How bad are things in Pittsburgh?  The annual chants of “there’s always next year” have been replaced with something even more discouraging.

2009 will be the year for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

But before we examine that conundrum, let’s look at the current state of a once proud franchise.

For the second straight year, the Bucs are in a race to avoid the cellar (unsuccessful so far)…instead of battling for a pennant.  In 2006, Pittsburgh needed a late-season surge in order to finish 1 game ahead of the Chicago Cubs in the standings.  The Cubs spent some money in the off-season and appear poised for a worst-to-first division title and playoff berth.

The Pirates are in the same place they were last year.  If not worse.

They did manage a few more wins than last season, but they still aren’t any closer to building a winner.  In fact, they are on the verge of breaking a record of consecutive losing seasons.  Yes, indeed…it has been 15 years.

I suppose it isn’t all bad news in Pittsburgh.  By the numbers, this is an improved team.  And there some glimmer of hope for the future.  But still a lot of questions.

For starters, the Pirates are putting more runs on the board.  They are currently in the middle of the pack in the NL in runs scored.  By most accounts, franchise outfielder Jason Bay has had a sub-par season.  But a few other unlikely teammates have picked up the slack.  Jose Bautista, Nate McClouth…hell, even Jack Wilson is getting into the swing of things.

But when it comes to pitching, the stats are ugly.  A team 4.91 ERA (as of September 25) puts them only ahead of 2 NL teams (Marlins, Reds).  Not good results for a franchise that spent first round draft picks on starting pitchers in each of the past 7 years.

Only 2 starters this year have earned a permanent spot in the rotation.  Ian Snell (3.76 ERA), Tom Gorzelanny (3.73 ERA), and Paul Maholm (5.02 ERA) are the only members of the staff to approach the 200 inning benchmark.

Unless they make some moves, there isn’t likely to be much pitching help on the way either.  A questionable mid-season trade allowed them to acquire an overpriced Matt Morris, who has been terrible since suiting up for the Bucs.  The small group of prospects – Bryan Bullington, John Van Benschoten, Sean Burnett – have been shaky and injury-prone in the minors.  Van Benschoten is the only potential starter with significant time on the senior circuit this year, and his 9.73 ERA in 10 starts doesn’t exactly instill confidence for his future.

Bad Decisions

In the last 15 years of losing, the Pirates have a horrendous history with personnel choices…especially when it comes to pitching.  Most recently, Oliver Perez was traded to the Mets in 2006 after struggling mightily with his control, mechanics, and velocity.  Apparently, the Pirates weren’t patient enough with the talented lefty…because he ended up starting a Game 7 for New York in ‘06, and isn’t too far away from Cy Young contention this year.  I’m guessing they would like to take a mulligan on that one.

On the Rise

Back to the hopes for 2009.  There is a reason that management and fans are looking beyond next year.

Andrew McCutchen – This outfielder of the future has all the makings of a franchise player.  This 20 year old is a 5-tool player with unlimited potential.  A sluggish start in AA-Altoona may delay his arrival a bit, but fans can’t wait to see him in Pittsburgh.  McCutchen was more than impressive this past spring, and could be called up as soon as next year.

Brian Bixler – If the Pirates unload Jack Wilson this off-season, it will be because of the emergence of Bixler.  This shortstop earned team MVP honors in AAA-Indianapolis this year, and could be ready for the MLB sooner rather than later.  His stats in Indy were solid - .274 BA, 5 HR, 23 doubles, 10 triples, and 28 stolen bases in 129 games.  His speed would be a huge plus for a team that has historically struggled to manufacture runs.

Nyjer Morgan – Here is another outfielder that could be an option in Pittsburgh.  Morgan isn’t as young as the other prospects (turned 27 in July), but his .300 plus average (in the minors) and speed would give management something to think about…especially with no true leadoff hitter in the system.

Steve Pearce – This natural first baseman has been tearing it up at every level, boasting a .333 BA this year in the minors.  His offensive potential even earned him a late-season call-up to Pittsburgh, a sign that he could be part of the picture in 2008.  Pearce has also spent some time in the outfield, so Jim Tracy should have some options to get his bat in the everyday lineup.

