As matchbox twenty sings, “Let’s see how far we’ve come.”

Eighteen weeks after the 2007 season began, we’ve got an AFC Championship match-up that seemed plausible prior to the season, and an NFC match-up that no one saw coming back in August.

The road to Super Bowl XLII has been long and winding. With just one Sunday of football remaining before the hype truly begins, let’s take a look at what we’ve learned during this NFL season and postseason.

Jacksonville’s in the wrong division
Heck, they might even be in the wrong conference. They’ve lost five out of six to Indianapolis, leaving them without the opportunity to win their division year after year. This means a Wild Card spot at best and no real chance to make it to the Super Bowl. If they were in the NFC they might just be a perennial powerhouse.

This is a shame for the Jaguars, because they showed last week just how good they can be in their battle royale with the undefeated Patriots. It might have been the last tough game the Patriots have this year to tell you the truth. But the Jags still lost, and if they don’t find a way to get past the Colts (or get switched to a different division) painful road playoff losses remain in the Jaguars’ future.

The NFC is a crapshoot
Seven different teams have won an NFC division in the last two years. Only Seattle repeated as division champion this year. In the AFC, three of the four division champions repeated, with New England and Indianapolis winning their divisions for five straight years. If I needed to do my NFL 2008 preview right now, I’d go with New England, Indianapolis, and San Diego to repeat again, and Cleveland to get over the hump. And in the NFC? Who knows? How about Arizona, Washington, Detroit, and Atlanta?

Offense is in
It wasn’t just Tom Brady and Randy Moss and their record-setting seasons. Scoring was up across the board and there was no defense that stood out like in seasons past. The last Super Bowl champion that rode their offense to the title was the ’99 Rams (and that team actually gave up just 22 points over their final two games). The last seven champions held their first playoff opponent under 20 points, and all but the ’04 Patriots held their first two playoff opponents under 20 points. This week’s favorites to make the Super Bowl, the Patriots and Packers, each gave up 20 points in their first playoff games (and scored 31 and 42, respectively). This season, and playoffs, is all about the offense.

Resting players = losing playoff recipe
Tampa Bay rested their players for an unprecedented two straight weeks then lost at home to the Giants. The Cowboys and Colts both rested players prior to their bye week and both lost at home. Meanwhile, the Giants and Patriots battled to the death prior to the playoffs with nothing to gain and each stands one game from the Super Bowl. It’s a trend to keep an eye on for future postseasons.

Maybe it’s the Chargers who are the problem
After the Chargers questioned the Patriots’ class after last year’s playoff tussle (Public Enemy #1) I started to wonder if what the players were saying was true. But then I watched the Chargers jaw with the Broncos. And the Titans. And the Colts’ fans. And I thought, “maybe it’s the Chargers who have no class.” I’m just saying…

It’s a good thing Peyton won a ring last year
Watching the Colts blow another playoff game at home last week made me even angrier that the Patriots lost to them last year. But the perfect season wouldn’t have happened without that loss (more on that in a moment), so I guess in retrospect it was a good thing. For both the Patriots and Peyton Manning. The Colts won the Super Bowl, did it by going through the Patriots, and Peyton got his ring.

By the way he and his teammates played last week leads me to believe it might be his only ring. His best receiver was barely able to take the field (and then he fumbled when he did) and the offense’s play-calling was awful while the execution was even worse. Last year just might have been it for the Colts.

Yes, everyone, I’m sorry, but the Patriots are this good
It took the perfect storm of events to produce the first 17-0 team since the ’72 Dolphins. But that storm arrived. One year ago this weekend the first brick in the foundation was laid, as the Patriots’ offense couldn’t catch a key pass to win the game and the aging defense ran out of gas against the Colts. Then Belichick had to coach the Pro Bowl and I believe he secretly vowed to never be there again. New England loaded up with three wide receivers and the best defensive free agent on the market. Finally, “spygate” occurred, galvanized the team, and the rest is history.

I think Belichick’s defensive game plan for the last six weeks has been to play as vanilla as possible until the second half. If the game’s been close, he releases the hounds. Meanwhile, the offense continues to be a nearly unstoppable machine. It’s reached the point in which the first opponent’s turnover or punt signals that the game is officially over.