Jonah Keri, co-author of Baseball Between The Numbers,
was kind enough to answer several questions about the Tampa Bay Rays in
an email exchange. Keri is a frequent contributor to ESPN.com (click here for archive) whose writing has appeared in Baseball Prospectus, Playboy, the New York Times, Salon, Slate and many other publications. He also writes a popular stock market column for Investor's Business Daily and offers analysis on everything from college basketball to politics on his website, JonahKeri.com.
Jonah, thanks for taking the time answer some questions.
Reid Brignac
has regressed offensively since his breakout performance in the
California League back in 2006. Brignac finished with a sub-.300 OBP in
his Triple-A debut but has made strides defensively. How does he
compare defensively to Jason Bartlett,
and does he have a chance to win the job in camp? Or is there any
chance that the Rays would deal him this winter, under the impression
that Bartlett could man the position until Tim Beckham is ready down the road?
JK: I
have no inside knowledge on this front per se, but I could see the Rays
dealing Brignac, yes. Andrew Friedman is always looking for value. So
whether or not they trade Brignac could depend on whether teams see the
Cal League stats and improved defense or focus on the offensive
regression of the past couple years. If they keep Brignac, I imagine
they'll stick with Bartlett for his defense.
With David Price set to crack the rotation, who do you think will be the odd man out? According to this data, Andy Sonnanstine
was considerably more valuable than many people gave him credit for in
2008. With that being said, he seems like the best bet to stay.
However, would Edwin Jackson,
because of his stuff, bring in more value in return if he is traded? If
you had to bet, which pitcher is more likely to be dealt?
JK: Again,
I think it will come down to value. If teams are willing to shell out
more for Sonnanstine, he could be dealt. If Jackson can fetch more, he
might go. I think Jackson would work well in a bullpen role too, so
that could be another option. I'd like to see the Rays see if they
could get a true impact bat for Scott Kazmir. But it's rare that we see that kind of blockbuster deal. Then again, the Delmon Young deal was a shocker when it happened.
Jeff Niemann
is unlikely to ever emerge as a front-line stud at this point, but
would be ranked a lot higher in another organization without so much
pitching depth. Out of options, where do you see him at this point next
offseason?
JK: Another
good bullpen candidate. Someone who throws that hard coming downhill
with his height...if they just slot Niemann in the pen and stop
shuttling him back and forth, he could be a good, cheap option.
Will Mitch Talbot earn a spot in the Rays' bullpen in 2009?
JK: Another
who'd be worth a shot. That's the beauty of having so much
organizational pitching depth, of course. There's no need to hand out a
three-year contract to some random veteran. Save a few million here and
a few million there with equivalent talent, and suddenly you've got the
cash to, say, buy out David Price's arbitration years in 2010.
The
Rays excelled at run prevention in 2008, ranking first in defensive
efficiency. What steps will they take, if any, to prevent a regression
on this front?
JK: The
infield is the strength of the defense, and the Rays are going to bring
everyone back there. There's a good chance the team will add a new
right fielder. Going after a player who can hit without hurting the
defense would help on that front, obviously. That means stay far, far
away from Raul Ibanez, for example.
The
Boston Red Sox will be back, the New York Yankees seemingly have the
chance to sign every big-name free-agent pitcher this offseason and the
Toronto Blue Jays return some excellent pitching. Is it possible for
the Rays to be even stronger next year, yet still miss out on the
playoffs?
JK: Most
definitely. The AL East won't stop being a tough division any team
soon. The Baltimore Orioles are going to improve too, as prospects like
Matt Wieters, Chris Tillman et al come up.
If you could choose between Price and Wieters, who would you take?
JK: Wieters. Much less risk of injury and much more predictable performance for position players than pitchers.
Bartlett
received a fifth-place vote for A.L. M.V.P., and even was selected as
the Rays' Team M.V.P. by the local chapter of the BBWAA. What is wrong
with that picture?
JK: Well
plenty, of course. I don't want to take anything away from Bartlett,
who was a huge defensive upgrade. Let's just say there were plenty of
better MVP candidates. Several on his own team, in fact.
Andrew Friedman has a great track record of exploiting inefficiencies, having found several sleepers like Eric Hinske and Carlos Pena
on the cheap in the recent past. With a handful of players due for
raises in arbitration and little money to work with, do you have any
predictions for what Friedman will do this winter?
JK: I
expect the payroll to go up somewhat, given the team likely surpassed
its revenue projections for 2008 with its playoff run, and that they're
well positioned to contend again in '09. Using internal options for the
bullpen would be a good way to defray some of the raises that other
players are getting. I do think a Kazmir deal could make some sense,
especially if it's for a younger, less expensive, but still talented
hitter.
Did Chuck LaMar receive too much credit for the Rays' success during the postseason coverage?
JK: I
think he received the right amount of coverage. The focus was mostly on
Andrew Friedman, Matt Silverman and Stu Sternberg. Vince Naimoli, Chuck
LaMar made plenty of mistakes during their respective tenures. But the
old regime did make some contributions to the team that became the '08
Rays. Seemed reasonable to save at least some credit for them.
Do you think B.J. Upton would ever consider signing a similar deal to Evan Longoria, or is he more likely to go year-to-year until free agency?
JK: Well
the dollar amounts would be much higher for Upton of course, since he's
a fair bit further along on the service time clock than Longoria was
when he signed. I imagine Upton will take the best deal available to
him. If the Rays make a big, multi-year deal, I'd imagine he's strongly
consider it. If the Rays opt not to extend a lucrative long-term offer,
Upton will do fine year-to-year.
Has Carl Crawford
reached his peak as a player, barring an improvement in his approach on
on-base skills? Do you foresee a bounceback when he is fully healthy in
'09?
JK: I
could see a power spike. He's 27, at a stage in his career where you
should expect a small, but gradual erosion in speed. Players of that
age, assuming health, do often see power spikes. The biggest level of
upside would be an improved batting eye. If Crawford learns to take
more pitches, both to work walks and to find pitches to hit in
favorable counts, everyone benefits.
Do you think Tampa Bay fans will get to see Wade Davis at some point next year?
JK: I
do. How much he's involved will depend on the health of the Rays'
pitchers. If everyone's healthy and producing, we might be talking
about just a September cup of coffee for Davis--or possibly a David
Price-style call-up where they get him on the roster before Sept. 1 as
a prelude to a possible spot on the playoff roster.
Since Rocco Baldelli
cannot play back-to-back days in the outfield due to his mitochondrial
disorder, would it be an unwise decision for Tampa Bay to make him a
serious offer and give him a roster spot?
JK: Depends
on price, of course. He's a free agent so he can go anywhere he likes.
