The NHL’s annual trade deadline is set this year for February 26th, and with only seven weeks to go anticipation is growing over which teams might be buyers or sellers and which players could be dealt.
Don’t however expect any blockbuster deals to go down between now and February 26th.
Most players swapped at this time of years are those in the final year of their contracts, usually those eligible for unrestricted free agency in July, who usually end up as mere “playoff rentals” with their new clubs and are then quickly cast aside when the playoffs are over.
Those which are “buyers” are of course teams that are already considered either Stanley Cup contenders or at least an almost certain lock for a post-season berth. Those teams considered “sellers” are of course those with almost no hope of making the playoffs and are looking to get something in return for players they don’t intend to re-sign after the season.
Consensus has it that playoff contenders can better their chances of post-season success by bolstering their roster with “rental players”.
Sometimes, it works as the Carolina Hurricanes acquisition in January 2006 of Doug Weight and Mark Recchi.
The Edmonton Oilers acquired Dwayne Roloson the day prior to the March 2006 trade deadline, and Sergei Samsonov from Boston on deadline day. Both were significant factors in the Oilers march that spring to the Stanley Cup finals.
More often than not, however, it doesn’t.
For example, in the weeks leading up to the February 2007 trade deadline, the Atlanta Thrashers acquired Keith Tkachuk, the NY Islanders Ryan Smyth, the Dallas Stars Ladislav Nagy, and the Nashville Predators Peter Forsberg.
All of those teams were eliminated in the first round of last spring’s playoffs.
The Ottawa Senators acquired Mike Comrie and Oleg Saprykin and advanced to the 2007 Stanley Cup finals, but that had more to do with the Senators overall depth than Comrie and Saprykin. Both have been forgotten for the most part by Senators fans.
Jose Theodore was acquired from the Montreal Canadiens by the Colorado Avalanche before the 2006 trade deadline, but the Avs only made it to the second round of the playoffs that season, and have been burdened with his heavy contract and inconsistency since.
These are just a few notable examples, but there are many more where deadline deals turn into busts more often than success.
That doesn’t however prevent general managers from taking the risk on relatively affordable, short-term acquisitions that can be quickly jettisoned by July if they fail to pain out.
And it’s the uncertainty over which buyers will acquire which players that keeps many hockey fans hooked on trade rumors, no matter how wild or ridiculous the rumors, keeping me in business for which I’m very thankful.
So enjoy the upcoming seven weeks of wild speculation, rumor fans. Just don’t be too disappointed when most of those big name players that have been bandied about in the media and internet as trade candidates end up remaining with their present teams.
Any rumours out there of "big names" being shiped off. On hockey buzz theres a good article about sundin asking to be traded because it'll help the team...he could always re-sign in the off season. Ovi going to montreal??? Stall to edmonton??? Just about every team has a player or two who could be dealt at or before the deadline because the team is out of the playoffs or they know they won't resign that player by july 1st.
I love the idea of Ovi going to montreal...he deserves it. But as you know by know, I really want to talk about the flames lol.....any fun rumours involving the flames out there???
OntarioFlamesFan: Ignore those silly fantasies about Ovechkin or Staal going anywhere. Any big names who get moved are those in the final year of their contracts, eligible for UFA status and willing to waive their no-trade clauses (where applicable), like Mats Sundin or Marian Hossa.
TKF: Stuart and Nagy were signed to one-year deals because management wanted to see if it would worthwhile retaining them after this season. Nagy may have earned that, but not Stuart.
Thus, as you suggest, if they fail to pan out they can be easily moved without having a lengthy contract hurting their trade value. If they do work out then it justifies signing them to a longer term.
parity and salary cap mitigate against mediocre teams dumping pending free agents at the deadline. the relative value of draft picks and prospects is increasing as teams promote from within. consequently, there are fewer sellers and buyers are more frugal.
there were only two meaningful intraseason deals for a Cup champion from the 70's through the early 90's. Montreal's trade for Frank Mahovlich and the Isles' pickup of Goring in 1980. The Isles could have won without Goring, but Mahovlich lead all scorers playoff goals and points to bring another parade to the Forum.
however, winning a Cup is not the reason to make deadline trades. every home playoff game adds over a million dollars of profit to a team's coffers. if that incremental player helps win a single postseaon game, they more than pay for themselves. deadline deals make teams a lot of money, even if they don't lead to championships.
I was so excited when the Sharks got Guerin at the deadline last year. Unfortunaly he too turned out to be a bust, a major bust. This year the sharks should go for a good experienced defenceman, and a back up goalie. Patzold is definatly not ready for the NHL yet, he proved that in his relief games. I wouldn't be suprised if Selanne comes bak around the deadline rather than mid-season so the Ducks can handle his salary better.
