The Matt Holliday deal received most of the attention this past week, but there were a number of other under-the-radar moves that were overshadowed by the latest chapter of the Billy Beane story.

The Florida Marlins continued to dump payroll, trading three more players who were eligible for big raises in arbitration. The Marlins made one of the first moves of the Hot Stove season when they dealt power-hitting, low-OBP first baseman Mike Jacobs to the Kansas City Royals in exchange for reliever Leo Nunez a few weeks back. They stayed on course with their plan this past week, dealing away Kevin Gregg, Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham in two cost-cutting transactions.

Olsen and Willignham are headed to the Washington Nationals, who sent second baseman Emilio Bonifacio and a pair of minor leaguers down to Florida in return.

The Marlins were clearly looking to wash its hand of the pair for financial reasons. The Nationals, though, received some solid immediate help in this player swap.

Olsen has had some serious off-the-field issues in the past, but reportedly made strides as a person this past year. He has above-average stuff for a left-hander as well, which is why he was a top prospect not too long ago. Although his average fastball velocity dropped nearly three miles per hour, he had a respectable, but not spectacular finish; 201.2 innings pitched, 4.20 ERA, 101 ERA+.

However, Olsen does not miss bats as frequently as many scouts expected when he was considered a top prospect. In fact, his K/9 rate has steadily decreased since his strong rookie performance in 2006--8.27, 6.78, 5.04. He has been prone to giving up the long ball as well, having allowed 59 in the past two seasons. He is still only 24 years old and has proven to be durable in his recent past, but his ceiling is fairly limited if he does not regain some velocity.

If Olsen can do so, there is a chance for the Nationals to add a difference-making lefty to their starting rotation for a fairly cheap price.

Willingham is an above-average offensive player with solid on-base skills. He has decent power (45 home runs from 2006-07), but excellent plate discipline is the biggest area of strength in his skill set. The outfielder, in an injury-plagued campaign, posted a decent line of .254/.364/.470, with 15 homers, in 351-at bats in 2008. The Nationals' outfield is getting crowded quickly, but he has a chance to add a significant boost to an anemic offense that is starved for players who get on base. He is a poor defensive corner outfielder, which negates some of his contributions at the plate. Still, he is a bargain in cost relative to the market value for his production; he has a career .472 slugging percentage and 117 OPS+.

The Nationals are miles away from putting good enough of a product on the field to realistically compete in the N.L. East; Jim Bowden is still the general manager, after all, and this deal is by no means destined to push them over the top. To his credit, though, Bowden acquired two low-risk, high reward options who could each breakout in a new environment, improving his roster in the short term.

On the Marlins' end, they received a decent utility man in Bonifacio, who has batted .240/.300/.328 in 192 major league at-bats. He is a solid infielder defensively, with the ability to play multiple positions effectively. While he is still young, he is never shown much offensively--outside of a strong performance in the California League in '06, when he posted minor league highs in batting average, OBP and slugging percentage--and does not project as even a league average hitter in the majors.

Florida also picked up two low-level minor leaguers, P.J. Dean and Jake Smolinski.

Dean was selected in the seventh round back in 2007 out of a Texas high school. He had a so-so short-season debut in the Gulf Coast League once he signed, posting a 4.06 ERA in only nine starts. He had some success in the New York Penn League in his second pro stint; 4-1 record, 1.57 ERA, 34 strikeouts, 16 walks in 46.0 innings pitched over 10 starts for the Vermont Lake Monsters. In the long run, he could end up blossoming into a legitimate big league prospect but he still is several years away from adding any value at the major league level.

Smolinski will miss all of 2009 after undergoing knee surgery. The Nationals' second-round selection in '07, he was considered one of the best prep hitters in the nation during his senior year of high school. He played some second base and the outfield during his career so far, yet still lacks a real position at this point. He is an interesting hitting prospect who makes good contact, but is not expected to hit for a lot of power. In 77 games combined between three levels, he batted .271/.345/.395, with four homers and a .740 OPS.

Considering its primary intention, Florida adds two high school draftees who could develop while receiving some salary relief. Washington still appears to be the winner here.

The Marlins gained a lot more than the opportunity to free up some payroll in their deal with the Chicago Cubs, getting back promising right-handed pitching prospect Jose Ceda.

