It was depressing to learn that the talented writers at Fire Joe Morgan are calling it quits after years of providing entertaining criticism of the mainstream sports media. From the Joe chats to food metaphors, Ken Tremendous, Junior and dak used humor to spread the word about sabermetrics. During college, visiting the site was one of the first things that I would do every morning. Now, college is over and FJM is not more. The way I see it, things can only go up from here.

Deadspin posted an entertaining, though sad, exit interview with the guys, each Hollywood writers. It is a great read.

Michael Schur, who writes under the pseudonym Ken Tremendous, has been a lead writer on The Office and played Dwight Schrute's cousin, Mose, in a few guest cameos. It is going to be hard to watch the show in the future without thinking about David Eckstein or Darin Erstad.

*Jeff Passan, a survivor, offered an excellent tribute to the blog at Yahoo! Sports.

*Peter Gammons has a new post up on his blog at ESPN.com. Gammons offers some interesting insights. He wonders why Hanley Ramirez finished 11th in the voting. I completely agree with him on that front.

Ramirez is not a great defensive shortstop, but, considering his position, he is a stud offensive player. He batted .301/.400/.540, with a 146 OPS+ and 33 home runs as the anchor of the Marlins' power-hitting infield. He also scored 125 runs.

*Albert Pujols clearly deserved to win the award, but the voters erred in a lot of their other secondary votes. It was surprising that Lance Berkman did not garner more serious consideration as well; he finished fifth.

Within the piece, Gammons also says that the Atlanta Braves are still in the running in the Jake Peavy sweepstakes. Frank Wren, according to the blog post, is intent on getting a deal done. There is also word that the Yankees are not in the running. In my opinion, it would be unwise for Peavy, the ace of the San Diego Padres, to accept a deal to the American League, where his numbers would surely suffer.

*According to Jon Heyman, Pedro Martinez is planning to pitch in 2009. Ben Reiter of SI.com ranked Martinez 44 in his Top 50 available free agents. He is an injury risk, of course, but his agent told Heyman that he is fully healthy for the first time in a while. After missing the first four months of the season with a hamstring injury, he posted a 75 ERA+ in 20 starts for the New York Mets. I had Martinez ranked higher in my Top 50, which I will be releasing later this week.

*Jeremy Affeldt signed with the San Fransisco Giants on Monday. Affeldt was one of the premier relief pitchers available in this free agent class, so credit the Giants for locking him for only two years, at a relatively cheap price of $8-million. As Dave Cameron writes, the left-hander is seriously underrated, and is coming off an excellent performance with the Cincinnati Reds. He posted a 3.33 ERA in 74 appearances, striking out 80 in 78.0 innings pitched. His 9.19 K/9 rate was the best of his career as his average fastball velocity jumped from 92.4 to 94.6, according to FanGraphs.

Brian Sabean deserves some praise for locking up one of the under-the-radar prizes in this class. Sabean has had some blunders, from the infamous trade with the the Minnesota Twins to the Barry Zito fiasco, but he pulled off a steal here. It looks like that Eckerd College degree has done him some good after all.

*Pujols won his second M.V.P. on Monday, and Joe Posnanski writes that it is time to give him due credit for his out-of-this-world-abilities as a baseball player. I have received some emails arguing why Ryan Howard deserved to win the award.

Although I touched on this in an earlier post, let us look at the data one last time from a comment I left on the other article.

Pujols’ monthly performance:

April—.365/.523/.594/1.117
May—.373/.454/.706/.1.160
June—.302/.444/.558/.1.002
July—.347/.413/.564/.977
August—.398/.491/.745/1.236
September—.321/.427/.702/.1.129


Howard’s monthly performance:

April—.168/.298/.347/.645
May—.238/.344/.590/.934
June—.234/.287/.439/.726
July—.311/.366/.612/.978
August—.213/.328/.463/.791
September—.352/.422/.852/.1.274


Howard was better in one month, September, but not by much. Take that away and he would be hovering around near league average slash stat numbers at the position. He was brutal in August, and a non-factor for half of the year. Do those games not count?

Counting stats are misleading, context-driven. In the stats that count, Pujols had better numbers. He had more hits, doubles, walks, stolen bases, runs extra-base hits, and a higher BA, OBP, slugging, OPS. In the advanced metrics, he ranked first in the league—and considerably higher than Howard—in adjusted OPS+, runs created, adjusted batting runs, batting wins and offensive winning percentage (essentially, a team of nine Pujols in the lineup would have had the highest winning percentage of any other player).

Pujols also had a 98.7 VORP—value over replacement player—compared to Howard’s 36.6. That does not account for defense, but is great at distinguishing real offensive value. Nearly two-thirds higher.

Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins each finished with higher totals in VORP on the Philadelphia Phillies, as did pitchers Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer. The stat is not perfect, but is pretty solid at determining actual value, not perceived value—like if we took him away, and so forth.

The Phillies still would have been dangerous even with an average offensive 1B—Mike Jacobs, for instance—instead of Howard, who was not the M.V.P. of his own team let alone the entire league.

Pujols also grades out as a better defender in every metric.

Your honor, the defense rests.

*It was shocking that Utley, who hit 32 home runs and played exceptional defense at the keystone, finished 15th in the voting. Cameron agrees.

*And, on a sad note, former Rice star Wade Townsend underwent surgery on his right shoulder this week. Towsend, the Tampa Bay Rays' first-round pick back in 2005, has battled injuries since signing, and is now likely to miss the 2009 season. His days in the organization may be over as a result. The 25-year-old right-hander made three starts in the Arizona Fall League before sustaining the injury.

The writers got it right.

Albert Pujols was a pretty easy choice for the 2008 National League Most Valuable Player.

