As matchbox twenty sings, “Let’s see how far we’ve come.”

Eighteen weeks after the 2007 season began, we’ve got an AFC Championship match-up that seemed plausible prior to the season, and an NFC match-up that no one saw coming back in August.

The road to Super Bowl XLII has been long and winding. With just one Sunday of football remaining before the hype truly begins, let’s take a look at what we’ve learned during this NFL season and postseason.

Jacksonville’s in the wrong division
Heck, they might even be in the wrong conference. They’ve lost five out of six to Indianapolis, leaving them without the opportunity to win their division year after year. This means a Wild Card spot at best and no real chance to make it to the Super Bowl. If they were in the NFC they might just be a perennial powerhouse.

This is a shame for the Jaguars, because they showed last week just how good they can be in their battle royale with the undefeated Patriots. It might have been the last tough game the Patriots have this year to tell you the truth. But the Jags still lost, and if they don’t find a way to get past the Colts (or get switched to a different division) painful road playoff losses remain in the Jaguars’ future.

The NFC is a crapshoot
Seven different teams have won an NFC division in the last two years. Only Seattle repeated as division champion this year. In the AFC, three of the four division champions repeated, with New England and Indianapolis winning their divisions for five straight years. If I needed to do my NFL 2008 preview right now, I’d go with New England, Indianapolis, and San Diego to repeat again, and Cleveland to get over the hump. And in the NFC? Who knows? How about Arizona, Washington, Detroit, and Atlanta?

Offense is in
It wasn’t just Tom Brady and Randy Moss and their record-setting seasons. Scoring was up across the board and there was no defense that stood out like in seasons past. The last Super Bowl champion that rode their offense to the title was the ’99 Rams (and that team actually gave up just 22 points over their final two games). The last seven champions held their first playoff opponent under 20 points, and all but the ’04 Patriots held their first two playoff opponents under 20 points. This week’s favorites to make the Super Bowl, the Patriots and Packers, each gave up 20 points in their first playoff games (and scored 31 and 42, respectively). This season, and playoffs, is all about the offense.

Resting players = losing playoff recipe
Tampa Bay rested their players for an unprecedented two straight weeks then lost at home to the Giants. The Cowboys and Colts both rested players prior to their bye week and both lost at home. Meanwhile, the Giants and Patriots battled to the death prior to the playoffs with nothing to gain and each stands one game from the Super Bowl. It’s a trend to keep an eye on for future postseasons.

Maybe it’s the Chargers who are the problem
After the Chargers questioned the Patriots’ class after last year’s playoff tussle (Public Enemy #1) I started to wonder if what the players were saying was true. But then I watched the Chargers jaw with the Broncos. And the Titans. And the Colts’ fans. And I thought, “maybe it’s the Chargers who have no class.” I’m just saying…

It’s a good thing Peyton won a ring last year
Watching the Colts blow another playoff game at home last week made me even angrier that the Patriots lost to them last year. But the perfect season wouldn’t have happened without that loss (more on that in a moment), so I guess in retrospect it was a good thing. For both the Patriots and Peyton Manning. The Colts won the Super Bowl, did it by going through the Patriots, and Peyton got his ring.

By the way he and his teammates played last week leads me to believe it might be his only ring. His best receiver was barely able to take the field (and then he fumbled when he did) and the offense’s play-calling was awful while the execution was even worse. Last year just might have been it for the Colts.

Yes, everyone, I’m sorry, but the Patriots are this good
It took the perfect storm of events to produce the first 17-0 team since the ’72 Dolphins. But that storm arrived. One year ago this weekend the first brick in the foundation was laid, as the Patriots’ offense couldn’t catch a key pass to win the game and the aging defense ran out of gas against the Colts. Then Belichick had to coach the Pro Bowl and I believe he secretly vowed to never be there again. New England loaded up with three wide receivers and the best defensive free agent on the market. Finally, “spygate” occurred, galvanized the team, and the rest is history.

I think Belichick’s defensive game plan for the last six weeks has been to play as vanilla as possible until the second half. If the game’s been close, he releases the hounds. Meanwhile, the offense continues to be a nearly unstoppable machine. It’s reached the point in which the first opponent’s turnover or punt signals that the game is officially over.

The days are getting shorter, the blasts of humidity are followed by cool evenings, and the back-to-school sales are unavoidable. What does all of this mean? Summer is almost over, kids everywhere are dreading weekdays, and NFL football is one week away.

Friday night the final preseason games will be over and fans everywhere can stop wasting time and money on meaningless exhibition contests. And everyone can stop talking about Michael Vick as well. But we probably won’t.

Here are the 12 most important questions that need to be answered in the upcoming season (we’ll get to predictions next week):

Can we survive without Michael Vick?
Let’s get this question out of the way right at the top. Michael Vick, the football player? I’m afraid the answer is yes, we can go on without him. Sure, he was the human highlight film, the greatest SportsCenter segment since Bo Jackson. But as a quarterback, Vick never quite measured up. He threw for 3,870 yards and 21 touchdowns in 74 career games (Peyton Manning reaches those numbers in 10 games). He led the Falcons to the playoffs twice in four years, winning just two playoff games. On the other hand, Vick the dog-murdering gambling-ring-running convict? I’m not sure we can survive without beating that topic to death (unfortunate pun unintended).

