With my NFL picks going so well in the early season (11 games over .500) it’s time to #### out an all-NFL picks post.
Baltimore at Indianapolis The Colts are 2-2 but could just as easily be 0-4. The Ravens are 2-2 but could just as easily be 4-0. What does this mean? The Ravens should probably win this game but the Colts could just as easily win it. Or it could end in a tie. Pick: Baltimore (+4)
Carolina at Tampa Bay Will the Tampa area be too busy watching the Rays to care about this one? Pick: Tampa Bay (-1½)
Chicago at Atlanta The Falcons—who I picked to win just 1 game this season—have already won 3. The Bears—who I picked to win 5 games—have already won 3. This match-up is an example of all the things wrong with my NFL preview. Pick: Chicago (-2½)
Cincinnati at New York Jets What a disaster the Bengals are right now. Pick: New York Jets (-8)
Detroit at Minnesota The Lions finally fired general manager Matt Millen after a spectacular 31-84 record under his watch. Then they lost 34-7 last week. At home. I’d take Minnesota -30 in this one. Pick: Minnesota (-13)
Miami at Houston After winning just 1 game last year, the Dolphins now find themselves on a 2-game winning streak. Meanwhile the Texans might not win a game all season at this rate. Pick: Miami (+3)
Oakland at New Orleans Darth Vader: Master, where do you want me to sit during the Raiders’ games? Emperor Davis: You shall sit in the north end zone with the rest of the Raider fan dolts. Darth Vader: Yes, my Master. Emperor Davis: And I shall fire my 5th coach in 6 years. And I shall rant and rave for an hour during a bizarre press conference on the bridge of the Death Star in Oakland. Welcome to the Crazy Side of the Force. Pick: New Orleans (-7)
St. Louis at Washington Did you know that the NHL season started with four games played in Prague and Stockholm last week? Me neither. Pick: Washington (-13½)
Jacksonville at Denver I’m going to keep picking Jacksonville, week after week. And I’m going to keep picking against Denver, week after week. We’ll see how that works out. Pick: Jacksonville (+3½)
Dallas at Arizona I can’t figure out these former division rivals. The Cowboys lost at home to the Redskins and then struggled to beat the Bengals. The Cardinals spent a week on the East Coast only to lose both of their games. Then they trounced formerly undefeated Buffalo last week. Pick: Dallas (-4½)
Green Bay at Seattle After starting the season 2-0, the Packers have lost 3 straight. Just what the doctor ordered this week, though: a trip to face the struggling Seahawks. Pick: Green Bay (-1½)
Philadelphia at San Francisco With the Phillies up 2-0 in the NLCS and the Cubs—my World Series pick—gone in the first round, can I change my World Series prediction to Phillies over Rays? Is Philadelphia ready to end their 25-year championship drought? Pick: Philadelphia (-4½)
New England at San Diego The Patriots rebounded after their awful loss to the Dolphins with a win in San Francisco last week. Then they spent the rest of the week soaking up the sun in California. The Chargers live in California, but you know how you tend not to appreciate something when you have it? The Patriots’ appreciation of a week in sunny California will propel them to victory in this one. Pick: New England (+5)
New York Giants at Cleveland I can see the Browns keeping this one close. And losing late. Again. Pick: Cleveland (+7½)
Back in the days of weekend-long video game-playing, what happened last Sunday to Tom Brady and the Patriots would have been a classic “that never happened” moment. Game 1 of the season, 8 minutes in, and the best player in the game goes down with an injury? Time to hit the reset button and yell, “That never happened!”
Unfortunately in real life, as we’ve all been taught, there is no reset button. So now the season of redemption for the Patriots becomes the season of doubt. Is this team good enough to win without Tom Brady? Can Matt Cassel—a career back-up even in college—manage the game effectively enough for the Patriots? Will Randy Moss pack it in now that he’s lost his quarterback? Can lightning possibly strike twice for a New England Patriots backup quarterback?
Of course there are league-wide ramifications that go along with Brady’s injury. Many people (myself included) had the Patriots winning the Super Bowl this year. Can we get a do-over on the predictions? In the span of one day the quarterback of my Super Bowl-winning team went down and the team I had pegged to win one game (the Falcons) won their first game.
And then there is the ugly side of Brady’s injury. I knew it was coming but it still struck me like a punch to the gut. No, not the injury itself—that was a shock to the system. I’m talking about the first #### I heard on sports radio that uttered, “I’m glad he got hurt.”
And that #### wasn’t alone. I’ve read blog posts echoing a similar sentiment. And the word on the street is that fans in various locales cheered mightily when Brady limped off the field. Forget the “never wish harm upon anyone” argument just for a moment. I’ve got a better argument against these people: The Forgotten Title argument.
What’s the Forgotten Title, you ask? I’ll give you an example: The NBA Champions from 1994 and 1995. Anyone know who that was? The Houston Rockets, who won the NBA Championship the two years in which Michael Jordan “retired.” To this day there are those that believe that Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls would have won eight straight championships if Jordan hadn’t left.
Is that what you want as a fan of a particular team? To have your team’s success, championships, and character questioned because they had the misfortune to win in a year that someone else was supposed to win?
As a fan of the Patriots, I know firsthand the torture of needing to defend your team even after they’ve won it all. After the Spygate scandal broke last year, many questioned the legitimacy of the Patriots’ three Super Bowl titles. We went from wearing our Super Bowl gear with pride to defending each and every win. All championships are not created equal.
On the flip side, the teams that slay the dragons are remembered for eternity. Think Jim Valvano’s 1983 NC State team. Or the 2001 Patriots. Or [gulp] the 2007 Giants.
Think about what the Giants did last year. They beat two 13-win teams (on the road) and won the Super Bowl against the first 18-0 team in NFL history. How much more satisfying could a championship be than that? Your team beats the two best teams in your league and one of the greatest teams of all time to win it all. No one can ever take that away, and no one is ever going to downplay it or forget it.
This year’s champion? It’s going to depend who wins, but if it’s any AFC team, you’ll always hear, “Well, who knows if they would have beaten Tom Brady and the Patriots.”
As a fan, first and foremost we want our teams to win. But the close second to that is that we want our teams to be remembered. We don’t want to ever have to hear that our team won a “tainted” championship because it was a strike-shortened season, or someone broke the rules, or because some other team’s best player got hurt.
So be careful what you wish for, fans of other teams. Ask any Giants fan how satisfying last year was. Or any Colts fan how much beating the Patriots and then winning the Super Bowl means to them. Or ask any Red Sox fan how much sweeter winning the 2004 World Series was after becoming the first team in history to come back from a 3-0 deficit. Against the Yankees.
