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Talking Rays With Jonah Keri
Nov 23, 2008 | 6:51PM | report this
Jonah Keri, co-author of Baseball Between The Numbers, was kind enough to answer several questions about the Tampa Bay Rays in an email exchange. Keri is a frequent contributor to ESPN.com (click here for archive) whose writing has appeared in Baseball Prospectus, Playboy, the New York Times, Salon, Slate and many other publications. He also writes a popular stock market column for Investor's Business Daily and offers analysis on everything from college basketball to politics on his website, JonahKeri.com.

Jonah, thanks for taking the time answer some questions.

Reid Brignac has regressed offensively since his breakout performance in the California League back in 2006. Brignac finished with a sub-.300 OBP in his Triple-A debut but has made strides defensively. How does he compare defensively to Jason Bartlett, and does he have a chance to win the job in camp? Or is there any chance that the Rays would deal him this winter, under the impression that Bartlett could man the position until Tim Beckham is ready down the road?

JK: I have no inside knowledge on this front per se, but I could see the Rays dealing Brignac, yes. Andrew Friedman is always looking for value. So whether or not they trade Brignac could depend on whether teams see the Cal League stats and improved defense or focus on the offensive regression of the past couple years. If they keep Brignac, I imagine they'll stick with Bartlett for his defense.

With David Price set to crack the rotation, who do you think will be the odd man out? According to this data, Andy Sonnanstine was considerably more valuable than many people gave him credit for in 2008. With that being said, he seems like the best bet to stay. However, would Edwin Jackson, because of his stuff, bring in more value in return if he is traded? If you had to bet, which pitcher is more likely to be dealt?

JK: Again, I think it will come down to value. If teams are willing to shell out more for Sonnanstine, he could be dealt. If Jackson can fetch more, he might go. I think Jackson would work well in a bullpen role too, so that could be another option. I'd like to see the Rays see if they could get a true impact bat for Scott Kazmir. But it's rare that we see that kind of blockbuster deal. Then again, the Delmon Young deal was a shocker when it happened.

Jeff Niemann is unlikely to ever emerge as a front-line stud at this point, but would be ranked a lot higher in another organization without so much pitching depth. Out of options, where do you see him at this point next offseason?

JK: Another good bullpen candidate. Someone who throws that hard coming downhill with his height...if they just slot Niemann in the pen and stop shuttling him back and forth, he could be a good, cheap option.

Will Mitch Talbot earn a spot in the Rays' bullpen in 2009?

JK: Another who'd be worth a shot. That's the beauty of having so much organizational pitching depth, of course. There's no need to hand out a three-year contract to some random veteran. Save a few million here and a few million there with equivalent talent, and suddenly you've got the cash to, say, buy out David Price's arbitration years in 2010.

The Rays excelled at run prevention in 2008, ranking first in defensive efficiency. What steps will they take, if any, to prevent a regression on this front?

JK: The infield is the strength of the defense, and the Rays are going to bring everyone back there. There's a good chance the team will add a new right fielder. Going after a player who can hit without hurting the defense would help on that front, obviously. That means stay far, far away from Raul Ibanez, for example.

The Boston Red Sox will be back, the New York Yankees seemingly have the chance to sign every big-name free-agent pitcher this offseason and the Toronto Blue Jays return some excellent pitching. Is it possible for the Rays to be even stronger next year, yet still miss out on the playoffs?

JK: Most definitely. The AL East won't stop being a tough division any team soon. The Baltimore Orioles are going to improve too, as prospects like Matt Wieters, Chris Tillman et al come up.

If you could choose between Price and Wieters, who would you take?

JK: Wieters. Much less risk of injury and much more predictable performance for position players than pitchers.

Bartlett received a fifth-place vote for A.L. M.V.P., and even was selected as the Rays' Team M.V.P. by the local chapter of the BBWAA. What is wrong with that picture?

JK: Well plenty, of course. I don't want to take anything away from Bartlett, who was a huge defensive upgrade. Let's just say there were plenty of better MVP candidates. Several on his own team, in fact.

