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Yanks Do Well In Swisher Deal
Nov 16, 2008 | 10:43AM | report this
The New York Yankees made their first notable move of what is expected to be a busy offseason this past week, acquiring Nick Swisher and Kaneoka Teixeira from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for Wilson Betemit, Jhonny Nunez and Jeff Marquez.

Credit Brian Cashman for taking a flier on Swisher, who is coming off one of his worst single-season performances but has been a productive major league hitter in the past. Cashman is buying low, which is usually an effective investment strategy.

The deal, then, is an early win for the Yankees under one condition: it does not prevent them from making a serious run at free-agent first baseman Mark Teixeira.

Swisher may turn out to be a bust, yet is a breakout candidate in a new environment. He is about to turn 28, often times the peak for hitters, and is a lock to hit 20-plus home runs per year while drawing 80-plus walks. His value is at its low right now, though, because of his .219 batting average with the White Sox.

Swisher has never been able to hit for a high average in the past, but his ’08 clip is misleading. He posted an unusually low BABIP—batting average on balls in play, not accounting for home runs and strikeouts—at .251. With a decent line drive rate, it indicates that he was the victim of plain old bad luck. Three True Outcome players have fluctuating BABIP totals generally, but expect that mark to regress back to the mean in 2009. This will potentially push his batting average around his previous career norm of .250.

Swisher has been an above-average offensive player in the past, posting OPS totals of .865 and .835 in his final two years with the Oakland Athletics. He is clearly not a savior, but is a nice bat to add to the lineup. The Yankees have the chance to gain considerable value from this deal if he can get his average back up to an acceptable level and post numbers consistent with his career line of .244/.354/.451/.805 OPS. He is also a capable defender—though below average in center field—at first base and each corner outfield position; expect him to fill multiple roles in New York.

Still, according to Cashman, Swisher is expected to be the Yankees’ opening day first baseman. This is perhaps only a strategy to drive the price tag down for Teixeira, arguably the best position player available and who will draw interest from a number of suitors. If New York does not sign the switch-hitting slugger, their new option will be a defensive upgrade over Jason Giambi, whose offensive production will be difficult to replace in this scenario. Jorge Posada is also expected to see some innings at the position as well.

If Swisher takes over full time, though, he will leave the Yankees with another below-average hitter at an important position; his bat simply does not play as well at first base as it does in the outfield.

The Yankees would be better suited signing Teixeira, of course, with Swisher taking over in left field for the declining Hideki Matsui and filling various needs throughout the course of the season. If this occurs, this deal could turn out to be a steal.

The other Teixeira (unfortunately for Yankees fans, not Mark) was just a throw-in, but will likely establish himself as a middle reliever in the majors at some point. The 22-year-old right-hander missed bats to the tune of a 9.67 K/9 in 15 Double-A appearances in ’08, striking out nearly a batter per inning (60 in 61.0) combined between two levels. He posted a 1.33 ERA while picking up 22 saves overall.

Teixeira relies on a fairly average sinker/slider combination, but has poor command of his pitches. His slider is close to being a plus pitch, which has been the biggest reason for his minor league success. Look for him to surface in a few years, especially if he can add a few ticks to his fastball and make some strides on the command front. His ceiling is fairly limited, though; his stuff leaves a bit to be desired, according to several scouts, and he projects as a typical big league reliever.

On the Chicago side, they clearly did not receive as much in return as they sent to Oakland for Swisher last winter.

Betemit was once a top prospect, but, at 27, is unlikely to ever garner regular time in the majors. He can play multiple positions adequately—he logged innings at every infield position for the Yankees—but his plate discipline never caught up to the talent offensively. Barring a huge power breakout, he is unlikely to ever be more than a capable utility bat due to his inability to draw walks. In 1098 career at-bats, he has produced a line of .260/.325/.437, with 42 home runs.

