Spector's Blog
by: Spector
Helpful NHL Trade Rumor Tips.
Jan 24, 2008 | 2:53PM | report this
I've previously posted the following on my website.  Given the NHL trade deadline is only a month away as well as the rise in recent weeks of really stupid trade rumors -many involving players with no-trade/no movement clauses or expensive long-term contracts that are almost unmovable - I've decided to re-post this here.
 
Consider the following to be helpful tips for internet and media rumormongers - who'll never listen anyway but what the hell - in hopes that it'll improve their creativity:

1. Players with no-trade/no-movement clauses almost never waive them unless they're in the final season of their contract and stuck on a non-playoff team, and then only in the weeks heading into the trade deadline to facilitate a trade to a playoff club. They don't waive them mid-way through their contract or in the middle of the summer.

2. Teams almost never trade a talented young player for picks and prospects, especially when that player is one of their most talented.

Last August a rumor flying around had the Boston Bruins trading Patrice Bergeron to the NY Islanders for picks and prospects. Come on, at least be more creative! Claim the Bruins are shopping Bergeron for, oh, say, Trent Hunter and Mike Comrie, or Comrie and Marc-Andre Bergeron. Sure, those rumors are unlikely too, but at least they're not incredibly  stupid.

3. General managers are not on the phone every day trying to swing trades, ok? I keep hearing that nonsense and it's simply not true. If it was, they'd have no time to devote to other aspects of running a team, like scouting, managing payroll, and player development. Yes, they have assistants but GMs must stay involved in day-to-day activities.

Most general managers aren't talking trade in August, because most have already committed their cap space for the upcoming season and have yet to fully evaluate their new rosters during training camp and pre-season. Cap constraints during the season means the earliest trades will occur is mid-to-late November, as salaries start to become more affordable.

Usually, the bulk of the deal occur in February, the same month as the trade deadline, and most who get traded fall into the category noted in my first point (Impending UFA playing on non-playoff club willing to waive NTC to play for a contender).

4. Remember the salary cap. A team with limited cap space is not going to take on a player carrying a hefty salary without dumping a lot of salary in return, and those deals almost never happen because of the potential adverse affect to roster depth.  More often than not, a team trying to move a high-salaried player is trying to free up cap space, not add to it. Those rumors are the easiest to debunk, folks, so do try to keep the cap in mind when you're trying to dream up who might be a good fit where.

5. Teams aren't going to trade one high-salaried player for another if the other player doesn't solve a problem area. It makes no sense to trade a high-salaried forward in exchange for a high-salaried netminder if said netminder won't help them, so please, no silly "Brad Richards to Colorado for Jose Theodore" rumors.

6. Correctly predicting one rumored trade doesn't make you a genius prognosticator if you're wrong most of the time. One rumor out of one hundred coming true is nothing to crow about.  If you were a weather forecaster with that kind of prediction rate you'd be unemployed in no time!

I'll be impressed if you can be accurate with your calls at least ten percent every season. Remember, a stopped clock is right twice a day but no one considers it an accurate measure of time.

Just follow these simple rules and you too can come up with more creative trade rumors that at least have a foot partially in reality rather than both feet firmly planted on Fantasy Island.

Cheers.
5 Comments | Add a comment   categories: NHL, Trades, Trade Rumors, Trade Deadline, No Trade Clause, Unrestricted Free Agents
 
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jmarks24
Jan 25, 2008
8:55 AM
Spector enjoyed that piece, gives a great look at how these things work.
Couple of questions, you mentioned in an earlier blog about the Blues trading Christian Backman, what value can the Blues get for him, and how much cap space do the Blues have? Can't figure out where to find the cap space numbers.

Thanks

ian2813
Jan 25, 2008
6:10 PM
I've seen this stuff in other sports too. It's hilarious.

Spector
Jan 25, 2008
6:37 PM
jmarks: Backman has merely been suggested as a potential trade candidate in the St. Louis Post Dispatch, it's not certain if he's the guy who might get dealt.

The Blues have over $43 million committed to payroll for this season. Next season thus far it's over $31 million. If they did move Backman that would cut $3.4 million (although his cap hit is actually $2.3 mil).

Carolina and Chicago are searching for a puckmoving d-man, so they might have interest in Backman.

devs4forever
Jan 26, 2008
9:00 AM
jmarks - nhlscap.com is a great site for the cap numbers.

Bleue_blanc_et_rouge
Jan 31, 2008
8:36 AM
What if someone says "One of my sources very close to a team in one of the 2 NHL conferences told me a trade is likely to happen for a top 6 defenceman to a team thats playoff bound....stay tuned". Is that a good prediction? Oh, I got a good idea for you Spector, you could come up with a rumour rating chart, like S1 for slim possibility up to S5 if it's 99% almost definately most likely to probably happen at some point in time. That could really test your accuracy...couldn't it?

Keep up the good work, I enjoy reading your articles, and your opinions always include the cap, and NTC, which others rarely mention!

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ABOUT ME


Spector
I'm Lyle Richardson, also known as Spector, Foxsports.com
's "Prince of Pucks".,which
is based on the fact I live in Prince Edward Island, Canada and I couldn't think of a better byline. I've been an NHL hockey commentator since 1998 on my website, Spector's Hockey, and I'm a contributing writer for Foxsports.com
, The Hockey News and Eishockey News. I'm also a regular on The Faceoff Hockey Show and a frequent guest on "The Late Crew" on The Team 1200 Ottawa.
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