Andrew Friedman has a great track record of exploiting inefficiencies, having found several sleepers like Eric Hinske and Carlos Pena on the cheap in the recent past. With a handful of players due for raises in arbitration and little money to work with, do you have any predictions for what Friedman will do this winter?

JK: I expect the payroll to go up somewhat, given the team likely surpassed its revenue projections for 2008 with its playoff run, and that they're well positioned to contend again in '09. Using internal options for the bullpen would be a good way to defray some of the raises that other players are getting. I do think a Kazmir deal could make some sense, especially if it's for a younger, less expensive, but still talented hitter.

Did Chuck LaMar receive too much credit for the Rays' success during the postseason coverage?

JK: I think he received the right amount of coverage. The focus was mostly on Andrew Friedman, Matt Silverman and Stu Sternberg. Vince Naimoli, Chuck LaMar made plenty of mistakes during their respective tenures. But the old regime did make some contributions to the team that became the '08 Rays. Seemed reasonable to save at least some credit for them.

Do you think B.J. Upton would ever consider signing a similar deal to Evan Longoria, or is he more likely to go year-to-year until free agency?

JK: Well the dollar amounts would be much higher for Upton of course, since he's a fair bit further along on the service time clock than Longoria was when he signed. I imagine Upton will take the best deal available to him. If the Rays make a big, multi-year deal, I'd imagine he's strongly consider it. If the Rays opt not to extend a lucrative long-term offer, Upton will do fine year-to-year.

Has Carl Crawford reached his peak as a player, barring an improvement in his approach on on-base skills? Do you foresee a bounceback when he is fully healthy in '09?

JK: I could see a power spike. He's 27, at a stage in his career where you should expect a small, but gradual erosion in speed. Players of that age, assuming health, do often see power spikes. The biggest level of upside would be an improved batting eye. If Crawford learns to take more pitches, both to work walks and to find pitches to hit in favorable counts, everyone benefits.

Do you think Tampa Bay fans will get to see Wade Davis at some point next year?

JK: I do. How much he's involved will depend on the health of the Rays' pitchers. If everyone's healthy and producing, we might be talking about just a September cup of coffee for Davis--or possibly a David Price-style call-up where they get him on the roster before Sept. 1 as a prelude to a possible spot on the playoff roster.

Since Rocco Baldelli cannot play back-to-back days in the outfield due to his mitochondrial disorder, would it be an unwise decision for Tampa Bay to make him a serious offer and give him a roster spot?

JK: Depends on price, of course. He's a free agent so he can go anywhere he likes. If other teams value him as anything close to the future star he was once thought to be, I imagine the Rays will pass. If teams balk because of Baldelli's health, a contract loaded with playing time and performance incentives would make sense.

Thanks for answering the questions, Jonah.

For those who have not read BBTN, I encourage you to do so. It will change the way you look at the game forever. Also, Keri recently finished the Page 2 guide to MLB Free Agency, which you don't want to miss.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com

1 Comment | Add a comment   categories: Tampa Bay Rays, Jonah Keri, Tyler's Take, MLB, Jason Bartlett, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, Reid Brignac, David Price
 
Too Early To Tell
Aug 03, 2008 | 7:35AM | report this

Carl Crawford should pick it up.
Carl Crawford should pick it up.

The New York Yankees landed a catcher, Ivan Rodriguez, at the trade deadline to fill in for the injured Jorge Posada. This gave New York another option with Jose Molina expected to see the majority of innings at the position before the deal. The Yankees also added a solid reliever and right-handed bat, acquiring Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady. Thus, many analysts have labeled the club as “winners” at the trade deadline, giving some deserved credit to longtime general manager Brian Cashman.

The Boston Red Sox lost the production of slugger Manny Ramirez, but got rid of his baggage and added a capable replacement who is better defensively, Jason Bay, who has gotten off to an excellent start with his new team.