I think habsync really put a great point on this. I will bow to board historian Matt's POV on how many of these deals really mattered in the end, but I feel GMs in the big markets do read the papers and simply try to acquire somebody just to do it at times. Keeping up with the Joneses might not be the best way to run a team, but let's face it, the excitement is not lost on them. Obviously you're not going to just sign whoever's out there, but when you suddenly have a Guerin or Forsberg or Blake or whoever sitting out there, there must be a big temptation to go get him and figure it out later. Even the franchises run really well have been guilty of this, and as Spector indicated, it certainly does make it fun for all of us armchair pundits.
I don't see Sundin getting traded. Why? Because, imagine this, he's a classy individual. I'm not saying that him asking to be traded would downgrade my opinion of him, because frankly, I'd be pounding the drum to get the hell out of Toronto as fast as possible, but he's put up with a lot during his tenure there and he can be comfortable in knowing he's the best player ever to don that uniform when he retires. That's not bad. So does he pull the Ray Bourque, get tired of the nonsense, and hook up with a winner? Possible, but he's got PLENTY left in the tank and I think he'd sooner depart during the offseason if at all. Only if the deal would greatly benefit Toronto and send him to a top flight team do I see that becoming reality.
1) As very few teams are 'out of it' there will probably be very few sellers, and perhaps quite a few buyers. Potentially driving up the prioce for a rental.
2) Imagine adding a Sundin or a Hossa? That said, we prefered the trade deadline later in the season.
3) Its good for both the teams as less salary needs to be paid out, and sometimes an injury can create a sudden need.
4) Its good for players as many can get away from a losing team and have a shot at a Cup. Its good for the NHL in general as 'Trade Deadline Day creates a buzz of excitent that recently has been tempered by a lack of big deals!
habsync: If you want to expand it to "intraseason deals" for Cup contenders, then the Wings getting Shanahan at the beginning of 96-97 was a vital move. Shanny had played Hartford's first game of the year and then went to Detroit for their first game, thus technically intraseason. :-) But , yes, as far as actual deadline deals go, most bomb horribly. (I still cringe at the memory of the Wings bringing in Wendel Clark, Bill Ranford, Ulf Samuelsson, and Chelios in 99... At least Chelios panned out.)
The Wings did make a deadline deal in '97 as well though, getting Larry Murphy from Toronto. Not a huge pickup, but he was solid and was a perfect partner for Nick Lidstrom.
fogal - good point. in my post i limited my comments to the 70's through early 90's and so didn't address the Shanahan trade. I think 95-05 were wild cowboy years of trading. Which other than deals for Roy, Shanahan and perhaps Ray Sheppard didn't really jilt the playoff outcomes. I think we are headed back to a more quiet era of trading, for the many astute reasons that Spector often cites.
in all fairness, i omitted the landmark deal that brought Francis and Samuelsson to the Pens in March 1991. that was probably one of the top deadline deals in history.
Yeah, in '91 and '92 had huge deals for Ron Francis, Ulf Sammuelson, Grant Jennings, Rick Tocchet, Ken Wregget, and Kjell Sammuelson. All of those players were vital in winning those Cups. Gary Roberts and Georges Laraque were good moves last year, that worked out more so this year. Like you said though, more so if the free agent contracts and what not not a whole lot of deals are going to be made. Probably a bunch of minor deals, but they have funny way of working out more anyway.
"Deadline Deals That Made a Difference" would be an interesting article to research, reaching back over the last 20 years or so. We might have to expand the definition of "deadline" to "late season", but I'd be curious to see how many of those deals for impact players really resulted in anything meaningful.
It would be fascinating to look on the flip side as well: If there was no short-term gain for the buyers, how did the sellers make out on the longer term? Perfect case in point: Edmonton shipped Tommy Salo to Colorado at the deadline in 2004. Salo was insurance, riding the pine for the Avs and retired in the off-season. The prospect the Oilers got in the deal -- Tom Gilbert -- is a solid looking rookie defenseman who could've fit in nicely on the Avs blueline.
There is no small amount of irony that the Quebec Nordiques (the team that unloaded Eric Lindros) and the New York Rangers (the team that thought they'd traded for Eric Lindros) both won Cups with the players they gained/didn't lose in those deals, while the Philadelphia Flyers with Lindros earned but a single trip to the Final.
I wonder how much undiscovered irony awaits us in probing the deadline deals?
I'm Lyle Richardson, also known as Spector, Foxsports.com 's "Prince of Pucks".,which is based on the fact I live in Prince Edward Island, Canada and I couldn't think of a better byline. I've been an NHL hockey commentator since 1998 on my website, Spector's Hockey, and I'm a contributing writer for Foxsports.com , The Hockey News and Eishockey News. I'm also a regular on The Faceoff Hockey Show and a frequent guest on "The Late Crew" on The Team 1200 Ottawa.
