The Milwaukee Brewers are reportedly close to offering CC Sabathia a five year, $100-million deal.
For the Brewers, as a mid-market franchise, this is about as high as they can go. Anything more would not be in the best interest of the organization, given their limited revenue stream.
However, the market for Sabathia will enable him to generate a substantially greater number, in dollars and years. The Milwaukee offer on the table, then, is more than likely a feigned attempt to keep the fan base from getting upset for not making a real effort to keep him.
Which is eerily similar to the Los Angeles Dodgers' alleged, but not confirmed, two-year $60-milllion contract proposal for slugger Manny Ramirez before the start of the World Series.
Clearly, the Brewers know that Sabathia is going to reject the offer, but now they can unequivocally say that they made a hard push to bring him back. As great as the left-hander was—11-2, 1.65 ERA in 17 starts—a team with their financial limitations should never tie up such a large percentage of its payroll into one player, especially a starting pitcher.
Milwaukee has an excellent farm system, a solid young core at the major league level and some of the brightest stars under 25 in the National League. GM Doug Melvin knew this when he pulled the trigger and made the trade with the Cleveland Indians this summer, acquiring Sabathia as pure rental, plain and simple, to help the club end its long postseason drought.
Well, it worked, helping to generate a buzz about the team in the Wisconsin area as the Brew Crew reached the October playoff tournament for the first time since 1982.
The rental is over now, however. Sabathia has to be returned to Blockbuster, or the free-agent market, and is likely going to sell his services to the highest bidder.
Ben Sheets will bolt for more money as well.
Even with a dramatically different roster, though, do not be surprised to see the Brewers back in the mix again in 2009. They are doing the right thing here, sticking with their plan from July, and will cash in on compensation picks when their two star pitchers bolt for big dollars this winter. In fact, one could make the case that the money on the table may potentially cripple the long-term health of the franchise if an agreement is reached, even if Sabathia were to remain dominant and healthy for the duration.
Sabathia Market: There are not too many teams that have the financial resources to realistically make a run at Sabathia. The favorites at this point appear to be the Dodgers, depending on what route they decide to take with Ramirez, and the New York Yankees. From right here, it looks like Sabathia will end up in the Bronx, providing the Yankees with a clear-cut ace at the front of their rotation. New York is moving into a new stadium, which will increase their already unparallel revenue stream. In addition, there is a ton of money coming off the books, giving Brian Cashman a lot of room to work with. If it comes down to a bidding war, no team will be able to match the Bombers, who could end up with several of the premier free agents on the market, including slugging first baseman Mark Teixeira.
But, now that Game 5 has finally ended, what are die-hard baseball fans going to do with their time?
Well, to some people, the season is only now beginning—the Hot Stove season, that is.
Several big-time players are available on the free-agent market, from sluggers Manny Ramirez and Mark Teixeira to record-setting closer Francisco Rodriguez and stud left-hander CC Sabathia.
Here is a list of the potential Type A free agents, courtesy of Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors.
Sabathia, it seems, is going to sell his services to the highest bidder, which will undoubtedly be the New York Yankees. The Yankees are moving across the street into New Yankee Stadium, which will generate even more revenue stream for the game’s ultimate financial superpower.
The Yankees’ rotation has some question marks, as Mike Mussina, who won 20 games, is expected to announce his retirement later this week, and the status of Andy Pettitte is unclear. Also, since the Phil Hughes/Ian Kennedy experiment did not go according to plan this year, the Yankees will almost certainly make a splash in the pitching market. Even if they fail to sign Sabathia, who was unbelievable for the Milwaukee Brewers down the stretch, count on them to make a solid push at several other Type A starting pitchers listed above.
The Yankees are also reportedly planning to pursue Teixeira as well. Jason Giambi’s stint in the Bronx appears to have come to an end either way, unless he decides to take a massive pay cut in a short-term deal.
Some other interesting names include Burnett, Burrell, Dunn and Lowe.
Burnett won 18 games, but his peripheral statistics all declined.
Burrell, who hit a huge double in the Phillies’ clinching Game 5 win last night, has excellent on-base skills and is coming off a decent season in which he hit 30-plus home runs. Although he has some deficiencies in his overall game, especially his poor defense and lack of speed, expect several organizations to make a serious run at him. He has spent his entire career in Philadelphia, but he seems ready to test the market, and it might not be in the Phillies' best interest to bring him back, anyway.
The Boston Red Sox have a big decision in regards to the status of Varitek, the captain. He had a down offensive season, posting a sub-.700 OPS, and was practically a guaranteed out in the second half. He is still a valuable defender behind the plate, however, and does a great job handling a pitching staff. A Scott Boras client, he will likely demand a lucrative, multi-year deal. There is no question that is value has diminished, though, and he may no longer be strong enough offensively to serve as a full-time catcher in the majors. If Theo Epstein can bring him back at a discounted rate, it would be wise for them to do so. He could share catching duties and help mentor a young backstop. Unfortunately, there is not a lot of catching depth in the Boston farm system, making it likely that Epstein will attempt to make a deal for a young catcher this offseason, regardless of what they decide to do with the veteran.
It is definitely going to be an exciting offseason, and there is no telling which players yet which uniforms several big-time stars will be wearing next season.
