The passage of time in the NFL is marked by decades and the teams that tower over the rest of the field. Various teams win titles throughout each decade, but one team always wins the most championships and stands out as the Team of the Decade.
This is the way it’s been ever since the Green Bay Packers rolled to five NFL titles (including wins in the first two Super Bowls) in the 1960s. The Pittsburgh Steelers won four Super Bowls in the ‘70s, the San Francisco 49ers won four Super Bowls in the ‘80s, and the Dallas Cowboys won three Super Bowls in the ‘90s.
With three Super Bowls remaining in this decade (the ‘00s?), the Patriots are poised to claim the latest Team of the Decade designation. If they win this Sunday they will have four Super Bowl titles this decade. The most Super Bowl wins any other team has is one. Even if they were to somehow lose this weekend, only the Colts or Steelers would have a chance of matching their three titles and possessing a decade-long cache of winning. (Sorry, but even if the Ravens or Buccaneers win the next two Super Bowls, or the Giants win the next three, none of them could possibly be considered Team of the Decade.)
That means there’s even more pressure on the Patriots this Sunday. A win gives them the Super Bowl title, the first 19-0 season in NFL history, and Team of the Decade status.
Let’s take a look at the curriculum vitae for each Team of the Decade.
Green Bay Packers (1960s)
From 1960 through 1969, the Green Bay Packers were the class of the NFL. They had just one losing season (1968, the year after head coach Vince Lombardi stepped down) and won their division six times. The Packers won five of the six NFL Championship Games they played, and won the first two Super Bowls in NFL history. The Packers defined what the NFL was all about during the early years.
Best team of the decade: 1962. The ’62 Packers went 13-1, led the league in both offense and defense, outscored their opponents 415-148, and won the NFL Championship on the road, defeating the New York Giants 16-7.
Worst loss of the decade: The 1960 NFL Championship Game. Taking a 13-10 in the 4th quarter, the Eagles returned the ensuing kickoff 58 yards and eventually took a 17-13 lead. The Packers were stopped on the 8-yard line as time expired. The loss was their first (and only) postseason loss under Lombardi.
Defining games of the decade: Super Bowl I (a 35-10 thrashing of the upstart AFL Kansas City Chiefs) and the 1967 NFL Championship Game (the “Ice Bowl,” a 21-17 win over the Dallas Cowboys in sub-zero weather).
If not for the Packers, the Team of the Decade might have been: The Cleveland Browns. The Browns won five division titles in the ‘60s and took home the 1964 NFL Championship. They lost the 1965 Championship to Green Bay and did not return to the big game for the rest of the decade.
Pittsburgh Steelers (1970s)
Head coach Chuck Noll turned the Steelers from a 1-13 team in 1969 into the best team of the ‘70s. They had just two losing seasons (1970 and 1971), won their division eight years in a row, won four of the six AFC Championship Games they played, and won four Super Bowls. The Steel Curtain defense remains one of the iconic symbols of the NFL.
Best team of the decade: 1978. The ’78 Steelers went 14-2, led the league in defense, and had the 5th best offense. They won their first two playoff games by a combined score of 67-15 before defeating the Dallas Cowboys 35-31 in the Super Bowl.
Worst loss of the decade: The 1976 AFC Championship Game. Many people believe that Pittsburgh’s best team of the ‘70s was the ’76 edition. For the third straight year they played the Oakland Raiders in the Championship game, but with running backs Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier (who had combined for over 2,000 yards in the regular season) both out with injuries, the Raiders won 24-7 to advance to the Super Bowl.
Defining games of the decade: 1972 playoff victory over Oakland (that game that featured the “Immaculate Reception”) and Super Bowl XIII (their 35-31 win over Dallas is considered by many to be the best Super Bowl game of all time).
If not for the Steelers, the Team of the Decade might have been: The Oakland Raiders. The Raiders had 10 straight winning seasons under head coach John Madden in the ‘70s, but had just one Super Bowl win to show for their efforts. The Raiders lost playoff games to the Steelers three times in the ‘70s, with the Steelers winning Super Bowl titles twice after knocking off the Raiders in the AFC Championship game.
San Francisco 49ers (1980s)
Bill Walsh took over a 2-14 team in 1978 and turned the 49ers into one of the league’s most respected and envied franchises. The 49ers had just two losing seasons (1980 and 1982), won their division seven times, made the playoffs eight times, won four of the five NFC Championship Games they played, and won four Super Bowls. At the end of their run, Bill Walsh, quarterback Joe Montana, and wide receiver Jerry Rice were all considered with the best that ever coached and played the game.
Best team of the decade: 1984. The ’84 San Francisco 49ers went 15-1 with the league’s best defense and 2nd-best offense (second only to Dan Marino’s record-setting Dolphins). They won their first two playoff games by a combined score of 44-10 before defeating Marino’s Dolphins 38-16 in the Super Bowl.
Worst loss of the decade: The 1983 NFC Championship Game. Although the 49ers only went 10-6 in 1983, they were one win away from the Super Bowl when they traveled to Washington to take on the Redskins. Trailing 21-0 in the 4th quarter, the 49ers scored three quick touchdowns and tied the game 21-21 with less than seven minutes to play. But the Redskins—aided by a controversial pass interference call—marched 78 yards to set up kicker Mark Moseley for a 25-yard game-winning field goal. Moseley—who had missed four field goals throughout the game—nailed this one and sent the Redskins to the Super Bowl.
Defining games of the decade: The 1982 NFC Championship Game (the game that featured “The Catch”) and Super Bowl XXIII (Montana leads a 92-yard touchdown drive with 3:10 to go in the game).
If not for the 49ers, the Team of the Decade might have been: The Chicago Bears. The Bears won one Super Bowl in the ‘80s but lost to the 49ers twice in the NFC Championship Game (including once at home). The 49ers won the Super Bowl both times.
Dallas Cowboys (1990s)
The once-proud Cowboys were 3-13 during legendary head coach Tom Landry’s final season and fell to 1-15 in Jimmie Johnson’s first season. But three different head coaches—Johnson, Barry Switzer, and Chan Gailey—would lead the Cowboys to winning seasons in all but three years (1990, 1997, and 1999), six division titles, eight playoff appearances, three wins in four NFC Championship Games, and three Super Bowl titles.
Best team of the decade: 1992. The Cowboys went 13-3 and finished with the 2nd best offense and 5th best defense in the league. They won the NFC Championship Game in San Francisco and dismantled the Buffalo Bills 52-17 in the Super Bowl.
Worst loss of the decade: The 1994 NFC Championship Game. The Cowboys played the 49ers in the Championship Game for the 3rd straight year, and quarterback Troy Aikman entered the game undefeated in the playoffs (7-0). Aikman’s first interception of the game was returned for a touchdown. Wide receiver Cowboys wide receiver Michael Irvin lost a fumble on the next Dallas possession and kick returner Kevin Williams fumbled a kickoff, allowing San Francisco to take a 21-0 1st quarter lead, on their way to a 38-28 victory.
