The passage of time in the NFL is marked by decades and the teams that tower over the rest of the field. Various teams win titles throughout each decade, but one team always wins the most championships and stands out as the Team of the Decade.
This is the way it’s been ever since the Green Bay Packers rolled to five NFL titles (including wins in the first two Super Bowls) in the 1960s. The Pittsburgh Steelers won four Super Bowls in the ‘70s, the San Francisco 49ers won four Super Bowls in the ‘80s, and the Dallas Cowboys won three Super Bowls in the ‘90s.
With three Super Bowls remaining in this decade (the ‘00s?), the Patriots are poised to claim the latest Team of the Decade designation. If they win this Sunday they will have four Super Bowl titles this decade. The most Super Bowl wins any other team has is one. Even if they were to somehow lose this weekend, only the Colts or Steelers would have a chance of matching their three titles and possessing a decade-long cache of winning. (Sorry, but even if the Ravens or Buccaneers win the next two Super Bowls, or the Giants win the next three, none of them could possibly be considered Team of the Decade.)
That means there’s even more pressure on the Patriots this Sunday. A win gives them the Super Bowl title, the first 19-0 season in NFL history, and Team of the Decade status.
Let’s take a look at the curriculum vitae for each Team of the Decade.
Green Bay Packers (1960s)
From 1960 through 1969, the Green Bay Packers were the class of the NFL. They had just one losing season (1968, the year after head coach Vince Lombardi stepped down) and won their division six times. The Packers won five of the six NFL Championship Games they played, and won the first two Super Bowls in NFL history. The Packers defined what the NFL was all about during the early years.
Best team of the decade: 1962. The ’62 Packers went 13-1, led the league in both offense and defense, outscored their opponents 415-148, and won the NFL Championship on the road, defeating the New York Giants 16-7.
Worst loss of the decade: The 1960 NFL Championship Game. Taking a 13-10 in the 4th quarter, the Eagles returned the ensuing kickoff 58 yards and eventually took a 17-13 lead. The Packers were stopped on the 8-yard line as time expired. The loss was their first (and only) postseason loss under Lombardi.
Defining games of the decade: Super Bowl I (a 35-10 thrashing of the upstart AFL Kansas City Chiefs) and the 1967 NFL Championship Game (the “Ice Bowl,” a 21-17 win over the Dallas Cowboys in sub-zero weather).
If not for the Packers, the Team of the Decade might have been: The Cleveland Browns. The Browns won five division titles in the ‘60s and took home the 1964 NFL Championship. They lost the 1965 Championship to Green Bay and did not return to the big game for the rest of the decade.
Pittsburgh Steelers (1970s)
Head coach Chuck Noll turned the Steelers from a 1-13 team in 1969 into the best team of the ‘70s. They had just two losing seasons (1970 and 1971), won their division eight years in a row, won four of the six AFC Championship Games they played, and won four Super Bowls. The Steel Curtain defense remains one of the iconic symbols of the NFL.
Best team of the decade: 1978. The ’78 Steelers went 14-2, led the league in defense, and had the 5th best offense. They won their first two playoff games by a combined score of 67-15 before defeating the Dallas Cowboys 35-31 in the Super Bowl.
Worst loss of the decade: The 1976 AFC Championship Game. Many people believe that Pittsburgh’s best team of the ‘70s was the ’76 edition. For the third straight year they played the Oakland Raiders in the Championship game, but with running backs Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier (who had combined for over 2,000 yards in the regular season) both out with injuries, the Raiders won 24-7 to advance to the Super Bowl.
Defining games of the decade: 1972 playoff victory over Oakland (that game that featured the “Immaculate Reception”) and Super Bowl XIII (their 35-31 win over Dallas is considered by many to be the best Super Bowl game of all time).
If not for the Steelers, the Team of the Decade might have been: The Oakland Raiders. The Raiders had 10 straight winning seasons under head coach John Madden in the ‘70s, but had just one Super Bowl win to show for their efforts. The Raiders lost playoff games to the Steelers three times in the ‘70s, with the Steelers winning Super Bowl titles twice after knocking off the Raiders in the AFC Championship game.
San Francisco 49ers (1980s)
Bill Walsh took over a 2-14 team in 1978 and turned the 49ers into one of the league’s most respected and envied franchises. The 49ers had just two losing seasons (1980 and 1982), won their division seven times, made the playoffs eight times, won four of the five NFC Championship Games they played, and won four Super Bowls. At the end of their run, Bill Walsh, quarterback Joe Montana, and wide receiver Jerry Rice were all considered with the best that ever coached and played the game.
Best team of the decade: 1984. The ’84 San Francisco 49ers went 15-1 with the league’s best defense and 2nd-best offense (second only to Dan Marino’s record-setting Dolphins). They won their first two playoff games by a combined score of 44-10 before defeating Marino’s Dolphins 38-16 in the Super Bowl.
Worst loss of the decade: The 1983 NFC Championship Game. Although the 49ers only went 10-6 in 1983, they were one win away from the Super Bowl when they traveled to Washington to take on the Redskins. Trailing 21-0 in the 4th quarter, the 49ers scored three quick touchdowns and tied the game 21-21 with less than seven minutes to play. But the Redskins—aided by a controversial pass interference call—marched 78 yards to set up kicker Mark Moseley for a 25-yard game-winning field goal. Moseley—who had missed four field goals throughout the game—nailed this one and sent the Redskins to the Super Bowl.
Defining games of the decade: The 1982 NFC Championship Game (the game that featured “The Catch”) and Super Bowl XXIII (Montana leads a 92-yard touchdown drive with 3:10 to go in the game).
If not for the 49ers, the Team of the Decade might have been: The Chicago Bears. The Bears won one Super Bowl in the ‘80s but lost to the 49ers twice in the NFC Championship Game (including once at home). The 49ers won the Super Bowl both times.
Dallas Cowboys (1990s)
The once-proud Cowboys were 3-13 during legendary head coach Tom Landry’s final season and fell to 1-15 in Jimmie Johnson’s first season. But three different head coaches—Johnson, Barry Switzer, and Chan Gailey—would lead the Cowboys to winning seasons in all but three years (1990, 1997, and 1999), six division titles, eight playoff appearances, three wins in four NFC Championship Games, and three Super Bowl titles.
Best team of the decade: 1992. The Cowboys went 13-3 and finished with the 2nd best offense and 5th best defense in the league. They won the NFC Championship Game in San Francisco and dismantled the Buffalo Bills 52-17 in the Super Bowl.
Worst loss of the decade: The 1994 NFC Championship Game. The Cowboys played the 49ers in the Championship Game for the 3rd straight year, and quarterback Troy Aikman entered the game undefeated in the playoffs (7-0). Aikman’s first interception of the game was returned for a touchdown. Wide receiver Cowboys wide receiver Michael Irvin lost a fumble on the next Dallas possession and kick returner Kevin Williams fumbled a kickoff, allowing San Francisco to take a 21-0 1st quarter lead, on their way to a 38-28 victory.
Defining games of the decade: The 1992 NFC Championship Game (Dallas won the game in San Francisco to advance to the franchise’s first Super Bowl in 14 years) and the 1995 NFC Championship Game (one year after losing to the 49ers in the penultimate game, the Cowboys withstood Brett Favre and the surging Packers 38-27 to advance to their third Super Bowl of the decade).
