The New York Yankees made their first notable move of what is expected
to be a busy offseason this past week, acquiring Nick Swisher and
Kaneoka Teixeira from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for Wilson
Betemit, Jhonny Nunez and Jeff Marquez.
Credit Brian Cashman for
taking a flier on Swisher, who is coming off one of his worst
single-season performances but has been a productive major league
hitter in the past. Cashman is buying low, which is usually an
effective investment strategy.
The deal, then, is an early win
for the Yankees under one condition: it does not prevent them from
making a serious run at free-agent first baseman Mark Teixeira.
Swisher
may turn out to be a bust, yet is a breakout candidate in a new
environment. He is about to turn 28, often times the peak for hitters,
and is a lock to hit 20-plus home runs per year while drawing 80-plus
walks. His value is at its low right now, though, because of his .219
batting average with the White Sox.
Swisher has never been able
to hit for a high average in the past, but his ’08 clip is misleading.
He posted an unusually low BABIP—batting average on balls in play, not
accounting for home runs and strikeouts—at .251. With a decent line
drive rate, it indicates that he was the victim of plain old bad luck.
Three True Outcome players have fluctuating BABIP totals generally, but
expect that mark to regress back to the mean in 2009. This will
potentially push his batting average around his previous career norm of
.250.
Swisher has been an above-average offensive player in the
past, posting OPS totals of .865 and .835 in his final two years with
the Oakland Athletics. He is clearly not a savior, but is a nice bat to
add to the lineup. The Yankees have the chance to gain considerable
value from this deal if he can get his average back up to an acceptable
level and post numbers consistent with his career line of
.244/.354/.451/.805 OPS. He is also a capable defender—though below
average in center field—at first base and each corner outfield
position; expect him to fill multiple roles in New York.
Still,
according to Cashman, Swisher is expected to be the Yankees’ opening
day first baseman. This is perhaps only a strategy to drive the price
tag down for Teixeira, arguably the best position player available and
who will draw interest from a number of suitors. If New York does not
sign the switch-hitting slugger, their new option will be a defensive
upgrade over Jason Giambi, whose offensive production will be difficult
to replace in this scenario. Jorge Posada is also expected to see some
innings at the position as well.
If Swisher takes over full
time, though, he will leave the Yankees with another below-average
hitter at an important position; his bat simply does not play as well
at first base as it does in the outfield.
The Yankees would be
better suited signing Teixeira, of course, with Swisher taking over in
left field for the declining Hideki Matsui and filling various needs
throughout the course of the season. If this occurs, this deal could
turn out to be a steal.
The other Teixeira (unfortunately for
Yankees fans, not Mark) was just a throw-in, but will likely establish
himself as a middle reliever in the majors at some point. The
22-year-old right-hander missed bats to the tune of a 9.67 K/9 in 15
Double-A appearances in ’08, striking out nearly a batter per inning
(60 in 61.0) combined between two levels. He posted a 1.33 ERA while
picking up 22 saves overall.
Teixeira relies on a fairly average
sinker/slider combination, but has poor command of his pitches. His
slider is close to being a plus pitch, which has been the biggest
reason for his minor league success. Look for him to surface in a few
years, especially if he can add a few ticks to his fastball and make
some strides on the command front. His ceiling is fairly limited,
though; his stuff leaves a bit to be desired, according to several
scouts, and he projects as a typical big league reliever.
On the Chicago side, they clearly did not receive as much in return as they sent to Oakland for Swisher last winter.
Betemit
was once a top prospect, but, at 27, is unlikely to ever garner regular
time in the majors. He can play multiple positions adequately—he logged
innings at every infield position for the Yankees—but his plate
discipline never caught up to the talent offensively. Barring a huge
power breakout, he is unlikely to ever be more than a capable utility
bat due to his inability to draw walks. In 1098 career at-bats, he has
produced a line of .260/.325/.437, with 42 home runs.
Marquez
has been hyped as a top prospect in the New York farm system since
getting selected in the supplemental first round back in 2004. He has
not really lived up to the prospect billing since then, however. The
right-hander lacks a true out pitch currently, as he relies on a
mediocre curve ball when he is ahead in the count. Since he has not
developed one, he has not been able to miss bats; in 14 Triple-A
starts, he posted a poor 3.68 K/9 ratio, with only 33 Ks in 80.2
innings pitched.
Marquez has an average fastball with pretty
good sink, but has left a lot to be desired with his performance to
this point. He could develop into something if he can add another plus
pitch, probably a cut fastball, but was pretty expendable as far as the
Yankees were concerned.
Nunez is a nice long-term sleeper who
could develop, but is pretty far away. He began the season in the
Washington Nationals organization. He spent a large portion of the
first half as a starter in High-A ball, where he flashed the ability to
rack up strikeouts—82 Ks in 81.0 innings pitched—before reaching
Double-A as a reliever. He was then shipped to the Yankees, who kept
him in a relief role at the same level.
Nunez projects as a middle reliever in the long run, but will need to induce more ground ball outs to keep rising.
The White Sox, under Ken Williams, are expected to make a splash in the Hot Stove this winter. According to Ken Rosenthal,
Williams has only just begun dealing. It may have been too soon to
unload Swisher at this point, though, given his fairly solid track
record and plus on-base skills. Considering what they sent to Oakland
for him— Gio Gonzalez, Faustino de los Santos and Ryan Sweeney, a
pretty solid group of prospects—they appear to be pretty big losers for
their efforts.
This deal may end up as a wash for New York, but
Swisher has the potential to make a real impact for them as they
attempt to regain prominence in the American League East—all for a
relatively cheap price.
Ken Griffey Jr. did something almost unheard of in professional baseball.