With the Gregg move, Chicago has officially cut its ties with free-agent closer Kerry Wood, who was looking for at least a three-year deal. Wood's replacement, Carlos Marmol, had an excellent year in a setup role and should pick up a ton of saves when given the chance. Unfortunately, the Cubs' new reliever is really not as great as advertised, and is a clear downgrade in the setup role when compared to the Marmol/Wood combination. He has been effective by mixing a sinker, split-fastball and slider in the recent past, enabling him to win the closer role in Florida in '07. It is easy to get fooled by his 61 saves since then, though, which are a function of his being just decent enough to gain the opportunity for so many chances more than anything else. His control is subpar--77 walks allowed since '07--and he has a 4.00 career ERA.

It is misguided to criticize Chicago for not locking up Wood to a long-term deal, given his injury history. However, it is surprising that they parted ways with Ceda, who has excellent stuff, a live arm and the chance to be special. He posted a 12.46 K/9 ratio in 22 relief appearances in Double-A in '08, striking out 42 in 30.1 innings. In fact, the soon-to-be 22-year-old has posted high strikeout totals at each stop in the minors, using a mid-90s fastball/slider mix to overmatch young hitters. He is a nice pickup for the Marlins, who were going to cut Gregg loose, anyway, since he is due to make around $3-million in arbitration.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

I will be appearing on the Sports Cafe with Sean Duade on Sunday morning to discuss the latest news on the Hot Stove.

Click here to listen live. I will be coming on at 11:20

Near the end of July, the Washington Nationals decided to give shortstop Cristian Guzman a two-year, $16-million contract extension. Guzman, an All-Star, was having a fairly decent season at the time, hitting around .300 while ranking among league leaders in base hits. He is also a strong defender who can play multiple positions. Still, I was critical of the decision at the time, writing:

The Washington Nationals locked up shortstop Cristian Guzman to a two-year, $16 million extension earlier this week. Guzman was elected to the All-Star game, even making some nifty plays in the infield to help keep the National League in the classic extra-innings affair. In reality, however, Guzman did not deserve to be there, by any stretch of the imagination. Sure, he is batting .305 right now, is a solid defensive middle infielder and is finally healthy. Considering his injury-riddled tenure in DC--he missed the entire '06 season--that is saying a lot.

With that being said, Guzman's offensive output still leaves a lot to be desired, evident by his career line of .267/.305/.382 and .686 OPS. While he is actually hitting well above his weight for once, the 30-year-old shortstop has poor plate discipline, drawing walks about as frequently as Jason Bartlett of the Tampa Bay Rays, and is responsible for making far too many outs. Thus, when his batting average regresses back to the mean, his OBP will works its way back to an unacceptable level.

Well, the outmaking machine is now batting .294/.324/.400, for a whopping .725 OPS, through 110 games. Really, defense-aside, he is a below-average major league player. But the real problem that I had with Nationals general manager Jim Bowden’s decision is this: why throw money at a player—even an impact star—who will almost certainly not play an important role when Washington is finally ready to contend? Instead of accomplishing thing of real importance, deals like this usually set a club back from truly remaining competitive over an extended time period.

Over the length of deal, it seems, the Nationals will not be playing any meaningful games. True, anything can happen in the lowly National League. However, the odds of them making a real impact in the NL East before the turn of the next decade—especially with Bowden running the show—are fairly low.

So, I concluded the article like this:

With Guzman, it is almost certain that he will not be part of a postseason-caliber team during the length of the deal as the Nationals appear to be destined to remain in the cellar of the National League East. Therefore, by signing him, the organization took a step backwards, not forward, wasting financial resources that could be invested more wisely. He is only a band-aid, a short-term fix that will end up poorly for Washington. And by locking him up, Bowden essentially wasted millions of dollars that could be devoted to international scouting or signing draft picks.

Well, now it looks like the Nationals are not going to sign their first-round pick, Missouri starting pitcher Aaron Crow. Crow, the ninth pick of the draft, signed a professional contract to play Independent Ball with the Fort Worth Cats of the American Association on Wednesday.

According to Randy Hendricks, Crow’s agent, the talks between the two parties have stalled.

“We wouldn’t have had him sign with the Cats if we thought he was going to sign with the Nationals,” Hendricks said. “The last I talked with Jim Bowden, he didn’t think there was anything more to talk about. I didn’t disagree.”

There is still a chance that the two sides will reach an agreement before the deadline on Friday. It is likely, though, that he will become the next Luke Hochevar, who followed the same route after being selected in the 2005 draft by the Los Angeles Dodgers. Hochevar then reentered the draft the next June, and the Kansas City Royals took him with the number one overall pick.