If not for the Cowboys, the Team of the Decade might have been: The San Francisco 49ers. With one Super Bowl and two NFC Championship Game losses to the Cowboys, the team of the ‘90s could have been the same as the team of the ‘80s if not for Dallas.
New England Patriots (2000s)
The New England Patriots have seven straight winning seasons, six division titles, six playoff appearances, four wins in five AFC Championship Games, and three Super Bowl titles. They also own the first undefeated season in 35 years and head to the Super Bowl this week in search of their fourth title of the decade.
Best team of the decade: 2007. The Patriots went 16-0 this season and are in the discussion as one of the greatest teams in NFL history.
Worst loss of the decade: The 2006 AFC Championship Game. The Patriots led the Indianapolis Colts 21-6 at halftime but the Colts scored 32 second half points on the way to a 38-34 win.
Defining games of the decade: The 2001 Divisional Playoff (“The Snow Game” or “The Tuck Rule Game”) and Super Bowl XXXVI (one of the greatest upsets in Super Bowl history).
If not for the Patriots, the Team of the Decade might have been: Either the Indianapolis Colts or the Pittsburgh Steelers. Both have one Super Bowl title and two playoff losses to the Patriots.
I was going to follow up what I wrote last week with a little diddy about how great Sunday night’s Patriots win was and how it turned everything around and how great life was and blah blah blah. But the last thing anyone wants is a Patriots fan gloating about his team.
Instead, let’s focus in on the upcoming slate of games in the NFL. I went a disappointing 7-8-1 last week after my strong opening week. Although my tidbit of the week—that the underdogs who won in Week 1 would be good bets in Week 2—came true in the form of a 3-0-1 week for those teams. Of course I told you that tidbit and then only took 3 of them myself. I won’t make that mistake this week.
I’ve got a few more tidbits to share this week. They are spread throughout my picks for the weekend.
Arizona at Baltimore Did you ever stop to think about team names and what it would mean if they actually did battle? I mean a Cardinal is a cute little red bird that is not indigenous to Arizona. A Raven is one of the largest birds in North America, is considered one of the smartest of all birds, and can survive anywhere from the Arctic to the desert. Plus the Raven was immortalized in a poem by the macabre Edgar Allan Poe (which makes it one tough bird). All I can say about this game is: That’s So Raven. Pick: Baltimore (-7½)
San Francisco at Pittsburgh Over the last two years, teams that started the season 2-0 and played a team with fewer than 2 wins in Week 3 are just 3-7 against the spread. More important than that tidbit is this one—teams that won their first two games by 17 or more are 0-2-1 against the spread the next week. That makes Pittsburgh, New England, and Dallas vulnerable this week. Pick: San Francisco (+9)
Detroit at Philadelphia I don’t want to place any more pressure on Donovan McNabb, but his team is 0-2 and he is the 23rd-highest rated quarterback in the league. I’m not criticizing you, Donovan. I’m just stating facts. No pressure, OK? Pick: Detroit (+6)
Indianapolis at Houston Everyone had this one down as one of the premier games of the season, right? Undefeated Indianapolis vs. undefeated Houston. Raise your hand if you had this one pegged as a clash of the titans. Pick: Indianapolis (-6)
Miami at NY Jets The Jets have won 5 of the last 6 games with the Dolphins. I smell a trend. Or maybe I smell a rat. I don’t know. I smell something. Pick: NY Jets (-3)
Minnesota at Kansas City The Vikings have allowed 76 rushing yards per game so far this season, up 15 yards per game from last year’s phenomenal total (but still 5th best in the league). The Chiefs have rushed for 71 yards per game this year, down 63 yards per game from the 2006 season. This could be the first game in NFL history in which a team rushes for negative yardage for the entire game. Pick: Minnesota (+2½)
St. Louis at Tampa Bay Teams that began 0-2 the last two years went 7-3 vs. the spread against teams with at least one win in Week 3. Digging a little deeper, teams that lost one of their games by less than 10 and the other by 10 or more went 5-1 against the number. That makes Atlanta, St. Louis, Oakland, and Buffalo sure-fire covers this weekend. Pick: St. Louis (+3½)
Buffalo at New England Do you think Randy Moss will be a difference-maker for the Patriots? I’m still on the fence. Pick: Buffalo (+16½)
San Diego at Green Bay I’ve been a huge Prison Break fan since day 1, even though I had to suspend my disbelief at every turn. First, an architect tattoos his entire body with plans to break his brother out of prison. Then the group of escapees (those that survived) converge both in Utah (to dig up D.B. Cooper’s money) and in Panama. Finally, the escapee brothers are miraculously exhonerated after the President of the United States announces that she is leaving office—but one of the brothers ends up in the worst prison on the planet, from which he needs to escape. Yeah, they might have lost me this year. Pick: San Diego (-5½)
Cincinnati at Seattle Seattle is 33-12 at home since 2002. And the way Cincinnati’s defense played last week, I don’t see the Bengals providing much of a challenge this weekend. Pick: Seattle (-3)
Cleveland at Oakland Last week the Browns and Bengals played one of their semi-annual “Ugly Games.” There’s nothing but orange and black all over the field and absolutely no defense. It’s Halloween gone mad. CBS added to the ugliness by showing the game in No Definition. Keep up the good work, CBS. You might as well show this game in No Def as well. Pick: Oakland (-3)
Jacksonville at Denver The Denver Broncos needed the field goal unit to sprint onto the field and kick a game winner in 8 seconds in Week 1. Last week, their coach called time out a nano-second before the Raiders snapped the ball for a game-winning field goal. Oakland then missed the second try and the Broncos drove for the winning score. When you win two games you have no right winning, there’s only two ways the rest of the season can go: 14-2 and a trip to the Super Bowl or 8-8 with a string of “how did they blow that game” losses. I’m going with the latter. Pick: Jacksonville (+3)
Carolina at Atlanta Since I have nothing to say about this game, let’s talk baseball for a moment. The American League races are all but over (and even if the Yankees catch the Red Sox, both are making the playoffs), but the National League drama might be just beginning. All three divisions are separated by 1½ games or less, and the Wild Card is up for grabs as well. I’m rooting for ties galore, with the Mets and Phillies, Padres and Diamondbacks, and Cubs and Brewers all playing one game playoffs on October 1, with the losers of the first two games meeting the next day to settle the Wild Card. But maybe that’s just me. Pick: Atlanta (+4)
NY Giants at Washington ESPN’s Chris Mortensen reports that Giants quarterback Eli Manning will retire due to the severity of his dislocated shoulder. Wait, this just in, Eli Manning will be starting this weekend for the Giants. Pick: Washington (-3½)
Dallas at Chicago The Bears have allowed just 12 points per game so far this season, 4th-lowest in the NFL. The Cowboys have scored a league-best 41 points per game. The Cardinals have scored 40 points and allowed 40 points. I don’t know what any of this means, but it sure sounded good at first. Pick: Chicago (-3)
Tennessee at New Orleans
Only three teams since 1990 have started the season 0-2 and advanced to the Super Bowl (the ’93 Cowboys, ’96 Patriots, and ’01 Patriots). Team number four—the New Orleans Saints—begins the long climb this week (or else I can kiss my Super Bowl prediction goodbye in Week 3). Pick: New Orleans (-4)
The 2007 NFL season kicks off tomorrow night with the defending world champion Indianapolis Colts hosting the New Orleans Saints. Seven months after Peyton Manning and the Colts showed that they could indeed win the big one, they get to play the role of defending champion.
