Back in November I took a look at how the most expensive players of the NHL's Free Agent Class of 2007 were faring at the 20 game point of the season.
Now that we've recently passed the mid-season point of the 2007-08 NHL campaign, here's a look at how they're faring now:
Daniel Briere, Philadelphia Flyers - 2007-08 salary: $10 million. Salary cap hit: $6.5 million.
Previously on pace for: 41 goals, 61 assists, 102 points. Currently on pace for: 32 goals, 49 assists, 89 points.
Scott Gomez, New York Rangers – 2007-08 salary: $10 million. Salary cap hit: $7.357 million.
Previously on pace for: 14 goals, 44 assists, 58 points. Currently on pace for: 18 goals, 57 assists, 75 points.
Thomas Vanek, Buffalo Sabres – 2007-08 salary: $10 million. Salary cap hit: $7.143 million.
Previously on pace for: 21 goals, 36 assists, 57 points. Currently on pace for: 23 goals, 25 assists, 48 points.
Kimmo Timonen, Philadelphia Flyers – 2007-08 salary: $8 million. Salary cap hit: $6.33 million.
Previously on pace for: 10 goals, 38 assists, 48 points. -14 Currently on pace for : 12 goas, 33 assists, 45 points. -2
Ryan Smyth, Colorado Avalanche: - 2007-08 salary: $7.5 million. Salary cap hit: $6.25 million.
Previously on pace for: 21 goals, 28 assists, 50 points. Currently on pace for : 22 goals, 34 assists, 56 points (Currently injured & sidelined until late-February)
Chris Drury, New York Rangers – 2007-08 salary: $7.1 million. Salary cap hit: $7.05 million.
Previously on pace for: 17 goals, 34 assists, 51 points –3. Currently on pace for : 21 goals, 34 assists, 55 points, -21
Pavel Datsyuk, Detroit Red Wings: 2007-08 salary: $6.7 million. Salary cap hit. $6.7 million.
Previously on pace for: 24 goals, 65 assists, 89 points, +38. Currently on pace for: 30 goals, 66 assists, 96 points, +47
Previously on pace for: 12 goals, 43 assists, 55 points, +18 in 67 games. Currently on pace for: 10 goals, 28 assists, 38 points, +22 in 67 games.
Roman Hamrlik, Montreal Canadiens – 2007-08 salary: $5.5 million. Salary cap hit: $5.5 million.
Previously on pace for: 7 goals, 31 assists, 38 points. +24. Currently on pace for: 5 goals, 27 assists, 32 points, +11
Michael Nylander, Washington Capitals – 2007-08 salary: $5.5 million. Salary cap hit: $4.875 million.
Previously on pace for: 20 goals, 52 assists, 72 points, -43 Currently on pace for : sidelined indefinitely, was on pace for 21 goals, 50 assists, 71 points.
Mats Sundin, Toronto Maple Leafs – 2007-08 salary: $5.5 million. Salary cap hit: $5.5 million.
Previously on pace for: 39 goals, 59 assists, 98 points, +23. Currently on pace for: 36 goals, 53 assists, 89 points, +20.
Scott Hartnell, Philadelphia Flyers – 2007-08 salary: $5.2 million. Salary cap hit: $4.2 million
Previously on pace for: 11 goals, 18 assists, 29 points, +7. Currently on pace for : 21 goals, 21 assists, 42 points, +16
It’s now well past the quarter mark of the NHL season, and time enough I think for a look at how this past summer’s top UFA players are faring thus far.
This analysis will cover those players earning $5 million or more for this season. The salary information courtesy of nhlnumbers.com. All statistics as of November 29th, 2007, and the “on pace for” stats courtesy of TSN.ca.
Daniel Briere, Philadelphia Flyers - 2007-08 salary: $10 million. Salary cap hit: $6.5 million. Stats: 12 goals, 18 assists, 30 points, -4. Tied for team scoring lead with Mike Richards. 8th overall in league scoring. On pace for: 41 goals, 61 assists, 102 points.
Analysis: If Briere can reach over 40 goals and 100 points as projected and remain among the team and league scoring leaders he’ll have been worth every penny to the Flyers, at least for this season. It remains to be seen over the following seven years if he’ll continue to be worth the annual cap hit.
Scott Gomez, New York Rangers – 2007-08 salary: $10 million. Salary cap hit: $7.357 million. Stats: 4 goals, 13 assists, 27 points, plus-minus of 0. Currently second-highest in team points race behind Jaromir Jagr. On pace for: 14 goals, 44 assists, 58 points.