He took less money to come back to his hometown, hoping to bring a World Series title back to Cincinnati and remind fans of the Big Red Machine and Nasty Boy days.
Griffey spent much of his stint with the Reds on DL, however.
Not only did he miss out on the opportunity to potentially chase Hank
Aaron for the all-time home run record, the center field icon did not
help Cincy end its championship drought.
The Griffey era has finally come an end. Griffey has—he had the right to veto any deal—accepted a
trade to the Chicago White Sox. So with all of the trade talk about Adam Dunn, his counterpart on the other side of the outfield was the one to go after all.
Let us face it. The Reds are doing the right thing by dealing
the aging slugger. They are 51-58, completely out of the competitive
National League central race. Griffey, who joined the 600 home run club
back in June, also sparked interest from his former team, the Seattle Mariners,
for whom he won the Player of the Decade in the 1990s, hit 56 home runs
in season twice and made an annual habit of winning Gold Glove awards.
While the franchise waited for Griffey to hit that historic homer, the
Mariners’ offensive woes and the bust that is Erik Bedard spun them into a losing tailspin, ending all of the reunion talk.
Which pretty much destroyed the likelihood that he would get
shipped. In fact, the Reds GM, Walt Jocketty, received about as much
interest from other teams about Griffey as he did with, say, Corey Patterson.
Zilch.
Until now.
Which is good for both Griffey and the Reds.
Jocketty can now move the organization forward with an eye
towards the future without having to worry about the fallout from not
picking up Griffey's $16-million option this offseason. The next
generation—a core consisting of Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez and Joey Votto, among other young talented players—has arrived.
And while Griffey has finally stayed on the field enough to play
in 102 games, all of the injuries, age and declining bat speed have
taken a toll. His swing is still a thing of beauty, and he has brought
back many happy memories on each of his classic 15 home run strokes.
However, he has only produced a line of .245/.355/.432, posting a low
OPS (.787) for a right fielder.
Although Griffey made a rather insulting gesture to announcer
Jeff Brantley last week—when hitting a home run, no less—about his
option for next year, it would not have been in the Reds’ best interest
for them to pick it up. He has done many great things in the past, but,
at 38 years old, he is no longer a star and will only continue to
decline. He is always a risk to get hurt, of course, and was almost
certainly unlikely be part of the next truly great Cincinnati
postseason team. Essentially, the franchise would have been crazy to
bring him back at such a high price. In his eyes, the organization owed
it to him he made it seem with his actions, perhaps as a favor for
taking less money before.
Handing out favors and keeping the manager—Dusty Baker, who is
close with Junior—happy are nice. Wins, and a potential future
postseason run, are better.
Griffey is no longer the same Gold-Glove-caliber outfielder, either. To put it simply, he has lost not only one step, but two. Crashing into walls will do that a man.
Which makes the American League, where he can receive at-bats at designated hitter, an ideal place for him.
Going to Chicago, Griffey will also benefit for other reasons as
well. The White Sox are the favorite to bring home the American League
Central division crown. Wearing the black and white, he has the chance
to play for a winner for the first time since his days with the
Mariners. Back then, Randy Johnson
was the best pitcher in the game, A-Rod had not yet mingled with
Madonna and Joey Cora, his new bench coach, was still playing a mean
second base.
While it is uncertain where he will play, he was smart to sign
off on the deal and reunite with his old pal, Cora. However, the White
Sox’s outfield is set in all three spots—with Jermaine Dye in right, MVP candidate Carlos Quentin in left and Nick Swisher in center—and DH Jim Thome
(.885 OPS, 19 homers) is having a nice season in his own right. So, it
remains to be seen how much of and where he will make an impact in the
Windy City.
Hypothetically speaking, Swisher, who is not a true center
fielder, may move back to first base. This will potentially send
struggling first baseman Paul Konkerko (.661 OPS, nine home runs) to
the bench on occasion. But can Griffey still handle such a demanding
position? With a playoff berth at stake, it might not be worth the
risk. His range has declined, he has not played there on a regular
basis in two years and it remains to be seen if he can physically
handle the rigors of the position.
Still, Griffey, who hit 30 home runs and posted an OPS in the
mid-.800s in 2007, could make a nice comeback to help Chicago in its
quest to reach the postseason. Moving into the other league, he is a
candidate to regain his power stroke with the chance to turn a nice
performance down the stretch into a multi-year contract this winter.
Also, the White Sox essentially gave up nothing to acquire his
services, sending reliever Nick Masset and Triple-A second baseman
Danny Richar back to the Reds. Masset is a typical major league bullpen
arm who is easily replaceable. Richar, a 25-year-old middle infielder,
projects as only a backup to Brandon Phillips.
Either way, Griffey is closer to a ring with the White Sox than he ever has been with the Reds.
By getting his contract off the books, though, Cincinnati is now closer to playing meaningful baseball games in the future as well.
Tyler Hissey recently graduated from Eckerd College in St. Petersburg, Florida, with a degree in business administratio n. In addition to this blog, he covers Major League Baseball, focusing on the Tampa Bay Rays, for the up-and-coming sports network Scout.com, and his work there is frequently syndicated on Foxsports.com . To access his work, go to RaysDigest.co m.
In addition to his writing, he is a frequent guest on the Sports Cafe with Sean Duade on Sarasota FM 1220, where he serves as an MLB contributor.
Prior to working at Scout, Hissey covered the Rays and Cincinnati Reds for MVN.com, better known as the Most Valuable Network. Before his brief stint with MVN, he wrote over 30 sports articles as a lead columnist at WeTalkSports. com, a role which he filled during the summer of 2006.
A Dean's List student at Eckerd, he was also nominated for the college's Writing Excellence Award during the 2006-2007 school year.
To reach him, send an email to TylerHissey@g mail.com.