According to Ken Rosenthal, the Tampa Bay Rays have had discussions about Jermaine Dye and are one of several teams “balking” at the reported asking price.
Rosenthal:
“The White Sox are asking
teams for a young starting pitcher plus additional players for right
fielder Jermaine Dye. The Mets, Rays and Phillies are among the teams
balking at such a price.”
Although the Rays have a need for a right-handed bat in a right
field/DH-type role, Dye does not seem like a great fit. He had a nice
bounce back season for the Chicago White Sox, batting
.292/.344/.541/.885 OPS, with 34 home runs to help lead his team to the
postseason. However, he is due around a little under $11.5-million in
2009, the last year of his current contract. This means that he is
essentially a rent-a-player who is not exactly stellar defensively and
would hurt the Rays’ excellent run prevention efforts. Considering the
price, his bad knees and age (34), he is not the type of player who
Andrew Friedman would seriously consider.
True, Dye is only two year’s removed from an MVP-caliber season
in which he posted career highs in OBP (385), OPS (1.006), slugging
percentage (.622) and wOBA (.412). He also put to rest any concerns
from his dismal ’07 campaign (.338 wOBA), posting a .371 clip.
Regardless, Dye is likely to decline and would not be a good
fit in the turf at Tropicana Field. In Bill James’ projections for ’09,
he has Dye putting together a line .270/.334/.491, with a .357 wOBA.
This, factoring in defense, would not be that much of an upgrade,
anyway, considering the financial implications and cost of prospects.
Rosenthal continues:
“One potentially interested
executive said his team was concerned that Dye batted only .210 with
runners in scoring position and two outs last season — 36 points below
the American League average.”
This was interesting to me. Of all the red flags, why focus on
this? Dye certainly struggled with RISP and two outs, batting
.210/.269/.306. Still, that line was based on 62 at-bats, which is not
exactly a hefty sample size. The thought process of that unnamed
executive is undoubtedly concerning, and, from where I am standing,
makes it unlikely that they work for the Rays.
Rosenthal also touches on some other rumors regarding Tampa
Bay, which is looking to upgrade at DH. Given the current state of the
economy, he says, the Rays could end up finding a bargain in a
short-term deal with one of the bigger free-agent bats available. One
of the names listed is Jason Giambi, whose name also surfaced in a recent New York Post
article (though it was essentially a rumor created by a single writer).
It is unlikely that the Rays will be able to afford Giambi, who quietly
put together a nice performance in his final go-around with the New
York Yankees. The left-handed hitting slugger posted a .373 OBP, .502
slugging percentage and a 128 OPS+ while hitting 32 home runs. He
finished with a .372 wOBA as well, as he continued to do three things
consistently: draw a bunch of walks, hit home runs and strikeout.
With that being said, Giambi would provide a tremendous boost
to a Tampa Bay lineup that was actually less productive than in
2007—when they finished in last place in the division. His on-base
skills would be a welcome addition, and he would not have to play first
base as frequently as he did in New York with Gold Glover Carlos Pena returning.
Still, a deal is unlikely. The Rays will wait to see what the
market dictates before they make a move, if any. Barring a weak demand
for Giambi, his agent will likely generate a multi-year, multi-million
dollar deal that would obviously cancel out the Rays as a potential
suitor. Plus, he is left-handed.
Cork Gaines recently dismissed this rumor in a recent post.
Gaines:
“Giambi's agent: [covers phone, giggles like a school girl] OK. Let's start at three years, $45 million.
World B. Friedman: [gulps] But...but your guy is old and we only had to pay Cliff Floyd
$2.75 million for half of a season's worth of work. Giambi is
one-dimensional and baseball gloves probably should get a restraining
order against him. Even PECOTA says he was only worth $9-10 million in
2008. How about two years, $12 million?
Giambi's agent: Listen, my guy just posted an OPS+ of 130 which was just behind Vlad the Impaler and Miguel Cabrera and just ahead of Grady Sizemore, Magglio Ordonez and David Ortiz. That OPS+ was better than free agents Adam Dunn, Raul Ibanez and Pat Burrell.
He is only 37, and have you seen him recently? I don't want to say my
boy is back on the juice, but have you seen his arms recently? He is
bigger than when he got busted the first time...Uh, I mean the only
time...or whatever it was that he apologized for and never admitted
to...Three years, minimum. And he made $23 million in 2007. My client
is used to a certain lifestyle.”
Also, Trever Miller
reportedly agreed to a preliminary contract with the St. Louis
Cardinals last Friday. The deal is still not yet official, however.
Miller posted a 107 ERA+ in 43.3 innings and recorded some big outs for
the Rays this past season.
Jonah Keri, co-author of Baseball Between The Numbers,
was kind enough to answer several questions about the Tampa Bay Rays in
an email exchange. Keri is a frequent contributor to ESPN.com (click here for archive) whose writing has appeared in Baseball Prospectus, Playboy, the New York Times, Salon, Slate and many other publications. He also writes a popular stock market column for Investor's Business Daily and offers analysis on everything from college basketball to politics on his website, JonahKeri.com.
Jonah, thanks for taking the time answer some questions.
Reid Brignac
has regressed offensively since his breakout performance in the
California League back in 2006. Brignac finished with a sub-.300 OBP in
his Triple-A debut but has made strides defensively. How does he
compare defensively to Jason Bartlett,
and does he have a chance to win the job in camp? Or is there any
chance that the Rays would deal him this winter, under the impression
that Bartlett could man the position until Tim Beckham is ready down the road?
JK: I
have no inside knowledge on this front per se, but I could see the Rays
dealing Brignac, yes. Andrew Friedman is always looking for value. So
whether or not they trade Brignac could depend on whether teams see the
Cal League stats and improved defense or focus on the offensive
regression of the past couple years. If they keep Brignac, I imagine
they'll stick with Bartlett for his defense.