And just think about this: What if the Patriots manage to rally behind Cassel and make the playoffs. Or win the AFC East. Or even win it all. What then?
This NFL season has a whole new level of intrigue now. No one knows how Matt Cassel and the Patriots will respond against the Jets on Sunday. The question remains: Who will win the Super Bowl this year, and will it become a Forgotten Title?
Week 2 NFL Picks
JACKSONVILLE (-5½) over Buffalo CAROLINA (-3) over Chicago Green Bay (-3) over DETROIT MINNESOTA (+1½) over Indianapolis New Orleans (+E) over WASHINGTON NY Giants (-8½) over ST. LOUIS KANSAS CITY (-3½) over Oakland Tennessee (+1½) over CINCINNATI TAMPA BAY (-7) over Atlanta San Francisco (+7) over SEATTLE ARIZONA (-6½) over Miami New England (+1½) over NY JETS DENVER (+1) over San Diego CLEVELAND (+6) over Pittsburgh HOUSTON (-4½) over Baltimore Philadelphia (+7) over DALLAS
Why do we like to make predictions? Everyone does it. And usually no one’s good at it. Sure, we have our moments. Like last year I correctly predicted that San Diego would win 11 games, Seattle would win 10, Tampa Bay would win 9, Buffalo would win 7, and the Patriots would advance to the Super Bowl. Of course I also predicted Green Bay would win 6 (they won 13), Baltimore would win 12 (they won 5), and the Pats would win the Super Bowl, beating New Orleans (who missed the playoffs at 7-9).
But we’ll give it another go this year. As I look ahead to this NFL season, I’ve decided that there are only five types of NFL teams as we head into each season: The Super Bowl Contenders, the Tragically Flawed Teams, the Teams on the Rise, the Teams on the Decline, and the Teams Already on the Clock (for a top 5 draft pick in 2009).
Let’s take a look at each category:
Teams Already on the Clock (for a top 5 draft pick in 2009)
Atlanta Rookie Matt Ryan will be the starting quarterback for the Falcons from day 1. Do I have to say any more?
Oakland The more things change in Oak-town, the more they stay the same. With glaring needs up and down the roster, the Raiders—who had the 6th-best rushing attack in football last season—selected a running back as their first draft pick. They might challenge once again for the league rushing title, but not much else will improve this year.
Kansas City Can two of the worst teams in the league really reside in the same division? Yes, they can. The Raiders-Chiefs match-up on November 30 might be for next year’s #1 draft pick.
Chicago Back in college my buddies and I got so good at Nintendo’s Tecmo Super Bowl—the last great pre-Madden video game—that we needed to challenge ourselves when playing the game. The game was based on the 1990 season, and the New York Giants were so good you could practically win with your eyes closed. So we’d use the Giants and try to win with just their defense, punting every time we were on offense. You could customarily win 10 games this way. This scenario is very much like the 2008 Chicago Bears—except for the 10 wins part. The Bears have a “revamped” offense that will consist of quarterback Kyle Orton (who threw 80 passes last year), rookie running back Matt Forte, and the untested Devin Hester at wide receiver. And, unfortunately for the Bears, the defense does not resemble the Tecmo Super Bowl Giants.
Cincinnati The inmates are running the asylum. When wide receiver Chris Henry was re-signed following the record-breaking 1,000th Bengals arrest in 1,000 days, it was just another signal that the Bengals still have no direction. Then wide receiver Chad Johnson officially changed his name to Chad Ocho Cinco, so that he could put that on the back of his jersey and not get fined. Things are going really well in Cincinnati.
Teams on the Decline
Baltimore After the Ravens won just 5 games last year, the former genius named Brian Billick was politely asked to leave and join the Coors Light cast of former coaches. Things weren’t looking up in Baltimore even they lost Kyle Boller for the season.
Denver The bloom might finally be off the rose of another genius: Mike Shanahan.
Buffalo I don’t like what I see in Buffalo. They’re focusing on the defense, but—like the Bears—their offense is so bad it just won’t matter. Last year the Bills’ offense was 30th in the league and their defense was 31st. Even if they improve one of those numbers a little it doesn’t move them up the win chart very far. I’m still trying to figure out how they won 7 games last year.
Washington Maybe it’s the yellow shoes. Or the way they got manhandled by the Giants. Or the way Jim Zorn slept-walk through coaching his first NFL game on Thursday. Or the fact that quarterback Jason Campbell is working under his 100th different offensive system since pee wee football. One of these reasons explains why the Redskins will not be good this year.
Tennessee I’m not buying what Tennessee is selling. The defense is good, the rushing offense is good, but Vince Young scares me and the Colts and Jaguars are far superior to the Titans.
Detroit Jon Kitna is still the quarterback, they have rookies all over the place, and it will be at least one more year before Detroit can turn things around.
Seattle I feel the same way about the Seahawks that I felt about the Bears last season. Everyone looked at the Bears and said, “Well, they’ve done it the last two seasons and no one else in their division is ready to step up.” I bought into the hype and penciled the Bears in for 12 wins. So what happened? The Bears went 7-9 and Green Bay stepped up and won the division. I don’t have a good feeling about the Seahawks this year, so I’m going with that feeling this time.
Green Bay They drove an icon out of town. A bad start is going to mean boos raining down on head coach Mike McCarthy’s and quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ heads. Can this team weather the kind of firestorm that developed in the offseason?
Teams on the Rise
Miami With just one win last season, the Dolphins have to be on the rise, don’t they? With Bill Parcells at the helm, the Fish are moving in the right direction, and Chad Pennington has to be worth a win or two.
Houston The Texans won a franchise-best 8 games last year, and head coach Gary Kubiak has them headed in the right direction. They might not be ready to challenge Indianapolis and Jacksonville for the top of their division, but they might challenge Tennessee for 3rd place and could even end up with their first-ever winning season.
Carolina Quarterback Jake Delhomme is healthy and head coach John Fox customarily gets more out of his teams than many other head coaches. The Panthers turn things around this year and challenge the Saints for South supremacy.
Arizona San Francisco St. Louis One of these three teams has to rise up and challenge Seattle. Right? The Seahawks have won their division four years in a row. During that stretch only New England and Indianapolis have won their divisions every year. The Seahawks? Enough is enough. All I have to say is [using Chris Berman’s voice], “Come on Arizona, San Francisco, and St. Louis!”
Tragically Flawed
NY Jets The good news for the Jets is that they picked up Brett Favre. The bad news for the Jets is that they picked up Brett Favre. Even during Green Bay’s magical run last year, you just had that feeling that the bad Brett Favre was itching to bubble to the top. And then, in overtime of the NFC title game, there it was—the fateful interception we’d all been waiting for. Favre will be worth an extra regular season win or two (plus all of the moves the Jets made in the offseason will net another win or two) but somewhere along the line, the gunslinging Favre will end the Jets’ season early.