No more Michael Vick discussions. No more debates on the length of the preseason. No more reminiscing about (or gnashing teeth over) last year’s results.
I covered most of the questions that we’re all seeking answers to last week in Part 1 of the Sports in a Can NFL Preview. So, without further ado, let’s get to this year’s predictions. Division winners are in bold, wild card teams are in italics:
AFC East New England 13-3 Buffalo 7-9 NY Jets 7-9 Miami 4-12
In what amounted to a rebuilding year, the Patriots won 12 games and were one play away from the Super Bowl last season. Seven months later they’ve added the best defensive free agent available (Adalius Thomas) and three wide receivers (Wes Welker, Donte’ Stallworth, and Randy Moss) that are so much better than what they had last year they released last season’s yardage leader (Reche Caldwell). Does it matter that Richard Seymour can’t play until at least Week 7 or that Rodney Harrison was using HGH and will miss the first four games? A little, but not enough to derail what will be the best team in the NFL this year. Meanwhile, Buffalo lost almost all of their defensive players to free agency or injury. The Jets will take a step backward—last season’s 10 wins were a little suspect (their final 5 wins were against Houston, Miami, Oakland, Green Bay, and Minnesota, who won a combined 26 games, or 5.2 each). And the Dolphins are now officially a mess.
Questions abound in this division. How different will the Ravens’ defense be without Adalius Thomas? How much of an impact will new head coach Mike Tomlin have on the Steelers? How many Bengals will get arrested? And will the Browns ever be good? Baltimore shouldn’t miss Thomas much, as that defense is packed with players. The Steelers will be good enough under their new coach to get back to the playoffs. The Benglas will win exactly 8 games for the 4th time in 5 years. And the Browns are at least a year away. Maybe more.
AFC South
Indianapolis 12-4 Jacksonville 10-6 Tennessee 7-9 Houston 5-11
The defending Super Bowl Champion Colts lost linebacker Cato June, left tackle Tarik Glenn, defensive tackle Booger McFarland, and cornerback Nick Harper. They will not be as good as they were last year, but with four games against the Titans and Texans, along with Kansas City, Oakland, and Atlanta on the schedule, they don’t need to be as good to nail down 12 wins and their 5th straight division crown. Will Jacksonville ever be able to put it together? They released quarterback Byron Leftwhich over the weekend, meaning David Garrard (and his 3,543 career passing yards) is now the full-time starter. Their defense will be stellar again, but the offense is a huge question mark. The Titans, meanwhile, with Vince “I need to sleep in my own bed” Young will take a step backward. With games at Jacksonville, vs. Indianapolis, and at New Orleans to begin the season, there might be some bruised egos heading into their bye week. And the Texans remain the Texans. Unless Matt Shaub (and his 1,033 career passing yards) turns out to be the next Joe Montana. Which is doubtful.
AFC West
San Diego 11-5 Denver 8-8 Kansas City 5-11 Oakland 3-13
The Chargers had the talent to win it all last year. Unfortunately, they were led into the postseason by Marty Schottenheimer and his career 5-12 postseason record. And for the 4th time in his career, he took a 12+ win team into a home playoff game and lost. Replacing Schottenheimer is Norv Turner. You might know Turner (58-82-1 in his career) from such hits as, “I ruined the Redskins” and, “Yes you can win 9 games in 2 years with a team 2 years removed from the Super Bowl and still get another job.” San Diego has too much talent for even Norv to mess up that badly, so 11 wins and the division crown it is. He’ll be helped by the down year I predict for the AFC West. Denver head coach Mike Shanahan somehow coaxed 9 wins out of the Broncos last year. But with untested Jay Cutler anointed as the quarterback, I can’t see Denver winning more than 8 games. And the Chiefs will suffer the second year blues under head coach Herm Edwards. Meanwhile the Raiders continue to be just plain awful.
NFC East
Philadelphia 10-6 Washington 8-8 Dallas 7-9 NY Giants 6-10
Year after year, there’s one thing you can count on in the NFC East: The Eagles being at the top. The Eagles have won 10 games or more 6 times in the last 7 years, so I’ll give them the nod for 10 this year. The rest of the division has problems. The NFL may have passed Joe Gibbs by, but I’ll give him credit for giving it a go, and with the talent they have, there’s no reason for them to win fewer than 8 games. For the Cowboys, new head coach Wade Phillips is walking into a difficult situation. Only once out of the three times Bill Parcells has left a franchise has the team won more games the next season. Plus he’s got the Terrell Owens factor to deal with, along with quarterback Tony Romo’s psyche after dropping the snap on last year’s extra point in the playoffs. And then there are the Giants. I was high on them last year but the fact remains that Eli is no Peyton, head coach Tom Coughlin’s style has a short shelf life, and they’re going to miss running back Tiki Barber (over 2,000 yards rushing and receiving in each of the last three years) more than they think.
NFC North
Chicago 12-4 Minnesota 9-7 Green Bay 6-10 Detroit 4-12
It’s a testament to how bad the NFC is in comparison to the AFC that the Bears are probably going to win 12 games again. They have a solid defense, an awful quarterback, and a head coach that’s out of his element in the biggest moments. (Lovie Smith is a nice enough guy, but re-read my recap of last year’s “win” over the Seahawks in the playoffs and tell me if you’d want him coaching your team.) But playing in the NFC, having the 31st easiest schedule (according to last season’s records), and fielding a defense that can win games by itself at times will power the Bears to 12 wins. The Vikings seem to be the only other team in this division that has a chance to be respectable. I like what Brad Childress is doing in Minnesota, and he has turned that team from a laughing stock into a potential playoff team. They just need to find some offense to go with their incredible run-stopping defense (they allowed 111 fewer rushing yards per game than the Colts last year). I still don’t know how Green Bay won 8 games last year, but without running back Ahman Green, Brett Favre will have to throw more. With 47 interceptions (to go with 38 touchdowns) in the last two seasons, Favre throwing more is not what the Packers are looking for. And the Lions can run as many 5 receiver sets as they want. Jon Kitna is throwing the ball to them.
NFC South
New Orleans 12-4 Carolina 11-5 Tampa Bay 9-7 Atlanta 2-14
The Saints, last year’s surprise team, will continue to be a team on the rise. Drew Brees has seemingly overnight transformed into one of the premier quarterbacks in the league. Since his abysmal 2003 season, Brees has thrown 77 touchdowns against only 33 interceptions. Last season he led the league with 4,418 passing yards. Between Brees, the emergence of all-world Reggie Bush, and the coaching of Sean Payton, the Saints will emerge as the top team in the NFC this year. Meanwhile, the Panthers will be right there with them, winning 11 games. How do I know for sure? Here are the Panthers’ wins the last 5 years: 7-11-7-11-8. And it should have been 7 last year—I have no idea how the Panthers won in Baltimore in Week 6. So 11 it is. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is putting it together finally. I thought last year would be the year, but with the addition of Jeff “I am now the man” Garcia, 9 wins seems attainable. And Michael Vick has a better chance of starring in a Prison Break cameo than the Falcons do of winning more than 2 games this year.
