Why do we like to make predictions? Everyone does it. And usually no one’s good at it. Sure, we have our moments. Like last year I correctly predicted that San Diego would win 11 games, Seattle would win 10, Tampa Bay would win 9, Buffalo would win 7, and the Patriots would advance to the Super Bowl. Of course I also predicted Green Bay would win 6 (they won 13), Baltimore would win 12 (they won 5), and the Pats would win the Super Bowl, beating New Orleans (who missed the playoffs at 7-9).
But we’ll give it another go this year. As I look ahead to this NFL season, I’ve decided that there are only five types of NFL teams as we head into each season: The Super Bowl Contenders, the Tragically Flawed Teams, the Teams on the Rise, the Teams on the Decline, and the Teams Already on the Clock (for a top 5 draft pick in 2009).
Let’s take a look at each category:
Teams Already on the Clock (for a top 5 draft pick in 2009)
Atlanta Rookie Matt Ryan will be the starting quarterback for the Falcons from day 1. Do I have to say any more?
Oakland The more things change in Oak-town, the more they stay the same. With glaring needs up and down the roster, the Raiders—who had the 6th-best rushing attack in football last season—selected a running back as their first draft pick. They might challenge once again for the league rushing title, but not much else will improve this year.
Kansas City Can two of the worst teams in the league really reside in the same division? Yes, they can. The Raiders-Chiefs match-up on November 30 might be for next year’s #1 draft pick.
Chicago Back in college my buddies and I got so good at Nintendo’s Tecmo Super Bowl—the last great pre-Madden video game—that we needed to challenge ourselves when playing the game. The game was based on the 1990 season, and the New York Giants were so good you could practically win with your eyes closed. So we’d use the Giants and try to win with just their defense, punting every time we were on offense. You could customarily win 10 games this way. This scenario is very much like the 2008 Chicago Bears—except for the 10 wins part. The Bears have a “revamped” offense that will consist of quarterback Kyle Orton (who threw 80 passes last year), rookie running back Matt Forte, and the untested Devin Hester at wide receiver. And, unfortunately for the Bears, the defense does not resemble the Tecmo Super Bowl Giants.
Cincinnati The inmates are running the asylum. When wide receiver Chris Henry was re-signed following the record-breaking 1,000th Bengals arrest in 1,000 days, it was just another signal that the Bengals still have no direction. Then wide receiver Chad Johnson officially changed his name to Chad Ocho Cinco, so that he could put that on the back of his jersey and not get fined. Things are going really well in Cincinnati.
Teams on the Decline
Baltimore After the Ravens won just 5 games last year, the former genius named Brian Billick was politely asked to leave and join the Coors Light cast of former coaches. Things weren’t looking up in Baltimore even they lost Kyle Boller for the season.
Denver The bloom might finally be off the rose of another genius: Mike Shanahan.
Buffalo I don’t like what I see in Buffalo. They’re focusing on the defense, but—like the Bears—their offense is so bad it just won’t matter. Last year the Bills’ offense was 30th in the league and their defense was 31st. Even if they improve one of those numbers a little it doesn’t move them up the win chart very far. I’m still trying to figure out how they won 7 games last year.
Washington Maybe it’s the yellow shoes. Or the way they got manhandled by the Giants. Or the way Jim Zorn slept-walk through coaching his first NFL game on Thursday. Or the fact that quarterback Jason Campbell is working under his 100th different offensive system since pee wee football. One of these reasons explains why the Redskins will not be good this year.
Tennessee I’m not buying what Tennessee is selling. The defense is good, the rushing offense is good, but Vince Young scares me and the Colts and Jaguars are far superior to the Titans.
Detroit Jon Kitna is still the quarterback, they have rookies all over the place, and it will be at least one more year before Detroit can turn things around.
Seattle I feel the same way about the Seahawks that I felt about the Bears last season. Everyone looked at the Bears and said, “Well, they’ve done it the last two seasons and no one else in their division is ready to step up.” I bought into the hype and penciled the Bears in for 12 wins. So what happened? The Bears went 7-9 and Green Bay stepped up and won the division. I don’t have a good feeling about the Seahawks this year, so I’m going with that feeling this time.
Green Bay They drove an icon out of town. A bad start is going to mean boos raining down on head coach Mike McCarthy’s and quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ heads. Can this team weather the kind of firestorm that developed in the offseason?
Teams on the Rise
Miami With just one win last season, the Dolphins have to be on the rise, don’t they? With Bill Parcells at the helm, the Fish are moving in the right direction, and Chad Pennington has to be worth a win or two.
Houston The Texans won a franchise-best 8 games last year, and head coach Gary Kubiak has them headed in the right direction. They might not be ready to challenge Indianapolis and Jacksonville for the top of their division, but they might challenge Tennessee for 3rd place and could even end up with their first-ever winning season.
Carolina Quarterback Jake Delhomme is healthy and head coach John Fox customarily gets more out of his teams than many other head coaches. The Panthers turn things around this year and challenge the Saints for South supremacy.
Arizona San Francisco St. Louis One of these three teams has to rise up and challenge Seattle. Right? The Seahawks have won their division four years in a row. During that stretch only New England and Indianapolis have won their divisions every year. The Seahawks? Enough is enough. All I have to say is [using Chris Berman’s voice], “Come on Arizona, San Francisco, and St. Louis!”
Tragically Flawed
NY Jets The good news for the Jets is that they picked up Brett Favre. The bad news for the Jets is that they picked up Brett Favre. Even during Green Bay’s magical run last year, you just had that feeling that the bad Brett Favre was itching to bubble to the top. And then, in overtime of the NFC title game, there it was—the fateful interception we’d all been waiting for. Favre will be worth an extra regular season win or two (plus all of the moves the Jets made in the offseason will net another win or two) but somewhere along the line, the gunslinging Favre will end the Jets’ season early.
Tampa Bay Super Bowl XLIII will be played in Raymond James Stadium, home of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. No team has ever advanced to a Super Bowl played in their home stadium.
New Orleans I like the Saints. I really do. And I thought they were making all the right moves this offseason. Until they picked up Jeremy Shockey. Shockey is a quality player and brings a unique toughness to the tight end position. But not the clubhouse kind of guy that brings a team together. You want some evidence? Try last year’s Giants—who went on a run that culminated in a Super Bowl championship. After Shockey got hurt. I’m just saying.
