My preview of the Conference Finals has generated plenty of responses, both on this blog and in e-mails, particularly my concerns about the Sabres and Red Wings.
Rather than respond individually, I'll elaborate here.
First, the Sabres. If you'd come to me a month ago and asked who I'd pick in a Sabres-Senators matchup, I'd pick the Sabres without batting an eye, but what I've seen in their series against the Islanders and Rangers has me concerned about their chances in the ECF against the Sens.
Put simply, they're not playing like the dominant club they were expected to be in this year's playoffs.
Not taking anything away from the Islanders and Rangers, two underdogs that elevated their respective games against a dominant opponent, but I don't think the Sabres have played like a Cup contender thus far.
Far too often in both series (but especially against the Rangers), the Sabres appeared disinterested, their skating was sluggish, their speed and offensive depth advantage almost invisible.
Now I realize the ice at MSG was a factor in a couple of those game, but the Sabres struggled against the Rangers in two of their three games in Buffalo. I don't know if perhaps they underestimated their opponents, but the Sabres got lucky more than once, most notably in the dying seconds of Game Five when they faced falling behind 3-2 in the series heading back to New York before Chris Drury came to the rescue.
If the Sabres struggled against teams with average defensive depth that picked up their respective games, how will the Sabres do against a Senators team that's more physical and possesses more defensive depth? One that's charged up to both disprove their critics and extract revenge against the very team that eliminated them a year ago.
As for the Wings, I admit that I'm pleasantly surprised by their physical play, but my concern is how well they'll do against a strong club that'll actually play hard against them for a full sixty minutes.
Yes, the Wings more than held their own agains the Sharks, but let's face facts here, when the Sharks played their game, they dominated the Wings. The problem was, the Sharks didn't do it consistently. They'd dominate the first period, take an early lead and then would inexplicably change their style, sitting on the lead by going into a defensive shell. Against a talented team like the Red Wings, that's begging for trouble.
Then there's their blueline depth, which was whacked by injury, losing Kronwall and Schneider. I expect the Ducks to constantly pressure the Wings defence corps at every opportunity, forcing them to chase dump ins and pounding them along the boards and in front of Hasek. If the Ducks play that style consistently throughout the upcoming series, it'll take its toll on the Wings blueliners.
Now of course, all of this might not come to pass. The Sabres could burn the Sens with their speed and the Wings could pluck the Ducks. All I'm doing is airing concerns that I feel are legitimate, concerns which could have considerable bearing on the outcome of the respective series.
One observation that I don't see any anylysts making yet regarding the Wings-Ducks series:
The Ducks have had much easier opponents in Minnesota & Vancouver than Detroit has had in Calgary & San Jose. Detroit has been tested & has risen to the occasion in both series. Both Calgary and San Jose were predicted by many to knock off the Wings.
The Ducks have not really had to face any adversity or raise their game as of yet. It should be interesting to see how they respond to an opponent that has more depth than their previous two. I believe that Detroit should have a bit of an edge in the intangibles department, having faced such adversity & shown the mental-toughness & discipline it takes to win. In 3 of the games Detroit won against San Jose they had to come from behind. In two of those games they erased a 2 goal deficit. Yes, the sharks could have played better in those 2 games, but its not like they just layed down & died. Detroit had to work hard & play disciplined hockey to win those games. Detroit has faced two big, physical teams with quality goaltenders & still come out on top.
The Ducks haven't had to play REAL playoff hockey yet - Minnesota & Vancouver's anemic offense never really pushed the Ducks.
I've seen too many sports writers who don't want to give the Wings their due credit - instead saying that the Sharks let themselves get beat. In the hockey pool at work, I'm 6-0 in my Western Conference predictions. I'm picking Detroit in 6 for this one - Giguere is playing well, but not like he did in 2003.
disciple: I concur regarding the Canucks but the Wild didn't have an anemic offence. Unlike Vancouver, they could ice two scoring lines. The problem was the Ducks shut them down and made it seem as though they were the 2003 Wild.
You're right, the Wings will be a good test for the Ducks. But as I said in my post, if the Ducks play the game they're capable of playing for a full 60 minutes (and if necessary into OT) I believe they can beat the Wings, especially given the injuries to their blueline.
Guess we'll find out soon enough. Should be a good series.
Good post. While pretty much anything you say about Buffalo I will disagree with (since I'm a Sabres guy and think they will)- you do make good points and I agree with you.