Tampa Bay Super Bowl XLIII will be played in Raymond James Stadium, home of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. No team has ever advanced to a Super Bowl played in their home stadium.
New Orleans I like the Saints. I really do. And I thought they were making all the right moves this offseason. Until they picked up Jeremy Shockey. Shockey is a quality player and brings a unique toughness to the tight end position. But not the clubhouse kind of guy that brings a team together. You want some evidence? Try last year’s Giants—who went on a run that culminated in a Super Bowl championship. After Shockey got hurt. I’m just saying.
San Diego By all accounts Chargers head coach Norv Turner is a nice guy and a decent coach. But how many decent coaches win the Super Bowl? You have to go back to the ’95 Cowboys with Barry Switzer before you find a Super Bowl-winning coach that could be described by words less exemplary than “really good.” And as for nice guys winning it all, consider this: The last eight Super Bowls were won by guys named Tom Coughlin, Tony Dungy, Bill Cowher, Bill Belichick, Jon Gruden, and Brian Billick. Or—putting it another way—Tony Dungy and five guys I wouldn’t want as my best friend. As my head coach? Definitely. You want some combination of smart, fiery, win-at-all-costs, and single-minded about football—but not nice or decent.
Dallas Something’s wrong in Big D. How else to explain their inexplicable loss by one point two seasons ago on a botched extra point attempt? Or last year’s collapse to the division-rival G-Men? I can’t put my finger on it, but something in this team’s makeup is not working. And it isn’t just the insane social experiment they are trying with the likes of Terrell Owens, Pacman Jones, and Tank Johnson. Something is off in Dallas. They might win their first playoff game in 12 years, but win the whole thing? I just can’t see it happening.
Super Bowl Contenders
By my count there are eight teams with a legitimate chance to win the Super Bowl this year.
Cleveland Cleveland? Yes, Cleveland. Think about this: The last eight Super Bowl Champions have either been defense-only squads, teams with a solid defense that complimented their offense, or teams that got hot defensively at the right time (including the ’06 Colts who allowed 31 points in three of their playoff games, and held the Patriots to two field goals in the pivotal 4th quarter of the AFC Championship Game). Defense wins championships and defensive-minded coaches—like Romeo Crennel, the architect of the Patriots’ defense during their three Super Bowl wins—is a defensive guy. Plus Cleveland is mortgaging the future to win now.
NY Giants Could the Giants possibly do it again? This team is built on solid defense, an impressive running game, and Coughlin’s coaching. If Eli Manning can remain the playoff quarterback we saw last year—who knows? If the Giants make the playoffs again, no one’s going to want them on their schedule.
Pittsburgh I love Mike Tomlin. Ben Roethlisberger is putting it all together (and is healthy). And the Steelers are yet another defense-first type team. They went 10-6 last year and have (on paper) the toughest schedule this year, with eight games against 2007 playoff teams. I could see the Steelers just barely making the playoffs but then putting together a playoff similar to the one they put together three years ago or the Giants did last year.
Indianapolis Remember how the Colts won Super Bowl XLI (see the Cleveland entry above)? Solid coaching, Hall of fame quarterback, and a defense that finally put it together. Last year the Colts had the 3rd-best defense in football. All the ingredients are there for the Colts.
Philadelphia When Donovan McNabb is healthy, the Eagles soar. (Wow. Bad pun.) They have a solid running game and are stout defensively. They went 8-8 in a division that produced three playoff teams last year. This team is primed for another run at the title.
Jacksonville As a Patriots fan, if there’s one team in the AFC that scares me to death it’s the Jaguars. David Garrard is a question mark, but this Florida team is built to play in cold weather games, as evidenced by their 2nd-best rushing attack last year and playoff win in Pittsburgh. Their two nemeses are the Colts (they’ve lost 5 out of their last 6 games against Indianapolis) and the Patriots (their last two playoff runs ended at the hands of New England). The Jaguars are going to be a dangerous team once again this year, and the Colts and the Patriots are in their cross-hairs.
Minnesota Everyone’s high on the Vikings, and with good reason. The team finished with the best rushing attack and the best rushing defense in the NFL, then made huge moves in the offseason to add Jared Allen (15½ sacks, most in the NFL last year), wide receiver Bernard Berrian (951 yards receiving), and free safety Madieu Williams. Tarvaris Jackson is a question mark at quarterback, but if all-world running back Adrian Peterson continues to make Jackson’s life easier and the defense plays the way they are expected to, it’s going to be a huge year in Minnesota.
New England The United States Olympic basketball team received the name “Redeem Team,” so the Patriots will need another moniker. Only in the NFL can a team lose just one game over the course of six months and walk away unfulfilled. But that’s where the Patriots stand as they enter the 2008 season. The first undefeated season since 1972 is a long way in the rearview mirror after their stunning loss to the Giants in the Super Bowl. The Patriots are the odds on favorites to win the Super Bowl and have to be wiser than they were last year. Following the Spygate scandal in Week 1 last year, the goal was to win—and win big. This year the goal will be to win as many as they can, but to enter the playoffs prepared, healthy, and on a roll. They have the team and the coaching staff to do it.
Predicted Finish
AFC EastAFC NorthAFC SouthAFC West
New England 14-2
Cleveland 10-6
Indianapolis 11-5
San Diego 12-4
NY Jets 10-6
Pittsburgh 10-6
Jacksonville 11-5
Denver 6-10
Buffalo 6-10
Baltimore 5-11
Houston 9-7
Oakland 4-12
Miami 5-11
Cincinnati 5-11
Tennessee 7-9
Kansas City 2-14
NFC EastNFC NorthNFC SouthNFC West
Dallas 12-4
Minnesota 12-4
New Orleans 10-6
Arizona 10-6
Philadelphia 11-5
Green Bay 9-7
Carolina 9-7
St. Louis 8-8
NY Giants 10-6
Detroit 6-10
Tampa Bay 7-9
Seattle 7-9
Washington 6-10
Chicago 5-11
Atlanta 1-15
San Francisco 6-10
AFC Championship Game
New England over Jacksonville
NFC Championship Game
Minnesota over Philadelphia
Super Bowl XLIII
New England over Minnesota
NFL Week 1 Picks
Cincinnati (-1½) over BALTIMORE
Detroit (-3) over ATLANTA
PITTSBURGH (-6½) over Houston
TENNESSEE (+3) over Jacksonville
NEW ENGLAND (-15½) over Kansas City
NY Jets (-3) over MIAMI
BUFFALO (-1) over Seattle
PHILADELPHIA (-7½) over St. Louis
NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Tampa Bay
Arizona (-2½) over SAN FRANCISCO
Carolina (+9) over SAN DIEGO
CLEVELAND (+5½) over Dallas
INDIANAPOLIS (-9½) over Chicago
Minnesota (+2½) over GREEN BAY
The passage of time in the NFL is marked by decades and the teams that tower over the rest of the field. Various teams win titles throughout each decade, but one team always wins the most championships and stands out as the Team of the Decade.
