But, now that Game 5 has finally ended, what are die-hard baseball fans going to do with their time?
Well, to some people, the season is only now beginning—the Hot Stove season, that is.
Several big-time players are available on the free-agent market, from sluggers Manny Ramirez and Mark Teixeira to record-setting closer Francisco Rodriguez and stud left-hander CC Sabathia.
Here is a list of the potential Type A free agents, courtesy of Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors.
Sabathia, it seems, is going to sell his services to the highest bidder, which will undoubtedly be the New York Yankees. The Yankees are moving across the street into New Yankee Stadium, which will generate even more revenue stream for the game’s ultimate financial superpower.
The Yankees’ rotation has some question marks, as Mike Mussina, who won 20 games, is expected to announce his retirement later this week, and the status of Andy Pettitte is unclear. Also, since the Phil Hughes/Ian Kennedy experiment did not go according to plan this year, the Yankees will almost certainly make a splash in the pitching market. Even if they fail to sign Sabathia, who was unbelievable for the Milwaukee Brewers down the stretch, count on them to make a solid push at several other Type A starting pitchers listed above.
The Yankees are also reportedly planning to pursue Teixeira as well. Jason Giambi’s stint in the Bronx appears to have come to an end either way, unless he decides to take a massive pay cut in a short-term deal.
Some other interesting names include Burnett, Burrell, Dunn and Lowe.
Burnett won 18 games, but his peripheral statistics all declined.
Burrell, who hit a huge double in the Phillies’ clinching Game 5 win last night, has excellent on-base skills and is coming off a decent season in which he hit 30-plus home runs. Although he has some deficiencies in his overall game, especially his poor defense and lack of speed, expect several organizations to make a serious run at him. He has spent his entire career in Philadelphia, but he seems ready to test the market, and it might not be in the Phillies' best interest to bring him back, anyway.
The Boston Red Sox have a big decision in regards to the status of Varitek, the captain. He had a down offensive season, posting a sub-.700 OPS, and was practically a guaranteed out in the second half. He is still a valuable defender behind the plate, however, and does a great job handling a pitching staff. A Scott Boras client, he will likely demand a lucrative, multi-year deal. There is no question that is value has diminished, though, and he may no longer be strong enough offensively to serve as a full-time catcher in the majors. If Theo Epstein can bring him back at a discounted rate, it would be wise for them to do so. He could share catching duties and help mentor a young backstop. Unfortunately, there is not a lot of catching depth in the Boston farm system, making it likely that Epstein will attempt to make a deal for a young catcher this offseason, regardless of what they decide to do with the veteran.
It is definitely going to be an exciting offseason, and there is no telling which players yet which uniforms several big-time stars will be wearing next season.
Two things are almost certain, though.
1. Boras, who represents Ramirez and Teixeira and several other stars, is only going to get richer, with a number of his clients due to receive lucrative deals.
2. The Yankees are going to reload by throwing big dollars at the best talent available, which is going to make the A.L. East all the more competitive.
The Phillies won the opener of the NLCS last night, as Chase Utley and then Pat Burrell connected for home runs off of Dodgers starter Derek Lowe in a three-run sixth inning.
While Citizen’s Bank Park is a hitter-friendly environment, Lowe hardly ever surrenders any long balls. And with a 2-0 lead headed into the sixth, it appeared as if the veteran right-hander and his club were going to cruise to a solid Game 1 win.
And, boy, that would have been huge for L.A. If they had beaten the Phils’ most effective starter, Cole Hamels, on the road, they would be in great shape right now.
But then Rafael Furcal made an uncharacteristic error, Utley and Burrell went yard and Hamels and the Phillies never looked back.
Inside The Box Score:
Phillies’ Side—
• The Phillies, as they have done consistently in the past, scored all of their runs in one inning. All runs came via the long ball as well.
• Burrell, catcher Carlos Ruiz and Utley combined for six of the Phillies’ seven hits. Hamels, who ripped a solid line shot into center field, had the other.
• Ruiz, who posted a line of .219/.320/.300 during the regular season, finished 2-for-3.
• Brad Lidge tossed a perfect ninth inning to pick up the save. Lidge, perhaps a sleeper Cy Young candidate, has now converted 44 saves in as many chances. It took him a while to overcome a hangover from the 2005 NLCS—when he gave up that monstrous shot to Albert Pujols while with the Astros—but he has reestablished himself as one of the most dominant closers in the game with Philadelphia. During the regular season, in fact, he was practically untouchable, limiting opposing hitters to an anemic line of .198/.295/.269 and .563 OPS while posting a 1.95 ERA in 72 appearances. If the Phils’ have the lead late in the game, Charlie Manuel can feel confident that his club is going to leave with a W.