With David Price set to crack the rotation, who do you think will be the odd man out? According to this data, Andy Sonnanstine
was considerably more valuable than many people gave him credit for in
2008. With that being said, he seems like the best bet to stay.
However, would Edwin Jackson,
because of his stuff, bring in more value in return if he is traded? If
you had to bet, which pitcher is more likely to be dealt?
JK: Again,
I think it will come down to value. If teams are willing to shell out
more for Sonnanstine, he could be dealt. If Jackson can fetch more, he
might go. I think Jackson would work well in a bullpen role too, so
that could be another option. I'd like to see the Rays see if they
could get a true impact bat for Scott Kazmir. But it's rare that we see that kind of blockbuster deal. Then again, the Delmon Young deal was a shocker when it happened.
Jeff Niemann
is unlikely to ever emerge as a front-line stud at this point, but
would be ranked a lot higher in another organization without so much
pitching depth. Out of options, where do you see him at this point next
offseason?
JK: Another
good bullpen candidate. Someone who throws that hard coming downhill
with his height...if they just slot Niemann in the pen and stop
shuttling him back and forth, he could be a good, cheap option.
Will Mitch Talbot earn a spot in the Rays' bullpen in 2009?
JK: Another
who'd be worth a shot. That's the beauty of having so much
organizational pitching depth, of course. There's no need to hand out a
three-year contract to some random veteran. Save a few million here and
a few million there with equivalent talent, and suddenly you've got the
cash to, say, buy out David Price's arbitration years in 2010.
The
Rays excelled at run prevention in 2008, ranking first in defensive
efficiency. What steps will they take, if any, to prevent a regression
on this front?
JK: The
infield is the strength of the defense, and the Rays are going to bring
everyone back there. There's a good chance the team will add a new
right fielder. Going after a player who can hit without hurting the
defense would help on that front, obviously. That means stay far, far
away from Raul Ibanez, for example.
The
Boston Red Sox will be back, the New York Yankees seemingly have the
chance to sign every big-name free-agent pitcher this offseason and the
Toronto Blue Jays return some excellent pitching. Is it possible for
the Rays to be even stronger next year, yet still miss out on the
playoffs?
JK: Most
definitely. The AL East won't stop being a tough division any team
soon. The Baltimore Orioles are going to improve too, as prospects like
Matt Wieters, Chris Tillman et al come up.
If you could choose between Price and Wieters, who would you take?
JK: Wieters. Much less risk of injury and much more predictable performance for position players than pitchers.
Bartlett
received a fifth-place vote for A.L. M.V.P., and even was selected as
the Rays' Team M.V.P. by the local chapter of the BBWAA. What is wrong
with that picture?
JK: Well
plenty, of course. I don't want to take anything away from Bartlett,
who was a huge defensive upgrade. Let's just say there were plenty of
better MVP candidates. Several on his own team, in fact.
Andrew Friedman has a great track record of exploiting inefficiencies, having found several sleepers like Eric Hinske and Carlos Pena
on the cheap in the recent past. With a handful of players due for
raises in arbitration and little money to work with, do you have any
predictions for what Friedman will do this winter?
JK: I
expect the payroll to go up somewhat, given the team likely surpassed
its revenue projections for 2008 with its playoff run, and that they're
well positioned to contend again in '09. Using internal options for the
bullpen would be a good way to defray some of the raises that other
players are getting. I do think a Kazmir deal could make some sense,
especially if it's for a younger, less expensive, but still talented
hitter.
Did Chuck LaMar receive too much credit for the Rays' success during the postseason coverage?
JK: I
think he received the right amount of coverage. The focus was mostly on
Andrew Friedman, Matt Silverman and Stu Sternberg. Vince Naimoli, Chuck
LaMar made plenty of mistakes during their respective tenures. But the
old regime did make some contributions to the team that became the '08
Rays. Seemed reasonable to save at least some credit for them.
Do you think B.J. Upton would ever consider signing a similar deal to Evan Longoria, or is he more likely to go year-to-year until free agency?
JK: Well
the dollar amounts would be much higher for Upton of course, since he's
a fair bit further along on the service time clock than Longoria was
when he signed. I imagine Upton will take the best deal available to
him. If the Rays make a big, multi-year deal, I'd imagine he's strongly
consider it. If the Rays opt not to extend a lucrative long-term offer,
Upton will do fine year-to-year.
Has Carl Crawford
reached his peak as a player, barring an improvement in his approach on
on-base skills? Do you foresee a bounceback when he is fully healthy in
'09?
JK: I
could see a power spike. He's 27, at a stage in his career where you
should expect a small, but gradual erosion in speed. Players of that
age, assuming health, do often see power spikes. The biggest level of
upside would be an improved batting eye. If Crawford learns to take
more pitches, both to work walks and to find pitches to hit in
favorable counts, everyone benefits.
Do you think Tampa Bay fans will get to see Wade Davis at some point next year?
JK: I
do. How much he's involved will depend on the health of the Rays'
pitchers. If everyone's healthy and producing, we might be talking
about just a September cup of coffee for Davis--or possibly a David
Price-style call-up where they get him on the roster before Sept. 1 as
a prelude to a possible spot on the playoff roster.
Since Rocco Baldelli
cannot play back-to-back days in the outfield due to his mitochondrial
disorder, would it be an unwise decision for Tampa Bay to make him a
serious offer and give him a roster spot?
JK: Depends
on price, of course. He's a free agent so he can go anywhere he likes.
If other teams value him as anything close to the future star he was
once thought to be, I imagine the Rays will pass. If teams balk because
of Baldelli's health, a contract loaded with playing time and
performance incentives would make sense.
Thanks for answering the questions, Jonah.
For
those who have not read BBTN, I encourage you to do so. It will change
the way you look at the game forever. Also, Keri recently finished the Page 2 guide to MLB Free Agency, which you don't want to miss.
