The Ottawa Senators and Anaheim Ducks will meet to determine who takes up the Stanley Cup for 2007. So without more ado, here’s my breakdown and prediction.
Coaching: It’s the first time coaching in the Finals for Anaheim’s Randy Carlyle and Ottawa’s Bryan Murray so there’s no experience advantage here. They’ve both done a tremendous job getting their teams this far, but throughout this year’s playoffs the Senators appeared to play a more disciplined game than the Ducks. That being said, Murray hasn’t had to deal with his team facing adversity this spring, whereas Carlyle had to rally his troops against a surprisingly strong Detroit Red Wings team in the Conference Finals. ADVANTAGE: None.
Goaltending: Ray Emery has been a steadying presence between the pipes for the Senators, something they’ve lacked over the past ten years in the playoffs. The Ducks, however, have J.S. Giguere, winner of the 2003 Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP, who stole two games for his club against the Red Wings in the Conference Finals. Giguere does struggle with rebounds off the end board, has an average glove hand and can be beaten by side-to-side passing. Emery tends to come out too far to cut down angles, leaving him susceptible to being beaten by dekes or side-to-side passing. Ultimately, Giguere’s experience gives him the edge. ADVANTAGE: DUCKS.
Defense: At first glance the nod would go to the Ducks, who have two previous Norris winners (and contenders for the award this year) in Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer patrolling their blueline, as well as the under-rated Francois Beauchemin and veteran Sean O’Donnell. However, the Senators blueline corps is one of the deepest in the NHL (Redden, Phillips, Corvo, Volchenkov, Meszaros and Preissing), capable of strong two-way play. The Ducks tend to over-rely on their “big three” of Pronger, Niedermayer and Beauchemin, whilst the Sens have effectively spread their ice-time fairly evenly for most of their d-men. Another factor of note was how the Ducks defence struggled against the speed of the Red Wings in the Conference Finals, something the Senators, no slouches in the speed department themselves, will no doubt exploit. The Senators blueline corps can not only skate but are capable of effectively laying on the body, especially Anton "A-Train" Volchenkov and Chris Phillips. ADVANTAGE: SENATORS.
Forwards: Both clubs possess depth in scoring talent and checking prowess. Offensively the focus will be on the Ducks “kid line” of Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry and Dustin Penner, as well as veteran Teemu Selanne, and the Senators top line of Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley. Both sides also have depth in second line scoring, which have proven important factors for both clubs reaching the Finals. Expect the Ducks to put their focus on shutting down the Alfredsson line, no easy task but then again, that line hasn’t faced a hard-hitting team like the Ducks yet. The series ultimately could come down to that. If the Ducks fail to shut that line down, they could be in trouble, but if they can keep them off the board, they’ll have a great chance to win this. ADVANTAGE: NONE.
Other factors: Andrew Savoie, a regular poster to my “Fans Speak Out” message board, recently made a terrific post on how the two clubs match up in significant factors such as special teams, faceoffs, and other categories, so I’m posting it here verbatim:
“On face-offs, the Ottawa Senators have a slight edge, winning 495 out of 941, for a percentage of 52.6%, the Ducks, also won 495, but faced 991 face-offs, for 49.9%.
In the scoring and trailing first category, both almost have identical records. Ottawa has not lost a game when scoring first, and has a 4-3 record when trailing. The Ducks are 8-1 when scoring the first goal, and the same record as Ottawa when trailing.
5 vs 5, Ottawa has scored 29 of them and allowed 22, for a +7. Anaheim has scored 24 and allowed 20, for a +4. A slight advantage for Ottawa.
The powerplay, Ottawa overall is at 20%, with a whopping 31.2% on the road. Anaheim is at 15.3%, 17% at home. Advantage Ottawa.
The penalty killing, Ottawa is at 88.6% overall, at 92.5% on the road. Anaheim is at 86.8% and 90.9% at home. Again a slight advantage to Ottawa.”
Looking at these factors, Ottawa had the slight edge over the Ducks. ADVANTAGE: SENATORS.
If Giguere can keep playing at a high level, if his teammates can avoid the penalty box and if they can shut down the Sens top line, they’ll be in good shape. The Ducks will play them hard, but their propensity to be drawn into penalties by a fast-skating team (as demonstrated in the Conference Finals against the Wings)could prove costly against the Senators. The Wings also took away Anaheim’s physical advantage and I expect the Sens will try to do the same. The Senators are a very fast club like the Wings, and they’ll use that speed to their advantage against the Ducks “big three” defense. The Senators also play a strong, responsible defensive game and are extremely aggressive on the PK, something the Ducks haven’t experienced in this year’s playoffs.