Neil Walker – This converted catcher was moved to 3rd base because of his offensive potential, and also the lack of depth within the organization.  Walker, a switch-hitter, spent most of the year in AA-Altoona…where he hit 13 HR to go along with a .288 BA.  He may stay in the minors one more year to refine his defensive skills and plate discipline, but if he progresses quickly…he could be in a Pirates uniform before you know it.

A Lot of This, Not Much of That

More than enough offensive depth, but not nearly enough pitching.  Here’s a look at each position:

Outfielders – A lot of options here to compliment Jason Bay.  The Chris Duffy experiment is all but over, but there is still plenty to choose from.  Xavier Nady, Steve Pearce, Ryan Doumit, Andrew McCutchen, Nyjer Morgan, Nate McClouth…all of whom could provide some serious offense.

3B – For right now, Jose Bautista is holding down the fort…and is doing better than most expected.  Neil Walker will likely be the 3rd baseman of the future, but Bautista may have earned the starting spot for another year with some decent numbers.  Freddy Sanchez can also handle the defensive duties at the hot corner, but Jim Tracy is trying his best to keep him at 2nd on a permanent basis.

SS – Jack Wilson could be gone next season, if for no other reason than his salary.  His offensive production is inconsistent at best, but he has finished 2007 as one of the hottest hitters on the team.  His defense is above average, but Brian Bixler will likely be the shortstop of the future.

2B – Freddy Sanchez should have this position locked up for quite a while.  With an average well above .300, he will be needed somewhere near the top of the lineup.

1B – For now, Adam LaRoche is the starter.  If Tracy decides to go with Steve Pearce or Ryan Doumit here, they will probably need to deal LaRoche first.  Xavier Nady could also be an option at 1st, but that seems unlikely at this point.

C – Ronny Paulino has been a durable and reliable player over the last two years, and has produced well enough to hold down the job on a full-time basis.  Paulino’s defense has improved, and his bat offers some power (11 HR).  Ryan Doumit serves as the back-up catcher, but his defensive skills aren’t nearly as sharp.  Either way the Pirates go, the back-stopper will provide a little bit of offense.

There’s Always Next Next Year

There is a new GM in town, and management has committed to spending some money “if it puts us over the top”.  Hopefully, they mean over the top of the bottom.  Otherwise, fans may be treated to another losing, albeit record-breaking, season in Pittsburgh.

Do we deserve to call ourselves sports fans, or have we transformed into faultfinders?  Criticism is never lacking in the realm of sports, with constant judgment being chucked from every possible angle – media, fans, has-been athletes, coaches, players, owners…everyone.

Somewhere in Normalville, USA…John Q. Fatcan sits in his leather recliner with a mouthful of Cheetos griping about how Shaquille O’Neal would be better if he worked harder to stay in shape.

While his unemployed buddy, Ivan A. Hanndoubt, laughs at the way Michelle Wie’s golf career has been mismanaged.

I’d quote some scripture about casting the first stone…but I think you get the point.

And I’ll admit, I can be overly critical sometimes…just like anyone else.  The problem is, when someone genuinely deserves to be criticized…that individual usually takes an unnecessary amount of punishment.  OK, that concept isn’t new…it’s just something that continues to be a piece of okra in my box of chocolates.

There is an endless amount of examples, but I’ll just stick to a few:

Never Big Enough for The Big Apple

Nearly half of the MLB season is gone, and Yankee fans seem temporarily pleased with Alex Rodriguez.  And why shouldn’t they be?  All he’s done so far is drive in a league-leading 80 RBI’s…to go along with 28 homers.  This is the same guy that was booed by his home crowd for a meaningless error against Tampa Bay on Opening Day.  Looks to me like the demands are simple…be the best player in baseball every single day, and we’ll like you.

And now that his game is clicking on all cylinders…A-Rod’s personal life is being attacked.  But that’s another story.

Just A Wie Bit Too Much

I’ll be the first to concede, Michelle Wie has been over-hyped about as much as any athlete could be.  The world expected this 17 year-old to be the female version of Tiger Woods by now, and she has received a lifetime’s allowance of criticism because of it.  Though Wie has played in Pro tournaments, she isn’t officially eligible to be an LPGA member until her 18th birthday.  Maybe it wasn’t executed to perfection, but how can her career path be “mismanaged” before it even really begins?  And what makes any of us experts on creating a golf champion anyway?

I think the Michelle Wie saga can teach us two lessons.  First, maybe we shouldn’t chastise an athlete that isn’t even considered a legal adult.  Second, don’t hype athletes before their professional career begins.
   