Defining games of the decade: The 1992 NFC Championship Game (Dallas won the game in San Francisco to advance to the franchise’s first Super Bowl in 14 years) and the 1995 NFC Championship Game (one year after losing to the 49ers in the penultimate game, the Cowboys withstood Brett Favre and the surging Packers 38-27 to advance to their third Super Bowl of the decade).
If not for the Cowboys, the Team of the Decade might have been: The San Francisco 49ers. With one Super Bowl and two NFC Championship Game losses to the Cowboys, the team of the ‘90s could have been the same as the team of the ‘80s if not for Dallas.
New England Patriots (2000s)
The New England Patriots have seven straight winning seasons, six division titles, six playoff appearances, four wins in five AFC Championship Games, and three Super Bowl titles. They also own the first undefeated season in 35 years and head to the Super Bowl this week in search of their fourth title of the decade.
Best team of the decade: 2007. The Patriots went 16-0 this season and are in the discussion as one of the greatest teams in NFL history.
Worst loss of the decade: The 2006 AFC Championship Game. The Patriots led the Indianapolis Colts 21-6 at halftime but the Colts scored 32 second half points on the way to a 38-34 win.
Defining games of the decade: The 2001 Divisional Playoff (“The Snow Game” or “The Tuck Rule Game”) and Super Bowl XXXVI (one of the greatest upsets in Super Bowl history).
If not for the Patriots, the Team of the Decade might have been: Either the Indianapolis Colts or the Pittsburgh Steelers. Both have one Super Bowl title and two playoff losses to the Patriots.
Everyone predicted a Patriots-Giants Super Bowl, right? But what else should we have expected in a season in which the only thing we could count on each week was a Patriots victory?
As the AFC Championship Game wore on and the Chargers were (in the words of Teddy KGB in Rounders), “hanging around, hanging around,” it became painfully obvious that this would not be one of those Patriots blowouts from earlier in the season that we had grown to love. But just as they had done 17 times before, the 2007 Patriots won the game. This time the script was decidedly different. It included a red zone interception by Tom Brady (his first since the Broncos disaster from two years ago), a power running game by Laurence Maroney and the offensive line, and solid red zone defense.
It all added up to 18-0 and a trip to the Super Bowl. Just as expected. But not quite how we expected.
In the NFC Championship Game, the Giants and Packers waged a battle of last man standing (in the Arctic). On a brutally cold Wisconsin night, each team passed the ball far more than predicted—and with better results than one would expect. But perhaps the Packers should have found some way to run the ball more than 13 times (the Giants had 39 running plays). Maybe then the time of possession battle wouldn’t have been so pronounced (the Giants had the ball for 40 minutes compared to the Packers’ 22). And maybe they wouldn’t have been relying on Brett Favre to remain the new Brett Favre—instead of the one from years past who was the mad gunslinger. His final interception was reminiscent of many of his old head-scratching throws.
Give the Giants credit. They did what they needed to do to win. It was their 10th straight road win and their sixth win in their last eight games. Now they head to the Super Bowl to face the Patriots in a game dripping with irony: The two teams played one of the most entertaining, highly-rated “meaningless” games in NFL history in Week 17. Now they’ll play again for the NFL championship.
And who knows—perhaps that Week 17 game is one of the reasons the Giants are going to the Super Bowl. Every team that rested their starters down the stretch was bounced from the playoffs this year. But the Giants and Patriots—with nothing to play for other than history—played until the final gun of their final game. Maybe the Giants played their way in, starting with the toe-to-toe match-up with the undefeated Patriots.
History will again be on the line when Super Bowl XLII rolls around. The Patriots will be trying to cap off the first 19-0 season in NFL history, while the Giants will be trying to defeat the only 18-0 team in NFL history.
In this unpredictably predictable season, would it shock anyone if the Giants knocked off the Patriots? OK, that would be a shock. Consider this: The Patriots won 6 more games than the Giants in the regular season. It’s the most lopsided match-up in terms of wins in Super Bowl history. The next widest gap between Super Bowl entrants in the last 40 years was 3 wins, which has happened six times. Five of those games were won by the team with more wins—and one of them was the biggest blowout in Super Bowl history, San Francisco’s 55-10 drubbing of Denver in Super Bowl XXIV.
The lone upset when a 3-game win disparity was involved? The 2001 New England Patriots, who knocked off the Greatest Show on Turf Rams and started the current dynasty.
History is on the Patriots’ side. And if they need a reminder of what can happen in the biggest game of the year, they need only break out their own game film from six years ago.
As matchbox twenty sings, “Let’s see how far we’ve come.”
Eighteen weeks after the 2007 season began, we’ve got an AFC Championship match-up that seemed plausible prior to the season, and an NFC match-up that no one saw coming back in August.
The road to Super Bowl XLII has been long and winding. With just one Sunday of football remaining before the hype truly begins, let’s take a look at what we’ve learned during this NFL season and postseason.
Jacksonville’s in the wrong division Heck, they might even be in the wrong conference. They’ve lost five out of six to Indianapolis, leaving them without the opportunity to win their division year after year. This means a Wild Card spot at best and no real chance to make it to the Super Bowl. If they were in the NFC they might just be a perennial powerhouse.
This is a shame for the Jaguars, because they showed last week just how good they can be in their battle royale with the undefeated Patriots. It might have been the last tough game the Patriots have this year to tell you the truth. But the Jags still lost, and if they don’t find a way to get past the Colts (or get switched to a different division) painful road playoff losses remain in the Jaguars’ future.
The NFC is a crapshoot Seven different teams have won an NFC division in the last two years. Only Seattle repeated as division champion this year. In the AFC, three of the four division champions repeated, with New England and Indianapolis winning their divisions for five straight years. If I needed to do my NFL 2008 preview right now, I’d go with New England, Indianapolis, and San Diego to repeat again, and Cleveland to get over the hump. And in the NFC? Who knows? How about Arizona, Washington, Detroit, and Atlanta?
Offense is in It wasn’t just Tom Brady and Randy Moss and their record-setting seasons. Scoring was up across the board and there was no defense that stood out like in seasons past. The last Super Bowl champion that rode their offense to the title was the ’99 Rams (and that team actually gave up just 22 points over their final two games). The last seven champions held their first playoff opponent under 20 points, and all but the ’04 Patriots held their first two playoff opponents under 20 points. This week’s favorites to make the Super Bowl, the Patriots and Packers, each gave up 20 points in their first playoff games (and scored 31 and 42, respectively). This season, and playoffs, is all about the offense.
Resting players = losing playoff recipe Tampa Bay rested their players for an unprecedented two straight weeks then lost at home to the Giants. The Cowboys and Colts both rested players prior to their bye week and both lost at home. Meanwhile, the Giants and Patriots battled to the death prior to the playoffs with nothing to gain and each stands one game from the Super Bowl. It’s a trend to keep an eye on for future postseasons.