I'm with you on this one. I seen the Sens taking it all, Hell if the Sens can't score on them, they'll just pummel the hell out of them. My only fear for the senators is Ray Emery, at times he does seem a bit careless, but none the less a decent goal tender. It will be a good match up.
Ah come on Spector, let's just say Sens in 5. I can't see the Ducks keeping their temper in check because I know that they won't be able to shut down the Senators' top line and that'll lead to a lot of anger, which will lead to a lot of penalties.
Am I the only person who doesn't want to laugh his #### off when he sees Marchant on the Ducks' first line? I'm an Oiler fan. I know all about Marchant. Great penalty killer, skates faster than the wind, but he can't shoot to save his life.
HiSpector,
It's nice to see a Canadian team in the finals for the third year in a row. Even though it doesn't get US tv ratings it Canada is where the passion is and what I love most about hockey. Good informative post as always. Best wishes.fenfan
One thing to keep in mind when picking the Sens to win is the bulk of their scoring comes from one line. That line will be getting a taste of the Pahlsson - Niedermayer - Moen line from the Ducks that shut down Gaborik & co., the Sedin twins and 5 on 5 handled Datsyuk & co. The Ducks can get scoring from three lines. Another thing to think about is what kind of goaltending each team has faced getting to this point. The Sens faced an inexperienced Fleury, a tired Brodeur and a defensless Miller where as the Ducks faced an inexperienced Backstrom, an outstanding Luongo and a healthy Hasek. It is no wonder how the Sens have made their trip to the finals look easier. Emery tends to also leave juicy rebounds which his defense have helped him clear away, but they have yet to face a team with big strong forwards like the Ducks capable of breaking through to get at those rebounds. I expect this series to be close and if the Sens are able to pull it off, Emery will have to outplay Giguere. No easy task.
My heart is with the Sens but I think it will be Anaheim in 6 or 7. I am 6 for 6 in the last two rounds and have only missed 2 the entire playoffs. 1 of those 2 was picking Minnesota over Anaheim. Since then I have been watching the Ducks closely and think they are as complete a package as any. I thought they were shallow on D after the Big 3 but have been impressed with O'Donnell and think the 5-6 guys are soild enough. And as much as I hate him, Pronger can win series virtually on his own. While I don't underestimate the cool Emery, I think Giguere is emerging as an elite goalie. Ducks checking line is the best going and while they won't stop the Heatley line everytime, they will net a few goals themselves. Watch for Pahlsson to shine.
What about Selanne? - claims the best moment of his hockey career was winning the bronze medal at the Nagano Olympics - c'mon gimme a break - this guy is going to be hungry.
What was that stat about Stanley Cups and North American captains?
Like most playoff series this comes down to goaltending and, in the new NHL, the ability to get shots through on goal. If the Sens are able to block the amount of shots that they did against the Sabres, the Sens win in 6. If they don't it comes down to Emery vs. Giguere and Emery can not control rebounds so Ducks win in 6.
Because I think the Ducks will be just as physical as the Sens I think the Ducks limit the amount of shots the Sens will block thus making it a goaltending match-up. I predict that the Ducks win their first Stanley Cup and I stay bitter for another year.
LGB picks The Ducks because he could not root for the Sabres big rivals.
I picked a Ducks Sens series back when the post season started and said Ducks in six.
As much as I would love for the Quackers to win a cup to give my Kings a SLAP in the face.
I still fall back on 1 key thing. Not a single west coast based team has ever won the cup.
But also 17 out of the last 20 team to win the cup had home ice advantage.
After looking at all that.
I feel Spector is underrating the Ducks blue line and over rating the Sens.
The Sens went up aginst 2 of the worst teams at killing penaltys in the post season. New Jersey being the one team that was good.
The Sens have not faced one elite DMAn this post season. Now they go aginst 2. Every team the Sens have played were smaller teams. All 3 teams the Sens paced were not gritty at all.
After all that is said. Home Ice will hold true and Ducks will win it in 6 games
TKF: Being Canadian isn't affecting my prediction. Prior to the Ducks-Wings series I fully expected the Ducks to go all the way, regardless of who they met in the East because I was very impressed with their play heading into that series. I even said as much in a recent interview a few weeks ago.
However, the Wings exposed a couple of chinks in the Ducks armour. Their speed gave the Ducks defence fits and drew penalties, and the Ducks struggled in that series against the Wings PP. S. Niedermayer is also nursing a foot injury (although the extra time off could help him). Giggy is very strong straight on but I fully expect the Sens to try to exploit those weaknesses I noted.
Here's something else I found troubling about the Ducks, that being they tend to play a short bench, particularly with their blueline, whereas the Sens roll four forward lines and three blueline pairings rather evenly. That could be a major factor if this series goes six or seven games.
Again, not underestimating the Ducks, just expressing my concerns. The last time I expressed concerns about weaknesses of two teams, they were beaten in the Conference finals. We'll see if I'm as accurate this time around. Cheers.