Is that a phone booth?
It was bad enough when the officials went “under the hood” to take a look at controversial replays. Now the NFL has provided a Fotomat booth for them to climb inside. It looks as if there’s enough room for a Jacuzzi, big screen TV, and mini-fridge in there. The reason for the change is a good one, though—the referees will finally have HD pictures to look at. No longer will I have a better view of a play than the officials at the game have. (That is, except for those few games that CBS refuses to show in HD. But don’t get me going on that.)

How much is too much?
How many times will the Tony Romo’s fumbled snap that cost the Cowboys a playoff game be shown? 100? 1,000? 100,000? These are the things I think about.

Who are the musical acts for Opening Night?

John Mellencamp is the headliner for next Thursday’s Colts-Saints pre-game show. Because hearing 30 seconds of “This is Our Country” every 10 minutes for the past year-and-a-half wasn’t enough. Now maybe we’ll get to hear the whole song! (Faith Hill, Kelly Clarkson, and Hinder are also scheduled to appear. Just in case you were wondering.)

Is there really a regular season game being played in London this year?

Bloody right! The Week 8 match-up between the Giants and Dolphins will be played in jolly old England. It will start at the very normal-sounding time of 1pm Eastern, or tea-time by British watches. My only hope is that the guest announcers for the game will be John Cleese and Hugh Laurie.

Can my prognosticating possibly get any worse?

I hope against hope that the answer to this question is no. Last season I went an incredibly bad 112-140-4 against the spread. It was the worst performance of my illustrious picking-just-for-fun-career, and a far cry from the 136-110-10 season I posted in 2003-04. Not even my 12-6 record on Monday Nights last year or my 4-0 week in round one of the playoffs kept me happy this summer.

What are the best games on the schedule in the first couple of weeks?

New Orleans at Indianapolis next Thursday is a heck of a way to kick off the new season—with last year’s champs hosting last year’s surprise team. (Chicago at San Diego Sunday afternoon would be the Week 1 runner-up.) In Week 2, Sunday Night’s San Diego at New England tilt is one worth staying up for, as the Chargers look to avenge last year’s heartbreaking playoff loss to the Patriots.

How many Bengals will be arrested this season?

Nine Cincinnati Bengals were arrested last year. That’s more arrests than wins for Cincinnati (they won 8 games last season). With a new sheriff in town who’s tough on crime (NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell), the boys from Cincy might want to try and walk the straight and narrow this season. The over/under on Bengals arrests is 4 this year.

Have we seen the last of Tiki Barber?

Unfortunately, no. Barber will be a weekly part of NBC’s Sunday Night Football package. The former Giants running back—who told us over and over again that he was looking to get into serious journalism—has made headlines recently for ripping his former teammate, quarterback Eli Manning. Since controversy = ratings, expect more of the same from Barber and NBC.

Will there be retribution against Major League Baseball for their bizarro scheduling?

Major League Baseball announced in May that the playoff schedule would be different this year. One of the major changes was that the first game of the World Series would begin on a Wednesday, instead of a Saturday. Historically, the NFL went dark on the Sunday that matched up with Game 2 of the World Series, thus allowing baseball to have the full spotlight. And they have once again obliged, going dark on the night of what will now be Game 4. But baseball—in their grand wisdom—will now have a scheduled World Series game on a Monday, squaring off against Monday Night Football for the first time in who knows how long. Is nothing sacred anymore? I’m imploring the NFL to utilize the flex schedule and put a game up against Game 4of the World Series, just to teach Bud Selig a lesson.

Can the Colts repeat?
On one hand, the fact remains that in the last 26 years only four teams have repeated. On the other hand, the Colts once again have a pretty easy schedule (their toughest stretch comes mid-season with games at Jacksonville, at Carolina, vs. New England, and vs. San Diego, but they finish at Oakland, vs. Houston, vs. Tennessee). Plus they are still the Colts. Until someone in their division rises up, expect the Colts to once again win the South, make the playoffs, and then…who knows?

Is it all Greek to you?

This year’s Super Bowl will be number 42, or XLII. We’ve almost reached the point of confusion with the Roman numerals. III years from now will be Super Bowl XLV, which sounds like a new rap group. And in VII years, we’ll have number XLIX. Try explaining that one to the kids. I year later we’ll have Super Bowl L. And before you know it we’ll be looking back on games LXXXVIII, XC, XCIX, and C. There must be an easier way.

Peyton Manning was the hero. Bill Belichick was everyone’s choice for goat. Tom Brady could have put the game away on two different drives, but didn’t. The world was upside down. Dogs and cats were living together. It was anarchy.

I had written at one point, “Whoever kicks fewer field goals probably wins this game.” Of course, I had written that about the Patriots-Chargers game. After all of the buildup regarding former Patriot Adam Vinatieri playing for the Colts, it ended up not mattering who was kicking for either team. Vinatieri was 3-for-3 and Stephen Gostkowski was 4-for-4. All that mattered was that the Colts were able to exorcise all of their past demons and score a touchdown—instead of a field goal—with one minute to play.