Maybe it’s the Chargers who are the problem After the Chargers questioned the Patriots’ class after last year’s playoff tussle (Public Enemy #1) I started to wonder if what the players were saying was true. But then I watched the Chargers jaw with the Broncos. And the Titans. And the Colts’ fans. And I thought, “maybe it’s the Chargers who have no class.” I’m just saying…
It’s a good thing Peyton won a ring last year Watching the Colts blow another playoff game at home last week made me even angrier that the Patriots lost to them last year. But the perfect season wouldn’t have happened without that loss (more on that in a moment), so I guess in retrospect it was a good thing. For both the Patriots and Peyton Manning. The Colts won the Super Bowl, did it by going through the Patriots, and Peyton got his ring.
By the way he and his teammates played last week leads me to believe it might be his only ring. His best receiver was barely able to take the field (and then he fumbled when he did) and the offense’s play-calling was awful while the execution was even worse. Last year just might have been it for the Colts.
Yes, everyone, I’m sorry, but the Patriots are this good It took the perfect storm of events to produce the first 17-0 team since the ’72 Dolphins. But that storm arrived. One year ago this weekend the first brick in the foundation was laid, as the Patriots’ offense couldn’t catch a key pass to win the game and the aging defense ran out of gas against the Colts. Then Belichick had to coach the Pro Bowl and I believe he secretly vowed to never be there again. New England loaded up with three wide receivers and the best defensive free agent on the market. Finally, “spygate” occurred, galvanized the team, and the rest is history.
I think Belichick’s defensive game plan for the last six weeks has been to play as vanilla as possible until the second half. If the game’s been close, he releases the hounds. Meanwhile, the offense continues to be a nearly unstoppable machine. It’s reached the point in which the first opponent’s turnover or punt signals that the game is officially over.
Championship Weekend Picks
San Diego (+14½) over New England I’ve incorrectly picked the Patriots’ games against the spread in each of the last four weeks, so I’ll go opposite what I really think will happen in this one and say the Chargers somehow cover the spread. They barely won in Indy, flew back to San Diego, flew across the country again with one fewer day off than the undefeated Patriots, they have a gimpy quarterback, running back, and tight end, the Patriots are clicking on all cylinders, and it’s going to be 12 degrees. It all spells blowout to me. But they’ll probably score a late touchdown to cover the spread, just because I keep getting it wrong. Prediction: Patriots 34, Chargers 20
Green Bay (-7) over New York Giants I think the Giants finally run out of steam this week. The Packers have been lighting it up, and were most impressive after falling behind 14-0 last week. On a slow track like Lambeau in the winter, their defense plays really fast, and Favre has reinvented himself in the twilight of his career. This one will probably be close until late in the game as the Pack pulls away. Prediction: Packers 30, Giants 21
3rd-6, PIT26 2:56 B. Roethlisberger rushed to the left for 1 yard gain
One play shouldn’t define a game or a season, but more often than not one play from a playoff game stands out. Last week it was Ben Roethlisberger’s failed 3rd-and-6 bootleg. The Steelers punted, the Jaguars drove to the 7-yard line, kicked a field goal, and won the game.
That one play stands out more than any other play in the game. More than David Garrard’s 4th down run that kept the Jaguars’ drive alive. More than the Steelers’ failed two-point conversion attempt from the 12-yard line.
Why the 3rd down run by Roethlisberger? Because it showed such a clear misunderstanding of what was needed.
Let’s start with the first 2-point try. The Steelers had just scored to cut the lead to 28-23 with 14 minutes left in the game. Sure, 14 minutes is a lot of time, but two drives earlier the Jaguars had held the ball for almost five minutes and scored a touchdown. Time was indeed running out on the Steelers, and two points was going to get them within a field goal (instead of a touchdown) and increase their chances of winning the game. Even after a (phantom) holding penalty pushed the Steelers back to the 12-yard line, I have no issues with the Steelers going for two there. It showed that they were willing to do whatever they needed to do to win the game.
On the other hand, a Roethlisberger designed rollout/run on 3rd-and-6? That has “I’m so afraid of a turnover that I don’t even want my quarterback to attempt to give the ball to anyone else on the team for fear that something bad will happen” written all over it. That’s the mentality that losing teams have, not a team with a chance to win a playoff game.
That 3rd down play was the culmination o####ame in which the only times the Steelers scored were when they played aggressively. The Steelers opened the game with six straight pass plays (and ended up scoring a touchdown), and Roethlisberger threw on seven consecutive downs at one point in the game. Granted he had three interceptions in the 1st half. But when the chips were down and they needed yards, Big Ben gave them yards.
To take the lead and then go ultra-conservative was inviting trouble. And trouble came a-knocking in the form of David Garrad’s 4th down scramble. That was a designed run out of the shotgun by a guy that can run, and was coach Jack Del Rio’s way of saying, “we are not losing this game.”
A lesson Steelers’ head coach Mike Tomlin needs to learn. NFL Playoffs Round 2 Selections
It was a 2-2 week against the spread last week (and an abysmal 1-3 straight up). Two underdogs covered, as I predicted. Just not the ones I picked. (The story of my season this year.)
As we head into Round 2, you’ll hear a lot of people talking about how the top four teams rarely all make it to the Championship round. But it has happened twice in the last four years, and it seems likely to happen again this year.
Forget the fact that the four teams with byes are clearly the four best teams in the NFL and they’ve all had a week off to prepare. Just look at the eight teams that played last week for a moment. The Steelers blew their game at home but the team that beat them tried to give the game away in the 4th quarter, allowing 19 points in 8 minutes and 32 seconds. The Titans’ game plan was apparently to try and lull the Chargers to sleep, which almost worked, except for the Chargers’ game plan of doing their best Marty Schottenheimer impression until the 2nd half. (Which reminds me: Everyone who says that this season was more successful under Norv Turner than last season under Schottenheimer just because the Chargers won a playoff game is delusional. The Chargers went 14-2 last year and had a bye in the first round. Basically, this season as of right now is still not better than last year because San Diego must go on the road for their next playoff game. If the Chargers pull off the upset this week in Indianapolis, then we can talk.)
The Redskins played their sixth straight game on pure emotion while the Seahawks played some of the worst football known to man for 52 minutes and then played well for a grand total of 5 minutes, enough time to score 22 fourth quarter points, with 14 coming on interception returns for touchdowns. And Tampa Bay spent three weeks resting players and preparing for the Giants and then came out with the worst game plan in history, while the Giants’ game plan was to keep Eli Manning on a tight leash (20-27, 185 yards) and hope the defense (1 sack, 3 turnovers) could win the game.
My point? Could any one of those eight teams have beaten any of the four teams on a bye? I say no. I think all four home teams win this weekend, with only the Giants coming close and covering the spread.