In the end, it came down to a two-man race. Pujols edged Ryan Howard, the 2006 M.V.P., in the voting by 61 points to win the award for the second time of his career.

While the right player ended up on top, the vote margin should have been a lot larger. The gap in actual value between the two first basemen was stark.

Pujols posted considerably better numbers in the stats that have the most correlation with producing runs, OBP and slugging percentage. He registered totals of .462 and .653 in these categories, respectively. Howard finished with a less-than-stellar .339 OBP and .543 slugging percentage.

Pujols also finished second in the league in batting average, hitting .357. Howard, on other hand, hit only .251 for the year. At the All-Star break, his line was even worse than that: .234/.324/.508.

Equally as telling, Pujols ranked first in his league with a 1.114 OPS and staggering 190 OPS+. OPS has its flaws as a statistic, but still is a useful way for determining offensive value.

Howard finished 14th with an .881 OPS.

The Philadelphia star garnered some serious consideration for his counting stats and excellent performance in September. He led the league with 46 home runs and 146 RBIs, of course, and delivered a bunch of key hits down the stretch.

The HR, RBI totals and nice finish are the fundamental points in the case for Howard, especially since his team made it to the postseason. Pujols ended up with 37 home runs and 116 RBIs while his team finished in fourth place in the N.L. Central.

However, counting stats are derived from context and do not tell the full story.

Howard had nine more homers than Pujols, but nearly 100 more at-bats. He also had more RBIs, the function of opportunity. With high-OBP players Jimmy Rollins and Chase Ultey setting the table ahead of him, he was given 50 more chances with RISP and nearly 100 with men on base than Pujols.

Pujols was actually the better hitter with RISP, batting .323/.523/.678/.1.201 OPS. Given the same opportunities, he would have easily paced the circuit in RBI. Howard, who was also excellent with men on base, was not quite as good in the same situation: .320/.439/.589/1.028. He also struck out nearly 200 times.

Plus, defense is a major factor here as well, since there is more to baseball than just hitting. Pujols deserved to win the Gold Glove at first base in the N.L., losing out to an undeserving selection in Adrian Gonzalez. He did, however, pick up his third consecutive Fielding Bible Award as the best defender at the position in either league, which is more of an honor. Howard graded out as below average with the glove.

Pujols is a much better all-around player, and it is not even close. He said it himself that a player must play for a contending team to be considered for this award. What he said is not relevant, though, and, in my opinion, was a misguided statement. The man can hit, but is wrong on this front.

Often times, players are unfairly left out of awards like this because of the poor performance of their teammates. The Cardinals were not very good in 2008, but still managed to remain in contention until the end of August. If Pujols was not on the roster, St. Louis would have been out of the race back in June.

Howard played for a winner, because the Phillies' roster was loaded with several other potent hitters and stars. In fact, one could make a strong case that he was not even the most valuable player on his own team, as Brad Lidge, 41-for-41 in save opportunities, and Chase Utley also had tremendous years.

Utley, in particular, seems more worthy of this award when defense is a factor. He graded out as the most effective defender at the keystone while hitting 32 home runs. He also produced a higher batting average, OBP and OPS than Howard at a more important infield position.

Howard was huge in September, hitting .352/.422/.852/1.274 OPS. He also belted 11 homers, several of which were game-changing blasts. He truly picked the best time to get hot while, leaving an image of greatness in the voters' minds when they had to turn in their ballots.

Last time I checked, though, the games in every other month count, too. A win in May does not receive the same attention, but means just as much in the standings as a victory in a pennant race. With this in mind, it is hard to ignore that Howard hovered around the Mendoza line for much of the year and was not a factor at all in April, June and August. In all honesty, there are at least five more deserving candidates.

Pujols was consistent throughout the year. He produced at least a .300 batting average, .400 OBP, .550 slugging percentage and .970 OPS in every month, which is pretty incredible. He also provided several huge hits down the stretch, hitting a sensational .366/.456/.706 in the second half. Essentially, if Pujols and Howard had switched places in spring training, the Phillies would have won the N.L. East by around 10-to-12 games, running away with the division in August instead of having to clinch in the final week.

In other words, if Pujols played for the Phillies, he would have been a near unanimous selection. Why should Pujols be penalized because he did not have better teammates?

The right man won. Looking at objective data, though, the victory should have been more of a landslide.

Imagine what Pujols will be able to do with a healthy elbow.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

In my opinion, choosing award selections is one of the most enjoyable parts of writing about baseball (click here to compare my mid-season award picks). And I just could not help myself,  so I decided to update my picks back  from September. Throughout the week, I will offer my analysis on the actual winners as the awards are announced, with the R.O.Y awards coming on Monday. Here are my final picks.

American League

Most Valuable Player:

Justin Morneau is a name commonly being thrown around in the discussion for MVP. Traditional voters are infatuated with one statistic above all others—RBIs—and Morneau finished second in the league, behind Josh Hamilton, with 129. In fact, his high RBI total was the biggest reason why he won the award back in 2006, when there were several stronger options—including his teammate, Joe Mauer. Still, he was a key cog in a Twins’ offense that was tremendous with runners in scoring position (even if some pundits dismiss it as a statistical fluke), hitting .302/.375/.502, with 21 homers. But I still do not think that he deserves the award this year, as Mauer once again was more valuable to his team; Morneau does not even rank in the top 30 in the league in OPS.

Regardless of how you feel about OPS as a stat, an MVP candidate at a corner infield position should at least rank in the Top 10. Period.

Mauer, who won his second batting title, finished the season hitting .328/.413/.451, with 44 extra-base hits, 85 RBIs and 84 walks. When you consider that he also ranks among the premier defensive catchers in the game and has received plus scores on how he has helped handle and worked with a young group of Minnesota pitchers, it makes it all the more impressive. At such a defense-first position, his offensive output was outstanding, though, at 25, he still has room to continue to hit for more power.