Two things are almost certain, though.
1. Boras, who represents Ramirez and Teixeira and several other stars, is only going to get richer, with a number of his clients due to receive lucrative deals.
2. The Yankees are going to reload by throwing big dollars at the best talent available, which is going to make the A.L. East all the more competitive.
Since I do not really want to focus on a particular subject right now, I am going to pull a Mark Kriegel, focusing on various random topics in the baseball world.
—According to Jon Heyman of SI.com, the New York Yankees want to sign at least two of the three premier free agent starting pitchers on the market—A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe and CC Sabathia.
Although Sabathia has said that money will not be the ultimate factor that drives a decision for him, I have a difficult time taking him at his word. Sabathia has said all the right things to the local Milwaukee media, but he is going to follow the money. And, since the Yankees have unlimited financial resources to work with (especially when moving into a new ballpark), there is no team that can match them in a bidding war. Also, Sabathia recently shot down the rumors that he is interested in returning to California. He certainly could end up in a number of other potential cities, but New York—with the Mets as a slim possibility—seems like the best bet.
Lowe, a Scott Boras client, has had a nice season for the Los Angeles Dodgers, posting a 3.24 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 34 starts. Using his excellent sinkerball, the 35-year-old right-hander went 7-3 with a 2.38 mark after the All-Star break, limiting hitters to a .226 batting average in 87.0 innings. He has also pitched well in the postseason to this point, picking the right time, for Boras and his bank account, to find his groove on the mound.
Burnett has not told the Toronto Blue Jays if he will opt out of his contract—yet. Odds are, though, this will happen fairly soon, leaving him as a realistic option for Brian Cashman and the Yankees. He won 18 games in Toronto in 2008, but posted a higher ERA (4.07) than his career average (3.81). The 31-year-old right-hander is also always an injury threat, but can miss bats as well as anyone in the business—231 Ks in 221.1 innings pitched. If I were a betting man, I would say that he will be pitching in the Pinstripes next year alongside Sabathia, not Lowe.
—The Chicago Cubs picked up the option on Rich Harden’s contact yesterday. This was the right decision by the Cubs. While Harden is always at risk of injury, he is a dominant pitcher when he is healthy enough to pitch. Since coming over to Chicago in a midseason trade with the Oakland Athletics, he posted a 1.77 ERA while striking out 89 in 71.0 innings pitched. Jim Hendry was not left with a lot of time to make a decision, sure, but he made the right choice—a recent test showed that he had no structural damage in his right shoulder.
Stay away, Troy.
—There is a lot of talk about whether or not Troy Percival will be put on the Tampa Bay Rays’ ALCS roster. Well, if it were up to me, I would say, no. Percival is a veteran who has World Series experience, two factors which have led several mainstream analysts and writers to talk about how he is an essential piece to the puzzle and needs to be on the roster. To their credit, he certainly has had a tremendous positive impact on several of the Rays’ young talented arms, all while helping to instill a culture of winning in the clubhouse. However, based on his performance in the second half—6.11 post-All-Star break ERA, 16 walks in 17.2 innings pitched—and an obvious decline in his command and stuff, Joe Maddon can no longer trust him with a lead late in the game. Period.
The closer-by-committee group of Grant Balfour, who throws absolute smoke, Chad Bradford, one of the best groundball specialists in the games who practically never surrenders home runs, and Dan Wheeler has a better chance of getting the job done in the ninth inning with the game on the line. So, whoever says that this relief method does not work, think again—talent is the secret ingredient, though.
So while the talking heads will give the bullpen advantage to Boston, which does have a better pure closer in Jonathan Papelbon, not having a healthy Percival is not that big of a deal. Even if the veteran righty is healthy, he does not deserve to be pitching important innings at this stage of the season.
Picks for the upcoming series—
Although anything can happen in a short series, I will offer up my picks for the upcoming LCS in each league.
American League—
Throw the experience argument out the window right now. Despite what they say on TBS, the Rays will not be intimidated by the Red Sox. It really comes down to talent more than anything else, but all of the talk about heart and such makes for a more compelling story to some journalists.
If Tampa Bay could not handle the pressure, though, would they have won the AL East? Every time these two teams met up in the regular season, it seems, the same stories would show up about how the young, pesky Rays would fade under the pressure.
Well, they did not, outlasting the Red Sox to win baseball’s most competitive division.
With that being said, too many people are also focusing on how the Rays won the regular season series, 10-8. Well, throw that argument out the window, too. This time last week, everybody in the media was talking about how the Los Angeles Angels dominated Boston all year as well, and look how that series turned out.
One thing is for sure, though. These teams have battled it out all year, and it is going to be an exciting series.
Boston has the better offense, in my opinion, and are always a threat to hang up a 13-spot like they did off of Scott Kazmir in September. They led the league with a .358 on-base percentage, meaning that they will force Tampa Bay pitchers to throw strikes. And they have so many guys—from MVP candidates Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilus to Big Papi—who can cause tremendous damage with one swing of the bat.