Analysis: I was sure Gomez would flourish if allowed to play on a more offensive team, but this year’s Rangers are emulating the defensive styling of his former team, the New Jersey Devils, and his stats are suffering accordingly. Gomez is a good player but at this point, he’s grossly overpaid.
Thomas Vanek, Buffalo Sabres – 2007-08 salary: $10 million. Salary cap hit: $7.143 million. Stats: 6 goals, 10 assists, 16 points, -2. Third highest points this season amongst Sabres. On pace for: 21 goals, 36 assists, 57 points.
Analysis: The Sabres were forced last summer into matching the Edmonton Oilers’ offer sheet to retain Vanek’s services. Thus far, it’s not money well spent, but it must be remembered that Vanek is still young (23) and is likely feeling the pressure from earning as much as he presently does. As he matures and regains his high-scoring form he should be worth it, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a Sabres fan that believes it right now.
Kimmo Timonen, Philadelphia Flyers – 2007-08 salary: $8 million. Salary cap hit: $6.33 million. Stats: 3 goals, 11 assists, 14 points. –4. Flyers fifth-leading scorer, 13th amongst NHL defencemen in points. On pace for: 10 goals, 38 assists, 48 points. –14.
Analysis: Acquired by the Flyers from Nashville last June along with Scott Hartnell and re-signed. Timonen’s a good defenseman and what he’s on pace for in points is around what he’s been averaging since 2001-02. Is he worth $8 million this season or $6.33 million per season? No. Not when you consider that this season he’s earning more than great defencemen like Nicklas Lidstrom and Chris Pronger.
Ryan Smyth, Colorado Avalanche: - 2007-08 salary: $7.5 million. Salary cap hit: $6.25 million. Stats: 6 goals, 8 assists, 14 points. –8. Sixth leading point-getter for the Avs this season. On pace for: 21 goals, 28 assists, 50 points, -28.
Analysis: Smyth’s offensive production is on pace for his lowest totals since his injury-shortened performance in 2001-02. He does bring intangibles such as leadership, character and physicality, but that doesn't mean he should be earning more this season than Vincent Lecavalier and Jarome Iginla.
Chris Drury, New York Rangers – 2007-08 salary: $7.1 million. Salary cap hit: $7.05 million. Stats: 5 goals, 10 assists, 15 points. –1. Rangers fourth-leading scorer. On pace for: 17 goals, 34 assists, 51 points –3.
Analysis: Like Smyth, Drury brings many intangibles to his game and like Smyth he’s on pace for his lowest points productions since 2001-02. And like Smyth, he’s earning far more than his worth.
Pavel Datsyuk, Detroit Red Wings: 2007-08 salary: $6.7 million. Salary cap hit. $6.7 million. Stats: 7 goals, 19 assists, 26 points +11. Red Wings second-leading scorer. On pace for: 24 goals, 65 assists, 89 points, +38.
Analysis: The Wings re-signed Datsyuk in April, avoiding the summer rush, and thus far haven’t been disappointed in their investment. He and Henrik Zetterberg are two main reasons why the Red Wings remain among the league’s elite teams. I’d say he’s making fair market value.
Sheldon Souray, Edmonton Oilers: 2007-08 salary: $6.25 million. Salary cap hit: $5.4 million. Stats: 6 games play, two points. Sidelined by separated shoulder since October 17th. Return date unknown.
Analysis: The Oilers ponied up big bucks for the hard-shooting Souray to be their number one defenceman and anchor their power play. It remains to be seen if he’ll recapture the high-scoring form he had last season with the Montreal Canadiens and their high-scoring powerplay, and since he’s currently injured I cannot make an accurate assessment of his performance this season.
Paul Kariya, St. Louis Blues – 2007-08 salary: $6 million. Salary cap hit: $6 million. Stats: 7 goals, 17 assists 24 points, +4. Leads the Blues in points. On pace for: 26 goals, 63 assists, 89 points +15.
Analysis: One reason the Blues are such an improved team this season is the addition of Kariya, who provided some much-needed offensive punch. If he should reach 89 points it’ll be his highest single-season points production in nearly ten years. He still has to prove his worth as a postseason performer but players get paid for their regular season performances, and thus far Kariya’s earned his pay.