Marquez has been hyped as a top prospect in the New York farm system since getting selected in the supplemental first round back in 2004. He has not really lived up to the prospect billing since then, however. The right-hander lacks a true out pitch currently, as he relies on a mediocre curve ball when he is ahead in the count. Since he has not developed one, he has not been able to miss bats; in 14 Triple-A starts, he posted a poor 3.68 K/9 ratio, with only 33 Ks in 80.2 innings pitched.

Marquez has an average fastball with pretty good sink, but has left a lot to be desired with his performance to this point. He could develop into something if he can add another plus pitch, probably a cut fastball, but was pretty expendable as far as the Yankees were concerned.

Nunez is a nice long-term sleeper who could develop, but is pretty far away. He began the season in the Washington Nationals organization. He spent a large portion of the first half as a starter in High-A ball, where he flashed the ability to rack up strikeouts—82 Ks in 81.0 innings pitched—before reaching Double-A as a reliever. He was then shipped to the Yankees, who kept him in a relief role at the same level.

Nunez projects as a middle reliever in the long run, but will need to induce more ground ball outs to keep rising.

The White Sox, under Ken Williams, are expected to make a splash in the Hot Stove this winter. According to Ken Rosenthal, Williams has only just begun dealing. It may have been too soon to unload Swisher at this point, though, given his fairly solid track record and plus on-base skills. Considering what they sent to Oakland for him— Gio Gonzalez, Faustino de los Santos and Ryan Sweeney, a pretty solid group of prospects—they appear to be pretty big losers for their efforts.

This deal may end up as a wash for New York, but Swisher has the potential to make a real impact for them as they attempt to regain prominence in the American League East—all for a relatively cheap price.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.
5 Comments | Add a comment   categories: New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox, Nick Swisher, Wilson Betemit, Ken Rosenthal
 
Moving On Good For Griffey, Reds
Aug 01, 2008 | 8:02AM | report this

Ken Griffey Jr. did something almost unheard of in professional baseball.

He took less money to come back to his hometown, hoping to bring a World Series title back to Cincinnati and remind fans of the Big Red Machine and Nasty Boy days.

Griffey spent much of his stint with the Reds on DL, however. Not only did he miss out on the opportunity to potentially chase Hank Aaron for the all-time home run record, the center field icon did not help Cincy end its championship drought.

The Griffey era has finally come an end. Griffey has—he had the right to veto any deal—accepted a trade to the Chicago White Sox. So with all of the trade talk about Adam Dunn, his counterpart on the other side of the outfield was the one to go after all.

Let us face it. The Reds are doing the right thing by dealing the aging slugger. They are 51-58, completely out of the competitive National League central race. Griffey, who joined the 600 home run club back in June, also sparked interest from his former team, the Seattle Mariners, for whom he won the Player of the Decade in the 1990s, hit 56 home runs in season twice and made an annual habit of winning Gold Glove awards. While the franchise waited for Griffey to hit that historic homer, the Mariners’ offensive woes and the bust that is Erik Bedard spun them into a losing tailspin, ending all of the reunion talk.

Which pretty much destroyed the likelihood that he would get shipped. In fact, the Reds GM, Walt Jocketty, received about as much interest from other teams about Griffey as he did with, say, Corey Patterson.

Zilch.

Until now.

Which is good for both Griffey and the Reds.

Jocketty can now move the organization forward with an eye towards the future without having to worry about the fallout from not picking up Griffey's $16-million option this offseason. The next generation—a core consisting of Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez and Joey Votto, among other young talented players—has arrived.

And while Griffey has finally stayed on the field enough to play in 102 games, all of the injuries, age and declining bat speed have taken a toll. His swing is still a thing of beauty, and he has brought back many happy memories on each of his classic 15 home run strokes. However, he has only produced a line of .245/.355/.432, posting a low OPS (.787) for a right fielder.

