I've previously posted the following on my website.  Given the NHL trade deadline is only a month away as well as the rise in recent weeks of really stupid trade rumors -many involving players with no-trade/no movement clauses or expensive long-term contracts that are almost unmovable - I've decided to re-post this here.
 
Consider the following to be helpful tips for internet and media rumormongers - who'll never listen anyway but what the hell - in hopes that it'll improve their creativity:

1. Players with no-trade/no-movement clauses almost never waive them unless they're in the final season of their contract and stuck on a non-playoff team, and then only in the weeks heading into the trade deadline to facilitate a trade to a playoff club. They don't waive them mid-way through their contract or in the middle of the summer.

2. Teams almost never trade a talented young player for picks and prospects, especially when that player is one of their most talented.

Last August a rumor flying around had the Boston Bruins trading Patrice Bergeron to the NY Islanders for picks and prospects. Come on, at least be more creative! Claim the Bruins are shopping Bergeron for, oh, say, Trent Hunter and Mike Comrie, or Comrie and Marc-Andre Bergeron. Sure, those rumors are unlikely too, but at least they're not incredibly  stupid.

3. General managers are not on the phone every day trying to swing trades, ok? I keep hearing that nonsense and it's simply not true. If it was, they'd have no time to devote to other aspects of running a team, like scouting, managing payroll, and player development. Yes, they have assistants but GMs must stay involved in day-to-day activities.

Most general managers aren't talking trade in August, because most have already committed their cap space for the upcoming season and have yet to fully evaluate their new rosters during training camp and pre-season. Cap constraints during the season means the earliest trades will occur is mid-to-late November, as salaries start to become more affordable.

Usually, the bulk of the deal occur in February, the same month as the trade deadline, and most who get traded fall into the category noted in my first point (Impending UFA playing on non-playoff club willing to waive NTC to play for a contender).

4. Remember the salary cap. A team with limited cap space is not going to take on a player carrying a hefty salary without dumping a lot of salary in return, and those deals almost never happen because of the potential adverse affect to roster depth.  More often than not, a team trying to move a high-salaried player is trying to free up cap space, not add to it. Those rumors are the easiest to debunk, folks, so do try to keep the cap in mind when you're trying to dream up who might be a good fit where.

5. Teams aren't going to trade one high-salaried player for another if the other player doesn't solve a problem area. It makes no sense to trade a high-salaried forward in exchange for a high-salaried netminder if said netminder won't help them, so please, no silly "Brad Richards to Colorado for Jose Theodore" rumors.

6. Correctly predicting one rumored trade doesn't make you a genius prognosticator if you're wrong most of the time. One rumor out of one hundred coming true is nothing to crow about.  If you were a weather forecaster with that kind of prediction rate you'd be unemployed in no time!

I'll be impressed if you can be accurate with your calls at least ten percent every season. Remember, a stopped clock is right twice a day but no one considers it an accurate measure of time.

Just follow these simple rules and you too can come up with more creative trade rumors that at least have a foot partially in reality rather than both feet firmly planted on Fantasy Island.

Cheers.

With the NHL’s trade deadline fast approaching here’s my take on some players thought to be possible trade bait and who might be on the move by February 26th:

Mats Sundin: As long as the Toronto Maple Leafs have a shot at a playoff berth, he won’t waive his “no-trade” clause.

Marian Hossa: The Atlanta Thrashers are trying to re-sign him leading to speculation that if he’s not re-signed by the deadline he’ll be shopped. If the Thrashers are still in the playoff chase I suspect GM Don Waddell won’t move him, but if not, he could indeed hit the trade block.   

Alex Tanguay: His name’s popped up this past week due to media concerns about the Calgary Flames off-season cap issues, but he’s denied seeking a trade or being asked to waive his NTC. I suspect Flames GM Darryl Sutter could retain him for the upcoming playoffs and perhaps consider shopping him in the off-season.

Olli Jokinen: Ever notice that it’s Canadian-based media outlets that often report the Florida Panthers captain could be traded? Ever notice that to date they’ve yet to be right?

Rob Blake: He says he hasn’t agreed to waive his NTC or asked to waive it, but the possibility exists that this LA Kings blueliner could be playing elsewhere by February 26th.

Jaromir Jagr: If the NY Rangers were to shop him I have my doubts there’d be many takers given his low production this season and his reputation for moodiness.