• Hamels, by the way, was not too shabby on the mound on Thursday, either. The 24-year-old southpaw scattered two earned runs on six hits in seven solid innings, striking out eight. He threw 70 out of 105 pitches for strikes, though he did walk two batters.
Dodgers’ side—
• In case you had not heard, Manny Ramirez is a freakishly amazing, out-of-this-universe stud of a hitter. Ramirez picked up where he left of from the Division Series, driving a deep double to center field to score Andre Ethier in the first inning and stake the Dodgers an early lead. He finished 2-for-4, raising his postseason line to .500/.611/.1000. If you are scoring at home, that is a 1.611 OPS. Granted, the sample size is too small to get all worked up about, but this guy has been unbelievable since making the trip to the West Coast. As much pub as he gets, he kind of deserves it.
Tim McCarver can insult his behavior however he wants, but Ramirez has shown why he is arguably the best hitter in baseball when he is locked in. As a Dodger, he just does not make any outs, it seems. He blasted 17 bombs in 53 games after the trade, slugging .743 with a 1.232 OPS. In Citizen’s Bank Park, it might not be the in the Phillies’ best interest to throw him anything near the strike zone, unless they go up-and-in.
• While the Dodgers are certainly not happy about losing, there were some positives. This starts with the bullpen work, as three Dodger relievers combined to shut down the Phillies’ offense after Lowe was removed from the game with one out in the sixth inning.
• Chan #### Park—yes, that Chan #### Park is still pitching—retired two batters to get out of the frame with any more damage. Park, by the way, has provided a nice comeback story for baseball. While it is certainly not on the Ankiel/Hamilton level of overcoming the odds, it is quite amazing that he is back, and effective, in the majors at this point. He posted a 3.40 ERA in 54 games, including five starts, allowing 36 earned runs in 95.1 innings pitched. Sure, he pitched in ’07 with the Mets, but did anyone outside of Queens pick up on that?
• Well, now that the Chan #### tangent is out of the way, another unsuspecting reliever who pitched well was Greg Maddux. Maddux, one of the greatest starting pitchers of all time, tossed a scoreless seventh. His stuff is below-average now, but he still has excellent command and knows how to pitch. Still, though the inning of work may not seem significant in the loss, it does have other implications. This means that he will not make a start in the series, as Clayton Kershaw, who has tremendous stuff, will get the nod.
• Hong-Chih Kuo, who posted a 2.14 ERA, 96-to-21 K/W ratio and 1.01 WHIP in 42 regular season appearances, tossed a perfect ninth. Even without Saito, the Dodgers truly have an excellent bullpen, though some of the aforementioned stats were inflated by a friendly home pitching environment.
• Like Philadelphia, L.A. combined for seven hits. Man-Ram and Ethier combined for four of them, with Russell Martin, James Loney and Matt Kemp collecting the others.
Some other things that popped into my head.
• It is weird seeing Maddux in a relief role.
• Jeff Kent is old.
• Nomar belongs on the bench, even though Loney’s splits against lefties are far from impressive.
• This game featured two of the most exciting, fast leadoff-hitting shortstops in the game in Furcal and Jimmy Rollins. And they are both switch hitters, too. But neither player reached base, combining to go 0-for-8, and Furcal had the error. Still, it has to be nice to get him back in the lineup for L.A. He was a monster in April before his injury, posting a .357/.439/.573 slash stats line in 36 games overall.
Thinking about Game 2, it should be interesting to see which Brett Myers shows up. Myers was garbage in the first half, before being demoted to the minors. He returned to Philly rejuvenated, putting together a nice little string of quality starts together. He did struggle, however, in September.
Even with an effective Myers going for Philadelphia, L.A. has the edge in Chad Billingsley, who has excellent stuff and struck out 201 in 200.2 innings pitched during the regular season. Billingsley can shut any offense down on any given night, and was perhaps the most valuable arm on the Dodgers all year—16-10, 3.14 ERA, 1.34 WHIP. Anything can happen in one game, or a short series, which is why postseason baseball predictions are so ridiculous. Plus, the ballpark effect will play a factor, as the Coors Field of the East might play a role again. (Hey, if the game had been played in L.A. last night, Burrell and Utley would still be homerless for the series.) Still, I like the Dodgers in the second game.