As the final 16 seconds ticked away in the most improbable (and exciting) AFC Championship Game imaginable, it was time for the questions to begin. Were we witnessing the end of the Patriots Dynasty? The beginning of a Colts resurgence? Both? Neither?

NFL history is littered with tales of teams that finally rise up to knock off their nemesis and become the top dog for years to come. The Steelers finally beat the Raiders in 1975 and then won four of the next six Super Bowls. Dallas knocked off San Francisco in 1993 and won three of the next four Super Bowls.

But then there’s the flip side. The teams that eventually get over the hump but don’t remain on top. Steve Young’s 49ers finally defeated the Cowboys in 1995 and won Super Bowl XXIX. But San Franciso never returned to the Super Bowl. The same goes for the Ravens in 2000.

So the question is, did the Colts knocking off the Patriots last week signal a regime change in the AFC? Does Indianapolis have multiple championships in their future after finally knocking off their nemesis? Or will the Patriots be able to rebound from this difficult loss?

It’s difficult to predict, but one thing’s for sure: The Patriots and Colts have enjoyed unparalleled success over the last eight years. Each team has won five division titles. Only the Philadelphia Eagles have won as many in that timeframe. And all signs point to these two teams continuing their domination.

This may seem simplistic, but here’s the winning formula in the NFL, circa 2007: Solid organization, good coaching, top defense, good quarterback. NFC teams currently only need one of these four qualities to reach the Super Bowl. In the AFC, you need some combination of all four. A deficiency in any area means you need to be even stronger in another.

The Colts and Patriots have at least three of these ingredients in their annual recipe. Indianapolis has an organization willing to spend the money and make the key decisions necessary to keep the team in contention. New England has stuck with a personnel plan with which they’ve been successful. Both teams have solid coaching staffs. New England’s success has been predicated on defense, while the Colts’ defense has been an annual problem.

At the quarterback position, you can’t do much better than Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Either of these guys alone is easily worth 8 wins per year. The Colts would be a completely different team without Manning. And could the Patriots have come anywhere close to the AFC Championship Game without Brady?

It’s one of the reasons this AFC Championship Game was so compelling. While other teams get by with “game managers” or guys who are streaky at best, Manning and Brady are consistently good. Name another quarterback you’d rather have in a big spot, and I’d call you crazy no matter who you came up with. They’re this generation’s Bird and Magic.

So with the ingredients for success in place, it stands to reason that both the Colts and Patriots will be back next year. Indianapolis has some decisions to make (most notably potential free agent Dwight Freeney), but could come back with virtually the same team. Plus they play in a division that is annually winnable. The Patriots have as much as $30 million dollars to spend to the salary cap next year (depending on whom you talk to), and will have two first round draft picks thanks to the Deion Branch trade. Barring bad decisions, the Patriots should be battling for the AFC crown next year as well.

I have a funny feeling these two teams might face off once more in next year’s AFC title game. And the location of that game might just be determined by their regular season match-up.

I wrote last week that until the Colts knocked off the Patriots, we don’t have a “true rivalry.” Once the Colts win Super Bowl XLI (and how can they lose at this point?), Manning will no longer be the Wilt Chamberlain to Tom Brady’s Bill Russell. The Colts will be the defending champs and the Patriots will be looking to take back their crown.

Now that’s a rivalry.

www.sportsinacan.com

It’s not easy at the top. Everyone’s gunning for you and can’t wait to see you fail. They say everyone loves a winner. Until you try to keep winning, that is. And then they don’t love you anymore.

Such is the case with the New England Patriots. Derided for years as one of the laughing stocks of the NFL, it all changed in 2002 when they defeated the heavily-favored “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. It was called a fluke at the time and no one believed that the Patriots would be back. But back they came, winning a total of three Super Bowls in four years. Now head coach Bill Belichick is hailed as a genius and quarterback Tom Brady draws comparisons to the legendary Joe Montana.

Somewhere between that first Super Bowl win and this weekend, the Patriots went from lovable success story to a hated, arrogant, lucky team in the eyes of many. The whole postgame episode with LaDanian Tomlinson last week drove the point home: Everyone hates the Patriots.

But this a team that has shown that they excel when everyone is against them. They are two wins away from accomplishing what only one other team has ever accomplished: Winning four Super Bowls in six years. Only the Pittsburgh Steelers of the ‘70s pulled off that trick. I wonder how that team was viewed nationally at the time. Did people get sick of them winning as well?

There’s a strange combination of things that go on with teams that win multiple championships. First, there’s the human nature element of wanting to see other teams win. It gets boring watching the same team win over and over again. (Unless it’s your team.)

Then there’s the compulsion to tear down whoever is on top. Think about it. Michael Jordan took those two years off between sets of three NBA titles. The scuttlebutt is that it was a hush-hush “suspension” for his gambling problem. Is that the truth, or was it just a tale designed to tear down the top dog? This week’s Patriot-bashing makes me ask the same kind of question. Are they truly an arrogant team full of sore winners or is everyone just trying to find fault with the team of the decade?

