Boston Red Sox infielder Dustin Pedroia was named American
League Most Valuable Player this afternoon by the Baseball Writers’
Association of America. I really do not have a problem with it at all,
though Kevin Youkilis was my pick in a recent awards article.
Pedroia
had a great all-around season, playing excellent defense and providing
plus offensive production for a second baseman. He tied for the league
lead in hits (213) and paced the circuit in doubles (54) and runs
scored (118). He also ranked second in batting average (.326) and 11th
in on-base percentage, which enabled him to add another trophy on the
award shelf next to his Rookie of the Year.
Pedroia came on
strong in the second half as well, batting .345/.402/.547 to help guide
the Red Sox to the A.L. Wild Card. As a 5-foot-7 slugger who swings out
of his shoes, it was fairly easy to predict him as the eventual winner.
The story, which has infatuated writers, came close to matching the
on-field production. His excellent stretch in August, when Mike Lowell
and David Ortiz were on the disabled list, also helped his case.
According to Jay Jaffe at Baseball Prospectus, Pedroia was the right winner.
Youkilis,
the Hank Aaron winner, was more valuable offensively, though. He
finished with a higher OBP and slugging percentage, and was also the
most productive hitter with runners in scoring position out of the
candidates who collected votes. In addition, he ranked among the
majors' most effective defensive first baseman and filled in at third
base admirably when Mike Lowell was on the disabled list.
Youkilis, though, finished a distant third, behind runner-up Justin Morneau of the Minnesota Twins.
Morneau
finished second in the league with 129 RBIs, but also came up to the
plate with runners on base more frequently than any hitter in baseball.
In reality, he was not even the most important player on his own team.
That would be Joe Mauer, who provided top-notch defense at a premium
position, catcher, won his second batting title and finished second in
the league in OBP. He collected a pair of first-place votes, ending up
fourth.
There was not a slam dunk case in the A.L, however, and
I understand the arguments for the aforementioned position players. It
was an interesting year, as two of the four playoff-bound teams lacked
legitimate candidates and there was not a clear-cut player from a non-contending team. The best team in the league, the Tampa Bay Rays,
did not have one player who stood out above the rest. Tampa Bay rode
its excellent run prevention to a division title.
Carlos Pena
finished ninth for the second consecutive year, but missed a lot of
time and had a poor first half—.778 OPS before the All-Star break. Evan
Longoria, the Rookie of the Year, finished 11th, but began the season
in Triple-A and missed almost of month with a wrist fracture.
Heck,
the local chapter of the BBWAA even selected Jason Bartlett as the
Rays’ Team M.V.P. Bartlett anchored the most efficient team defense in
baseball at shortstop, but posted an anemic .690 OPS and produced just
29 extra-base hits. (Quite amazingly, he even collected a fifth-place vote for
league M.V.P., finishing ahead of Ichiro and Mark Teixeira in points.)
If
Pena hit 46 home runs like he did in ’07 and posted a 1.000-plus OPS,
perhaps things would be different. But the Rays did not have a real
individual superstar performance.
The Los Angeles Angels won 100
games, but actually had a fairly middling offense. Teixiera had a great
run, but came over to the team in a mid-season trade with the Atlanta
Braves.
Fransisco Rodriguez received a few first-place votes,
thanks to his 62 saves. Rodriguez, in reality, was not even the most
valuable relief pitcher in the league (Mariano Rivera). His lofty saves
total was the function of opportunity; he had 69 chances, also a
record. He actually had one of his worst seasons, as his K/9, W.H.I.P.
and average fastball velocity all dropped to career lows.
The
Central champs, the Chicago White Sox, had a potential winner in Carlos
Quentin. Quentin was perhaps the front-runner until an injury ended his
season five weeks early.
Which leads us to Boston. And, yes,
Pedroia is really a nice pick, though he hit only 17 homers and did not
rank in the top 10 in OPS. Youkilis was as well, but he did have 100
fewer at-bats than his teammate, which helped his slash stats line.
All
in all, there were not any egregious errors in the voting for the major
awards. There was some faulty thinking behind some decisions, but the
right winner won in every award category.
Longoria and Geovany
Soto were the right picks for R.O.Y and Cliff Lee and Tim Lincecum
deserved their Cy Young awards. Ditto for Pedroia and Albert Pujols.
—Seriously, though, how did Bartlett receive more points than Ian Kinsler?
—Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News left
Pedroia off his ballot completely. Grant is pretty open minded in his
analysis, but what was he thinking here? As expected, he has drawn the
wrath of Red Sox nation; even Rob Dibble ripped into him, calling him a
“####” on The Show on XM Radio. He apologized
today, and offered his explanation. Apparently, Pedroia’s low home run
total, the smallest number for an M.V.P. winner since the days of
Nellie Fox, guided his thinking.
The
managers and coaches made some pretty big gaffes in the Gold Glove
balloting this year. Granted, it is difficult to quantify defensive
value; there have been advancements in new metrics, but there is still
a lot of room for improvement.
When it comes to handing out offensive awards, on the other hand, the process is considerably easier. At least it should be.
Well, the Silver Slugger awards were handed out this afternoon, and there were once again some serious snubs.
In a chart that I put
together, I listed the winner of the Silver Slugger Award at each
position in the American League. For several important offensive
categories—from batting average to OPS—I listed each winner’s stats and
league positional rank in the respective metric.
This makes it pretty easy to see which players deserved to win, and which players simply did not.
Morneau did not deserve to
win the award at first base. He had a fine season—.300/.374/.499—but
the voters apparently selected him for his RBI total, 129. This is
unfortunate, because RBIs are a function of opportunity, and are thus a
poor tool on their own for comparing hitters. In the stats that really
have a direct impact on scoring runs and winning (OBP, OPS), he ranked
third and fourth, respectively, at his position.
Kevin Youkilis
should have won instead; he ranked higher in every category except
RBIs. Youkilis simply had fewer RBI chances, and actually had a better
slash stats line with runners in scoring position than the winner. The
Boston infielder batted .374/.445/.708/1.091 OPS with RISP. Morneau,
though he was excellent with men on second and third in his own right,
ended up at .348/.443/.602/1.045 OPS; essentially, he only had more
opportunities.
Carlos Pena, of the Tampa Bay Rays, would also have been a better choice here.
Clearly, then, the Morneau
M.V.P. discussion is fairly misguided, especially considering his
position and defensive indifference.
At second base, one could make the case for Texas Rangers star Ian Kinsler.
Kinsler missed a large chunk of time with a season-ending injury in
August, though. Pedroia had an excellent offensive season, anyway, and
will garner serious consideration for M.V.P. He nearly won a batting
title, hitting .328. But he finished second at the position, behind
Kinsler, in nearly every other category. He was more valuable overall
than his second base counterpart from Texas when defense is factored
into the equation, but offensively—the criteria for this award—he was
not the best candidate.
Rodriguez was an easy choice
at the hot corner. He had a down season by his standards, but led the
position in nearly every category except RBIs. Although he took some
flack, it is hard to criticize any player who posts a.573 slugging
percentage, .965 OPS and ranks in the top 10 in the majors in V.O.R.P.
His partner on the left side of the infield, Jeter, was justified in
winning at shortstop. He is no longer that great in the field, but he
is still a productive hitter; .300/.363/.408 is exceptional at the
position.