The ballots are in. Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Corey Hart and Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria are headed to the 2008 All-Star Game at Yankee Stadium. Hart, a budding superstar, and Longoria, the leading candidate for the American League Rookie of the Year, benefited from strong election campaigns all across the Internet, edging out the competition to earn their first All-Star invitations.
With a record 47.8 million votes cast, baseball fans clearly enjoy this new voting feature. However, as is the case with the selection process for starters and reserves—where the coaches, players and fans all struggle to make decisions in an imperfect process—the fans do not always make the right decisions on the final ballot. If you disagree, look at the case of Jason Varitek, who will make an All-Star appearance despite his slash stats line of .220/.300/.360 and OPS+ of 73. Varitek, in fact, is struggling to make contact right now, and certainly did not deserve his selection.
Did the fans get it right in choosing Hart and Longoria, though?
Longoria is a deserving candidate, taking into consideration his role in the Rays’ recent surge to the top of the American League East standings. A smooth-fielding defender at third base, he has delivered enough walk-off hits to make David Ortiz jealous, emerging as the top rookie position player in the league. He is batting .281/.354/.525 with 16 home runs and 53 RBIs, and sits atop the leader board in nearly offensive statistical category among AL third baseman.
With the mainstream media’s recent infatuation with the Rays and a strong campaign sponsored by the organization, this decision was almost inevitable, forcing the former first-round pick to cancel a trip to Las Vegas with his buddies. It looks as if this will be the first of many All-Star trips for Longoria, who is leading Tampa Bay in homers and RBIs as well. For all that he has done for his team, in addition to his contributions in all facets of the game, it is hard to disagree with the fans’ final vote selection here.
Dye has enjoyed a fine season to this point in his own right, slugging .550 with 20 home runs in 86 games. The Chicago White Sox outfielder, who has picked up the slack for several of his fellow veteran teammates, ranks ninth in the league in OPS (.902), fourth among outfielders, and is one of only four players on the circuit with 20-plus homers. He has been a key cog in the White Sox’s lineup, producing big hits while Paul Konerko (.679 OPS, eight home runs) and Jim Thome (.846 OPS) have struggled to get things going at the plate.
The performance of Dye and Carlos Quentin, who was acquired in a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks this offseason and is leading the club with 21 jacks and 65 RBIs, is a major factor why Chicago currently resides in first place in a division that was expected to be one of the deepest in baseball. He is on the wrong side of 30 and struggled in the first half of 2007, causing Chicago to put him on the trade block only months after he produced one of the finest campaigns of his entire career last summer. He turned it around in the second half of '07, though, batting .298/.368/.579 for the White Sox, who then decided to sign him to a two-year extension. So far, it looks as Kenny Williams’ decision to keep Dye, who has fared better against right-handed pitchers so far, is justified, as he turned in an All-Star first half. Really, he has performed like an All-Star as well, perhaps even more so than Longoria.
Whether the mustache or the gold thong has anything to do with it, the 37-year-old Giambi is enjoying a nice bounce back season as well. After a foot injury sustained in May of last season sidelined him for several weeks, he did not provide the Yankees much of anything, finishing the year with a line of .236/.356/.433 while earning more than $20-million. Then, after a poor April, it looked as if his days as productive slugger were nearing the end. With the Yankees’ interest in soon-to-be free agent Mark Teixeira, Giambi’s days in New York seemed numbered as well. Since the infamous thong story broke, however, he has helped carry the New York offense, coming up with several crucial hits while Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez were on the DL and Robinson Cano was lost at the plate. Giambi, tied with Rodriguez for the team-lead in homers (18), now has the sixth-highest OPS (.925) in the league.
Despite a valiant effort, however, the American Mustache Institute failed in its attempt to create enough buzz to get Giambi elected onto the team.
Then there is Roberts, who is among league leaders with 102 base hits, 32 doubles and 25 stolen bases. One of the most productive offensive second baseman in the game, he has posted a line of .291/.372/.481, for one of the highest OPS (.853) totals at the keystone. A solid defender up the middle, he is one of the most underrated players in the game, truly. He has, however, been gunned down on the bases nine times in 34 tries. Regardless, the Orioles, enjoying surprising success, are lucky that they kept onto Roberts, who was nearly dealt to the Chicago Cubs this winter. As is the case with Giambi, it is easy to make the case for him as well, because he delivered an All-Star caliber first half.