Bowden—step in here, Stan Katsen—cannot let this happen. Although the organization will receive another first-round pick if they fail to sign Crow, they need to add another premier prospect to the farm system. Right Now.

As a mid-market team, they need to build from within, investing the proper money into player development, then locking up their young talent long-term—before free agency is even an issue. This is perhaps the only way that the franchise will ever be able to sustain a consistent level of success, given the economic market in the industry today. There is a high level of risk associated with nearly every pitcher who gets drafted, but failing to sign a first-round pick is inconsistent with the aforementioned vision.

Which is why the Guzman deal was puzzling, to say the least. Teams that throw around money at free agents when they are not ready to compete yet may leave fans—trust me, I received a lot of emails about why the Guzman deal was a smart move—with the perception that they are righting the ship. In reality, however, they are only prolonging the losing process.

Unlike the Nats’ incumbent shortstop, though, Crow has a chance to be a part of the truly next great Washington team, possibly at the top of the starting rotation. The 22-year-old right-hander has excellent stuff—highlighted by a mid-90s fastball, an 87 MPH power slider and decent command—and the chance to turn into a front-end starter in the majors. The Big 12 pitcher of the year, he went 13-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 127 strikeouts in 107 1/2 innings this past season.

Thus, Bowden has to do work out a deal. If he cannot do so, then you can add this to a list of many blunders during his tenure as GM. Heck, if he did not decide to waste all that money on Guzman, perhaps the dollar amount would not be an issue. Spending money on a potential star in the future is a much better investment than giving away charity to an aging middle infielder without any on-base skills and declining speed, right?

While the Bowden era may be coming to an end soon, the Nationals need to sign Crow. If money is the ultimate factor that prevents it from happening, especially after the Guzman debacle, a leadership change is an absolute must.

Unless, of course, the ownership group enjoys losing.

What Are Nationals Thinking?

The Washington Nationals locked up shortstop Cristian Guzman to a two-year, $16 million extension earlier this week. Guzman was elected to the All-Star game, even making some nifty plays in the infield to help keep the National League in the classic extra-innings affair.

In reality, however, Guzman did not deserve to be there, by any stretch of the imagination.

Sure, he is batting .305 right now, is a solid defensive middle infielder and is finally healthy. Considering his injury-riddled tenure in DC--he missed the entire '06 season--that is saying a lot.

Still, Guzman's offensive performance leaves a lot to be desired, evident by his career line of .267/.305/.382 and .686 OPS. While he is actually hitting well above his weight for once, the 30-year-old shortstop has poor plate discipline, drawing walks about as frequently as Jason Bartlett of the Tampa Bay Rays, and is responsible for making far too many outs. Thus, when his batting average regresses back to the mean, his OBP will works its way back to an unacceptable level.

In his first season with the Nationals, he was about as unproductive as a hitter can possibly be, hitting .268/.311/.365, for one of the lowest OPS (.576) totals among qualifying regulars in the majors. The following year he did not play in a game, before coming back to to hit a misleading .328 in 46 games at the end of 2007. Which leads us to '08, where he is actually among NL leaders with 29 doubles and is leading the circuit with 131 base hits. Guzman, however, does not hit for any power (50 career home runs), is no longer a plus runner and does not get on base enough. It is easy to get fooled by the hits and batting average with Guzman, who is even slugging 35 points higher than his career mark.

Apparantly, though, Bowden, seemingly one of a decreasing number of general managers who still fall into the trap of putting too much emphasis on a player's high batting average and strong performance based off a small sample size, did get fooled. Honestly, has he been watching any baseball over the previous three years with Guzman under contract?

The longtime GM only continues to make poor decisions as the leader of the Nationals, who need to focus on building from within and did not receive as much as they possibly could have for reliever Jon Rauch.

Instead of locking Guzman up, Bowden should have tried to turn him into prospects, as his value will never be higher. The odds of him making an All-Star team ever again are fairly slim. In fact, it is more likely that his replacement-level offensive production in the backend of the contract will cripple the Nationals' offense long after Bowden is gone.

Bowden, who is currently under investigation by the MLB centering around a bonus scandal involving international prospects, continues to err during the trade deadline season.

By not dealing Alfonso Soriano at the deadline back in '06, he missed an opportunity to bring in a few high-level prospects. Instead, he waited to receive two compensation picks in return when Soriano bolted for free agency.