San Diego By all accounts Chargers head coach Norv Turner is a nice guy and a decent coach. But how many decent coaches win the Super Bowl? You have to go back to the ’95 Cowboys with Barry Switzer before you find a Super Bowl-winning coach that could be described by words less exemplary than “really good.” And as for nice guys winning it all, consider this: The last eight Super Bowls were won by guys named Tom Coughlin, Tony Dungy, Bill Cowher, Bill Belichick, Jon Gruden, and Brian Billick. Or—putting it another way—Tony Dungy and five guys I wouldn’t want as my best friend. As my head coach? Definitely. You want some combination of smart, fiery, win-at-all-costs, and single-minded about football—but not nice or decent.
Dallas Something’s wrong in Big D. How else to explain their inexplicable loss by one point two seasons ago on a botched extra point attempt? Or last year’s collapse to the division-rival G-Men? I can’t put my finger on it, but something in this team’s makeup is not working. And it isn’t just the insane social experiment they are trying with the likes of Terrell Owens, Pacman Jones, and Tank Johnson. Something is off in Dallas. They might win their first playoff game in 12 years, but win the whole thing? I just can’t see it happening.
Super Bowl Contenders
By my count there are eight teams with a legitimate chance to win the Super Bowl this year.
Cleveland Cleveland? Yes, Cleveland. Think about this: The last eight Super Bowl Champions have either been defense-only squads, teams with a solid defense that complimented their offense, or teams that got hot defensively at the right time (including the ’06 Colts who allowed 31 points in three of their playoff games, and held the Patriots to two field goals in the pivotal 4th quarter of the AFC Championship Game). Defense wins championships and defensive-minded coaches—like Romeo Crennel, the architect of the Patriots’ defense during their three Super Bowl wins—is a defensive guy. Plus Cleveland is mortgaging the future to win now.
NY Giants Could the Giants possibly do it again? This team is built on solid defense, an impressive running game, and Coughlin’s coaching. If Eli Manning can remain the playoff quarterback we saw last year—who knows? If the Giants make the playoffs again, no one’s going to want them on their schedule.
Pittsburgh I love Mike Tomlin. Ben Roethlisberger is putting it all together (and is healthy). And the Steelers are yet another defense-first type team. They went 10-6 last year and have (on paper) the toughest schedule this year, with eight games against 2007 playoff teams. I could see the Steelers just barely making the playoffs but then putting together a playoff similar to the one they put together three years ago or the Giants did last year.
Indianapolis Remember how the Colts won Super Bowl XLI (see the Cleveland entry above)? Solid coaching, Hall of fame quarterback, and a defense that finally put it together. Last year the Colts had the 3rd-best defense in football. All the ingredients are there for the Colts.
Philadelphia When Donovan McNabb is healthy, the Eagles soar. (Wow. Bad pun.) They have a solid running game and are stout defensively. They went 8-8 in a division that produced three playoff teams last year. This team is primed for another run at the title.
Jacksonville As a Patriots fan, if there’s one team in the AFC that scares me to death it’s the Jaguars. David Garrard is a question mark, but this Florida team is built to play in cold weather games, as evidenced by their 2nd-best rushing attack last year and playoff win in Pittsburgh. Their two nemeses are the Colts (they’ve lost 5 out of their last 6 games against Indianapolis) and the Patriots (their last two playoff runs ended at the hands of New England). The Jaguars are going to be a dangerous team once again this year, and the Colts and the Patriots are in their cross-hairs.
Minnesota Everyone’s high on the Vikings, and with good reason. The team finished with the best rushing attack and the best rushing defense in the NFL, then made huge moves in the offseason to add Jared Allen (15½ sacks, most in the NFL last year), wide receiver Bernard Berrian (951 yards receiving), and free safety Madieu Williams. Tarvaris Jackson is a question mark at quarterback, but if all-world running back Adrian Peterson continues to make Jackson’s life easier and the defense plays the way they are expected to, it’s going to be a huge year in Minnesota.
New England The United States Olympic basketball team received the name “Redeem Team,” so the Patriots will need another moniker. Only in the NFL can a team lose just one game over the course of six months and walk away unfulfilled. But that’s where the Patriots stand as they enter the 2008 season. The first undefeated season since 1972 is a long way in the rearview mirror after their stunning loss to the Giants in the Super Bowl. The Patriots are the odds on favorites to win the Super Bowl and have to be wiser than they were last year. Following the Spygate scandal in Week 1 last year, the goal was to win—and win big. This year the goal will be to win as many as they can, but to enter the playoffs prepared, healthy, and on a roll. They have the team and the coaching staff to do it.
Predicted Finish
AFC EastAFC NorthAFC SouthAFC West
New England 14-2
Cleveland 10-6
Indianapolis 11-5
San Diego 12-4
NY Jets 10-6
Pittsburgh 10-6
Jacksonville 11-5
Denver 6-10
Buffalo 6-10
Baltimore 5-11
Houston 9-7
Oakland 4-12
Miami 5-11
Cincinnati 5-11
Tennessee 7-9
Kansas City 2-14
NFC EastNFC NorthNFC SouthNFC West
Dallas 12-4
Minnesota 12-4
New Orleans 10-6
Arizona 10-6
Philadelphia 11-5
Green Bay 9-7
Carolina 9-7
St. Louis 8-8
NY Giants 10-6
Detroit 6-10
Tampa Bay 7-9
Seattle 7-9
Washington 6-10
Chicago 5-11
Atlanta 1-15
San Francisco 6-10
AFC Championship Game
New England over Jacksonville
NFC Championship Game
Minnesota over Philadelphia
Super Bowl XLIII
New England over Minnesota
NFL Week 1 Picks
Cincinnati (-1½) over BALTIMORE
Detroit (-3) over ATLANTA
PITTSBURGH (-6½) over Houston
TENNESSEE (+3) over Jacksonville
NEW ENGLAND (-15½) over Kansas City
NY Jets (-3) over MIAMI
BUFFALO (-1) over Seattle
PHILADELPHIA (-7½) over St. Louis
NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Tampa Bay
Arizona (-2½) over SAN FRANCISCO
Carolina (+9) over SAN DIEGO
CLEVELAND (+5½) over Dallas
INDIANAPOLIS (-9½) over Chicago
Minnesota (+2½) over GREEN BAY
As matchbox twenty sings, “Let’s see how far we’ve come.”
Eighteen weeks after the 2007 season began, we’ve got an AFC Championship match-up that seemed plausible prior to the season, and an NFC match-up that no one saw coming back in August.
The road to Super Bowl XLII has been long and winding. With just one Sunday of football remaining before the hype truly begins, let’s take a look at what we’ve learned during this NFL season and postseason.
Jacksonville’s in the wrong division Heck, they might even be in the wrong conference. They’ve lost five out of six to Indianapolis, leaving them without the opportunity to win their division year after year. This means a Wild Card spot at best and no real chance to make it to the Super Bowl. If they were in the NFC they might just be a perennial powerhouse.