Guillen finished last in the final ballot voting, perhaps because he plays in Kansas City. Well, two smaller markets—Milwaukee and Tampa Bay—got their players elected, so there goes that argument. Rather, it seems, the fans actually determined (correctly) that Guillen is undeserving of an All-Star bid. Since calling out his teammates earlier this spring at the height of the Royals’ inability to score runs, he has had his moments. He is leading the club with 13 homers and is among AL leaders with 65 RBIs. Overall, though, he has made far too many outs this season. A direct result of his inability to draw bases on balls (he has only 10 walks while striking out 67 times), his .298 OPS is nothing to write home about, bringing his OPS down to .768, hardly an All-Star mark. In fact, he does not place in the top 40 in the league in OPS, even sitting behind an aging teammate, second baseman Mark Grudzienlak, who is batting .314/.367/.419 for the fourth-place Royals.
Kansas City has a -63 run differential, and only three AL teams have scored fewer than its 386 runs scored as a team. While the performance of his former team, the Seattle Mariners, has made the Royals seem like an offensive juggernaut, Bill Bavasi was right to decline Guillen’s option for 2008. He had a nice season in ’07, batting .290/.353/.460 with 23 home runs and 93 RBIs in spacious Safeco Field, but reports of performance-enhancing drug use put that performance into question. While he hits for some power occasionally, he does not get on base enough, has had a questionable past, and his first half was not All-Star worthy.
It looks as if the fans did a nice job in the American League, but it would be hard to argue with any of the first four aforementioned players.
Hart is a nice player who should play a huge role in the postseason push for Milwaukee, which acquired an ace in left-hander CC Sabathia earlier this week. He does not, however, deserve to be an All-Star, at least not for 2008. The Kentucky native has certainly been a key cog in the Milwaukee offense, posting a .510 slugging percentage with 43 extra-base hits, including 15 homers, and 57 RBIs. He has also swiped 15 bases in 18 chances. Still, though, his .842 OPS is good for 28th in the National League, which makes it tough to choose him over Burrell or Wright.
It is definitely a good sign that the Brew Crew faithful helped get their guy elected, and hopefully the excitement level among the Milwaukee fan base will remain this high down the stretch.
Burrell deserved to get picked here, as he has been a force for the Phillies, who are currently in first place in the National League East. Burrell, fourth in the league in OPS (.993), has been one of the premier performers with the bat on the Senior Circuit to this point, slugging .581 with 22 homers and 54 RBIs. The former Miami star has had an up-and-down tenure in Philadelphia, which is why he is such a polarizing player among the Phillies’ fan base. This season, though, he is putting it all together at the right time—he is in a walk year—taking advantage of playing in Citizen’s Bank Park.
The Phillies recently locked up closer Brad Lidge, but it would not be a surprise if Burrell’s days in the city of Brotherly Love come to an end once the season is over. He was perhaps the biggest snub for the Mid-Summer Classic, though, and it is disappointing that he will not be playing in the Bronx on Tuesday night. In fact, if not for the brilliant play of Lance Berkman, Chipper Jones, Albert Pujols and teammate Chase Utley, Burrell might be getting some strong consideration for first-half MVP in his league. At the very least, he deserves to represent the National League, and it was a surprise that he was not selected by the coaches or players.
Burrell has undoubtedly had the most impact on his team of any of the candidates, but ended up finishing third out of the five. National League manager Clint Hurdle still has one decision left, and the Phillies slugger could end up as the replacement for injured outfielder Alfonso Soriano, who will be replaced in the starting lineup by Matt Holliday.
Wright is having a bit of a down year by his standards, but has still played well enough to confirm his place as perhaps the best player the age of 25 or younger in the National League. He is batting .288/.386/.511 with 17 home runs and 70 RBIs. Wright, a defensive stud who deserved to win the MVP award last year but paid the price for his teammates’ September woes in the eyes of the voters, may have just been snubbed again. While Chipper Jones’ monster first half led to an easy decision for the fans, Wright (.897 OPS) has been equally as valuable to the New York Mets as Aramis Ramirez (.900 OPS) has been to Chicago Cubs. If the Mets make a surprise push to supplant the Phillies in the NL East—they will have to, because the Wild Card will probably come out of the Central—he will again merit consideration for MVP.
Rowand, at 30 years old, is close to turning into a fourth outfielder in the near future, making the San Francisco Giants’ decision to offer him such a lucrative deal fairly puzzling.