How Did They Manage to do That?

How can someone get paid millions to manage a major league baseball team, but can’t even manage their own temper?  You could argue that other sports are guilty of this same affliction, but baseball managers operate on a completely different level of rage.  The irony here is…baseball is probably the most simplistic of all the major sports.  The strike zone can be negotiable at times, but other than that…an out is an out, and a foul is a foul.  Yet you see grown men throwing tantrums that would impress Bobby Knight over the most basic of calls.

News flash…kicking dirt on an umpire’s shoes doesn’t change the way the game is called.  Barking like a pit bull hopped up on greenies doesn’t either.  Oh, and thanks for setting a great example.  Now every player that disagrees with a strike call can turn into the Incredible Hulk, too.

The Bitter End

I know…it wouldn’t be much fun if we couldn’t criticize athletes or officials.  But wouldn’t it be great if just once in a while, a discussion about sports would include…well, an actual discussion about sports?

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Angry Man ####y Beans
“If you had fire in the hole…you’d be angry, too.”

What a great day for baseball fans!  Every team and player barometer is set to zero, and everyone is contender.  Well, except for the Pirates and Royals…two teams that might struggle in your average co-ed church softball league.

Every year, Opening Day becomes the Realm of Ridiculous.  Fans begin to make premature conclusions based on this single game…which represents less than 1% of this season’s baseball action.

Pick Up the Pace

Whatever you do, please don’t make stat projections based purely on Opening Day results…

David Eckstein is on pace for 125 RBI’s - I’m going to wait a little longer before handing him the MVP award.  Although, if he can maintain his .750 batting average…

Kerry Wood is on pace for 162 games on the disabled list - OK, maybe some Opening Day projections are accurate.

Brian “got knocked on my #### and hurt” McCann hit the first home run of the season - Well, he may not hit 100 home runs…but expect a great season from the Braves’ catcher.

Carl Crawford is fast - With such superior stealing ability, will politics be in his future?

Cy Young contenders Carlos Zambrano and Chris Carpenter had shaky outings - Zambrano will be OK, unless he starts getting advice from Kerry Wood or Mark Prior.  Carpenter will still win 16 games or more, and his biggest worry this year will be finding pants to fit his 6’6” frame.

Double Your Fun

Almost every year, some Mr. Mediocre player will hit 2 home runs on Opening Day…and fans will quickly jump on the bandwagon.  This is usually a Shannon Stewart or Dmitri Young type of player.  Who will it be this year?

Sneak Peek

My American League surprise team has to be the Cleveland Indians.  Right now, they are smashing Jose Contreras and the Chicago White Sox.  If nothing else, the Indians should be an exciting team to watch.  The AL Central will probably be the toughest division in baseball…and the Indians should turn many heads this year.  My sleeper pick for the AL MVP, Grady Sizemore, is already off to a quick start.

The Boo Birds Singing Early

I don’t want to generalize, but I’m already severely disappointed with Yankee fans.  A-Rod has received some opening day boos, especially after committing a defensive error on a misjudged pop fly in foul territory.  If a Pirates player hits 35 HR and 121 RBI’s, he might be elected the mayor of Pittsburgh.  But apparently that isn’t enough for New York fans.  Just one more reason to despise the “Evil Empire”.

The Soothsayer Rides Again

Now that I’ve criticized early season projections, it’s time to give my own predictions:

NL East Winner - Philadelphia Phillies
NL Central Winner - St. Louis Cardinals
NL West Winner - Arizona Diamondbacks
NL Wildcard - NY Mets (does anybody still believe?)
AL East Winner - Boston Red Sox
AL Central Winner - Cleveland Indians (call me crazy)
AL West Winner - Some City in California Angels
AL Wildcard - Detroit Tigers

NL MVP - Albert Pujols (can’t bring myself to pick a surprise as long as he’s playing)
NL Cy Young - Brandon Webb (doesn’t need big strikeout numbers to be dominant)
AL MVP - Grady Sizemore (because predicting one of the other favorites is boring)
AL Cy Young - Johan Santana (nobody else is in his class)