This is a shame for the Jaguars, because they showed last week just how good they can be in their battle royale with the undefeated Patriots. It might have been the last tough game the Patriots have this year to tell you the truth. But the Jags still lost, and if they don’t find a way to get past the Colts (or get switched to a different division) painful road playoff losses remain in the Jaguars’ future.
The NFC is a crapshoot Seven different teams have won an NFC division in the last two years. Only Seattle repeated as division champion this year. In the AFC, three of the four division champions repeated, with New England and Indianapolis winning their divisions for five straight years. If I needed to do my NFL 2008 preview right now, I’d go with New England, Indianapolis, and San Diego to repeat again, and Cleveland to get over the hump. And in the NFC? Who knows? How about Arizona, Washington, Detroit, and Atlanta?
Offense is in It wasn’t just Tom Brady and Randy Moss and their record-setting seasons. Scoring was up across the board and there was no defense that stood out like in seasons past. The last Super Bowl champion that rode their offense to the title was the ’99 Rams (and that team actually gave up just 22 points over their final two games). The last seven champions held their first playoff opponent under 20 points, and all but the ’04 Patriots held their first two playoff opponents under 20 points. This week’s favorites to make the Super Bowl, the Patriots and Packers, each gave up 20 points in their first playoff games (and scored 31 and 42, respectively). This season, and playoffs, is all about the offense.
Resting players = losing playoff recipe Tampa Bay rested their players for an unprecedented two straight weeks then lost at home to the Giants. The Cowboys and Colts both rested players prior to their bye week and both lost at home. Meanwhile, the Giants and Patriots battled to the death prior to the playoffs with nothing to gain and each stands one game from the Super Bowl. It’s a trend to keep an eye on for future postseasons.
Maybe it’s the Chargers who are the problem After the Chargers questioned the Patriots’ class after last year’s playoff tussle (Public Enemy #1) I started to wonder if what the players were saying was true. But then I watched the Chargers jaw with the Broncos. And the Titans. And the Colts’ fans. And I thought, “maybe it’s the Chargers who have no class.” I’m just saying…
It’s a good thing Peyton won a ring last year Watching the Colts blow another playoff game at home last week made me even angrier that the Patriots lost to them last year. But the perfect season wouldn’t have happened without that loss (more on that in a moment), so I guess in retrospect it was a good thing. For both the Patriots and Peyton Manning. The Colts won the Super Bowl, did it by going through the Patriots, and Peyton got his ring.
By the way he and his teammates played last week leads me to believe it might be his only ring. His best receiver was barely able to take the field (and then he fumbled when he did) and the offense’s play-calling was awful while the execution was even worse. Last year just might have been it for the Colts.
Yes, everyone, I’m sorry, but the Patriots are this good It took the perfect storm of events to produce the first 17-0 team since the ’72 Dolphins. But that storm arrived. One year ago this weekend the first brick in the foundation was laid, as the Patriots’ offense couldn’t catch a key pass to win the game and the aging defense ran out of gas against the Colts. Then Belichick had to coach the Pro Bowl and I believe he secretly vowed to never be there again. New England loaded up with three wide receivers and the best defensive free agent on the market. Finally, “spygate” occurred, galvanized the team, and the rest is history.
I think Belichick’s defensive game plan for the last six weeks has been to play as vanilla as possible until the second half. If the game’s been close, he releases the hounds. Meanwhile, the offense continues to be a nearly unstoppable machine. It’s reached the point in which the first opponent’s turnover or punt signals that the game is officially over.
Championship Weekend Picks
San Diego (+14½) over New England I’ve incorrectly picked the Patriots’ games against the spread in each of the last four weeks, so I’ll go opposite what I really think will happen in this one and say the Chargers somehow cover the spread. They barely won in Indy, flew back to San Diego, flew across the country again with one fewer day off than the undefeated Patriots, they have a gimpy quarterback, running back, and tight end, the Patriots are clicking on all cylinders, and it’s going to be 12 degrees. It all spells blowout to me. But they’ll probably score a late touchdown to cover the spread, just because I keep getting it wrong. Prediction: Patriots 34, Chargers 20
Green Bay (-7) over New York Giants I think the Giants finally run out of steam this week. The Packers have been lighting it up, and were most impressive after falling behind 14-0 last week. On a slow track like Lambeau in the winter, their defense plays really fast, and Favre has reinvented himself in the twilight of his career. This one will probably be close until late in the game as the Pack pulls away. Prediction: Packers 30, Giants 21
3rd-6, PIT26 2:56 B. Roethlisberger rushed to the left for 1 yard gain
One play shouldn’t define a game or a season, but more often than not one play from a playoff game stands out. Last week it was Ben Roethlisberger’s failed 3rd-and-6 bootleg. The Steelers punted, the Jaguars drove to the 7-yard line, kicked a field goal, and won the game.
That one play stands out more than any other play in the game. More than David Garrard’s 4th down run that kept the Jaguars’ drive alive. More than the Steelers’ failed two-point conversion attempt from the 12-yard line.
Why the 3rd down run by Roethlisberger? Because it showed such a clear misunderstanding of what was needed.
Let’s start with the first 2-point try. The Steelers had just scored to cut the lead to 28-23 with 14 minutes left in the game. Sure, 14 minutes is a lot of time, but two drives earlier the Jaguars had held the ball for almost five minutes and scored a touchdown. Time was indeed running out on the Steelers, and two points was going to get them within a field goal (instead of a touchdown) and increase their chances of winning the game. Even after a (phantom) holding penalty pushed the Steelers back to the 12-yard line, I have no issues with the Steelers going for two there. It showed that they were willing to do whatever they needed to do to win the game.
On the other hand, a Roethlisberger designed rollout/run on 3rd-and-6? That has “I’m so afraid of a turnover that I don’t even want my quarterback to attempt to give the ball to anyone else on the team for fear that something bad will happen” written all over it. That’s the mentality that losing teams have, not a team with a chance to win a playoff game.
That 3rd down play was the culmination o####ame in which the only times the Steelers scored were when they played aggressively. The Steelers opened the game with six straight pass plays (and ended up scoring a touchdown), and Roethlisberger threw on seven consecutive downs at one point in the game. Granted he had three interceptions in the 1st half. But when the chips were down and they needed yards, Big Ben gave them yards.
To take the lead and then go ultra-conservative was inviting trouble. And trouble came a-knocking in the form of David Garrad’s 4th down scramble. That was a designed run out of the shotgun by a guy that can run, and was coach Jack Del Rio’s way of saying, “we are not losing this game.”
A lesson Steelers’ head coach Mike Tomlin needs to learn. NFL Playoffs Round 2 Selections
It was a 2-2 week against the spread last week (and an abysmal 1-3 straight up). Two underdogs covered, as I predicted. Just not the ones I picked. (The story of my season this year.)