But the Rays’ pitching staff has shown that they are up to the challenge. James “Big Game” Shields will start Game 1 like he did in the Division Series. Shields is likely to last until at least the seventh inning, which will be good for his bullpen with Scott Kazmir—who labors and has had trouble making it through five lately—taking the hill in Game 2. If he can turn in a quality start—perhaps similar to his complete game shutout against Boston back in April—and the Rays can jump out to an early series lead, they may never look back.
Daisuke Matsusaka, similar to Kazmir, has not been efficient with his pitches. The Rays need to make him throw strikes, showing sound plate discipline, because when he does throw it over the plate, he is tough to hit (lowest opponents’ batting average in the majors).
The other pitching matchups are equally as intriguing. Which Kazmir will show up? The guy who was so dominant in June and July or post-All-Star break Kaz?
Jon Lester has been excellent in the postseason, and has really emerged as a frontline starter. Lester, in fact, seems to be the ace of the Boston staff right now. It will be tough for Tampa Bay to scrape runs across against him. Ditto for Josh Beckett, who had a down year but is still one of the best big-game pitchers in the game.
Matt Garza, though, can shut any offense down on any given night in his own right.
All-in-all, the pitching matchups seem pretty even—though Andy Sonnanstine is a better fourth option than Tim Wakefield.
The Rays have the better defense—having converted more balls put into play into outs than any other team in the majors—and I think the edge in bullpen.
So, while anything can happen (cannot stress this enough), I choose the Rays if they can continue to throw strikes, catch the ball and get the timely hits, from nearly everyone on the roster, like they have been doing all along.
The key for them, though, is to get into the Boston bullpen early and often. Papelbon is lights out, but the link to the controversial closer has been a problem at times. Manny Declaremen and Justin Masterson have helped a great deal in the second half, but the Rays will have an easier time scoring runs off the likes of Mike Timlin than a Beckett or Dice-K or Lester.
Another X factor to be considered is homefield advantage. Both the Rays and Red Sox are much better at home than on the road. Tropicana Field has been kryptonite for Boston in ’08, albeit in a small sample size, and the Rays had the majors’ best record at home. Still, the Red Sox were not too far behind, as they love playing in front of the hometown crowd at Fenway Park—a tough environment to play in for an opposing team.
Since the series starts at the Trop, where the Rays are 20-2 in games with 30,000-plus fans in attendance (the cowbell effect), they have the edge in this regard. But, though they took two out of three at Fenway in September, winning at least one game on the road will be quite a challenge.
It is going to be exciting, but, due to all of the factors and my tremendous bias for the new pride of St. Pete (though my cousin plays in the Red Sox organization), I am going with the Rays. In seven.
National League—
I am a bit lazy to make a case right now, after going on a seemingly endless tangent about the ALCS, but I think the Philadelphia Phillies will take the cake in the series.
Cole Hamels is a stud, though he does not have the mid-90s heat. Brad Lidge has been a stud all year, having converted 41 saves in 41 tries. And the Phillies also have a number of great relievers to bridge the gap to Lidge.
Plus, Ryan Howard has been on an insane tear since September. Howard, the NL leader in homers and RBIs, has posted a ridiculous .1000-plus OPS over the past 30 games, picking the right time to get hot while doing enough in 30 days to enter the MVP conversation.
Pat Burrell can mash as well. Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins do a nice job of setting the table. And, in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, they are going to score some runs.
Sinkerball pitcher Lowe will negate some of that, but I like the Phils at home, and see them taking at least one game in Los Angeles.
Manny Ramirez is on fire, too, Rafael Furcal is back, the Dodgers’ pitching has been excellent and the matchups favor the flavor of the month in the NL. But I am not buying into them yet.
Sure,they made fools out of the best team in the NL last week, and Man-Ram is playing on a whole other level. The Phillies, however, were the better team all year, in a tougher division.
Grant
Paulsen, who has been an accredited member of the national media since
he was a teenager, has already made his mark in the broadcasting
industry although he has yet to graduate from college and is not old
enough to legally drink in this country. Paulsen, 20, is perhaps the
Jay Bruce of sports journalism, having covered the Little League World
Series and Super Bowl for ABC Sports on several occasions. He has also
appeared on the David Letterman show six times. A student at George
Mason University in Virginia, he is currently the host of Minors and Majors, a two-hour weekly show focusing on Major League Baseball and its minor league prospects on XM Radio.
Grant
recently offered his opinions about the latest news and notes around
the league in an interview with Tyler Hissey for Scout.com.
TH:
Grant, thanks for finding the time to answer some questions about all
that is going on in the Major League Baseball season. Let’s get to it.
The Los Angeles Angels
are one of the best run-prevention clubs in the game, with an excellent
defense and pitching staff. The Angels also have a strong bullpen led
by K-Rod, who is on pace to set the single-season saves record. The
offensive situation, on the other hand, has been a cause for concern,
and the addition of switch-hitting slugger Mark Teixeira will undoubtedly help add another impact bat to protect Vladimir Guerrero. Does the trade make Los Angeles the favorite to win the AL?
Grant:
Adding Mark Teixeira was monumental for the Angels. They desperately
needed a bat - and preferably a big one - and they got it when they
traded for him. Their deep pitching staff, ranked eighth in all of
baseball, gives them a chance to win each night, and they are a top-10
team defensively as well. The only area in which they needed to upgrade
was at the plate, and in getting Teixeira they were able to add power
to a lineup that has hit 49 fewer home-runs than teams like the Marlins
and Phillies have this season.