The “I thought you were toast” award - Oliver Perez, NY Mets (I have no logical reason to believe he’ll provide any value for the Mets)
The “I can’t believe he’s not better” award - Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
The “Money isn’t everything” award - Roger Clemens, somewhere (won’t be the positive impact that people expect)
The “Unsung hero” award - Eric Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks
The “Billy Martin, angry manager” award - John Gibbons, Toronto Blue Jays
The “Kerry Wood, I should look for another job” award - Eric Gagne, Texas Rangers
Surprise pitcher award - Daniel Cabrera, Baltimore Orioles
Surprise hitter award - Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers

So there you have it…here’s hoping for a great season!  Enjoy…

The final days of spring…

Spring training is officially over, and the regular season is upon us.  An improved Pittsburgh Pirates squad will begin their 2007 journey tomorrow at Houston, hoping to turn things around after a disastrous year.

It probably isn’t what the fans want to hear, but this season figures to be more of the same for the Pirates…rebuilding.  Spring training meant mixed results for the troubled franchise, and several questions have yet to be answered.

Scary Stuff

Though statistics don’t have much merit in March, a closer look at the at spring numbers can provide a glimpse of the upcoming season.  For some of the Pirates, it may be time to hit the panic button.

Chris Duffy, CF & projected leadoff hitter - If anyone needed to have a strong showing this spring, it was Duffy.  The speedy outfielder was impressive in his rookie season, carrying a .341 batting average in 39 games.  His quick start earned him an everyday spot in the lineup as the leadoff hitter.  But things got ugly in 2006, as Duffy struggled mightily.  At one point, he was demoted to the minors…and it appeared that he might not make it back.

Duffy played fairly well in the second half of last season, but has been awful this spring.  His batting average has dipped below .200, and the Pirates desperately need a consistent table-setter at the top of the lineup.  With last year’s batting champ Freddy Sanchez starting the season on the disabled list, Pittsburgh will need Duffy to produce early.  If he doesn’t get off to a quick start, expect manager Jim Tracy to look for other options in centerfield.

Jose Bautista, 3B - After infielder Jose Castillo landed in Jim Tracy’s doghouse, Freddy Sanchez was moved to 2nd base to allow Bautista to become the starting 3rd baseman.  But of all the projected starters, Jose Bautista struggled the most this spring.  With a .182 batting average and no home runs, it appears that his everyday role is still up in the air.  For the time being, Jose Castillo will be starting for the injured Freddy Sanchez at 2nd…and unless Bautista turns it around in a hurry, he may be headed for the bench again.

Think Positive

It isn’t all bad news in Pirates camp.  Other than Freddy Sanchez (DL), most of the starting position players are ready to go.

Adam LaRoche, 1B - There are high hopes for the newly-acquired slugger, and so far…so good.  He hit just below .300 for the month of March, and also added half a dozen extra-base hits in 54 at-bats.  To say that the Pirates need his left-handed bat is more than an understatement.

Jack Wilson, SS - After slimming down a bit to focus on speed and defensive range, Wilson appears much more comfortable at the plate.  Don’t expect much in the power department, but by hitting .321 this spring…he looks more like the player that collected 200 hits in 2004.

Ronny Paulino, C - Following a stellar rookie campaign, Paulino has been the hottest hitter in camp.  He has shown flashes of power by belting 4 home runs, and is hitting an unbelievable .481 this spring.

All Dressed Up, and No Place To Go

The Spring Surprise has to be hefty slugger Brad Eldred.  The 275 pound 1st baseman was the odd man out after the Pirates landed Adam LaRoche, but Eldred has been too good to leave off the roster.  With 6 home runs and a .303 batting average, his potential may have Jim Tracy rethinking the lineup.  They have already experimented with Eldred in right field, and he could earn some serious playing time if either Duffy or Nady begin to falter.

Pitch Hunt

If the Pirates have any chance of staying out of the NL Central cellar, the pitching staff must exceed expectations.  The inexperienced staff still has a lot to prove, and things aren’t looking too promising.

Zach Duke, SP - The opening day starter hasn’t been the same since Jim Tracy decided to tinker with his delivery prior to the 2006 season.  The pinpoint accuracy he displayed during his rookie season is nowhere to be found, and he has been rocked harder than Paris Hilton on a routine Friday night.  The good news is that he is still young, and has time to develop.  Only time will tell if Duke can emerge as the staff ace he once appeared to be.

Tom Gorzellany, SP - Here is another young lefty with solid potential.  Gorzellany had perhaps the oddest spring stat-line, averaging close to one strikeout per inning…and a 7.96 ERA.

