One week after the Edmonton Oilers signed Anaheim Ducks forward Dustin Penner to a five-year, $21.5 million contract, Ducks general manager Brian Burke announced he wouldn’t match the offer, allowing Penner to officially become an Oiler.
In return the Ducks will receive as compensation the Oilers first, second and third round picks in 2008.
Debate has been considerable both on this blog and elsewhere in hockey cyberspace as to whether or not this is a good signing by the Oilers.
It’s obvious that Penner at this point in his career isn’t worth a $4.3 million per season salary, but that’s what it took – an unmatchable offer – for Oilers GM Kevin Lowe to ensure he’d get his man.
For Burke, it’s easier to let Penner walk, although he bears the responsibility for allowing this situation to occur in the first place. If he’d re-signed Penner to a more reasonable $2-$2.5 million per season contract (comparable that which the Oilers signed Joffrey Lupul to last year), none of this would’ve happened.
Still, it’s a minor loss for Burke, who was likely more upset over the fact it was his good buddy Lowe who signed away Penner.
Burke’s priority is to ensure he re-signs the better-talented former linemates of Penner, Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry.
Both these players become restricted free agents next summer, and both are likely to command as much – if not more – than what their former linemate received from the Oilers.
And if Burke hopes to prevent another team from trying to pitch those two offer sheets next July, he’d best be starting contract talks now, before their respective performances in the upcoming season potentially drives their value even higher.
Don’t blame Penner for signing that offer sheet, Ducks fans. He saw a chance to make big money, much more than he was being offer by the Ducks, and decided to take it, thus ensuring financial security for himself and his family.
And don’t blame Kevin Lowe for pitching that offer, for he’s fully entitled to do so under the CBA. Burke had plenty of time and opportunity to keep Penner off the market and failed to do so.
All eyes will now be on the Oilers next season and how well Penner performs.
Kevin Lowe is taking a huge gamble with Penner, one that could end up costing him his job.
If Penner plays like the second coming of John LeClair (or even a reasonable facsimile), Lowe will look like a genius for not only signing him away from the Ducks, but getting him for a bargain price of $4.3 million per season for five years.
However, if Penner should fold like his former Ducks teammates Lupul did last season with the Oilers, Lowe will have saddled his team with an immovable contract eating up valuable cap space, and that could end up being the epitaph of his career as the Oilers’ general manager.
It’s a huge risk, and even if Penner plays reasonably well there’s no certainty that he’ll make the Oilers a better hockey team.
There’ll be pressure on Penner to perform well and play up to now-lofty (and perhaps unreasonable) expectations, but even if he tanks it, he’s guaranteed big money for the next five years.
That contract is the only guarantee thus far in this situation.
Agreed. I think this was the right move by Burke. I'm no fan of Burke but could his inability to sign Penner (do we know what he was asking?) be attributable to the unknown status of Niedermayer and Selanne?
I think it doubtful Penner will turn around the Oilers (though I wish him the best) which means those draft picks should be solid.
I honestly think that Burke was prepared for this. I'm sure he got a whiff of what Penner wanted for his contract and that's why he went and got Bertuzzi. It can be said that Burke is "to blame" for this, but he's a smart m-fer. I honestly think that he tried to sign Penner, but if Penner was asking for a cent more than Burke was willing to give up for him, then Burke was ready for this eventuality and is pleased as punch to see those three draft picks coming his way.
Honestly, this can be looked at as a clever way for Burke to pick up three extra picks in a deep draft.
This is probably a good thing for both teams as it has been mentioned many times in the comments for the other articles, Edmonton has not drafted particularly well in the recent past.
I haven't seen too much talk here by Ducks fans at being upset for Penner signing the sheet, which is a good thing. It's part of the game, it happens, and the true revenge is just beating Edmonton, which I would expect Anaheim to do fairly regularly this season anyway. (No offense to the Oil, I'm just not wowed by their roster.)
I agree that Lowe's job revolves around this signing, and I think Penner does develop into a very solid player. Unfortunately for Kev, I don't think he'll be around to see it happen. These things take time and that's a luxury he can't afford. Barring instant success, I don't think he lasts to midseason.
Great point about Burke learning from this and talking contract with Getzlaf and Perry now. The impending potential retirement of Niedermayer should make the money part of it a no-brainer. Bottom line is, Edmonton finally got what they wanted, which was a very good player actually agreeing to head north. Is that enough to save what looks to be a very long year? I've got my answer.