Hamilton, the majors’ RBI
leader and Quentin, the frontrunner for M.V.P. until his season-ending
injury, are each deserving of the honor. They each finished in the top
three among A.L. outfielders in OPS. Quentin broke out in his new
surroundings in Chicago, ranking first in home runs and OPS, second in
OBP and fourth in RBIs.
Sizemore is one of the best
all-around outfielders in the majors and has great on-base skills, but
he only finished in the top five in two categories: home runs (tied for
third) and slugging percentage (fifth).
Mauer at catcher was perhaps
the easiest choice at any position. He is a true rarity—a strong
defensive catcher who can hit. He won his second batting title while
getting on base at a plus-.400 clip; he is not only the best-hitting
catcher in his league, but all of baseball.
Huff was a force in
Baltimore. He had one of the best single-season performances of his
career—even better than his 37-home run campaign with Tampa
Bay—finishing with 32 homers, a .912 OPS and 108 RBIs.
But the DH silver bat should have gone to Milton Bradley, who hit .321/.436/.563, with a DH-best .999 OPS.
There were not any major, major blunders, but again the managers and coaches erred in a few of their selections.
To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.
In my opinion, choosing award selections is one of the most enjoyable parts of writing about baseball (click here to compare my mid-season award picks). And I just could not help myself, so I decided to update my picks back from September. Throughout the week, I will offer my analysis on the actual winners as the awards are announced, with the R.O.Y awards coming on Monday. Here are my final picks.
American League
Most Valuable Player:
Justin Morneau is a name commonly being thrown around in the discussion for MVP. Traditional voters are infatuated with one statistic above all others—RBIs—and Morneau finished second in the league, behind Josh Hamilton, with 129. In fact, his high RBI total was the biggest reason why he won the award back in 2006, when there were several stronger options—including his teammate, Joe Mauer. Still, he was a key cog in a Twins’ offense that was tremendous with runners in scoring position (even if some pundits dismiss it as a statistical fluke), hitting .302/.375/.502, with 21 homers. But I still do not think that he deserves the award this year, as Mauer once again was more valuable to his team; Morneau does not even rank in the top 30 in the league in OPS.
Regardless of how you feel about OPS as a stat, an MVP candidate at a corner infield position should at least rank in the Top 10. Period.
Mauer, who won his second batting title, finished the season hitting .328/.413/.451, with 44 extra-base hits, 85 RBIs and 84 walks. When you consider that he also ranks among the premier defensive catchers in the game and has received plus scores on how he has helped handle and worked with a young group of Minnesota pitchers, it makes it all the more impressive. At such a defense-first position, his offensive output was outstanding, though, at 25, he still has room to continue to hit for more power.
To put into simple terms: finding 20-homer, 120-RBI, sub-.900 OPS production from a first baseman like Morneau is much easier to find than a catcher who fields his position well and can post a .400-plus on-base percentage and .864 OPS like Mauer.
Cleveland Indians outfielder Grady Sizemore put together a fine season as well, but will be hurt by the weak underperformance of his teammates. Sizemore, playing an excellent center field, hit .268/.374/.502, with 33 home runs and 90 RBIs. Although he will not get many votes because his team finished so far out of contention, he added as much value to the Indians as any of the aforementioned players. Is it his fault that Trafis Hafner got hurt? Or Victor Martinez? Did he make Fausta Carmona regress so severely? No, all he did was perform, providing top-notch defense and an .876 OPS and 101 runs scored. The young star places fourth on my make-believe ballot, and perhaps deserves to be ranked higher.
Dustin Pedroia, the diminutive second sacker for the Boston Red Sox, is a fine candidate as well. Although he is generously listed at 5’9—he is closer to 5’6— Pedroia, who finished second in the league in hitting, performed like a 6’4, 220-pound slugger, posting a line of .326/.376/.493 and bashing 17 home runs.
Pedroia also made tremendous improvements in his defense at a keystone position in every defensive metric out there, even winning his first Gold Glove. And when the injury bug bit the Boston lineup, he picked up the slack to help the Red Sox hold their strong lock on the AL Wild Card, delivering several huge hits down the stretch while playing his excellent defense at second base. Like Mauer, he posted an impressive OPS number (.869) considering his defensive position. Although he would not get my vote, he seems like the likely winner, since his on-field production comes close to matching the story.
Still, in my opinion, another Boston player is more deserving—Kevin Youkilis.
Youkilis’ .958 OPS was good for fourth in the AL. Unlike the players who finished ranked ahead of him—Milton Bradley (only 414 at-bats), Quentin and Alex Rodriguez), he has a realistic chance to take home the honors. Justifiably so, too. He finished the year hitting .312/.390/.569, with 29 home runs and 115 RBIs, adding to the legend of the “Greek God of Walks.” Not only did he post strong offensive numbers, he played excellent defense at first and third base (filling in when Mike Lowell went down) and was a constant presence in the Red Sox’s lineup when several of his teammates were on the disabled list. When compared to Morneau, he added substantially greater real value offensively while giving his club better glove work and actually hit better with RISP.
Honorable mention also goes to Bradley, who led the league in OBP and OPS but missed too much time due to injury, Hamilton, who paced the circuit with 130 RBIs, and Rodriguez.
My picks:
1. Kevin Youkilis
2. Joe Mauer
3. Dustin Pedroia
4. Grady Sizemore
Cy Young:
Unlike the MVP race, this was a pretty easy choice here. Cliff Lee went from a demotion to the minors to the best pitcher in the league in less than a calendar year. Lee was truly brilliant, posting a 22-3 W/L mark, the lowest ERA (2.54) in the AL and a ridiculous 170-to-34 K/W ratio. The Cleveland Indians left-hander proved that his early-season success—he went 12-2 with a 2.31 ERA before the All-Star break, earning the start at Yankee Stadium—was not a fluke. He was nearly perfect in the second half by winning 10 decisions as Cleveland played its way to a respectable finish. To sum up his slam-dunk case: he finished the season ranked first in the league in ERA, winning percentage (.880) and wins, second in complete games (4), innings pitched (223.1) and WHIP (1.11), and ninth in strikeouts.
Although Lee is the clear-cut winner, there is a decent case to be made for Roy Halladay as well. Halladay, one of three pitchers in the league to win 20 games, anchored a Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff that finished with the lowest group ERA on the circuit. As he does every year, it seems, he continued to put up zeroes on the scoreboard in Toronto, posting a 2.78 ERA in a league-leading 246.0 innings pitched.
While CC Sabathia threw his share of complete games for the Milwaukee Brewers, Doc Halladay has him beat. Quite amazingly considering how few starters go a full nine innings these days, he finished the season with nine complete games on his own. There are a lot of teams that would be happy to have that total dispersed among the entire starting rotation, let alone one pitcher. Pitching in the ridiculously competitive East division, he also led the league in WHIP (1.05), using his excellent control and command to shut offenses down every fifth day.
Jon Lester had an outstanding season for Boston, going 16-6 with a 3.21 ERA and 152-to-66 K/W ratio. Lester, who threw a no-hitter against the Kansas City Royals in May, finished fourth in the league in ERA and winning percentage and seventh in innings pitched while limiting opponents to a .256/.318/.368 line. The 24-year-old southpaw, who emerged as the new ace of the Red Sox’s staff, has a chance to take home some votes.
Credit also must be given to Mike Mussina, who joined the 20-win club for the first time of his potentially Hall-of-Fame career. Mussina had one of his best seasons ever to anchor a New York rotation decimated with injuries, going 20-9 with a 3.37 ERA for a defensively challenged Yankees team.
