With another NBA draft comes another useless and ill-advised prognostication.  I often wonder why the media feels the need to crown the next big player as the savior for the franchise that drafts him.  

 In recent interviews after this week’s NBA Draft selection, both Jay Bilas and Bob Ryan were quoted as saying that Greg Oden would undoubtedly bring a title to Portland (assuming they draft him) within the next three to five years.  While I’m sure Trailblazer fans are ecstatic about the thought of returning to their glory years of Bill Walton and Dr. Jack Ramsey, unfortunately for them, a number one draft pick rarely guarantees a world championship.

A review of the top picks over the last twenty years supports this claim.  Only once since 1985 has a player chosen number one been the key factor in bringing a championship to the team that drafted him:

1985: Patrick Ewing, Georgetown, Drafted by New York.  While Patrick had a Hall of Fame career, he fell short of bringing the Knicks a title, thanks mostly to Michael Jordan.  Patrick only took his team to an NBA Finals once, losing to Houston in the 1993-94 season.

1986: Brad Daugherty, North Carolina, Drafted by Cleveland.  Brad failed to win a title with the Cavaliers, again thanks to Michael Jordan’s reign in the league.  An injury plagued career, Daugherty can now be seen on ESPN as a NASCAR analyst.

1987: David Robinson, Navy, Drafted by San Antonio.  Although the Admiral won a title, it wasn’t until the Spurs drafted Tim Duncan ten years later that they were able to get over the hump.  Robinson was consistently unable to get them there on his own.

1988:  Danny Manning, Kansas, Drafted by Los Angeles Clippers.  By the time the Clippers made a decent run at the playoffs, Manning was out of the league.

1989: Pervis Ellison, Louisville, Sacramento Kings.  Never played in an NBA Finals.

1990: Derrick Coleman, Syracuse, New Jersey Nets.  Never carried his team to a title.

1991: Larry Johnson, UNLV, Drafted by Charlotte.  Never won a title.

1992: Shaquille O’Neal, LSU, Drafted by Orlando.  Shaq’s legacy on the game is undeniable.  He won three championships with the Lakers and one with Miami, but none with the team that actually drafted him, taking the Magic to the Finals and losing to Houston in 1994-95.

1993: Chris Webber, Michigan, Drafted by Orlando.  Orlando traded the rights to Webber for Anfernee Hardaway.  Webber is only now getting to the Finals with Detroit at the end of his career and is hardly their go-to-guy.

1994: Glenn Robinson, Purdue, Drafted by Milwaukee.  The Big Dog finally won a ring as a role player with the Spurs in 2005 and was hardly a factor in the series.

1995: Joe Smith, Maryland, Drafted by Golden State.  Joe Smith is more famous for illegally signing with Minnesota than any magical playoff runs.

1996: Allen Iverson, Georgetown, Drafted by Philadelphia.  The Answer was able to carry the 76ers to the NBA Finals in 2001, only to lose to Kobe, Shaq and the Lakers.

1997: Tim Duncan, Wake Forest, Drafted by San Antonio.  Big Fundamentals is the exception to the rule, the one shining star of the last twenty years who has delivered several championships to the Spurs.  Duncan may go down as the best power forward to ever play the game.  Duncan also played a full four years of college basketball before declaring for the draft.

1998: Michael Olowakandi, Pacific, Drafted by the Clippers.  Think Los Angeles wants this pick back?  The Kandiman has averaged 8 points and 6 rebounds over his career and was selected over Mike Bibby, Antawn Jamison, Vince Carter, Larry Hughes, Paul Pierce and this year’s MVP, Dirk Nowitzki.

1999: Elton Brand, Duke, Drafted by Chicago.  No longer playing for the Bulls, Brand has been a consistent threat in the post, but as of yet, has not sniffed the Finals.

2000: Kenyon Martin, Cincinnati, Drafted by New Jersey.  Marred by an injury-plagued career, K-Mart did help the Nets make it to the Finals, but it was more Jason Kidd’s team than his.