As we head into Round 2, you’ll hear a lot of people talking about how the top four teams rarely all make it to the Championship round. But it has happened twice in the last four years, and it seems likely to happen again this year.
Forget the fact that the four teams with byes are clearly the four best teams in the NFL and they’ve all had a week off to prepare. Just look at the eight teams that played last week for a moment. The Steelers blew their game at home but the team that beat them tried to give the game away in the 4th quarter, allowing 19 points in 8 minutes and 32 seconds. The Titans’ game plan was apparently to try and lull the Chargers to sleep, which almost worked, except for the Chargers’ game plan of doing their best Marty Schottenheimer impression until the 2nd half. (Which reminds me: Everyone who says that this season was more successful under Norv Turner than last season under Schottenheimer just because the Chargers won a playoff game is delusional. The Chargers went 14-2 last year and had a bye in the first round. Basically, this season as of right now is still not better than last year because San Diego must go on the road for their next playoff game. If the Chargers pull off the upset this week in Indianapolis, then we can talk.)
The Redskins played their sixth straight game on pure emotion while the Seahawks played some of the worst football known to man for 52 minutes and then played well for a grand total of 5 minutes, enough time to score 22 fourth quarter points, with 14 coming on interception returns for touchdowns. And Tampa Bay spent three weeks resting players and preparing for the Giants and then came out with the worst game plan in history, while the Giants’ game plan was to keep Eli Manning on a tight leash (20-27, 185 yards) and hope the defense (1 sack, 3 turnovers) could win the game.
My point? Could any one of those eight teams have beaten any of the four teams on a bye? I say no. I think all four home teams win this weekend, with only the Giants coming close and covering the spread.
Green Bay (-7½) over Seattle A rematch of the fantastic 2004 playoff game in which Matt Hasselbeck declared—after the Seahawks won the coin toss in over time—“we’ll take the ball and we’re going to score!” And then he threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown. I’ll tell you what I’m tired of hearing about: Playoff experience (the Packers have little, the Seahawks have a lot). In Joe Montana’s 13 non-Super Bowl championship seasons, did the 49ers lose because the other team had more playoff experience, or was the other team just better sometimes? Something to think about, because the Packers are the better team. By far. Pick: Packers 30, Seahawks 13
New England (-13) over Jacksonville Can everyone please just stop with propping up the Jaguars as world beaters? They played a very solid first half against the Steelers last week and then came through when they needed to in the 4th quarter. But their quarterback completed just 9 passes for the entire game. I just don’t see it. The Patriots are rested and ready for the first time in a month. They haven’t had an opportunity to run up the score on an opponent in eight weeks. I don’t think this one will even be close. Pick: Patriots 42, Jaguars 16
Indianapolis (-9) over San Diego I thought that the spread on this one was too high until I remembered how bad the Chargers looked last week. The same Titans team that the Colts almost beat with their backups had the Chargers dead to rights with about 20 minutes left in the game. The Titans led 6-3 and the Chargers had a 3rd-and-4. Rivers completed a pass to Tomlinson for a 1st down and San Diego eventually pulled away. This same Chargers team—without tight end Antonio Gates—is supposed to travel across the country and beat a rested Colts team in the dome? Pick: Colts 34, Chargers 17
NY Giants (+7½) over Dallas With the Jessica Simpson distraction looming over the Cowboys’ heads, there’s no way their focus is there for this game. (Just kidding. That might have been the most ridiculous “controversy” in the history of controversies.) Terrell Owens is hurt, the Cowboys have not played well the last few weeks of the season, and this Giants team is apparently better than I’ve given them credit for, especially defensively. The Giants bring enough pressure to disrupt the Cowboys’ offense, and save for one bad 4th quarter pass against the Patriots, Eli Manning has played very well the last two weeks. Plus this will be the third time the Cowboys and Giants play each other this year, and five of the last six playoff games between division foes has been decided by two touchdowns or less. I have a funny feeling that the Giants will keep this one close, but I just can’t see the Cowboys losing this one. Pick: Cowboys 27, Giants 24
If the four favorites win, we’ll have the best final four since the ’98 season when the 15-1 Vikings took on the 14-2 Falcons and the 14-2 Broncos played the 12-4 Jets. The Vikings had set all of the offensive records but fell to the surprising Falcons in overtime, while the Parcells-coached Jets led 10-0 late in the 3rd quarter before the Broncos stormed back for a 23-10 win.
And if it’s Patriots-Colts and Cowboys-Packers, settle in for one of the best Championship Sundays in a long time.
Last year, the Christmas weekend was interrupted by the NFL. With Christmas Eve on Sunday, there was no time for caroling, sleigh rides, or any of the other traditional fare. No, I had to sit inside and watch football all day. Thanks a lot, NFL.
It’s a little better this year, as Sunday is the 23rd of December. But I must have missed the memo that said it was OK to have a sporting event on at night on Christmas Eve. That’s right, Monday Night Football brings you Denver at San Diego, just a few hours before Santa arrives on the East Coast. Apparently nothing is sacred anymore.
Looks like I’ll need to have all of the gifts wrapped and under the tree by kickoff Saturday night (why yes, Virginia, there’s also a Saturday night game this week). And then it’s wall-to-wall football through Monday night.
Pittsburgh at St. Louis On the first day of Christmas, my true love gave to me, a Steelers team that’s suddenly lost two in a row against a Rams team whose three wins have come against San Francisco, Atlanta, and (inexplicably) New Orleans. My only hope for this game is that Bryant Gumble is once again absent and Tom Hammond replaces him for the second week in a row. Hammond was a breath of fresh air last week compared to the dreary Gumble. (Is he getting paid for the NFL Network gig? He sounds as if he’s doing the play-by-play of a bad golf tournament.)