Here’s the other problem the Patriots face. They have no true rival. In the ‘80s, the Lakers and Celtics had a great rivalry. And since they took turns winning eight titles (five by Boston and three by Los Angeles), there wasn’t a consensus hatred toward either team. But the Patriots are more comparable to Jordan’s Bulls (six titles in the ‘90s with only Jordan’s semi-retirement preventing eight straight). The only teams that have prevented the Patriots from winning the Super Bowl in the last five years are the Jets and the Broncos. The Jets won in New England in the second-to-last game of the 2002 season, keeping the Patriots out of the playoffs that year. Last season, the Broncos handed the Patriots their first (and so far only) playoff loss under Belichick.

But neither the Jets nor the Broncos won the Super Bowl those years. So it’s the Patriots and everyone else. And don’t call Patriots-Colts a rivalry. To have a true rivalry, both teams need to win big games. It’s akin to calling the pre-2004 Red Sox-Yankees skirmishes a rivalry. If the Colts win this weekend, then we’ll talk. But we all know that’s not going to happen. Peyton Manning and the Colts cannot beat the Patriots in the playoffs. We do all know that, right?

And therein lies the other part of the Patriots-bashing. Check out any NFL message board this weekend and you’ll see what I’m talking about. Patriots fans—after years of torture—are reveling in this team’s fortune. And the lack of (or perceived lack of) national acceptance of this team’s greatness brings out the worst in some Patriots fans.

So the Patriots and their fans become Public Enemy #1. The new Yankees. Hated, despised, and rooted against from all four corners of the globe. To my fellow fans I say this: Enjoy the ride. Years from now we’ll look back on this time as one of the greatest runs in sports history. And we won’t be alone. History has a way of magnifying greatness.

In the meantime, just because everyone else on earth will be rooting for the Saints to beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl, don’t worry about spoiling that magical ending. Just enjoy the ride.

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Championship Weekend Picks

Last week vs. the spread: 2-2
Playoffs: 6-2

The final three playoff games last weekend were all won by 3 points. If this weekend’s games come anywhere close to matching the fun of those games, then the twelve straight hours spent on the couch will all be worth it. Oh, who am I kidding? Any day spent on the couch watching sports is worth it. Settle in for the final Sunday of wall-to-wall football before Super Bowl XLI.

NFC Championship Game
New Orleans (+2½) over CHICAGO

Let’s start with the JV game. I sat there last week and wondered how a team with a shaky quarterback, an overrated defense, and a lousy coach could advance to the NFC Championship Game. And then I realized that two of them were playing each other, so one of them had to move on. All I want to know is what the Bears’ coaching staff was thinking during the final 2:15 of regulation. The Seahawks had a 4th down coming up with the clock running and the game tied. The Bears were certainly getting the ball back at some point, and they would either be tied or trailing—and yet they let the clock run down to the two-minute warning instead of taking a timeout. Worse, with less than 15 seconds remaining in regulation and the Seahawks once again facing a 4th down, the Bears waited until the clock ran down to 2 seconds to call a timeout. Of course, that left the Seahawks with enough time to do only one thing: Try to run a Hail Mary play. Talk about brilliant clock management and decision-making.

I’m not going with the Saints because of sentimental reasons . I’m going with the Saints because they’re the better team. They have the better quarterback (by far) and the better coach. When you’ve got those two check marks in your favor, you should win the game, no matter whom (or where) you’re playing.

And for those who think the Saints can’t win in the cold confines of Soldier Field, think about this: The Saints won their last three road games, with two of them coming against playoff opponents. Dome teams might be 0-9 in Championship Games outdoors, but that’s not going to matter. I honestly don’t even think this one will be close. Prediction: Saints 34, Bears 20

AFC Championship Game
New England (+3) over INDIANPOLIS

After the Saints are done accepting the trophy in the middle of Soldier Field, it will be time for the match-up of the weekend. Patriots-Colts. I just watched the NFL Network replay of the regular season game these two played. I kept wondering one thing: How on Earth did the Patriots lose this game? Tipped passes, fumbles that went out of bounds, fantastic catches by Colts receivers, and questionable play-calling by the Patriots were the highlights. And the Patriots still had the ball with under two minutes left, down by 7. Their offense is playing at a much higher level now and the defense—which lost Rodney Harrison to injury early in the previous game—has made the adjustments that have made the unit more effective.

Everyone keeps talking about how well the Colts’ defense is playing in the playoffs. But they’ve gone up against a team in the Chiefs that refused to change its play-calling even when running up the middle against a 10-man front wasn’t working, and a team in the Ravens that ran the worst offense in a playoff game I’ve ever seen. What Colts fans should be concerned about is their offense. 23 points against the Chiefs? At home? And no touchdowns against the Ravens last week? It’s not going to get any easier against a defense that just held San Diego—the best offense in the NFL this season—to 21 points.

