Spector's Blog
by: Spector
How Are Last Summer’s Top NHL Free Agents Faring?
Nov 30, 2007 | 7:57AM | report this
It’s now well past the quarter mark of the NHL season, and time enough I think for a look at how this past summer’s top UFA players are faring thus far.

This analysis will cover those players earning $5 million or more for this season. The salary information courtesy of nhlnumbers.com. All statistics as of November 29th, 2007, and the “on pace for” stats courtesy of TSN.ca.

Daniel Briere, Philadelphia Flyers - 2007-08 salary: $10 million. Salary cap hit: $6.5 million.
Stats: 12 goals, 18 assists, 30 points, -4. Tied for team scoring lead with Mike Richards. 8th overall in league scoring.
On pace for: 41 goals, 61 assists, 102 points.

Analysis: If Briere can reach over 40 goals and 100 points as projected and remain among the team and league scoring leaders he’ll have been worth every penny to the Flyers, at least for this season. It remains to be seen over the following seven years if he’ll continue to be worth the annual cap hit.

Scott Gomez, New York Rangers – 2007-08 salary: $10 million. Salary cap hit: $7.357 million.
Stats: 4 goals, 13 assists, 27 points, plus-minus of 0. Currently second-highest in team points race behind Jaromir Jagr.
On pace for: 14 goals, 44 assists, 58 points.

Analysis: I was sure Gomez would flourish if allowed to play on a more offensive team, but this year’s Rangers are emulating the defensive styling of his former team, the New Jersey Devils, and his stats are suffering accordingly. Gomez is a good player but at this point, he’s grossly overpaid.

Thomas Vanek, Buffalo Sabres – 2007-08 salary: $10 million. Salary cap hit: $7.143 million.
Stats: 6 goals, 10 assists, 16 points, -2. Third highest points this season amongst Sabres.
On pace for: 21 goals, 36 assists, 57 points.

Analysis: The Sabres were forced last summer into matching the Edmonton Oilers’ offer sheet to retain Vanek’s services. Thus far, it’s not money well spent, but it must be remembered that Vanek is still young (23) and is likely feeling the pressure from earning as much as he presently does. As he matures and regains his high-scoring form he should be worth it, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a Sabres fan that believes it right now.

Kimmo Timonen, Philadelphia Flyers – 2007-08 salary: $8 million. Salary cap hit: $6.33 million.
Stats: 3 goals, 11 assists, 14 points. –4. Flyers fifth-leading scorer, 13th amongst NHL defencemen in points.
On pace for: 10 goals, 38 assists, 48 points. –14.

Analysis: Acquired by the Flyers from Nashville last June along with Scott Hartnell and re-signed. Timonen’s a good defenseman and what he’s on pace for in points is around what he’s been averaging since 2001-02. Is he worth $8 million this season or $6.33 million per season? No. Not when you consider that this season he’s earning more than great defencemen like Nicklas Lidstrom and Chris Pronger.

Ryan Smyth, Colorado Avalanche: - 2007-08 salary: $7.5 million. Salary cap hit: $6.25 million.
Stats: 6 goals, 8 assists, 14 points. –8. Sixth leading point-getter for the Avs this season.
On pace for: 21 goals, 28 assists, 50 points, -28.

Analysis: Smyth’s offensive production is on pace for his lowest totals since his injury-shortened performance in 2001-02. He does bring intangibles such as leadership, character and physicality, but that doesn't mean he should be earning more this season than Vincent Lecavalier and Jarome Iginla.

Chris Drury, New York Rangers – 2007-08 salary: $7.1 million. Salary cap hit: $7.05 million.
Stats: 5 goals, 10 assists, 15 points. –1. Rangers fourth-leading scorer.
On pace for: 17 goals, 34 assists, 51 points –3.

Analysis: Like Smyth, Drury brings many intangibles to his game and like Smyth he’s on pace for his lowest points productions since 2001-02. And like Smyth, he’s earning far more than his worth.