Green Bay (-7½) over Seattle A rematch of the fantastic 2004 playoff game in which Matt Hasselbeck declared—after the Seahawks won the coin toss in over time—“we’ll take the ball and we’re going to score!” And then he threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown. I’ll tell you what I’m tired of hearing about: Playoff experience (the Packers have little, the Seahawks have a lot). In Joe Montana’s 13 non-Super Bowl championship seasons, did the 49ers lose because the other team had more playoff experience, or was the other team just better sometimes? Something to think about, because the Packers are the better team. By far. Pick: Packers 30, Seahawks 13
New England (-13) over Jacksonville Can everyone please just stop with propping up the Jaguars as world beaters? They played a very solid first half against the Steelers last week and then came through when they needed to in the 4th quarter. But their quarterback completed just 9 passes for the entire game. I just don’t see it. The Patriots are rested and ready for the first time in a month. They haven’t had an opportunity to run up the score on an opponent in eight weeks. I don’t think this one will even be close. Pick: Patriots 42, Jaguars 16
Indianapolis (-9) over San Diego I thought that the spread on this one was too high until I remembered how bad the Chargers looked last week. The same Titans team that the Colts almost beat with their backups had the Chargers dead to rights with about 20 minutes left in the game. The Titans led 6-3 and the Chargers had a 3rd-and-4. Rivers completed a pass to Tomlinson for a 1st down and San Diego eventually pulled away. This same Chargers team—without tight end Antonio Gates—is supposed to travel across the country and beat a rested Colts team in the dome? Pick: Colts 34, Chargers 17
NY Giants (+7½) over Dallas With the Jessica Simpson distraction looming over the Cowboys’ heads, there’s no way their focus is there for this game. (Just kidding. That might have been the most ridiculous “controversy” in the history of controversies.) Terrell Owens is hurt, the Cowboys have not played well the last few weeks of the season, and this Giants team is apparently better than I’ve given them credit for, especially defensively. The Giants bring enough pressure to disrupt the Cowboys’ offense, and save for one bad 4th quarter pass against the Patriots, Eli Manning has played very well the last two weeks. Plus this will be the third time the Cowboys and Giants play each other this year, and five of the last six playoff games between division foes has been decided by two touchdowns or less. I have a funny feeling that the Giants will keep this one close, but I just can’t see the Cowboys losing this one. Pick: Cowboys 27, Giants 24
If the four favorites win, we’ll have the best final four since the ’98 season when the 15-1 Vikings took on the 14-2 Falcons and the 14-2 Broncos played the 12-4 Jets. The Vikings had set all of the offensive records but fell to the surprising Falcons in overtime, while the Parcells-coached Jets led 10-0 late in the 3rd quarter before the Broncos stormed back for a 23-10 win.
And if it’s Patriots-Colts and Cowboys-Packers, settle in for one of the best Championship Sundays in a long time.
This year’s NFL regular season brought us the renaissance of a legend, a team rising above the death of one of their own players, the craziest field goal we’ve ever seen, one of the best in-game snowstorms we’ve ever seen, a rookie sensation taking the league by storm, a mere 9 losses registered by the league’s top 4 teams (with three of those losses coming in games against each other), and heavily-hyped games that lived up the hype.
Oh, and the first team in NFL history to go 16-0 (more on whether or not the Patriots’ season was the greatest of all time in a moment).
Maybe I’m in the “whatever is new is always great” club today, but the NFL season that concluded last week sure seemed like one of the best to come along in ages. Brett Favre’s transformation from old man winter (71.8 passer rating with 38 TDs, 47 INTs, and 12 wins the previous two seasons) to the lion in winter (95.7 passer rating with 28 TDs, 15 INTs, and 13 wins this season) was an incredible sight to behold.
Just as incredible was watching the Washington Redskins—who lost Sean Taylor, one of their best defensive players to a shooting death—go 4-0 after regrouping and make the playoffs. And Taylor was elected to the Pro Bowl after his death.
In Week 11, Cleveland kicker Phil Dawson kicked a game-tying 51-yard field goal that hit the left upright, went through the uprights, hit the support post behind the crossbar, then bounded back onto the field. To the naked eye, it looked no good. But after a seemingly endless delay the officials—without the aid of replay, which isn’t used on field goals—decided correctly that the field goal was indeed good. The Browns went on to win in overtime. Never seen anything like that, have we?
Four weeks later the Browns and Bills locked up in an 8-0 game in a veritable blizzard. Of course the hero of the game was kicker Phil Dawson, who connected from 35 and 49 yards on a day in which staying on your feet was difficult, never mind using them to score points.
Speaking of feet, Vikings rookie Adrian Peterson used his to rush for 1,341 yards in 14 games, ending the season with a yards-per-rush average of 5.6. And in a Week 9 game against San Diego, he set the NFL single-game rushing record with 296 yards.
This was the year that the cream rose to the top. The Patriots, Cowboys, Packers, and Colts combined for a record of 55-9 (52-6 if you take out the games against each other). This season is tied with 1998 for best record among the top 4 teams in the 16-game season era (the Vikings, Falcons, Broncos, and Jets combined for 9 losses that season).
And you want big games? Meaningful games between top teams that live up to the hype? How about the Patriots throttling the Chargers in Week 2 after “spygate” erupted? Or the Patriots beating the Cowboys in one of the few 5-0 vs. 5-0 games in league history? Or Green Bay winning in Denver on Monday night on a Favre overtime touchdown pass? Want more? The 8-0 Patriots coming back from 10 down in the 4th quarter to beat the 7-0 Colts springs to mind. Or the Chargers beating those same Colts the next week on Sunday night. And the Cowboys knocking off the Packers on a Thursday night NFL Network special. Finally, the Patriots putting the finishing touches on an undefeated season by coming back from 12 down to beat the Giants in a “meaningless” game watched by 34.5 million people on three networks.
NBC’s flex schedule worked perfectly this season, giving us week after week of important games. The NFL Network tried in vain to find its place on the American television set but needed an assist in the final week. Even the Dolphins’ run at infamy made this season special. Call me crazy, but it just might have been the best season ever.
Which brings us back to the Patriots. Their remarkable run to 16-0 just might have been the greatest NFL season of all time. The detractors will point out that the Patriots faced the Dolphins and Jets twice (those two teams went a combined 5-27). But division rivals and 4-12 squads are the kinds of teams that usually derail these kinds of runs at history (the 1990 49ers lost their first game to the 5-11 Rams). I’ll make no apologies for the teams the Patriots faced this season.
As a matter of fact, they played and beat four division winners (two on the road), six playoff teams, and eight teams that finished 8-8 or better. If not for the Patriots, the Browns, Bills, and Eagles might have made the playoffs this year. The Redskins were able to rebound from their loss at the hands of the Patriots. It will be interesting to see how the Giants fare following last week’s showdown.
What else made this Patriots season so special? They outscored their opponents by 315 points. 10 other teams scored fewer than 315 points. The seasons Tom Brady and Randy Moss had. (Can we call the trade of a 4th round pick for Randy Moss the greatest NFL trade of all time?)