Last night I watched Super Bowl XXXVI in its entirety (thank you, NFL Network). And I was struck by three things. First, how astoundingly bad the telecast was. Pat Summerall and John Madden were worse than I ever remembered. It felt like a preseason game and they were working out the kinks. It’s hard to believe that was six years ago. If the score weren’t on the screen for the entire game I would have thought it was a game from the ‘80s. Second, U2 is one of the most legendary bands of all time. Other than the Beatles, no other musical group in rock history has grabbed the spotlight so effectively as they did at halftime of that game (when they did a tribute to the victims of 9/11) and during the pregame of the Saints’ opener this year (the first game in New Orleans since Hurricane Katrina). When tragedy hits, bring in U2. They rock the house.

Finally, the third thing that struck me while re-watching Super Bowl XXXVI was the fact that the Patriots beat that year’s best football team by out-coaching, out-scheming, and out-muscling them. The Patriots clearly did not have the better stats (24th in total defense that season) or players. And yet there they were, from the opening play until the final gun, dominating that game.

Brady’s top weapons that day were Troy Brown, David Patten, Jermaine Wiggins, J.R. Redmond, and Antowian Smith. You’re telling me an older, wiser Brady, can’t get it done now when his top weapons are named Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney, Troy Brown, Corey Dillon, and Laurence Maroney? I beg to differ. It’s the 2001 playoffs all over again, as Brady—with the Larry Bird-like quality of making those around him better—wills his team to the Super Bowl. Again. Prediction: Patriots 24, Colts 20

Enjoy the ride.

www.sportsinacan.com

At first glance, the NFL playoffs took on an air of normalcy last weekend. After a crazy season, all four home teams won and advanced. This marked the first time since 2000 that all four home teams won in Round 1 (and just the second time since this playoff format was introduced in 1990). The better teams were playing at home and the better teams won. Not so crazy, right?

I even got my prediction swerve on. I had the Colts by 13, and they won by 15. I had the Patriots by 28, and they won by 21. I covered the spread on the two NFC games, missing out on the actual finishes by the slimmest of margins. I had Cowboys by 1, and they lost by 1; I had the Giants by 3 in overtime, and they lost by 3 on a last second field goal. Considering the year I had picking games, I’m as shocked as you are that I went 4-0 against the spread last week.

Upon closer inspection of the Wild Card weekend games, it’s clear that Crazy was in the house. Perhaps the most normal contest was the Patriots-Jets game. But that was the largest margin of victory in a game involving division opponents since 1992. The previous 24 games between division rivals were all settled by 20 points or less, with 11 of them decided by 10 or fewer points.

The Colts won comfortably—which wasn’t surprising—but the way they won was a shocker. The run defense (infamously awful in the regular season) treated Larry Johnson like Rocky’s punching bag. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis offense was unexpectedly pitiful. Peyton Manning and the offense usually play well in their first playoff game. Not this year. If not for Chiefs’ coach Herm Edwards’ refusal to change his offensive game plan, the Colts might have been knocked out last week.

The Giants and Eagles—NFC East division foes—played a tight contest, as expected. But it was still a strange game. The Giants had 2nd-and-30 late in the 4th quarter and yet scored the tying touchdown three plays later. Two drives before that, the Eagles started on the Giants’ 42 and yet had to punt. But the strangest part of this game was watching the Giants’ most mature leader on the field—Jeremy Shockey—try to take control of the game. There’s nothing stranger than the words “mature” and “leader” being used to describe Shockey. (By the way, can we call the Eli Manning Experience a failure yet? While his contemporaries are excelling, Manning seems to be getting worse. And how did Tom Coughlin keep his job? So many questions. So few answers.)

And then there was the game that everyone’s been talking about. Cowboys-Seahawks. The safety. The bizarre playcalling. The bobbled snap. It was all there for one of the all-time craziest NFL playoff games. One Cowboys fan described it to me this way: “Worst. Way. To. Lose. Ever.” As a lifelong Red Sox fan, I reminded him o####ame from October 1986 that ranks right up there. But I feel his pain. Add this to the list of heartbreakingly awful ways to lose.

I’ve been wracking my brain trying to come up with another sports scenario that would demonstrate how crazy of a way this was to lose. I came up with two from baseball that illustrate the contradiction between the ease of the play itself and the end result of Romo’s miscue. Up by one run, runners on 2nd and 3rd, and there’s an easy popup to the shortstop. The shortstop drops the ball and kicks it. Both runs score and his team loses. Or, same baserunning scenario, and the batter strikes out but the catcher drops the ball. He calmly picks it up, takes a step to his right to throw to first for the final out, and airmails it into right field.

I can’t emphasize enough how easy of a play this should have been. All Romo had to do was put the ball on the ground and the Cowboys would probably have won the game. Romo had already done the hard part—catch the snap. He just needed to place it on the ground, spin it, and put his finger on top of it. Placing it on the ground seems like the easiest part of the whole process, doesn’t it? The only other football play that seems easier than that would be the end of game kneeldown. Now that would be a way to lose. “Romo takes the snap, he takes a knee and the Cowboys-- Wait! He dropped the ball! The Seahawks pick it up and run all the way to the 15, the 10, the 5, touchdown!” Until that happens, Romo’s fumble will forever be the barometer for screwed up easy plays that cost the team the game.