Although Griffey made a rather insulting gesture to announcer Jeff Brantley last week—when hitting a home run, no less—about his option for next year, it would not have been in the Reds’ best interest for them to pick it up. He has done many great things in the past, but, at 38 years old, he is no longer a star and will only continue to decline. He is always a risk to get hurt, of course, and was almost certainly unlikely be part of the next truly great Cincinnati postseason team. Essentially, the franchise would have been crazy to bring him back at such a high price. In his eyes, the organization owed it to him he made it seem with his actions, perhaps as a favor for taking less money before.

Handing out favors and keeping the manager—Dusty Baker, who is close with Junior—happy are nice. Wins, and a potential future postseason run, are better.

Griffey is no longer the same Gold-Glove-caliber outfielder, either. To put it simply, he has lost not only one step, but two. Crashing into walls will do that a man.

Which makes the American League, where he can receive at-bats at designated hitter, an ideal place for him.

Going to Chicago, Griffey will also benefit for other reasons as well. The White Sox are the favorite to bring home the American League Central division crown. Wearing the black and white, he has the chance to play for a winner for the first time since his days with the Mariners. Back then, Randy Johnson was the best pitcher in the game, A-Rod had not yet mingled with Madonna and Joey Cora, his new bench coach, was still playing a mean second base.

While it is uncertain where he will play, he was smart to sign off on the deal and reunite with his old pal, Cora. However, the White Sox’s outfield is set in all three spots—with Jermaine Dye in right, MVP candidate Carlos Quentin in left and Nick Swisher in center—and DH Jim Thome (.885 OPS, 19 homers) is having a nice season in his own right. So, it remains to be seen how much of and where he will make an impact in the Windy City.

Hypothetically speaking, Swisher, who is not a true center fielder, may move back to first base. This will potentially send struggling first baseman Paul Konkerko (.661 OPS, nine home runs) to the bench on occasion. But can Griffey still handle such a demanding position? With a playoff berth at stake, it might not be worth the risk. His range has declined, he has not played there on a regular basis in two years and it remains to be seen if he can physically handle the rigors of the position.

Still, Griffey, who hit 30 home runs and posted an OPS in the mid-.800s in 2007, could make a nice comeback to help Chicago in its quest to reach the postseason. Moving into the other league, he is a candidate to regain his power stroke with the chance to turn a nice performance down the stretch into a multi-year contract this winter. Also, the White Sox essentially gave up nothing to acquire his services, sending reliever Nick Masset and Triple-A second baseman Danny Richar back to the Reds. Masset is a typical major league bullpen arm who is easily replaceable. Richar, a 25-year-old middle infielder, projects as only a backup to Brandon Phillips.

Either way, Griffey is closer to a ring with the White Sox than he ever has been with the Reds.

By getting his contract off the books, though, Cincinnati is now closer to playing meaningful baseball games in the future as well.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

5 Comments | Add a comment   categories: Cincinnati Reds, Ken Griffey Jr., Chicago White Sox, Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, Nick Swisher, Carlos Quentin
 
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ABOUT ME


RaysDigest
Tyler Hissey recently graduated from Eckerd College in St. Petersburg, Florida, with a degree in business administratio
n. In addition to this blog, he covers Major League Baseball, focusing on the Tampa Bay Rays, for the up-and-coming
sports network Scout.com, and his work there is frequently syndicated on Foxsports.com
. To access his work, go to RaysDigest.co
m. In addition to his writing, he is a frequent guest on the Sports Cafe with Sean Duade on Sarasota FM 1220, where he serves as an MLB contributor. Prior to working at Scout, Hissey covered the Rays and Cincinnati Reds for MVN.com, better known as the Most Valuable Network. Before his brief stint with MVN, he wrote over 30 sports articles as a lead columnist at WeTalkSports.
com, a role which he filled during the summer of 2006. A Dean's List student at Eckerd, he was also nominated for the college's Writing Excellence Award during the 2006-2007 school year. To reach him, send an email to TylerHissey@g
mail.com.
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