This season, though, the gritty outfielder has provided one of the only bright spots for the anemic San Francisco offense, batting .296/.362/.453 with 26 doubles and eight home runs. Regardless, he has not performed like an All-Star, and it is unlikely that the veteran outfielder will do so ever again. A two-time Silver Slugger Award winner, Lee could add another silver bat to his trophy case if he continues to perform in the second half. He is batting .293/.345/.548 with 21 homers and 72 RBIs, helping pack punch in the middle of the Astros’ lineup alongside Berkman. All-in-all, Burrell and Longoria seem like the most deserving of the bunch, though the American League provided a far more difficult decision.
This had to help Longoria, who had #### Vitale on his side.
Update: Hurdle selected Wright, not Burrell, to take Soriano’s place on the National League All-Star roster.
On Saturday, I will be appearing on Sports Talk 1220 to discuss the All-Star game and the first-place Tampa Bay Rays at 3:20 P.M.
Brett Myers will try to work out his problems in the minors, as the Philadelphia Phillies optioned the veteran right-hander to Triple-A Lehigh Valley this afternoon.
Brett Myers, leading the major leagues with 24 home runs allowed and coming off the shortest start of his career with the Phillies, is headed to the minor leagues. Myers agreed to be optioned to Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Tuesday.
Myers, 3-9 after giving up five runs in two-plus innings in Friday night's 8-7 loss at Texas, has a 5.84 ERA, sixth worst in the majors among qualifying pitchers.
Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said he spoke with Myers on Monday about accepting the assignment to work on his delivery. Myers, who has more than five years experience in the majors, had the right to decline the assignment and asked for a day to consider the move.
The Phillies are 1-11 in the last 12 games started by Myers, who is 1-8 in that stretch.
Myers will start Wednesday night against Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
"We don't look at it as a demotion," pitching coach Rich Dubee said. "We look at it as the means to getting his delivery right. He's a guy we need."
Headed into spring training—when Myers pulled that hilarious prank on teammate Kyle Kendrick—many experts thought that Philadelphia made a tremendous upgrade to its pitching staff. While the club resisted the urge to overpay for a veteran free-agent starter—with Carlos Silva highlighting the list of available options, this was a wise decision—the acquisition of a talented closer, Brad Lidge, allowed Myers to move back into the Phillies’ rotation.
Everything has not gone according to plan, however.
Philadelphia is still in first place, with one of the best records in the inferior National League, where anything is possible. Myers has done little to help the Phillies’ cause, though, posting a 78 ERA+ in 17 games started before the demotion; the barometer for league average is 100. His velocity has been down a tick this season—he was consistently clocked in the 92-93-MPH range as a closer in ’07, but is now topping out in the upper-80s—and he has struggled with his command as well; he ranks 10th in the NL with 44 bases on balls.
Clearly, something is not right with him. Whether he needs to refine his approach—due to the drop off in velocity—and reinvent himself on the mound, or his problems are the result of a health issue, the organization can only hope that he can get things straightened out down in the minors.
While the Phillies remain the favorite to win the East, the club needs an effective Myers in the second half. Philadelphia, 45-39, still has an excellent +77 run differential, outscoring its opponents 428-351. But imagine where they would be if Myers had lived up to his pre-season projections in the first half, especially with the Atlanta Braves’ unprecedented struggles in one-run games.
This season, Philadelphia has used five starters, ace Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Kendrick, Adam Eaton and Myers. Overall, the group has combined to post a 4.51 ERA. That number, however, is inflated by the poor performance of Myers, who was forced to become the Phillies’ closer after Tom Gordon went down with an injury early in 2007.
Hamels was one of the best starters in baseball in the first half, limiting opponents to a line of .212/.264/.378. He is a misleading 8-5 with a 3.38 ERA and is among league leaders with 103 punchouts. A command specialist, he has walked only 31 in a club-best 120.0 innings pitched.
Moyer does whatever it takes to get the job done. The 45-year-old is turning into the Julio Franco of pitching, and continues to frustrate hitters by using his control and savvy on the mound to keep them off balance.
Then there is Eaton, whom many people thought would never make an impact in the city of Brotherly Love after his disastrous ’07 campaign. While he has not exactly been stellar—.816 opponents’ OPS—he has given his team a chance to win in several of his starts, providing some value for them over the season’s first couple months.
Kendrick has done his part as well. Really, it is a good thing that he was not actually traded to Japan for the famous hot dog eating champion Kobayashi, as Myers, manager Jerry Manuel and club officials tricked him into thinking this March. Although he was a savior for the Phils down the stretch a year ago, he has been equally effective—though he has had a great deal of run support—this season, going 7-3 in the first half.