If other teams value him as anything close to the future star he was
once thought to be, I imagine the Rays will pass. If teams balk because
of Baldelli's health, a contract loaded with playing time and
performance incentives would make sense.
Thanks for answering the questions, Jonah.
For
those who have not read BBTN, I encourage you to do so. It will change
the way you look at the game forever. Also, Keri recently finished the Page 2 guide to MLB Free Agency, which you don't want to miss.
To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com
Since I do not really want to focus on a particular subject right now, I am going to pull a Mark Kriegel, focusing on various random topics in the baseball world.
—According to Jon Heyman of SI.com, the New York Yankees want to sign at least two of the three premier free agent starting pitchers on the market—A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe and CC Sabathia.
Although Sabathia has said that money will not be the ultimate factor that drives a decision for him, I have a difficult time taking him at his word. Sabathia has said all the right things to the local Milwaukee media, but he is going to follow the money. And, since the Yankees have unlimited financial resources to work with (especially when moving into a new ballpark), there is no team that can match them in a bidding war. Also, Sabathia recently shot down the rumors that he is interested in returning to California. He certainly could end up in a number of other potential cities, but New York—with the Mets as a slim possibility—seems like the best bet.
Lowe, a Scott Boras client, has had a nice season for the Los Angeles Dodgers, posting a 3.24 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 34 starts. Using his excellent sinkerball, the 35-year-old right-hander went 7-3 with a 2.38 mark after the All-Star break, limiting hitters to a .226 batting average in 87.0 innings. He has also pitched well in the postseason to this point, picking the right time, for Boras and his bank account, to find his groove on the mound.
Burnett has not told the Toronto Blue Jays if he will opt out of his contract—yet. Odds are, though, this will happen fairly soon, leaving him as a realistic option for Brian Cashman and the Yankees. He won 18 games in Toronto in 2008, but posted a higher ERA (4.07) than his career average (3.81). The 31-year-old right-hander is also always an injury threat, but can miss bats as well as anyone in the business—231 Ks in 221.1 innings pitched. If I were a betting man, I would say that he will be pitching in the Pinstripes next year alongside Sabathia, not Lowe.
—The Chicago Cubs picked up the option on Rich Harden’s contact yesterday. This was the right decision by the Cubs. While Harden is always at risk of injury, he is a dominant pitcher when he is healthy enough to pitch. Since coming over to Chicago in a midseason trade with the Oakland Athletics, he posted a 1.77 ERA while striking out 89 in 71.0 innings pitched. Jim Hendry was not left with a lot of time to make a decision, sure, but he made the right choice—a recent test showed that he had no structural damage in his right shoulder.
Stay away, Troy.
—There is a lot of talk about whether or not Troy Percival will be put on the Tampa Bay Rays’ ALCS roster. Well, if it were up to me, I would say, no. Percival is a veteran who has World Series experience, two factors which have led several mainstream analysts and writers to talk about how he is an essential piece to the puzzle and needs to be on the roster. To their credit, he certainly has had a tremendous positive impact on several of the Rays’ young talented arms, all while helping to instill a culture of winning in the clubhouse. However, based on his performance in the second half—6.11 post-All-Star break ERA, 16 walks in 17.2 innings pitched—and an obvious decline in his command and stuff, Joe Maddon can no longer trust him with a lead late in the game. Period.
The closer-by-committee group of Grant Balfour, who throws absolute smoke, Chad Bradford, one of the best groundball specialists in the games who practically never surrenders home runs, and Dan Wheeler has a better chance of getting the job done in the ninth inning with the game on the line. So, whoever says that this relief method does not work, think again—talent is the secret ingredient, though.
So while the talking heads will give the bullpen advantage to Boston, which does have a better pure closer in Jonathan Papelbon, not having a healthy Percival is not that big of a deal. Even if the veteran righty is healthy, he does not deserve to be pitching important innings at this stage of the season.
Picks for the upcoming series—
Although anything can happen in a short series, I will offer up my picks for the upcoming LCS in each league.
American League—
Throw the experience argument out the window right now. Despite what they say on TBS, the Rays will not be intimidated by the Red Sox. It really comes down to talent more than anything else, but all of the talk about heart and such makes for a more compelling story to some journalists.
If Tampa Bay could not handle the pressure, though, would they have won the AL East? Every time these two teams met up in the regular season, it seems, the same stories would show up about how the young, pesky Rays would fade under the pressure.
Well, they did not, outlasting the Red Sox to win baseball’s most competitive division.
With that being said, too many people are also focusing on how the Rays won the regular season series, 10-8. Well, throw that argument out the window, too. This time last week, everybody in the media was talking about how the Los Angeles Angels dominated Boston all year as well, and look how that series turned out.
One thing is for sure, though. These teams have battled it out all year, and it is going to be an exciting series.
Boston has the better offense, in my opinion, and are always a threat to hang up a 13-spot like they did off of Scott Kazmir in September. They led the league with a .358 on-base percentage, meaning that they will force Tampa Bay pitchers to throw strikes. And they have so many guys—from MVP candidates Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilus to Big Papi—who can cause tremendous damage with one swing of the bat.
But the Rays’ pitching staff has shown that they are up to the challenge. James “Big Game” Shields will start Game 1 like he did in the Division Series. Shields is likely to last until at least the seventh inning, which will be good for his bullpen with Scott Kazmir—who labors and has had trouble making it through five lately—taking the hill in Game 2. If he can turn in a quality start—perhaps similar to his complete game shutout against Boston back in April—and the Rays can jump out to an early series lead, they may never look back.
Daisuke Matsusaka, similar to Kazmir, has not been efficient with his pitches. The Rays need to make him throw strikes, showing sound plate discipline, because when he does throw it over the plate, he is tough to hit (lowest opponents’ batting average in the majors).
The other pitching matchups are equally as intriguing. Which Kazmir will show up? The guy who was so dominant in June and July or post-All-Star break Kaz?
Jon Lester has been excellent in the postseason, and has really emerged as a frontline starter. Lester, in fact, seems to be the ace of the Boston staff right now. It will be tough for Tampa Bay to scrape runs across against him. Ditto for Josh Beckett, who had a down year but is still one of the best big-game pitchers in the game.
Matt Garza, though, can shut any offense down on any given night in his own right.
All-in-all, the pitching matchups seem pretty even—though Andy Sonnanstine is a better fourth option than Tim Wakefield.
The Rays have the better defense—having converted more balls put into play into outs than any other team in the majors—and I think the edge in bullpen.
So, while anything can happen (cannot stress this enough), I choose the Rays if they can continue to throw strikes, catch the ball and get the timely hits, from nearly everyone on the roster, like they have been doing all along.