Or how about how in their four closest games (against the Colts, Eagles, Ravens, and Giants), they outscored their opponents 46-21 in the 4th quarter? Or the fact that their largest deficit of the season—12 points—came with 24 minutes and 12 seconds remaining in game 16?
Their 44 punts were the fewest punts by a team in a 16-game season. The previous record of fewest punts by a Patriots team was 49. That was set in the strike-shortened 1982 season when the team played 9 games.
Wes Welker was a joy to watch. The relentless passing attack was often poetry in motion. Their video game-esque demolitions of the Dolphins, Redskins, and Bills, sandwiched around the win in Indianapolis, were some of the most amazing performances the league has ever seen.
Prior to the Colts game, I wrote: “Tom Brady has thrown for 20 touchdowns and the Patriots have outscored their opponents 179-45. In the first half.” For the season, those numbers were: 32 touchdowns for Brady, and a 333-137 advantage over their opponents in the first half. Only Tony Romo (36) threw more touchdowns on the season than Brady did in the first half. The 333 first half points the Patriots scored were one fewer than the Redskins and Buccaneers scored all season. And the Titans only scored 301. Those are three playoff teams.
The numbers are staggering, the competition was formidable, and the season was unforgettable. It was a season for the ages, and quite possibly the greatest season of all time.NFL Playoff Round 1 Selections
Washington (+3½) over Seattle Everyone likes the Redskins for the emotion factor, and other than that the only reason to like them in this game is that in the last three years 2 underdogs covered in Round 1, so this one will be one of mine. I know Seattle is tough at home and Washington quarterback is Todd Collins is untested, but I’ll go with Washington anyway. One more week of the feel good story for Joe Gibbs and his troops. Pick: Redskins 21, Seahawks 20
Pittsburgh (+2½) over Jacksonville I’ve gone back and forth on this one all week. There’s no way the Steelers could lose at home to the Jaguars twice, go with Pittsburgh. Jacksonville’s playing much better football than Pittsburgh, go with Jacksonville. Mike Tomlin’s playoff inexperience. Jacksonville’s recent playoff losses. Which way to go? I’m going with Pittsburgh to win a close one at home. Pick: Steelers 26, Jaguars 23
Tampa Bay (-2½) over New York Giants That was a valiant effort by the Giants last week and an impressive performance against the undefeated Patriots. But I don’t think they have a chance in this one. Add it all up: the starters played a playoff-type game last week while Tampa’s been resting for two weeks; when the Patriots pressured Eli Manning in the 2nd half, he went 9-14 for 70 yards with one interception, one center-QB fumble, and one sack—expect a lot of pressure this week from the Bucs; it’s Jon Gruden and Jeff Garcia against Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning. Sounds like a Tampa win to me. Pick: Buccaneers 29, Giants 15
San Diego (-10) over Tennessee Four of the last five teams favored by 7 or more in the 1st round of the playoffs won and covered. And this Chargers team is far superior in talent to the Titans. As a matter of fact, I’m not even sure how the Titans are in the playoffs. They scored just four more points than they allowed, had four more turnovers than forced turnovers, and got just 9 touchdown passes against 17 interceptions out of Vince Young. Their only win against a playoff team (and the Colts game last week doesn’t count) was way back in Week 1 when they beat Jacksonville. Not even Chargers coach Norv Turner can stop the Chargers from blowing out the Titans in this one. Pick: Chargers 38, Titans 13
If these results happen, it sets us up for a pretty good Round 2 with Pats-Steelers, Colts-Chargers, Cowboys-Redskins, and Packers-Bucs. Well, three intriguing games anyway.
Mitch Albom had his Tuesdays with Morrie. The Missus and I have our Sundays with Andrew Siciliano.
Let’s start at the beginning, shall we? Back in 2001 we switched from cable to DirecTV. Why? The cost savings was the number one reason. But a close second was a little something called the NFL Sunday Ticket. This package allowed me to watch every single NFL game that’s on every single weekend. No longer did I have to scan the TV listings each week only to be disappointed that I would have to suffer through a game between two crappy teams while the game of the day was being shown in someone else’s house. No, now I had the power.
For six NFL seasons I reveled each Sunday with the NFL package. Feet up, clicker in hand, I was able to flip from game to game, catching all of the NFL action known to man. Then we got HD. And I didn’t think life could get any better.
Until we met Andrew.
I was a little leery at first of this creation that DirecTV calls the Red Zone Channel. The stated purposed was to show any game—live—once one team entered the red zone (inside their opponents’ 20-yard line). I thought, “There’s no way this will be better than flipping around.” And, “How on earth could they pull this off?”
Shocking but true, they do pull it off. And I haven’t watched a full non-Patriots Sunday afternoon game since.
Who is Andrew, you ask? That would be Andrew Siciliano, the host of the Red Zone Channel. Andrew sits at a desk staring at a bank of 15 television screens and previews the upcoming games of the day. As soon as the first game kicks off, he “grabs the remote” and takes us live to that game. From that point forward—whenever another game seems more appealing—he “bounces out” into that game. If one game is about to head to a commercial, he takes us to another game. Immediately. As a matter of fact, this past Sunday, I saw my first advertisement of any kind a full hour-and-a-half into the day’s action. At that point, with most games heading into halftime, we go live to Andrew’s studio and a voiceover reads, “The Red Zone Channel. Brought to you by Sony.” Then Andrew shows highlights from the first half. That’s it. That brief ad for Sony (and the Best Buy logo that is displayed when a final box score from a game is flashed on the screen) is all the advertising I see all day. (There’s no way that can continue—DirecTV has to think of a way to make more money from the advertisers, but I’ll enjoy it while it lasts.)
And Andrew somehow pulls off this near-impossible job of watching as many as 10 games at once almost seamlessly. A team is about to punt? Andrew breaks in and says, “We don’t show you punts here at the Red Zone Channel. Unless Devin Hester is involved.” The announcers for a particular game throw it back to New York for a highlight from another game? Andrew breaks in and says, “You just saw that. Let’s grab the remote and bounce out to another game.” He’s quick, he’s funny, and he’s got what seems like a dream job, as hard as it probably is to do.
The only complaint I have for Andrew? Sometimes he quits early. Some Sundays around 5:30, when the second round of Sunday games are going on, he lets us know that he’s shutting down for the day. He tells us what channel to find all the games on, but he’s out of there. I understood it the Sunday that the Patriots were playing the Colts—I mean who wanted to watch Houston-Oakland or Cleveland-Seattle when the Game of the Millennium was being played? But on a typical Sunday afternoon, I want Andrew running the switchboard and taking me around the league. When I’m spending 10 straight hours on the couch, expending energy by using the remote is pretty taxing.
Other than that, I have no complaints. The Missus and I love our Sundays with Andrew. He does all the heavy lifting, and we don’t have to search around for the game of the day. And with the Patriots playing a night game seemingly every week, we’ve had some time to really bond with Andrew and appreciate the man’s dedication to the NFL.