2001: Kwame Brown, Glynn Academy, Drafted by Washington.  Not one of his finer scouting moments, Michael Jordan was able to lure Kwame away from a verbal commitment at the University of Florida with the guarantee of a number one pick.  Kwame is still finding his place in the league.

2002:  Yao Ming, China, Drafted by Houston.  Although one of the most recognizable faces in the league, Yao has been unable to get out of the first round of the playoffs, and that’s with Tracy McGrady as his teammate.

2003: LeBron James, St Vincent, Drafted by Cleveland.  The Chosen One is one series away from the Finals, but it doesn’t look like it will happen this year.

2004: Dwight Howard, SW Atlanta Christian Academy, Drafted by Orlando.  Dwight had a breakout season, but the Magic are years away from any Finals appearances.

2005: Andrew Bogut, Utah, Drafted by Milwaukee.  Too early to tell, but it’s unlikely Andrew will be the driving factor in bringing a championship back to Milwaukee.

2006:  Andrea Bargnani, Italy, Drafted by Toronto.  The Raptors won their division this year and Bargnani played well, but if Nowitzki can’t win a championship, do we really expect Bargnani to?

As you can see, the number one pick in the draft does not necessarily translate into titles.  So, by that logic, isn’t it premature to guarantee that Greg Oden, who only played one year of college basketball at Ohio State, will bring Portland, who didn’t even make the playoffs this year, a championship??

Let’s quickly compare Oden’s college career numbers to Shaq’s and Duncan’s:

At Ohio State this year, Oden averaged 15.7 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 3.3 bpg and shot 61% from the floor.

For his career, Shaquille O’Neal averaged significantly better numbers:  21.6 ppg, 13.5 rpg, 4.5 bpg and also shot 61% from the floor.  In 1990-91, his sophomore year, Shaq averaged 27 and 15!!

Duncan averaged 16, 12 and 4 over his four-year stint at Wake Forest and his numbers increased every year, averaging 21 and 15 his senior season.

I’m not saying Greg Oden won’t be a talent in the league, and I wish him and the team that drafts him the best.  But to prematurely state that Oden will bring Portland a title is ill-informed and borderline ludicrous.

I wrote last night that the hardest thing to do in professional sports is to hit a major league fastball.  I think I'm starting to change my mind.

In the last three playoff games I've watched, which coincidentally also happen to be the last three games TNT has aired, I've witnessed three separate, errant inbound passes that either cost or could have cost their team the game.

Dateline Monday night...  Spurs led the Mavericks by a point with possession of the basketball and thirty seconds remaining on the game clock.  Brent Barry was slated to safely inbound the ball to a teammate, who would most likely be fouled and sent to the free throw line to give the Spurs a three-point lead.  Instead, Barry's errant pass bounced off Michael Finley's fingers allowing the Mavericks to eventually win the game.

Once again, on Tuesday night, the New Jersey Nets placed the ball in the hands of point guard Jason Kidd, who was unable to complete the pass to Vince Carter, allowing Dwayne Wade to sneak in and knock the ball away.

In Tuesday's late game, the Clippers had an opportunity to win the game by inbounding the ball deep into Elton Brand.  Instead, the pass sailed out of bounds, ensuring that the clock did not start and allowing the Suns one last look at an open basket.

Now certainly it's not only the inbounder's responsibilty to make a good pass.  Inbounding the basketball also requires the player receiving the pass to establish position, as he would in the post, thus keeping the defender away from the ball.  Vince Carter failed to do this.  Elton Brand never had a chance.  And the only thing defending Michal Finley was the sideline, and we all know the sideline never misses a tackle.

So instead of NBA head coaches forcing their roster to shoot jumpers and free throws until nightfall, perhaps they should look at the lost art of inbounding the basketball.  It just might come in handy one day.