Patrick Marleau: A fixture in the rumor mill since last April, his below-average stats and the expensive ($12.6 million) two year contract (with a no-trade clause) beginning next season should keep him in the Shark tank.

Dan Boyle and Vaclav Prospal: Tampa Bay Lightning GM Jay Feaster suggested that if the club fails to make a playoff push he could be forced into making some cost-cutting moves, leading to speculation impending UFAs Boyle and Prospal could be part of those moves.

Brian Campbell: He’s postponed his contract talks with the Buffalo Sabres until the off-season. That’s led to trade speculation that Sabres GM Darcy Regier rejected, claiming he hopes to re-sign Campbell. I believe him.  

Maxim Afinogenov and Dmitri Kalinin: The former has struggled offensively this season and the latter’s eligible for UFA status this summer. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of the Sabres trying to move either guy by the deadline.

J.P. Dumont: The Nashville Predators might not have enough money available this summer to re-sign him and if they’re out of the playoff race in a month’s time could consider shopping Dumont.

Michael Ryder: The Montreal Canadiens aren’t expected to re-sign him after this season and could try to move him in the coming weeks. His sub-par production this season however could hurt his trade value.

Nikolai Khabibulin: I wouldn’t doubt Chicago Blackhawks management would love to dump the remaining year and $6.75 million on his contract, but that and his poor performance this season won’t make him enticing to anyone at this year’s deadline.  

Yanic Perreault: The Chicago Blackhawks could try to peddle this faceoff specialist to a Stanley Cup contender.

#### Tarnstrom: He’s been considered the odd man out on the Edmonton Oilers blueline, and with some teams seeking a veteran puck-moving defenceman Tarnstrom could attract some attention leading up to the deadline.

Keith Carney: This blueline veteran was a frequent scratch in the first half of this season, and he could end up shopped by the Minnesota Wild in the coming weeks.

Christian Backman: Plenty of speculation the St. Louis Blues could shop a defenceman for depth elsewhere in the roster, and Backman’s name has been floated as part of those rumors.

Bear in mind, folks, that this is only a quick observation of who might or might not be dealt. There are likely to be players that no one suspected as trade bait who could be traded by February 26th, and that most of the above-mentioned players could end up staying with their respective teams.

Feel free to chip in with names you think might be on the move by the deadline. It'll be interesting to review this list and your takes after February 26th.

The NHL’s annual trade deadline is set this year for February 26th, and with only seven weeks to go anticipation is growing over which teams might be buyers or sellers and which players could be dealt.

Don’t however expect any blockbuster deals to go down between now and February 26th.

Most players swapped at this time of years are those in the final year of their contracts, usually those eligible for unrestricted free agency in July, who usually end up as mere “playoff rentals” with their new clubs and are then quickly cast aside when the playoffs are over.

Those which are “buyers” are of course teams that are already considered either Stanley Cup contenders or at least an almost certain lock for a post-season berth. Those teams considered “sellers” are of course those with almost no hope of making the playoffs and are looking to get something in return for players they don’t intend to re-sign after the season.

Consensus has it that playoff contenders can better their chances of post-season success by bolstering their roster with “rental players”.

Sometimes, it works as the Carolina Hurricanes acquisition in January 2006 of Doug Weight and Mark Recchi.

The Edmonton Oilers acquired Dwayne Roloson the day prior to the March 2006 trade deadline, and Sergei Samsonov from Boston on deadline day. Both were significant factors in the Oilers march that spring to the Stanley Cup finals.

More often than not, however, it doesn’t.

For example, in the weeks leading up to the February 2007 trade deadline, the Atlanta Thrashers acquired Keith Tkachuk, the NY Islanders Ryan Smyth, the Dallas Stars Ladislav Nagy, and the Nashville Predators Peter Forsberg.

All of those teams were eliminated in the first round of last spring’s playoffs.

The Ottawa Senators acquired Mike Comrie and Oleg Saprykin and advanced to the 2007 Stanley Cup finals, but that had more to do with the Senators overall depth than Comrie and Saprykin. Both have been forgotten for the most part by Senators fans.

Jose Theodore was acquired from the Montreal Canadiens by the Colorado Avalanche before the 2006 trade deadline, but the Avs only made it to the second round of the playoffs that season, and have been burdened with his heavy contract and inconsistency since.