Even if Teixeira proves to be
only a late-season rental, which I think could very well be the case, I
won't disagree for a moment with what the Angels decided to do. He is a
career .285 hitter who can hit his club 35-homers a season and play a
terrific first base. With a team like Los Angeles for the long-haul I could see Tex becoming an annual MVP candidate in the American League. They gave up Casey Kotchman,
who is a nice enough major leaguer, and a decent relief pitching
prospect in hard-throwing righty Stephen Marek. But they got a guy back
who makes them the number-one contender for the title (if I can use a
wrestling term). That's what the Angels are now. They are the top
contender in the AL, and I would be surprised if they aren't in the ALCS.
TH: The Braves certainly went for it all last year, giving up a promising package of prospects—including Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison
and Jarrod Saltalamacchia—to make a run. However, they finished further
out of the division than they were at the time of the acquisition, even
though Teixeira put up some monster numbers down the stretch. In
Kotchman and Marek, GM Frank Wren got about as much as he could have at
this point, certainly more than the club would have received had it
waited for the compensation picks. Still, it seems, they were burned in
the long run. Do you agree? Will teams use this as a lesson before
making similar deals at the deadline?
Grant: I
think that teams might. I've always felt like GMs should ask themselves
only one question before giving up multiple prospects who could
eventually help their club for just one veteran major leaguer. If he
(the guy they are trading for) comes over and plays like an MVP, can we
win the World Series? If the answer is yes, then I am okay with those
trades. If the answer is no, then I don't like the idea. Especially if
a team is just renting a guy like the Braves were with Teixeira last
year, and like the Brewers are this year with CC Sabathia. I didn't
like the Teixeira deal last year, and I wasn't a huge fan of the
Sabathia deal. If he pitches them into the playoffs, though, I will be
okay with the fact that they parted with future All-Star Matt LaPorta.
TH: On an off note, what are the odds that some Angles fans make another Teixeira tribute video on YouTube?
Grant:
I feel like another video is coming soon. From the same guys who
brought us Mark Teixeira I, comes a second and even more epic offering!
Haha. Perhaps the release date will be set for some time in late
October.
TH: As of this writing, David Price
is 9-0 combined between the Single-A Vero Beach and Double-A
Montgomery. Do you see Price making an impact this season? If so, do
you think he will turn into this year's version of Joba Chamberlain, coming out of the bullpen, or will he crack the Tampa Bay rotation should Edwin Jackson or Andy Sonnanstine falter?
David Price (AP)
Grant:
Price is a stud. The guy is going to be 23 later on this month and he
could have been getting big league hitters out as of halfway through
his final college season at Vanderbilt
a year ago. He popped at 99 in his first outing as a pro during spring
training this season, and his breaking pitches are already big-league
ready. He's going to be a star front-line arm for many years to come,
and I could see him and Scott Kazmir being the game's top one-two punch in baseball in a couple years.
With that all said, I think that he will be used in the bullpen down the stretch this season. That will be the best way for Tampa Bay
to get his feet wet against major league hitters. He also had a minor
arm injury earlier this spring, which could make the Rays want to pitch
him out of the pen as a way of keeping his innings count down a little
more efficiently, all while still trying to get production out of his
electric arm.
If he is used out of the pen, I could see him
performing a lot like Joba Chamberlain did last season. His 2007
efforts were something of a once-in-a-decade time promotion, but if
anybody could duplicate that type of start to a career, I think Price
is that guy. I could see Price repeating that type of dominance down
the stretch. He could fortify an already much-improved bullpen and be a
big lift for Tampa Bay
down the stretch. Unfortunately for the Rays, though, he isn't going to
help them hit any better, which is the only phase of the game that they
aren't very consistent with.
TH: I recently wrote a contenders piece for the American League. Which four teams from the league do you see making it to the postseason and why?
Mark Teixeira (AP)
Grant: At
this moment I have the Angels, Red Sox, and White Sox winning the West,
East, and Central, respectively. I rank them in that order because that
is the order of my confidence in each of those teams to capture a
division crown.
The Angels, with the acquisition of Teixeira and the re-emergence of Ervin Santana as a front-line arm, are my pick to represent the AL in the World Series.
I think Boston is better today than it was a week or two ago as well, though. Jason Bay will give them everything Manny Ramirez
did offensively, more defensively, and he'll do it all without creating
any problems or causing any headaches for his new coaching staff. I
think that Jed Lowrie is an upgrade for them at shortstop as well, and I could see him becoming Boston's Dustin Pedroia of this year in the next couple of months.
The
other kind of Sox get terrific pitching and have more power bats than
they know what to do with. I just don't know how much I trust some of
the unproven arms in that rotation (John Danks and Gavin Floyd among them) down the stretch. Getting Ken Griffey Jr. should provide them with a nice boost, though.
My
wild card pick right now is the Rays. They have a deep enough rotation
to win any series they play in, they play great defense and they can
manufacture enough runs - as the AL leaders in thefts - to mask their
anemic team batting average.