Last year, Ronnie Belliard and Dmitri Young had fine comeback seasons, including impressive first-half performances. Instead of selling high, giving up either player for prospects, Bowden held onto them, buying high by offering the aging pair extensions to keep them in Washington.

Similar to the financial markets, buying high is never an effective strategy for investors looking to achieve long-term success.

The market for baseball players is not any different.

Young now looks more like Mario Batali than a professional athlete, out indefinitely as he attempts to get his diabetes under control.

As it turns out, the surplus first base situation--where Nick Johnson and Young battled for the starting role during spring training--has not been an issue for the reasons many thought it would be for manager Manny Acta. Instead of struggling to find enough at-bats for two of the club's most productive hitters, each slugger has struggled to stay on the field. Johnson continues to be sidetracked with injuries, as he has played in only 38 games.

Then there is Belliard, who is hitting only .230 without any power .

With Guzman, it is almost certain that he will not be part of a postseason-caliber team during the length of the deal as the Nationals appear to be destined to remain in the cellar of the National League East. Therefore, by signing him, the organization took a step backwards, not forward. He is only a band-aid, a short-term fix that will end up poorly for Washington.

The above article was originally posted at Scout.com.

HGH Test?

So, scientists have reportedly developed a urine test that will detect the use of human growth hormone, the one drug that remains prevalent in Major League Baseball.

From A.J. Perez of USA Today:

A team of scientists from the USA and Italy say they have developed a urine test that detects human growth hormone. The finding is a potential breakthrough in efforts to find a non-invasive way to screen for the performance-enhancing drug that is banned throughout the athletic world.

Governing bodies and U.S. pro leagues have long sought a test that doesn't require blood to detect HGH, a synthetic hormone that aids in recovery and bolsters muscle growth. Even with the blood test, no prominent athlete has tested positive for HGH. Former track and field star Marion Jones and some baseball players, including New York Yankees pitcher Andy Pettitte, have admitted using it.

If this test, indeed, is effective, it will be great for Major League Baseball and all professional sports leagues as they attempt to eradicate the use of performance-enhancing drugs.

One can only wonder, though. What will be the next drug that will works its way into sports?

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

Note: I wrote this post a few days ago for Scout.com, and the stats mentioned are not accurate.

After a torrid start, Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley, batting .247/.354/.457 in June, has cooled down at the plate as of late. The majors' home run leader entering the month, Utley has hit only three homers in 81 June at-bats. From May 28 to June 2, he homered in five consecutive games, as Philadelphia won four of five. But Utley's last home run came nearly three weeks ago in the Phillies' 20-2 thumping over the St. Louis Cardinals on June 13. During his slump, his NL East second base counterpart, Dan Uggla (23 homers entering Saturday), has surpassed him for the major league lead in home runs.

Throughout the month Utley has continued to play excellent defense--he does not get enough credit for his achievements with the glove--at second base. It is no coincidence, however, that his offensive struggles have coincided with the Phillies' recent slide. While Interleague Play has not been friendly to many teams on the Senior Circuit, the Phils’ are 2-9 since they put up 20 runs in St. Louis. During that period, Utley posted a line of .143/.245/.238, as he has collected only six base hits in his last 42 at-bats.

As a team in the month of June, Philadelphia is batting .233/.325/.395, for a putrid OPS of .716, and has scored 103 runs. Utley is the key bat for Phillies, who are still the favorite to win the National League East. While the club, currently 43-38, has just a one-game lead over the Florida Marlins in the division, it has outscored opponents 411-337. The Phillies’ run differential of 74, in fact, is one of the best in the majors.

Led by Utley, his double-play partner, Jimmy Rollins, and the surging Pat Burrell, Philadelphia ranks fourth in the majors in runs scored. Despite the swoon this month, the club still boasts one of the most dynamic offenses as Major League Baseball enters the second half of its season. The Phillies also sit 10th in team ERA, 3.90, led by young left-hander Cole Hamels.

Hamels has posted an opponents’ line of .210/.262/.377, striking out 95 while only walking 29. Overall, he is 7-5 with a 3.27 ERA and the second-lowest WHIP (1.03) in the National League in 113.0 innings pitched.

Kyle Kendrick has a low batting average on balls in play, pointing towards regression. However, Kendrick, a savior for Philadelphia down the stretch last season, is coming off arguably the most dominant outing of his career. On Wednesday, he stopped the bleeding for the Phillies against the American League, tossing eight four-hit, shutout innings in a win over the Oakland Athletics. While he has received his fair share of run support, he is 7-3 in 16 starts, with the 10th-highest winning percentage in baseball.