Ian Snell, SP - If there is such a thing as a “back-up ace”, then Snell is it.  He is one of the few Pittsburgh pitchers that looked sharp this spring, with solid strikeout totals and a 3.00 ERA.

The Bullpen - One of the reasons that the Pirates were willing to pull the trigger on the Mike Gonzalez trade was the depth of their bullpen.  However, if spring is any indication…there could be some serious late-inning trouble all year long.  Salomon Torres was penciled in to take over the closer duties, but a terrible spring may have Tracy looking elsewhere.

Bringing It All Together

Though there were some good signs, it figures to be another long year of rebuilding in Pittsburgh.  Offensively, the combination of Bay, LaRoche, and Sanchez should add a few more wins…but that won’t happen unless the pitching staff comes together.  The best the team can hope for is to hold on to their building blocks…and wait another year or two.

Here are a few quotes heard around the Spring Training camps as Opening Day approaches.  For the second straight year, I was lucky enough to hear some of the major leaguers spouting off about the upcoming season.  OK, maybe I didn’t actually hear any of these.  They could have said these things…but of course, they probably didn’t.

But fiction can be fun - here we go!

Chattin’ by the Cactus
Bartolo “I don’t normally shower, so I wear a lot of” Colon (SP, Angels):  “Holy cow, am I fat!  Maybe the David Wells Guide to Training video was a bad idea.”
John “I don’t even make enough money to afford a” Lackey (SP, Angels):  “Bartolo looks hungry, sweet mercy I hope he doesn’t eat me.”

Robby “I’ll just be snoozing on the” Hammock (C, D-Backs):  “But it’s a dry heat.” 
Eric “when I pee, it sure does” Byrnes (OF, D-Backs):  “What the hell is a dry heat?”

Jermaine “A-Rod is so dreamy, I could just” Dye (OF, White Sox):  “A-Rod doesn’t play here in the Cactus League?  ####!”

Gil “how did my career end up in such a” Meche (SP, Royals):  “They didn’t tell me that I had to earn this $55 million.  Are they crazy?  Haven’t they seen me pitch before?  Oh well, more hookers and crack rocks for me.” 
David “throwing my fastball sure is” Riske (RP, Royals):  “Great googily moogily, if I can’t stand out with this bunch of Royal retards…then I better start looking for another job.”

Dave “why in the hell did I vote for” Bush (SP, Brewers):  “I wish we played in Arizona all year…I can’t stand the smell of cheese.”
Matt “pursuing another career would have been” Wise (RP, Brewers):  “I can’t wait to get back to Milwaukee…I love the smell of cheese in the morning.”

Steve “career is definitely on the D” Kline (RP, Giants):  “I told you reporters for the last time, I don’t know what Barry Bonds keeps in his locker.”
Randy “the goodies in Mark Sweeney’s locker will help you” Winn (OF, Giants):  (singing softly) - “Some times I dream, that he is me…like Barry, if I could be like Barry.”

Gabbin’ by the Grapefruit
Hayden “I’m never going to make it out of the bull” Penn (SP, Orioles):  “Hey, can someone keep an eye out for Kris while I go give Anna Benson the high hard one?”
Paul “can I borrow some of your chewing 2” Bako (C, Orioles):  “Sorry, Hayden…she’s on the disabled list nursing a wrist injury.”

Josh “my rookie card is now worth 2 cents according to” Beckett (SP, Red Sox):  “Maybe if I fake an injury, these Beantown fans will quit pissing in my new convertible.”
Wily “won’t play no” Mo Pena (OF, Red Sox):  “Ha, ha!  I wonder who this convertible belongs to.  Loser…”

Miguel “my favorite kind of syrup is” Cairo (2B, Yankees):  “I can’t wait for A-Rod to get out of here.  And why did he demand that they put full-length mirrors in the showers?”
Andy “when I’m alone in the bullpen, I like to” Pettitte (SP, Yankees):  “Hey coach, is it time to hit the showers yet?”

Roy “every couple of weeks, my arm needs to take a” Halladay (SP, Blue Jays):  “I hope nobody notices that I gained 30 pounds in the off-season from drinking Molson and eating jelly doughnuts.”