The key for them, though, is to get into the Boston bullpen early and often. Papelbon is lights out, but the link to the controversial closer has been a problem at times. Manny Declaremen and Justin Masterson have helped a great deal in the second half, but the Rays will have an easier time scoring runs off the likes of Mike Timlin than a Beckett or Dice-K or Lester.
Another X factor to be considered is homefield advantage. Both the Rays and Red Sox are much better at home than on the road. Tropicana Field has been kryptonite for Boston in ’08, albeit in a small sample size, and the Rays had the majors’ best record at home. Still, the Red Sox were not too far behind, as they love playing in front of the hometown crowd at Fenway Park—a tough environment to play in for an opposing team.
Since the series starts at the Trop, where the Rays are 20-2 in games with 30,000-plus fans in attendance (the cowbell effect), they have the edge in this regard. But, though they took two out of three at Fenway in September, winning at least one game on the road will be quite a challenge.
It is going to be exciting, but, due to all of the factors and my tremendous bias for the new pride of St. Pete (though my cousin plays in the Red Sox organization), I am going with the Rays. In seven.
National League—
I am a bit lazy to make a case right now, after going on a seemingly endless tangent about the ALCS, but I think the Philadelphia Phillies will take the cake in the series.
Cole Hamels is a stud, though he does not have the mid-90s heat. Brad Lidge has been a stud all year, having converted 41 saves in 41 tries. And the Phillies also have a number of great relievers to bridge the gap to Lidge.
Plus, Ryan Howard has been on an insane tear since September. Howard, the NL leader in homers and RBIs, has posted a ridiculous .1000-plus OPS over the past 30 games, picking the right time to get hot while doing enough in 30 days to enter the MVP conversation.
Pat Burrell can mash as well. Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins do a nice job of setting the table. And, in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, they are going to score some runs.
Sinkerball pitcher Lowe will negate some of that, but I like the Phils at home, and see them taking at least one game in Los Angeles.
Manny Ramirez is on fire, too, Rafael Furcal is back, the Dodgers’ pitching has been excellent and the matchups favor the flavor of the month in the NL. But I am not buying into them yet.
Sure,they made fools out of the best team in the NL last week, and Man-Ram is playing on a whole other level. The Phillies, however, were the better team all year, in a tougher division.
Grant
Paulsen, who has been an accredited member of the national media since
he was a teenager, has already made his mark in the broadcasting
industry although he has yet to graduate from college and is not old
enough to legally drink in this country. Paulsen, 20, is perhaps the
Jay Bruce of sports journalism, having covered the Little League World
Series and Super Bowl for ABC Sports on several occasions. He has also
appeared on the David Letterman show six times. A student at George
Mason University in Virginia, he is currently the host of Minors and Majors, a two-hour weekly show focusing on Major League Baseball and its minor league prospects on XM Radio.
Grant
recently offered his opinions about the latest news and notes around
the league in an interview with Tyler Hissey for Scout.com.
TH:
Grant, thanks for finding the time to answer some questions about all
that is going on in the Major League Baseball season. Let’s get to it.
The Los Angeles Angels
are one of the best run-prevention clubs in the game, with an excellent
defense and pitching staff. The Angels also have a strong bullpen led
by K-Rod, who is on pace to set the single-season saves record. The
offensive situation, on the other hand, has been a cause for concern,
and the addition of switch-hitting slugger Mark Teixeira will undoubtedly help add another impact bat to protect Vladimir Guerrero. Does the trade make Los Angeles the favorite to win the AL?
Grant:
Adding Mark Teixeira was monumental for the Angels. They desperately
needed a bat - and preferably a big one - and they got it when they
traded for him. Their deep pitching staff, ranked eighth in all of
baseball, gives them a chance to win each night, and they are a top-10
team defensively as well. The only area in which they needed to upgrade
was at the plate, and in getting Teixeira they were able to add power
to a lineup that has hit 49 fewer home-runs than teams like the Marlins
and Phillies have this season.
Even if Teixeira proves to be
only a late-season rental, which I think could very well be the case, I
won't disagree for a moment with what the Angels decided to do. He is a
career .285 hitter who can hit his club 35-homers a season and play a
terrific first base. With a team like Los Angeles for the long-haul I could see Tex becoming an annual MVP candidate in the American League. They gave up Casey Kotchman,
who is a nice enough major leaguer, and a decent relief pitching
prospect in hard-throwing righty Stephen Marek. But they got a guy back
who makes them the number-one contender for the title (if I can use a
wrestling term). That's what the Angels are now. They are the top
contender in the AL, and I would be surprised if they aren't in the ALCS.
TH: The Braves certainly went for it all last year, giving up a promising package of prospects—including Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison
and Jarrod Saltalamacchia—to make a run. However, they finished further
out of the division than they were at the time of the acquisition, even
though Teixeira put up some monster numbers down the stretch. In
Kotchman and Marek, GM Frank Wren got about as much as he could have at
this point, certainly more than the club would have received had it
waited for the compensation picks. Still, it seems, they were burned in
the long run. Do you agree? Will teams use this as a lesson before
making similar deals at the deadline?
Grant: I
think that teams might. I've always felt like GMs should ask themselves
only one question before giving up multiple prospects who could
eventually help their club for just one veteran major leaguer. If he
(the guy they are trading for) comes over and plays like an MVP, can we
win the World Series? If the answer is yes, then I am okay with those
trades. If the answer is no, then I don't like the idea. Especially if
a team is just renting a guy like the Braves were with Teixeira last
year, and like the Brewers are this year with CC Sabathia. I didn't
like the Teixeira deal last year, and I wasn't a huge fan of the
Sabathia deal. If he pitches them into the playoffs, though, I will be
okay with the fact that they parted with future All-Star Matt LaPorta.
TH: On an off note, what are the odds that some Angles fans make another Teixeira tribute video on YouTube?
Grant:
I feel like another video is coming soon. From the same guys who
brought us Mark Teixeira I, comes a second and even more epic offering!
Haha. Perhaps the release date will be set for some time in late
October.
TH: As of this writing, David Price
is 9-0 combined between the Single-A Vero Beach and Double-A
Montgomery. Do you see Price making an impact this season? If so, do
you think he will turn into this year's version of Joba Chamberlain, coming out of the bullpen, or will he crack the Tampa Bay rotation should Edwin Jackson or Andy Sonnanstine falter?
David Price (AP)
Grant:
Price is a stud. The guy is going to be 23 later on this month and he
could have been getting big league hitters out as of halfway through
his final college season at Vanderbilt
a year ago. He popped at 99 in his first outing as a pro during spring
training this season, and his breaking pitches are already big-league
ready. He's going to be a star front-line arm for many years to come,
and I could see him and Scott Kazmir being the game's top one-two punch in baseball in a couple years.