So the Cowboys (my preseason Super Bowl pick) lost on one of the craziest plays ever, after a crazy season involving the craziest player in the NFL I didn’t really believe the Cowboys could go all the way at this point, but I stuck with my Super Bowl pick anyway. Sure, it sounded crazy, but crazy is as crazy does. I’m not even picking another NFC team to take their place at this point. The Ravens are my Super Bowl favorites now. And I don’t see any NFC team knocking off any of the potential AFC participants.

Meanwhile, we’ve got three superb games on tap for the weekend. The four best teams in the NFL go head-to-head (Chargers-Patriots and Ravens-Colts), and the two hottest teams in the NFC square off (Saints-Eagles). If there were ever a weekend to lock yourself indoors and watch 40 hours of football games, pregame shows, and highlights, this is the one. Of course, there’s still that other game (Bears-Seahawks). If you haven’t put the Christmas decorations away yet, or you want to go outside and enjoy the global warming, then I’d skip that one.

I’m trying not to let my 4-0 playoff record against the spread go to my head. I’m taking this one game at a time, playing within myself, giving 110%. I’ve broken down the game film, researched the stats, and am ready to make picks. I’ve had a good week of preparation, and am feeling good about the picks. Here’s the way I see this weekend’s games:

BALTIMORE (-4) over Indianapolis

I’m predicting the same score I did in my NFL Preview (when I had these two teams playing next week instead of this week). That was when I clued the world in on the fact that the Ravens would be the team to beat this year: “Defense is where this division will be won…Baltimore’s going to put it together this year, beat Pittsburgh twice, win the division, and keep the Steelers from the playoffs.” Check and check. I picture this one a 3-3 tie at the half, with Manning slowly getting more and more frustrated. Three Colts turnovers (and 0 by the Ravens) translate into a healthy win by the Ravens. As a matter of fact, this is my lock of the week.
Prediction: Ravens 27, Colts 10

NEW ORLEANS (-5) over Philadelphia

The two best teams in the NFC go head-to-head. The winner should be heading to the Super Bowl. This is the one I’ve been struggling with all week. The Eagles are a brand new team since McNabb went down. Head coach Andy Reid decided to have a more balanced offense instead of passing on two out of every three downs, probably because he was afraid of letting Jeff Garcia fling the ball around. So what happens? Garcia throws just 2 interceptions in seven games and Brian Westbrook turns into a verifiable rushing force. Meanwhile, NFL coach of the year Sean Payton has molded his Saints into a dangerous team. Plus they’ve had the bye to prepare for this one. This game’s going to be tight, with the Saints scoring a late touchdown and then stopping the Eagles on the final play of the game.
Prediction: Saints 31, Eagles 24

Seattle (+8½) over CHICAGO

One of these teams actually gets to play in the NFC Championship Game. Unbelievable. I was going to give this one the 12-9 final score treatment until I looked up my prediction for last year’s Bears playoff game and saw that I predicted 12-9 in that one (a 29-21 Carolina win). Let’s go back in time and read what I wrote before that game: “This is my hands-down, no-doubt-about-it, can’t-miss, money-in-the-bank, no-questions-asked lock of the week. The Panthers, having played the Bears once already this season, will not be surprised at the speed of the Bears’ linebackers. Chicago won’t end up with 8 sacks on Jake Delhomme as they did in the first meeting.” The Bears registered just one sack in that game. It’s still the same deal. Teams playing the Bears twice this year either did better (the Lions lost by 5 and the Packers won in their second meetings) or not much worse (the Vikings lost by 10 after losing the first game by 3). And all I have to say about Rex Grossman is this(from my recap of last year’s Bears’ playoff loss): “Did anyone outside of Chicago believe that Grossman was going to lead the Bears on a game-tying drive on either of the Bears’ last two possessions? For that matter, did anyone in Chicago believe it? Or anyone on the field?” The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Prediction: Seahawks 23, Bears 18

New England (+4½) over SAN DIEGO

Why do I feel so good about this pick? Is it Marty Schottenheimer’s dismal playoff record? Bill Belichick and Tom Brady’s amazing playoff success? This one could be an old-fashioned shootout, and the game of the weekend. LaDanian Tomlinson will get his yards. The Patriots will move the ball as well, thanks to their two-headed rushing attack. San Diego’s red zone offense against the Patriots’ red zone defense. Lots of scoring. Last team with the ball wins. And tell me—who would you trust more at the end of this game? Philip Rivers and Schottenheimer or Brady and Belichick? My money’s on New England.
Prediction: Patriots 34, Chargers 31

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Throwing Out More Thoughts on Sports, Life, and Whatnot

Sports history if full of icons who were smarter than everyone else around them. We call them geniuses, because they’re usually ahead of their time. They have unparalleled success and are talked about for decades to come. Vince Lombardi was one. Pete Rozelle was another. Bill Belichick is arguably a current example. The world lost one such icon last week: former Celtics president, general manager, and coach, Red Auerbach.