Pavel Datsyuk, Detroit Red Wings: 2007-08 salary: $6.7 million. Salary cap hit. $6.7 million.
Stats: 7 goals, 19 assists, 26 points +11. Red Wings second-leading scorer.
On pace for: 24 goals, 65 assists, 89 points, +38.

Analysis: The Wings re-signed Datsyuk in April, avoiding the summer rush, and thus far haven’t been disappointed in their investment. He and Henrik Zetterberg are two main reasons why the Red Wings remain among the league’s elite teams. I’d say he’s making fair market value.

Sheldon Souray, Edmonton Oilers: 2007-08 salary: $6.25 million. Salary cap hit: $5.4 million.
Stats: 6 games play, two points. Sidelined by separated shoulder since October 17th. Return date unknown.

Analysis: The Oilers ponied up big bucks for the hard-shooting Souray to be their number one defenceman and anchor their power play. It remains to be seen if he’ll recapture the high-scoring form he had last season with the Montreal Canadiens and their high-scoring powerplay, and since he’s currently injured I cannot make an accurate assessment of his performance this season.

Paul Kariya, St. Louis Blues – 2007-08 salary: $6 million. Salary cap hit: $6 million.
Stats: 7 goals, 17 assists 24 points, +4. Leads the Blues in points.
On pace for: 26 goals, 63 assists, 89 points +15.

Analysis: One reason the Blues are such an improved team this season is the addition of Kariya, who provided some much-needed offensive punch. If he should reach 89 points it’ll be his highest single-season points production in nearly ten years. He still has to prove his worth as a postseason performer but players get paid for their regular season performances, and thus far Kariya’s earned his pay.

Brian Rafalski, Detroit Red Wings – 2007-08 salary: $6 million. Salary cap hit: $6 million.
Stats: 3 goals, 17 assists, 20 points, +7. Fifth in teams points, and fourth in league poinnts lead for defencemen.
On pace for: 10 goals, 58 assists, 68 points, +24

Analysis: If there’s one player the New Jersey Devils miss most this season, it’s Rafalski, who’s now become a key member of the Red Wings blueline corps. True, he’s once again playing in the shadow o####reat defenseman - this time Lidstrom - but Rafalski is one of the league’s top blueliners and worthy of his salary this season.

Andrei Markov, Montreal Canadiens – 2007-08 salary: $5.75 million. Salary cap hit: $5.75 million.
Stats: 6 goals, 13 assists, 19 points –6. Canadiens third leading scorer, fifth amongst league defencemen.
On pace for: 20 goals, 44 assists, 65 points, -20.

Analysis: Sheldon who? That’s what Canadiens fans are saying as Markov has finally stepped out of the shadows and into his own as one of the league’s best all-round defencemen. Don’t be fooled by the minus stat, as he’s been consistently on the plus side of the ledger most of his NHL career and could finish on the happy side of the ledger by season's end. Some critics scoffed at the Habs re-signing him for that much, but he’s obviously worth it.

J-S Giguere, Anaheim Ducks – 2007-08 salary: $5.5 million. Salary cap hit: $6 million.
Stats: 8-6-2, 2.50 GAA, .906 SP.
On pace for: 26-20-7, 2.50 GAA, .906 SP.

Analysis: Giguere’s had a slow start thus far, missing pre-season and the start of this season recovering from off-season sport hernia surgery. Still, he’s been rounding back into form as he gets healthier, and when healthy he’s proven to be among the game’s top goalies, as well as perhaps among the most under-rated despite his impressive resume.

Mathieu Schneider, Anaheim Ducks – 2007-08 salary: $5.5 million. Salary cap hit. $5.625 millon.
Stats: 2 goals, 7 assists, 9 points, +3 in only 11 games played
On pace for: 12 goals, 43 assists, 55 points, +18 in 67 games.

Analysis: When healthy the 38-year-old Schneider appears to be a good addition to the Ducks defence corps, but this season the problem has been his health, as he’s already missed half of the Ducks games thus far this season to injury. Still, if he can finally shake off that injury bug he could prove well worth his salary, although he won’t make Ducks fans forget Scott Niedermayer.