Myers, however, has been a major disappointment, as you can see from the numbers mentioned in the blurb above from the Associated Press. But a 3-9 record and 1.56 WHIP hardly tell the whole story of his struggles. In 101.2 innings pitched, he has posted an opponents’ OPS of .907. To put this into perspective, consider this: There are only 10 hitters who have posted a higher total in this statistical category in the National League, including the likes of Chipper Jones and Myers’ teammate, All-Star second baseman Chase Ultey.
So, yeah, if he can get it figured out and turn into the Myers of old once he returns, Philadelphia could run away with this thing. The NL East figures to remain as one of the least competitive divisions the rest of the way.
With a dynamic offense led by stars such as surging Pat Burrell, Ryan Howard and Utley, the club will definitely score its fair share of runs. Not to mention, the Phillies’ bullpen has been excellent, as Lidge has regained his old—he has had confidence issues ever since giving up the infamous walk-off home run to Albert Pujols in the NLCS—form. In fact, he has been one of the best closers in the game so far, posting a 0.84 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 42-to-15 K/W ratio while averaging 11.81 strikeouts per nine innings in 32.0 innings pitched. Not to mention, he is among league leaders with 18 saves.
The Florida Marlins, one of the year’s best stories, are likely to fade, as they have a negative run differential. There is no telling if Atlanta can rely on its young pitchers the rest of the summer. Sure enough, Charlie Morton struggled as the teams went head-to-head tonight, allowing five earned runs on eight hits in the Phillies’ 8-3 win. Jones and Mark Kotsay did return to the lineup for the game, though, which should provide the Braves a nice boost; Jones was expected to hit the DL.
It should be interesting to see how this plays out. It is safe to say, the club prankster (see video below) is not laughing anymore. Perhaps Kobayashi would have been more effective over the first three months than Myers.
Note: I wrote this post a few days ago for Scout.com, and the stats mentioned are not accurate.
After a torrid start, Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley, batting .247/.354/.457 in June, has cooled down at the plate as of late. The majors' home run leader entering the month, Utley has hit only three homers in 81 June at-bats. From May 28 to June 2, he homered in five consecutive games, as Philadelphia won four of five. But Utley's last home run came nearly three weeks ago in the Phillies' 20-2 thumping over the St. Louis Cardinals on June 13. During his slump, his NL East second base counterpart, Dan Uggla (23 homers entering Saturday), has surpassed him for the major league lead in home runs.
Throughout the month Utley has continued to play excellent defense--he does not get enough credit for his achievements with the glove--at second base. It is no coincidence, however, that his offensive struggles have coincided with the Phillies' recent slide. While Interleague Play has not been friendly to many teams on the Senior Circuit, the Phils’ are 2-9 since they put up 20 runs in St. Louis. During that period, Utley posted a line of .143/.245/.238, as he has collected only six base hits in his last 42 at-bats.
As a team in the month of June, Philadelphia is batting .233/.325/.395, for a putrid OPS of .716, and has scored 103 runs. Utley is the key bat for Phillies, who are still the favorite to win the National League East. While the club, currently 43-38, has just a one-game lead over the Florida Marlins in the division, it has outscored opponents 411-337. The Phillies’ run differential of 74, in fact, is one of the best in the majors.
Led by Utley, his double-play partner, Jimmy Rollins, and the surging Pat Burrell, Philadelphia ranks fourth in the majors in runs scored. Despite the swoon this month, the club still boasts one of the most dynamic offenses as Major League Baseball enters the second half of its season. The Phillies also sit 10th in team ERA, 3.90, led by young left-hander Cole Hamels.
Hamels has posted an opponents’ line of .210/.262/.377, striking out 95 while only walking 29. Overall, he is 7-5 with a 3.27 ERA and the second-lowest WHIP (1.03) in the National League in 113.0 innings pitched.
Kyle Kendrick has a low batting average on balls in play, pointing towards regression. However, Kendrick, a savior for Philadelphia down the stretch last season, is coming off arguably the most dominant outing of his career. On Wednesday, he stopped the bleeding for the Phillies against the American League, tossing eight four-hit, shutout innings in a win over the Oakland Athletics. While he has received his fair share of run support, he is 7-3 in 16 starts, with the 10th-highest winning percentage in baseball.
Jamie Moyer is an ageless wonder. Moyer has been solid, going 7-5 with a1.36 WHIP.
Brett Myers’ return to the rotation was supposed to give the Phillies a huge boost. Myers’ once-plus velocity has eluded him this spring, however, and he has struggled with his command at times. If he can get it going post-break, the Phillies will add an impact arm before the trade deadline, by default.