To me, there are two main keys to Buffalo beating Ottawa.
1- They can't take lazy penalties like they did against NYR. The Sens power play is too potent.
2- The line of Roy/Max/Vanek has to be MUCH better. They havent looked like the dominant line they did much of the season.
One thing I don't see you mentioning much is goaltending. I dont care what he did to this point, the Sabres own Emery. He won't stand on his head like 'Quist did for the Rangers. Also, Buffalo's defense is EXTREMELY underated- and motivation won't be a factor for Buffalo.
Neil's running his mouth again. I guess he didn't learn from Avery the last series.
Is there anybody who DOESN'T feel that each of the final four teams is facing its most difficult series of the playoffs? That's why it's so hard to get a real confident feeling with any picks, no matter your loyalties.
Even though some say Ottawa had it easy with Pittsburgh (no way) and NJ (maybe so), you just KNOW they are capable of lighting up the scoreboard against anybody in the league. And although Buffalo has looked pretty sloppy so far (not you, Ryan Miller), you just KNOW what type of damage they are capable of when clicking.
Some may make the case that Detroit already vanquished their toughest foe in the Sharks, but I think most agree that the Ducks are tougher to play.
Last edited by sabreguy29 on May 10th at 11:17 AM.
I will not be surprised if either the Ducks or Sabres lose game 1 of their respective series, but when push comes to shove as each series progress I just can't see either team losing 4 games against the Wings or Sens, but this is the playoffs and they have made it this far. The Sabres-Sens series has the potential to be classic. Cross your fingers.
Good point, KingsFan. To further it, I'm thinking the first two games will be split, and whoever wins game 3 will take the series. I'm still thinking Buffalo/Anaheim.
At this time of the year, playoff series come down to depth and health. Losing Schneider will hurt the Red Wings, it just might not happen right away. 45-year-old Chris Chelios played awesome in the elimination game against the Sharks, playing 25+ minutes and getting 2 assists. However, would you want to put your money on a 45-year old to counteract the Neidermayer/Pronger duo? Hasek is over 40 as well, but he's still better than either of Anaheim's goalies. WCF could go the full 7, and I'm picking the Ducks.
As much as it pains me to say, Ray Emery is a better goalie right now than Ryan Miller, and his play in this year's playoffs has proven it. He has outdueled Brodeur, shut down Crosby, and now will (I'm struggling to get this out), Ottawa will beat Buffalo. Being an ardant U.S. hockey fan, I'll be rooting for Chris Drury, Drew Stafford and crew, but when your top scoring forwards are 6 foot and smaller, you're gonna get beat up against the likes of Redden, Neil and company.
Just under 2 hours to game time! I'm still feeling confident about our chances....Interesting note: The Senators have scored a goal in the first 90-100 seconds of the first game in both series. Last years game 1 between the Sabres and Senators, the Sabres scored with 25 seconds gone off the clock. Don't be surprised to see some early scoring.
The saying goes that a "series doesnt start until the home team loses".
I don't buy that this time. If Ottawa drops the first two in Buffalo, this series is over. They simply will not beat Buffalo 4 times in 6 games; 2 of them on the road.
Is it possible that the Sabres special teams woes are due to the departure of Scott Arniel as the PP/PK coach? Both units were pretty darn good last year...Arniel departs to coach the Moose...####! Lousy special teams.
I can see where Spec is coming from in doubting the Sabres they have looke dlike #### this year in the playoffs. I mean last year half the team was injured and they had a hell of a lot more spirit than they do now with a healthy team. I mean do they not want to win the Stanley? They better get thier act together...
It's only one game and I expect the Sabres to bounce back with a stronger effort, but Game One was a prime example of what I was talking about. They were particularly shaken by the Senators aggressive penalty killing, especially Ottawa's penchant for generating short-handed scoring chances. Only a team with speed can try that against the Sabres and do it successfully.
The Sabres were just as good if not better than the Senators in the first two periods. In the third period, they were completely and totally dominated. It was amazing because I've watched A LOT of Sabres hockey this year and that has never happened like that because most of it was played 5-on-5.
Hats off to the Sens and Bryan Murray. He was definitely the better coach in Game 1.
LGB: The Senators controlled most of the first, and the Sabres the latter part of the period once they go their first goal. The second I felt was even, although the Sabres were playing better than they had in the first. The third was as you noted, and the Sabres sagged noticeably after Saprykin's goal. What struck me about this game was the Senators poise. You could see what was going to unfold in the third, or at least that was my perception. The Sens never looked flustered and they didn't panic when the Sabres tied it.