Roman Hamrlik, Montreal Canadiens – 2007-08 salary: $5.5 million. Salary cap hit: $5.5 million.
Stats: 2 goals, 9 assists, 11 points, +7.
On pace for: 7 goals, 31 assists, 38 points. +24.

Analysis: Eyebrows were raised when the Canadiens paid so much for Hamrlik, but he’s one of those all-round blueliners whose worth is more than just point production. The Habs did pay a bit too much for his services, but he wanted to play in Montreal, and his overall skills and experience have proven invaluable to the Canadiens this season. Right now, I doubt Habs fans are complaining.

Michael Nylander, Washington Capitals – 2007-08 salary: $5.5 million. Salary cap hit: $4.875 million.
Stats: 6 goals, 16 assists, 22 points, -13, currently second in Capitals scoring.
On pace for: 20 goals, 52 assists, 72 points, -43

Analysis: At this pace Nylander appears on his way to similar numbers he posted with the Rangers, although he’ll have to pick up his performance to get close to last season’s 89 points. Still, if he can keep this up he’ll be well worth his salary as one of the few bright spots for the Capitals this season.

Mats Sundin, Toronto Maple Leafs – 2007-08 salary: $5.5 million. Salary cap hit: $5.5 million.
Stats: 12 goals, 18 assists, 30 points, +7. Leads the Leafs in scoring and is 8th in the league in points.
On pace for: 39 goals, 59 assists, 98 points, +23.

Analysis: Re-signed by the Leafs last summer. Leafs fans and media can find plenty to complain about this season but the one thing they all agree on is Sundin thus far is on his way toward his second-best season in his career. He’s certainly earned his salary thus far, but some critics are stumping for the Leafs to move him now while his value is high rather than risk a potential late-season drop-off in production that could affect a return. Problem is, Sundin has a “no-trade” clause and has not stated a willingness to waive it.

Scott Hartnell, Philadelphia Flyers – 2007-08 salary: $5.2 million. Salary cap hit: $4.2 million
Stats: 3 goals, 5 assists, 8 points, +2
On pace for: 11 goals, 18 assists, 29 points, +7.

Analysis: Acquired by the Flyers from the Predators along with Kimmo Timonen and re-signed. Thus far the only thing Hartnell’s been notable for is delivering a questionable hit recently on a Boston Bruins defenseman. True, he’s only 25 and the Flyers paid for potential based on his two 20+goal seasons in Nashville, but so far he’s yet to play up to that potential and earn those big bucks. The Flyers are on the hook for five more seasons after this one at an average cap hit of $4.2 million, so they’ll be counting on him to reach that potential over that time.

Hat tip to Matt Taylor for the suggestion.

26 Comments | Add a comment   categories: NHL, Free Agents, Scott Gomez, Daniel Briere, Thomas Vanek, Kimmo Timonen, Ryan Smyth, Chris Drury, Pavel Datsyuk, Sheldon Souray, Paul Kariya, Brian Rafalski, Andrei Markov, JS Giguere, Mathieu Schneider, Roman Hamrlik, Michael Nylander, Mats Sundin, Scott Hartnell
 
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total comments: 26      Page 1 of 1     
Avs19
Nov 30, 2007
8:24 AM
hey spec, did i miss it or did you not mention teh avs other signing hannan. I was wondering what you thought of him so far. right now i'm not impressed with his -14, but the whole team has been struggling. i know what hes done in teh past, and hope he can get back to that.

Spector
Nov 30, 2007
8:27 AM
Avs19: As per my opening paragraph this only covers those players earning $5 million or more this season.

As for Hannan, I concur with your assessment of his performance thus far.

Avs19
Nov 30, 2007
8:30 AM
oh sorry read through that kinda quick and missed that part.

LetsGoBuffalo
Nov 30, 2007
8:52 AM
Spector-Would you say Briere has been the best signing thus far?

Vanek doesn't deserve the salary he's being paid but he'll be worth it a few years down the road.

