It’s conventional wisdom in sports (and warfare) that one should never underestimate an opponent.
The Ottawa Senators forgot that wisdom on Wednesday night.
The Buffalo Sabres, seemingly down and out, written off by most observers (including a fair number of their fans) after falling behind 3-0 in the series to the Senators, fought back in Game Four. After taking a 3-0 lead midway through the game, they hung on (thanks to Ryan Miller’s goaltending) to win the game 3-2 to stay alive in this series.
The Senators were guilty of a lazy start, resulting in Derek Roy’s goal only 9 second in. Still, they could’ve rallied back from that, and appeared on their way to doing so, but undisciplined penalties in the second led to Buffalo’s second goal by Maxim Afinogenov. Poor goaltending by Ray Emery resulted in Buffalo’s third, a sharp angle shot by Chris Drury.
To their credit, the Sabres fought back, potting two goals late in the second courtesy of their checking lines, and appeared to have regained the momentum.
But Ryan Miller regained his mojo, and try as they might, Ottawa simply couldn’t beat him despite numerous chances in the third period. When Dany Heatley took a dumb high-sticking penalty with less than three minutes left in the game, it effectively snuffed out Ottawa’s chances of tying the game and forcing overtime.
Now I don’t believe this means the Sabres are on their way to upsetting the Senators to win this series, although it would certainly make one heckuva story. The odd are against them, and while they’ll be playing Game Five in front of their frenzied faithful in Buffalo, the Sabres have to know the Senators will be far better prepared.
And for motivation for the Sens, the memory of that Game Four loss should provide plenty.
But the Sabres are still alive, giving hockey fans another chance to see another game between these two, one that could be one of the best in this year’s playoffs.
The penalty-killing still looks like a whole lot of Miller and little else. There was one sequence last night where Ottawa kept the puck inside the Sabres zone without a whistle for the entire 2-minute penalty! I've noticed that the same techniques the Sens are using to fluster Sabres' PPs (5-on-3s exempted) serve to fluster Ottawa's PP. The Sabres did it a few times last night but should be at it every time they're down a man. Quit allowing Corvo to tee off with his knuckle pucks...he is not the strongest of point men and should be heavily pressured as much as possible.
All that said, Ottawa has a nice little PP drought of their own right now. Good to see that.
For those of you out there that feel I just want to #### on the party, I really am happy this morning. Really. Some deflection by Roy, eh?
Sabreguy, thats exactly it. The Sabres on the penalty-kill have been sitting back instead of pressuring and the Sens are allowed to dictate whats going on.
And your assessment on Corvo couldn't be more spot on. He's getting a little too over-confident and he is going to pay for it in this series and the next when it comes.
But hey, still a loooooong way to go. All we can do is hope that they show up Saturday.
If you read the articles on the major websites throughout this country and Canada and you didn't watch the game, you would get the impression that Buffalo was outplayed and "struggled" through this game.
LGB full credit to Buffalo but the Sens did outplay the Sabres.
If not for Miller it might have been 6-3 Sens. Don't forget the two cross bars in the first and at least five great saves by Miller in the last two periods.
I would have felt better if the Sabres had won playing better,
but baby steps as they say. I have no vested interest in the series, I just want to see a good hard fought series.
They had two crossbars, we had one. As for the goaltending....We have the better goaltender so we are going to count on Miller. If Sens don't drop down and block shots, they don't win this series.
Its the second game in a row that Miller has shut this team down. All three goals hes given up the past two games are the result of fluky deflections.
What about Game two when Lydman hit the post? Or when they took away Vanek's goal when Pominville scored in the same way against the Isles and it counted?
It was just a matter of time before the bounces went both ways. If Sabres play like they did last night in Game 5, you'd be hard-pressed to bet against them.
Last edited by LetsGoBuffalo on May 17th at 9:03 AM.
I'd say the Sabres played well enough to win. That's about as far as I'll take it, though.
It might be asking too much, but I am still waiting for the Sabres to dominate a game. I want to see them impose their will on Ottawa instead of reacting to what they do. Ottawa has dictated the pace in every game except maybe the first half of game 2. Other than desire, I see no reason why the Sabres can't do it to them. None.