Grady “I hope these pills will increase my” Sizemore (OF, Indians):  “Let’s see, it says side effects include - dizziness, temporary blindness, swelling in the groin area, abnormal ejaculation, insomnia, anal leakage, and increased obsession for Justin Timberlake videos.  So what’s the down side?”
Josh “the smoggy air in Cleveland makes me want to” Barfield (2B, Indians):  “Why is Grady looking at me that way?”

Carlos “I like gold chains better than” Silva (SP, Twins):  “Johan, Johan…yes, I know he’s good…but what about me?  Don’t let the near 6.00 ERA fool ya, I’m primetime baby!”
Lew “just bought a house I can’t a” Ford (OF, Twins):  “I wish that Torii would just leave already.  Man, I hate that son of a…oh, uh…hey, Torii.  How’s it going?  You’re doing a great job out there.  You da man!”
Torii “cried after watching the Deer” Hunter (OF, Twins):  “Man, I can’t wait to get out of here.”

Tim “when I pitch in New York, they hit my fastball in the” Hudson (SP, Braves):  “Hey, Chipper…is there any room left in the hot tub?  What?!  Hampton has been in there for over an hour!  This is getting ridiculous…”

Josh “a horny pig is always looking for a” Willingham (C/OF, Marlins):  “What’s a guy gotta do to get paid?”
Dan “if I don’t get a better contract, things could get” Uggla (2B, Marlins):  “What’s a guy gotta do to get paid?”
Matt “maybe I should hire a BALCO” Treanor (C, Marlins):  “You mean they are going to pay me to play?”

David “Minaya still can’t get it” Wright (3B, Mets):  “How many home runs do I have to hit in order to score Derek Jeter-caliber of women?”
Shawn “my shoddy production makes the fan’s faces turn” Green (OF, Mets):  “What do you mean there is no more room on the DL?  That’s how I make my living!”

Adam “the waitress took my plate before I was done” Eaton (SP, Phillies):  “Sure, I’ll go to the bullpen and be happy.  Nope, don’t mind being snubbed in favor of Jon Lieber.  Nope, not one bit.”
Jon “No way in hell I’ll make it as a middle re-“ Lieber (SP, Phillies):  “Eh, the bullpen won’t be so bad.  I hear they keep the mini-fridge stocked with Hot Pockets.  Mmmm, Hot Pockets…”

Adam “can’t wait until my time in Cincy is” Dunn (OF/1B, Reds):  “Playoffs?  Don’t talk about…playoffs?  Playoffs?”

Brad “doesn’t that just make you want to jump off a” Lidge (RP, Astros):  “I like the funny sound the choo-choo train makes after a home run.”
Jason “career isn’t exactly in the fast” Lane (OF, Astros):  “Choo choo!  Choo Choo!”

Paul “need a better contract to pay for” Maholm (SP, Pirates):  “Ha, ha, ha, ha…Zach Duke is our opening day starter?  Ha, ha, ha…”

Derek “self-esteem has hit an all-time” Lowe (SP, Dodgers):  “How Lowe can you go, baby…how Lowe can you go?  How Lowe can you…oh, uh…excuse me.  No, I wasn’t singing in the shower.  Must have been that bird outside or something.  I’ll be out in a minute.”

With all of the “rebuilding” talk in Pittsburgh over the past 2 decades, you would think the Pirates were erecting the Tower of Babel.

Unfortunately, 14 years of rebuilding has left the Pirates with the MLB equivalent of a flimsy tiki hut.  The troubled franchise hasn’t seen a winning season since 1992.  Coincidentally, that was the last year that Barry Bonds wore a Pirates uniform.

And it was all downhill from there.

In the years that followed, everything went wrong in Pittsburgh.  Prospects fizzled out.  The few star players they had were traded for next-to-nothing.  A few bad decisions and a bad case of “Small Market Syndrome” left the once proud franchise in a terrible mess.

Bad luck has also played a major role in the franchise’s struggles, especially when it comes to the pitching staff.  According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “In the past decade, five of the six pitchers they drafted in the first round…have needed major arm surgeries.”  Add one more pitcher to that list, as first round pick Brad Lincoln will miss the start of the season due to elbow surgery.

Estranged fans may be sick of hearing it, but this team is going to need a few years and lot of luck to become a winner.

2007 Pirates

They probably won't figure into the playoff race, but at least the Pirates will be an improved squad this year.  It may not be the kind of improvement fans would have hoped for, but it’s a start.