Matt_McCallum
Nov 30, 2007
9:16 AM
Lyle, bless you!

HermanZeGerman and I have been having a spirited discussion in a previous thread (the Sutherby trade) which in part covers the value of signing free agents. I was contemplating the daunting task of assembling the analysis you've just put together to advance the argument. Thanks very much for doing that heavy lifting!

It would be great if you'd consider updating this assessment at mid-season and at the end of year, and take into account not only individual production but team performance as well. (For example, Ryan Smyth might have an off-year statistically, but if he helps get Colorado into the Stanley Cup Final, then that will be money well spent.)

This could become a great regular feature!

HermanZeGerman
Nov 30, 2007
9:44 AM
Vanek was an RFA, not an UFA and, therefore, should not be on this list. Thank you very much to that louche Mr. Lowe.

Matt_McCallum
Nov 30, 2007
9:54 AM
HermanZeGerman:

Man, the bitterness you've got toward Kevin Lowe about the Thomas Vanek offer sheet, you'd think every penny of that $7 million salary was coming out of your pocket!

(I can write short replies every once in a while.)

HermanZeGerman
Nov 30, 2007
10:05 AM
MMC:

I only added the second sentence for your benefit! I wanted to see how long it would take for you to respond. Job well done.

Loving your brevity,
-HzG

Matt_McCallum
Nov 30, 2007
10:09 AM
HermanZeGerman:

We aim to please! And thanks for the email!

SYF
Nov 30, 2007
11:59 AM
Datsyuk is worth the longest contract in Wings' history...every damn cent of it. Zetterberg will be worth as much and he will be re-signed by the Wings. There is reason to believe that Hasek won't be back next year combined with the stellar play of Osgood will make it "easy" (relatively speaking, of course) for the Wings to re-sign Zetterberg to a well-worth-it pay raise and a lengthy contract. As long as the Wings keep their talented core intact and win games, Lidstrom will be re-signed as well.

Spector
Nov 30, 2007
12:17 PM
Glad to help, Matt, and I believe I will take you up on your suggestion to revisit this at mid-season and end season.

OntarioFlamesFan
Nov 30, 2007
8:41 PM
Was Datsyuk a free agent??? I thought detroit just loked him up so he wouldn't becomeone...and did a damn smart thing by doing so, he's single handedly bringing me back into my hockey pool. But if we're going to mention his signing, I think we have to talk about some other. Locking up Thorton was smart by the sharks, and dito with Iggy. Both of those singings are significant because they signed for almost the exact same money, around 7 mill or so. These are smart signings, and great for both teams respectivly becasue both of those guys could have gottne a lot more if they hit the market. They both opted to take a lot of money, but a lot less then they could have to help out the teams they are doing well with.

And did you see that hit Thorton got from behind that caused him to miss all that time???

OntarioFlamesFan
Nov 30, 2007
8:41 PM
Thats because Thorton is a great player and doesn't put himself in that kind of position

bishop7979
Nov 30, 2007
9:41 PM
What was Petr Sykora making, 2.5 mil a year? 9 goals and 8 assists in 24 gms, whats that like 35 goal season? For 2.5 mil thats a steal in this league. And he wanted to go to Pittsburgh, he actually called Shero and pitched himself to the team.

Marty Walker
Dec 1, 2007
5:28 AM
Please shoot me.

Cobra31
Dec 1, 2007
1:00 PM
Hi Lyle:
I really enjoyed reading this one, and the comments of Matt und dieser Deutsche Mann[ the german]. These 2 guys obviously spend a lot of time studying and looking up facts for our entertainment.
Another interesting subject might be the signing/trading histories of the bonehead GM's who sign these guys.
regards
Cobra

P.S.
Matt and Der Deutsche Mann. Keep up the good work, I enjoy it

Last edited by Cobra31 on December 1st at 1:01 PM.