ANAHEIM, Calif. – (May 25, 2007) – Anaheim Mayor Curt Pringle announced a friendly wager with Ottawa Mayor Larry O’Brien as the Ottawa Senators and Anaheim Ducks face-off Monday in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals.
When Anaheim wins the 2007 Stanley Cup, Mayor O’Brien has agreed to display four flags representing the Ducks, the City of Anaheim, the State of California and United States of America for one day. He and the Ottawa City Council will wear Ducks jerseys at a Council meeting, along with Mickey Mouse “Pirates of the Caribbean"-themed ears. Mayor O’Brien also will display an Anaheim 150 crate paperweight until the start of the 2007-08 NHL season, and the City of Ottawa will display a picture of Mayor O'Brien and the Ottawa City Council in their Ducks jerseys along with a message of congratulations on the city website.
In the unlikely event that Ottawa wins the NHL championship, Anaheim will display the flags of the Senators, the City of Ottawa, the Province of Ontario and the Canadian national flag. Mayor Pringle will wear a Senators jersey at an upcoming City Council meeting along with a Canadian Mounties hat. Jerseys will also be provided to the entire Anaheim City Council. In addition, a Rideau Canal (175th anniversary) paperweight or memento will be displayed in the Mayor's office, and Anaheim will place a picture of Mayor Pringle and the City Council in Senators jerseys with a message of congratulations on www.anaheim.net.
TKF-As I stated in my preview blog of the ECF, the Sabres and Senators are barely rivals.
I'm actually rooting for the Sens here, I just think the Ducks can match the Sens physically where the Sabres couldn't and that makes it come down to goaltending. So I had to choose between Emery and Giguere and 99,999 times out of 100,000 I would take Giguere and this time is no different.
I love it. I guess the Sens are underdogs (from the way these posters are calling it). All the pressure will be on Anaheim to deliver the good because it's Anaheim to lose and Ottawa to win. May the best team win.
P.S. I won't get into detail of why I think everybody's theory about Ottawa is wrong but I will end my post with this...Go Sens Go.
Sensfan-I hope I'm wrong, I really want the Sens to win it.
On a sidenote, all you puckheads out there check out my blog and you will see I'm doing this internet-radio sports talk show. I need my fellow NHLers to give their opinions about the Finals. Hope to see some of you there!
Thanks for the support LGB. I'm just hoping that this is a good series. Fair and clean. A series that will have the fans on the edge of their seats. I know the city of Ottawa is crazy and the buzz is unlike anything I've experience before. Let the party begin (win or lose)!!!!
I think the interesting thing here is there is no clear favourite. The Sens have been pretty awesome all playoffs - I can't tell if their opposition was not as good as cracked up to be or if Ottawa wouldn't let them be as good as cracked up to be. I confess I have not seen all of their games.
On the other side of the ledger ... throughout the
course of the season the west has been sgronger than the east. Anaheim also made some three teams with over a 100 points each look pretty incompetant. In particular they have been very ... very effective in shutting down the top lines of opposition. the ASH line is looking like the top line in hockey at the moment ... but going into the playoffs it was Gaborik, Demitra, Rolston and Anaheim made pretty short work of them.
In the end I think that the Sens will win a couple at home by getting the top line away from the Pahlsson-Niedermayer-Moen checking line. But in
Anaheim they will be dogged pretty constantly. If they don't score Ottawa will not win. I also think JS Giguerre can steal one game in Ottawa ... I don't think Emery can.
So ... I am choosing Anaheim in six.
(incidentally ... i went 5 for 8 in the first round but haven't missed a predition since - making me 11 for 14)
I read your article about the lower TV viewership this year.
True, Leaf fans not watching is a part of it. But there really is no story line this year. Calgary and Edmonton were suprising. They have history. It was a sniff of glory again for those fans. Non-fans watched because everyone likes a cinderella team.
Who likes Ottawa besides people that live in Ottawa? No one? Who likes the Ducks besides Emilio Estevez? No one?
That's why the viewership is so low.
No real history. No controversy. No rivalry.
The media is making a big deal about Ottawa not having been in Pacific time this year and having to adjust!!! Is that really the best pre-series story?
The build up to this series reminds me of talking to old people about the weather.
I'm Lyle Richardson, also known as Spector, Foxsports.com 's "Prince of Pucks".,which is based on the fact I live in Prince Edward Island, Canada and I couldn't think of a better byline. I've been an NHL hockey commentator since 1998 on my website, Spector's Hockey, and I'm a contributing writer for Foxsports.com , The Hockey News and Eishockey News. I'm also a regular on The Faceoff Hockey Show and a frequent guest on "The Late Crew" on The Team 1200 Ottawa.
