oakland upsetting Kansas City, Seattle holding on against St. Louis, and Tampa Bay holding on against Washington. All live. On a Sunday when the top five teams in the NFL weren’t playing, the excitement level was still high in the Sports in a Can living room.
We’ve got five more Sundays with Andrew before the Red Zone Channel goes dark for the winter. We’ll be enjoying every last second.Week 13 NFL Picks
DALLAS (-7) over Green Bay ST. LOUIS (-3) over Atlanta Buffalo (+5½) over WASHINGTON MINNESOTA (-3½) over Detroit TENNESSEE (-3½) over Houston INDIANAPOLIS (-6½) over Jacksonville MIAMI (-1) over NY Jets San Diego (-5½) over KANSAS CITY Seattle (+3) over PHILADELPHIA San Francisco (+3) over CAROLINA Cleveland (+1) over ARIZONA Denver (-3½) over OAKLAND CHICAGO (+1½) over NY Giants Tampa Bay (+3) over NEW ORLEANS PITTSBURGH (-7) over Cincinnati New England (-20½) over BALTIMORE
With Thanksgiving upon us, I’d like to take this opportunity to say how thankful I am for Head Chef Belichick’s Humble Pie and all that comes with it: A 10-0 record, some incredible football, and a healthy debate surrounding all things Patriots.
I’d also like to thank the 59 different people who chimed in with 200 comments on last week’s piece, Odds of Perfection. I didn’t have time to personally respond to each one, so instead I’ll respond in this week’s piece. I’ve grouped the various themes of the responses into 11 main categories, and have responded in kind below.
1. Articulate football insight Thank you to everyone who posted an articulate response. It’s good to know that there are people out there who can have a healthy debate without resorting to vulgarity and/or name-calling. Thanks for stopping by and commenting!
2. Pats’ fans (over?) confidence There are quite a few confident Patriots fans these days. Some are over the top and it’s rubbing fans of other teams the wrong way. My advice? Deal with it. My guess is you’d see this type of reaction from any team’s fans, no matter which NFL team was mowing down opponents without mercy.
But I’m still amazed by the widespread thought that this group of fans—and players—is any more arrogant than those involved with previous juggernauts. The 1985 Bears recorded a song and music video entitled “The Super Bowl Shuffle.” When did they record that? Not Super Bowl week. Not after their first playoff win. No, during the regular season. After they lost their only game of the season as a matter of fact. You can’t get much more arrogant than that.
So get used to it everyone. The Patriots are favored by 22½ points in their next game. TWENTY-TWO AND A HALF points! And that number might even go up by the weekend. It’s not just Patriots fans feeling overly confident about this team. And with good reason.
3. Questioning my picking ability Let me remind everyone—again—that my weekly NFL picks are against the point spread. The point spread is established to encourage even betting on both sides of the number. And the folks in Vegas are very, very rich. Which means picking winners every week is not easy. Show me someone who picks every game every week and has a record above .500 this season and I’ll gladly give him or her props. ESPN Page 2’s Bill Simmons’ wife is 83-68-8. It’s the best record I’ve seen out there. And she admittedly doesn’t like the sport.
So if you’ve never tried to make picks on a weekly basis, questioning my picks is kind of like throwing stones, don’t you think?
4. The Patriots are cheaters [Sigh]. All right, let’s try and get this one over with once and for all. The Patriots were caught cheating. I wholeheartedly agree. They were fined and lost a first round draft pick. But to somehow take that incident and leap to various conclusions such as “they cheat all the time,” “this tarnishes their legacy,” or “they should have an asterisk by their record” doesn’t hold water. First, they were caught doing something that (according to various source inside the NFL) every team in the league used to do all the time. In the offseason, the league’s new commissioner made it clear that this practice would no longer be tolerated. Whether through arrogance, hubris, or plain old stupidity, the Patriots decided to keep doing it and got caught. This was in the first half of the first game of the season. Can any rational person really argue that videotaping the Jets for a half has somehow helped the Patriots’ players win every single game this season? I mean, they videotaped the Jets. (And I’ll refrain from making a joke about the Steelers here.)
And don’t get me started on Rodney Harrison getting caught with HGH. He served his penalty and is back playing, just like Shawne Merriman did last year. Merriman’s back flexing in NFL-licensed commercials and no one says a word. Oh, but a Patriot was caught? Cheaters! Branded for life! Put the scarlet letter on their chests! All of them!
5. Obnoxious Steelers fans spouting off about their team Just as not every Patriots fan who responded was obnoxious, not every Steelers fan who responded was obnoxious. But there were plenty who were. To the non-obnoxious posters I say: Sorry about the tough loss to the Jets. I feel your pain.
To the obnoxious Steelers fan posters I say the following: Your team was 7-2 when you posted and you were just as (or more) obnoxious than fans of the undefeated Patriots. Then your team lost to the lowly Jets—the Jets! A team who came in with just one win and tried to give the game away by inexplicably going for it on 4th down on two consecutive possessions in the 4th quarter before finally tying the game and sending it into overtime. Meanwhile the Patriots destroyed the Bills 56-10. Your team beat the Bills by just 26-3 back in September. Unfair comparison? The Patriots beat the Bills one week later 38-7. You might want to be careful with the smack-talk in the future. As a matter of fact, this weekend is the tail of two point spreads for these two teams. The Patriots are favored by 22½ over the 5-5 Eagles. And most people would give those points in a heartbeat (the spread’s already gone up by ½ point since the open). The Steelers are favored by 16 over the 0-10 Dolphins. The spread hasn’t moved. I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes down by game time.
6. Wishing an injury on Brady or Moss My only response to these people is to get a life. You are the same people who call Belichick classless and the Patriots poor sports. Pathetic. You probably complain when the Patriots are running up the score, so your response is to wish an injury on someone. Wow. Be sure to remind me to have you teach some local youths your brand of justice some day.
7. The ridiculously high odds in last week’s piece Perhaps when I settled on the odds I’d use last week and tied them to real-life events I should have made it clear that I was exaggerating. I thought that went without saying. Apparently not.
8. People wanting to take me up on those odds I’m touched that you think I have that much power. Or money. But alas, no, I will not take nor cover any bets based on the odds in my blog. I’m not as crazy as you think I am. What are the odds I'll cover the odds from last week’s blog? About the same as getting struck by lightning. Twice.
9. The classless Bill Belichick Is Bill Belichick an arrogant, classless jerk? He sure seems to be. But you know what? He’s our arrogant, classless jerk. And I don’t say that in a “I’m going to root for Barry Bonds because he’s a San Francisco Giant, even if he injects himself with steroids during an at bat” kind of way. Belichick is not infallible. I’m a Patriots fan and I readily admit that. But there is no other NFL head coach I’d rather have in charge of my team. And if you’re a fan of another team and you can allow yourself a moment of honesty, I think you’d agree with me. Yes, he screwed up with the videogate incident and yes he’s arrogant. But so what? As a fan, I want the team to win every game. And unlike all but a few coaches in NFL history, Belichick seems to have the ability to ready his team for victory every single week.
10. The Patriots’ weak schedule Weak schedule, weak division, weak opponents. Weak argument. They’ve handed the best team in the NFC their only loss and the defending Super Bowl champions their first loss. Both on the road. They just went on the road and destroyed a division opponent riding a four-game winning streak by 46 points. Yes they’ve played Miami and the Jets. But they didn’t lose