Wait a second here... I thought that if Vanek had gone to the Oil, then they would have owed something like 3 first round picks to the Sabres. Is there a difference in compensation depending on the player or am I wrong?
Per my posts in the previous thread on this subject, I agree with daniq. I also agree that Lowe won't be able to survive the fallout if Penner doesn't play like Bertuzzi pre-Steve Moore. Big gamble, and like Spector said, the only guarantee here is Penner's $4.3 mill per year.
Boltsfan, yes there is a difference: the higher the annual salary in the offer sheet, the more compensation the signing team pays. I don't know the exact breakdown over all the salary levels, but the difference here is that the 3 picks are Edmonton's first, second and third round picks in next year's draft (based on signing Penner at $4.3 mill per year), not its first round picks in each of the next 3 drafts which it would have forfeited to Buffalo (based on Vanek's $7 mill per year).
What happened, has happened. Everyone agrees the offer is a bit outrageous. Spec, I agree with you that Burke is partially to blame as he should have been more aggressive in attempting to get Penner under contract. And, personally, I see Penner as a kid who's vector is on the rise where as Big Bert's vector is on the decline. I think that signing Bertuzzi was a massive mistake and Burke should have handled his own kitchen first.
However, I do blame Lowe. Lowe has not been able to draft well. Lowe hasn't made a brilliant trade. Lowe has not been able to lure big free agents to Edmonton. On the contrary, he seems to chase players away from Alberta. Edmonton is a great hockey town and the fans deserve better.
I hear much chatter about this being allowed by the CBA and therefore Lowe is not to blame. Regardless on whether it is allowable, I simply don't find it dignified. Lowe is scrambling for players. This tactic is merely a reflection of his inability to improve his club like the rest of the league: through the draft, deft trading or key UFA signings. I do hope that he is quick to resign Stoll. If I were Burke or Reiger, I'd publicly tell Stoll to hold off signing anything prior to 7/15/08. It just might be worth his while.
Last edited by HermanZeGerman on August 2nd at 6:19 PM.
Penner isn't worth 4.3 millon a year. Lowe should have gone for Parise he signed for 4 years only worth 12.5 millon. Much Cheaper and a Heck of a lot better.
Beilmann---yea nice idea.....but Parise wasn't going anyplace. He and Paul Martin both turned down arbitration...even if offer sheet was tendered, do you think Lou lets this guy go?? No way....and Lou has the dough right now...after losing Gomez and Rafalski...he absolutly would have matched anything he was able. I think Lowe is an #### personally. But that's just me.
Well I'm happy to see this go down. Now the question is what's going to happen next?
We have 11 defensemen and 17 forwards. A few of these guys will probably be sent down to the AHL team for more development, but it would be prudent for Lowe to swing a deal which would send off a few of our promising underachievers to a team looking to trade a first line forward for some depth and possibly to cut down on spending.
Jon: and if he had to match Edmonton's offer you can bet your bottom dollar that he'd have Edmonton's number in the future. I think that Lou is the best GM out there. Look at their record since he's been there and look at how whenever he finds himself in a bind, he comes through with an idea which has New Jersey way up there in the standings at the end of the year.
When you think about it is 4.3 a crapload of money in this day and age? It's less than 10% of the cap. Heh if he turns out to be a disspapointment we can always play him to the point where he gets injured and ####ed up to the point where we can put him on the long term IR list and save cap space.
Lou's savvy is exactly what both Burke and Lowe are missing. It's evident in how they've conducted their offseasons. How do you manage to lose both Gomez AND Rafalski and still not have fans calling for your head? You draft well, make good trades, play your cap number to the hilt, and take care of your own kitchen. He's extremely creative (witness the Malakhov deal last season), extremely relentless, and doesn't hesitate to take the hit for his team without crying to the league about every little thing. I give him full credit. I definitely see Edmonton tweaking something here or there before the season starts, but it won't be anything enough to elevate their final placement in the standings in my view.
I don't know if I agree that Lowe is done making drastic changes. He now has a stable of defensemen and forwards that have great trade value if the right deal came along. All in all Penner scored more goals last year than anyone in Edmonton and I really believe that he will benefit from this change.