Lester’s teammate, Daisuke Matsuzaka, should garner some votes as well, after finishing 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA. Matsuzaka, however, consistently struggled with his command, walking 94 in 167.2 innings, and does not deserve to be seriously considered.
Closer Francisco Rodriguez picked up 62 saves in 69 chances for the Los Angeles Angels, breaking Bobby Thigpen’s previous single-season mark of 57. Lost in the media hype, though, he also set the benchmark for save chances, a function of opportunity. Due to the Angels’ weak offense and emphasis on small-ball, the right-hander was given a greater number of opportunities to hold a lead in low-scoring games than any other pitcher in baseball history.
Among major league relievers who registered more than 40.0 innings pitched, Rodriguez did not finish in the top 15 in ERA (19th) or K/9 (19th), top 40 in opponents’ OPS (42), top 60 in WHIP (69) or top 100 in K/W ratio. The flame throwing right-hander, who posted an opponents’ line of .216/.314/.316, led the league in only two statistics, saves and save opportunities. While he grabbed headlines for breaking the record, it is worth mentioning that he was the only pitcher who was given enough chances to even come within four saves of the previous all-time mark—Jose Valverde finished second in SVO with 52. for these reasons, there are about four relievers who should be considered ahead of him.
My picks:
1. Cliff Lee
2. Roy Halladay
3. Jon Lester
4. Mike Mussina
Rookie of the Year:
Evan Longoria is perhaps an easier choice than Lee in the Cy Young category. After Longoria was promoted to the Rays in early April, he quickly emerged as one of the best young third baseman in the game. Although he missed some time on the disabled down the stretch, he put up excellent numbers for a rookie in only 131 games: 27 home runs, 85 RBIs, .874 OPS. Not to mention, he played excellent defense at third base, allowing Akinori Iwamura to move across the diamond to second. His arrival, combined with a few other defensive changes, enabled the Rays to make the move from worst-to-first in team defense. The Rays’ run prevention efforts, in fact, are the ultimate reason why the Rays won the AL East for the first time in their 11-year history.
Longoria’s play at third base was a major reason why the club converted more balls put into play into outs than any other team in the majors, as the Rays finished the regular season with the best defensive efficiency rating. Throw in a slash stats line of .272/.343/.531 and a lot of big hits along the way, and you get Tampa Bay’s real MVP—with apologies to Jason Bartlett—and the easy choice for top rookie.
Fans in Chicago probably have a different take, though, as Alexei Ramirez has exceeded all expectations with his first-year performance for the White Sox. Ramirez, a nifty defender in his own right and a sensational athlete, belted 21 homers, including a rookie record five grand slams, and 77 RBIs However, he struggled to get on base enough (.317 OBP, only 18 walks ) and was not nearly as productive as Longoria.
Armando Galarraga deserves some love here, too. While Dontrelle Willis was seemingly walking nearly ever hitter, Gary Sheffield was sitting near replacement-level, the Tigers’ pitching staff was in shambles, Carlos Guillen showed that he could not handle either corner infield spot defensively, Brandon Inge played out of position and Justin Verlander was busy dropping 17 decisions, the disappointing version of the 2008 Tigers had one pleasant surprise in Galarraga. The rookie right-hander went 13-6 with a 3.68 ERA, 126 punchouts and a 1.19 WHIP in 28 starts.
Staying in the Central, rookie infielder Mike Aviles had a fine debut season for the Royals. Aviles batted .325//354/.480, with 10 home runs and 53 RBIs in 419 at-bats, providing one of the few offensive bright spots in Kansas City. At 27, he, is obviously old for a rookie and is unlikely to turn into a superstar. Still, an .834 OPS for a shortstop is quite impressive, and will be difficult for some voters to overlook.
A case could be made for Joba Chamberlain and Jacoby Ellsbury, pre-season favorites, as well, in addition to Minnesota speedster Denard Span and Oakland Athletics reliever Brad Ziegler, whose scoreless innings streak provided one of the year’s highlights.
My picks:
1. Evan Longoria
2. Alexei Ramirez
3. Armando Galarraga
4. Joba Chamberlain
Manager of the Year:
Ron Gardenhire did a tremendous job, yet again, getting the Twins to play hard day in, day out, helping his team exceed all expectations with the departure of Torii Hunter and Johan Santana. My pick, though, is Joe Maddon, who instituted a culture of winning into the Rays’ clubhouse. Every move, it seems, worked out for Maddon during the regular season as the Rays went from the joke of the league to AL East champions. He did a heck of a job, really, and was able to motivate his players to buy into the 9=8 concept—nine players play together as a team to become one of the eight playoff teams. Well, though he received some tremendous help by a front office that provided him with a much-improved roster designed to shine at run prevention, he did exactly that.
My picks:
1. Joe Maddon
2. Ron Gardenhire
3. Terry Francona
4. Mike Scioscia
National League:
Most Valuable Player:
The term valuable is interpreted loosely when it comes to baseball, and many people think that a player must play for a contending team to garner attention for the award. After all, a last-place club could still finish last even if their star first baseman did not mash 50 homers, right? I do not necessarily agree with that mindset, though, as often times too many legitimate candidates miss out on winning awards like this because of the poor performances of their teammates.
With that being said, it is hard not to seriously think about naming CC Sabathia the MVP in the National League after his masterful performance in the second half. Although Sabathia did not spend even half of a season in the league, he was sensational (insert hyperbolic word here) in his new surroundings, going 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA. Not only that, he practically resurrected the Brewers’ quest to reach the postseason for the first time since 1982 on his own. If Sabathia did not provide so many quality innings for Milwaukee, it is hard to imagine the Brew Crew even sniffing the Wild Card down the stretch. Sure, he was only with his team from July on, and was only able to pitch every (for him, third perhaps) fifth day, but the larger-than-life lefty was otherworldly.
Although the Brewers parted ways with top hitting prospect Matt LaPorta, the return on investment—just by ending the playoff drought—was well worth it, as Sabathia turned in one of the best post All-Star break runs in baseball history. I would not vote for him, but he deserves to at least be in the discussion.
Ditto for Manny Ramirez, who had a similar effect on the Los Angeles Dodgers. After coming over from Boston at the trade deadline, Ramirez singlehandedly transformed Los Angeles’s lineup from average to dynamic. He posted Nintendo-like numbers in L.A., hitting .396/.489/.743, for a whopping 1.232 OPS, with 17 homers and 53 RBIs. As ugly as his departure from the Red Sox was, he was also reportedly a much better teammate, too, helping to add a new sense of calm in the Dodgers’ clubhouse.
Ramirez made the difference as the Dodgers' young talent began to flourish, helping Joe Torre’s club win the weak N.L West division with 84 wins. However, Man-Ram simply did not play in enough games in the N.L. to get my vote, as even Sabathia practically had a month on him. Unfortunately, his insane postseason performance does not count for consideration in this award, which obviously hurts his case.
My choice, then, is Albert Pujols, the best all-around player in the majors all year. Pujols helped the Cardinals remain in contention until around 10 days left in the season, which exceeded all pre-season expectations for the organization. In perhaps a typical Pujols year, he finished with a .357/.462/.653 line, 37 home runs, 116 RBIs and 104 walks to pace the game with a 1.114 OPS. Not only that, he played great defense at first base, which enabled him to win his third consecutive Fielding Bible Award at the position. Without his bat in the lineup for 148 games, St. Louis would have fallen out of contention by July. He will lose out on votes because his team missed out on the playoffs, but, as the most productive offensive contributor in the game, he made more of an impact for his team. Period.