Dwelling on our latest find got me thinking about the revolutionary technological advancements that have come our way in the last 10 years. And I wondered where I would place Andrew’s channel. Let’s check out one man’s list:
The Sports in a Can Top 10 Technological Advancements of the Last 10 Years
1. The Internet 2. Email 3. Cellphones 4. TiVo 5. Wireless Internet access 6. High Definition television 7. NFL Sunday Ticket 8. iTunes 9. Tollbooth transponders 10. The Red Zone Channel
This list assumes the technological advancement had an impact on me, personally, so hybrid cars don’t make the list. Not yet, anyway. Maybe my next car. And if you want to quibble with the timing of some of them, so be it. I don’t remember when Al Gore invented the Internet, I just don’t recall it impacting my life pre-1997. Same goes for email. And cellphones have come a looong way since you had to carry around a phone booth to make a call. Those are easily my top three because each can end the phrase: “Do you remember what we did before _____?” TiVo has worked its way up to #4 and is nearing life-changing potential.
Andrew’s channel lands in 10th position and could threaten tollbooth transponders in the near future. That’s how life-altering it is.
Last week we watched a whiparound that included Jacksonville pulling away from Buffalo, Oakland upsetting Kansas City, Seattle holding on against St. Louis, and Tampa Bay holding on against Washington. All live. On a Sunday when the top five teams in the NFL weren’t playing, the excitement level was still high in the Sports in a Can living room.
We’ve got five more Sundays with Andrew before the Red Zone Channel goes dark for the winter. We’ll be enjoying every last second.Week 13 NFL Picks
DALLAS (-7) over Green Bay ST. LOUIS (-3) over Atlanta Buffalo (+5½) over WASHINGTON MINNESOTA (-3½) over Detroit TENNESSEE (-3½) over Houston INDIANAPOLIS (-6½) over Jacksonville MIAMI (-1) over NY Jets San Diego (-5½) over KANSAS CITY Seattle (+3) over PHILADELPHIA San Francisco (+3) over CAROLINA Cleveland (+1) over ARIZONA Denver (-3½) over OAKLAND CHICAGO (+1½) over NY Giants Tampa Bay (+3) over NEW ORLEANS PITTSBURGH (-7) over Cincinnati New England (-20½) over BALTIMORE
With 9 wins under their belts and a certain once-undefeated coach clearly worried that his 1972 Dolphins will no longer remain the sole undefeated squad in NFL annals, just what are the odds that one of their remaining 10 opponents will stop the Patriots’ historic run? Let’s check out the official Sports in a Can odds. We’ve provided some real-life examples along with the odds.
182,138,880,000,000 to 1 New York Jets (Week 15) It’s not just the fact that the Jets are 1-8 and will be lucky to win 2 more games. Or the fact that this win will make the Patriots just the second team ever to get to 14-0. Or even the fact that two 13-0 teams in the last 10 years have failed to win their 14th game. All of those factoids are just extra bits of motivation for the real reason the Patriots cannot lose this game: The fact that in Belichick’s grudge match world, the Jets are public enemy #1. The 52 points the Patriots put up against the Redskins might look like New England was being kind when this one is over. (Is matching the 73-0 score of the 1940 NFL Championship Game a possibility?) The Vegas line will probably be the biggest we’ve ever seen. How many points would be too many for the average gambler? 25? 30? If the Jets were to somehow win this game it might qualify as the greatest upset in the history of sport. Same odds as: A meteor landing on your house. (And if you’re worried about a meteor landing on your house, you should feel relieved that the odds of that happening are over one hundred eighty-two trillion to one.)
300,000,000 to 1 Miami Dolphins (Week 16) When Week 16 rolls around and the 14-0 Patriots face off against the hapless Dolphins, there will be plenty of stories written about how the Dolphins will be defending the honor of the 1972 edition and how in 1985 Miami was the only team to defeat the Bears and their 46 defense. Then the game will start and everyone will remember that the ‘07 Dolphins don’t quite stack up with their ’85 namesake. The ’85 Dolphins went 12-4 thanks to Dan Marino’s not-too-shabby 4,137 yards passing and 30 TDs. (Their Super Bowl journey was derailed by the Wild Card Patriots.) This year’s edition? 0-9. And although one could look at their season and say that they’ve lost five games by 3 points and thus decide that they’ve been competitive, the eyes tell a different story. It’s almost time to start wondering about the odds of the Dolphins becoming just the second winless team in NFL history. Same odds as: Dying in a shark attack. Of course, the Dolphins have a better chance of winning this game than you do of dying in a dolphin attack.
40,000,000 to 1 at Buffalo Bills (Week 11) Since Bill Belichick took over in 2000, the Patriots have lost just once in Buffalo—the infamous “they hate their coach” game following the release (and subsequent signing by Buffalo) of Lawyer Milloy. This team is infinitely better than that Patriots team, and 4-game winning streak or not, the Bills will not be stopping the Patriots’ streak. This one got the flex Sunday night schedule treatment, and even if the officiating is as bad as it was in the Pats-Colts game, it still won’t matter. Coming off a bye week with the stretch run staring them in the face, it’s hard to imagine the Patriots dropping this one. Same odds as: Contracting the human version of mad cow disease. And I’m not sure you can get that from eating buffalo.
13,200,000 to 1 AFC Divisional opponent I don’t care if it’s San Diego, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Buffalo, or even Indianapolis—there is no way the Patriots finish the season with 16 wins only to lose their first playoff game. In their last three playoff seasons, the Patriots have won their home playoff opener by 21, 25, and 17 points. Is it really possible that this team would do worse than that? Same odds as: Becoming an astronaut. Space is a little colder than the Northeast in January.
9,000,000 to 1 Philadelphia (Week 12) at Baltimore (Week 13) I’m giving both of these teams the same odds. Sure, one is at home and one is on the road, but other than that variable these two teams are remarkably similar. They win games they should lose, they lose games they should win. I can’t figure either of them out. I just know that neither has a very good chance of beating the Patriots. Same odds as: Getting struck by lightning. Twice.
3,000,000 to 1 NFC Champion (Super Bowl XLII) 18-0. That’s what the Patriots would be entering this game if they don’t lose between now and then. And only Dallas, Green Bay, or some other surprise team would be standing in their way. They’ve already beaten the Cowboys—on the road—by 21. Does anyone really think that they’ll lose the biggest game of the season to a clearly inferior NFC team after losing 0 games on the way? Same odds as: Dying from food poisoning. Even that dip you leave out for a week after the Super Bowl party is less dangerous than the NFC Super Bowl team will be.
662,000 to 1 AFC Championship opponent This was going to read “Indianapolis Colts,” and the odds were going to be a little lower. Then the Colts lost to the Chargers (after an improbable Adam Vinatieri miss) and worse than that they lost Dwight Freeney for the season. The Colts not only might not make it to this game, they might not make it out of the first round of the playoffs. So if not the Colts, then who? Pittsburgh? San Diego? A surprise team? None of them will be getting it done in Foxborough in January. Same odds as: Winning an Olympic medal.