To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com
It was depressing to learn that the talented writers at Fire Joe Morgan are calling it quits
after years of providing entertaining criticism of the mainstream
sports media. From the Joe chats to food metaphors, Ken Tremendous,
Junior and dak used humor to spread the word about sabermetrics. During
college, visiting the site was one of the first things that I would do
every morning. Now, college is over and FJM is not more. The way I see
it, things can only go up from here.
Deadspin posted an entertaining, though sad, exit interview with the guys, each Hollywood writers. It is a great read.
Michael Schur, who writes under the pseudonym Ken Tremendous, has been a lead writer on The Office and
played Dwight Schrute's cousin, Mose, in a few guest cameos. It is
going to be hard to watch the show in the future without thinking about
David Eckstein or Darin Erstad.
*Jeff Passan, a survivor, offered an excellent tribute to the blog at Yahoo! Sports.
*Peter
Gammons has a new post up on his blog at ESPN.com. Gammons offers some
interesting insights. He wonders why Hanley Ramirez finished 11th in
the voting. I completely agree with him on that front.
Ramirez
is not a great defensive shortstop, but, considering his position, he
is a stud offensive player. He batted .301/.400/.540, with a 146 OPS+
and 33 home runs as the anchor of the Marlins' power-hitting infield.
He also scored 125 runs.
*Albert Pujols clearly deserved
to win the award, but the voters erred in a lot of their other
secondary votes. It was surprising that Lance Berkman did not garner
more serious consideration as well; he finished fifth.
Within
the piece, Gammons also says that the Atlanta Braves are still in the running
in the Jake Peavy sweepstakes. Frank Wren, according to the blog post,
is intent on getting a deal done. There is also word that the Yankees
are not in the running. In my opinion, it would be unwise for Peavy, the ace of the San Diego Padres, to
accept a deal to the American League, where his numbers would surely
suffer.
*According to Jon Heyman, Pedro Martinez is planning to pitch in 2009. Ben Reiter of SI.com ranked
Martinez 44 in his Top 50 available free agents. He is an injury risk,
of course, but his agent told Heyman that he is fully healthy for the
first time in a while. After missing the first four months of the
season with a hamstring injury, he posted a 75 ERA+ in 20 starts for
the New York Mets. I had Martinez ranked higher in my Top 50, which I
will be releasing later this week.
*Jeremy Affeldt signed
with the San Fransisco Giants on Monday. Affeldt was one of the premier
relief pitchers available in this free agent class, so credit the
Giants for locking him for only two years, at a relatively cheap price
of $8-million. As Dave Cameron writes,
the left-hander is seriously underrated, and is coming off an excellent
performance with the Cincinnati Reds. He posted a 3.33 ERA in 74
appearances, striking out 80 in 78.0 innings pitched. His 9.19 K/9 rate
was the best of his career as his average fastball velocity jumped from
92.4 to 94.6, according to FanGraphs.
Brian Sabean deserves some
praise for locking up one of the under-the-radar prizes in this class.
Sabean has had some blunders, from the infamous trade with the the
Minnesota Twins to the Barry Zito fiasco, but he pulled off a steal
here. It looks like that Eckerd College degree has done him some good
after all.
*Pujols won his second M.V.P. on Monday, and Joe Posnanski writes
that it is time to give him due credit for his
out-of-this-world-abilities as a baseball player. I have received some
emails arguing why Ryan Howard deserved to win the award.
Although I touched on this in an earlier post, let us look at the data one last time from a comment I left on the other article.
Howard
was better in one month, September, but not by much. Take that away and
he would be hovering around near league average slash stat numbers at
the position. He was brutal in August, and a non-factor for half of the
year. Do those games not count?
Counting stats are misleading,
context-driven. In the stats that count, Pujols had better numbers. He
had more hits, doubles, walks, stolen bases, runs extra-base hits, and
a higher BA, OBP, slugging, OPS. In the advanced metrics, he ranked
first in the league—and considerably higher than Howard—in adjusted
OPS+, runs created, adjusted batting runs, batting wins and offensive
winning percentage (essentially, a team of nine Pujols in the lineup
would have had the highest winning percentage of any other player).
Pujols
also had a 98.7 VORP—value over replacement player—compared to Howard’s
36.6. That does not account for defense, but is great at distinguishing
real offensive value. Nearly two-thirds higher.
Chase Utley and
Jimmy Rollins each finished with higher totals in VORP on the
Philadelphia Phillies, as did pitchers Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer. The
stat is not perfect, but is pretty solid at determining actual value,
not perceived value—like if we took him away, and so forth.
The
Phillies still would have been dangerous even with an average offensive
1B—Mike Jacobs, for instance—instead of Howard, who was not the M.V.P.
of his own team let alone the entire league.
Pujols also grades out as a better defender in every metric.
Your honor, the defense rests.
*It
was shocking that Utley, who hit 32 home runs and played exceptional
defense at the keystone, finished 15th in the voting. Cameron agrees.
*And, on a sad note, former Rice star Wade Townsend underwent surgery
on his right shoulder this week. Towsend, the Tampa Bay Rays'
first-round pick back in 2005, has battled injuries since signing, and
is now likely to miss the 2009 season. His days in the organization may
be over as a result. The 25-year-old right-hander made three starts in the Arizona Fall League before sustaining the injury.
Boston Red Sox infielder Dustin Pedroia was named American
League Most Valuable Player this afternoon by the Baseball Writers’
Association of America. I really do not have a problem with it at all,
though Kevin Youkilis was my pick in a recent awards article.
Pedroia
had a great all-around season, playing excellent defense and providing
plus offensive production for a second baseman. He tied for the league
lead in hits (213) and paced the circuit in doubles (54) and runs
scored (118). He also ranked second in batting average (.326) and 11th
in on-base percentage, which enabled him to add another trophy on the
award shelf next to his Rookie of the Year.
