How bad are things in Pittsburgh?  The annual chants of “there’s always next year” have been replaced with something even more discouraging.

2009 will be the year for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

But before we examine that conundrum, let’s look at the current state of a once proud franchise.

For the second straight year, the Bucs are in a race to avoid the cellar (unsuccessful so far)…instead of battling for a pennant.  In 2006, Pittsburgh needed a late-season surge in order to finish 1 game ahead of the Chicago Cubs in the standings.  The Cubs spent some money in the off-season and appear poised for a worst-to-first division title and playoff berth.

The Pirates are in the same place they were last year.  If not worse.

They did manage a few more wins than last season, but they still aren’t any closer to building a winner.  In fact, they are on the verge of breaking a record of consecutive losing seasons.  Yes, indeed…it has been 15 years.

I suppose it isn’t all bad news in Pittsburgh.  By the numbers, this is an improved team.  And there some glimmer of hope for the future.  But still a lot of questions.

For starters, the Pirates are putting more runs on the board.  They are currently in the middle of the pack in the NL in runs scored.  By most accounts, franchise outfielder Jason Bay has had a sub-par season.  But a few other unlikely teammates have picked up the slack.  Jose Bautista, Nate McClouth…hell, even Jack Wilson is getting into the swing of things.

But when it comes to pitching, the stats are ugly.  A team 4.91 ERA (as of September 25) puts them only ahead of 2 NL teams (Marlins, Reds).  Not good results for a franchise that spent first round draft picks on starting pitchers in each of the past 7 years.

Only 2 starters this year have earned a permanent spot in the rotation.  Ian Snell (3.76 ERA), Tom Gorzelanny (3.73 ERA), and Paul Maholm (5.02 ERA) are the only members of the staff to approach the 200 inning benchmark.

Unless they make some moves, there isn’t likely to be much pitching help on the way either.  A questionable mid-season trade allowed them to acquire an overpriced Matt Morris, who has been terrible since suiting up for the Bucs.  The small group of prospects – Bryan Bullington, John Van Benschoten, Sean Burnett – have been shaky and injury-prone in the minors.  Van Benschoten is the only potential starter with significant time on the senior circuit this year, and his 9.73 ERA in 10 starts doesn’t exactly instill confidence for his future.

Bad Decisions

In the last 15 years of losing, the Pirates have a horrendous history with personnel choices…especially when it comes to pitching.  Most recently, Oliver Perez was traded to the Mets in 2006 after struggling mightily with his control, mechanics, and velocity.  Apparently, the Pirates weren’t patient enough with the talented lefty…because he ended up starting a Game 7 for New York in ‘06, and isn’t too far away from Cy Young contention this year.  I’m guessing they would like to take a mulligan on that one.

On the Rise

Back to the hopes for 2009.  There is a reason that management and fans are looking beyond next year.

Andrew McCutchen – This outfielder of the future has all the makings of a franchise player.  This 20 year old is a 5-tool player with unlimited potential.  A sluggish start in AA-Altoona may delay his arrival a bit, but fans can’t wait to see him in Pittsburgh.  McCutchen was more than impressive this past spring, and could be called up as soon as next year.

Brian Bixler – If the Pirates unload Jack Wilson this off-season, it will be because of the emergence of Bixler.  This shortstop earned team MVP honors in AAA-Indianapolis this year, and could be ready for the MLB sooner rather than later.  His stats in Indy were solid - .274 BA, 5 HR, 23 doubles, 10 triples, and 28 stolen bases in 129 games.  His speed would be a huge plus for a team that has historically struggled to manufacture runs.

Nyjer Morgan – Here is another outfielder that could be an option in Pittsburgh.  Morgan isn’t as young as the other prospects (turned 27 in July), but his .300 plus average (in the minors) and speed would give management something to think about…especially with no true leadoff hitter in the system.

Steve Pearce – This natural first baseman has been tearing it up at every level, boasting a .333 BA this year in the minors.  His offensive potential even earned him a late-season call-up to Pittsburgh, a sign that he could be part of the picture in 2008.  Pearce has also spent some time in the outfield, so Jim Tracy should have some options to get his bat in the everyday lineup.

Neil Walker – This converted catcher was moved to 3rd base because of his offensive potential, and also the lack of depth within the organization.  Walker, a switch-hitter, spent most of the year in AA-Altoona…where he hit 13 HR to go along with a .288 BA.  He may stay in the minors one more year to refine his defensive skills and plate discipline, but if he progresses quickly…he could be in a Pirates uniform before you know it.

A Lot of This, Not Much of That

More than enough offensive depth, but not nearly enough pitching.  Here’s a look at each position:

Outfielders – A lot of options here to compliment Jason Bay.  The Chris Duffy experiment is all but over, but there is still plenty to choose from.  Xavier Nady, Steve Pearce, Ryan Doumit, Andrew McCutchen, Nyjer Morgan, Nate McClouth…all of whom could provide some serious offense.

3B – For right now, Jose Bautista is holding down the fort…and is doing better than most expected.  Neil Walker will likely be the 3rd baseman of the future, but Bautista may have earned the starting spot for another year with some decent numbers.  Freddy Sanchez can also handle the defensive duties at the hot corner, but Jim Tracy is trying his best to keep him at 2nd on a permanent basis.

SS – Jack Wilson could be gone next season, if for no other reason than his salary.  His offensive production is inconsistent at best, but he has finished 2007 as one of the hottest hitters on the team.  His defense is above average, but Brian Bixler will likely be the shortstop of the future.

2B – Freddy Sanchez should have this position locked up for quite a while.  With an average well above .300, he will be needed somewhere near the top of the lineup.

1B – For now, Adam LaRoche is the starter.  If Tracy decides to go with Steve Pearce or Ryan Doumit here, they will probably need to deal LaRoche first.  Xavier Nady could also be an option at 1st, but that seems unlikely at this point.

C – Ronny Paulino has been a durable and reliable player over the last two years, and has produced well enough to hold down the job on a full-time basis.  Paulino’s defense has improved, and his bat offers some power (11 HR).  Ryan Doumit serves as the back-up catcher, but his defensive skills aren’t nearly as sharp.  Either way the Pirates go, the back-stopper will provide a little bit of offense.

There’s Always Next Next Year

There is a new GM in town, and management has committed to spending some money “if it puts us over the top”.  Hopefully, they mean over the top of the bottom.  Otherwise, fans may be treated to another losing, albeit record-breaking, season in Pittsburgh.