However, the other team competing for the American League East title, the Tampa Bay Rays, remained pat at the deadline. Tampa Bay Executive VP of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman refused to give up any “elite” arms to acquire Bay, for whom the Pittsburgh Pirates turned his services into a nice package of four prospects in three-team deal that sent Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Friedman and the Rays have been labeled as “losers” accordingly, but are they really? Giving up a potential future top-15 shortstop in the league, Reid Brignac, or Wade Davis or Jeremy Hellickson would be inconsistent with the vision of the Rays’ ownership group for sustaining their current level of success for an extended time period.

It is truly way too early to label a team winners or losers. Just ask Omar Minaya, who was applauded for landing Bartolo Colon back in 2002 when he was the GM of the Montreal Expos. Minaya, however, parted ways with three future stars—Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore—as the Expos fell apart the rest of the way and failed to reach the playoffs.

A verdict, then, will not be out on this trade deadline season—all of the deals—for a long time. Plus, for a small-market team to maintain its success in the current economic market in the industry, it must look at its young prospects as cost-effective assets, which the Rays have done.

The Rays were losers, writes Jayson Stark. Yahoo! Sports agrees.

Instead, the club may receive a boost from former star Rocco Baldelli, who has made steady progress in his rare health condition. Baldelli finished a rehab assignment with Double-A Montgomery on Thursday night, and could return to the Rays during the current homestand. He hit .297/.409/.568 with three home runs and eight RBIs in 37 at-bats with the Biscuits.

A Baldelli decision may be coming, writes Marc Lancaster. This will give Friedman and his staff an important decision to make about the status of Gabe Gross and Jonny Gomes. Gross adds tremendous value with his defense in right field, leaving the club with a difficult choice here.

The internal candidate who is most likely to make an impact in the AL East race for the Rays, though, is former number one overall pick David Price. Price improved to 10-0 as a professional on Saturday night, striking out 10 in seven innings to lead the Biscuits to a win over the West Tennessee Diamond Jaxx. The talented left-hander, the best pitching prospect in the minors, is now 6-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 48-to-12 K/W ratio in eight Southern League starts. He has a chance to make the jump to the majors without pitching in Triple-A, Friedman says.

With all of the additions made elsewhere in the division, Price truly could be the ultimate upgrade for a stretch run, perhaps more so than Nady or Rodriguez. He is that good, having shown an advanced approach to pitching, mid-90s fastball and excellent command. If there is a pitcher to make a Joba-like impact, it is him.

Jeff Niemann and Justin Ruggiano could also contribute as well.

Niemann, who was linked to Pittsburgh in the Bay talks, is 7-5 with a 3.53 ERA and 88-to-36 K/W ratio at Triple-A Durham. The former first-round pick has seen his star dim as all of the injuries have taken a tool, decreasing his once-plus velocity. He is still on the track to the majors, however. He would have benefited from a trade to Pittsburgh, where he would have jumped into the starting rotation.

Ruggiano has never been a favorite among scouts, but has posted some solid statistics during his minor league career. The 26-year-old outfielder has performed well again at Durham so far, batting .316/.374/.529 with nine homers and 42 RBIs. The status of Baldelli will determine if he ever gets a realistic shot with the parent club, which he did not get during his stint with the Rays earlier this season. He went 4-for-5 with an RBI in the Bulls’ 8-2 win over the Charlotte Knights on Saturday night.

Links:

Evan Longoria continued to build his case for AL Rookie of the Year on Saturday night, tying Gomes’ rookie single-season record with his 21st home run to lead the Rays to a 9-3 victory over the Detroit Tigers. Longoria, a first-round pick back in 2006, finished 3-for-5 with three RBIs to raise his line to .280/.354/.540 and increase his RBI total to 67. He is leading the club in homers, RBIs and OPS (.879).

Tampa Bay cranked out nine runs on 11 hits overall, winning its fourth straight game while continuing to shine in the friendly confines of Tropicana Field.

Carl Crawford, hot of late, continued to perform since moving out of the two spot in the batting order. Crawford, who has a seven-game hitting streak, drove in two and scored twice. The perennial stolen-base threat—whose totals are down because of his poor on-base percentage—swiped his first bag in eight game as well, and is now batting .272/.315/.401. With a .717 OPS, a low number for a player at the left field position, he has to turn it around, and appears to be doing so. With his track record, he could add an impact bat by default, having the chance to help Tampa Bay score more runs if he can get on base more frequently to take advantage of his biggest asset, speed.