Pedroia came on
strong in the second half as well, batting .345/.402/.547 to help guide
the Red Sox to the A.L. Wild Card. As a 5-foot-7 slugger who swings out
of his shoes, it was fairly easy to predict him as the eventual winner.
The story, which has infatuated writers, came close to matching the
on-field production. His excellent stretch in August, when Mike Lowell
and David Ortiz were on the disabled list, also helped his case.
According to Jay Jaffe at Baseball Prospectus, Pedroia was the right winner.
Youkilis,
the Hank Aaron winner, was more valuable offensively, though. He
finished with a higher OBP and slugging percentage, and was also the
most productive hitter with runners in scoring position out of the
candidates who collected votes. In addition, he ranked among the
majors' most effective defensive first baseman and filled in at third
base admirably when Mike Lowell was on the disabled list.
Youkilis, though, finished a distant third, behind runner-up Justin Morneau of the Minnesota Twins.
Morneau
finished second in the league with 129 RBIs, but also came up to the
plate with runners on base more frequently than any hitter in baseball.
In reality, he was not even the most important player on his own team.
That would be Joe Mauer, who provided top-notch defense at a premium
position, catcher, won his second batting title and finished second in
the league in OBP. He collected a pair of first-place votes, ending up
fourth.
There was not a slam dunk case in the A.L, however, and
I understand the arguments for the aforementioned position players. It
was an interesting year, as two of the four playoff-bound teams lacked
legitimate candidates and there was not a clear-cut player from a non-contending team. The best team in the league, the Tampa Bay Rays,
did not have one player who stood out above the rest. Tampa Bay rode
its excellent run prevention to a division title.
Carlos Pena
finished ninth for the second consecutive year, but missed a lot of
time and had a poor first half—.778 OPS before the All-Star break. Evan
Longoria, the Rookie of the Year, finished 11th, but began the season
in Triple-A and missed almost of month with a wrist fracture.
Heck,
the local chapter of the BBWAA even selected Jason Bartlett as the
Rays’ Team M.V.P. Bartlett anchored the most efficient team defense in
baseball at shortstop, but posted an anemic .690 OPS and produced just
29 extra-base hits. (Quite amazingly, he even collected a fifth-place vote for
league M.V.P., finishing ahead of Ichiro and Mark Teixeira in points.)
If
Pena hit 46 home runs like he did in ’07 and posted a 1.000-plus OPS,
perhaps things would be different. But the Rays did not have a real
individual superstar performance.
The Los Angeles Angels won 100
games, but actually had a fairly middling offense. Teixiera had a great
run, but came over to the team in a mid-season trade with the Atlanta
Braves.
Fransisco Rodriguez received a few first-place votes,
thanks to his 62 saves. Rodriguez, in reality, was not even the most
valuable relief pitcher in the league (Mariano Rivera). His lofty saves
total was the function of opportunity; he had 69 chances, also a
record. He actually had one of his worst seasons, as his K/9, W.H.I.P.
and average fastball velocity all dropped to career lows.
The
Central champs, the Chicago White Sox, had a potential winner in Carlos
Quentin. Quentin was perhaps the front-runner until an injury ended his
season five weeks early.
Which leads us to Boston. And, yes,
Pedroia is really a nice pick, though he hit only 17 homers and did not
rank in the top 10 in OPS. Youkilis was as well, but he did have 100
fewer at-bats than his teammate, which helped his slash stats line.
All
in all, there were not any egregious errors in the voting for the major
awards. There was some faulty thinking behind some decisions, but the
right winner won in every award category.
Longoria and Geovany
Soto were the right picks for R.O.Y and Cliff Lee and Tim Lincecum
deserved their Cy Young awards. Ditto for Pedroia and Albert Pujols.
—Seriously, though, how did Bartlett receive more points than Ian Kinsler?
—Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News left
Pedroia off his ballot completely. Grant is pretty open minded in his
analysis, but what was he thinking here? As expected, he has drawn the
wrath of Red Sox nation; even Rob Dibble ripped into him, calling him a
“####” on The Show on XM Radio. He apologized
today, and offered his explanation. Apparently, Pedroia’s low home run
total, the smallest number for an M.V.P. winner since the days of
Nellie Fox, guided his thinking.
The
managers and coaches made some pretty big gaffes in the Gold Glove
balloting this year. Granted, it is difficult to quantify defensive
value; there have been advancements in new metrics, but there is still
a lot of room for improvement.
When it comes to handing out offensive awards, on the other hand, the process is considerably easier. At least it should be.
Well, the Silver Slugger awards were handed out this afternoon, and there were once again some serious snubs.
In a chart that I put
together, I listed the winner of the Silver Slugger Award at each
position in the American League. For several important offensive
categories—from batting average to OPS—I listed each winner’s stats and
league positional rank in the respective metric.
This makes it pretty easy to see which players deserved to win, and which players simply did not.
Morneau did not deserve to
win the award at first base. He had a fine season—.300/.374/.499—but
the voters apparently selected him for his RBI total, 129. This is
unfortunate, because RBIs are a function of opportunity, and are thus a
poor tool on their own for comparing hitters. In the stats that really
have a direct impact on scoring runs and winning (OBP, OPS), he ranked
third and fourth, respectively, at his position.
Kevin Youkilis
should have won instead; he ranked higher in every category except
RBIs. Youkilis simply had fewer RBI chances, and actually had a better
slash stats line with runners in scoring position than the winner. The
Boston infielder batted .374/.445/.708/1.091 OPS with RISP. Morneau,
though he was excellent with men on second and third in his own right,
ended up at .348/.443/.602/1.045 OPS; essentially, he only had more
opportunities.
Carlos Pena, of the Tampa Bay Rays, would also have been a better choice here.