Game Two should be a dandy. I'm expecting a much better effort from the Sabres in this one so it'll be interesting to see how the Senators handle it.
Uncharacteristic turnovers, sluggish penalty kill, not enough shots on goal. Buffalo will have to turn that around (I expect them to do so) or this will be over quick. They have to do a better job taking away Ottawa's big line threat and actually test Emery. I think Lindy will have his boys ready to play in game 2.
As for the game tonight, I'm interested to see how the Wings adjust to the speed of the Ducks more than their toughness. If they can't handle the speed, the Ducks won't need to flex their muscle much. Datsyuk and Zetterberg will have to play lights out if the Wings are going to make this a tough series.
Spector-The only thing Sabre fans have to hang their hats on is the fact that 3 out of the last 4 ECF's the game 1 winner has lost the series. If Sabres lose Game 2 this series is over. Besides winning Game 2, the Sabres need to win one in Ottawa.
I know that seems all quite obvious but when the chips are down and Buffalo is backed into a corner, they seem to respond and seem to respond with dominating performances.
Sensfan: No I don't believe Ruff would be fired if the Sabres were to fall short again in the Conference Finals.
LGB: I don't believe the Sabres are backed into a corner after only one game. Now if they fall behind 0-2, yes, they'll be in that situation. I'm expecting them to rally in Game Two. Like I said, I expect this to go the full seven.
I will say this: the Sabres not only have to get their PP working, they've got to counter the Sens ability to create scoring chances shorthanded. I realize that's citing the blatantly obvious.
If nothing else, last night's game validated Spector's concerns about the Sabres. And if the Red Wings struggle tonight, then maybe some posters won't come at him so strong. Personally, I haven't seen a "Wow! This team is for real" moment from the Sabres thus far in the playoffs like I did last year when they clocked the Flyers to end that series. By no means am I suggesting this series is over, but it will obviously come down to how the Sabres respond. A good time to have that "wow" moment would be game 2.
That's what has been bothering me for most of the regular season and ALL of the playoffs. The personnel on the PK and PP are basically the same as last year, when Buffalo was very effective with both.
So drastic a slippage doesn't make sense to me. I previously mentioned the departure of Arniel as a possible cause, but I don't see how that could disable them so quickly. Maybe the other teams have so greatly improved on their own special teams as to make Buffalo appeared to have regressed?
Even that doesn't explain the regular season, though.
As I think about last year a little more, they probably miss Jay McKee quite a bit on the PK. He blocked so many shots it was like having another goalie out there. Always liked Jay.
Flyers82:
"A good time to have that "wow" moment would be game 2."
Truer words were never spoken, my friend. My overriding feeling watching that game last night was that Buffalo was afraid of losing and played like it. Ottawa was pretty loose...much more than I thought they'd be, and that showed too.
Sabreguy-Against Ottawa are power-play was good but against Carolina it was what it is at now. Teams learned from Carolina that you have to pressure the blue-line and Buffalo is unyielding in that they won't take one of the three forwards that either stand in the net, behind the net or along the side board and move them to the middle of the ice as an outlet. Sabres can't do the quick, slick passing needed to beat that kind of trap because they don't have any outlets.
On the penalty kill, I think its that we miss a guy like Mike Grier more than Jay McKee. And it wasn't that our penalty kill was that bad last night. Miller let in a goal on their first shot on the pp, in my eyes a bad goal, and the last one was when it seemed like Buffalo was quitting. They killed off everyone in between that and they looked impressive in doing so.
LGB:
The Sens first power play goal was a screened one-timed slap-shot from the top of the faceoff circle that found the only gap on the short side. Miller was in position, it just found its way in. Not a bad goal. Your point was that the PK wasn't poor last night and I agree.
SensFanCC:
Lindy Ruff may well win coach of the year two years in a row. If the Sabres get bounced by a very good Ottawa team in the ECF it would be ridiculous to fire the coach. He's one of the big reasons the Sabres have grown into a legitimate contender. I do agree that the fact that the PP has been so bad all year with the personal the Sabres have does look bad for the coaching staff. As already mentioned it started in the ECF against Carolina. Maybe teams have caught on to the fact that the Sabres don't have good power-play pointmen. I have felt it has been a downfall of the PP for the last ten years. Jason Wooley has probably been the best pointman they've had in recent memory. Zhitnik would have been better if he ever hit the net. Where's Doug Bodger when you need him?