Ryan Howard led the league with 48 home runs and 146 RBIs, getting hot at the right time (1.274 OPS in September) to help the Philadelphia Phillies to their second consecutive NL East championship (and eventual World Series championship). But, the games in the first half count too, and I have a difficult time voting for a player with a .339 on-base percentage. Pujols has the edge in the stats that really count, played much better defense and would be the slam dunk pick if he had better teammates.
While I am a big Howard guy, he, like Morneau in the other league, did not rank in the top 10 in the league in OPS or VORP, and was not even the most valuable member of the Phillies.
That honor goes to Chase Utley, who played sensational defense at second base and hit .292/.380/.535, with 33 home runs and 104 RBIs. He finished with one of the highest VORP—Value Over Replacement Player, which is certainly not a perfect stat and does not account for defense—totals ever by a second baseman, 62.2, which was nearly 30 points higher than Howard’s mark. He also ranked as the most effective defensive player in the majors, at any position, in John Dewan’s plus/minus system.
Still, Pujols added the most real value on the diamond, and gets my vote.
My picks:
1. Albert Pujols
2. Chase Utley
3. Manny Ramirez
4. CC Sabathia
Cy Young:
Again, though he only made 17 starts in the NL, Sabathia will garner some votes for carrying the Brewers on his back and pitching them into the postseason.
Brandon Webb, because of his high wins total, is perhaps the favorite. Webb, Mr. Consistency, put up another fine year on the mound: 22-7 record, 3.30 ERA, 183-to-65 K/W ratio, 1.20 WHIP. The 2006 Cy Young struggled at an inopportune time down the stretch, though, which may hurt his case. Yet, along with Dan Haren, he deserves credit for helping the Arizona Diamondbacks stay competitive, even when things got ugly for that offense.
Although either pitcher cannot match the win total belonging to Webb, Tim Lincecum of the San Francisco Giants and Santana of the New York Mets are more deserving of the award, in ’08. Again, this proves why wins/loss record is a misleading, ineffective method for judging a pitcher’s overall effectiveness. Seriously, it is 2008, and we know better.
Lincecum, pitching for the lowly Giants, went 18-5 with a 2.62 ERA, second to Santana, and a league-best 256 strikeouts. Scouts may fear that he will break down eventually, as his mechanics are certainly unorthodox. But since he has come into the league, he has been one of the most successful starters in the majors, and it all came together for him this season as he struck out 10.35 batters per nine innings and limited opponents to a .223 batting average and .614 OPS. For the traditionalists who are infatuated with wins, because baseball is a “team game” they say, consider this: Lincecum left the game with the lead on five different occasions, destined for a win, yet saw his bullpen fail to hold it. Team game, indeed.
Still, my pick is Santana, who came over to the Mets in the blockbuster trade this offseason and then went on to sign a huge deal to stay in New York. Boy, did he earn his paycheck, for year one at least? While New York missed out on the playoffs, again, by blowing a late-season lead, do not point any fingers at the dominant southpaw. He finished with the lowest ERA (2.53) on the circuit, striking out 206 in 234.1 innings pitched. While his 16-7 record is nothing too sexy, go back and read the preceding paragraph. The man pitched well enough to win 20 games, easily, and saw a mediocre bullpen, featuring the likes of Luis Ayala, Scott Schoenweis and Brian Stokes, blow several of his leads.
Even though the New York media was calling Santana’s first year in Queens a bust at the break—despite his 2.84 ERA—he shut them up with a great second half, going 7-0 with a 2.37 ERA and .231 opponents’ batting average in his final 14 starts. He delivered in big spots, too, like on the final Saturday of September, when he saved the Mets’ season (at that point) by putting together a complete game victory on three days’ rest. So, with sincere apologies to Lincecum, Santana gets my vote, as he did not have the benefit of pitching in the weak-hitting West.
An under-the-radar candidate deserving of honorable mention is Brad Lidge, who was by far the most dominant closer in the league. Lidge was invaluable to the Phillies, going a perfect 41-for-41 in save opportunities and posting a 1.95 ERA. K-Rod may be getting the press, but Lidge had the better campaign—he just had fewer save chances. Just ask the Mets how valuable a stud relief pitcher can be. When Billy Wagner went down, it seems, so did the season for the Metropolitans. So, though he is a dark horse, do not be surprised when he gets some votes.
My picks:
1. Johan Santana
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Brad Lidge
4. Brandon Webb
Rookie of the Year:
Geovany Soto has a better chance of winning this award than Vincent Chase has of getting some in the next episode of Entourage. Soto, the first rookie catcher to start the All-Star game for the National League, was perhaps the most valuable player for the team that posted the best regular season in the N.L. Playing a defense-first position, he batted .285/.364/.504, with 23 bombs, an .868 OPS and 86 RBIs. For that production, while putting on the mask for 131 games at catcher and handling the Cubs’ staff at a premium spot on the field, he deserves some MVP consideration as well. The best years area head for the 25-year-old stud as he continues to establish himself as the best offensive catcher in the league.
Like Longoria in the other league, Soto is the clear-cut pick here. But Joey Votto comes in second, in my opinion. Despite receiving less fan fare and attention than his fellow rookie teammate on the Cincinnati Reds, Jay Bruce, Votto put together a nice first campaign: .297/.368/.506, with 24 homers and 84 RBIs. The 25-year-old first baseman, with Bruce, is one of the key pieces of a nice young nucleus that the Reds have to build around for the future.
Jair Jurrjens had a nice debut season on the mound for the Atlanta Braves, going 13-10, with a 3.68 ERA.
Soto is the only pick for this award, though, and perhaps has a chance to win the award unanimously.
My picks:
1. Geovany Soto
2. Joey Votto
3. Jair Jurrjens
4. Jay Bruce
Manager of the Year:
Part of me wants to give this award to Joe Torre, who left New York for the West Coast and helped guide a diverse group of youngsters and veterans to the NL West title. But, it is exactly that: the Dodgers, who gave up so many prospects in pre-deadline deals, absolutely needed to win the inferior West. If not, the season would have been labeled an absolute failure. To their credit, they did what they had to do, ending up as the best of the worst after acquiring Ramirez, who helped them unseat Arizona for the title in the majors' weakest division.
My pick, though, goes to Charlie Manuel, who led the Phillies to another division championship. Manuel may not come off as the most intellectual baseball manager, but he did the most important thing that a manager can do: earn his players’ respect. And, from making an example out of Jimmy Rollins after he failed to run out a ground ball earlier this summer to keeping the clubhouse loose, he got the best out of his players in 2008. If the voters, who had to turn in their ballots in before the playoffs started, could account for playoff performance, the World Series-winning manager would easily take home the honor.
Fredi Gonzalez and Manny Acta are also excellent managers, though they were not exactly left with talented rosters to work with. A manager really needs the proper players—as a carpenter needs supplies—to ever have a chance of competing at this level. Which is why bad teams can have great managers sometimes, and great teams can have bad managers.
In Chicago, the Cubs have both in Lou Piniella. While the Cubs have a huge payroll, a great market, and a talented club, Piniella once again did a fine job, steering Chicago to the best record in the NL through 162 regular season games.
Still, Manuel gets my vote. (Note: he was my selection on September 29 as well.)