To put into simple terms: finding 20-homer, 120-RBI, sub-.900 OPS production from a first baseman like Morneau is much easier to find than a catcher who fields his position well and can post a .400-plus on-base percentage and .864 OPS like Mauer.

Cleveland Indians outfielder Grady Sizemore put together a fine season as well, but will be hurt by the weak underperformance of his teammates. Sizemore, playing an excellent center field, hit .268/.374/.502, with 33 home runs and 90 RBIs. Although he will not get many votes because his team finished so far out of contention, he added as much value to the Indians as any of the aforementioned players. Is it his fault that Trafis Hafner got hurt? Or Victor Martinez? Did he make Fausta Carmona regress so severely? No, all he did was perform, providing top-notch defense and an .876 OPS and 101 runs scored. The young star places fourth on my make-believe ballot, and perhaps deserves to be ranked higher.

Dustin Pedroia, the diminutive second sacker for the Boston Red Sox, is a fine candidate as well. Although he is generously listed at 5’9—he is closer to 5’6— Pedroia, who finished second in the league in hitting, performed like a 6’4, 220-pound slugger, posting a line of .326/.376/.493 and bashing 17 home runs.

Pedroia also made tremendous improvements in his defense at a keystone position in every defensive metric out there, even winning his first Gold Glove. And when the injury bug bit the Boston lineup, he picked up the slack to help the Red Sox hold their strong lock on the AL Wild Card, delivering several huge hits down the stretch while playing his excellent defense at second base. Like Mauer, he posted an impressive OPS number (.869) considering his defensive position. Although he would not get my vote, he seems like the likely winner, since his on-field production comes close to matching the story.

Still, in my opinion, another Boston player is more deserving—Kevin Youkilis.

Youkilis’ .958 OPS was good for fourth in the AL. Unlike the players who finished ranked ahead of him—Milton Bradley (only 414 at-bats), Quentin and Alex Rodriguez), he has a realistic chance to take home the honors. Justifiably so, too. He finished the year hitting .312/.390/.569, with 29 home runs and 115 RBIs, adding to the legend of the “Greek God of Walks.” Not only did he post strong offensive numbers, he played excellent defense at first and third base (filling in when Mike Lowell went down) and was a constant presence in the Red Sox’s lineup when several of his teammates were on the disabled list. When compared to Morneau, he added substantially greater real value offensively while giving his club better glove work and actually hit better with RISP.

Honorable mention also goes to Bradley, who led the league in OBP and OPS but missed too much time due to injury, Hamilton, who paced the circuit with 130 RBIs, and Rodriguez.

My picks:

1. Kevin Youkilis

2. Joe Mauer

3. Dustin Pedroia

4. Grady Sizemore

Cy Young:

Unlike the MVP race, this was a pretty easy choice here. Cliff Lee went from a demotion to the minors to the best pitcher in the league in less than a calendar year. Lee was truly brilliant, posting a 22-3 W/L mark, the lowest ERA (2.54) in the AL and a ridiculous 170-to-34 K/W ratio. The Cleveland Indians left-hander proved that his early-season success—he went 12-2 with a 2.31 ERA before the All-Star break, earning the start at Yankee Stadium—was not a fluke. He was nearly perfect in the second half by winning 10 decisions as Cleveland played its way to a respectable finish. To sum up his slam-dunk case: he finished the season ranked first in the league in ERA, winning percentage (.880) and wins, second in complete games (4), innings pitched (223.1) and WHIP (1.11), and ninth in strikeouts.

Although Lee is the clear-cut winner, there is a decent case to be made for Roy Halladay as well. Halladay, one of three pitchers in the league to win 20 games, anchored a Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff that finished with the lowest group ERA on the circuit. As he does every year, it seems, he continued to put up zeroes on the scoreboard in Toronto, posting a 2.78 ERA in a league-leading 246.0 innings pitched.

While CC Sabathia threw his share of complete games for the Milwaukee Brewers, Doc Halladay has him beat. Quite amazingly considering how few starters go a full nine innings these days, he finished the season with nine complete games on his own. There are a lot of teams that would be happy to have that total dispersed among the entire starting rotation, let alone one pitcher. Pitching in the ridiculously competitive East division, he also led the league in WHIP (1.05), using his excellent control and command to shut offenses down every fifth day.

Jon Lester had an outstanding season for Boston, going 16-6 with a 3.21 ERA and 152-to-66 K/W ratio. Lester, who threw a no-hitter against the Kansas City Royals in May, finished fourth in the league in ERA and winning percentage and seventh in innings pitched while limiting opponents to a .256/.318/.368 line. The 24-year-old southpaw, who emerged as the new ace of the Red Sox’s staff, has a chance to take home some votes.

Credit also must be given to Mike Mussina, who joined the 20-win club for the first time of his potentially Hall-of-Fame career. Mussina had one of his best seasons ever to anchor a New York rotation decimated with injuries, going 20-9 with a 3.37 ERA for a defensively challenged Yankees team.

Lester’s teammate, Daisuke Matsuzaka, should garner some votes as well, after finishing 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA. Matsuzaka, however, consistently struggled with his command, walking 94 in 167.2 innings, and does not deserve to be seriously considered.

Closer Francisco Rodriguez picked up 62 saves in 69 chances for the Los Angeles Angels, breaking Bobby Thigpen’s previous single-season mark of 57. Lost in the media hype, though, he also set the benchmark for save chances, a function of opportunity. Due to the Angels’ weak offense and emphasis on small-ball, the right-hander was given a greater number of opportunities to hold a lead in low-scoring games than any other pitcher in baseball history.