Clearly, then, the Morneau
M.V.P. discussion is fairly misguided, especially considering his
position and defensive indifference.
At second base, one could make the case for Texas Rangers star Ian Kinsler.
Kinsler missed a large chunk of time with a season-ending injury in
August, though. Pedroia had an excellent offensive season, anyway, and
will garner serious consideration for M.V.P. He nearly won a batting
title, hitting .328. But he finished second at the position, behind
Kinsler, in nearly every other category. He was more valuable overall
than his second base counterpart from Texas when defense is factored
into the equation, but offensively—the criteria for this award—he was
not the best candidate.
Rodriguez was an easy choice
at the hot corner. He had a down season by his standards, but led the
position in nearly every category except RBIs. Although he took some
flack, it is hard to criticize any player who posts a.573 slugging
percentage, .965 OPS and ranks in the top 10 in the majors in V.O.R.P.
His partner on the left side of the infield, Jeter, was justified in
winning at shortstop. He is no longer that great in the field, but he
is still a productive hitter; .300/.363/.408 is exceptional at the
position.
Hamilton, the majors’ RBI
leader and Quentin, the frontrunner for M.V.P. until his season-ending
injury, are each deserving of the honor. They each finished in the top
three among A.L. outfielders in OPS. Quentin broke out in his new
surroundings in Chicago, ranking first in home runs and OPS, second in
OBP and fourth in RBIs.
Sizemore is one of the best
all-around outfielders in the majors and has great on-base skills, but
he only finished in the top five in two categories: home runs (tied for
third) and slugging percentage (fifth).
Mauer at catcher was perhaps
the easiest choice at any position. He is a true rarity—a strong
defensive catcher who can hit. He won his second batting title while
getting on base at a plus-.400 clip; he is not only the best-hitting
catcher in his league, but all of baseball.
Huff was a force in
Baltimore. He had one of the best single-season performances of his
career—even better than his 37-home run campaign with Tampa
Bay—finishing with 32 homers, a .912 OPS and 108 RBIs.
But the DH silver bat should have gone to Milton Bradley, who hit .321/.436/.563, with a DH-best .999 OPS.
There were not any major, major blunders, but again the managers and coaches erred in a few of their selections.
To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.
Evan Longoria on Monday was named American League Rookie of the Year by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. The news was hardly surprising, as Longoria, a unanimous selection, had by far the most impact of any rookie in the league. The 23-year-old third baseman batted .272/.343/.531, with a rookie-leading 27 homers and .874 OPS and 85 RBIs. He also provided outstanding defense at third base, playing a major part in the Rays’ dramatic improvement in run prevention.
Longoria collected 60 extra-base hits, which led all rookies in the majors, in only 448 at-bats, solidifying the Tampa Bay offense in the middle of the order. A 2006 first-round selection out of Long Beach State, he became the first player in franchise history to win a national award from the BBWAA after receiving all 28 first-place votes.
Chicago White Sox second baseman Alexei Ramirez finished second in the voting, with 18 second-place votes and 59 points total overall. Ramirez had a fine season in his own right, as he belted 21 home runs, including a rookie record five grand slams, while driving in 77. The second baseman exceeded all expectations in his first year in Chicago by batting .290/.317/.475 overall, but leaves a lot to be desired with his poor on-base skills.
Ellsbury, following an excellent World Series in 2007, was the pre-season favorite. The Boston center fielder struggled a bit, though, finishing the year with a disappointing .336 OBP and .394 slugging percentage. While he played exceptional defense in a number of outfield positions, he lost his starting job to Coco Crisp down the stretch.
Aviles had a fine debut campaign for the Royals, batting .325//354/.480, with 10 home runs and 53 RBIs in 419 at-bats. In fact, he provided one of the few offensive bright spots in Kansas City. At 27, he is obviously old for a rookie and is unlikely to turn into a superstar, but his .834 OPS was exceptional for a shortstop.
Manager Joe Maddon is expected to be named Manager of the Year later this week, as the Rays are beginning to cash in and reap the benefits of their magical worst-to-first season.
If you're scoring at home, I'm now 2-for-2 in my award picks, as Geovany Soto won the award in the N.L. Granted, the R.O.Y. was a pretty easy category in each league this year.
Carlos Pena on Thursday was selected as the Rawlings Gold
Glove Award winner at first base in the American League. Pena, a first-time
selection, posted a .998 fielding percentage in 1,099 chances, which was tied
for first among qualifying first baseman in the majors. In John Dewan’s
plus/minus rating system—perhaps the most effective metric used to evaluate
defensive value—he rated out fifth in the majors at the position, and second
his league, with a +14.
The Rays’ excellent run prevention efforts were the biggest
reason for their remarkable worst-to-first turnaround in the American League
East. Tampa Bay
only allowed 671 runs, nearly a 300-run improvement from its total a season
earlier. The team defense ranked first in the majors in defensive efficiency,
the rate at which batted balls hit into play are converted into outs. The defensive
excellence coincided with dramatic improvements in the bullpen and starting
rotation, helping guide the Rays, with a middling offense, to the A.L. pennant.
Pena was an important part to an outstanding defensive
infield, which featured above-average defenders at each position—Jason Bartlett
(shortstop), Akinori Iwamura (second base) and Evan Longoria (third base). The
left-handed hitting slugger’s defensive contributions normally get overshadowed
by his offensive output—31 home runs, .861 OPS—but he is a solid glove man at
the position and not a bad choice by the managers and coaches.
Longoria was a legitimate candidate to win his own Gold
Glove as well, but lost out to a more deserving candidate, Fielding Bible Award
winner Adrian Beltre of the Seattle Mariners.
Here are the full winners. In a future article, I will offer
my criticisms about some of the undeserving winners (Michael Young, anyone?) in the American Leauge.