Sabreguy-Dominance, apparently, is in the eye of the beholder. What me and you see as a Sabres team outplaying the Sens, others see as the Sens dominating the Sabres.
I'm with you waiting for it to happen, just once in this playoffs. A whole game of dominance, not just 5 minutes like there was in game 2 for Buffalo.
Funny how Schaffer and McAmmond's goal yesterday were "deflected". From what I saw, McAmmond's goal was right under Miller's arm and Schaffer was the same thing. Both those goal were clean and un-delfected.
P.S. If Miller wasn't in goal, Buffalo wouldn't be in the 3rd round!
I won't disagree with you. The Ottawa goals last night went through some traffic, but I wouldn't call 'em flukes. Not like game 3's lone goal anyway.
And Miller has indeed been holding up the roof by himself for most of the series. He's had some tough breaks with Corvo's bouncer and that 1-0 loss. If the series ends badly for Buffalo, as it likely will, I wouldn't be shocked to see a "Miller Deserved Better" thread on this blog. If the miracle happens and they win it in 7, the team owes a great deal to him.
Boy, that would be rock-bottom for the Senators if that actually happened!
Spector. Just wanted to throw in the 'What happened to home-field advantage' in this play-offs. The home team in the conference finals are 2-5 so far. The Swedish Red Wings and Senators has been able to 'steal' one at home so far.
Trend or fluke?
Is it easier to play an easier game when you are playing away from home and your fans?
Will Ducks or Sabres be able to 'steal' a home game as well?
Yeah, I figure that if Detroit can punch a rough team like the Ducks in the mouth, why can't Buffalo out-skill the Senators?
Although they've looked like it, I really don't believe that Ottawa is a faster team than the Sabres. They have harder hitters, no question about that. But Buffalo should be able to match this team in skating, passing and shooting.
I've recently seen statistics that prove "home ice advantage" is a myth, that teams are just as likely to win on the road as they would at home, or lose at home as they would on the road. Hence the reason I've stopped citing "home ice advantage" as a potential factor in any of these series. There is no such thing as "home ice advantage".
These are the career leaders for playoff game-winning goals:
24 Wayne Gretzky, Edm., L.A., St.L., N.Y.R.
23 Brett Hull, St. Louis, Dallas, Detroit
19 Claude Lemieux, Mtl., N.J., Col.
18 Maurice Richard, Montreal
17 Mike Bossy, N.Y. Islanders
Drury would seem to have a ways to go. I've decided to give up even mentioning Chris Drury and Steve Yzerman in the same sentence anymore (did it again! DOH!). It brings me nothing but a hail of flack from certain circles.
But Spector, if you had to play a game 7 wouldn't you rather not be on the road? Do you happen to know what the home winning percentage is in that situation?
The only time home ice advantage is truly that is in a Game 7 scenario. According to Mike Brophy of the Hockey News, writing about the aftermath of Game 7 of the 2006 Stanley Cup finals:
"There were 118 rounds that went seven games since the NHL introduced the best-of-seven format in 1939 and the home team won 74 (63 per cent) of those series. In the final, 13 series advanced to the seventh game with the home side winning 11. Make that 14 and 12 now."
But in series that are settled in four to six games, home ice advantage is apparently no advantage at all.
If you can get to Game 7, the odds are on your side. The rest of the time, they're about even.
Sens fan- I said the goals were the result of fluky deflections. McAmmond's goal was the result of the puck falling right at his feet after a shot from the point was knocked down and he was no more than three feet from them and the second goal deflected of Soupy's stick right to Schaeffer who was in front of the net.
Again, fluky deflections. You can call it funny all you want, thats what they are. Just like Alfie's goal, bounced off the boards and hit Miller in his arm which deflected in front of the wide open net.
If you want, you can call Roy's the result of that as well.
LGB ... you really have the worst Sabres coloured glasses. Rarely have I seen such biased comments ... even in a blog like this.
I only watched the third period last night (west coast ... i was at work) and whether or not the Sabres or Sens dominated the first two periods - the Sens were pretty much camped out in the Sabres end for the third. It was like the ice was tilted and I thought the Sabres were most fortunate to skate away with a win.