NFC West
San Francisco 10-6 Seattle 10-6 St. Louis 8-8 Arizona 7-9
An improved 49ers squad will finally make the leap to the promised land of the playoffs this year. Consider this: San Francisco beat Seattle twice last season and then got the Seahawks’ best receiver (Darrell Jackson) from them in a trade. Quarterback Alex Smith is improving, running back Frank Gore is a force, and—with a division title presumably on the line—the 49ers finish the season with three straight home games and then a trip to Cleveland. I don’t trust the Seahawks and I never will, but I’ll give them 10 wins and a wild card berth. St. Louis seems headed for another 8-8 season—they’re not good enough to challenge for the division, but their offense is too good to lose too many games. And then there are the Cardinals. I was ready to anoint them the surprise team—again. But they lost two different players in the preseason with torn muscles, which you just have to think is a bad sign. They will be good—and soon—but this isn’t the year for any more than 7 wins.
The Playoffs
Week 1: Baltimore (3) beats Pittsburgh (6); Jacksonville (5) beats San Diego (4); Philadelphia (3) beats Seattle (6); Carolina (5) beats San Francisco (4)
Week 2: New England (1) beats Jacksonville (5); Indianapolis (2) beats Baltimore (3); New Orleans (1) beats Carolina (5); Philadelphia (3) beats Chicago (1)
NFC Championship Game: New Orleans over Philadelphia, continuing the remarkable turnaround for the Saints franchise.
AFC Championship Game: New England vs. Indianapolis. Right where we left off in January. In the next edition of this great rivalry, the Patriots get the upper hand and advance to the Super Bowl for the 4th time in 7 years.
Super Bowl XLII: After winning their first three Super Bowls by a combined 9 points, the Patriots win this one by 9 points, 34-25 over New Orleans.
* * * * *
Week 1 Picks
Last year, 7 underdogs won outright in Week 1, and 2 others covered the spread. The year before it was 6 and 1. The trick is finding the right underdogs this early in the season.
INDIANAPOLIS (-6½) over New Orleans BUFFALO (+3) over Denver Kansas City (+3) over HOUSTON JACKSONVILLE (-6½) over Tennessee MINNESOTA (-3) over Atlanta New England (-6½) over NY JETS Philadelphia (-3) over GREEN BAY Pittsburgh (-4½) over CLEVELAND Carolina (+1) over ST. LOUIS WASHINGTON (-3) over Miami Detroit (+1½) over OAKLAND SAN DIEGO (-5½) over Chicago SEATTLE (-6) over Tampa Bay NY Giants (+6) over DALLAS Baltimore (+2½) over CINCINNATI SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Arizona
I spent most of the last two weeks thinking that the Colts were going to trounce the Bears in Super Bowl XLI. But then I remembered something. I went 0-2 picking the Championship games this year. And you can bet the house against my Super Bowl pick in any year I get those two games wrong. It’s almost a ritual. Punxsutawney Phil has his shadow. I have my incorrect Super Bowl pick.
On Championship weekend the last eight years, I have gone 0-2 four times. The first three times I incorrectly picked the Super Bowl against the spread. Number four is coming up on Sunday.
Since I think the Colts will win Super Bowl XLI in a runaway, clearly that can’t happen. Now I have to figure out why not. I’ve come up with five reasons the Bears will hang around in this one and keep it closer than I think they will.
Bob Sanders’ ankle sprain. Sanders is the key to the Colts’ defense. Without him, it’s almost as if a different team is on the field. If he’s hobbled (which all reports indicate he is), then the Bears will be able to sustain a ground attack, which should take pressure off the ridiculously inconsistent Rex Grossman.
The speed of the Bears’ linebackers. I’ve said it before—until you actually play this team, you can’t appreciate how fast they are. The Colts’ offense might be a little shell-shocked in the first half, which will keep this one low-scoring (and close) heading into the latter stages of the game.
Devin Hester. It’s clear from what the Colts have been saying all week that they will either kick to Hester claiming they aren’t afraid of him, or they will try and kick away from him. Either way, it changes what the Colts want to do on special teams. Any time you can get a team to do something they don’t want to, it’s going to cause problems. At a minimum, the Bears will end up with good field position throughout the game. But considering how poorly the Colts’ special teams played against the Patriots, I can see Hester running one back for a touchdown in this game.
Peyton Manning’s new conservative style. This isn’t more Manning-bashing, it’s an undeniable truth: Peyton Manning is a different quarterback this year (especially in the postseason), and his team is better for it. He’s checking down to his tight ends more often, keeping running plays called (instead of switching to passing plays before the ball is snapped), and moving the chains. This has helped keep the defense fresh. But it has also kept the score down. Manning would take a backseat to the running game (as he did against the Ravens) in a heartbeat if it means he’ll be a Super Bowl champion—which is a sign he’s matured as a quarterback. But it also means that this game won’t be a blowout. Everyone loves the Colts. They’re everyone’s pick in this one. Whether it’s the “Manning is due” storyline or the comparisons to the 2004 Red Sox (my buddy Jake has an entire thesis wrapped around that one), everyone’s on the Colts’ bandwagon. And every time the whole world goes one way, the wise gambler goes the other.
So this is the best I’ve got. Do I really believe all of it? Not completely. I can see Grossman falling apart, the Colts’ defense continuing to dominate with smoke and mirrors, the Bears’ coaching staff tripping over each other (again), and Manning putting together a game for the ages. If I weren’t presented with evidence that I can’t go with my first pick, I’d go with Colts 45, Bears 16.
But since I’m bound to be wrong, I’m forced to go with my opposite pick for Super Bowl XLI. Here’s how I see the game ending up:
After a defensive first half, the Colts lead 9-6 heading into the 3rd quarter. It’s back and forth in the second half, and tied at 30 late in the 4th quarter. The Colts get the ball back in bizarre fashion. Rex Grossman tries to call back-to-back timeouts and, rushing to get the play off, throws the ball up for grabs. Dwight Freeney intercepts it, spins around four times, and gets so dizzy he falls down. Manning completes four straight passes to move the Colts to the Chicago 34-yard-line with 5 seconds remaining. Adam Vinatieri nails the game-winning 51-yard field goal with no time left on the clock.
Colts 33, Bears 30 (with Chicago covering the 7-point spread)
***
Football gamblers are used to multiple choices each weekend. Having just one game to keep track of really depresses them. Thus, the evolution of the “prop bet.” With these extra betting options, folks have multiple chances to wager on the Big Game. They range from the typical to the bizarre.
Here are 10 prop bets I like for Super Bowl XLI:
Who will have more on Feb 4th? LeBron James (-½) or the Colts (+½)
I love these cross-sports bets. James has been nursing a sore toe, so I’d lean toward Indianapolis on this one. But if James explodes for a big day in the afternoon, it would make for a long Super Bowl hoping the Colts pour it on. Pick: Colts
How long will it take Billy Joel to Sing the National Anthem? (Over/under 1 minute 44 seconds)
If I know anything about Billy Joel, it’s that he loves the spotlight. You think he’s dragging himself out there to nail this baby in less than a minute and a half? I don’t think so. Load the over on this one. Pick: Over
Which team will use the 1st timeout in the game?
This one’s a gimmie. The Bears will probably call timeout on their opening drive. Load the Bears. Pick: Bears
The first score of the game will be?
The options for this one are touchdown or field goal/safety. I think there will be a bunch of early field goals in this one, but the added bonus of a safety—the most rare scoring play in football—as part of my wager makes this one the most fun bet of the day. Pick: Field goal/safety
What’s the total number of Field Goals scored by both teams, combined (over/under 3½)?
That number seems really low, so I like the over. There could be four field goals kicked before halftime. Pick: Over
In which half will there be more points scored?