Andy Sonnanstine got the run support that has eluded him for most of July to earn the win. Sonnanstine scattered seven hits, allowing two earned runs while striking out six. Although he is now 11-6 and leading the staff in wins, it was a big outing for him, with Price waiting in the wings and his 4.58 ERA leaving a bit to be desired.

Tampa Bay is now three games up on Boston—and 5.5 on New York—in the division, improving its home record to 42-16 and 65-44 overall. They set a record for most home wins (42) in a season.

James Shields has been one of the best pitchers in the majors at home this season, going 7-1 with a 2.16 ERA, .205 opponents’ batting average and 72-to-14 K/W ratio in 12 starts at Tropicana Field. Shields will look to continue that success in the finale of the three-game series with Detroit on Sunday, writes Bill Chastain.

One thing that has gone unnoticed at times is the Rays’ team defense. With B.J. Upton and Ty Wigginton logging innings at second base and Brendan Harris and Josh Wilson and others doing the same at shortstop, the Tampa Bay infield defense was terrible in 2007. The addition of Jason Bartlett at shortstop, transition of Akinori Iwamura to second base and emergence of Longoria has helped change that landscape.

This has had tremendous overall positive effects on Tampa Bay’s young pitchers, and is a major reason why the club is still in first place this late in the game. The club currently ranks first in the league in defensive efficiency—the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs. As much as the bullpen has improved as well, it is hard to put into words the strides that this team has made in the run prevention equation.

Friedman deserves plenty of credit for pulling the trigger on the Delmon Young deal, with improving the team defense on his mind.

Manny Who?

The Red Sox also won on Friday night, pounding out 12 runs to crush the Oakland Athletics. Bay—who scored the winning run in an extra-innings affair during his Fenway debut on Friday—continued to produce, hitting a home run in the win while Jon Lester improved to 10-3.

Lester has truly turned into an excellent front-end starter in this league, having made it through seven innings in eight of his past nine starts. The 24-year-old left-hander, who threw a no-hitter against the Kansas City Royals earlier this season, has posted a 3.14 ERA and 101-to-46 K/W ratio to help anchor the Boston pitching staff.

The Red Sox are moving on without Manny, writes Katie Zezima.

Kevin Youkilis also got in on the action, belting two homers and increasing his hit streak to nine games. He has had a great year—on the defensive side as well—and is currently batting .313/.380/.557 with 20 long balls and 74 RBIs. He is an integral part of the Boston offensive attack.

Yankees Also Win

New York also got in the win column, as the dream season continued for Mike Mussina, who surrendered only two runs on two hits in seven solid innings to help the Yankees shut down the hot-as-fire Los Angeles Angels and new acquisition Mark Teixeira.

Honestly, where would the Yankees be without Mussina? He has been a pleasant surprise for them, winning 14 games while posting an impressive 3.44 ERA and stellar 90-to-19 K/W. He does not leave a lot of room for error with his declining stuff, but has worked the corners magically with his excellent control and command

After getting roughed up in his last outing, a 13-4 loss to the Baltimore Orioles, many thought that Mussina was finally regressing back to the mean. Yet he bounced back nicely, out dueling Jered Weaver while holding the Angels scoreless after giving up two runs in the first inning.

Mussina continues to defy the passage of time, writes Brian Heyman.

Jose Molina is going to be his personal catcher, writes Anthony Rieber.

Bobby Abreu, Wilson Betemit, Jose Molina (his first of the year) and Alex Rodriguez all homered for the Yankees, who were without second baseman Robinson Cano.

Brian Bruney was called back up to the club, writes Joshua Robinson.

New York, however, will not get a boost in September from ace Chien-Ming Wang, who will miss the remainder of the regular season but could return for the playoffs.