With that all said, I think that he will be used in the bullpen down the stretch this season. That will be the best way for Tampa Bay
to get his feet wet against major league hitters. He also had a minor
arm injury earlier this spring, which could make the Rays want to pitch
him out of the pen as a way of keeping his innings count down a little
more efficiently, all while still trying to get production out of his
electric arm.
If he is used out of the pen, I could see him
performing a lot like Joba Chamberlain did last season. His 2007
efforts were something of a once-in-a-decade time promotion, but if
anybody could duplicate that type of start to a career, I think Price
is that guy. I could see Price repeating that type of dominance down
the stretch. He could fortify an already much-improved bullpen and be a
big lift for Tampa Bay
down the stretch. Unfortunately for the Rays, though, he isn't going to
help them hit any better, which is the only phase of the game that they
aren't very consistent with.
TH: I recently wrote a contenders piece for the American League. Which four teams from the league do you see making it to the postseason and why?
Mark Teixeira (AP)
Grant: At
this moment I have the Angels, Red Sox, and White Sox winning the West,
East, and Central, respectively. I rank them in that order because that
is the order of my confidence in each of those teams to capture a
division crown.
The Angels, with the acquisition of Teixeira and the re-emergence of Ervin Santana as a front-line arm, are my pick to represent the AL in the World Series.
I think Boston is better today than it was a week or two ago as well, though. Jason Bay will give them everything Manny Ramirez
did offensively, more defensively, and he'll do it all without creating
any problems or causing any headaches for his new coaching staff. I
think that Jed Lowrie is an upgrade for them at shortstop as well, and I could see him becoming Boston's Dustin Pedroia of this year in the next couple of months.
The
other kind of Sox get terrific pitching and have more power bats than
they know what to do with. I just don't know how much I trust some of
the unproven arms in that rotation (John Danks and Gavin Floyd among them) down the stretch. Getting Ken Griffey Jr. should provide them with a nice boost, though.
My
wild card pick right now is the Rays. They have a deep enough rotation
to win any series they play in, they play great defense and they can
manufacture enough runs - as the AL leaders in thefts - to mask their
anemic team batting average.
TH: Personally, going by their poor run prevention (inexperienced pitching staff and bad infield defense), I do not see the Florida Marlins making the playoffs out of the NL East. They have a negative run differential after all, and, though the Arizona Diamondbacks
made it to the playoffs after scoring fewer runs than their opponents
last fall, I just do not think it is in the cards for the Fish. Do you
agree? If so, who do you think will come out the East?
Grant:
I agree with you on the Marlins. The peripherals just don't add up to
them being a playoff participant (but don't tell the 2007 Diamondbacks
that). The best thing about the Marlins is that they aren't supposed to
win right now. They are loaded for the future, thanks largely to the Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis trade this offseason, and they were able to hang on to most of their top prospects at the trade deadline. I'm a Gaby Sanchez
guy, but he projects more as a backend-arm than an ace, and he was the
only major subtraction from their future core. I think they could keep
playing on the plus side of .500, but I don’t' see them doing much more
than that the rest of the way. Then again, I didn't see them competing
at all this year, so what do I know?
TH: There has certainly been a lot of attention centering around the Milwaukee Brewers’ acquisition of CC Sabathia, though the Brett Favre drama has taken away some of its thunder. Sabathia has energized that clubhouse, adds a legitimate ace alongside Ben Sheets at the top of the staff and is now the best-hitting pitcher in the league with Micah Owings’
demotion to the minors. With that being said, do you think the Brewers
will make the postseason for the first time since the Robin Yount era?
Grant:
The Brewers are my current pick to win the National League's wild card.
Sabathia is one of those guys who can go seven-innings and give his
team a chance to win on a bad night. That's the mark of a true ace, and
he's proven to be just that over the years. He might be baseball's best
pitcher if he ever played an entire season in the NL. The big fella
would just be dominant. And Ned Yost will not have to pull him out of
games for a pinch hitter, because he's proven that he can wield the
wood.
Milwaukee is a better team than St. Louis and Florida, and they are better than any of the clubs in the NL West. With that said, they'll be contending with either Philadelphia or New York
(whoever doesn't win the East) for the wild-card spot, at least in my
insignificant and probably inaccurate projection. I think they stack up
well with either of those two teams. The bottom line is that they had
better get to the playoffs. If they don't, then I really don't like the
trade at all. If they do I wouldn't be shocked at all if they got to
the World Series, considering that they would have Sheets and Sabathia
to throw at teams back-to-back. But they have to get there first, and
in order to do that they need to start playing better defense (they are
11th in the NL in fielding percentage).
TH: Before we end the interview, give us the names of a few prospects to look for when rosters expand in September.
Grant:
Dave Price is the main guy to look out for. He could very well change
the American League East landscape, not just this season but over the
next several years.
In addition to him, the guy I am most excited about seeing is Andrew McCutchen in Pittsburgh. He's going to get a chance at some point in August, or maybe September, to roam the outfield at PNC Park. He's got more tools than Tim Allen and he's been making his way up through the ranks in a "Jay Bruce"
kind of way since the two were drafted real close to each other out of
high school back in 2005. I can't wait to see what he does in his first
dose of action with the Pirates. He's an electrifying talent who can
contribute in a plethora of different ways and baseball fans in the Steel City are in for a treat.
Cameron Maybin is another guy I want to get another look at. I liked what I saw from him in Detroit
last season, but I didn't get enough of him. Maybin getting sent to
Double-A this year was like dangling candy in front of me and telling
me I couldn't have it.
Matt LaPorta and Travis Snider could both also get late-season calls in Cleveland and in Toronto,
respectively. I'd be giddy to get a first-glimpse of either of those
two slugging outfielders in 2008. Both project as lineup-altering
boppers and each should one day find their way onto an All-Star team.
TH: Thanks for taking the time out of your busy schedule, Grant. Keep up the excellent work on XM Radio.
For more info on Grant and his work on XM radio, click here.
Matt Garza was charged with a difficult task on Tuesday night.
Garza was given the ball for the Tampa Bay Rays against one of the best starting pitchers in the league, Roy Halladay, looking to help his team find a cure for its road woes against the Toronto Blue Jays.
It is safe to say that he was up for the challenge.
The
young right-hander pitched his first career complete game shutout, scattering
five hits in nine stellar innings to lead the Rays to a 3-0 win. He
even outlasted Halladay, the majors’ leader in complete games who
suffered the loss after giving up all three runs in eight innings. He
struck out five while walking only one, relying on the Rays’ excellent
defense, which turned three double plays behind him.