TH: Personally, going by their poor run prevention (inexperienced pitching staff and bad infield defense), I do not see the Florida Marlins making the playoffs out of the NL East. They have a negative run differential after all, and, though the Arizona Diamondbacks
made it to the playoffs after scoring fewer runs than their opponents
last fall, I just do not think it is in the cards for the Fish. Do you
agree? If so, who do you think will come out the East?
Grant:
I agree with you on the Marlins. The peripherals just don't add up to
them being a playoff participant (but don't tell the 2007 Diamondbacks
that). The best thing about the Marlins is that they aren't supposed to
win right now. They are loaded for the future, thanks largely to the Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis trade this offseason, and they were able to hang on to most of their top prospects at the trade deadline. I'm a Gaby Sanchez
guy, but he projects more as a backend-arm than an ace, and he was the
only major subtraction from their future core. I think they could keep
playing on the plus side of .500, but I don’t' see them doing much more
than that the rest of the way. Then again, I didn't see them competing
at all this year, so what do I know?
TH: There has certainly been a lot of attention centering around the Milwaukee Brewers’ acquisition of CC Sabathia, though the Brett Favre drama has taken away some of its thunder. Sabathia has energized that clubhouse, adds a legitimate ace alongside Ben Sheets at the top of the staff and is now the best-hitting pitcher in the league with Micah Owings’
demotion to the minors. With that being said, do you think the Brewers
will make the postseason for the first time since the Robin Yount era?
Grant:
The Brewers are my current pick to win the National League's wild card.
Sabathia is one of those guys who can go seven-innings and give his
team a chance to win on a bad night. That's the mark of a true ace, and
he's proven to be just that over the years. He might be baseball's best
pitcher if he ever played an entire season in the NL. The big fella
would just be dominant. And Ned Yost will not have to pull him out of
games for a pinch hitter, because he's proven that he can wield the
wood.
Milwaukee is a better team than St. Louis and Florida, and they are better than any of the clubs in the NL West. With that said, they'll be contending with either Philadelphia or New York
(whoever doesn't win the East) for the wild-card spot, at least in my
insignificant and probably inaccurate projection. I think they stack up
well with either of those two teams. The bottom line is that they had
better get to the playoffs. If they don't, then I really don't like the
trade at all. If they do I wouldn't be shocked at all if they got to
the World Series, considering that they would have Sheets and Sabathia
to throw at teams back-to-back. But they have to get there first, and
in order to do that they need to start playing better defense (they are
11th in the NL in fielding percentage).
TH: Before we end the interview, give us the names of a few prospects to look for when rosters expand in September.
Grant:
Dave Price is the main guy to look out for. He could very well change
the American League East landscape, not just this season but over the
next several years.
In addition to him, the guy I am most excited about seeing is Andrew McCutchen in Pittsburgh. He's going to get a chance at some point in August, or maybe September, to roam the outfield at PNC Park. He's got more tools than Tim Allen and he's been making his way up through the ranks in a "Jay Bruce"
kind of way since the two were drafted real close to each other out of
high school back in 2005. I can't wait to see what he does in his first
dose of action with the Pirates. He's an electrifying talent who can
contribute in a plethora of different ways and baseball fans in the Steel City are in for a treat.
Cameron Maybin is another guy I want to get another look at. I liked what I saw from him in Detroit
last season, but I didn't get enough of him. Maybin getting sent to
Double-A this year was like dangling candy in front of me and telling
me I couldn't have it.
Matt LaPorta and Travis Snider could both also get late-season calls in Cleveland and in Toronto,
respectively. I'd be giddy to get a first-glimpse of either of those
two slugging outfielders in 2008. Both project as lineup-altering
boppers and each should one day find their way onto an All-Star team.
TH: Thanks for taking the time out of your busy schedule, Grant. Keep up the excellent work on XM Radio.
For more info on Grant and his work on XM radio, click here.
The ballots are in. Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Corey Hart and Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria are headed to the 2008 All-Star Game at Yankee Stadium. Hart, a budding superstar, and Longoria, the leading candidate for the American League Rookie of the Year, benefited from strong election campaigns all across the Internet, edging out the competition to earn their first All-Star invitations.
With a record 47.8 million votes cast, baseball fans clearly enjoy this new voting feature. However, as is the case with the selection process for starters and reserves—where the coaches, players and fans all struggle to make decisions in an imperfect process—the fans do not always make the right decisions on the final ballot. If you disagree, look at the case of Jason Varitek, who will make an All-Star appearance despite his slash stats line of .220/.300/.360 and OPS+ of 73. Varitek, in fact, is struggling to make contact right now, and certainly did not deserve his selection.
Did the fans get it right in choosing Hart and Longoria, though?
Longoria is a deserving candidate, taking into consideration his role in the Rays’ recent surge to the top of the American League East standings. A smooth-fielding defender at third base, he has delivered enough walk-off hits to make David Ortiz jealous, emerging as the top rookie position player in the league. He is batting .281/.354/.525 with 16 home runs and 53 RBIs, and sits atop the leader board in nearly offensive statistical category among AL third baseman.