Phil Hughes is also trying to make his way back from a broken rib, and could have an impact. Hughes is currently on a rehab assignment along with Carl Pavano, pitching for the Charleston RiverDogs in the South Atlantic League. In his second outing with Charleston on Saturday night, he earned the win in relief of Pavano, who started the game and allowed an earned run in three innings. Hughes was impressive, striking out five in 3.2 innings pitched.

Waiver Talk:

Although the trade deadline has passed, players can still move teams in the August waiver trading period. Paul DePodesta, the former Los Angeles Dodgers GM and Billy Beane protégé, provides an excellent post on this process in his blog. DePodesta, a major figure in the book Moneyball, currently works in the front office for the San Diego Padres.

Ziegler Story:

The story of Brad Ziegler is about as interesting as it gets. Click here for an excellent recap of his journey, courtesy of blogger extraordinaire Joe Posnanski of the Kansas City Star.

On Monday at 2:00, Tyler Hissey will host a live chat, similar to the trade deadline live blog on Thursday. Feel free to stop by and ask a question. Click here to access the chat.

To contact Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

4 Comments | Add a comment   categories: Major League Baseball, Tampa Bay Rays, Oakland Athletics, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, David Price, Rocco Baldelli, Brad Ziegler, Ivan Rodriguez, Jose Molina, Alex Rodriguez, Carl Crawford, Mike Mussina, Manny Ramirez, Pittsburgh Pirates, Andy Sonnanstine, Reid Brignac, San Diego Padres
 
Four Bulls Named All-Stars
Jul 03, 2008 | 9:04PM | report this

Reid Brignac

Four Durham Bulls on Thursday were elected to the International League All-Star team.

Infielders Reid Brignac and Chris Richard, starter Jeremy Cummings and closer Dale Thayer will represent the Bulls at the Triple-A All-Star game at Slugger Field in Louisville on July 16.

Brignac will miss the game, however. He was called up to the majors to fill in for Tampa Bay Rays starting shortstop Jason Bartlett, who was placed on the 15-day disabled list this afternoon. One of the best defensive shortstops at the Triple-A level, Brignac, 22, posted a line of .265/.312/.431 in 78 games before getting promoted.

Viewed by many as the Rays’ shortstop of the future, he ranks among Durham leaders with 24 doubles, 75 hits and 37 runs scored, though he has struggled to get on base; has only walked 21 times while striking out 69 times.

Brignac posted stellar numbers at Single-A Visalia in 2006, taking home California League MVP honors. After putting up such lofty numbers in a difficult circuit for young hitters, many expected him to continue his success at Double-A last season. His status as a blue-chip prospect took a hit, however, as he posted a disappointing .760 OPS, though he made steady progress as a defensive shortstop.

Brignac, who will make is major league debut and should start Friday in the opener of the Rays’ three-game series against the Kansas City Royals, is still considered one of the most promising infield prospects in baseball. Named to the Arizona Fall League Top Prospect Team in November, he has played in three All-Star games since he was selected by Tampa Bay out of a Louisiana High School in the 2004 draft.

Cummings, who began the 2008 season in Taiwan, has been one of the Bulls’ most effective starters in the first half. In fact, after signing with Durham as a free agent in May, he has been one of the most consistent pitcher in the International League over the past two months. He tossed seven innings of one-run ball in the Bulls’ 5-1 victory over the Richmond Braves last Sunday, improving his record to 7-2.

The career minor leaguer has registered a 2.72 ERA in 10 starts. In 59.2 innings pitched, he has allowed only 19 runs, 18 earned, while posting a 55-to-14 K/W ratio and an opponents’ batting average of .201. Cummings has come a long way since the St. Louis Cardinals selected him out of West Virginia University in the 1999 draft, but if he can continues to make pitching against Triple-A competition look this easy, perhaps he will finally reach his goal of pitching in the majors.

Richard will make his second trip to the Triple-A All-Star game, but it has been eight years since his last appearance. This season, though, the veteran has been one of the most productive offensive players in the International League, batting .313/.400/.552 with a club-best 15 homers and 53 RBIs. He currently ranks third in the league in batting average, fourth in on-base percentage and sixth in slugging percentage.