Brian Rafalski, Detroit Red Wings – 2007-08 salary: $6 million. Salary cap hit: $6 million. Stats: 3 goals, 17 assists, 20 points, +7. Fifth in teams points, and fourth in league poinnts lead for defencemen. On pace for: 10 goals, 58 assists, 68 points, +24
Analysis: If there’s one player the New Jersey Devils miss most this season, it’s Rafalski, who’s now become a key member of the Red Wings blueline corps. True, he’s once again playing in the shadow o####reat defenseman - this time Lidstrom - but Rafalski is one of the league’s top blueliners and worthy of his salary this season.
Andrei Markov, Montreal Canadiens – 2007-08 salary: $5.75 million. Salary cap hit: $5.75 million. Stats: 6 goals, 13 assists, 19 points –6. Canadiens third leading scorer, fifth amongst league defencemen. On pace for: 20 goals, 44 assists, 65 points, -20.
Analysis: Sheldon who? That’s what Canadiens fans are saying as Markov has finally stepped out of the shadows and into his own as one of the league’s best all-round defencemen. Don’t be fooled by the minus stat, as he’s been consistently on the plus side of the ledger most of his NHL career and could finish on the happy side of the ledger by season's end. Some critics scoffed at the Habs re-signing him for that much, but he’s obviously worth it.
J-S Giguere, Anaheim Ducks – 2007-08 salary: $5.5 million. Salary cap hit: $6 million. Stats: 8-6-2, 2.50 GAA, .906 SP. On pace for: 26-20-7, 2.50 GAA, .906 SP.
Analysis: Giguere’s had a slow start thus far, missing pre-season and the start of this season recovering from off-season sport hernia surgery. Still, he’s been rounding back into form as he gets healthier, and when healthy he’s proven to be among the game’s top goalies, as well as perhaps among the most under-rated despite his impressive resume.
Mathieu Schneider, Anaheim Ducks – 2007-08 salary: $5.5 million. Salary cap hit. $5.625 millon. Stats: 2 goals, 7 assists, 9 points, +3 in only 11 games played On pace for: 12 goals, 43 assists, 55 points, +18 in 67 games.
Analysis: When healthy the 38-year-old Schneider appears to be a good addition to the Ducks defence corps, but this season the problem has been his health, as he’s already missed half of the Ducks games thus far this season to injury. Still, if he can finally shake off that injury bug he could prove well worth his salary, although he won’t make Ducks fans forget Scott Niedermayer.
Roman Hamrlik, Montreal Canadiens – 2007-08 salary: $5.5 million. Salary cap hit: $5.5 million. Stats: 2 goals, 9 assists, 11 points, +7. On pace for: 7 goals, 31 assists, 38 points. +24.
Analysis: Eyebrows were raised when the Canadiens paid so much for Hamrlik, but he’s one of those all-round blueliners whose worth is more than just point production. The Habs did pay a bit too much for his services, but he wanted to play in Montreal, and his overall skills and experience have proven invaluable to the Canadiens this season. Right now, I doubt Habs fans are complaining.
Michael Nylander, Washington Capitals – 2007-08 salary: $5.5 million. Salary cap hit: $4.875 million. Stats: 6 goals, 16 assists, 22 points, -13, currently second in Capitals scoring. On pace for: 20 goals, 52 assists, 72 points, -43
Analysis: At this pace Nylander appears on his way to similar numbers he posted with the Rangers, although he’ll have to pick up his performance to get close to last season’s 89 points. Still, if he can keep this up he’ll be well worth his salary as one of the few bright spots for the Capitals this season.
Mats Sundin, Toronto Maple Leafs – 2007-08 salary: $5.5 million. Salary cap hit: $5.5 million. Stats: 12 goals, 18 assists, 30 points, +7. Leads the Leafs in scoring and is 8th in the league in points. On pace for: 39 goals, 59 assists, 98 points, +23.
Analysis: Re-signed by the Leafs last summer. Leafs fans and media can find plenty to complain about this season but the one thing they all agree on is Sundin thus far is on his way toward his second-best season in his career. He’s certainly earned his salary thus far, but some critics are stumping for the Leafs to move him now while his value is high rather than risk a potential late-season drop-off in production that could affect a return. Problem is, Sundin has a “no-trade” clause and has not stated a willingness to waive it.
Scott Hartnell, Philadelphia Flyers – 2007-08 salary: $5.2 million. Salary cap hit: $4.2 million Stats: 3 goals, 5 assists, 8 points, +2 On pace for: 11 goals, 18 assists, 29 points, +7.