Garza, acquired in the Delmon Young
deal this offseason, has been a tremendous addition to the Tampa Bay
pitching staff, emerging as a legitimate number three starter in this
league. With the victory, he is now 9-6 with a 3.56 ERA and 85-to-39
K/W ratio. The 26-year-old picked up a win his last outing, on July 19,
as well, fittingly against Toronto. He pitched 7.2 shutout innings of two-hit ball that night, again shutting down one of the majors’ worst offensive teams.
As
much as the Rays have struggled to score runs at times on their own, it
is amazing how well they have done against Halladay, beating him on
three different occasions. The Toronto ace came into the game ranked
first in the league with seven complete games and 163.1 innings
pitched, in addition to having posted the third-lowest ERA (2.81) in
the AL. The throwback right-hander, among the only pitchers left out
there who consistently lasts more than six innings in nearly every
start, also lost to Tampa Bay on July 19, when the Rays roughed him up for five earned runs.
Eric Hinske led the way offensively, hitting his 15th home run of the year off of Halladay in the third inning to give his team a 1-0 lead. Hinske, the AL Rookie of the Year in Toronto back in 2002, continued to hear the boos from the Toronto crowd before being lifted for defensive replacement Gabe Gross.
Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford,
who has struggled to get it going this year, each hit triples.
Crawford, who was recently moved to the three spot in the Rays’ lineup
due to his poor on-base percentage, finished 2-for-4 with a run scored.
The Rays will need him to pick it up
the rest of the way, as he currently has the second-lowest OPS total
among all qualifying players at the left field position in the majors.
Longoria
drove in the other two runs for Tampa Bay, adding insurance with his
two-run triple in the eighth inning. The current favorite for Rookie of
the Year, he now has 63 RBIs this season.
Garza was the story, though, as he continues to make fans forget about Young. Along with Scott Kazmir and James Shields,
many with the industry feel, he helps round out one of the strongest
pitching trios in the game. He certainly showed why on this night.
Update: Tampa Bay is now 62-44, two games up in the East, with a Boston Red Sox loss. Boston dropped its second consecutive game to the Los Angeles Angels, 6-2. The Angels acquired Mark Teixeira from the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday, adding the impact bat that they need to truly make a run at a title.
The American League East, featuring the sport’s financial superpowers, is undoubtedly the premier division in all of baseball. The Boston Red Sox, with two titles in the past four seasons, are now the game’s model franchise.
Under the guidance of progressive owner John Henry and general manager Theo Epstein, it appears as if the tremendous success is only beginning in Boston. Following the end of the media-driven Curse of the Bambino, the organization has put numerous financial resources into its focus on the amateur draft and player development, which has replenished the Red Sox’s farm system. In addition, Boston places a strong emphasis on statistical analysis, helping its front office make baseball-related decisions relying on objective facts. Essentially, the club has struck the right balance in the scouting/stats equation, as Epstein and his staff attempt to get their hands on as much information as possible before pulling the trigger on any deal.
New York has the luxury of being able to make inefficient-payroll decisions. While several small-market franchises bear more risk when tying up millions into individual players over the long-term, the Yankees always have the ability to reload when a Carl Pavano situation arises. The Yankees represent a powerful International brand and sell out Yankee Stadium nearly every night. Plus, with a state-of-the-art new ballpark set to open in New York next spring, the unprecedented revenue stream is not expected to stop anytime soon.
Thus, even with revenue sharing, the Yankees will always have a tremendous advantage when constructing a roster while other organizations could never sustain this level of spending over an extended time period. With the Steinbrenner family, of course, rebuilding is never really an option for a club whose fans expect a World Series title every year.
Making things more complicated, the remaining three teams in the division—with the exception of the Tampa Bay Rays prior to the Stuart Sternberg era—are not too shabby, either.
The Toronto Blue Jays have had a lock on third place in the division ever since Boston emerged as a powerful brand in its own right. Toronto currently has an excellent starting rotation, but its offense is among the worst in the league. Still, if placed in the inferior National League, the Blue Jays would be in the postseason mix.
Peter Angelos repeatedly refused to rebuild the Baltimore Orioles franchise after a decade of mediocrity. Angelos has finally seen the light now, and Baltimore is putting its eggs into the right basket, focusing on improving from within through adding depth to its farm system. While the Orioles have exceeded all expectations in 2008, they are still a few years away from reaping the benefits of the rebuilding effort. Regardless, it is a good start.
Tampa Bay has a savvy front office as well. The Rays are one of the best stories of the year, awakening from a 10-year slumber to post the highest winning percentage in the majors in the first half. With Sternberg and his young management staff—even though their vision for constructing a waterfront stadium in downtown St. Petersburg has been put on hold—the recent success is no fluke. Tampa Bay, in fact, has locked up several of the premier youngsters in the league, including Scott Kazmir, Evan Longoria and James Shields, and is stocked with talented arms down on the farm. Therefore, the days of Tampa Bay serving as the division doormat appear to be over for good.
With two teams on the rise in Baltimore and Tampa Bay, and two teams that generate tremendous revenues, the American League East is only going to get tougher. If the Rays' young talent flourishes as expected when it reaches the next level, the battle for first place in the East is going to be exciting to watch.
The dog days of summer are fast approaching in the 2008 Major League Baseball season.
With only 60 games left on the docket, around half of the
majors’ 30 teams are in striking distance in their respective division.
Granted, this total includes nearly every club from the National League
West, where the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers are tied for the division lead despite sub-.500 records.
So, which teams are legitimate contenders? In the first edition
of a two-part series, here are my contender and pretender picks in the
American League.
American League East:
In 2008, the division has three contenders, all of which would be running away with the thing if placed in the NL East.
Boston Red Sox: Contenders—
The Red Sox had a tough weekend, watching their division lead disappear after struggling to do anything offensively against the Los Angeles Angels. To make matters worse, the “Manny Being Manny” antics have taken on a whole new meaning.
Regardless, Boston is still the favorite to take the division crown. Even without the presence of David Ortiz,
the Red Sox have scored runs in bunches, having posted the
third-highest runs total (503) in the majors through July 21. The club
also ranks second in batting average (.280), on-base percentage (.355),
slugging percentage (.448) and OPS (.804), trailing only the Texas Rangers by small margins in nearly every category.
When Ortiz returns and if Jason Varitek, sitting below replacement-level right now, can regain anywhere near his normal level of production, look out.