649,740 to 1 Pittsburgh (Week 14) This one’s intriguing. On paper it looks like the Steelers should have a chance to win this one. New England will be coming off a Monday Nighter in Baltimore while Pittsburgh will have tuned up with the far-less-physical-Bengals (after the playing the winless Dolphins the week before). The Steelers are allowing a mere 14 points per game and Ben Roethlisberger (2,020 yards passing, 22 TDs, 7 INTs) looks better than he has in years. But this team almost lost to Cleveland last week. And they’ve lost road games to Denver and Arizona, two teams who are a combined 8-10. Is this really the team that’s going to end the streak? Same odds as: Getting a royal flush in poker on the first five cards dealt. Start right after reading this. Deal out a few hands over and over until one of the hands is a royal flush. If you can do it before the Pittsburgh game, then maybe the Steelers will win.
88,000 to 1 At New York Giants (Week 17) Here they are, the team with the best chance to beat the 2007 New England Patriots. And that team is named the New England Patriots. You read that right. The only team that can beat the Patriots is the Patriots. If they play their starters long enough in this game, 16-0 will be a reality. But the question is, just how long will they play the starters? And what will this game mean to the Giants? If it’s a snowy night in Jersey and a 10-10 game in the 3rd quarter, who knows if Brady and company go the distance in this one. My guess is that Belichick will do whatever it takes to win this game. They’ll have a bye the next week and can treat this one as one last playoff tune-up. It should be fun. Same odds as: Your chances of dating a supermodel.
There you have it. The best odds any team has of beating the Patriots are 88,000 to 1—or, the same chance you have of dating a supermodel. So unless your name is Tom Brady, you don’t have much chance of beating the Patriots this year, do you? And that’s the whole point, isn’t it?
NFL Week 11 Picks
CINCINNATI (-3) over Arizona GREEN BAY (-9½) over Carolina Cleveland (-2½) over BALTIMORE INDIANAPOLIS (-14½) over Kansas City Miami (+10) over PHILADELPHIA New Orleans (+1) over HOUSTON DETROIT (+2½) over NY Giants MINNESOTA (-5) over Oakland JACKSONVILLE (-3) over San Diego ATLANTA (+3) over Tampa Bay Pittsburgh (-9½) over NY JETS SEATTLE (-5½) over Chicago SAN FRANCISCO (+2½) over St. Louis DALLAS (-10½) over Washington New England (-16) over BUFFALO Tennessee (+2) over DENVER
The 2007 NFL season kicks off tomorrow night with the defending world champion Indianapolis Colts hosting the New Orleans Saints. Seven months after Peyton Manning and the Colts showed that they could indeed win the big one, they get to play the role of defending champion.
No more Michael Vick discussions. No more debates on the length of the preseason. No more reminiscing about (or gnashing teeth over) last year’s results.
I covered most of the questions that we’re all seeking answers to last week in Part 1 of the Sports in a Can NFL Preview. So, without further ado, let’s get to this year’s predictions. Division winners are in bold, wild card teams are in italics:
AFC East New England 13-3 Buffalo 7-9 NY Jets 7-9 Miami 4-12
In what amounted to a rebuilding year, the Patriots won 12 games and were one play away from the Super Bowl last season. Seven months later they’ve added the best defensive free agent available (Adalius Thomas) and three wide receivers (Wes Welker, Donte’ Stallworth, and Randy Moss) that are so much better than what they had last year they released last season’s yardage leader (Reche Caldwell). Does it matter that Richard Seymour can’t play until at least Week 7 or that Rodney Harrison was using HGH and will miss the first four games? A little, but not enough to derail what will be the best team in the NFL this year. Meanwhile, Buffalo lost almost all of their defensive players to free agency or injury. The Jets will take a step backward—last season’s 10 wins were a little suspect (their final 5 wins were against Houston, Miami, Oakland, Green Bay, and Minnesota, who won a combined 26 games, or 5.2 each). And the Dolphins are now officially a mess.
Questions abound in this division. How different will the Ravens’ defense be without Adalius Thomas? How much of an impact will new head coach Mike Tomlin have on the Steelers? How many Bengals will get arrested? And will the Browns ever be good? Baltimore shouldn’t miss Thomas much, as that defense is packed with players. The Steelers will be good enough under their new coach to get back to the playoffs. The Benglas will win exactly 8 games for the 4th time in 5 years. And the Browns are at least a year away. Maybe more.
AFC South
Indianapolis 12-4 Jacksonville 10-6 Tennessee 7-9 Houston 5-11
The defending Super Bowl Champion Colts lost linebacker Cato June, left tackle Tarik Glenn, defensive tackle Booger McFarland, and cornerback Nick Harper. They will not be as good as they were last year, but with four games against the Titans and Texans, along with Kansas City, Oakland, and Atlanta on the schedule, they don’t need to be as good to nail down 12 wins and their 5th straight division crown. Will Jacksonville ever be able to put it together? They released quarterback Byron Leftwhich over the weekend, meaning David Garrard (and his 3,543 career passing yards) is now the full-time starter. Their defense will be stellar again, but the offense is a huge question mark. The Titans, meanwhile, with Vince “I need to sleep in my own bed” Young will take a step backward. With games at Jacksonville, vs. Indianapolis, and at New Orleans to begin the season, there might be some bruised egos heading into their bye week. And the Texans remain the Texans. Unless Matt Shaub (and his 1,033 career passing yards) turns out to be the next Joe Montana. Which is doubtful.
AFC West
San Diego 11-5 Denver 8-8 Kansas City 5-11 Oakland 3-13
The Chargers had the talent to win it all last year. Unfortunately, they were led into the postseason by Marty Schottenheimer and his career 5-12 postseason record. And for the 4th time in his career, he took a 12+ win team into a home playoff game and lost. Replacing Schottenheimer is Norv Turner. You might know Turner (58-82-1 in his career) from such hits as, “I ruined the Redskins” and, “Yes you can win 9 games in 2 years with a team 2 years removed from the Super Bowl and still get another job.” San Diego has too much talent for even Norv to mess up that badly, so 11 wins and the division crown it is. He’ll be helped by the down year I predict for the AFC West. Denver head coach Mike Shanahan somehow coaxed 9 wins out of the Broncos last year. But with untested Jay Cutler anointed as the quarterback, I can’t see Denver winning more than 8 games. And the Chiefs will suffer the second year blues under head coach Herm Edwards. Meanwhile the Raiders continue to be just plain awful.