In the last eight Super Bowls, the 2nd half has been the higher scoring half (sometimes by a wide margin). I don’t expect anything different in this one. Pick: 2nd half
How many points will Bears’ kicker Robbie Gould score (over/under 7½ points)?
The Bears will not go quietly into that good night, and Gould has been dependable all season. If the Bears can somehow manage two touchdowns, Gould will only need to make two field goals to get to 8 points. That seems like a safe bet to me. Pick: Over
What will happen first for Rex Grossman: throwing an interception or getting a touchdown?
Not only is this one an intriguing bet, but it could be a fun one to root for as well. Rooting for Grossman to throw a pick sounds like lots of fun. But it seems too easy to say the INT will come first, so if I were a betting man, I’d go with the TD and stand back. Pick: Touchdown
Will Peyton Manning have over/under 36 completions?
In Manning’s last seven games--including playoffs--he’s thrown 36+ passes five times. He’s not showing up at the Super Bowl to hand off on every play. Pick: Over
Which player will win the 2007 Super Bowl XLI MVP?
He’s got the best odds on the board (which means you’d have to wager a ton to win some money), but there’s no way you can take anyone but Peyton Manning in this category. Even if he has an atrocious game, as long as the Colts win, he’ll pick up MVP honors. It’s a mortal lock. Pick: Peyton Manning
Throwing Out More Thoughts on Sports, Life, and Whatnot
Which headline do you think NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell most wanted to see last week: “Saints players lift spirits of Hurricane Katrina victims with Super Bowl trip” or “Judge allows Bears player arrested on weapons charges to travel to the Super Bowl”?
Let me see if I understand this. This summer, we’re sending the Patriots and Seahawks to China for a preseason game. Then we’re sending the Giants and Dolphins to England to play a regular season game. Forget questioning the wisdom of the longest NFL road trips in history. What I’m really trying to figure out is why Mexico got hosed in this international deal. A couple of years ago we gave them the worst match-up possible: Cardinals-49ers.
There are just 42 days until March Madness. Which means I have exactly six weeks to try and figure out what to do with all of my free time now that football is almost over.
The NHL All-Star Game was last Wednesday night. Did anyone watch it? It was on some channel called Versus and was up against American Idol.
Whoever loses Super Bowl XLI will become the 14th different team to lose in the last 14 years. The last 13 Super Bowls were lost by Seattle, Philadelphia, Carolina, Oakland, St. Louis, N.Y. Giants, Tennessee, Atlanta, Green Bay, New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, and Buffalo. Add Indianapolis or Chicago to the list and you’ve got 14 different losers. We’ve also had 21 different teams reach the Super Bowl in the last 14 years. Parity, thy name is the NFL.
There are only five NFL teams that have yet to appear in a Super Bowl. Houston, Arizona, New Orleans, Cleveland, and Jacksonville. And in the last nine years, six teams have played in their first ever Super Bowl. Next year maybe we’ll see two first-timers square off. How does everyone feel about a Jacksonville-New Orleans Super Bowl next year? Or maybe Houston-Arizona?
ESPN’s Page 2 has a great piece ranking the 80 teams who have played in the Super Bowl from worst to best. It’s the first time I’ve seen the winners and losers ranked together. It’s a brilliant idea. And it easily can stir debate, as they’ve got some of the winners ranked behind some of the losers, including the ’68 Jets—who were the first AFL team to win the Super Bowl—who are ranked 49th. Not only are they ranked 39th among Super Bowl winners, but 10 losers are ranked ahead of them.
If you don’t have NFL Network, keep an eye out for the America’s Game DVDs. These one-hour recaps of the Super Bowl winners with recent interviews of three participants are incredible. Just when you think you’ve seen it all, NFL Films comes up with a new angle and new footage.
I already have my favorite to watch in American Idol: Sundance Head. Great voice, great attitude, great name. He’s my guy so far.
Hockey has the Stanley Cup (the greatest trophy in all of sports), baseball is still “America’s Pastime,” but the Super Bowl is the King of All Championships. We’re reminded of this inescapable fact every February.
David Beckham signed with the LA Galaxy of Major League Soccer. An international soccer superstar is coming to the U.S? This is incredible news. No, wait, I forgot. It’s soccer. I still don’t care.
I’m as excited as anyone to watch Prince at halftime of the Super Bowl, but the NFL missed out on golden opportunity here. The Christmas episode of Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip featured a storyline about out-of-work New Orleans band members who get the opportunity to perform on the show. There wasn’t a dry eye in my house during this scene. How great would it have been to have some New Orleans talent accompany the halftime show? (Psst, there’s still time to make this happen, NFL. You can send me royalties later.
I’d like to thank TBS for their brilliant marketing campaign that effectively shut down the city of Boston yesterday. Brilliant move. And only in Boston, of course. These things are allegedly all over the country and no one noticed, but here in Massachusetts we call in the bomb squad and shut down highways. Unbelievable.
There’s a group in North Carolina collecting signatures to make Super Bowl Monday—the day after the Super Bowl—a national holiday. They even have a website set up for the effort: http://SuperBowlMonday.com. I am completely on board. I’ve signed their petition and am hoping they are successful. A post-Super Bowl holiday is long overdue.
Barry Bonds’ one-year deal with the Giants was rejected by the commissioner’s office. Word on the street is that the language in question concerns Bonds’ availability for public appearances. I can only assume that Bonds wants to be paid for appearing on behalf of the Giants. I think it would be fitting if Bonds was without a team this year not because of steroids or legal troubles, but because of his ego and greed. Fingers crossed.
Tiger Woods won his 7th consecutive PGA Tour event, four shy of the record. Roger Federer won his 10th Grand Slam title, one away from tying that record. And it turns out that these two phenoms are friends. Greatness always admires greatness.
My first thought on Super Bowl XLI was that the Colts would run away with this game. But, as I’ll detail tomorrow, I can’t go with my gut instinct on this one. So now I have to figure out reasons why the Bears will keep it close.
You don’t live in either Indianapolis or Chicago, and so think you have no reason to watch Super Bowl XLI? Or you want to watch the game but need to convince a loved one that it’s worthwhile? For those of you plagued with having to find reasons to watch Super Bowl XLI, here are 41 of them:
I. That guy from all of those commercials. You know, Peyton Manning? He’s actually playing in the game! Who knows? Maybe you ’ll see him in a brand new commercial!
II. An African-American coach will win the Super Bowl for the first time. (In case you haven’t heard already, Lovie Smith and Tony Dungy are the first African-American coaches to ever coach in the Big Game. Incidentally, if you haven’t heard that by now, under what rock have you been living?)
III. Good Rex or Bad Rex. Which Rex Grossman will show up on Sunday?
IV. Cirque du Soleil. They’ll perform during pregame festivities. This stuff is weird. It’s basically a circus on crack. Or something from a Mel Gibson movie. Seriously, you need to see it to believe it.
V. CBS’s coverage. You only get a chance to see how bad a job CBS does covering the Super Bowl once every three years.
VI. Adam Vinatieri. If this game’s close in the 4th quarter, all eyes will be on the future Hall of Fame kicker. With two Super Bowl-winning kicks in his repertoire (and the deciding points in a third Super Bowl), could Vinatieri possibly do it again and win a fourth ring? If he kicks the game winner in this one, they should induct him into the Hall of Fame on the spot.