Among major league relievers who registered more than 40.0 innings pitched, Rodriguez did not finish in the top 15 in ERA (19th) or K/9 (19th), top 40 in opponents’ OPS (42), top 60 in WHIP (69) or top 100 in K/W ratio. The flame throwing right-hander, who posted an opponents’ line of .216/.314/.316, led the league in only two statistics, saves and save opportunities. While he grabbed headlines for breaking the record, it is worth mentioning that he was the only pitcher who was given enough chances to even come within four saves of the previous all-time mark—Jose Valverde finished second in SVO with 52. for these reasons, there are about four relievers who should be considered ahead of him.

My picks:

1. Cliff Lee

2. Roy Halladay

3. Jon Lester

4. Mike Mussina

Rookie of the Year:

Evan Longoria is perhaps an easier choice than Lee in the Cy Young category. After Longoria was promoted to the Rays in early April, he quickly emerged as one of the best young third baseman in the game. Although he missed some time on the disabled down the stretch, he put up excellent numbers for a rookie in only 131 games: 27 home runs, 85 RBIs, .874 OPS. Not to mention, he played excellent defense at third base, allowing Akinori Iwamura to move across the diamond to second. His arrival, combined with a few other defensive changes, enabled the Rays to make the move from worst-to-first in team defense. The Rays’ run prevention efforts, in fact, are the ultimate reason why the Rays won the AL East for the first time in their 11-year history.

Longoria’s play at third base was a major reason why the club converted more balls put into play into outs than any other team in the majors, as the Rays finished the regular season with the best defensive efficiency rating. Throw in a slash stats line of .272/.343/.531 and a lot of big hits along the way, and you get Tampa Bay’s real MVP—with apologies to Jason Bartlett—and the easy choice for top rookie.

Fans in Chicago probably have a different take, though, as Alexei Ramirez has exceeded all expectations with his first-year performance for the White Sox. Ramirez, a nifty defender in his own right and a sensational athlete, belted 21 homers, including a rookie record five grand slams, and 77 RBIs However, he struggled to get on base enough (.317 OBP, only 18 walks ) and was not nearly as productive as Longoria.

Armando Galarraga deserves some love here, too. While Dontrelle Willis was seemingly walking nearly ever hitter, Gary Sheffield was sitting near replacement-level, the Tigers’ pitching staff was in shambles, Carlos Guillen showed that he could not handle either corner infield spot defensively, Brandon Inge played out of position and Justin Verlander was busy dropping 17 decisions, the disappointing version of the 2008 Tigers had one pleasant surprise in Galarraga. The rookie right-hander went 13-6 with a 3.68 ERA, 126 punchouts and a 1.19 WHIP in 28 starts.

Staying in the Central, rookie infielder Mike Aviles had a fine debut season for the Royals. Aviles batted .325//354/.480, with 10 home runs and 53 RBIs in 419 at-bats, providing one of the few offensive bright spots in Kansas City. At 27, he, is obviously old for a rookie and is unlikely to turn into a superstar. Still, an .834 OPS for a shortstop is quite impressive, and will be difficult for some voters to overlook.

A case could be made for Joba Chamberlain and Jacoby Ellsbury, pre-season favorites, as well, in addition to Minnesota speedster Denard Span and Oakland Athletics reliever Brad Ziegler, whose scoreless innings streak provided one of the year’s highlights.

My picks:

1. Evan Longoria

2. Alexei Ramirez

3. Armando Galarraga

4. Joba Chamberlain

Manager of the Year:

Ron Gardenhire did a tremendous job, yet again, getting the Twins to play hard day in, day out, helping his team exceed all expectations with the departure of Torii Hunter and Johan Santana. My pick, though, is Joe Maddon, who instituted a culture of winning into the Rays’ clubhouse. Every move, it seems, worked out for Maddon during the regular season as the Rays went from the joke of the league to AL East champions. He did a heck of a job, really, and was able to motivate his players to buy into the 9=8 concept—nine players play together as a team to become one of the eight playoff teams. Well, though he received some tremendous help by a front office that provided him with a much-improved roster designed to shine at run prevention, he did exactly that.

My picks:

1. Joe Maddon

2. Ron Gardenhire

3. Terry Francona

4. Mike Scioscia

National League:

Most Valuable Player:

The term valuable is interpreted loosely when it comes to baseball, and many people think that a player must play for a contending team to garner attention for the award. After all, a last-place club could still finish last even if their star first baseman did not mash 50 homers, right? I do not necessarily agree with that mindset, though, as often times too many legitimate candidates miss out on winning awards like this because of the poor performances of their teammates.

With that being said, it is hard not to seriously think about naming CC Sabathia the MVP in the National League after his masterful performance in the second half. Although Sabathia did not spend even half of a season in the league, he was sensational (insert hyperbolic word here) in his new surroundings, going 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA. Not only that, he practically resurrected the Brewers’ quest to reach the postseason for the first time since 1982 on his own. If Sabathia did not provide so many quality innings for Milwaukee, it is hard to imagine the Brew Crew even sniffing the Wild Card down the stretch. Sure, he was only with his team from July on, and was only able to pitch every (for him, third perhaps) fifth day, but the larger-than-life lefty was otherworldly.

Although the Brewers parted ways with top hitting prospect Matt LaPorta, the return on investment—just by ending the playoff drought—was well worth it, as Sabathia turned in one of the best post All-Star break runs in baseball history. I would not vote for him, but he deserves to at least be in the discussion.

Ditto for Manny Ramirez, who had a similar effect on the Los Angeles Dodgers. After coming over from Boston at the trade deadline, Ramirez singlehandedly transformed Los Angeles’s lineup from average to dynamic. He posted Nintendo-like numbers in L.A., hitting .396/.489/.743, for a whopping 1.232 OPS, with 17 homers and 53 RBIs. As ugly as his departure from the Red Sox was, he was also reportedly a much better teammate, too, helping to add a new sense of calm in the Dodgers’ clubhouse.