This is the way it’s been ever since the Green Bay Packers rolled to five NFL titles (including wins in the first two Super Bowls) in the 1960s. The Pittsburgh Steelers won four Super Bowls in the ‘70s, the San Francisco 49ers won four Super Bowls in the ‘80s, and the Dallas Cowboys won three Super Bowls in the ‘90s.
With three Super Bowls remaining in this decade (the ‘00s?), the Patriots are poised to claim the latest Team of the Decade designation. If they win this Sunday they will have four Super Bowl titles this decade. The most Super Bowl wins any other team has is one. Even if they were to somehow lose this weekend, only the Colts or Steelers would have a chance of matching their three titles and possessing a decade-long cache of winning. (Sorry, but even if the Ravens or Buccaneers win the next two Super Bowls, or the Giants win the next three, none of them could possibly be considered Team of the Decade.)
That means there’s even more pressure on the Patriots this Sunday. A win gives them the Super Bowl title, the first 19-0 season in NFL history, and Team of the Decade status.
Let’s take a look at the curriculum vitae for each Team of the Decade.
Green Bay Packers (1960s)
From 1960 through 1969, the Green Bay Packers were the class of the NFL. They had just one losing season (1968, the year after head coach Vince Lombardi stepped down) and won their division six times. The Packers won five of the six NFL Championship Games they played, and won the first two Super Bowls in NFL history. The Packers defined what the NFL was all about during the early years.
Best team of the decade: 1962. The ’62 Packers went 13-1, led the league in both offense and defense, outscored their opponents 415-148, and won the NFL Championship on the road, defeating the New York Giants 16-7.
Worst loss of the decade: The 1960 NFL Championship Game. Taking a 13-10 in the 4th quarter, the Eagles returned the ensuing kickoff 58 yards and eventually took a 17-13 lead. The Packers were stopped on the 8-yard line as time expired. The loss was their first (and only) postseason loss under Lombardi.
Defining games of the decade: Super Bowl I (a 35-10 thrashing of the upstart AFL Kansas City Chiefs) and the 1967 NFL Championship Game (the “Ice Bowl,” a 21-17 win over the Dallas Cowboys in sub-zero weather).
If not for the Packers, the Team of the Decade might have been: The Cleveland Browns. The Browns won five division titles in the ‘60s and took home the 1964 NFL Championship. They lost the 1965 Championship to Green Bay and did not return to the big game for the rest of the decade.
Pittsburgh Steelers (1970s)
Head coach Chuck Noll turned the Steelers from a 1-13 team in 1969 into the best team of the ‘70s. They had just two losing seasons (1970 and 1971), won their division eight years in a row, won four of the six AFC Championship Games they played, and won four Super Bowls. The Steel Curtain defense remains one of the iconic symbols of the NFL.
Best team of the decade: 1978. The ’78 Steelers went 14-2, led the league in defense, and had the 5th best offense. They won their first two playoff games by a combined score of 67-15 before defeating the Dallas Cowboys 35-31 in the Super Bowl.
Worst loss of the decade: The 1976 AFC Championship Game. Many people believe that Pittsburgh’s best team of the ‘70s was the ’76 edition. For the third straight year they played the Oakland Raiders in the Championship game, but with running backs Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier (who had combined for over 2,000 yards in the regular season) both out with injuries, the Raiders won 24-7 to advance to the Super Bowl.
Defining games of the decade: 1972 playoff victory over Oakland (that game that featured the “Immaculate Reception”) and Super Bowl XIII (their 35-31 win over Dallas is considered by many to be the best Super Bowl game of all time).
If not for the Steelers, the Team of the Decade might have been: The Oakland Raiders. The Raiders had 10 straight winning seasons under head coach John Madden in the ‘70s, but had just one Super Bowl win to show for their efforts. The Raiders lost playoff games to the Steelers three times in the ‘70s, with the Steelers winning Super Bowl titles twice after knocking off the Raiders in the AFC Championship game.
San Francisco 49ers (1980s)
Bill Walsh took over a 2-14 team in 1978 and turned the 49ers into one of the league’s most respected and envied franchises. The 49ers had just two losing seasons (1980 and 1982), won their division seven times, made the playoffs eight times, won four of the five NFC Championship Games they played, and won four Super Bowls. At the end of their run, Bill Walsh, quarterback Joe Montana, and wide receiver Jerry Rice were all considered with the best that ever coached and played the game.
Best team of the decade: 1984. The ’84 San Francisco 49ers went 15-1 with the league’s best defense and 2nd-best offense (second only to Dan Marino’s record-setting Dolphins). They won their first two playoff games by a combined score of 44-10 before defeating Marino’s Dolphins 38-16 in the Super Bowl.
Worst loss of the decade: The 1983 NFC Championship Game. Although the 49ers only went 10-6 in 1983, they were one win away from the Super Bowl when they traveled to Washington to take on the Redskins. Trailing 21-0 in the 4th quarter, the 49ers scored three quick touchdowns and tied the game 21-21 with less than seven minutes to play. But the Redskins—aided by a controversial pass interference call—marched 78 yards to set up kicker Mark Moseley for a 25-yard game-winning field goal. Moseley—who had missed four field goals throughout the game—nailed this one and sent the Redskins to the Super Bowl.
Defining games of the decade: The 1982 NFC Championship Game (the game that featured “The Catch”) and Super Bowl XXIII (Montana leads a 92-yard touchdown drive with 3:10 to go in the game).
If not for the 49ers, the Team of the Decade might have been: The Chicago Bears. The Bears won one Super Bowl in the ‘80s but lost to the 49ers twice in the NFC Championship Game (including once at home). The 49ers won the Super Bowl both times.
Dallas Cowboys (1990s)
The once-proud Cowboys were 3-13 during legendary head coach Tom Landry’s final season and fell to 1-15 in Jimmie Johnson’s first season. But three different head coaches—Johnson, Barry Switzer, and Chan Gailey—would lead the Cowboys to winning seasons in all but three years (1990, 1997, and 1999), six division titles, eight playoff appearances, three wins in four NFC Championship Games, and three Super Bowl titles.