Richard, 34, has the fifth-highest OPS (.952) on the circuit as well. Selected by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 19th round of the 1995 First-Year draft, he made his major league debut at the age of 26. He then spent parts of four seasons, from 2000-2003, with three different major league teams, hitting a career-high 15 home runs for the Baltimore Orioles back in 2001. One of the oldest players selected, he continues to live the dream, hoping to return to the highest level.

Thayer, acquired by Tampa Bay along with Russell Branyan and Evan Meek in ’06, ranks seventh in the league with nine saves. In 44.2 innings pitched, he has posted a 1.48 and 1.17 WHIP, limiting opponents to a .226 batting average.

Durham, 48-40, currently has an eight-game lead in the International League South Division.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email To TylerHissey@gmail.com.

Add a comment   categories: Tampa Bay Rays, Reid Brignac
 
Reviewing The Rays' Top 10 Prospects
Jun 30, 2008 | 12:18PM | report this
Note: This article first appeared on Rays Digest.

At the midway point of the 2008 season, it is a great time to review the performances of every player featured in the Rays’ Pre-Season Top 10 Prospect List. (I decided to go with the list compiled by Cork Gaines over at Rays Index.)

The highest-ranked prospect on the list, Evan Longoria, is making a strong case to get elected to the American League All-Star team, and is the mid-season favorite to take home Rookie of the Year honors.

While Longoria is already making an impact at the major league level, there are many other prospects in the Tampa Bay system enjoying fine seasons, though injuries have set back a prospects number six and nine, Desmond Jennings and Eduardo Morlan.

1. Evan Longoria—3B, Tampa Bay Rays: Longoria has been a force at the hot corner, emerging as one of the Rays’ most consistent offensive players while playing excellent defense at third base. He is batting .270/.342/.529, and currently ranks seventh in the American League with 15 home runs. The mid-season favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year, he is second among Tampa Bay regulars (behind Eric Hinske) with an .870 OPS, which is also the second-highest total among rookies in the majors. He is tops among newcomers with 36 extra-base hits as well.

2. David Price—LHP, Montgomery Biscuits: With his performance thus far, Price has proven why he was the consensus top amateur prospect entering the 2007 draft. Although he did not make a professional appearance after signing a record deal at the August 15 deadline, he still placed in the top three of every single Tampa Bay top prospect list this winter. Headed into the upcoming offseason, he will undoubtedly fill the top spot on next year’s round of lists. After going 4-0 with a 1.82 ERA and 37-to-7 K/W ratio in six starts at Vero Beach, the lanky left-hander earned a promotion to Double-A earlier this week.

David Price (AP)

In his first outing at Montgomery, on June 25, he scattered four hits in six solid innings, striking out seven to earn his first win. In seven combined starts, he is 5-0 with a 1.99 ERA, posting a 44-to-11 K/W ratio while holding opponents to a .182 batting average in 40.2 innings pitched. If he continues to miss bats and put up zeroes, he could earn another promotion in the near future, though the odds of him becoming the 2008 version of Joba Chamberlain are fairly slim.

3. Jake McGee—LHP, Montgomery Biscuits: When the organization decided to promote Jeremy Hellickson and Price to Montgomery, it was not too difficult to imagine the Biscuits, with a starting rotation featuring four of the premier pitching prospects in the minors, dominating the Southern League in the second half. The week did not go according to plan, however, as Hellickson surrendered five homers in his first Double-A start and McGee tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow. The 22-year-old southpaw will undergo Tommy John surgery—another patient for baseball’s busiest doctor, James Andrews—and is out indefinitely.

Before the injury, McGee was 6-4 with a 3.94 ERA in 15 starts. He was among Southern League leaders with 65 strikeouts and a 1.31 WHIP as well. While he is still young enough to make a full recovery—and could come back throwing harder than before, though there are few lefties in the minors who can match his pre-injury, mid-90s velocity—the pitching depth in the Tampa Bay farm system was dealt with a huge blow.