As I said in the previous thread, this is a win/win for both teams. Lowe gets scoring help and Burke gets both cap space and 3 extra picks in a very deep draft. Who comes out ahead has yet to be seen but I suspect that Burke will draft well and make this look VERY lopsided in a few years.
IT's great for the ducks because they have other younger guys who're going to go up in worth quickly. He's taking draft picks now so that he doesn't have to worry about penner's contract being too much for him to resign other guys and at the same time he gets 3 high draft picks to allow new blood to come in in a few years.
I guess I was wrong about Burke matching any offer for Penner. Then again he might of said that just to make other GMs not even try to give an offer sheet to him. Or, he didn't realize how desperate Lowe was, and didn't expect the offer to be so high.
this was a better move for Lowe than signing Souray. Still going to haunt him not giving Smyth what he wanted.
If they could flip Souray for say Marleau now...
I think it is obvious that the pending retirement of Neidermayer and Selanne is what tied Burke's hands here. As a result he had to go out and spend the dollars for Schneider and Bertuzzi. Most people would agree 2 years at $4M each for Big Bert is a bad decision. Too much money for someone who's best season was a number of years ago.
That said, there is a huge risk taken by Lowe here. In 2 or 3 years it may look like a great deal by Lowe or it may be a total bust if Penner doesn't pan out or if the 3 draft picks turn out in Burke's favour. Lowe desperately needed to plug a hole short term in his roster. If Penner pans out, then it will be a good deal. The alternative of getting a top line player now was going to cost lost draft picks and top prospects.
As pointed out by others, losing Smyth may turn out to be more costly than the extra $500K a season as this is one move that was forced by Smyth's departure.
I hope nobody was being serious about trading Souray anyway. Certainly not for Marleau. I just assumed it was facetious. I think Penner is young enough that it would take a lot for this deal to look really bad from that angle. He is overpaid, but who knows what the going rate will be for a young player with his production a couple more years down the road? The rising salaries should ensure it's eventually a bargain, even if he doesn't set the world on fire. I think the bigger problem is with Lowe cashing in his draft chips, his team isn't good enough and he'll need to make some serious deals with his current roster to get it to the point where he doesn't get fired. That's far more important than just the Penner deal.
"We're going to take the three picks, and given Kevin's recent (managerial) performance, we expect them to be excellent picks."
— Brian Burke
You have to believe Burkey is going to have Lows number some time soon.
I hate the fact there is all this "down the road 4.3 might be a steal for Penner" BS....this is now, the oilers suck now, they need help now!!! Penner will help, but not drasticly. Souray's minus will even out Penners plus.
Well I can garentee one thing. Oilers fans will use him as a scapegoat when they finish 14th in the west.
The reason why Lowe is Not to bright in doing this is simple.
He knows deep down that this team does not play a lick of D and has very margnal scoring up front. Also DRoll is not exactly Luongo or Broduer.
The picks they are giving up will bite them in the Butt.
THe Oilers will miss the Playoffs. Baring any trades this will give the Ducks a top 14 pick a top 30 pick and a pick early in the second round
What if the Oilers are so bad and say the win the Lottery and the Ducks get the first overall pick? Giving them a Franchise player the Oilers have not had sence Mess left for New York.
For those Oilers fans that will say Ryan Smyth was the franchise player. Your dead wrong. Franchise players score more the 65 points in a season.
The poor guy is going to be in such a pressuer cooker in Edmonton it would not shock me one bit to see him request a trade long before the contract is up.
If he does not put up 35 goals next season Oiler fan will be wanting someone's head on a platter.
yes, they got him.This is going to be a good year for the oilers,they will not make the playoffs this year but in two years from now they will be stanley cup contender.To spector what the #### are you comparing this to alexi yashin.Then you bash nedveed,you are just an sad #### that is mad that your Montreal Canadians did nothing.
how am i being a jerk, this is the internet bud most people are jerks.I was just mad the way people were treating the oilers, this was part of the cba.boo hoo just beware dion pheneauf might be next in next year off season.
What did anything Spector said in his post have to do with Yashin? Or Nedved? And how would bashing either of them have anything to do with the Oilers? I don't really care if the theory "most people on the internet are jerks" is accurate or not, but it would help if those jerks had arguments that made some kind of sense.