But then there are those who are born too late. Drew Bledsoe, for example. Had he been a quarterback in the ‘70s or early ‘80s, he would have been a no-doubt-about-it Hall of Famer, and he might have even won a championship or two. Instead, he’s a guy who threw for a ton of yards but never had the monstrous success that was expected of him. And because of his awful decision-making, he’s out of a job in Dallas. If the interception he threw before halftime of the Monday nighter against the Giants was the last pass Drew ever throws in the NFL, it’s a horrible way to end a career.

Back to the Celtics for a minute. Did Sebastian Telfair really shoot Fabolous? Did Paul Pierce miss a game because of a paper cut? Do most analysts truly think Boston could be one of the worst teams in the NBA this year? This would all be funny if I were making it all up. We miss you already, Red.

We’ve had 7 World Series winners in 7 years. So the national media has reached the conclusion that the age of parity in baseball has finally arrived. I’ve even read arguments that there is more parity in baseball than in the NFL. Heaven forbid anyone let facts get in the way o####ood argument. In the last 7 years, 4 baseball teams finished under .500 each year. Only 1 NFL team has made it 7 straight under .500—the Arizona Cardinals. 3 baseball teams won their division 5 or more times in the last 7 years. 0 NFL teams did that (even though the NFL now has 2 more divisions than baseball has). If this year’s baseball playoffs showed us anything, it’s that any team can win it all once they make the playoffs. And since the difference between the haves and the have nots is as wide as ever in baseball, there are teams with absolutely no chance, while other teams have an annual shot at the title. That’s not parity, my friends.

“By the way, watch out for the Bulls next year. This is a young team on the rise. They’ve got a who’s who of recent college studs—Ben Gordon, Kirk Hinrich, and Luol Deng—and are one solid move away from being dangerous. As a matter of fact, what the heck, I’ll predict they make it to the Eastern Conference Finals next year.” That’s what I wrote in May in my NBA and NHL Playoff Preview. Since then, the Bulls signed Ben Wallace and beat the defending champion Heat by 42 on opening night (in Miami). Hopefully, this makes up for my ridiculously bad baseball predictions.

Can someone explain just what the heck I watched at halftime of Monday Night Football last week? A race between people in giant costumes that resembled the ESPN crew? We’ve come a long way since Janet Jackson and Justin Timberlake, haven’t we?

Speaking of the new Monday Night Football, it’s not surprising that they’re getting the best ratings in the history of cable television. But what was surprising was what used to be the most-watched program in cable television history: The 1993 debate on the North American Free Trade Agreement between Vice President Al Gore and billionaire and two-time presidential candidate Ross Perot. I don’t even have a joke here.

Don’t forget to vote on Tuesday. And if you live in Connecticut, please vote against Joe Lieberman (I explained why in my last Cleaning Out the Fridge).

As a football fan, you couldn’t ask for anything better than this Sunday night’s Patriots-Colts match-up. As a Patriots fan—especially after last week’s throttling of the Vikings—the thought of knocking off the undefeated Colts and the undefeated Bears in the span of four weeks is off the charts.

I have to go back to the Miami Heat and their home opener. They raised their championship banner to the rafters and then got smoked by 42 points. And it wasn’t even that close. We were told it was the worst opening night loss for a defending NBA champion in history, but I’d argue it was the worst first game loss for a defending champion of any sport in the history of organized competition. Perhaps it was bad karma for choosing Bruce Springsteen’s The Rising as the song played during the banner raising. The Rising is an ode to those who died on September 11. Not exactly sports championship banner-raising material. What on Earth were they thinking?

After three years of eligibility, Van Halen was finally nominated for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. What was the holdup? Van Halen’s first five albums and tours made them one of the most successful bands of their time. Then came the album 1984, which produced four Top 40 hits and the chart-topping Jump. Only Michael Jackson’s Thriller (you’ve heard of that one, right?) was a bigger success that year. Their crossover from rock to pop and the brilliant use of music videos made Van Halen the most-copied band of the time. After David Lee Roth left, the band continued to have commercial success with Sammy Hagar at the helm. From 1986 to 1998, they picked up 11 #1s on Billboard Magazine’s Mainstream Rock Tracks chart. And they have to wait three years to even get a nomination to the Hall of Fame? The comparable sports comparison would be if George Brett, Ozzie Smith, or Dennis Eckersley retired and didn’t make the Hall of Fame in the first year of eligibility. It’s a crime

In games involving two teams who are currently 4-4 or better, AFC teams are 8-3 against the NFC. It’s another year in which the NFC is the JV to the AFC’s varsity.

Terry Bradshaw told ESPN radio’s Mike & Mike in the Morning the other day that the NFL is down in recent years because there “aren’t any stars” like there were when he played. First of all, I can’t understand how Terry still has a job after these comments. His comments were more offensive than Steve Lyons’s comments. Second, he’s completely wrong. Tiki Barber, Tom Brady, Reggie Bush, Peyton Manning, LaDainian Tomlinson, Brian Urlacher, Michael Vick—those are just a few names I came up with off the top of my head (and put in alphabetical order, of course). Third, Terry, I know you were the quarterback of 4 Super Bowl winners. No offense, though, but you weren’t exactly Joe Montana or Tom Brady. Finally, Terry, any time you want to switch jobs, I’m ready. I’ll watch football all day and get paid for it. And apparently I’d enjoy it more than you. 