4. Wade Davis—RHP, Montgomery Biscuits: Deciding between Davis and McGee was really a toss-up this winter, with several prospect writers going with McGee, despite his below-average secondary offerings, for one reason—he is a lefty. Although the right-hander in the talented tandem struggles with his command at times, he has a true power arm with an excellent curve ball and arguably the highest upside of any pitcher in the Rays’ system—perhaps except for Price, whose excellent command rivals any pitching prospect in the minors. In 16 starts, he has had some ups and downs for the Biscuits in the first half, posting a 7-5 record, 62-to-38 K/W ratio and 1.35 WHIP while surrendering only five home runs in 88.2 innings pitched. His numbers were inflated after his poor outing on June 18, when he did not make it through the third inning, walking five while allowing six earned runs in 2.1 innings.

Update: Davis’ record dropped to 7-6 on Sunday, as he allowed all five runs in the Biscuits’ 5-4 loss to the Mobile BayBears, raising his ERA to 4.14. He struck out seven while only walking one, but surrendered seven hits, including two homers, in the loss.

5. Reid Brignac—Shortstop, Durham Bulls: For two years now, Brignac has been labeled as the Rays’ shortstop of the future. After Tampa Bay selected prep infielder Tim Beckham with the number one overall pick in the 2008 draft, however, it is no longer a sure thing. While Beckham, 18, is several years away from making an impact in the majors, many scouts feel that he has the athleticism, instincts, range and throwing arm to remain at the position as he rises up the Tampa Bay farm system. The Griffin High School product signed relatively quickly, and made his first start at shortstop for Rookie-level Princeton on Saturday night. Coming off a an MVP season in the California League in ’06, Brignac regressed at the plate at Double-A Montgomery last year, batting .260/.328/.433. Although he was among Montgomery team leaders with 17 homers, his approahc at the plate proved to be a cause for concern.  While he struggled at the plate, though, he made tremendous  progress in the field, emerging as one of the top defensive middle infielders in Double-A; this appears to have ended all of the discussion about Brignac being forced to make the switch to third base.

The offensive struggles have continued for Brignac at Triple-A in the first half of '08, as he has drawn only 21 walks in 74 games. In 271 at-bats, he has a .743 OPS, batting .260/.311/.435 with seven home runs through Sunday. The power potential is still there, but he needs to improve his approach at the plate. While he is no longer a sure bet, at least not to become the “shortstop of the future” in the Tampa Bay organization, he is still one of the more promising infielders in the International League.

6. Desmond Jennings—OF, Vero Beach Devil Rays: Jennings, a former quarterback recruit at the University of Alabama, is the best pure athlete in the Tampa Bay farm system. He made tremendous progress as a pure basbeall player in ’07, emerging as one of the Rays’ top position player prospects after hitting .315/.401/.465 for the South Atlantic League-champion Columbus Catfish. He also led the circuit with 45 steals, and, as he projects to hit for more power as he develops, has a realistic chance to turn into a 20-40 threat in the majors. He did not get off to the best start to this year, though, suffering a back injury and then injuring his left shoulder in spring training. While he missed the better part of the first two months of the season, he is now back, starting in the outfield and leading off for Vero Beach. In 23 games, he is batting .259/.357/.412 with two homers, five RBIs and five stolen bases in six chances.

7. Jeff Niemann—RHP, Durham Bulls: It has now been four years since Tampa Bay selected Niemann in the first round out of Rice University. A plethora of injury setbacks have made it seem even longer than that. While he is not yet a mainstay in the Rays’ starting rotation—as many predicted he would be at this point—he finally made his long-awaited big league debut this spring, going 1-1 with a 5.79 ERA in two big league appearances in April, when Tampa Bay starters Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza were on the shelf with injuries. At Durham, the former College World Series hero is 5-2 with a 4.20 ERA, posting a 51-to-20 K/W ratio and 1.19 WHIP while holding opposing batters to a .222 average in 55.2 innings pitched. All of the injuries have taken a toll on him, making it unlikely that he will turn into a future top-of-the-rotation starter in the majors. While he gets lost in mix because of the surplus of talented arms in the Tampa Bay system, however, he still has strong enough stuff to get hitters out and miss bats at the major league level.