Carlos Pena on Thursday was selected as the Rawlings Gold
Glove Award winner at first base in the American League. Pena, a first-time
selection, posted a .998 fielding percentage in 1,099 chances, which was tied
for first among qualifying first baseman in the majors. In John Dewan’s
plus/minus rating system—perhaps the most effective metric used to evaluate
defensive value—he rated out fifth in the majors at the position, and second
his league, with a +14.
The Rays’ excellent run prevention efforts were the biggest
reason for their remarkable worst-to-first turnaround in the American League
East. Tampa Bay
only allowed 671 runs, nearly a 300-run improvement from its total a season
earlier. The team defense ranked first in the majors in defensive efficiency,
the rate at which batted balls hit into play are converted into outs. The defensive
excellence coincided with dramatic improvements in the bullpen and starting
rotation, helping guide the Rays, with a middling offense, to the A.L. pennant.
Pena was an important part to an outstanding defensive
infield, which featured above-average defenders at each position—Jason Bartlett
(shortstop), Akinori Iwamura (second base) and Evan Longoria (third base). The
left-handed hitting slugger’s defensive contributions normally get overshadowed
by his offensive output—31 home runs, .861 OPS—but he is a solid glove man at
the position and not a bad choice by the managers and coaches.
Longoria was a legitimate candidate to win his own Gold
Glove as well, but lost out to a more deserving candidate, Fielding Bible Award
winner Adrian Beltre of the Seattle Mariners.
Here are the full winners. In a future article, I will offer
my criticisms about some of the undeserving winners (Michael Young, anyone?) in the American Leauge.
P – Mike Mussina, New
York Yankees
C – Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
1B – Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay Rays
2B – Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox
3B – Adrian Beltre, Seattle Mariners
SS – Michael Young, Texas Rangers
OF – Torii Hunter, Minnesota Twins
OF – Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians
OF – Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners
Grant
Paulsen, who has been an accredited member of the national media since
he was a teenager, has already made his mark in the broadcasting
industry although he has yet to graduate from college and is not old
enough to legally drink in this country. Paulsen, 20, is perhaps the
Jay Bruce of sports journalism, having covered the Little League World
Series and Super Bowl for ABC Sports on several occasions. He has also
appeared on the David Letterman show six times. A student at George
Mason University in Virginia, he is currently the host of Minors and Majors, a two-hour weekly show focusing on Major League Baseball and its minor league prospects on XM Radio.
Grant
recently offered his opinions about the latest news and notes around
the league in an interview with Tyler Hissey for Scout.com.
TH:
Grant, thanks for finding the time to answer some questions about all
that is going on in the Major League Baseball season. Let’s get to it.
The Los Angeles Angels
are one of the best run-prevention clubs in the game, with an excellent
defense and pitching staff. The Angels also have a strong bullpen led
by K-Rod, who is on pace to set the single-season saves record. The
offensive situation, on the other hand, has been a cause for concern,
and the addition of switch-hitting slugger Mark Teixeira will undoubtedly help add another impact bat to protect Vladimir Guerrero. Does the trade make Los Angeles the favorite to win the AL?
Grant:
Adding Mark Teixeira was monumental for the Angels. They desperately
needed a bat - and preferably a big one - and they got it when they
traded for him. Their deep pitching staff, ranked eighth in all of
baseball, gives them a chance to win each night, and they are a top-10
team defensively as well. The only area in which they needed to upgrade
was at the plate, and in getting Teixeira they were able to add power
to a lineup that has hit 49 fewer home-runs than teams like the Marlins
and Phillies have this season.
Even if Teixeira proves to be
only a late-season rental, which I think could very well be the case, I
won't disagree for a moment with what the Angels decided to do. He is a
career .285 hitter who can hit his club 35-homers a season and play a
terrific first base. With a team like Los Angeles for the long-haul I could see Tex becoming an annual MVP candidate in the American League. They gave up Casey Kotchman,
who is a nice enough major leaguer, and a decent relief pitching
prospect in hard-throwing righty Stephen Marek. But they got a guy back
who makes them the number-one contender for the title (if I can use a
wrestling term). That's what the Angels are now. They are the top
contender in the AL, and I would be surprised if they aren't in the ALCS.
TH: The Braves certainly went for it all last year, giving up a promising package of prospects—including Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison
and Jarrod Saltalamacchia—to make a run. However, they finished further
out of the division than they were at the time of the acquisition, even
though Teixeira put up some monster numbers down the stretch. In
Kotchman and Marek, GM Frank Wren got about as much as he could have at
this point, certainly more than the club would have received had it
waited for the compensation picks. Still, it seems, they were burned in
the long run. Do you agree? Will teams use this as a lesson before
making similar deals at the deadline?
Grant: I
think that teams might. I've always felt like GMs should ask themselves
only one question before giving up multiple prospects who could
eventually help their club for just one veteran major leaguer. If he
(the guy they are trading for) comes over and plays like an MVP, can we
win the World Series? If the answer is yes, then I am okay with those
trades. If the answer is no, then I don't like the idea. Especially if
a team is just renting a guy like the Braves were with Teixeira last
year, and like the Brewers are this year with CC Sabathia. I didn't
like the Teixeira deal last year, and I wasn't a huge fan of the
Sabathia deal. If he pitches them into the playoffs, though, I will be
okay with the fact that they parted with future All-Star Matt LaPorta.
TH: On an off note, what are the odds that some Angles fans make another Teixeira tribute video on YouTube?
Grant:
I feel like another video is coming soon. From the same guys who
brought us Mark Teixeira I, comes a second and even more epic offering!
Haha. Perhaps the release date will be set for some time in late
October.
TH: As of this writing, David Price
is 9-0 combined between the Single-A Vero Beach and Double-A
Montgomery. Do you see Price making an impact this season? If so, do
you think he will turn into this year's version of Joba Chamberlain, coming out of the bullpen, or will he crack the Tampa Bay rotation should Edwin Jackson or Andy Sonnanstine falter?
David Price (AP)
Grant:
Price is a stud. The guy is going to be 23 later on this month and he
could have been getting big league hitters out as of halfway through
his final college season at Vanderbilt
a year ago. He popped at 99 in his first outing as a pro during spring
training this season, and his breaking pitches are already big-league
ready. He's going to be a star front-line arm for many years to come,
and I could see him and Scott Kazmir being the game's top one-two punch in baseball in a couple years.
With that all said, I think that he will be used in the bullpen down the stretch this season. That will be the best way for Tampa Bay
to get his feet wet against major league hitters. He also had a minor
arm injury earlier this spring, which could make the Rays want to pitch
him out of the pen as a way of keeping his innings count down a little
more efficiently, all while still trying to get production out of his
electric arm.
If he is used out of the pen, I could see him
performing a lot like Joba Chamberlain did last season. His 2007
efforts were something of a once-in-a-decade time promotion, but if
anybody could duplicate that type of start to a career, I think Price
is that guy. I could see Price repeating that type of dominance down
the stretch. He could fortify an already much-improved bullpen and be a
big lift for Tampa Bay
down the stretch. Unfortunately for the Rays, though, he isn't going to
help them hit any better, which is the only phase of the game that they
aren't very consistent with.
TH: I recently wrote a contenders piece for the American League. Which four teams from the league do you see making it to the postseason and why?