Pick: Pittsburgh (-7½)
Dallas at Carolina You’ve got to love Terrell Owens: “Right now, Jessica Simpson is not a fan favorite in this locker room or in Texas Stadium. I think with everything that has happened, and obviously the way Tony played and the comparison between her and Carrie Underwood, I think a lot of people feel like she's probably taking his focus away. Other than that, she was at the top of my list until last week.” Apparently he was kidding about quarterback Tony Romo’s current and former girlfriends, but he sure sounds like the kind of guy you want on your team, doesn’t he? Pick: Dallas (-10½)
Cleveland at Cincinnati Oh the weather outside is frightful… How much fun was that Cleveland-Buffalo game last week? Talk about a whiteout. Rain or snow showers expected for this one, but the temps look to be too high for another blizzard game. Maybe we’ll have better luck in the Buffalo game, since it snows in Buffalo 287 days per year on average. Pick: Cincinnati (+3)
Green Bay at Chicago Last week I told you not trust anyone who says, “This team has nothing to play for” when making picks. Five of the eight teams who had playoff aspirations and were playing sub-.500 teams did not cover the spread (and two lost outright). This week there are 10 games that fall into this category (including this one). I’m going with four of the underdogs, although there will probably be more that cover. The trick, as always, is finding the right ones (and I went just 3-5 picking these types of games last week). Pick: Chicago (+8½)
Houston at Indianapolis It’s time once again for the Colts to enjoy their late season struggles. They barely beat Oakland last week and Jacksonville two weeks before that. A similar thing happened to them last year. Of course, they did win the Super Bowl last year. Pick: Houston (+7)
Kansas City at Detroit (-4½)
Do you realize that since October 18, Boston’s big three sports teams (the Red Sox, Patriots, and Celtics) are a combined 36- 3 with a World Series title, the best record in the NBA, and the potential for an historic undefeated season in the NFL? How can I focus on Kansas City-Detroit when those kinds of numbers are out there? Pick: Detroit (-5)
NY Giants at Buffalo Apparently Santa decided to put coal under the Giants’ tree. Brutal loss to Philly last week. Injury to Shockey. And the Patriots on the schedule next week. This team is some lake effect snow away from missing the playoffs. Pick: Buffalo (+3)
Oakland at Jacksonville Jaguars running back Fred Taylor is 40 yards away from rushing for the 17th most yards in NFL history. Yet he has never been selected to play in the Pro Bowl. Think about that for a minute. Baseball analogies include Alex Rodriguez (17th on the all-time home run list), Ken Griffey (20th on the all-time RBI list), Tom Glavine (21st on the all-time wins list), or John Smoltz (16th on the all-time strikeouts list) having never played in an All-Star Game. (And yes, baseball is on my mind at the moment but I’m completely ignoring the steroids thing for now.) Pick: Jacksonville (-13)
Philadelphia at New Orleans This year isn’t very much fun for the playoff possibilities is it? Last year at this time every team in the NFC was still alive for a playoff spot. I think even Ohio State could have made the NFC playoffs last season. This year? Five teams are fighting for the final two NFC playoff spots and four teams are in the hunt for the final three spots in the AFC. Booooorrrrrinnnng. Pick: Philadelphia (+3)
Atlanta at Arizona Bill Parcells continues to make life interesting, doesn’t he? Another round of playing two teams against each other and he ends up taking the job in Miami. I have three thoughts on the matter: 1) This should make the AFC East even more fun next year, with Belichick in a battle of wills with both Parcells and Mangini while the Bills remain the second best team in the division; 2) Love him or hate him, you have to respect that Bill Parcells chose two NFL franchises—the Falcons and Dolphins—that are in the most disarray to target for his next job; 3) Has anyone had a worse year than Falcons owner Arthur Blank? Between the Michael Vick saga, his head coach slinking off in the middle of the night, and now Parcells, don’t be surprised if Blank never believes a word anyone says to him every again. “Your car will be ready at 3pm, Mr. Blank.” “Liar! You’ve sold my car to someone else and are leaving me with a used ’79 Pinto aren’t you?!?!” Pick: Arizona (-10)
Tampa Bay at San Francisco Patriots fans should continue to root against the 49ers, as New England owns the 49ers’ 1st round draft pick next year. For those of you that dislike the Patriots, you should be rooting for San Francisco. Who says no one cares about this game?
Pick: Tampa Bay (-6½)
Baltimore at Seattle I have to confess something. About 10 years ago I vowed never to go to the mall on the weekend during Christmastime. I kept that vow until last Friday night. To my surprise, it wasn’t that crowded. I don’t know, maybe this Internet thing is really going to take off. Pick: Seattle (-10½)
Miami at New England I’d like to thank the NFL for moving this game to 4:15, at the same time as Jets-Titans. I’ll be deep in the heart of Jets country (Western Connecticut) on Sunday, seeking out a sports bar that’s not filled with Jets fans. 95% of the country will receive Patriots-Dolphins, but not where I’ll be. Thanks, NFL! Thanks, WFSB Channel 3 in Connecticut! Pick: New England (-22)
NY Jets at Tennessee And here’s the game that’s making December 23rd more difficult for me! At least I have this tidbit to look forward to: The last four teams that have played the Patriots have gone 0-4 the next week and have lost by the cumulative score of 137-80. It takes a lot out of you to gear up for the Patriots. Pick: Tennessee (-8½)
Washington at Minnesota The game with the most playoff implications happens during NBC’s Flex Game on Sunday Night Football. The Vikings win, the Redskins cannot make the playoffs. The Redskins win, and we’ve got some drama going into Week 17. Pick: Minnesota (-6½)
Denver at San Diego A yule log on the fire. The presents all wrapped and under the tree. The children all snug in their beds. The Missus in her 'kerchief, and I in my cap, settle down for a little Broncos-Chargers. And the hope that Saint Nicholas soon will be here. Pick: Denver (+8½)
A Merry Christmas to all! And to all a good night!
Mitch Albom had his Tuesdays with Morrie. The Missus and I have our Sundays with Andrew Siciliano.
Let’s start at the beginning, shall we? Back in 2001 we switched from cable to DirecTV. Why? The cost savings was the number one reason. But a close second was a little something called the NFL Sunday Ticket. This package allowed me to watch every single NFL game that’s on every single weekend. No longer did I have to scan the TV listings each week only to be disappointed that I would have to suffer through a game between two crappy teams while the game of the day was being shown in someone else’s house. No, now I had the power.
For six NFL seasons I reveled each Sunday with the NFL package. Feet up, clicker in hand, I was able to flip from game to game, catching all of the NFL action known to man. Then we got HD. And I didn’t think life could get any better.
Until we met Andrew.
I was a little leery at first of this creation that DirecTV calls the Red Zone Channel. The stated purposed was to show any game—live—once one team entered the red zone (inside their opponents’ 20-yard line). I thought, “There’s no way this will be better than flipping around.” And, “How on earth could they pull this off?”
Shocking but true, they do pull it off. And I haven’t watched a full non-Patriots Sunday afternoon game since.
Who is Andrew, you ask? That would be Andrew Siciliano, the host of the Red Zone Channel. Andrew sits at a desk staring at a bank of 15 television screens and previews the upcoming games of the day. As soon as the first game kicks off, he “grabs the remote” and takes us live to that game. From that point forward—whenever another game seems more appealing—he “bounces out” into that game. If one game is about to head to a commercial, he takes us to another game. Immediately. As a matter of fact, this past Sunday, I saw my first advertisement of any kind a full hour-and-a-half into the day’s action. At that point, with most games heading into halftime, we go live to Andrew’s studio and a voiceover reads, “The Red Zone Channel. Brought to you by Sony.” Then Andrew shows highlights from the first half. That’s it. That brief ad for Sony (and the Best Buy logo that is displayed when a final box score from a game is flashed on the screen) is all the advertising I see all day. (There’s no way that can continue—DirecTV has to think of a way to make more money from the advertisers, but I’ll enjoy it while it lasts.)