VII. Miami. Not Detroit. Not Jacksonville. Not Houston. The Super Bowl venue is Super Bowl-caliber this year. Get ready for some shots of the ocean, the beach, and some sailboats (maybe even the Miami Vice flamingos). Miami’s such a good place for this game that they’ll be back in three years for another go-round. (And Indianapolis is putting in a bid for Super Bowl XLIV. Indianapolis. Oh boy.)
VIII. Your crazy uncle who used to be in prison is playing. Not really, but Bears’ tackle Tank Johnson is on probation and needed a judge’s OK to go to the game.
IX. The Bengals aren’t there. If they were, half the team would more than likely get arrested anyway.
X. The Colts’ offense vs. the Bears’ defense. In the AFC Championship Game, Indianapolis scored 32 points against the Patriots. In thesecond half. After struggling down the stretch, the Chicago defense forced four turnovers, and shut down the Saints in the NFC Championship Game. This is the chess match everyone is looking forward to.
XI. The Bears’ offense vs. the Colts’ defense. The underrated units from each team just might hold the key to the game. If the Colts can play defense the way they did in their first two playoff games, or the Bears can explode when they have the ball the way they did against the Saints, that might tip the scales in this game.
XII. Billy Joel. I’m a big fan. And he’s singing the national anthem.
XIII. Fighter jets. Timed to coincide with the end of the National Anthem, of course.
XIV. The weather. It has never rained during a Super Bowl. There’s a 30% chance of rain in Miami this Sunday.
XV. The coin toss. Have you ever seen so much excitement surrounding a quarter thrown in the air? And if the game goes into overtime (no Super Bowl ever has—yet), you’ll see an even more exciting coin toss.
XVI. Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher. The guy has a motor that just doesn’t quit.
XVII. 2026. That’s the next time the Bears will probably be in the Super Bowl. They won the 1963 NFL Championship, and won the Super Bowl 22 years later. 21 years after that here they are in Super Bowl XLI. We’ll see them again in 20 years, in Super Bowl LXI.
XVIII. Beer and football. This is the only day all year that drinking beer and watching football isn’t just encouraged, it’s mandatory.
XIX. The Manning family. What’s more enjoyable than spending an afternoon with Peyton’s family? Besides, this is probably the only way Eli will ever make it to a Super Bowl.
XX. Colts safety Bob Sanders. Without him, the Colts can’t stop anyone on defense. With him, they can stop everyone. He drops back in pass coverage, he bursts through the hole to stop the run. He’s everywhere.
XXI. The NFC entrant. The NFC has only won two of the last nine Super Bowls. You wouldn’t want to miss it if the tide turned this year, would you?
XXII. Game management. The Bears look like the most unorganized team you’ve ever seen at times. In the NFC Championship Game, the Bears called timeout when they had 4th-and-1 with 2:46 to go in the 1st quarter. Out of the timeout, Grossman tried to call another timeout (which isn’t allowed). They picked up the 1st down, but three plays later again faced 4th-and-1, this time from the one-yard line. They decided to kick a field goal instead of going for it again. You can’t make this stuff up.
XXIII. The over/under. 49 is the Vegas line for this one. There could be a lot of points scored in this game.
XXIV. Manning to Harrison. The most productive quarterback/wide receiver combo in history—Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison—is incredible to watch sometimes. When they’re clicking, they’re almost unstoppable. Trouble is, against good defenses, Harrison can be shut down. This could be one of the key things to watch in this game.
XXV. Bears kick returner Devin Hester. Hester set the single season record for kick returns for touchdowns after returning three punts, two kickoffs (in the same game), and one missed field goal for scores. Close games can turn on a special teams play, and Hester is about as dangerous a special teams weapon as the Super Bowl has ever seen.
XXVI. Prince. He’s performing at halftime! (Because apparently it’s 1985.)
XXVII. Watching Dan Marino squirm. If Peyton Manning and the Colts win, Manning will no longer be in the “great quarterback who never won a Super Bowl” category. I can’t tell if Dan wants Peyton to win so that he won’t have to hear about it anymore, or if he wants Manning to lose so that he won’t be the only name people think of when they mention that category. Either way it’s fun watching him squirm.
XXVIII. Listening to Shannon Sharpe. Seriously, does anyone have any idea what he’s saying? Ever?
XXIX. Squares. Everyone loves Super Bowl squares! And if the game ends up being 55-10, at least you’ll have something to root for.
XXX. Kevin Federline’s “acting.” He’ll be in a Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company ad.
XXXI. 4,000 promotions. Ever seen CSI: Miami? Or The New Adventures of Old Christine? The CBS promotional machine will be in high gear on Sunday. This is an easy way to add shows to your weekly viewing list (or cross them off). And we haven’t even gotten to Rules of Engagement yet.
XXXII. It’s better than your iPod. You’ll be able to purchase highlight clips from iTunes the day after the Super Bowl. Is there anyone on Earth that would do that? All you need is a VCR (or TiVo) and you’ve got the highlights forever. On your TV. Your TV’s bigger than your iPod or computer screen, right?
XXXIII. Seven long months. The next meaningful NFL game won’t be until September 6 in either Indianapolis or Chicago. You’d better get your football fix now. Or else you’ll be jonesing for the Arena League.
XXXIV. The fans. There are always some quality crowd shots of a guy with no shirt on and his favorite player’s number painted on his hairy chest. Plus we may get live shots from Chicago bars. And the crowds in Indianapolis will be, ummm…where will they do live feeds from Indy anyway? Another reason to tune in!
XXXV. No Patriots. That’s for all of the New England haters who are happy the Patriots didn’t make the Super Bowl. Enjoy the game, haters.
XXXVI. Introductions. Does anyone get introduced individually anymore? If the Patriots did nothing else for the Super Bowl, their brilliant move of getting introduced as a team prior to Super Bowl XXXVI brought about a welcome change (and a savings of about 10 minutes of wasted airtime).
XXXVII. House money. That’s what Bears head coach Lovie Smith is playing with. He signed a one-year contract extension last season, after the Bears’ management basically dared him to repeat his team’s performance. He’ll be laughing all the way to the bank regardless of the outcome of this game.
XXXVIII. It’s a de facto national holiday. You wouldn’t skip Christmas or Thanksgiving, right? Well, then you can’t skip the Super Bowl either.
XXXIX. A reason to stay up late. Criminal Minds is on after the Super Bowl! Seriously, that’s not a misprint. Criminal Minds. Or, maybe you can flip to the ESPN recap shows.
XL. Roman numerals. Anything that’s counted in Roman numerals is clearly important. Besides, how else will you teach the kids how to count to 41 in Roman unless you’re watching the Super Bowl?
XLI. What else are you going to watch? Reruns of America’s Funniest Home Videos or the Grease: You’re the One that I Want marathon? I didn’t think so.
It’s not easy at the top. Everyone’s gunning for you and can’t wait to see you fail. They say everyone loves a winner. Until you try to keep winning, that is. And then they don’t love you anymore.
Such is the case with the New England Patriots. Derided for years as one of the laughing stocks of the NFL, it all changed in 2002 when they defeated the heavily-favored “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. It was called a fluke at the time and no one believed that the Patriots would be back. But back they came, winning a total of three Super Bowls in four years. Now head coach Bill Belichick is hailed as a genius and quarterback Tom Brady draws comparisons to the legendary Joe Montana.