Oh shoot,sorry lyle i am tired so i made a mistake when writing that comment.Those things you said were part of a different article.my sincere apologys.
the oilers still got anaheim's picks a pick from anaheim for the next 2 years from the pronger trade, so they really gave up pronger and a 1st round pick for lupul (now pitkanen), penner, and smid..... doesn't sound to bad to me
I don't understand why Burke is so upset, especially after winning Lord Stanleys. Penner was fair game, for any team, Burke should have rushed to sign him earlier. Its just utter mismanagement on his part, and if he liked Penner so much he should have matched the offer in good faith. Burke should also be working his hardest to make sure Niedermeyer and Selanne return. I always thought Burke was an excellent GM, but after this? Maybe it was all the local hysteria and fan commotion in southern California that was caused by winning the cup that distracted him and clouded his mind. I'm not talking about the Stanley cup either. The Wilson cup, in which North Hollywood came from behind to beat heavily favored Brentwood. Thus winning the Wilson cup, Southern Califonias most important croquet trohpy.
Lowe rolled the dice on this one. Yeah Penner may have another good year. Playing on the top line may get him more ice time but going against teams number one defense may cut down is goal totals.
Burke did what I expected and took the picks. As noted Burke did seem to overpay for Bertuzzi by about 2 million a year that said look what Kariya got so that may be the going rate for aging has beens. If Bertuzzi's back holds out and he does well Burke will proven himself once again as the smartest guy in the room. It will make for an interesting season.
You think the Oilers are 2 years away from being a cotender for the Stanly Cup
ARE YOU HIGH?
You have no true #1 d-man
No true top line players either on the roster or in the system
and a very rapidly aging goaltender with no replacement in the wings
The team will move from Edmonton Long before they win another cup
Last edited by True_kings_fan on August 3rd at 8:39 AM.
You may be right, I'm not sure what Kevin Lowe is really thinking anymore. Trade away guys for prospects last year and now he is signing decent players, but not a player that will put us over the top. Edmonton shoulda just rebuilt and waited two years to start adding the pieces. Unless Edmonton gets a true number one center and LW this team won't go anywhere. I still wonder if this team even has a shot at the playoffs.
Burke shouldn't complain. Just because it was a "friend" He didn't seem to mind when his "friend" Kevin Lowe had to trade Pronger and Burke bent him over. As far a buggering up the sallary system. People there still is a cap! If a team wants to pay Brad May $10, 000 000 dollars a year that is their right. ( now the rest of the team would likely get the minimum and neve win, but oh well). Everyone is playing with the same numbers and as long as the cap doesn't increase by another $10,000 in the next two years then everyone ison the same playing field, and how they want to spend it is up to them.
P.S.
Brian, you better lock up your other kids... Kevin may not be done with you yet. It is only a year away?!
I for one am not a jerk and Spector does an awesome job keeping us informed on his blog... Take note that I said HIS blog...
There are also quite a few people that chime in on Spetors threads with alot of knowledge about the game of hockey and the behind scenes working of the league, MPH, OFF, TKF, MATT, RYAN7878, WILDGOPHER, PUCKBUBBA, THADD, and so on (read the archives if you need more names)... I like to think I also know a little something about the game; so in the future remember that yes we get wound up because we are passionate about the game and our teams, and you are entitled to your thoughts but think before you ink...
That statement was worthy of a Pronger-esk playoff elbow shot...
I hope all your friends and family are safe from the bridge collapse up in Mineeapolis... Our prayers from St. Louis to all involved...
Puckbubba,
Do not even compare what Kariya got to Bertuzzi...
All Bertuzzi did was replace ummm lets say Willy Plett on the GOOONNNN squad, not alot of talent skates a little awkward but always there when the gloves are dropped...
Kariya on the other hand points, points, points...
Well said. And nice point about Gopher, I hadn't personally thought of that but I agree..good luck and good wishes to him and his as well as anyone else with family in that area. I for one am getting annoyed with the constant "it's the salary cap, you can pay whatever you want" diatribe. We all know that, honestly. I have personally never seen posted "How come this GM can pay this player blah blah blah." Just because you CAN doesn't mean you should. I can head to the bar today instead of going to work..well, actually, bad example..maybe I should. Point is, it's well within anyone's purview here to call a GM on the carpet when they think their idea of what to pay is out of whack. That's one of the things that makes this discussion board great. Analyzing the performances of current general managers invariably includes commentary on their spending habits. Yeah, it's part of the rules..doesn't mean you don't get lauded for the good and slammed for the bad.