Ruff my win coach of the year again but how long will it take before management shake things up (if they lose in the ECF). He's been the head coahc since 97-98 and in those ten years he came a hair (or maybe I should say, toe) close of winning the cup and hasn't returned since eventhought he had the talent. I fear that Lindy Ruff might be suffering the same fate as Jacques Martin did in Ottawa. Awesome team, Awesome players but can't deliver the goods when it counts.
In my view Jaques Martin seemed to always have talented skaters and second-rate goaltending. Lindy, for most of his ten years, had B-list skaters and stellar netminding. Like a photo-negative of one another but yeah, I could see the parallel Sensfan.
Martin never had as complete a team as Ruff's current Sabres, though.
I think people are underestimating the Wings dpeth at D. Right now they have a young guy by the name Kyle Quincey who been prety solid on the back line paired with Chelly. Hes played since the San JOse series and hasnt been a liability out there or looked like a rookie. Also like Spector said its the entangibles that will or might help the wings. I think it will cause most of the time the playoffs are abotu will power. Also the Wings also always seem to do what people deny they can, liek in 97, 02 (saying they were too old for the playoff run), and now because of previous failures in the first round.
I thought the injuries to the Red Wings' blueline would be their downfall in this series. It just reminded me too much of what happened to the Sabres last year and the Flyers in '04. But, perhaps the depth is indeed there for the Wings to overcome the injuries. And it certainly doesn't hurt when Hasek plays as well as he did last night.
Well, the end appears to be near. Really the Sabres look like basically the same team that showed up for most of the regular season meetings with Ottawa. It's painful, but then not really a surprise. I didn't believe it possible, but the Senators actually make Buffalo look like a slow team. I'm struck by how often I'm seeing Ottawa players blowing past the Sabres to get to the puck...even when starting from way behind. There is plenty of open ice out there but when the puck arrives in it, there is no Sabres player there to get it. Teammates that typically play as if telepathically-connected are amazingly out of synch, like an essential cord has been cut. Ray Emery appears to be ripe for the picking, giving up gigantic rebounds. Nobody there to collect them. For those who still believe that Buffalo can win this, the only possible upside to the past two games is that it presents an opportunity for a memorable and historic championship run. A curse often requires extraordinary effort to be lifted, much like the Red Sox unimaginable victory over the Yankees back in '04. Things had never looked bleaker for the Beantown 9 after 3 games. We all know what happened. The sweetness of a victory directly related to how hard it was to attain it. Thanks to the two eggs laid in HSBC Arena, the Sabres are left with only this opportunity to achieve real greatness. Or they could just mail it in. If that last happens, I'll be pulling for the Ducks or Wings. I wouldn't want the put-upon Senators to leave Buffalo sitting alone in the "Tortured City Club". Misery loves company.
As with all pro sports, when it comes to play-off time the rules change.
In hockey that means more hitting up high, higher sticks, more smearing and mashing against the boards, a lot more after-the-whistle extracurricular hitting/fighting and more season ending injuries...but without as many penalties.
So you take teams like the Redwings who have long been known as a talent oriented, skillful, puck finesse and control team and throw them into the play-off meat grinder and what happens? Suddenly they become a team that can play physically. This is the intangible element that makes the Redwings standout as the Cup favorite they were never expected to be during the regular season. Chalk it up to experience, peaking at the right time, great leadership on and off ice, whatever, the Redwings are a team that will not go away without the maximum effort their fans have enjoyed all season and especially in the last two rounds of play-off hockey.
But the issue of physical play is only part of the picture. Fairness of play and good sportsmanship are also trademarks of Redwing hockey. The fact that they were one of the least penalized teams in the regular season but somehow have managed to attract much greater srutiny by the refs during the post-season than their opponents has fans scratching their heads, and rightfully so. It really makes me wonder what's going on.
I'm Lyle Richardson, also known as Spector, Foxsports.com 's "Prince of Pucks".,which is based on the fact I live in Prince Edward Island, Canada and I couldn't think of a better byline. I've been an NHL hockey commentator since 1998 on my website, Spector's Hockey, and I'm a contributing writer for Foxsports.com , The Hockey News and Eishockey News. I'm also a regular on The Faceoff Hockey Show and a frequent guest on "The Late Crew" on The Team 1200 Ottawa.