Somewhere between that first Super Bowl win and this weekend, the Patriots went from lovable success story to a hated, arrogant, lucky team in the eyes of many. The whole postgame episode with LaDanian Tomlinson last week drove the point home: Everyone hates the Patriots.
But this a team that has shown that they excel when everyone is against them. They are two wins away from accomplishing what only one other team has ever accomplished: Winning four Super Bowls in six years. Only the Pittsburgh Steelers of the ‘70s pulled off that trick. I wonder how that team was viewed nationally at the time. Did people get sick of them winning as well?
There’s a strange combination of things that go on with teams that win multiple championships. First, there’s the human nature element of wanting to see other teams win. It gets boring watching the same team win over and over again. (Unless it’s your team.)
Then there’s the compulsion to tear down whoever is on top. Think about it. Michael Jordan took those two years off between sets of three NBA titles. The scuttlebutt is that it was a hush-hush “suspension” for his gambling problem. Is that the truth, or was it just a tale designed to tear down the top dog? This week’s Patriot-bashing makes me ask the same kind of question. Are they truly an arrogant team full of sore winners or is everyone just trying to find fault with the team of the decade?
Here’s the other problem the Patriots face. They have no true rival. In the ‘80s, the Lakers and Celtics had a great rivalry. And since they took turns winning eight titles (five by Boston and three by Los Angeles), there wasn’t a consensus hatred toward either team. But the Patriots are more comparable to Jordan’s Bulls (six titles in the ‘90s with only Jordan’s semi-retirement preventing eight straight). The only teams that have prevented the Patriots from winning the Super Bowl in the last five years are the Jets and the Broncos. The Jets won in New England in the second-to-last game of the 2002 season, keeping the Patriots out of the playoffs that year. Last season, the Broncos handed the Patriots their first (and so far only) playoff loss under Belichick.
But neither the Jets nor the Broncos won the Super Bowl those years. So it’s the Patriots and everyone else. And don’t call Patriots-Colts a rivalry. To have a true rivalry, both teams need to win big games. It’s akin to calling the pre-2004 Red Sox-Yankees skirmishes a rivalry. If the Colts win this weekend, then we’ll talk. But we all know that’s not going to happen. Peyton Manning and the Colts cannot beat the Patriots in the playoffs. We do all know that, right?
And therein lies the other part of the Patriots-bashing. Check out any NFL message board this weekend and you’ll see what I’m talking about. Patriots fans—after years of torture—are reveling in this team’s fortune. And the lack of (or perceived lack of) national acceptance of this team’s greatness brings out the worst in some Patriots fans.
So the Patriots and their fans become Public Enemy #1. The new Yankees. Hated, despised, and rooted against from all four corners of the globe. To my fellow fans I say this: Enjoy the ride. Years from now we’ll look back on this time as one of the greatest runs in sports history. And we won’t be alone. History has a way of magnifying greatness.
In the meantime, just because everyone else on earth will be rooting for the Saints to beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl, don’t worry about spoiling that magical ending. Just enjoy the ride.
* * *
Championship Weekend Picks
Last week vs. the spread: 2-2 Playoffs: 6-2
The final three playoff games last weekend were all won by 3 points. If this weekend’s games come anywhere close to matching the fun of those games, then the twelve straight hours spent on the couch will all be worth it. Oh, who am I kidding? Any day spent on the couch watching sports is worth it. Settle in for the final Sunday of wall-to-wall football before Super Bowl XLI.
NFC Championship Game New Orleans (+2½) over CHICAGO
Let’s start with the JV game. I sat there last week and wondered how a team with a shaky quarterback, an overrated defense, and a lousy coach could advance to the NFC Championship Game. And then I realized that two of them were playing each other, so one of them had to move on. All I want to know is what the Bears’ coaching staff was thinking during the final 2:15 of regulation. The Seahawks had a 4th down coming up with the clock running and the game tied. The Bears were certainly getting the ball back at some point, and they would either be tied or trailing—and yet they let the clock run down to the two-minute warning instead of taking a timeout. Worse, with less than 15 seconds remaining in regulation and the Seahawks once again facing a 4th down, the Bears waited until the clock ran down to 2 seconds to call a timeout. Of course, that left the Seahawks with enough time to do only one thing: Try to run a Hail Mary play. Talk about brilliant clock management and decision-making.
I’m not going with the Saints because of sentimental reasons . I’m going with the Saints because they’re the better team. They have the better quarterback (by far) and the better coach. When you’ve got those two check marks in your favor, you should win the game, no matter whom (or where) you’re playing.
And for those who think the Saints can’t win in the cold confines of Soldier Field, think about this: The Saints won their last three road games, with two of them coming against playoff opponents. Dome teams might be 0-9 in Championship Games outdoors, but that’s not going to matter. I honestly don’t even think this one will be close. Prediction: Saints 34, Bears 20
AFC Championship Game New England (+3) over INDIANPOLIS
After the Saints are done accepting the trophy in the middle of Soldier Field, it will be time for the match-up of the weekend. Patriots-Colts. I just watched the NFL Network replay of the regular season game these two played. I kept wondering one thing: How on Earth did the Patriots lose this game? Tipped passes, fumbles that went out of bounds, fantastic catches by Colts receivers, and questionable play-calling by the Patriots were the highlights. And the Patriots still had the ball with under two minutes left, down by 7. Their offense is playing at a much higher level now and the defense—which lost Rodney Harrison to injury early in the previous game—has made the adjustments that have made the unit more effective.
Everyone keeps talking about how well the Colts’ defense is playing in the playoffs. But they’ve gone up against a team in the Chiefs that refused to change its play-calling even when running up the middle against a 10-man front wasn’t working, and a team in the Ravens that ran the worst offense in a playoff game I’ve ever seen. What Colts fans should be concerned about is their offense. 23 points against the Chiefs? At home? And no touchdowns against the Ravens last week? It’s not going to get any easier against a defense that just held San Diego—the best offense in the NFL this season—to 21 points.
Last night I watched Super Bowl XXXVI in its entirety (thank you, NFL Network). And I was struck by three things. First, how astoundingly bad the telecast was. Pat Summerall and John Madden were worse than I ever remembered. It felt like a preseason game and they were working out the kinks. It’s hard to believe that was six years ago. If the score weren’t on the screen for the entire game I would have thought it was a game from the ‘80s. Second, U2 is one of the most legendary bands of all time. Other than the Beatles, no other musical group in rock history has grabbed the spotlight so effectively as they did at halftime of that game (when they did a tribute to the victims of 9/11) and during the pregame of the Saints’ opener this year (the first game in New Orleans since Hurricane Katrina). When tragedy hits, bring in U2. They rock the house.
Finally, the third thing that struck me while re-watching Super Bowl XXXVI was the fact that the Patriots beat that year’s best football team by out-coaching, out-scheming, and out-muscling them. The Patriots clearly did not have the better stats (24th in total defense that season) or players. And yet there they were, from the opening play until the final gun, dominating that game.
Brady’s top weapons that day were Troy Brown, David Patten, Jermaine Wiggins, J.R. Redmond, and Antowian Smith. You’re telling me an older, wiser Brady, can’t get it done now when his top weapons are named Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney, Troy Brown, Corey Dillon, and Laurence Maroney? I beg to differ. It’s the 2001 playoffs all over again, as Brady—with the Larry Bird-like quality of making those around him better—wills his team to the Super Bowl. Again. Prediction: Patriots 24, Colts 20
At first glance, the NFL playoffs took on an air of normalcy last weekend. After a crazy season, all four home teams won and advanced. This marked the first time since 2000 that all four home teams won in Round 1 (and just the second time since this playoff format was introduced in 1990). The better teams were playing at home and the better teams won. Not so crazy, right?