These are just a few notable examples, but there are many more where deadline deals turn into busts more often than success.

That doesn’t however prevent general managers from taking the risk on relatively affordable, short-term acquisitions that can be quickly jettisoned by July if they fail to pain out.

And it’s the uncertainty over which buyers will acquire which players that keeps many hockey fans hooked on trade rumors, no matter how wild or ridiculous the rumors, keeping me in business for which I’m very thankful.

So enjoy the upcoming seven weeks of wild speculation, rumor fans. Just don’t be too disappointed when most of those big name players that have been bandied about in the media and internet as trade candidates end up remaining with their present teams. 

Courtesy of NHL Public Relations:

    How is a trade made?

      After two clubs have come to an agreement on a trade, the clubs must
advise the League office, either by telephone or by FAX, of the terms of
the trade.  The League office then schedules a conference call with the two
teams to review the transaction and give final approval for the deal. Prior
to the trade call, the League office will ensure that the team has the
appropriate salary cap space to make the deal; if draft choices are
involved, that the club has the available choices; and that the team has
available space on its reserve list to add the player (s).  It should be
noted that the 23-man roster restriction is no longer in force from
February 27 on.

      On the trade call, the League will a) review the terms of the player
contracts and ensure that teams are aware of their respective obligations
to the player (s) involved; b) ensure that, should a player have a no-trade
clause, that the player has waived that right; and c) ensure that any
conditions to consummation of the transaction have been clearly defined and
agreed upon.

      The trade becomes official after the trade call has taken place.

What if a player involved in a transaction has a "no trade" clause?

      No trade clauses can vary from player to player.  For example, a
player may have a list of teams that he has agreed to be traded to.  The
League requires written documentation from the player that he has waived
his no trade clause.  If applicable, the documentation must also stipulate
which teams the player has agreed it is permissible for him to be traded
to.

Can a trade take place after the 3:00 P.M. ET deadline on February 27,
2007?

      Trade calls may take place after the 3:00 p.m. deadline but the
League must have been advised of any and all transactions, including the
specific details,  prior to 3:00 p.m.  It is not unusual that a number of
trades are agreed to between the clubs just before 3:00 p.m.  However, due
to the volume of trades occurring just prior to the deadline, the League
may not be able to conduct the actual trade call until after 3:00 p.m.
There are four League officials that conduct trade calls and calls may last
anywhere from 10 to 30 minutes depending on the complexity of the deal.

How is a player's salary charged against a team's salary cap when a trade
is made at the deadline?

      The salary that is charged against a team's cap is the pro rated
amount remaining of the player's average yearly salary. For example, if a
player has an average yearly salary of $2 million, the amount charged
against the acquiring team's cap is the pro-rated amount remaining of $2
million.

      This is calculated by dividing $2 million by the number of days in
the season (187).  The amount ($10,695) is then multiplied by the number of
days remaining in the season from the day the trade is made (41 days if
trade is on deadline day) to ascertain the amount charged against the
team's cap ($438,502). 

As of this writing it's exactly a week until trade deadline day, which is always a busy (and profitable) day for me.

From Saturday through to Tuesday, I'll be closed up in my nerve center (ok, it's only my den) ready to report and analyse the trades as they go down. I'll average about three hours sleep per night during this time, since I have to stay up for any breaking news from the West Coast during that time.

That means I'll average about a pot of coffee per day, but such is the price of bringing you all my take on the deals as they happen.

Yeah, it can be a bit tiring, but it's lots of fun and what makes this job so great!

Anyway, so much for breaking down how I'll spend my 96 hours leading up to the deadline.

What's notable now is the silence since Monday on the trade front. With all the NHL general managers meeting in Florida it was thought more deals would be announced, but thus far nothing.

The reason for this, of course, is that this is traditionally when the framework of potential deals are worked out. Just because nothing's been announced doesn't mean these guys are talking trade in between the other issues currently on their plate.

I suspect that once their meetings end by tomorrow there'll be more player movement as the days wind down toward deadline day.

Last year saw a record number of players on the move on deadline day and this year I anticipate around the same. Some of the big names currently in the rumor mill will probably be gone before February 27th but I expect there'll remain plenty more to be moved by then.

Who knows, we may even see a deal or two involving some players we never considered trade bait.