First off, the Pirates finally pulled the trigger on a deal that makes sense by trading for Adam LaRoche.  There hasn’t been an impact left-handed bat in Pittsburgh since Brian Giles left town, and LaRoche should provide a boost to an offense that ranked 29th in home runs last year.

And 2007 may be the first year that Pittsburgh hasn’t wasted money on washed-out free agents.  Instead of hiring stop-gaps such as Reggie Sanders or Jeromy Burnitz, the Pirates are using youngsters to take another step in the rebuilding process.

Position Battles

Another good sign is that there are fewer up-for-grab positions than in recent years.

3rd base - Manager Jim Tracy is using Spring Training as an opportunity to shake things up a bit.  For the moment, Freddy Sanchez has been moved to 2nd base in order to give Jose Bautista an audition at the hot corner.  Bautista is a 26 year-old outfielder with very little experience at the major league level.  However, he did display flashes of power last year by hitting 16 HR’s in 400 at-bats.

Jose Castillo may be the odd man out after a disappointing season in 2006.  More importantly, his poor fielding and plate discipline has apparently put him in Jim Tracy’s doghouse.  Even though he reportedly arrived at camp in good shape (20 lbs lighter), he may need an impressive spring to earn an everyday spot in the lineup.

Outfield - The outfield is pretty much set, barring some serious surprises this spring.  Jason Bay anchors the group in left field, and Chris Duffy is penciled in to play center and bat leadoff.  Xavier Nady has battled some health issues, but should get most of the playing time in right field.

Luis Matos is off to a quick start this spring, and hopes to earn a back-up spot on the Pirates’ roster.

Catcher - Ronny Paulino was one of the few bright-spots for Pittsburgh last year, impressing with the bat and behind the plate.  Switch-hitting Ryan Doumit split time between 1st base and catcher last season, but didn’t perform very well at the plate.  He should continue to develop as a hitter, but unless he does something spectacular this spring…he will probably see a lot of bench this season.

Throwing It All Away

The pitching staff is almost complete, with Tony Armas, Jr. and Shawn Chacon battling to become the 5th starter.  The rest of the rotation is filled with inexperienced hurlers, led by Zach Duke and Ian Snell - both of whom struggled quite a bit last year.

The bullpen has some depth with guys like Damaso Marte and Salomon Torres.  The bad news is that they could be overworked this year playing behind a less-than-stellar starting rotation.

The Not-So-Distant Future

Andrew McCutchen is easily the best prospect in the Pirates’ farm system, as a five-tool outfielder that has it all.  McCutchen has already developed quicker than expected, displaying excellent plate discipline rarely seen from a 20 year-old.  He is supposed to start the season playing for Altoona (AA), but will likely be promoted to class AAA Indianapolis by mid-season.  If he continues to learn at an astounding pace, he could be a serious impact player in 2008.

275 pound Brad Eldred has the kind of power you would expect from a big first baseman, and is already displaying it this spring…by hitting 3 homeruns in just 3 games.  Eldred has nothing left to prove at the minor league level, but with the addition of LaRoche…he won’t be able to play everyday for the Pirates.  If he continues to impress, Jim Tracy may decide to try him out in right field.

The biggest problem for the Pirates is their underwhelming stockpile of potential starting pitchers.  As mentioned earlier, most of the 1st round prospects have already had major arm surgeries…with the exception of Paul Maholm, who is projected as a major league starter.  If the Pirates are going to turn things around in the next couple of years, they will need a couple of these prospects to emerge as top-tier starters.  John Van Benschoten and Bryan Bullington are two pitchers that could make it happen, but they still have a lot to prove.  Expect them both to start out in AAA, but may be promoted if some of the other starters begin to falter.

Another concern high on the priority list is the lack of depth at 3rd base within the organization.  To address this need, the Pirates have converted switch-hitting catcher Neil Walker to 3rd base.  Walker is an athletic player capable of making the transition, but needs a lot more time in the minors to improve his hitting.  If the transition works, having a switch-hitter in the lineup could be a boost to the Pirates’ offense in a couple of years.

A Painful Process

Fortunately, there is a cure for Small Market Syndrome.  However, it will take a few years…because the Pirates have a bad case of it.  New principal owner Bob Nutting seems determined to build a winner, and the Pirates could be on the road to recovery.  But for now…fans can do nothing more than wait, and hope…