Francisco Rodriguez may be on pace to break Bobby Thigpen’s single-season saves record, given how plentiful save chances are for the low-scoring Los Angeles Angels. Still, one could make the case that Phillies closer Brad Lidge has been the better ninth-inning stopper this season. Lidge was acquired in a deal with the Houston Astros this offseason in exchange for speedster Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary and a minor leaguer. Labeled as a “head case with lights-out stuff,” many applauded Pat Gillick for pulling the trigger on the deal, because it allowed Myers to convert back to a starter. Lidge, however, has been invaluable to Philadelphia, limiting opponents to a line of .157/.258/.185 while picking up 18 saves in as many chances. In 30.1 innings pitched, he is 1-0 with a 0.87 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.
With such a balanced attack—despite its recent struggles against teams from the superior league—Philadelphia is still the favorite entering the season’s final 81 games. At the same time, the Marlins--with a starting rotation consisting of mediocre starting pitchers such as former NBA player Mark Hendrickson--have actually been outscored by the competition, with a -15 run differential. This indicates that Florida has had its fair share of luck this season.
After being swept by the Tampa Bay Rays this week, the Marlins appear to be a pretender at this juncture, while their in-state rival established themselves as legitimate threat in the American League East. Florida is batting .252./.318/.441 as a team. Every starter in the Marlins' infield--Jorge Cantu (14, .811 OPS), Mike Jacobs (18, .785 OPS), Hanley Ramirez (.17, .904 OPS) and Uggla--has reached double digits in home runs.
The pitching staff down in Miami, however, has been a cause for concern. Thus, it is unlikely that the team will maintain its current win/loss record.
Josh Johnson is on his way back to majors, getting ready to make one of his last rehab appearances.
Andrew Miller, 5-6 with a 1.60 WHIP, has had some issues with command, but has flashed brief glimpses of his tremendous potential.
Scott Olsen has rebounded from a tumultuous '07 campaign, posting a 3.44 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in his first 16 starts.
Regardless, the Marlins' starting rotation, which has posted an opponents’ line of .276/.347/.345, will not be an area of strength for the club down the stretch. Thus, as the bats cool off, the Marlins could fall too far out of contention to make a realistic push for the postseason.
The Atlanta Braves are on pace to set a record for the most one-run losses in a single season; if the team won half of those contests they would perhaps be atop the standings right now in the division. Cleary, Atlanta has had its fair share of bad luck, as their +47 run differential indicates.
Still, at 40-41, the Braves are only three games back in the East. Despite all of the losses in close games, they are a legitimate threat--perhaps the Phillies' most realistic competition--to reach the postseason, especially if the breaks start to bounce their way in the second half.
Brian McCann has the highest OPS, .921, among all catchers in the majors.
Chipper Jones is enjoying arguably the strongest first half of his career, batting .394/.485/.630, for the majors’ best OPS (1.115). While eclipsing the .400 plateau seems unlikely, Atlanta needs Jones’ bat--assuming he can stay healthy, which is a big if--to continue to carry them following the All-Star break. If he can remain on the field and the Braves are playing meaningful games in September, he has a strong chance to add an MVP award to his stellar resume.
Coming off a three-homer game, soon-to-be free-agent first baseman Mark Teixeira seems destined to have a strong second half. With a long-term, $100-million deal awaiting him this winter, Teixeira--currently batting .271/.365/.471--has plenty of motivation to put up lofty numbers after the break. With Atlanta still in the hunt, it is unlikely that the organization would consider dealing him before the trade deadline, though the club is reportedly interested in adding another bat to solidify their lineup. Pittsburgh outfielders Jason Bay and Xavier Nady have surfaced in rumors, and--at the right price for GM Frank Wren--either outfielder could be the right match.
Even with the absence of veterans Mike Hampton, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz, Atlanta still boasts a formidable pitching staff, and seems set on starting pitching.
Jorge Campillo, 1.02 WHIP in eight starts, has been a solid upgrade, missing bats to the tune of a 53-to-12 K/W ratio.
Tim Hudson, as usual, continues to anchor the staff. Hudson, 8-5, has registered a 2.96 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 109.1 innings pitched.
Jair Jurrjens has been the premier rookie starting pitcher through the midway point, going 8-3 with a 2.94 ERA. Jurrjens, acquired this offseason in the trade that sent Edgar Renteria to Detroit, is a strong candidate to take home NL Rookie of the Year honors in a deep class of newcomers. He has posted an opponents' OPS of .666, 1.32 WHIP and 69-to-37 K/W ratio, surrendering only 32 earned runs and 92 hits in 98.0 innings pitched.