jonblaze007
Dec 1, 2007
1:29 PM
ok, I can't say I"m not enjoying gomez's struggles as a Devils fan. I said from day one he was getting more than he was worth. The guy just isn't a goal scorer. not to mention now that the Devs have turned things around and got back to winning and are now 2 points out of first, without Gomez or Rafalski. Not having Raffy hurts. He was a fan favorite and a great player. The devils have, however, gotten good play out of their young guys like Andy Greene. That takes the sting out of losing Raffy. but he is deffinatly worth the $$$, unlike Gomez. In two years the Rangers willl be losing their minds cause over paying him will make him unmovable once they realize he isn't what they thought they were getting

Last edited by jonblaze007 on December 1st at 1:30 PM.

jonblaze007
Dec 1, 2007
1:31 PM
oh yea, Zach Parise is THE MAN!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol I just love watching him play.

Spector
Dec 1, 2007
4:01 PM
Hi,Cobra, yes, Herman and Matt can always be counted on to provide thought-provoking comments to my posts.

True_kings_fan
Dec 2, 2007
10:31 PM
Remember the Kings spent 10 million on a #5 d-man and a 4th line center

Thanks deAN

fogal
Dec 3, 2007
7:38 AM
I was initially disappointed when Mathieu Schneider left the Wings (especially to go to the Ducks!), but that disappeared a little when they signed Rafalski. At the time I said he was the best replacement they could have gotten to fill that hole. Did I ever understate that! Rafalski is definitely one of the best signings of the summer for any team... His skating and ability to make the first pass are phenomenal and he sees the ice extremely well.

While I do still miss having Schneider's cannon from the point, Rafalski has been a perfect complement for Lidstrom. I fully expect Rafalski to finish pretty close behind Nick for the Norris Trophy this year!

Felix_12
Dec 3, 2007
10:15 AM
I agree with all of your thoughts Spec. It's funny that when you actually sit down and go through who's earning their money and see how few of them are actually earning it, (though in my opinion none of them deserve millions for playing a sport).
Out of your list of 16 (not counting Souray), really only half of those are earning their pay. I was also taking into account Giguere's poor play against the Oilers the past two games.

AEROMECH
Dec 4, 2007
4:43 AM
Spector,
Would you apply for the GM position of the Washington Capitals when they finally do fire George Mcfly?
Look at the Free Agents they brought in this year. Victor(I like to stand and watch OV) Koslov, Tom (who me check someone) Poti, and Mike (Puck hog Mr. -13) Nylander.

Last edited by AEROMECH on December 5th at 5:30 AM.

Spector
Dec 4, 2007
4:55 AM
You wouldn't be asking me that if you saw how my SIM league team was doing...;)

Black Diamond
Dec 5, 2007
10:10 PM
Why is Free Agents signings difficult. GM"s said when they sign these "Key Player" they are suppose to help the team get better, I'm a Kings fan and no free agent signing have done nothing. And we are 31st in the league. Marc Crawford job should be on the line because we are not winning!

Last edited by Black Diamond on December 5th at 10:11 PM.

DugP
Dec 23, 2007
4:20 PM
Hey Avs19, I'm with you on Scott Hannan. In order to assess Hannan, the Av's need to add a catagory just for him called "bumps" instead of "hits". He leads the league in "bumps" but so far has only put a hit on an opponent in self defense. Not at all what he was promoted to be as the "big free agent signing" the Av's advertised this summer. Still looking for more physical play from the Av's if they are going to go anywhere in the playoffs. They can get there allright but without more physical play, they will be One and Done in the first round......Sorry Spector, didn't mean to get off your subject, but I think you will agree that even though Hannan is not at the $5 mil level,he still might be overpaid for what was expected of him.

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ABOUT ME


Spector
I'm Lyle Richardson, also known as Spector, Foxsports.com
's "Prince of Pucks".,which
is based on the fact I live in Prince Edward Island, Canada and I couldn't think of a better byline. I've been an NHL hockey commentator since 1998 on my website, Spector's Hockey, and I'm a contributing writer for Foxsports.com
, The Hockey News and Eishockey News. I'm also a regular on The Faceoff Hockey Show and a frequent guest on "The Late Crew" on The Team 1200 Ottawa.
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