Mark Teixeira (AP)
Grant: At
this moment I have the Angels, Red Sox, and White Sox winning the West,
East, and Central, respectively. I rank them in that order because that
is the order of my confidence in each of those teams to capture a
division crown.
The Angels, with the acquisition of Teixeira and the re-emergence of Ervin Santana as a front-line arm, are my pick to represent the AL in the World Series.
I think Boston is better today than it was a week or two ago as well, though. Jason Bay will give them everything Manny Ramirez
did offensively, more defensively, and he'll do it all without creating
any problems or causing any headaches for his new coaching staff. I
think that Jed Lowrie is an upgrade for them at shortstop as well, and I could see him becoming Boston's Dustin Pedroia of this year in the next couple of months.
The
other kind of Sox get terrific pitching and have more power bats than
they know what to do with. I just don't know how much I trust some of
the unproven arms in that rotation (John Danks and Gavin Floyd among them) down the stretch. Getting Ken Griffey Jr. should provide them with a nice boost, though.
My
wild card pick right now is the Rays. They have a deep enough rotation
to win any series they play in, they play great defense and they can
manufacture enough runs - as the AL leaders in thefts - to mask their
anemic team batting average.
TH: Personally, going by their poor run prevention (inexperienced pitching staff and bad infield defense), I do not see the Florida Marlins making the playoffs out of the NL East. They have a negative run differential after all, and, though the Arizona Diamondbacks
made it to the playoffs after scoring fewer runs than their opponents
last fall, I just do not think it is in the cards for the Fish. Do you
agree? If so, who do you think will come out the East?
Grant:
I agree with you on the Marlins. The peripherals just don't add up to
them being a playoff participant (but don't tell the 2007 Diamondbacks
that). The best thing about the Marlins is that they aren't supposed to
win right now. They are loaded for the future, thanks largely to the Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis trade this offseason, and they were able to hang on to most of their top prospects at the trade deadline. I'm a Gaby Sanchez
guy, but he projects more as a backend-arm than an ace, and he was the
only major subtraction from their future core. I think they could keep
playing on the plus side of .500, but I don’t' see them doing much more
than that the rest of the way. Then again, I didn't see them competing
at all this year, so what do I know?
TH: There has certainly been a lot of attention centering around the Milwaukee Brewers’ acquisition of CC Sabathia, though the Brett Favre drama has taken away some of its thunder. Sabathia has energized that clubhouse, adds a legitimate ace alongside Ben Sheets at the top of the staff and is now the best-hitting pitcher in the league with Micah Owings’
demotion to the minors. With that being said, do you think the Brewers
will make the postseason for the first time since the Robin Yount era?
Grant:
The Brewers are my current pick to win the National League's wild card.
Sabathia is one of those guys who can go seven-innings and give his
team a chance to win on a bad night. That's the mark of a true ace, and
he's proven to be just that over the years. He might be baseball's best
pitcher if he ever played an entire season in the NL. The big fella
would just be dominant. And Ned Yost will not have to pull him out of
games for a pinch hitter, because he's proven that he can wield the
wood.
Milwaukee is a better team than St. Louis and Florida, and they are better than any of the clubs in the NL West. With that said, they'll be contending with either Philadelphia or New York
(whoever doesn't win the East) for the wild-card spot, at least in my
insignificant and probably inaccurate projection. I think they stack up
well with either of those two teams. The bottom line is that they had
better get to the playoffs. If they don't, then I really don't like the
trade at all. If they do I wouldn't be shocked at all if they got to
the World Series, considering that they would have Sheets and Sabathia
to throw at teams back-to-back. But they have to get there first, and
in order to do that they need to start playing better defense (they are
11th in the NL in fielding percentage).
TH: Before we end the interview, give us the names of a few prospects to look for when rosters expand in September.
Grant:
Dave Price is the main guy to look out for. He could very well change
the American League East landscape, not just this season but over the
next several years.
In addition to him, the guy I am most excited about seeing is Andrew McCutchen in Pittsburgh. He's going to get a chance at some point in August, or maybe September, to roam the outfield at PNC Park. He's got more tools than Tim Allen and he's been making his way up through the ranks in a "Jay Bruce"
kind of way since the two were drafted real close to each other out of
high school back in 2005. I can't wait to see what he does in his first
dose of action with the Pirates. He's an electrifying talent who can
contribute in a plethora of different ways and baseball fans in the Steel City are in for a treat.
Cameron Maybin is another guy I want to get another look at. I liked what I saw from him in Detroit
last season, but I didn't get enough of him. Maybin getting sent to
Double-A this year was like dangling candy in front of me and telling
me I couldn't have it.
Matt LaPorta and Travis Snider could both also get late-season calls in Cleveland and in Toronto,
respectively. I'd be giddy to get a first-glimpse of either of those
two slugging outfielders in 2008. Both project as lineup-altering
boppers and each should one day find their way onto an All-Star team.
TH: Thanks for taking the time out of your busy schedule, Grant. Keep up the excellent work on XM Radio.
For more info on Grant and his work on XM radio, click here.
The Los Angeles Angels acquired the services of Mark Teixeira from the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday night. The Braves dealt Teixeira, a free agent following the season, in exchange for Casey Kotchman and minor league pitcher Stephen Marek.
Although the Angels will only get two months of the switch-hitting
slugger, they were in desperate need of adding another bat to protect Vladimir Guerrero in a lineup that has struggled to score runs. In fact, despite being 11.5 games up over the Texas Rangers in the American League West, the club has a lower run differential than the third-place Oakland Athletics.
The first team to win 65 games, Los Angeles has relied on its excellent starting rotation, a solid bullpen led by closer Francisco Rodriguez, who is threatening to break the single-season saves record, and an above-average team defense.
The Angels’ offensive attack, on the other hand, has been a
major weakness, as the club ranks in the back of the pack in nearly
every statistical category, including runs scored (474), on-base
percentage (.322) and OPS (.721).
Howie Kendrick, Guerrero and Torii Hunter have made an impact, but are currently the only regulars on the 25-man roster who have posted an OPS above .800.
Guerrerro, who has rebounded from a poor start, is leading the
team with 17 home runs and 54 RBIs. Still, he is not 100 percent
healthy, which remains a cause for concern.
Several other starters have struggled mightily, though. The group of disappointments is highlighted by free agent bust Gary Matthews
Jr., who has posted the lowest OPS total among all qualifying left
fielders in the majors and is batting only .234/.313/.346 with seven
homers. Veteran Garret Anderson, who has posted a .309 on-base
percentage and has seen his bat speed drop off dramatically, has also
struggled.
Teixeira, who is batting .283/.390/.512 with 20 home runs and
78 RBIs, will undoubtedly provide a major boost to the L.A. lineup. One
of the most productive hitters in the majors, he will also help provide
protection for the aforementioned core. Also a solid defensive first
baseman, he has a career .909 OPS and will be the premier free agent
available this offseason.
Teixeira was a monster for Atlanta after being acquired from
the Rangers for four minor league prospects in the blockbuster deal of
’07 deadline season, hitting 17 home runs and posting a 1.019 OPS in 54
games. The Braves, however, were 2.5 games out in the National League
East when they acquired the switch-hitting slugger. They then finished
six games back, despite a monster performance from their new
acquisition. This is a different situation right now, however, as the
Angels are already a lock for the postseason, sitting as the runaway
favorites in the AL West.
Therefore, Teixeira has a realistic chance to make a huge
difference, adding the bat that has been missing for Los Angeles, which
even considered signing Alex Rodriguez to fill the void this offseason, over the past two years.