Best team of the decade: 1992. The Cowboys went 13-3 and finished with the 2nd best offense and 5th best defense in the league. They won the NFC Championship Game in San Francisco and dismantled the Buffalo Bills 52-17 in the Super Bowl.
Worst loss of the decade: The 1994 NFC Championship Game. The Cowboys played the 49ers in the Championship Game for the 3rd straight year, and quarterback Troy Aikman entered the game undefeated in the playoffs (7-0). Aikman’s first interception of the game was returned for a touchdown. Wide receiver Cowboys wide receiver Michael Irvin lost a fumble on the next Dallas possession and kick returner Kevin Williams fumbled a kickoff, allowing San Francisco to take a 21-0 1st quarter lead, on their way to a 38-28 victory.
Defining games of the decade: The 1992 NFC Championship Game (Dallas won the game in San Francisco to advance to the franchise’s first Super Bowl in 14 years) and the 1995 NFC Championship Game (one year after losing to the 49ers in the penultimate game, the Cowboys withstood Brett Favre and the surging Packers 38-27 to advance to their third Super Bowl of the decade).
If not for the Cowboys, the Team of the Decade might have been: The San Francisco 49ers. With one Super Bowl and two NFC Championship Game losses to the Cowboys, the team of the ‘90s could have been the same as the team of the ‘80s if not for Dallas.
New England Patriots (2000s)
The New England Patriots have seven straight winning seasons, six division titles, six playoff appearances, four wins in five AFC Championship Games, and three Super Bowl titles. They also own the first undefeated season in 35 years and head to the Super Bowl this week in search of their fourth title of the decade.
Best team of the decade: 2007. The Patriots went 16-0 this season and are in the discussion as one of the greatest teams in NFL history.
Worst loss of the decade: The 2006 AFC Championship Game. The Patriots led the Indianapolis Colts 21-6 at halftime but the Colts scored 32 second half points on the way to a 38-34 win.
Defining games of the decade: The 2001 Divisional Playoff (“The Snow Game” or “The Tuck Rule Game”) and Super Bowl XXXVI (one of the greatest upsets in Super Bowl history).
If not for the Patriots, the Team of the Decade might have been: Either the Indianapolis Colts or the Pittsburgh Steelers. Both have one Super Bowl title and two playoff losses to the Patriots.
As matchbox twenty sings, “Let’s see how far we’ve come.”
Eighteen weeks after the 2007 season began, we’ve got an AFC Championship match-up that seemed plausible prior to the season, and an NFC match-up that no one saw coming back in August.
The road to Super Bowl XLII has been long and winding. With just one Sunday of football remaining before the hype truly begins, let’s take a look at what we’ve learned during this NFL season and postseason.
Jacksonville’s in the wrong division Heck, they might even be in the wrong conference. They’ve lost five out of six to Indianapolis, leaving them without the opportunity to win their division year after year. This means a Wild Card spot at best and no real chance to make it to the Super Bowl. If they were in the NFC they might just be a perennial powerhouse.
This is a shame for the Jaguars, because they showed last week just how good they can be in their battle royale with the undefeated Patriots. It might have been the last tough game the Patriots have this year to tell you the truth. But the Jags still lost, and if they don’t find a way to get past the Colts (or get switched to a different division) painful road playoff losses remain in the Jaguars’ future.
The NFC is a crapshoot Seven different teams have won an NFC division in the last two years. Only Seattle repeated as division champion this year. In the AFC, three of the four division champions repeated, with New England and Indianapolis winning their divisions for five straight years. If I needed to do my NFL 2008 preview right now, I’d go with New England, Indianapolis, and San Diego to repeat again, and Cleveland to get over the hump. And in the NFC? Who knows? How about Arizona, Washington, Detroit, and Atlanta?
Offense is in It wasn’t just Tom Brady and Randy Moss and their record-setting seasons. Scoring was up across the board and there was no defense that stood out like in seasons past. The last Super Bowl champion that rode their offense to the title was the ’99 Rams (and that team actually gave up just 22 points over their final two games). The last seven champions held their first playoff opponent under 20 points, and all but the ’04 Patriots held their first two playoff opponents under 20 points. This week’s favorites to make the Super Bowl, the Patriots and Packers, each gave up 20 points in their first playoff games (and scored 31 and 42, respectively). This season, and playoffs, is all about the offense.
Resting players = losing playoff recipe Tampa Bay rested their players for an unprecedented two straight weeks then lost at home to the Giants. The Cowboys and Colts both rested players prior to their bye week and both lost at home. Meanwhile, the Giants and Patriots battled to the death prior to the playoffs with nothing to gain and each stands one game from the Super Bowl. It’s a trend to keep an eye on for future postseasons.
Maybe it’s the Chargers who are the problem After the Chargers questioned the Patriots’ class after last year’s playoff tussle (Public Enemy #1) I started to wonder if what the players were saying was true. But then I watched the Chargers jaw with the Broncos. And the Titans. And the Colts’ fans. And I thought, “maybe it’s the Chargers who have no class.” I’m just saying…
It’s a good thing Peyton won a ring last year Watching the Colts blow another playoff game at home last week made me even angrier that the Patriots lost to them last year. But the perfect season wouldn’t have happened without that loss (more on that in a moment), so I guess in retrospect it was a good thing. For both the Patriots and Peyton Manning. The Colts won the Super Bowl, did it by going through the Patriots, and Peyton got his ring.
By the way he and his teammates played last week leads me to believe it might be his only ring. His best receiver was barely able to take the field (and then he fumbled when he did) and the offense’s play-calling was awful while the execution was even worse. Last year just might have been it for the Colts.
Yes, everyone, I’m sorry, but the Patriots are this good It took the perfect storm of events to produce the first 17-0 team since the ’72 Dolphins. But that storm arrived. One year ago this weekend the first brick in the foundation was laid, as the Patriots’ offense couldn’t catch a key pass to win the game and the aging defense ran out of gas against the Colts. Then Belichick had to coach the Pro Bowl and I believe he secretly vowed to never be there again. New England loaded up with three wide receivers and the best defensive free agent on the market. Finally, “spygate” occurred, galvanized the team, and the rest is history.
I think Belichick’s defensive game plan for the last six weeks has been to play as vanilla as possible until the second half. If the game’s been close, he releases the hounds. Meanwhile, the offense continues to be a nearly unstoppable machine. It’s reached the point in which the first opponent’s turnover or punt signals that the game is officially over.