With the mainstream media’s recent infatuation with the Rays and a strong campaign sponsored by the organization, this decision was almost inevitable, forcing the former first-round pick to cancel a trip to Las Vegas with his buddies. It looks as if this will be the first of many All-Star trips for Longoria, who is leading Tampa Bay in homers and RBIs as well. For all that he has done for his team, in addition to his contributions in all facets of the game, it is hard to disagree with the fans’ final vote selection here.
Dye has enjoyed a fine season to this point in his own right, slugging .550 with 20 home runs in 86 games. The Chicago White Sox outfielder, who has picked up the slack for several of his fellow veteran teammates, ranks ninth in the league in OPS (.902), fourth among outfielders, and is one of only four players on the circuit with 20-plus homers. He has been a key cog in the White Sox’s lineup, producing big hits while Paul Konerko (.679 OPS, eight home runs) and Jim Thome (.846 OPS) have struggled to get things going at the plate.
The performance of Dye and Carlos Quentin, who was acquired in a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks this offseason and is leading the club with 21 jacks and 65 RBIs, is a major factor why Chicago currently resides in first place in a division that was expected to be one of the deepest in baseball. He is on the wrong side of 30 and struggled in the first half of 2007, causing Chicago to put him on the trade block only months after he produced one of the finest campaigns of his entire career last summer. He turned it around in the second half of '07, though, batting .298/.368/.579 for the White Sox, who then decided to sign him to a two-year extension. So far, it looks as Kenny Williams’ decision to keep Dye, who has fared better against right-handed pitchers so far, is justified, as he turned in an All-Star first half. Really, he has performed like an All-Star as well, perhaps even more so than Longoria.
Whether the mustache or the gold thong has anything to do with it, the 37-year-old Giambi is enjoying a nice bounce back season as well. After a foot injury sustained in May of last season sidelined him for several weeks, he did not provide the Yankees much of anything, finishing the year with a line of .236/.356/.433 while earning more than $20-million. Then, after a poor April, it looked as if his days as productive slugger were nearing the end. With the Yankees’ interest in soon-to-be free agent Mark Teixeira, Giambi’s days in New York seemed numbered as well. Since the infamous thong story broke, however, he has helped carry the New York offense, coming up with several crucial hits while Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez were on the DL and Robinson Cano was lost at the plate. Giambi, tied with Rodriguez for the team-lead in homers (18), now has the sixth-highest OPS (.925) in the league.
Despite a valiant effort, however, the American Mustache Institute failed in its attempt to create enough buzz to get Giambi elected onto the team.
Then there is Roberts, who is among league leaders with 102 base hits, 32 doubles and 25 stolen bases. One of the most productive offensive second baseman in the game, he has posted a line of .291/.372/.481, for one of the highest OPS (.853) totals at the keystone. A solid defender up the middle, he is one of the most underrated players in the game, truly. He has, however, been gunned down on the bases nine times in 34 tries. Regardless, the Orioles, enjoying surprising success, are lucky that they kept onto Roberts, who was nearly dealt to the Chicago Cubs this winter. As is the case with Giambi, it is easy to make the case for him as well, because he delivered an All-Star caliber first half.
Guillen finished last in the final ballot voting, perhaps because he plays in Kansas City. Well, two smaller markets—Milwaukee and Tampa Bay—got their players elected, so there goes that argument. Rather, it seems, the fans actually determined (correctly) that Guillen is undeserving of an All-Star bid. Since calling out his teammates earlier this spring at the height of the Royals’ inability to score runs, he has had his moments. He is leading the club with 13 homers and is among AL leaders with 65 RBIs. Overall, though, he has made far too many outs this season. A direct result of his inability to draw bases on balls (he has only 10 walks while striking out 67 times), his .298 OPS is nothing to write home about, bringing his OPS down to .768, hardly an All-Star mark. In fact, he does not place in the top 40 in the league in OPS, even sitting behind an aging teammate, second baseman Mark Grudzienlak, who is batting .314/.367/.419 for the fourth-place Royals.
Kansas City has a -63 run differential, and only three AL teams have scored fewer than its 386 runs scored as a team. While the performance of his former team, the Seattle Mariners, has made the Royals seem like an offensive juggernaut, Bill Bavasi was right to decline Guillen’s option for 2008. He had a nice season in ’07, batting .290/.353/.460 with 23 home runs and 93 RBIs in spacious Safeco Field, but reports of performance-enhancing drug use put that performance into question. While he hits for some power occasionally, he does not get on base enough, has had a questionable past, and his first half was not All-Star worthy.
It looks as if the fans did a nice job in the American League, but it would be hard to argue with any of the first four aforementioned players.
Hart is a nice player who should play a huge role in the postseason push for Milwaukee, which acquired an ace in left-hander CC Sabathia earlier this week. He does not, however, deserve to be an All-Star, at least not for 2008. The Kentucky native has certainly been a key cog in the Milwaukee offense, posting a .510 slugging percentage with 43 extra-base hits, including 15 homers, and 57 RBIs. He has also swiped 15 bases in 18 chances. Still, though, his .842 OPS is good for 28th in the National League, which makes it tough to choose him over Burrell or Wright.
It is definitely a good sign that the Brew Crew faithful helped get their guy elected, and hopefully the excitement level among the Milwaukee fan base will remain this high down the stretch.