Analysis: Acquired by the Flyers from the Predators along with Kimmo Timonen and re-signed. Thus far the only thing Hartnell’s been notable for is delivering a questionable hit recently on a Boston Bruins defenseman. True, he’s only 25 and the Flyers paid for potential based on his two 20+goal seasons in Nashville, but so far he’s yet to play up to that potential and earn those big bucks. The Flyers are on the hook for five more seasons after this one at an average cap hit of $4.2 million, so they’ll be counting on him to reach that potential over that time.
The Philadelphia Flyers got the jump on the upcoming unrestricted free agent market on Monday, acquiring defenseman Kimmo Timonen and forward Scott Hartnell from the Nashville Predators.
In return, the Flyers shipped back to the Predators their first round pick (23rd overall) which the Predators had dealt to the Flyers last February as part of the Peter Forsberg trade.
The Flyers then signed Timonen to a 6-year, $37.8 million contract and Hartnell to a 6-year, $25.2 million deal.
With this move Flyers GM Paul Holmgren has secured two key additions to his roster, as well as displayed the kind of audacity his predecessor Bob Clarke was once known for.
Predators fans might be questioning why their club gave up so much for so little. The answer lies in the impending sale of the team.
As per a report in the Canadian newspaper National Post this weekend, the approval of the sale of the Predators isn’t likely to be finalized before June 30th, meaning current owner Craig Leipold is still on the hook for next season’s payroll.
The Post article suggested that as a result the Predators might start gutting their roster, starting by cutting loose impending unrestricted free agents like Timonen and Hartnell. Today’s trade proves that the Preds front office had no intention of retaining these two, and casts doubt onto the possibility of Paul Kariya and Peter Forsberg – also eligible for UFA status - returning next season.
It could also stoke speculation that the Predators could begin a “fire-sale” of their best players. Roster cuts could be limited, however, as the Predators would have to meet the league’s minimum salary requirement, or salary cap “floor”, as mandated under the collective bargaining agreement.
The spread between the salary cap “ceiling” and “floor” is $16 million. With the salary cap anticipated to rise to approximately $48.5 million, the cap “floor” would thus be $32.5 million. Presently the Predators have over $33 million committed to 13 players for next season.
Even if the Predators were to conduct a roster “fire sale” their payroll must be no less than $32.5 million by the start of next season, which could prevent management from potentially dumping most of their best players currently under contract.
It was rumored for months that Holmgren coveted Timonen and would make a big pitch for him if he hit the UFA market. By landing he and Hartnell in a trade, Holmgren effectively eliminated any possibility of either losing them in a bidding war to a rival team or having their market values jacked higher than he was willing to pay.
Timonen could be paired with fellow Finnish blueliner Joni Pitkanen in hopes of tutoring Pitkanen in improving his defensive game.
It’s also possible this move could lay the groundwork for a trade of Pitkanen, who was dogged by trade rumors throughout last season. Tim Panaccio of the Philadelphia Inquirer posted to his Hockeybuzz blog that the Flyers had filed for arbitration against Pitkanen last week, although Holmgren denies an intention to trade him.
In Hartnell, Holmgren is banking on the 25-year-old reaching his full potential in the coming years. He’s projected as a power forward and loves to play a physical game but injury has hampered his development.
At the very least he’ll be a welcome addition to the Flyers second line.
These moves could also have a significant impact upon Holmgren’s other potential off-season moves. The salaries of Timonen and Hartnell will count as a combined $10.5 million against the Flyers salary cap, pushing it to almost $42 million committed to 19 players for next season.
Holmgren was thought to be in the market for a scoring center like Scott Gomez or Daniel Briere and rumored to be planning to make an offer sheet to Buffalo’s Tomas Vanek.
Given how much he’s already got committed to next season’s payroll, signing any of those players now appears a remote possibility, which could instead have Holmgren looking at more affordable, second-tier talent barring a possible salary-dumping trade elsewhere.
I'm Lyle Richardson, also known as Spector, Foxsports.com 's "Prince of Pucks".,which is based on the fact I live in Prince Edward Island, Canada and I couldn't think of a better byline. I've been an NHL hockey commentator since 1998 on my website, Spector's Hockey, and I'm a contributing writer for Foxsports.com , The Hockey News and Eishockey News. I'm also a regular on The Faceoff Hockey Show and a frequent guest on "The Late Crew" on The Team 1200 Ottawa.