In return, Atlanta is getting a nice player in Kotchman, who has
above average contact and defensive skills. His offensive output,
however, leaves a bit to be desired. He does not hit for the power
normally associated with a corner infielder and has shown decreasing
on-base skills in 2008. More of a contact hitter, he has posted a line
of .287/.327/.448, for a low .774 OPS for a first baseman, with 12
homers and 54 RBIs. To his credit, the former first-round pick out of
Seminole High School in Florida—which had a record amount of players
drafted during his senior year back in 2001—has been great with runners
in scoring position and two outs, posting a line of .357/.426/.429 in a
small sample size of 42 at-bats.
Marek has come out of nowhere to emerge as one of the premier
relief pitching prospects in the minors. A 40th-round pick back in
2004, he went to San Jacinto Junior College and then signed as a draft
and follow. He is 2-6 with a 3.66 ERA, .223 opponents’ batting average
and 57-to-21 K/W ratio in 34 appearances at Double-A Arkansas. Look for
him to make an impact out of the Braves’ bullpen in 2009.
Considering that Teixeira is a brief rental who will play in
only around 50 more games, is a Scott Boras client and is expected to
fetch around $20 million, Frank Wren deserves credit for pulling the
trigger. Wren, the longtime right-hand man under John Schuerholz,
received more value—in the short- and long-term—by dealing the
soon-to-be free agent than the organization would have would have
gotten had it waited to receive a pair of compensation picks when he
bolted for free agency.
Still, the Angels are to be applauded as well, because Teixeira is perhaps the missing link in their quest to win a title.
YouTube Tribute In The Works? Last time Tex was traded, a few Braves fans came up with one of the most popular YouTube sports-related videos of the year, providing a tribute to their new slugger. So, I ask again, is another video in the works, Angels fans?
The youth movement is in full swing for the Cincinnati Reds.
Even with veteran-loving Dusty Baker running the show, Cincinnati has
received some of its strongest performances from youngsters under the
age of 25.
Jay Bruce tore up Triple-A, posting the highest OPS (1.023) in the International League before making his highly anticipated major league debut. Bruce then caught the nation’s eye with his first week in the bigs, providing enough walk-off hits to make David Ortiz jealous in a sensational debut. Bruce mania swiftly followed, as the 20-year-old Texan received a full feature in Sports Illustrated and even took some thunder away from Ken Griffey
Jr., whose pursuit of 600 home runs came to an end back in June. While
he has fallen back down to earth a bit—.264/.319/.410, seven homers
overall—he is currently one of the most exciting young outfielders to
watch in the league, showing why he was the number one prospect in the
minors in several pre-season Top 100 lists. He will undoubtedly serve
as a mainstay in an outfield that is expected to lose Adam Dunn and Griffey Jr. in the near future, most likely in right field.
Edinson Volquez
has been spectacular as well, going 12-4 with a 2.77 ERA with a
134-to-61 K/W ratio in 21 starts to earn an invitation to the All-Star
Game at Yankee Stadium. Volquez, who came to Cincinnati in exchange for
Josh Hamilton this winter, has even drawn comparisons to Pedro Martinez
with his electric performance thus far. He is likely to anchor the
Reds’ starting rotation well into the next decade, easing the pain
among Cincinnati fans with the loss of Hamilton, who is flourishing
with the Texas Rangers.
Johnny Cueto
has had his ups and downs, but has also flashed glimpses of brilliance,
posting a 116-to-47 K/W ratio and a park-inflated 5.02 ERA. Cueto, 22,
is also a major reason why the future looks bright for the franchise,
though he has been lost in translation pitching alongside his All-Star
teammate.
Then there is rookie Joey Votto, the Reds’ premier position player prospect outside of Bruce entering the season. Votto quickly supplanted veteran Scott Hatteberg
as the full-time first baseman after a strong start to emerge as one of
the most productive offensive rookies in the majors. The 25-year-old
left-handed hitter is batting .270/.339/.440. While he has not shown
even average on-base skills, drawing only 36 walks in over 350 plate
appearances, he has flashed tremendous power and is among rookie
leaders with 13 home runs.
Cincinnati, 12.5 games back in the NL Central, is clearly out
of it for this year, and should look to make some deals at the deadline
with an eye on adding a supporting cast for the aforementioned core.
With a plethora of soon-to-be free agents on the roster expected to
come off the books come September, general manager Walt Jocketty truly
has a nice opportunity to turn his team into a force on the Senior Circuit for years to come as the Griffey hometown reunion comes to its ultimate end.
However, the Reds have drawn scant interest from other clubs about Bronson Arroyo—who
has $25 million remaining on his contact and was reportedly taken off
the market—and Adam Dunn. Dunn, who has the ninth-highest OPS total in
the league and is tied for the majors’ lead with 30 home runs, would
certainly upgrade the offensive attack for a contending club with his
high-level offensive production. He is a polarizing slugger, however,
who has scared away several potential suitors with his poor defense and
high strikeout totals. His days are likely coming to an end in Cincy,
regardless, but he is serious undervalued within the industry and it
will be tough to replicate his production.
With a number of prospects flourishing in the majors, there are still several high-quality prospects still developing.
Homer Bailey—yeah, the phenom right-hander from Texas
who was lit up this weekend—has still yet to establish himself in the
majors. Considering the hype that has surrounded Bailey since he was
drafted in the first round back in 2004, this is a major
disappointment. He has been ineffective in nearly all of his six major
league starts this time around, going 0-4 with a 6.52 ERA and 11-to-13
K/W ratio in 29.0 innings pitched. The 22-year-old, still yet to
develop a capable second offering, has been hit hard as well, giving up
eight gopher balls and nearly two hits per inning during his
up-and-down stay with the parent club. He was absolutely awful in his
latest outing, on Saturday, allowing 15 hits and four earned runs in a
loss to the Colorado Rockies. He turned in two quality outings—in which he allowed three runs or less in 5.2 innings plus against the San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers— before the weekend debacle at Great American, but is likely to be shipped back down to the minors.
Bailey has hardly been dominant in Triple-A, either, as he is
4-7 with a 4.42 ERA, 82-to-38 K/W ratio and 1.42 WHIP in 16 starts with
the Louisville Bats. While many
have questioned his attitude, his velocity is down and his performance
has left a lot to be desired, he is still young enough, at 22, to turn
things around. Still, his star has dimmed.
There are a few talented bats in the wings as well, several of
whom are still miles away from contributing to the big league club. The
group includes Juan Francisco, Todd Frazier and Drew Stubbs and is ikely to receive a boost with the addition of first-round pick Yonder Alonso, who is a Scott Boras client and has yet to sign.
Francisco has tremendous power potential, currently sitting with 15 home runs for the Sarasota Reds.
He has drawn only 13 walks while striking out 93 times, however, and
needs to improve his approach at the plate. One could even say that he
is Dunn without all of the runs scored and walks. Still, the corner
infielder is only 20 years old playing against older competition, is a
switch hitter and has compiled 46 extra-base hits and a line of
.284/.307/.479 in 405 at-bats. If he can figure things out plate
discipline-wise and bring his on-base skills to an acceptable level,
then he could turn into a prospect to keep a close eye on.