As to the goals being lucky bounces and deflections ... that is how to score in the playoffs - especially with a hard working line like that. They work their tails off to generate any kind of chance. In the playoffs you make your own lucky bounces.
Does it really matter who outplayed who. Buffalo won. ALthough Ruff should give his head a shake. I never did see the pregame interviews, but the commentators wre saying that Ruff wouldn't be afraid of rolling 3 or 2 lines early in the game and stay that way. Don't wanna burn your guys out do you?
The Ottawa Senators, on the verge of eliminating all their previous playoff demons by advancing past the Eastern Conference Finals, could not afford to sit back and think they had four chances to win one game. It appears they did last night, came out flat and cautious, and they paid for it.
And if Ottawa loses the next game -- an afternoon tilt in Buffalo (does anyone know how Ottawa does in afternoon affairs?) -- the seeds of doubt planted last night could bloom full.
Buffalo has an opportunity now, with the pressure off and the expectations of Cup success pretty much abandoned. It will be interesting to see what they make of it.
Last edited by Matt_McCallum on May 17th at 1:05 PM.
Ottawa may rue the day that they didn't finish this thing last night. The law of averages would make you believe that Buffalo won't lose three straight playoff games at home, meaning they win game 5 and go into Ottawa for game 6.
This sets up the choke of the century scenario for the Sens. It makes game 6 a must win. To lose and allow the sabres to tie the series and then head back to buffalo would be the end.
Odds are against it happening, but I watched my Devils come back from 3 to 1 against Filth-adelphia back in 2000, so I will never again rule anything out. :)
They've been injured all season. They had 8 guys out at one point. They still were able to win despite all that. Going into this round was the first time the Sabres had a 100% of its players available to play. Not even going into this season did Buffalo have that.
Where you sit in the table is not the only adversity you can go through. In fact, it can be a direct corralation. If you don't overcome it, you will be low in the standings. If you can overcome it, you can be very high.
Last edited by LetsGoBuffalo on May 17th at 2:33 PM.
I'd say 8 regulars out at the same time qualifies as adversity. That's the cruel irony here. The team is playing it's worst hockey at a time when it is healthiest. They must have lost that soldier mentality sometime in March.
No two ways about it, though. The Sabres overcame some things this season that would have broken most teams. LGB's right, it's amazing they did remain in 1st place for so long.
Along those same lines: I'm no expert, but how in the hell is there no room for Drew Stafford on the bench? Seems to me that we could use more "finishers" like him on the ice.
That's what I find puzzling, too. Stafford I felt was a standout in limited action in the first two series, but he's seen no ice time in this one. I realize it's because Gaustad returned to action, but still, surely there's a spot for him now?
Well, Spector, it looks like Stafford will face the Sens after all. Zubrus apparently has a leg injury and won't be able to go on Saturday. That's bad news because he's one Sabre that's been pulling more than his fair share of weight all through these playoffs.
Then again, Nathan Paetsch might get the nod. I don't think he could hurt worse than Kalinin and might even help the PP get clicking again.
sabreguy: Zubrus's injury could be Stafford's good fortune. Not that he'd want to get back into the game that way. Still, this could be a lucky break for him. As I mentioned before, I'm very impressed with Stafford and I think he's got a bright future with the Sabres.
Spector- Do you see the Sabres re-signing Numinenn after this year? Or do you see them going after a bigger, punishing guy who can move the puck? I know they are at a premium but a guy can hope!
LGB: I wouldn't rule out a Numminen re-signing, although he might have to consider a pay cut to do it given the Sabres tightness under the cap for next season.
I'm Lyle Richardson, also known as Spector, Foxsports.com 's "Prince of Pucks".,which is based on the fact I live in Prince Edward Island, Canada and I couldn't think of a better byline. I've been an NHL hockey commentator since 1998 on my website, Spector's Hockey, and I'm a contributing writer for Foxsports.com , The Hockey News and Eishockey News. I'm also a regular on The Faceoff Hockey Show and a frequent guest on "The Late Crew" on The Team 1200 Ottawa.