Ramirez made the difference as the Dodgers' young talent began to flourish, helping Joe Torre’s club win the weak N.L West division with 84 wins. However, Man-Ram simply did not play in enough games in the N.L. to get my vote, as even Sabathia practically had a month on him. Unfortunately, his insane postseason performance does not count for consideration in this award, which obviously hurts his case.

My choice, then, is Albert Pujols, the best all-around player in the majors all year. Pujols helped the Cardinals remain in contention until around 10 days left in the season, which exceeded all pre-season expectations for the organization. In perhaps a typical Pujols year, he finished with a .357/.462/.653 line, 37 home runs, 116 RBIs and 104 walks to pace the game with a 1.114 OPS. Not only that, he played great defense at first base, which enabled him to win his third consecutive Fielding Bible Award at the position. Without his bat in the lineup for 148 games, St. Louis would have fallen out of contention by July. He will lose out on votes because his team missed out on the playoffs, but, as the most productive offensive contributor in the game, he made more of an impact for his team. Period.

Ryan Howard led the league with 48 home runs and 146 RBIs, getting hot at the right time (1.274 OPS in September) to help the Philadelphia Phillies to their second consecutive NL East championship (and eventual World Series championship). But, the games in the first half count too, and I have a difficult time voting for a player with a .339 on-base percentage. Pujols has the edge in the stats that really count, played much better defense and would be the slam dunk pick if he had better teammates.

While I am a big Howard guy, he, like Morneau in the other league, did not rank in the top 10 in the league in OPS or VORP, and was not even the most valuable member of the Phillies.

That honor goes to Chase Utley, who played sensational defense at second base and hit .292/.380/.535, with 33 home runs and 104 RBIs. He finished with one of the highest VORP—Value Over Replacement Player, which is certainly not a perfect stat and does not account for defense—totals ever by a second baseman, 62.2, which was nearly 30 points higher than Howard’s mark. He also ranked as the most effective defensive player in the majors, at any position, in John Dewan’s plus/minus system.

Still, Pujols added the most real value on the diamond, and gets my vote.

My picks:

1. Albert Pujols

2. Chase Utley

3. Manny Ramirez

4. CC Sabathia

Cy Young:

Again, though he only made 17 starts in the NL, Sabathia will garner some votes for carrying the Brewers on his back and pitching them into the postseason.

Brandon Webb, because of his high wins total, is perhaps the favorite. Webb, Mr. Consistency, put up another fine year on the mound: 22-7 record, 3.30 ERA, 183-to-65 K/W ratio, 1.20 WHIP. The 2006 Cy Young struggled at an inopportune time down the stretch, though, which may hurt his case. Yet, along with Dan Haren, he deserves credit for helping the Arizona Diamondbacks stay competitive, even when things got ugly for that offense.

Although either pitcher cannot match the win total belonging to Webb, Tim Lincecum of the San Francisco Giants and Santana of the New York Mets are more deserving of the award, in ’08. Again, this proves why wins/loss record is a misleading, ineffective method for judging a pitcher’s overall effectiveness. Seriously, it is 2008, and we know better.

Lincecum, pitching for the lowly Giants, went 18-5 with a 2.62 ERA, second to Santana, and a league-best 256 strikeouts. Scouts may fear that he will break down eventually, as his mechanics are certainly unorthodox. But since he has come into the league, he has been one of the most successful starters in the majors, and it all came together for him this season as he struck out 10.35 batters per nine innings and limited opponents to a .223 batting average and .614 OPS. For the traditionalists who are infatuated with wins, because baseball is a “team game” they say, consider this: Lincecum left the game with the lead on five different occasions, destined for a win, yet saw his bullpen fail to hold it. Team game, indeed.

Still, my pick is Santana, who came over to the Mets in the blockbuster trade this offseason and then went on to sign a huge deal to stay in New York. Boy, did he earn his paycheck, for year one at least? While New York missed out on the playoffs, again, by blowing a late-season lead, do not point any fingers at the dominant southpaw. He finished with the lowest ERA (2.53) on the circuit, striking out 206 in 234.1 innings pitched. While his 16-7 record is nothing too sexy, go back and read the preceding paragraph. The man pitched well enough to win 20 games, easily, and saw a mediocre bullpen, featuring the likes of Luis Ayala, Scott Schoenweis and Brian Stokes, blow several of his leads.

Even though the New York media was calling Santana’s first year in Queens a bust at the break—despite his 2.84 ERA—he shut them up with a great second half, going 7-0 with a 2.37 ERA and .231 opponents’ batting average in his final 14 starts. He delivered in big spots, too, like on the final Saturday of September, when he saved the Mets’ season (at that point) by putting together a complete game victory on three days’ rest. So, with sincere apologies to Lincecum, Santana gets my vote, as he did not have the benefit of pitching in the weak-hitting West.

An under-the-radar candidate deserving of honorable mention is Brad Lidge, who was by far the most dominant closer in the league. Lidge was invaluable to the Phillies, going a perfect 41-for-41 in save opportunities and posting a 1.95 ERA. K-Rod may be getting the press, but Lidge had the better campaign—he just had fewer save chances. Just ask the Mets how valuable a stud relief pitcher can be. When Billy Wagner went down, it seems, so did the season for the Metropolitans. So, though he is a dark horse, do not be surprised when he gets some votes.