Jamie Moyer is an ageless wonder. Moyer has been solid, going 7-5 with a1.36 WHIP.

Brett Myers’ return to the rotation was supposed to give the Phillies a huge boost. Myers’ once-plus velocity has eluded him this spring, however, and he has struggled with his command at times. If he can get it going post-break, the Phillies will add an impact arm before the trade deadline, by default.

Francisco Rodriguez may be on pace to break Bobby Thigpen’s single-season saves record, given how plentiful save chances are for the low-scoring Los Angeles Angels. Still, one could make the case that Phillies closer Brad Lidge has been the better ninth-inning stopper this season. Lidge was acquired in a deal with the Houston Astros this offseason in exchange for speedster Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary and a minor leaguer. Labeled as a “head case with lights-out stuff,” many applauded Pat Gillick for pulling the trigger on the deal, because it allowed Myers to convert back to a starter. Lidge, however, has been invaluable to Philadelphia, limiting opponents to a line of .157/.258/.185 while picking up 18 saves in as many chances. In 30.1 innings pitched, he is 1-0 with a 0.87 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.

With such a balanced attack—despite its recent struggles against teams from the superior league—Philadelphia is still the favorite entering the season’s final 81 games. At the same time, the Marlins--with a starting rotation consisting of mediocre starting pitchers such as former NBA player Mark Hendrickson--have actually been outscored by the competition, with a -15 run differential. This indicates that Florida has had its fair share of luck this season.

After being swept by the Tampa Bay Rays this week, the Marlins appear to be a pretender at this juncture, while their in-state rival established themselves as legitimate threat in the American League East. Florida is batting .252./.318/.441 as a team. Every starter in the Marlins' infield--Jorge Cantu (14, .811 OPS), Mike Jacobs (18, .785 OPS), Hanley Ramirez (.17, .904 OPS) and Uggla--has reached double digits in home runs.

The pitching staff down in Miami, however, has been a cause for concern. Thus, it is unlikely that the team will maintain its current win/loss record.

Josh Johnson is on his way back to majors, getting ready to make one of his last rehab appearances.

Ricky Nolasco is 8-4 with a 66-to-28 K/W ratio.

Andrew Miller, 5-6 with a 1.60 WHIP, has had some issues with command, but has flashed brief glimpses of his tremendous potential.

Scott Olsen has rebounded from a tumultuous '07 campaign, posting a 3.44 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in his first 16 starts.

Regardless, the Marlins' starting rotation, which has posted an opponents’ line of .276/.347/.345, will not be an area of strength for the club down the stretch. Thus, as the bats cool off, the Marlins could fall too far out of contention to make a realistic push for the postseason.

The Atlanta Braves are on pace to set a record for the most one-run losses in a single season; if the team won half of those contests they would perhaps be atop the standings right now in the division. Cleary, Atlanta has had its fair share of bad luck, as their +47 run differential indicates.

Still, at 40-41, the Braves are only three games back in the East. Despite all of the losses in close games, they are a legitimate threat--perhaps the Phillies' most realistic competition--to reach the postseason, especially if the breaks start to bounce their way in the second half.

Brian McCann has the highest OPS, .921, among all catchers in the majors.

Chipper Jones is enjoying arguably the strongest first half of his career, batting .394/.485/.630, for the majors’ best OPS (1.115). While eclipsing the .400 plateau seems unlikely, Atlanta needs Jones’ bat--assuming he can stay healthy, which is a big if--to continue to carry them following the All-Star break. If he can remain on the field and the Braves are playing meaningful games in September, he has a strong chance to add an MVP award to his stellar resume.

Coming off a three-homer game, soon-to-be free-agent first baseman Mark Teixeira seems destined to have a strong second half. With a long-term, $100-million deal awaiting him this winter, Teixeira--currently batting .271/.365/.471--has plenty of motivation to put up lofty numbers after the break. With Atlanta still in the hunt, it is unlikely that the organization would consider dealing him before the trade deadline, though the club is reportedly interested in adding another bat to solidify their lineup. Pittsburgh outfielders Jason Bay and Xavier Nady have surfaced in rumors, and--at the right price for GM Frank Wren--either outfielder could be the right match.