NFC East
Philadelphia 10-6 Washington 8-8 Dallas 7-9 NY Giants 6-10
Year after year, there’s one thing you can count on in the NFC East: The Eagles being at the top. The Eagles have won 10 games or more 6 times in the last 7 years, so I’ll give them the nod for 10 this year. The rest of the division has problems. The NFL may have passed Joe Gibbs by, but I’ll give him credit for giving it a go, and with the talent they have, there’s no reason for them to win fewer than 8 games. For the Cowboys, new head coach Wade Phillips is walking into a difficult situation. Only once out of the three times Bill Parcells has left a franchise has the team won more games the next season. Plus he’s got the Terrell Owens factor to deal with, along with quarterback Tony Romo’s psyche after dropping the snap on last year’s extra point in the playoffs. And then there are the Giants. I was high on them last year but the fact remains that Eli is no Peyton, head coach Tom Coughlin’s style has a short shelf life, and they’re going to miss running back Tiki Barber (over 2,000 yards rushing and receiving in each of the last three years) more than they think.
NFC North
Chicago 12-4 Minnesota 9-7 Green Bay 6-10 Detroit 4-12
It’s a testament to how bad the NFC is in comparison to the AFC that the Bears are probably going to win 12 games again. They have a solid defense, an awful quarterback, and a head coach that’s out of his element in the biggest moments. (Lovie Smith is a nice enough guy, but re-read my recap of last year’s “win” over the Seahawks in the playoffs and tell me if you’d want him coaching your team.) But playing in the NFC, having the 31st easiest schedule (according to last season’s records), and fielding a defense that can win games by itself at times will power the Bears to 12 wins. The Vikings seem to be the only other team in this division that has a chance to be respectable. I like what Brad Childress is doing in Minnesota, and he has turned that team from a laughing stock into a potential playoff team. They just need to find some offense to go with their incredible run-stopping defense (they allowed 111 fewer rushing yards per game than the Colts last year). I still don’t know how Green Bay won 8 games last year, but without running back Ahman Green, Brett Favre will have to throw more. With 47 interceptions (to go with 38 touchdowns) in the last two seasons, Favre throwing more is not what the Packers are looking for. And the Lions can run as many 5 receiver sets as they want. Jon Kitna is throwing the ball to them.
NFC South
New Orleans 12-4 Carolina 11-5 Tampa Bay 9-7 Atlanta 2-14
The Saints, last year’s surprise team, will continue to be a team on the rise. Drew Brees has seemingly overnight transformed into one of the premier quarterbacks in the league. Since his abysmal 2003 season, Brees has thrown 77 touchdowns against only 33 interceptions. Last season he led the league with 4,418 passing yards. Between Brees, the emergence of all-world Reggie Bush, and the coaching of Sean Payton, the Saints will emerge as the top team in the NFC this year. Meanwhile, the Panthers will be right there with them, winning 11 games. How do I know for sure? Here are the Panthers’ wins the last 5 years: 7-11-7-11-8. And it should have been 7 last year—I have no idea how the Panthers won in Baltimore in Week 6. So 11 it is. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is putting it together finally. I thought last year would be the year, but with the addition of Jeff “I am now the man” Garcia, 9 wins seems attainable. And Michael Vick has a better chance of starring in a Prison Break cameo than the Falcons do of winning more than 2 games this year.
NFC West
San Francisco 10-6 Seattle 10-6 St. Louis 8-8 Arizona 7-9
An improved 49ers squad will finally make the leap to the promised land of the playoffs this year. Consider this: San Francisco beat Seattle twice last season and then got the Seahawks’ best receiver (Darrell Jackson) from them in a trade. Quarterback Alex Smith is improving, running back Frank Gore is a force, and—with a division title presumably on the line—the 49ers finish the season with three straight home games and then a trip to Cleveland. I don’t trust the Seahawks and I never will, but I’ll give them 10 wins and a wild card berth. St. Louis seems headed for another 8-8 season—they’re not good enough to challenge for the division, but their offense is too good to lose too many games. And then there are the Cardinals. I was ready to anoint them the surprise team—again. But they lost two different players in the preseason with torn muscles, which you just have to think is a bad sign. They will be good—and soon—but this isn’t the year for any more than 7 wins.
The Playoffs
Week 1: Baltimore (3) beats Pittsburgh (6); Jacksonville (5) beats San Diego (4); Philadelphia (3) beats Seattle (6); Carolina (5) beats San Francisco (4)
Week 2: New England (1) beats Jacksonville (5); Indianapolis (2) beats Baltimore (3); New Orleans (1) beats Carolina (5); Philadelphia (3) beats Chicago (1)
NFC Championship Game: New Orleans over Philadelphia, continuing the remarkable turnaround for the Saints franchise.
AFC Championship Game: New England vs. Indianapolis. Right where we left off in January. In the next edition of this great rivalry, the Patriots get the upper hand and advance to the Super Bowl for the 4th time in 7 years.
Super Bowl XLII: After winning their first three Super Bowls by a combined 9 points, the Patriots win this one by 9 points, 34-25 over New Orleans.
* * * * *
Week 1 Picks
Last year, 7 underdogs won outright in Week 1, and 2 others covered the spread. The year before it was 6 and 1. The trick is finding the right underdogs this early in the season.
INDIANAPOLIS (-6½) over New Orleans BUFFALO (+3) over Denver Kansas City (+3) over HOUSTON JACKSONVILLE (-6½) over Tennessee MINNESOTA (-3) over Atlanta New England (-6½) over NY JETS Philadelphia (-3) over GREEN BAY Pittsburgh (-4½) over CLEVELAND Carolina (+1) over ST. LOUIS WASHINGTON (-3) over Miami Detroit (+1½) over OAKLAND SAN DIEGO (-5½) over Chicago SEATTLE (-6) over Tampa Bay NY Giants (+6) over DALLAS Baltimore (+2½) over CINCINNATI SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Arizona
I’d like to thank the NFL for showing a complete lack of regard for my holiday schedule. I know that this year Christmas Eve is on Sunday and Christmas Day is Monday—the NFL’s two biggest days of the week. But couldn’t they have worked something out? Perhaps play most of the games on Saturday or something? Nobody’s working on Friday, right? How about a bunch of Friday games?
But, no, they’ve got to intrude on my Christmas Eve. Instead of wrapping and decorating, I’m going to have to watch football. No socializing with family and friends. Sorry, everyone—my real friends, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and LaDanian Tomlinson are coming over.
I’m surprised they’re not moving one of the games to Sunday night this week. They could have had a halftime flyover by Santa. They could have even given all the fans candles and sung Silent Night between the 3rd and 4th quarters. Now that would have been festive!I’ll just have to make do I guess. In the spirit of Christmas I’ve wrapped up my picks with cute little bows. Enjoy the holiday…and the football!
Thursday, December 21
Minnesota at Green Bay (8:00 p.m.)
Let’s see, it’s the Thursday before Christmas, 15 people nationwide have NFL Network, and two crappy teams are playing. This one’s going to be a ratings bonanza, isn’t it? (But, I must thank the NFL Network for putting The Rolling Stones’ The Last Time in my head. Instead of wasting all of our time inventing something like the Slingbox, can’t someone invent a device that allows you to prohibit commercials from entering your home once you’ve seen them once o