And Andrew somehow pulls off this near-impossible job of watching as many as 10 games at once almost seamlessly. A team is about to punt? Andrew breaks in and says, “We don’t show you punts here at the Red Zone Channel. Unless Devin Hester is involved.” The announcers for a particular game throw it back to New York for a highlight from another game? Andrew breaks in and says, “You just saw that. Let’s grab the remote and bounce out to another game.” He’s quick, he’s funny, and he’s got what seems like a dream job, as hard as it probably is to do.
The only complaint I have for Andrew? Sometimes he quits early. Some Sundays around 5:30, when the second round of Sunday games are going on, he lets us know that he’s shutting down for the day. He tells us what channel to find all the games on, but he’s out of there. I understood it the Sunday that the Patriots were playing the Colts—I mean who wanted to watch Houston-Oakland or Cleveland-Seattle when the Game of the Millennium was being played? But on a typical Sunday afternoon, I want Andrew running the switchboard and taking me around the league. When I’m spending 10 straight hours on the couch, expending energy by using the remote is pretty taxing.
Other than that, I have no complaints. The Missus and I love our Sundays with Andrew. He does all the heavy lifting, and we don’t have to search around for the game of the day. And with the Patriots playing a night game seemingly every week, we’ve had some time to really bond with Andrew and appreciate the man’s dedication to the NFL.
Dwelling on our latest find got me thinking about the revolutionary technological advancements that have come our way in the last 10 years. And I wondered where I would place Andrew’s channel. Let’s check out one man’s list:
The Sports in a Can Top 10 Technological Advancements of the Last 10 Years
1. The Internet 2. Email 3. Cellphones 4. TiVo 5. Wireless Internet access 6. High Definition television 7. NFL Sunday Ticket 8. iTunes 9. Tollbooth transponders 10. The Red Zone Channel
This list assumes the technological advancement had an impact on me, personally, so hybrid cars don’t make the list. Not yet, anyway. Maybe my next car. And if you want to quibble with the timing of some of them, so be it. I don’t remember when Al Gore invented the Internet, I just don’t recall it impacting my life pre-1997. Same goes for email. And cellphones have come a looong way since you had to carry around a phone booth to make a call. Those are easily my top three because each can end the phrase: “Do you remember what we did before _____?” TiVo has worked its way up to #4 and is nearing life-changing potential.
Andrew’s channel lands in 10th position and could threaten tollbooth transponders in the near future. That’s how life-altering it is.
Last week we watched a whiparound that included Jacksonville pulling away from Buffalo, Oakland upsetting Kansas City, Seattle holding on against St. Louis, and Tampa Bay holding on against Washington. All live. On a Sunday when the top five teams in the NFL weren’t playing, the excitement level was still high in the Sports in a Can living room.
We’ve got five more Sundays with Andrew before the Red Zone Channel goes dark for the winter. We’ll be enjoying every last second.Week 13 NFL Picks
DALLAS (-7) over Green Bay ST. LOUIS (-3) over Atlanta Buffalo (+5½) over WASHINGTON MINNESOTA (-3½) over Detroit TENNESSEE (-3½) over Houston INDIANAPOLIS (-6½) over Jacksonville MIAMI (-1) over NY Jets San Diego (-5½) over KANSAS CITY Seattle (+3) over PHILADELPHIA San Francisco (+3) over CAROLINA Cleveland (+1) over ARIZONA Denver (-3½) over OAKLAND CHICAGO (+1½) over NY Giants Tampa Bay (+3) over NEW ORLEANS PITTSBURGH (-7) over Cincinnati New England (-20½) over BALTIMORE
I was going to follow up what I wrote last week with a little diddy about how great Sunday night’s Patriots win was and how it turned everything around and how great life was and blah blah blah. But the last thing anyone wants is a Patriots fan gloating about his team.
Instead, let’s focus in on the upcoming slate of games in the NFL. I went a disappointing 7-8-1 last week after my strong opening week. Although my tidbit of the week—that the underdogs who won in Week 1 would be good bets in Week 2—came true in the form of a 3-0-1 week for those teams. Of course I told you that tidbit and then only took 3 of them myself. I won’t make that mistake this week.
I’ve got a few more tidbits to share this week. They are spread throughout my picks for the weekend.
Arizona at Baltimore Did you ever stop to think about team names and what it would mean if they actually did battle? I mean a Cardinal is a cute little red bird that is not indigenous to Arizona. A Raven is one of the largest birds in North America, is considered one of the smartest of all birds, and can survive anywhere from the Arctic to the desert. Plus the Raven was immortalized in a poem by the macabre Edgar Allan Poe (which makes it one tough bird). All I can say about this game is: That’s So Raven. Pick: Baltimore (-7½)
San Francisco at Pittsburgh Over the last two years, teams that started the season 2-0 and played a team with fewer than 2 wins in Week 3 are just 3-7 against the spread. More important than that tidbit is this one—teams that won their first two games by 17 or more are 0-2-1 against the spread the next week. That makes Pittsburgh, New England, and Dallas vulnerable this week. Pick: San Francisco (+9)
Detroit at Philadelphia I don’t want to place any more pressure on Donovan McNabb, but his team is 0-2 and he is the 23rd-highest rated quarterback in the league. I’m not criticizing you, Donovan. I’m just stating facts. No pressure, OK? Pick: Detroit (+6)
Indianapolis at Houston Everyone had this one down as one of the premier games of the season, right? Undefeated Indianapolis vs. undefeated Houston. Raise your hand if you had this one pegged as a clash of the titans. Pick: Indianapolis (-6)
Miami at NY Jets The Jets have won 5 of the last 6 games with the Dolphins. I smell a trend. Or maybe I smell a rat. I don’t know. I smell something. Pick: NY Jets (-3)
Minnesota at Kansas City The Vikings have allowed 76 rushing yards per game so far this season, up 15 yards per game from last year’s phenomenal total (but still 5th best in the league). The Chiefs have rushed for 71 yards per game this year, down 63 yards per game from the 2006 season. This could be the first game in NFL history in which a team rushes for negative yardage for the entire game. Pick: Minnesota (+2½)
St. Louis at Tampa Bay Teams that began 0-2 the last two years went 7-3 vs. the spread against teams with at least one win in Week 3. Digging a little deeper, teams that lost one of their games by less than 10 and the other by 10 or more went 5-1 against the number. That makes Atlanta, St. Louis, Oakland, and Buffalo sure-fire covers this weekend. Pick: St. Louis (+3½)