Frazier, the Reds’ supplemental first-round pick back in ’07 out of Rutgers
University, had a fine professional debut season, posting a line of
.319/.405/.538 in 47 at-bats in lower-level ball. The former Little
League World Series hero began this year at Dayton, where he posted a
1.000 OPS and hit seven home runs in 30 games. He then received a
promotion to the Florida State League, remaining at shortstop—he will
most likely be forced to switch positions—while receiving the label as
a “gamer” from many scouts along the way. At a tough hitters’ park down
in Sarasota, he has been solid yet unspectacular, hitting
.292/.367/.468 with nine home runs and 40 RBIs.
Frazier is an excellent infield prospect, though, and will likely end the season at Double-A.
Stubbs recently made the jump to the Southern League, where he
has performed well (.341/.431/.386) in a brief sample size with the Chattanooga Lookouts.
How he performs the remainder of the season in Double-A will be a play
a huge factor in the development of the 2006 First-Round pick, who had
a tremendous collegiate career at the University of Texas.
A solid defensive outfielder with great speed, Stubbs has shown
the ability to get on base since signing. He has not hit for the power
that many expected yet—he hit numerous shots during his days with the
Longhorns—he has been a consistent offensive player who continues to
improve. Before his promotion, he batted .261/.366/.406 with five home
runs, 38 RBIs and 27 stolen bases in 35 tries down in Sarasota.
Alonso and the Reds are expected to reach an agreement on a
signing bonus before the August 15 deadline, which will add a
high-impact player who is ready to make a quick jump to the majors to
the Reds’ minor league system. The University of Miami star, who reportedly had dinner this weekend with stars Ortiz and Alex Rodriguez,
posted a ridiculous 1.311 OPS and finished sixth in the nation with 24
home runs during his final college campaign. He has great on-base
skills and an advanced approach to hitting, which should allow him to
make a quick rise through the organization.
The Reds have plenty of interesting prospects, though there is
a drop off in pitching depth after Bailey, who will lose his prospect
label one of these days. Still, the organization—regardless of what
happens before Thursday or not—has a bright future ahead of itself.
The roster for the USA Olympic Team was
announced earlier this week. The following minor leaguers will travel
to Beijing to represent their country at the 2008 Olympic Games. The
group is filled with an interesting mix of stud prospects and career
minor leaguers, all of whom have one goal: to take home the gold.
To find out more on a certain prospect, click on the corresponding
scouting reports from Scout.com. Each prospect is listed next to the
organization that they play for.
Anderson, 20, came over to the Oakland Athletics in the deal that sent Dan Haren to the Arizona Diamondbacks
this offseason. The southpaw, one of two Oakland prospects headed to
Beijing, threw a scoreless inning in the Futures Game at Yankee
Stadium. He has been effective since joining the deep Oakland farm
system, going 9-4 with a 4.14 ERA, 80-to-18 K/W ratio and opponents’
batting average of .238 in 13 starts in the California
League before getting promoted to Double-A. He is now pitching for
Midland in the Texas League, where he is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in four
starts.
Anderson, selected by the Diamondbacks in the second round of
the 2006 First-Year Draft, has shown strong command over a fastball
that sits in the low-90s, in addition to a slow curve ball, his
strongest offering, and a changeup. He is the son of Oklahoma State head coach Frank Anderson, who has an excellent track record of developing college pitchers.
Click here
for a full scouting report on Anderson, courtesy of Melissa Lockard,
who ranked him the third-best prospect in the Athletics’ farm system in
her pre-season rankings.
Arrieta, 21, was selected in the fifth round of the 2007 draft
out of Texas Christian University, where he went 23-7 over his final
two seasons and was twice named an All American. As a Scott Boras
client, he scared off several organizations with his high asking price,
dropping him several rounds. He has produced in the minors for
Baltimore, though.
Arrieta, in fact, is enjoying a fine campaign in his first
professional campaign, earning an invitation to the Futures Game at
Yankee Stadium. In 20 starts for the Frederick Keys
in the Carolina League, he is 6-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 120-to-51 K/W
ratio. The right-hander, who has earned Carolina League Pitcher of the
Week twice already this season, is leading the circuit in innings
pitched (113.0) and WHIP (1.16). For his stellar first half, he was
elected to the league All-Star team. He has a fastball in the 88-91
range, topping out at 93, which he can paint the corners with.
Arrieta is no stranger to international competition. While in
college, he posted a 4-0 record and 0.27 ERA for the Gold-Medal winning
national team in the ’06 World Championships in Cuba.
Click here for a Q&A with Arrieta, courtesy of Michael Hollman of InsideTheWarehouse.com.
Barden was one of two players selected from the St. Louis farm system, though top outfield prospect Colby Rasmus will miss the Olympics due to a knee injury. The 27-year-old shortstop has been a key offensive player for the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds, batting .292/.358/.436 with nine home runs and 35 RBIs in 95 games. He was acquired off of waivers from the Arizona Diamondbacks, who selected him out of Oregon State in the 2002 draft, last August.
Barden is clearly too old to be considered a “prospect,” and
actually made the Diamondbacks’ Opening Day roster out of spring
training in 2007. The veteran minor leaguer, who has a career OPS of
.804 in seven professional seasons, also has the versatility to play
three infield positions. He had an excellent May, earning
organizational player of the month after hitting .377 with a .460
on-base percentage in 27 games.
The Los Angeles Angels have struggled to score runs at times.
Angels’ third base prospect Matthew Brown, though, has done nothing but
hit this season, posting a line of .331/.381/.603 with 20 homers, 63
RBIs and a .985 OPS at Triple-A Salt Lake City in the Pacific Coast
League. The 25-year-old infielder, who has played nearly every position
on the field, is ranked by Scout.com as the seventh-best third base
prospect in the minors.
Cahill is a polarizing prospect. He has posted strong numbers
since the Athletics selected him out of a California high school in the
2006 draft, but does not have an overpowering fastball. In fact, the
young right-hander, who gave up an academic scholarship to Dartmouth to
sign with Oakland, relies more on his pitching intelligence and
excellent command.
Cahill was a force in his first full campaign in ’06, going
11-4 with a 2.73 ERA and 117-to-40 K/W ratio in 105.1 innings pitched
in the Midwest League. He picked up where he left off this spring after
beginning the season in the California League, where he went 5-4 with a
2.78 ERA, 103-to-31 K/W ratio and .174 opponents’ batting average in
87.1 innings pitched. Cahill, selected a CAL Mid-Season All-Star, was
then promoted to the Texas League, where he has flourished alongside
Anderson in the Midland starting rotation. The 20-year-old has
continued to impress, posting a 5-1 record and 2.25 ERA in his first
six starts.
Overall, Cahill, who also was added to the US roster for the
Futures game, is 10-5 with a 2.64 ERA and .178 opponents’ batting
average in 119.1 innings pitched.
Click here for a scouting report on Cahill, courtesy of Melissa Lockard.
Cummings, a career minor leaguer, has one goal left in his
professional career—to reach the majors. Cummings, who began the 2008
season in Taiwan, is perhaps inching closer to that dream with every
start. After signing with Durham as a minor league free agent in May,
he has been one of the most effective starting pitchers in the
International League over the past two months, going 7-3 with a 2.95
ERA and 63-to-20 K/W ratio in 76.1 innings pitched.
Cummings has come a long way since the St. Louis Cardinals selected him out of West Virginia
University in the 1999 draft, but if he can continues to pitch
effectively, his dream of the reaching the majors may just come true
after all; if not with Tampa Bay, an organization stacked with pitching
prosp