Even with the absence of veterans Mike Hampton, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz, Atlanta still boasts a formidable pitching staff, and seems set on starting pitching.

Jorge Campillo, 1.02 WHIP in eight starts, has been a solid upgrade, missing bats to the tune of a 53-to-12 K/W ratio.

Tim Hudson, as usual, continues to anchor the staff. Hudson, 8-5, has registered a 2.96 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 109.1 innings pitched.

Jair Jurrjens has been the premier rookie starting pitcher through the midway point, going 8-3 with a 2.94 ERA. Jurrjens, acquired this offseason in the trade that sent Edgar Renteria to Detroit, is a strong candidate to take home NL Rookie of the Year honors in a deep class of newcomers. He has posted an opponents' OPS of .666, 1.32 WHIP and 69-to-37 K/W ratio, surrendering only 32 earned runs and 92 hits in 98.0 innings pitched.

Another youngster, Charlie Morton, will get a crack in the second half as well. Morton, who established himself as a solid major league prospect with a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League in 2007, has had an up-and-down stint in the minors since the Braves selected him out of Joel Barlow High School in Redding, Connecticut back in 2002.

After Philadelphia, it seems, Atlanta has the most realistic chance of winning the division crown.

The New York Mets, 39-40, have a -2 run differential, and are unlikely to emerge as a realistic contender in the second half.

Manager change or not--honestly, will Jerry Manuel make that much of a difference?--this club seems destined to miss the postseason for the second consecutive year. There has been a lot of talk about how New York has underachieved. But have they, really? Like the myth that the Seattle Mariners are underperforming--solely because they added Erik Bedard this offseason to a team that was lucky to remain in postseason contention last summer--many people view the Mets’ poor first half as a surprise. After all, they added All-Star left-hander Johan Santana--the best starter in baseball from 2004-to-'06--to the starting pitching mix this offseason.

Still, though, the New York appears to be headed towards a .500 season, which really is not all that much of shock.

The Mets’ chapter in the 2008 Baseball Prospectus handbook ends like this: "The Mets endured a shocking last-minute disappointment in 2007. Unable or unwilling to undertake a needed rebuilding of their aging roster, the Mets will suffer more disappointment in 2008, only this year it will start on Opening Day."

Omar Minaya’s job seems safe, but should it be? He has thrown far too much money at aging stars on the decline--some players whom have never been stars; Luis Castillo at four years, $25-million, for example. Yet again, the ’08 version of the Mets proves that a high payroll does not guarantee success.

Jose Reyes and David Wright (.844 and .874 OPS, respectively) have not provided as much offensive production as they are capable of. Outside of the talented left-side of the New York infield, though, most hitters on the roster are staying in line with their pre-season projections.

Carlos Delgado needed a nine-RBI performance on Friday night to improve his OPS to .734. Delgado, an aging 36-year-old who inches towards replacement-level caliber with every passing day, is batting .233/.313/.422. It is no secret; his days as a productive offensive player are long gone.

While the offense has struggled--as a team, the club ranks 13th in runs scored, 19th in home runs (71) and OPS (.728) and 21st in batting average--the club's veteran starting rotation is equally as concerning.

Can Pedro Martinez stay healthy over the next 81 games? Martinez is 2-2 with a 7.12 ERA in six starts.

Oliver Perez is consistently inconsistent, a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde impersonator out on the mound. He has struggled with his command as well, currently ranking second in the National League with 52 walks. Overall, the 26-year-old southpaw is 5-5 with a 5.29 ERA, opponents' OPS of .802 and 1.56 WHIP. Hitters are batting .252/.374/.427 against him in 83.1 innings pitched.

Santana no longer has the same dominant stuff that he had in Minnesota a few years ago, but has still been the most effective New York starter. While he has given up 14 home runs--he allowed 33 in '07--he has been a lot more effective than his 7-6 record indicates, posting a team-best 2.93 ERA.

Still, with the Mets' pitching staff and anemic offense, odds are against a repeat of last season's historic September collapse. Unfortunately, though, the reason is that the club will not have a division lead to give away, as a third-place finish appears likely for Mr. Minaya’s overpaid bunch of veterans.

The Washington Nationals, currently 11 games back, do not have the personnel to make a late-season charge. With Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge, though, there is still entertainment value from the baseball team in DC.

There is a great deal of baseball left to be played, and the NL East is still wide open. At this point, though, Atlanta and Philadelphia appear to be the most realistic contenders in the division.