Buffalo at New England Do you think Randy Moss will be a difference-maker for the Patriots? I’m still on the fence. Pick: Buffalo (+16½)
San Diego at Green Bay I’ve been a huge Prison Break fan since day 1, even though I had to suspend my disbelief at every turn. First, an architect tattoos his entire body with plans to break his brother out of prison. Then the group of escapees (those that survived) converge both in Utah (to dig up D.B. Cooper’s money) and in Panama. Finally, the escapee brothers are miraculously exhonerated after the President of the United States announces that she is leaving office—but one of the brothers ends up in the worst prison on the planet, from which he needs to escape. Yeah, they might have lost me this year. Pick: San Diego (-5½)
Cincinnati at Seattle Seattle is 33-12 at home since 2002. And the way Cincinnati’s defense played last week, I don’t see the Bengals providing much of a challenge this weekend. Pick: Seattle (-3)
Cleveland at Oakland Last week the Browns and Bengals played one of their semi-annual “Ugly Games.” There’s nothing but orange and black all over the field and absolutely no defense. It’s Halloween gone mad. CBS added to the ugliness by showing the game in No Definition. Keep up the good work, CBS. You might as well show this game in No Def as well. Pick: Oakland (-3)
Jacksonville at Denver The Denver Broncos needed the field goal unit to sprint onto the field and kick a game winner in 8 seconds in Week 1. Last week, their coach called time out a nano-second before the Raiders snapped the ball for a game-winning field goal. Oakland then missed the second try and the Broncos drove for the winning score. When you win two games you have no right winning, there’s only two ways the rest of the season can go: 14-2 and a trip to the Super Bowl or 8-8 with a string of “how did they blow that game” losses. I’m going with the latter. Pick: Jacksonville (+3)
Carolina at Atlanta Since I have nothing to say about this game, let’s talk baseball for a moment. The American League races are all but over (and even if the Yankees catch the Red Sox, both are making the playoffs), but the National League drama might be just beginning. All three divisions are separated by 1½ games or less, and the Wild Card is up for grabs as well. I’m rooting for ties galore, with the Mets and Phillies, Padres and Diamondbacks, and Cubs and Brewers all playing one game playoffs on October 1, with the losers of the first two games meeting the next day to settle the Wild Card. But maybe that’s just me. Pick: Atlanta (+4)
NY Giants at Washington ESPN’s Chris Mortensen reports that Giants quarterback Eli Manning will retire due to the severity of his dislocated shoulder. Wait, this just in, Eli Manning will be starting this weekend for the Giants. Pick: Washington (-3½)
Dallas at Chicago The Bears have allowed just 12 points per game so far this season, 4th-lowest in the NFL. The Cowboys have scored a league-best 41 points per game. The Cardinals have scored 40 points and allowed 40 points. I don’t know what any of this means, but it sure sounded good at first. Pick: Chicago (-3)
Tennessee at New Orleans
Only three teams since 1990 have started the season 0-2 and advanced to the Super Bowl (the ’93 Cowboys, ’96 Patriots, and ’01 Patriots). Team number four—the New Orleans Saints—begins the long climb this week (or else I can kiss my Super Bowl prediction goodbye in Week 3). Pick: New Orleans (-4)
The 2007 NFL season kicks off tomorrow night with the defending world champion Indianapolis Colts hosting the New Orleans Saints. Seven months after Peyton Manning and the Colts showed that they could indeed win the big one, they get to play the role of defending champion.
No more Michael Vick discussions. No more debates on the length of the preseason. No more reminiscing about (or gnashing teeth over) last year’s results.
I covered most of the questions that we’re all seeking answers to last week in Part 1 of the Sports in a Can NFL Preview. So, without further ado, let’s get to this year’s predictions. Division winners are in bold, wild card teams are in italics:
AFC East New England 13-3 Buffalo 7-9 NY Jets 7-9 Miami 4-12
In what amounted to a rebuilding year, the Patriots won 12 games and were one play away from the Super Bowl last season. Seven months later they’ve added the best defensive free agent available (Adalius Thomas) and three wide receivers (Wes Welker, Donte’ Stallworth, and Randy Moss) that are so much better than what they had last year they released last season’s yardage leader (Reche Caldwell). Does it matter that Richard Seymour can’t play until at least Week 7 or that Rodney Harrison was using HGH and will miss the first four games? A little, but not enough to derail what will be the best team in the NFL this year. Meanwhile, Buffalo lost almost all of their defensive players to free agency or injury. The Jets will take a step backward—last season’s 10 wins were a little suspect (their final 5 wins were against Houston, Miami, Oakland, Green Bay, and Minnesota, who won a combined 26 games, or 5.2 each). And the Dolphins are now officially a mess.
Questions abound in this division. How different will the Ravens’ defense be without Adalius Thomas? How much of an impact will new head coach Mike Tomlin have on the Steelers? How many Bengals will get arrested? And will the Browns ever be good? Baltimore shouldn’t miss Thomas much, as that defense is packed with players. The Steelers will be good enough under their new coach to get back to the playoffs. The Benglas will win exactly 8 games for the 4th time in 5 years. And the Browns are at least a year away. Maybe more.
AFC South
Indianapolis 12-4 Jacksonville 10-6 Tennessee 7-9 Houston 5-11
The defending Super Bowl Champion Colts lost linebacker Cato June, left tackle Tarik Glenn, defensive tackle Booger McFarland, and cornerback Nick Harper. They will not be as good as they were last year, but with four games against the Titans and Texans, along with Kansas City, Oakland, and Atlanta on the schedule, they don’t need to be as good to nail down 12 wins and their 5th straight division crown. Will Jacksonville ever be able to put it together? They released quarterback Byron Leftwhich over the weekend, meaning David Garrard (and his 3,543 career passing yards) is now the full-time starter. Their defense will be stellar again, but the offense is a huge question mark. The Titans, meanwhile, with Vince “I need to sleep in my own bed” Young will take a step backward. With games at Jacksonville, vs. Indianapolis, and at New Orleans to begin the season, there might be some bruised egos heading into their bye week. And the Texans remain the Texans. Unless Matt Shaub (and his 1,033 career passing yards) turns out to be the next Joe Montana. Which is doubtful.