There's some talk that the steep asking prices for some of the "name" players on the market might prohibit their movement, but I suspect as deadline day nears those prices will drop. Many of those players are unrestricted free agents and if their current teams won't re-sign them, they won't risk losing most of them to the UFA market this summer for nothing. They'll try to get something decent in return.  

Check in regularly to my website and my column for the latest rumors and here for trade analysis.

It's been several days since the 2006 NHL March Trade Deadline, but despite the record number of trades made, the overall assessment amongst those in the media was that it was dull compared to previous ones.

"Where were the blockbuster trades?" is the common refrain, with the blame being placed on the salary cap and holding the deadline earlier in the schedule.

There actually was a blockbuster deal, the Jose Theodore trade, which occured the day before the deadline, but there wasn't really anything done on the day itself to compare with that move.

If one looks back on the recent deadline days since 2000, you'd be hard-pressed to find any deals that would be considered "blockbusters", whereby a big name player gets dealt.

In 2001, the biggest names on the move on deadline day were Donald Audette, Richard Zednik, Trevor Linden, Sean O'Donnell, Mike Sillinger, Curtis Leschyshyn, Aki Berg, and Dainius Zubrus.

Those players hardly stirred excitement on that deadline day.

The 2002 deadline saw several "name" players on the move. The most notable deals were the Florida Panthers tradingl Pavel Bure to the NY Rangers the day before the deadline and the Devils and Stars engage in a major swap of players late on "D-Day" itself, with Joe Nieuwendyk and Jamie Langenbrunner dealt to New Jersey in exchage for Jason Arnott, Randy McKay and a first round pick.

It's a good thing that deal went down when it did, because the rest of the players on the move that day - Bob Corkum, Jiri Slegr, Lyle Odelein, Sean Brown, Mike York and an aging Adam Oates - would've made that the slowest deadline day of the decade so far.

The 2003 deadline saw a then-record 24 trades, but like this year, the best deals occurred before deadline day.

The Leafs stupidly dealt away Alyn McCauley, Brad Boyes and a first round pick for Owen Nolan 6 days before the deadline. The day before deadline day, the Flyers acquired Tony Amonte from Phoenix for a minor league and the Sabres stole Daniel Briere from the Coyotes in exchange for Chris Gratton.

Then came deadline day, where the biggest names on the move were Mathieu Schneider, Mike Van Ryn, Valeri Bure, Anson Carter, Radek Dvorak, Janne Niinimaa, Brian Smolinski, and the washed up Sergei Berezin and fading Doug Gilmour and Phil Housley.

Yawn.

And 2004 was no different that 2003, with a lot of "name" players shipped out in the days leading up to the deadline but no "blockbusters" on the actual day itself.

Alex Kovalev, Brian Leetch, Petr Nedved, Sergei Gonchar, Robert Lang, and Peter Bondra were those on the move before deadline day.

On the day itself? Curtis Brown, Greg de Vries, Geoff Sanderson, Martin Rucinsky, Brian Savage, Martin Gerber, Mike Grier, Chris Gratton (again), Derek Morris, Valeri Bure (again), Brian Holzinger, Tommy Salo, Ossi Vaananen, Shane Hnidy, Alexander Karpotsev, Marc Bergevin, Brad Boyes (again) and an aging Ron Francis.

Whoop-de-doo.

Sure, Gerber and Boyes are emerging as valuble players, but at the time, few other than the teams they played for knew who they were.

So spare me the whining about the supposed lack of blockbuster trades on this year's deadline day. As recent history has shown, lots of average players get moved on "D-Day", but few blockbuster deals involving "name" players ever occurs.

That's a trend that has nothing to do with an earlier date or the salary cap, meaning it's likely to continue for some time.

The New CBA and the salary restrictions it contains was supposed to have an adverse impact on this past trade deadline, or at least that was the claim of some observers.

Yet we've seen a record 25 trades, involving 40 players.

Granted, few of the deals involved "name" players, but it did prove that, i####M wanted to bolster his roster badly enough, and had the cap room and the depth in picks and prospects, deals can still be made.

If there is a good thing about the salary cap and the trade deadline, it's how it allowed small market playoff contenders, at least this season, to be buyers at the deadline, rather than sellers as in years past. Edmonton, Carolina and Nashville all benefitted from it, although it certainly didn't hurt the latter two that they had significant cap space to absorb extra salaries.

But of course this was just the first trade deadline under the new CBA. Time will tell if the salary restrictions will have any affect on future deadlines.