My picks:

1. Johan Santana

2. Tim Lincecum

3. Brad Lidge

4. Brandon Webb

Rookie of the Year:

Geovany Soto has a better chance of winning this award than Vincent Chase has of getting some in the next episode of Entourage. Soto, the first rookie catcher to start the All-Star game for the National League, was perhaps the most valuable player for the team that posted the best regular season in the N.L. Playing a defense-first position, he batted .285/.364/.504, with 23 bombs, an .868 OPS and 86 RBIs. For that production, while putting on the mask for 131 games at catcher and handling the Cubs’ staff at a premium spot on the field, he deserves some MVP consideration as well. The best years area head for the 25-year-old stud as he continues to establish himself as the best offensive catcher in the league.

Like Longoria in the other league, Soto is the clear-cut pick here. But Joey Votto comes in second, in my opinion. Despite receiving less fan fare and attention than his fellow rookie teammate on the Cincinnati Reds, Jay Bruce, Votto put together a nice first campaign: .297/.368/.506, with 24 homers and 84 RBIs. The 25-year-old first baseman, with Bruce, is one of the key pieces of a nice young nucleus that the Reds have to build around for the future.

Jair Jurrjens had a nice debut season on the mound for the Atlanta Braves, going 13-10, with a 3.68 ERA.

Soto is the only pick for this award, though, and perhaps has a chance to win the award unanimously.

My picks:

1. Geovany Soto

2. Joey Votto

3. Jair Jurrjens

4. Jay Bruce

Manager of the Year:

Part of me wants to give this award to Joe Torre, who left New York for the West Coast and helped guide a diverse group of youngsters and veterans to the NL West title. But, it is exactly that: the Dodgers, who gave up so many prospects in pre-deadline deals, absolutely needed to win the inferior West. If not, the season would have been labeled an absolute failure. To their credit, they did what they had to do, ending up as the best of the worst after acquiring Ramirez, who helped them unseat Arizona for the title in the majors' weakest division.

My pick, though, goes to Charlie Manuel, who led the Phillies to another division championship. Manuel may not come off as the most intellectual baseball manager, but he did the most important thing that a manager can do: earn his players’ respect. And, from making an example out of Jimmy Rollins after he failed to run out a ground ball earlier this summer to keeping the clubhouse loose, he got the best out of his players in 2008. If the voters, who had to turn in their ballots in before the playoffs started, could account for playoff performance, the World Series-winning manager would easily take home the honor.

Fredi Gonzalez and Manny Acta are also excellent managers, though they were not exactly left with talented rosters to work with. A manager really needs the proper players—as a carpenter needs supplies—to ever have a chance of competing at this level. Which is why bad teams can have great managers sometimes, and great teams can have bad managers.

In Chicago, the Cubs have both in Lou Piniella. While the Cubs have a huge payroll, a great market, and a talented club, Piniella once again did a fine job, steering Chicago to the best record in the NL through 162 regular season games.

Still, Manuel gets my vote. (Note: he was my selection on September 29 as well.)

My picks:

1. Charlie Manuel

2. Lou Piniella

3. Fredi Gonzalez

4. Joe Torre

To voice your disagreements with my picks, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com

Update: I wrote this post right after the game was delayed following the top of the sixth inning, unaware that Bud Selig had already determined the game would be played in its entirety, regardless of the current rulebook. With his power, he decided it was in the best interest for the integrity of the game. After meeting with each team, he made the decision on Saturday. However, he simply changed the rules on the fly, and even the announcers on Fox were unaware of this decision. Thinking ahead, changing the rule seems like a no-brainer.

Major League Baseball is an industry that is slow to adapt change.

In fact, it was practically shocking when Commissioner Bud Selig decided to allow the use of instant replay on home run calls earlier this season.

Yet again, though, change is necessary—as we learned in Game 5 of the World Series.

If the Tampa Bay Rays had not tied the game up at 2-all in the sixth inning tonight, the Philadelphia Phillies may already be celebrating their first championship since 1980. Since the game was official, the Phillies would have won the shortened game if the game had been called due to the weather.

With the rain coming down in bunches, this was a likely scenario—a potential Phillies’ celebration after only 18 outs.

This, of course, would have a bad thing for everyone involved. The Rays, who certainly have not played well all series, would have felt cheated, as would their fans.

On the flip side, if they had scored again in that frame to take a 3-2 lead, and then shut the Phillies down in the bottom half to take the game (and eventually the series), the city of Philadelphia might have actually burned to the ground.

As a torrential downpour turned the playing conditions into almost a joke, though, Carlos Pena knocked in the speedy B.J. Upton with a line drive single to left field. Pena, who delivered a double earlier in the game, was 0-for-the-series coming into the night. He delivered when it counted, helping to prevent a potential disaster of colossal proportions for the sport.

Which must have provided a huge sigh of relief for Commissioner Bud Selig and the MLB.

The game is suspended until tomorrow now, and will pick up with the Phillies coming to bat in the bottom half of the sixth inning.

If the Rays had not scored, however, odds are the game would have continued.

This is why, in my opinion, Major League Baseball should adjust the rulebook. During the regular season, the score should stand if the game is called early due to inclement weather. But when it comes to the postseason, all games should be played in their entirety, a full nine innings, even if that means the game has to be suspended until another day.

This way, the game could have been suspended earlier tonight—as Upton, or any other player could have been seriously injured while running on the base paths or out in the field—even before the Rays had tied it up.

It is not exactly asking for a lot. Heck, I am not calling for robots to call balls and strikes, even though this would perhaps be more effective than the current system in place (just ask a one Mr. Scott Kazmir, who was squeezed all night.)

Selig and MLB barely escaped a potential public relations disaster tonight, the equivalent of a mediocre pitcher getting out of a no-outs, bases-loaded jam with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell coming up.

Things truly could have gotten ugly.

If the game was called and the Phillies won in five, the Commissioner would have never heard the end of it, sports talk radio hosts from St. Petersburg to Orlando would have played the “What if?” game for weeks and the term “asterik” might have entered the conversation.