Tired? Candlemass, from the way you were slurring your typing you had obviously drunk all the sacramental wine (and then some)...
My final post on this topic. I still think Burke is the best GM in the league, but he obviously didn't script this out as much as I suggested in prior posts (but it is a fun theory and I ran with it a bit). Still, he knows Penner isn't worth a penny more than $2.5M, and he also knows that there are worse things than taking back a bunch of draft picks when one player signs an offer sheet. He got lucky when it was a team with issues like the Oilers that signed Penner and that they signed him for as much as they did. So there's little doubt that these will be great picks for him; I think they'll easily be in the top 10 and the first rounder could even be a lottery pick. If that happens and Penner doesn't score at least 35 goals as a plus player, which I doubt he'll do, then Lowe won't be at Edmonton's draft table to watch Burke walk to the podium with his draft pick. That (plus a playoff round or two) will be how Burke gets his revenge.
Burke had this all thought out... What GM would not love to have his problem of what to do...
Niedermeyer, Selanne, 3 draft picks from his buddy for Penner,
Oh my what should I worry about...
I will just tell the press that I am upset with Lowe and how he stole away one of my best talents to throw eveybody off...
I won't tell the press that I called Lowe told him to make an absurd offer to Penner so no other team will #### him up and because I want the three draft picks from him...
Together we make the hockey news he will look like the #### for making the offer and I will win another cup, lets go for a beer...
Absolutely Burke had this thought out. I'm sure he went as high as 2 or 2.5 a season for Penner and when Penner rejected that, he left him open for an offer sheet on purpose. Why would Burke overpay so much for potential? He doesn't need to pay for potential. He has a great team already. Penner gets offer sheeted and all of the sudden Burke's looking at $2.5 million in the teams pockets and 3 draft picks in a great draft. And it seems that everyone is predicting that the first rounder might possibly be a Top 10. If they get a top ten, then that's 2 picks in the top 40 of a deep draft! Hell yeah! It's almost a genius move itself, to entice an offer sheet for Penner in order to get prime picks. Especially in this coming draft.
I always enjoy this blog when we get all of these great opinions. Well here is my uneducated perspective from somewhere near San Jose.
I think Brian Burke is a master at manipulating the situation. I think this was a well played out way for him to not commit to a deal he felt was over valued. What has made the Ducks (and other Western Conference Teams) strong is their ability to draft well and develop players. I am sure Anaheim probabaly has a few aces we don't know much about in their development system, who may just turn into stud players. Now I am sure there are a few of you who know who is the next great ones, but were guys like Penner on the radar? I don't think so. And just like what Doug Wilson did in trading an excellent goalie like Toskala, Anaheim is restocking their system with picks. Don't be surprised if we see them use those to build into a stronger younger unit.
As for Kevin Lowe, what he really lacks is a strategic plan. I am not sure I understand the direction of this team. Are they building a core of players to build around? Are they content with being a low seed and fighting their way through the playoffs? I just don't see it. The best teams are going to be those who have a GMM with a solid play and the guts to stick with it. Sure, many of my Shark fans friends and I wonder why we didn't make the big splash this year, yet we also know Doug Wilson has a plan and a strategy and he is sticking to it. Burke is also one who has a plan to stay competitive for a long time. They will be around. Will Lowe be around if he can't direct the team i
He also new that Lowe so desperate to make a move he threw his own buddy under the bus...
Absolutely ruthless by Burke, I will also say it was genius... I am telling you right now that the oiler fans may like this move by Lowe now but come draft time they will be kicking themselves, losing 3 draft picks to the Stanley Cup champs in the off season for an unproven player would not sit well with me as a fan...
I'm Lyle Richardson, also known as Spector, Foxsports.com 's "Prince of Pucks".,which is based on the fact I live in Prince Edward Island, Canada and I couldn't think of a better byline. I've been an NHL hockey commentator since 1998 on my website, Spector's Hockey, and I'm a contributing writer for Foxsports.com , The Hockey News and Eishockey News. I'm also a regular on The Faceoff Hockey Show and a frequent guest on "The Late Crew" on The Team 1200 Ottawa.