AFC West
San Diego 11-5 Denver 8-8 Kansas City 5-11 Oakland 3-13
The Chargers had the talent to win it all last year. Unfortunately, they were led into the postseason by Marty Schottenheimer and his career 5-12 postseason record. And for the 4th time in his career, he took a 12+ win team into a home playoff game and lost. Replacing Schottenheimer is Norv Turner. You might know Turner (58-82-1 in his career) from such hits as, “I ruined the Redskins” and, “Yes you can win 9 games in 2 years with a team 2 years removed from the Super Bowl and still get another job.” San Diego has too much talent for even Norv to mess up that badly, so 11 wins and the division crown it is. He’ll be helped by the down year I predict for the AFC West. Denver head coach Mike Shanahan somehow coaxed 9 wins out of the Broncos last year. But with untested Jay Cutler anointed as the quarterback, I can’t see Denver winning more than 8 games. And the Chiefs will suffer the second year blues under head coach Herm Edwards. Meanwhile the Raiders continue to be just plain awful.
NFC East
Philadelphia 10-6 Washington 8-8 Dallas 7-9 NY Giants 6-10
Year after year, there’s one thing you can count on in the NFC East: The Eagles being at the top. The Eagles have won 10 games or more 6 times in the last 7 years, so I’ll give them the nod for 10 this year. The rest of the division has problems. The NFL may have passed Joe Gibbs by, but I’ll give him credit for giving it a go, and with the talent they have, there’s no reason for them to win fewer than 8 games. For the Cowboys, new head coach Wade Phillips is walking into a difficult situation. Only once out of the three times Bill Parcells has left a franchise has the team won more games the next season. Plus he’s got the Terrell Owens factor to deal with, along with quarterback Tony Romo’s psyche after dropping the snap on last year’s extra point in the playoffs. And then there are the Giants. I was high on them last year but the fact remains that Eli is no Peyton, head coach Tom Coughlin’s style has a short shelf life, and they’re going to miss running back Tiki Barber (over 2,000 yards rushing and receiving in each of the last three years) more than they think.
NFC North
Chicago 12-4 Minnesota 9-7 Green Bay 6-10 Detroit 4-12
It’s a testament to how bad the NFC is in comparison to the AFC that the Bears are probably going to win 12 games again. They have a solid defense, an awful quarterback, and a head coach that’s out of his element in the biggest moments. (Lovie Smith is a nice enough guy, but re-read my recap of last year’s “win” over the Seahawks in the playoffs and tell me if you’d want him coaching your team.) But playing in the NFC, having the 31st easiest schedule (according to last season’s records), and fielding a defense that can win games by itself at times will power the Bears to 12 wins. The Vikings seem to be the only other team in this division that has a chance to be respectable. I like what Brad Childress is doing in Minnesota, and he has turned that team from a laughing stock into a potential playoff team. They just need to find some offense to go with their incredible run-stopping defense (they allowed 111 fewer rushing yards per game than the Colts last year). I still don’t know how Green Bay won 8 games last year, but without running back Ahman Green, Brett Favre will have to throw more. With 47 interceptions (to go with 38 touchdowns) in the last two seasons, Favre throwing more is not what the Packers are looking for. And the Lions can run as many 5 receiver sets as they want. Jon Kitna is throwing the ball to them.
NFC South
New Orleans 12-4 Carolina 11-5 Tampa Bay 9-7 Atlanta 2-14
The Saints, last year’s surprise team, will continue to be a team on the rise. Drew Brees has seemingly overnight transformed into one of the premier quarterbacks in the league. Since his abysmal 2003 season, Brees has thrown 77 touchdowns against only 33 interceptions. Last season he led the league with 4,418 passing yards. Between Brees, the emergence of all-world Reggie Bush, and the coaching of Sean Payton, the Saints will emerge as the top team in the NFC this year. Meanwhile, the Panthers will be right there with them, winning 11 games. How do I know for sure? Here are the Panthers’ wins the last 5 years: 7-11-7-11-8. And it should have been 7 last year—I have no idea how the Panthers won in Baltimore in Week 6. So 11 it is. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is putting it together finally. I thought last year would be the year, but with the addition of Jeff “I am now the man” Garcia, 9 wins seems attainable. And Michael Vick has a better chance of starring in a Prison Break cameo than the Falcons do of winning more than 2 games this year.
NFC West
San Francisco 10-6 Seattle 10-6 St. Louis 8-8 Arizona 7-9
An improved 49ers squad will finally make the leap to the promised land of the playoffs this year. Consider this: San Francisco beat Seattle twice last season and then got the Seahawks’ best receiver (Darrell Jackson) from them in a trade. Quarterback Alex Smith is improving, running back Frank Gore is a force, and—with a division title presumably on the line—the 49ers finish the season with three straight home games and then a trip to Cleveland. I don’t trust the Seahawks and I never will, but I’ll give them 10 wins and a wild card berth. St. Louis seems headed for another 8-8 season—they’re not good enough to challenge for the division, but their offense is too good to lose too many games. And then there are the Cardinals. I was ready to anoint them the surprise team—again. But they lost two different players in the preseason with torn muscles, which you just have to think is a bad sign. They will be good—and soon—but this isn’t the year for any more than 7 wins.
The Playoffs
Week 1: Baltimore (3) beats Pittsburgh (6); Jacksonville (5) beats San Diego (4); Philadelphia (3) beats Seattle (6); Carolina (5) beats San Francisco (4)
Week 2: New England (1) beats Jacksonville (5); Indianapolis (2) beats Baltimore (3); New Orleans (1) beats Carolina (5); Philadelphia (3) beats Chicago (1)
NFC Championship Game: New Orleans over Philadelphia, continuing the remarkable turnaround for the Saints franchise.
AFC Championship Game: New England vs. Indianapolis. Right where we left off in January. In the next edition of this great rivalry, the Patriots get the upper hand and advance to the Super Bowl for the 4th time in 7 years.
Super Bowl XLII: After winning their first three Super Bowls by a combined 9 points, the Patriots win this one by 9 points, 34-25 over New Orleans.
* * * * *
Week 1 Picks
Last year, 7 underdogs won outright in Week 1, and 2 others covered the spread. The year before it was 6 and 1. The trick is finding the right underdogs this early in the season.
INDIANAPOLIS (-6½) over New Orleans BUFFALO (+3) over Denver Kansas City (+3) over HOUSTON JACKSONVILLE (-6½) over Tennessee MINNESOTA (-3) over Atlanta New England (-6½) over NY JETS Philadelphia (-3) over GREEN BAY Pittsburgh (-4½) over CLEVELAND Carolina (+1) over ST. LOUIS WASHINGTON (-3) over Miami Detroit (+1½) over OAKLAND SAN DIEGO (-5½) over Chicago SEATTLE (-6) over Tampa Bay NY Giants (+6) over DALLAS Baltimore (+2½) over CINCINNATI SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Arizona