Championship Weekend Picks
San Diego (+14½) over New England I’ve incorrectly picked the Patriots’ games against the spread in each of the last four weeks, so I’ll go opposite what I really think will happen in this one and say the Chargers somehow cover the spread. They barely won in Indy, flew back to San Diego, flew across the country again with one fewer day off than the undefeated Patriots, they have a gimpy quarterback, running back, and tight end, the Patriots are clicking on all cylinders, and it’s going to be 12 degrees. It all spells blowout to me. But they’ll probably score a late touchdown to cover the spread, just because I keep getting it wrong. Prediction: Patriots 34, Chargers 20
Green Bay (-7) over New York Giants I think the Giants finally run out of steam this week. The Packers have been lighting it up, and were most impressive after falling behind 14-0 last week. On a slow track like Lambeau in the winter, their defense plays really fast, and Favre has reinvented himself in the twilight of his career. This one will probably be close until late in the game as the Pack pulls away. Prediction: Packers 30, Giants 21
3rd-6, PIT26 2:56 B. Roethlisberger rushed to the left for 1 yard gain
One play shouldn’t define a game or a season, but more often than not one play from a playoff game stands out. Last week it was Ben Roethlisberger’s failed 3rd-and-6 bootleg. The Steelers punted, the Jaguars drove to the 7-yard line, kicked a field goal, and won the game.
That one play stands out more than any other play in the game. More than David Garrard’s 4th down run that kept the Jaguars’ drive alive. More than the Steelers’ failed two-point conversion attempt from the 12-yard line.
Why the 3rd down run by Roethlisberger? Because it showed such a clear misunderstanding of what was needed.
Let’s start with the first 2-point try. The Steelers had just scored to cut the lead to 28-23 with 14 minutes left in the game. Sure, 14 minutes is a lot of time, but two drives earlier the Jaguars had held the ball for almost five minutes and scored a touchdown. Time was indeed running out on the Steelers, and two points was going to get them within a field goal (instead of a touchdown) and increase their chances of winning the game. Even after a (phantom) holding penalty pushed the Steelers back to the 12-yard line, I have no issues with the Steelers going for two there. It showed that they were willing to do whatever they needed to do to win the game.
On the other hand, a Roethlisberger designed rollout/run on 3rd-and-6? That has “I’m so afraid of a turnover that I don’t even want my quarterback to attempt to give the ball to anyone else on the team for fear that something bad will happen” written all over it. That’s the mentality that losing teams have, not a team with a chance to win a playoff game.
That 3rd down play was the culmination o####ame in which the only times the Steelers scored were when they played aggressively. The Steelers opened the game with six straight pass plays (and ended up scoring a touchdown), and Roethlisberger threw on seven consecutive downs at one point in the game. Granted he had three interceptions in the 1st half. But when the chips were down and they needed yards, Big Ben gave them yards.
To take the lead and then go ultra-conservative was inviting trouble. And trouble came a-knocking in the form of David Garrad’s 4th down scramble. That was a designed run out of the shotgun by a guy that can run, and was coach Jack Del Rio’s way of saying, “we are not losing this game.”
A lesson Steelers’ head coach Mike Tomlin needs to learn. NFL Playoffs Round 2 Selections
It was a 2-2 week against the spread last week (and an abysmal 1-3 straight up). Two underdogs covered, as I predicted. Just not the ones I picked. (The story of my season this year.)
As we head into Round 2, you’ll hear a lot of people talking about how the top four teams rarely all make it to the Championship round. But it has happened twice in the last four years, and it seems likely to happen again this year.
Forget the fact that the four teams with byes are clearly the four best teams in the NFL and they’ve all had a week off to prepare. Just look at the eight teams that played last week for a moment. The Steelers blew their game at home but the team that beat them tried to give the game away in the 4th quarter, allowing 19 points in 8 minutes and 32 seconds. The Titans’ game plan was apparently to try and lull the Chargers to sleep, which almost worked, except for the Chargers’ game plan of doing their best Marty Schottenheimer impression until the 2nd half. (Which reminds me: Everyone who says that this season was more successful under Norv Turner than last season under Schottenheimer just because the Chargers won a playoff game is delusional. The Chargers went 14-2 last year and had a bye in the first round. Basically, this season as of right now is still not better than last year because San Diego must go on the road for their next playoff game. If the Chargers pull off the upset this week in Indianapolis, then we can talk.)
The Redskins played their sixth straight game on pure emotion while the Seahawks played some of the worst football known to man for 52 minutes and then played well for a grand total of 5 minutes, enough time to score 22 fourth quarter points, with 14 coming on interception returns for touchdowns. And Tampa Bay spent three weeks resting players and preparing for the Giants and then came out with the worst game plan in history, while the Giants’ game plan was to keep Eli Manning on a tight leash (20-27, 185 yards) and hope the defense (1 sack, 3 turnovers) could win the game.
My point? Could any one of those eight teams have beaten any of the four teams on a bye? I say no. I think all four home teams win this weekend, with only the Giants coming close and covering the spread.
Green Bay (-7½) over Seattle A rematch of the fantastic 2004 playoff game in which Matt Hasselbeck declared—after the Seahawks won the coin toss in over time—“we’ll take the ball and we’re going to score!” And then he threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown. I’ll tell you what I’m tired of hearing about: Playoff experience (the Packers have little, the Seahawks have a lot). In Joe Montana’s 13 non-Super Bowl championship seasons, did the 49ers lose because the other team had more playoff experience, or was the other team just better sometimes? Something to think about, because the Packers are the better team. By far. Pick: Packers 30, Seahawks 13
New England (-13) over Jacksonville Can everyone please just stop with propping up the Jaguars as world beaters? They played a very solid first half against the Steelers last week and then came through when they needed to in the 4th quarter. But their quarterback completed just 9 passes for the entire game. I just don’t see it. The Patriots are rested and ready for the first time in a month. They haven’t had an opportunity to run up the score on an opponent in eight weeks. I don’t think this one will even be close. Pick: Patriots 42, Jaguars 16
Indianapolis (-9) over San Diego I thought that the spread on this one was too high until I remembered how bad the Chargers looked last week. The same Titans team that the Colts almost beat with their backups had the Chargers dead to rights with about 20 minutes left in the game. The Titans led 6-3 and the Chargers had a 3rd-and-4. Rivers completed a pass to Tomlinson for a 1st down and San Diego eventually pulled away. This same Chargers team—without tight end Antonio Gates—is supposed to travel across the country and beat a rested Colts team in the dome? Pick: Colts 34, Chargers 17
NY Giants (+7½) over Dallas With the Jessica Simpson distraction looming over the Cowboys’ heads, there’s no way their focus is there for this game. (Just kidding. That might have been the most ridiculous “controversy” in the history of controversies.) Terrell Owens is hurt, the Cowboys have not played well the last few weeks of the season, and this Giants team is apparently better than I’ve given them credit for, especially defensively. The Giants bring enough pressure to disrupt the Cowboys’ offense, and save for one bad 4th quarter pass against the Patriots, Eli Manning has played very well the last two weeks. Plus this will be the third time the Cowboys and Giants play each other this year, and five of the last six playoff games between division foes has been decided by two touchdowns or less. I have a funny feeling that the Giants will keep this one close, but I just can’t see the Cowboys losing this one. Pick: Cowboys 27, Giants 24
If the four favorites win, we’ll have the best final four since the ’98 season when the 15-1 Vikings took on the 14-2 Falcons and the 14-2 Broncos played the 12-4 Jets. The Vikings had set all of the offensive records but fell to the surprising Falcons in overtime, while the Parcells-coached Jets led 10-0 late in the 3rd quarter before the Broncos stormed back for a 23-10 win.