J.D. Drew,
who was named the Most Valuable Player at the All-Star game in New
York, has been invaluable since Ortiz went on the disabled list. Drew
has posted a slash stats line of .294/.406/.557 with 17 homers and 55
RBIs while sitting among AL leaders with a .963 OPS.
However, there is some concern about Ramirez, who allegedly struck out on purpose in an at-bat against Mariano Rivera
in New York a few weeks back. This was reportedly a reaction to the
six-figure fine that he received for pushing a longtime club employee
after his unusual, last-minute request for tickets. Henry’s patience is
wearing thin with the slugger for accusing the organization of being
dishonest in contract negotiations as well.
All things considered, it might be in the organization’s best
interest to wash its hands of Ramirez after the season, as he enters
the decline stages of his career. With stricter testing policies for
performance-enhancing drugs, players are not aging as well as they did
back at the turn of the century. This makes it unlikely that he will
sustain his consistent .950-OPS level of production as he inches closer
to age 40.
Boston needs Ramirez now, though. So the chance that he becomes
a distraction while losing his focus as a hitter is a real cause for
concern. Off-field-issues aside, he has been productive yet again
through this month, hitting .297/.397/.531 with 19 home runs and 62
RBIs to help pick up the slack while the lineup was without Ortiz.
Boston is also one of the strongest teams in the league when it
comes to run prevention, with a strong starting rotation and the
sixth-highest defensive efficiency rating in the majors. Clearly, then,
it is not a surprise that the club has the largest run differential,
+77, in the American League.
There are some concerns with in the bullpen, as the link to closer Jonathan Papelbon has not had its ups and downs. But with such a deep pitching staff—Daisuke Matsuzaka,
10-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 77-to-16 K/W ratio leads the way, though he
has not been efficient enough with his pitches—and potent offense, the
Red Sox are not only contenders, they are in position to make a deep
run in October.
It is never a wise move to bet against the Yankees.
New York has won seven of its last 10 games to move within five
games of first-place Tampa Bay. Considering where the Yankees were in
May—as they were in ’07 as well—this is no small feat.
Brian Cashman and the club gambled on a pair of youngsters to carry the Yankees’ starting rotation, right-handers Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. The experiment has not gone according to plan, however.
Hughes, who is still projected to turn into a potential
front-end starter, turned in six relatively ineffective starts before
going on the disabled list with a strained oblique and cracked rib.
Kennedy’s struggles, on the other hand, have prompted questions
about whether or not he was as promising as the organization let on.
Drafted out of the University of Southern California in ’06, he has
posted excellent statistics in his professional career, but his fringe
stuff leaves little room for error when his command is off.
To make matters worse, ace Chien Ming-Wang is out until
September after injuring himself running the bases in Interleague Play.
Wang, the majors’ winnignest pitcher the previous two seasons, has used
his heavy sinker to induce ground ball outs at the top of the New York
staff. The loss of the right-hander, who was 8-2 with a 4.07 ERA before
hitting the DL, created a hole, which prompted New York to offer a
contract to Sidney Ponson.
Luckily, Mike Mussina
has been a pleasant surprise, going 12-6 with a 3.49 ERA in his first
20 starts. Mussina was perhaps snubbed from the All-Star game, but will
he be able to maintain his performance or will he regress back to the
mean?
Joba Chamberlain
has provided a boost as well, moving from the eighth-inning role to
return to his original status as a starter. As excellent of a setup-man
as Chamberlain was, he adds more value in his new role, especially
considering the alternatives. He will help hold down the fort until
Wang returns should Mussina and Ponson falter.
Then there is Mariano Rivera, who is enjoying one of the finest
seasons of his career. Rivera has yet to blow a save in 24 chances,
posting 1.22 ERA, K/9 of 10.76 and 0.68 WHIP. When the Yankees have a
lead entering the ninth inning, the game is essentially over.
New York pitchers, though, have not exactly received a boost
from their defense behind them. In fact, the Yankees rank 24th in the
majors in defensive efficiency, as the arms have made more of an impact
in the run prevention equation in the Bronx.
Offensively, the Yankees—despite a lack of production from Robinson Cano and replacement-level center fielder Melky Cabrera—have plenty of firepower. The early-season struggles were more of a result than injuries to players like Alex Rodriguez than anything else.
When healthy, Rodriguez has been a force, hitting 20 homers with a .975 OPS despite a plethora of off-the-field distractions. Jason Giambi
helped carry the lineup when A-Rod and a few of his teammates were on
the shelf. Giambi, in fact, nearly missed making the All-Star game,
recovering from a poor first month to solidify the middle of the New
York batting order.
Although Cano needs to improve his approach, the sweet-swinging
second baseman always turns it on in the second half. Look for him to
pick it up—his .676 OPS is among the lowest marks at his position in
the league—down the stretch.
Derek Jeter
is a polarizing player, as many analysts think that his defense at
shortstop is a major crutch to his team. Jeter has not been himself at
the plate, either, so far, frequently grounding into rally-killing
double plays. Also, his .282/.347/.392 line is not up to par by Jeter
standards, but it would not be a surprise to see him improve the rest
of the way as well.
It does not help that left fielder Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada, sent to the disabled list on Monday, are out indefinitely.
If the double-play duo can get it going, coinciding with a return of Johnny Damon
and a potential deal for another impact bat—Richie Sexson, though he
may help against lefties, is not going to cut it—at the deadline, the
Yankees’ postseason run may not be in jeopardy after all, most likely
via the Wild Card.
Tampa Bay Rays: Contenders—
The Tampa Bay Rays’ success has been one of the surprise stories
in Major League Baseball. Tampa Bay, which has never won more than 70
games in a single season, is currently leading the division, at 57-40.
Regardless of their pre-break slide, the Rays are still a legitimate contender, backed by their excellent defense.
While the club has made its fair share of errors in the month of
July, it still ranks second in the majors in defensive efficiency
rating—the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs.
One of the most underrated aspects of its turnaround, Tampa Bay has
made marked improvements defensively as a team.
Every Tampa Bay pitcher—from ace Kazmir, the winning pitcher in the All-Star game, to reliever J.P. Howell—has reaped the benefits.
The pitching staff has seen a major upgrade as well.
Matt Garza,
Kazmir and Shields are a tough group to face in short series.
Shields, however, is the eldest starting pitcher in the Rays’ rotation,
at 26 years old. This has caused some writers to pull out the
inexperience card, which is definitely a legitimate factor. Perhaps
most concerning, though, the majority of Tampa Bay starters are rapidly
approaching upon career-high totals in innings pitched. Whether or not
the youngsters’ arms can hold up is a huge question mark for Tampa Bay.