Another youngster, Charlie Morton, will get a crack in the second half as well. Morton, who established himself as a solid major league prospect with a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League in 2007, has had an up-and-down stint in the minors since the Braves selected him out of Joel Barlow High School in Redding, Connecticut back in 2002.
After Philadelphia, it seems, Atlanta has the most realistic chance of winning the division crown.
The New York Mets, 39-40, have a -2 run differential, and are unlikely to emerge as a realistic contender in the second half.
Manager change or not--honestly, will Jerry Manuel make that much of a difference?--this club seems destined to miss the postseason for the second consecutive year. There has been a lot of talk about how New York has underachieved. But have they, really? Like the myth that the Seattle Mariners are underperforming--solely because they added Erik Bedard this offseason to a team that was lucky to remain in postseason contention last summer--many people view the Mets’ poor first half as a surprise. After all, they added All-Star left-hander Johan Santana--the best starter in baseball from 2004-to-'06--to the starting pitching mix this offseason.
Still, though, the New York appears to be headed towards a .500 season, which really is not all that much of shock.
The Mets’ chapter in the 2008 Baseball Prospectus handbook ends like this: "The Mets endured a shocking last-minute disappointment in 2007. Unable or unwilling to undertake a needed rebuilding of their aging roster, the Mets will suffer more disappointment in 2008, only this year it will start on Opening Day."
Omar Minaya’s job seems safe, but should it be? He has thrown far too much money at aging stars on the decline--some players whom have never been stars; Luis Castillo at four years, $25-million, for example. Yet again, the ’08 version of the Mets proves that a high payroll does not guarantee success.
Jose Reyes and David Wright (.844 and .874 OPS, respectively) have not provided as much offensive production as they are capable of. Outside of the talented left-side of the New York infield, though, most hitters on the roster are staying in line with their pre-season projections.
Carlos Delgado needed a nine-RBI performance on Friday night to improve his OPS to .734. Delgado, an aging 36-year-old who inches towards replacement-level caliber with every passing day, is batting .233/.313/.422. It is no secret; his days as a productive offensive player are long gone.
While the offense has struggled--as a team, the club ranks 13th in runs scored, 19th in home runs (71) and OPS (.728) and 21st in batting average--the club's veteran starting rotation is equally as concerning.
Can Pedro Martinez stay healthy over the next 81 games? Martinez is 2-2 with a 7.12 ERA in six starts.
Oliver Perez is consistently inconsistent, a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde impersonator out on the mound. He has struggled with his command as well, currently ranking second in the National League with 52 walks. Overall, the 26-year-old southpaw is 5-5 with a 5.29 ERA, opponents' OPS of .802 and 1.56 WHIP. Hitters are batting .252/.374/.427 against him in 83.1 innings pitched.
Santana no longer has the same dominant stuff that he had in Minnesota a few years ago, but has still been the most effective New York starter. While he has given up 14 home runs--he allowed 33 in '07--he has been a lot more effective than his 7-6 record indicates, posting a team-best 2.93 ERA.
Still, with the Mets' pitching staff and anemic offense, odds are against a repeat of last season's historic September collapse. Unfortunately, though, the reason is that the club will not have a division lead to give away, as a third-place finish appears likely for Mr. Minaya’s overpaid bunch of veterans.
The Washington Nationals, currently 11 games back, do not have the personnel to make a late-season charge. With Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge, though, there is still entertainment value from the baseball team in DC.
There is a great deal of baseball left to be played, and the NL East is still wide open. At this point, though, Atlanta and Philadelphia appear to be the most realistic contenders in the division.
Tyler Hissey recently graduated from Eckerd College in St. Petersburg, Florida, with a degree in business administratio n. In addition to this blog, he covers Major League Baseball, focusing on the Tampa Bay Rays, for the up-and-coming sports network Scout.com, and his work there is frequently syndicated on Foxsports.com . To access his work, go to RaysDigest.co m.
In addition to his writing, he is a frequent guest on the Sports Cafe with Sean Duade on Sarasota FM 1220, where he serves as an MLB contributor.
Prior to working at Scout, Hissey covered the Rays and Cincinnati Reds for MVN.com, better known as the Most Valuable Network. Before his brief stint with MVN, he wrote over 30 sports articles as a lead columnist at WeTalkSports. com, a role which he filled during the summer of 2006.
A Dean's List student at Eckerd, he was also nominated for the college's Writing Excellence Award during the 2006-2007 school year.
To reach him, send an email to TylerHissey@g mail.com.