And if it’s Patriots-Colts and Cowboys-Packers, settle in for one of the best Championship Sundays in a long time.
This year’s NFL regular season brought us the renaissance of a legend, a team rising above the death of one of their own players, the craziest field goal we’ve ever seen, one of the best in-game snowstorms we’ve ever seen, a rookie sensation taking the league by storm, a mere 9 losses registered by the league’s top 4 teams (with three of those losses coming in games against each other), and heavily-hyped games that lived up the hype.
Oh, and the first team in NFL history to go 16-0 (more on whether or not the Patriots’ season was the greatest of all time in a moment).
Maybe I’m in the “whatever is new is always great” club today, but the NFL season that concluded last week sure seemed like one of the best to come along in ages. Brett Favre’s transformation from old man winter (71.8 passer rating with 38 TDs, 47 INTs, and 12 wins the previous two seasons) to the lion in winter (95.7 passer rating with 28 TDs, 15 INTs, and 13 wins this season) was an incredible sight to behold.
Just as incredible was watching the Washington Redskins—who lost Sean Taylor, one of their best defensive players to a shooting death—go 4-0 after regrouping and make the playoffs. And Taylor was elected to the Pro Bowl after his death.
In Week 11, Cleveland kicker Phil Dawson kicked a game-tying 51-yard field goal that hit the left upright, went through the uprights, hit the support post behind the crossbar, then bounded back onto the field. To the naked eye, it looked no good. But after a seemingly endless delay the officials—without the aid of replay, which isn’t used on field goals—decided correctly that the field goal was indeed good. The Browns went on to win in overtime. Never seen anything like that, have we?
Four weeks later the Browns and Bills locked up in an 8-0 game in a veritable blizzard. Of course the hero of the game was kicker Phil Dawson, who connected from 35 and 49 yards on a day in which staying on your feet was difficult, never mind using them to score points.
Speaking of feet, Vikings rookie Adrian Peterson used his to rush for 1,341 yards in 14 games, ending the season with a yards-per-rush average of 5.6. And in a Week 9 game against San Diego, he set the NFL single-game rushing record with 296 yards.
This was the year that the cream rose to the top. The Patriots, Cowboys, Packers, and Colts combined for a record of 55-9 (52-6 if you take out the games against each other). This season is tied with 1998 for best record among the top 4 teams in the 16-game season era (the Vikings, Falcons, Broncos, and Jets combined for 9 losses that season).
And you want big games? Meaningful games between top teams that live up to the hype? How about the Patriots throttling the Chargers in Week 2 after “spygate” erupted? Or the Patriots beating the Cowboys in one of the few 5-0 vs. 5-0 games in league history? Or Green Bay winning in Denver on Monday night on a Favre overtime touchdown pass? Want more? The 8-0 Patriots coming back from 10 down in the 4th quarter to beat the 7-0 Colts springs to mind. Or the Chargers beating those same Colts the next week on Sunday night. And the Cowboys knocking off the Packers on a Thursday night NFL Network special. Finally, the Patriots putting the finishing touches on an undefeated season by coming back from 12 down to beat the Giants in a “meaningless” game watched by 34.5 million people on three networks.
NBC’s flex schedule worked perfectly this season, giving us week after week of important games. The NFL Network tried in vain to find its place on the American television set but needed an assist in the final week. Even the Dolphins’ run at infamy made this season special. Call me crazy, but it just might have been the best season ever.
Which brings us back to the Patriots. Their remarkable run to 16-0 just might have been the greatest NFL season of all time. The detractors will point out that the Patriots faced the Dolphins and Jets twice (those two teams went a combined 5-27). But division rivals and 4-12 squads are the kinds of teams that usually derail these kinds of runs at history (the 1990 49ers lost their first game to the 5-11 Rams). I’ll make no apologies for the teams the Patriots faced this season.
As a matter of fact, they played and beat four division winners (two on the road), six playoff teams, and eight teams that finished 8-8 or better. If not for the Patriots, the Browns, Bills, and Eagles might have made the playoffs this year. The Redskins were able to rebound from their loss at the hands of the Patriots. It will be interesting to see how the Giants fare following last week’s showdown.
What else made this Patriots season so special? They outscored their opponents by 315 points. 10 other teams scored fewer than 315 points. The seasons Tom Brady and Randy Moss had. (Can we call the trade of a 4th round pick for Randy Moss the greatest NFL trade of all time?)
Or how about how in their four closest games (against the Colts, Eagles, Ravens, and Giants), they outscored their opponents 46-21 in the 4th quarter? Or the fact that their largest deficit of the season—12 points—came with 24 minutes and 12 seconds remaining in game 16?
Their 44 punts were the fewest punts by a team in a 16-game season. The previous record of fewest punts by a Patriots team was 49. That was set in the strike-shortened 1982 season when the team played 9 games.
Wes Welker was a joy to watch. The relentless passing attack was often poetry in motion. Their video game-esque demolitions of the Dolphins, Redskins, and Bills, sandwiched around the win in Indianapolis, were some of the most amazing performances the league has ever seen.
Prior to the Colts game, I wrote: “Tom Brady has thrown for 20 touchdowns and the Patriots have outscored their opponents 179-45. In the first half.” For the season, those numbers were: 32 touchdowns for Brady, and a 333-137 advantage over their opponents in the first half. Only Tony Romo (36) threw more touchdowns on the season than Brady did in the first half. The 333 first half points the Patriots scored were one fewer than the Redskins and Buccaneers scored all season. And the Titans only scored 301. Those are three playoff teams.