Plus, the Phillies have outplayed their opponent to this point, thanks to surprisingly solid outings from Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton in the previous two games in Philadelphia. Would they want to win like that? Hey, if the game was called after a delay, that could have been the first time in history that the winning team did not get to celebrate their title on the field, after making the final out or producing a walk-off base hit.

How weird would that have been?

Thinking ahead for the future, Selig should never allow a situation like this to happen again. Instead, he needs to prevent the first three hypothetical runners from getting on base, changing the rule before the start of the 2009 season.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

Note: I wrote this post a few days ago for Scout.com, and the stats mentioned are not accurate.

After a torrid start, Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley, batting .247/.354/.457 in June, has cooled down at the plate as of late. The majors' home run leader entering the month, Utley has hit only three homers in 81 June at-bats. From May 28 to June 2, he homered in five consecutive games, as Philadelphia won four of five. But Utley's last home run came nearly three weeks ago in the Phillies' 20-2 thumping over the St. Louis Cardinals on June 13. During his slump, his NL East second base counterpart, Dan Uggla (23 homers entering Saturday), has surpassed him for the major league lead in home runs.

Throughout the month Utley has continued to play excellent defense--he does not get enough credit for his achievements with the glove--at second base. It is no coincidence, however, that his offensive struggles have coincided with the Phillies' recent slide. While Interleague Play has not been friendly to many teams on the Senior Circuit, the Phils’ are 2-9 since they put up 20 runs in St. Louis. During that period, Utley posted a line of .143/.245/.238, as he has collected only six base hits in his last 42 at-bats.

As a team in the month of June, Philadelphia is batting .233/.325/.395, for a putrid OPS of .716, and has scored 103 runs. Utley is the key bat for Phillies, who are still the favorite to win the National League East. While the club, currently 43-38, has just a one-game lead over the Florida Marlins in the division, it has outscored opponents 411-337. The Phillies’ run differential of 74, in fact, is one of the best in the majors.

Led by Utley, his double-play partner, Jimmy Rollins, and the surging Pat Burrell, Philadelphia ranks fourth in the majors in runs scored. Despite the swoon this month, the club still boasts one of the most dynamic offenses as Major League Baseball enters the second half of its season. The Phillies also sit 10th in team ERA, 3.90, led by young left-hander Cole Hamels.

Hamels has posted an opponents’ line of .210/.262/.377, striking out 95 while only walking 29. Overall, he is 7-5 with a 3.27 ERA and the second-lowest WHIP (1.03) in the National League in 113.0 innings pitched.

Kyle Kendrick has a low batting average on balls in play, pointing towards regression. However, Kendrick, a savior for Philadelphia down the stretch last season, is coming off arguably the most dominant outing of his career. On Wednesday, he stopped the bleeding for the Phillies against the American League, tossing eight four-hit, shutout innings in a win over the Oakland Athletics. While he has received his fair share of run support, he is 7-3 in 16 starts, with the 10th-highest winning percentage in baseball.

Jamie Moyer is an ageless wonder. Moyer has been solid, going 7-5 with a1.36 WHIP.

Brett Myers’ return to the rotation was supposed to give the Phillies a huge boost. Myers’ once-plus velocity has eluded him this spring, however, and he has struggled with his command at times. If he can get it going post-break, the Phillies will add an impact arm before the trade deadline, by default.

Francisco Rodriguez may be on pace to break Bobby Thigpen’s single-season saves record, given how plentiful save chances are for the low-scoring Los Angeles Angels. Still, one could make the case that Phillies closer Brad Lidge has been the better ninth-inning stopper this season. Lidge was acquired in a deal with the Houston Astros this offseason in exchange for speedster Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary and a minor leaguer. Labeled as a “head case with lights-out stuff,” many applauded Pat Gillick for pulling the trigger on the deal, because it allowed Myers to convert back to a starter. Lidge, however, has been invaluable to Philadelphia, limiting opponents to a line of .157/.258/.185 while picking up 18 saves in as many chances. In 30.1 innings pitched, he is 1-0 with a 0.87 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.

With such a balanced attack—despite its recent struggles against teams from the superior league—Philadelphia is still the favorite entering the season’s final 81 games. At the same time, the Marlins--with a starting rotation consisting of mediocre starting pitchers such as former NBA player Mark Hendrickson--have actually been outscored by the competition, with a -15 run differential. This indicates that Florida has had its fair share of luck this season.

After being swept by the Tampa Bay Rays this week, the Marlins appear to be a pretender at this juncture, while their in-state rival established themselves as legitimate threat in the American League East. Florida is batting .252./.318/.441 as a team. Every starter in the Marlins' infield--Jorge Cantu (14, .811 OPS), Mike Jacobs (18, .785 OPS), Hanley Ramirez (.17, .904 OPS) and Uggla--has reached double digits in home runs.

The pitching staff down in Miami, however, has been a cause for concern. Thus, it is unlikely that the team will maintain its current win/loss record.

Josh Johnson is on his way back to majors, getting ready to make one of his last rehab appearances.

Ricky Nolasco is 8-4 with a 66-to-28 K/W ratio.

Andrew Miller, 5-6 with a 1.60 WHIP, has had some issues with command, but has flashed brief glimpses of his tremendous potential.

Scott Olsen has rebounded from a tumultuous '07 campaign, posting a 3.44 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in his first 16 starts.

Regardless, the Marlins' starting rotation, which has posted an opponents’ line of .276/.347/.345, will not be an area of strength for the club down the stretch. Thus, as the bats cool off, the Marlins could fall too far out of contention to make a realistic push for the postseason.

The Atlanta Braves are on pace to set a record for the most one-run losses in a single season; if the team won half of those contests they would perhaps be atop the standings right now in the division. Cleary, Atlanta has had its fair share of bad luck, as their +47 run differential indicates.