P – Mike Mussina, New
York Yankees
C – Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
1B – Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay Rays
2B – Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox
3B – Adrian Beltre, Seattle Mariners
SS – Michael Young, Texas Rangers
OF – Torii Hunter, Minnesota Twins
OF – Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians
OF – Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners
The Sporting News has named Tampa Bay Rays executive Vice President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman as the 2008 Major League Baseball Executive of the Year.
This award was well-deserved, as Friedman is one of the most talented GMs in all of baseball. I have been accused of praising the man too much in the past, so this is all that I am going to write about this.
—According to Buster Olney, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are expected to engage in a heated battle for Mark Teixeira’s services. While there is speculation that the Red Sox are only intending to drive the Yankees’ price up by inquiring about the switch-hitting slugger, Olney believes that Theo Epstein and co. have a legitimate interest.
Teixeira has excellent on-base skills and power, which would fit perfectly in the middle of the Boston lineup. The Red Sox, who led the league with a .358 team on-base percentage, could shift incumbent first baseman Kevin Youkilis to third base. Youikilis, who is a realistic M.V.P. candidate, is one of the majors’ best defensive first baseman, but came up in the minors on the left side of the infield and did an admirable job filling in for Mike Lowell at third base down the stretch. There is no telling if Lowell will ever regain his 2007 form again, and he may be a likely trade candidate if Boston does indeed sign Teixeira.
—Jake Peavy is not the only member of the San Diego Padres on the trading block. According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, the organization is exploring trade offers for shortstop Khalil Greene, who hit only .213/.260/.339 and struck out 100 times in 105 games for the Padres this season. Greene, who is due to make $6.5-million next season, will become a free agent after 2009. He might be a good buy-low option for a club in need of a shortstop, anyway, and a change of scenery might be in his best interest.
As Tom Krasovic writes, “Relations between Greene and the Padres probably are not ideal. After Greene fractured his left hand on July 30, when he wacked a storage chest at Petco Park following a foulball of the shin and his 100th strikeout, the Padres stopped paying his salary, according to the players union. A dispute between the Padres and the union ensued, and though the Padres eventually paid Greene his remaining salary, the club filed a grievance in an attempt to recoup up to $1.47 million in salary. Greene left the club some two weeks before the season ended.”
According to Krasovic, the Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds and Detroit Tigers have all expressed interest.
The Reds’ team defense was atrocious in 2008, ranking 29th in the majors in defensive efficiency—the rate at which batted balls hit into play are converted into outs. Adding a sure-handed defender at such an important defensive position potentially could do wonders. The Reds could also move Brandon Phillips, one of the majors’ best defensive second baseman, to his natural position, shortstop, if they do not make a deal to upgrade at the position.
The Tigers, after the failed Edgar Renteria experiment, are also in need of a starting shortstop.
The Padres, however, do not have an immediate replacement at short, and will likely address the hole on the market if Greene is indeed dealt.
—Will the Reds go from worst-to-first in 2009, following in the Tampa Bay Rays’ footsteps? John Erardi of the Cincinnati Enquireris not so sure.
—In a post the other day, I briefly touched upon the recently released 2008 Fielding Bible Awards. Well, I forgot to mention that the panelists voted Derek Jeter as the worst defensive shortstop in the majors, as mentioned in this New York Postarticle.
A group that tracks every ball hit in the majors says Derek Jeter is the worst fielder in baseball.
Stats guru Bill James, author of the "Baseball Abstract," and a panel of nine other voters, ranked Jeter 22nd among all major-league shortstops, with one calling Jeter "the least effective defensive player in the major leagues, at any position."
Jeter received one 10th-place vote in balloting for the 2008 Fielding Bible Awards, announced yesterday. One panel member comes from Baseball Info Solutions (BIS), a group that ... well, just say they do their research.
"They watched film of every major-league game, and had recorded every ball off the bat by the direction in which it was hit [the vector], the type of hit [groundball, flyball, line-drive, popup, etc.] and by how hard the ball was hit [softly hit, medium, hard hit]," according to James. ... "They had analyzed the outcomes to determine who was best at turning hit balls into outs," James wrote. "One of their conclusions was that Jeter was probably the least effective defensive player in the major leagues, at any position."
—Joe Smith of the St. Petersburg Timesconducted an interesting Q & A with Rays manager Joe Maddon.
The Tampa Bay Rays excelled at run prevention in 2008, with a solid pitching staff and excellent team defense. The Rays’ defensive unit, in fact, posted the majors’ highest defensive efficiency rating, converting a higher percentage of batted balls in play into outs than any team in the game.
With that being said, it is no surprise that Tampa Bay had several players recognized in the recently released Fielding Bible Awards.
Carl Crawford was the only Rays player to win an award outright, though, as he was voted the premier defensive left fielder in the league.
Shortstop Jason Bartlett, who helped solidify the Rays’ middle infield after coming over from an offseason deal with the Minnesota Twins, received 13 votes at shortstop. Bartlett was voted as Team M.V.P. by the local chapter of the BBWAA, in large part to due to his outstanding range and defensive excellence.
A lot is being made about the Tampa Bay Rays’ solid core of young talent at the major league level.
It is hard to talk about the Rays without
mentioning the current core of cost-effective, team-controlled
youngsters who led the franchise to the World Series. Everyone has
heard of former first-round picks Evan Longoria and David Price by now, of course.
But
here is a brief list, in no particular order, of several of the
remaining high-level prospects in the Tampa Bay organization who are
not yet household names for non-prospect fanatics.
Wade Davis, RHP—Davis’
stock took a bit of his this year, as he struggled to consistently
command his pitches. He remains a high-level prospect, though, thanks
to his solid movement on a low-90s fastball and an excellent curve
ball. The right-hander has not shown the ability yet to consistently
command his other offerings, a developing change-up and cut fastball.