Can we just skip the next three weeks of football? After this weekend’s action, everyone knows what is coming, right? The Patriots—left for dead earlier in the year—have reeled off three straight wins and completely dominated one of the NFC’s best teams on Saturday. The Colts—trying to make history with an undefeated season—lost for the first time this season. At home.

How quickly things change.

Now it comes down to Patriots vs. Colts. Again. The winner will be crowned Super Bowl champion. Sure, there’s the formality of a few other games, but that game will decide it all.

For the last few years, the Patriots and the Colts have been like two boxers, eyeing each other from afar. Win a game, check to see how the other guy did. Face off in the regular season, meet again in the playoffs. The Patriots had gotten the better of the Colts in their four previous meetings and were back-to-back Super Bowl champions.

This year seemed different. The Patriots—handed one of the toughest six-game stretches in the history of the NFL—struggled to a 3-3 start. Injuries mounted and forced the team to use whomever they could find in the defensive backfield. At one point, I believe owner Robert Kraft considered fan upgrade night. If your seat number was called, you’d get to start at cornerback. Mercifully, it never came to that.

Meanwhile the Colts, armed with one of the softest opening schedules ever, marched to a 7-0 start. They even had their bye week before the New England game. You can’t have a league of parity if the same team keeps winning the Super Bowl. The time was ripe for a changing of the guard, and the NFL schedule seemed to provide evidence that the NFL wanted it that way. One of the most exciting offenses, and one of the most charismatic superstars (Peyton Manning), would rule the National Football League this year.

The plan was working perfectly. The Colts trounced the Patriots—in New England—on Monday Night Football. It was the highest rated MNF game in five years. Indianapolis continued to win every game, sparking talk of an undefeated season and an unstoppable run to the Super Bowl. Their next appearance on Monday Night Football (against the Steelers) produced even higher ratings. The ’72 Dolphins—the NFL’s last undefeated team—were preparing their concession speeches. All the while, the Patriots continued to struggle, winning one then losing one, on the road to a sub-par season.

Then Saturday came. The Patriots were as healthy as they’d been all year, and the team was finally starting to gel. They were coming off two impressive wins—albeit against the lowly Jets and Bills. Tampa Bay—at 9-4 and in first place in the NFC South—would be a true test for this team.

The result? A dominating effort on both sides of the ball. All of a sudden, the Champs had their swagger back. They clinched the AFC East title with this win, and could start preparing for the playoffs. With a 9-5 record, they can now finish no better than the #4 seed in the AFC. This means one home playoff game (likely against Jacksonville—who struggled to beat 2-12 San Francisco yesterday) and a trip to Indianapolis in Week 2 of the playoffs (barring an upset in the AFC’s other Week 1 playoff game).

On Sunday, after telling the world that no one would be resting, that the Colts intended to play their starters the entire game, the Colts were beaten at home by San Diego. If not for two key defensive plays by the Colts and the Chargers’ offensive ineptitude, this one wouldn’t have even been close. A chink in the armor, just one day after the reigning king had made a bold statement.

Do you think any of the Colts players felt it? Do you think anyone came into the locker room on Sunday buzzing about the Patriots’ performance the day before? Even if unspoken, it certainly was on their minds. As much as the win in New England earlier this year inspired confidence in Peyton Manning’s psyche, this weekend’s events surely sent him back to the the####’s office. Just when he’d finally gotten the “Can’t win the big games” #### off his back and was leading his team to a coronation, his nemesis rose up from the ashes.

So here we are, playing out the string. The Colts and Patriots have two meaningless games on their schedules. The Patriots likely have one playoff tune-up before they take on the Colts. Until this weekend, only diehard Patriots fans thought New England had a shot against Indy. But now? The bandwagon is crowded with converts.

This is by far the best Colts team of Manning’s tenure. They’ve won games 10-3 and 45-37. Up until yesterday they’d done whatever it took to win. Rather than attempting to set records, as he did last year, Manning took a backseat to the running game and an improved defense whenever possible. Heck, he didn’t even throw for 300 yards until Week 9—against New England.

But after all of the injuries, and the adjustments to two new coordinators after Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel left in the offseason, the Patriots now look like a Super Bowl contender. Once more. This team may not be as dominant as the last two championship editions, but they sure look as good, if not better, than the 2001 team that beat St. Louis—then the greatest show on turf—in Super Bowl XXXVI. That team had Ty Law, but no Corey Dillon. Troy Brown and David Patten were the leading receivers. Deion Branch and David Givens lead the brigade now. Richard Seymour has gone from rookie sensation to a Pro Bowl-caliber force on defense. Willie McGinest seems to have taken a drink from the fountain of youth, and Tedy Bruschi has gone from stroke survivor to field general of the defense.

And, of course, Tom Brady has four more seasons, three Super Bowl wins, and two Super Bowl MVPs under his belt.

Make your plans now. Patriots-Colts. Round III is coming.

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