Burrell deserved to get picked here, as he has been a force for the Phillies, who are currently in first place in the National League East. Burrell, fourth in the league in OPS (.993), has been one of the premier performers with the bat on the Senior Circuit to this point, slugging .581 with 22 homers and 54 RBIs. The former Miami star has had an up-and-down tenure in Philadelphia, which is why he is such a polarizing player among the Phillies’ fan base. This season, though, he is putting it all together at the right time—he is in a walk year—taking advantage of playing in Citizen’s Bank Park.
The Phillies recently locked up closer Brad Lidge, but it would not be a surprise if Burrell’s days in the city of Brotherly Love come to an end once the season is over. He was perhaps the biggest snub for the Mid-Summer Classic, though, and it is disappointing that he will not be playing in the Bronx on Tuesday night. In fact, if not for the brilliant play of Lance Berkman, Chipper Jones, Albert Pujols and teammate Chase Utley, Burrell might be getting some strong consideration for first-half MVP in his league. At the very least, he deserves to represent the National League, and it was a surprise that he was not selected by the coaches or players.
Burrell has undoubtedly had the most impact on his team of any of the candidates, but ended up finishing third out of the five. National League manager Clint Hurdle still has one decision left, and the Phillies slugger could end up as the replacement for injured outfielder Alfonso Soriano, who will be replaced in the starting lineup by Matt Holliday.
Wright is having a bit of a down year by his standards, but has still played well enough to confirm his place as perhaps the best player the age of 25 or younger in the National League. He is batting .288/.386/.511 with 17 home runs and 70 RBIs. Wright, a defensive stud who deserved to win the MVP award last year but paid the price for his teammates’ September woes in the eyes of the voters, may have just been snubbed again. While Chipper Jones’ monster first half led to an easy decision for the fans, Wright (.897 OPS) has been equally as valuable to the New York Mets as Aramis Ramirez (.900 OPS) has been to Chicago Cubs. If the Mets make a surprise push to supplant the Phillies in the NL East—they will have to, because the Wild Card will probably come out of the Central—he will again merit consideration for MVP.
Rowand, at 30 years old, is close to turning into a fourth outfielder in the near future, making the San Francisco Giants’ decision to offer him such a lucrative deal fairly puzzling.
This season, though, the gritty outfielder has provided one of the only bright spots for the anemic San Francisco offense, batting .296/.362/.453 with 26 doubles and eight home runs. Regardless, he has not performed like an All-Star, and it is unlikely that the veteran outfielder will do so ever again. A two-time Silver Slugger Award winner, Lee could add another silver bat to his trophy case if he continues to perform in the second half. He is batting .293/.345/.548 with 21 homers and 72 RBIs, helping pack punch in the middle of the Astros’ lineup alongside Berkman. All-in-all, Burrell and Longoria seem like the most deserving of the bunch, though the American League provided a far more difficult decision.
This had to help Longoria, who had #### Vitale on his side.
Update: Hurdle selected Wright, not Burrell, to take Soriano’s place on the National League All-Star roster.
On Saturday, I will be appearing on Sports Talk 1220 to discuss the All-Star game and the first-place Tampa Bay Rays at 3:20 P.M.
Milwaukee officially added the larger-than-life left-hander to its starting rotation on Thursday, sending three prospects—slugging minor league outfielder Matt LaPorta highlights the group—to the Cleveland Indians in exchange for Sabathia. Thus, it is evident that the Brewers are making a run at this thing right now.
In the weaker league, anything is possible, and Milwaukee strongly increased its chances of reaching the postseason by adding a front-line starter to join Ben Sheets at the top of its pitching staff. Headed into Sabathia’s debut, the Brewers are 49-40, four games back in the NL Central. Their +10 run differential, however, indicates that they have been lucky at times so far this year, causing me to label the club as a pretender in a recent second-half prediction article.
While many are skeptical of the impact that a single pitcher can have on a team, there is no question that the addition of Sabathia, entering the inferior league, dramatically improves the Brewers’ postseason chances.
The Chicago Cubs—the club responded to the Sabathia trade by acquiring Rich Harden, the oft-injured Oakland Athletics starter—are still the favorite in the division. With the best record and run differential (+112) in the league, the Cubs’ playoff chances remain strong.
The St. Louis Cardinals are in the mix as well. St. Louis is 50-40, despite a +10 run differential and the absence of ace Chris Carpenter and a recent injury to slugger Albert Pujols, who is enjoying another MVP-caliber season. Dave Duncan, it seems, has done it again, turning pitchers such as Kyle Loshe and Todd Wellemeyer into effective options in the Cardinals’ starting rotation. Ryan Ludwick has been a nice surprise as well, earning an invitation to the All-Star game next week after a monster first two months. Ludwick has posted a .944 OPS, batting .290/.367/.577 with 17 home runs and 58 RBIs entering Tuesday night. He has struggled recently, however, and his high batting average on balls in play points toward regression for him in the second half.
While St. Louis still has a strong chance—as every team in the West currently boasts a sub-.500 record—to take home the Wild Card, its odds of reaching the playoffs for the first time since the Cards surprised us all to win the 2006 World Series undoubtedly took a hit with the Brewers’ acquisition of Sabathia.