The numbers are staggering, the competition was formidable, and the season was unforgettable. It was a season for the ages, and quite possibly the greatest season of all time.NFL Playoff Round 1 Selections
Washington (+3½) over Seattle Everyone likes the Redskins for the emotion factor, and other than that the only reason to like them in this game is that in the last three years 2 underdogs covered in Round 1, so this one will be one of mine. I know Seattle is tough at home and Washington quarterback is Todd Collins is untested, but I’ll go with Washington anyway. One more week of the feel good story for Joe Gibbs and his troops. Pick: Redskins 21, Seahawks 20
Pittsburgh (+2½) over Jacksonville I’ve gone back and forth on this one all week. There’s no way the Steelers could lose at home to the Jaguars twice, go with Pittsburgh. Jacksonville’s playing much better football than Pittsburgh, go with Jacksonville. Mike Tomlin’s playoff inexperience. Jacksonville’s recent playoff losses. Which way to go? I’m going with Pittsburgh to win a close one at home. Pick: Steelers 26, Jaguars 23
Tampa Bay (-2½) over New York Giants That was a valiant effort by the Giants last week and an impressive performance against the undefeated Patriots. But I don’t think they have a chance in this one. Add it all up: the starters played a playoff-type game last week while Tampa’s been resting for two weeks; when the Patriots pressured Eli Manning in the 2nd half, he went 9-14 for 70 yards with one interception, one center-QB fumble, and one sack—expect a lot of pressure this week from the Bucs; it’s Jon Gruden and Jeff Garcia against Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning. Sounds like a Tampa win to me. Pick: Buccaneers 29, Giants 15
San Diego (-10) over Tennessee Four of the last five teams favored by 7 or more in the 1st round of the playoffs won and covered. And this Chargers team is far superior in talent to the Titans. As a matter of fact, I’m not even sure how the Titans are in the playoffs. They scored just four more points than they allowed, had four more turnovers than forced turnovers, and got just 9 touchdown passes against 17 interceptions out of Vince Young. Their only win against a playoff team (and the Colts game last week doesn’t count) was way back in Week 1 when they beat Jacksonville. Not even Chargers coach Norv Turner can stop the Chargers from blowing out the Titans in this one. Pick: Chargers 38, Titans 13
If these results happen, it sets us up for a pretty good Round 2 with Pats-Steelers, Colts-Chargers, Cowboys-Redskins, and Packers-Bucs. Well, three intriguing games anyway.
I didn’t want Week 17 of the NFL season to arrive without providing one last set of picks. It’s been an up and down season for the Sports in a Can handicapping department, but a 10-6 finish would put me over .500 for the season. And that’s what we’re aiming for.
Week 17 is always an odd week. Some teams are resting players, some teams aren’t. Some teams are playing for playoff spots, some teams are playing for pride. The spreads often don’t make sense heading into the games. In the last two seasons, we’ve had 8 underdogs cover in Week 17 both times (with 5 underdogs winning outright last year and 6 the year before). The trick, as always, is figuring out which underdogs to back.
New England (-14) over NY GIANTS
Buffalo (+7½) over PHILADELPHIA
Carolina (-2½) over TAMPA BAY
MIAMI (+2½) over Cincinnati
Detroit (+3½) over GREEN BAY
HOUSTON (-6) over Jacksonville
New Orleans (-2) over CHICAGO
CLEVELAND (-10½) over San Francisco
Seattle (+1) over ATLANTA
Dallas (+9) over WASHINGTON
NY JETS (-6) over Kansas City
DENVER (+3) over Minnesota
BALTIMORE (+3½) over Pittsburgh
San Diego (-8) over OAKLAND
St. Louis (+6) over ARIZONA
Tennessee (-6½) over INDIANAPOLIS
Last year, the Christmas weekend was interrupted by the NFL. With Christmas Eve on Sunday, there was no time for caroling, sleigh rides, or any of the other traditional fare. No, I had to sit inside and watch football all day. Thanks a lot, NFL.
It’s a little better this year, as Sunday is the 23rd of December. But I must have missed the memo that said it was OK to have a sporting event on at night on Christmas Eve. That’s right, Monday Night Football brings you Denver at San Diego, just a few hours before Santa arrives on the East Coast. Apparently nothing is sacred anymore.
Looks like I’ll need to have all of the gifts wrapped and under the tree by kickoff Saturday night (why yes, Virginia, there’s also a Saturday night game this week). And then it’s wall-to-wall football through Monday night.
Pittsburgh at St. Louis On the first day of Christmas, my true love gave to me, a Steelers team that’s suddenly lost two in a row against a Rams team whose three wins have come against San Francisco, Atlanta, and (inexplicably) New Orleans. My only hope for this game is that Bryant Gumble is once again absent and Tom Hammond replaces him for the second week in a row. Hammond was a breath of fresh air last week compared to the dreary Gumble. (Is he getting paid for the NFL Network gig? He sounds as if he’s doing the play-by-play of a bad golf tournament.)
Pick: Pittsburgh (-7½)
Dallas at Carolina You’ve got to love Terrell Owens: “Right now, Jessica Simpson is not a fan favorite in this locker room or in Texas Stadium. I think with everything that has happened, and obviously the way Tony played and the comparison between her and Carrie Underwood, I think a lot of people feel like she's probably taking his focus away. Other than that, she was at the top of my list until last week.” Apparently he was kidding about quarterback Tony Romo’s current and former girlfriends, but he sure sounds like the kind of guy you want on your team, doesn’t he? Pick: Dallas (-10½)
Cleveland at Cincinnati Oh the weather outside is frightful… How much fun was that Cleveland-Buffalo game last week? Talk about a whiteout. Rain or snow showers expected for this one, but the temps look to be too high for another blizzard game. Maybe we’ll have better luck in the Buffalo game, since it snows in Buffalo 287 days per year on average. Pick: Cincinnati (+3)
Green Bay at Chicago Last week I told you not trust anyone who says, “This team has nothing to play for” when making picks. Five of the eight teams who had playoff aspirations and were playing sub-.500 teams did not cover the spread (and two lost outright). This week there are 10 games that fall into this category (including this one). I’m going with four of the underdogs, although there will probably be more that cover. The trick, as always, is finding the right ones (and I went just 3-5 picking these types of games last week). Pick: Chicago (+8½)
Houston at Indianapolis It’s time once again for the Colts to enjoy their late season struggles. They barely beat Oakland last week and Jacksonville two weeks before that. A similar thing happened to them last year. Of course, they did win the Super Bowl last year. Pick: Houston (+7)
Kansas City at Detroit (-4½)
Do you realize that since October 18, Boston’s big three sports teams (the Red Sox, Patriots, and Celtics) are a combined 36- 3 with a World Series title, the best record in the NBA, and the potential for an historic undefeated season in the NFL? How can I focus on Kansas City-Detroit when those kinds of numbers are out there? Pick: Detroit (-5)