Davis began the season in the Southern League, where he went 9-6 with a 3.85 ERA and 81-to-42 K/W ratio in 19 starts for the Montgomery Biscuits. He was a bit unlucky—with a high BABIP—and allowed nearly a hit per inning, but flashed signs of brilliance. He then earned a promotion to Triple-A in July, joining the Durham Bulls.
He put together a nice string of quality outings for the Bulls, going
4-2 with a 2.72 ERA and 55-to-24 K/W ratio in nine outings. The
difference, though it was a small sample size, had a lot to do with
luck, as his BABIP decreased and he limited opponents to a .205 batting
average.
Davis will spend most, if not all,
of the 2009 season in a starting role again at Durham. The 6’5 former
fourth-round pick, though, could join the Rays at some point if he can
continue to improve his consistency.
Jeremy Hellickson, RHP—Hellickson
does not have the prototypical body for a big-league pitcher, at 6’1,
185. The 21-year-old right-hander, though, is a legitimate major league
prospect. He has an above-average fastball and two solid secondary
pitches but what differentiates him is his excellent command.
Hellickson
tore up the Florida State League this spring, going 7-1 with a 2.00 ERA
and stellar 83-to-5 K/W ratio in 14 starts. Upon his promotion to
Double-A Montgomery, though, he ran into some difficulties, allowing 15
home runs in 75.1 innings pitched. While he was prone to giving up the
long ball, he rebounded nicely after a few rough appearances to finish
his stint with the Biscuits 4-4 with a 3.94 ERA. His command remained
exceptional—79-to-13 K/W ratio—but he posted an opponents’ batting
average of .292. While he lacks a true out pitch, he still profiles as
a solid middle-of-the rotation starter.
Reid Brignac, Shortstop—Brignac
has made tremendous strides defensively the past two seasons.
Considered the best defensive shortstop in the International League
this year, he seems destined to stick at the position in the majors for
years to come. While Jason Bartlett
is currently manning the position effectively—defensively, that is—and
is locked up for a few more years, the 22-year-old Louisiana native has
a chance to serve as a stopgap until number one overall pick Tim Beckham, who has a real chance to remain at the position, is ready.
Brignac
projects to hit for power at the major league level as well. Since his
breakout offensive performance in the California League in 2006,
however, he has regressed severely at the plate as he jumped two
levels. His on-base skills, in fact, leave a bit to be desired, and he
took another step back in his first full season with the Durham Bulls
in 2008. He batted only .250/.299/.412, drawing only 25 walks while
striking out 93 times. He will need to improve his plate discipline,
but, with his above-average defense, he seems ready to latch on with
the Rays in the near future.
Barnese,
who posted a 2.45 ERA and 84-to24 K/W ratio for Hudson Valley in the
New York Penn League this summer, induces a ton of groundball outs with
a solid, low-90s sinking fastball. He will look to make a major leap in
his development next year, as he makes the jump to full-season ball.
Beckham
has tremendous tools, and scouts feel that he can remain at shortstop.
At 18 years old, though, he has a long way to go in terms of
development before reaching the majors. The Georgia prep prospect is
still a bit raw, as he did not begin playing baseball competitively
until he was 14. While it is foolish to read too much into a prospect’s
short-season professional debut, he did not exactly set the Appalachian
League on fire—.243/.297/.345, in 177 at-bats. He has tremendous
upside, which prompted the Rays to select him with their second
consecutive first overall pick over more expensive college options like
Pedro Alvarez and Buster Posey,
and is an exceptional athlete. Look for Beckham, who earned a
late-season promotion to Hudson Valley, to begin ’09 in the South
Atlantic League.
Jaso has excellent on-base
skills and can really hit, but has yet to show that he can handle his
catching responsibilities effectively. The organization, it seems, is
not sold on his defense, but he has a career minor league line
of.273/.391/.426 and .817 OPS.
Jennings had a
season to forget, as injuries prevented him from taking another giant
leap forward in his development. The former Alabama
quarterback recruit was looking to build upon a breakout 2007 campaign,
in which he hit .315/.401/.465 in the Sally League, and established
himself as one of the premier outfield prospects in the minors. An
athletic, physically gifted athletic specimen, he took a major step
forward as baseball player in ’07, swiping 45 bags while improving his
plate discipline.
Unfortunately, Jennings
began the season in extended spring training and sat out the first two
months with back and shoulder injuries. When he was healthy enough, he
reported to the Florida State League, hoping to stay on the field
without any issues. After only 24 games roaming center field for Vero
Beach, however, he re-injured his shoulder, requiring season-ending
surgery. He should be ready at the start of spring training and remains
a top outfield prospect.
Niemann may get
traded this offseason, following a solid, injury-free performance in
the International League. His star has dimmed, but he finally made his
major league debut in April, posted a .3.59 ERA in 24 starts at Durham
and consistently sat in the mid-90s with his fastball in an encouraging
year in which he was linked to numerous trade rumors. He tends to get
lost in the translation, with the Rays’ apparent surplus of pitching,
but several organizations would love to have him in their system. The
former Rice star no longer
projects as a front-line stud, but he has a chance to turn into a solid
number three or four guy in the big leagues. Out of options, he should
finally stick in the majors for good next year.
McGee,
lost early in the spring after tearing his ulnar collateral ligament,
underwent successful Tommy John surgery—another James Andrews
patient—and is out until the middle of ’09. Before the injury, the
flamethrowing lefty was regarded as one of the premier pitching
prospects in one of the majors’ deepest farm systems. According to
Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon, he may end up as a dominant closer for
the Rays.
There are certainly others as well—from Fernando Perez to Heath Rollins—and expect to find a complete top prospect list in the next couple of weeks.
With
the Rays’ ability to make cost-effective roster decisions, a solid core
of young stars locked up for the long term, and with several of the
aforementioned prospects close to reaching the show, it is clear that
the Rays are not a one-year wonder. Many were critical when the Rays
refused to give up a few of these prospects in deals at the trade
deadline, but they made it to the Fall Classic without having to deal
away any cheap, team-controlled assets. While the American League East
will always provide a tremendous challenge—with the financial
superpowers—the Rays seem equipped to make a nice little run.