I even got my prediction swerve on. I had the Colts by 13, and they won by 15. I had the Patriots by 28, and they won by 21. I covered the spread on the two NFC games, missing out on the actual finishes by the slimmest of margins. I had Cowboys by 1, and they lost by 1; I had the Giants by 3 in overtime, and they lost by 3 on a last second field goal. Considering the year I had picking games, I’m as shocked as you are that I went 4-0 against the spread last week.
Upon closer inspection of the Wild Card weekend games, it’s clear that Crazy was in the house. Perhaps the most normal contest was the Patriots-Jets game. But that was the largest margin of victory in a game involving division opponents since 1992. The previous 24 games between division rivals were all settled by 20 points or less, with 11 of them decided by 10 or fewer points.
The Colts won comfortably—which wasn’t surprising—but the way they won was a shocker. The run defense (infamously awful in the regular season) treated Larry Johnson like Rocky’s punching bag. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis offense was unexpectedly pitiful. Peyton Manning and the offense usually play well in their first playoff game. Not this year. If not for Chiefs’ coach Herm Edwards’ refusal to change his offensive game plan, the Colts might have been knocked out last week.
The Giants and Eagles—NFC East division foes—played a tight contest, as expected. But it was still a strange game. The Giants had 2nd-and-30 late in the 4th quarter and yet scored the tying touchdown three plays later. Two drives before that, the Eagles started on the Giants’ 42 and yet had to punt. But the strangest part of this game was watching the Giants’ most mature leader on the field—Jeremy Shockey—try to take control of the game. There’s nothing stranger than the words “mature” and “leader” being used to describe Shockey. (By the way, can we call the Eli Manning Experience a failure yet? While his contemporaries are excelling, Manning seems to be getting worse. And how did Tom Coughlin keep his job? So many questions. So few answers.)
And then there was the game that everyone’s been talking about. Cowboys-Seahawks. The safety. The bizarre playcalling. The bobbled snap. It was all there for one of the all-time craziest NFL playoff games. One Cowboys fan described it to me this way: “Worst. Way. To. Lose. Ever.” As a lifelong Red Sox fan, I reminded him o####ame from October 1986 that ranks right up there. But I feel his pain. Add this to the list of heartbreakingly awful ways to lose.
I’ve been wracking my brain trying to come up with another sports scenario that would demonstrate how crazy of a way this was to lose. I came up with two from baseball that illustrate the contradiction between the ease of the play itself and the end result of Romo’s miscue. Up by one run, runners on 2nd and 3rd, and there’s an easy popup to the shortstop. The shortstop drops the ball and kicks it. Both runs score and his team loses. Or, same baserunning scenario, and the batter strikes out but the catcher drops the ball. He calmly picks it up, takes a step to his right to throw to first for the final out, and airmails it into right field.
I can’t emphasize enough how easy of a play this should have been. All Romo had to do was put the ball on the ground and the Cowboys would probably have won the game. Romo had already done the hard part—catch the snap. He just needed to place it on the ground, spin it, and put his finger on top of it. Placing it on the ground seems like the easiest part of the whole process, doesn’t it? The only other football play that seems easier than that would be the end of game kneeldown. Now that would be a way to lose. “Romo takes the snap, he takes a knee and the Cowboys-- Wait! He dropped the ball! The Seahawks pick it up and run all the way to the 15, the 10, the 5, touchdown!” Until that happens, Romo’s fumble will forever be the barometer for screwed up easy plays that cost the team the game.
So the Cowboys (my preseason Super Bowl pick) lost on one of the craziest plays ever, after a crazy season involving the craziest player in the NFL I didn’t really believe the Cowboys could go all the way at this point, but I stuck with my Super Bowl pick anyway. Sure, it sounded crazy, but crazy is as crazy does. I’m not even picking another NFC team to take their place at this point. The Ravens are my Super Bowl favorites now. And I don’t see any NFC team knocking off any of the potential AFC participants.
Meanwhile, we’ve got three superb games on tap for the weekend. The four best teams in the NFL go head-to-head (Chargers-Patriots and Ravens-Colts), and the two hottest teams in the NFC square off (Saints-Eagles). If there were ever a weekend to lock yourself indoors and watch 40 hours of football games, pregame shows, and highlights, this is the one. Of course, there’s still that other game (Bears-Seahawks). If you haven’t put the Christmas decorations away yet, or you want to go outside and enjoy the global warming, then I’d skip that one.
I’m trying not to let my 4-0 playoff record against the spread go to my head. I’m taking this one game at a time, playing within myself, giving 110%. I’ve broken down the game film, researched the stats, and am ready to make picks. I’ve had a good week of preparation, and am feeling good about the picks. Here’s the way I see this weekend’s games:
BALTIMORE (-4) over Indianapolis
I’m predicting the same score I did in my NFL Preview (when I had these two teams playing next week instead of this week). That was when I clued the world in on the fact that the Ravens would be the team to beat this year: “Defense is where this division will be won…Baltimore’s going to put it together this year, beat Pittsburgh twice, win the division, and keep the Steelers from the playoffs.” Check and check. I picture this one a 3-3 tie at the half, with Manning slowly getting more and more frustrated. Three Colts turnovers (and 0 by the Ravens) translate into a healthy win by the Ravens. As a matter of fact, this is my lock of the week. Prediction: Ravens 27, Colts 10
NEW ORLEANS (-5) over Philadelphia
The two best teams in the NFC go head-to-head. The winner should be heading to the Super Bowl. This is the one I’ve been struggling with all week. The Eagles are a brand new team since McNabb went down. Head coach Andy Reid decided to have a more balanced offense instead of passing on two out of every three downs, probably because he was afraid of letting Jeff Garcia fling the ball around. So what happens? Garcia throws just 2 interceptions in seven games and Brian Westbrook turns into a verifiable rushing force. Meanwhile, NFL coach of the year Sean Payton has molded his Saints into a dangerous team. Plus they’ve had the bye to prepare for this one. This game’s going to be tight, with the Saints scoring a late touchdown and then stopping the Eagles on the final play of the game. Prediction: Saints 31, Eagles 24
Seattle (+8½) over CHICAGO
One of these teams actually gets to play in the NFC Championship Game. Unbelievable. I was going to give this one the 12-9 final score treatment until I looked up my prediction for last year’s Bears playoff game and saw that I predicted 12-9 in that one (a 29-21 Carolina win). Let’s go back in time and read what I wrote before that game: “This is my hands-down, no-doubt-about-it, can’t-miss, money-in-the-bank, no-questions-asked lock of the week. The Panthers, having played the Bears once already this season, will not be surprised at the speed of the Bears’ linebackers. Chicago won’t end up with 8 sacks on Jake Delhomme as they did in the first meeting.” The Bears registered just one sack in that game. It’s still the same deal. Teams playing the Bears twice this year either did better (the Lions lost by 5 and the Packers won in their second meetings) or not much worse (the Vikings lost by 10 after losing the first game by 3). And all I have to say about Rex Grossman is this(from my recap of last year’s Bears’ playoff loss): “Did anyone outside of Chicago believe that Grossman was going to lead the Bears on a game-ty