If any of young pitchers in the Tampa Bay rotation should
falter or go down with an injury, the club does have internal
reinforcements down on the farm. Jeff Niemann, who made his major league debut in April, is an option. Not to mention, the potential is there for Tampa Bay to call up David Price,
the top pitching prospect in the minors. Price, now in Double-A, has
been dominant in his first professional season, going 8-0 with a 1.92
ERA and 62-to-17 K/W ratio in 11 combined starts between Single-A Vero
Beach and Double-A Montgomery. Selected by Tampa Bay with the number
one overall pick out of Vanderbilt University in the '07 draft, the southpaw will perhaps turn into this year's version of Joba Chamberlain.
The Rays’ relief corps has been more effective as well. This
rings especially true when compared to the '07 group, featuring the
likes of Shawn Camp and Brian Stokes, which posted the highest bullpen ERA in the past half century.
Offensively, though, Tampa Bay finds itself in the middle of the
pack, as it headed into the All-Star break sitting 10th in the majors
in on-base percentage (.336), 13th in OPS (.745) and 15th in runs
scored, batting average (.260) and slugging percentage (.409).
This is why the Rays have staying power down the stretch, as
many players should post improved individual statistics in the second
half. Tampa Bay, though, needs its position player stars, from Carl Crawford to Carlos Pena, to improve the rest of the way.
Tampa Bay is much better at home than on the road, with a 19-25
record away from Tropicana Field. The club will need to prove that it
can win on the road, especially in places like Fenway Park and Yankee
Stadium.
Regardless, the Rays have enough talent already, assuming the
pitching can hold up, to make a run. Boston is still the favorite in
the division, but Tampa Bay has a deep enough roster to stay in the
Wild Card hunt.
Before the season, the Central figured to be among the deepest divisions in the majors. The Detroit Tigers made a major upgrade to their roster, adding an impact hitter, Miguel Cabrera, and Dontrelle Willis in a blockbuster deal with the Florida Marlins. Detroit also added Edgar Renteria, shipping prospect Jair Jurrjens to the Atlanta Braves for the veteran shortstop to become the early-season favorite to win the American League.
Chicago, at 58-40, has a .5 game lead over Minnesota. Unlike the Twins, however, the White Sox have staying power as the clear-cut favorite in the division.
Chicago has posted a +78 run differential. On the other hand,
Minnesota—which will not be able to maintain its current level of
production with runners in scoring position—has a run differential of
+33.
Joe Crede is enjoying a nice comeback, Jermaine Dye (.927 OPS) deserved to be an All-Star, Carlos Quentin (.913 OPS, 71 RBIs) has been an MVP candidate and Jim Thome has rebounded nicely after a rough start. Second baseman Alexei Ramirez has been one of the better rookies in the league as well.
The pitching has been the story in the Chicago, though. While John Danks and Gavin Floyd
may regress in the second half, the pair has been excellent so far,
combining to go 13-4. A top prospect, Danks appears to be emerging into
a legitimate starter in this league, having posted the fifth-lowest ERA
among qualifying pitchers in the AL.
Overall, the White Sox’s pitching staff has combined to post an
opponents’ line of .251/.313/.391, as Mark Buerhle and others are also
consistently getting hitters out.
Even with Jose Contreras—who
hid an injury and is now on the 15-day disabled list—on the shelf, it
truly appears as if each team from Chicago, 12th in the game in
defensive efficiency, will end the season in first place in the Central
division.
Detroit Tigers: Pretenders—
A lot has gone wrong in Detroit. After sending Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller to Florida in the blockbuster this winter, Detroit has not seen any immediate short-term gains.
Cabrera’s days as a third baseman are over, as he was a major
weakness on the left side of the Detroit infield before moving across
the diamond to first base. Offensively, he is struggling through a down
year as well, with a decent but not great line of .281/.348/.485 and
.833 OPS.
Willis, who has struggled mightily with his control and
command, is working out his issues in the minors. His performance has
declined steadily in each of his final seasons down in Miami, and
moving to the American League—even with a better defense behind him—was
not expected to be easy. Still, no one predicted control to be this
major of an issue for Willis, who posted a terrible 5-to-21 K/W ratio
in 11.1 innings pitched before getting demoted.
The other high-profile acquisition, Renteria, has lost a step
at shortstop and is no longer a stolen base threat. Making matters
worse, he has disappointed at the plate, batting .256 with a putrid
.307 on-base percentage and .635 OPS. His power is gone as well,
evident by his .325 slugging percentage and low home run total, five.
Not to mention, veteran Gary Sheffield is hovering around replacement-level production right now, with only six homers in 209 at-bats.
With a healthy Magglio Ordonez,
though, the club still has the firepower and personnel
offensively—especially if the aforementioned hitters pick it up in the
second half—to score runs down the stretch. Plus, at 49-49, they are
only 6.5 games back.
With Jeremy Bonderman out for the year, do they have the pitching to make a run?
Armando Gallaraga has been effective while several of his staff
mates have struggled, going 7-4 with a 3.41 ERA and 68-to-37 K/W ratio
in 100.1 innings pitched over 16 starts. Gallaraga has been a nice
surprise, and is the perhaps the one offseason acquisition—Detroit
received him from Texas in exchange for a minor league outfielder
shortly before pitchers and catchers reported to spring training—that
has exceeded expectations.
Ace Justin Verlander
nearly threw his second career no-hitter in his first outing, then
struggled through the first two months. He has won six games in his
last eight outings, though, and will need to carry over his recent
success for the Tigers to play any meaningful games come September.
Regardless, the rest of the pitching staff appears to be too
thin in Detroit, which also sits in the middle of the pack in defensive
efficiency.
The Tigers’ bullpen has not exactly been stellar, either, as closer Todd Jones has 18 saves but a 4.78 ERA.
The group hopes to receive a boost from Joel Zumaya, who reportedly may move into a starter’s role for the Tigers in the near future.
A postseason invitation seems unlikely, even if the alleged veteran stars actually start living up to their names.
Minnesota Twins: Pretenders—The
Twins’ winning streak before the break pushed the team into contention.
The odds of Minnesota—21-7 in its last 28 games—maintaining its
success, however, are fairly low.
Ron Gardenhire has certainly done a great job of getting his players to play hard.
Even without Pat Neshek, the club still has a decent bullpen, with a lights-out closer in Joe Nathan.
Also, a return to the majors seems inevitable for 2006 sensation
Francisco Liriano, who is 8-2 with a 3.34 ERA in 17 starts at Triple-A
Rochester.
Regardless, the Minnesota rotation, in the middle of the pack
in the majors in starters’ ERA (4.47), is less than stellar. The staff,
consisting of Scott Baker (3.26 ERA, 76-to-15 K/W ratio), Nick Blackburn, Glen Perkins, young Kevin Slowey and innings eater Livan Hernandez (10 wins, 5.29 ERA), does not have the makings of a postseason-caliber starting rotation.