To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.
Tampa Bay Rays center fielder B.J. Upton took a lot of heat this year. Upton, benched twice for a lack of hustle by manager Joe Maddon, drew the ire of many Tampa Bay fans for his seemingly lackadaisical approach to the game. As his performance has showed in the postseason, however, the Rays would not have made it to this point without him.
The road to stardom has taken longer than expected for Upton, a former infielder who was the premier prep player in the nation back in 2002. Years of switching positions— he remained at shortstop for several seasons after getting drafted second overall back in ’02—may have set back his development offensively. He had moved around the diamond so many times, the St. Petersburg Times even featured a “Where’s B.J.? section in its sports page during spring training in 2007. Expected to fill a super utility role, similar to Chone Figgins, he finally found a home in center field after spending the first month of the season as the Rays’ full-time second baseman.
While the constant position shifting affected his offensive output, Upton finally established himself as an impact hitter at the major league level when he found a permanent home in center that May. At only 23 years old, he displayed an advanced approach at the plate and excellent on-base skills, batting .300/.386/.508, with 24 home runs, an .894 OPS and 82 RBIs. The speedster also swiped 22 bags, becoming one of the youngest players in history to join the 20-20 club.
In addition to his fine offensive season, Upton made strides in his outfield his defense as well. Using his tremendous athleticism, he quickly learned the nuances of the position on his way to emerging as one of the premier defensive outfielders in the American League.
Entering the spring training this March, the bar was then set high for Upton, who was expected to build upon his breakout campaign, hit for more power and emerge into an elite star. A shoulder injury, which went unreported until late August, prevented him from ever getting fully comfortable at the plate, however, and made it difficult for him to turn on any pitches thrown inside. His lack of power, combined with a few mental gaffes, made him an easy target for the boo birds at Tropicana Field—even though the Rays were enjoying their finest season in franchise history.
Perhaps if the critics knew about his shoulder problem sooner, Upton would not have been such a misguided favorite target for local talk radio hosts. It was fairly apparent that something was not right, as nearly all of his nine homers during the regular season were hit to the opposite field. He simply could not do anything with an inside pitch, yet his did not stop the talk show callers, and even hosts, from bashing his every move.
Although Upton did not replicate his 20-homer performance from ’07, though, he still had a fine, underappreciated season at the plate. In fact, most of the flack was not merited, despite what was said about him on ESPN. Outside of R.J. Anderson over at DraysBay, most writers considered his season a disappointment. In reality, he was actually one of the Rays’ most productive hitters in an offense that finished ranked in the middle of the pack in several important offensive categories. He batted only .273, but—due to his excellent ability to get on base, thus not making outs—his on-base percentage remained at a solid .383 clip and he led the club with 97 walks. His OPS dipped more than 100 points (.784), a clear result of his severe drop in slugging percentage due to the decrease in power production—only nine home runs.
Upton also improved his defense in center field, making out-of-range plays on a consistent basis. He simply glides out there, which enables him to roam the gaps with grace. His smoothness is sometimes mistaken for a lack of hustle, but there are not too many players who can man the position as effectively as him. The Rays made the jump from worst-to-first in team defensive efficiency—the rate at which batted balls hit into play are converted into outs—and his defensive contributions played a major role. Along with left fielder Carl Crawford and right fielder Gabe Gross, he anchored one of the majors’ strongest defensive outfield corps.
To some, though, none of this seemed to matter—until the Rays took down the Chicago White Sox in the Division Series, that is.
Upton, after an 0-for-5 showing in the opener, finally regained his power stroke, hitting three bombs (one-third of his season total) in the series. Sitting out on several BP sessions down the stretch, it turns out, helped him to regain some strength in his shoulder, and he finally felt comfortable enough at the plate to turn on the ball.
The Rays’ most valuable position player in the postseason, he continued to pull the inside pitch, make pitchers pay for making mistakes and produce for the Tampa Bay offense in a stellar performance in the American League Championship Series against the Boston Red Sox. Using his bat and legs, he was the key offensive contributor for a lineup that combined to slug .508 and hit 16 homers in the ALCS. While it is too small of a sample size to get too worked up about, he posted an impressive line of .321/.394/.786 and 1.180 OPS while blasting four homers in seven games against Boston to help lead the Rays to the World Series.
Upton has simply been in the thick of things for the Rays in nearly every postseason game. The youngest player to hit seven jacks in the playoffs, he is currently slugging .662, with a 1.000 OPS, 16 RBIs and six stolen bases in 16 games overall.
The player who was unfairly targeted has shown what he can do on the national stage. He has provided several key hits, made a number of sensational catches and gunned down several runners at the plate. His performance has been tremendous, in all facets of the game, as he has shown off all of the weapons in his toolbox. In fact, he is only two home runs away from passing Barry Bonds and Troy Glaus for the most long balls in a single postseason.
Upton is not going to lead the league in homers next year, as it is important not to get carried away with the sudden power surge. Failing to reach double digits in the category, however, was an aberration, and he should improve his power totals with a healthy shoulder—he is expected to have offseason surgery—in 2009. Combined with his excellent approach, discipline, on-base skills and speed, he is going to be a dynamic offensive force in a Rays uniform in ’09 and for years to come. Beating his younger brother, Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Justin, to the 30-30 club is not out of the question, either. Not only that, it seems he is destined to add a few Gold Glove and Bill James Fielding Bible awards in the near future.
To put it bluntly, B.J. Upton has a chance to turn into one of the best all-around players in baseball. While he may be tough for the organization to lock up to a long-term deal like they did with Evan Longoria, he is perhaps the most important position player on the Rays.