Still, at 40-41, the Braves are only three games back in the East. Despite all of the losses in close games, they are a legitimate threat--perhaps the Phillies' most realistic competition--to reach the postseason, especially if the breaks start to bounce their way in the second half.

Brian McCann has the highest OPS, .921, among all catchers in the majors.

Chipper Jones is enjoying arguably the strongest first half of his career, batting .394/.485/.630, for the majors’ best OPS (1.115). While eclipsing the .400 plateau seems unlikely, Atlanta needs Jones’ bat--assuming he can stay healthy, which is a big if--to continue to carry them following the All-Star break. If he can remain on the field and the Braves are playing meaningful games in September, he has a strong chance to add an MVP award to his stellar resume.

Coming off a three-homer game, soon-to-be free-agent first baseman Mark Teixeira seems destined to have a strong second half. With a long-term, $100-million deal awaiting him this winter, Teixeira--currently batting .271/.365/.471--has plenty of motivation to put up lofty numbers after the break. With Atlanta still in the hunt, it is unlikely that the organization would consider dealing him before the trade deadline, though the club is reportedly interested in adding another bat to solidify their lineup. Pittsburgh outfielders Jason Bay and Xavier Nady have surfaced in rumors, and--at the right price for GM Frank Wren--either outfielder could be the right match.

Even with the absence of veterans Mike Hampton, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz, Atlanta still boasts a formidable pitching staff, and seems set on starting pitching.

Jorge Campillo, 1.02 WHIP in eight starts, has been a solid upgrade, missing bats to the tune of a 53-to-12 K/W ratio.

Tim Hudson, as usual, continues to anchor the staff. Hudson, 8-5, has registered a 2.96 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 109.1 innings pitched.

Jair Jurrjens has been the premier rookie starting pitcher through the midway point, going 8-3 with a 2.94 ERA. Jurrjens, acquired this offseason in the trade that sent Edgar Renteria to Detroit, is a strong candidate to take home NL Rookie of the Year honors in a deep class of newcomers. He has posted an opponents' OPS of .666, 1.32 WHIP and 69-to-37 K/W ratio, surrendering only 32 earned runs and 92 hits in 98.0 innings pitched.

Another youngster, Charlie Morton, will get a crack in the second half as well. Morton, who established himself as a solid major league prospect with a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League in 2007, has had an up-and-down stint in the minors since the Braves selected him out of Joel Barlow High School in Redding, Connecticut back in 2002.

After Philadelphia, it seems, Atlanta has the most realistic chance of winning the division crown.

The New York Mets, 39-40, have a -2 run differential, and are unlikely to emerge as a realistic contender in the second half.

Manager change or not--honestly, will Jerry Manuel make that much of a difference?--this club seems destined to miss the postseason for the second consecutive year. There has been a lot of talk about how New York has underachieved. But have they, really? Like the myth that the Seattle Mariners are underperforming--solely because they added Erik Bedard this offseason to a team that was lucky to remain in postseason contention last summer--many people view the Mets’ poor first half as a surprise. After all, they added All-Star left-hander Johan Santana--the best starter in baseball from 2004-to-'06--to the starting pitching mix this offseason.

Still, though, the New York appears to be headed towards a .500 season, which really is not all that much of shock.

The Mets’ chapter in the 2008 Baseball Prospectus handbook ends like this: "The Mets endured a shocking last-minute disappointment in 2007. Unable or unwilling to undertake a needed rebuilding of their aging roster, the Mets will suffer more disappointment in 2008, only this year it will start on Opening Day."

Omar Minaya’s job seems safe, but should it be? He has thrown far too much money at aging stars on the decline--some players whom have never been stars; Luis Castillo at four years, $25-million, for example. Yet again, the ’08 version of the Mets proves that a high payroll does not guarantee success.

Jose Reyes and David Wright (.844 and .874 OPS, respectively) have not provided as much offensive production as they are capable of. Outside of the talented left-side of the New York infield, though, most hitters on the roster are staying in line with their pre-season projections.

Carlos Delgado needed a nine-RBI performance on Friday night to improve his OPS to .734. Delgado, an aging 36-year-old who inches towards replacement-level caliber with every passing day, is batting .233/.313/.422. It is no secret; his days as a productive offensive player are long gone.

While the offense has struggled--as a team, the club ranks 13th in runs scored, 19th in home runs (71) and OPS (.728) and 21st in batting average--the club's veteran starting rotation is equally as concerning.

Can Pedro Martinez stay healthy over the next 81 games? Martinez is 2-2 with a 7.12 ERA in six starts.

Oliver Perez is consistently inconsistent, a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde impersonator out on the mound. He has struggled with his command as well, currently ranking second in the National League with 52 walks. Overall, the 26-year-old southpaw is 5-5 with a 5.29 ERA, opponents' OPS of .802 and 1.56 WHIP. Hitters are batting .252/.374/.427 against him in 83.1 innings pitched.

Santana no longer has the same dominant stuff that he had in Minnesota a few years ago, but has still been the most effective New York starter. While he has given up 14 home runs--he allowed 33 in '07--he has been a lot more effective than his 7-6 record indicates, posting a team-best 2.93 ERA.

Still, with the Mets' pitching staff and anemic offense, odds are against a repeat of last season's historic September collapse. Unfortunately, though, the reason is that the club will not have a division lead to give away, as a third-place finish appears likely for Mr. Minaya’s overpaid bunch of veterans.

The Washington Nationals, currently 11 games back, do not have the personnel to make a late-season charge. With Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge, though, there is still entertainment value from the baseball team in DC.

There is a great deal of baseball left to be played, and the NL East is still wide open. At this point, though, Atlanta and Philadelphia appear to be the most realistic contenders in the division.