Also boding well for Milwaukee and St. Louis, the Florida Marlins and New York Mets appear to be pretenders. This means that is more than likely that the Wild Card ticket will be punched from the Midwest.
Sheets has been a true ace for the Brewers to this point, going 10-2 with a 2.77 ERA, 97-to-26 K/W ratio, 1.11 WHIP and an opponents’ line of .235/.275/.388. However, the risk of injury has always been an issue with Sheets, who, like Sabathia, will bolt for free agency once the season ends.
However, with Manny Parra, Jeff Suppan—recently sent to the disabled list—Dave Bush and Seth McClung—the former Tampa Bay Rays starter who has struggled in a relief role—the Brewers have some decent arms at the back of the pitching staff as well. Parra has limited hitters to a .743 OPS, going 7-2 in 18 starts. While his 3.65 ERA is a bit misleading, he is a solid piece to the Brewers’ rotation, and will need to pitch effectively down the stretch. McClung is unlikely to remain effective, and could be moved back into the bullpen when Suppan returns.
Therefore, the Brewers’ staff will now ride the back of Sabathia, who immediately becomes one of the strongest starting pitchers on the Senior Circuit—perhaps outside of Johan Santana. If he can remain healthy enough to make around 16 starts, he could really make a save the Brewers from giving up a lot of runs, as he will now have the luxury of facing the pitcher every nine hitters.
Along with Fausto Carmona, Sabathia pushed Cleveland into the postseason in 2007, going 19-7 with a 3.21 ERA and 65.2 VORP to edge out Josh Beckett and his teammate for the American League Cy Young Award.
After a poor April, Sabathia has returned to his dominant self recently, lowering his ERA to 3.83. His 6-8 record is misleading, too, as he has posted a stellar 123-to-34 K/W ratio in 122.1 innings for the Indians, who have now thrown in the towel for this season.
Sabathia is only one pitcher, though, and it is easy for some skeptics to point towards Santana, who has been the Mets’ strongest pitcher but has not dominated the National League in the fashion in which many expected he would. Sabathia and Sheets will not be with the Brewers next year, so the summer is crucial for Milwaukee, which has not reached the postseason since the Paul Molitor and Robin Yount era. While the playoffs are certainly not a sure thing, Milwaukee has officially improved upon its pretender status with the addition of Sabathia, who will now get to swing the bat as well. Considering he nearly hit a ball out of Dodger Stadium a few weeks ago, perhaps he will give Micah Owings a run for his money as the best slugging pitcher in the game.
The Brewers also have a strong core of offensive stars—led by Prince Fielder and last year’s Rookie of the Year, Ryan Braun—and will not struggle to score runs. Not to mention, Milwaukee is catching the ball better than ever before, as they has improved defensively as a team as well. Moving Braun, a butcher at third base, to the outfield has helped alot, especially in the infield. Milwaukee, in fact, now ranks 11th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency—the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs.
Indians' Side:
The centerpiece for Cleveland is Laporta, the seventh overall pick of the 2007 draft out of the University of Florida. Some scouts compare him to a right-hander version of Travis Hafner—one of the reason’s for the Indians’ inability to score runs—in his prime. At the time of the deal, he was among Double-A leaders with a .978 OPS, batting .288/.402/.576 with 20 home runs and 66 RBIs in the Southern League. Moving to Cleveland, he will get to switch back to the infield, and he has the skills to turn into a plus defensive first baseman. He has strong enough arm strength—he was once clocked at 88 MPH in the Cape Cod League All-Star game a few summers ago—to remain in the outfield, but will hit enough to remain at first base. Look for him in the Futures Game next week at Yankee Stadium, as he is one of the strongest bats on the USA squad’s roster.
Even with surprise dominance of Cliff Lee— my mid-season pick as the Cy Young in the American League—the Indians have struggled to score runs, posting a -6 run differential as of Tuesday afternoon. At the time of the trade, the Indians had posted a 37-41 record, 14 games back in the Central. Slugging catcher Victor Martinez, yet to hit a home run, has been hurt, an unhealthy Hafner, with a .677 OPS, appears to be on the decline and Grady Sizemore is the only regular with an OPS above .900. Sizemore, though, has been one of the premier outfielders yet again so far, hitting .269/.372/.541 with 22 home runs from the leadoff spot—do not get me started on this, he should be batting third—while playing his usual excellent defense in center field.
Tyler Hissey recently graduated from Eckerd College in St. Petersburg, Florida, with a degree in business administratio n. In addition to this blog, he covers Major League Baseball, focusing on the Tampa Bay Rays, for the up-and-coming sports network Scout.com, and his work there is frequently syndicated on Foxsports.com . To access his work, go to RaysDigest.co m.
In addition to his writing, he is a frequent guest on the Sports Cafe with Sean Duade on Sarasota FM 1220, where he serves as an MLB contributor.
Prior to working at Scout, Hissey covered the Rays and Cincinnati Reds for MVN.com, better known as the Most Valuable Network. Before his brief stint with MVN, he wrote over 30 sports articles as a lead columnist at WeTalkSports. com, a role which he filled during the summer of 2006.
A Dean's List student at Eckerd, he was also nominated for the college's Writing Excellence Award during the 2006-2007 school year.
To reach him, send an email to TylerHissey@g mail.com.