Perkins, a local product of the University of Minnesota, has
added a boost, going 7-2 with a 3.84 ERA. Regression seems likely for
the 25-year-old left-hander, though.
Slowey has been a top prospect in the Twins’ organization ever
since he was selected in the second round of the 2005 First-Year draft
out of Winthrop University. A control specialist who has drawn
comparison to former Minnesota ace Brad Radke, he has excellent command for a 24-year-old. Still, he has only 27 career appearances under his belt.
While Liriano, who missed all of the 2007 season, has a chance
to help the Twins in their push for the playoffs, he is still always an
injury risk as well.
Even with one of the better bullpens in the AL, the club also
ranks 28th in opponents’ batting average (.277) against in the majors
while allowing opposing hitters to post a .758 OPS. To put this into
perspective, outfielder Delmon Young, expected to make a major impact after coming over from Tampa Bay, has a lower mark, with a .745 OPS.
The team defense is shaky as well, with the Twins currently ranking 22nd in defensive efficiency.
Then how are they doing it?
The answer is simple: offense, as Minnesota is fifth in the majors with 484 runs scored.
With Joe Mauer and former MVP Justin Morneau, the team has two of the better young hitters in the division.
Mauer started the All-Star game after a strong first half, and
has a chance to win another batting title; he currently is among league
leaders with a .324 batting average and .419 on-base percentage. While
he has only hit six homers, Mauer is also one of the best defensive
players at a crucial position.
Justin Morneau (Associated Press)
Morneau, the Home Run Derby Champ, has a line of .322/.391/.519, for a .909 OPS.
Carlos Gomez
and Young have been disappointments, though, because of their poor
plate discipline. Gardenhire would be wise to move Gomez, one of the New York Mets’ top prospects when he was shipped to Minnesota in the Johan Santana
deal, out of the leadoff spot. He is an exciting player to watch and
fits the description of a prototypical leadoff hitter, but his .285
on-base percentage is the lowest total in the majors among leadoff men.
Without question, the Twins’ offense has really been
exceptional when it counts, hitting .313/.385/.460, for an .845 OPS,
with runners in scoring position. It is unlikely, obviously, that the
club can sustain its knack for collecting big hits in big spots at this
level.
Therefore, similar to the Florida Marlins, the Twins are a
pretender, because they have relied on unsustainable run production to
this point, and are likely to falter when the tremendous clutch hitting
regresses back to the mean.
American League West:
Los Angeles Angels: Contenders—
The
Angels, 60-38, are coming off a big weekend in which they swept the Red
Sox while their biggest competition in the division, the Oakland Athletics, were swept themselves in New York.
The Angels’ lead in the division is now up to nine games over Oakland, which saw its talented general manager Billy Beane deal starters Joe Blanton and Rich Harden in the past month.
The path to the playoffs, then, seems clear for the Angels, who
are among the majors’ best teams when it comes to run prevention. Los
Angeles has built its roster the right way for playing in Angel
stadium, relying on excellent pitching and defense.
The Angels ranks eighth in defensive efficiency, which goes hand-in-hand with the plus starting pitching.
Southpaw Joe Saunders, 12-5 with a 3.05 ERA, and Ervin Santana, 11-3 with a 3.34 ERA, were huge for the Angels when John Lackey
was on the shelf. Lackey is back now, and has not missed a beat. He is
7-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 72-to-17 K/W ratio in 12 starts since
returning. Jon Garland and Jered Weaver are solid at the back of the rotation as well.
For a team built on pitching and defense—thus likely to be
involved in many low-scoring games—it certainly helps to have a capable
closer like Francisco Rodriguez,
who is on pace to shatter Bobby Thigpen’s single-season record for
saves. While Rodriguez is not missing bats as frequently as he has in
previous seasons, he has been unhittable at times, picking up 40 saves
while posting a 2.25 ERA in 44.0 innings pitched. The 26-year-old
right-hander from Venezuela is undoubtedly one of the strongest
ninth-inning stoppers in the game.
Do the Angels have enough offense to make a realistic run once they reach the postseason?
Sitting 21st in the league with only 425 runs scored, the answer
seems to be, no. The Angels’ inability to score runs is a direct result
of a poor .319 on-base percentage, 25th in the league, and .712 OPS,
23rd in the league. Due to the anemic offense, it is no surprise that
the A’s actually have a higher run differential, despite being so far
back in the division. Perhaps this is why Mike Scioscia was prompted to bunt with one out during a game two weeks ago.
While their pitching gives them a strong chance in a short series, they need to add another bat to take the load off of Vladimir Guerrero,
who is leading his team in nearly every offensive statistical category.
After struggling out of the gate, Guerrero has rebounded to get his
slash stats line up to .287/.347/.496. He also has 17 homers and 53
RBIs, providing production in the middle of a poor lineup.
Gary Matthews
Jr. appears to have turned one good season and spectacular catch in
Texas into a multi-year, multi-million dollar deal. He is providing his
team replacement-level production, for a little under $10-million this
season, giving Barry Zito a run for his money as the most overpaid player in California.
In Anaheim, he is not alone in the inability to help create runs, as only two players—Guerrero and Howie Kendrick—have an OPS above .800.
Regardless, Beane continues to sell high, and has conceded for
2008 so the Angels are the easy pick to win the West. The A’s, though,
appear to be stocking enough talent to dominate the division for years
to come, perhaps ending the Angels’ status as the premier team on the
west coast. Oakland remains a pretender, even in the Wild Card for now,
but Beane is stockpiling enough talent to realistically make dynastic
run as we enter the next decade.
Tyler Hissey recently graduated from Eckerd College in St. Petersburg, Florida, with a degree in business administratio n. In addition to this blog, he covers Major League Baseball, focusing on the Tampa Bay Rays, for the up-and-coming sports network Scout.com, and his work there is frequently syndicated on Foxsports.com . To access his work, go to RaysDigest.co m.
In addition to his writing, he is a frequent guest on the Sports Cafe with Sean Duade on Sarasota FM 1220, where he serves as an MLB contributor.
Prior to working at Scout, Hissey covered the Rays and Cincinnati Reds for MVN.com, better known as the Most Valuable Network. Before his brief stint with MVN, he wrote over 30 sports articles as a lead columnist at WeTalkSports. com, a role which he filled during the summer of 2006.
A Dean's List student at Eckerd, he was also nominated for the college's Writing Excellence Award during the 2006-2007 school year.
To reach him, send an email to TylerHissey@g mail.com.