8. Jeremy Hellickson—RHP, Montgomery Biscuits: Hellickson dominated the Florida State League this spring, going 7-1 with a 2.00 ERA in 14 starts with the Vero Beach Devil Rays. Hellickson, 21, showed a tremendous ability to miss bats, registering a 83-to-5 K/W ratio while limiting opponents to a .224 batting average in 76.2 innings pitched. He was named as the starting pitcher for the East squad in the league's All-Star game, though he did not pitch due to a blister on his pitching hand.

For his stellar performance, he—along with his Vero Beach teammate, Price—was promoted to Double-A Montgomery this week. For one of the first times of his young professional career, however, the Iowa product was hit hard on Friday night in the Biscuits’ 12-8 loss at Mobile. He allowed eight earned runs on eight hits, including five home runs, in 4.2 innings of work, striking out only one batter. With two outs in the fifth, he surrendered back-to-back-to-back homers, leading to his early exit from the game. While it was not the debut that he had in mind, the promotion to the next level is a huge step, perhaps a turning point, in his development. Tampa Bay has been patient with Hellickson since they selected him in the fourth round of the 2005 draft. His outstanding performance on the mound to this point, however, left the organization with little choice but to promote him. A Scout.com Top-100 prospect, how well he performs at Montgomery the rest of the summer will determine if he can inch up even higher on the list.

9. Eduardo Morlan—RHP, Montgomery Biscuits: Morlan is the minor leaguer whom Tampa Bay acquired in December’s blockbuster deal that ended Delmon Young’s days in St. Petersburg. While Jason Bartlett and Matt Garza—who nearly threw a no-hitter in a dominant one-hit complete game shutout against the Florida Marlins earlier this week—have had a direct impact on the Rays’ strong first-half, Morlan has the chance to really make the deal hurt for Minnesota. Like Jennings, though, he missed most of the first half, injuring his shoulder after six relatively ineffective performances to begin the season. He rejoined the Biscuits’ bullpen a few weeks ago, but has only made five relief appearances since coming back to the team. In 13.0 innings pitched, he has surrendered 17 hits, two of which were homers, eight runs (seven earned) while walking three. Despite an injury-plagued beginning to his tenure in the Tampa Bay farm system, he remains one of the top relief prospects in the minors.

10. Ryan Royster—Outfield, Vero Beach Devil Rays: Royster, selected by Tampa Bay out of an Oregon high school back in 2004, came out of nowhere to lead the Columbus Catfish to the Sally League Championship with a monster offensive season. He won the Organizational Triple Crown, batting .329/.380/.601 with a league-best 30 home runs and 98 RBIs. However, the transition to the Florida State League has not been as smooth for Royster, who has only eight extra-base hits and a .606 OPS in 70 games. He is hitting .244/.293/.313, and the only category in which he ranks among league leaders this go around is strikeouts, as he has been punched out 77 times.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

Add a comment   categories: Tampa Bay Rays, Evan Longoria, Desmond Jennings, Jake McGee, Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson, Jeff Niemann, David Price, Reid Brignac, Eduardo Morlan, Ryan Royster
 
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ABOUT ME


RaysDigest
Tyler Hissey recently graduated from Eckerd College in St. Petersburg, Florida, with a degree in business administratio
n. In addition to this blog, he covers Major League Baseball, focusing on the Tampa Bay Rays, for the up-and-coming
sports network Scout.com, and his work there is frequently syndicated on Foxsports.com
. To access his work, go to RaysDigest.co
m. In addition to his writing, he is a frequent guest on the Sports Cafe with Sean Duade on Sarasota FM 1220, where he serves as an MLB contributor. Prior to working at Scout, Hissey covered the Rays and Cincinnati Reds for MVN.com, better known as the Most Valuable Network. Before his brief stint with MVN, he wrote over 30 sports articles as a lead columnist at WeTalkSports.
com, a role which he filled during the summer of 2006. A Dean's List student at Eckerd, he was also nominated for the college's Writing Excellence Award during the 2006-2007 school year. To reach him, send an email to TylerHissey@g
mail.com.
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