One thing that could, if the team owners get their way, is the possibility of allowing four more teams to make the playoffs. If there are more teams trying to qualify for the playoffs, it could limit the number of trades more than any cap restrictions.

Next season, the cap rises to at least $42 million, and that could mean more teams with more cap space in play.

The Vancouver Canucks have taken another step in shoring up their blueline, obtaining defenseman Keith Carney from the Anaheim Mighty Ducks for a draft pick and prospect. Details to follow.

Heading into today, Canucks GM Dave Nonis had to bolster his injury-ravaged blueline and bring in an experienced backup goaltender. Mission accomplished.

Carney will make a terrific playoff rental for the Canucks, and he didn't have to trade a roster player to do it. Well done, Mr. Nonis.

There's still some chatter of Nonis getting inquiries for Todd Bertuzzi, but now that Nonis has filled his needs, there's really no reason for him to trade Big Bert unless the goal is to dump his salary. Don't hold your breath on that one.

The Buffalo Sabres (as expected) traded goaltender Mika Noronen to the Vancouver Canucks in exchange for a second round pick.

No surprise here. The Sabres were shopping Noronen aggressively for the past ten days, and I expected the Canucks to deal for an affordable backup with NHL experience. Noronen was the only logical fit there.

This effectively puts to rest the Martin Biron trade rumours...at least until the June draft weekend and the days leading up to the July 1 UFA market.

TSN reports the Ottawa Senators have picked up goalie Mike Morrison from Edmonton, forward Rico Fata was picked up from Atlanta by the Washington Capitals and forward Andy Hilbert was plucked from Chicago by the Pittsburgh Penguins.

As the deadline draws nearer these moves could be the harbinger of trades to occur. Stay tuned...

TSN reports the Phoenix Coyotes have taken goaltender Curtis Joseph off the market.

An earlier report in today's Arizona Republic quoted head coach Wayne Gretzky as forewarning "CuJo" that he might be dealt if the right offer came along but that the Coyotes weren't shopping him nor did he anticipate Joseph being traded.

TSN.ca reports the Washington Capitals will sit defenseman Brendan Witt for tonight's game against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Obviously they don't want to risk his getting hurt while they work to move him by 3 pm EST tomorrow.

Because so many of you asked, here's the players I believe will be dealt by 3 PM EST Thursday:

Brendan Witt, Washington Capitals. Requested to be dealt. GM George McPhee and team owner Ted Leonsis claim they'll most likely honor that request. Plenty of interest in him, and since he's a UFA at season's end, the Caps will get the best deal they can for him. Potential destinations include Nashville and Los Angeles.

Mika Noronen, Buffalo Sabres. It's still possible that Martin Biron could be the one on the way out, as he's a UFA at season's end, but GM Darcy Regier's mindset has changed after Biron essentially saved their season last fall when Ryan Miller was out with a broken thumb. He'd like to keep Biron around as insurance for the playoffs. Noronen wants to move and it's been reported Regier let the other 29 teams know he's available. Maybe the Vancouver Canucks would be a good destination as they could probably use a decent backup for the overworked Alexander Auld.

Dwayne Roloson, Minnesota Wild. As I noted in my post earlier this week, the Wild's re-signing Manny Fernandez to a long-term deal means he's on his way out, either via trade or free agency. There's talk of him going to Edmonton but I don't see the Wild shipping him to a divisonal rival they're trying to catch. A possible destination could be Tampa Bay, where there continues to be concerns over their goaltending, and the LA Kings could be another

Curtis Joseph, Phoenix Coyotes. The Oilers desire for a goaltending upgrade makes Edmonton a potential destination for "CuJo". The Lightning could also be another destination, as could the Kings.

Eric Weinrich, St. Louis Blues. Several playoff contenders are in the market for a blueline upgrade, and while Weinrich is long in the tooth, he might attract interest as a playoff rental provided the Blues asking price isn't too high. They're believed seeking a "high draft pick" but may have to settle for less if they truly wish to get something for him.

Mark Recchi, Pittsburgh Penguins. He's now claiming he'll agree to be dealt only if the trade benefits the Penguins. The Philadelphia Flyers, Carolina Hurricanes, LA Kings and Anaheim Mighty Ducks are believed shopping for offensive help, and all have depth in promising and affordable depth that could tempt the Penguins.